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**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 08:58 AM

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Tampa Bay 26, Minnesota 14
— Buccaneers hold on to #6 seed in NFC with this win.
— Tampa Bay is 8-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Buccaneers sacked Cousins six times.
— Tampa Bay averaged 8.5 ypa, Minnesota 4.0

— Vikings’ kicker missed three FGs and an extra point.
— Minnesota is 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as road underdogs, 3-1 TY.
— All six Viking road games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota is one game out of last Wild Card slot, with three weeks left.

Kansas City 33, Miami 27
— On first three drives, Mahomes threw two INTs, took a 30-yard sack.
— On drives 4-7, Chiefs ran 19 plays for 219 yards, scored three TD’s.
— Chiefs won their last eight games overall.
— Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (4-3 ATS)

— Miami loses for only second time in their last nine games.
— Dolphins allowed Kansas City to gain 9.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Miami is 2-5 this season when it allows more than 17 points.
— Dolphins have 15 takeaways in last six games (+9)

Green Bay 31, Lions 24
— Green Bay won five of last six games, scoring 33.3 ppg in last four.
— Packers scored 30+ points in nine of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay’s first two drives: 15 plays, 144 yards, 14 points.
— Packers are now tied with Saints for top seed in the NFC.

— Lions lost their last four games with Green Bay, 42-21/31-24 this year.
— Detroit gave up 379 rushing yards in two games with the Packers.
— Game was 14-all at half, but Lions threw ball 40 passes, ran it only 15 times.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in six of its last seven games.

Tennessee 31, Jaguars 10
— Tennessee ran the ball for 249 yards; Henry had 215 of them.
— Titans won five of their six road games this year.
— Tennessee ran 65 plays, only nine of them on third down.
— Titans remain tied for first with Colts in AFC South.

— Jaguars lost their last 12 games, after winning their opener.
— Jacksonville lost seven of last eight games vs Tennessee
— Jaguars gained 81 yards, had only five first downs in first half.
— Minshew replaced Glennon at QB, threw for 178 yards.

Cowboys 30, Cincinnati 7
— Andy Dalton returned to Cincinnati and got a win.
— Cowboys win for only 2nd time in their last eight games.
— First time this year Dallas won a game by more than 3 points.
— Cowboys scored their first TD on a 78-yard fumble return.

— Bengals lost last five games by a combined 124-50.
— Cincinnati has only five TD’s on its last 53 drives.
— Bengals lost three fumbles, were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Cincinnati actually outgained the Cowboys, 309-272

Arizona 26, NJ Giants 7
— Arizona’s first two drives started in Giant territory; they scored only 3 points.
— Cardinals were in red zone seven times, scored 26 points.
— Arizona allowed only 10 first downs, had 8 sacks.
— Cardinals re-gained the 7-ssed in NFC, the last playoff spot.

— Giants lost for first time in their last five games.
— Giants fumbled five times, lost three of them.
— Giants are 3-13 ATS in last 16 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Chicago 36, Houston 7
— Complete no-show by Houston; they were outgained 410-263
— Texans in second half: 34 plays, 89 yards, 9 first downs, no points.
— Houston is 0-8 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans averaged only 4.2 yards/pass attempt.

— Chicago’s first play was an 80-yard TD run by Montgomery.
— Bears snaps six-game skid with this resounding win.
— Chicago sacked Texans’ QB’s seven times.
— Bears are 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home dog, 3-2 TY.

Broncos 32, Panthers 27
— Denver won for only second time in last eight games.
— Broncos are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as road underdogs, 5-2 TY.
— Denver’s first score was an 83-yard punt return by Spencer.
— Denver averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt, their best mark of the year.

— Carolina lost seven of its last eight games.
— Panthers are 10-18 ATS in last 28 games as home favorites, 0-3 TY.
— Carolina is 0-9 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers’ only TD drive came on a 3-yard drive after a fumble.

Colts 44, Raiders 27
— Colts won six of their last eight games.
— Indy had ball 8 times, scored 4 TD’s, kicked 3 field goals.
— Colts are 7-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 79-23 in 2nd half.

— Las Vegas lost three of last four games, giving up 37.5 ppg.
— Raiders lost four of their six home games.
— Over is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 11 TD’s on 32 drives.

Seattle 40, NJ Jets 3
— Winless Jets are 4-9 ATS, covering four of last six games.
—Jets had ball 7 times in first half, tried 4 FG’s, but missed 3 of them.
— Jets have been outscored 97-44 in 2nd half of their last eight games.
— Jets are 9-21-2 ATS in last 32 games as road dogs, 1-5 TY.

— Seattle is 4-4 in its last eight games, after a 5-0 start.
— Seahawks ran ball for 174 yards, outgained Jets 410-185.
— Seattle is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Last five Seattle games stayed under the total.

LA Chargers 20, Atlanta 17
— Chargers kicked a 43-yard FG at the gun to snap a 5-game skid.
— Atlanta had ball four times in 2nd half, threw three INT’s.
— Teams combined to convert 18 of 27 third down plays.
— Falcons had ball in red zone three times, scored only 10 points.

— Chargers screwed up clock management at end of 1st half, had ball on 8-yard line but didn’t score.
— This was first time in ten games Chargers allowed fewer than 27 points.
— Atlanta led six of its last eight games at halftime; they won 4 of those games.
— Chargers are 3-4 SU at home, beating Jets/Jaguars/Falcons.

Eagles 24, Saints 21
— New Orleans had its eight game win streak snapped.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 93 yards, 5 first downs, no points.
— Saints were outgained 413-358; Hill was sacked five times.
— New Orleans/Green Bay are tied for #1 seed in the NFC.

— Rookie QB Hurts threw for 167 yards, ran for 106 more, won his first NFL start.
— Eagles snapped a 4-game skid, running ball for 246 yards.
— Philly is 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles missed a 22-yard FG at end of first half, when they led 17-0- it is the shortest missed FG in the NFL this season.

Washington 23, San Francisco 15
— Washington’s defense scored two TD’s; their offense didn’t have a TD.
— Washington won five of last seven games, covered six of last eight
— Washington outscored last six opponents 108-30 in second half.
— Washington is 18-12-1 ATS in last 31 games as a road underdog.

— 49ers lost five of their last six games SU.
— SF is 5-15 SU in last 20 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers had ball six times in 2nd quarter: 21 plays, 37 yards, 2 turnovers,
no points.
— SF outgained Washington 344-193; their three turnovers killed them.

