NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., Oct. 15 - Monday, Oct. 19)

[Udog]

Rams vs. 49ers Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the third straight week it's the NFC West that gets some part of the Sunday Night Football spotlight, and the San Francisco 49ers are hoping this home date turns out better than their last one.

That was a tough 25-20 home loss to the Eagles as heavy home chalk, and now two weeks later they are catching a field goal with the division rival Los Angeles Rams in town.

Who ends up playing (and even playing well) for the 49ers at QB is a huge question coming into the game and they are an easy target to be picked on right now because of it.

The 49ers upcoming schedule is about as rough as it gets, so this could spiral downwards in a heartbeat, but a counted out former champ can be tough to completely dispose of.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

The San Francisco 49ers have struggled at Levi's Stadium this season, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. (AP)

Line Movements

The Rams know all about the post-Super Bowl struggles a team like the 49ers appear to be dealing with, as that was the Rams at the beginning of last year.

Starting out this year with a 4-1 SU record is great, but when all four of those wins have come against NFC East teams, you know there are going to be questions about resume quality.

Beating the defending conference champs regardless of what state they are currently in can't hurt the Rams resume going forward, but have they done enough to be a road favorite for this game?

Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -165 San Francisco +145
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 14)
Defense PPG: 18.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 403.6 (Rank 4)
Defense YPG: 304.2 (Rank 4)

San Francisco

Overall: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Home: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 24.8 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 364.2 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 323 (Rank 5)

Handicapping the Total

Not knowing the starter under center for the Niners for certain makes it tough to be confident in either side of this total.

I would argue that the quarterback trio we've seen from San Francisco are all closer to being equal in overall skill set than they aren't, but that is more helpful in determining a side rather than a total. Chemistry between whomever is throwing the ball and the pass catchers are out there does change based on the name.

But this is still a Rams team that's run through weak NFC East competition so far, although they did hold Dallas to just 17 points. But their game against Buffalo saw the Bills finish with 35, and no matter who the 49ers go with at QB, it's still going to be better than most of what LA saw from the Giants or Washington.

This is also going to be one of the first halfway decent defenses the Rams will have seen this year, as again, their 2020 has consisted of beating up on the NFC East. It's been a division rivalry where the winner has put up at least 30 in five of the past six meetings, and I'm not sure the Rams can get there, but them getting to that number wouldn't be surprising either. Buffalo's shown to be one of the better defenses the Rams have played and they hung 30+ on the Bills.

Long way of saying that this total is probably right where it should be, and it's a series where I think flipping the total result in the rematch might be the better way to approach the two games these two play this year. Too much uncertainty here on both ends, and we'll have a much better profile of each squad when they meet again at the end of November.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 21, 2019 - San Francisco 34 vs. Los Angeles 31, 49ers -7, Over 45.5
Oct. 13, 2019 - San Francisco 20 vs. Los Angeles 7, 49ers +3, Under 50
Dec. 30, 2018 - Los Angeles 48 vs. San Francisco 32, Rams -10.5, Over 50
Oct. 21, 2018 - Los Angeles 39 at San Francisco 10, Rams -9, Under 52

Handicapping the Side

I might not be able to call a one-point win for the home side like last week, but with me lumping all of the 49ers QB options into a group I can expect what to get from, siding with the underdog and the points as I did a week ago is the play once again.

I do think the Rams are an above average team this year, but their 4-1 SU record doesn't hold nearly the same weight that some other four-win teams have at this point in the year. It's inflating their stock just ever so slightly, and when paired with a 49ers stock that's about as low as it can get right now, it just doesn't seem like this line is completely correct.

Had Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners just got beat at home last week against Miami – not utterly demolished from start to finish – I don't think the perception of this 49ers team is as low as it currently seems to be.

Last week's play isn't necessarily a good thing for the Niners long term this year, as they may be an average team that simply overachieved last year, but in a spot where it's got to feel like the direction of their season is on the line, I think we get the best versions of whomever is out there on the field in San Fran colors.

