NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Nov. 5 - Monday, Nov. 9)

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Tampa Bay
-- The Saints are 11-0-1 ATS (6.46 ppg) since Jan 11, 2014 as a dog of more than three points against a team above .500 on the season.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers
-- The Raiders are 0-14 ATS (-12.36 ppg) since Dec 26, 2010 wen the total is at least five points higher than last game which they won.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Houston at Jacksonville
-- The Texans are 0-7-2 OU (-7.67 ppg) since Oct 07, 2018 coming off a game where Deshaun Watson threw for at least 300 passing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Kansas City
-- The Panthers are 10-0 OU (11.10 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road coming off a loss when facing a team over .650 on the season.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Dallas
-- The Steelers are 0-20-2 OU (-6.86 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 when they threw for less than 205 yards last game.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Dallas
-- The Cowboys are 0-10-1 ATS (-11.59 ppg) since Dec 16, 2018 coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

Saints vs. Buccaneers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's nice to see that SNF is slated to be a matchup between two teams that play some quality football when they are on, and not whatever the NFC East calls it whenever one of their teams steps onto the field.

It's a first place battle between the Saints and Buccaneers, and I'm sure the fawning over the two future HOF QB's involved in this game will see no bounds.

Most of it is deserved though, as Drew Brees and Tom Brady have been trading the All-time TD passes record back and forth this year, and the competitive nature of both of them will likely have each side wanting to out-duel the other in their last scheduled meeting this season.

It's still got to be about winning the game first though, as Tampa holds a half-game lead on New Orleans in the NFC South race, and should the Saints win this contest they'll have swept the season series and hold that always critical tiebreaker should it come to that.

So who wins the rematch?

Week 9 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
Date: Sunday, Nov. 8, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Future Hall of Famers Drew Brees (L) and Tom Brady square off on Sunday night in Tampa. (AP)

Saints-Buccaneers Betting Odds

Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -220, New Orleans +190
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

New Orleans

Overall: 5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS, 7-0 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.4 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 28.1 (Rank 23)
Offense YPG: 385.9 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 328.4 (Rank 8)

Tampa Bay

Overall: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U
Home: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.9 (Rank 4)
Defense PPG: 20.6 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 368.4 (Rank 14)
Defense YPG: 299.5 (Rank 3)

Handicapping the Total

Hard to put substantial weight into what we saw from these two in their first meeting, as it was Week 1 after a year with no preseason etc, and Brady was playing his first game in a different uniform.

The 34-23 win by the Saints can't completely be ignored though as it was the Saints defense who won the turnover battle 3-0 that day, including housing one of the two INT's they snatched off Brady.

Since then, it's been all about Tampa's play on the defensive end that has helped the Bucs get to where they currently stand, even if that defensive unit has probably gotten a little overhyped in recent weeks.

All the great numbers Tampa's defense has put up since then were at the forefront of complaints for Tampa backers on MNF last week, as they gave up too many first downs to an awful Giants squad, including a 4th and very long late to help the Giants push that game 'over' the total as well.

Those that used Tampa's great DVOA numbers (and other defensive metrics) as support for a Bucs ATS or 'under' play last week are going to likely be a little hesitant to go to that well again this week with Drew Brees and not Daniel Jones sharing the field with Tampa this week and you can understand why.

Brees and company have a long, proven track record of putting up points – even if it's largely from dink-and-dunk mode now with Alvin Kamara doing it all – and the Saints are 7-0 O/U on the season as it is.

I'm sure that perfect 'over' mark for New Orleans will be brought up quite a bit for those bettors looking to take the high side of this total this week, but if you've read any of my pieces over this season (or previous years) here at VegasInsider.com, you'll know I'm not the biggest believer in continually riding long streaks of any kind to begin with.

Which brings me to the play on this total this week, as it is an 'under' that I will be backing here.

All streaks eventually come to an end, and when you've got a unit that ranks out as good as the Bucs defense does in a variety of ways, them coming off a disinterested performance vs the Giants and seeing a division rival for the 2nd time here clearly puts the advantage in their hands in my view.

They've got a much better idea about this dink-and-dunk game the Saints prefer to employ – Kamara has 556 receiving yards this year and leads the NFL by a wide margin with 533 YAC (yards after catch) – and the Bucs will definitely have a beat on that.

Tampa's defense still leads the league in opponent rushing yards per attempt too at just 3.2 per try on the ground, so Brees and the Saints may not find much offensive success at all in this one if Kamara can't get going.

This run of 'overs' has come against some very suspect teams of late with Detroit, L.A. Chargers, Carolina, and Chicago being the last four opponents for the Saints, and none of those defenses can really hold a candle to what Tampa brings to the table. The notion that Tampa's D was a little lackadaisical in their effort against the Giants knowing this game was on deck is also a possibility to consider as well.

