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This was copied elsewhere but I wanted to share it with everyone here.
Money Management: Staying in the Game
By: MREAST
The promises of instant wealth, the glorification of unrealistic expectations, have lured many into the realm of sports wagering. The hyped sports services that claim unrealistic winning percentages latch onto the gamblers that are in dire need of being bailed out. The sad fact of this reality is, most that need the bailing out have sharp enough eyes to stay in the game, but the perils of greed, and promises of instant wealth, tackles their bankroll, and lays them to rest among the many that tried. There are a few saving graces for the victims of the point spread. The first and foremost is sound money management. The second, and equally important, is having realistic expectations. Let me address the latter first. It is quite seductive to be drawn to the promise of doubling and tripling bankrolls with a self-proclaimed KING of handicapping, that spits out winners at the rate of 70% and higher. The man with the scouts at games, the inside information, the master of the line. The first lesson is to understand it simply isn't true. The truth is, if you follow the legitimate sports monitors (not the ones owned by the very same service making claims), most do not do well at all. The reason most fail is not from lack of ability, but lack of discipline when it comes to managing their bankroll. The very first thing I want to do is show you some very eye opening mathematical evidence for the above statement. I've known many a gambler to lose a game, then immediately double up, thinking the odds are in his favor to recover the loss. The next step is losing a second play in a row, and now the chase is on. It is seemingly unlikely to lose three in a row, so an even larger bet persues the first two losses. The longer the losing streak, the more desperate the chase. The final chapter in this sad, but often repeated scenerio, is tapping out. Here is why it is enevitable that the chaser (which comprises almost 90% of all gamblers) runs out of money:
Let's take a 500 bet sequence and when you see some of the statistical probabilities, it may awaken you to the fact that managing money is not only necessary, but essential to staying in the game. I'm gonna show you at 1% intervals some startling facts about losing streaks.
If you pick 51% winners in a series of 500 wagers it is statistically 100% likely you will encounter a losing streak of 5 games in a row. It is statistically almost certain you will lose 6 in a row (98% probability). It is statistically very likely you will lose 7 in a row (83% statistical probability). It is even 57% likely you will encounter a streak of losing 8 in a row! This is where the problem lies. The fact is, if your plays equal 100% of your bankroll in any 8 play sequence, you have a 57% statistical probability to tap out! The more likely scenerio is your bankroll will be so depleted, that it will not survive the next losing streak.
The fact is, even if your hitting at a comfortable 55% it is 100% likely you will encounter a 5 game losing streak in a series of 500 plays! 90% for losing 6 in a row, and even 64% for losing 7! A 60% winning percentage will still be met with losing sequences. It is 100% likely that even at picking 60% winners over 500 games will result in at least one 4 game losing streak, and 97% likely to result in a 5 game losing streak! It is 71% likely for a 6 game losing streak, and 39% likely to reach 7. The facts are that even with a 58% winning percentage it is 49% likely (almost even odds), that you will incur a 7 game losing streak.
Now that this point has been driven home, I hope you can see it may not be you’re a poor handicapper, it is likely you’re a poor money manager when it comes to sports wagering. The best bankroll manager will only allow 2-3% of his bankroll on any given play. The worst that could happen in the likely scenerio over 500 plays is he loses 7 in a row. He still has (at 3%), 79% of his bankroll, and will be in the game.
The final point is this. A sports season lasts around 3-5 months. Let's say your bankroll is 5,000.00 for the season. The number isn't important, but the percentage of growth is. The financial investor would be extremely happy with a 10% return over a 3-5 month period. The sports investor should also realize that adding 10% a season is just as good. That would put you in the top 10% of all handicappers!!!!!
Here is an example:
500 plays @ 55% = 275 winners and 225 losers bankroll of 5000.00 playing 3% a play or 45.00
225 x 45 = -10,125
275x 40.91 = =11,250.25
NET GAIN = +1,124.25 or over 22%!!!!
NOW INVEST half that winning margin and raise your bankroll into the next season with the other half!
The fact is under 54% will net you 10%!! It doesn't require anything but discipline. It is a marathon not a sprint. It is amazing how fast money grows when you do this for years! 54% WINNERS investing half after each season, and you will retire in 10 years with just a 5000.00 bankroll. Do the math! STAY IN THE GAME!
