NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thur., Oct. 8 - Monday, Oct. 12)

[Udog]

Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday’s upset of Dallas and could be out six weeks. This week’s game against the Colts opened at pick, but the Browns dropped to 2.5-point home underdogs Monday at The SuperBook at Westgate. The total also ticked down a notch, from 48 to 47.5.

New York Jets: Sam Darnold (shoulder) is uncertain for Sunday’s home game against Arizona. Interestingly, though, the Jets moved from +7.5 to +6.5 Monday at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers: Running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring) is expected to go on injured reserve and miss several weeks. But the first move in the line for L.A.’s Monday nighter at New Orleans was toward the Chargers, from +8 to +7.5, and the total was stable at 52.

[Udog]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 5
Micah Roberts

Sharps leaning to QB Change

Second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins just played his best statistical game last week in the Washington’s 31-17 home loss to the Ravens, but head coach Ron Rivera felt it was time for a change after their third straight loss and backup Kyle Allen will start Sunday as the Rams visit.

Sharp money appears to be fired up about the QB change as they’ve been betting the Washington’s at Nevada sportsbooks at all numbers from as high as +9.5 all the way down to where it sat on Friday afternoon at Rams -7.

Perhaps the bet is simply against the Rams (3-1) who make their third road game to the East Coast time zone. They won 37-19 at Philadelphia in Week 2 and lost a week later 35-32 at Buffalo. The Rams also gave us a sneak preview to how bad the Cowboys would be in Week 1 with the Rams 20-17 win a cover. Last week they struggled to put the kill move on the Giants winning 17-9 but failing to cover 13.5-points.

Whatever the reason, Washington is the top sharp move of the week. So let’s get acquainted with Allen again, but first, let’s look at Haskins career-best day form last week against the Ravens quality defense. He was 32-of-42 (71.1%) for 314 yards, no touchdowns, but no picks. His 90.4 rating was the best of his young career as well. But they didn’t win. Rivera is sending a message not only to Haskins but the entire team. Maybe the team got the message and play better this week.

Déjà Vu for Allen?

Allen is known very well by Rivera because it’s the same coach who gave him his first career start at Carolina in 2018. He also started Allen over Cam Newton last season beginning in Week 3 and Allen lit it up with four TD passes, and no picks on 19-of-26 passing in a 38-20 win over the Cardinals. Allen would lead the Panthers to four straight wins totaling seven TD passes and no picks. Rivera was a genius, and when Newton would be healthy enough to start again wasn’t even a question anymore.

The Panthers had their QB of the future. But then the wheel fell off when he threw three picks in a 51-13 loss at San Francisco. He’d beat Marcus Mariota and the Titans the following week, but then would lose his next seven starts and Rivera would bench him before Week 14. And Rivera would get fired after the season.

Houston, you still have a Problem

The next most bet game by the sharps around Nevada is another shake-up game, but they’re taking the opposite side. The Houston Texans fired head coach and GM Bill O’Brien and gave the interim coaching job to defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel. The 0-4 Texans (0-4 ATS) opened the week as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Jaguars (1-3), and they absolutely love the Jaguars in this spot to as low as -5 at Circa Sports.

The selling point on the Jaguars isn’t because the road team has gone 13-4-1 against the spread in their last 18 meetings. It could be that the Texans are rated much lower than many oddsmakers have them rated. It could be that Jacksonville has a more efficient QB.

Texans signal caller Deshaun Watson has been sacked 16 times, more than any other QB and more than half of those are his fault. He runs into sacks better than anyone. Watson could use some help as the trade for a third-string running back (David Johnson) for the best wide receiver (DeAndre Hopkins) isn’t working out well. The Jaguars play this week makes sense for more than one reason.

Backing the Browns

The third most popular sharp play this week is the Browns at home against the Colts and their No. 1 defense in a nice matchup of two 3-1 teams. The SuperBook opened the Colts -2.5 and the number has fallen all the way down to pick ‘em at William Hill sportsbooks.

After a surprising Week 1 loss at Jacksonville, the Colts have won and covered their last three with all three games staying the under the total.

They have imposed their will on the Vikings, Jets, and Bears, which isn’t exactly a scary gauntlet.

The Browns kind of have the same story, except it’s their offense that has taken off with the league’s No. 1 running game, averaging 204 yards per game.

