NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thur., Oct. 22 - Monday, Oct. 26)

[Udog]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 7
Micah Roberts

Sharps backing ugly 'dogs

There is a major sharp and public divide in NFL Week 7 action with respected money jumping on board the worst teams in the league while the public is handicapping a couple of losing teams last week to bounce back which goes against their normal routine of betting what they saw last.

The Week 7 card has a little of something for everyone, which may include snow Sunday in Denver, an offensive line in Las Vegas quarantined most of the week, a matchup of undefeated teams (Steelers-Titans), and the second "Battle of Ohio" with the Cleveland Browns (-3 -120) visiting the Cincinnati Bengals.

Juiced-Up Totals

The Arizona Cardinals have stayed under in all six of their games this season, but their Sunday Night Football matchup at home against the Seattle Seahawks (-3.5 EV) has the second-highest total posted at 56, up from the opener of 55.

Also, good to note the Cards will have about 1,200 fans in the stands for the first time in 2020.

The Green Bay Packers (-3.5) road game at the Houston Texans has the highest total at 57, up from the opener of 56.5.

The point-spreads in each of the games haven’t moved at most Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Pros leaning to Jags, Panthers

“We had sharp guys take +9.5 and +8.5 with Jacksonville and +7.5 with the Panthers,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.

“Money also came in on the Titans and they shifted from a small do into a small favorite.”

The Los Angeles Chargers are now 7.5-point home favorites against the Jaguars while the New Orleans Saints are -7 (EVEN) against the visiting Panthers.

The Titans are 1.5-point home favorites against the Steelers in a battle of undefeated 5-0 teams. The only Jaguars +8 remaining in Las Vegas is at the South Point.

The 1-5 Jaguars give this appearance of being scrappy each week but they’ve only covered the number twice while the 1-4 Chargers have covered four of their games. No fans will be in attendance again in the Chargers beautiful new SoFi Stadium.

The South Point’s Chris Andrews says they’ve taken sharp bets on Washington (now PK vs Cowboys), the Detroit Lions (+2.5 at Atlanta) and New York Jets (+11 vs. Bills).

There will also be no fans in the Las Vegas Raiders gorgeous new Allegiant Stadium on Sunday either as quarterback Tom Brady and the 4-2 Buccaneers roll into "Sin City."

The Raiders offensive-line didn’t practice all week and four of the starters have been placed on the COVID-19 list after testing negative. They’re not ruled out, but surprisingly the line hasn’t been affected as much as you’d think. The unit has been one of the Raiders' strengths, but yet Tampa Bay went from -3 EV to only -4 with a total that dropped from 53 to 52.

With the possibility of the game being postponed, NBC moved the Cardinals-Seahawks game to the 8:20 p.m. ET slot instead.

To be fair, with no fans coming and no travel plans being altered, the NFL should have moved the Vegas game to Monday night just to give the Raiders every shot at playing at full strength.

Public on Road Favorites

“The public loves the Packers and Bills (-11 at Jets) this week,” Kornegay said.

That public sentiment is the same at books everywhere such as the South Point and up north in Reno at Marc Nelson’s Atlantis sportsbook. The South Point’s Andrews said the public is also playing the Chiefs (-9.5 at Denver) while Nelson also included the Cowboys (PK at Washington) which I found interesting.

The public rarely bets a side that got blasted the week before (38-10 home loss to Arizona Monday night) and the Cowboys and QB Andy Dalton looked as awful as the word can mean.

I beleive Dallas owner Jerry Jones should knock on the Saints door and inquire about New Orleans back-up QB Jameis Winston.

It’s hard to believe the Cowboys paid more for Dalton’s tired arm than the Saints did for Winston, who led the NFL in passing yards last season with Tampa Bay. Couldn’t you visualize Winston slinging deep balls to all those Cowboys weapons?

Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda said Friday that Chiefs were his biggest risk so far. There’s an 80% chance of precipitation on Sunday in Denver, Colorado with temperatures at 23 degrees and winds at 11 mph. The SuperBook and Circa Sports both have the Chiefs at -8.5.

