Announcement

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:05 PM

Betting Recap - Week 16
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals +7.5 (ML +275) at Texans, 37-31
Jets +6.5 (ML +250) vs. Browns, 23-16
49ers +6 (ML +230) at Cardinals, 20-12
Cowboys +3 (ML +155) vs. Eagles, 37-17

The largest favorites to cover

Buccaneers (-12) at Lions, 47-7
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Giants, 27-13
Bears (-9) at Jaguars, 41-17
Saints (-6.5) vs. Vikings, 52-33

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you bet the Cleveland Browns early in the week at an open of -10, or -9.5, you were greeted with the news Saturday afternoon that the team's top four wide receivers on the depth chart - Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and KhaDarel Hodge were each positive for COVID-19, and they would be out for Sunday's game against the New York Jets. That meant the team had to call-up two wide receivers from the practice squad to join WR Marvin Hall on the 53-man roster. Not so good. The game closed at -6.5, and even that was never going to happen.

The Browns fired out to a 3-0 lead with a field goal to cap off their initial drive, and there were some thoughts they might be OK. That idea was quickly erased when they fell for a trick play, as WR Jamison Crowder hit WR Braxton Berrios for a 43-yard touchdown late in the first quarter to take a 7-3 lead, covering the first-quarter spread at +2.5 (-130), by the way.

They added a pair of touchdowns early in the second quarter, and midway through the third, pushing their lead to 20-3. It was their biggest lead of the season. RB Nick Chubb cut the lead to 20-10 with a 1-yard touchdown run late in the third, and RB Kareem Hunt added a touchdown early in the fourth, slicing the lead to 20-16. That's as close as the Browns would get.

The Jets tacked on a field goal late, making it 23-16. Cleveland had a chance to tie, but QB Baker Mayfield had a fumble on fourth and short. They recovered ahead of the line to gain, but only the fumbler can advance the ball, so it was returned to the spot of the fumble, which was short. That was Cleveland's last gasp, and Browns side bettors never really had a chance at a cover.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Going back to Saturday's game between the Miami Dolphins-Las Vegas Raiders, it was a rough night if you were laying the two points with the Raiders, or holding an 'under' (47) ticket.

Things were going according to plan if you bet the Raiders +2.5 and/or the 'under' (47). The Raiders were up 7-3 after 15 minutes, and they held a 13-6 lead into halftime. However, the Dolphins tied it up 13-13 on their first possession of the third quarter, while Daniel Carlson closed the scoring late in the third quarter to restore the lead of the home side, 16-13.

There were no points in the first 10:59 of the fourth quarter until Jason Sanders booted a 22-yard field goal to tie the game 16-16 with 4:01 left in regulation. Under bettors were still in great shape, and the Raiders were still covering. Then, things went haywire.

QB Derek Carr hits WR Nelson Agholor on an 85-yard touchdown strike just 24 seconds later to take a 22-16 lead, but Carlson misfired on the point-after attempt. That would be costly.

RB Myles Gaskin galloped 59 yards on a pass and catch from newly inserted QB Ryan Fitzpatrick just 42 seconds later, giving the Dolphins a 23-22 lead with 2:55 to go in regulation. Still, the 'under' was hitting, and the Raiders were also cashing with the points. Carlson atoned with 22-yard field goal to make it 25-23, crushing the dreams of under bettors. The Dolphins got the ball back and ended up driving down for a 44-yard field goal attempt from Sanders, and the Dolphins pulled off a miracle 26-25 win.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 16 was the Carolina Panthers-Washington Football Team (41.5) game, and apparently it wasn't low enough. The Panthers had a 6-0 lead after 15 minutes, and a 20-3 lead over former head coach Ron Rivera and WFT, and 'over' bettors actually were on pace for a winner for a while. But the Washington defense tightened up in the second half, and pitched a shutout. However, Rivera decided to bench ineffective QB Dwayne Haskins in favor of backup QB Taylor Heinicke too late, and the home side could only close to within 20-13. That's how it ended, and the 'under' was never in doubt.

The highest total on the board this week was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Detroit Lions (55) game on Saturday afternoon. The Bucs certainly did their part, throwing up 47 points, but the Lions were able to muster up just seven. It was a rough finish, too. The Bucs held a 34-0 lead at halftime, and they were up 47-7 after 45 minutes, but a scoreless fourth quarter had 'over' bettors just shaking their heads in disbelief.

As far as the primetime games were concerned, we covered the Dolphins-Raiders situation above. On Sunday night, the Tennessee Titans-Green Bay Packers (52.5) played in a winter wonderland at Lambeau Field. It was snowing pretty good early on, but tailed off in the end. The teams struggled to get their footing early on, and we had just six points after 15 minutes. Green Bay took a 20-6 lead into halftime, and they were just about halfway to the over, too. After 28 total points in the second half, mostly thanks to the Pack, there were a total of 54 points on the board for a narrow 'over' play. The 'over' is 2-0 in primetime games of Week 16 with Monday's game between the Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots (46.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 27-19 (58.7%) across 46 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 17

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals are finishing up strong, winners of the past two games as underdogs of a touchdown or more, while the Ravens are still playing to get into the playoffs. Baltimore has covered five straight games, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight inside the AFC North, including a dominant 27-3 in Charm City back in Week 5 as 12.5-point favorites, a number similar to this one. The 'under' easily cashed in that game, too.

The Ravens defense has been the story lately, allowing 17 or fewer points in three of the past four games. The exception was that wild 47-42 win in Cleveland on Dec. 14 in Week 14. The Ravens are also 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games on the road, and 8-3 ATS in the previous 11 against teams with a winning record, too. As far as the Bengals are concerned, they have covered five of the past six at home, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five at home as a 'dog. They're also 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight games in the month of January, but 4-0 ATS in the past four games played in Week 17.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys and Giants square off at Met Life Stadium on Sunday, and Dallas is still alive for the NFC East Division title. They need to win, and then turn into the biggest Philadelphia Eagles fans for Sunday Night Football. These teams met back in Big D on Oct. 11 in Week 5, with the Cowboys squeaking out a 37-34 win. That was the day that things changed for the Cowboys, as QB Dak Prescott was knocked out of the game, and it meant a revolving door of QBs Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert due to injuries and COVID-19. Dalton is back healthy and this team might be playing the best football of anyone in the division. Dallas has won three in a row, averaging 36.0 PPG, and they have covered three in a row, too. The G-Men are eliminated from playoff contention now, but boy wouldn't they love to ruin the chance of their rivals from going to the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Titans are probably still thawing out after a bone-chilling loss in Green Bay in the snow. The Titans need to pick up a win in their finale or get some help to make the playoffs. There is a still a chance they could be the odd-man out in the AFC race, so don't expect any let-up in Houston. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight games against teams with a losing record, although they're just 6-19-1 ATS in the past 26 road games against teams with a losing home mark. The Texans were bounced by the Bengals at home in a high-scoring game, and they're now 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning record.

In this series, the Titans are just 1-5 ATS in the past six trips to Houston, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, rarely has their been a Houston team that is this poor and inconsistent, so those trends might not hold much water.

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The WFT heads to the City of Brotherly Love looking to bring an NFC East Division title to D.C. Washington rattled off four straight wins against Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh and San Francisco, and looked like they were going to cruise to the division title. But narrow losses to Seattle and Carolina at home the past two games have them reeling. While they have been inconsistent on offense, total bettors love them at the window. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four for Washington, and 9-2 across the past 11 overall. In Week 1, Washington topped Philadelphia by a 27-17 score as 5.5-point underdogs as the 'over' hit. Philly is also out of the running for the NFC East title due to their loss in Dallas in Week 15, but they could spoil things for Washington. However, the Eagles are ice cold, going 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS across the past seven.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:06 PM

NFL Odds Week 17: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Somewhat quietly, Mitch Trubisky and the Bears put themselves in position to control their own playoff fate. Chicago, a 4.5-point home underdog to Green Bay in Week 17, makes the playoffs with a win.

