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**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:41 PM

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals (+7, ML +260) vs. Titans, 31-20
Vikings (+6, ML +220) at Packers, 28-22
Steelers (+4, ML +175) at Ravens, 28-24
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Rams, 28-17
Broncos (+3, ML +130) vs. Chargers, 31-30

The largest favorites to cover

Chiefs (-19.5) vs. Jets, 35-9
Eagles (-10) vs. Cowboys, 23-9
Colts (-3.5) at Lions, 41-21

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos AFC West rivalry has had some amazing finishes over the years. The first installment of this season's series surely didn't disappoint...unless you were holding a Chargers (-3) ticket or a moneyline wager.

QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers fired out to a 24-3 lead midway through the third quarter before Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay galloped for a 55-yard touchdown run to slice the lead to 24-10. Still, anyone backing the Bolts, was feeling pretty good. That Lindsay TD certainly changed the day almost immediately for 'under' (44.5) bettors. It got much worse for the latter - quick.

In the fourth quarter, the Broncos sliced the lead to 24-17 with a nine-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Lock to TE Albert Okwuegbunam. The Chargers answered back with a field goal with 7:57 to go, making it 27-17. Under bettors couldn't allow another point, but that was quickly dashed just 27 seconds later when Lock hit WR DaeSean Hamilton for a 40-yard scoring strike. Suddenly, Bolts side bettors were feeling the pinch, too. PK Michael Badgley booted a 33-yard field with 2:30 left in regulation to give Chargers side bettors hope. However, rookie WR KJ Hamler reeled in a 1-yard scoring strike from Lock with zeroes on the clock, and the extra point won it for Denver, 31-30. The only time Denver had been ahead was 3-0. Moneyline bettors and side bettors are feeling awfully sick after this one.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks game was well decided by the end of the third quarter. The Seahawks (-1) were leading 27-7 after 45 minutes, and it appeared side bettors were going to cruise to a winning ticket. The Seahawks added a field goal to go up 30-7 with 14:07 to go in the fourth quarter. However, a pair of touchdowns cut the lead to 30-20 with 4:16 left in regulation. RB DeeJay Dallas punched in a 1-yard touchdown to make it 37-20, putting side bettors minds at ease. However, that touchdown ended up pushing the total 'over' (54.5). The game ended up with a total of 64 points, but there was 30 total points in the final 14:07.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills (41) and the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (41) contests.

The Patriots-Bills game had a total of just 13 points on the board at halftime, and the 'under' was easily trending after 30 minutes. There were a total of just 20 points on the board until a touchdown and two-point conversion by the Pats with 3:03 to go in the third quarter to make it 14-14. A pair of two-yard touchdown runs by each of the quarterbacks made it a 21-21 game, and barring overtime, and a scoreless one at that, the 'over' was in the bag. And a PK Tyler Bass 28-yard field goal with 4:06 left in regulation gave the home side the 24-21 win. No overtime needed.

The Saints-Bears matchup was a field goal fest through 45 minutes. We had just two total touchdowns on the board with five field goals through 45 minutes, as the Saints clinged to a 16-13 lead. 'Under' bettors were hanging on, with New Orleans leading 23-13 with just under four minutes to go. But QB Nick Foles hit WR Darnell Mooney on a 3-yard scoring strike to make it 23-20. That was all total bettors needed to see.

The highest number on the board was the 49ers-Seahawks game (54.5), and we touched on how that one ended up above. We also had three games with a total of 49. The Indianapolis Colts-Detroit Lions, New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans-Cincinnati Bengals saw the 'over' cash in two of those three outings. The Chiefs did their part to hit the 'over', scoring 35 points, but the Jets could muster just nine total points in the loss.

In the first two primetime games of Week 8, the under went 2-0, with the Monday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants pending. The Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (52) gave was on pace for an 'over' result, with 30 points on the board at half time. But we saw two field goals and a touchdown with a failed two-point conversion in the final 30 minutes, and that was all. The Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (43) Sunday night affair looked more like a preseason game. It was ugly. Third-string QB Ben DiNucci made his first NFL start in place of the injured QBs Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, and the visitors actually held a 9-7 lead at halftime. It was all Philly in the final 30, scoring a touchdown, two-point conversion, a touchdown and missed two-point conversion and a safety, while the Cowboys were blanked. Philadelphia won it 23-9, and the 'over' was never threatened at any point.

So far this season the under is 16-9 (64.0%) across 25 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Packers are licking their wounds after a 28-22 at home against the Vikings, head coach Matt LaFleur's first loss in the NFC North Division since taking over before the 2019 season (8-1). Now, it's a quick turnaround for QB Aaron Rodgers and the boys, and they might be catching a break. While the 49ers had a spirited comeback in Seattle, it might have come with a cost. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) limped to the locker room early in the fourth quarter, replaced by QB Nick Mullens, while the team also saw RB Tevin Coleman, WR Dante Pettis and TE George Kittle leave the game for good. It's uncertain how much the lopsided score at the time played in their leaving, whether it was a precaution with a lopsided score and quick turnaround, or if the injuries are serious. The Niners are a difficult bunch to figure, as they won as home 'dogs against the Rams in Week 7, but lost as home favorites against the Eagles and Dolphins in Weeks 4-5.They're 1-3 SU/ATS in four games at Levi's Stadium, including 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in four games on the road this season.

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Giants picked up their only victory of the season in a 20-19 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 6 as two-point favorites, failing to cover. The 'under' hit in that one, and is 5-2 in seven games overall for Big Blue. For Washington, they had their most complete game of the season before the bye, roughing up the Dallas Cowboys by a 25-3 score in Week 7 as a one-point underdog. The 'under' hit in that one, too, and is a perfect 3-0 for Washington over the past three.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Raiders won 16-6 in the wind and occasional snow on the shores of Lake Erie in Cleveland, hitting a rare 'under' result. The Raiders were the only team in the AFC yet to see an under, going 5-0-1 prior to Sunday. It's uncertain what happened to the Chargers defense, but it's not good. After a 3-0 'under' run to start the season, with the offense averaging 17.3 PPG and the defense allowing 19.0 PPG, we have seen the offense score 31, 27, 39 and 30 across the past four, while allowing 38, 30, 29 and 31. It's like a tale of two seasons for the Chargers. Herbert and the offense is growing into a formidable force, but the defense suddenly doesn't feel it has to be perfect and has been way more giving.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Patriots head into this Monday night affair with a 2-5 SU record. That's shocking, as they are now 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Bills, who just edged them 24-21 in Week 8 in windy Buffalo. QB Cam Newton was a little better, but still not good enough, and now the heat will get turned up even more on his seat. Some fans are calling for QB Jarrett Stidham to get the starting nod for the MNF game, and what better place than facing the lowly Jets. On a positive note, the Patriots did cover for the first time since Sept. 28, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. And the 'over' result against the Bills also pumped the brakes on a 3-0 'under' run. The winless Jets were 19.5-point underdogs on the road against the Chiefs, but they hung in there, down just 21-9 at halftime, and 28-9 after three quarters. But they were unable to hang on for the cover. The 'under' did connect for the fourth straight game for Gang Green, as they have scored 10, 0, 10 and 9 across the past four games, or an average of 7.3 PPG.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:42 PM

NFL odds Week 9: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints barely escaped Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory against the Bears. Next up for New Orleans is a trip to Tampa Bay, where The SuperBook has the Buccaneers -4.5.

