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**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 11:59 AM

NFL odds Week 4: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 3 is in the books, NFL Week 4 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups are a couple of AFC clashes: the New England Patriots visit the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Las Vegas Raiders host the unbeaten Buffalo Bills.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 4 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 4 odds

These are the current NFL Week 4 odds, as of September 27.

Broncos at Jets odds

Opening line
Jets +2.5, Over/Under 40

Why the line moved
Denver very likely won't have QB Drew Lock, and definitely won't have standout wideout Courtland Sutton and star linebacker Von Miller, both lost for the season. Yet the Broncos opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, which says a lot about the Jets in this battle of winless teams. There was no line movement Sunday night.

Colts at Bears odds

Opening line
Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Bears are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), but SuperBook oddsmakers were more impressed with the 2-1 SU and ATS Colts. And apparently, early bettors were, too, as this line moved to Colts -3 Sunday night.

Saints at Lions odds

Opening line
Lions +5.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
There was no line movement Sunday night at The SuperBook before this game came off the board at kickoff of the Packers-Saints contest. Saints-Lions will go back up Monday morning.

Cardinals at Panthers odds

Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under 52.5

Why the line moved
After the Cardinals' unexpected home loss to the Lions and the Panthers' surprising road upset of the Chargers, early bettors seemed to think 4.5 points was too many for visiting Arizona in Week 4. This line dipped to Cardinals -3.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Jaguars at Bengals odds

Opening line
Bengals -3, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved
Jacksonville looked awful in a 31-13 Thursday night home loss to Miami, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals scratched out a 23-23 tie as 5.5-point underdogs at Philadelphia. So The SuperBook gave the Bengals a 3-point nod, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Browns at Cowboys odds

Opening line
Cowboys -4.5, Over/Under 56

Why the line moved
Cleveland (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has a better record than Dallas (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but Cleveland's two wins were at home over Cincinnati and Washington, while Dallas' two losses were on the road against the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. The SuperBook opened at Cowboys -4.5 and moved to -5 Sunday night.

Vikings at Texans odds

Opening line
Texans -4, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
In a battle of winless teams, The SuperBook opened Houston -4 against Minnesota, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

"Talk about a must-win spot for the Texans. They’ll be desperate after falling to 0-3 on Sunday. They’ve played a brutal schedule," Murray said Sunday night, noting Houston's first three weeks were at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore and at Pittsburgh. "The Vikings finally showed some life today. I still don’t really know what to make of them."

Minnesota lost to Tennessee 31-30 Sunday, giving up a late field goal.

Seahawks at Dolphins odds

Opening line
Dolphins +7, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Seattle is 3-0 SU and ATS, putting both those marks on the line in a cross-country trek in Week 4. The SuperBook didn't move Sunday night off the opener of Seahawks -7.

Chargers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last two, and after the Chargers laid an egg against the Panthers, early bettors apparently put some early dollars on the Buccaneers. The SuperBook opened Tampa -6.5 and moved to -7 Sunday night.

Steelers at Titans odds

Opening line
Titans -1.5, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Tennessee opened -1.5 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

"Both teams come in to this matchup at 3-0," Murray said. "The Steelers have been impressive, while the Titans seem to just barely squeak by every week. I'm thinking the public will look to back Pittsburgh here."

Ravens at Washington odds

Opening line
Washington +13.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
No surprise that The SuperBook opened this game with a nearly two-touchdown spread. But nobody was biting Sunday night, and the Ravens remained -13.5.

Giants at Rams odds

Opening line
Rams -11, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Los Angeles (2-1 SU and ATS) rallied from a 21-3 deficit at Buffalo and nearly pulled out the win, falling 35-32 on a last-minute Bills TD. New York (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) had a great opportunity at home in Week 3, going off as a 3-point pup against a 49ers outfit in need of a M*A*S*H unit. Yet the Giants got boatraced 36-9. So The SuperBook felt Rams -11 was about right Sunday night, and in fact, the line later went to -11.5.

Patriots at Chiefs odds

Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
"We opened this game Chiefs -7. We discussed using -7.5, but we’ve noticed sharps betting against the Chiefs every week this season – with varying results so far," Murray said. "I expect good two-way handle here, with the Chiefs included in a lot of moneyline parlays, especially if they get by Baltimore on Monday Night Football."

Bills at Raiders odds

Opening line
Raiders +2.5, Over/Under 52.5

Why the line moved
The spread didn't move early, but the price did, with Buffalo going from -2.5 to -2.5 (-120). Murray has high expectations for betting on this Sunday matchup.

"This could end up being the monster-handle game of the week," Murray said. "The Bills come in 3-0, and Josh Allen is playing at a Pro Bowl level. I didn't expect to be saying that three weeks ago. The Raiders were in a terrible spot Sunday against the Patriots, and they wore down in the second half, but we still think they’re a solid team. I expect good two-way action here."

Eagles at 49ers odds

Opening line
49ers -5.5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) could return in Week 4, and early bettors might be thinking just that, as this line moved to Niners -6 Sunday night.

Falcons at Packers odds

Opening line
Packers -6.5, Over/Under 58

Why the line moved
This line went up before Sunday night's Packers-Saints game, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the line was taken off the board once Packers-Saints kicked off.

"I don’t even have a joke about coach Dan Quinn and the Falcons here. It’s like they’re trying to choke away these games," Murray said, alluding to Atlanta blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in two consecutive games. "The Packers will finish off the majority of the moneyline parlays that survive next Sunday."

**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 12:01 PM

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-13-1
Against the Spread 25-22

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 25-21-1
Against the Spread 24-23

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-18-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Panthers (+6, ML +240) at Chargers, 21-16
Lions (+5.5, ML +200) at Cardinals, 26-23
Packers (+3, ML +145) at Saints, 37-30

The largest favorites to cover

Colts (-11.5) vs. Jets, 36-7
Browns (-7) vs. Washington, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Raiders, 36-20
Buccaneers (-6) at Broncos, 28-10
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Cowboys, 38-31

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an under ticket in the Cincinnati Bengals-Philadelphia Eagles battle, congrats. If you were holding an over ticket, my condolences.

The Bengals were leading 23-16 before QB Carson Wentz desperately scrambled for the right corner of the end zone, diving for the pylon with 21 seconds left in regulation to tie the game 23-23. Over bettors everywhere likely said bad words. I, personally, was holding a Bengals +5 ticket, so all of a sudden my smile disappeared, as a potential touchdown in overtime by Philadelphia would sink me after I'd been on the correct side most of the day. Thankfully that scenario didn't play out.

Anyway, neither team did much of anything in the overtime session, never really threatening to score. The Eagles did drive down the field late, and PK Jake Elliott was about to trot out for the 59-yard field goal to win it. However, a false start penalty caused the Eagles to back it up five yards and head coach Doug Pederson elected to punt the ball away and accept the tie.

