NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thur., Sep. 17 - Monday, Sep. 21)

[Udog]

Injury roundup: Patriots' Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry expected to play

It looks like Cam Newton and the New England Patriots will be at full strength against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night.

Patriots wide receivers Julian Edelman (knee) and N'Keal Harry (shoulder) are both expected to play, a source tells NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

Both Edelman and Harry had five receptions in last Sunday's victory over the Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots (1-0) take on the Seahawks (1-0) in Seattle at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Other injury news we're keeping an eye on ahead of Sunday's Week 2 games:


Atlanta Falcons left tackle Jake Matthews (knee) is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play against the Dallas Cowboys, a source tells Rapoport.
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith (neck), his status is much more up in the air. Dallas will make a determination Sunday, but Smith must improve a great deal to get on the field, per Rapoport.

Baltimore Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley (hip) and cornerback Jimmy Smith (hip) are both listed as questionable, but both should play against the Houston Texans, according to Rapoport.
On the Houston side, running back Duke Johnson (ankle) is not expected to play, while wide receiver Brandin Cooks (quad) should be good to go.

Chicago Bears pass-rusher Robert Quinn, who arrived as a big-time free agent this offseason but missed Week 1, is expected to make his debut today vs. the New York Giants, per Rapoport. He was listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Giants wide receiver Golden Tate, listed as questionable after missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury, is expected to play today. He should be at full strength, according to Rapoport.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton, dealing with an AC joint sprain, has a good chance to play, but the team wants to work him out pregame to make sure his ailment has healed enough, a source tells Rapoport.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay hasn't practiced since injuring his hamstring Sept. 9 and is out again today against the Green Bay Packers, but head coach Matt Patricia said Saturday: "He's really close." They'll see how he progresses, but it sounds like Golladay could be back for Week 3, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

Packers right tackle Billy Turner (knee) practiced all week, but his status for today's game against the Lions is very uncertain, a source tells Pelissero. There could be more shuffling for Aaron Rodgers' line, which lost right guard Lane Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week.

[Udog]

NFL odds Week 3: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will face a stern Monday night test at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The SuperBook installed Baltimore as a 3-point favorite.

NFL Week 2 is almost in the books, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups is a massive Monday nighter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 3 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 3 odds

These are the current NFL Week 3 odds, as of September 20.



Dolphins at Jaguars odds

Opening line
Jaguars -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville is 1-1 SU, but cashed in in its first two games, losing to Tennessee 33-30 Sunday but covering as a 7-point road underdog. Miami is out of the gate 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, getting a last-minute touchdown Sunday to cover as a 5.5-point home 'dog in a 31-28 loss to the Bills.

So John Murray and his oddsmaking team at The SuperBook made the Jags modest 2-point favorites at home for the Thursday night tilt, and there was apparently a little early Jacksonville interest, as the line went to Jags -2.5.


Raiders at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Patriots -6.5 and didn’t take much action on it before pulling it down when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said Sunday night. It's The SuperBook's standard practice to take a game down when a team is involved in the Sunday night conttest, as the Patriots were against the Seahawks.

"It's a short week for the Raiders and a tough traveling spot, with them going east in Week 1, then back here for the Monday Night Football game, and then back out to the East Coast for an early kickoff."


Rams at Bills odds

Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Bills are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS), but so are the Rams, who cashed in both games, including a 37-19 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. Although the Rams are playing back east two consecutive weeks, the first move at The SuperBook was toward Los Angeles, from +3.5 to +3 Sunday night.


Texans at Steelers odds

Opening line
Steelers -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night, though Murray expressed some sympathy for Houston, with its tough early-season schedule. "I don’t know what the Texans did to deserve an opening three weeks of at Chiefs, home against Ravens and at Steelers."


49ers at Giants odds

Opening line
Giants +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no move in this game Sunday night at The SuperBook, but Murray said setting the opening number was a little challenging, due to key injuries on both sides. There's concern that Giants running back Saquon Barkley may have torn an ACL in Sunday's loss to the Bears, so he could be lost for the season.