At the same time, the Saints own defense is pretty strong against the run (opponents rush for just 3.6 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the NFL) and the Bucs are always looking to be as balanced as possible on offense. New Orleans defense forced three turnovers in that first meeting, and while the Bucs attack is much improved since then, forcing turnovers is what this Saints defense has thrived on for years.

But take away the pick-six Brady threw in that first meeting and that 34-23 final we saw in the first meeting stays 'under' this total, as making sure to get the key number of 51 to go 'under' makes a whole lot of sense here as well. Since I generally subscribe to flipping the side and total results in division rematch games to begin with (if they make sense), looking low here and having the Saints cash their first 'under' ticket of the year is something I've got no problem getting behind.

Even after missing the best of the number from earlier in the week, the 'under' still looks to be the correct play. And one that could potentially be waited on with Sunday action pushing the number higher again as the Saints perfect 'over' run gets thrown around a lot.

Head-to-Head History

Sep. 13, 2020 - New Orleans 34 vs. Tampa Bay 23, Saints -4, Over 48.5
Nov. 17, 2019 - New Orleans 34 at Tampa Bay 17, Saints -5, Over 50.5
Oct. 6, 2019 - New Orleans 31 vs. Tampa Bay 24, Saints -3, Over 46

Handicapping the Side

Flipping the side result would suggest backing the home side in this game, and that too is the only way I could look at this game. The spread of -4.5 is a little tricky in that this could easily finish as a three-point win for Tampa, but with New Orleans on a 1-5 ATS run as it is right now, there are just too many holes in their game to confidently do anything but take the Bucs ATS here.

I do actually prefer the 'under' look though as a close battle with first place on the line tends to lend itself to lower scoring contests, and one where every point matters. Considering Tampa is 2-1 ATS at home this year and that lone loss came by the hook against LAC, it would have to be Bucs or nothing for me.

But passing on the side here is what I'm ultimately doing, as I've got much more faith in both defenses stepping up in a game that means so much to both sides here. Neither side particularly wants to get involved in a shootout-type affair because it will put far too much pressure on each offense to produce on each drive, and holding a point spread ticket on either side is going to bring plenty of uncomfortable moments in that case.

A Tampa Bay ML play is an option I'd much rather get behind if you are willing to lay that chalk to begin with.

Key Injuries

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees: Shoulder - Probable
DB Justin Hardee: Groin - Questionable
WR Michael Thomas: Hamstring - Questionable
RB Ty Montgomery: Hamstring - Questionable
LB Kwon Alexander: Acquired - Doubtful
DT Sheldon Rankins: Knee - Out
C Nick Easton: Concussion - Probable
WR Marquez Callaway: Ankle - Probable
WR Emmanuel Sanders: COVID-19 - Probable
RB Alvin Kamara: Foot - Probable

Tampa Bay

DE William Gholston: COVID-19 - Questionable
G Ali Marpet: Concussion - Out
WR Chris Godwin: Finger - Probable
WR Antonio Brown: Suspension Served - Probable
RB Kenjon Barner: Suspension Served - Probable

[Udog]

[Udog]

Patriots vs. Jets Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's not the NFC East involved on Monday Night Football this week, but it might as well be with the winless New York Jets hosting Week 9's final game, as the Jets would fit right in with that division this year.

New England hasn't been much better themselves in 2020 in the post-Brady era, as Cam Newton's fumble inside the 15 late last week vs Buffalo all but killed any realistic hope the Patriots had of winning another AFC East crown this year.

Four straight losses for the Patriots coming into this one, and yet, because they are sharing the field with the Jets, New England is still close to a doulbe-digit favorite for this game.

Should you be willing to lay that number, or will the Jets flirt with that first win of their 2020 campaign?

Betting Resources

Week 9 Matchup: AFC East
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Date: Monday, Nov. 9, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Cam Newton and the Patriots look to end a four-game slide as New England battles New York. (AP)

Patriots-Jets Betting Odds

Spread: New England -9.5
Money-Line: New England -450, N.Y. Jets +375
Total: 41

2020 Betting Stats

New England

Overall: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Road: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 19.4 (Rank 29)
Defense PPG: 23.9 (Rank 12)
Offense YPG: 351.7 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 357.3 (Rank 14)

N.Y. Jets

Overall: 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Home: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 11.8 (Rank 32)
Defense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 259.0 (Rank 32)
Defense YPG: 398.9 (Rank 26)

Handicapping the Total

There isn't much need to fully outline just how bad the Jets have been this year, especially when the fact that they haven't scored more than 10 points in any one of their most recent four games is really all you need to know in that regard.

Sure, New England's four-game losing streak has been tough to take for Pats fans that only know winning, but this Jets team putting up 10 or fewer points for a month just looks that much worse. Half of those games came against AFC East rivals (Buffalo, Miami) as well. Overall, New York has had just one game of their eight this year where they've scored more than 17 points to begin with.