Oddly enough, these teams who meet every four years have played to a tie in two of the previous four meetings. Remember when Donovan McNabb didn't know that overtime ended in a tie? That was a game on Nov. 16, 2008 in Cincinnati.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week -- Part 2

The Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) were leading 26-10 heading to the fourth quarter over the Chicago Bears. It looked like Atlanta was going to avenge last week's disgusting collapse on the road against the Dallas Cowboys when they blew a 39-24 lead to fall 40-39. The Week 3 Falcons told the Week 2 Falcons, hold my beer. They allowed 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter on their home field, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose consecutive games when leading by 15 or more points in the final quarter. If you plan to bet the Falcons in the future, make sure to play the opponent on the second-half or live betting in the fourth quarter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Denver Broncos (42.5) game, one which saw future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady squaring off against backup QB Jeff Driskel, with QB Drew Lock sidelined due to injury. The game looked like it was going to be a slam-dunk over, as the Bucs led 23-10 at halftime. Over bettors rejoiced. Then we saw a total of five points in the second half, including a scoreless fourth quarter. Ouch.

The second-lowest total (43.5) was in both the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants game and the battle between the Carolina Panthers-Los Angeles Chargers. The 49ers led the Giants 29-9 late in the fourth quarter before RB Jeff Wilson Jr. punched one in from two yards out to push the total just over, 36-9.

The Panthers surprised the Chargers in a field-goal fest. The Panthers settled for a total of five field goals, including four on trips to the red zone. The game featured just three touchdowns, and only one team posted a double-digit point total (Panthers, 12) in a single quarter.

The highest total on the board Sunday didn't disappoint. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks (57) saw the line rise from 55.5 to 57 during the week. It could have gone way higher. The teams were tied 9-9 after the first quarter, and Seattle led 23-15 at halftime. The scoring continued in the second half, as the Seahawks won 38-31, hanging on to the end similar to their Week 2 SNF win. The teams combined for at least 14 points in every quarter in this one.

The first two primetime games saw the total go 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (55) pending. The Miami Dolphins routed their Sunshine State neighbors, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-13. The over was on pace at halftime, with a total of 28 points on the board, but a low-scoring second half send under bettors to the window with a win. The anticipated shootout between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints (52) lived up to the hype despite the fact both WRs Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were sidelined for their respective teams.

So far this season the over is 5-4 (55.5%) across nine primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Broncos slipped to 0-3 when they lost to the Bucs in Week 3. Driskel, the replacement for the injured Lock, was benched in the fourth quarter in favor of QB Brett Rypien, who was just recalled from the practice squad Saturday. Ouch. Jets QB Sam Darnold, meanwhile, had a pair of pick-sixes in a loss to Indianapolis. The offensive play in this Thursday night battle might be so bad that the opening total of 40 might be a bit high.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have scored 35 or more points in each of their three victories, all over results. This will be the second of their five trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season. Seattle won 38-25 in Week 1 as a pick 'em on a total of 49.5. The Dolphins have gotten a couple of extra days to prepare for the Seahawks after topping the Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field last Thursday. That might not be the only advantage the Dolphins face, as they also have the advantage of the heat and humidity of South Florida, a 10 am PT kickoff time for the Seahawks and, of course, the high travel for Seattle.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Patriots square off with the defending champions, who have had a brutal schedule to date. The Chiefs have already faced playoff teams Houston, Baltimore and now New England in three of the first four games, and they had a difficult overtime win on the road against the Chargers in Week 2. The Patriots have a highly-anticipated game for the second time in three weeks. They came up just short in a Week 2 Sunday Night Football battle in Seattle, losing 35-30 as QB Cam Newton was stuffed at the goal line at the gun to end the game. That's how close they are to being 3-0 SU.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The collapsing Falcons take a trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night, getting an extra day to watch the excruciating film from their loss to the Bears. There are a lot of people who feel head coach Dan Quinn could be out of a job soon after his team made NFL history with the two big blown fourth-quarter leads. The Packers are probably the absolute worst opponent for Atlanta to face in Week 4, as they lead the NFL with 40.7 points per game, hitting the over in all three of their outings. In fact, Green Bay games have seen the over hit by at least 12 points in each of the three outings.

**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 12:01 PM

NFL betting tips for Week 4: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have gone Over the total in all three games to open the 2020 season and travel to Las Vegas for a potential Sin City shootout in Week 4.

The great thing about NFL betting on Sundays is that win or lose, you have a brand-new set of point spreads and totals coming down the pike mere minutes after the week’s game finish.

Depending on your NFL betting strategy, you may want to attack those lines the second they hit the board. Or you may want to play it cool and wait for some line moves and get a better deal later in the week.

These are our best betting tips when it comes to the NFL Week 4 odds to bet now and bet later.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New York Jets: Bet Now

After the way the Broncos and Jets performed in Week 3, the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup is shaping up to be a game only a gambler could love – especially if you grab Denver under the field goal right now.

The 0-3 Broncos hit the board at -2.5 on the road, fresh off a bruising loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. Denver is dinged up, missing bodies on both sides of the ball, but at least it’s not New York. Gang Green was flattened on the road by Indianapolis in Week 3 and QB Sam Darnold threw more INTs returned for touchdowns (2) than touchdowns for his actual team (1).

I wouldn’t blame anyone for passing on this primetime turd altogether, but if you like the Broncos or can’t, in clear conscience, bring yourself to bet on the Jets, grab Denver under the key number of a field goal now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1): Bet Later

The lookahead line for this matchup was around Tennessee -2.5 last week, but when the actual opener hit the board Sunday night, the Titans were giving -2 for only a few minutes before getting slimmed to 1-point home chalk.

The Steelers are coming off an impressive performance against Houston to improve to 3-0 SU on the year. And while Tennessee is also 3-0 SU to start 2020, its been far less dominant in those wins and is 0-3 ATS with those three games decided by a combined six points.

The Titans could be missing Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan for Week 4, facing a Pittsburgh pass rush that leads the league with 15 sacks. But if you’re putting your money on the Music City, wait it out and see if this sucker jumps the fence with action coming in on the Steelers. You could get an extra point or two on the home side.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 49.5): Bet Now

The Bills’ offensive transformation continues to post points, with Buffalo edging the L.A. Rams with 35 points at home in Week 3. Josh Allen and the Bills passing game are tops in all the land and have helped Buffalo blow through all three totals so far this season.

Week 4 presents a taller task, with the total for the team’s trip to Sin City sitting just below 50 points. That’s not going to last long, given the state of the Raiders defense but also how well the Vegas offense performed in its first game in Allegiant Stadium.

The Raiders scored 34 points in that Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints and scored 34 points in their opening game against the Carolina Panthers. The Week 3 result, a 36-20 loss at New England, had a lot to do with the Patriots dominating the football (34:39 TOP) and not giving Las Vegas much time to do anything on offense (as well as some injuries to WR that you should keep an eye on). Even so, the final score still went Over and makes the Silver and Black 3-0 Over/Under on the year.

If you’re banking on a big-time shootout in the Nevada desert, get the Over now.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Under 51.5): Bet Later

The total for this Week 4 game is a bit puzzling, considering the makeup of the Panthers playbook. Carolina, which will still be without star RB Christian McCaffrey this Sunday, is involved in a game with a total at 51.5 points – and it climbed to 51.5 after opening at 51.

The Panthers are far from an explosive team under Teddy Bridgewater and managed to post just 21 points in Week 3’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers, despite the Bolts coughing the ball up four times (three fumbles, one INT).