Cleveland started off Week 1 with a disappointing 38-6 loss at Baltimore, but it has won its last three (all three games went over) by scoring at least 34 points and have covered the spread in the last two. The wins were against the Bengals, Washington, and the Cowboys, three teams likely not to make the playoffs.

Lone Star Fade

Speaking of the Cowboys, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews says he had respected money bet the Giants at +9.5 which has dropped the Cowboys down to -8.5. The Giants No. 32 ranked offense has looked awful through four games but the Cowboys No. 30 ranked defense has made every offense look good. And for whatever it’s worth, even though the winless Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings versus the Cowboys, they’re 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.

Public leaning KC -- again!

BetMGM’s Jason Scott says their biggest risk so far is the Chiefs to cover -12, a number that was once at -13.5 at a few books but is down to a low of -11.5 at Circa Sports. The Chiefs are their biggest risk because of parlays and teasers mixed in with straight bets. It’s not necessarily a sharp play, but the public risk is mounting.

The top teasers plays this week will be the Chiefs, Rams and Cowboys, along with these matchups.

Top Teaser Consensus Teams

Cardinals (-7 at Jets)
Steelers (-7 vs. Eagles)
Ravens (-13 vs. Bengals)
Cowboys, Seahawks (-7 vs. Vikings) - SNF
Saints (-7.5 vs. Chargers) - MNF

Those are the biggest favorites of the week, majority at home, and the logic of the teaser is to take a moderate favorite to just win, or crossover key numbers getting below 7 or 3.

Andrews says their biggest public plays this week are the Chiefs, Rams, and Steelers.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick says their top public plays are the Seahawks, Steelers, and Rams.

That’s it for now, have a great weekend.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Seattle
-- The Seahawks are 10-0-1 ATS (5.45 ppg) since Oct 14, 2018 coming off a game where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Atlanta
-- The Falcons are 0-10 ATS (-8.90 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Atlanta
-- Teams are 8-0 ATS (11.00 ppg) since Dec 07, 2014 coming off a home win where Teddy Bridgewater completed at least 60% of his passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Seattle
-- The Vikings are 0-11 OU (-11.45 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 coming off a road game where they scored more than 28 points.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Dallas
-- The Cowboys are 14-0-1 OU (12.07 ppg) since Sep 30, 2018 coming off a game where they had less than 30 minutes time of possession.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at Kansas City
-- The Chiefs are 0-16-2 OU (-11.89 ppg) at home facing a team allowing at least 27 points per game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Udog]

Vikings vs. Seahawks Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Fresh off their first win of the 2020 season, the Minnesota Vikings head out West to take on the yet-to-be defeated Seattle Seahawks.

Minnesota's been here each of the past two seasons and lost straight up and against the spread both times, but this year's atmosphere there is nothing like what the Vikings had to deal with in the past and hopefully that's something Vikings fans can successfully hang their hat on this week.

That's because they've still got to find a way to slow down quarterback Russell Wilson, who's already one of the front-runners for the Most Valuable Player award this season.

Seattle's scored at least 30 points in all four games, have gone 4-0 ATS as well, and yet have been outgained in yards in three of the four wins, and haven't won any of their past three by more than eight points. That's the Russell Wilson effect.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

The Vikings are coming off their first win of the season as Minnesota heads west to battle Seattle. (AP)

Line Movements

So it won't be easy for the Vikings in the slightest, but Seattle has allowed 30 or more in two of those past three wins, and if the Dolphins didn't keep settling for short field goals last week it likely would have been three in a row.

So no recent wins by more than eight points, routinely breaking even (or worse) in the total yardage battle, 4-0 ATS and opening up as a -9 favorite for this game.

Have we reached the point where Seattle's prices are too steep to be playing with? Early bettors certainly thought so with this point spread now sitting at just a single touchdown.

Spread: Seattle -7
Money-Line: Seattle -335, Minnesota +265
Total: 57

2020 Betting Stats

Minnesota

Overall: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.5 (Rank T-14)
Defense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 26)

Seattle

Overall: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 35.5 (Rank 2)
Defense PPG: 27.3 (Rank 21)

Handicapping the Total

Through four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks already have plenty of signs that suggest they are what they appear to be: a team that scores 30 and gives up nearly that.

