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**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 10:06 AM

Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bills +3.5 (ML +150) vs. Dolphins, 56-26
Giants +1.5 (ML +105) vs. Cowboys, 23-19

The largest favorites to cover

Ravens (-13) at Bengals, 38-3
Chargers (-7) at Chiefs, 38-21
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Falcons, 44-27
Saints (-6) at Panthers, 33-7
Packers (-4.5) at Bears, 35-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an 'under' (44.5) ticket in the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns game, you were extremely unhappy by the end of the afternoon. The Browns fired out to a 7-0 lead early in the first quarter, but there was no more scoring in the opening 15 minutes. And we didn't have another touchdown until there was just 3:48 left in the third quarter, as the Browns took a 17-9 lead.

So with 26 total points on the board, that's a good thing, right? Well, Jarvis Landry scored on a 3-yard touchdown run just three seconds into the final quarter, pushing Cleveland's lead to 24-9. The Steelers responded with a Mason Rudolph to Chase Claypool scoring hook-up from 28 yards out with 10:07 to go, making it 24-16. Under bettors were still in good shape until there were 83 ticks left on the clock in regulation. Rudolph hit JuJu Smith-Schuster on a scoring play with 1:23 to go, cutting Cleveland's lead to 24-22, pending the two-point conversion. If you were holding a Steelers money line ticket, which would have paid +360, it was a tough finish, but you weren't really on the right side until the feverish fourth quarter comeback, so you cant complain too vehemently. But the 20 total points in the fourth quarter were a raw deal for under players.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Over (43.5) bettors in the Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants game were feeling pretty good about themselves, as the teams combined for 29 points in the first 30 minutes, with New York taking a 20-9 lead into the locker room at halftime.

The scoring slowed to a crawl in the third quarter, with only an Ezekiel Elliott 1-yard touchdown run to make it 20-16 in favor of the Giants. Over bettors were closing in on a winning ticket, but for the first time all day they were barely on pace. A 36-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein sliced the lead to 20-19 with 14:16 to play, so surely we're get five more points, right? Well, Graham Gano nailed a 50-yard field goal with 6:27 to go, making it 23-19, but that's exactly how it would end up.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 17 was the New York Jets-New England Patriots (40.5) game. We had a 14-14 tie going into the fourth quarter, but that's when Cam Newton erupted for a pair of touchdown strikes to Devin Asiasi and Sony Michel. It wasn't a bad beat, or anything close to it, as the over was on the board by 11:42 to go in the fourth quarter. But it was still a raw deal nonetheless.

The highest total on the board this week was in the Tennessee Titans-Houston Texans (55.5) game on Sunday. It started out just 3-3 after 15 minutes, and it looked like maybe we'd have an 'under' result. It turns out that the oddsmakers weren't even close with their total of 55.5. We have a total of 20 points in the second, 33 points in the third and 20 points in the fourth, as the teams tossed up a total of 79 points in the 41-38 win by Tennessee.

As far as primetime games were concerned, there was just one this week -- Washington Football Team-Philadelphia Eagles (43.5). The teams combined for 31 points at halftime, with WFT leading 17-14. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and then head coach Doug Pederson made the curious move of replacing QB Jalen Hurts with QB Nate Sudfeld. The Giants, and their fans, didn't love that. They needed a Philly win to get into the playoffs. Over bettors didn't love it, either, as both sides struggled to move the ball in the final 30.

For the regular season the under is 28-19-1 (59.5%) across 48 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Colts and Bills did not meet during the regular season. Buffalo streaks into the playoffs on a six-game win streak, and they have cashed in eight in a row. The Bills offense has also scored 24 or more points in nine consecutive games since Oct. 25, when they scored just 18 in a win over the New York Jets on Oct. 25.

Indy won in Week 17 against Jacksonville, and received help, ironically from the Bills, to get into the playoffs. Buffalo topped Miami to vault Indy into the seventh seed. The Colts closed 4-1 SU in the final five, but they failed to cover in each of the past three. The offense has been strong lately, too, going for 24 or more points in each of the past eight outings.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The division rival Rams and Seahawks will meet for a third time this season. Seattle won at Lumen Field by a 20-9 count in Week 16, covering a 1.5-point number as the 'under' (47.5) connected. L.A. won 23-16 on Sunday Night Football back in Week 10, as the Rams covered as three-point favorites in another 'under' result.

There will be a lot of uncertain on this game, as far as the lines, due to injuries. QB Jared Goff is expected back after missing the must-win regular-season finale after thumb surgery. But he could very well miss if he doesn't heal properly. WR Cooper Kupp was on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, missing Week 17, and his status is up in the air. If the Rams get Goff, Kupp and all of their others back, that's obviously huge. OT Andrew Whitworth also might be able to return from a long-term injury to help out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Game (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Tom Brady and the Bucs face the NFC East champs in D.C. in a 5-4 game. Despite the lower seed the Buccaneers opened as a touchdown favorite, one of just two road favorites in the wild-card round. Washington ended the regular season 1-2 SU in their final three, and 0-2 ATS in the final two, while the 'under' cashed in five straight to close out the season.

The Bucs tossed up 91 total points in the final two weekends, as their offense is on fire. They won four in a row, and went 4-1 ATS down the stretch in the final five. Tampa Bay has also scored 24 or more points in each of the past seven, although the 'under' is still 3-2 in the past five. Watch WR Mike Evans and his status, as he hyperextended a left knee in the finale. An MRI showed no structural or ligament damage, which is good, but he is still a question mark.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET)

One of the more intrigued games on the wild-card schedule might be the Baltimore-Tennessee game. These teams met in Baltimore back on Nov. 22, with the Titans coming away with a 30-24 in overtime. These teams also met in the divisional playoffs last season, with the Titans winning 28-12 on Jan. 11 in Baltimore, so we have quite a nice little rivalry budding here.

The Ravens had to win to get in Sunday, and they pounded Cincinnati 38-3 to win for the fifth straight time. They also enter the playoffs on a 6-0 ATS run. Titans RB Derrick Henry became the eighth player in NFL history to run for 2,000 or more yards in a single season, and he helped the Titans go 3-1 SU in the final four, although they were just 2-3 ATS in the final five.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The Bears lost 35-16 in the finale at home against the Packers, but they received help to get into the postseason. They will meet the New Orleans Saints, perhaps in front of fans, depending on what the state of Louisiana decides. These teams met in Week 8, with the Saints winning 26-23 in overtime on a Thursday night. Chicago covered a 5.5-point number as the 'over' (41) cashed in that one. Chicago ended their season 3-1 SU/ATS in the final four, with the 'over' hitting in each of the final three. New Orleans won and covered the final two games, averaging 42.5 PPG.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

We covered what happened in the finale. Cleveland and Pittsburgh meet for the third time this season, and the third time in the postseason in the history of this rivalry. These teams met in Jan. 2003, with the Steelers winning 36-33.

Cleveland ended the season just 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS across the final four outings. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch with a 1-4 SU mark, and they covered just twice in the final six contests. Pittsburgh enters the playoffs with the worst winning percentage across the final five games than any other team in the postseason field.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 10:25 AM

AFC Wild Card Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the AFC Championship will begin next weekend in the Wild Card Round as six teams will look to advance to the NFL Divisional Playoff Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs will have the first weekend off as the defending Super Bowl Champions earned the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Seeds two through four are the division winners while five, six and seven are the Wild Card teams.

AFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups

1 Seed - Kansas City Chiefs (First Round Bye)
2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Indianapolis Colts
3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 6 Cleveland Browns
4 Tennessee Titans vs. 5 Baltimore Ravens

Odds to Win AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs -120
Buffalo Bills +350
Baltimore Ravens +650
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
Tennessee Titans +1300
Indianapolis Colts +1500
Cleveland Browns +1800

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts

Date: Saturday January 9
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV-Time: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bills -6.5, Total 52.5

Indianapolis Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U
Buffalo Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

Handicapping current form and this year’s production will be a necessity between these teams since they don’t have much recent history. The Colts defeated the Bills 37-5 in the 2018 regular season, when Andrew Luck was the starting quarterback for Indianapolis. The pair also met in 2017 and Buffalo captured a 13-7 home win.

The home team has won six straight in this series, dating back to 2006. Total bettors should make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

Playoff Notes

The Bills have made the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons but the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. In the most recent games, Buffalo was competitive but it fell to Houston 22-19 last season and Jacksonville 10-3 in 2018. The ‘under’ cashed easily in both of those games.

After missing the postseason last season due to the abrupt retirement of the aforementioned Luck, Indy is back in the dance. The one trend to keep in mind with the Colts focuses on the total as the team is on a 5-0 run to the ‘under.’

The new QB in Indianapolis is Philip Rivers, who owns a 5-6 all-time record in the postseason during his time with the Chargers. Of those five wins, three did come on the road and make a note of this. Rivers was a perfect 4-0 in Wild Card games and his last two wins were outside of California.

Tennessee vs. Baltimore

Date: Sunday, January 10
Venue: Nissan Stadium,
Location: Nashville, Tennessee
TV-Time: ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Ravens -4, Total 54.5

Baltimore Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Tennessee Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-1-1 O/U

Head-to-Head

The 4-5 matchup in the AFC will feature a newly heated rivalry as the Titans and Ravens square off. In last year’s Divisional Playoff round, Tennessee humbled Baltimore 28-12 as a 10-point road underdog.

Fast forward to this season and the Titans captured another road win in Maryland over the Ravens, a 30-24 overtime victory in Week 11. Tennessee was a six-point underdog in this contest.

The visitor has won the past three meetings in this series, which could bode well for Baltimore if you believe the trend will continue.

Playoff Notes

This will be a rare home playoff game for the Titans, the last occurrence coming in the 2008 playoffs and coincidentally Tennessee dropped a 13-10 decision to Baltimore in the Divisional round.

The Titans have gone 3-2 both SU and ATS in their last five playoff games, all taking place on the road. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 as well and defense has been a major catalyst for Tennessee in those games. In the losses, the Titans allowed 35 PPG while just 15.3 PPG in the wins. This year’s defensive squad for Tennessee would need to improve quickly if it wants to get in the two-touchdown neighborhood.

Baltimore has yet to win a playoff game with QB Lamar Jackson under center, going 0-2 the last two years and both games took place at home. The Ravens were held to 12 and 17 points in the setbacks.

Playing on the road in the postseason has proven to be better for head coach John Harbaugh and Baltimore have gone 8-5 in playoff games away from home, which includes a Super Bowl win in 2013. Digging deeper, Baltimore is 4-0 in Wild Card games on the road under Harbaugh and the offense has averaged 30 PPG.

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

Date: Saturday January 9 or Sunday, January 10
Venue: Heinz Field
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5, Total 47

Cleveland Road Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Pittsburgh Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

Quick rematch game here as Cleveland (-10) defeated a short-handed Pittsburgh squad 24-22 this past Sunday to clinch a playoff berth. In the first regular season meeting in Week 6, the Steelers blasted the Browns 38-7 as three-point home favorites.

Including those results, the home team has gone 6-0-1 in the last seven encounters between the two teams. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run over the last two regular seasons.

Playoff Notes

The Steelers haven’t been in the playoffs since 2017 when they dropped a 45-42 home decision to the Jaguars. Including that loss, Pittsburgh is just 1-2 in its last three home playoff games. However, the Steelers have gone 2-0 in their last two Wild Card matchups and the defense has only surrendered 15 PPG which has led to an easy pair of ‘under’ tickets.

Not much playoff history for Cleveland, who hasn’t participated in the postseason since 2003. Sure enough, their last playoff game came against Pittsburgh and it was a wild one as the Steelers captured a 36-33 shootout victory over the Browns at home. For those who forget, QB Tommy Maddox outdueled his counterpart Kelly Holcomb.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 10:26 AM

NFC Wild Card Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the NFC Championship will begin next weekend in the Wild Card Round as six teams will look to advance to the NFL Divisional Playoff Round.

Seeds two through four are the division winners while five, six and seven are the Wild Card teams.

After losing in the NFC Championship last season, the Green Bay Packers own home-field advantage in the NFC as they are the top seed at 13-3.

NFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups

1 Seed - Green Bay (First Round Bye)
2 New Orleans vs. 7 Chicago
3 Seattle vs. 6 L.A. Rams
4 Washington vs. 5 Tampa Bay

Odds to Win NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers +160
New Orleans Saints +275
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450
Seattle Seahawks +450
Los Angeles Rams +1200
Chicago Bears +3300
Washington Football Team +3300

Matchup - Chicago vs. New Orleans

Date: Sunday, January 10
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV-Time: CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Saints -9.5, Total 48

Chicago Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U

Head-to-Head

The Saints edged the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 8 in overtime, 26-23. Chicago managed a cover as 5.5-point home underdogs, while the total sailed 'over' 41 points. Saints' quarterback Drew Brees threw for 280 yards in the victory, as New Orleans kicked four field goals and scored two touchdowns.

Playoff Notes

This marks the first time in three playoff meetings between these two teams that the game will take place in New Orleans. The Bears beat the Saints in the Wild Card round in 1990, while eliminating New Orleans to capture the 2006 NFC championship, 39-14.

New Orleans is in the playoffs for the fourth straight season, while winning each of its last three Wild Card contests. Chicago is making its second postseason appearance since 2011, as the Bears were squeezed by the Eagles in the Wild Card round in 2018 by a 16-15 count.

Matchup - L.A. Rams vs. Seattle

Date: Saturday January 9
Venue: Lumen Field
Location: Seattle, Washington
TV-Time: FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Seahawks -5, Total 43

Los Angeles Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U

Head-to-Head

These two NFC West rivals split a pair of meetings with the home team winning each time. The Rams knocked off the Seahawks in Week 10 at SoFi Stadium, 23-16 as three-point favorites, while staying 'under' the total of 55.

Seattle picked up revenge in Week 16 with a 20-9 triumph over Los Angeles as 1.5-point favorites to win the division title.

Playoff Notes

Seattle is in the playoffs for the eighth time in the last nine seasons, as the Seahawks have won their postseason opener in six of their past seven opportunities. In the only other postseason matchup between these clubs, the Rams eliminated the Seahawks, 27-20 in the 2004 Wild Card round.