Now, the other side of this coin, the Arizona Cardinals, will likely do the lion’s share of the scoring in this one. But Arizona hasn’t really blown the doors off opponents either and the defense has been more impressive than the offense, checking opponents to only 20.3 points per game and staying Under in all three games so far.

Like I said, the initial move was to the Over, so wait it out and see if this gets to the key number of 52 before pouncing on the Under.

**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 12:02 PM

NFL Week 4 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

The San Francisco 49ers lost backup TE Jordan Reed last Sunday, but they might get starting TE George Kittle back for Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

NFL Week 3 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 4 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, but also the potential for key players to return from injuries, with the San Francisco 49ers certainly hoping that’s the case.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 4 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Tight end Jordan Reed suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday’s road rout of the New York Giants, and he could miss six-to-eight weeks. However, fellow tight end George Kittle (knee) might return this week at home against the Philadelphia Eagles, and more importantly, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) could return. The Niners are already up a point at The SuperBook at Westgate, from -5.5 to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks: The status of running back Chris Carson (knee) is uncertain for Sunday’s road game against the Miami Dolphins. Seattle opened -7 at The SuperBook and dipped to -6.5 a couple times early, before sticking there on Monday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Wideout Chris Godwin injured a hamstring in Sunday’s win at Denver, and his status is uncertain for a home tilt against the Los Angeles Chargers. But nobody is backing off the Bucs early at The SuperBook, where Tampa Bay moved from -6.5 Sunday night to -7.5 by Monday night.

Denver Broncos: The injuries keep piling up for the Broncos, with defensive tackle Jurrell Casey ruled out for the season Monday with a torn biceps. He is the sixth Denver starter to be injured in the young season, including star LB Von Miller, CB A.J. Bouye, WR Courtland Sutton and QB Drew Lock. Despite the injuries, Denver is currently a three-point favorite on the road against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

Week 4 Weather

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: The early-week forecast calls for a 50 percent chance of rain Sunday in Miami, with modest winds of 10-15 mph. The total at The SuperBook was steady through Monday at the opener of 54.5.

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s a 40 percent chance of showers, along with 10-15 mph winds, for Sunday’s game. The total opened at and remained 45 through Monday at The SuperBook.

**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 12:04 PM

101DENVER -102 NY JETS
NY JETS are 47-74 ATS (-34.4 Units) after a road loss since 1992.

251INDIANAPOLIS -252 CHICAGO
INDIANAPOLIS are 23-9 ATS (13.1 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992.

253NEW ORLEANS -254 DETROIT
DETROIT is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

255ARIZONA -256 CAROLINA
CAROLINA is 28-11 ATS (15.9 Units) in home games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

257JACKSONVILLE -258 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game since 1992.

259CLEVELAND -260 DALLAS
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse in the last 3 seasons.

261MINNESOTA -262 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

263SEATTLE -264 MIAMI
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

265LA CHARGERS -266 TAMPA BAY
LA CHARGERS are 41-20 ATS (19 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.

267PITTSBURGH -268 TENNESSEE
PITTSBURGH is 65-31 ATS (30.9 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

269BALTIMORE -270 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a loss in the last 2 seasons.

271NY GIANTS -272 LA RAMS
NY GIANTS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the last 3 seasons.

273NEW ENGLAND -274 KANSAS CITY
NEW ENGLAND is 33-12 ATS (19.8 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.

275BUFFALO -276 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 4-20 ATS (-18 Units) in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.

277PHILADELPHIA -278 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

279ATLANTA -280 GREEN BAY
ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 12:05 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, October 1

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DENVER (0 - 3) at NY JETS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 4

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 0) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
CHICAGO is 55-82 ATS (-35.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) at DETROIT (1 - 2) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DETROIT is 149-187 ATS (-56.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (2 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 2) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (0 - 2 - 1) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 41-64 ATS (-29.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (2 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (0 - 3) at HOUSTON (0 - 3) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (3 - 0) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-75 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-63 ATS (-31.3 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/4/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at LA RAMS (2 - 1) - 10/4/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/4/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-50 ATS (+33.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-98 ATS (+22.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-98 ATS (+22.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 209-153 ATS (+40.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 200-154 ATS (+30.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-93 ATS (+26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (3 - 0) at LAS VEGAS (2 - 1) - 10/4/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 56-85 ATS (-37.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-112 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-112 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) - 10/4/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (0 - 3) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 10/5/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 117-85 ATS (+23.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 200-146 ATS (+39.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-29-2020, 12:06 PM

NFL

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 1

Denver @ NY Jets
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, October 4

Indianapolis @ Chicago
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home

Cleveland @ Dallas
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home

Minnesota @ Houston
Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

New Orleans @ Detroit
New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing New Orleans

Arizona @ Carolina
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Carolina
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games at home

Baltimore @ Washington
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games

LA Chargers @ Tampa Bay
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers

Seattle @ Miami
Seattle
Seattle is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

NY Giants @ LA Rams
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
NY Giants is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Buffalo @ Las Vegas
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Buffalo's last 17 games on the road
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

New England @ Kansas City
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Philadelphia @ San Francisco
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
San Francisco is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games

Monday, October 5

Atlanta @ Green Bay
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:17 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, October 1

Denver @ NY Jets

Game 101-102
October 1, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
128.608
NY Jets
122.191
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Under

Sunday, October 4

Baltimore @ Washington

Game 269-270
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
136.081
Washington
126.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 14
47
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+14); Over

New Orleans @ Detroit

Game 253-254
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
138.337
Detroit
126.185
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 4
55
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-4); Under

LA Chargers @ Tampa Bay

Game 265-266
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
123.780
Tampa Bay
136.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 13
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-7 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Chicago

Game 251-252
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
133.736
Chicago
132.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over

Arizona @ Carolina

Game 255-256
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
128.387
Carolina
121.767
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-3 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati

Game 257-258
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
119.672
Cincinnati
128.550
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 9
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
48
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3); Under

Minnesota @ Houston

Game 261-262
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
129.700
Houston
128.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 4
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+4); Under

Seattle @ Miami

Game 263-264
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
137.371
Miami
132.217
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7); Over

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee

Game 267-268
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.585
Tennessee
131.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
47
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-1); Under

Cleveland @ Dallas

Game 259-260
October 4, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
125.697
Dallas
134.266
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-4 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ LA Rams

Game 271-272
October 4, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
120.379
LA Rams
136.169
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 16
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 12 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-12 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Las Vegas

Game 275-276
October 4, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
135.324
Las Vegas
126.868
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 8 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-2 1/2); Over

New England @ Kansas City

Game 273-274
October 4, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.123
Kansas City
143.514
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(+7 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ San Francisco

Game 277-278
October 4, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
130.161
San Francisco
134.827
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+7); Under

Monday, October 5

Atlanta @ Green Bay

Game 279-280
October 5, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.387
Green Bay
139.019
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
58
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Over

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:20 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Broncos (0-3) @ NJ Jets (0-3)
— 3rd-string QB Rypien gets his first NFL start here; he played in relief in LW’s loss to Tampa Bay (8-9 for 53 yards, one INT).
— Denver has been outscored 47-20 in first half; they’ve scored only 3.78 points/red zone drive (34 points/9 drives).
— Broncos are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— AFC West teams are 6-3-1 ATS outside their division.