All three QB options for the 49ers have recent starting experience with this team so there are minimal worries there, and it was just a few weeks ago that the Rams were a two-point road dog vs Philly, while the 49ers were laying -8.5 at home against that same Eagles team a couple of weeks later. The drastically different results for those teams in those games isn't quite worth the adjustment here in my view, and the Rams record could get somewhat exposed here.

San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog – a role they've yet to be in this season – and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. I believe the 49ers play up to the level of their competition in this spot, and facing a familiar foe who they swept last year might allow the Niners to play more on instinct and not have them try to overthink their way out of this funk.

I may not be sure about who ultimately takes the field for San Francisco in this game, but I'm also not sure about what this Rams team truly is in 2020. Until they show me a more definitive picture one way or the other, I just don't think I can agree with this picture being painted of the Rams being worthy road favorites in this spot. I don't even think they win the game.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Elbow - Out
S Jordan Fuller: Shoulder - Out
LB Micah Kiser: Groin - Questionable
OT Bobby Evans: Shoulder - Probable

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Probable
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Calf
S Marcell Harris: Ankle
CB Emmanuel Moseley: Concussion - Questionable
CB Dontae Johnson: Groin - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Knee - Out
LB Kwon Alexander: Anle - Out

[Udog]

[Udog]

Chiefs vs. Bills Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Through no fault of their own, the Buffalo Bills are on that rare Tuesday-Monday turn around this week as they look for a much better showing then they had in Tennessee last week.

But even with the disjointed nature of their schedule the past few weeks, the Bills still get a Tuesday-Monday break between games here, compared to the Sunday-Thursday break they would have had had this game gone on normally as scheduled on a Thursday night.

Can't complain too much about that when the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL

The Chiefs have posted a 2-0 record on the road as they pay a visit to the Bills on Monday Night. (AP)

Spread: Kansas -4.5
Money-Line: Kansas City -220, Buffalo +190
Total: 57.5

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 9)
Defense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 407.2 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 382.8 (Rank 20)

Buffalo

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-0-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.8 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 28.4 (Rank 22)
Offense YPG: 401.8 (Rank 5)
Defense YPG: 371.8 (Rank 17)

Handicapping the Total

The total is quite interesting here as both teams are known for their offensive play this year, but it's both defenses that are coming off efforts that saw opponents hang 40 or more on them.

The Chiefs defense is to blame for most of those points, but you can't hang the Bills defense completely out to dry after that effort in Tennessee given how many short fields they had to deal with. But Buffalo opponents have still averaged 31.25 points per game over their last four, as suspect defense in Buffalo is starting to look like it might be a trend.

Yet, I think the best way to look at this game is through the eyes of both defenses wanting to rebound after rough outings, and both offenses looking to take much better care of the ball. Kansas City isn't going to want to bleed their defense to death with them losing the time of possession battle in a big way again, and sustaining, and lengthening drives when need be may be an offensive philosophy we see from KC a bit more here.

They know they can connect on the "Home Run" play if need be, we as bettors know that, but that's three out of four games the Chiefs have been outgained in total yardage now, largely because they are getting smokes in the time of possession battle.

Tennessee may not have had the greatest success running on Buffalo, but the weakness of this suspect defense is in stopping the run and I think the Bills went overboard in trying to protect it against the Titans. They'll loosen up a bit there and if KC commits to the running game early (in an effort to give rest to their defense), they'll find enough success to shorten a game with a total of 57.5 rather quickly.

At the same time, Buffalo's going to want to run the ball and control time of possession as much as they can, because that's what everyone seems to believe is the best path to success against the Chiefs, and rightfully so. KC's defense has seen what works in slowing down quarterback Josh Allen from the zone looks Tennessee gave them on Tuesday, and that means that running lanes and controlling the time of possession battle will be there for the taking for Buffalo's offense.

Expecting both teams to run the ball more (for their varying reasons), along with these defenses tightening things up after rough outings in a measuring stick type game – at least for the Bills – the 'under' is the way to look here in my opinion.

