NCAA (Monday)

[MemphisMafia]

Niagara 15-7 @ Fairfield 15-9 [ pk (144.5) ]

Niagara : 10-8 ats [ 4-1 ats away ] 82.5 pts away / + 5.8 pts away / + 6.7 avg. / 44% fg / 33% 3pt / 14 tovers per / 82 to 75 avg / [76*]

Fairfield : 15-7-2 ats [ 5-2 ats @ home ] 73 pts home / + 6.7 home / + 1.7 avg / 41% fg / 35% 3pt / 14 tovers per / 66 to 65 avg [77*]

Niagara lost by 10 to the Stags earlier this season [@ home ]

I feel that Niagara was caught with thier pants down earlier in the year and even though the Stags are a tough team @ home at a pick I have to follow Niagara here . The 155.5 pts per game will be slowed a bit because of the talent level here but I dont think a 11 pt drop is called for [ over ]

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N.D. 12-9 @ Syracuse 16-5 [ - 7.5 (146.5) ]

N.D. : 9-9 ats [ 4-3 ats away ] 72.2 pts away / - 0.8 away / + 2.4 avg / 42% fg / 35% 3 pt / 11 tovers per / 71 to 69 avg [ *79 ]

Syracuse : 6-12 ats [ 3-8 ats home ] 77.7 pts home / + 10.5 home / + 7.1 avg / 47% fg / 32% 3 pt / 12 tovers per / 76 to 69 avg [ 86*]

N.D. lost by 9 @ home earlier

N.D. was in a fog earlier this season and is playing far better ball now , the Cuse are not jack the giant killer @ the house anyway and we will take the 7.5 afforded us by the books , the total is just 3 pts below thier avg and we will float a small wager on the under here

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Furman 13-10 @ W. Carolina 11-11 [ - 1 (142.5) ]

Furman : 12-4 ats [ 8-1 ats away ] 69.8 pts away / +0.1 away / + 7.4 avg / 45%fg / 35% 3 pt / 15 tovers per / 74 to 67 avg [ 72* ]

W. Carolina : 8-6-2 ats [ 2-4 ats home ] 80.0 pts / + 14 @ home / + 4.5 avg. / 47% fg / 33% 3 pt / 19 tovers per 76 to 69 avg [ 77* ]

Furman + 1 , strictly because they are road warriors , both these teams like to run it and the 149.8 avg for them is close but we feel
that a over is possible and will go small there



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E. Tenn. St. 21-4 [ - 17.5 (135.5) ] @ Citadel 4-19

E. Tenn. St. : 8-8-3 ats [ 6-3 ats away ] 75.3 pts away / + 5 away / + 10.2 avg / 45% fg / 34% 3 pt / 17 tovers per / 78 to 68 avg [ 76* ]

Citadel : 2-13 ats / [ 0-8 ats home ] 62.2 pts home / -8 home / - 14 avg / 37% fg / 29% 3 pt / 16 tovers per / 58 to 72 avg [ 59* ]

E. Tenn St. is a no-brainer pick against a team that is well below the national avg in every stat , total is on the money here and way to close for comfort
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UNC Wilmington 12-11 @ Delaware 14-9 [ - 2 (125) ]

UNC Wilmington : 7-11-2 ats [ 5-5 ats away ] 60.2 pts away / - 1.8 away / + 3.7 avg / 41% fg / 33% 3 pt / 13 tovers per / 62 to 59 avg [ 73* ]

Delaware : 10-9 ats [ 4-4 ats home ] 74.4 pts @ home / + 5.5 home / + 2 avg / 16 tovers per / 72 to 70 avg [ 77* ]

UNC Wimington won 50 to 49 earlier @ home

Pay back time here and Delaware squeeks out a small victory , the total shows a 10 pt cushion for a small over play
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Canisius 9-15 @ Rider 14-10 [ -5 (134.5) ]

Canisius : 8-9-3 ats [ 6-4 ats away ] 64.2 pts away / - 3.7 away / - 3.7 avg / 42% fg / 36% 3 pt / 14 tovers per / 67 to 71 avg. [ 66* ]

Rider : 8-12 ats [ 4-6 ats @ home ] 68.8 pts home / + 0.5 home / + 0.2 avg / 41% fg / 34% 3 pt / 13 tovers per / 69 to 68 avg [ 70* ]

Canisius lost 65 to 71 @ home earlier

All though it will be a small play I amm going with Rider here , total is dead nuts and a no play
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Elon 9-14 @ U.T. Chattanoga 14-9 [ - 13 (154.5) ]

Elon : 9-6-2 ats [ 4-6 ats away ] 62 pts away / - 18.4 away / - 6.2 avg / 42% fg / 34% 3 pt / 18 tovers per / 67 to 73 avg [ 65* ]

U.T. Chatt. : 10-8 ats [ 3-5 ats @ home ] 89.7 pts @ home / + 14.8 home / + 7.6 avg / 50% fg / 38% 3 pt / 17 tovers per / 83 to 76 avg [ 79* ]