NFL Week 8 is just about in the rearview mirror, with NFL Week 9 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers collide under the Thursday night lights, and the Sunday nighter pits the New Orleans Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 9 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 9 odds

These are the current NFL Week 9 odds, as of November 1.

Teams on bye: Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

Packers at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Packers -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The public will be all over the Packers here. They’ll fall in love with the cheap road favorite, especially after seeing the 49ers get rolled today." Indeed, San Francisco went to Seattle as a 1-point underdog and trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter, though the Niners rallied to make it respectable in a 37-27 loss.

Seahawks at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
The Seahawks, coming off a nice win over the 49ers, opened -3 (even) and stuck there Sunday night for this cross-country trek to Buffalo next weekend.

"This will be one of our most one-sided games on Sunday," Murray said. "Buffalo is 6-2, but really hasn’t been that impressive. Seattle rolled again today. This will be a huge-need game for us on Sunday."

Broncos at Falcons odds
Opening line
Falcons -4.5, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
The Broncos trailed the Chargers 24-3 midway through the third quarter Sunday, but rallied for a 31-30 victory, capped by a touchdown on the game's last play. Atlanta notched a 25-17 win at Carolina in the Week 8 Thursday nighter, so the Falcons will have a little more rest this week. There was no movement on the line or the total Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bears at Titans odds
Opening line
Titans -6.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Titans -6.5 and took some money on the Bears, and moved down to 6," Murray said. "All of a sudden, the Titans are on a losing skid, and we know the Bears are almost always a popular betting option with the public. This may be that rare game where we need the favorite."

Lions at Vikings odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
Minnesota snagged a nice 28-22 upset win at Green Bay on Sunday, while Detroit got rolled at home 41-21 by Indianapolis. The SuperBook opened the Vikings -3.5 and the total 53.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Ravens at Colts odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3," Murray said. "Interesting game. We’ve really only seen Baltimore beat bad teams. And the Ravens just lost Ronnie Stanley for the year."

Stanley, Baltimore's All-Pro left tackle, suffered a broken left ankle in Sunday's 28-24 home loss to Pittsburgh.

"The Colts are quietly 5-2 and probably should be 6-1," Murray said. "Look for the public to back the Ravens, but they’ll be more hesitant to jump in on this one than they are with the Packers and Seahawks."

Panthers at Chiefs odds
Opening line
Chiefs -11.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Kansas City went off as a 19.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets on Sunday, the largest spread so far this season, and coasted to a 35-9 win and cover. Carolina lost at home to Atlanta 25-17 as a short fave in the Thursday nighter. So it's no surprise that Murray & Co. opened the Chiefs -11.5. There was no movement Sunday night on the line or the total.

Texans at Jaguars odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved

Both these teams are coming off a bye, and both needed it: Houston is 1-6 SU and ATS, and Jacksonville is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. The first move on this game was toward the home 'dog, with the Jaguars moving to +6.5 Sunday night. The total was stable at 51.5.

Giants at Washington odds
Opening line
Washington -3, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
New York is 1-6 SU, Washington is 2-5 SU—and they're both in the hunt for a division title in the awful NFC East. The SuperBook moved Washington to -3.5 Sunday night, while the total stuck at 43.

Raiders at Chargers odds
Opening line
Chargers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas ground out a 16-6 win at Cleveland on Sunday, while Los Angeles blew a 24-3 lead at Denver and lost 31-30. So bettors quickly cut this spread in half Sunday night, with the Chargers dropping to -1.5 at The SuperBook.

"We did take some Raiders money, and that line was put up before yet another epic Chargers collapse," Murray said.

Steelers at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit to beat Baltimore 28-24 on the road Sunday, while Dallas and third-string QB Ben DiNucci lost at Philadelphia 23-9 in the Sunday nighter. Murray said The SuperBook held off posting the Steelers-Cowboys line, waiting for clarity on whether Andy Dalton (concussion) returns at QB or if the rookie DiNucci is again the starter.

Regardless, the Steelers will likely be laying double digits. Murray said the line will be in the range of Pittsburgh -10 if Dalton starts for Dallas and Pittsburgh -13 if DiNucci starts.

Dolphins at Cardinals odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona had a bye this week, and perhaps that was fortuitous, as there were reports Sunday that two players tested positive for COVID-19 this weekend. That news broke after The SuperBook posted the opening number of Cardinals -5.5, and the book then took the game off the board while awaiting clarity on the situation. Miami, behind rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, is coming off a solid 28-17 home win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Saints at Bucs odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
New Orleans blew a 20-3 lead but got out of Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory Sunday, while Tampa Bay still has Week 8 work to do in the Monday nighter at the New York Giants.

"We opened Bucs -4.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Saints seem to barely escape week after week. Drew Brees can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. I think the public will bet the Bucs pretty hard here, especially if they roll the Giants on Monday night."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Patriots at Jets odds
Opening line
Jets +7.5, Over/Under 41

Why the line moved
Post-Tom Brady, New England is a shell of itself, with a 2-5 SU record (3-4 ATS) after Sunday's 24-21 loss at Buffalo. But New York is the worst team in the league, at 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS. It's not much of a marquee Monday night matchup, but The SuperBook opened the Patriots -7.5 and the total 41, with no movement Sunday night.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:42 PM

NFL betting tips for Week 9: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Las Vegas Raiders picked up an ugly 16-6 win at Cleveland in Week 8 but it was a serious character victory for Vegas, playing in an early 1 p.m. ET start in wind, rain and snow. Vegas is seeing early action versus the Chargers in Week 9.

By Week 9 of the NFL schedule, books and bettors are supposed to have a solid grasp on the contenders and pretenders. However, in this wonderful and whacky 2020 season, NFL betting has proven even more challenging with teams trying on both of those hats over the past eight weeks.