Buffalo can never feel comfortable about their chances of pulling off the upset win in a shootout-type contest, and it's still a road game for the Chiefs who know the recipe for winning on the road is to run the ball and play good defense. Scoring may be up this year, but this Chiefs team still loves to play that conservative style on the road as they are 0-5 O/U in their last five road games, part of which includes a 1-4 O/U run when listed as a road favorite.

If Buffalo's going to pull off the upset here, they will need to likely keep KC to 24 or less and even then it will be close. Buffalo's yet to cash an 'under' ticket this year against the closing line, and that's probably not a true reflection of where this team's O/U record will end up by the end of the year.

But the belief this Bills defense will continue to trend in the wrong direction with Mahomes and company in town isn't a hard one to get behind, and the number's probably a shade higher then it should be as is usually the case with Chiefs games in the big picture as well.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Nov. 26, 2017 - Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10, Bills +8.5, Under 47
Nov. 29, 2015 - Kansas City 30 vs. Buffalo 22, Chiefs -4, Over 40.5

Handicapping the Side

Along the lines of thinking that both defenses will rebound to a degree after rough outings helps an 'under' look, it's a perspective that makes it tough to hone in on a side.

The fact that both sides are coming off losses, it makes a strong bounce back spot argument in both directions, and a Chiefs win that stays inside this current spread would befit this potential playoff preview both franchises hope it may be.

In the end, taking those points at home with a Buffalo team that's looking to prove way more here is rather tempting, but questions remain about Buffalo even being a team ready to take that next step. Much easier to sit on the sidelines in that regard here and see how it plays out.

KC might be so frustrated they lost last week – a division game no less – that they look to hang it on someone, and it just so happens to be the Bills and their defense that's giving up 31+/game that's up next.

I do think it is more likely to be close throughout, but the number you get on the spread here as a great chance to actually matter and it's just sticking with the total selection for me.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

OL Mitchell Schwartz: Back - Questionable
RB Le'Veon Bell: Acquired - Out
FB Anthony Sherman: COVID-19 - Out
WR Sammy Watkins: Hamstring - Out
G Kelechi Osemele: Knee - Out

Buffalo

WR John Brown: Knee - Probable
RB Zack Moss: Toe - Probable
CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
G Quinton Spain: Foot - Questionable
LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
TE Dawson Knox: Calf - Out
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Out

[Udog]

Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Life without Dak Prescott officially takes hold for the Dallas Cowboys this week, as Andy Dalton takes this NFC East-leading team into MNF looking to cover their first point spread of the season. An explosive offense with a defense that only knows how to give up explosive plays is clearly not the recipe for point spread success in Dallas, and it will be interesting to see how much of a play-calling change the Cowboys implement knowing this is now Dalton's team.

But helping the Cowboys defense stay off the field as much as possible can go a long way with this team. Dallas still is going to struggle to slow down people on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be this way of allowing 30+ like they have the past four weeks.

Obviously trying to slow down a guy like Kyler Murray and what Arizona brings to the table isn't the best place to start for Dallas, but they've got to start somewhere. The Cardinals enter this game 0-5 O/U this year as they typically don't see both sides score 30+ in a game like the Cowboys have.

You've got a winless ATS team that only knows how to play games with 70+ points scored against a team that's yet to cash an 'over' ticket. What's going to give?

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Arizona Cardinals will be playing their third straight road game on Monday when they meet the Cowboys from Arlington. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Arizona -1.5
Money-Line: Arizona -120, Dallas +100
Total: 55

2020 Betting Stats

Arizona

Overall: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 16)
Defense PPG: 20.4 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 395.4 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 10)

Dallas

Overall: 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Home: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.6 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 36.0 (Rank 32)
Offense YPG: 488.0 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 404.4 (Rank 27)

Handicapping the Total

Arizona's 'under' run is something I would side with getting snapped sooner rather than later, and this does appear to be the no-brainer opponent to look at an Arizona 'over' spot with how bad the Cowboys defense has been.