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 08:58 AM

Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Eagles (+7.5, ML +290) vs. Saints, 24-21
Broncos (+4, ML +170) at Panthers, 32-27
Washington (+3, ML +130) at 49ers, 23-15

The largest favorites to cover

Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Jets, 40-3
Titans (-7.5) at Jaguars, 31-10
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Vikings, 26-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Chicago Bears game had a total of 46.5. If you were an 'over' bettor, you might have started celebrating a little bit at halftime. The Bears, who average just 21.7 points per game, scored 23 points in the second quarter, taking a 30-7 lead into the break. Over bettors needed just 10 total points in the second half and they would be holding a winning ticket.

However, in the second half, the Texans offense continued to struggle, and the Bears were able to cobble together a pair of drives for field goals, winning 36-7. Under (46.5) bettors were left shaking their heads after it looks like an 'over' result was all but in the bag. Houston has now hit the under in four of the past five games, and Chicago has hit the under in seven of the previous 10.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins battle was a huge disappointment if you were holding a Chiefs (-7) ticket, and it wasn't terrible enjoyable if you were an 'under' (51.5) bettor, either.

QB Patrick Mahomes and company were leading 14-10 at halftime, and they put their foot on the gas in the third quarter and extended the lead to 30-10, including a 67-yard punt return for score by WR Mecole Hardman, and a safety. Things were looking up if you were laying the touchdown, but that's always a tough cover on the road.

The Dolphins stormed back with a pair of touchdowns, cutting Kansas City's lead to 30-24. QB Tua Tagovailoa had the 1-yard plunge with 4:15 to go, and that clinched the 'over'.

With just 68 seconds remaining in regulation, PK Harrison Butker booted a 46-yard field goal, and the Chiefs were up 33-24. It appeared they might have gotten the cover back. However, the Dolphins moved the ball down the field and elected to kick the 44-yard field goal first, since they needed two scores. That cut the lead back to 33-27, and it was like losing twice for Chiefs side bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Philadelphia Eagles (42.5) matchup. Instead of QB Drew Brees vs. QB Carson Wentz, it was Taysom Hill-Jalen Hurts, as Brees is out with an injury to his ribs, and Wentz was benched last week in favor of the more mobile rookie.

The game got off to a slow start after a scoreless first quarter, and the Saints didn't get their first points until the third quarter, cutting a 17-0 lead to 17-14. Under bettors were still looking good with 6:22 to play, as the Eagles saw RB Miles Sanders score his second touchdown of the game, making it 24-14. But with 1:24 to go, TE Jared Cook made a tremendous grab in the back of the end zone to make it 24-21. That was the final score, much to the dismay of 'under' bettors.

The highest total on Sunday was the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions (56) tilt, and they tried late to make it go 'over'. The Packers scored seven or more points in each their four quarters, including a total of 20 combined points.

If you bet this game early in the week, you might have gotten the line at 55, for a push, or even at 54 briefly, for an over. But since it closed at 56, we'll officially call it an under.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, the New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams (43.5) game easily went 'under', and it was never really in doubt. The Rams scratched out a 24-3 win over the Pats, cooling them off. In chilly conditions with flurries in western New York, the Buffalo Bills upended the Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5) by a 26-15 count, yet another under for primetime bettors with the Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns (45.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 26-15 (63.4%) across 41 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Chargers slapped the breaks on an 0-6 ATS skid with a win and cover over the Falcons on Sunday, 20-17. Previous to Sunday's game against Atlanta, the Bolts only had a victory over the winless New York Jets since Oct. 25, or Week 7. That includes a 31-26 setbvack against the Raiders at SoFi Stadium in L.A., as Las Vegas cover a one-point number as road favorites as the 'over' (52) connected.

The Raiders were drummed 44-27 at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther as a result, naming Rod Marinelli as the interim DC. The Raiders have allowed 28 or more points in four straight, and 43 or more points in two of the previous three. Vegas enters Thursday's game on an 0-3 ATS skid after a 4-0 ATS run from Weeks 8 through 11.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Panthers were toppled 32-27 by the Denver Broncos at home on Sunday, failing to cover as the 'over' (46.5) connected. Carolina has lost nine games this season, but seven have been one-score games. They covered in their most recent road game against an NFC North team, the Minnesota Vikings, but they're 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in three games vs. the North this season.

For the Packers, they clinched the NFC North Division title with a win in Detroit, but they will likely keep their foot on the gas since there is just one bye at stake in this season's playoffs, so expect them to continue bringing their best. Green Bay has won three in a row since an overtime setback at Indianapolis in Week 11, and they're 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in six home games at Lambeau Field this season.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts picked up a 26-20 victory on the road against the Texans in Week 13, and now they meet again just two weeks later. If you remember, QB Deshaun Watson had a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter in the red zone, as the Texans were driving for a much-needed, and rare, win. As such, the Colts picked up the win and cover as 3.5-point favorites, moving to 4-1 ATS across the past five, while the 'over' is also 4-1 during the span.

The Texans have managed just 13.5 PPG across the past two games, while allowing 31.0 PPG, going 0-2 SU/ATS during the span as the 'under' has cashed. The under is also 4-1 in their previous five, including that game against Indy.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Steelers are on a two-game skid after opening the season 11-0 SU. That includes back-to-back losses to the Washington Football Team and the Bills, and they're 0-3 ATS across the past three. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-0-1 in the previous six, including a push on the total in a 36-10 win over the Bengals in Week 10, easily covering a 6.5-point number.

The Bengals offense is in disarray since losing QB Joe Burrow (knee) to a season-ending injury in Week 11 in Washington. Since the third quarter of that game they have managed just 31 points across the past 14 quarters.

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 08:59 AM

NFL Odds Week 15: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Alvin Kamara and the Saints put together a nine-game win streak, but will start anew after a Week 14 loss. New Orleans has a tough Week 15 chore, sitting as a 4-point home underdog to Kansas City.

NFL Week 14 has some Monday unfinished business, but NFL Week 15 odds won't be denied, with several games already seeing action. A key AFC-NFC matchup highlights the schedule, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the New Orleans Saints, and the Seattle Seahawks travel to face the surprisingly surging Washington Football Team.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 15 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 15 Odds

Chargers at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -3, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Las Vegas is now on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs and very much needs a win Thursday night, after getting run out of its own building 44-27 by Indianapolis in Week 14. Los Angeles, which has lost seven one-score games this season, finally won one Sunday at home, edging Atlanta 20-17 on a final-second field goal.

"We opened the Chargers +3 (-120) and are still there," Murray said Sunday evening. "We took a number of bets on the Chargers on our look-ahead number (+3.5) and would definitely expect wiseguys to get involved on the Chargers if the number goes any higher."

Texans at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -7.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Indianapolis put a 40-plus burger on Las Vegas in Week 14, notching a 44-27 road victory to improve its playoff hopes. On the flip side, Houston went to the Windy City and got blown away in a 36-7 loss.

The SuperBook opened the Colts at -7.5, and perhaps surprisingly, the first move was toward the Texans, as the line ticked to -7 later Sunday night.

Panthers at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -9, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Green Bay got a little more than it expected at Detroit, especially in the first half, but notched a 31-24 Week 14 victory and is currently the NFC's top playoff seed. Carolina went off as a 4-point home favorite against Denver and lost outright 32-27.

The Packers opened -9 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.

Bills at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver went to Carolina and came away with a modest upset in a 32-27 victory Sunday. Buffalo notched an impressive 26-15 home win over Pittsburgh in the Week 14 Sunday nighter, the Bills' third straight win and sixth in seven games as they solidified their spot atop the AFC East.

The Bills opened -4, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the game came off the board during the Steelers-Bills Sunday night game. Bills-Broncos will go back up Monday morning.

Lions at Titans Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
Tennessee rebounded from its home loss to Cleveland by plowing over Jacksonville 31-10 on the road Sunday. Detroit made Green Bay work a bit, but fell short at home 31-24, and quarterback Matthew Stafford left in the fourth quarter with a rib injury.

The SuperBook held off posting the Lions-Titans matchup while awaiting clarity on Stafford's status.

Jets at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -16.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved
Los Angeles benefits from the mini-bye this week, after routing New England 24-3 in the Week 14 Thursday nighter. Meanwhile, New York remains winless (0-13 SU, 4-9 ATS) after getting boatraced 40-3 at Seattle on Sunday.

The Rams opened at a hefty -16.5, up three points from last week's look-ahead number at The SuperBook. Later Sunday night, Los Angeles stretched a tick higher to -17.

Buccaneers at Falcons Odds
Opening line
Falcons +3.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay lost two in a row and three of four, putting their playoff position in peril, but bounced back Sunday with a 26-14 home win over Minnesota. Atlanta came up short at the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 20-17 on a final-seconds field goal.

The Buccaneers opened -3.5 Sunday evening and within a few minutes moved to -4 at The SuperBook.

Patriots at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -3, Over/Under 42.5

Why the line moved
Miami gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City a game, but just didn't have enough in a 33-27 Week 14 home loss. New England went to Los Angeles and got belted 24-3 by the Rams in the Thursday nighter, so at the least, the Patriots will have a little more rest this week.

"We opened the game Dolphins -3 (-110), took some money on the Patriots and moved to Patriots +2.5," Murray said. "It will be interesting to see how the rookie Tua Tagovailoa fares in his first match up with Bill Belichick."

Seahawks at Washington Odds
Opening line
WFT +3.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
Washington topped San Francisco 23-15 Sunday, playing at the Arizona Cardinals' stadium, and has now won and cashed four in a row to take control of the plodding NFC East. Seattle bounced back from its shocking home loss to the New York Giants by bashing the New York Jets 40-3 at home.

"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4.5," Murray said. "The move makes sense. Seattle righted the ship today against the Jets, and the public will be all over the Seahawks in this game, even after seeing Football Team win a few in a row and move into first place. Books will be rooting for 'Team' pretty big on Sunday."

Bears at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved
Chicago surprisingly pulled it together in Week 14, flattening Houston 36-7 to snap a six-game skid (1-5 ATS). Minnesota, meanwhile, fell at Tampa Bay 26-14. Bears-Vikings was on the move right away Sunday night, with Minnesota down a half-point to -3 (-120).

"We opened Bears +3.5 and took money right away on Chicago. Our look-ahead line on that game was too high," Murray said, alluding to the Vikings -6.5 look-ahead number posted last week. "The Bears are a different beast with Akiem Hicks in there."

The defensive end helped Chicago put the clamps on Deshaun Watson and the Texans.

Jaguars at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -12.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville had little answer for Tennessee on Sunday, losing at home 31-10. Baltimore still has Week 14 work to do in the Monday nighter at Cleveland. The SuperBook went ahead and installed the Ravens as 12.5-point favorites, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Browns at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York's impressive runs of 4-0 SU and 5-1 ATS came to a crashing halt on its home field in Sunday's 26-7 loss to Arizona. Cleveland is on a four-game win streak, but still has unfinished Week 14 business, with a key home game Monday night against Baltimore.

"We opened the Browns -3.5 and are still there," Murray said. "It's funny to see this game flexed to Sunday night. I wonder if the NFL is regretting that after the Giants' performance today. We’ll need the Giants, but I don’t think it’ll be as high volume of a game as the Chiefs-Saints game that afternoon or a typical Sunday night matchup."

Eagles at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
Arizona got a much-needed 26-7 win at the New York Giants, pulling into the NFC's seventh and final playoff spot for the moment. Philadelphia, with rookie QB Jalen Hurts starting, entered its game against New Orleans as a 7.5-point home 'dog and exited with a 24-21 outright upset.

The Cardinals opened -5.5 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Chiefs at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints +3.5, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved
Patrick Mahomes had an errant game against Miami, throwing three interceptions Sunday. But after falling behind 10-0, Kansas City scored 30 consecutive points and hung on for a 33-27 road win. That's more than New Orleans could say after its nine-game SU win streak and five-game ATS run surprisingly ended in a 24-21 loss at Philadelphia.

"We opened the Chiefs -3.5 and were quickly bet up to -4," Murray said. "This will be the biggest-handle game of Week 15. The public will be squarely on the Chiefs, especially after seeing the Saints lose today in Philadelphia."

49ers at Cowboys Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Dallas halted a 1-6 SU skid (2-5 ATS) by coasting past host Cincinnati 30-7 in Week 14. San Francisco became Washington's latest victim, losing 23-15 in the Niners' short-term home at the Arizona Cardinals' stadium.

"We had this game at pick’em, and we took a bet on the 49ers right away. We are at San Francisco -1 now," Murray said Sunday evening, a couple of hours before the Niners stretched to -2 on more sharp action at The SuperBook. "San Francisco is a very depleted team, and it showed today, but Dallas has plenty of problems of its own. Good move by the NFL flexing this game out of Sunday night. I don't think it’ll be a high-volume game."

Steelers at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +12, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati, just trying to ride out this season after losing rookie QB Joe Burrow, was no match for Dallas in a 30-7 home loss Sunday. Pittsburgh got out of the gate this season 11-0, but has now lost two in a row after a 26-15 setback at Buffalo in the Week 14 Sunday nighter.

Still, it was easy for The SuperBook to make the Steelers double-digit favorites at -12 in the Week 15 Monday night game. The game came off the board during the Steelers-Bills tilt and will go back on the board Monday morning.

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 08:59 AM

NFL Betting Tips for Week 15: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Indianapolis Colts offense has picked up the pace, making them one of the top two-way teams in the NFL heading into the home stretch of the season. Books have the Colts as 7-point home chalk versus Houston in Week 15.

When we started this crazy train called the 2020 NFL season, Week 15 was a stop on the schedule we weren’t quite sure we’d make it to. And while the track has bent a few times due to COVID-19 outbreaks, we have officially hit the home stretch.

Regardless of what’s happened along the way – and there’s been plenty – the best NFL betting strategy way back in Week 1 remains the best approach for the Week 15 odds: get the best of the number. To do so, you’ve got to time your NFL picks perfectly.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and the best to bet later.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7): Bet Now

The Colts dismantled the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, cruising to a 44-27 victory as 2.5-point road faves in Sin City. Indianapolis’ offense is starting to match strides with its defense (averaging 32.5 points over its last four outings), which is a scary thought for the rest of the AFC.

Oddsmakers pegged the Colts as low as 6-point home chalk on last week’s lookahead lines, but after running over the Raiders and the Texans’ 36-7 tumble in Chicago, Indy officially opened at -7 and this line has already jumped to -7.5 at some sharper books.

The Colts are 9-4 SU and tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South. And with the Titans hosting downtrodden Detroit in Week 15, this homestand versus Houston is a must-win matchup for Frank Reich’s squad. Indianapolis beat the Texans 26-20 in Houston two weeks ago, covering as 3.5-point road chalk, and won’t be sitting at a touchdown much longer for Sunday's clash. Get the Colts at -7 while you can.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+4): Bet Later

This spread has already made some serious moves, so if you’re leaning toward New Orleans you might as well wait it out. Books posted Kansas City as low as a 3-point road favorite and that field-goal spread didn’t last long, with money on the visitor powering this spread through the key number to -3.5 and eventually landing on -4 as of Sunday night.

Granted, the Chiefs didn’t look great in their win over the Miami Dolphins, first spotting the Fins 10 points out of the gates then blowing a 30-10 lead, to the dismay of K.C. bettors laying -7.5. The Chiefs allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter and squeezed out a 33-27 victory at Hard Rock Stadium. But at least they didn’t lose to the Eagles.

Nothing piles on the points like losing to a lowly NFC East team, as well as a rookie quarterback making his first start. The Saints played a sloppy game in Philadelphia and fell 24-21 as 7.5-point road faves. New Orleans was hoping to have Drew Brees back for this potential Super Bowl preview, but it doesn’t look like the veteran gunslinger is healthy enough. That’s too bad, because this Taysom Hill-lead offense has looked flat the past two weeks and isn’t ready for a shootout with Patrick Mahomes & Co.

With the spread at K.C. -4, it won’t take much more action to move this line and move it quickly. Bookmakers are hasty to adjust through dead numbers (margins of victory that don’t occur often) and if the public piles on the Chiefs, I could see this sitting -5 or maybe even -5.5 by gameday. If you like NOLA, hold off and see how high this will go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Under 51.5): Bet Now

Neither offense is setting the scoreboard ablaze the past month, with the Tampa Toms averaging less than 25 points over the past three outings and Matt Ryan and the Falcons floundering for scores of nine, 16 and 17 points in three of their past four contests.

But, on the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have held more than their own. The Buccaneers defense has limited foes to only 22.6 points per game on the season while Atlanta has flexed its defensive muscles since canning Dan Quinn in mid-October, giving up an average of just over 20 points per game over its last eight appearances.

These NFC South rivals have yet to play each other in 2020, with Sunday marking the first of two meetings in the final three weeks of the schedule. This Over/Under opened 51.5 and the vig on the Under is starting to climb to -115 at most books, with select markets already dropping to 51 points. If you plan to plunder the Under, get all the points you can now.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Over 47): Bet Later

The total for this NFC North contest opened at 47 points and is already ticking downward with the number getting as low as 46 at some books Sunday night. Truthfully, this is a tough total to tackle in Week 15 with the Bears' production about as easy to plot as a drunken stumble home from the bar (if bars were still a thing. Thanks COVID... you dick).

Chicago unleashed 36 points on Houston in Week 14, a week removed from a 30-point showing against Detroit. In fact, over the past three games, the Bears have scored more points (91) than they did in the previous five games combined (86), including a 19-13 loss to Minnesota that stayed Under 44.5 points in Week 10. Glad to see that Nick Foles money going to good use. Yeesh.

The Vikings were tripped up in Tampa this past Sunday, starting out strong but watching kicker Dan Bailey botch kick after kick, which sucked all the energy out of the Minnesota offense. The Vikes are in dire need of a victory to stay in the postseason picture and score plenty of points on the fast indoor turf of U.S. Bank Stadium (29.1 points per home game). The Over/Under trends between these divisional foes scream Under (3-6 O/U last nine meetings) but if you’re into bucking the trends and taking the Over, be patient and see if this dips below 46 points.

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 09:00 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 15
Matt Blunt

Week 15 NFL Betting Angles

Fifteen weeks into the NFL season and I'm getting excited for this regular season to conclude, if for no other reason then it's getting harder and harder to find significant and actionable patterns in all the raw data each week to craft this piece.

Streaks and runs that I've brought up in the recent past all eventually come to an end – fading the highest-scoring team over their past three games and backing the lowest-scoring team in their past three games went 0-2 ATS on Sunday (fade Tennessee, back Cincinnati) – which was to be expected from someone like me who believes riding streaks in this industry is flawed to begin with.

Those same two teams – Tennessee and Cincinnati – enter Week 15 in those same roles (fade Tennessee, play on Cincinnati) in the PPG over the last three situations.

But riding streaks is still a popular way to approach handicapping games, so this week's piece is for all the streak chasers out there that may prefer to use this year's data only.

It's actionable enough for this week for a few specific games, but as always, should only be used as support – if they so choose - for one's overall argument in why to back a team.

The following information also suggests the limitations there are with riding streaks from a pure numbers standpoint in oddsmakers adjusting spreads (and totals), so keep that in mind as well.

Hopefully I can continue to find the patterns in the raw data these next two weeks, but for Week 15, let's go with this:

Who's Hot

-- The Philadelphia Eagles have never won two straight games ATS in 2020
-- The New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have not lost two straight games ATS in 2020

Thanks to the Dolphins late comeback and squeaking through the back door against Kansas City on Sunday, they actually aren't applicable in Week 15, but after the Eagles won and covered against New Orleans, and the Giants lost both SU and ATS to Arizona, we've now got those two NFC East teams in roles of fade and play on in Week 15.

Fading the Eagles means that backing the Arizona Cardinals – the team to just beat NYG – as favorites of around a TD currently would make the card.

Who Could You Follow in Week 15?

New York Giants
Arizona Cardinals

Based on what we've seen last, going against the underdog Eagles will be tough for some to stomach given they looked like a team that was completely rejuvenated with the quarterback switch they made handing things over to rookie Jalen Hurts.

Hurts and the Eagles offense did a lot of things that worked against one of the league's top defenses on Sunday, and now they get to face a Cardinals team that's got a defense that's a huge step back (statistically) then what the Eagles saw from New Orleans.

Interestingly enough, another Hurts start this week pits the last two Oklahoma Sooners QB's against one another, the second time in their young careers that Hurts and Kyler Murray will share a field with one another.

The first came back in the 2018 College Football Playoff semifinal game between Oklahoma and Alabama, when Hurts was the backup QB for Alabama in a 45-34 win by the Crimson Tide.

Hurts will throw more than one pass attempt this time around though, but at the same time, you can't take a whole lot away from Arizona and how thoroughly they dominated the Giants. That same New York team that is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) and probably should have swept the season series with Philadelphia.

The Eagles are a different team now with the QB switch, but it's still a rookie QB making his first career road start, historically a bad situation for backing said rookies.

But as has been the case in 2020, rookie QB's making their first road start has completely flipped (4-0 ATS) - thanks to no screaming fans - as there has been a 35-30 loss (but ATS win) for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati @ Cleveland, a 34-31 SU win (and ATS win) for Tua Tagovailoa and Miami @ this same Arizona Cardinals team, a 38-31 SU loss (but ATS win) for Justin Herbert and LAC @ Tampa Bay, and a 24-20 SU loss (but ATS win) for Jake Luton and Jacksonville vs Green Bay.

So pick which streak you want to side with there.

Backing the New York Giants this week means that you'll be taking points with them at home vs Cleveland on Sunday Night Football, a line that will undoubtedly react to whatever the Browns performance on Monday Night Football turns out to be. As of this writing – three hours before MNF – New York is catching +3.5 most places as the home 'dog there, a number that likely won't drop too much further should Cleveland put up a stinker vs Baltimore, but one that will surely grow should the Browns go out and win convincingly on MNF.

It's the second straight week in this piece that the suggestion has been to go against Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The Cleveland Browns as a “hunted” team is such a new concept to wrap your head around this year after so many years of futility, and yet, even in situations that have nothing to directly do with Cleveland, we can still find positive situations for their opponent to suggest fading Cleveland like the popular choice has been for years. That's got to feel like par for the course for Browns fans.

My apologies.

Who's Not

No NFL team this year has had an ATS winning streak of longer than 5 games

So you want to subscribe to riding ATS streaks huh?

Well, what if I told you that only 10 of the 32 teams this year have had losing ATS streaks of more than three games?

What about winning ATS streaks of more than three games only happening for 10 of the 32 NFL teams as well?

Sure, every game and team should be taken under their own consideration and merits, but this year in the NFL, good and bad ATS runs seem to get capped out at three games. The worst of those was Dallas starting 0-8 ATS, with a six-game losing streak against the number for the L.A. Chargers and N.Y. Jets coming in a close 2nd.

The other two teams to go on five-game losing ATS runs – Arizona and Jacksonville – each covered the number the following week (Arizona was this past week vs Giants), and interestingly enough, it's the Kansas City Chiefs who are next up in Week 15 having dropped their last five against the number.

Who Could You Fade in Week 15?

Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs visit New Orleans on SNF which you know will be hyped up in those awful ways I mentioned last week, but this is not about finding an outside-of-the-box reason to back a KC team that looks to be the best in football.

It's about fading the one team that comes into Week 15 on a 5-0 ATS run currently; the Buffalo Bills.

Only WWE commissioner Vince McMahon has a bigger annual budget for breakable tables than "Bills Mafia" members do, although that could have changed with how flush Bills backers bankrolls are right now having gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS their last five games, the lone loss coming on Kyler Murray's walk-off Hail Mary a few weeks back in the desert.

Buffalo's got a quicker turnaround this week with a Saturday date in Denver against the Broncos, and off their SNF win over Pittsburgh, an opening number of Buffalo -5.5 has already jumped a full point. Buffalo is also the 4th NFL team this year to have a shot at covering the spread in six consecutive games, with Pittsburgh (-14 chalk vs Dallas), Miami (-4 chalk vs Denver), and New Orleans (-7.5 chalk vs Philadelphia) all failing in their previous bids to cover six in a row.

Finally, it's interesting to see the Denver Broncos already responsible for stopping one of those previous five-game ATS streaks as a home underdog against another AFC East franchise.

Hard not to have the saying “history always repeats itself” come to mind there. Four of the five Bills games during this streak have had them close in the +/- 3 range, with the home game against the Chargers seeing Buffalo close at -4.5.

So how many points is too many here?

One more note, Washington enters Week 15 on a four-game ATS run, so keep an eye on what they do in Week 15 as home dogs vs Seattle.

Another ATS victory there would put Washington in this fade role in Week 16 when they host Carolina.

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 09:01 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 17

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 9) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 6) - 12/17/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 86-115 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 86-115 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 39-68 ATS (-35.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 45-87 ATS (-50.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 3-2 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 19

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CAROLINA (4 - 9) at GREEN BAY (10 - 3) - 12/19/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 205-149 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (10 - 3) at DENVER (5 - 8) - 12/19/2020, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 20

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HOUSTON (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 4) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (5 - 8) at TENNESSEE (9 - 4) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 152-192 ATS (-59.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 13) at LA RAMS (9 - 4) - 12/20/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 9) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 7) at MIAMI (8 - 5) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-215 ATS (+39.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-215 ATS (+39.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-52 ATS (+33.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 212-157 ATS (+39.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-95 ATS (+27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-61 ATS (+25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 4) at WASHINGTON (6 - 7) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (6 - 7) at MINNESOTA (6 - 7) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 58-88 ATS (-38.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 12) at BALTIMORE (7 - 5) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (9 - 3) at NY GIANTS (5 - 8) - 12/20/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 8 - 1) at ARIZONA (7 - 6) - 12/20/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (12 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) - 12/20/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 8) at DALLAS (4 - 9) - 12/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 21

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 2) at CINCINNATI (2 - 10 - 1) - 12/21/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 09:03 AM

NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 17

LA Chargers @ Las Vegas
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Las Vegas's last 13 games

Saturday, December 19

Buffalo @ Denver
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games at home

Carolina @ Green Bay
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Carolina

Sunday, December 20

Houston @ Indianapolis
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Houston

Detroit @ Tennessee
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Chicago @ Minnesota
Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago's last 18 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay

Seattle @ Washington
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Jacksonville @ Baltimore
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

New England @ Miami
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

San Francisco @ Dallas
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

NY Jets @ LA Rams
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Philadelphia @ Arizona
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home

Kansas City @ New Orleans
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Cleveland @ NY Giants
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games

Monday, December 21

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

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**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 09:05 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 09:05 AM

301LA CHARGERS -302 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 0-13 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

341HOUSTON -342 INDIANAPOLIS
HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

343CAROLINA -344 GREEN BAY
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

345BUFFALO -346 DENVER
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

347DETROIT -348 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

349NY JETS -350 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

351TAMPA BAY -352 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) since 1992.

353NEW ENGLAND -354 MIAMI
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

355SEATTLE -356 WASHINGTON
SEATTLE is 55-25 ATS (27.5 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

357CHICAGO -358 MINNESOTA
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 01:27 PM

NFL Week 15 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Washington quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf and sat out the second half of a win over the 49ers. His Week 15 status is uncertain, and WFT quickly moved from +3.5 to +5 against Seattle.

NFL Week 14 wrapped up on time Monday night, and it's on to NFL Week 15 odds, with several betting factors already in play. That includes the typical injury information, including Washington potentially being without quarterback Alex Smith and running back Antonio Gibson.

Week 15 Injuries

Washington Football Team: Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a strained calf in the first half of Washington's win over San Francisco and sat out the second half. His status is uncertain Sunday at home against Seattle, as is the status of running back Antonio Gibson (turf toe), who didn't play against the 49ers. The SuperBook opened WFT +3.5, and that number shot to +4.5 Sunday night and to +5 Monday morning. The total opened at 43 and ticked up to 43.5 Monday.

Carolina Panthers: Running back Christian McCaffrey couldn't make Week 14, but it looks as if he'll be on the field for a Saturday night game at Green Bay. McCaffrey was set to return from a shoulder injury last week, then suffered a thigh injury in practice. Carolina opened +9 at The SuperBook on Sunday evening and moved to +8.5 Monday morning.

Detroit Lions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford hurt his ribs late in a Week 14 home loss to Green Bay, and his status for a Week 15 Sunday tilt at Tennessee won't be determined until later in the week. As such, the Lions-Titans game is off the board Monday at The SuperBook.

Miami Dolphins: Wideouts DeVante Parker (leg) and Jakeem Grant (hamstring), and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) all got hurt in Sunday's loss to Kansas City. As of Monday, the status for all three is uncertain, with Grant appearing the least likely to play in Sunday's home game against New England. The early line movement at The SuperBook helped reflect that, as the Dolphins opened -3 and dipped to -2.5 Sunday night. The total dropped 1.5 points by Monday afternoon, to 41.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philly has a cluster of injuries in the defensive backfield. Safety Rodney McLeod (torn ACL) is done for the year, and cornerbacks Darius Slay (concussion protocol) and Avonte Maddox (knee) are uncertain for Sunday's game at Arizona. The Eagles opened +5.5 at The SuperBook and were already up to +6.5 Monday.

Week 15 Weather

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: There's a 30 percent chance of snow early in the day, ahead of this Saturday night contest. The main issue noted in the early forecast will simply be that it's chilly during the game, with temperatures in the upper 20s and light winds of 5-10 mph.
Week 15 Consensus

**Udog** · 12-15-2020, 09:07 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Thursday’s game
LA Chargers (4-9) @ Las Vegas (7-6)
— Chargers snapped a 5-game skid with their last-second win last week.
— Bolts are 1-5 SU on road, beating Bengals 16-13 in Week 1.
— Last four games, Charger were outscored 79-23 in first half.
— Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
— Last three Charger games stayed under the total.
— Last week was first time in ten games Chargers gave up fewer than 27 points.

— Raiders fired their DC after last week’s 44-27 loss to Indy.
— Las Vegas lost three of last four games, giving up 35-43-28-44 points.
— Raiders are 2-4 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
— Raiders turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-6)
— Las Vegas is 3-2 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Over is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 15 TD’s on 40 drives.

— Raiders (-1) beat Chargers 31-26 in Week 9, at SoFi Field.
— Chargers outgained Las Vegas, 440-320, but scored only 16 points on four red zone drives.
— Raiders won last three series games, by 2-7-5 points.

Saturday’s games
Panthers (4-9) @ Green Bay (10-3)
— Carolina lost seven of its last eight games; they covered 3 of last 5.
— Panthers are 4-9 despite a +5 turnover ratio.
— Panthers covered their last five games as road underdogs.
— Carolina is 0-9 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Last three weeks, Panthers outscored opponents 53-37 in second half.
— Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

— Green Bay won five of last six games, scoring 32.8 ppg in last four.
— Packers scored 30+ points in nine of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 76-153 third down plays (49.7%)
— Packers are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 4-2 TY.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten Green Bay games.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in 8 of their last 10 games.

— Home side won last four series games.
— Teams split last eight games overall.
— Panthers lost five of last seven visits to Lambeau; they lost 24-16 there LY.

Bills (10-3) @ Denver (5-8)
— Buffalo won six of its last seven games, covered last five.
— Bills outscored last five opponents 83-39 in first half.
— Buffalo has a 2-game lead over Miami in the AFC East.
— Bills scored 24+ points in nine of their ten wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Over is 9-4 in their games this season.

— Denver lost six of last eight games, covered three of last four.
— Denver is 2-4 SU at home, giving up 34.7 ppg in last three home tilts.
— Broncos are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as home dogs, 3-3 TY.
— Denver turned ball over 18 times (-11) in their last eight games.
— Four of their six home games stayed under total.
— Denver K McManus tested positive for COVID Monday, is a ?? here.

— Buffalo won four of last five series games.
— Bills lost three of last four visits to Denver, with last visit in 2014.

Sunday’s games
Texans (4-9) @ Indianapolis (9-4)
— Texans are 2-5 SU on road this year, beating Lions/Jaguars.
— Houston are 0-8 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans had 20+ points at the half in four of last six games.
— Houston didn’t score a second half point in their last two games.
— Over is 4-2-1 in Houston’s road games this year.
— Texans are 0-3-1 ATS this season as road underdogs.

— Colts won six of their last eight games.
— Indy lost two of its last three home games.
— Colts are 7-0 when they score 28+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
— Indy is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-3 TY.
— Seven of their last nine games went over the total.
— Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 79-23 in 2nd half.

— Colts (-3) beat Houston 26-20 two weeks ago; it was 24-20 at halftime
— Indy was +2 in turnovers, won field position by 10 years.
— Colts won six of last eight series games.
— Texas won three of last four visits to Indy.

Lions (5-8) @ Tennessee (9-4)
— Lions’ QB Stafford is banged up (ribs; check status)
— Chase Daniel (2-3 as starter in 11 years) is the backup QB.
— Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
— Detroit allowed 27+ points in six of its last seven games.
— Lions are 15-15 ATS in last 30 games as road underdogs, 3-2 TY.
— Detroit scored 27.7 ppg the last three weeks.
— Five of last seven Lion games went over the total.

— Tennessee won three of last four games, is tied for first in AFC South.
— Titans lost last two home games, giving up 34-41 points.
— Titans were +10 in turnovers the first five games, are minus-2 since.
— Last two weeks, Tennessee outscored opponents 42-10 in second half.
— Over is 8-3-1 in Titans’ last 12 games.
— Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.

— Tennessee won last five series games, last two 44-41 OT/16-15.
— Lions lost 24-19/44-41OT in visits to Nashville.

NJ Jets (0-13) @ Rams (9-4)
— Winless Jets are 4-9 ATS, covering four of last seven games.
— Jets allowed 30+ points in five of last six games.
— Jets have been outscored 97-44 in 2nd half of their last eight games.
— Jets are winless, but their turnover ratio is only minus-1.
— Jets are 9-21-2 ATS in last 32 games as road dogs, 1-5 TY.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

— Rams won four of their last five games.
— LA clinches a playoff spot with win or a tie here.
— LA has outscored opponents 164-82 in second half of games.
— Rams won five of six home games SU (4-2 ATS)
— Eight of LA’s last ten games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
— Rams had 15 takeaways in last seven games; had only six in first six games.

— Rams won eight of last ten series games.
— LA won last meeting 9-6, four years ago.
— Jets lost five of seven visits to LA/St Louis/Anaheim

Buccaneers (8-5) @ Atlanta (4-9)
— Buccaneers lost three of their last five games.
— Tampa Bay is 8-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Last four games, Bucs converted 25-50 third down plays.
— Bucs won last three road games, scoring 38.7 ppg.
— Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as road favorites.
— Last six games, Bucs were outscored 105-58 in first half.

— Falcons lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta is 2-5 SU at home, beating Raiders/Denver.
— Atlanta led six of its last eight games at halftime.
— Last four games, Falcons allowed only 17.8 ppg.
— Atlanta is 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
— Eight of their last ten games stayed under the total.

— Atlanta won six of last seven series games.
— Average total in last eight series games: 58
— Teams split last six meetings played here.
— Falcons’ interim coach Morris was Bucs’ HC from 2009-11.
— These teams meet again in Week 17.

Patriots (6-7) @ Miami (8-5)
— New England won four of its last six games.
— Underdogs covered eight of last nine Patriot games.
— New England trailed at halftime in eight of its last ten games.
— Last six games, NE outscored opponents 70-37 in second half.
— Patriots are 6-4 ATS in last ten games as home favorites, 2-2 TY.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.

— Dolphins won seven of their last nine games.
— Dolphins covered eight of their last nine games.
— Miami is 2-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
— Miami is 8-1-2 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins have 15 takeaways in last six games (+9)
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— This is first time since 2013 (14 games) that Miami is favored over NE.
— Patriots (-6.5) beat Miami 21-11 in Foxboro in Week 1; NE ran ball for 217 yards.
— New England lost four of last six visits to South Beach.

Seahawks (9-4) @ Washington (6-7)
— Seattle won three of its last four games overall.
— Seahawks lost three of last four road games.
— Last four games, Seahawks outscored foes 58-18 in first half.
— Seattle is 8-3-4 ATS in last 15 games as home faves, 3-2 TY.
— Last five Seattle games stayed under the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (3-9) their last six games.

— QB Smith (calf) is a ?? here; big drop-off between Smith and backup Haskins.
— Washington won/covered its last four games.
— Washington outscored last six opponents 108-30 in second half.
— Washington split its six home games SU this year.
— Washington is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Washington games.

— Teams split last eight series games (Seattle 3-0 in playoff games)
— Seattle won 24-14/27-17 in last two visits here (last one in 2014)

Bears (6-7) @ Minnesota (6-7)
— Bears snapped their six-game losing skid last week.
— Last three games, Chicago scored 30.3 ppg.
— Bears lost last three road games, by 14-7-16 points.
— Bears are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road dog, 3-3 TY.
— Chicago has only six takeaways in its last seven games (-5).
— Under is 7-3 in Bears’ last ten games.

— Vikings won five of seven games; they’re game out of playoffs.
— Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
— Vikings won field position in only one game so far this year.
— Minnesota is 3-4 SU at home, winning by 14-1-3 points.
— Minnesota is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite TY.
— Six of seven Viking home games went over the total.

— Vikings (-2.5) beat Chicago 19-13 in Chicago in Week 10, outgaining Bears 385-149.
— Minnesota was 8-15 on 3rd down, Chicago 2-11.
— Bears won four of last five series games, winning 24-10/21-19 in last two visits here.

Jaguars (1-12) @ Baltimore (8-5)
— Jaguars lost their last 12 games, but covered four of last six.
— Four of their last six losses were by 4 or fewer points.
— Last three weeks, Jacksonville gave up 200.3 rushing yards/game.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog, 3-3 TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Minshew is back as starting QB; he threw for 178 yards in relief LW.

— Yet another short week for the Ravens, who played Monday.
— Baltimore won last two games, scoring 34-47 points.
— Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
— Ravens are 11-18 ATS in last 29 games as home favorites, 3-3 TY.
— Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s last four games.
— Emotional game Monday night; Ravens are tied with Miami for #7-seed.

— Jaguars won four of last seven series games, but lost six of last seven visits here.
— Teams last met here in 2015.

Eagles (4-8-1) Arizona (7-6)
— Rookie QB Hurts gets his 2nd NFL start here.
— Eagles lost four of last five games; they’re 1-5 SU on road.
— Philly is 2-6-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-8-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Eagles are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as road dogs, 1-2 TY.
— Eight of last 11 Philly games stayed under the total.

— Arizona lost four of their last six games SU.
— Cardinals covered once in their last six games.
— Arizona has a one-game lead for the #7-seed (last playoff spot)
— Redbirds are 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as home favorites, 1-3 TY.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Cardinal games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 13 games.

— Arizona won five of last seven series games.
— Eagles lost last four visits here; their last win in Arizona was in 2002.

Chiefs (12-1) @ New Orleans (10-3)
— Chiefs won their last eight games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (3-4 ATS)
— Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite, 2-4 TY.
— Last five games, Kansas City allowed 25.8 ppg
— Chiefs averaged at least 7.6 ypa in each of its last six games.
— Kansas City have one-game lead for #1-seed in AFC.

— New Orleans had its 8-game win streak snapped last week.
— Saints covered five of their last six games.
— Saints allowed four TD’s on opponents’ last 44 drives.
— Hill is expected to be at QB again; Brees is closer to playing, though.
— Saints are 15-22 ATS in last 37 games as a road favorite, 2-4 TY.
— Five of last six New Orleans games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs won four of last six series games, winning 27-24/27-21 in last two
— Kansas City won four of six visits to New Orleans, not counting Super Bowl IV.

49ers (5-8) @ Dallas (4-9)
— 49ers lost five of their last six games SU.
— SF is 5-15 SU in last 20 games Garoppolo didn’t play.
— 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 33.1 ppg in their losses.
— Last six games, SF was outscored 84-41 in first half.
— 49ers are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite away from home.
— Three of their last four games went under the total.

— Dallas is 0-3 ATS this year in game following a win.
— Cowboys lost six of their last eight games overall.
— Dallas was leading at halftime in four of last six games.
— Cowboys are 3-10 ATS this year; last week was their first win by more than 3 points.
— Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.
— Dallas is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as home underdogs, 1-1 TY.

— Dallas won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings here, last of which was in 2014.

Browns (10-3) @ NJ Giants (5-8)
— Cleveland won four of last five games, scoring 33 ppg in last four.
— Monday was first game Browns lost when they scored more than 7 points.
— Last two games, Cleveland allowed 28-26 points in second half.
— Cleveland won four of six road games SU.
— Browns are 1-6 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— Over is 8-4 in their last dozen games.
— Short week after an emotional loss for Browns Monday

— Giants won four of their last five games, covered eight of last ten.
— Giants are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS outside their division.
— Seven of Giants’ last nine games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Big Blue is 0-5 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
— Giants are 3-13 ATS in last 16 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

— Giants won four of five series games.
— Browns lost 27-10/41-27 in two series games played here.

Monday’s game
Steelers (11-2) @ Cincinnati (2-10-1)
— Steelers lost their last two games, after an 11-0 start.
— Last three games, Steelers scored only 17 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 3-6-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +11 in turnovers this season, +6 in last six games.
— Last five weeks, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 72-29 in first half of games

— Bengals lost last five games by a combined 124-50.
— Cincinnati has only five TD’s on its last 53 drives.
— Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS this season as a home underdog.
— Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last eight games.
— Cincy allowed 16+ points in 2nd half, in each of its last eight games.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Pitt (-6.5) beat Bengals 36-10 in Week 10, throwing for 333 yards.
— Bengals were 0-13 on third down in first meeting.
— Steelers won last 11 series games, last seven visits to Cincinnati.

**Udog** · 12-16-2020, 10:50 AM

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Dec. 17

L.A. CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS
Bolts no wins or covers six of last seven this season, though broke losing streak last week vs. Falcs.
Raiders have won and covered last three meetings, though went to last play on Nov. 8 at So Fi, and have dropped last three vs. line in 2020.
Vegas 9-3-1 “over” this season.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals" trends.

Saturday, Dec. 19

BUFFALO at DENVER
Into last Sunday night vs. Steelers, Bills were on four straight covers after win vs. 49ers, also now 8-3-1 “over” this season.
Denver 13-7 last 20 as dog, also “under” 4-1 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY
Panthers have been tough on road, covered last four away, all as dog.
Rhule 7-1 last 8 as dog in 2020.

Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.

Sunday, Dec. 20

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS

Indy has covered only 1 of last 4 at Lucas Oil.
Colts, however, have won and covered last five meetings.

Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on series trends.

DETROIT at TENNESSEE
Titans now “over” 9-3 last 12 in 2020 and “over” 20-6 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid 2019.
Lions “over” 8-4-1 this season.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA
Series has gone “over” last four and 7 of last 8 meetings.
Bucs “over” 18-10-1 for Arians since LY.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Dolphins have won 7 and covered 8 of last 8 this season, and looking back to early 2019 are now 19-6 vs. line last 25 for Flores.
Miami also “under” 8-5 in 2020, Belichick “under” 9-4 after Rams game.
Patriots 2-5 vs. spread away TY.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS
Cowboys got rare win last week at Cincy but still miserable 3-10 vs. line TY.
Niners 4-2 vs. spread on road in 2020, now 10-4 vs. spread as visitor since LY.

Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON
WFT has won and covered last four in 2020, also “under” 6-2-1 last nine in 2020.
Hawks no covers 4 of last 6 or 6 of last 9 in 2020.
Seattle also “under” 5-0 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Football Team and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA
Bears broke 6-game SU skid last week vs. Texans, but still just 1-4 vs. line last five TY.
“Unders” 5-2 last seven meetings including Nov. 16 at Soldier Field on a Monday.
Chicago on 25-11 “under” run since late 2018.
Vikes, however, “over” 8-4-1 this season, though just 2-5 vs. spread at US Bank.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE
Jags no outright wins since opening week but have covered 4 of last 6 TY.
Jags also 6-3 “under” last nine.
Ravens 3-3 vs. line at home TY, and 1-1-1 laying DD.

Tech Edge: Slight to “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at L.A. RAMS
Jets still winless SU but have covered 4 of last 7 TY.
Rams 0-1 as DD chalk TY, though McVay had covered previous six in role since 2017.
Rams “under” 9-4 in 2020 after Patriots game.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA
Both broke recent skids last week, as Cards had failed to cover previous five.
Eagles just 4-9 vs. line previous 13, before each got wins and covers last week.
Philly “under” 6-1 last seven TY, Cards “under” 8-4-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Super Bowl preview? Chiefs still winning outright lately but no covers last five in 2020.
Saints “under” 5-1 last six in 2020.
NO 5-1 SU and vs. line last six this season.

Tech Edge: Saints and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men have won four of last five outright and 7-2-1 last ten vs. spread in 2020.
NY “under” 9-3-1 this season.
Into Ravens on Monday, Brownies had only covered 1 of 6 prior to win at Titans last week.

Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

Monday, Dec. 21

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
Steel 10-0 SU, 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten reg season meetings vs. Cincy.
“Unders” last five and 7-1-1 last eight meetings.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on series trends.

**Udog** · 12-19-2020, 08:38 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Green Bay

-- The Packers are 10-0 ATS (6.80 ppg) since Dec 09, 2018 as a favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Detroit at Tennessee

-- The Titans are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.42 ppg) since Oct 17, 2004 as a favorite coming off a road win where they gained at least 22 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Seattle at Washington

-- The Seahawks are 9-0-1 OU (11.75 ppg) since Dec 30, 2018 coming off a game where Russell Wilson threw at least three touchdown passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Atlanta

-- The Buccaneers are 11-0 OU (14.82 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 as a favorite coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points fewer than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New England at Miami

-- The Patriots are 0-13 OU (-9.27 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 coming off a road game that went under the total by at least six points

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Buffalo at Denver

-- The Broncos are 0-11 OU (-10.18 ppg) since Dec 10, 2017 as a dog coming off a road game where they allowed at least 24 points.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

**Udog** · 12-19-2020, 08:40 AM

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thur., Dec. 17 - Monday, Dec. 21)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thur., Dec. 17 - Monday, Dec. 21)

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