— Jets lost their first three games, allowing 31.3 ppg.
— Jets have been outscored 59-13 in first half.
— Gang Green has converted only 12 of 39 third down plays.
— Jets are 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— AFC East teams are 1-3 ATS as a non-divisional underdog.

— Denver won five of last seven series games.
— Broncos won three of last five visits here.

Colts (2-1) @ Chicago (3-0)
— Indy scored 28.7 ppg in winning two of first three games.
— Colts have allowed only 7 plays of 20+ yards, fewest in league.
— Indy lost its only road game, even though they outgained Jaguars by 204 yards.
— Last 4+ years, Colts are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— AFC South teams are 2-6 ATS outside their division, 0-4 on road.

— Foles makes his first start for Chicago here; he rallied Bears to comeback win last week in Atlanta.
— Bears won their first three games, by 4-4-4 points- they trailed two of the games at halftime.
— Chicago is 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
— NFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside their division.

— Colts won three of last five series games; they won three of last four visits here.

Saints (1-2) @ Detroit (1-2)
— Saints lost their last two games, giving up 71 points.
— New Orleans has only nine plays of 20+ yards in three games- they’ve been outscored 57-37 in 2nd half of games.
— Saints are 12-4 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-1 this year.
— NFC South teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division, 3-1 on road.

— Detroit lost two of first three games, outscored 56-26 in second half- they’re giving up 30.7 ppg.
— Lions have scored 23-21-26 points, scoring seven TD’s on 33 drives.
— Detroit is 6-9 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.
— NFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside their division.

— Detroit won three of last four series games; they lost last meeting 52-38 in Superdome three years ago.
— Teams split last four meetings here; Saints last visited Detroit in 2014.

Cardinals (2-1) @ Carolina (1-2)
— Arizona won two of its first three games, scoring 29 ppg.
— All three Cardinal games stayed under the total.
— Arizona lost field position all three games; they’ve been good in red zone (64 points on 11 drives).
— Cardinals are road favorite for first time since 2017; they’re 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— NFC West teams are 8-2 ATS outside their division, 6-1 if favored.

— Carolina won its first game LW; they were +4 in turnovers against rookie QB Herbert.
— Panthers scored 55 points on 13 red zone drives (4.23 ppp, not great)
— Carolina is 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— NFC South teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division, 0-4 at home.

— Carolina won last four series games; two of them were in playoffs.
— Home team won four of last five series games.
— Kingsbury’s last game at Texas Tech was a loss to Baylor, coached by Matt Rhule.

Jaguars (1-2) @ Cincinnati (0-3)
— Jaguars lost last two games, allowing 33-31 points, turning ball over six times (-4)- they lost field position in those games, by 16-12 yards.
— Jacksonville outscored foes 39-22 in second half of games.
— Jaguars are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 2-6 ATS outside their division, 0-4 on road.

— Bengals are off to an 0-2-1 start; they scored 30-23 points in last two games.
— Cincy has only six plays of 20+ yards in its three games.
— Bengals’ three games were decided by total of eight points.
— Cincy is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite.
— AFC North teams are 5-2-1 ATS outside their division.

— Jaguars are 13-9 in series, winning 23-7/27-17 in last two meetings.
— Teams split last four series games played here.

Browns (2-1) @ Dallas (1-2)
— Cleveland won its last two games, scoring 35-34 points.
— Browns ran ball for 173.7 ypg so far this season.
— Last 4+ years, Cleveland is 10-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— AFC North teams are 5-2-1 ATS outside their division.

— Dallas lost two of first three games; last two weeks, they played 40-39/31-38 games.
— Cowboys turned ball over six times (-5) in last two games- they lost field position by 17-14 yards in those games.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 8-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— NFC East teams are 1-9-1 ATS outside their division, 0-4 if favored.

— Dallas is 4-0 vs the Browns, winning by average of 13 points.
— Cleveland lost 19-12/23-20 OT in their two visits here.

Vikings (0-3) @ Houston (0-3)
Titans had COVID-related issues this week; unsure if this game will be re-scheduled, because of contact tracing involving the Vikings.
— Minnesota lost its first three games, allowing 34 ppg.
— Vikings already have seven turnovers; they’re -5 in turnovers, and lost field position in their games by 14-15-16 yards.
— Minnesota is 3-8-1 ATS in its last dozen games as a road underdog.
— NFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside their division.

— Houston lost its first three games, giving up 28.3 ppg.
— Texans don’t have a takeaway yet (-4); they’ve played three strong teams.
— Houston has been outscored 41-19 in the 2nd half of games.
— Texans are 8-12-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 2-6 ATS outside their division, 2-2 at home.

— Minnesota won last four series games, winning 31-13 in last meeting (2016)
— Vikings won 34-28 OT/23-6 in their last two visits here.

Seahawks (3-0) @ Miami (1-2)
— Seattle won all three games, but they’ve given up 28.7 ppg (over 3-0).
— Seahawks have 15 touchdowns on 33 drives; they’re +4 in turnovers.
— Seattle is 6-1-4 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks won field position all three games, by 6-13-14 yards.
— NFC West teams are 8-2 ATS outside their division, 6-1 if favored.

— Miami is 1-2, but they did score 28-31 points the last two weeks.
— Dolphins are 12-8-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home underdog.
— Miami is 4-8 ATS in its last dizen games vs NFC teams.
— AFC East teams are 1-3 ATS as a non-divisional underdog.

— Dolphins won five of last seven series games.
— Home side won last four series games; four of last five series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Seahawks lost four of last five series games, with lone win in 1996.

Chargers (1-2) @ Tampa Bay (2-1)
— Chargers scored 17.3 ppg in their 1-2 start; Herbert lost both his starts.
— All three Charger games stayed under the total.
— LA’s three games were decided by total of 11 points.
— Chargers actually converted 16-28 on 3rd down in their two losses.
— AFC West teams are 6-3-1 ATS outside their division, 3-1-1 on road.

— Tampa Bay won its last two games, scoring 59 points (7 TD’s on 21 drives).
— Buccaneers scored 60 points on ten red zone drives- very efficient.
— Tampa Bay is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite.
— NFC South teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division, 1-3 if favored.

— Chargers are 8-3 in series, winning 34-24/28-21 in last two meetings.
— LA won five of six visits here, with only loss 34-29 in 2012.

Steelers (3-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
Titans had COVID-related issues this week; unsure if this will be re-scheduled, possibly moved to Monday night
— Steelers won their first three games, scoring 26-26-28 points.
— Pittsburgh is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Steelers have outrushed opponents 419-162 so far this season.
— AFC North teams are 5-2-1 ATS outside their division.

— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a home underdog.
— AFC South teams are 2-6 ATS outside their division, 2-2 at home.

— Pittsburgh won five of last seven series games; they lost last meeting 40-17.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Ravens (2-1) @ Washington (2-1)
— Short week, short travel here for Baltimore, after Monday’s loss to the Chiefs.
— Ravens only had 70 passing yards Monday; they’ve scored 30.3 ppg this year
—Baltimore is outscoring teams 37-13 in 2nd half of games- all three of their games stayed under the total.
— Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— AFC North teams are 5-2-1 ATS outside their division.