Yet, you've got to believe that the Dallas defense can't continue to be this inept every week out on the field, and it's just a bunch of other little things that will likely have me passing on this total in the end. I know I wouldn't want any part of the 'under', but it still doesn't feel like the best play to make in this game.

I don't know if Arizona's 0-5 O/U run has much to do with it, or the fact that the Cardinals have the 4th-best third down conversion rate on defense (opponents only convert third downs 35.59% of time vs Arizona) that I think we might be forced to see the Dallas attack slow down as well.

The Cowboys know they can't keep hanging their defense out to dry, and they might already be leaning towards running the ball more with a backup QB in, and one of the best RB's in the game beside him.

With Arizona's defense understanding how to get off the field when they get the chance too, I'm not sure we see this Dallas attack go up and down the field like they have been. Nor do I think Dallas really wants that for their defense to keep getting shredded all the way back.

Recent Cowboys games may not suggest it, but you still need a lot to go smoothly to cash an 'over' 55 ticket, as it's just as fine to pass here.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Sept. 25, 2017 - Dallas 28 at Arizona 17, Cowboys -3, Under 46
Nov. 2, 2014 - Arizona 28 at Dallas 17, Cardinals -1.5, Push 45

Handicapping the Side

The side is the more interesting handicap in that the Cowboys are too talented on offense to remain without an ATS win for long, but how confident can you be trusting them in Andy Dalton's first start? Dalton does have years of starting experience in this league so there is that working for him, but he's got a much different skill set than Prescott, and how to utilize his skills the best is still going to be a work in progress.

From the Arizona side of things, this could be a second ATS win in a row, but it's also their third straight road game. Going from Carolina to New York to Dallas the past three weeks is far from a favorable play-on spot for any team, but again, all we've seen from this Dallas defense this year is them casually retreating down the field as the scoreboard puts up multiples of six on them. There is definitely an argument there for Arizona.

But as road chalk that's seen the line basically move against them all week, I really want nothing to do with Arizona here. In fact, the third straight road game against a team you know is in a great spot to rally around themselves given how their season has gone really turns into an awful spot for the Cardinals when they've also got a division showdown with the Seattle Seahawks on deck.

Dalton may not be the best option, but he's a known commodity at this point in his career. He's also working with more weapons around him than he ever had in Cincinnati, so he's not going to be asked to carry this team, just lead them. That's the better role for him with this Cowboys team right now, and he's just got to take care of the football.

Defensively, I'll put faith in the idea that the Cowboys defense has to improve simply because I don't think they can get any worse. The Cowboys are probably owed a turnover or two for all that's gone wrong in their season so far, as a -8 turnover differential this year is worst in the league and one that should see some positive regression eventually.

Arizona has had at least one turnover in every game so far this season, so it's not like their won't be opportunities for this Cowboys defense to capitalize.

But Dallas as a home dog, when the Cowboys probably deserve at least a little bit of sympathy for what they roller coaster of a season they've already had to deal with is something I don't think I can pass up in this spot. Dalton could easily end up burning more units than he earns in his new gig, but I'll save those fade spots when the Cowboys start laying some significant chalk again down the line after grabbing a few wins.

That winning streak starts for the Cowboys with this game against a road weary Cardinals team that's got a potential lookahead spot up next. Great spot for a home dog to rise up and get this difficult 2020 campaign somewhat back on track.

