NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Week (Tues., Dec. 29 - Sat., Jan. 2)

[Udog]

Bowl Week


NCAAF Trends and Indexes

Tuesday, December 29 - Saturday, January 2

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:

As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Tech Trends - Bowls
Bruce Marshall

The College Football Bowl Season kicks off on Monday, Dec. 21 and concludes on Saturday, Jan. 2 before the College Football Playoff championship on Monday, Jan. 11.

We've identified betting trends and angles for the final 27 bowl games and we also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MIAMI-Fl.
Canes slowed down late in season, just 2-5 last seven vs. line in 2020.
Though OSU only 1-5 last six vs. spread.
Cowboys also on 3-11 “under” run since late last season.
Gundy has also covered four straight bowls.
Meanwhile, Miami has lost and failed to cover 8 of last 9 bowls.

Tech Edge: Oklahoma State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

COLORADO vs. TEXAS
Tom Herman 4-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (3-0 with Texas).
Buffs were 4-1 vs. line for Karl Dorrell this season.
CU 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. line) last five bowls, only one since 2007, and no SU wins since ‘99 Insight.com Bowl vs. BC.

Tech Edge: Texas, based on bowl trends. slight to UCF, based on bowl trends.

WISCONSIN vs. WAKE FOREST
Badgers no covers last four in 2020, longest spread skid since beginning of 2012 (reached six, including last two of 2011).
Meanwhile, Wake 6-2 vs. line in 2020.
Wiscy had won and covered five bowls in a row prior to close Rose Bowl loss to Ducks last season.

Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on recent trends.

MISSOURI vs. IOWA
Mizzou cooled off late in 2020, lost last three vs. line.
Tigers just 1-3 vs. line away from Columbia.
Now, 1-9 vs. spread last 10 away from home.
Iowa 6-0 SU, 5-1 vs. line last five in 2020.
Kirk Ferentz has won and covered last three bowls.

Tech Edge: Iowa, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. OKLAHOMA
Sooners won last seven outright, covered last six, in 2020.
Though OU just 2-4 vs. line last six bowls, and 3-2 last five in rare dog roles.
Gators head coach Dan Mullen 4-5 vs. line in bowls.

Tech Edge: Slight to OU, based on recent trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. TULSA
Tulsa outstanding 7-1 vs. line this season, 11-3 last 14 vs. number since late LY.
Golden Hurricane has covered last three bowls (not since 2016, the last two of those for Montgomery).
MSU played better down stretch, covering 3 of last 4 after dropping five in a row vs. number.
At that point, Leach was 5-16 his last 21 vs. spread.
Bulldogs “under” 7-3 this season.
Leach only 2-4 SU and 1-5 vs. spread in bowls with Wash State.

Tech Edge: Tulsa, based on team trends.

BALL STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
San Jose 6-0 SU and vs. line in 2020 (counts UNLV as a win).
Now 15-4-1 vs. spread since late 2018.
Spartans also “under” last seven since late 2019.
Cards won and covered last four in 2020 after dropping 5 of previous six vs. spread.

Tech Edge: SJSU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARMY vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Monken 3-0 SU in bowls for Army, also “under” 7-4 this year.
Mounties failed to cover their last six bowls (all Holgorsen).

Tech Edge: Army and slight to “under,” based on bowl and “totals” trends.

ARKANSAS vs. TCU
Old SWC matchup!
Hogs cooled a bit late in 2020, lost last four outright, covered only one of those.
Had covered first six previous.
TCU won and covered last three and 5 of last 6 TY.
Patterson 10-3 SU last 13 bowls, 3-2 vs. line last five.

Tech Edge: Slight to TCU, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI vs. GEORGIA
Luke Fickell 10-5 as 'dog since 2017 with Bearcats, and Cincy 2-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line in bowls last two years.
Bearcats “over” last 3 and 4 of last 5 in 2020.
Note Georgia “over” last four in 2020.
Kirby Smart 3-2 SU, 4-1 vs. line in bowls (counts 2017 title game vs. Bama).

Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

AUBURN vs. NORTHWESTERN
Cats 7-1 vs. line in 2020, NU on 8-1-2 spread run since late 2019.
NU also “under” 8-1 last nine since late 2019.
Pat Fitz has also won outright last three bowls.
Auburn 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls, and Tigers “under” 8-2 in 2020.