The away and home avgs show a great chance for U.T. Chatt to get the co-v-er here . Elon loses by 18 per and U.T Chatt wins by 14 per so we are goint to war with U.T. Chatt here , a 151.7 scoring avg is to close for comfort here
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Miami Oh. 12-8 @ Ball St. 10-11 [ - 1.5 (120.5) ]

Miami Oh. : 8-8 ats [ 3-3 ats away ] 60.8 pts away / - 1.4 away / + 2 avg / 39% fg / 29% 3 pt / 11 tovers per / 61 to 59 avg [ 75* ]

Ball St : 10-8-1 ats [ 6-4 ats @ home ] 75.9 pts @ home / + 7.6 @ home / + 0.4 avg / 41% fg / 34% 3 pt / 13 tovers per / 70 to 69 avg / [ 78* ]

Miami lost by 6 @ home earlier 50 to 56

Two evenly matched clubs , but my lean is Ball St here and I favor a under because they play good stall-ball as witnessed by thier earlier score
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Boston College 16-8 @ Seton Hall 16-6 [ - 9 (135) ]

B.C. : 11-8-1 ats [ 5-3 ats away ] 67.4 pt away / - 0.8 away / + 3.6 avg / 46% fg / 33% 3 pt / 13 tovers per / 70 to 66 avg [ 78* ]

Seton Hall : 12-6-1 ats [ 7-2 ats @ home ] 77.3 pts @ home / + 15.7 @ home / + 9.5 avg / 46% fg / 36% 3 pt / 13 tovers per / 73 to 63 avg [ 89* ]

B.C. won 72 to 63 @ home earlier

Pay back time again but I feel that 9 is to many to lay to a team that is no slouch , Seton will win this game but the total looks far more inviting because of the 10 point cushion afforded us by the Vegas Gods , we go over here
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Fla. Inter. 3-18 @ Arkansas St. 14-7 [ - 18 (123.5) ]

Fla. Inter. : 3-11-2 ats [ 2-6 ats away ] 56.9 pts away / - 17 away / - 11.8 avg / 39% fg / 28% 3 pt / 19 tovers per / 57 to 68 avg [ 58* ]

Ark. St : 8-7 ats [ 2-5 ats @ home ] 80.3 pts @ home / + 9.6 @ home / + 4.9 avg / 44% fg / 34% 3 pt / 15 tovers per / 73 to 69 avg / [ 77* ]

Fla. Inter lost 46 to 55 @ home earlier

Look closely at Fla. Internationals stats and you would think that this team belongs in the pee-wee nationals , just horrible numbers and giving the ball up about 20 per doesnt help matters any either. The fact that they played keep-away in the loss at home has really got the books fooled in this one and I think they dropped the total to far as we have a 12 pt underlay here so we go over here and leave the side alone
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Okla St 19-2 [ - 1.5 (127.5) ] @ Okla. 16-5

Okla. St : 9-7 ats [ 4-3 ats away ] 73.4 pts away / + 4 away / + 17.7 avg. / 52% fg / 40% 3 pt / 14 tovers per / 79 to 61 avg [ 89* ]

Okla. : 6-9-1 ats [ 3-4 ats @ home ] 71.5 pts @ home / + 17.1 @ home / + 7 avg / 40% fg / 32% 3 pt / 14 tovers per / 67 to 60 avg [ 87* ]

Okla St. won 77 to 56 @ home earlier

Tough call here , and even though Okla. St has a tail-off in thier scoring on the road one cant help but notice that a trap is in play here . A total of 127.5 vs a scoring avg thats 144.9 ? O.K. we bite it over here & a small play on St.
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Utah 19-5 [ - 3 (127.5) ] @ Wyoming 9-13

Utah : 12-8 ats [ 4-5 ats away ] 60.2 pts away / - 3.7 away / + 9 avg / 48% fg / 40% 3 pt / 14 tovers per / 65 to 56 avg [ 80* ]

Wyoming : 4-15-1 ats [ 4-5 ats @ home ] 74.6 pts @ home / + 12.8 @ home / + 2.9 avg / 45% fg / 36% 3 pt / 15 tovers per / 70 to 68 avg [ 79* ]

Utah won 60 to 49 @ home earlier

Utahs win of 11 @ home earlier seems to easy to bite the lay here , but we will and another thing is Wyoming plays far better pretaining to scoring at home and a over looks right here .
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BYU 15-7 [ - 5.5 (138) ] @ Colo. St. 11-11

BYU : 11-8 ats [ 3-6 ats away ] 62.4 pts away / - 4.3 away / + 8.8 avg / 47% fg / 34% 3 pt / 14 tovers per / 72 to 64 acg [ 80* ]

Colo. St. : 11-11 ats [ 2-3 ats @ home ] 80.6 pts @ home / + 9.7 @ home / - 1.3 avg / 46% fg / 35% 3 pt / 19 tovers per / 70 to 71 avg [ 79* ]

Colo. is 2-9 ats vs good shooting teams of 45% or better this season . Avg. score Colo. 61 to 74
Colo. is 1-5 ats vs slow-down teams that avg 53 shots or less this season . Avg score Colo. 55 to 70
Colo. is 1-7 ats in home games in Feb. last 3 years . Avg score Colo 69 to 76
Colo. St is averaging 6 less points and 7 more turnovers vs common opponets than BYU
Colo. St. lost 82 to 53 @ BYU on 1/17/04
4* Play against - underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 (Colo. St.) after a over in games involving two avg. offensive teams (67 to 74 pts) which happened @ Utah for Colo. St last game , a solid 45-15 ats last 5 seasons.