Eventually that should change – it's got to on defense if Seattle wants to keep winning, and how long can Wilson keep playing like this on offense – so it's all about trying to figure out if we've hit the peak or not with these Seattle totals. This number had some early 'under' love to it already as well when it was a shade or two higher.

Last year's game was a 37-30 win for Seattle, while 2018's contest went 21-7 in favor of the Seahawks, so we've seen these teams play out on both ends of the total spectrum.

Still not entirely sure Minnesota's offense is as good as it's looked in terms of having three of four games scoring in the 30's, and a 1-3 SU record despite that speaks to what the defense has done this year.

There is no way a defensive guy like Zimmer is happy with that, but how confident can you be expecting it to change against Russell Wilson. I guess facing Deshaun Watson last week was beneficial in terms of prepping for similarities, but the Vikings defense still nearly coughed up that game in the 2nd half.

Utilizing Dalvin Cook and the running game to keep Russell Wilson and their own defense off the field is something I expect to see from the Vikings in this one, and with a general belief that league-wide scoring is nearing its peak, following that early move and looking 'under' is the only way I'd go here.

Minnesota is on a 7-17 O/U run as an underdog, and probably aren't as comfortable in a gunslinger's game where they are on the side of Kirk Cousins in the Cousins vs Wilson battle.

Seattle knows things have to tighten up on defense to sustain this positioning in the standings, and it's not like the Vikings offense isn't known to shoot itself in the foot at times.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 2, 2019 - Seattle 37 vs. Minnesota 30, Seahawks -2.5, Over 48
Dec. 10, 2018 - Seattle 21 vs. Minnesota 7, Seahawks -3, Under 45

Handicapping the Side

Similar to last week's play on the Eagles and the points versus San Francisco, I'm not sure this week's NFC West side involved in SNF is really worth the line that's attached to their name.

A record of 4-0 both SU and ATS definitely jumps off the page, but they aren't blowing away teams and could just be in the middle of riding the ultimate heater their QB is on. Four weeks may or may not be too early to tell for sure, but I've got no interest in being on the chalky side of that proposition while I try to find out.

Remember, it's the 4-0 SU and ATS that jumps out, so no matter what, the Vikings are looking at this as a litmus test game for them and they really can't afford too many failures on that front after starting 1-3 SU.

Yes, it's Wilson, but they've also been in this exact position the past two years – on the road, in Seattle – and that's not a bad thing. Less noise is only going to help with the signals on both sides of the ball, and to have as much self scouting film on what has worked and what hasn't on Wilson in the past 24 months as they do – where he's been nearly as great – is invaluable as well.

Trusting the Vikings to execute on a high level is another ask, but there is plenty of wiggle room for a few errors there with this number being what it is. Remember, Seattle's defense is still trying to find any resemblance of their best selves, and a typical 2020 game for the Seahawks defense combined with a rough start for Wilson and the offense should end up in a Vikings outright win.

Those who aren't risk averse may want to go that route, but I'll stay a little more conservative instead.

Key Injuries

Minnesota

CB Kris Boyd: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Holton Hill: Foot - Questionable
WR K.J. Osborn: Hamstring - Out
WR Tajae Sharpe: Illness - Questionable
LB Troy Dye: Foot - Out
LB Anthony Barr: Pectoral - Out

Seattle

G Mike Iupati: Knee - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Hip - Questionable
RB Carlos Hyde: Shoulder - Questionable
S Delano Hill: Back - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Questionable
LB Jordyn Brooks: Knee - Questionable
S Jamal Adams: Groin - Out

[Udog]

[Udog]

Chargers vs. Saints Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the second consecutive week, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves out on the road in NFC South country, and if they've got another chance to knock off a future HOF quarterback again, hopefully, they'll know how to finish this time.

The Chargers had QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers down big late in that 1st half last week before blunders started the spiral of momentum against them, and Tampa took full advantage in the final 30 minutes. Mistakes like that can happen for younger teams like the Chargers are, but the Saints have not looked invincible by any means this year.

Yet, the problem for Chargers fans/backers has to be that any time we get Drew Brees on MNF these days, he's usually out there breaking some long-standing QB record. I'm not sure there are any within reach this time, but the Saints have been a reliable team to back in recent MNF games as some memorable moments for Brees are behind them.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert makes his fourth straight start as the Chargers take on the Saints. (AP)

Line Movements

But Saints fans have to fear that all of the great moments Brees has had in his career are currently behind him, as there are serious questions about his ability to be that guy to lead this team on another deep run this year.