Likewise, 49ers star defensive end is also thought to have a torn ACL suffered in Sunday's win over the Jets. And San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a high ankle sprain, so his status for Week 3 is uncertain.

"Those guys (on the 49ers) are worth a couple points, and then Barkley is worth half-a-point to a point," Murray said, noting The SuperBook probably would've opened the Niners at -6 if not for the injury issues.


Titans at Vikings odds

Opening line
Vikings +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The SuperBook gave Tennessee the nod as short road chalk, but the first move was to the home 'dog Minnesota, as this line moved to Titans -2 Sunday night.


Washington at Browns odds

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Bengals at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
With the opener of 5.5 a relatively dead number, it appears The SuperBook just wanted to see which way bettors would take it. And they took it toward the Eagles, as the line ticked up to -6 Sunday night.


Bears at Falcons odds

Opening line
Falcons -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night, but many observers think the Atlanta sideline should see some movement this week – as in, coach Dan Quinn should be fired. The Falcons blew a 39-24 fourth-quarter lead at Dallas, including allowing an onside kick recovery that led to the Cowboys' game-winning field goal as time expired. That marked the only time Dallas led Sunday.


Jets at Colts odds

Opening line
Colts -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) rolled over visiting Minnesota 28-11 laying 3.5 points Sunday, while New York fell to 0-2 SU and ATS in a 31-13 home loss to San Francisco. It seems like this number is high, but The SuperBook went a little higher still Sunday night, with the first move to Colts -9.5.


Panthers at Chargers odds

Opening line
Chargers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement at The SuperBook on Sunday night, although Los Angeles was certainly impressive as it fell just short to Kansas City in overtime earlier in the day.


Lions at Cardinals odds

Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Another game that opens at 5.5 and quickly moves toward the favorite. Arizona is out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start, and early bettors were impressed enough to help move the line to -6.5 Sunday night.


Buccaneers at Broncos odds

Opening line
Broncos +5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Broncos could very well be without QB Drew Lock, who suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh. So another game that opens 5.5 moved toward the favorite, in this case the visiting Buccaneers, who went to -6 Sunday night.


Cowboys at Seahawks odds

Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Seahawks -4.5 and took some money on Dallas right away," Murray said, noting the game came off the board shortly thereafter, since the Seahawks were playing the Sunday nighter against the Patriots. "There should be good two-way action here. Gotta keep a close eye on the injury report for Dallas."


Packers at Saints odds

Opening line
Saints -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -3.5 and took some money both ways," Murray said of action on Sunday night. "The Packers look like they’re a lot better than we realized coming into the season, but we don’t want to overreact too much to their wins over the Vikings and Lions."


Chiefs at Ravens odds

Opening line
Ravens -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"These are pretty clearly the two best teams in the NFL, and this looks to be the game of the year, at least as far as the regular season is concerned," Murray said. "We have the Ravens as a slightly better team than the Chiefs and the home-field advantage bumps it to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite to open. There was no discussion on this line. Everyone in the room made it Baltimore -3. It looks like all the other books agreed."

And as of late Sunday night, there was no line movement, either.

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 3 Betting Angles

Two weeks of the season has already come and gone, and before you know it we will be at Halloween, eight weeks will have gone by and you'll still be doing preseason prep for the Pac-12.

Week 3 is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season though because the first impressions and subsequent follow ups have already been seen, and perspectives on teams are starting to take some sort of shape. Two games worth of box scores begin to form more data, and yet every season the same things seem to hold true in Week 3 every year.

So it's into the archives for an updated version of a popular piece last year as there is no reason to change. It performed well once again. It's all about the spread record for Week 3 road teams and if they've got a goose egg in one column, you'll want to take it to crack.

Who's Hot

Week 3 road teams that are 0-2 ATS to start the year are 15-4 ATS in Week 3 the past four seasons, including 6-1 ATS a year ago

Brought this one up at the right time a season ago with a nice 6-1 ATS mark this week, and the 2020 season brings us another strong list of candidates. Some of these teams are even up against some perfect 2-0 ATS teams as well.

