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It seems funny to me that in the Gonzaga game the total went from 153 to 155.5 with San Diego forward and leading scorer Vounang questionable. Why are people still betting the over? Something funny going on here. IMO.
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the line is moving in gonzagas direction too when I see most people on san diego. -
So it looks like the smart money is all over this game. It will be a good one to keep an eye on.Comment
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SD average 65 points on the road. Zaga gives up 63 points at home.
Gonzaga averages 85+ points at home. SD gives up 81+.
Assuming SD scores 64, as 34 point dogs Zaga projected score is 98 points.
98-64 = 162 points. It's possible Vegas adjusted the line 9 points but the public betting is increasing the total.Comment
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Not sure what is going on with this line the stardust opened at 32 but looks like at 8:20 pst I think they adjusted 33 1/2 due to movements in smaller shops I think due to the injury.
You are right though the total is very curious as I see it going up at one place 3 points in ten minutesComment
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smart do you use don best to track line movements?Comment
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49er
yea I use a few differant sources but a good one if you are interested in line history is to sign up for jim heists offshore connetion. some times they dont update quickly so tough to rely on but worth checking outComment
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what else do you use?Comment
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San Diego lost by 12 the first time these two squared off in San Diego on 1/29/04. I can see a 21 point swing between being at home and the injury. But, then again, I am a big believer in the lapses college kids get when playing a weak team. 33+ is just too much to lay in this spot. I can see the line at 35 by game time.
I'll take my chances with SD and the points!!
Good luck,
The Ham mer"You're only as good as the effort you put forth!!"
Sports-Plays.comComment
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49er,
I have been using this system about 4 years. Some people have huge books on stats and trends. I have a book online movement trends. I use don best to figure out when there is a movement then I check the line history to see times and how big. Then I will reverse handicap to figure out why a line is moving. I will check differant school articles and such. I will check injury reports.
Doing this system for so long there are certain teams you will see the line moves are correct and certain are not. last night for example we released the suns as our game of the week wise guys were on phoenix why the had lost 10-12 and marbury was retuning the public was all over the nyk. Conversely the steam on the lakers we layed off because we figured the money was public due to a false sense of revenge. And as I checked my book steam on the lakers rarely hits. But, steam against the lakers hits a very high percentage.
If you follow don best there are so many you have to narrow it down.
This is what I have on this line.
when line moves on or against gozaga 1 1/2 points or more 0-3 this season.
I'm not sayin to bet s.d but gonzaga line moves are 0-3 this year. last week the line dropped 1 1/2 in tulsa direction loser.
if you ever have a question or want my opinion on a line move visit my site and drop me an email.
http://www.smartmoneysports.orgComment
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good luck sportComment
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