Kornegay said they dropped the number on the snow threat alone, not Broncos money pushing it down. The 2-3 Broncos have covered four of their games and are come off a big road win at New England that paid +300 on the money-line.

San Francisco perfect on East Coast

The Patriots welcome the 49ers this week, who will be making their third trip to the East Coast this season. San Francisco is 2-0 in this region this season, outscoring opponents 67-22. The caveat -- the two victories came against the New York Jets and New York Giants, who are a combined 1-12 this season.

New England a much stiffer test and the Patriots are holding steady as two-point favorites at most books after opening -3.

William Hill is the only -2.5 in Las Vegas. If you watched QB Cam Newton last week in the Pats' 18-120loss to Denver, you had to be wondering what’s up with him. He threw two picks, but what’s worse is that he looked like the Carolina Cam that got benched.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo knew his job was on the line last week against the Rams and responded with 3 TD’s and no picks in the Niners' 24-16 win as home 'dogs.

L.A. to face defensive test in Chicago

Lastly, a fun fact for Monday Night Football where the Rams are six-point home favorites over the 5-1 Bears is that all four of the Rams wins have come against the NFC East.

That group of the Eagels, Cowboys, Football Team and Giants are a combined 6-19 this season.

With that being stated, are the Rams really six-points better than the Bears?

No fans in the stands at SoFi in Inglewood and a small rating edge for the Rams make the spread look too high. If you like the Bears, I would wait until Monday when the public bets the favorite up higher.

[Udog]

Bears vs. Rams Week 7 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

After being on the right side of things in the Los Angeles game last week for SNF, it's Round Two for handicapping a prime time Rams game as they welcome the MNF crew into town this week.

Last week I talked about how I wasn't ready to believe in this Rams team despite their 4-1 SU record because all of those wins came against NFC East foes. I see very little value in beating NFC East teams for anyone else outside of that division, and a slow and sloppy start vs the 49ers had L.A. chasing their tails uphill for the good majority of that loss to the 49ers.

But this week the Rams are at home laying chalk, against a Bears team that's got some legitimacy questions of their own about the 5-1 SU record they currently sport.

Two of those five wins were basically handed over to the Bears by the Lions and Falcons in those teams blowing big leads vs Chicago, and even a 17-13 win over the Giants – the one common opponent Chicago and L.A. have - doesn't look all that good considering Chicago was up 17-0 at the break of that game and nearly coughed it up themselves.

Wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina have been better showings for the Bears, as both came as small underdogs and in Nick Foles' second and third start with the team. So there are things pointed in the right direction for Chicago in some regards, but will it be enough to make it three straight ATS wins (and maybe SU wins) against the Rams this week?

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, CA
Date: Monday, Oct. 26, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Chicago Bears defense has been very stout this season and the unit has helped the club go 3-0 as visitors. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Los Angeles -6
Money-Line: Los Angeles -265, Chicago +225
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

Chicago

Overall: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Road: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 19.3 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 337.8 (Rank 28)
Defense YPG: 337.2 (Rank 7)

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.3 (Rank 19)
Defense PPG: 19.0 (Rank 5)
Offense YPG: 388.2 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 318.5 (Rank 4)

Handicapping the Total

The Bears come into this game on a 0-3 O/U run as their defense has held three straight opponents to fewer than 20 points in each of those games. Chicago went 2-1 SU in those games despite not scoring more than 23 points themselves, as the move to Foles may generate the headlines at times for Chicago, but this is still a defensive-first team that expects to have their most success in these 23-20 or 24-17 type games.

The Rams are on a 0-3 O/U run as well coming into this game, as their defense has held it's own as well, allowing less than 20 to all four NFC East foes they've beaten and given up 24+ in their two defeats to the rest of the league. The Bears are considered part of the rest of the league in that equation, although they've only scored 21 or more points in just half of their six games in 2020 so far.

That being said, a couple of decent 'under' runs for both sides coming in, and the general profile of at least one team (Chicago) being a defensive-oriented one in the marketplace, has me looking at the contrarian approach for a play on going 'over' this number as the best betting option.

Yes, these two teams have met the past two seasons and played games that finished 15-6 and 17-7, but that and more importantly all the defensive metrics both sides have put up in 2020 are already incorporated into the line.