The Rams are making their third postseason appearance in the past four seasons under head coach Sean McVay, as Los Angeles advanced all the way to the Super Bowl in 2018 before falling short against New England, 13-3. In the only road postseason contest under McVay, the Rams edged the Saints in overtime, 26-23 of the 2018 NFC Championship.

Matchup - Tampa Bay vs. Washington

Date: Saturday January 9
Venue: FedEx Field
Location: Landover, Maryland
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5, Total 46.5

Tampa Bay Road Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U
Washington Home Record: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U

Head-to-Head

Tampa Bay and Washington did not hook up this season, as the Football Team beat the Buccaneers, 16-3 as 3.5-point road underdogs in their previous matchup in 2018. Alex Smith led Washington past Tampa Bay that day, but obviously Tom Brady was not with the Bucs at the time. Brady torched Washington in 2018 as a member of the Patriots in a 33-7 rout at FedEx Field as 15.5-point favorites, while throwing three touchdown passes.

Playoff Notes

For the 18th time in his career, Brady has made the playoffs, while taking the Patriots to the Super Bowl in four of the past six seasons. Last season ended with a dud in a 20-13 home loss to the Titans in the Wild Card round, as this is the first time in Brady's career that his team is beginning the playoffs on the road.

The Buccaneers ended a long playoff drought by qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay last won a playoff game in 2002, which happened to be in Super Bowl XXXVII against the Raiders.

Washington has lost four consecutive playoff games dating back to 2005, when it actually beat Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round, 17-10. In 2012 and 2015, Washington won the NFC East title but ended up losing its first playoff contest by falling to Seattle and Green Bay, respectively, each by double-digits.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 10:31 AM

NFL Wild Card Odds: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Moves
Patrick Everson

The NFL regular season wrapped up Sunday, and NFL Wild Card playoff odds are on the board and getting action. Among the highlights are two games pairing division rivals, with the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday, and the host Pittsburgh Steelers getting an immediate rematch with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Wild Card Weekend opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Wild Card Round Odds

Colts at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -6.5, Over/Under 52.5

Why the line moved
There was some thought that Buffalo might not go all out in Week 17 to nab the AFC's No. 2 seed. A 28-point second quarter en route to a 56-26 victory over Miami squelched that thought, and the Bills now won't have to face top-seeded Kansas City prior to the AFC Championship Game.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis clinched the seventh and final AFC playoff spot with a 28-14 victory over Jacksonville.

"We took a $40,000 parlay of Bills -6.5 to Ohio State +8 last night," Murray said Monday morning of Buffalo-related action right out of the gate. "The Bills opened -6.5, and everyone was betting Buffalo, so we went to -7."

The total dipped a tick to 52 early Monday morning for the opener of Saturday's three-game playoff slate.

Rams at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
The Seahawks ended up getting the NFC's No. 3 seed, but sure didn't look like they wanted it for much of Sunday's game against the 49ers. Seattle, facing third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard, led 6-3 at halftime and trailed 16-6 after a San Francisco touchdown in the first minute of the fourth quarter.

But the Seahawks pulled it together by scoring the next 20 points – three touchdowns, the first of which had a missed extra point – and hung on for a 26-23 victory. Meanwhile, the Rams found a way to win and secure a wild-card spot, despite not having QB Jared Goff (thumb). Los Angeles slogged to an 18-7 home victory over Arizona.

Seattle inched down to -4.5 Monday morning at The SuperBook.

"We are guessing probably no Goff," Murray said, noting the Rams QB's thumb injury. "I don't know how much difference he makes, but I know the perception would be that he's worth something."

Buccaneers at Washington Odds
Opening line
Washington +6.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Washington won the battle to represent the NFL's worst division, beating host Philadelphia 20-14 in the Week 17 Sunday nighter to claim the NFC East title and the No. 4 seed, despite a 7-9 record. Tampa Bay rode a 21-point fourth quarter to a 44-27 home win over Atlanta and is the NFC's No. 5 seed.

"We are at Bucs -8," Murray said Monday, noting a 1.5-point jump, one point of which came shortly after this line posted Sunday night. "It's just gonna be all moneyline parlays and teasers with the Bucs."

The total fell to 46 Monday morning.

Ravens at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans +4.5, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Tennessee tried to give away the AFC South and the No. 4 playoff seed, turning a 31-15 third-quarter lead into a 35-31 fourth-quarter deficit at Houston. A wild final couple of minutes saw the Titans sandwich a touchdown and a bank-shot, final-seconds field goal around a Texans field goal, as Tennessee escaped with a 41-38 victory.

Baltimore had no such close-call issues in its regular-season finale at Cincinnati, where the Ravens rumbled to a 38-3 win to secure the No. 5 seed.

"The Ravens-Titans number came down a little," Murray said of a pretty quick drop from Baltimore -4.5 to -3.5, for the first of three Sunday playoff games. "That's definitely the best matchup of the weekend. Too bad it's at 10 a.m. PT. It should be really good two-way action."

The total dropped a notch to 54.5 Monday morning.

Bears at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -9.5, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved
Chicago needed a win to guarantee an NFC playoff spot, but couldn't get it in a 35-16 home setback to Green Bay. However, thanks to Arizona tumbling to Los Angeles, the Bears grabbed the seventh and final slot and a spot on Wild Card Weekend.

New Orleans already had a playoff spot secured entering Week 17, but went out and pounded Carolina 33-7 anyway to secure the No. 2 seed. That means the Saints won't go on the road until, and if, they face the top-seeded Packers.

"Bears-Saints will be the same as the Bucs game," Murray said. "All the moneyline parlays will go there and to Alabama (in the CFP championship) the next night."

Browns at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -3.5, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Two teams that just squared off to end the regular season get a Wild Card Weekend rematch, though the location changes, with Pittsburgh at home. Cleveland needed to win Sunday to assure a playoff spot and made things interesting, despite the Steelers resting Ben Roethlisberger and other key players. But the Browns got there 24-22 to nab the AFC's No. 6 seed and another meeting with the No. 3 Steelers.

Pittsburgh nudged up to -4 Monday morning at The SuperBook, and the total dipped a tick to 46.5.

"The last game of an NFL playoff weekend, there's always a ton of parlay liability to the favorite. I expect us to see that again with the Steelers," Murray said. "We will need the Bears and Browns pretty big on Sunday."

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:08 AM

NFL Wild Card Round Betting Tips: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Buffalo is on fire right now, and with the indoor-friendly Indianapolis Colts coming to Orchard Park in January, we suggest you jump on the Bills—NOW.

If you thought regular-season NFL odds were tight, wait until you tangle with the NFL playoff odds. With fewer games on the board, bookies put all their might into making the numbers and adjusting off action on these postseason showdowns.

The first round of point spreads and totals are on the board for the Wild Card games and just like we did every Sunday night during the season, we’re planning out our NFL betting strategy when it comes to getting the best of the playoff numbers.