New Orleans was hoping to have wide receiver Michael Thomas available to help give Brees a more reliable option to work with on offense but the below "Tweet" from Adam Schefter sums up the priorities for the All-Pro.

With or without Thomas, the Saints still have trouble stopping teams too – Saints give up an average of 30.8 points per game – and if Brees is amid a severe decline, how long can you expect to have him keep winning games 35-30?

New Orleans might not have to worry so much with this specific opponent about those deficiencies, but they'll still be around regardless. They are a big part of the question this week regarding whether the Saints will cover this number.

Spread: New Orleans -7
Money-Line: New Orleans -310, L.A. Chargers +260
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

L.A. Chargers

Overall: 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 20.8 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 23.8 (Rank 11)

New Orleans

Overall: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Home: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.8 (Rank T-5)
Defense PPG: 30.8 (Rank 25)

Handicapping the Total

This game is not one I was particularly fond of for the entire week this week as there are cases to be made each way. In terms of the total, Saints at home in prime time appearances have lit up the scoreboard in the past, and we just saw another 40+, the future HOF QB put up 5 TD's on this Chargers defense last week. But Brady's been trying to re-teach himself to look deep then short this year in his progressions when all Brees tends to look and throw short.

Alternatively, can you trust this Chargers offense to put up 30+ point efforts in consecutive weeks after failing to score more than 20 in their first three games of the season? Yes, the Saints defense is bad and can help LA along in that regard, but it's still rookie QB Justin Herbert's second career road start, in a tough travel spot (whether they went to and from LA between games or not), and off a game where they coughed up what would have been a huge win.

The Chargers being completely flat and/or overmatched early is also a possible outcome to thing about here, and asking them to pull their weight for a total in the ‘50s may be a bit much.

I'm more inclined to think that the Chargers offense is likely to come back down to earth a bit, as well as the Saints defense at least “looking” better against an inferior opponent. I do also think this Chargers defense is more likely to bounce back off that rough outing and look more like the team that held the Bengals, Chiefs, and Panthers to 12, 23, and 21 points, respectively, as they did in their first three games.

I believe that Brees has hit that career cliff where talent tends to nosedive, so asking him to keep putting up 30 points a game on long, dink-and-dunk drives just isn't going to keep working out. New Orleans is 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF, but they are also on a 4-11 O/U run against a losing team. It's the last run that I side with for this one.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 2, 2016 - New Orleans 35 at L.A. Chargers 34, Saints +3.5, Over 54
Oct. 7, 2012 - New Orleans 31 vs. San Diego 24, Saints -3.5, Over 52.5

Handicapping the Side

Believing the end is here for Brees also means that I want no part of him laying anything that much more than a FG based on the matchup, and this is one of those games where it's between fading the Saints or passing on the side.

Even if I'm completely wrong about Brees being smack dab right in the middle of the end, and he still goes out there and lights things up, New Orleans still has a defense that gives up 30 points per game. Even if they do look better, you're always asking them to potentially keep the back door shut as well from an ATS standpoint late in the game. Even if they declared they wanted too, I'm not sure the Saints defense could stop a garbage time TD drive against more times than not, and that's a situation that bettors still may have to sweat out after watching Brees and the Saints offense be at their best.

Anything less than that (far more likely), from Brees and company, and this spread is far too lofty a price on the Saints for me even to consider.

Yet, I'm not thrilled to be having the Chargers in this game either, as back-to-back non-conference road spots tend to be hard for a young team to come away with back-to-back ATS wins. And if it's the Chargers who have a dud of a game, even an average Brees and company win this game by double digits comfortably.

The Chargers are on a 33-15-4 ATS run as an organization when listed as a road underdog, but they are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four MNF appearances. Again, cases to be made for both sides, and it's just safer to pass.