The best NFL betting strategy in all this madness is to get the best of the number for your wager. With the NFL Week 9 odds fresh out of the oven, here are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now and the ones to bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

This AFC West spread opened as big as Bolts -2.5 and is quickly moving towards pick’em after another classic Chargers’ collapse against the Broncos Sunday. Los Angeles is now 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against divisional foes since 2019.

The Raiders are coming off an ugly 16-6 win on the road in Cleveland, but that victory came in a 1 p.m. ET start (normally kryptonite for this franchise) and in less-than Las Vegas conditions (wind, rain, snow). The Silver and Black have played their best football away from the fancy new Sin City Stadium, going 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year.

If you believe in the Silver and Black or just can’t bear another bad beat from the Bolts, snatch up Las Vegas and as many points as you can now before this line jumps the fence.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Minnesota Vikings: Bet Later

These NFC North foes were headed in different directions until Week 8, when the Vikings stunned the Packers at Lambeau and the Lions laid a big stinky egg hosting the Colts. This spread opened at the customary field goal for a divisional rivalry, but Minnesota -3 is now heavily juiced and a half-point hook is on the way.

Detroit laid down for a lot of points versus the Colts, however, the game can really be boiled down to a Matt Stafford strip-sack in the fourth quarter, which broke the Lions' back and erased any chance of a comeback. It snapped a two-game winning streak by Detroit, which had also won and covered in three of its last four.

The Vikings picked up just their second victory of the season in Week 8 and are now ripe for a major letdown spot after winning at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2017. Minnesota is the poster child for inconsistency, so if you like the Lions you may want to wait it out and get that oh-so valuable half-point at +3.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (Under 45): Bet Now

Something is rotten in Raventown. Baltimore’s once-mighty offense is bringing up the rear in passing yards and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has looked plain pedestrian over the past four games, struggling with accuracy and boasting a TD-to-INT count of 7-to-4 after tossing 36 touchdowns to only six interceptions in 2019.

On top of Jackson’s woes, the Ravens’ rushing attack could be missing a few gears with RB Mark Ingram a big question mark for Week 9 (ankle) and standout left tackle Ronnie Stanley lost for the season (broken ankle). Baltimore visits one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in the Colts, who regained some clout on that side of the ball with a 41-21 win over Detroit on Sunday—forcing three fumbles (recovering one) and scoring a pick-6 to put the Lions away.

The total opened as high as 46.5 points Sunday night and quickly started ticking down with one-sided action on the Under. This total is at 45 as of late Sunday night but some books have taxed the Under to -115. If you like a low-scoring finish in Indy, bet this Under at the key number now.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (Over 51): Bet Later

Had this game been scheduled four weeks ago, this total may have flirted with 60 points. And while the Seahawks have kept their scoring output redlining through seven games (34.1 points per game—No. 1 in NFL) the Bills have not, suffering a major drop-off in scoring the past four games. Buffalo has averaged only 18.75 points since Week 5.

If there ever was a team to get right against, it’s Seattle. This defense sits dead last in total yards allowed and has given up 29 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and seven of 40-plus. That’s just what Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and this receiving corps need to get their long-bomb groove back.

The Over/Under for this non-conference clash opened as high as 54.5 at some books but a market correction swiftly trimmed 1.5 off the top and then money on the Under booked it down to 51. If you expect the return of the Bills’ big plays and Russell Wilson to be Russell Wilson, wait to see how low this number goes before banging the Over gong.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:43 PM

Hot & Not Report - Week 9
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 9 Betting Angles

Fading NFL teams before a Thursday Night Football game is the gift that just keeps on giving, as both the Packers and 49ers fell rather easily this past week to the Vikings and Seahawks respectively.

Fading these teams pre-TNF on the outright money line is now 12-2 SU (85.7%) thanks to those wins by Minnesota and Seattle, and next up this week it calls for outright plays against the Colts and Titans, who are slated for a TNF game in Week 10.

And one more thing before I forget to comment on the Seahawks, as they benefited from being on the right side of that angle thanks to their defense actually deciding to play some defense for the first three quarters of that win.

Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to be the favorite for the MVP award as he and wide receiver DK Metcalf continue to carry this team, Seattle fans might want to tell Metcalf he might not want to campaign so hard for Wilson to win the league's Most Valuable Player award this season.

The NFL has not seen a league MVP go on to win the Super Bowl in their MVP season this century (20 years), as the last to do it was Kurt Warner with the Rams in 1999. Individual awards are always nice, but the goal every year is to hoist that Lombardi Trophy and working against that type of history is quite the uphill climb.

(Also, if you do believe Wilson will win the MVP this year, Seattle futures tickets may not be the best idea right now).

This week the hot and cold streaks shift to non-conference affairs as there are six of them on tap in Week 9 and there are some interesting runs going on in these AFC/NFC games. Heck, we've even got the Seattle Seahawks involved in one of them as well.

Let's get to it:

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 4, road teams in non-conference games are 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS

This is something I sat on last week as there were only two non-conference games on the slate, and road teams ended up going 1-1 SU and ATS with the Colts winning in Detroit, and the Rams losing in Miami.

But Week 7 saw all three road teams in non-conference games get the SU and ATS money (Green Bay over Houston, Tampa over Las Vegas, and SF over New England) as it just continued on down the path it had started weeks prior.

It is interesting to note that the LA Chargers have had a unique role in this non-conference run, as they covered the spread in both of their opportunities – vs Tampa Bay and New Orleans – and had they not done Chargers things in those games, the SU record could actually be much better for road teams here.

Who Do You Follow?

Broncos
Seahawks
Panthers
Bears
Dolphins
Steelers

Week 9 brings us the following non-conference games: Denver (+4) at Atlanta, Seattle (-2.5) at Buffalo, Carolina (+12) at Kansas City, Chicago (+6) at Tennessee, Miami (+4.5) at Arizona, and Pittsburgh (no line) at Dallas.

Among those contests are some interesting betting opportunities, as once again in these Hot/Not pieces we've found yet another reason to fade the Dallas Cowboys. I got up on Monday morning actually a little baffled at all the negative reaction to that Cowboys/Eagles game on SNF for how bad it was.

It wasn't the fact that the game turned out to be awful that was baffling, it was the fact that everyone complaining about it being a garbage dump of a game couldn't see it coming beforehand. I tried to warn you all about it in my SNF preview, but to each his own.

Who knows how high that line for the Steelers – the league's last remaining unbeaten – gets against the Cowboys this week, but if bettors needed yet another reason to fade what's going on in Jerry World, this would be it.

Having Carolina and Atlanta involved in two non-conference games off their TNF game is interesting as well given they do have the extra rest angle in their favor. Following this run would suggest backing the Panthers and going against the Falcons, but in both cases it's always better to do a lot more digging before you settle in on any play.