These are our NFL betting tips for the Wild Card odds to bet now and which ones you should bet later.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-6.5): Bet Now

The Bills opened just under touchdown favorites at home to the Colts in the Wild Card Round, and money on Buffalo has boosted the juice to -6.5 (-115) at some books. With the way the Bills are playing – and the 56 points they dropped on Miami in Week 17 – you know this spread is going to hit seven—and soon.

Buffalo’s resume for 2020-21 is impressive, with its three losses all explainable blemishes. The Bills whiffed in a weird COVID-complicated Tuesday night matchup with Tennessee in Week 5, lost to the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on a short week, and fell victim to a 43-yard Hail Mary in a 32-30 loss at Arizona. That’s it.

The Colts are a worthy advisory, having won four of their last five games to finish with 11 victories. But this is an indoor team coming to Orchard Park in January. On top of the limited amount of Bills Mafia being admitted for this game, the weather in Buffalo this weekend is calling for temperatures around freezing. Indianapolis has played in five outdoor games this year, boasting a 2-3 SU and ATS mark.

If you’re betting the Bills, make sure you get them under the touchdown now.

Cleveland Browns (+4) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Later

The last time the Browns went to the tournament, Kanye West’s ego was nonexistent and Tobey Maguire was the only big-screen Spider-Man we knew. Ah, 2002. Simpler times.

Thanks to the expanded 2021 playoff, Cleveland clashes with a familiar foe in the Wild Card Round. The Browns opened +4 versus the Steelers at most books, but this spread is starting to tick up with a +4.5 out there at -115. This is a dead number and bookies will allow early money to dictate the move, which means if action comes on Pittsburgh – and it will – the adjustment will be fast and furious to +5 or higher.

Cleveland just squeaked past the Steelers’ skeleton crew in Week 17, winning 24-22 as a 10.5-point home favorite. And when you add on a Week 16 loss to the lowly Jets, the Browns aren’t playing their best football heading into the postseason. However, if you’re clamoring to bet Cleveland, hold your horses. This spread is going to go up, barring any injuries/COVID crap. Wait to bet the Browns.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (Over 47.5): Bet Now

In a battle between the Bears and Saints – two of the better stop units in recent years – you might be surprised that the Over is the hot ticket this Wild Card Weekend. This total opened 47.5 and the vig is starting to tick up on the Over, with some books already dealing 48 points.

Chicago’s offense showed up for the home stretch of the schedule, scoring 30 or more points in each of the four games between Week 13 and Week 16. And, even though the Bears botched the Week 17 finale with only 16 points against Green Bay, they still out-yarded the Packers in the box score.

The Saints hung 33 points on the board against Carolina with no Michael Thomas and a half a running back in the finale game. New Orleans’ defense started to budge in the home stretch of the regular season, but the offense has produced 114 total points in the past three games.

The Saints and Bears battled to a 26-23 overtime win for NOLA back in Week 8 but didn’t need the extra frame to top the modest 41-point total. This time around, books have raised the bar, so if you’re on the Over again, get it now at 47.5 before the number keeps growing.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Under 42.5): Bet Later

These divisional foes meet for a third time this season and after examining their last two matchups, you can see why this total is hanging pretty low. Well, that and the uncertainty around Jared Goff’s surgically repaired thumb.

Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay is possibly slow playing Seattle on the availability of Goff after talking to reporters Sunday night, and this total is being made with John Wolford as Los Angeles’ starting quarterback. However, from reports last week and recent comments from Goff, it sounds like there’s a good shot of him taking snaps in the Wild Card Round.

Even with Goff under center, the Rams and Seahawks went below the number in both matchups in 2020 with only 69 combined points produced in those outings. Los Angeles can ill afford to get into a shootout with the Seahawks and have helped Under backers cash in 11 of the Rams’ last 13 games. Seattle’s stop unit took half the schedule to find its footing but has given up an average of only 16 points per game in the eight games since Week 10 (a run of seven straight Unders until a Week 17 Over).

At its current setting, this number is a tough pill to swallow for those leaning Under, so if you are banking on low-scoring football in Seattle (where it could be rainy and cold Saturday), wait until the veil is lifted on Goff and see if this total gets a shot in the arm—and some extra points.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:11 AM

NFL Wild Card Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Rams quarterback Jared Goff sat out a Week 17 win over Arizona with a thumb injury, and his status is unclear for Wild Card Weekend. The SuperBook has Los Angeles a 5-point underdog at Seattle.

The regular season is in the rearview mirror, NFL Wild Card Weekend odds are up, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably surrounding Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff for a Saturday showdown against the Seattle Seahawks.

Wild Card Round Injuries

Los Angeles Rams: Quarterback Jared Goff sat out the Week 17 home victory over Arizona, after injuring his right (throwing) thumb in Week 16 and subsequently having surgery. His status Monday is uncertain at best, and the odds reflect that, with The SuperBook opening the Rams +5, ticking to +4.5 Monday morning and back to +5 Monday afternoon. "We are guessing probably no Goff," SuperBook executive director John Murray said.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Top wide receiver Mike Evans learned Monday his knee injury suffered in Sunday's win over Atlanta was not as serious as first thought, as there's no structural damage. Coach Bruce Arians termed Evans day-to-day for Saturday's game at Washington. The SuperBook opened Tampa Bay -6.5 and was already up to -8 Monday.

Buffalo Bills: Wideout Cole Beasley (knee) missed the Week 17 rout of Miami, and his status Monday was uncertain for a Saturday home game against Indianapolis. Buffalo opened -6.5 at The SuperBook and spent several hours Monday at -7 before returning to the opener.

Cleveland Browns: Defensive end Olivier Vernon, who had nine sacks this season, tore an Achilles and is done for the year. Cornerback Denzel Ward is in COVID protocol, and his status Monday was uncertain. The Browns opened +3.5 for Sunday night's game at Pittsburgh and moved to +4 Monday.

New Orleans Saints: Star running back Alvin Kamara tested positive for COVID last week, but could return for Sunday's game if he successfully gets through league protocols. Wideout Michael Thomas (ankle) might also return for the playoff tilt against Chicago. The Saints are -9.5 at The SuperBook.

Wild Card Round Weather

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: The early forecast notes Saturday will be chilly, but nothing more, which isn't bad for Buffalo in January. The high will be near 30 degrees, with 5-10 mph breezes. The total moved from 52.5 to 51.5 to 52 by Monday afternoon at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle could see cloud cover Saturday afternoon, but the early projection includes just a 19 percent chance of rain. The total Monday was stable at 43.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team: The temperature will be in the low-to-mid 30s for this prime-time Saturday game, with almost no chance of precipitation predicted in the early forecast. The total opened 46.5 and on Monday was 45.5 at The SuperBook.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: Nashville should see partly cloudy skies and very light wind for Sunday's Wild Card Weekend contest. The total moved from 55 to 54.5 and back at The SuperBook by Monday afternoon.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: A night game in January in Pittsburgh can hardly expect to be warm, and it won't be, with temperatures in the low 30s Sunday evening. But that's the only issue in the early forecast. The total ticked from 47 to 46.5 Monday morning at The SuperBook.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:16 AM

Hot & Not Report - Wild Card
Matt Blunt

Wild Card Betting Angles

The NFL playoffs are finally here, and while it may look different than it has in the past with only one bye week team and seven contestants in each conference, back-to-back triple headers this weekend should be highly entertaining.