NFL Week 16 has the Monday nighter remaining, but NFL Week 17 odds are on the board and gaining traction for several key matchups. The Chicago Bears aim to punch their postseason ticket against the Green Bay Packers, and somehow, someway, the putrid NFC East will be decided.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 17 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 17 Odds

Washington at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington currently leads the NFC East, and Philadelphia is the only outfit in the four-team division that's been eliminated from postseason contention. Washington would have clinched the division with a Week 16 win over Carolina, but lost 20-13. Philly blew its chance to stay in the division chase in a 37-17 road loss to Dallas.

"Washington is a pretty easy team to get a handle on right now. If Dwayne Haskins is starting at QB, they are not an NFL offense and I don't see how they can win an NFL game," Murray said Sunday night. "If they somehow get Alex Smith back for this game, I'd expect them to move to the favorites and have a real shot at winning their first division title since 2015."

The line bounced around a bit in the first hour it was up Sunday night, from Eagles -1 to -2 and back to -1. This matchup got flexed into the Week 17 Sunday night game, with an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

Jaguars at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -13.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis is on the outside looking in after blowing a 24-7 third-quarter lead in a 28-24 loss at Pittsburgh. Seven teams make the AFC playoffs, and the Colts are currently eighth. Meanwhile, Jacksonville won the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes with a 41-17 home loss to Chicago.

The SuperBook opened the Colts -13.5 and stuck there through Sunday night.

Packers at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This may well be the Game of the Week, with Green Bay going for the NFC's No. 1 seed and Chicago controlling its own destiny for a wild-card slot. The Packers tuned up by trucking a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau in the Sunday nighter, and Chicago breezed by host Jacksonville 41-17.

"We opened the Packers -4.5 and closed the betting when Sunday Night Football kicked off," Murray said, noting The SuperBook's standing operating procedure, with this game set to go back up Monday morning. "The Bears control their own destiny here and have been playing well, but I'd expect a lot of public support for the Packers if they keep rolling the way they did tonight against Tennessee."

Cowboys at Giants Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas is 6-9 and New York is 5-10, which in the NFC East means both are in contention for the division title and a playoff spot in this regular-season finale. The Cowboys kept their hopes alive by beating Philadelphia 37-17 in Week 16, and the Giants made things tougher by losing 27-13 at Baltimore.

"We opened this game pick and took money right away on Dallas, which moved us to Cowboys -2," Murray said. "The Cowboys have been playing well the last couple of weeks, and the public will likely be all over them as a cheap favorite with a chance to win the division."

Later Sunday night, Dallas ticked up to -2.5 at The SuperBook.

Steelers at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line looks out of whack, but Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North by erasing a 24-7 third-quarter deficit to beat Indianapolis 28-24, so the Steelers have little for which to play. On the flip side, COVID-hindered Cleveland tumbled to the suddenly plucky New York Jets 23-16, and the Browns have a lot more to play for in Week 17, needing a win to assure a playoff slot.

"This will be all Browns money," Murray said Sunday night. "The Steelers clinched the AFC North today with a win over the Colts, and we think they're likely to rest players next weekend. They had a brutal schedule with a lot of games bunched closely together due to COVID-19, and they probably need a week off more than any other playoff-bound team."

Titans at Texans Odds
Opening line
Titans -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee tumbled to Green Bay 40-14 in the Week 16 Sunday nighter, so the Titans need a Week 16 win to be certain of an AFC playoff spot. Houston, playing out the string, lost to visiting Cincinnati 37-31 Sunday.

The Titans were on the move quickly Sunday night, opening -6 at The SuperBook and moving straight to -7 five minutes later. The line came off the board once the Titans-Packers game started, and it will go back up Monday morning.

Saints at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans hung a 50-burger on Minnesota in a 52-33 Christmas Day home win, clinching the NFC South, but the Saints still have a shot at the NFC's top seed. Carolina, which topped Washington 20-13 on the road, is playing for pride.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -4.5, and the first move came just a few minutes later Sunday night, with New Orleans dipping to -4.

Jets at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Patriots -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York lost its first 13 games this year, yet now has a two-game win streak after stunning the Rams in Week 15, then upending the Browns 20-13 in Week 16. New England, out of the playoffs for the first time since 2008, still has Week 16 work to do, hosting Buffalo in the Monday nighter.

The first move on the Jets-Patriots line was toward suddenly surging New York, as The SuperBook opened New England -5.5 and ticked to -5 about an hour later.

Vikings at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Two teams soon to be making offseason plans get together in this regular-season finale. Minnesota enters off a 52-33 Christmas Day loss at New Orleans, while Detroit got trucked by Tampa Bay 47-7. The Vikings opened -6 at The SuperBook, where there was no line movement Sunday night.

Falcons at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay boatraced host Detroit 47-7 in a Week 16 Saturday tilt to clinch a playoff spot. Atlanta gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, but allowed a late touchdown in a 17-14 road loss Sunday.

The Bucs opened -4.5 and moved to -5.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Ravens at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Like the Jets, the Bengals are on a late-season surge, winning two in a row. After a big home upset of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati went on the road in Week 16 and beat Houston 37-31. The Ravens topped the Giants 27-13 and are currently in the AFC playoffs, with a Week 17 win guaranteeing that slot.

The SuperBook opened the Ravens -10 and jumped straight to -11 within a few minutes Sunday night.

Dolphins at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Buffalo already has the AFC East wrapped up, but still has a shot at the AFC's No. 2 seed, though that's not as valuable as it used to be, since only the top seed gets a bye. The Bills have Week 16 work to do, playing at New England in the Monday nighter, while Miami is coming off a wild, final-seconds 26-25 victory at Las Vegas.

"We opened the Bills -4 and closed the betting when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said, noting the game will go back up Monday morning. "The Titans' (loss) could impact how much Buffalo cares about this game. This could potentially be one of the few games next week that has playoff implications for both teams. It should be a high-volume game."

Chargers at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City needed a late-fourth-quarter touchdown to fend off visiting Atlanta 17-14 Sunday, wrapping up the AFC's top seed and making Week 17 meaningless. Los Angeles beat Denver 19-16 on a last-minute field goal.

With K.C. having nothing to play for, The SuperBook opened at Chargers -2.5, and there was no line movement through Sunday night.

Seahawks at 49ers Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle wrapped up the NFC West with Sunday's 20-9 home victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Defending NFC champ San Francisco, nearing the end of an injury-wracked season, knocked off host Arizona 20-12.

The SuperBook opened the Seahawks -4 and ticked to -3.5 within a few minutes Sunday night.

Raiders at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas' slim playoff hopes evaporated in a wild finish in Sin City on Saturday night, as the Raiders lost to Miami 26-25. Denver fell 19-16 at the Chargers on Sunday and is also just playing for pride in Week 17. The Broncos opened -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Cardinals at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona was a 6-point home favorite against a San Francisco squad using its third-string QB, yet the Cardinals lost 20-12 Saturday and are on the outside looking in for an NFC playoff spot. Los Angeles is in the postseason for the moment, but Sunday's 20-9 loss at Seattle has the Rams needing a win to guarantee a playoff berth.

"We opened Rams -5," Murray said. "The Rams are off two bad performances in a row and now get a Cardinals team that could be fighting for its playoff life. This should be a high-volume game."

The SuperBook took the game off the board Sunday night while awaiting clarity on Jared Goff's status, after the Rams QB suffered a thumb injury in the loss to the Seahawks.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:06 PM

NFL Betting Tips for Week 17: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The New York Giants took an ugly loss in Week 16 to Baltimore, but thanks to the magic that is the NFC East, there is still a path for them to make the playoffs with a Week 17 victory.