Who do you Follow?

Cowboys
Jets
Texans
Titans
Panthers
Lions

This means that plays on Dallas (+4.5) at Seattle, the NY Jets (+10.5) at Indianapolis, Houston (+4) at Pittsburgh, Tennessee (-2.5) at Minnesota, Carolina (+7.5) at LA Chargers, and Detroit (+5.5) at Arizona all should be considered for the card.

A couple of those lines still can have the look of ones that are a little too steeped in a two-week snap judgement and different weighing injuries can be. Carolina's going to be missing McCaffrey which is behind that number getting over a TD as part of the latter, and the Jets may not be as bad as they seem if you believe Buffalo's a contender this year and the catching an angry 49ers team who just happened to be 0-1 SU after losing the Super Bowl.

At the same time, as someone who has the Vikings to make the Super Bowl an 0-2 SU start in the fashion it's gone down for the Vikings has not gone over well, and I'm not quite ready to write them off yet either. Tennessee's managed to let two teams hang around when they probably shouldn't have too, and laying points on the road with a team you know has kicking issues never feels comfortable.

The cases for taking the points in five of those six games where it applies is something that won't take much work to have me on board, but there probably isn't much of a hurry to rush to grab these ugly dogs either. Carolina and the Jets are likely to get very little support overall, and I don't know how much market sentiment is left to make many want to back the Lions and Texans led by Matt Patricia and Bill O'Brien respectively.

Dallas is always going to be a public darling regardless, but up against Russell Wilson and his MVP chatter already making the rounds, that overwhelming Dallas money is probably going to be more balanced. That spread isn't likely to be moving too far either way.

But after seven games fit this role a season ago and it produced at that 85% clip, it was time to go right back to it and see how the six games that qualify this year end up treating the bankrolls.

Who's Not

Week 3 road teams that are 2-0 ATS are 4-9 ATS the past four years; 1-0 ATS in 2019

This is not going to have the large volume of plays that the other run does, as of the nine teams that are 2-0 ATS, the majority of them are at home in Week 3.

Who do you Fade?

Packers
Rams
Raiders

But this would imply that fading the Packers (+4.5) vs New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams (+2.5/3) at Buffalo should be other options to be considered, as should looking to go against the Raiders (+6) at New England after they defeated the Saints on Monday Night Football.

Monday's impressive win by the Raiders over the Saints in their Las Vegas home opener could open up the flood gates for plenty of generic Green Bay love as a downgrade on the Saints more then anything, but I'm sure the Raiders may come off that +6 number as well.

The loss for the Saints likely still brings plenty of Packers love, but Patriots backers are probably going to want to look to get that play down sooner rather then later with New England looking just fine through two games of the Cam Newton era.

Finally, playing against the Rams means you are playing on a strong Bills team that's remained undefeated and kept the backdoor open too long for the Dolphins to get the late ATS cover on Sunday. There are worse options every week then having a ticket that's got the Bills at home on it though.

However, it would only be backing the two AFC East teams of these three games that I think I'd end up putting on the card, as even with Packers love expected, I'm still not sure the Saints aren't being valued much higher than they should be.

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 24

MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After spread cover vs. Bills, Dolphins 10-4 vs. line last 14 since early 2019.
Jags now “over” 4 of last 5 as host after Indy opener and 2-0 “over” this season.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


Sunday, Sept. 27

L.A. RAMS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rams now 10-2 vs. spread their last 12 as visitor since late in 2018 campaign, and they have won and covered seven straight in early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone (or London).
Bills 4-6 last ten as Orchard Park chalk.

Tech edge: Rams, based on team trends.


LAS VEGAS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Raiders have now covered last 3 and 6 of last 9 as visitor after opening win at Carolina.
Raiders had closed 2019 “under” 6 of last 7 before “overs” vs. Panthers and Saints.
Into last Sunday night at Seattle, Belichick “under” 21-12 last 33 reg.-season games, also 21-10 as Gillette Stadium reg.-season chalk since 2016.