Only having one bye week team does complicate a few historical angles that will be touched on in a minute, as under the 2020 format, there would be a lot more entries from the #2 seed in the past regarding the 30+ point angle in Week 17 coming up.

And after last week's piece suggested that any futures tickets in pocket better have said team win in Week 17, keep in mind we saw Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Chicago lose their Week 17 games this year.

It will be interesting to see how deep those three organizations go in this year's playoffs.

But let's get right to the Wildcard Weekend stuff:

Who's Hot

Since the 2010-11 NFL Playoffs started, Wildcard teams that scored 30 or more points in Week 17 are 6-13 O/U in their Wildcard game

For the second consecutive year, Week 17 went to 'over' bettors with a 10-6 O/U record on Sunday, continuing the 2019 results and bucking the history from all those previous years.

However, what that does do is create plenty of potential for Wildcard Weekend to go back to the low side of the totals, because Wildcard teams that put up 30 or more in Week 17 have cashed 'under' tickets at that 68.4% clip.

Of those 19 instances, three of them had occurrences where both combatants in a WC game were off 30+ point performances – GB/Minnesota in 2012, and Detroit/New Orleans and Atlanta/NYG in 2011 – and the O/U result for those respective WC games came in at 1-2 O/U.

Which Under Wagers do I make?

Indianapolis at Buffalo
Tampa Bay at Washington
Baltimore at Tennessee
Chicago at New Orleans

The Baltimore/Tennessee game on Sunday afternoon is applicable to that run after both scored 30+ on Sunday, and with how much running we are expected to see from both sides, an argument for the 'under' 54 in that game isn't all that hard to make (providing the defenses stop the run on Sunday).

Remember, these two met in the Divisional round of the playoffs last year when Baltimore was the #1 seed off a bye week against the 6th seeded Titans off their upset win in New England. Tennessee won that game 28-12 as the game stayed a full TD below the 47.5 closing number.

The other teams this could apply to this weekend are Buffalo, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, and again, based on the opposing offenses for at least the Saints and Buccaneers, finding an 'under' argument to back in those games shouldn't take a lot of work.

Unders in Buffalo games are a completely different story right now with how that team has been operating for the better part of two months now, but you can also never say never in this league as well.

Finally, what may be the most important number for this historical trend is the fact that average points scored in these WC games with at least one team off a 30+ point effort is just 42.3 points per game.

That number is a full FG below any total in the applicable games mentioned this weekend, and if you take out the two outliers on either end of the spectrum – Indy/KC 45-44 game in 2013, and Seattle/Minnesota 10-9 game in 2015 – you get an average of 40.94 points per game.

Cold weather January games and the idea that most WC teams are relatively equal play into those numbers as well, and this year we've got two games going in cold weather cities (Buffalo, Washington). So just because you saw these teams light up the scoreboard at will in Week 17, don't fall into the trap it's a foregone conclusion that those offenses will roll over that momentum and production into Wildcard weekend. History suggests we will see some lower scoring games this weekend.
Also, since the 2010-11 NFL playoffs, at least one Super Bowl participant scored 30 or more points in Week 17 in 7 of the 10 seasons.

On to the Super Bowl participant note now, as 2017, 2014, and 2012 were the only years we got Super Bowls featuring two organizations that didn't score 30 or more in their final regular season game.

This trend isn't limited to Wildcard teams – so keep that in mind – and it means that after Sunday, we've got the Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, and Green Bay Packers all live in that role this year.

In 2019 it was Kansas City who scored 31 in the regular season finale before going all the way, 2018 saw both the Patriots (38 points in Week 17) and Rams (48 points in Week 17) square off in the big game, and the same thing happened in 2016 between the Patriots (35 points in Week 17) and Falcons (38 in Week 17).

2015 it was Carolina going the distance after scoring 38 in Week 17, while 2013 and 2011 saw Denver (34 points in Week 17) and New England (49 points in Week 17) respectively make it to the Super Bowl.

In 2010 it was the Pittsburgh Steelers (41 points in Week 17) make the big game as well.

Interestingly enough, the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs were the only one in the group (outside of 2016 and 2018 when both participants applied) to go on to win the Super Bowl, as scoring 30+ in Week 17 may be good news in terms of getting there, but not necessarily lifting the trophy.

Carolina lost the SB in 2015, as did Denver in 2013, New England in 2011, and Pittsburgh in 2010. Heck, even the two years where both SB participants applied in 2016 and 2018, the two sides that had the higher point totals in Week 17 – Rams and Falcons – went on to lose those Super Bowls as well.

So maybe any futures considerations on the Ravens, Bucs, Saints, Titans, Bills, and Packers should maybe be limited to winning their conference only.

Duplicate Results in 2012 and 2011

Who's Not

Since the 2010-11 NFL Playoffs started, wild card teams that scored 40 or more points in Week 17 are 1-3 ATS in their Wildcard game (Omitting the Detroit/New Orleans game in 2011 when both were off 40+ point efforts)

Who could you fade?

Tampa Bay
Buffalo
Tennessee

Hardly a big sample size over the course of 10 years I know, but it's not like scoring 40 points in the NFL is that common of an occurrence during any week to begin with.

Yet, this year we've got three teams where it does apply, as Tampa Bay (-8.5), Buffalo (-7), and Tennessee (+3.5) would all line up as teams to fade this week.

Again, fading the Titans and backing Baltimore isn't a hard argument to make for a wide number of reasons outside of this historical trend, but it is interesting that the Titans are the home dog in this game.

We haven't seen a home team close as an underdog in this round since the 2015-16 playoffs when we had three of them in Houston (+3) vs KC, Cincinnati (+2) vs Pittsburgh, and Minnesota (+4.5) vs Seattle.

All three of those home dogs lost outright, as Houston lost 30-0, Cincinnati lost 18-16, and Minnesota lost 10-9.

The lone ATS win in this four-game sample did come from the underdog New Orleans Saints though, as they beat Philly 26-24 back in 2013.

Interestingly enough, all three of those games with home underdogs were easy 'under' winners as well, adding another piece of support to the Ravens/Titans 'under' play discussed earlier.

But it's taking the points with Indianapolis and Washington in those other two games that presents a few more headaches for those considering them, because on paper, and the eye test suggests that Tampa and Buffalo's offenses should be able to run those opponents out of town rather easily.

That's generally been the prevailing thought in those past four games though, and we just have to look at last year's Vikings/Saints WC game as the last occurrence.

New Orleans had put up 42 points in Week 17 and then couldn't really find any sort of rhythm in the 26-20 OT loss to the Vikings in the playoffs.

So try not to let too much recency bias from Week 17's results creep into your handicapping this week.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:17 AM

141INDIANAPOLIS -142 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games in the current season.

143LA RAMS -144 SEATTLE
LA RAMS are 17-7 ATS (9.3 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

145TAMPA BAY -146 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 25-8 ATS (16.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992.