Interestingly enough though, that outlier game offensively for New York came in their only other appearance in prime time, as a 37-28 loss to Denver on TNF became the offensive shootout nobody ever expected to see. With MNF games this year averaging 46.33 points overall this year, a total in the low 40's still feels quite low, even if the offensively challenged Jets are involved.

Flip it around to the Jets defense, and you'll see that in three of their four home games this season the Jets have allowed 30+ points against, and if that tendency holds true here, New York won't need much more than their usual 10 points/game to do enough to help 'over' bettors cash a ticket.

Remember, it's not like the Patriots defense is playing at full strength these days either, as they've allowed at least 24 points in all three of their road games this season, and Buffalo left a few points on the table last week in hitting that 24-point mark.

So there is definitely a path to backing the 'over' in this game, and it is through that lens that I'm investing in this game. New York is on a 11-4 O/U run against another team with a losing record, and the fact that betting percentage numbers currently up at VegasInsider.com currently show healthy support (70%+) of action on the 'under' but this total has climbed a full point since opening at 41 is a move and scenario I can get behind.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 21, 2019 - New England 33 at N.Y. Jets 0, Patriots -9.5, Under 43
Sep. 22, 2019 - New England 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 14, Jets +20.5, Over 43
Dec. 30, 2018 - New England 38 vs. N.Y. Jets 3, Patriots -14.5, Under 46.5
Nov. 25, 2018 - New England 27 at N.Y. Jets 13, Patriots -13, Under 46.5

Handicapping the Side

Playing 'over' the total is the much more comfortable betting option to me because when you look at the side it really comes down to two simple questions: Do you want a slumping New England team laying a full TD? Or would you prefer taking those points with a winless Jets team?

The answer to both questions in this spot is a resounding “no” from me, as I don't know how you can trust the Patriots to win comfortably, nor how you can trust the Jets to hang tough. Even in their other prime time appearance – the one where New York put up more than 17 points for the only time this year – the Jets still lost that game by nine to a Denver team that only just topped the 20-point mark themselves last week since that win over the Jets.

At the same time, Denver's a common foe for New England too, beating the Patriots, 18-12 in New England in the Broncos next game after the Jets contest, so laying the chalk with the Patriots isn't really an option either.

Belichick might be on an 8-0 SU run vs these piss poor Jets teams in recent years, but streaks like that are always made to be broken, and seeing the Jets win their first game of the year against the best organization of this century could turn out to be a cruel/beautiful version of poetic justice for just how far this Patriots organization has fallen this season.

Backup quarterback Joe Flacco is expected to start for the injured Sam Darnold on Monday Night Football and he hasn't looked sharp in either of his two previous starts this season for New York.

And while I'm aware that Flacco has gone 1-4 in his career versus New England during his tenure in Baltimore, he did lead the Ravens to 20-plus points in four of those contests.

So I'd lean to taking the points with New York as I do expect the Jets offense to find success, but that's also why the only play I'm comfortable making here is with the 'over.'

Key Injuries

New England

LB Ja'Whaun Bentley: Groin - Questionable
LB Shilique Calhoun: Knee - Questionable
DT Carl Davis: Concussion - Questionable
S Cody Davis: Calf - Questionable
S Kyle Dugger: Ankle - Questionable
K Nick Folk: Back - Questionable
CB Stephon Gilmore: Knee - Questionable
DE Lawrence Guy: Shoulder, elbow, knee - Questionable
RB Damien Harris: Ankle - Questionable
TE Ryan Izzo TE: Hamstring - Questionable
CB J.C. Jackson: Knee - Questionable
TE Dalton Keene: Knee - Questionable
C Shaq Mason: Calf - Questionable
DE John Simon: Elbow - Questionable
G Joe Thuney: Ankle Questionable
DE Deatrich Wise Jr.: Knee, hand - Questionable
T Isaiah Wynn: Ankle - Questionable
RB J.J. Taylor: Illness Out
WR N'Keal Harry: Concussion - Out

N.Y. Jets

C Josh Andrews: Shoulder - Questionable
LB Blake Cashman: Hamstrings - Out
WR Jamison Crowder: Groin - Questionable
QB Sam Darnold: Right Shoulder - Doubtful
K Sam Ficken: Right Groin - Doubtful
DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
C Connor McGovern: Knee - Questionable
DT Nathan Shepherd: Back - Questionable
WR Vyncint Smith: Groin -Doubtful
TE Trevon Wesco: Ankle -Out
DT Quinnen Williams: Hamstring - Doubtful

Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
Over-Under: 3-6

2020 Monday Night Football Betting Results

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS/Total
1 Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants Steelers -6, 44 26-16 Favorite-Under
1 Tennessee at Denver Titans -3, 41.5 16-14 Underdog-Under
2 New Orleans at Las Vegas Saints -4, 47.5 34-24 Underdog-Over
3 Kansas City at Baltimore Ravens -3.5, 55 34-20 Underdog-Under
4 Atlanta at Green Bay Packers -5, 56.5 30-16 Favorite-Under
5 L.A. Chargers at New Orleans Saints -7, 49 30-27 (OT) Underdog-Over
6 Arizona at Dallas Cowboys -1, 56 38-10 Underdog-Under
7 Chicago at L.A. Rams Rams -6.5, 44 24-10 Favorite-Under
8 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants Buccaneers -12.5, 47 25-23 Underdog-Over
9 New England at N.Y. Jets - - -
10 Minnesota at Chicago - - -
11 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay - - -
12 Seattle at Philadelphia - - -
13 Buffalo at San Francisco - - -
14 Baltimore at Cleveland - - -
15 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - - -
16 Buffalo at New England - - -

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Dolphins (+6, ML +220) at Cardinals, 34-31
Saints (+3.5, ML +160) at Buccaneers, 38-3
Bills (+3, ML +145) vs. Seahawks, 44-34
Giants (+3, ML +140) at Washington, 23-20

The largest favorites to cover

Packers (-6) at 49ers, 34-17 (TNF)
Titans (-6) vs. Bears, 24-17
Falcons (-4.5) vs. Broncos, 34-27
Vikings (-3) vs. Lions, 34-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South battle was a high-scoring affair in the first half, with the Texans leading 20-16 at halftime. Then, someone twisted the offensive spigot down to a slow drip in the third quarter, and then it was nearly off completely for most of the fourth quarter.

The score was 27-19 thanks to a PK Josh Lambo 30-yard field goal with 1:11 to go in the third quarter, as 'under' (49) bettors were hanging on by a thread. But as the fourth quarter went along, under bettors were starting to feel very good. And those laying the seven with Houston were also feeling increasingly well.

QB Jake Luton was making his first NFL start, and he did a decent enough job. In fact, the Jaguars actually had 22 first downs to 19 for the Texans, and they also edged Houston in rushing yards (115 to 107) and passing yards (297 to 267). Statistically, it was a very, very even game, and the turnover battle was 1-1, too.

The game probably should have finished the way it did, with the Jaguars falling 27-25. However, bettors on the line, as well as the total, saw a late change to the result. Luton had a 13-yard scoring scamper with 90 seconds remaining in regulation, changing the line late from a Texas cover, to a Jaguars cover, and that late score also flipped the total from an under to an over.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New York Giants-Washington Football Team (43) game, the second installment of this rivalry in 2020, went to the visitors by a 23-20 score. The game was on pace for an 'over' result with 23 total points on the board at halftime. After a so-so third quarter, giving us 33 points after 45 minutes, 'over' bettors were still on pace.

Things got crazy in the fourth quarter, as PK Dustin Hopkins opened the scoring just four seconds into the final stanza to slice the lead of the G-Men to 23-13. About four and a half minutes later Washington got the ball back, and backup QB Alex Smith, who entered for the injured QB Kyle Allen, struck for a 68-yard touchdown to WR Terry McLaurin. Not only were Washington moneyline bettors feeling much better about their prospects with just over 10 minutes to go, 'over' bettors were feeling very good, too. Unfortunately for everyone, that's where the scoring ended, and most total bettors had to settle for an unsatisfying push. At least that's how the game closed, so that's what we'll call it. If you bet the 'over' earlier in the week when the total was 41.5, 42 or 42.5, congrats.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board for the Sunday slate were the Baltimore Ravens-Indianapolis Colts (43) game, and the 'over' was never threatened

Well, we did get off to a quick start with a 7-7 score on the board after 15 minutes, but the nerves of 'under' bettors were quelled with just a field goal by PK Rodrigo Blankenship in the second quarter, and a lone RB Gus Edwards touchdown in the third. After 45 minutes we had just 24 total points on the board, and we didn't get our final score, 24-10, until PK Justin Tucker booted a 48-yard field goal with 2:08 to go. If only all wagers could go that easily.

The highest number on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Buffalo Bills (55) battle, and that game certainly thrilled 'over' bettors and those who indulge in fantasy football, too. It was a end-to-end action with at least 13 total points in every single quarter. The home 'dog Bills fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they seemed to be able to keep the Seahawks at arm's length all day. After exchanging 10's in the second quarter, we had a 24-10 score at halftime, more than halfway to the 'over'. The lowest scoring quarter was the third, with 'just' 13 points, but a flurry of late activity gave us the highest scoring game of the weekend with 78 total points.

In the first two primetime games of Week 9, the over/under went 1-1. A late flurry by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter helped them push the total (48.5) over the finish line, falling 34-17 to the Green Bay Packers. The Sunday night battle between future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Drew Brees saw 31 points on the board by halftime, all on the ledger of the Saints. A scoreless third quarter killed 'over' bettors, and we saw just 10 total points in the fourth. The Monday night battle with the New England Patriots-New York Jets (41) is pending, and featured the lowest line of Week 9.