The roulette wheel that is NFL Week 17 betting is one of the wildest slots on the schedule. Playoff pushes and offseason anxiousness mix the motivations in the final week, creating some strange NFL odds and results.

Regardless of teams’ intent, the sharpest betting strategy is always getting the best number for your bet. And with that in mind, we roll out our final NFL betting tips of the regular season with our point spreads and totals to bet now and the lines you should bet later.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6): Bet Now

Talk about a mismatch in motivation. Tampa Bay needs to win this game to lock in the No. 5 seed in the NFC and is coming off a blowout win over Detroit this past Saturday, giving the Bucs an extra day of rest before hosting the Falcons.

Atlanta, on the other hand, suffered another soul-crushing loss, this time to Kansas City on Sunday. The Falcons straight up “Falcon’d it”, dropping a game-clinching interception in the end zone then allowing Patrick Mahomes to score the go-ahead touchdown with just under two minutes remaining in the game. And when Atlanta had a shot to at least force overtime, kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal with 14 seconds left to lose 17-14.

The Buccaneers took a 31-27 win at Atlanta in Week 15 and while the Falcons have fought hard in recent weeks and plenty of players and staff are auditioning for a job in 2021, this spread is only going up. Grab Tampa Bay at -6 while you can.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+2.5): Bet Later

After the way things trickled down in Week 16, the NFC East is very interesting heading into the final slot of schedule. The Cowboys crushed Philadelphia this past Sunday and need to win at New York while getting an “L” from Washington (vs. the Eagles) to steal the division and the NFC booby prize (a home playoff date).

This spread opened Dallas -1.5 and quickly jumped a full point to -2.5, but let’s not forget the G-Men also have a path to the postseason with a victory and a Football Team folly in Week 17. New York has dropped three straight outings while Dallas has won three in a row, however, the revenge of Jason Garrett could be complete in East Rutherford this Sunday.

The contrasting current form and added media hype around the Cowboys’ Week 16 win is inching this spread near a field goal. Dallas hasn’t played well in outdoor venues this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS (pay attention to the Week 17 forecast), so if you’re on New York, you may want to wait and see if you can get +3 or more.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44.5): Bet Now

The Ravens need to win this AFC North finale to get back in the tournament and given the sizable spread (-11.5), they should be able to manage that. But big spreads often mean big scoring and that could be why we’re seeing this Over/Under start to tick up, climbing from 44 to 44.5 points Sunday night.

Baltimore has found its offensive groove. After mustering just 20.6 points per game during a tumultuous stretch from Week 8 to Week 12, the Ravens have erupted for 37 points per contest in their last four outings. Granted, the opposing defenses were far from elite, but the Bengals' stop unit is no prize pig (allowing an average of almost 26 points).

The Cincinnati offense has shown a little fight the past two weeks. The Bengals have posted scores of 27 and 37 points, with backups QB Brandon Allen putting up respectable numbers in relief of the injured Joe Burrow during his four starts. These division foes played Under the total back in October but have paid out for the Over in four of their last six meetings. Take the Over before this total climbs to 45 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Over 49): Bet Later

If you thought the tanking Jaguars were bad, wait until you get a load of the “Zero F#cks” Jags in Week 17. With Trevor Lawrence jerseys ready to roll off the presses in Jacksonville, there's nothing to play for in Indianapolis this Sunday.

The Colts, in stark contrast, have their postseason lives on the line. Not only does Indianapolis have to win in Week 17 but it will need an assist from other AFC teams in the mix to crack the bracket. Bookies are making Indy lay two touchdowns, which should mean plenty of points. But the Jaguars have puttered to just 41 total points the past three games.

I don’t see this Over/Under cracking 50, even with some 49.5-point totals out there. There’s no doubt the lion’s share of the scoring will be on the Colts, who average 27.4 points per home game. That said, Jacksonville’s stop unit is rolling out the red carpet, giving up 112 combined points its past three appearances and allowing an NFL-worst 32.3 points per road game this season. If you’re on this Over, set an alarm to bet it later in the week.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:07 PM

Hot & Not Report - Week 17
Matt Blunt

Week 17 NFL Betting Angles

Somehow the NFL has managed to make it through their entire schedule on date, as Week 17 of the regular season is finally here.

There were plenty of interruptions schedule-wise for the league this year, and some teams definitely got the short end of the stick through no fault of their own (Pittsburgh), but all 32 NFL teams have played 15 games when they were supposed to have, and a full Sunday slate of the wildness that can be Week 17 awaits.

Who's in, who's out, who cares, and who doesn't, are just some of the questions that generally has me being extremely cautious during Week 17 because a lot of the time you just don't know.

For example, Week 17 Sunday Night Football games get flexed in based on relevant playoff importance, and yet five of the last six home teams that have played a SNF Week 17 finale have lost outright.

You know, the teams that the majority of the time are favored in those “win and get in-type” scenarios and they have consistently fallen short in that prime-time spot the last half-decade.

Oddly enough, this year's flexed in game has nothing on the line for the home side in the Philadelphia Eagles, as they are the only NFC East team without a chance at winning the division this week.

The Eagles are in the spoiler role against Washington with rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts getting his third start, and the team that wins the Dallas/N.Y. Giants game earlier in the day will become the biggest Eagles fans out there.

Who knows, maybe the home side having nothing to lose is what helps break that SNF Week 17 streak for home teams.

For now, let's get to what I've found floating out there for the week, as they are both Week 17 and futures applicable.

Who's Hot

17 of the past 20 Super Bowl participants (aka since 2010), have won SU in Week 17 of that season

This can't be considered all that surprising given that at this point in a season, teams that are out of it are in the business of losing to do whatever they can to improve their draft selection.

Playoff bound teams or fringe playoff teams are looking to do everything they can to improve their own path towards a title, so Super Bowl teams winning in the final regular season week should be expected.

Interesting side note here is that of the three teams to lose Week 17 and go on to the Super Bowl that season – Philadelphia in 2017, New England in 2014, and Baltimore in 2012 – all won the Super Bowl that year, so keep the Week 17 results in mind as a reference point when the Super Bowl matchup is determined this year.

This past does bring up some interesting dilemmas in future's outlooks though if you wind up on a team you think may have a bunch of guys rest in Week 17 and ultimately losing the “meaningless” game.

In terms of Super Bowl potential, it may not be as meaningless as it appears.

Last year in Week 17 we saw the Patriots, Seahawks, Vikings, Texans, and Bills all lose, with Seattle and Houston's loss coming to playoff bound squads (San Francisco and Tennessee) in the process.

Houston and Buffalo played a wild 22-19 OT game in the first round of the playoffs before Houston bowed out to Kansas City the next round, the Patriots were shocked at home by Tennessee, and neither Seattle nor Minnesota could manage more than a single win in Wildcard upsets for their squads.

It just seems that a Week 17 loss in whatever form it takes tends to signal the beginning of the end of the year for these teams.

The year before, we saw No. 1 overall seed New Orleans be the only playoff team to lose in Week 17 and they needed to scratch by the Eagles before getting hosed on the no-pass interference call against the Rams in that NFC Championship.

That's a top seed that had everything locked up go through the motions in Week 17.

Could that be a sign of trouble for Kansas City futures this year with them likely resting and mailing it in for Week 17?

Who's Not

Aside from last year's 13-3 O/U record in Week 17, betting every Week 17 game 'under' from 2012-13 through 2018-19 produced a 47-64-1 O/U record vs closing total

Up to you on whether or not to decide if last year's 'over' explosion was an anomaly historically or a potential changing of the guard, but there is just too much history - even dating back prior to 2012 season – that has me on the side of last year being the outlier and 'unders' still generally the way to look at totals in Week 17 action.

Not once in any of those seven seasons did the Week 17 market as a whole finish with a winning 'over' record, as 8-8 O/U in 2018, and 2016 were the best it got for 'over' bettors.