In an era where we've typically got 6+ games on a NFL Sunday having totals in the 50's, a number as “low” as 45 stands out in such a way that in the bigger picture of league wide trends this year really lends itself to looking at going 'over' this number.

And then when you see it's really been nothing but 'under' money on this game all week with the opener of 47 being steadily bet down to its current status, you realize that the general consensus on this game is related to three things. Those recent 'under' streaks both sides have had, the issues on offense both teams have had scoring points, and the recent head-to-head history between the two where we were lucky to get 20 points between the two of them.

Well, contrarian 'over' plays really don't come up that often, and for someone like myself who loves to be fading public underdogs, fading public 'unders' tend to fall in the same boat.

I get that any positive offensive numbers the Rams have put up still have to come with the qualifier that it came against NFC East teams, but this is still a L.A. squad that enters the week ranked 7th in offensive EPA/play right now, as only offensive “juggernauts” in Tennessee, K.C., Seattle, Green Bay, Vegas, and Buffalo rank ahead of L.A. in that regard.

If the Rams do indeed belong in the same offensive class as some of those teams, they'll prove it against this Bears defense who has their own legitimacy questions about what offenses they've faced, with Tom Brady and a depleted Tampa team on a short week likely being the best of the bunch.

And while the Bears may prefer to play in (and win) 23-20 type games, they know that's not realistic to expect on a weekly basis. If teams can neutralize the Rams pass rush, there are numerous ways to move the ball up and down the field on this team, and you only have to reference the 49ers and Bills games vs L.A. to see that.

Finally, we can't forget that if the Bears mantra is indeed to try and be on the right side of as many 23-20 type games as they can, that total is still just a FG shy of going 'over' this current number.

Doesn't take much in the NFL for a bounce, or penalty, or any number of things to go a certain way to lead to those extra points an 'over' ticket may need late in this game, as today's NFL has shown us that teams can go 'over' a mid-40's total almost by accident.

I believe we may see exactly that happen here.

Head-to-Head History

Nov. 17, 2019 - Los Angeles 17 vs. Chicago 7, Rams -5.5, Under 40
Dec. 9, 2018 - Chicago 15 vs. Los Angeles 6, Bears +3, Under 51

Handicapping the Side

The side in this game is an easy pass all the way around with the legitimacy question marks attached to both teams. I doubted the Rams were as good as their 4-1 SU record suggested last week, and nothing they did in that San Francisco game changed my view on that. Especially not enough to consider laying six points with them in this game.

And the Bears feel a lot like the Rams did a week ago, with legitimacy questions surrounding their record still largely unanswered at this point in my view.

Taking the points with Chicago could work out with the idea that it is a lot of points to give a 5-1 SU team, but when you question how “real” that 5-1 SU record is, that +6 point spread attached to their name generally looks like it is where it probably should be.

If anything, I do expect the Rams to find a way to win this game, so teasing them down or putting L.A. in a ML parlay or something like that would be the only thing I'd consider here.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6

The largest favorites to cover

Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.

The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.

If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.

With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.

The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.

The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.

In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.

The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.

In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.

So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Browns 37, Cincinnati 34
— Mayfield threw a 24-yard TD pass with 0:11 left to win this exciting game.
— Browns’ last five drives: 40 plays, 379 yards, five TD’s (34 points)
— Cleveland split its four road games, giving up 37 ppg.
— Last 4+ years, Cleveland is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

— Bengals had ball in Cleveland red zone on 7 of their 8 drives.
— Rookie QB Burrow threw for 406 yards; Bengals scored TD’s on their last two drives.
— Bengals scored 30-34 points against Cleveland this year, but lost both games.
— Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS this season.
— Divisional home underdogs are 8-0 ATS so far this season.

Washington 25, Cowboys 3
— Dallas is first team EVER to allow 20+ first half points, six games in a row.
— Last six games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Dallas offense in 2nd half: 19 plays, 30 yards, 3 first downs, zero points.