Key Injuries

L.A. Chargers

QB Tyrod Taylor: Lung - Questionable
WR Mike Williams: Hamstring - Questionable
G Trai Turner: Groin - Questionable
T Storm Norton: Knee - Questionable
T Bryan Bulaga: Back - Questionable
RB Austin Ekeler: Hamstring - Out

New Orleans

WR Michael Thomas: Discipline - Out
T Ryan Ramczyk: Concussion - Questionable
T Andrus Peat: Ankle - Questionable
CB Marshon Lattimore: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Janoris Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
TE Jared Cook: Ankle - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Out

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Raiders (+10.5, ML +575) at Chiefs, 40-32
Dolphins (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 43-17
Bears (+3.5, ML +170) vs. Buccaneers, 20-19
Panthers (+2.5, ML +110) at Falcons, 23-16

The largest favorites to cover

Ravens (-12.5) vs. Bengals, 27-3
Steelers (-7.5) vs. Eagles, 38-29
Cardinals (-7) at Jets, 30-10
Rams (-7) at Washington, 30-10
Texans (-6.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks game on Sunday Night Football was a strange game. For bettors, it was a roller coaster ride full of emotions, good or bad depending on which side of the line or total you were on.

The Vikings (+7) opened up a 13-0 lead at halftime, and moneyline bettors (+263) and 'under' (54) were both feeling really good about themselves. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said something super inspiring at halftime, because the Seahawks came on out the break on fire. They scored 21 unanswered points in a span of 113 seconds, opening up a 21-13 lead at the midway point of the third quarter. Suddenly, under bettors weren't feeling very good, Minnesota moneyline bettors and side bettors were feeling awful, and the Seahawks were covering for the first time all evening.

The good feeling for Seattle side bettors was short-lived, though. While the struggles of Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in primetime games is well documented, he had a pretty good evening, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He needed to pick up his play, too, as oft-injured star RB Dalvin Cook went down with a groin injury in the third quarter and was unable to return. That was one of the biggest injuries in all of Week 5, but not THE biggest (see below). Anyway, it's uncertain how long Cook will be sidelined.

The Vikings answered back with 13 unanswered points of their own, taking a 26-21 lead. Then, late in the fourth quarter, head coach Mike Zimmer made a quizzical move. Rather than kicking a field goal, inside the red zone on a 4th and 1, he elected to go for it. Mind you, Cook, their backfield hammer was sidelined. And to be fair, RB Alexander Mattison filled in admirably, even hitting triple digits in a reserve role. But the Vikings were stuffed trying to run it, rather than make it an eight-point game.

The Seahawks have MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson under center, and he calmly and coolly led the team down the field. With 15 seconds remaining, Wilson hit WR DK Metcalf in the right corner of the end zone for a touchdown, as Seattle took a 27-26 lead. For Vikings moneyline bettors, their heart was broken, and it was like losing a second time, after they blew a big lead earlier. For over bettors, they sat on the edge of their seats during the two-point conversion. It didn't happen, though, and wasn't even close. The Vikings never really threatened when they got the ball back with 15 seconds, and under bettors all cashed, regardless if they bet the number early in the week in the high 50's, or at the close of 54. All under tickets were winners.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board among the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (44) game. This Keystone State battle ended up being a wild affair featuring plenty of scoring. Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool became just the third rookie in NFL history to record four touchdowns in a single game, scoring all but one of the home team's touchdowns. This game saw each team score at least seven points in every quarter, totaling 67 in all. With the exception of the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (52) game, the Eagles-Steelers was the highest-scoring game on Sunday.

The highest total on Sunday's board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (54.5) game. The Texans made a change at the top spot, firing Bill O'Brien after last week's disappointing loss to the Vikings. The Texans looked like a brand new team under interim head coach Romeo Crennel, firing off a 30-14 victory as the 'under' connected. The two teams played a scoreless first quarter, one of just two scoreless quarters either on Thursday or Sunday in NFL Week 5. Believe it or not, the Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs game (54.5) featured the other one. The Raiders fired off a 40-32 win, so it was rather surprising that one of the quarters saw zero total points. Of course, the game-total over and first-half over was helped out by 38 total points in a wild second quarter.

The two primetime games in Week 5 saw the 'under' connect in both. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (44) game saw just 39 total points thanks to 12 total points in the final 30 minutes. At least first-half total (22.5) bettors hit the over with 27 points. We already covered the SNF game, which also went under, with the Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (50) game still to be played. Technically the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (53) game, scheduled for Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET is also going to be in primetime now.