Key Injuries

Arizona

LB Dennis Gardeck: Foot - Questionable
OT D.J. Humphries: Back - Questionable
LB Devon Kennard: Calf - Questionable
DE Chandler Jones: Biceps - Out
OL J.R. Sweezy: Elbow - Out
LB Kylie Fitts: Hamstring - Out
DT Rashard Lawrence: Calf - Out

Dallas

LB Leighton Vander Esch: Collarbone - Probable
QB Dak Prescott: Ankle - Out
DT Trysten Hill: Knee - Out
T Tyron Smith: Neck - Out

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 6
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Broncos (+7.5, ML +290) at Patriots, 18-12
Falcons (+3.5, ML +170) at Vikings, 40-23
Buccaneers (+2.5, ML +130) vs. Packers, 38-10
49ers (+2.5, ML +110) vs. Rams, 24-16

The largest favorites to cover

Dolphins (-8.5) vs. Jets, 24-0
Titans (-4) vs. Texans, 42-36 (OT)
Lions (-3) at Jaguars, 34-16
Steelers (-3) vs. Browns, 38-7

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in the late afternoon window on Sunday was expected to be one of the two best games of Week 6. The Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers game in the early window was expected to be a good battle, but that turned out to be a dud. The Pack and Bucs was a good battle for about a quarter and a half, and then it went downhill, too.

The Packers fired out to a 10-0 lead after one quarter, and the favorites looked like they were going to be in control. However, Jamel Dean had a pick-six against QB Aaron Rodgers, and the Bucs scored their first touchdown with their defense. Just 100 seconds later, it was Ronald Jones II punching in a 2-yard touchdown, and the home side was up 14-10, and they would not look back. They scored two more touchdowns by halftime, leading 28-10, and the over (55) was looking good, right?

The Bucs posted 10 more points, giving them 38 unanswered points, and over bettors were just seven points shy of a push heading into the final quarter. Unfortunately for over bettors, there were ZERO points in the final quarter. It wasn't quite a bad beat, but over bettors were likely feeling very good after 45 minutes, only to have the carpet whipped out from under their feet.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Houston Texans-Jackonville Jaguars game was a seesaw battle, and Texans (+4) side bettors had to be feeling good when the visitors went ahead 36-29 with 1:50 to go in regulation. However, A.J. Brown reeled in a seven-yard touchdown, and Tennessee elected for the point after rather than the two-point conversion try with four seconds remaining, forcing overtime. Houston moneyline bettors were dejected, but side bettors catching the six were feeling OK. Right?

Well, with 6:30 to go in the extra session, Derrick Henry scored from five yards out, and the touchdown ended things. Instead of a cover, moneyline bettors were holding a losing ticket, and so were side bettors. Ouch.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board on the Sunday slate was the Washington Football Team-New York Giants (42) game, and the bookmakers were close to being right on the nose. The Giants gritted out a 20-19 home victory, their first of the season. A scoreless third quarter tossed over bettors off pace, and despite a total of 16 points in a final quarter flurry, this NFC cellar-dweller battle ended up as an 'under' result. The under is now 4-2 in six games overall for the G-Men, including 2-1 at home. They're averaging just 15.0 PPG in three games at MetLife Stadium.

The highest total on Sunday's board was the aforementioned Packers-Bucs game (see above). The second-highest game was the Atlanta Falcons-Minnesota Vikings (53.5) battle. The Falcons fired out to a 20-0 lead at halftime, and the under was well on pace. The Falcons posted 10 points in each quarter, but over bettors needed the Vikings to show up if they were going to cash. They did, eventually, as the Vikings posted 16 points in the final quarter to inch the total over the finish line with 63 total points.

The only primetime game in Week 6 so far was the Los Angeles Rams-San Francisco 49ers (51) game, and it went well 'under', with just 13 total points in the final 30 minutes. The first-half 'over' did end up hitting with 27 total points. The rescheduled Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills (56) and the Arizona Cardinals-Dallas Cowboys (55) game on Monday promise to give us some doubleheader fireworks, at least if the odds makers are right.