— Washington outrushed Dallas 208-83.
— Washington had lost its previous five games, before this easy win.
— This is only 2nd win for Washington in last nine series games.
— Washington in 1st half, on 5 drives: 33 plays, 276 yards, three TD’s.
— Washington sacked two Dallas QB’s 6 times; they KO’d Andy Dalton.

Lions 23, Atlanta 22
— Stafford threw an 11-yard TD pass on the last play of the game for the win.
— Prater made FG’s of 50-51-49 yards; the game-winning PAT was 50 yards long.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their three losses; 22-23-16 in their wins.
— Detroit won field position by 12-yard average.
— NFC North teams are 13-5 ATS outside the division.

— Atlanta scored a TD with 1:04 left, instead of taking a knee that would’ve ended the game, and that gave Detroit the chance they needed to win the game.
— Atlanta lost all four of its home games, giving up 28.5 ppg.
— Falcons are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Home side lost six of last eight series games.
— NFC South teams are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional home games.

New Orleans 27, Panthers 24
— Carolina just barely missed a 65-yard FG with 1:55 left that would’ve tied it.
— Panthers ran ball only 14 times for 37 yards- they only ran 43 plays overall.
— Carolina converted 6-9 third down plays; New Orleans 12-14.
— Carolina is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.

— New Orleans outgained Panthers 415-283.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Saints had ball six times; three TD’s, two FG’s and a fumble.
— All six of their games went over the total.
— Saints won seven of last eight series games; four of their last five series wins were by 5 or fewer points.

Bills 18, NJ Jets 10
— Buffalo won game without scoring a TD; they made 6-8 FG’s.
— Bills had ball nine times, and tried FG’s on 8 of the 9 drives.
— Buffalo won field position by 10 yards, ran 72 plays, to 51 for Jets.
— Total yardage in game: 422-190, Bills.
— Last time Buffalo won without scoring a TD? Week 13 of 2007, in a 17-16 win at Washington.

— Jets haven’t won yet, but they covered here- they’ve lost all their home games by 18-9-20-8 points.
— Weird thing is, they’re +4 in turnovers the last four games, but were still outscored by a combined 109-48.
— Jets in second half: 16 plays, four yards, 2 first downs, no points.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Divisional home underdogs are 8-0 ATS so far this season.

Packers 35, Houston 20
— Packers scored TD’s on four of their first six drives.
— Green Bay won five of its six games, losing in Week 6 to Tampa.
— Packers are 3-0 in domes this season, scoring 43-37-35 points.
— Green Bay converted 7-12 3rd down plays; they did have a punt blocked.
— NFC North teams are 13-5 ATS outside the division.

— Texans lost six of their first seven games, giving up 28+ points in every game.
— Total yardage was close: 379-365 Packers, but Green Bay led 21-0 at the half.
— Houston is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 ATS.

Steelers 27, Tennessee 24
— Steelers won first six games (5-1 ATS), scoring 30.5 ppg.
— Pittsburgh’s first two drives: 29 plays, 136 yards, two TD’s, TOP: 16:23.
— Steelers led 24-7 at halftime, then hung on for dear life.
— Pittsburgh won six of last eight series games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

— Tennessee has played five games decided by 3 or fewer points or in OT.
— Titans scored 17+ points in 2nd half, in each of their last four games.
— Tennessee ran only 56 plays in this game; Steelers ran 74.
— Over is 3-1-1 in Titans’ last five games.
— AFC South teams are 7-10 ATS outside the division.

49ers 33, New England 6
— 49ers ran ball for 197 yards, outgained New England 467-247
— Niners are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— 49ers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— NFC West teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— First half overs are 66-37-2 so far this season.

— Patriots lost last three games, scoring two TD’s on 30 drives, with 11 turnovers.
— New England ran only 49 plays, were 1-6 on 3rd down, threw four INTs.
— Last three games, Patriots are minus-9 in turnovers, were outscored 41-9 in first half.
— Newton was benched in this game after going 9-15/98 with three INT’s.
— AFC East teams are 5-11 ATS outside the division.

Chiefs 43, Denver 16
— Chiefs scored 43, and didn’t convert a third down (0-8).
— Chiefs are 4-0 on foreign soil, winning by 3-14-9-27 points.
— KC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs scored a defensive TD and ran a kick back for a TD.
— Chiefs won last ten series games, last three by total of 96-25.