So far this season the under is 19-9 (67.9%) across 28 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Colts will be itching to get back onto the field after a disappointing 24-10 loss at home to Baltimore in Week 9. After two straight weeks with three touchdown throws, QB Philip Rivers was blanked and the Colts posted their lowest scoring total of the season. They have had a great time of it over the years against the Titans, especially against the number. Indy is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in Nashville, and 13-4 ATS in the past 17 in this series overall. The road team has covered four of the past five overall. The Titans ended up posting a 24-17 win over the Bears at home in Week 9, just covering a 6.5-point number as the 'under' connected. It was the first under for Tennessee since Week 1, as the 'over' was 5-0-1 in the previous six.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers will be an angry bunch after getting manhandled by the rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football, in their home building no less, 38-3. The team's previous offensive low was 19 points, a one-point loss in Chicago. They'll look to bounce back against Carolina just like the last time they were dropped by the Saints. In Week 1, Tampa lost 34-23 at NOLA, before rebounding against the Panthers 31-17 at home as 7.5-point favorites. The Panthers lost its fourth straight game in Kansas City on Sunday, 33-31, but they covered a 10-point number. They also welcomed back RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle) for the first time since he was injured in Week 2 against, yep, Tampa. While Carolina is on an 0-4 SU run, they are 2-2 ATS during the span, and all four losses are one-score games. In fact, seven of Carolina's nine results are one-score games, with the Panthers going 2-5 SU.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
The Broncos were bounced in Atlanta, falling 34-27 to the Falcons. A late 21-point flurry for the Broncos helped push the total 'over', and they nearly came all the way back to cover. Denver hasn't lost consecutive games since opening 0-3 SU. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for QB Drew Lock and the Broncos, and they're averaging 29.0 PPG across the past two. The Raiders won 31-26 on the road against the Chargers, and they have won and covered in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 1-2. They also posted an 'over' result after their first 'under' of 2020, and the over is now 6-1-1 overall. The Raiders will hope they brought the dominance over the Broncos with them to Vegas. The silver and black are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games against the Broncos, and 5-0 ATS In the previous five meetings overall. The home team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight in this series, with the 'under' hitting in each of the past seven meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook ran roughshod over the Lions in Week 9, rolling up his first 200-yard game in the NFL. It helped Minnesota win in back-to-back game for the first time this season, and they improved to 5-1 ATS across the past six. The 'over' is also 3-0 in a season high three in a row, while going 5-1 in the past six overall. The Bears offense was flat again, falling 24-17 in Nashville against the Titans. After opening the season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, the Bears have dropped three in a row while going just 1-2 ATS. They're averaging a dismal 16.7 PPG in the three games, too, while allowing 24.7 PPG. The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for Chicago, too. We'll see if QB Kirk Cousins can finally get over the hump on Monday Night Football. He enters this one with an 0-9 record on Mondays posting 11 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 10: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals beat Seattle in Week 7, had a Week 8 bye, then got upset at home by Miami. The SuperBook opened Arizona -1.5 against Buffalo and quickly moved to -1 Sunday evening.

NFL Week 9 is all but wrapped up, with NFL Week 10 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. Among the noteworthy games, the Buffalo Bills visit the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams meet in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 10 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

Teams on bye: Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets

Colts at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee looks to put a little daylight between itself and Indianapolis in this AFC South clash Thursday night. The SuperBook opened the Titans -2 and got to -2.5 in short order.

"Philip Rivers was awful today, but we don't want to overreact too much," Murray said Sunday night, alluding to the Colts QB's lousy performance in a 24-10 home loss to Baltimore. "The Colts really should've been up by more at halftime in that game, and we still trust their defense. I'll never understand what the officials saw on that Marcus Peters interception. That was a real turning point in the game."

Bengals at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh overcame a couple of scares Sunday, one from Dallas and one from star QB Ben Roethlisberger's knee, to get a 24-19 victory over the upstart and undermanned Cowboys. So the Steelers remain the league's only unbeaten team, at 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS). The SuperBook opened Pittsburgh -9.5 and stuck there through Sunday night. Cincinnati is coming off its bye week.

Washington at Lions Odds
Opening line

OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford was in concussion protocol after Sunday's 34-20 loss at Minnesota, prompting The SuperBook to keep this game off the board until there's more clarity on the situation. Washington has its own QB issues after Kyle Allen suffered a dislocated ankle in Sunday's 23-20 loss to the New York Giants, putting Alex Smith back under center.

Texans at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Houston eked out a win at Jacksonville in Week 9, while Cleveland had a bye. The SuperBook opened the Browns -1.5 and moved to -2.5 within an hour.

"The Browns have to win games like this if they want to make the playoffs," Murray said. "Baker Mayfield went into COVID protocol today. That's something to monitor, but we expect him to play Sunday. We think Houston is much better than their 2-6 record, and this line shows it."

Jaguars at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -13.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay is on a mini-bye, having played and rolled in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, a 34-17 victory at San Francisco. Jacksonville, meanwhile, fell just short at home to Houston, 27-25. The Packers opened -13.5 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.