So far this season the over is 8-10 (44.4%) across 18 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 7

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Giants hit the road with a quick turnaround, but at least it's a quick jaunt down to the City of Brotherly Love. They're coming off their first victory of the season, 20-19, over Washington. The Eagles made a valiant comeback, but fell just short against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, 30-28. Philly swept the season series in 2019, winning 23-17 in Philadelphia in overtime on a Monday night game in early December, and they doubled up the G-Men 34-17 in Week 17 in the Meadowlands. They also swept the season series in 2017 and 2018, too. In fact, Philadelphia hasn't lost to the Giants in the past seven meetings, although New York has covered its past three trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Browns were knocked down a peg, falling 38-7 in Pittsburgh on Sunday. They're 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in four games against everyone other than the Ravens and Steelers. Against those two division rivals the Browns are 0-2 SU/ATS, and they're averaging just 6.5 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. They'll play their final road divisional game of the season, and it's a rematch with the Bengals. Cincinnati picked up a backdoor cover in Week 2 in a Thursday game in Cleveland, covering a six-point number in a 35-30 loss. QB Baker Mayfield (ribs) aggravated his rib injury in Pittsburgh, so that will be a situation to watch here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

As mentioned, the Steelers bludgeoned the Browns, and they remain unbeaten. They'll take on the other big kid on the AFC block, as the Titans are also unbeaten. The Steelers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, including a cover in their only road game back in Week 1 against the Giants. After failing to cover in their first three wins, the Titans are 2-0 ATS in the past two while hitting the 'over' in four consecutive contests. Tennessee has scored 31 or more points in four in a row, too. Of course, the Browns had scored 30 or more points in four in a row heading into Week 6, and the Steelers defense completely shut them down, so we'll see what happens.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Buccaners flexed a little muscle against the Packers, winning 38-10 in a bummer of a game. It was great for Tampa, but a bummer for NFL fans who wanted to see a good game between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Bucs are already 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in two games against AFC West teams, including a win and road cover against the Denver Broncos back in Week 3. While the Bucs are 4-2 SU overall, they're just 1-2 SU/ATS in three road contests to date. The Raiders are coming off a bye, resting in Week 6 after their 40-32 road win against the Kansas City Chiefs. In a SNF game back in Week 2, the Raiders pushed past the Saints 34-24 to cover as four-point home 'dogs at Allegiant Stadium, a.k.a. 'The Big Al'. We'll see if they can remain hot on the Strip.

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 7: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and the Rams, who tumbled to the 49ers on Sunday night, are back in prime time next Monday at home against the Bears. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -6.5.

NFL Week 6 is almost a wrap, save for Monday's twinbill, and NFL Week 7 odds are on the betting board and taking action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans meet in a battle of unbeatens, and the Chicago Bears head to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Rams.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 7 odds

These are the current NFL Week 7 odds, as of October 20.



Teams on bye: Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins

Giants at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Philadelphia's comeback fell short in a 30-28 home loss to Baltimore on Sunday, but it impressed the oddsmakers more than New York squeaking out a 20-19 home win over Washington. That said, after opening the Eagles -6.5, The SuperBook ticked down to -6 shortly after posting the line Sunday evening.


Browns at Bengals odds

Opening line
Bengals +3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati was a 7.5-point underdog Sunday at Indianapolis and had an upset in the making, but got outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and lost 31-27. Cleveland wasn't nearly as crisp in its role as a popular 3-point pup at Pittsburgh, where the Browns got boatraced 38-7.

That certainly impacted the Browns-Bengals line at The SuperBook, as 4-2 Cleveland opened -3.5 against 1-4-1 Cincinnati.


Cowboys at Washington odds

Opening line
WFT +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington fell just short at the New York Giants on Sunday, losing 20-19 after a failed 2-point conversion in the waning seconds. Dallas, which is without Dak Prescott (ankle) for the rest of the year, still has Week 6 work to do in the Monday night game against Arizona.

Still, The SuperBook opened the Cowboys -3, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Lions at Falcons odds

Opening line
Falcons -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
In its first game since firing coach Dan Quinn, Atlanta rolled over host Minnesota 40-23, and Detroit had a similarly easy time in a 34-16 win at Jacksonville. The SuperBook opened the Falcons -3, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Panthers at Saints odds

Opening line
Saints -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans is rested up, coming off a bye week, while Carolina was dealt a 23-16 Week 6 home loss as 2-point chalk against Chicago. That prompted The SuperBook to post the Saints as a touchdown-plus favorite for this NFC South clash, and there was no movement Sunday night.