Tech edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Texans now no covers last 4 as dog after covering 8 of previous 11 in role.
Steel now on 14-5 and 16-6 “under” runs after opener vs. G-Men, and 9-6 vs. spread last 15 at Heinz Field (much of that minus Big Ben LY).

Tech edge: Steelers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

G-Men now no covers last 7 as MetLife dog after opener vs. Steel.
Niners 7-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.

Tech edge: Niners, based on team trends.


TENNESSEE at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Titans entered 2020 on 9-4 spread uptick but have failed to cover first two in 2020.
Vikes “over” 9-4 last 13 reg.-season games.

Tech edge: “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.


WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Browns 0-2 vs. line for Stefanski after non-cover vs. Cincy, and Cleveland now 5-12-1 vs. line since 2019.

Tech edge: Football Team, based on Browns negatives.


CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Cincy now 5-3 as visiting dog since LY (not counting Rams in London) for Taylor and also on 5-1 “over” run.
Birds 5-14 vs. line last 18 at Linc, 4-10 last 13 as home chalk.
Philly was “under” last 7 at home in 2019 before “over” vs. Rams.

Tech edge: Bengals, based on team trends.


CHICAGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears rallied for win in opener but no cover vs. G-Men last week and now 5-14 last 19 on board.
Chicago 1-4 as dog in 2019 but got the W in role in opener vs. Lions.
Falcs closed 2019 on 6-2 SU and spread rush.
Falcs dropped first two SU in 2020 (though did cover at Dallas).

Tech edge: slight to Falcons, based on recent trends.


N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Jets only 3-7 vs. line last ten away (3-6 for Gase) after loss at Buffalo in opener.
NY did cover 5 of last 6 as dog in 2019 before loss vs. Bills, and also no cover as dog last week vs. Niners.
Philip Rivers 5-14 vs. line with Chargers and Colts since late 2018.

Tech edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.


CAROLINA at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Bolts now in new stadium but were 1-8 vs. line their last nine at Carson from late 2018 thru 2019, all prior to cover vs. KC last week.
Bolts also “under” 6-1 last 7 as host since 2019, and were 2-8 LY as chalk, though did squeeze narrowest of covers in Cincy opener.
Panthers on 1-8-1 spread skid after opening losses vs. Raiders and Bucs, though also “over” 14-5 after first two in 2020.

Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” trends and extended Chargers home negatives.


DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Kingsbury now 12-5-1 vs. line with Cards after 2-0 start in 2020.
Note Cards only 0-1 as chalk in 2019, but handled role vs. Football team last week.
Lions on 6-12 spread skid since LY, and “over” 12-6 since 2019 after extended “under” run prior.

Tech edge: Cards and ”Over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


TAMPA BAY at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Broncos 10-4 last 14 vs. points since early 2019 (covered first two in 2020 even though 0-2 SU), and now “under” 19-8 since mid-2018 (Fangio 10-8 “under” since LY).
If Denver a dog here note Fangio 7-2 last 9 in role. Bruce Arians only 6-11-1 vs. line with Bucs, and his teams “over” 29-12 last 41 with Cards & Bucs.

Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends.


DALLAS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Dallas only 8-10 vs. line its last 18 as visitor, though Cowboys 6-1 last 7 as reg.-season dog.
Hawks entered 2020 just 2-7 vs. line last 9 as Seattle chalk.

Tech edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.


GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Saints got money vs. Bucs in opener, though they were only 3-9 previous 12 as Superdome chalk.
Pack 3-0 as dog vs. teams other than 49ers last year.

Tech edge: Packers, based on team trends.


Monday, Sept. 28

KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Chiefs stretched win and cover streak to 10 in opener vs. Texans, though failed to get money vs. Bolts last week.
Andy Reid also 9-2 as dog since 2017, and won close games at Arrowhead (but covered neither) the past two years vs. Baltimore.
Ravens however have won 14 straight reg.-season games SU, covering 11 of last 12.
Last three meetings “over” including LY.

Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Ravens, based on “totals” and team trends.