Eagles at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York held on for a 23-20 win at Washington on Sunday, while Philadelphia had a Week 9 bye in the dreadful NFC East. The Eagles opened as 3-point road favorites at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday.

Buccaneers at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay got smacked by New Orleans 38-3 in the Sunday nighter. Meanwhile, Carolina gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, though the Panthers fell just short 33-31. The SuperBook opened the Bucs -4.5, and per standard operating procedure, pulled this game off the board during the Saints-Bucs contest. The game will go back up Monday morning, perhaps at a slightly lower number after Tampa's dismal performance.

Broncos at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas held on for a 31-26 win at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, while Denver lost to Atlanta 34-27. This line stuck at Raiders -4 through Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bills at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Buffalo got a statement win over Seattle on Sunday, 44-34 at home. Arizona was dealt a surprising 34-31 home loss by Tua Tagovailoa and Miami. So it was no surprise that the first move on this line was toward the Bills.

"We moved quickly to -1," Murray said. "This is a very interesting game. The Cardinals are off a loss, and the Bills are coming off their best win of the season and the best game of Josh Allen's career. It's very much a toss-up game, and the line shows it. There should be good two-way write."

Seahawks at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
While Seattle suffered the aforementioned loss at Buffalo, Los Angeles was on a bye week. The Rams are short home favorites in this NFC West clash.

"We opened Rams -1.5 and are now -2," Murray said. "The Seahawks' defense stinks, and today, Russell Wilson finally into a game (in which) he couldn't bail out the defense. I don't trust that Seattle D at all, but I also don't trust Jared Goff. I do think the public will trust Russ to bounce back here."

49ers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans boatraced Tampa Bay 38-3 under the prime-time lights Sunday night. San Francisco had no such luck in the Thursday nighter, with its depleted squad falling to Green Bay 34-17. The defending NFC champion Niners will still be minus QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and tight end George Kittle (foot) for a few weeks, and they've got a host of other injuries. The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5, and the game came off the board once New Orleans kicked off at Tampa.

"That line will go up after tonight," Murray assured. "The 49ers have a ton of guys out, and the Saints will be a hot team after what they did to Brady and the Bucs. The Saints will be in just about every moneyline parlay and teaser next week. We will be 49ers fans again next weekend."

Ravens at Pats Odds
Opening line
Patriots +7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This would normally be a matchup of top-shelf teams working their way into playoff form, under the Sunday night lights. However, New England is just 2-5 SU heading into the Week 9 Monday nighter at the New York Jets. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 6-2 SU and coming off a solid win at Indianapolis.

"The Ravens opened -7, and we moved quickly to -6.5. This is a funny line to see when the Ravens are at New England," Murray said. "I'm very curious to watch Lamar Jackson go against Bill Belichick. It seems like a lot of defensive coaches have learned and made adjustments against Jackson. And nobody is better at game-planning than Belichick. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

"I'm sure we will need New England huge, given the top slot on Sunday night, so you'll probably see this line at 7 again."

Vikings at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Three weeks ago, Chicago was 5-1 SU and seemingly in good form. Now the Bears are 5-4 SU and on a three-game skid, while Minnesota won its last two, a road upset of Green Bay and Sunday's 34-20 home win over Detroit. So even though Minnesota is just 3-5 SU and Chicago is at home, the Bears are catching 2.5 points at The SuperBook for the Week 10 Monday night tilt.

"We just looked at who we think people will be looking to bet, after what they've seen the last two weeks," Murray said. There was no disagreement with the line Sunday night, as it did not move.

Chargers at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tua Tagovailoa and Miami got a surprising 34-31 victory at Arizona on Sunday, while Los Angeles took another kick in the gut in a one-score game, losing to Las Vegas 31-26. The SuperBook opened the Dolphins -1 and moved to -2.5 within an hour Sunday night, with Murray saying that was more a move with the market.

[Udog]

NFL betting tips for Week 10: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Titans opened as 2.5-point home favorites versus the Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and won't be under the key number of a field goal long.

You know you’re into the nitty gritty of the NFL betting schedule when you hit double figures. And here we are, at Week 10.

This is the time of the year when teams start scoreboard watching, with a close eye fixed on the standings and their potential playoff hopes. But for NFL bettors, we’re always focused on the spreads and totals and how they shift from Sunday night to Sunday afternoon.

The most lucrative NFL betting strategy remains getting the best of the number, and we share our NFL betting tips on the lines to bet now and ones to bet later. Good luck.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Bet Now

Don’t get caught on your back like a turtle – or Philip Rivers – when it comes to the spread for Thursday Night Football. Tennessee opened -2.5 for this mid-week primetime contest and will likely move to -3 quite quickly.

The Titans out-muscled Chicago in Week 9, winning 24-17 and just holding off the Bears enough to cover the 6.5-points at home (Chicago scored 17 points in the fourth quarter). It wasn’t a pretty win, but it snapped a two-game slide for Tennessee and the Titans get to stay home for this short week.