— Washington lost its last two games, giving up 64 points, 318 rushing yards.
— Washington has been outscored 54-14 in the first half this season.
— Washington is 9-9 ATS in its last 18 games as a home underdog.
— NFC East teams are 1-9-1 ATS outside their division, 1-5 if an underdog.

— Teams split last six meetings; Redskins won last two, by 3-6 points.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

NJ Giants (0-3) @ LA Rams (2-1)
— Giants lost their first three games, scoring 12.7 ppg.
— Big Blue has been out rushed 369-170, outscored 4-16 in first half.
— Giants have only 19 points in six trips inside the red zone.
— Giants are 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
— NFC East teams are 1-9-1 ATS outside their division, 1-5 if an underdog.

— Rams lost in Buffalo LW, are 2-1, scoring 29.7 ppg.
— LA has outscored opponents 52-20 in second half of games.
— Rams have converted 22-39 third down plays this season.
— Under McVay, LA is 9-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— NFC West teams are 8-2 ATS outside their division, 6-1 if favored.

— Giants won 7 of last 8 series games, but lost last meeting 51-17 in ’17.
— Giants won last three road series games, all in St Louis- they last played the Rams in California (Anaheim) in 1994.
— Sean McVay’s grandfather coached the Giants back in the 70’s.

Patriots (2-1) @ Kansas City (3-0)
— New England is 2-1; they scored 66 points in last two games, but lost only road game 35-30 in Seattle.
— Patriots are +4 in turnovers; they ran ball for 217-250 yards in their wins, 67 in their loss.
— Last 4+ years, New England is 2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— AFC East teams are 3-3 ATS outside their division, 2-1 at home.

— Short week for the Chiefs after their 34-20 win in Baltimore Monday.
— KC won its first three games, scoring 30.3 ppg.
— Chiefs gave up 341 YR the last two weeks, also allowed a kick return TD last week.
— KC is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.
— AFC West teams are 6-3-1 ATS outside their division, 2-1-1 if favored.

— Teams split last six series games- KC won 23-16 in Foxboro LY, after losing at home in OT in AFC title game two years ago.
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Bills (3-0) @ Las Vegas (2-1)
— Buffalo won its first three games, scoring 27-31-35 points.
— Bills converted 50% of their 3rd down plays in all three games.
— Buffalo was outscored in 2nd half all three games, by total of 61-34.
— Last 4+ years, Bills are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— AFC East teams are 3-3 ATS outside their division, 2-0 if favored.

— Raiders won two of first three games, scoring 34-34-20 points.
— Las Vegas converted 16-28 on 3rd down in its wins; 3-9 in their loss.
— All three Raider games went over the total.
— Las Vegas is 7-5-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.
— AFC West teams are 6-3-1 ATS outside their division, 3-2 at home.

— Buffalo won three of last five series games, but they lost last five visits to LA/Oakland- their last road win against the Raiders was in 1991.

Eagles (0-2-1) @ San Francisco (2-1)
— Eagles allowed 29 ppg in their 0-2-1 start; they’ve been outscored 49-13 in 2nd half.- Eagles were favored in all three games
— Philly turned ball over eight times in three games, is already -7 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
— NFC East teams are 1-9-1 ATS outside their division, 1-5 if an underdog.

— 49ers beat Giants 36-9 last week while playing without 10 injured starters.
— Niners outscored first three opponents 50-19 in first half of games.
— 49ers converted 15 of last 25 third down plays.
— SF is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite.
— NFC West teams are 8-2 ATS outside their division, 6-1 if favored.

— Philly won six of last eight series games; last meeting was in 2017.
— Three of last four series games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Eagles won four of last five visits to San Francisco.

Falcons (0-3) @ Green Bay (3-0)
— Falcons are 0-3; they led 26-10 with 7:00 left last week, led 29-10 at halftime week before.
— Atlanta has been outscored 74-33 in second half of games.
— Falcons have allowed 18 plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.
— Atlanta is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— NFC South teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division, 3-1 on road.

— Green Bay won its first three games, scoring 43-42-37 points.
— All three Packer games went over the total.
— Green Bay won field position all three games, by 14-8-5 yards.
— Packers covered seven of last ten games as a home favorite.
— NFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside their division.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Average total in last five series games: 64.2.
— Falcons lost last three visits to Lambeau, by 1-6-14 points.

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:24 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Last week's trends that were outlined provided mixed results, as those teams on the 'Hot' side of the equation went 2-4 ATS in the end, but the ATS results in the Dallas, Houston, and Tennessee games could have been a lot different that would have helped out that Week 3 trend further.

Fading the 2-0 ATS teams on the road ended up going 2-1 ATS, but it got the benefit of being on the right side of that late call in the Buffalo Bills game that saw the home team leave the building with the SU and ATS victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

Those are lines of thought that should be kept in mind for next season though, as the 2-0 and 0-2 angles will be brought up once again.

This week's piece looks to build upon that from both the immediate future this week, and the futures market down the road.

Who's Hot

NFL teams that are 0-3 ATS entering Week 4 are 6-1 SU as favorites (5-1 SU as home favorites) the past five years.

Thanks to how well backing those 0-2 ATS teams in Week 3 of the season has worked the past few years, we don't always get many 0-3 ATS teams coming into Week 4.

But this year we've got five of them, and four of the five are suiting up at home this week.

Who do you Follow?

Titans
Eagles
Jets
Texans
Cowboys

Now that Week 4 outright run by 0-3 teams does omit the Chargers victory in Miami a season ago given that both sides were 0-3 ATS that day and someone had to win, but that's still quite the record for these teams that haven't come close to market expectation so to speak.

I mean, we do have the anomaly of Tennessee being 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS which is something that I'll touch on later, but being 0-3 ATS generally means your team is sitting with a losing record after three weeks and desperately needs the win to keep their season alive.

A 3-3-1 ATS record in those seven games makes laying the points a little trickier – especially if there are some of those nasty hooks around, but this 6-1 SU mark for favorites that have yet to cover a point spread begs the question;

How attractive does a Houston ML – Dallas ML parlay look to you this week?

Obviously a parlay isn't needed in the end, but with the Cowboys laying -4.5 at home vs Cleveland, and Houston laying -4 at home vs Minnesota, they are the only two 0-3 ATS teams that come into Week 3 as favorites.

Underdogs in this role in Week 4 are 6-2 ATS over that same five-year span with four outright winners in those games, so be on the look out for the Jets (+2) on TNF, Tennessee (+3) at home vs Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia +7 visiting San Francisco as well.

Who's Not

No NFL team that has started a year 0-3 ATS has gone on to make the Super Bowl that season the past five years.

It was in this piece after Week 1 that I brought up the idea about drastically eliminating nearly half of the Super Bowl futures market based on those teams starting 0-1 SU. Only eight of 36 had done it, and half were New England where you knew they still had a division title locked up and at least one home playoff game.

Well, you can trim down that futures list even further if you want with these 0-3 ATS teams, as none of them have gone on to make the Super Bowl that season.