The fact that those two .500 years combined with last year's 13-3 O/U record could be seen as support for 'overs' starting to connect at a better pace in the final week of the year, but there also wasn't really a whole lot to be decided last year outside of playoff seeding – as opposed to berths – like there is this year, and in these win-and-in scenarios, tightness on offense and strong defense tend to work there way into those games.

Over-Under (O/U) Week 17 Results

2019: 13-3
2018: 8-8
2017: 7-9
2016: 8-8
2015: 5-11
2014: 6-10
2013: 6-10

But when 2018 was 8-8 O/U, 2017 finished 7-9 O/U, 2016 came in at 8-8 O/U, 2015 was 5-11 O/U, 2014 and 2013 went 6-10 O/U in Week 17, and 2012 went 7-8-1 O/U, I've got no problem having initial 'under' leans everywhere and weeding out the suspect lines of thought from there.

It's still early in the week and there have already been multiple Week 17 NFL totals move multiple points in both directions.

It's those games I'd start with if 'under' is a serious consideration, looking to potentially poke holes in any 'over' argument for the totals that have already been bumped up – because now you are getting extra points to work with – or be willing to fire immediately on the totals that have already moved lower if your own numbers still believe an 'under' play to be applicable.

Chances are you'll be passing more on the latter and spending more time on the former and elsewhere on the board in that scenario, and that's alright too.

Remember, Week 17 brings some wildness to it every season. Why put too much strain on your bankroll during it with the playoffs – and no motivation issues – are a week away.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:12 PM

Tech Trends - Week 17
Bruce Marshall

Week 17 of the NFL regular season will offer up a full day of betting action on Sunday, Jan. 3.

We've identified betting trends and angles for all of the 16 matchups.

Sunday, Jan. 3

Washington at Philadelphia
Wash had lost six in a row outright in series prior to opening-day win.
WFT had covered five in a row this season prior to Carolina loss.
Birds just 5-10 vs. line in 2020, 12-20 vs. spread since last season.

Tech Edge: Football team, based on recent trends.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Colts lost on opening day at Jags, in fact have now lost two in a row and 5 of last 7 vs. J’ville.
Jags 443 vs. line last seven TY despite no SU wins since opening day.
Indy just 1-4 vs. spread last five at Lucas Oil.

Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on series trends.

Green Bay at Chicago
Even after Titans win on Sunday night, Pack only 3-4 vs. line last seven TY, Bears have won and covered 3 in a row.
Though Pack 8-1 SU last nine meetings, 5-2 last seven vs. line in series.

Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on series trends.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants
Dallas has won and covered last three TY after dropping 10 of first 12 vs. line.
Cowboys also “over” 5-1 last six TY, and last four “over” in series, though G-Men “under” 11-3-1 in 2020.
Dallas had covered six straight in series before first meeting Oct. 11, but Cowboys still have won last seven SU vs. NY.
G-Men were on 7-1-1 spread run into Thanksgiving week, but only 1-4 vs. line last five.

Tech Edge: Slight to Cowboys, based on recent trends.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pittsburgh has lost last 3 of last 4 SU and dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line TY, with recent slump finally arrested last week vs. Indy.
Steel also “under” 4-2 last six in 2020.
Though Pitt crushed Browns 38-7 in first meeting back on Oct. 18, and Cleve off loss to Jets, note Brownies 5-1 SU last six TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Browns, based on recent trends.

Tennessee at Houston
After Packers last Sunday night, Titans “over” 23-6 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid 2019, though Hou on 5-0 “under” run.
Even after loss at GB, Tenn has covered three of last four on road TY and is 8-5 vs. spread last 13 away.
Texans just 4-9 vs. spread last 13 at home.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

New Orleans at Carolina
After Vikings game, Saints now “over” last three TY and 10-5 in 2020.
Road team has covered last four in series; last four also “over” in series.
Panthers 2-5 vs. line at home TY, 2-8-1 last 11 vs. line at Charlotte.

Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

N.Y. Jets at New England
J-Men 6-3 vs. line last ninet TY, while after Bills on Monday, Belichick 4-8 last 12 vs. spread.
Belichick no covers last five as chalk TY, also “under” 6-0-1 last seven since Nov. 9 win at Jets.
Jets actually 9-5-1 vs. spread last 15 in series.
J-Men on 8-3 “under” run.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.

Minnesota at Detroit
Vikes no covers last six TY, also “over” 10-4-1 in 2020, now “over” 18-7-1 in reg season play since early 2019.
Lions “over” 9-5-1, have allowed 41 or more in 3 of last 5 TY.
Vikes have won and covered last six in series.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and series trends.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Bucs “over” 8-6-1 TY, 20-10-1 since Arians arrived LY.
Last five “over” in series.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Ravens 14-2-1 vs. spread in last six games of season since 2018.
Bengals however a surprising 5-1-1 vs. line at home TY.
Cincy “over” 5-1 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Miami at Buffalo
Dolphins 10-3 SU last 13 TY, also 6-1 last seven as dog in 2020 including Sept. 20 cover vs. Bills.
After Patriots game on Monday, Buff has covered seven in a row in 2020, also “over” 9-4-2 this season, and last four “over” in series.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City
Chiefs no covers last seven TY (0-6-1), just 1-4 last five vs. spread at Arrowhead.
Bolts have won last three SU this season though just 9-20-3 vs. spread since late 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chargers, based on recent trends.

Seattle at San Francisco
Teams have split last eight spread decisions.
Even after Cards win, SF just 2-6 vs. spread last eight TY.
Last five “over” in series.
Even after Rams win, Hawks just 4-7 last ten vs. line TY.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Las Vegas at Denver
Raiders have covered last six meetings (4-2 SU in those games).
Vegas now “over” 11-3-1 this season after Miami game, though this series is now “under” eight in a row!

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on recent “totals” trends.

Arizona at L.A. Rams
Sean McVay now 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line against Cards.
Big Red 2-6 vs. line last eight TY after SF loss.
Also “under” 9-5-1 in 2020, and Rams “under” 11-4 in 2020, though first meeting “over” on Dec. 6.
Kingsbury 3- 2 as dog TY, 11-5-1 last 17 in role.

Tech Edge: Rams and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:12 PM

101WASHINGTON -102 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after a loss in the last 2 seasons.

103JACKSONVILLE -104 INDIANAPOLIS
JACKSONVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after allowing >=30 pts. in the current season.

105GREEN BAY -106 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games after 2 straight overs since 1992.

107DALLAS -108 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a home dog of <=7 in the last 2 seasons.

109PITTSBURGH -110 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.

111TENNESSEE -112 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

113NEW ORLEANS -114 CAROLINA
NEW ORLEANS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

115NY JETS -116 NEW ENGLAND
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

117MINNESOTA -118 DETROIT
MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

119ATLANTA -120 TAMPA BAY
ATLANTA is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after gaining 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:13 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:13 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (6 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 10 - 1) - 1/3/2021, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (1 - 14) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (12 - 3) at CHICAGO (8 - 7) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 206-150 ATS (+41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (6 - 9) at NY GIANTS (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games in January games since 1992.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (12 - 3) at CLEVELAND (10 - 5) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 85-57 ATS (+22.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (10 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 11) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 130-165 ATS (-51.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (11 - 4) at CAROLINA (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (2 - 13) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 8) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 212-158 ATS (+38.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-95 ATS (+31.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (6 - 9) at DETROIT (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in dome games this season.
MINNESOTA is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (4 - 11) at TAMPA BAY (10 - 5) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (10 - 5) at CINCINNATI (4 - 10 - 1) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (10 - 5) at BUFFALO (11 - 3) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (6 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (14 - 1) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 132-99 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 132-99 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (11 - 4) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 9) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (7 - 8) at DENVER (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 45-88 ATS (-51.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 5-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (8 - 7) at LA RAMS (9 - 6) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 5-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 5-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:14 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Jacksonville (1-14) @ Indianapolis (10-5)
— Jaguars lost their last 13 games, are 0-3 ATS the last three weeks.
— Jacksonville gave up 31-40-41 points in their last three games.
— Last three weeks, Jacksonville was outscored 56-13 in first half.
— Jaguars are 712-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog, 3-4 TY.
— Jaguars stayed under their team total the last three weeks.
— Last five weeks, Jaguars allowed 177.6 rushing yards/game.