Money Management: Staying in the Game
By: MREAST
The promises of instant wealth, the glorification of unrealistic expectations, have lured many into the realm of sports wagering. The hyped sports services that claim unrealistic winning percentages latch onto the gamblers that are in dire need of being bailed out. The sad fact of this reality is, most that need the bailing out have sharp enough eyes to stay in the game, but the perils of greed, and promises of instant wealth, tackles their bankroll, and lays them to rest among the many that tried. There are a few saving graces for the victims of the point spread. The first and foremost is sound money management. The second, and equally important, is having realistic expectations. Let me address the latter first. It is quite seductive to be drawn to the promise of doubling and tripling bankrolls with a self-proclaimed KING of handicapping, that spits out winners at the rate of 70% and higher. The man with the scouts at games, the inside information, the master of the line. The first lesson is to understand it simply isn't true. The truth is, if you follow the legitimate sports monitors (not the ones owned by the very same service making claims), most do not do well at all. The reason most fail is not from lack of ability, but lack of discipline when it comes to managing their bankroll. The very first thing I want to do is show you some very eye opening mathematical evidence for the above statement. I've known many a gambler to lose a game, then immediately double up, thinking the odds are in his favor to recover the loss. The next step is losing a second play in a row, and now the chase is on. It is seemingly unlikely to lose three in a row, so an even larger bet persues the first two losses. The longer the losing streak, the more desperate the chase. The final chapter in this sad, but often repeated scenerio, is tapping out. Here is why it is enevitable that the chaser (which comprises almost 90% of all gamblers) runs out of money:
Let's take a 500 bet sequence and when you see some of the statistical probabilities, it may awaken you to the fact that managing money is not only necessary, but essential to staying in the game. I'm gonna show you at 1% intervals some startling facts about losing streaks.
If you pick 51% winners in a series of 500 wagers it is statistically 100% likely you will encounter a losing streak of 5 games in a row. It is statistically almost certain you will lose 6 in a row (98% probability). It is statistically very likely you will lose 7 in a row (83% statistical probability). It is even 57% likely you will encounter a streak of losing 8 in a row! This is where the problem lies. The fact is, if your plays equal 100% of your bankroll in any 8 play sequence, you have a 57% statistical probability to tap out! The more likely scenerio is your bankroll will be so depleted, that it will not survive the next losing streak.
The fact is, even if your hitting at a comfortable 55% it is 100% likely you will encounter a 5 game losing streak in a series of 500 plays! 90% for losing 6 in a row, and even 64% for losing 7! A 60% winning percentage will still be met with losing sequences. It is 100% likely that even at picking 60% winners over 500 games will result in at least one 4 game losing streak, and 97% likely to result in a 5 game losing streak! It is 71% likely for a 6 game losing streak, and 39% likely to reach 7. The facts are that even with a 58% winning percentage it is 49% likely (almost even odds), that you will incur a 7 game losing streak.
Now that this point has been driven home, I hope you can see it may not be you’re a poor handicapper, it is likely you’re a poor money manager when it comes to sports wagering. The best bankroll manager will only allow 2-3% of his bankroll on any given play. The worst that could happen in the likely scenerio over 500 plays is he loses 7 in a row. He still has (at 3%), 79% of his bankroll, and will be in the game.
The final point is this. A sports season lasts around 3-5 months. Let's say your bankroll is 5,000.00 for the season. The number isn't important, but the percentage of growth is. The financial investor would be extremely happy with a 10% return over a 3-5 month period. The sports investor should also realize that adding 10% a season is just as good. That would put you in the top 10% of all handicappers!!!!!
Here is an example:
500 plays @ 55% = 275 winners and 225 losers bankroll of 5000.00 playing 3% a play or 45.00
225 x 45 = -10,125
275x 40.91 = =11,250.25
NET GAIN = +1,124.25 or over 22%!!!!
NOW INVEST half that winning margin and raise your bankroll into the next season with the other half!
The fact is under 54% will net you 10%!! It doesn't require anything but discipline. It is a marathon not a sprint. It is amazing how fast money grows when you do this for years! 54% WINNERS investing half after each season, and you will retire in 10 years with just a 5000.00 bankroll. Do the math! STAY IN THE GAME!
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