Again, not too surprising given that most 0-3 ATS teams are going to likely be 1-2 SU at best more often than not, but this year we do have the Tennessee Titans as the lone team to be 1-0 SU after Week 1 and 0-3 ATS after three weeks, so sorry Titans fans, might be time to rip up those Super Bowl futures. I wouldn't whole heartedly buy into that, but three wins by a grand total of six points is really hard to do. Kicking issues made that Week 1 score closer then it needed to be, but with the Titans now the first NFL team dealing with a virus issue, who knows how derailed their season could get here.

Obviously no need to actually rip any futures ticket up yet, but I wouldn't be going to invest in the Titans right now.

This no Super Bowl trips for 0-3 ATS teams does bring another layer to the interesting dilemma in the NFC East between the Cowboys and Eagles. At least on one side of the ball there are huge concerns for both teams, and yet, with what Washington and the Giants look like this year, it's still highly likely that one of the Cowboys or Eagles ends up on that New England path of starting out 0-1 SU and trying to make a Super Bowl.

But the Pats never started out a season 0-3 ATS in any of the seasons starting with the 2014-15 season that saw them make a Super Bowl, a year they did start out 0-1 SU and win it all.

Right now, Dallas is sitting in the +1800 range to win it all right now with Philly further back around +5000. Those are two tickets I think you really want no part of right now as Dallas has to find a defense, and Philly's got to find or fix numerous things on offense.

Both sides may end up bringing a bit more hope after this week if the Week 4 history of 0-3 ATS teams winning outright being on a 10-5 SU run continues for them specifically, but outside of being the side to outlast whatever brand of football the NFC East ends up being this year, it may actually be time to rip up other futures on these two squads.

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:27 AM

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 1 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 1

DENVER at NY JETS

Broncos on 20-8 “under” run since mid 2018 (11-8 “under” for Fangio).
Denver also 5-2 last 7 vs. points away.
Jets 0-3 SU and vs. line in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Broncos, based on extended “totals” and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 4

INDIANAPOLIS at CHICAGO

Bears on 6-14 spread skid since late 2018, but they’re 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. line early in 2020.
Chicago also on 18-8 “under” run since mid 2018.
Bears 2-4 as underdog since 2019 after covering 4 of preceding 5 in role.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT

After covering last seven as visitor in 2019, Saints dropped first road game this season (at Raiders).
New Orleans also on 8-2 “over” run since late 2019.
Lions also “over” 13-6 since 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

ARIZONA at CAROLINA

Kliff Kingsbury 12-6-1 vs. spread since taking over Cards in 2019.
Panthers won at Chargers last week but on 2-8-1 spread skid since mid 2019.
Carolina 0-4-1 last five vs. points at Charlotte.
Panthers also “over” 7-1 last eight home since mid-2019 (2-1 “over” for Rhule).

Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI

Jags have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 as 'dog.
If Bengals chalk note 1-5 mark last six in role since early 2018.
Cincy also “over” 5-2 last seven since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Jags, based on “totals” and team trends.

CLEVELAND at DALLAS

Browns 6-12-1 vs. line since 2019 (1-2 early this season for Stefanski).
Also, no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 as an underdog.
Cowboys “over” 6-3 last nine at Arlington, also just 3-8 last 11 overall as chalk.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at HOUSTON

Vikes “over” 8-3 last 11 in reg season.
Texans just 3-6-1 last ten as chalk.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at MIAMI

Hawks 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine on reg-season road.
Also on 17-8 “over” run since late 2018.
After Jags win, Dolphins now 11-4 last 15 as 'dog.
Miami also “over” 7-3 last 10 since mid 2018 (though 1-2 “under” to begin 2020).

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

LA CHARGERS at TAMPA BAY

Bolts only 3-7-1 last 11 vs. spread away (0-0-1 this season).
Bruce Arians Cards and Bucs teams “over” 29-13 their last 42 games.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE

Steel was 5-0-1 its last six as a 'dog in 2019 minus Big Ben, Tomlin now 10-1-1 as 'dog since 2018.
Pitt also “under” 14-6 last 20 since late 2018.
Titans 1-4 last five as chalk and 0-3 vs. line in 2020 9though 3-0 SU!).

Tech Edge: Steelers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at WASHINGTON

Into Monday vs. Chiefs, Ravens had won last 14 SU in reg season and were 11-1 vs. number last 12 reg season games before loss to Chiefs.
Wash only 7-13 last 20 on board since late 2018 (spanning three coaches).

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at LA RAMS

G-Men covered at Bears, now 11-3 as visiting 'dog since 2018.
Rams were only 2-3 as home chalk LY and yet to be favored in 2020.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY

Belichick barely failed as underdog at Seattle but still 13-4 as 'dog since 2010.
Chiefs have covered last three reg.-season meetings.
After Monday at Baltimore, KC 12-0 SU, 11-1 vs. line last 11 since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on Belichick underdog trends.

BUFFALO at LAS VEGAS

Bills 8-2-2 vs. spread as reg season visitor since mid 2018.
Note Buffalo “over” first three in 2020 after 13-4 “under” mark last season.
Raiders also “over” first three in 2020 after 6-1 “unders” to close 2019.

Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and recent “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO

Birds 3-8 vs. line last 10 since mid 2019, also only 4-6 as underdog since 2018.
Philly also “over” 7-1 last 8 away.
Niners “over” 5-2 last seven reg season at Santa Clara.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Monday, Oct. 5

ATLANTA at GREEN BAY

Falcons 8-4 vs. line since mid 2019 (1-1 in 2020), also “over” 3 in a row.
Pack “over” last five since late 2019 and 5-1 last six vs. points at Lambeau.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

**Udog** · 09-30-2020, 09:30 AM

Close Calls - Week 3
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games.

Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.

Patriots (-7) 36 Raiders 20 (47)

After falling just short in Week 2, the Patriots were caught in a tight game in the first half leading by three after both teams put together touchdowns in the final minute of the 2nd quarter.

While those points spoiled a spectacular ‘under’ pace, only 10 points were added in the third and the Raiders could only muster a field goal after a long drive into the fourth quarter putting the scoring at 36.

New England would go 86 yards and burn more than six minutes before effectively clinching the win with a 29-13 advantage. A penalty on the kickoff return would pin the Raiders deep and they fumbled on first down, taken in for a Patriots touchdown to seal the ‘over’ as well. The Raiders would add a late touchdown as well for 56 points including 20 in the final 5:17 of game clock.

Bills (-2) 35 Rams (46½)

The ultimate ‘under’ team last season the Bills have changed course this season and scored three touchdowns in the first half for the early edge vs. the Rams.

Buffalo scored first after the break as well to take a 28-3 edge, a now an infamous score in recent NFL history. The Rams would do their best impression of Buffalo’s AFC East rival putting four consecutive touchdowns together, the last of which came on a short field after an Aaron Donald sack and fumble recovery against Josh Allen.

The following touchdown came with 4:30 to go putting the Rams ahead 35-32 with a remarkable comeback completed. Allen would convert a 3rd-and-22 and moved Buffalo into the red zone however. The rising MVP candidate would then take his second big penalty in the game with a face mask call pushing the Bills back to the 30-yard line and eventually facing 4th-and-8 with 25 seconds to go.

Allen and the Bills were bailed out with a tough pass interference call on the Rams and Buffalo connected for the game-winning touchdown and spread covering extra-point with 15 seconds to go.