Bills at Jets odds

Opening line
Jets +10.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York continues to make its case for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, losing at Miami 24-0 to fall to 0-6 SU and ATS. Buffalo is 4-1 SU (3-2ATS) and atop the AFC East, though it still has some heavy Week 6 lifting to do, in a 5 p.m. ET Monday clash with visiting Kansas City.


Packers at Texans odds

Opening line
Texans +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Packers opened -3 at The SuperBook, and in the wake of their 38-10 blowout road loss to the Buccaneers, the line didn't move Sunday night.

"Today’s performance may give some bettors pause on taking Green Bay, but I’d still expect to need Houston big at kickoff," Murray said Sunday evening. "It'll probably be one of the biggest decisions of the week."


Seahawks at Cardinals odds

Opening line
Cardinals +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle opened -3 at The SuperBook, with no movement Sunday night.

"The Seahawks are coming off their bye, and it's a short week for Arizona," Murray said, alluding to the Cardinals' Monday night game at Dallas. "Seattle's defense has been very shaky. There should be money both ways, but we will need Arizona."


49ers at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New England opened -4, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the game came off the board Sunday night when the Rams-49ers game kicked off. The game will go back up Monday morning.

"I’ll be interested to see how the public plays this game, after the New England performance today," Murray said Sunday evening, noting the Patriots' pathetic performance in an 18-12 home loss to Denver as 7-point favorites.


Chiefs at Broncos odds

Opening line
Broncos +8.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver is coming off a stunning 18-12 victory at New England, but all 18 points came on field goals, which surely won't hold up against the explosive Kansas City offense. The Chiefs still have their Week 6 game Monday at Buffalo, but The SuperBook pegged K.C. 8.5-point road chalk in this Week 7 AFC West matchup.


Buccaneers at Raiders odds

Opening line
Raiders +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay opened -2.5 on the road, and there was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook. But there'll be no shortage of cash flying on this Sunday Night Football contest.

"This will be a huge-volume game," Murray said. "The Bucs' D looked awesome today (vs. Packers), but there should be a lot of support for the Raiders, especially in this market. The Raiders are off a huge win (at Chiefs) and a bye week. The Bucs are very popular this year, but the Raiders will see a lot of support, too."


Bears at Rams odds

Opening line
Rams -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no early movement at The SuperBook off the opener of Los Angeles -6.5, and this game came off the board when the Rams-49ers game kicked off Sunday night. Bears-Rams will go back up Monday morning.

"The Bears don’t get any respect, but they just keep winning," Murray said of the NFC North leaders, who are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) heading into the Week 7 Monday nighter. "There will be moneyline bets on the Bears. It’s a long way off, but I’m guessing we will want the Rams to win but not cover at kickoff."


Steelers at Titans odds

Opening line
Titans +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Steelers -1 and are now up to -2.5," Murray said of a big Sunday night move at The SuperBook. "The Titans just keep winning, but haven’t gotten much respect in the betting market. We will definitely need them here."


Jaguars at Chargers odds

Opening line
Chargers -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Chargers, coming off their bye, are 1-4 SU, and the Jaguars are 1-5 SU. But Los Angeles has played well and is in pretty much every game, as evidenced by its 4-1 ATS mark, while Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS. So The SuperBook pegged the Bolts 9.5-point favorites Sunday night, and bettors didn't dispute it, as there was no early movement.

[Udog]

NFL betting tips for Week 7: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Aaron Rodgers' revenge tour rolls into Houston coming off an embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay last Sunday. Since Rodgers took over QB duties in 2008, the Cheeseheads are 39-29-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Holy crap, we’re almost at the midway mark of the 2020 NFL season. By this point in the schedule, the NFL betting intel is growing richer by the snap and oddsmakers have a much deeper understanding of what makes teams tick.

Because of that you need a sure-fire NFL betting strategy: get the best number for your bet.