147BALTIMORE -148 TENNESSEE
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

149CHICAGO -150 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 17-7 ATS (9.3 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

151CLEVELAND -152 PITTSBURGH
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:17 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:18 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 9

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INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) at BUFFALO (13 - 3) - 1/9/2021, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (9 - 6) at SEATTLE (11 - 4) - 1/9/2021, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 78-106 ATS (-38.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-3 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (11 - 5) at WASHINGTON (7 - 9) - 1/9/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-129 ATS (-44.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 10

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BALTIMORE (11 - 5) at TENNESSEE (11 - 5) - 1/10/2021, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (12 - 4) - 1/10/2021, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 60-89 ATS (-37.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (11 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (12 - 4) - 1/10/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 113-82 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 110-82 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-05-2021, 11:18 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 9

Indianapolis @ Buffalo
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Rams @ Seattle
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Rams's last 13 games
LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games

Tampa Bay @ Washington
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home

Sunday, January 10

Baltimore @ Tennessee
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 14 games at home

Chicago @ New Orleans
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

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**Udog** · 01-06-2021, 10:12 AM

Wild Card Weekend Playoff Betting Trends, Angles
Matt Blunt

Earlier this week, I outlined some historical angles related to the Week 17 results from playoff teams over the years to find some interesting information, but everyone knows you can't completely base a betting selection on what has happened most recently.

So why don't we go over some season long angles and specific “Wild Card Weekend” point-spreads and totals that can be applied as well, because I found some interesting stuff in that research too.

Not going to be the typical Hot/Not format, as rather I'll just go on listing headings based on the idea of Best/Worst or Largest/Smallest, and once I get going here it will be easier to understand.

I'll begin with the specifics of the point spreads and totals we've already got posted for this week's games.

So let's get right to it:

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that's the shortest favorite for the weekend is 3-6 SU and ATS; 1-6 SU and ATS since 2013-14.

This was an interesting one to come across, as more often than not these teams that get locked in as the smallest favorite for Wild Card Weekend (as of the closing line) were around a FG or less.

It's those types of “coin flip” games that you'd think would be much closer to the 50% mark for favorites, but that hasn't been the case. Only two of the nine teams here were favored by 4 points or more (Houston -4 in 2016, and LAR -6 in 2017) and they split the board both outright and against the number.

The last two seasons we've had Philadelphia (-1) and Houston (-1.5) in this spot in 2019 and 2018 respectively and the average margin of defeat for those two teams was 11 points. Not pretty at all.

Put it together for this week and it's not good news for the Baltimore Ravens, as currently they sit at -3.5 for the distinction of being the shortest favorite on the board. Given that there is some playoff revenge from last year, and regular season revenge from an OT loss this year for Baltimore, there are reasons to buck this historical angle and look to back the Ravens, but win or lose, it's got decent potential to be a highly sweated out game.

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that's the biggest favorite for the weekend is 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS; 1-7 ATS since 2013-14.

There are a couple of things to note here, the first being the sample size hits 10 instead of 9 because back in 2017, Kansas City and Jacksonville each closed at -8.5 for the largest spread of Wild Card weekend. Neither of them covered the number, but the Jags did win outright in their 10-3 victory over the Bills.

The second thing to note is that all three ATS wins have come when it's been a double digit spread. In 2011 we had New Orleans close at -10.5 in an easy SU and ATS victory, and Green Bay followed suit the very next year closing at the same -10.5 number. It wasn't until 2016 that we had another double digit spread during Wild Card weekend, as Pittsburgh rolled to 30-12 win over Miami as -11.5 chalk. Every other time the largest spread of the weekend has closed lower than double digits, the underdog has covered.

So it's up to you on whether or not to trust that second caveat this week, as it's the New Orleans Saints who own the distinction of being the biggest favorite this week at -10, although it does seem to be moving into the single digit range at various places in the market.

It will be New Orleans or Tampa Bay that closes in this role as the biggest Wild Card favorite though, and if both end up in single digits, it may be time to close your eyes and hit submit on ATS wagers on Washington and Chicago, even with how unsettling that may feel.

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card game with the smallest total is 3-6 O/U

No wild backstory information on games staying 'under' historically here, and last year it was the Bills/Texans game that landed in this role with a closing number of 43. Even seeing that game go to OT wasn't enough to push the final score 'over' the number (22-19 final), so maybe there is something to this total history where it's best not to try and figure out how it keeps working.

This weekend it's the Rams/Seahawks game that fits this role with a total of 42.5 currently, and given the QB situation for the Rams, you know that the 'under' is likely to get support trickling in throughout the week, and then possibly hammered if Goff is confirmed out at some point. So if the 'under' in this game is already something that's on your radar, it might be best to go ahead and fire early on it.

Since the 2011-12 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card game with the largest total is 2-7 O/U; 1-7 O/U since 2012

This was something I found really interesting related to this week's games, because it adds further support to the 'under' in the Baltimore/Tennessee game that the piece from earlier in the week already outlined.

At 54.5 currently, and approaching 55 and beyond in plenty of shops, the majority consensus for this game is likely only going to be on the 'over', so contrary to the last point, this may be the play this weekend to wait on until it's closer to kick off.

For a bettor like myself, that likely contrarian approach, lined up with these multiple historical angles, as well as a defacto “division flip flop” theory in play after the regular season meeting between these two cashed an 'over' 50.5 ticket thanks to Tennessee's OT win, the 'under' in this game is going to be something already in my pocket come Sunday afternoon.

Since the 2012-13 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the highest points per game of any Wild Card team during the regular season is 5-4 SU, but just 2-6-1 ATS

The sample size remains the same at nine games even with one fewer year, because back in 2015, Seattle and Pittsburgh entered the playoffs tied at the top with 26.4 points per game scored coming into the postseason.

Both of them ended up winning their respective games outright to move on, but not without some drastic help in the form of huge gaffs from their opposition. Seattle and Pittsburgh also went 0-1-1 ATS in those victories.

In Seattle's case, that was the year they won 10-9 at Minnesota in the Wild Card round, as Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a go-ahead 27-yard FG with 22 seconds left in the game. That missed kick bled into the next year for Walsh, where huge struggles ultimately got him released by the Vikings in November of 2016, and he went and joined Seattle of all teams the following year.

I guess the Seahawks organization felt like they needed to directly compensate Walsh at some point for that 2015 playoff victory.

In Pittsburgh's case, they were trailing 16-15 late in Cincinnati as the Bengals were trying to win their first playoff game since 1990, and after a late fumble gave the Steelers one final chance, Marvin Lewis lost complete control of his team. 30 yards in penalties from a Vontaze Burfict head shot and an Adam Jones personal foul penalty put the Steelers in easy FG range for the win.

Had it not been for those gaffs, this SU record for the highest scoring Wild Card team would look much worse, and even still they aren't in a great position to be bet on.

This year, the best Wild Card team in terms of points per game this year just so happens to be the Buffalo Bills at 31.3 points per game. As a touchdown favorite, the Bills following suit in this role with an outright victory, but ATS loss does make plenty of sense.

Since the 2012-13 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the lowest points per game of any Wild Card team during the regular season is 3-5 SU and ATS

Flipping things over to the other side of the scoring spectrum, playoff teams that had issues scoring consistently each week tend to see that be their demise in the opening week of the playoffs.