Steelers (-3½) 28 Texans 21 (46½)

The Texans seemed to be in control of this game up 14-3 and the Steelers were facing 3rd-and-goal from the 10-yard-line after an intentional grounding call. Ben Roethlisberger would deliver the touchdown pass to get the Steelers back within four and both teams would add another touchdown before halftime for a surprisingly high scoring first half.

Pittsburgh would climb within one with a field goal out of the break before four straight punts were exchanged without a single first down. Early in the fourth quarter still leading by one Houston was across midfield, but Deshaun Watson wound up intercepted at the 13-yard-line. Pittsburgh converted a pair of third downs and marched down the field for a seven-minute drive to take the lead.

Up five Pittsburgh went for two and succeeded and Houston’s next possession featured a sack and a false start to leave 3rd-and-26. After picking up more than half that yardage Houston surprisingly punted, and never saw the ball again.

49ers (-3) 36 N.Y. Giants 9 (43½)

This game was closer than the final score and nearly 2-to-1 production edges indicate. It was 6-6 until 67 seconds to go before halftime as the 49ers would score 10 points before the break, making the most of an interception.

The Giants scored out of the break to cut the score to 16-9 after a field goal on a lengthy drive and the ‘under’ pace seemed secure. San Francisco would score a pair of touchdowns over the next five minutes to seal the outcome leading 29-9 early in the fourth quarter.

Nick Mullens and Jeff Wilson would star on a 92-yard touchdown drive culminating in a touchdown to push the total ‘over’ with just over three minutes to go.

Titans (-2½) 31 Vikings 30 (43½)

While both teams moved the ball successfully the scoring was mostly limited to field goals early in this game with a 17-12 Vikings edge nearly midway through the third quarter. Minnesota appeared to break the game open with a 71-yard touchdown for rookie Justin Jefferson but the Titans would score a pair of touchdowns in the final four minutes of the third quarter to secure the ‘over’ and put Tennessee in front by one, missing on the two-point attempt. Minnesota would score early in the fourth to lead by five, also unable to get the conversion.

The struggling Minnesota defense would hold on the next Titans drive, with Tennessee opting for and getting a 54-yard field goal to trail by two, keeping both spread outcomes in play for the final six minutes. Minnesota had two penalties and was unable to put the game away on its next possession and for the third straight week the Titans delivered a late kick to go in front as Stephen Gostkowski again hit from long range.

While Minnesota remained in range to cover they seemed more of a threat to allow another score than to go back in front on a disastrous final drive that resulted in a Kirk Cousins interception on 4th-and-26 after he had earlier fumbled on the drive.

Browns (-7) 34 Washington 20 (45)

Cleveland led 17-7 at halftime but Washington would storm back in the third quarter with consecutive touchdown drives, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth as a touchdown underdog.

After two negative drives to start the second half the Browns converted a big 3rd-and-12 at the end of the third quarter and found the end zone with 11 minutes to go to lead by four. An interception followed as Cleveland put in another touchdown three plays later putting Cleveland up 11.

Washington had its fifth turnover of the game on the next possession across midfield to spoil any chances of climbing back within the number and the Browns would add a field goal to complete a rare 2-1 start in Cleveland.

Bengals (+5½) 23 Eagles 23 (47)

After a scoreless first quarter the Eagles completed a busy second quarter with a long pass for a touchdown with 16 seconds to go before halftime to lead 13-10. The Bengals would go in front 17-16 with a touchdown late in the third quarter as the total sat at 33.

Cincinnati stalled on a pair of drives and settled for field goals to lead 23-16 but after some disastrous moments, Carson Wentz put together the tying drive in the final three minutes, scoring himself on a seven-yard scramble with 21 seconds to go.

Those on the ‘under’ seemed doomed while underdog ticket holders sweated but neither offense generated a significant scoring threat over three possessions each in overtime. On its second overtime drive the Eagles did reach the Cincinnati 43-yard-line but then had penalties on two of the next three plays as for a pair of winless teams, a tie seemed to be a favorable result.

Bears (+2½) 30 Falcons 26 (46)

After an unfathomable collapse in Week 2 the Falcons didn’t come out flat, they quickly jumped out to a 16-3 lead though the Bears were able to score before halftime to stay in the game. Mitchell Trubisky threw an interception on Chicago’s first second half possession and was replaced by Nick Foles, who also ended his first drive with an interception, though he led the Bears into scoring range.

Atlanta added 10 points in the third quarter and led 26-10, where the score remained after missing a field goal early in the fourth quarter. A Bears comeback didn’t seem possible after a 4th-and-goal touchdown was lost on replay review. Still up 16, Atlanta had a 3-and-out to give the Bears the ball back with nine minutes to go. Foles converted a 4th down in Chicago territory and the Bears would eventually find the end zone but remained down two scores with a failed conversion.

The Falcons again punted after picking up only one yard and the Bears struck quickly with a 55-yard touchdown drive in just three plays, suddenly down only three. Atlanta went backwards and handed the Bears extra yardage with a penalty on the punt as the Bears needed only 44 yards to complete the comeback, with Foles hitting Anthony Miller just after the two-minute warning.

Atlanta crossed midfield before Matt Ryan was intercepted as the Falcons managed to out-do themselves again with another 4th quarter meltdown.

Buccaneers (-6) 28 Broncos 10 (42½)

The Buccaneers jumped in front early in Denver and with a 23-3 lead late in the second quarter the outcome seemed secure. The Broncos would score in the final seconds before halftime to make it a 33-point first half as the ‘over’ also seemed inevitable.

The Buccaneers notched a safety early in the third quarter but had an illegal block on the return to give up the favorable field position. Denver would have the next scoring threat but threw an interception near midfield and the Buccaneers added three points at the end of the quarter to put the scoring at 38.

Both teams punted on fourth quarter possessions, but Denver looked like they would help those on the ‘over’ with a drive to the Tampa Bay 16-yard-line. Eventually facing 4th-and-1 the Broncos were stuffed and Tampa Bay was able run out the remaining clock to keep the total ‘under’.

Seahawks (-5½) 38 Cowboys 31 (57½)

The afternoon showcase between prominent NFC teams lived up to its billing as while Seattle seemed to have control with a 30-15 edge early in the third quarter following a Dallas fumble, the Cowboys would rally back.

Dallas touchdown drives of 94 and 89 yards put the Cowboys within two early in the fourth quarter but they were not able to tie the game going for two with still more than 13 minutes remaining. The high total was already cleared when Dallas did take the lead on a 42-yard Greg Zuerlein field goal to close a 16-play drive with Zuerlein having missed two extra-points earlier in the game. Leading by one as a healthy underdog Dallas was in a favorable position, even after Seattle converted a 4th-and-3 just across midfield.

Facing 3rd-and-3 in field goal range Dallas just needed one stop to seal the cover but Russell Wilson hit DK Metcalf for a 29-yard touchdown. To the horror of Dallas backers the Seahawks also connected on the two-point conversion to suddenly lead by seven. Dallas had moved the ball with ease the entire game and still had all three timeouts, but time was running short with the Cowboys reaching a 1st down at the Seattle 22-yard-line.

Dak Prescott was sacked on 2nd down and Dallas used its final timeout with 16 seconds to go. Prescott would break free from pressure and heave to the end zone on a broken play on 3rd down, predictably ending with an interception as Seattle again escaped with a win.