In terms of favorites/underdogs, there isn't as big of a discrepancy as the road/home splits for these recent non-conference games, as underdogs are 9-7-1 ATS against the closing line in that span.

Just another thing to keep in mind if there is some hesitance to back the Seahawks or Steelers simply because they are the favorites.

Who's Not

Expecting lower point totals in these non-conference games; Since the start of Week 4, non-conference games have averaged 55.29 points per game

Outlining things this way helps differentiate from the overall O/U record which sits at 10-7 O/U for the 17 non-conference games during this time.

Some of those 'unders' did stay low by the hook or a single point though, which makes the fact that the average point total in these games much more actionable.

Furthermore, only two of those 17 games finished with less than 45 total points scored, as they were the Colts/Bears game (30 total points) and Cardinals/Jets game (40 total points) in recent weeks.

The offenses the Jets and Bears possess right now are so bad that taking any 'over' with them is tough to begin with.

Chicago is involved again in this scenario this week, but they do face a Titans team that gives up 61.86% 3rd down conversion rate this year (a league worst this year and one of the worst numbers we've seen in decades), so who knows, maybe Chicago's offense ends up looking competent this week.

But with 15 of the 17 recent AFC/NFC games seeing at least 45 combined points, and 11 of the 17 games finishing with at least 54 points, it's this average of 55.29 points per game that could be critical this week.

Not one total in the five non-conference games with a line posted have a total currently listed higher than 53.5 (Seattle/Buffalo), and prior to the Miami/Arizona game coming off the board here, three of the five games had posted totals still in the 40's.

Now pairing up these two runs (road teams + high scoring games) to look at going 'over' the team totals of these road squads is something I didn't look at specifically, but it goes to reason that going that route would make a lot of sense.

So if you are looking for 'overs' in Week 9, in any form, it would make some sense to start with these non-conference games first to see what else you can find.

Play the Over Where?

Denver-Atlanta (50)
Seattle-Buffalo (54.5)
Carolina-Kansas City (52.5)
Chicago-Tennessee (46.5)
Miami-Arizona (48)
Pittsburgh-Dallas (NA)

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:43 PM

301GREEN BAY -302 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

451SEATTLE -452 BUFFALO
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

453DENVER -454 ATLANTA
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

453DENVER -454 ATLANTA
Vic Fangio is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse (Coach of DENVER)

455CHICAGO -456 TENNESSEE
CHICAGO is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992.

457DETROIT -458 MINNESOTA
DETROIT is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

459BALTIMORE -460 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.

461CAROLINA -462 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

463HOUSTON -464 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons.

465NY GIANTS -466 WASHINGTON
NY GIANTS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the last 3 seasons.

467LAS VEGAS -468 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

469PITTSBURGH -470 DALLAS
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the current season.

471MIAMI -472 ARIZONA
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in weeks 5 - 9 in the last 2 seasons.

473NEW ORLEANS -474 TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games in the last 2 seasons.

475NEW ENGLAND -476 NY JETS
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (14.3 Units) in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:46 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Thursday, November 5

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Game 301-302
November 5, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.383
San Francisco
128.451
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 2 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-2 1/2); Under

Sunday, November 8

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 457-458
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.544
Minnesota
130.233
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4
53
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4); Over

Denver @ Atlanta

Game 453-454
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
129.781
Atlanta
131.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
50
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+4); Under

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 463-464
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
123.022
Jacksonville
123.748
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+6 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Kansas City

Game 461-462
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
126.562
Kansas City
144.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 18
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Under

Seattle @ Buffalo

Game 451-452
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
138.242
Buffalo
128.926
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-2 1/2); Under

Chicago @ Tennessee

Game 455-456
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
124.654
Tennessee
139.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 14 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-5 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Game 459-460
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
143.735
Indianapolis
131.356
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-4); Under

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 465-466
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
121.495
Washington
129.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Under

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers

Game 467-468
November 8, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
135.013
LA Chargers
126.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
by 9
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(+2 1/2); Over

Miami @ Arizona

Game 471-472
November 8, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
134.112
Arizona
141.474
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-4 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Dallas

Game 469-470
November 8, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
141.935
Dallas
116.901
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 25
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 473-474
November 8, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
137.640
Tampa Bay
134.562
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+5 1/2); Under

Monday November 9

New England @ NY Jets

Game 475-476
November 9, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
127.678
NY Jets
117.877
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Over

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:47 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 4) - 11/5/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 202-148 ATS (+39.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (6 - 1) at BUFFALO (6 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (3 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-189 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 1) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-99 ATS (-45.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (4 - 3) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 43-85 ATS (-50.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (7 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (4 - 3) at ARIZONA (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (2 - 5) at NY JETS (0 - 8) - 11/9/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-75 ATS (+23.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-93 ATS (+30.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY JETS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:49 PM

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 5

Green Bay @ San Francisco
Green Bay
Green Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Sunday, November 8

Carolina @ Kansas City
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 13 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Chicago @ Tennessee
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games

Seattle @ Buffalo
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Denver @ Atlanta
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Denver

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Houston @ Jacksonville
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 16 games at home

NY Giants @ Washington
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

Miami @ Arizona
Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Miami
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh @ Dallas
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

Monday, November 9

New England @ NY Jets
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing at home against New England

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:52 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Packers (5-2) @ San Francisco (4-4)
— Green Bay lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
— Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 42-85 third down plays (49.4%)
— Packers are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
— Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.

— Mullens gets start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37 in their losses.
— 49ers lost three of their four home games SU.
— Three of their four home games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

— 49ers won six of last eight series games; they beat Green Bay 37-20 in LY’s playoffs.
— Packers lost four of last five visits here; they lost 37-8/37-20 here LY.

Seahawks (6-1) @ Buffalo (6-2)
— Seattle won six of its first seven games, scoring 35.6 ppg.
— Seahawks have scored 32 TD’s on 72 drives this season.
— Seattle is 7-2-4 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks allowed 23+ points in every game this year.
— Six of their seven games went over the total.

— Bills scored 30.8 ppg in first four games, 18.8 ppg in last four.
— In its last four games, Buffalo was outscored 50-33 in first half.
— Bills scored 24+ points in five of their six wins; 16-17 in their losses.
— Buffalo is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— Six of their eight games went over the total.

— Seattle is 8-5 against the Bills.
— Seahawks lost two of three trips to Buffalo; last one was in ’08.

Broncos (3-4) @ Atlanta (2-6)
— Denver won three of last four games, after an 0-3 start.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in five of their last six games.
— Denver covered all three of its road games this year.
— Broncos are 7-3 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
— Denver rallied from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers 31-30 LW.

