NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thur., Nov. 19 - Monday, Nov. 23)

[Udog]

[Udog]

Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The Sunday Night Football game this week has a lot of people excited for its prospects, as it's an AFC West rematch between the Chiefs and Raiders, with Kansas City looking to avenge there only loss of the year.

The 42-30 home loss for the Chiefs came after consecutive MNF games (virus related), and while you can never overlook a division rival, the fact that this game came after convincing wins against Baltimore (prospective KC rival in the big picture) and the Patriots (former/current KC rival based on the past few years), that spot was a rough one for the Chiefs looking back at it.

And when you install them as -11 point home favorites as they were, chances are the players got a little complacent – they were undefeated, off two big wins, expected to win easily etc.

That first meeting was tied entering the 4th quarter though, but it was three straight scores (2 TD and 1 FG) by Las Vegas in that final 15 minutes that shifted the game in their favor, and KC just ran out of time for another one of their furious comebacks we've gotten used to seeing from them the past 12+ months.

With that result already behind us, you know that “revenge” will come up a lot this week for the Chiefs and the idea of backing them, and you can't discount that. There is no need to base any play solely on the revenge narrative though, as chances are you'll be missing other key bits of information along the way in being so stuck on the revenge idea.

Betting Resources

Week 11 Matchup: AFC West
Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

S Tyrann Mathieu and the Chiefs have been perfect on the road this season, going 4-0 as visitors. (AP)

Chiefs-Raiders Betting Odds

Spread: Chiefs -7
Money-Line: Kansas City -310, Las Vegas +255
Total: 56.5

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U
Road: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.8 (Rank 2)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 27)
Offense YPG: 409.0 (Rank 2)
Defense YPG: 354.1 (Rank 14)

Las Vegas

Overall: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U
Home: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 28.3 (Rank 8)
Defense PPG: 26.8 (Rank 14)
Offense YPG: 370 (Rank 13)
Defense YPG: 377.6 (Rank 21)

Handicapping the Total

As someone who does prefer to lean on division rematch games to see their results on the side and total flipped from the first meeting, siding with the 'revenge' angle on playing Kansas City, and backing the 'under' would be the two plays that qualify in that thinking here. Thoughts on the side are coming, but in terms of this total, going 'under' would be completely contrarian, possibly too much for myself even.

All the numbers on both sides point to this being a game filled with points again, especially now that nearly the entire Raiders starting defense has gone without substantial practice time this week. KC has scored 33+ points in each of their last three contests overall, and have only finished with sub-30 point totals in three of their nine games this season.

Mahomes and company had no problem putting up points – even in a below average game for the Chiefs – against the Raiders in the first meeting, and I'm not going to let the fact that Las Vegas allowed 6 points to Cleveland in tornado-like conditions, and the 12 points allowed to Denver last week to sway the thought of KC's ability to move the ball.

The Chiefs will score here, and while you know the oddsmakers are going to be looking for an 'under' to cash, it's just not something I can comfortably pull the trigger on.

However, I'm not exactly too keen on playing an 'over' in a prime time game you know the whole betting world will be on, especially after missing the best of the number much earlier in the week when it opened in the 55.5 range.

All of those factors are things I believe are detrimental to one's bankroll long term if they get completely ignored, as the old betting idea of “when something looks too good/easy to be true, it usually is” percolating through my head.

This is still the third straight division game for the Raiders, and we just saw the Minnesota Vikings in that same role last Monday night against Chicago. That 19-13 Vikings win never came close to threatening the 'over' at all.

The SNF crew haven't seen an 'over' connect since the Week 7 game between Seattle and Arizona (nearly a month), and that's been the only 'over' to connect in this high profile SNF time slot since the start of Week 4.

A return match between the Chiefs and Raiders certainly has all the right ingredients there to snap that long wrong of 'unders' on SNF, but this is a total I'll be staying on the sidelines with ultimately. I do believe that teasing the total - both ways – could end up being the best way to play this game, as landing right around this number is highly possible.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 11, 2019 - Las Vegas 40 vs. Kansas City 32, Raiders +10.5, Over 54.5
Dec. 1, 2019 - Kansas City 40 vs. Las Vegas 9, Chiefs -11, Under 49.5
Sept. 15, 2019 - Kansas City 28 vs. Las Vegas 10, Chiefs -6.5, Under 53
Dec. 30, 2018 - Kansas City 35 vs. Las Vegas 3, Chiefs -14, Under 53.5
Dec. 2, 2018 - Kansas City 40 vs. Las Vegas 33, Raiders +13.5, Over 53.5

Handicapping the Side

The Raiders got some early week love when the original opener of KC -7 got bet down to -6.5, but then the virus news hit the Raiders mid-week and it forced a shift in the markets. The number came off the board for awhile, and has since settled on it's current range, a point higher than that full TD opener at the beginning of the week.

That lack of practice time is the big loss here regardless of what names on that Raiders defense are out there on the field, but having already played this opponent once this year does mitigate at least some of that negative aspect.

Yet, the Kansas City Chiefs are not just your typical ho-hum division rival that finishes .500 every year, they are the defending Super Bowl champs with a QB that's established himself as arguably the best in the game right now.

Not being together for walkthroughs and game plan implementation is going to make this week a severe challenge for this Raiders defense – another reason I'm avoiding the total.

From KC's perspective, I'm sure there will be some mention of a possible lookahead to a Super Bowl preview with the Chiefs visiting old pal Tom Brady down in Tampa Bay next week, but I'm not buying any of that this week.

Usually I'm a guy all for potential lookaheads, but to consider it for a non-conference game and hindering said team in a division game – against their only competition in the division like the Raiders are for KC – doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The revenge narrative is always going to be popular here, and knowing that, I've still got very little issue in siding with the Chiefs for that reason, among many. I believe they are the far better team here and simply got caught in a lackluster spot in that first meeting.

A KC win here would put them three games clear of the Raiders for the division crown, and when you boil down the six wins Las Vegas has gotten this year, they really have been the beneficiary of some great situational spots in some of them.

I've already argued that they caught KC in a bad spot off two straight MNF games, but they also beat New Orleans – another win Raiders fans will point to for legitimacy – in the home opener for Vegas. Far from a typical home opener I know, but those are always good situations for the home side.

The other four wins Vegas has this year have come against Carolina, Denver, the Chargers (where they nearly coughed it up to LAC), and Cleveland in that tornado-like game. That list is far from a who's who in terms of crafting a strong legitimacy case for the Raiders this year.

You can only beat who's in front of you though, and you can't take everything away from those wins over New Orleans and KC, but with how the week has gone for Las Vegas, I've got a feeling they are walking into a disaster on SNF.

I know that I outlined this scenario earlier in the week that suggests going against KC here, but with the way the Raiders week has gone since then, KC looks like the better play with each passing day.

KC is still on a 14-3-1 ATS run dating back almost exactly a full calendar year (Nov 18th game vs LAC in Week 11 last year), and they've not lost two straight against the spread in that span. They keep that run going this week.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

WR Sammy Watkins: Questionable
CB Antonio Hamilton: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Mike Remmers: Ribs - Questionable
CB Rashad Fenton: Ankle - Questionable
DE Taco Charlton: Leg - Out

Las Vegas

OT Kolton Miller: Questionable
DT Maurice Hurst : Questionable
RB Jalen Richard: Chest - Questionable

2020 Sunday Night Football (SNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS
Over-Under: 3-7

[Udog]

Rams vs. Buccaneers Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's a quarterback rematch from Super Bowl LIII two years ago, as Jared Goff and the Rams hope for a different result against Tom Brady's new squad, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The 13-3 score in that Super Bowl was due in large part to the two pass rushes involved making life very difficult for Goff and Brady, and two years on with one new team involved, it appears as though that hasn't changed.

The Rams still have All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald and company causing chaos on each snap, and the numbers Tampa's defense has put up this year because of their front four pressure has been just as noteworthy.

Tampa Bay and the Rams are both fighting to stay where they currently are in the NFC playoff race though – currently 5th and 6th respectively – and who knows what kind of tie-breaking potential this head-to-head matchup could have for either side down the road.

Goff was 0-2 straight up against Brady when he was in New England (lost 26-10 in 2016), and both have been low-scoring games where the Rams offense didn't put up more than 10 points.

Rams fans are hoping that changes in a big way now that it's Tampa Bay's defense they are up against and not Pats head coach Bill Belichick and company, but with playoff implications and some great pass rushing skills on both sides, this very well could be another lower scoring game.

Is that how we should be betting it though?

Betting Resources

Week 11 Matchup: NFC
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
Date: Monday, Nov. 23, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Tampa Bay RB Ronald Jones is coming off a big week and he hopes to carry that momentum into MNF. (AP)

Rams-Buccaneers Betting Odds

Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -220, L.A. Rams +190
Total: 48

2020 Betting Stats

L.A. Rams

Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 2-7 O/U
Road: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 24 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 18.7 (Rank 31)
Offense YPG: 395.6 (Rank 7)
Defense YPG: 296.4 (Rank 2)

Tampa Bay

Overall: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U
Home: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 6)
Defense PPG: 22.6 (Rank 25)
Offense YPG: 368.5 (Rank 14)
Defense YPG: 300.3 (Rank 3)

Handicapping the Total

The Rams come into this game on a 0-6 O/U run overall, as they've grown comfortable finding more success in these low-scoring games.

LA is 4-2 SU in those contests and just aim to do what they do and do it well. It's far fewer formations with more plays run from each setup.

Defensively it creates chaos up front and lets the secondary lock down things at the back, and for the most part it's worked out well for LA of late. They held four of those six opponents to 16 points or less, three of which finished with 10 or less.

Tough not to start to lean to the 'under' with that run.

But at the same time, the three opponents they held to 10 or less were the Bears, Washington, and the Giants. All bottom-feeding offenses at the time (or still very much so).

Holding Seattle to 16 last week was mightily impressive, but Miami scored 28 on them, and San Francisco put 21 on them in a 24-16 win by the 49ers while they were still healthy.

Even going back further, their other three games this season were a 20-17 win over Dallas in the opener, a 37-19 win in Philadelphia, and a 35-32 loss in Buffalo in a game the Rams know they coughed up.

Outside of Seattle (a division rival), any opponent that's had a semi-alright offense has actually done fairly well against LA.

Brady and the Bucs would trail only Seattle in terms of being the best offenses the Rams have faced this season, and asking LA to put together two successive weeks of full lock down mode against offenses like that is a little bit much to ask these days no?

Tampa bounced back in a big way last week with a 46-23 win in Carolina after they were embarrassed on Sunday Night Football the week prior by New Orleans.

Expecting teams to be a scoring machine off a 40+ point effort is also a bit much to ask, especially when pressure up the middle – the thing the Rams are very good at – is what Brady hates and forces him to slide into multiple sacks each time.

But if expecting the Rams defense to show their past form against passable offenses, Brady and company should be able to manufacture their fair share of scoring drives here.

They put up 40 in beating the Raiders this year and the following week was that Monday Night Football game against the Giants that snuck 'over' the total late, so there is precedent for Tampa's offense staying functional enough to cash an 'over' ticket off a 40-point effort.

Tampa is also 3-1 O/U the last four times they've had a total anywhere in the 40's, and the lone 'under' was thanks to the Chicago Bears sharing the football field with one of these teams again.

I do lean towards Belichick and the scheme being the thing that frustrated Goff in those two previous meetings vs Brady, and Tampa's allowed at least 20 against in four straight weeks.

Their defense had their one standout game – like the Rams vs Seattle – when Tampa held Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to 10 points in that win, but the following game was a road game in Vegas where 65 points were scored.

Awfully similar situation to what the Rams are in this week – on the road off their best defensive performance.

So give me the high side of this total as I'm still not sure either defense is all it's cracked up to be. The Rams may be on a 0-6 O/U run overall, but they were also the favorite in all of those games.

The last five times they've been an underdog they've gone 5-0 O/U, with that 35-32 loss in Buffalo being the last occurrence. In two games as an underdog this year, Rams games have averaged 61.5 points/game and we don't need anywhere near that for an 'over' ticket.

Tampa's defense gives up things to everyone, and L.A. may already know they'll have to play a bit faster when it is Brady and company on the other side.

Can only take the high side of this total.

Head-to-Head History

Sept. 29, 2019 - Tampa Bay 55 at Los Angeles 40, Buccaneers +9, Over 48.5
Sep. 25, 2016 - Los Angeles 37 vs. Tampa Bay 32, Rams +3.5, Over 40.5

Handicapping the Side

The spread is an interesting proposition as it's moved back and forth in the -3.5 to -4.5 range for Tampa as it's a matchup and spread that should see plenty of support for both sides.

When it becomes all about execution like it so often is with these two, it's who's going to make the bigger mistake(s). There are cases to be made for both sides in that debate and it makes this spread one that's far easier to pass on.

I do believe we see the better versions of both teams here as both have to consider it as a bit of a measuring stick game to begin with.

The Rams performed well in their last test – vs Seattle – while the Bucs did not – vs New Orleans – so maybe you give a slight lean to the home side, but that always leaves in-play as probably the more viable option now to try and get a better number than where it currently sits.

Could even go the ML route with Tampa should the Rams score first, or even find various spots during the game where you could possibly have both sides at plus-money ML prices.

Definitely no need to be in a hurry to bet this spread pre-game though.

Key Injuries

Rams

K Kai Forbath: Ankle - Out
S Taylor Rapp: Knee - Out
OT Andrew Whitworth: Knee - Out
C Brian Allen: Knee - Questionable

Tampa Bay

G Ali Marpet: Concussion - Questionable
RB T.J. Logan: Knee - Out

2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Over-Under: 4-6

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Indianapolis 34, Packers 31 OT
— Green Bay in first half: 31 plays, 251 yards, 28 points.
— Packers in 2nd half/OT: 27 plays, 146 yards, 3 points.
— Packers were outscored in second half in each of their last seven games.
— Green Bay converted 57-119 third down plays (47.9%)
— In his career, Aaron Rodgers is 2-8-1 SU in overtime games.

— Last two games, Colts outscored foes 41-3 in 2nd half/OT.
— Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won four of its five home games.
— Colts were called for nine holding penalties in this game.
— Indy is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

Cowboys 31, Minnesota 28
— Cowboys won field position by 14 yards; only one of their 4 TD drives was longer than 61 yards.
— Dallas ran ball for 180 yards; Elliott had 103 of those.
— Dallas is 3-8 ATS this year; their three wins are by a total of 7 points.
— Cowboys get their first road win in five tries.

— Vikings were down 16-7 at half, took 28-24 lead with 9:37 left to play.
— Dallas drove 61 yards to score game-winning TD with 1:37 left.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all six of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota ran ball for only 125 yards, threw for 314; they had been running ball much better of late.

Tennessee 30, Ravens 24 OT
— Henry ran ball for 133 yards, including a 29-yard walk-off TD in OT
— Tennessee outgained the Ravens 423-306.
— Titans won four of their last five visits to Baltimore.
— Tennessee’s last four drives: 36 plays, 297 yards, two TD’s, two FG’s.

— Ravens led 14-10 at half, kicked 29-yard FG with 0:15 left to force OT.
— Baltimore lost three of last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23-30 in losses.
— Ravens are 7-14 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.

Cleveland 22, Eagles 17
— Philly fumbled ball away on Browns’ 5-yard line on their first drive.
— Eagles converted only 2-12 third down plays.
— Philly is 1-5-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-6-1 if they allow more than 21.

— Chubb ran for 114 yards on a rainy day by Lake Erie.
— Browns led 7-0 at the half; only score was a defensive TD.
— Cleveland won five of their six home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

New Orleans 24, Falcons 9
— Falcons lost five of last six series games.
— Atlanta was outgained 378-248; Falcons ran ball for only 52 yards.
— Five of Falcons’ last seven games stayed under the total.
— Atlanta kicked FG’s on 3 of first 5 drives, didn’t score again.

— Saints ran for 168 yards, averaged 8.1 yards/pass attempt.
— QB Hill threw for 233 yards, ran for 51 more in his first NFL start.
— New Orleans won its last seven games, last three by 35-14-15 points.
— Last three games, Saints allowed 25 points (1 TD on 32 drives).

Carolina 20, Lions 0
— Detroit lost its last three games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Lions were outgained 374-185, ran ball 17 times for only 40 times.
— Detroit was outrushed 601-303 in its last four games.
— Lions got inside the Carolina 40 on only one drive.

— Backup QB Walker was 24-34/258; he threw two INT’s in red zone.
— Carolina broke a 5-game losing skid with this win.
— Panthers held Detroit to only 3.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

Houston 27, Patriots 20
— New England loses in Houston for 2nd year in a row.
— Patriots lost four of their five road games, with win 30-27 over Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in six of its last seven games.
— Newton threw for 365 yards; Patriots only got to red zone twice (10 points)

— Texans scored three TD’s on five first half drives, gaining 239 yards.
— Houston is 3-1 when they score 27+ points, 0-6 when they do not.
— Teams combined for 693 passing yards, 141 rushing yards.
— Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.

Steelers 27, Jacksonville 3
— Steelers won first ten games (8-2 ATS), scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Pittsburgh outgained Jaguars 383-206, picked off four passes.
— Pittsburgh is +12 in turnovers this season.
— In their last six games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards five times.

— Jacksonville drove 52 yards for FG on its first drive, never scored again.
— Jaguars lost their last nine games (3-6 ATS).
— Luton averaged threw four picks, averaged 3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Jacksonville gave up 30.8 ppg in their last nine games.

Washington 20, Bengals 9
— Bengals were up 9-7 when rookie QB Burrow tore his ACL.
— Backup QB Finley was 3-10/30 yards passing.
— Bengals are 0-5-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26-11 points.
— Cincy led at halftime in five of their last six games.

— NFC East standings:
3-6-1 Eagles
3-7 Dallas, New York, Washington
— Washington is 2-3 in last five games; losses were by 1-3-3 points.
— Under is 4-0-1 in last four Washington games.
— Alex Smith 17-25/166 passing; he gets his first win in two years, after shattering his leg and having 17 operations on it.

Denver 20, Miami 13
— Dolphins had their 5-game winning streak snapped.
— Miami replaced ineffective QB Tagovailoa with veteran Fitzpatrick in 4th quarter.
— Miami went 3/out on five of their first seven drives.
— Dolphins’ only TD was on a 22-yard drive after an INT.
— Dolphins were a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.

— Broncos outgained Miami 459-223; final score is misleading.
— Denver outrushed Miami 189-56; Gordon ran for 84 yards, two TD’s.
— Denver came up empty on two red zone drives in second half.
— Broncos are 10-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 3-2 TY.

LA Chargers 34, Jets 28
— Jets were down 31-13 with 1:00 left in 3rd quarter, had ball with chance to tie in last 1:00.
— Winless Jets are 3-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26-8 points.
— Jets are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog this year.
— Jets covered three of last four games overall.

— 2nd week in row, Chargers had a punt blocked on their first drive.
— Chargers’ first TD was scored by their defense.
— This was only 2nd win for Bolts in their last nine games.
— Last seven Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.

Chiefs 35, Las Vegas 31
— Chiefs drove 75 yards in seven plays for the winning TD with 0:29 left.
— Kansas City had ball eight times in this game, scored five TD’s.
— Chiefs ran 73 plays, only nine of them on third down.
— Chiefs won their last five games, last two 33-31/35-31.
— Divisional home underdogs are 14-4 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Las Vegas covered five of their last six games overall.
— Las Vegas lost three of their five home games SU.
— Raiders converted 25 of their last 46 third down plays.
— Eight of ten Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders 2-11 SU in last 13 games against Kansas City.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cowboys (+7, ML +260) at Vikings, 31-28
Titans (+6, ML +220) at Ravens, 30-24 (OT)
Broncos (+4, ML +180) at Broncos, 20-13
Panthers (+3, ML +144) vs. Lions, 20-0
Texans (+2.5, ML +122) vs. Patriots, 27-20

The largest favorites to cover

Steelers (-10.5) at Jaguars, 27-3
Saints (-3.5) vs. Falcons, 24-9
Browns (-2.5) vs. Eagles, 22-17
Colts (-1.5) vs. Packers, 34-31 (OT)
Washington (-1.5) vs. Bengals, 20-9

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders matchup was a little disappointing if you were holding a Raiders money line (+290) ticket.

The Raiders hit the winner in Week 5 as 10.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 40-32, and they felt it was worthy of a victory lap after the big win over their rivals. The Chiefs remembered, and didn't want to see it happen again on Sunday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

It was a seesaw affair at the 'Big Al', as the teams exchanged haymakers in the first quarter with a 2-yard touchdown run by RB Josh Jacobs, before a 3-yard touchdown from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to WR Tyreek Hill. On the final play of the first, QB Derek Carr hit WR Nelson Agholor on a highlight reel 17-yard touchdown to make it 14-7.

Early in the second, Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire punched one in from three yards out, and PK Daniel Carlson ended the first-half scoring, much to the delight of Raiders first-half backers (+4) and first-half money line bettors (+150), with Vegas up 17-14.

The third quarter saw just Edwards-Helaire with a 14-yard touchdown, his second scoring run of the evening, and the Chiefs were back up 21-17. 'Under' (56.5) bettors were a little nervous, needing 19 points in the final 15 minutes. That nervousness was not necessary.

Raiders TE Darren Waller opened the scoring with a 3-yard TD snare from Carr, making it 24-21 in favor of the home side. With just 5:54 to go, RB Le'Veon Bell cracked off a 6-yard touchdown to make it 28-24. TE Jason Witten put the Raiders back on top with 1:43 to go, as the Raiders officially clinched the game cover (+7.5), as well as giving 'over' bettors a winning ticket, up 31-28.

But the final score came with 1:43 to go. That's 103 seconds for the defending Super Bowl MVP. It was 28 seconds too many. Mahomes tricked a member of the secondary who bit on the quarterback scramble, and Mahomes threw a 22-yard dart to TE Travis Kelce, who was wide open in the end zone. Game. Set. Match. No money line winner for the Silver and Black.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New England Patriots-Houston Texans (49.5) wasn't really a bad beat, but it was a disappointment if you were an 'over' bettor. If you were an 'under' bettor, you were not crying.

The teams combined for 31 points by halftime, with Houston up 21-10 at the break. After 10 points in the third quarter, over bettors were feeling pretty good heading into the final 15, with 41 points on the board. However, the teams exchanged only field goals in the fourth, and Houston held out for the 27-20.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow going down early in the third quarter with a season-ending injury in their 20-9 setback on the road against the Washington Football Team is disappointing. The Bengals were winning 9-7 at the time, winning outright as 1.5-point 'dogs.

Washington marched straight down the field on the ensuing drive and took a 14-9 lead, and it's a lead they wouldn't relinquish. In fact, the Bengals wouldn't score again as they slipped to 2-7-1 with six to go.

In addition, if you are holding an 'over' five wins ticket for the season for Cincinnati, you might as well shred that one now. QB Ryan Finley was horrible in Burrow's stead, and the Bengals are back to being the Bungles.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns (45.5) tilt at FirstEnergy Stadium. While we didn't see the frozen precipitation or bone-chilling temperatures like we did the last two games in Cleveland, a 16-6 loss to the Raiders, and a 10-7 win over the Houston Texans, there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Sunday's game, and Mother Nature didn't disappoint.

It was a soggy, ugly, rainy game, and under bettors were treated to double aughts in the first quarter. A defensive touchdown on a pick-six by Sione Takitaki was the only score. At halftime, the Browns carried a 7-0 lead into the room to dry out and warm up. Defense reigned supreme in the third quarter, too, as we had a safety.

There were some uncomfortable moments for under bettors in the fourth, as the teams exchanged 10s to get the total to 39. But thankfully we had a QB Carson Wentz red-zone pick, and the Eagles weren't able to grab the onside kick after TE Dallas Goedert scored with 30 seconds left.

The highest total on the board Sunday was the SNF game between the Chiefs and Raiders, and we broke that down above. After Thursday's primetime game between the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (57) hit the 'under' at 28-21, the over/under is 1-1 with the Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48) Monday night battle pending.

So far this season the under is 22-12 (64.7%) across 34 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The bad news. On Thanksgiving, we get two 3-7 battling for a win in the middle game. The good news is that it should be an even game with plenty of storylines. And, believe it or not, these two teams are each just a half-game out of first place when normally your season would essentially be over four games under .500 after 10 games.

We also get the QB Andy Dalton revenge game. Dalton was knocked out of the first meeting in Week 7 by a cheap shot, sending him into the concussion protocol. Enter QB Ben DiNucci, and he didn't have it, as the Football Team won 25-3 in that late October battle in D.C. DiNucci started one game, then QB Garrett Gilbert started another, but the Cowboys were winless in the two games without Dalton. He returned and led the Cowboys to an upset win at Minnesota to make a big difference.

Dallas has won each of the past four home games against Washington, scoring 31 or more points in each of those games. But, of course, that was with QB Dak Prescott at the helm, too.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Ravens head to the Steel City on Turkey Day (well, night), looking to avenge a 28-24 loss at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8. It was Pittsburgh's seventh win of the season against no losses, and After their 27-3 win at Jacksonville in Week 11, they're still filing a goose egg in the loss column. That's 10 up and 10 down for the Steelers, and they have covered eight times in those 10 games, including 7-1 ATS across the past eight.

The Ravens have won the past two trips to Heinz Field, including a thrilling 26-23 overtime win last season, and a 26-14 win in 2018. Baltimore has won four of the past six in Pittsburgh straight-up, and six of the past 10 outright at the confluence.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 loss at Denver, snapping a five-game winning streak, and it's a game which saw rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa benched for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, as head coach Brian Flores looked for a spark. It didn't happen, as the Broncos won as four-point 'dogs. The Jets put up a pretty impressive effort in L.A., covering a 9.5-point number against the Chargers, but they remain winless at 0-10. It was their third cover of the season, however, and the 'over' result was their fifth in 10 outings. Flores did promise Tua will be back as starter in Week 12.

These teams met in Miami back in Week 6, and the Jets scored as many points as you and I, losing 24-0 as 10-point 'dogs as the 'under' (46) connected. Miami has won five of their past eight trips to New Jersey outright, and they have won seven of the previous nine overall in this series.

The Dolphins opened as touchdown favorites on the road against Gang Green.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears are coming off a bye. The Packers are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are going to be ornery.

This is the first of two meetings in the final six games for these rivals, with the Packers up two games over the Bears in the NFC North Division at 7-3 (vs. 5-5). The Packers have dominated this series in the regular season and postseason, winning 16 of the past 19 meetings in this series overall, including nine of the past 10 trips to Chitown, including that NFC Championship Game win in the 2010 playoffs. Last season's win in Chicago was just 10-3 for Green Bay, and the Bears clinched the NFC North in the 2018 meeting at Soldier Field while eliminating the Packers from the playoffs, so even if the teams appear to be on different planes, expect a rough and tumble affair that will be close.

The biggest question is the health of QB Nick Foles, who was knocked out in the final minute of last Monday's game against Minnesota. The good news is that he didn't sustain a fractured hip, but it's uncertain if he'll be ready, if QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) will be ready, or if we might see QB Tyler Bray. The quarterback situation obviously will make a huge difference on who to back, and what to play on the total. Stay tuned.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cowboys (+7, ML +260) at Vikings, 31-28
Titans (+6, ML +220) at Ravens, 30-24 (OT)
Broncos (+4, ML +180) at Broncos, 20-13
Panthers (+3, ML +144) vs. Lions, 20-0
Texans (+2.5, ML +122) vs. Patriots, 27-20

The largest favorites to cover

Steelers (-10.5) at Jaguars, 27-3
Saints (-3.5) vs. Falcons, 24-9
Browns (-2.5) vs. Eagles, 22-17
Colts (-1.5) vs. Packers, 34-31 (OT)
Washington (-1.5) vs. Bengals, 20-9

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders matchup was a little disappointing if you were holding a Raiders money line (+290) ticket.

The Raiders hit the winner in Week 5 as 10.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 40-32, and they felt it was worthy of a victory lap after the big win over their rivals. The Chiefs remembered, and didn't want to see it happen again on Sunday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

It was a seesaw affair at the 'Big Al', as the teams exchanged haymakers in the first quarter with a 2-yard touchdown run by RB Josh Jacobs, before a 3-yard touchdown from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to WR Tyreek Hill. On the final play of the first, QB Derek Carr hit WR Nelson Agholor on a highlight reel 17-yard touchdown to make it 14-7.

Early in the second, Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire punched one in from three yards out, and PK Daniel Carlson ended the first-half scoring, much to the delight of Raiders first-half backers (+4) and first-half money line bettors (+150), with Vegas up 17-14.

The third quarter saw just Edwards-Helaire with a 14-yard touchdown, his second scoring run of the evening, and the Chiefs were back up 21-17. 'Under' (56.5) bettors were a little nervous, needing 19 points in the final 15 minutes. That nervousness was not necessary.

Raiders TE Darren Waller opened the scoring with a 3-yard TD snare from Carr, making it 24-21 in favor of the home side. With just 5:54 to go, RB Le'Veon Bell cracked off a 6-yard touchdown to make it 28-24. TE Jason Witten put the Raiders back on top with 1:43 to go, as the Raiders officially clinched the game cover (+7.5), as well as giving 'over' bettors a winning ticket, up 31-28.

But the final score came with 1:43 to go. That's 103 seconds for the defending Super Bowl MVP. It was 28 seconds too many. Mahomes tricked a member of the secondary who bit on the quarterback scramble, and Mahomes threw a 22-yard dart to TE Travis Kelce, who was wide open in the end zone. Game. Set. Match. No money line winner for the Silver and Black.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New England Patriots-Houston Texans (49.5) wasn't really a bad beat, but it was a disappointment if you were an 'over' bettor. If you were an 'under' bettor, you were not crying.

The teams combined for 31 points by halftime, with Houston up 21-10 at the break. After 10 points in the third quarter, over bettors were feeling pretty good heading into the final 15, with 41 points on the board. However, the teams exchanged only field goals in the fourth, and Houston held out for the 27-20.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow going down early in the third quarter with a season-ending injury in their 20-9 setback on the road against the Washington Football Team is disappointing. The Bengals were winning 9-7 at the time, winning outright as 1.5-point 'dogs.

Washington marched straight down the field on the ensuing drive and took a 14-9 lead, and it's a lead they wouldn't relinquish. In fact, the Bengals wouldn't score again as they slipped to 2-7-1 with six to go.

In addition, if you are holding an 'over' five wins ticket for the season for Cincinnati, you might as well shred that one now. QB Ryan Finley was horrible in Burrow's stead, and the Bengals are back to being the Bungles.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns (45.5) tilt at FirstEnergy Stadium. While we didn't see the frozen precipitation or bone-chilling temperatures like we did the last two games in Cleveland, a 16-6 loss to the Raiders, and a 10-7 win over the Houston Texans, there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Sunday's game, and Mother Nature didn't disappoint.

It was a soggy, ugly, rainy game, and under bettors were treated to double aughts in the first quarter. A defensive touchdown on a pick-six by Sione Takitaki was the only score. At halftime, the Browns carried a 7-0 lead into the room to dry out and warm up. Defense reigned supreme in the third quarter, too, as we had a safety.

There were some uncomfortable moments for under bettors in the fourth, as the teams exchanged 10s to get the total to 39. But thankfully we had a QB Carson Wentz red-zone pick, and the Eagles weren't able to grab the onside kick after TE Dallas Goedert scored with 30 seconds left.

The highest total on the board Sunday was the SNF game between the Chiefs and Raiders, and we broke that down above. After Thursday's primetime game between the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (57) hit the 'under' at 28-21, the over/under is 1-1 with the Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48) Monday night battle pending.

So far this season the under is 22-12 (64.7%) across 34 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The bad news. On Thanksgiving, we get two 3-7 battling for a win in the middle game. The good news is that it should be an even game with plenty of storylines. And, believe it or not, these two teams are each just a half-game out of first place when normally your season would essentially be over four games under .500 after 10 games.

We also get the QB Andy Dalton revenge game. Dalton was knocked out of the first meeting in Week 7 by a cheap shot, sending him into the concussion protocol. Enter QB Ben DiNucci, and he didn't have it, as the Football Team won 25-3 in that late October battle in D.C. DiNucci started one game, then QB Garrett Gilbert started another, but the Cowboys were winless in the two games without Dalton. He returned and led the Cowboys to an upset win at Minnesota to make a big difference.

Dallas has won each of the past four home games against Washington, scoring 31 or more points in each of those games. But, of course, that was with QB Dak Prescott at the helm, too.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Ravens head to the Steel City on Turkey Day (well, night), looking to avenge a 28-24 loss at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8. It was Pittsburgh's seventh win of the season against no losses, and After their 27-3 win at Jacksonville in Week 11, they're still filing a goose egg in the loss column. That's 10 up and 10 down for the Steelers, and they have covered eight times in those 10 games, including 7-1 ATS across the past eight.

The Ravens have won the past two trips to Heinz Field, including a thrilling 26-23 overtime win last season, and a 26-14 win in 2018. Baltimore has won four of the past six in Pittsburgh straight-up, and six of the past 10 outright at the confluence.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 loss at Denver, snapping a five-game winning streak, and it's a game which saw rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa benched for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, as head coach Brian Flores looked for a spark. It didn't happen, as the Broncos won as four-point 'dogs. The Jets put up a pretty impressive effort in L.A., covering a 9.5-point number against the Chargers, but they remain winless at 0-10. It was their third cover of the season, however, and the 'over' result was their fifth in 10 outings. Flores did promise Tua will be back as starter in Week 12.

These teams met in Miami back in Week 6, and the Jets scored as many points as you and I, losing 24-0 as 10-point 'dogs as the 'under' (46) connected. Miami has won five of their past eight trips to New Jersey outright, and they have won seven of the previous nine overall in this series.

The Dolphins opened as touchdown favorites on the road against Gang Green.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears are coming off a bye. The Packers are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are going to be ornery.

This is the first of two meetings in the final six games for these rivals, with the Packers up two games over the Bears in the NFC North Division at 7-3 (vs. 5-5). The Packers have dominated this series in the regular season and postseason, winning 16 of the past 19 meetings in this series overall, including nine of the past 10 trips to Chitown, including that NFC Championship Game win in the 2010 playoffs. Last season's win in Chicago was just 10-3 for Green Bay, and the Bears clinched the NFC North in the 2018 meeting at Soldier Field while eliminating the Packers from the playoffs, so even if the teams appear to be on different planes, expect a rough and tumble affair that will be close.

The biggest question is the health of QB Nick Foles, who was knocked out in the final minute of last Monday's game against Minnesota. The good news is that he didn't sustain a fractured hip, but it's uncertain if he'll be ready, if QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) will be ready, or if we might see QB Tyler Bray. The quarterback situation obviously will make a huge difference on who to back, and what to play on the total. Stay tuned.

[Udog]

NFL betting tips for Week 12: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Dallas Cowboys offense showed signs of life in Week 11, and just might be starting to get a rhythm again heading into a Thanksgiving clash with Washington.

Anyone who comes from a big family knows timing is everything when enjoying your Thanksgiving.

Want hot mashed potatoes and gravy? You’d better act quick and beat the rush.

Eyeing that comfy armchair next to the fire? Get Uncle Leo another beer and wait it out until he has to go pee, then swoop in and usurp the throne.

Such skill and strategy are also needed to get the best of the NFL betting odds in Week 12. Here are our top NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now, and which ones you should bet later.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Detroit Lions: Bet Now

The Lions playing on Thanksgiving Day is an NFL tradition, much like betting against Detroit is becoming a weekly tradition for football bettors. The Lions limp into the holiday off a 20-0 shutout loss to Carolina and a former XFL castoff second-string QB. They've failed to cover in three of their past four games, with the lone ATS win coming by a half a point versus Washington.

Houston, on the other hand, looked pretty good against the Patriots. We all knew QB Deshaun Watson could play, but the Texans defense made the big difference in Week 11 as well—something we haven’t seen much of this season.

Houston also covered the spread for the second straight week and if you’re buying a ticket on the Texans train this Thanksgiving, get it now because the price is going up. Houston is just under a field goal fave on the road in Detroit as of Sunday night and this line will likely swing to -3 by mid-Monday...if not sooner.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Later

This AFC North rivalry has more drama than the debate over macaroni and cheese being a Thanksgiving dish (it is BTW, 100 percent). The Ravens have dropped two straight games and three of their last four, posting a 1-3 ATS mark in that span. In fact, Baltimore has only covered the spread once in its last five outings.

Pittsburgh was responsible for one of those losses, knocking off the Ravens 28-24 as a 4-point road underdog on November 1. The Steelers have still not tasted defeat this season, bringing a perfect 10-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS count back to Heinz Field, where they have played just one time since October 25.

This spread opened Pittsburgh -2.5 Sunday night and quickly jumped to -3 with the field goal spread heavily juiced (there are some -3.5 popping up out there). If you’re siding with Baltimore to bounce back in this divisional dance, wait it out and see if that extra vig becomes an extra half-point or more.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (Over 52.5): Bet Now

Two of the NFL’s strongest arms square off in this Week 12 shootout at Orchard Park. This total opened at 51.5 and has quickly jumped to 52.5 with one-sided play on the Over. And with the way these teams can sling it: why not?

Justin Herbert passed for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the New York Jets (OK, not that impressive) and outside of a bad day versus Miami in Week 10, has posted big-time numbers for a rookie passer. He’s pushed L.A. to 30 or more points in six of his last seven starts (the other game had 29 points) and the Chargers have gone Over the total in each of those seven outings.

Josh Allen and the Bills enjoyed a bye in Week 11. Buffalo hit a bit of an offensive skid between Weeks 5 and 8 but got its groove back with 30 and 44-point efforts in its last two outings. Granted, the Bills defense hasn’t pushed back much, allowing 30-plus in those last two games (both went Over), but neither has the Bolts’ stop unit—the Chargers just gave up 28 points to New York.

The extended forecast for Buffalo is calling for cold and rain on Sunday, so keep an eye on how that changes throughout the week. But if you’re calling for these sides to sizzle the scoreboard Sunday, take the Over now because it’s likely going to keep on climbing.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Over 48): Bet Later

America’s Team on America’s holiday is like ice cream on hot apple pie. Except this year, someone put raisins in the apple pie and that ice cream is soy-based. Yuck. That’s how most people view the Dallas Cowboys right about now, despite their upset win over Minnesota in Week 11.

The short week allows the Cowboys to hold that momentum, especially on offense where they showed flashes of brilliance and some bubbling chemistry with QB Andy Dalton under center this past Sunday. Dallas scored more than 20 points for the first time since Dak Prescott went down – a good sign for Over backers – and you know this defense is going to surrender points, no matter who they’re facing.

Washington is coming off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati, marred in part by the injury to Joe Burrow. However, the Football Team has put up respectable numbers on offense in the past four weeks, averaging 23 points per game, including a 25-3 victory over Dallas at home.

This Over/Under hit the board at 48 and we’re starting to see money on the Under shift the juice toward a dip in the total. If you like what you saw from the Red Rocket and the Cowboys weapons, put a pin in that Over bet and see how low this number goes before Turkey Day.

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 12
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 12 Betting Angles

Another week in the books and it was another one that held true to form with last week's angle on the best/worst points per game in the NFL.

Dallas (and the N.Y. Jets) cashed ATS ticket(s) as the team on the low end of the spectrum for points per game over their past three games, while fading the top team – Kansas City – in points per game over their last three cashed an ATS ticket as well.

That made it a perfect 5-0 ATS backing the lowest team and 5-0 ATS fading the worst team the past five weeks, and for those that want to continue aboard that train, Week 12 plays in that tracking would suggest to fade the Kansas City Chiefs again (34.3 points/game over last three) and playing on the Cleveland Browns (12.7 points/game over last three).

It's Thanksgiving week though, and among the festivities that a full weekend of wall-to-wall football action I would like to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday no matter how you choose to spend it.

It might not be a traditional Thanksgiving in the truest sense of the word, but we still have football cards to break down and that's a good thing.

So let's take a look at a couple of Turkey Day historical results that I know will have Pittsburgh Steelers fans interested.

But in true 2020 fashion, there is always bad news with the good, and sorry Steelers fans, the schedule makers may have got you for any February celebrations.

Who's Hot

Since the start of the 2006, NFL teams that went into their Thanksgiving Day games with a better W/L record than their opponent are 28-8 SU on Thanksgiving.

Found this historical angle to be rather relevant this week with all three games currently lined at about a FG or less for the favorites, with Houston, Dallas, and Pittsburgh all laying chalk against their respective opponents.

At 3-7 SU for Washington and Dallas, that game doesn't fit here, so more angles you'll want to find on that likely disaster of a game will have to be dug up elsewhere.

The things for that game I can leave you with is that when both sides came into a Thanksgiving Day game with sub-.500 records in that span, the home team has gone 3-2 SU, but did lose the last occurrence last season when the 5-6 Chicago Bears beat the 3-7-1 Detroit Lions in the first contest of the day.

The other thing to note for that Dallas game is the fact that in the six previous games that had both teams come in with identical records in the W/L column, the home team went 4-2 SU, but more importantly there were plenty of low-scoring results.

The highest combined point effort by any of those six contests was a 43-point total in Phildelphia's 33-10 win over Dallas in 2014 when both went inot the game with 8-3 SU records.

Baltimore's 22-20 win over the Steelers in 2013 being the only other game that surpassed 40 points, whereas the other four games finished with 29 points (Minnesota/Detroit in 2016), 35 points (Pittsburgh/Indy in 2016), 22 points (Seattle/SF in 2014), and 32 points (NYJ/Denver in 2009).

The Jets, Colts, and 49ers were all held to seven points or less in those games too.

The other two games this week is where this angle does apply though, as we all know it's the Steelers (good news time for Pittsburgh fans) who come in with a better record than the Ravens, but at 4-6, it's actually the Lions who have that distinction over the 3-7 Houston Texans.

Detroit has lost on Thanksgiving for three straight seasons, but all of those came against division foes. The last time Detroit went out of the division on Thanksgiving was back in 2015 when they routed the Eagles 45-14.

But coincidentally enough, the time before that saw Detroit host this same Houston Texans organization back in 2012 and they fell 34-31 in OT.

Given the ugly play we saw from Detroit on Sunday in their shutout loss to Carolina, pulling the trigger on the Lions this week has to come with some reservation.

However, the only other team to lose by shutout this year was the New York Jets back in Week 6 (24-0 vs Miami) and they obviously didn't win outright the next week, but New York did get the ATS cash in an 18-10 defeat to Buffalo the following week.

All of that makes the Lions a highly intriguing betting option this week, especially if that line creeps higher and you can get +3 with them.

Who could you follow in Week 12?

Detroit
Pittsburgh

Who's Not

Since the start of the 2006, NFL teams that have PLAYED on Thanksgiving Day have not won a Super Bowl and only three of them have even made the Super Bowl (Arizona in 2008, Seattle in 2014, Carolina in 2015).

It's not hard to poke a few holes in this history given that two of the six teams involved in Thanksgiving Day games are Dallas and Detroit and they haven't won anything in decades, but you'd have to go all the way back to the Cowboys last Super Bowl win in the mid-1990's to find a team that played on Thanksgiving and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Even during the first segment of the Patriots dynasty at the turn of the century, New England found their way to playing the Lions on Thanksgiving in 2000 and 2002, all around their Super Bowl wins during that time.

Heck even in 2017, the entire NFC East except for Philadelphia played on Thanksgiving and wouldn't you know it, the Eagles went on to win the Super Bowl that year.

Of the three teams to make it to the Super Bowl, you could argue that Arizona and Seattle should have won titles in those years had things gone their way in the final minute of those Super Bowls, but they didn't in the end, and who know's maybe it's some kind of “Thanksgiving Curse” or something this league has.

This is the bad news part for Steelers fans, as Pittsburgh is the only unbeaten left, and the first to come into a Thanksgiving Day game unbeaten since Carolina did it back in 2015.

The Panthers rolled Dallas that day (33-14) – good news for Pittsburgh this week – but any thoughts of adding Steelers futures to your portfolio right now may be left in the simmering pot for now.

This is obviously bad news for any Baltimore futures as well (myself included) if the Ravens find a way to right the ship here and find a way into the postseason.

And we can't forget about Washington or Dallas either if one of those two organizations ends up with the NFC East crown, although I'm not sure any Super Bowl futures on either of those teams are seriously being considered right now.