Play : BYU - 5.5

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

870 - 642 - 41 ATS / YTD ( and its a bit better than that but I dont count unposted plays here )

[MemphisMafia]

Baseball :

my annual report is being typed up and I will put it up soon , lots of real good details in it to feast on .

Hope everyone had a + Day !

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[MemphisMafia]

Changed my mind :

About the BYU @ Colo. St games and the reasons are stated above , to many things favoring the Cougars !

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[hazsupport]

byu

Does that mean byu isn't a 4* play? I'm easily confused!!!!! hc

[MemphisMafia]

hazsupport :

No it isnt a 4* play , just a 4* rating when its precentages are that high . The ratings only go to 6* when referring to a stat or trend so its above normal for sure and it isnt affected by Nelsons playing or not.

Just a solid play with good numbers on its side , I dont do 10* or GOY haz you know that I just research my plays and let the room know when I find one that has strong numerical evidence to support it.

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[Tigger]

Mafia

So you like BYU chalking 5 1/2. I'm actually in the middle of taking some time off, but still keeping up with the games and plays. If this is a good enough one to "get in on" then reply back and I may throw a lil down on it, thanks again.

~~~ Tigger

[tpng]

Please clarify!

MMM,

Your analysis was very impressive, but I am not sure that I got your picks right. Please let me know if the following are correct (if you do play):

Niagara +2 & over 144.5

ND +7.5 & under 146.5 (small)

Furman +1 & over 142.5 (small)

E. Ten St -17.5

Delaware -2 & over 125 (small)

Rider -5 (small)

Chatt -13

Bal St -1.5 & under 120.5

BC +9 (?) & over 135

Fla. Inter over 123.5

OK St. -1.5 & over 127.5 (?)

Utah -3 (?) & over 127.5

Play: BYU -5.5 (I love this format)

Thank you in advance.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Nice stuff.

Thanks

BB

[savage1]

Memphis-I have not seen better analysis anywhere along with the supporting stats. You are a whiz!

[frankb03]

Love the analysis. Thanks!

[buzzer beater]

Great analysis!! Thanks

[FastBreak]

MEMPHIS MAFIA

Memphis,

Thank-you for the well reasoned post.
As the Brits would say....."Simply Brilliant".
Let's procede to the PAY-OUT WINDOW.

Thanks for the
FB:tongue:

[Homer]

Good Luck today MMM

[shorty3830]

MMM

that is why you are who you are, could any of us provide that solid anaysis?? i doubt i could

great help when i am trying to figure out who to play

b

[MemphisMafia]

Replys :

Tigger : I rate it as a solid play , nothing fancy just solid . Hope you use your time wisely and enjoy it for sure !

savage1 : I thank you for your your constant level-headedness and approach to this crazy world . I use so many publicly accessable information data bases to make my decisions , some require fees but most are free and very helpful in our quest. They rank from the mundane to the really hot info sites and are part of my make-up when capping a game and looking for the pluses that push us over the top.

frankb03 , buzzer beater , Billy Barooooooo : thank each of you for noticing the time involved to share this with you all , and I do this daily all though its not always posted this way but the same thought and work goes into it everytime I choose a wager .

FastBreak , I was wondering if you saw my reply to your asking about the " Big Dance " at the Bradley Center ?

If not scroll back to the post and check it out !

tpng :

I list my plays so you can better understand how I see these games and my thought process ;

Niagara ] PK ** over *
N.D. ] + 7.5 ** under * ( Billy Edelin & Torin Francis out )
Furman ] + 1 ** over *
E. Tenn. St. ] - 17.5 ** ( Citadel has suspended a player )
Delaware ] - 2 ** over *
Rider ] - 5 *
U.T. Chatt. - 13 *
Ball St. ] - 1.5 ** under *
B.C. / S.H. ] over **
F.I. / Ark. St ] over **
Okla. St ] - 1.5 ** over *
Utah ] - 3 ** over *
BYU ] - 5.5 ** ( C Nelson is doubtful )

Homer , I really dont know why I bother to cap these things when I can easily just follow you & wayne & EZ & poboy & Wiz & and some very sneeky others that I have noticed are picking up the pace lately around here.

We need to give another parlay a shot again soon and tomorrow looks pretty fair for some games ? [ let me know ]

G.L.

***MMM***

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