— Falcons won two of last three games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta led five of its eight games at halftime.
— Falcon opponents converted only 8 of last 30 third down plays.
— Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

— Falcons won three of last four series games.
— Broncos are 4-3 in seven visits to Atlanta.

Bears (5-3) @ Tennessee (5-2)
— Bears lost their last two games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears are 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Chicago won three of its four road games, losing 24-10 in LA.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Five of seven Tennessee games were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT
— Titans lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
— Tennessee won three of four home games, winning by 3-26-6(ot) points.
— Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
— Titans are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.

— Home side lost last five series games.
— Teams split their 12 meetings.
— Bears won last three visits here, by 3-2-31 points.

Detroit (3-4) @ Minnesota (2-5)
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their four losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
— Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in its losses.
— Lions are 11-9 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— Detroit was outrushed 119-29 in its 41-21 home loss to Indy LW.
— Three of their four road games stayed under the total.

— Minnesota covered four of its last five games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+2).
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Vikings are 18-10-2 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite, 0-2 TY.

— Vikings won last five series games, all by 7+ points.
— Lions lost 24-9/20-7 in last two visits to Minnesota.

Ravens (5-2) @ Indianapolis (5-2)
— Ravens scored 27+ points in all five wins; their loss was 34-20 to KC.
— Last five games, Baltimore has run ball for 175 yards/game.
— Four of six Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 10-16 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year.
— Ravens covered 14 of last 18 post-bye games.

— Colts won four of their last five games.
— Indy lost two of its three home games
— In their last two games, Colts ran ball 33 times for only 127 yards.
— Indy is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 post-bye games.
— Colt opponents converted 18 of last 34 third down plays.

— Home side won last five series games.
— Ravens won three of last four series games, but they’ve lost last six visits here- their last visit to Indy was in 2014.

Panthers (3-5) @ Kansas City (7-1)
— Carolina lost its last three games, giving up 25 ppg.
— Panthers converted only 11 of last 32 third down plays.
— Carolina split its four road games this year, covering three of them.
— Panthers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

— Chiefs allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 40 points in their loss.
— Kansas City won/covered its last three games, giving up 14 ppg.
— Chiefs are 20-11 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-1-1 ATS.

— Chiefs won four of six series games.
— Panthers lost two of three visits here; last one was in 2012.

Houston (1-6) @ Jacksonville (1-6)
— Texans allowed 42-35 points in losing their last two games.
— Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- their only win was 30-14 over the Jaguars, four weeks ago.
— Texans are 0-3 on the road, giving up 34.7 ppg.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— Last five years, Houston is 1-2-2 ATS as a road favorite.

— Jaguars lost last six games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Jacksonville gave up 33.2 ppg in their last six games.
— Jaguars are 6-8-2 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog.
— Jacksonville lost two of three home games this year, upsetting Colts in Week 1.
— AFC South teams are 6-14 ATS outside the division.

— Jaguars (+5) lost 30-14 in Houston four weeks ago; Texans outgained them 486-364, averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt.
— Houston won last five series games, by average score of 22-8.
— Texans won four of last five visits to Jacksonville.

NJ Giants (1-7) @ Washington (2-5)
— Short week for Giants after their Monday night loss to Tampa Bay.
— Giants’ last four games were decided by total of seven points.
— Big Blue lost all four of their road games, but covered all four.
— Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog.
— NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-15 ATS.

— Washington won two of its three divisional games (3-0 ATS).
— Last five games, Washington was outscored 46-19 in second half.
— Washington outgained Giants 337-240 in their 20-19 loss three weeks ago.
— Last three years, Washington is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

— Giants (-2.5) beat Washington 20-19 at home, three weeks ago; Giants scored a defensive TD. Giants’ one TD drive was only 27 yards.
— This season series has been split the last five years.
— Giants won 40-16/41-35OT in last two visits here.

Raiders (4-3) @ LA Chargers (2-4)
— Raiders scored 34+ points in three of four wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas allowed 400+ TY in four of its last six games.
— Raiders won three of their four road games this year.
— Six of seven Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-14 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost five of last six games, with two losses in OT.
— Last four Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— In last three games, LA scored 12 TD’s on 37 drives; the rookie QB is good.

— Chargers are 10-7 in last 17 series games, but lost 26-24/24-17 in last two.
— Raiders were 3-5 in last eight visits to San Diego/Carson.

Steelers (7-0) @ Dallas (2-6)
— Steelers won first seven games (6-1 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— They won 26-16/27-24/28-24 in first three road games.
— Steelers are 2-5-2 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite, 1-0 TY.
— Over is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six games.
— Steelers won field position in last three games, by 14-12-9 yards.

— Cowboys were outscored 86-22 in last three games; 3rd-stringer DiNucci makes his second pro start here.
— Last seven games, Dallas is minus-12 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 0-8 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points- Dallas is only third team since 1998 to start a season 0-8 ATS.
— Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 4-3 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.

— Dallas won six of last eight series games, winning 27-24/35-30 in last two.
— Steelers lost three of last four visits to Dallas; their last win here was in ’04.

Miami (4-3) @ Arizona (5-2)
— Dolphins won last three games, by combined score of 95-34.
— Miami is first team since 2004 to lead by 18+ points at halftime in three consecutive games.
— Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in their wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami won field position by 7+ yards in five of its last six games.
— Dolphins are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

— Arizona scored 30+ points in four of its five wins- they scored 23-21 in their losses.
— Cardinals are running ball for 160.7 yards/game this season.
— Redbirds are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— Five of their seven games stayed under the total.
— NFL teams coming off their bye week are 6-5 ATS this year.

— Miami won nine of 12 series games; four of last five meetings were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Dolphins lost two of three visits here, losing last one 24-21 in OT in 2012.

New Orleans (5-2) @ Tampa Bay (6-2)
— New Orleans won its last four games, by 6-3-3-3 points.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans won’t two of its last three games in overtime.
— Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite.
— All seven of their games went over the total.

— Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games, scoring 33.4 ppg.
— Bucs are allowing only 66.0 rushing yards/game.
— Last five years, Tampa Bay is 5-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Three of their last five games stayed under.
— Last five games, Bucs outscored opponents 83-29 in second half.

— Saints (-3.5) beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1, with +3 turnover ratio.- they had a 24-yard edge in field position and also scored a defensive TD.
— New Orleans won last four series games, all by 7+ points.
— Saints won 28-14/34-17 in last two visits to Tampa Bay.

New England (2-5) @ Jets (0-8)
— New England lost its last three games; they were outscored 42-12 in first half.
— Patriots allowed 197-190 rushing yards in their last two games.
— Last four games, New England scored 4 TD’s on 39 drives, with 12 turnovers.
— Last 4+ years, Patriots are 21-12-1 ATS as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

— Winless Jets are 1-7 ATS, losing home games by 18-9-20-8 points.
— Jets have been outscored 29-0 in 2nd half of their last three games.
— Jets are 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog, 1-2 TY.
— Last three games, Jets averaged 3.1/3.1/4.1 yards per pass attempt.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

— New England won last eight series games, last three by a combined score of 101-17.
— Patriots won last four series games here, by 5-7-14-33 points.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 12:55 PM

49ers’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be sidelined a minimum of six weeks after he sprained his ankle Sunday. Nick Mullens is expected to replace Garoppolo under center for Thursday’s game with Green Bay.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 01:07 PM

NFL Week 9 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

For the second time this season, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be sidelined by a high ankle sprain, missing Thursday's home game against the Packers and perhaps several more.

NFL Week 8 is in the books, NFL Week 9 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, which is actually becoming far too typical for the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 9 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo aggravated a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s loss at Seattle and could be out several weeks. And tight end George Kittle broke a bone in his foot and is also out several weeks. That’s on top of running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. both on IR with ankle injuries, among other key banged-up players.

The SuperBook at Westgate opened San Fran +2.5 at home against Green Bay in the Thursday night game. But the matchup was taken off the board Monday morning and will go back up once there’s more clarity with both teams, as Green Bay has issues, too.

Green Bay Packers: Backup running back AJ Dillon, who played in Sunday’s home loss to Minnesota, tested positive for COVID-19 and is under the league’s COVID protocol. The Dillon news is what first prompted The SuperBook to take the Packers-Niners game off the board, and then came the aforementioned San Francisco injury news. The game opened Packers -2.5, with a total of 50.5 that moved to 51 Monday morning, before the game was taken down.

Baltimore Ravens: Speaking of COVID, cornerback Marlon Humphrey tested positive Monday after playing in Sunday’s home loss to Pittsburgh. The SuperBook opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3 Sunday evening, while the total went from 45 to 44.5. But this game also came off the board Monday, while the book awaited clarity on Baltimore’s situation.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cards had a bye in Week 8, and over the weekend, linebacker Devon Kennard and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. tested positive for COVID. So yet another game came off the board Monday at The SuperBook, Arizona’s Sunday matchup against visiting Miami. Prior to that decision, the game opened Cardinals -5.5 and moved to -4.5, while the total was stable at 48.

Los Angeles Chargers: Defensive end Joey Bosa is in concussion protocol after getting injured in Sunday’s loss at Denver, so his status is uncertain for this week’s home game against the Raiders. The Chargers opened -3 and quickly dropped to -1.5, though SuperBook executive director John Murray said that had much more to do with Los Angeles’ fourth-quarter collapse in the loss to Denver.

Detroit Lions: Wideout Kenny Golladay (hip) is expected to miss Sunday’s game at Minnesota. The Lions opened +3.5 and moved to +4 Monday at The SuperBook.

Week 9 Weather

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The early forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday in Jacksonville, with winds of 10-20 mph. For the moment, The SuperBook’s total is stable at 51.5.

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Five days out, the Kansas City forecast calls for a slight chance of rain, but more noteworthy, winds of 15-25 mph. The total, however, is already up to 52.5 from the opener of 51, so keep an eye on this game as the forecast develops.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s a 50/50 shot for rain Sunday in Tampa, Fla., along with winds of 10-20 mph, according to the early-week forecast.

**Udog** · 11-03-2020, 09:23 PM

Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 5

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Niners destroyed Pack in both meetings at Levi’s last season (total score 74-28).
Pack 5-2 vs. line TY, Niners only 1-3 vs. line at home.

Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers, based on recent series trends.

Sunday, Nov. 8

SEATTLE at BUFFALO
Bills no covers last four in 2020.
Hawks 8-4-1 vs. spread away since LY.

Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on recent trends.

DENVER at ATLANTA
Falcs 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 last 11 as host.
Fangio 3-0 vs. line away TY, 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor.
Broncos 10-3 last 13 as dog.

Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at TENNESSEE
Bears 3-1 vs. line away TY, also “under’ 12-6 last 18 on board.
Titans, however, are “over” 6 in a row and “over” 16-4 with Tannehill at QB.
Tenn 2-4 vs. spread its last six at Nissan Stadium.

Tech Edge: Bears and slight to “over,” based on recent and extended Titans “totals” trends.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA
Vikes just 3-5 vs. spread last eight as host, but have won and covered last five in series.
Vikes “over” 13-5 last 18 reg season games.

Tech Edge: Vikings and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS
Ravens have only dropped 5 of last 18 vs. spread (12-5-1), though they’re 0-3-1 last four vs. spread in 2020.
Also 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight away.
Balt 8-6 “under” since late 2019.
Colts 0-1 as dog TY but were 5-3 in role LY.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY
Rhule has covered last four as dog in 2020, and last three on road.
Chiefs however have covered 15 of their last 17 on board.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on extended trends.

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE
Texans have won last 5 meetings SU (4-1 vs. line in those), but Houston 1-6 vs. line TY, 1-7 last 8 on board.
Though lone win and cover that span at expense of Jags on Oct. 11.
Jags no covers last five TY. Last five and six of last seven meetings “under” as well.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at WASHINGTON
After Bucs game last Monday, G-Men 4-0-1 vs, line last four and 5-1-1 vs. points last seven in 2010.
NY has won last four meetings (3-0-1 vs. line) including close 20-19 win at MetLife on Oct. 18.

Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on recent and series trends.

LAS VEGAS at L.A. CHARGERS
Bolts had won and covered four straight in series prior to Raiders sweep LY.
Raiders “over” 5-1-1 in 2020, Chargers “over” last four.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at DALLAS
After Philly last Sunday night, Cowboys now 0-8 vs. line in 2020, 2-11 last 13 on board.
Steel 8-0 SU, 7-1 vs. spread in 2020.
Pitt "over" 4-1-1 last six in 2020.

