NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thur., Sep. 24 - Monday, Sep. 28)

[Udog]

[Udog]

Chiefs vs. Ravens Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The AFC Championship game that was “supposed” to happen in the 2019-20 playoffs gets to be played nine months later on MNF, as the defending champs from Kansas City travel to Baltimore.

Remember, it was the Ravens who were the #1 seed in the AFC last year and slipped up vs Tennessee in the Divisional round to not give the world the Baltimore/KC AFC Championship everyone was expecting.

There is a lot less at stake in this actual meeting then there would have been had last year's playoffs played out differently for Baltimore, but that may actually be a good thing for Chiefs backers here.

Three of the last four times the defending champs had a Conference Championship rematch game in the regular season the following year they lost those games outright. Not specifically applicable here, but both organizations know that they'll have to likely overcome this particular foe to get where they ultimately want to go this season, and it would not be shocking to see a big time playoff feel to this game as well.

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Location: Baltimore, MD
Date: Monday, Sept. 28, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

Spread: Ravens -3.5
Money-Line: Ravens -185, Chiefs +165
Total: 54


The Baltimore Ravens have started the season 2-0 and they're listed as favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Baltimore

Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total

If we were to continue down the path of treating this game to something of a fictional AFC Championship rematch game, then it's interesting to note that in those four games that the reigning champs returned to face the team they beat to get there, the 'under' has cashed every single time.

It's not going to specifically apply this year with the Chiefs and Titans not on the dance card together, but treating it in a similar light down this brainstorming path does make quite a bit of sense.

Because when you really think about the game, sure, both QB's are going to get all the accolades and deservedly so, but because of their skills, both teams should essentially come in with a similar mindset from a strategical point of view; limit the time said opposing quarterback is on the field and can hurt them.

That means run the ball, shorten the game, and be comfortable with it because in the end, both sides are plenty comfortable with asking their guy to make that quick scoring drive late if need be. The talent's definitely there for either side to pull it off.

Both defenses are going to want to make sure they keep everything in front of them as much as possible, and that leaves easy running lanes open as well as plenty of space in the flat to work the short game. Again, two things both offenses are plenty comfortable in executing because of the belief it will eventually open up things deep.

With all the talk being about the explosiveness of these offenses, the stronger perception is already going to be siding with the 'over' in this game and there might not be a number that's too high for some just looking to get action down on a high profile MNF game.

The contrarian angle here was always going to be the 'under', and when thought about on top of all those other potential terms laid out in regards to more run plays, leading to longer drives etc, I do believe the 'under' is the only way to look here.

Yes it's the scarier play to pull the trigger on in a contest between the last two league MVP's, but all of that is already part of the number that currently sits out there in the market. But the Ravens defense has held both of their opponents to 16 or fewer points in two games this year, and KC's defensive unit hasn't allowed more than 20 points against in two games. Points easily lost or cast aside in the eye popping headlines constantly created about the QB's.

KC's offense has recently shown that getting into high gear away from home can be tough for them with a 0-4 O/U run going on the road, and the Ravens are on a 1-5 O/U run themselves as a home favorite.

It's a play that's never going to be popular, but that doesn't mean it can't hit. It's not like a 27-24 game between these two can't live up to all the hype it's getting right?

Head-to-Head History

Sept. 22, 2019 - Kansas City 33 vs. Baltimore 28, Chiefs -4.5, Over 52.5
Dec. 9, 2018 - (OT) Kansas City 27 vs. Baltimore 24, Chiefs -6.5, Over 48.5

Handicapping the Side

If this game does indeed live up to half the expectation that's getting thrust upon it, it's going to be a pretty easy game to pass on action on the side and simply take in as a football fan.

There is very little that separates these two teams on paper, and when they meet you hope that they both execute at a high level and let the chips fall where they may.

If forced to make a selection here, I'd end up on the Chiefs only because the line dictates you should with that hook at +3.5, a number that's been settled in all week.

Asking yourself why it hasn't come back down to +3 if most are going to take the hook from a simple numbers standpoint brings even more legitimate concerns as to why staying off the side is quite easy to do.

Taking that hook at +3.5, but when Baltimore appears plenty attractive from a money line angle, there is just little reason to force things.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

LB Dorian O'Daniel: Knee, Ankle - Questionable
CB Charvarius Ward: Hand - Questionable
WR Sammy Watkins: Concussion, Neck - Questionable

Baltimore

G D.J. Fluker: Shoulder - Questionable
S Anthony Levine Sr.: Abdomen - Questionable
DT Justin Madubuike: Knee - Questionable
WR Chris Moore: Finger - Questionable
CB Tavon Young: Knee - Out

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-13-1
Against the Spread 25-22

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 25-21-1
Against the Spread 24-23

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-18-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Panthers (+6, ML +240) at Chargers, 21-16
Lions (+5.5, ML +200) at Cardinals, 26-23
Packers (+3, ML +145) at Saints, 37-30

The largest favorites to cover

Colts (-11.5) vs. Jets, 36-7
Browns (-7) vs. Washington, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Raiders, 36-20
Buccaneers (-6) at Broncos, 28-10
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Cowboys, 38-31

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an under ticket in the Cincinnati Bengals-Philadelphia Eagles battle, congrats. If you were holding an over ticket, my condolences.