The 3-5 SU and ATS records aren't perfectly correlated in the sense that every SU win was an ATS cover and vice versa, but that doesn't mean we can't dig a little deeper to take something from this.

Four of the five SU losses came from road teams, while all three SU wins came from sides that were at home. Indianapolis' 45-44 win in wild fashion over the Chiefs back in 2013 stands out as the highlight game fitting this role with the Colts being the lowest scoring Wild Card team that year.

And having an AFC South team either in this role or playing against the team who fits this billing is quite common as well.

Houston made back-to-back appearances in this spot in 2015 and 2016 – losing the former vs KC and winning the latter vs the-then Oakland Raiders – and last season it was the Texans hosting a Buffalo Bills team that scored just 19.6 points per game during the regular season and ultimately fell in that OT game.

That was the second time in three seasons that Buffalo found themselves in this role, as they lost SU but won ATS at Jacksonville back in 2017. Goes to show you just how far that Bills offense has come this season.

The AFC South does get a break from being involved in these games this season though, as it's the Washington Football Team that clocks in with the lowest points per game number this season at 20.9.

Losing outright but winning ATS for Washington makes plenty of sense as a wager this week as well.

Since the 2012-13 NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the best ATS record during the regular season is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS

They call the playoffs the “second season” for a reason, and a record like that during Wild Card weekend for those solid regular season ATS teams suggests that backing strong ATS teams from the season might not be the best option this week.

We've seen some very good teams go down in this role over this span, and I did omit one game between Seattle and Washington from 2012, when they were one of four NFL teams (three in Wild Card) to finish the year with an 11-5 ATS record. The other team that applied that year was the Indianapolis Colts who lost 24-9 in Baltimore.

The only ATS victory during that time came from that 2015 Minnesota Vikings team that couldn't advance thanks to Blair Walsh.

Three different times we've had the best ATS Wild Card team go up against the worst ATS Wild Card team (more on them in a minute) and the worst team has gone 3-0 SU and ATS in those games (Chicago losing 16-15 to Philly in 2018, Oakland losing to Houston in 2016, and Baltimore beating the Colts in that aforementioned 2012 game).

What makes this angle appealing is that there is plenty of opportunity to cash a ticket on a big underdog in these spots, fading these quality ATS teams that oddsmakers have no choice but to shade the line slightly there way if they so choose. Chicago closed at -6.5 against Philly in that 2018 game.

Kansas City was another top ATS team to drop as big chalk back in 2017, losing 22-21 to Tennessee, when KC closed at -8.5, and last year we had New Orleans – who finished the regular season with a league-best 11-5 ATS mark lose outright to Minnesota as -7.5 home chalk.

This year, we've got another reason to fade the Buffalo Bills this week, as Buffalo went 11-5 against the number this year, tying Miami for the best record in the league. Bills fans have got to hope it's simply just a coincidence that they've got the same ATS record and league ranking as New Orleans did a year ago, because watching this year's Bills team lose on Saturday will be a bitter pill to swallow for that fan base.

And I probably shouldn't mention the fact that New Orleans was also the Wild Card round team that had the highest points per game going into last year's playoffs too – a role I already outlined Buffalo being in this season a few paragraphs ago.

Buffalo fans better abandon any belief in the saying “history always repeats” this week in that case.

Since the 2012-13 NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round team that had the worst ATS record during the regular season is 5-3 SU and 6-1-1 ATS.

If fading the best ATS Wild Card team is a situation ripe with upset potential, backing the worst ATS Wild Card team has to be considered in the same realm of possibility.

Last year's loss by the Philadelphia Eagles in this round was the only ATS loss for Wild Card teams in this role, as it had been on a 6-0-1 ATS run prior obviously.

Littered in that fantastic run were outright wins by that same Eagles franchise in 2018 over the Bears (best ATS vs worst ATS) and Atlanta's 26-13 win over the Rams in 2017

These “bad” ATS teams aren't always the underdog though, so keep that in consideration as well, as Houston and KC each won SU and ATS in this role as -4 and -3 chalk in 2016 and 2015 respectively, while Baltimore was laying -7.5 in their 2012 victory over the Colts (another best ATS vs worst ATS).

So which organization lands in this role this week?

Why the Cleveland Browns of course, finishing the year 6-10 ATS and ending their 18-year playoff drought thanks to a nail-biting win over a Pittsburgh team that only had about half their starters suit up.

Cleveland's already seen an opening number of +3.5 move against them with it sitting at -6 currently, which was due to the Covid-19 issues that continue to haunt Cleveland.

Back to the situation, facing the same opponent in consecutive weeks scenario is an added dynamic to that game that I'm sure will be dissected from that approach by many. It is a scenario that has happened enough times in NFL history to be relevant, but it was something that was far more common at the turn of last decade.

It's also not unheard of to have the same team win both games, as Dallas did it to Philadelphia in Week 17 and Wild Card weekend in 2009, the same year that the New York Jets beat Cincinnati to get into the playoffs in Week 17, and then beat them again the following week when all the rested Bengals starters from Week 17 were back on the field for the playoff game.

That's what Cleveland is trying to accomplish on SNF this week, and at least in terms of them being the worst ATS team playing this weekend, it's actually a positive this time around.

Not sure how much higher this number moves Pittsburgh's way, and while it's easy to come to the thought that Pittsburgh having their starting QB back, as well as multiple defensive starters too, should equate to a Steelers win, that's not always the case.

Now that this spread has moved all the way through -6, due to Tuesday Covid-19 update out of Cleveland. Even a tight Steelers victory still gets Cleveland the cover this week. Definitely something to keep in mind.

Finally one more thing to note here that falls under the umbrella of “worst” ATS teams. In this same eight year span since the 2012-13 NFL playoffs began, if you were to blindly take the team that finished the regular season with the worst of the two ATS records in every specific matchup, you'd be 15-8-2 ATS (ignoring games where teams had identical ATS records) and those teams are 16-9 SU as well.

That suggests that plays on Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, Chicago, and obviously Cleveland should be up for consideration as well this week.

**Udog** · 01-07-2021, 10:42 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Saturday’s games

Indianapolis (11-5) @ Buffalo (13-3)
— Colts won four of five, eight of last 11 games.
— Indy won/covered four of its last five road games.
— Colts are 9-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-5 when they do not.
— Philip Rivers has a 5-6 playoff record, 4-2 in first playoff game of a year.
— Indy is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last six years.
— Colts won a playoff game at Houston two years ago, then lost in Kansas City.

— Bills won nine of its last ten games, covered last eight.
— Buffalo outscored last six opponents 156-67 in first half.
— Bills scored 24+ points in 12 of their 13 wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Bills lost their last six playoff games; their last playoff win was in 1995.

— Bills won three of last five series games; Indy won last meeting 37-5 at home, two years ago.
— Colts lost their last three visits to Buffalo, by 23-13-6 points.
— Rivers won his last two visits here with the Chargers, 22-10/31-20.

Rams (10-6) @ Seattle (12-4)
— Rams haven’t named a starting QB, won’t until Saturday. Goff’s thumb is healing, but is he healthy enough to take snaps under center?
— Rams didn’t score an offensive TD the last two weeks.
— In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
— LA scored a defensive TD in four of their last six games; they scored one in each of their last three wins.
— Rams are in playoffs for third time in four years under McVay.
— Under McVay, Rams are 2-2 in playoff games, with a win in New Orleans.