— Colts won three of four, seven of last ten games.
— Indy covered only one of its last five home games.
— Colts are 8-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-5 when they do not.
— Indy is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Eight of their last 11 games went over the total.
— Colts are in 5-way tie for last four playoff slots; they need help to get in.

— Jacksonville (+8) upset Indy 27-20 in Week 1, their only win this year.
— Colts outgained Jax 445-241 that day, but were -2 in turnovers.
— Jaguars won seven of last ten series games.
— Jaguars lost six of last seven visits here (29-26/33-13 last two)

Green Bay (12-3) @ Chicago (8-7)
— Packers need win here to get #1 seed, and a bye next week.
— Green Bay won five in row, seven of last eight games.
— Packers scored 32.8 ppg in their last six games,
— Packers are 8-9 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite, 2-3 TY.
— Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in nine of their last 12 games.

— Chicago is in the playoffs if they win this game.
— Bears won last three games, scoring 36.7 ppg.
— Last four games, Chicago scored 15 TD’s on 42 drives.
— Bears is 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Chicago gained 389+ total yards s in each of its last four games.
— Four of Bears’ last five games went over the total.

— Packers won 18 of last 21 series games.
— Green Bay won nine of last ten trips to the Windy City.
— Packers (-8.5) beat Chicago 41-25 in Week 12, running ball for 182 yards.
— Green Bay had five TD’s on seven drives in that game.

Dallas (6-9) @ NY Giants (5-10)
— Dallas won/covered its last three games, scoring 30-41-37 points.
— Cowboys have ten takeaways in those two games (+9)
— Dallas was leading at halftime in six of last eight games.
— Cowboys covered five of their last seven games.
— Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
— Dallas is 4-6 ATS in last ten games as road favorites, 1-1 TY.

— Giants lost last three games, outscored 73-26.
— Giants are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS inside their division.
— Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-6 in first half.
— Big Blue is 0-7 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
— Giants are 3-14 ATS in last 17 games as a home dog, 2-4 this year.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games.

— Winner of this game wins NFC East if Philly wins Sunday night.
— Cowboys won last seven series games.
— Dallas scored 34.3 ppg in winning last three visits here.
— Cowboys (-8.5) beat Giants 37-34 in Week 5; both teams scored a defensive TD.
— Dallas scored 35+ points in last four series games.

Pittsburgh (12-3) @ Cleveland (10-5)
— Mason Rudolph will play QB; Roethlisberger gets a day off.
— Steelers lost three of last four games, after an 11-0 start.
— Pittsburgh is likely to rest other startrs for playoffs next week.
— Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
— Last three games, Steelers were outscored 47-14 in first half.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh averaged 48.4 rushing yards/game.

— Browns’ WR’s were out LW (contact tracing); check status here.
— Cleveland won five of their last seven games.
— Browns lost field position in their last eight games.
— Cleveland gave up 29.2 ppg in their last five games.
— Browns need to win to make the playoffs.
— Under is 5-3 in Cleveland’s last eight games.
— Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.

— Steelers are 13-2-1 in last sixteen series games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 in last seven series games, 0-1-1 in last two.
— Steelers (-3.5) beat Cleveland 38-7 in Week 6.

Tennessee (9-6) @ Houston (4-11)
— Tennessee split its last four games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— Titans gave up 34-41-40 points in their last three losses.
— Titans are +10 in turnovers this season.
— Tennessee won four of its last six road games SU.
— Over is 5-2 in Titans’ last seven games.
— Titans scored 17 TD’s on their last 41 drives.
— Tennessee wins AFC South with a win here.

— Texans lost last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
— Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans are 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Houston has zero takeaways in last four games (-7).
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— Texans converted 19 of last 38 third down plays.

— Titans (-3.5) beat Houston 42-36 in Week 6, gaining 601 yards.
— Tennessee ran ball for 283 yards in that game.
— Titans lost seven of last eight visits to Houston.
— Tennessee has won four of last six games overall.
— Titans haven’t swept series with Houston since 2007.

New Orleans (11-4) @ Carolina (5-10)
— New Orleans lost two of last three games, giving up 29.7 ppg.
— Saints can still get bye next week with win and some help.
— New Orleans had 11 first downs on its first 14 plays last week.
— Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
— Saints are tied with Seattle for #2 seed in NFC.
— Last three New Orleans games went over the total.

— Carolina lost three of four, eight of its last ten games.
— Panthers are 5-10 despite a +6 turnover ratio.
— Panthers covered two of seven home games this season.
— Carolina is 0-10 when they allow 23+ points, 5-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Last two weeks, Panthers were outscored 13-0 in second half.
— Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

— Saints (-7) beat Carolina 27-24 in Week 7, converting 12-14 third down plays.
— New Orleans outgained Panthers 415-283.
— Saints won seven of last eight series games; three of their last four wins were by 3 points.
— New Orleans won last three visits here, by 21-3-32 points.

NJ Jets (2-13) @ New England (6-9)
— Jets won last two games after an 0-13 start; they fired the coach Tuesday.
— Jets have only one turnover in last three games (+3)
— Jets have been outscored 127-77 in 2nd half of their last ten games.
— Jets are 2-13, but their turnover ratio is +2.
— Jets are 2-5 ATS on the road this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their last eleven games.

— Last three games, Patriots were outscored 43-6 in second half.
— New England lost last three games, are out of playoffs for first time since ‘08.
— Last three games, Patriots have one TD on 28 drives (12 three/outs).
— New England trailed at halftime in nine of its last 12 games.
— Patriots converted only 9 of last 34 third down plays.
— Patriots are 2-4 ATS as favorites TY; last time they were favored was Week 11.
— Under is 9-3 in their last dozen games.

— New England won last nine series games.
— Patriots (-9.5) beat Jets 30-27 in Meadowlands in Week 9.
— Jets led that game 20-10 at the half; Patriots ran ball for 159 yards.
— Jets lost last nine visits to Foxboro, last four by 16+ points.

Minnesota (6-9) @ Detroit (5-10)
— Vikings lost last three games SU, are 0-6 ATS in last six.
— Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
— Vikings lost field position by 10+ yards in seven games this year; they won field position once all season.
— Minnesota allowed 32.2 ppg in its last six games.
— Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite, 1-0 TY.
— Six of seven Viking road games stayed under the total.

— Lions allowed 27+ points in eight of its last nine games.
— Detroit lost three in row, seven of last nine games.
— Lions are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
— Lions are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as home underdogs, 1-4 TY.
— Last two weeks, Detroit is minus-5 in turnovers
— Six of last nine Lion games went over the total.

— Vikings (-3) beat Detroit 34-20 in Week 9, running ball for 275 yards.
— Minnesota averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt, was +3 in turnovers.
— Vikings won last six series games, winning last three visits here, by 7-18-12 points.

Atlanta (4-11) @ Tampa Bay (10-5)
— Falcons lost their last four games, by 5-3-4-3 points.
— In their last ten games, Atlanta trailed twice at halftime.
— Last three games, Atlanta was outscored 51-17 in second half.
— Falcons are 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
— Atlanta is 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road dog, 5-3 TY.
— Nine of their last 12 games stayed under the total.