The Bengals were leading 23-16 before QB Carson Wentz desperately scrambled for the right corner of the end zone, diving for the pylon with 21 seconds left in regulation to tie the game 23-23. Over bettors everywhere likely said bad words. I, personally, was holding a Bengals +5 ticket, so all of a sudden my smile disappeared, as a potential touchdown in overtime by Philadelphia would sink me after I'd been on the correct side most of the day. Thankfully that scenario didn't play out.

Anyway, neither team did much of anything in the overtime session, never really threatening to score. The Eagles did drive down the field late, and PK Jake Elliott was about to trot out for the 59-yard field goal to win it. However, a false start penalty caused the Eagles to back it up five yards and head coach Doug Pederson elected to punt the ball away and accept the tie.

Oddly enough, these teams who meet every four years have played to a tie in two of the previous four meetings. Remember when Donovan McNabb didn't know that overtime ended in a tie? That was a game on Nov. 16, 2008 in Cincinnati.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week -- Part 2

The Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) were leading 26-10 heading to the fourth quarter over the Chicago Bears. It looked like Atlanta was going to avenge last week's disgusting collapse on the road against the Dallas Cowboys when they blew a 39-24 lead to fall 40-39. The Week 3 Falcons told the Week 2 Falcons, hold my beer. They allowed 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter on their home field, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose consecutive games when leading by 15 or more points in the final quarter. If you plan to bet the Falcons in the future, make sure to play the opponent on the second-half or live betting in the fourth quarter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Denver Broncos (42.5) game, one which saw future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady squaring off against backup QB Jeff Driskel, with QB Drew Lock sidelined due to injury. The game looked like it was going to be a slam-dunk over, as the Bucs led 23-10 at halftime. Over bettors rejoiced. Then we saw a total of five points in the second half, including a scoreless fourth quarter. Ouch.

The second-lowest total (43.5) was in both the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants game and the battle between the Carolina Panthers-Los Angeles Chargers. The 49ers led the Giants 29-9 late in the fourth quarter before RB Jeff Wilson Jr. punched one in from two yards out to push the total just over, 36-9.

The Panthers surprised the Chargers in a field-goal fest. The Panthers settled for a total of five field goals, including four on trips to the red zone. The game featured just three touchdowns, and only one team posted a double-digit point total (Panthers, 12) in a single quarter.

The highest total on the board Sunday didn't disappoint. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks (57) saw the line rise from 55.5 to 57 during the week. It could have gone way higher. The teams were tied 9-9 after the first quarter, and Seattle led 23-15 at halftime. The scoring continued in the second half, as the Seahawks won 38-31, hanging on to the end similar to their Week 2 SNF win. The teams combined for at least 14 points in every quarter in this one.

The first two primetime games saw the total go 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (55) pending. The Miami Dolphins routed their Sunshine State neighbors, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-13. The over was on pace at halftime, with a total of 28 points on the board, but a low-scoring second half send under bettors to the window with a win. The anticipated shootout between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints (52) lived up to the hype despite the fact both WRs Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were sidelined for their respective teams.

So far this season the over is 5-4 (55.5%) across nine primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Broncos slipped to 0-3 when they lost to the Bucs in Week 3. Driskel, the replacement for the injured Lock, was benched in the fourth quarter in favor of QB Brett Rypien, who was just recalled from the practice squad Saturday. Ouch. Jets QB Sam Darnold, meanwhile, had a pair of pick-sixes in a loss to Indianapolis. The offensive play in this Thursday night battle might be so bad that the opening total of 40 might be a bit high.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have scored 35 or more points in each of their three victories, all over results. This will be the second of their five trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season. Seattle won 38-25 in Week 1 as a pick 'em on a total of 49.5. The Dolphins have gotten a couple of extra days to prepare for the Seahawks after topping the Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field last Thursday. That might not be the only advantage the Dolphins face, as they also have the advantage of the heat and humidity of South Florida, a 10 am PT kickoff time for the Seahawks and, of course, the high travel for Seattle.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Patriots square off with the defending champions, who have had a brutal schedule to date. The Chiefs have already faced playoff teams Houston, Baltimore and now New England in three of the first four games, and they had a difficult overtime win on the road against the Chargers in Week 2. The Patriots have a highly-anticipated game for the second time in three weeks. They came up just short in a Week 2 Sunday Night Football battle in Seattle, losing 35-30 as QB Cam Newton was stuffed at the goal line at the gun to end the game. That's how close they are to being 3-0 SU.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The collapsing Falcons take a trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night, getting an extra day to watch the excruciating film from their loss to the Bears. There are a lot of people who feel head coach Dan Quinn could be out of a job soon after his team made NFL history with the two big blown fourth-quarter leads. The Packers are probably the absolute worst opponent for Atlanta to face in Week 4, as they lead the NFL with 40.7 points per game, hitting the over in all three of their outings. In fact, Green Bay games have seen the over hit by at least 12 points in each of the three outings.