Locking in the best spread or total for your opinion is the only way to beat the bookies, so we share our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and which ones to bet later in NFL Week 7.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans: Bet Now

Boy I feel sorry for the Texans. After Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed in Tampa Bay this past weekend, Green Bay’s redemption tour rolls into Houston to take on a 1-5 home team. Books opened the Cheeseheads as field-goal favorites for this 1 p.m. ET Week 7 kickoff and it won’t be sticking around long.

The Texans just gave up 36 points in regulation to the Titans and have allowed four of their six opponents to crack the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard (Pittsburgh could only muster 28 points… pffffft!). While the offense does seem to be figuring something out since shedding the stink of Bill O’Brien’s play calling, it's walking into a shootout Sunday afternoon.

Since Rodgers took over as the No. 1 gunslinger in Green Bay (2008), the Packers have posted a 39-29-1 ATS mark (57 percent) coming off a loss. Yes, Sunday’s defeat to the Bucs was a bad one but it’s only giving us extra value on this short spread. Also, the Pack are back indoors Sunday, where they’ve averaged 38 points per game this season. I wonder if they've ever considered putting a roof on Lambeau? Nahhhhhhh.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+1.5): Bet Later

The Titans don’t get any respect. Maybe it’s sour grapes from their whole COVID-19 outbreak. Maybe it’s the bad taste leftover from Ryan Tannehill’s days in Miami. Whatever the case, Tennessee is catching the points at home hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 7 battle of undefeated teams.

There’s enough on either side of this spread to make a case for Pittsburgh or Tennessee, but if you are siding with the home team, you may want to wait this one out and see how many extra points you can grab before clicking submit on the Titans.

This line opened as low as Steelers -1 and is out there as high as -2. Tennessee needed a last-second drive to force overtime and secure the win versus Houston at home (albeit playing its second game in six days) but Pittsburgh’s convincing win over Cleveland will puff this one up – especially with the Steelers boasting a surplus of public support each and every week.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51): Bet Now

It’s the 2020 NFL season soooooo… you get a 50-point total! And you get a 50-point total! And YOU get a 50-point total! With scoring still at a record pace, oddsmakers are stuffing as much cushion as they can into these weekly totals until the universe balances itself out.

The Panthers-Saints Week 7 showdown opened with the total at 51 points and while there hasn’t been a hint of movement in the first few hours of action, I believe this is headed downward. The Saints have had a bye week to study up and tighten the bolts on a defense that still ranks sixth in DVOA at Football Outsiders. And while there’s a slim hope that Carolina will return RB Christian McCaffrey (most likely Week 8), the Panthers offense has slowed down after a fiery start to the season with efforts of 23 and 16 points the past two games.

Another thing to consider is how well New Orleans knows not only Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater (played for the Saints for two seasons) but also Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady (Saints offensive assistant for two years), who pretty much ripped pages out of the New Orleans playbook for his tenure at LSU and is running similar systems in Charlotte this year. If you’re on board with the Under, you'll want to get it sooner rather than later.


Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Under 56.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under opened as low as 55.5 at one select sportsbook and lasted less than a half-hour before action tacked on another point and the rest of the industry posted 56.5 for Lions at Falcons. And why not? Both teams love to score and hate to defend, ranked 28th and 30th in defensive DVOA (heading into Week 6).

But if you're zigging when everyone else is zagging on this total, wait and see how much higher the number climbs before jumping in on the Under. Detroit and Atlanta are each coming off an offensive outpouring in Week 6, with the Lions laying 34 points on the Jaguars and the Falcons flipping the Vikings for 40 points. That recency bias has built this lofty number.

We’ve seen these groups fall flat on their face at times this season. Atlanta scored just 16 points in back-to-back outings before Sunday’s explosion, and Detroit hadn’t cracked 30 points until this weekend’s run-in with lowly Jacksonville. These teams have faced some tall totals in past meetings and have gone just 2-4 O/U in their last six head-to-head encounters.