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Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
The first thing one must address is the recent history between these two. They’ve met 3 times. Philly’s won them all.
2002: Philly –3 won 20-10 at home
2001: Philly +3.5 won 17-13 at Tampa
2001: Philly –3.5 won 31-9 in a home playoff game
So, if Tampa’s to win this one, what has changed to alter that situation? NOTHING.
There’s still a huge fundamental edge in this game—Philly’s outstanding defense is much quicker than Tampa’s plodding offense. That’s resulted in the Bucs getting just 32 total points in those three losses. And look hard at the Bucs regular season. They played four of the league’s better defenses: Baltimore, Philly, Carolina and Pitt. The last three allowed them a total of 29 points. Yes, the Bucs did put up 25 against the Ravens. But the defense provided that. Offensively the Bucs scratched out only 279 yards. Philly allowed them just 207. Carolina 226. Pitt 277.
It’s hard for me to see the Bucs going anywhere offensively here.
Now, courtesy of Marc Lawrence at Preferred Picks, some dazzling trend numbers.
Check this out: If both teams in a semifinal game is coming off a home win and cover, the home team (Philly) is 23-5 SU and 21-7 ATS. Want more? If that home team is less than a 10-point favorite, they’re 13-0 ATS. If that underdog (Tampa) is less than a .777 win percentage, they are 0-13 ATS!!!
Wow!
Tampa also has that history of being 1-21 SU all time when the game time temperature is less than 40 degrees. That one win came lat this season in a 15-0 win at Chicago against an incredibly crippled Bears team with nothing to play for. The Tampa offense did not score a TD in that game and managed only 272 yards.
But Tampa’s defense will come to play. They will dramatically slow down the Eagles attack. But Philly’s QB McNabb should be better after getting some of the rust knocked off in the Atlanta victory. And Philly’s now covered 7 of their last 8 games. Tampa’s 6-5 ATS their last 11.
In short: I love this game! Tampa’s pounding of crippled Frisco (which didn’t cover any of its last 10 games) only keeps this line more reasonable.
3* Philly
2* Under
2002: Philly –3 won 20-10 at home
2001: Philly +3.5 won 17-13 at Tampa
2001: Philly –3.5 won 31-9 in a home playoff game
So, if Tampa’s to win this one, what has changed to alter that situation? NOTHING.
There’s still a huge fundamental edge in this game—Philly’s outstanding defense is much quicker than Tampa’s plodding offense. That’s resulted in the Bucs getting just 32 total points in those three losses. And look hard at the Bucs regular season. They played four of the league’s better defenses: Baltimore, Philly, Carolina and Pitt. The last three allowed them a total of 29 points. Yes, the Bucs did put up 25 against the Ravens. But the defense provided that. Offensively the Bucs scratched out only 279 yards. Philly allowed them just 207. Carolina 226. Pitt 277.
It’s hard for me to see the Bucs going anywhere offensively here.
Now, courtesy of Marc Lawrence at Preferred Picks, some dazzling trend numbers.
Check this out: If both teams in a semifinal game is coming off a home win and cover, the home team (Philly) is 23-5 SU and 21-7 ATS. Want more? If that home team is less than a 10-point favorite, they’re 13-0 ATS. If that underdog (Tampa) is less than a .777 win percentage, they are 0-13 ATS!!!
Wow!
Tampa also has that history of being 1-21 SU all time when the game time temperature is less than 40 degrees. That one win came lat this season in a 15-0 win at Chicago against an incredibly crippled Bears team with nothing to play for. The Tampa offense did not score a TD in that game and managed only 272 yards.
But Tampa’s defense will come to play. They will dramatically slow down the Eagles attack. But Philly’s QB McNabb should be better after getting some of the rust knocked off in the Atlanta victory. And Philly’s now covered 7 of their last 8 games. Tampa’s 6-5 ATS their last 11.
In short: I love this game! Tampa’s pounding of crippled Frisco (which didn’t cover any of its last 10 games) only keeps this line more reasonable.
3* Philly
2* Under