So far this season the over is 6-9 (40.0%) across 15 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Injury Report

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys quarterback was having an MVP caliber season heading into Week 5. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 or more yards in three consecutive games last week. In Sunday's game, he was making headlines for another reason. He suffered a major right ankle injury, and there were reports the bone poked through the skin. He was taken immediately to a hospital and has already underwent successful surgery to repair a dislocation and fracture. It sounds like he'll miss a significant amount of time, and QB Andy Dalton will not take over as the signal caller. The former Bengals QB led the team to a comeback win against the New York Giants, 34-31, but it will be interesting to see if there is a stark drop-off on offense. The Cowboys are +3500 in the future odds to win the Super Bowl, as of Monday morning.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bears and Panthers opened with the lowest total on the Week 6 board at 44 points. Chicago hits the road for the second time this season where they have seen the 'over' connect in both outings, going 2-0 SU/ATS while averaging 28.5 points per game. They have allowed 24.5 PPG in those two outings. The Panthers head into this one on a three-game heater, including a 31-21 win and cover as three-point 'dogs in their most recent home game. The 'under' has hit in their past three outings, going 3-0 SU/ATS. They're averaging 25.0 PPG on offense during their three-game win streak, but allowing just 17.7 PPG.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Browns are on their first four-game winning streak since 2009, and they're 4-1 for the first time since the 1994, and they are 3-0 at home to start a season for the first time since 2004. And they scored 32 points in their nine-point win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, giving them 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. All of that scoring will be necessary if they want to cool of the equally hot Steelers, who have fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS start, including 'over' results in each of the past three. The Browns are on a 4-0 'over' run.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The 49ers were drummed at home by a 43-17 score against the Miami Dolphins of all teams, slipping as eight-point favorites for the second consecutive week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury, but was lifted at halftime with the team facing a 30-7 deficit. QB C.J. Beathard finished up, and at least led the team to 10 points. It appears there might be a quarterback controversy brewing in Frisco, or at least a situation worth watching very, very closely. The Rams improved to 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS with a 30-10 road win over Washington, and they might be a perfect 5-0 if not for a phantom DPI against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. The Rams hit the under for the first time in three road games in Week 5. L.A. is allowing just 9.5 PPG over the past two games, and they have yielded 19 or fewer points in four of their five outings.

Arizona Cowboys at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys will take on the 'new-look' Cowboys, as Dalton makes his first start on Monday night. At least he gets one more day to get prepared for his first starting assignment. Dallas enters this game 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS overall, and they have hit the 'over' in four straight outings. Dallas has registered 31 or more points in four straight while giving up 34 or more during the same span. It will be interesting to see if Dalton can keep up the good production on offense. He has GIANT shoes to fill. The Cardinals got well on the road against the hapless Jets, 30-10, and the Cardinals remained the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of its first five games.

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 6: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen and the Bills stand atop the AFC East at 4-0 SU (3-1 SU), but they've got a tough Week 6 challenge against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City a 3-point road favorite.

There are still two NFL Week 5 games on the docket, but NFL Week 6 odds are on the betting board and already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Buffalo Bills, and the Dallas Cowboys – minus injured QB Dak Prescott – host the Arizona Cardinals.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 6 odds

These are the current NFL Week 6 odds, as of October 11.



Teams on bye: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints

Chiefs at Bills odds

Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This matchup was supposed to be the Week 6 Thursday night game. However, it was moved to next Monday, because the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans on Tuesday night, in a game delayed due to Tennessee's COVID situation. The SuperBook moved forward with posting the Chiefs-Bills line, making Kansas City -3 in the wake of its stunning home loss to the Raiders.

"Outside of their destruction of the Ravens a couple weeks ago, the Chiefs have looked very vulnerable," Murray said. "We haven’t moved off the opener here. I think people are hesitant to weigh in on this game, with so many question marks."

Bears at Panthers odds

Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Carolina nabbed a 23-16 win at Atlanta on Sunday, while Chicago claimed a 20-19 Thursday night home win over Tampa Bay. The SuperBook opened the Panthers -3, and the first move was toward the Bears, as the line ticked to Carolina -2.5 Sunday night.

Lions at Jaguars odds

Opening line
Jaguars +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Jaguars got dumped on the road 30-14 Sunday by the previously winless Texans, while the Lions are coming off their bye week. That was enough for The SuperBook to open Detroit 3-point road chalk, and although the number didn't move, the Lions' price at -3 ticked up to -120.