— Seattle won six of its last seven games overall.
— Last five games, Seahawks allowed 14.4 ppg.
— Last seven games, Seahawks outscored foes 83-30 in first half.
— Seattle covered six of its eight home games this year.
— Wilson has a 9-6 playoff record, 6-1 in first playoff game of a year.
— Seahawks are 3-4 in playoff games since they lost Super Bowl six years ago.

— Teams split two meetings this year; home team won both games.
— Seattle beat the Rams 20-9 here two weeks ago.
— Rams won five of last seven series games, but lost last two visits here.

Tampa Bay (11-5) @ Washington (7-9)
— This is Tampa Bay’s first playoff game since 2007.
— Tom Brady has a 30-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last four games, scoring 26-31-47-44 points.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 39-81 third down plays.
— Last five games, Bucs outscored teams 94-49 in second half.
— Tampa Bay is 11-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Bucs won their last five road games (3-2 ATS).

— Not sure if Smith/Heinicke will play QB here. Smith has 2-5 record in playoff games.
— Washington won five of its last seven games. (5-2 ATS)
— Washington outscored last 11 opponents 155-44 in second half.
— Washington lost its last four playoff games; their last playoff win was in 2005.
— Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen Washington games.
— Last seven weeks, Washington allowed 15.9 ppg.

— Washington won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last four meetings here; Bucs were last here in 2015.

Sunday’s games

Baltimore (11-5) @ Tennessee (10-6)
— Baltimore won its last five games, scoring 37.2 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 23 TD’s on their last 47 drives.
— Ravens lost field position in only two games this season.
— Lamar Jackson is 0-2 in playoff games, losing at home to Chargers/Titans.
— Ravens are 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 games as road favorites, 4-2 TY.
— Baltimore hasn’t won a playoff game in six years; they’re 1-3 in playoff games since they won the Super Bowl eight years ago.

— Tennessee won three of last five games to win AFC South title.
— Titans gave up 38+ points in three of their last five games.
— Titans split their last six home games SU.
— Tannehill was 2-1 in playoff games LY, which were all on road.
— Over is 6-2 in Titans’ last eight games overall.
— Titans scored 22 TD’s on their last 51 drives.
— This is Tennessee’s first home playoff game since 2008.

— Titans (+5) beat Ravens 30-24 in Baltimore in Week 11, running ball for 173 yards.
— Tennessee (+10) upset the Ravens 28-12 in Baltimore in LY’s playoffs.
— Tennessee won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.

Chicago (8-8) @ New Orleans (12-4)
— Chicago won/covered three of its last four games.
— Bears are 5-3 ATS on the road this season.
— Chicago gave up five TD’s on seven drives vs Green Bay LW.
— Trubisky lost his one playoff game, 16-15 at home to Philly, in 2018.
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game since 2010; this is their first road playoff game since 1994.
— Bears are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

— New Orleans split its last four games, giving up 24 ppg.
— Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 11 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
— Saints are 4-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 8-8 in playoff games, 6-3 in first playoff game of a year.

— Saints (-4.5) beat Bears 26-23 in OT in Chicago, on November 1st.
— Saints were only 2-13 on 3rd down that day, won field position by 9 yards.
— New Orleans won last six series games.
— Bears lost last five visits here; their last win here was in 1991.

Cleveland (11-5) @ Pittsburgh (12-4)
— Cleveland HC Stefanski (COVID) will miss this game.
— This is the Browns’ first playoff game since 2002.
— Cleveland won four of its last five road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Steelers lost four of last five games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh averaged 54.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last four games, Steelers were outscored 57-20 in first half.
— Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland LW, but they rested players, while Cleveland needed the win to get here.
— Since 2011, Steelers are 3-5 in playoff games; this is their first playoff game since 2017.
— Roethlisberger is 13-8 in playoff games, 7-3 in first playoff game of a season.

— Steelers are 13-3-1 in last sixteen series games.
— Home side won both series games this year.
— Browns lost their last 16 games in Pittsburgh; their last win here was in ’03.

**Udog** · 01-11-2021, 10:58 AM

NFL Divisional Odds: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Moves
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady and the Bucs are 0-2 SU and ATS against the Saints this season, but they'll get a third crack in the NFC divisional round. The SuperBook opened New Orleans -5.5 and very quickly went to -3.5.

NFL divisional playoff betting is on deck, and NFL divisional round odds are on the board and getting action for the four matchups. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the surprising Cleveland Browns, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints meet for the third time this season.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL divisional playoff opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Divisional Round Odds

Rams at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -7, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles and its banged-up quarterback corps somehow went to Seattle on Wild Card Weekend and knocked out the third-seeded Seahawks 30-20 Saturday. Jared Goff didn't start for the Rams against Seattle, due to his thumb injury, but backup John Wolford suffered a neck injury in the first quarter, and Goff had to jump in. On Sunday night, both were questionable for the Saturday night divisional game.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay had a bye week and got some rest this weekend.

"Not much action to report there," Murray said Sunday night, noting the line was stable at Packers -7. "We were happy to see this game in the first time slot of the weekend. If that was the last game of the weekend, every parlay would've gone to the Packers, and it could've been a huge-exposure game."

Ravens at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Josh Allen and No. 2 seed Buffalo stemmed Indianapolis' late comeback bid to claim a 30-27 victory Saturday, the Bills' first playoff win since the 1995-96 season. Fifth-seeded Baltimore went to No. 4 seed Tennesee on Sunday and dug itself a 10-0 first-quarter hole, but didn't give up another point until the fourth quarter in a 20-13 victory.

"The Bills are still at -2.5. That's gonna be a huge-handle game," Murray said. "The public loves both teams right now. Great two-way volume."

Browns at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -9.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
Cleveland punched No. 3 seed Pittsburgh in the mouth by taking a 28-0 first-quarter lead, largely aided by three turnovers, then held the Steelers enough in check to notch a 48-37 victory Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, meanwhile, rested up for the divisional round, getting a bye week as the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"The Chiefs are up to -10 from -9.5, but that could come down," Murray said. "I think the Browns will be a very square 'dog on Sunday."

Buccaneers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -5.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and fifth-seeded Tampa Bay got more than they could've expected from backup Washington QB Taylor Heinicke, but prevailed 31-23 on Wild Card Saturday. On Wild Card Sunday, No. 2 seed New Orleans slogged to a 21-9 win over Chicago, setting up the third meeting this season between these NFC South rivals.

The Saints won both regular-season clashes, opening the season with a 34-23 home victory, then posting a 38-3 rout at Tampa on Nov 8. But early action was swift on the underdog Bucs.

"We opened Saints -5.5 and the sharp guys flooded us with Bucs bets, so that disappeared quickly," Murray said Sunday night. "We moved down to -3.5."

The total was also on the move Sunday night, jumping up two points to 51.5.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Sat., Jan. 9 - Sun., Jan. 10)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Sat., Jan. 9 - Sun., Jan. 10)

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