The Colts, on the other hand, couldn’t keep pace with Baltimore for four quarters. After battling the Ravens to a 10-7 lead at the half, Indianapolis caved like the rotting Jack-o-Lantern on your neighbor’s porch, getting outscored 17-0 in the final 30 minutes. It marked the third time in the past four games that the Colts failed to cover the spread.

If you’re all about that Honky Tonk in Nashville Thursday night, take the Titans -2.5 now.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5): Bet Later

This line is actually moving away from the undefeated Steelers after opening as high as -10 for this AFC North rivalry. A near loss to the Cowboys (and whoever their QB was) as 14-point chalk will do that.

Pittsburgh didn’t look great in that 24-19 squeaker, but it was the team’s third straight road game and a textbook letdown spot after the win over Baltimore in Week 8. The Steelers are back in Heinz Field for the first time in almost a month, but Ben Roethlisberger’s tender knee could make him a no-show for practice and keep this spread under the key number of -10 (although he told the media he was fine).

The Bengals also bring a lot of heat into this match. Cincinnati enjoyed a bye in Week 9 and was last seen upsetting the Titans in Week 8. Joe Burrow is blossoming under center and taking Bengals backers along for the ride, with Cincy sitting 6-2 against the spread.

Given all that, shops have jumped from Steelers -10 to -9.5 and are dealing extra vig on the underdog Bengals +9.5 (-115). That could mean a drop to Pittsburgh -9. For those who always carry an extra Terrible Towel in the glovebox, wait it out and see how low the Steelers will go.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (Over 50): Bet Now

It’s a showdown between rookie quarterbacks, with Justin Herbert and the Bolts visiting Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. The Over/Under opened as low as 49.5 and has crept to 50 points with early money siding with a shootout in South Beach.

Herbert and the Chargers were oh-so-close to a Week 9 win but this total is more about the L.A. defense – or lack thereof – which has allowed each of its last five opponents to break the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard, topping the total in all five of those contests since Week 4.

Miami’s offensive attack hasn’t slowed much since Tua usurped the starting gig from Ryan Fitzpatrick, including getting 27 points in the 34-31 win over Arizona on Sunday (the Dolphins opened the game with a scoop-and-score). The Miami defense is a dangerous crew and very disruptive but has given up big scores against quality opponents.

The bad weather in Florida is supposed to pass by the weekend, so if you’re lining up for these Young Guns like Emilio Estevez, Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond Phillips, Charlie Sheen, and Dermot Mulroney (I mean, what a cast!), get down on the Over 50 now.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 50.5): Bet Later

This AFC West showdown in Sin City opened with a total as high as 51 points but is trickling down with action on the Under out of the gate. And who could blame them? The Broncos and Raiders have played Under in seven straight head-to-head matchups, going back to 2017. Contrarian bettors: ACTIVATE!

The Raiders are an Over bettors wet dream, with an offense putting up 27 points per game and a defense giving up one point more. The Silver and Black have kept Over backers in the black, with a 6-1-1 O/U mark heading into Week 10.

The Broncos have started to show some teeth on offense in recent games. Denver has posted scores of 27 and 31 points in the past two weeks and it looks like Drew Lock is settling in since returning from injury. The Broncos defense, however, is slipping with a total of 107 points allowed in the past three games.

If you’re bucking this divisional totals trend, crack a Coors and wait to see how low the number will go before buying up the Over.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Buffalo 44, Seahawks 34:
— Seattle allowed 23+ points in every game this year.
— Seahawks have scored 36 TD’s on 83 drives this season.
— Seattle turned ball over four times; they scored on 6 of other 7 drives.
— Seven of their eight games went over the total.

— Buffalo won field position by 21 yards, a huge margin.
— Bills dropped back to pass on 21 of their first 23 plays.
— Allen threw for 415 yards, three TD’s.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.

Atlanta 34, Broncos 27
— First 3 quarters: Denver ran 41 plays for 184 yards, 6 points.
— 4th quarter: Denver ran 32 plays for 260 yards, 21 points, but that garbage time.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in five of their last six games.
— Atlanta won field position by 12 yards.

— Falcons won three of last four games, after an 0-5 start.
— Falcons in first half: 4 drives, 42 plays, 268 yards, 20 points.
— Atlanta led six of its nine games at halftime.
— WR Zaccheaus caught four passes for 103 yards.

Tennessee 24, Bears 17:
— Bears had ball 6 times in 1st half: 26 plays, 92 yards, zero points.
— Foles threw 52 passes; Chicago ran ball only 20 times.
— Bears lost their last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago converted only 2-15 third down plays.

— Titans led 10-0 at half, scored a defensive TD late in 3rd quarter to go up 17-0.
— Tennessee was outgained 375-228, but they had the lead, and they sat on it.
— Titans were +2 in turnovers, are +9 for the season.
— Tennessee won four of five home games, winning by 3-26-6(ot)-7 points.

Ravens 24, Indianapolis 10:
— Indy led 10-7 at half; Ravens’ only TD was scored by their defense.
— Ravens in first half: 25 plays, 61 yards, five punts.
— Ravens in second half: 39 plays, 211 yards, 17 points.
— Five of seven Raven games stayed under the total.
— Ravens covered 15 of their last 19 post-bye games.

— Colts in second half: 30 plays, 128 yards, no points.
— Indy lost three of its four home games.
— In their last three games, Colts ran ball 54 times for only 229 yards.
— Colts lost four of last five games with Baltimore.
— Teams combined to convert only 7-25 third down plays.

Kansas City 33, Panthers 31
— Carolina lost its last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
— Panthers covered four of their five road games.
— Carolina scored TDs on their first two drives, led 17-13 at the half.
— Panthers outgained KC 435-397.
— Panthers are 16-10 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog, 4-1 TY.

— Mahomes threw for 372 yards, four TD’s.
— Chiefs won their last four games, covering three of them.
— Kansas City’s last four drives: 21 plays, 164 yards, 20 points.
— Chiefs didn’t punt until their last drive of the game.

Minnesota 34, Detroit 20:
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their five losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
— Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions were outrushed 394-158 in their last two games.
— Vikings won last six series games, all by 7+ points.
— Minnesota in first half: 4 drives, 22 plays, 238 yards, 20 points.

— Cook carried ball 22 times for 206 yards, two TD’s.
— Minnesota covered five of its last six games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.

NJ Giants 23, Washington 20
— Giants beat Redskins twice, by 1-3 points; they’re 0-7 vs everyone else.
— Giants’ last five games were decided by total of ten points.
— Big Blue covered all five of their road games this year.
— Giants are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog.
— Not often a team is +5 in turnovers and only wins by 3 points.

— Kyle Allen dislocated his ankle; Alex Smith subbed in, threw for 325 yards.
— Washington scored only 10 points in three trips to red zone.
— Washington outgained Giants in both games this year, by 97-52 yards, but lost both games.
— Last three years, Washington is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

Houston 27, Jacksonville 25
— Texans gained 300 yards in first half, 128 in second half.
— Watson threw for 280 yards, ran for 50 more.
— Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- they gave up 25-14 points in wins.
— Texans won their first road game in four tries.
— Houston won last five series games, by average score of 22-8.

— Jaguars scored TD with 1:30 left, but failed on tying 2-point try.
— Jacksonville missed PAT in 2nd quarter which proved costly later.
— 6th-round rookie Jake Luton (Oregon State) threw for 304 yards in his first NFL start.
— Jaguars lost last seven games, are 1-5 ATS in last six.
— Texans won five of last six visits to Jacksonville.

Raiders 31, LA Chargers 26
— Raiders scored 31+ points in four of five wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Raiders won four of their five road games this year.
— Seven of eight Raider games went over the total.
— Only one of the Raiders’ four TD drives was longer than 62 yards.
— Raiders won their last three games with the Chargers.

— Chargers appeared to score game-winning TD on last play, but call was reversed by instant replay.
— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-15 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost six of last seven games, with two losses in OT.
— Last five Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers outgained Las Vegas 440-320; Herbert threw for 326 yards.
— In last four games, LA scored 15 TD’s on 47 drives; the rookie QB is good.

Steelers 24, Dallas 19
— Steelers outscored Dallas 15-0 in fourth quarter.
— Roethlisberger hurt his knee in 2nd quarter, but led game-winning drive.
— Steelers won first eight games (6-2 ATS), scoring 29.4 ppg.
— They won first four road games, by 10-3-4-5 points.
— Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY.

— Dallas started their 4th QB in nine games; Gilbert was 21-38 for 243 yards.
— Cowboys covered spread for first time this season.
— Last eight games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.

Miami 34, Arizona 31
— Dolphins won last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Miami scored a defensive TD 4:23 into the game
— Dolphins ran 56 plays, only 8 of them were on third down.
— Miami outscored Cardinals 10-0 in fourth quarter.
— Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.

— Arizona took 31-24 lead with 2:28 left in 3rd quarter, didn’t score again.
— Cardinals outgained Miami 442-312, running ball for 178 yards.
— Murray threw ball for 283 yards, ran for 106 more.
— Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Miami won 10 of 13 series games; five of last six meetings were decided by 3 or fewer points.

New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 3
— New Orleans won its last five games, sits atop NFC South.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23-3 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans outgained the Bucs 420-194.
— Saints scored TD for of first five times they had ball, fumbled in red zone on 5th drive.
— Buccaneers lost their last five games with New Orleans.

— Only second loss in last eight games for Tampa Bay.
— For entire game, Buccaneers ran ball five times for eight yards.
— Last five years, Tampa Bay is 5-13-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Bucs’ last six games stayed under.
— Tampa Bay went 3/out on their first four drives.