Falcons at Vikings odds

Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Atlanta finally fired coach Dan Quinn, after Sunday's 23-16 home loss to Carolina left the Falcons at 0-5. Minnesota, meanwhile, gave unbeaten Seattle all it could handle and probably should've won the game, if not for a questionable late decision by coach Mike Zimmer. Instead, the Vikings lost 27-26.

Still, the Vikings are not in Atlanta-like disarray, so The SuperBook opened Minnesota -3.5. Per standard procedure, the line came off the board once the Vikes kicked off at Seattle, and this game will go back up Monday morning.

Texans at Titans odds

Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
The Titans are still trying to battle through their COVID-19 issues, and if all goes well, they'll host the Bills on Tuesday night. So the Texans-Titans line won't hit the board until after the Bills-Titans game.

Washington at Giants odds

Opening line
Giants -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Giants, who nearly pulled off an upset at Dallas on Sunday, opened -3.5 against Washington, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Browns at Steelers odds

Opening line
Steelers -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The unbeaten Steelers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) opened -4.5 Sunday evening at The SuperBook. However, the game came off the board soon afterward, due to the uncertain status of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.

"We closed this one when it looked like Mayfield (was hurt) late in the win over the Colts," Murray said, alluding to a rib injury that the QB said wouldn't sideline him this week. "Both teams have been impressive. Look for good two-way write here."

Ravens at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles +7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Ravens had no trouble with the Bengals on Sunday, while the Eagles gave the Steelers a good go but fell short. The SuperBook opened Baltimore -7 Sunday evening and moved to -7.5 shortly thereafter.

"Philly looked frisky today in Pittsburgh, but that won’t deter the public," Murray said. "We will need the Eagles again next Sunday."

Bengals at Colts odds

Opening line
Colts -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis fell to Cleveland 32-23, but that was more respectable than Cincinnati's 27-3 loss to Baltimore, so The SuperBook opened the Colts nearly double-digit favorites. There was no line movement Sunday night.

Jets at Dolphins odds

Opening line
Dolphins -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami posted an impressive 43-17 road beatdown of defending NFC champion San Francisco, so the Dolphins opened -8 against the hapless Jets. There was no line movement Sunday night.

Broncos at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game was supposed to take place in Week 5, first on Sunday, then on Monday. But COVID issues in New England booted the matchup to Week 6 Sunday. It's unclear whether Cam Newton will be cleared to start in the aftermath of his COVID diagnosis. The SuperBook opened the Patriots -9.5, and the first move was a full point toward Denver, with New England dipping to -8.5.

Packers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay is coming off a bye, while Tampa Bay was dealt a Week 5 Thursday night loss at Chicago. The SuperBook opened the Packers -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday evening.

"I'd expect the public to abandon the Bucs in a hurry after that loss to the Bears," Murray said. "The Packers have been coming through for the public all season. We will need the Bucs."

Rams at 49ers odds

Opening line
49ers +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened the Rams 3-point road favorites against the defending NFC champion 49ers, who are struggling at 2-3 SU and ATS after getting boatraced by visiting Miam, 43-17.

"The Rams are quietly 4–1, and the 49ers are a mess. If anything, that score today was misleading. Miami dominated them even worse than the score indicated," Murray said. "It’s really hard to handicap the 49ers right now. So many question marks. The public will be happy to lay the Rams here. This game may close even higher, given the schedule spot on Sunday night."

Cardinals at Cowboys odds

Opening line
Cowboys +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas suffered a huge loss during Sunday's 37-34 victory over the Giants, as Dak Prescott broke and dislocated his right ankle, ending his season. With the Cowboys undermanned, The SuperBook opened Arizona a 3-point road favorite, with the first move to Arizona -2.5.

"No Dak, and the injuries are starting to pile up for Dallas," Murray said. "The public has been in love with the Cardinals for weeks. It will be weird needing Dallas as a home 'dog to Arizona in this game, but that will likely be our position next Monday night."

With a healthy Prescott, Murray said the Cowboys would've opened a short favorite against the Cardinals.

[Udog]

NFL betting tips for Week 6: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are a combined 7-2 Over/Under to start the 2020 NFL season and meet in Week 6 with a Over/Under total of 50 points.