— Buccaneers won last three games, scoring 26-31-47 points.
— Last five games, Bucs converted 33-70 third down plays.
— Last four games, Bucs outscored teams 73-32 in second half.
— Tampa Bay is 6-14-3 ATS in last 23 games as home favorites, 2-2-1 TY
— Tampa Bay is 10-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

— Falcons won five of last seven series games, winning last four visits here.
— Tampa Bay (-6.5) won first meeting 31-27 two weeks ago; they were down 17-0 at halftime.
— Average total in last nine series games: 57.7.

Baltimore (10-5) @ Cincinnati (3-11-1)
— Ravens need win here to make the playoffs.
— Baltimore won its last four games, scoring 37 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 18 TD’s on their last 37 drives.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s last four games.
— Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as road favorites, 3-2 TY.

— Cincinnati won its last two games, scoring 27-37 points.
— Bengals ran ball for 152-169 yards last two weeks.
— Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS as a home underdog this year.
— Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last ten games.
— Last seven games. Cincinnati was outscored 100-47 in 2nd half.
— Three of their last four home games stayed under the total.

— Baltimore (-12) beat Cincy 27-3 in Week 5, running ball for 161 yards.
— Ravens outgained them 331-205, scored a defensive TD.
— Ravens won last four series games, by average score of 31-18.
— Baltimore lost six of its last eight visits to Cincinnati.

Miami (10-5) @ Buffalo (12-3)
— Dolphins won/covered nine of their last 11 games.
— Dolphins still need to win to make the playoffs.
— Miami is 3-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Last five years, Miami is 2-3 ATS as a road favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Dolphins have 17 takeaways in last eight games (+10)
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Bills don’t need to win, may rest some players here.
— Buffalo won eight of its last nine games, covered last seven.
— Bills outscored last six opponents 128-61 in first half.
— Bills scored 24+ points in 11 of their 12 wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

— Bills (-5.5) won 31-28 in Miami in Week 2- they threw for 413 yards.
— Buffalo won last four series games, scoring 35.3 ppg.
— Dolphins lost last three visits to Buffalo, by 8-25-10 points.

LA Chargers (6-9) @ Kansas City (14-1)
— Chargers won their last three games, all in the last minute.
— Bolts have six takeaways in last three games (+5).
— harger covered last three games; they were 3-7-2 ATS in first 12 tilts.
— Chargers are 3-5-2 ATS in last 10 games as road dogs, 2-2-1 TY.
— Four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.
— LA gave up 27+ points in 10 of its last 12 games.

— Kansas City has top seed clinch, will rest guys here.
— Chiefs won their last ten games, are 0-6-1 ATS in last seven.
— Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 3-4 TY.
— Last seven games, Kansas City allowed 24.6 ppg
— Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
— Under is 8-6-1 in Kansas City games this season.

— Chiefs trailed 14-6 at half, beat Chargers 23-20 in OT in Week 2.
— LA ran ball for 183 yards, that day, averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Kansas City won 12 of last 13 series games.
— Chargers lost five of last six visits to Arrowhead.

Seattle (11-4) @ San Francisco (6-9)
— Seahawks can still get #1 seed if Green Bay loses.
— Seattle won five of its last six games overall.
— Last four games, Seahawks allowed 12.2 ppg.
— Last six games, Seahawks outscored foes 77-27 in first half.
— In their last three games, Seattle allowed two TD’s on 30 drives.
— Last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.

— 49ers lost six of their last eight games SU.
— 3rd-string QB Beathard starts here; ex-Cardinal Rosen is new backup.
— SF is 6-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 34.0 ppg in their losses.
— 49ers turned ball over ten times in last four games (-6)
— 49ers covered twice in their last eight games.

— Seahawks (-3) beat 49ers 37-27 in Week 8, converting 9-15 on third down.
— Seattle won 12 of last 14 series games, winning last five visits here.
— Average total in last five series games: 52.

Las Vegas (7-8) @ Denver (5-10)
— Las Vegas lost five of last six games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
— Last six games, Raiders are allowing 20 ppg, just in second half.
— Raiders turned ball over 12 times in last five games (-8)
— Las Vegas doesn’t have a takeaway in its last three games.
— Over is 12-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last six games, Las Vegas allowed 21 TD’s on 60 drives.

— Denver lost seven of their last nine games.
— Broncos was outscored 79-22 in their last two home games.
— Broncos are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
— Denver turned ball over 21 times (-13) in their last ten games.
— Last two games, opponents have 16 plays of 20+ yards; Broncos have two.
— Three of their last four home games went over the total.

— Raiders (-4) routed Broncos 37-12 in Week 10.
— Raiders were +5 in turnovers, ran ball for 203 yards that day.
— Las Vegas won three of last four series games, but lost last four visits here.

Arizona (8-7) @ Rams (9-6)
— Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight games SU.
— Cardinals covered twice in their last eight games.
— Arizona needs win here/Chicago loss to make playoffs.
— Last two games, Redbirds converted 7-26 third down plays.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Cardinal games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in 10 of its 15 games.

— Goff, Kupp, Henderson are all out for LA’s offense.
— Backup QB Wolford gets his first NFL start here.
— In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
— Rams need a win/tie or a Green Bay win to make the playoffs.
— Ten of LA’s last 12 games stayed under the total.
— Rams lost two of their last three home games.

— Rams (-3) won 38-28 in Glendale in Week 14, outgaining Arizona 463-232.
— Cardinals averaged 3.4 yards/pass attempt that day.
— Rams won last seven series games, six of them by 10+ points.
— Arizona lost 34-0/31-24 in last two visits to LA.

Washington (6-9) @ Philadelphia (4-10-1)
— QB Haskins got released; Smith/Heinicke will play QB here.
— Washington won four of its last six games. (5-1 ATS)
— Washington outscored last ten opponents 152-44 in second half.
— Last four years, Washington is 1-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Washington games.
— Last six weeks, Washington allowed 16.2 ppg.

— Eagles lost six of last seven games; they won three of last four at home.
— Philly gained 413-422-477 TY in Hurts’ first threeo starts at QB.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 483.5 yards/game.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-10-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 45-13 in second half.
— Last three Philly games went over the total.

— Washington (+5.5) beat Philly 27-17 in Week 1; they were +3 in turnovers.
— Series has been swept the last five years.
— Eagles won six of last seven series games.
— Washington last last three visits here, by 10-15-5 points.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 12:15 PM

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 3

NY Jets @ New England
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

Minnesota @ Detroit
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Detroit's last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 14 games when playing Minnesota

Miami @ Buffalo
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 9-1-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

Dallas @ NY Giants
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home

Green Bay @ Chicago
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chicago's last 18 games at home

Tennessee @ Houston
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee

LA Chargers @ Kansas City
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

New Orleans @ Carolina
New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

Arizona @ LA Rams
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games

Las Vegas @ Denver
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-03-2021, 10:09 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 17
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Carolina

-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (7.82 ppg) since Oct 19, 2014 on the road coming off a game that went over the total by at least 13 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at Denver

-- The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-16.41 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 24 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Tennessee at Houston

-- The Titans are 7-0 OU (13.00 ppg) since Nov 10, 2019 when they are facing a team Derrick Henry ran for at least 100 yards against last meeting.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Dallas at N.Y. Giants

-- The Cowboys are 10-0 OU (10.75 ppg) since Dec 30, 2018 coming off a game where they allowed at least two turnovers.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Arizona at L.A. Rams

-- The Rams are 0-10 OU (-8.05 ppg) since Sep 16, 2018 when the total is under 46.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Chicago

-- The Packers are 10-0 ATS (7.70 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 coming off a game as a home favorite where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

**Udog** · 01-04-2021, 09:25 AM

Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bills +3.5 (ML +150) vs. Dolphins, 56-26
Giants +1.5 (ML +105) vs. Cowboys, 23-19

The largest favorites to cover

Ravens (-13) at Bengals, 38-3
Chargers (-7) at Chiefs, 38-21
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Falcons, 44-27
Saints (-6) at Panthers, 33-7
Packers (-4.5) at Bears, 35-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an 'under' (44.5) ticket in the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns game, you were extremely unhappy by the end of the afternoon. The Browns fired out to a 7-0 lead early in the first quarter, but there was no more scoring in the opening 15 minutes. And we didn't have another touchdown until there was just 3:48 left in the third quarter, as the Browns took a 17-9 lead.