Tech Edge: Northwestern and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. ALABAMA
Saban 8-3 vs. line TY, on 9-3 run since late 2019.
Alabama, however, just 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls/Title games.
Irish were only 5-6 vs. line TY, and 3-5 last 8 vs. line in bowls.
Kelly 5-4 as dog since 2016.

Tech Edge: Alabama, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. CLEMSON
Clemson has won and covered all three bowl/playoff meetings since 2013.
4-0 if going way back to ‘78 Gator Bowl.
Buckeyes 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, just 4-7 last 11 overall vs. line since late 2019.
Dabo 14-3 vs. line in ACC title/bowl/playoff games since 2012.
Tigers surging again with three wins and covers in a row.

Tech Edge: Clemson, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY vs. N.C. STATE
UK only 4-6 SU, 4-5-1 vs. line this season.
Though Stoops 2-0 SU last two and 3-0 vs. line last three bowls.
Pack 7-4 vs. spread in rebound year for Dave Doeren.

Tech Edge: N.C. State, based on recent trends.

OLE MISS vs. INDIANA
Hoosiers spotless 7-0 v. line in 2020, now covers in last 8 and 11 of last 13 since late 2019.
Kiffin only 4-5 SU and vs. line TY with Rebels.
However, he did win and cover bowls with FAU in 2017 & ‘19.

Tech Edge: Indiana, based on recent trends.

OREGON vs. IOWA STATE
ISU on 8-4-1 “under” run since late LY.
Ducks only 1-4 vs. line last five bowls/playoffs.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


TEXAS A&M vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Jimbo won and covered last four away from Kyle Field TY.
UNC had dropped 3 in a row vs. line before Miami blowout.
Mack only 5-6 vs. spread in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to A&M, based on team trends.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Week

[Udog]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Bowl Week

[Udog]

211W VIRGINIA -212 ARMY
W VIRGINIA is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing teams with a completion pct. of 48% or worse. since 1992.

295OKLAHOMA ST -296 MIAMI
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.

297COLORADO -298 TEXAS
COLORADO is 14-30 ATS (-19 Units) in road games after allowing >=37 pts. since 1992.

311WISCONSIN -312 WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

315FLORIDA -316 OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992.

317MISSISSIPPI ST -318 TULSA
MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.

321BALL ST -322 SAN JOSE ST
BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

323ARKANSAS -324 TCU
ARKANSAS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games against the Big 12 since 1992.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Bowl Week

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAF

Bowl Week

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

327CINCINNATI -328 GEORGIA
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

327CINCINNATI -328 GEORGIA
CINCINNATI is 7-2 Under (4.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

[Udog]

329AUBURN -330 NORTHWESTERN
NORTHWESTERN is 54-26 ATS (25.4 Units) in road games after a loss since 1992.

331NOTRE DAME -332 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games in the current season.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Week

Dec 30

Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest (4-4) vs Wisconsin (3-3)
— Wake lost its last two games, giving up 104 points.
— Deacons allowed 46.5 ppg in losses, 16.8 ppg in wins.
— Wake has 3 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Deacons have 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 17 career starts.
— Deacons covered three of four games as an underdog this year.
— Wake Forest won three of its last four bowl games.

— Wisconsin lost three of last four games, scoring 10 ppg.
— Badgers have allowed only 15.7 ppg this season.
— Badgers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Wisconsin has 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with six starts.
— Badgers are 0-5 ATS in last five games overall (under 5-0).
— Wisconsin won four of its last five bowl games.

Cotton Bowl, Dallas
Oklahoma (8-2) vs Florida (8-3)
— Oklahoma won its last seven games, after a 1-2 start.
— Sooners scored 35-30 points in their two losses.
— Oklahoma hasn’t lost since October 3rd vs Iowa State
— Sooners have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Oklahoma has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sooners have a freshman QB with 10 career starts.
— Oklahoma covered five of its last six games overall.
— Sooners lost their last three bowls, giving up 54 ppg.

— Florida lost its last two games, giving up 37-52 points.
— Gators’ losses this season are by 3-3-6 points.
— Florida threw ball for 400+ yards in their last three games.
— Gators have 6 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Florida has 89 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Gators have a senior QB who has started 22 games.
— Florida is 1-4-1 ATS in last six games overall.
— Gators won their last three bowls by a combined score of 107-46

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Week

Dec 31

Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, TX)
Tulsa (6-2) vs Mississippi State (3-7)
— Tulsa lost its first game, its last game, went 6-0 in between.
— Golden Hurricane scored 31.2 ppg in its four wins, 7-24 in losses.
— Golden Hurricane has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Tulsa has 65 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulsa’s senior QB has 30 career starts.
— Tulsa covered eight of ten games this season.
— Tulsa is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 52-55 points in last two.

— Mississippi State lost six of its last eight games.
— Bulldogs are 1-7 when they score fewer than 41 points.
— Mike Leach has a 7-8 record SU in bowl games.
— MSU has 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rebels have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
— MSU has switched to a freshman QB; he’s started seven games.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under total.
— Bulldogs lost last two bowls, 27-22/38-28; underdogs covered their last four bowl games.

Arizona Bowl
San Jose State (7-0) vs Ball State (6-1)
— San Jose went undefeated, with all their wins by 10+ points.
— Spartans are 4-0 away from home, scoring 31.8 ppg.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 17 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— San Jose is 6-0-1 ATS this season.
— Spartans are in their first bowl since 2015; they’re 7-3 all-time in bowls.
— San Jose won its last four bowls; their last bowl loss was 1987.

— Ball State won its last six games, after losing their opener.
— Cardinals gave 449+ TY in four of last six games.
— Ball State has 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Cardinals have 79 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ball State has a senior QB with 25 starts.
— This is Ball State’s first winning season since 2013.
— Cardinals are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Ball State is 0-7 all-time in bowls; their last bowl was 2013.

Liberty Bowl (@ Memphis)
West Virginia (5-4) vs Army (9-2)
— West Virginia is 5-0 when it runs for 100+ yards, 0-4 when they do not.
— WVU is 1-3 this season in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
— Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— WVU has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have a junior QB who has started 30 games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in West Virginia’s last seven games.
— Mountaineers lost last three bowls, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— It is difficult to prepare for the option on short notice.

— Misleading record; Army has four wins vs I-AA teams.
— Cadets ran ball for 243+ yards in five of last six games.
— Army has 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Cadets have 55 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Army has a junior QB with 17 career starts.
— Cadets beat Navy 15-0, Air Force 10-7, their rivalry games.
— Army was held to 10-12 points in losses at Cincinnati/Tulane.
— Cadets won last four bowls; they were an underdog in two of them.

[Udog]

331NOTRE DAME -332 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. in the current season.

333OHIO ST -334 CLEMSON
CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

491KENTUCKY -492 NC STATE
NC STATE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off home conference win in the last 3 seasons.

[Udog]

491KENTUCKY -492 NC STATE
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the last 3 seasons.

493OLE MISS -494 INDIANA
OLE MISS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

497N CAROLINA -498 TEXAS A&M
N CAROLINA is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Week

Jan 1

Peach Bowl (Atlanta)
Cincinnati (9-0) vs Georgia (7-2)
— Cincinnati last two wins: 36-33 vs UCF, 27-24 vs Tulsa.
— Bearcats threw ball for 961 yards in their last three games.
— Bearcats have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Cincinnati has 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cincy’s junior QB has 34 career starts.
— Under Fickell, Cincinnati is 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Bearcats won their last two bowls, 35-31/38-6

— Georgia won four of its last five games, scoring 41.7 ppg in last three.
— Dawgs gave up 41-44 points in losses to Alabama/Florida.
— Dawgs have 3 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Georgia has 39 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Dawgs’ QB is a transfer from USC (5 starts)
— Georgia’s last six games went over the total.
— Dawgs won four of their last six bowl games.

Citrus Bowl (Orlando)
Northwestern (6-2) vs Auburn (6-4)
— Northwestern lost two of its last three games, after a 5-0 start.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Northwestern has 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Northwestern has a senior QB with 30 career starts.
— Wildcats were +8 in turnovers in first five games, are minus-5 in last three.
— Seven of eight Northwestern games stayed under total.
— Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Northwestern won last three bowls, scoring 31-24-31 points.

— Auburn lost two of last three games, fired their coach.
— Tigers scored 32.7 ppg in their wins; 6-22-13-20 in losses.
— Auburn gave up 437+ yards six of last nine games.
— Tigers have 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Auburn has 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tigers have a soph QB with 23 career starts.
— Auburn is 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Auburn lost three of its last four bowl games.

Rose Bowl (Arlington, TX)
Alabama (11-0) vs Notre Dame (10-1)
— Alabama won one game this year by less than 17 points.
— Alabama did give up 46 points, 408 PY in last game, vs Florida
— Crimson Tide has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Alabama has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bama’s junior QB has made 14 starts.
— Alabama covered seven of its last eight games overall.
— Alabama is 5-2 in last seven bowls (both losses to Clemson).

— Notre Dame lost 34-10 to Clemson after winning its first ten games.
— When ND beat Clemson 47-40 Nov 7th, Trevor Lawrence didn’t play.
— Notre Dame has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Notre Dame has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame’s senior QB has made 34 career starts.
— Notre Dame is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as an underdog.
— Notre Dame won three of its last five bowls.

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
Ohio State (6-0) vs Clemson (10-1)
— Ohio State scored 38+ points in five of their six games.
— Buckeyes ran ball for 307-322-399 yards in last three games.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— OSU has 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio State’s junior QB has started 19 games.
— Since 2013, Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU won three of last five bowls (both losses vs Clemson)

— Tigers’ OC Elliott will miss this game (COVID)
— Clemson won its last three games, scoring 52-45-34 points.
— Clemson ran ball for 238-219 yards in its last two games.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Tigers have 17 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Clemson’s junior QB has made 35 starts.
— Six of their last eight games went over the total.
— Clemson won five of its last seven bowls.

— Clemson won last two meetings, 31-0/29-23.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Week

Jan 2

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
NC State (8-3) vs Kentucky (4-6)
— NC State won its last four games, scoring 26.0 ppg.
— State allowed 44+ points in all three of their losses.
— Wolfpack is 8-0 when they allow less than 44 points.
— Wolfpack has 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— State has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has used couple of QB’s; the current starter is a junior.
— State is 3-1 ATS this year in games with a single-digit spread.
— Wolfpack is 3-2 in last five bowls; they gave up 51-52 points in the losses; they lost 52-13 to Texas A&M in this game, two years ago.

— Not sure why a 4-6 team is in a bowl, but here we are.
— Kentucky was held to 13 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 losses.
— Wildcats threw for 120 or fewer yards in six of their last eight games.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Kentucky has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wildcats have used couple of QB’s; the current starter is a junior.
— Wildcats are 1-5 when they score less than 35 points.
— Kentucky won its last two bowls, 27-24/37-30

Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Ole Miss (4-5) vs Indiana (6-1)
— Ole Miss won three of last four games, after a 1-4 start.
— Rebels allowed 33+ points in seven of their nine games.
— Arkansas (394) was only team that gained less than 400 yards against them.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Ole Miss has 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ole Miss a has a soph QB with 13 career starts.
— Rebels are 1-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— This is Rebels’ first bowl since 2015; they won four of last five bowls. Kiffin is 1-2 as a head coach in bowls.

— Indiana’s QB got hurt, is out for the year- their only loss is 42-35 at Ohio State.
— Hoosiers covered all seven of their games this season.
— Indiana held three of last four opponents to 11 or fewer points.
— Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Indiana has 46 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Indiana has a soph backup QB with one career start.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Indiana lost its last five bowls, last three by total of six points.

Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)
Oregon (4-2) vs Iowa State (8-3)
— Oregon scored 31+ points in five of its six games.
— Ducks were minus-2 or worse in turnovers in four of six games.
— Oregon has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Ducks have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Oregon has a soph QB with six starts.
— Ducks are 4-10-1 ATS in last fifteen games as an underdog.
— Oregon won its last two bowls, both by one point.

— Cyclones won five of their last six games.
— Iowa State lost Big X title game to Oklahoma team they had previously beaten.
— Cyclones are 8-0 when they score more than 21 points.
— Cyclones have 5 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— ISU has 33 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 32 starts.
— ISU is 3-2-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— Cyclones lost four of their last five bowl games.

Orange Bowl (Miami)
North Carolina (8-3) vs Texas A&M (6-1)
— North Carolina won four of its last five games.
— Tar Heels are 6-0 when they allow less than 31 points.
— Carolina scored 41+ points in five of last six I-A games.
— Tar Heels have 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Tech has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 24 career starts.
— Tar Heels are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as underdogs.
— UNC lost three of its last four bowl games.

— Texas A&M won last seven games, since a September loss to Alabama.
— A&M Randall for 313-216 yards in their last two games.
— Aggies held three of last four opponents under 270 total yards.
— A&M has 8 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Aggies have 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— A&M’s has a senior QB with 41 career starts.
— Aggies are 4-3 ATS this season as a favorite.
— A&M won its last two bowl games, 52-13/24-21