Planning ahead has been tough to do in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving a lot up in the air. That’s been the case for the NFL season the past few weeks, with the schedule shaken up in reaction to coronavirus outbreaks.

But even with plenty of unknowns, you want to stay ahead of the action with the sharpest NFL betting strategy. And that means getting the best numbers now or waiting for the market to move in your favor.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the Week 6 odds to bet now and bet later.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet now

It didn’t take long for this line to start moving away from the Bucs after their bumbling loss in Chicago on Thursday. Tampa Bay opened strong, holding a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the Bears defense found its claws. Chicago wouldn’t allow a single point more and the Bears beleaguered offense would do just enough to get the 20-13 victory.

The Packers enjoyed a bye in Week 5 but return to action with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark entering this road stop in Florida. Aaron Rodgers is hoping to have top target Davante Adams back after missing two games (hamstring) and the Green Bay rushing attack continues to chew up the turf behind RB Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers do get that mini bye to lick their many wounds and should have some bodies back on offense. However, the defense lost its linchpin in veteran DL Vita Vea (broken leg) for the season.

This spread opened as big as Bucs -2.5 on Saturday at select books and was quickly steamed over the fence to Packers -1.5. Once the betting public starts looking at Week 6 odds Monday morning, there could be more movement toward the Cheeseheads, so get them as low as you can right now.


Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Bet later

Dak Prescott’s ankle injury was as gruesome as it was deflating. The Cowboys captain will be out for the remainder of the season, leaving quarterback duties in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Losing Dak is bad but not devastating to the Dallas offense due to the surplus of skill players around Dalton (who’s a pretty solid option at No. 2).

The Cowboys try to move forward after Sunday’s sour win over the Giants when Arizona comes to AT&T Stadium. The Cardinals snuffed a two-game slide by chewing up a cupcake in the New York Jets Sunday and play their third straight road game in Dallas in Week 6. Arizona's defense may be without pass rush specialist Chandler Jones (biceps) for an extended period of time.

This spread hit the board as high as Cowboys +3, but most books are dealing +2.5. The sharp money may be on Dallas early, but the public is going to play against the Cowboys without Prescott. I say wait it out and see if this one goes back to three or higher.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 50): Bet now

These AFC North rivalries used to be about hard-nosed defensive football, but this Week 6 divisional matchup is boasting a butt-load of points with an opening total at 50. Both the Browns and the Steelers have plenty of options on offense and are averaging 31.2 and 29.5 points per game respectively.

Cleveland is walking tall after a convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, hanging 32 points on the NFL’s top-ranked defense. And while Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs following the victory, the results were negative and he sounded fine in postgame interviews. Pittsburgh didn’t show any rust from its sudden bye week (due to Tennessee's COVID outbreak), out-punching Philadelphia 38-29. Combined, these foes have a 7-2 Over/Under record so far in 2020.

If you like the Over in this game – and why wouldn’t you – jump on it now. Those 50-point totals aren’t going to last long and, as of Sunday night, some 50.5 O/U's are popping up.


Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Under 44): Bet later

The Bears got their groove back on defense in Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay. For the first time in two seasons, Chicago caused chaos with three sacks, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and knocked around Tom Brady so bad he couldn’t remember what down it was. As for the Bears offense, it scored 20 or fewer points for the third time this season and the 13th time in the past 21 games.

The Panthers continue to play above expectations, improving to 3-2 SU and ATS with a victory over the floundering Falcons in Week 5. While QB Teddy Bridgewater, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Carolina offense get the love for this turnaround, the Panthers stop unit has made it easy. The defense has allowed its last three opponents to muster scores of 16, 21, and 16, playing Under the number in each of those wins.

This total opened at 43.5 points and jumped to 44 with the first action coming in on the Under. We’ve seen some early Over money on Carolina games already this season, so if you like the Under wait it out and get a little greedy. See if you can get an extra half point on this Over/Under before firing away.

[Udog]

LA Chargers - DE Joey Bosa (triceps), QB Tyrod Taylor (lung), WR Mike WIlliams (hamstring) are questionable tonight versus New Orleans.

New Orleans - WR Michael Thomas (disciplinary) & WR Deonte Harris (hamstring) are out, WR Marshon Lattimore & OT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion) are questionable tonight versus the Chargers.