So with 26 total points on the board, that's a good thing, right? Well, Jarvis Landry scored on a 3-yard touchdown run just three seconds into the final quarter, pushing Cleveland's lead to 24-9. The Steelers responded with a Mason Rudolph to Chase Claypool scoring hook-up from 28 yards out with 10:07 to go, making it 24-16. Under bettors were still in good shape until there were 83 ticks left on the clock in regulation. Rudolph hit JuJu Smith-Schuster on a scoring play with 1:23 to go, cutting Cleveland's lead to 24-22, pending the two-point conversion. If you were holding a Steelers money line ticket, which would have paid +360, it was a tough finish, but you weren't really on the right side until the feverish fourth quarter comeback, so you cant complain too vehemently. But the 20 total points in the fourth quarter were a raw deal for under players.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Over (43.5) bettors in the Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants game were feeling pretty good about themselves, as the teams combined for 29 points in the first 30 minutes, with New York taking a 20-9 lead into the locker room at halftime.

The scoring slowed to a crawl in the third quarter, with only an Ezekiel Elliott 1-yard touchdown run to make it 20-16 in favor of the Giants. Over bettors were closing in on a winning ticket, but for the first time all day they were barely on pace. A 36-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein sliced the lead to 20-19 with 14:16 to play, so surely we're get five more points, right? Well, Graham Gano nailed a 50-yard field goal with 6:27 to go, making it 23-19, but that's exactly how it would end up.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 17 was the New York Jets-New England Patriots (40.5) game. We had a 14-14 tie going into the fourth quarter, but that's when Cam Newton erupted for a pair of touchdown strikes to Devin Asiasi and Sony Michel. It wasn't a bad beat, or anything close to it, as the over was on the board by 11:42 to go in the fourth quarter. But it was still a raw deal nonetheless.

The highest total on the board this week was in the Tennessee Titans-Houston Texans (55.5) game on Sunday. It started out just 3-3 after 15 minutes, and it looked like maybe we'd have an 'under' result. It turns out that the oddsmakers weren't even close with their total of 55.5. We have a total of 20 points in the second, 33 points in the third and 20 points in the fourth, as the teams tossed up a total of 79 points in the 41-38 win by Tennessee.

As far as primetime games were concerned, there was just one this week -- Washington Football Team-Philadelphia Eagles (43.5). The teams combined for 31 points at halftime, with WFT leading 17-14. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and then head coach Doug Pederson made the curious move of replacing QB Jalen Hurts with QB Nate Sudfeld. The Giants, and their fans, didn't love that. They needed a Philly win to get into the playoffs. Over bettors didn't love it, either, as both sides struggled to move the ball in the final 30.

For the regular season the under is 28-19-1 (59.5%) across 48 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Colts and Bills did not meet during the regular season. Buffalo streaks into the playoffs on a six-game win streak, and they have cashed in eight in a row. The Bills offense has also scored 24 or more points in nine consecutive games since Oct. 25, when they scored just 18 in a win over the New York Jets on Oct. 25.

Indy won in Week 17 against Jacksonville, and received help, ironically from the Bills, to get into the playoffs. Buffalo topped Miami to vault Indy into the seventh seed. The Colts closed 4-1 SU in the final five, but they failed to cover in each of the past three. The offense has been strong lately, too, going for 24 or more points in each of the past eight outings.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The division rival Rams and Seahawks will meet for a third time this season. Seattle won at Lumen Field by a 20-9 count in Week 16, covering a 1.5-point number as the 'under' (47.5) connected. L.A. won 23-16 on Sunday Night Football back in Week 10, as the Rams covered as three-point favorites in another 'under' result.

There will be a lot of uncertain on this game, as far as the lines, due to injuries. QB Jared Goff is expected back after missing the must-win regular-season finale after thumb surgery. But he could very well miss if he doesn't heal properly. WR Cooper Kupp was on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, missing Week 17, and his status is up in the air. If the Rams get Goff, Kupp and all of their others back, that's obviously huge. OT Andrew Whitworth also might be able to return from a long-term injury to help out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Game (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Tom Brady and the Bucs face the NFC East champs in D.C. in a 5-4 game. Despite the lower seed the Buccaneers opened as a touchdown favorite, one of just two road favorites in the wild-card round. Washington ended the regular season 1-2 SU in their final three, and 0-2 ATS in the final two, while the 'under' cashed in five straight to close out the season.

The Bucs tossed up 91 total points in the final two weekends, as their offense is on fire. They won four in a row, and went 4-1 ATS down the stretch in the final five. Tampa Bay has also scored 24 or more points in each of the past seven, although the 'under' is still 3-2 in the past five. Watch WR Mike Evans and his status, as he hyperextended a left knee in the finale. An MRI showed no structural or ligament damage, which is good, but he is still a question mark.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET)

One of the more intrigued games on the wild-card schedule might be the Baltimore-Tennessee game. These teams met in Baltimore back on Nov. 22, with the Titans coming away with a 30-24 in overtime. These teams also met in the divisional playoffs last season, with the Titans winning 28-12 on Jan. 11 in Baltimore, so we have quite a nice little rivalry budding here.

The Ravens had to win to get in Sunday, and they pounded Cincinnati 38-3 to win for the fifth straight time. They also enter the playoffs on a 6-0 ATS run. Titans RB Derrick Henry became the eighth player in NFL history to run for 2,000 or more yards in a single season, and he helped the Titans go 3-1 SU in the final four, although they were just 2-3 ATS in the final five.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The Bears lost 35-16 in the finale at home against the Packers, but they received help to get into the postseason. They will meet the New Orleans Saints, perhaps in front of fans, depending on what the state of Louisiana decides. These teams met in Week 8, with the Saints winning 26-23 in overtime on a Thursday night. Chicago covered a 5.5-point number as the 'over' (41) cashed in that one. Chicago ended their season 3-1 SU/ATS in the final four, with the 'over' hitting in each of the final three. New Orleans won and covered the final two games, averaging 42.5 PPG.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

We covered what happened in the finale. Cleveland and Pittsburgh meet for the third time this season, and the third time in the postseason in the history of this rivalry. These teams met in Jan. 2003, with the Steelers winning 36-33.

Cleveland ended the season just 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS across the final four outings. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch with a 1-4 SU mark, and they covered just twice in the final six contests. Pittsburgh enters the playoffs with the worst winning percentage across the final five games than any other team in the postseason field.

**Udog** · 01-04-2021, 09:29 AM

AFC Wild Card Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the AFC Championship will begin next weekend in the Wild Card Round as six teams will look to advance to the NFL Divisional Playoff Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs will have the first weekend off as the defending Super Bowl Champions earned the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Seeds two through four are the division winners while five, six and seven are the Wild Card teams.

AFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups

1 Seed - Kansas City Chiefs (First Round Bye)
2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Indianapolis Colts
3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 6 Cleveland Browns
4 Tennessee Titans vs. 5 Baltimore Ravens

Odds to Win AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs -120
Buffalo Bills +350
Baltimore Ravens +650
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
Tennessee Titans +1300
Indianapolis Colts +1500
Cleveland Browns +1800

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts

Date: Saturday January 9
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV-Time: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bills -6.5, Total 52.5

Indianapolis Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U
Buffalo Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

Handicapping current form and this year’s production will be a necessity between these teams since they don’t have much recent history. The Colts defeated the Bills 37-5 in the 2018 regular season, when Andrew Luck was the starting quarterback for Indianapolis. The pair also met in 2017 and Buffalo captured a 13-7 home win.