— Denver turned ball over four times, allowed a kick return TD.
— Broncos lost all three of their home games, 16-14/28-10/43-16.
— Chiefs won their last four visits to Denver.
— Divisional home underdogs are now 8-1 ATS so far this season.

Buccaneers 45, Las Vegas 20
— Buccaneers’ last 7 drives: five touchdowns, one FG.
— Tampa Bay won five of its last six games, scoring 36.5 ppg.
— Bucs are allowing only 66.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— NFC South non-divisional road teams are 6-3 ATS.

— Raiders scored 34-34-40 points in their wins, 20-23-20 in losses.
— Las Vegas has led only one of its games at halftime, beck in Week 1.
— All six of their games went over the total.
— Raiders didn’t have a sack or a takeaway, allowed 8.2 yards/pass attempt.

LA Chargers 39, Jaguars 29
— Jaguars trailed 16-0 early, then scored three straight TD’s, last one on a blocked punt.
— Jaguars lost last six games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Jacksonville gave up 33.2 ppg in its last six games.
— Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 6-12 ATS outside the division.

— Rookie QB Herbert threw for 347 yards, got his first NFL win.
— Chargers outgained Jacksonville 484-294.
— Last five times Bolts had ball: 31 plays, 264 yards, three TD’s, FG, missed FG
— Herbert ran 9 times for 66 yards; he was LA’s leading rusher.
— AFC West teams are 11-5-2 ATS outside the division.

Arizona 37, Seahawks 34 OT
— Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards, three TD’s.
— Seahawks had 42-yard TD nullified by a holding penalty with 1:04 left in OT.
— Seattle won five of its first six games, scoring 33.7 ppg.
— Road team is 9-2-1 SU in last 12 series games.
— First loss for Seahawks in their last seven visits to the desert.
— Five of their six games went over the total.

— Cardinals scored 10 points in last 2:28 to send game to OT.
— Only time Arizona led the game was when they kicked FG in OT.
— Murray threw for 360 yards, three TD’s; ran ball for 67 yards and a TD.
— Arizona DB Budda Baker picked off a 1st half pass and appeared to headed for a TD, but was caught from behind by Seattle WR Metcalf. Cardinals didn’t score on the ensuing drive.
— Divisional home underdogs are now 9-1 ATS so far this season.

Dodgers 4, Rays 2 (LA leads 3-2)
— Dodgers scored twice in first inning, hung on from there.
— LA bullpen got the last 10 outs without allowing a run.
— Pederson homered for the Dodgers.
— Game 5 is Tuesday night.

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 8: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.

NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 8 odds

These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.



Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals

Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Colts at Lions odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
Detroit scored a touchdown on the final play Sunday to steal a 23-22 victory at Atlanta, the Lions' third win in their last four games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is coming off its bye week. The Colts opened as 2.5-point road chalk, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Vikings at Packers odds
Opening line
Packers -7.5, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Minnesota is coming off a much-needed bye, with a 1-5 record after providing Atlanta its only win of the season in Week 6. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay rebounded from a Tampa Bay beatdown by topping Houston 35-20 on the road Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Packers -7.5, and that line ticked to -7 Sunday night.

Patriots at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved
New England has a combined 18 points over its last two games, both home losses, including Sunday's 33-6 blasting at the hands of San Francisco. So although Buffalo was no great shakes in an 18-10 road win over the hapless New York Jets, The SuperBook opened the Bills -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 Sunday night.

"There were a number of voices in the room that wanted to open it higher," Murray said Sunday night. "The Patriots are a mess right now, coming off back-to-back home losses against the Broncos and 49ers. The Bills aren’t great by any means, but they are the class of the division and could take a stranglehold on the AFC East with a win here."

Titans at Bengals odds
Opening line
Bengals +3.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Tennessee made a nice comeback that fell just short against Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Titans' first loss of the year. Cincinnati scored late to take the lead at home against Cleveland, but gave up a TD in the waning seconds to lose 37-34. The Titans opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -4 Sunday night.