Tech Edge: Steelers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MIAMI at ARIZONA
Dolphins on 14-5 spread run since early 2019, and 12-3 last 15 as dog.
Kingsbury, however, 5-2 vs. line TY and 15-7-1 since taking over Cards in 2019.
Cards also on 8-3-1 “under” run, Dolphins “under” 5-2 thus year.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY
Saints on 8-2 spread run as visitor (though only 2-6 last eight overall vs. number), also “over” 7-0 in 2020.
NO “over” 5-1 last six vs. Bucs.
Saints 4-1 SU and vs. line last five at Raymond James Stadium.
After Monday at Giants, Bucs 4-2-1 vs. spread last seven TY.
Arians also now “over” 17-7 with Bucs and 32-15 since mid-2016 with Cards.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Monday, Nov. 9

NEW ENGLAND at N.Y. JETS
Teams are a combined 4-11 vs. line TY.
Pats have dropped last 4 SU and 1-3 vs. spread in those.
Jets 1-7 vs. line TY, 3-10 last 13 on board.
Jets “under” 10-4 last 14, Belichick “under” 5-3 last eight since late 2019, and “unders” 7-1 last 8 meetings.
Patriots have won last 8 SU in series, and have covered 5 of last 7.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Patriots, based on “totals” and series trends.

**Udog** · 11-05-2020, 10:00 AM

Packers vs. 49ers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 9 starts with a NFC Championship rematch game between the Packers and the 49ers, and after getting spanked by San Francisco twice last year, including that NFC title game, the Packers have probably had their eyes on this game for some time now.

Positive memories might not be immediately there for the Packers when they see the Niners sharing the field for them, but there are quite a few things that have broken in Green Bay's favor this week.

Nobody likes to see anyone get hurt, but San Francisco losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle has to be viewed as good news for Packers fans, and now with the 49ers having virus issues and shutting down their facility on Wednesday, practice and prep time 24 hours before the game on the San Fran side of things takes a real hit.

Now, uncertainty about when they'll play the game could weigh on the Green Bay side of things too, but after an awful showing on Sunday against Minnesota – especially in trying to stop the run – can the Packers bounce back and take advantage of all these little edges that are seemingly adding up in their favor?

Or will a depleted 49ers team on offense lean even heavier on their rushing attack and find just as much success as the Vikings did running all over Green Bay?

Betting Resources

Week 9 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to avenge a pair of losses to the 49ers from last season. (AP)

Packers-49ers Betting Odds

Spread: Green Bay -5
Money-Line: Green Bay -240, San Francisco +200
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

Green Bay

Overall: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 26.7 (Rank 20)
Offense YPG: 394.6 (Rank 9)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 11)

San Francisco

Overall: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 21.6 (Rank 10)
Offense YPG: 378.6 (Rank 12)
Defense YPG: 314.6 (Rank 6)

Handicapping the Total

Even before the COVID news dropped in San Francisco on Wednesday, the Niners injury news was still known, and I'm not sure how either side of this total could have been confidently bet.

The 'under' would be the side to look at if you believe the Niners would employ a gameplan that's heavily run-based to keep Rodgers and company off the field, while exploiting that huge weakness in Green Bay's defense right now.

A constant running clock is always a friend to 'under' bettors, and TNF games tend to skew themselves to the low side of the total to begin with.

But to just assume that the Packers run defense will get gashed again as they did vs Minnesota is flawed thinking in it's own right. Think of it from the Packers point of view in that a self scouting session would quickly reveal how poor they've been against the run this year, and knowing the injury situation San Fran has, expecting to face plenty of runs is a pretty reasonable expectation for Green Bay.

That defense could even come up with a gameplan to force QB Nick Mullens to beat them with his arm, and how successful either scenario is for Green Bay is still questionable.

Not to mention, Rodgers could just go off and have a 4 TD game or something like that in the possessions he does get, instantly ruining any 'under' play.

For those looking at the 'over' here, you've got to worry about similar things, as it's just as flawed to strongly believe the Packers defense will figure out how to slow down the opposing running game even when they know it's coming, and if SF is successful at winning the time of possession and bleeding the clock out, even late magic from Aaron Rdogers might not be enough to save an 'over' ticket.

And at the same time, San Fran's defense understands that they are going to have to be the ones to carry the workload here in the coming weeks with the offensive injury situation their team is experiencing.

It's that 49ers defense that DOES HAVE plenty of positive memories from the two meetings a year ago after setting up shop in the Packers backfield on both occasions, and should it be them that has a great game on TNF, this game probably ends up topping out somewhere in the mid-40's.

So it was an easy pass on the total before the 49ers virus issues, and an even easier one now.

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 19, 2020 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 20, 49ers -8, Over 46.5
Nov. 24, 2019 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 8, 49ers -3, Under 48
Oct. 15, 2018 - Green Bay 33 vs. San Francisco 30, 49ers +9.5, Over 46.5

Handicapping the Side

The side was the angle I had already been eyeing before Wednesday's news, and it was going to be the Packers or nothing. Now, even with it going to be a highly popular play on a very public team, it's still the Packers or nothing on the spread for me.

Part of that has to do with Green Bay's ability to bounce back of a loss – especially one where they looked as lousy as they did vs Minnesota – as they are on a 6-0 ATS run when coming off an outright loss dating back to late in the 2018-19 season. That scenario was already a strong “play on” spot for the Packers and it's getting hard to ignore.

Then you've got the whole revenge angle from the NFC Championship loss, as well as the even uglier loss in the regular season to this Niners team a year ago. That can't be overlooked either, and in hindsight, the idea that Green Bay was so flat and out of sync against Minnesota last week, could be somewhat attributed to looking ahead to this game.

Remember, they didn't know at the time that Garoppolo or Kittle wouldn't be playing, and getting one over on the team that ended their season last year is a professional pride thing that's got to be considered with all professional athletes.

And then there is the COVID situation now with the Niners, who may or not see more key players affected. That's not the only negative though, as now pre-game walkthroughs and practice time 24 hours before the game have now been squashed, and that's pretty important for a team that's working in replacements at key positions that would prefer to get all the practice snaps in that they can.

Add it all up and this is one situation where siding with the likely consensus on the Packers is really the only way I believe you can confidently put your money on in this game.

Who knows, the fact that Green Bay was such a huge public play last week and burned everyone may have some of those same bettors a little hesitant to join the chalk fest with the Packers here, especially after how bad they looked against Minnesota.

It's still Green Bay so it probably won't dissuade a large number of bettors, but laying the points with the visitors here makes too much sense on multiple fronts.

Key Injuries

Green Bay

OT David Bakhtiari: Chest - Questionable
S Raven Greene: Oblique - Questionable
RB Aaron Jones: Calf - Questionable
CB Kevin King: Quadriceps - Out
S Will Redmond: Shoulder - Out
S Vernon Scott: Shoulder - Out
OT Rick Wagner: Knee - Questionable

San Francisco

WR Deebo Samuel: Quarantine/COVID - Out
OT Trent Williams: Quarantine/COVID - Out
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Quarantine/COVID - Out
RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Out
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Out
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Out
WR Richie James: Ankle - Questionable
TE George Kittle: Foot - Out
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Out
S Jaquiski Tartt: Groin - Questionable

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Home-Away: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS
Over-Under: 3-4

**Udog** · 11-07-2020, 09:53 AM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
Micah Roberts

Public starts Week 9 with a "W"

The sportsbooks got off to a horrible start in Week 9 of the NFL season with the Green Bay Packers capturing a 34-17 road win at the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers, a game that was no sweat for Packer backers who laid up to -7.5.

“We got beaten up good last night on the Packers,” said BetMGM Vice President of trading Jason Scott. “Our customers couldn’t find the 49ers button.”

What kind of effect did the 49ers last-second TD have on the total that dropped from 51.5 down to 48?

“It was the cherry on top to completely ruin my night,” Scott said.

Onto Sunday's Action

Now the bookmakers look to get some of the Thursday losses back by balancing out Sunday’s 12 games where there’s an undefeated team playing a team that is 0-8 against the spread, the Football Team is favored, sharp money is finally turning on the Bears, and an old school AFC West rivalry with Las Vegas invading Los Angeles.

Top vs. Bottom

First up is the 7-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-1 ATS) visiting the 2-6 Dallas Cowboys, who have failed to cover a spread this season.

The public is jumping all over the Steelers at all books in Nevada and they don’t seem to mind laying -14 which is why Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick tested the waters to see if any Cowboys money was to be had at +14.5. The hook didn’t attract anyone over the counter or the phones, so maybe the proper number is +15 or +16 to help balance the tilted one-way betting.

You can’t blame the public for betting against something that has cashed every week.

Betting against the Cowboys pays out better than the ATM, and now the Cowboys have their fourth and fifth string quarterbacks scheduled to play with head coach Mike McCarthey keeping who will start, either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert, tight under his sweat jacket. Sure, the Steelers will really be thrown off defensively by practicing for Gilbert when Rush starts.

Cooper Rush, from Central Michigan, should get the start just because he knows offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense better since being on the team the last two seasons. The Steelers average score this season is 30-20.

Headed East -- Again

Another popular public team, and the top public team at Station Casinos which is the capital of public bettors in Nevada, is the 6-1 Seattle Seahawks laying -3 (Even) at the 6-2 Buffalo Bills.

Despite owning the worst defense in the NFL, 460 yards-per-game, QB Russell Wilson can’t be stopped these days and the offense is averaging a league-best 34.3 points per game. The public hates the Bills this week because they’re on an 0-4 ATS run.

Plus, Seattle has won and covered its two games in the Eastern Time Zone this season with wins at Atlanta (38-25) and MIami (31-23) in Week 1 and 4 respectively.

The public also loves their 7-1 Chiefs who have covered six of eight games, the last one covering -19.5 against the Jets. Surely they can cover -12.5 at home against the 3-5 Panthers, right? Sharp bettors disagree and have been taking the points all week from +12 down to +10.5. Star running-back Christian McCaffrey is expected to return to action this week for the Panthers and carry his normal load after practicing the last two weeks.

Public vs. Sharps

The public and the sharps are both on the same sides of the Bears-Titans game and have pushed the number from Tennessee being a six-point home favorite to -6.5.

The 5-3 Bears (5-3 ATS) have been a popular sharp money bet in recent weeks, but they’ve jumped ship and are laying the points with the 5-2 Titans, who find new ways not to cover weekly going just 2-5 ATS.

Both teams come off two straight losses.

Two 5-2 teams match-up as Baltimore (3-4 ATS) plays at Indianapolis (4-3 ATS) and the public and sharp money are divided on this one as well.

The public has the Ravens as the fourth-most bet team in parlays this week while sharp money took +2.5 at +2 on the home dog at a few books. However, the Ravens are Circa Sports biggest risk of the week thus far. The SuperBook has the Ravens -1.5 with a total set at 48. The Colts rolled to a 41-21 win at Detroit while the Ravens come off a 28-24 home loss to the Steelers.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews says they’ve taken sharp action on the 3-4 Broncos (+4) at 2-6 Atlanta, but he didn’t move the number. The total has stayed at 50 all week as well. Both of the Falcons (3-5 ATS) wins this season have come in the last three weeks and both were on the road.

The Broncos (5-2 ATS) will be playing their fourth road game in the Eastern Time Zone and have covered the previous three, and won the last two outright.

Practices in Denver have been limited this week due to a COVID-19 outbreak which included VP John Elway getting infected.

The 2-5 Washington Football Team (4-3 ATS) opened as 3.5-point home favorite against the 1-7 New York Giants (5-3 ATS) and sharp money pushed it past the most key number of ‘3’ down to -2.5.

QB Daniel Jones has never lost to the Washington’s going 3-0, including their only 2020 win in Week 6 against them. The 20-19 win was ugly and magnified more by Washington head coach Ron Rivera going for a 2-point conversion in the final seconds instead of the kick to tie. Washington moved the ball well that day and deserved to win.

BetMGM's Scott says though action has been light so far, their biggest risk has been on the 4-3 Las Vegas Raiders at +1.5 and +1 at the 2-5 Los Angeles Chargers with a total that has surprisingly dropped from 54 down to 51.5, although six of the past seven meetings have stayed under between the pair.

The Chargers have covered five of seven games, but come off a heartbreaking loss at Denver. The Raiders (4-3 ATS) come off a gritty 16-6 win at Cleveland.

Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, wow, in the NFL. I still get a smirk every time I see it in lights or hear announcers say "Las Vegas Raiders." I hope NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell does too, the guy who just a few years ago wouldn't let Las Vegas buy ads for the Super Bowl.

Up north at the Atlantis Reno, book director Marc Nelson has taken the same public action as down south in Las Vegas, but his respected money was a bit different getting plays on the Dolphins +4.5 at Arizona, and Jaguars +7 at home against Texans.

Circa Sports director Matt Metcalf says their most handled game of the week already is the Sunday night game with the 5-2 New Orleans Saints (2-5 ATS) looking to sweep the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4 ATS) in a huge NFC South battle from Raymond James Stadium.

Metcalf says action has been steady on both sides with a slight lean towards taking the +4.5 with the saints who beat the Bucs, 34-23, in Week 1 with Saints being four-point home favorites.

It’s unusual for the Sunday night game to have the most action before the early games start on Sunday.

It’s especially rare for a Friday afternoon to have it already be the top played game.

Week 9 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharp

Saints
Giants
Panthers
Colts
Jets
Dolphins
Jaguars
Titans
Broncos

Public

Seahawks
Chiefs
Steelers
Ravens
Titans

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Nov. 5 - Monday, Nov. 9)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thur., Nov. 5 - Monday, Nov. 9)

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