The home team has won six straight in this series, dating back to 2006. Total bettors should make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

Playoff Notes

The Bills have made the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons but the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. In the most recent games, Buffalo was competitive but it fell to Houston 22-19 last season and Jacksonville 10-3 in 2018. The ‘under’ cashed easily in both of those games.

After missing the postseason last season due to the abrupt retirement of the aforementioned Luck, Indy is back in the dance. The one trend to keep in mind with the Colts focuses on the total as the team is on a 5-0 run to the ‘under.’

The new QB in Indianapolis is Philip Rivers, who owns a 5-6 all-time record in the postseason during his time with the Chargers. Of those five wins, three did come on the road and make a note of this. Rivers was a perfect 4-0 in Wild Card games and his last two wins were outside of California.

Tennessee vs. Baltimore

Date: Sunday, January 10
Venue: Nissan Stadium,
Location: Nashville, Tennessee
TV-Time: ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Ravens -4, Total 54.5

Baltimore Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Tennessee Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-1-1 O/U

Head-to-Head

The 4-5 matchup in the AFC will feature a newly heated rivalry as the Titans and Ravens square off. In last year’s Divisional Playoff round, Tennessee humbled Baltimore 28-12 as a 10-point road underdog.

Fast forward to this season and the Titans captured another road win in Maryland over the Ravens, a 30-24 overtime victory in Week 11. Tennessee was a six-point underdog in this contest.

The visitor has won the past three meetings in this series, which could bode well for Baltimore if you believe the trend will continue.

Playoff Notes

This will be a rare home playoff game for the Titans, the last occurrence coming in the 2008 playoffs and coincidentally Tennessee dropped a 13-10 decision to Baltimore in the Divisional round.

The Titans have gone 3-2 both SU and ATS in their last five playoff games, all taking place on the road. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 as well and defense has been a major catalyst for Tennessee in those games. In the losses, the Titans allowed 35 PPG while just 15.3 PPG in the wins. This year’s defensive squad for Tennessee would need to improve quickly if it wants to get in the two-touchdown neighborhood.

Baltimore has yet to win a playoff game with QB Lamar Jackson under center, going 0-2 the last two years and both games took place at home. The Ravens were held to 12 and 17 points in the setbacks.

Playing on the road in the postseason has proven to be better for head coach John Harbaugh and Baltimore have gone 8-5 in playoff games away from home, which includes a Super Bowl win in 2013. Digging deeper, Baltimore is 4-0 in Wild Card games on the road under Harbaugh and the offense has averaged 30 PPG.

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

Date: Saturday January 9 or Sunday, January 10
Venue: Heinz Field
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5, Total 47

Cleveland Road Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Pittsburgh Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

Quick rematch game here as Cleveland (-10) defeated a short-handed Pittsburgh squad 24-22 this past Sunday to clinch a playoff berth. In the first regular season meeting in Week 6, the Steelers blasted the Browns 38-7 as three-point home favorites.

Including those results, the home team has gone 6-0-1 in the last seven encounters between the two teams. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run over the last two regular seasons.

Playoff Notes

The Steelers haven’t been in the playoffs since 2017 when they dropped a 45-42 home decision to the Jaguars. Including that loss, Pittsburgh is just 1-2 in its last three home playoff games. However, the Steelers have gone 2-0 in their last two Wild Card matchups and the defense has only surrendered 15 PPG which has led to an easy pair of ‘under’ tickets.

Not much playoff history for Cleveland, who hasn’t participated in the postseason since 2003. Sure enough, their last playoff game came against Pittsburgh and it was a wild one as the Steelers captured a 36-33 shootout victory over the Browns at home. For those who forget, QB Tommy Maddox outdueled his counterpart Kelly Holcomb.

**Udog** · 01-04-2021, 09:33 AM

NFC Wild Card Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the NFC Championship will begin next weekend in the Wild Card Round as six teams will look to advance to the NFL Divisional Playoff Round.

Seeds two through four are the division winners while five, six and seven are the Wild Card teams.

After losing in the NFC Championship last season, the Green Bay Packers own home-field advantage in the NFC as they are the top seed at 13-3.

NFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups

1 Seed - Green Bay (First Round Bye)
2 New Orleans vs. 7 Chicago
3 Seattle vs. 6 L.A. Rams
4 Washington vs. 5 Tampa Bay

Odds to Win NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers +160
New Orleans Saints +275
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450
Seattle Seahawks +450
Los Angeles Rams +1200
Chicago Bears +3300
Washington Football Team +3300

Matchup - Chicago vs. New Orleans

Date: Sunday, January 10
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV-Time: CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Saints -9.5, Total 48

Chicago Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U

Head-to-Head

The Saints edged the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 8 in overtime, 26-23. Chicago managed a cover as 5.5-point home underdogs, while the total sailed 'over' 41 points. Saints' quarterback Drew Brees threw for 280 yards in the victory, as New Orleans kicked four field goals and scored two touchdowns.

Playoff Notes

This marks the first time in three playoff meetings between these two teams that the game will take place in New Orleans. The Bears beat the Saints in the Wild Card round in 1990, while eliminating New Orleans to capture the 2006 NFC championship, 39-14.

New Orleans is in the playoffs for the fourth straight season, while winning each of its last three Wild Card contests. Chicago is making its second postseason appearance since 2011, as the Bears were squeezed by the Eagles in the Wild Card round in 2018 by a 16-15 count.

Matchup - L.A. Rams vs. Seattle

Date: Saturday January 9
Venue: Lumen Field
Location: Seattle, Washington
TV-Time: FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Seahawks -5, Total 43

Los Angeles Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U

Head-to-Head

These two NFC West rivals split a pair of meetings with the home team winning each time. The Rams knocked off the Seahawks in Week 10 at SoFi Stadium, 23-16 as three-point favorites, while staying 'under' the total of 55.

Seattle picked up revenge in Week 16 with a 20-9 triumph over Los Angeles as 1.5-point favorites to win the division title.

Playoff Notes

Seattle is in the playoffs for the eighth time in the last nine seasons, as the Seahawks have won their postseason opener in six of their past seven opportunities. In the only other postseason matchup between these clubs, the Rams eliminated the Seahawks, 27-20 in the 2004 Wild Card round.

The Rams are making their third postseason appearance in the past four seasons under head coach Sean McVay, as Los Angeles advanced all the way to the Super Bowl in 2018 before falling short against New England, 13-3. In the only road postseason contest under McVay, the Rams edged the Saints in overtime, 26-23 of the 2018 NFC Championship.

Matchup - Tampa Bay vs. Washington

Date: Saturday January 9
Venue: FedEx Field
Location: Landover, Maryland
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5, Total 46.5

Tampa Bay Road Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U
Washington Home Record: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U

Head-to-Head

Tampa Bay and Washington did not hook up this season, as the Football Team beat the Buccaneers, 16-3 as 3.5-point road underdogs in their previous matchup in 2018. Alex Smith led Washington past Tampa Bay that day, but obviously Tom Brady was not with the Bucs at the time. Brady torched Washington in 2018 as a member of the Patriots in a 33-7 rout at FedEx Field as 15.5-point favorites, while throwing three touchdown passes.

Playoff Notes

For the 18th time in his career, Brady has made the playoffs, while taking the Patriots to the Super Bowl in four of the past six seasons. Last season ended with a dud in a 20-13 home loss to the Titans in the Wild Card round, as this is the first time in Brady's career that his team is beginning the playoffs on the road.

The Buccaneers ended a long playoff drought by qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay last won a playoff game in 2002, which happened to be in Super Bowl XXXVII against the Raiders.

Washington has lost four consecutive playoff games dating back to 2005, when it actually beat Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round, 17-10. In 2012 and 2015, Washington won the NFC East title but ended up losing its first playoff contest by falling to Seattle and Green Bay, respectively, each by double-digits.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sun., Jan. 3)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sun., Jan. 3)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment