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**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:44 AM

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Jets +17 (ML +1000) at Rams, 23-20
Cowboys +4 (ML +170) vs. 49ers, 41-33
Chargers +3.5 (ML +155) at Raiders, 30-27 (OT)
Bears +3 (ML +130) at Vikings, 33-27

The largest favorites to cover

Ravens (-12.5) vs. Jaguars, 40-14
Titans (-8.5) vs. Lions, 45-26
Bills (-6) at Broncos, 48-19
Cardinals (-6) vs. Eagles, 33-26

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an 'under' ticket (49) in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Baltimore Ravens game, it was a gut-wrenching day from the jump.

The Ravens fired out to a 9-0 lead, much to the delight of side bettors laying the 13.5. Baltimore stepped on the gas even further, posting a 17-0 deficit in the second quarter to take a 26-0 lead into halftime. Under bettors were feeling very good about the Jaguars, as they were cooperating. Surely the scoring would drop off for the Ravens as they called off the dogs, right?

Well, kinda.

The Ravens did their part, managing just 14 points in the final 30 minutes. The Jaguars had just seven points until very late in the game. Baltimore lead 40-7 late into the fourth quarter, and past the two-minute warning. Under bettors were feeling very good...until 1:44 to go in the game, when the Jaguars had a QB Gardner Minshew to WR Chris Conley touchdown to make it 40-14. That's a tough way to lose your 'under' bet.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Going back to Thursday's game between the Los Angeles Chargers-Las Vegas Raiders, again, if you were an 'under' (52.5) bettors...ouch.

The first half started slow enough, as the Bolts posted a 7-3 lead after 15 minutes, and the 'under' (52.5) bettors were feeling good, as they were well on pace. The Chargers ended up taking a 17-10 lead into the break, and the 'over' was then trending. Under bettors were feeling slightly better, in a weird way, as QB David Carr (groin) ended up leaving the game for good in the first half. While nobody ever likes to see someone injured, it's usually good to see a backup coming in if you're an 'under' bettor.

However, backup QB Marcus Mariota led the comeback, erasing a 24-17 lead with a 2-yard diving run for the pylon with 6:16 to go in regulation. It was the only score in the final 17:08 of regulation. That meant overtime, and that's never a good thing for under bettors, either.

However, the Raiders chewed up a ton of clock before settling for a 23-yard field goal for PK Daniel Carlson with just 3:18 left in the extra session. If you were holding an under ticket you were still in good shape as long as the Vegas defense stepped up.

They didn't.

QB Justin Herbert stretched for the goal line and fumbled, with FB Gabe Nabers jumping on the loose ball in the end zone. By NFL rules, only the ball carrier can recover the fumble, so it was moved back to the spot of the fumble. That's something put in place due to the Ken Stabler "Holy Roller" play back in 1978 between these same franchises. The Raiders had a chance to recover the fumble, and win the game, which would have kept their playoff hopes alive. Herbert made good on his second chance, stretching for the touchdown, dashing the chances of the Raiders to make the postseason, and dashing the chances of the 'under' bettors, too.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 15 was the New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (40) game, and despite the exploits of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who scored a pair of rushing touchdowns, the game lived up to its defensive expectations. Under bettors got off to a tremendous start, as the teams battled to a scoreless draw after 15 minutes. The Patriots took a 6-0 lead into the break, and over bettors were already ripping up their tickets. We saw 18 total points in the fourth quarter, but the game still went well under with a 22-12 win by Miami, avenging a 21-11 loss in Foxboro in Week 1, also an 'under' result.

The highest total on the board was in the Detroit Lions-Tennessee Titans (54.5) game, and it was never really in doubt. Tennesse fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and they held a 24-15 lead at halftime, well more than halfway to the total. Under bettors were shaking their heads after just three points by the Lions in the third quarter, with just 42 total points on the board through 45 minutes. However, the Titans offense fired up in the fourth quarter with 22 points, and the Lions chipped in with seven, and when the dust settled we had a total of 71 points on the board. All of that worrying for nothing, as Tennesse prevailed 45-26.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, we covered that above in the Chargers-Raiders 'over' result. The Sunday night game wasn't as prolific, as the Cleveland Browns topped the New York Giants by a 20-6 score with a total of 45. So the 'over/under' is 1-1 with Monday's game pending between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (40).

So far this season the under is 27-16 (62.8%) across 43 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 16

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The Vikings and Saints will square off on Christmas afternoon, and don't be surprised to see the Vikings actually a little like the Grinch. They were dropped 33-27 by the Chicago Bears at home in Week 15, all but ending their already bleak playoff aspirations. The Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot, were dropped at home by the Chiefs in Week 15, and they're on a two-game slide heading into this one. So which one of these teams will find coal in their stocking on Friday, and who will cover? The Vikings are on an 0-5 ATS slide, although they are 4-2 ATS in their six games on the road. The Saints are 5-1-1 ATS across the past seven, although 0-1-1 ATS during their two-game skid. The 'over' has hit in the past two for NOLA, as their offense is averaging 25.0 PPG while yielding 28.0 PPG.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The 49ers hit the "road" for Saturday's afternoon game. Due to COVID-19 strict restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif., the Niners had already relocated to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. for the remainder of the season. Oddly enough, COVID runs more rampant in Arizona than California at the moment, but the government restrictions are much less. So the 49ers will move from the home locker room to the customary road locker room against the Cards. These teams met in Week 1, with Arizona coming away with a 24-20 win at Levi's Stadium as the 'under' connected. Those were halcyon times for Frisco, as they're now 1-6 SU/ATS across the past seven, including three straight losses. Arizona has positioned themselves well for a playoff spot, winning the past two, going 2-0 ATS in the past two after an 0-5 ATS slide.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Rams are the reason the Jets no longer have a goose egg in their win column. L.A. fought back in the fourth quarter, but came up just short in an embarrassing loss. It isn't quite crippling to their playoff hopes, but the NFC West title will require a win in this game for sure. All four NFC West teams are 2-2 against the division so far. The Rams won the first game 23-16 in Los Angeles as the 'under' cashed. Seattle is 2-0 SU over the past two, and 4-1 SU across the past five, although they're just 2-3 ATS. The 'under' is on a 6-0 run for Seattle. The under has been the rule for Los Angeles, too, as the under has cashed in nine of the past 11 games overall, too.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East on Saturday against the Denver Broncos, while the Patriots lost in Miami on Sunday to go 6-8 SU, officially snapping their consecutive streak of making the playoffs at 11 seasons. The Bills won 24-21 in Week 8 in the first meeting, although the Patriots did grab the cover. We'll find out a lot about the Patriots on Monday, as they play their first game with nothing actually at stake except for pride. One thing has been very consistent for the Patriots lately, as the 'under' has hit in six in a row.

**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:44 AM

NFL Odds Week 16: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Aaron Rodgers aims to keep the Packers in the NFC's No. 1 playoff slot in a Week 16 Sunday night showdown against the Titans. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Green Bay a 4-point home favorite.

NFL Week 15 has one more game left, but NFL Week 16 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. Among the top matchups, the Tennessee Titans visit the Green Bay Packers, and the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 16 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

These are the current NFL Week 16 odds.

Vikings at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans dropped its last two games, falling just short at home in a 32-29 Sunday loss to Kansas City, and needs a Christmas Day win to stay ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South. Minnesota needs a win even worse after falling 33-27 at home to Chicago on Sunday, leaving the Vikes at 6-8 SU and clinging to playoff hopes.

"We opened Saints -7 and haven’t moved it," Murray said Sunday night. "There will be a lot of teaser and moneyline parlays this weekend starting with the Saints on Christmas Day. This could potentially be a big windfall for the books if the Vikings can go in there and get a win, the way they did in the wild-card round back in January. I won’t hold my breath. It seems like the Vikings have run out of steam."

Buccaneers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay dug itself a 24-7 third-quarter hole at Atlanta on Sunday, but that proved a familiar position for Tom Brady, and he got a familiar result. Brady and the Bucs rallied for a 31-27 victory. Detroit, meanwhile, got outscored 22-7 in the fourth quarter of a 46-25 loss at Tennessee.

The Bucs opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and are still there late Sunday night.

49ers at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona is in the seventh and final NFC playoff slot for the moment, but needs to keep winning to stay there. In Week 15, the Cards fended off Philadelphia 33-26. San Francisco lost at Dallas 41-33 and is now playing out the string in an injury-riddled season.

The SuperBook opened the Cardinals -3 and ticked to -3.5, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Dolphins at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami, coming off a 22-12 home win over New England, currently holds the seventh and final AFC playoff spot. Las Vegas fell to the L.A. Chargers 30-27 in the Week 15 Thursday nighter and has lost four of its last five, making this Saturday night game a must-win to stay in the playoff chase.

"We opened the Dolphins -2.5. This is a big game for them, as they are hanging on in the AFC playoff race, and the Raiders are basically finished," Murray said Sunday night, adding that Las Vegas likely won't have QB Derek Carr due to a groin injury. "We don’t anticipate seeing Carr out there again. Miami has been impressive, but the Dolphins are pretty banged up. We just feel the Raiders have too many guys out defensively to not be the underdogs here."

Broncos at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Both these teams are playing out the string in the AFC West. Los Angeles topped Las Vegas 30-27 in the Week 15 Thursday nighter, while Denver got belted by Buffalo 48-19 on Saturday night.

The Chargers opened -3 at The SuperBook and briefly visited -3.5, then returned to -3, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Browns at Jets Odds
Opening line
Jets +10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York is winless no longer, pulling off one of the season's biggest upsets in Week 15. The Jets went to Los Angeles as 17-point underdogs to the Rams and exited with a stunning 23-20 victory, moving to 1-13 SU (5-9 ATS). Cleveland remained in the thick of the AFC playoff race by stifling the New York Giants 20-6 on the road in the Sunday nighter.

The SuperBook opened the Browns -10, and that's where the line remains late Sunday night.

Bengals at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
These two teams have nothing but pride and draft position to play for in Week 16, although Cincinnati still has Week 15 work to do, hosting Pittsburgh in the Monday night game. Houston fell short at Indianapolis 27-20 in Week 15.

The Texans opened as 9-point favorites at The SuperBook, and that's where the line sits late Sunday night.

Colts at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There's plenty on the line in this tilt. Pittsburgh is at least hoping to maintain the No. 2 spot in the AFC and stay within striking distance of Kansas City for No. 1, while Indianapolis is currently No. 6, but is tied with AFC South rival Tennessee at 10-4.

Indy edged Houston 27-20 Sunday, while Pittsburgh plays in the Week 15 finale at Cincinnati on Monday night.

"We opened Steelers -2.5 (-110) and took a bet right away on the favorite that moved us to -2.5 (-120)," Murray said. "We aren’t quite ready to go to 3. We really don’t trust the Steelers, and we know wiseguys have loved betting on the Colts this season. Should be a good-volume game here."

Bears at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Chicago nabbed a 33-27 victory at Minnesota in Week 15, while Jacksonville got thumped at Baltimore 40-14. The SuperBook opened the Bears -6.5 and ticked to -7, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Panthers at Washington Odds
Opening line
Washington -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington's four-game SU and ATS run to the top of the putrid NFC East ended with a 20-15 home setback to Seattle. Carolina fell short Saturday night at Green Bay, 24-16. Washington moved from -1.5 to -2 at The Superbook, and that's where WFT is late Sunday night.

Giants at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York could've tied Washington atop the NFC East with a Sunday night win over Cleveland, but never really got going in a 20-6 loss. Baltimore had no such issues while pounding Jacksonville 40-14, but the Ravens are still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, sitting eighth in the AFC.

The Ravens opened -10 at The SuperBook, where the first move was actually toward the Giants within a few minutes Sunday night, as Baltimore dipped to -9.5.

Falcons at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -11, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City kept its firm grip on the AFC's top seed by edging host New Orleans 32-29 in Week 15, while Atlanta blew a 24-7 third-quarter lead at home in a 31-27 loss to Tampa Bay. The Chiefs opened -11 at The SuperBook and dipped to -10.5, where the line sits late Sunday night.

Rams at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Los Angeles was dealt one of the more stunning losses of the 2020 season, a 23-20 home setback to the previously winless New York Jets. Seattle let Washington hang around, but mustered a 20-15 road victory in Week 15 and is now a game clear of the Rams in the NFC West.

"We opened Seahawks -2, took some money and moved it to -2.5," Murray said. "The Rams are coming off as bad of a loss as we have seen in the NFL this season, but they are a very well-coached team, and I’d expect them to play with some serious focus this week. Another good-volume game with good two-way write."

Eagles at Cowboys Odds
Opening line
Cowboys +1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Believe it or not, these two teams are still alive to win the NFC East, even though Philadelphia is 4-9-1 SU and Dallas is 5-9 SU. Philly fell at Arizona 33-26 in Week 15, while Dallas dumped visiting San Francisco 41-33.

The initial move on this line was toward the Cowboys, with The SuperBook going from Eagles -1.5 to -1 and remaining there through Sunday night.

Titans at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay fended off Carolina 24-16 in Week 15 and holds the NFC's top playoff seed. Tennessee is tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South, but the Titans hold the tiebreaker and are currently the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Titans topped Detroit 46-25 Sunday.

"We opened Packers -4 and are still there," Murray said of the Week 16 Sunday nighter. "I expect to see sharp money come in on the Titans in this game, and the Packers always see an onslaught of public bets, especially in prime time. This could end up being one of those Pros vs. Joes type games that media types love. I’m sure we will be pulling for the Titans."

Bills at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Bills -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game certainly has playoff seeding implications, but only for Buffalo, as New England was officially eliminated from postseason contention in Sunday's 22-12 loss at Miami. Meanwhile, Buffalo boatraced Denver 48-19 in a Week 15 Saturday night affair.

"It is funny to see the Bills laying -6.5 on the road against the Patriots, but that’s where we are right now," Murray said of a line that remains -6.5 late Sunday night. "The Bills are the new class of the division with the franchise QB (Josh Allen), and the Patriots will have to rebuild. I’d say the Patriots had a decent run. The books will be pulling for the Patriots in a big way next Monday night."

**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:45 AM

NFL Betting Tips for Week 16: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Dolphins have won eight of their last 10 games but some bettors are still giving them the Santa treatment. If you believe in the Fins, grabbed them -2.5 at Las Vegas now before the spread swings to a field goal.

Christmas shopping can be stressful, especially in crunch time as the advent calendar quickly ticks down to December 25.

But if you shop smart, carefully coursing your plan of attack, some of that stress can be elevated. The same goes with shopping for NFL Week 16 odds. If you’re calculated with your wagers and get the best of the number, it makes Sundays far less stressful.

The best NFL betting strategy is always about getting the best odds for your opinion, which is why we give our weekly NFL betting tips on which spreads and totals to bet now and which lines you should bet later.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders: Bet Now

Some of us are giving the Santa treatment to the Miami Dolphins, struggling to believe that this team is for real. After winning eight of their last 10 games, it may be time to tag the Fins as fact and not fiction.

Miami is a 2.5-point road favorite in Las Vegas in Week 16 and with over 80 percent of the early tickets on the visitor, this spread will likely land on a field goal sooner than later. And why not? The Raiders’ postseason hopes are pretty much dead in the water after going bust against the L.A. Chargers at home last Thursday and QB Derek Carr is out with a groin injury, leaving Marcus Mariota under center.

Vegas has dropped two in a row inside Allegiant Stadium and is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS inside its shiny new home, while Miami is a moneymaker away from South Beach with a 4-2 ATS mark as a visitor. If you’re down with the Dolphins, bet them now at -2.5.

San Francisco 49ers (+4) at Arizona Cardinals: Bet Later

A weird game deserves a weird line. In the battle for State Farm Stadium, the Niners are the visitor in their makeshift home facing their roommates, the division-rival Cardinals. Arizona opened as low as -3.5 and the line jumped to -4 with San Francisco losing at Dallas and the Cardinals pushing past Philadelphia in Week 15.

The 49ers were very much playing their fifth straight road game in that defeat to the Cowboys but now should feel a little more settled into their surrogate venue come Week 16. Turnover troubles have plagued San Francisco the past two games, which has overshadowed solid efforts from the defense. The Niners have actually out-yarded their last two foes by a total of 802 yards to 484 yards. Wowzas.

As mentioned, this line is climbing from -3.5 to the dead number of -4. If money keeps coming on the Cardinals, bookies will move quickly through those dead digits and this could be at -5 or even -5.5. San Fran quarterback Nick Mullens could be replaced by C.J. Beathard, which does nothing in terms of value to the spread but feels like a welcome swap. If you’re not counting out the Niners, hold on for all the points you can get.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 50): Bet Now

I don’t understand why this total is at 50 points to begin with. Denver’s offense has failed to score more than 20 points in four of its last five outings and while the Broncos defense isn’t doing much either, it is facing a Chargers attack that scuffed its feet over the past month.

Outside of needing overtime to break the 30-point plateau against the Raiders last Thursday, the Bolts have been bums with the football. Los Angeles boasted scores of 17, zero, and 20 points in the three games prior to Week 15.

These AFC West rivals did go Over the 44.5-point number with a 31-30 Broncos win back on December 1, but this is the tallest total these teams have faced for one of their matchups in the past 11 meetings. With neither team playing for the postseason, motivation could be missing in Week 16. If you’re not buying a 50-point total either, take the Under now.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Under 49.5): Bet Later

This Week 16 showdown holds weight in the NFC East booby prize with the Cowboys climbing back into the playoff race with a win over San Francisco this past Sunday. Dallas dropped 41 points on the 49ers and has scored a total of 71 points the past two games.

The Eagles have received an offensive jumpstart from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, who has helped the Philadelphia scoring attack notch 26 and 24 points in his first two starts, after Philly floundered for sub-20 point totals in the four games previous to Hurts getting the nod.

That sudden uptick in production has the Over 49.5 juiced heavy at -115 at some sportsbooks, indicating a possible move to a 50-point total. If you like the Under in this Week 16 rivalry, bide your time. The Cowboys’ recent offensive output has more to do with terrible turnovers from their opponents and the Eagles average just over 20 points per game as a visitor.

These NFC East foes have played Under in three straight meetings and are 2-6 Over/Under in their last eight head-to-head games going back to 2017.

**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:46 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:47 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Friday, December 25

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MINNESOTA (6 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) - 12/25/2020, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 26

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TAMPA BAY (9 - 5) at DETROIT (5 - 9) - 12/26/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
DETROIT is 152-193 ATS (-60.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 9) at ARIZONA (8 - 6) - 12/26/2020, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (9 - 5) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 7) - 12/26/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 45-20 ATS (+23.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 59-87 ATS (-36.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 39-69 ATS (-36.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 37-64 ATS (-33.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 27

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DENVER (5 - 9) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 9) - 12/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (10 - 4) at NY JETS (1 - 13) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 10 - 1) at HOUSTON (4 - 10) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 3) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 85-57 ATS (+22.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (7 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 13) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 59-88 ATS (-37.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 10) at WASHINGTON (6 - 8) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 64-100 ATS (-46.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-102 ATS (-38.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at BALTIMORE (9 - 5) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 10) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 1) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (9 - 5) at SEATTLE (10 - 4) - 12/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 9 - 1) at DALLAS (5 - 9) - 12/27/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (10 - 4) at GREEN BAY (11 - 3) - 12/27/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 205-150 ATS (+40.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 57-32 ATS (+21.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 28

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BUFFALO (11 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 8) - 12/28/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-52 ATS (+33.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 212-158 ATS (+38.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-76 ATS (+23.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-95 ATS (+31.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-96 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-62 ATS (+24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:53 AM

NFL

Week 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Friday, December 25

Minnesota @ New Orleans
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Saturday, December 26

Tampa Bay @ Detroit
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Detroit's last 13 games at home
Detroit is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay

San Francisco @ Arizona
San Francisco
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
Arizona is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

Miami @ Las Vegas
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home

Sunday, December 27

Cleveland @ NY Jets
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland

Atlanta @ Kansas City
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Cincinnati @ Houston
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati

Carolina @ Washington
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

NY Giants @ Baltimore
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

Chicago @ Jacksonville
Chicago
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Denver @ LA Chargers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 11 games

LA Rams @ Seattle
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Rams's last 11 games
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Philadelphia @ Dallas
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games at home

Tennessee @ Green Bay
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Monday, December 28

Buffalo @ New England
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Buffalo

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**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 11:03 AM

451MINNESOTA -452 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

453DENVER -454 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

455CLEVELAND -456 NY JETS
NY JETS are 60-88 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road since 1992.

457TAMPA BAY -458 DETROIT
DETROIT is 22-49 ATS (-31.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.

459SAN FRANCISCO -460 ARIZONA
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games after a road upset loss since 1992.

461MIAMI -462 LAS VEGAS
MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

463CINCINNATI -464 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

465INDIANAPOLIS -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1992.

467CHICAGO -468 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

469CAROLINA -470 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.

**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 09:49 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Friday’s game
Minnesota (6-8) @ New Orleans (10-4)
— Vikings lost three of their last five games; they’re barely alive in playoff race.
— Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
— Vikings has lost field position by 10+ yards in seven games this year.
— Minnesota allowed 28.2 ppg in its last five games.
— Minnesota is 9-13-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road dog, 2-3 TY.
— All xix Viking road games stayed under the total.

— New Orleans lost its last two games, giving up 24-32 points.
— Saints were outscored 31-9 in first half of last two games.
— Last two weeks, New Orleans was outrushed 425-156.
— Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.
— Saints are tied with Seattle for #2 seed in NFC.
— Five of last seven New Orleans games stayed under the total.

— Minnesota won three of last four series games, with last two wins in OT.
— Vikings lost three of last four visits to Bourbon Street.
— Average total in last four series games, 49.3.

Saturday’s games
Buccaneers (9-5) @ Lions (5-9)
— Buccaneers won last two games, scoring 26-31 points.
— Last four games, Bucs converted 29-60 third down plays.
— Bucs won last four road games, scoring 36.3 ppg.
— Tampa Bay is 6-4 ATS in last ten games as road favorites.
— Tampa Bay is 9-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Last seven games, Bucs were outscored 119-61 in first half.

— Lions allowed 27+ points in seven of its last eight games.
— Detroit already has an interim HC; they fired the special teams coach Monday
— Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
— Lions are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as home underdogs, 1-3 TY.
— Detroit scored 27.0 ppg the last four weeks.
— Five of last seven Lion games went over the total.

— Road team won six of last seven series games.
— Detroit won four of last six series games last meeting was in 2017.
— Bucs won last three visits to Detroit, scoring 33.3 ppg.

49ers (5-9) @ Arizona (8-6)
— 49ers lost six of their last seven games SU.
— 3rd-string QB Beathard starts here; ex-Cardinal Rosen is new backup.
— SF is 5-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 34.0 ppg in their losses.
— 49ers turned ball over nine times in last three games (-7)
— In last seven games, opponents started 13 drives in SF territory (-9)

— Arizona won last two games, scoring 26-33 points.
— Cardinals covered twice in their last seven games.
— Arizona can clinch a playoff spot with a win here.
— Redbirds are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as home favorites, 2-3 TY.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight Cardinal games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 14 games.

— 49ers have been hunkered down in Arizona for the last month.
— Cardinals won nine of last 11 series games; they won 24-20 at SF in Week 1
— Redbirds ran ball for 180 yards in Week 1, converting 7-14 on third down.

Dolphins (9-5) @ Las Vegas (7-7)
— Dolphins won eight of their last ten games.
— Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.
— Miami is 2-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Last five years, Miami is 2-2 ATS as a road favorite, 1-1 TY.
— Dolphins have 16 takeaways in last seven games (+9)
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Las Vegas lost four of last five games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Raiders are 2-5 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
— Raiders turned ball over 11 times in last four games (-7)
— Las Vegas is 7-7 ATS in last 14 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
— Over is 11-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 19 TD’s on 49 drives.

— Miami won six of last seven series games.
— Dolphins won five of last six trips to Oakland; last visit there was 2010.

Sunday’s games
Browns (10-4) @ NJ Jets (1-13)
— Cleveland won five of their last six games.
— Browns scored 14 touchdowns on their last 29 drives.
— Cleveland gave up 25+ points in three of last four games.
— Cleveland won five of seven road games SU; they’re 1-2 ATS as road favorites.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Browns are in Meadowlands second week in a row; they beat Giants here LW.

— Jets got first win LW, are 5-3 ATS in last eight games.
— Jets allowed 30+ points in five of last seven games.
— Jets have been outscored 114-47 in 2nd half of their last nine games.
— Jets are 1-13, but their turnover ratio is even.
— Jets are 13-9-2 ATS in last 24 games as a home dog, 3-3 TY.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

— Cleveland beat Jets 23-3/21-17 last two years.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.
— Average total in last three meetings, 31.7.

Cincinnati (3-10-1) @ Texans (4-10)
— Short week for Cincinnati after their great win Monday nite.
— Bengals had lost previous five games by combined 124-50.
— Last four weeks, Cincinnati gained only 222.5 yards/game.
— Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last nine games.
— Cincy allowed 16+ points in 2nd half, in eight of last nine games.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Texans lost last three games, giving up 29.7 ppg.
— Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans are 2-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Houston has zero takeaways in last three games (-6).
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Texans converted 15 of last 29 third down plays.
— Houston won eight of last nine series games.
— Last three meetings, total of only 60 points were scored by both teams.

— Bengals lost three of last five visits here, losing last one 12-10 in 2016.

Indianapolis (10-4) @ Steelers (11-3)
— Colts won three in row, seven of last nine games.
— Indy won/covered its last four road games.
— Colts are 8-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Indy covered five of six games as a road favorite TY.
— Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
— Last six games, Colts outscored opponents 92-33 in 2nd half.

— Steelers lost their last three games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last four games, Steelers scored only 17 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is game ahead of Browns in AFC North; they meet next week.
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
— Steelers has six turnovers in last three games (-4).
— Pittsburgh averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in last five games.

— Steelers won last six series games, last two by total of 5 points.
— Colts lost last three games at Heinz Field; their last win here was in 2008.

Bears (7-7) @ Jacksonville (1-13)
— Bears won last two games, are game out of last playoff spot.
— Last four games, Chicago scored 31.0 ppg.
— Last five years, Chicago is 4-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Bears are 4-3 SU on road; they were underdog in all seven games.
— Chicago has only seven takeaways in its last eight games (-5).
— Over is 3-1 in Bears’ last four games.

— Jaguars lost their last 13 games, are 4-3 ATS in last seven.
— Jacksonville gave up 27+ points in 11 of their last 12 games.
— Last two weeks, Jacksonville was outscored 43-3 in first half.
— Jaguars are 8-10-2 ATS in last 20 games as a home dog, 3-3 TY.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Last four weeks, Jaguars allowed 190 rushing yards/game.

— Road team won four of last seven series games.
— Chicago is 4-3 in last seven series games, 2-1 in last three visits here.
— Bears won 41-3 in last visit here, eight years ago.

Panthers (4-10) @ Washington (6-8)
— Carolina lost three in row, eight of its last nine games.
— Panthers are 4-10 despite a +4 turnover ratio.
— Panthers covered their last six games as road underdogs.
— Carolina is 0-10 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Four of their last six games went over the total.
— Last tfour weeks, Panthers outscored opponents 66-40 in second half.
— Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

— Huge question is whether Alex Smith plays QB for Washington.
— Washington won four of its last five games. (5-0 ATS)
— Washington outscored last six opponents 120-37 in second half.
— Washington is 3-4 SU in its home games this year.
— Washington is 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as home favorites, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 7-2-1 in last nine Washington games.
— Last five weeks, Washington allowed 15.4 ppg.

— Washington is 9-6 in series, winning 23-17/29-21 last two years.
— Panthers lost six of their eight visits here.

NY Giants (5-9) @ Baltimore (9-5)
— Giants lost last two games, outscored 46-13.
— Giants are 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS outside their division.
— Last three games, Giants were outscored 31-3 in first half.
— Big Blue is 0-6 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
— Giants are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.
— Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

— Baltimore won last three games, scoring 34-47-40 points.
— Baltimore scored 15 TD’s on their last 29 drives.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Ravens are 12-18 ATS in last 30 games as home favorites, 4-3 TY.
— Over is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five games.
— Ravens are tied with Miami for #7-seed, but lose tie-breaker.

— Ravens won four of last six series games.
— Giants lost 37-14/33-14 in last two visits here.
— Home team won last four series games.

Falcons (4-10) @ Kansas City (13-1)
— Falcons lost four of their last five games.
— Atlanta led seven of its last nine games at halftime.
— Last two games, Atlanta was outscored 41-10 in second half.
— Their last three games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog, 4-3 TY.
— Eight of their last 11 games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs won their last nine games, are 0-5-1 ATS in last six.
— Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (3-4 ATS)
— Chiefs are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 3-3 TY.
— Last six games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg
— Chiefs had 34 first downs, outgained Saints 411-285 LW.
— Kansas City clinch #1-seed in AFC with win or tie here.

— Falcons won three of last five series games, but lost three of last four trips here.
— Atlanta won 40-24 in its last visit to Arrowhead, in 2012.

Rams (9-5) @ Seahawks (10-4)
— Rams won four of their last six games, but lost to 0-13 Jets LW.
— Last two games, LA converted only 5-25 third down plays.
— In their five losses, Rams were outscored 90-25 in first half.
— Rams are 4-3 SU on road; under McVay, they’re 7-3 ATS as road dogs.
— Nine of LA’s last 11 games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.

— Seattle won four of its last five games overall.
— Last four games, Seahawks allowed 13 ppg.
— Last five games, Seahawks outscored foes 71-21 in first half.
— Seattle is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks are minus-5 in turnovers (4-9) their last seven games.

— Rams converted 9-15 on 3rd down, beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10.
— LA won five of last six series games; the loss was 30-29 here LY.

Eagles (4-9-1) @ Dallas (5-9)
— Eagles lost five of last six games; they’re 1-6 SU on road.
— Philly gained 413-422 yards in Hurts’ first two starts at QB.
— Last three games, Philly allowed 440.3 yards/game.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-9-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles are 10-8 ATS in last 18 games as road dogs, 1-3 TY.
— Six of last eight Philly games stayed under the total.

— Dallas won its last two games, scoring 30-41 points.
— Cowboys have seven takeaways in those two games (+7)
— Dallas was leading at halftime in five of last seven games.
— Cowboys covered four of their last six games.
— Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
— Dallas is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as home underdogs, 2-1 TY.

— Cowboys won four of last six series games.
— Philly (-8.5) beat Dallas 23-9 in Week 8; they were outgained 265-222.
— Eagles lost 29-23 OT/37-10 in their last two visits to Dallas.

Denver (5-9) @ LA Chargers (5-9)
— Denver lost six of last eight games, covered three of last five.
— Broncos covered five of seven road games this season.
— Broncos are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as road underdogs, 5-2 TY.
— Denver turned ball over 19 times (-11) in their last nine games.
— Last four games, Broncos were outscored 74-31 in second half.
— Denver allowed 182+ rushing yards in four of last six games.

— Chargers won their last two games, both on last play of game.
— Bolts are 4-3 SU at home; they’re 2-4-1 ATS as favorites TY.
— Last five games, Charger were outscored 89-40 in first half.
— Chargers are 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.
— Three of last four Charger games stayed under the total.
— LA gave up 27+ points in 10 of its last 11 games.

— Broncos (+3) beat Chargers 31-30 at home November 1st; they were down 14-3 at half.
— Chargers had 485 total yards in that game.
— Denver won three in row, 11 of last 14 series games.
— Broncos won 23-22/20-13 in last two visits to the Chargers.

Tennessee (9-4) @ Green Bay (10-3)
— Tennessee won four of last five games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— Titans scored 37.4 ppg in their last five games.
— Titans are +11 in turnovers this season.
— Last three weeks, Tennessee outscored opponents 64-20 in second half.
— Over is 9-3-1 in Titans’ last thirteen games.
— Titans scored 15 TD’s on their last 32 drives.

— Green Bay won four in row, six of last seven games.
— Packers scored 31.4 ppg in their last five games,
— Green Bay converted 81-165 third down plays (49.1%)
— Packers are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 4-3 TY.
— Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in nine of their last 11 games.

— Tennessee won four of last five series games.
— Titans won four of six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Average total in last four series games: 61

Monday's game
Bills (11-3) @ New England (6-8)
— Buffalo won seven of its last eight games, covered last six.
— Bills outscored last five opponents 104-52 in first half.
— Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East.
— Bills scored 24+ points in ten of their ten wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 6-6 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-3 TY.
— Over is 10-4 in their games this season.

— New England lost last two games, are out of playoffs for first time since ‘08.
— Last two games, Patriots have no TD’s on 19 drives (eight 3/outs).
— New England trailed at halftime in eight of its last 11 games.
— Patriots converted only 5 of last 22 third down plays.
— Last five years, Patriots are 2-0 ATS as home underdogs, both TY.
— Under is 9-2 in their last eleven games.

— Bills (-4) beat New England 24-21 in Week 8.
— Rushing yardage in that game: 190-188.
— Bills lost last three visit here average of 13 points; they’re 6-35 SU in last 41 series games.

**Udog** · 12-22-2020, 10:03 PM

Tech Trends - Week 16
Bruce Marshall

Week 16 of the NFL regular season will offer up four straight days of betting action, starting on Christmas (Dec. 25) and ending on Monday, Dec. 28.

We've identified betting trends and angles for all of the 16 matchups.

Also, we have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Friday, Dec. 25

Minnesota at New Orleans
Saints had won 9 in a row SU, covered five straight, and “under” five consecutive before all of those streaks ended the past two weeks vs. Eagles and Chiefs.
Vikings 0-5 vs. line last five this year.
Minnesota on a 8-4-2 “over run in 2020.
“Over” run 16-7-2 last 25 reg season games.

Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

Saturday, Dec. 26

Tampa Bay at Detroit
Buccaneerss “over” 12-3 last 15 away from Raymond James.
Lions “over” 5-1 at home in 2020.
Detroit also “Over” 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field since early 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

San Francisco at Arizona
Home game (sort of) for both!
Niners 10-5 vs. spread last 15 as visitors.
Cardinals have covered last two this year after five straight spread losses.
Arizona has played SF pretty tough (5-0-1 last six vs. spread).
Cards 11-7-1 “under” since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on series trends.

Miami at Las Vegas
After losing to Chargers, Raiders now 9-17-3 vs. spread in second halves of season since 2017.
Las Vegas also “over” 10-3-1 in 2020.
Dolphins on 8-2 SU, 9-1 spread run last 10 this season.
Miami now 20-6 last 26 on board since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Sunday, Dec. 27

Denver at L.A. Chargers
Broncos have now won and covered last three and four of last five meetings.
Denver also 5-2 vs. line away in 20202
Even further back, 9-4 last 13 vs. spread as visitor.
Bolts 2-5-1 as chalk in 2020.
Los Angeles is 4-13-1 laying points (favorite) since last season.

Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
Jets have covered 5 of last 8 this season but still just 6-9 vs. line in 2020.
Going back to 2019, New York 6-13 last 18 on board.
These teams also “under” in meetings each of last three seasons.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

Cincinnati at Houston
Even after beating Steelers on Monday, Bengals 2-4 vs. line last six this year despite 1-5 SU mark.
Cincy also “under” 4-1 last five.
Texans 5-8-1 as chalk since last season.
Houston also “under” 5-1 last five in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Colts 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 vs. line last six in 2020.
Indy also “over” 4-2 last six games.
Steelers no covers last four in 2020 after Cincy loss on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh also “under” 4-1 last five in 2020.

Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.

Chicago at Jacksonville
Bears 0-2 as chalk in 2020, no covers last 8 laying points since early last year!
Chicago also “under” 25-11-1 since late 2018.
Jaguars 4-3 vs. spread last seven in 2020 though not winning any of those outright.

Tech Edge: Jaguars and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Carolina at Washington
Head coach Ron Rivera vs. old employer.
After cover at Green Bay, Panthers have covered last six on road.
Carolina also 8-1 last nine games as an underdog.

Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.

N.Y. Giants at Baltimore
Including loss to Browns on Sunday Night, G-Men 7-2-1 last 10 vs. line this season.
New York also 6-0 as road underdog in 2020.
NY “under” 9-3-1 this season as well.
Ravens might be heating up again with covers last four games.

Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Atlanta at Kansas City
Chiefs on 0-5-1 spread skid.
Falcons 6-2 “under” last eight in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons and “under,” based on recent trends.

L.A. Rams at Seattle
Rams have battered Seahawks last two meetings.
Los Angeles has also won 5 of last 6 SU in series.
Seattle “under” last six this season.
Rams on a 10-4 “under” run in 2020.

Tech Edge: Rams and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

Philadelphia at Dallas
Birds no covers last five or six of last seven on road this season.
Dallas however just 4-10 vs. line in 2020.
Cowboys just 2-5 vs. spread at home.
Philadelphia has won and covered last two meetings.
However, had lost and failed to cover previous four games.
Note Cowboys “over” 4-1 last five this season.
Eagles are “over” 2-0 with rookie Jalen Hurts at QB.

Tech Edge: “Over and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.

Tennessee at Green Bay
Titans “over” 21-6 since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB midway in 2019.
Tenn has also covered 5 of last 7 as underdogs.
Packers only 4-6 vs. spread last 10 this year after Panthers game.

Tech Edge: Titans and “Over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Monday, Dec. 28

Buffalo at New England
Different circumstances in 2020 but head coach Bill Belichick has long owned Bills and even covered earlier meeting this season.
Now 5-2 last seven vs. spread in series and numbers stronger the further back, but not as applicable anyway these days.
Bills however have now won last four SU and covered last six in 2020.
Buffalo also “over” 9-4-1 in 2020.
Belichick 4-2 last six as 'dog this season (but 0-2 last two).
New England 17-7 as dog since 2010.
Patriots “under” 10-4 in 2020.

Tech Edge: slight to Bills and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

**Udog** · 12-26-2020, 09:49 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 16
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Kansas City

-- The Falcons are 10-0-1 ATS (14.32 ppg) since Dec 21, 2014 as a dog off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Denver at L.A. Chargers

-- The Chargers are 0-13-1 ATS (-10.68 ppg) since Dec 22, 2018 coming off a game where they gained at least 367 yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Baltimore

-- The Ravens are 10-0 ATS (11.80 ppg) since Nov 25, 2018 coming off a home win where Lamar Jackson completed at least 60% of his passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Detroit

-- The Lions are 12-0-1 OU (9.42 ppg) since Sep 29, 2019 at home.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

-- The Steelers are 0-11-1 OU (-5.54 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 as a dog coming off a game where they gained less than 20 first downs.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Miami at Las Vegas

-- The Dolphins are 10-0-1 ATS (8.59 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 as a favorite when they covered by at least six points last game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

**Udog** · 12-28-2020, 07:13 AM

Betting Recap - Week 16
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals +7.5 (ML +275) at Texans, 37-31
Jets +6.5 (ML +250) vs. Browns, 23-16
49ers +6 (ML +230) at Cardinals, 20-12
Cowboys +3 (ML +155) vs. Eagles, 37-17

The largest favorites to cover

Buccaneers (-12) at Lions, 47-7
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Giants, 27-13
Bears (-9) at Jaguars, 41-17
Saints (-6.5) vs. Vikings, 52-33

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you bet the Cleveland Browns early in the week at an open of -10, or -9.5, you were greeted with the news Saturday afternoon that the team's top four wide receivers on the depth chart - Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and KhaDarel Hodge were each positive for COVID-19, and they would be out for Sunday's game against the New York Jets. That meant the team had to call-up two wide receivers from the practice squad to join WR Marvin Hall on the 53-man roster. Not so good. The game closed at -6.5, and even that was never going to happen.

The Browns fired out to a 3-0 lead with a field goal to cap off their initial drive, and there were some thoughts they might be OK. That idea was quickly erased when they fell for a trick play, as WR Jamison Crowder hit WR Braxton Berrios for a 43-yard touchdown late in the first quarter to take a 7-3 lead, covering the first-quarter spread at +2.5 (-130), by the way.

They added a pair of touchdowns early in the second quarter, and midway through the third, pushing their lead to 20-3. It was their biggest lead of the season. RB Nick Chubb cut the lead to 20-10 with a 1-yard touchdown run late in the third, and RB Kareem Hunt added a touchdown early in the fourth, slicing the lead to 20-16. That's as close as the Browns would get.

The Jets tacked on a field goal late, making it 23-16. Cleveland had a chance to tie, but QB Baker Mayfield had a fumble on fourth and short. They recovered ahead of the line to gain, but only the fumbler can advance the ball, so it was returned to the spot of the fumble, which was short. That was Cleveland's last gasp, and Browns side bettors never really had a chance at a cover.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Going back to Saturday's game between the Miami Dolphins-Las Vegas Raiders, it was a rough night if you were laying the two points with the Raiders, or holding an 'under' (47) ticket.

Things were going according to plan if you bet the Raiders +2.5 and/or the 'under' (47). The Raiders were up 7-3 after 15 minutes, and they held a 13-6 lead into halftime. However, the Dolphins tied it up 13-13 on their first possession of the third quarter, while Daniel Carlson closed the scoring late in the third quarter to restore the lead of the home side, 16-13.

There were no points in the first 10:59 of the fourth quarter until Jason Sanders booted a 22-yard field goal to tie the game 16-16 with 4:01 left in regulation. Under bettors were still in great shape, and the Raiders were still covering. Then, things went haywire.

QB Derek Carr hits WR Nelson Agholor on an 85-yard touchdown strike just 24 seconds later to take a 22-16 lead, but Carlson misfired on the point-after attempt. That would be costly.

RB Myles Gaskin galloped 59 yards on a pass and catch from newly inserted QB Ryan Fitzpatrick just 42 seconds later, giving the Dolphins a 23-22 lead with 2:55 to go in regulation. Still, the 'under' was hitting, and the Raiders were also cashing with the points. Carlson atoned with 22-yard field goal to make it 25-23, crushing the dreams of under bettors. The Dolphins got the ball back and ended up driving down for a 44-yard field goal attempt from Sanders, and the Dolphins pulled off a miracle 26-25 win.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 16 was the Carolina Panthers-Washington Football Team (41.5) game, and apparently it wasn't low enough. The Panthers had a 6-0 lead after 15 minutes, and a 20-3 lead over former head coach Ron Rivera and WFT, and 'over' bettors actually were on pace for a winner for a while. But the Washington defense tightened up in the second half, and pitched a shutout. However, Rivera decided to bench ineffective QB Dwayne Haskins in favor of backup QB Taylor Heinicke too late, and the home side could only close to within 20-13. That's how it ended, and the 'under' was never in doubt.

The highest total on the board this week was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Detroit Lions (55) game on Saturday afternoon. The Bucs certainly did their part, throwing up 47 points, but the Lions were able to muster up just seven. It was a rough finish, too. The Bucs held a 34-0 lead at halftime, and they were up 47-7 after 45 minutes, but a scoreless fourth quarter had 'over' bettors just shaking their heads in disbelief.

As far as the primetime games were concerned, we covered the Dolphins-Raiders situation above. On Sunday night, the Tennessee Titans-Green Bay Packers (52.5) played in a winter wonderland at Lambeau Field. It was snowing pretty good early on, but tailed off in the end. The teams struggled to get their footing early on, and we had just six points after 15 minutes. Green Bay took a 20-6 lead into halftime, and they were just about halfway to the over, too. After 28 total points in the second half, mostly thanks to the Pack, there were a total of 54 points on the board for a narrow 'over' play. The 'over' is 2-0 in primetime games of Week 16 with Monday's game between the Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots (46.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 27-19 (58.7%) across 46 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 17

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals are finishing up strong, winners of the past two games as underdogs of a touchdown or more, while the Ravens are still playing to get into the playoffs. Baltimore has covered five straight games, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight inside the AFC North, including a dominant 27-3 in Charm City back in Week 5 as 12.5-point favorites, a number similar to this one. The 'under' easily cashed in that game, too.

The Ravens defense has been the story lately, allowing 17 or fewer points in three of the past four games. The exception was that wild 47-42 win in Cleveland on Dec. 14 in Week 14. The Ravens are also 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games on the road, and 8-3 ATS in the previous 11 against teams with a winning record, too. As far as the Bengals are concerned, they have covered five of the past six at home, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five at home as a 'dog. They're also 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight games in the month of January, but 4-0 ATS in the past four games played in Week 17.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys and Giants square off at Met Life Stadium on Sunday, and Dallas is still alive for the NFC East Division title. They need to win, and then turn into the biggest Philadelphia Eagles fans for Sunday Night Football. These teams met back in Big D on Oct. 11 in Week 5, with the Cowboys squeaking out a 37-34 win. That was the day that things changed for the Cowboys, as QB Dak Prescott was knocked out of the game, and it meant a revolving door of QBs Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert due to injuries and COVID-19. Dalton is back healthy and this team might be playing the best football of anyone in the division. Dallas has won three in a row, averaging 36.0 PPG, and they have covered three in a row, too. The G-Men are eliminated from playoff contention now, but boy wouldn't they love to ruin the chance of their rivals from going to the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Titans are probably still thawing out after a bone-chilling loss in Green Bay in the snow. The Titans need to pick up a win in their finale or get some help to make the playoffs. There is a still a chance they could be the odd-man out in the AFC race, so don't expect any let-up in Houston. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight games against teams with a losing record, although they're just 6-19-1 ATS in the past 26 road games against teams with a losing home mark. The Texans were bounced by the Bengals at home in a high-scoring game, and they're now 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning record.

In this series, the Titans are just 1-5 ATS in the past six trips to Houston, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, rarely has their been a Houston team that is this poor and inconsistent, so those trends might not hold much water.

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The WFT heads to the City of Brotherly Love looking to bring an NFC East Division title to D.C. Washington rattled off four straight wins against Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh and San Francisco, and looked like they were going to cruise to the division title. But narrow losses to Seattle and Carolina at home the past two games have them reeling. While they have been inconsistent on offense, total bettors love them at the window. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four for Washington, and 9-2 across the past 11 overall. In Week 1, Washington topped Philadelphia by a 27-17 score as 5.5-point underdogs as the 'over' hit. Philly is also out of the running for the NFC East title due to their loss in Dallas in Week 15, but they could spoil things for Washington. However, the Eagles are ice cold, going 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS across the past seven.

**Udog** · 12-28-2020, 07:19 AM

NFL Odds Week 17: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Somewhat quietly, Mitch Trubisky and the Bears put themselves in position to control their own playoff fate. Chicago, a 4.5-point home underdog to Green Bay in Week 17, makes the playoffs with a win.

NFL Week 16 has the Monday nighter remaining, but NFL Week 17 odds are on the board and gaining traction for several key matchups. The Chicago Bears aim to punch their postseason ticket against the Green Bay Packers, and somehow, someway, the putrid NFC East will be decided.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 17 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 17 Odds

Washington at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington currently leads the NFC East, and Philadelphia is the only outfit in the four-team division that's been eliminated from postseason contention. Washington would have clinched the division with a Week 16 win over Carolina, but lost 20-13. Philly blew its chance to stay in the division chase in a 37-17 road loss to Dallas.

"Washington is a pretty easy team to get a handle on right now. If Dwayne Haskins is starting at QB, they are not an NFL offense and I don't see how they can win an NFL game," Murray said Sunday night. "If they somehow get Alex Smith back for this game, I'd expect them to move to the favorites and have a real shot at winning their first division title since 2015."

The line bounced around a bit in the first hour it was up Sunday night, from Eagles -1 to -2 and back to -1. This matchup got flexed into the Week 17 Sunday night game, with an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

Jaguars at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -13.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis is on the outside looking in after blowing a 24-7 third-quarter lead in a 28-24 loss at Pittsburgh. Seven teams make the AFC playoffs, and the Colts are currently eighth. Meanwhile, Jacksonville won the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes with a 41-17 home loss to Chicago.

The SuperBook opened the Colts -13.5 and stuck there through Sunday night.

Packers at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This may well be the Game of the Week, with Green Bay going for the NFC's No. 1 seed and Chicago controlling its own destiny for a wild-card slot. The Packers tuned up by trucking a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau in the Sunday nighter, and Chicago breezed by host Jacksonville 41-17.

"We opened the Packers -4.5 and closed the betting when Sunday Night Football kicked off," Murray said, noting The SuperBook's standing operating procedure, with this game set to go back up Monday morning. "The Bears control their own destiny here and have been playing well, but I'd expect a lot of public support for the Packers if they keep rolling the way they did tonight against Tennessee."

Cowboys at Giants Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas is 6-9 and New York is 5-10, which in the NFC East means both are in contention for the division title and a playoff spot in this regular-season finale. The Cowboys kept their hopes alive by beating Philadelphia 37-17 in Week 16, and the Giants made things tougher by losing 27-13 at Baltimore.

"We opened this game pick and took money right away on Dallas, which moved us to Cowboys -2," Murray said. "The Cowboys have been playing well the last couple of weeks, and the public will likely be all over them as a cheap favorite with a chance to win the division."

Later Sunday night, Dallas ticked up to -2.5 at The SuperBook.

Steelers at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line looks out of whack, but Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North by erasing a 24-7 third-quarter deficit to beat Indianapolis 28-24, so the Steelers have little for which to play. On the flip side, COVID-hindered Cleveland tumbled to the suddenly plucky New York Jets 23-16, and the Browns have a lot more to play for in Week 17, needing a win to assure a playoff slot.

"This will be all Browns money," Murray said Sunday night. "The Steelers clinched the AFC North today with a win over the Colts, and we think they're likely to rest players next weekend. They had a brutal schedule with a lot of games bunched closely together due to COVID-19, and they probably need a week off more than any other playoff-bound team."

Titans at Texans Odds
Opening line
Titans -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee tumbled to Green Bay 40-14 in the Week 16 Sunday nighter, so the Titans need a Week 16 win to be certain of an AFC playoff spot. Houston, playing out the string, lost to visiting Cincinnati 37-31 Sunday.

The Titans were on the move quickly Sunday night, opening -6 at The SuperBook and moving straight to -7 five minutes later. The line came off the board once the Titans-Packers game started, and it will go back up Monday morning.

Saints at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans hung a 50-burger on Minnesota in a 52-33 Christmas Day home win, clinching the NFC South, but the Saints still have a shot at the NFC's top seed. Carolina, which topped Washington 20-13 on the road, is playing for pride.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -4.5, and the first move came just a few minutes later Sunday night, with New Orleans dipping to -4.

Jets at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Patriots -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York lost its first 13 games this year, yet now has a two-game win streak after stunning the Rams in Week 15, then upending the Browns 20-13 in Week 16. New England, out of the playoffs for the first time since 2008, still has Week 16 work to do, hosting Buffalo in the Monday nighter.

The first move on the Jets-Patriots line was toward suddenly surging New York, as The SuperBook opened New England -5.5 and ticked to -5 about an hour later.

Vikings at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Two teams soon to be making offseason plans get together in this regular-season finale. Minnesota enters off a 52-33 Christmas Day loss at New Orleans, while Detroit got trucked by Tampa Bay 47-7. The Vikings opened -6 at The SuperBook, where there was no line movement Sunday night.

Falcons at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay boatraced host Detroit 47-7 in a Week 16 Saturday tilt to clinch a playoff spot. Atlanta gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, but allowed a late touchdown in a 17-14 road loss Sunday.

The Bucs opened -4.5 and moved to -5.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Ravens at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Like the Jets, the Bengals are on a late-season surge, winning two in a row. After a big home upset of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati went on the road in Week 16 and beat Houston 37-31. The Ravens topped the Giants 27-13 and are currently in the AFC playoffs, with a Week 17 win guaranteeing that slot.

The SuperBook opened the Ravens -10 and jumped straight to -11 within a few minutes Sunday night.

Dolphins at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Buffalo already has the AFC East wrapped up, but still has a shot at the AFC's No. 2 seed, though that's not as valuable as it used to be, since only the top seed gets a bye. The Bills have Week 16 work to do, playing at New England in the Monday nighter, while Miami is coming off a wild, final-seconds 26-25 victory at Las Vegas.

"We opened the Bills -4 and closed the betting when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said, noting the game will go back up Monday morning. "The Titans' (loss) could impact how much Buffalo cares about this game. This could potentially be one of the few games next week that has playoff implications for both teams. It should be a high-volume game."

Chargers at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City needed a late-fourth-quarter touchdown to fend off visiting Atlanta 17-14 Sunday, wrapping up the AFC's top seed and making Week 17 meaningless. Los Angeles beat Denver 19-16 on a last-minute field goal.

With K.C. having nothing to play for, The SuperBook opened at Chargers -2.5, and there was no line movement through Sunday night.

Seahawks at 49ers Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle wrapped up the NFC West with Sunday's 20-9 home victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Defending NFC champ San Francisco, nearing the end of an injury-wracked season, knocked off host Arizona 20-12.

The SuperBook opened the Seahawks -4 and ticked to -3.5 within a few minutes Sunday night.

Raiders at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas' slim playoff hopes evaporated in a wild finish in Sin City on Saturday night, as the Raiders lost to Miami 26-25. Denver fell 19-16 at the Chargers on Sunday and is also just playing for pride in Week 17. The Broncos opened -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Cardinals at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona was a 6-point home favorite against a San Francisco squad using its third-string QB, yet the Cardinals lost 20-12 Saturday and are on the outside looking in for an NFC playoff spot. Los Angeles is in the postseason for the moment, but Sunday's 20-9 loss at Seattle has the Rams needing a win to guarantee a playoff berth.

"We opened Rams -5," Murray said. "The Rams are off two bad performances in a row and now get a Cardinals team that could be fighting for its playoff life. This should be a high-volume game."

The SuperBook took the game off the board Sunday night while awaiting clarity on Jared Goff's status, after the Rams QB suffered a thumb injury in the loss to the Seahawks.

**Udog** · 12-28-2020, 07:22 AM

NFL Betting Tips for Week 17: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The New York Giants took an ugly loss in Week 16 to Baltimore, but thanks to the magic that is the NFC East, there is still a path for them to make the playoffs with a Week 17 victory.

The roulette wheel that is NFL Week 17 betting is one of the wildest slots on the schedule. Playoff pushes and offseason anxiousness mix the motivations in the final week, creating some strange NFL odds and results.

Regardless of teams’ intent, the sharpest betting strategy is always getting the best number for your bet. And with that in mind, we roll out our final NFL betting tips of the regular season with our point spreads and totals to bet now and the lines you should bet later.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6): Bet Now

Talk about a mismatch in motivation. Tampa Bay needs to win this game to lock in the No. 5 seed in the NFC and is coming off a blowout win over Detroit this past Saturday, giving the Bucs an extra day of rest before hosting the Falcons.

Atlanta, on the other hand, suffered another soul-crushing loss, this time to Kansas City on Sunday. The Falcons straight up “Falcon’d it”, dropping a game-clinching interception in the end zone then allowing Patrick Mahomes to score the go-ahead touchdown with just under two minutes remaining in the game. And when Atlanta had a shot to at least force overtime, kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal with 14 seconds left to lose 17-14.

The Buccaneers took a 31-27 win at Atlanta in Week 15 and while the Falcons have fought hard in recent weeks and plenty of players and staff are auditioning for a job in 2021, this spread is only going up. Grab Tampa Bay at -6 while you can.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+2.5): Bet Later

After the way things trickled down in Week 16, the NFC East is very interesting heading into the final slot of schedule. The Cowboys crushed Philadelphia this past Sunday and need to win at New York while getting an “L” from Washington (vs. the Eagles) to steal the division and the NFC booby prize (a home playoff date).

This spread opened Dallas -1.5 and quickly jumped a full point to -2.5, but let’s not forget the G-Men also have a path to the postseason with a victory and a Football Team folly in Week 17. New York has dropped three straight outings while Dallas has won three in a row, however, the revenge of Jason Garrett could be complete in East Rutherford this Sunday.

The contrasting current form and added media hype around the Cowboys’ Week 16 win is inching this spread near a field goal. Dallas hasn’t played well in outdoor venues this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS (pay attention to the Week 17 forecast), so if you’re on New York, you may want to wait and see if you can get +3 or more.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44.5): Bet Now

The Ravens need to win this AFC North finale to get back in the tournament and given the sizable spread (-11.5), they should be able to manage that. But big spreads often mean big scoring and that could be why we’re seeing this Over/Under start to tick up, climbing from 44 to 44.5 points Sunday night.

Baltimore has found its offensive groove. After mustering just 20.6 points per game during a tumultuous stretch from Week 8 to Week 12, the Ravens have erupted for 37 points per contest in their last four outings. Granted, the opposing defenses were far from elite, but the Bengals' stop unit is no prize pig (allowing an average of almost 26 points).

The Cincinnati offense has shown a little fight the past two weeks. The Bengals have posted scores of 27 and 37 points, with backups QB Brandon Allen putting up respectable numbers in relief of the injured Joe Burrow during his four starts. These division foes played Under the total back in October but have paid out for the Over in four of their last six meetings. Take the Over before this total climbs to 45 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Over 49): Bet Later

If you thought the tanking Jaguars were bad, wait until you get a load of the “Zero F#cks” Jags in Week 17. With Trevor Lawrence jerseys ready to roll off the presses in Jacksonville, there's nothing to play for in Indianapolis this Sunday.

The Colts, in stark contrast, have their postseason lives on the line. Not only does Indianapolis have to win in Week 17 but it will need an assist from other AFC teams in the mix to crack the bracket. Bookies are making Indy lay two touchdowns, which should mean plenty of points. But the Jaguars have puttered to just 41 total points the past three games.

I don’t see this Over/Under cracking 50, even with some 49.5-point totals out there. There’s no doubt the lion’s share of the scoring will be on the Colts, who average 27.4 points per home game. That said, Jacksonville’s stop unit is rolling out the red carpet, giving up 112 combined points its past three appearances and allowing an NFL-worst 32.3 points per road game this season. If you’re on this Over, set an alarm to bet it later in the week.

**Udog** · 12-30-2020, 10:39 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 17
Matt Blunt

Week 17 NFL Betting Angles

Somehow the NFL has managed to make it through their entire schedule on date, as Week 17 of the regular season is finally here.

There were plenty of interruptions schedule-wise for the league this year, and some teams definitely got the short end of the stick through no fault of their own (Pittsburgh), but all 32 NFL teams have played 15 games when they were supposed to have, and a full Sunday slate of the wildness that can be Week 17 awaits.

Who's in, who's out, who cares, and who doesn't, are just some of the questions that generally has me being extremely cautious during Week 17 because a lot of the time you just don't know.

For example, Week 17 Sunday Night Football games get flexed in based on relevant playoff importance, and yet five of the last six home teams that have played a SNF Week 17 finale have lost outright.

You know, the teams that the majority of the time are favored in those “win and get in-type” scenarios and they have consistently fallen short in that prime-time spot the last half-decade.

Oddly enough, this year's flexed in game has nothing on the line for the home side in the Philadelphia Eagles, as they are the only NFC East team without a chance at winning the division this week.

The Eagles are in the spoiler role against Washington with rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts getting his third start, and the team that wins the Dallas/N.Y. Giants game earlier in the day will become the biggest Eagles fans out there.

Who knows, maybe the home side having nothing to lose is what helps break that SNF Week 17 streak for home teams.

For now, let's get to what I've found floating out there for the week, as they are both Week 17 and futures applicable.

Who's Hot

17 of the past 20 Super Bowl participants (aka since 2010), have won SU in Week 17 of that season

This can't be considered all that surprising given that at this point in a season, teams that are out of it are in the business of losing to do whatever they can to improve their draft selection.

Playoff bound teams or fringe playoff teams are looking to do everything they can to improve their own path towards a title, so Super Bowl teams winning in the final regular season week should be expected.

Interesting side note here is that of the three teams to lose Week 17 and go on to the Super Bowl that season – Philadelphia in 2017, New England in 2014, and Baltimore in 2012 – all won the Super Bowl that year, so keep the Week 17 results in mind as a reference point when the Super Bowl matchup is determined this year.

This past does bring up some interesting dilemmas in future's outlooks though if you wind up on a team you think may have a bunch of guys rest in Week 17 and ultimately losing the “meaningless” game.

In terms of Super Bowl potential, it may not be as meaningless as it appears.

Last year in Week 17 we saw the Patriots, Seahawks, Vikings, Texans, and Bills all lose, with Seattle and Houston's loss coming to playoff bound squads (San Francisco and Tennessee) in the process.

Houston and Buffalo played a wild 22-19 OT game in the first round of the playoffs before Houston bowed out to Kansas City the next round, the Patriots were shocked at home by Tennessee, and neither Seattle nor Minnesota could manage more than a single win in Wildcard upsets for their squads.

It just seems that a Week 17 loss in whatever form it takes tends to signal the beginning of the end of the year for these teams.

The year before, we saw No. 1 overall seed New Orleans be the only playoff team to lose in Week 17 and they needed to scratch by the Eagles before getting hosed on the no-pass interference call against the Rams in that NFC Championship.

That's a top seed that had everything locked up go through the motions in Week 17.

Could that be a sign of trouble for Kansas City futures this year with them likely resting and mailing it in for Week 17?

Who's Not

Aside from last year's 13-3 O/U record in Week 17, betting every Week 17 game 'under' from 2012-13 through 2018-19 produced a 47-64-1 O/U record vs closing total

Up to you on whether or not to decide if last year's 'over' explosion was an anomaly historically or a potential changing of the guard, but there is just too much history - even dating back prior to 2012 season – that has me on the side of last year being the outlier and 'unders' still generally the way to look at totals in Week 17 action.

Not once in any of those seven seasons did the Week 17 market as a whole finish with a winning 'over' record, as 8-8 O/U in 2018, and 2016 were the best it got for 'over' bettors.

The fact that those two .500 years combined with last year's 13-3 O/U record could be seen as support for 'overs' starting to connect at a better pace in the final week of the year, but there also wasn't really a whole lot to be decided last year outside of playoff seeding – as opposed to berths – like there is this year, and in these win-and-in scenarios, tightness on offense and strong defense tend to work there way into those games.

Over-Under (O/U) Week 17 Results

2019: 13-3
2018: 8-8
2017: 7-9
2016: 8-8
2015: 5-11
2014: 6-10
2013: 6-10

But when 2018 was 8-8 O/U, 2017 finished 7-9 O/U, 2016 came in at 8-8 O/U, 2015 was 5-11 O/U, 2014 and 2013 went 6-10 O/U in Week 17, and 2012 went 7-8-1 O/U, I've got no problem having initial 'under' leans everywhere and weeding out the suspect lines of thought from there.

It's still early in the week and there have already been multiple Week 17 NFL totals move multiple points in both directions.

It's those games I'd start with if 'under' is a serious consideration, looking to potentially poke holes in any 'over' argument for the totals that have already been bumped up – because now you are getting extra points to work with – or be willing to fire immediately on the totals that have already moved lower if your own numbers still believe an 'under' play to be applicable.

Chances are you'll be passing more on the latter and spending more time on the former and elsewhere on the board in that scenario, and that's alright too.

Remember, Week 17 brings some wildness to it every season. Why put too much strain on your bankroll during it with the playoffs – and no motivation issues – are a week away.

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