Packers (+3½) 37 Saints 30 (51½)

This was a back-and-forth game, but the critical sequence came early in the fourth quarter with a 27-27 tie. The Packers went for it on 4th-and-1 and initially were given a new set of downs, but a New Orleans challenge was successful.

With the ball and some momentum after the stop the Saints would give it right back on 2nd-and-3 near field goal range with a Taysom Hill fumble. New Orleans held the Packers to a field goal as a touchdown would still get the job done for Saints backers down three, but New Orleans was forced to punt with under seven minutes remaining.

Green Bay was in scoring range quickly but got a big 3rd down converted via penalty and eventually found the end zone at the two-minute warning to lead by 10. The Saints would add a field goal late, but Green Bay delivered Sunday night to stay on top of the NFC.

Chiefs (+3½) 34 Ravens 20 (55)

The Chiefs took command quickly Monday night but a kickoff return touchdown kept Baltimore in the game, as did a missed field goal at halftime for the Chiefs for a 27-10 advantage. The ‘over’ pace was strong at that point, but the Ravens got stops in the third quarter and only three points were added.

Early in the fourth Baltimore suddenly found itself within a score, taking advantage of a short field after the Chiefs failed on 4th-and-1. Hopes for a comeback faded quickly as the Chiefs faced only one third down on the way to another touchdown, going up by 14 and putting the scoring at 54 with still more than eight minutes remaining.

The promising ‘over’ wound up not making it there however as field goals weren’t needed and both teams wound up missing on 4th down efforts in scoring range late in the game.

**Udog** · 10-01-2020, 09:22 AM

Broncos vs. Jets Week 4 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

With the Broncos and Jets kicking off Week 4 with the Thursday Night Football game, make a note that NFL teams prior to playing on TNF this year are now 0-6 straight up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) the week before.

Not something specific to use for this game, but it is something to keep in mind for bettors looking at the spread or ML options on Tampa Bay and Chicago this week, as the Bucs and Bears meet in Chicago for Week 5's TNF game.

For this Broncos-Jets game, it is going to take some work to find something likeable enough to get behind either of these squads, as questions about whether both organizations are deciding on whether to tank or not start to linger.

Truthfully there hasn't been much to like from either Denver or the New York Jets this year, as this pair of 0-3 SU teams could end up being a quick reminder about the tendency for TNF games to be duds.

Betting Resources

Week 4 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Line Movements

Spread: Denver -1
Money-Line: Denver -110, NY Jets -110
Total: 39.5

2020 Betting Stats

Denver

Overall: 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Road: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U

New York

Overall: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Home: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U

Handicapping the Total

The Denver Broncos and New York Jets have each scored 14 or fewer points in two of their respective three contests so far, and only the Broncos were able to get over the 20-point plateau in the outlying game with 21 points against Pittsburgh.

Those kind of abysmal point totals can't have anyone confidently looking at the 'over' here, unless you think you'll see a few turnovers at the beginning of drives, translating into short fields and easy points.

Denver's move to Brett Rypien at quarterback is one where the front office is likely plenty comfortable living with either result. If he lights it up then maybe they've got to give him a fair shake, and if he struggles too, well, it might just hang on until Lock comes back and really makes a decision on whether or not he's going to be the guy going forward.

Not sure how you can confidently believe that Rypien's insertion into the lineup will all of a sudden have this Broncos offense constantly moving the ball other then if the thought process is that negative regarding the Jets defense. Understandable if that's the case, but still somewhat of a tough ask to ensure the Broncos offense pulls their weight for any chance of the 'over' connecting.

At the same time, the Jets offense has already shown that it stinks once again, and the strength of Denver's team is that defensive unit. The Broncos defense have held future Hall of Famers in Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady to fewer than 30 points against them in back-to-back weeks, so I'm not sure they'll even be seen facing QB Sam Darnold and this Jets attack as much of a challenge. Hard to imagine being confident in the Jets doing their part either in any 'over' selection.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 7, 2018 - New York 34 vs. Denver 16, Jets +1, Over 42.5
Dec. 10, 2017 - Denver 23 vs. New York 0, Broncos +1, Under 40.5

Handicapping the Side

If you can't trust either team to routinely move the ball down the field, I don't know how any side play can really get you all that excited. I'm not sold on Denver's decision to go with Rypien being worth about a two-point drop in the line – Denver went from -3 to -1 after the announcement – but I was also not sold on the Broncos deserving of opening up as a -3 road favorite for this game.

The fact that the Broncos were favored at all brought an initial squint with it to make sure that's what I was seeing, but based on their defense it makes sense, and paired with that low total it has got, you can easily see the expected game script this line was based around.

Doesn't mean I have to like it, nor do I have to play it. Not one result would shock me here, as either side could get blown out of the building should multiple turnovers do them in, and a close game either way where the loser couldn't execute late wouldn't be surprising at all.

It's anyone's guess as to what side comes out as the correct one in this game, and really, whether or not either side actually wants to win this game or not. Tanking in Week 4 is a little early, and no one will ever admit it, but these teams know they aren't going anywhere in 2020.

There is no alternative incentive to say “play the spoiler against a hated rival” or anything like that for either side, as it really sets up to be one of those ho-hum TNF games we are treated to a handful of times each season where it's easy to turn off by the early 3rd quarter.

You know by then that the trailing team won't have what it takes to make a run at coming back, and even still, you've then got to count on a bad offense in general to all of a sudden execute well above their mean.

Flip a coin as to which team ends up winning this game, but it's going to finish with a 20-17 score. Neither offense is good enough to sustain those 8+ play drives; they'll need to put up points consistently enough, and as long as there aren't multiple turnovers made by both sides, an ugly TNF game is probably what we get.

Key Injuries

Denver

LB Jeremiah Attaochu: Quad - Out
QB Drew Lock: Shoulder - Out
CB Davontae Harris: Hamstring - Questionable
RB Phillip Lindsay: Foot - Questionable

New York

WR Breshad Perriman: Ankle - Questionable
LB Jordan Willis: Ankle - Questionable
WR Jamison Crowder: Hamstring - Questionable
S Ashtyn Davis: Groin - Doubtful
DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
WR Chris Hogan: Ribs, Knee - Questionable
LB Jordan Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
OT Mekhi Becton: Shoulder - Questionable

**Udog** · 10-04-2020, 09:05 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Detroit

-- The Saints are 13-0-1 ATS (9.11 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 on the road coming off a game where they had a player with 100+ receiving yards

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Washington

-- The Ravens are 0-11-1 ATS (-6.42 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 and as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchups: Buffalo at Las Vegas

-- The Raiders are 10-0-2 OU (7.46 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 coming off a road game where Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New England at Kansas City

-- The Chiefs are 0-11-1 OU (-8.54 ppg) since Oct 31, 2011 at home coming off a road game where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Washington

-- The Ravens are 12-0 OU (6.83 ppg) since Dec 16, 2007 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Cleveland at Dallas

-- The Browns are 11-0-1 OU (12.17 ppg) since Sep 30, 2018 coming off a game where they threw for less than 200 yards.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Oct. 1 - Monday, Oct. 5)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Oct. 1 - Monday, Oct. 5)

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