Raiders at Browns odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Cleveland eked out a final-seconds 37-34 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday, but lost star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a knee injury, possibly for the season. Still, The SuperBook opened the Browns -3 against Las Vegas, which got outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter of a 45-20 loss to visiting Tampa Bay.

"This feels like the kind of game where the Raiders surprise everyone and go on the road and scratch out a win," Murray said Sunday night. "Their loss today was closer than the final score indicated, and the Browns (likely) lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the year. Tough spot for Cleveland, off that great win in Cincinnati."

Jets at Chiefs odds
Opening line
-21.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
The Jets are the last winless team in the NFL this season, at 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS), though they finally covered Sunday in an 18-10 loss to Buffalo as 10-point home underdogs. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) and ripped host Denver 43-16 in the snow Sunday. So this game has a monster spread, the largest of this NFL season.

"We opened Chiefs -21.5 and were bet down to -20.5," Murray said. "I know everyone will want to talk about this game, but it’s really a pretty simple one. How much will the Chiefs care? Sure, they could win by more than this spread, but will they even bother to? Will they play Patrick Mahomes in the second half if they are up by 21 at halftime?

"I don’t know why they would. A big number like this will scare a lot of people off. They’ll look for somewhere else to invest their dollars."

Rams at Dolphins odds
Opening line
Dolphins +3.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Los Angeles still has Week 7 work to do in the Monday nighter against visiting Chicago, while Miami is coming off a bye. The Rams opened 3.5-point road favorites, with no line movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Saints at Bears odds
Opening line
Bears +2, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New Orleans hung on to edge visiting Carolina 27-24 Sunday, while Chicago is in the Week 7 Monday nighter at the Los Angeles Rams.

"We moved from Saints -2 to -2.5 quickly," Murray said. "This line may move off Monday night’s Bears-Rams game. The Saints continue to underwhelm. They’re just barely getting by week to week, even when they run into mediocre opposition."

49ers at Seahawks odds
Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened this NFC West clash at Seahawks -3.5, then the game came off the board once Seattle kicked off its Week 7 Sunday night game at Arizona. The game will go back up Monday morning.

"The 49ers crushed the Rams and Patriots on back-to-back weekends, and their power rating is starting to creep up toward where it was preseason," Murray said. "They could be a force later in the year, if they can stay relatively healthy."

Cowboys at Eagles odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
As if Dallas didn't have enough injury issues, most notably losing quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle) for the season, now backup Andy Dalton's status is uncertain. Dalton suffered a concussion in the third quarter of an embarrassing 25-3 loss at Washington.

Murray said The SuperBook kept this matchup off the board Sunday night, waiting for clarity on who the Cowboys will have under center.

Buccaneers at Giants odds
Opening line
Giants +10, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay is atop the NFC South at 5-2 (4-3 ATS), while New York is at the bottom of the NFC East at 1-6 (4-3 ATS). So The SuperBook opened the Bucs 10-point favorites in the Week 8 Monday night game, with no early line movement.

Chargers at Broncos odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Denver got throttled at home 43-16 by Kansas City on Sunday, while Los Angeles claimed a 39-29 home win over Jacksonville. The SuperBook figured it was a coin toss and opened at pick, and the Chargers moved to -1.5 by late Sunday evening.

Steelers at Ravens odds
Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU and a stout 5-1 ATS, as well, while Baltimore (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has only a loss to Kansas City. The Ravens are coming off a bye and playing at home in this 1 p.m. ET Sunday clash.

"We opened the Ravens up at -6 in what really should be the Sunday Night Football game next week," Murray said, noting that the line dipped a notch to Ravens -5.5. "This is a great matchup, and we get it again on Thanksgiving night. It’s also a great handle game. The Ravens will get a ton of support on the point spread and in moneyline parlays, but I also expect there to be a lot of takers on the Steelers. They are undefeated and have a huge following."

[Udog]

NFL betting tips for Week 8: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.

It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.

This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.

The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now

The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.

The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.

Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.

If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later

Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.

Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.

The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.

I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now

Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.

The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.

The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later

Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.

Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).

The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.

These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.