The bum's college football 2020-2021 season news,trends, picks !

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CC at ULL 07:30 PM

ULL -9.0

U 58.0

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/10/2020 14-19-1 42.65% -3450 Detail
10/09/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/2020 30-23-1 56.48% +2350 Detail
10/02/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/26/2020 19-25-2 43.48% -4250 Detail
09/25/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/19/2020 9-21-0 30.00% -7050 Detail
09/12/2020 17-9-0 65.38% +3550 Detail
09/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/07/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/05/2020 4-2-0 66.67% +900 Detail

TOTALS....101-105-4......49.02%...-72.50

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, Oct. 15

GEORGIA STATE at ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

GSU on 1-7-3 spread skid as road dog since 2018, though did win and cover at home vs. ASU in 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.


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105GEORGIA ST -106 ARKANSAS ST
GEORGIA ST is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.


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Thursday, October 15

Georgia State @ Arkansas St

Game 105-106
October 15, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
71.337
Arkansas St
83.900
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 12
77
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 5
72 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-5); Over


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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

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GEORGIA ST (1 - 1) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 2) - 10/15/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NCAAF

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 15

Georgia State @ Arkansas State

Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games

Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Georgia State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home


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Thursday’s game

Georgia State (1-1) @ Arkansas State (2-2)

— Georgia State split its first two games, losing in OT at Louisiana.
— This is the Panthers’ first road game this season.
— GSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Panthers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia State’s redshirt freshman QB has started twice.
— Panthers are 2-6-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

— Arkansas State is already playing its 5th game; they’re 1-2 vs I-A teams.
— Red Wolves gave up 227-217 rushing yards in their losses to Coastal Carolina, Memphis- they pulled an upset at Kansas State.
— ASU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Red Wolves have 128 returning starts on the offensive line.
— ASU’s plays two QB’s, who have a combined 17 starts.
— Under Anderson, Red Wolves are 18-12 ATS as a home favorite.

— Arkansas State won five of last six series games, but lost 52-38 to GSU last year- Panthers ran the ball for 340 yards, had 722 total yards.
— Panthers lost last three visits to Jonesboro, by 16-14-2 points.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GSU at ARST 07:30 PM

ARST -3.5

U 72.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/15/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/10/2020 14-19-1 42.65% -3450 Detail
10/09/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/2020 30-23-1 56.48% +2350 Detail
10/02/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/26/2020 19-25-2 43.48% -4250 Detail
09/25/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/19/2020 9-21-0 30.00% -7050 Detail
09/12/2020 17-9-0 65.38% +3550 Detail
09/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/07/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/05/2020 4-2-0 66.67% +900 Detail

TOTALS....102-106-4......49.03%...-73.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
421— Allen Robinson, Chi
403— Stefon Diggs, Buff
403— DK Metcalf, Sea
401— Amari Cooper, Dal
397— DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
387— Terry McLaurin, Wash

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,497
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Having length is an advantage and I’ve always been pretty long, but I felt like there was room to … I think what I want to do is at least know that I have it if I need it. I’m not going to try to do it all the time, I’m not trying to get my ball speed into the 190s every time I hit a driver, but at least I know that if I need to do it, I can do it.”
Golfer Rory McIlroy

Friday’s quiz
Which starting QB in the NFL played his college football at Boston College?

Thursday’s quiz
Seattle Mariners are the only major league team is the only one that has never played in a World Series.

Wednesday’s quiz
Six major league teams have never won a World Series.


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Friday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) How would you like to be a fly on the wall at Nick Saban’s house Saturday night, when he is in quarantine while Alabama plays Georgia in the week’s biggest college football game?

Saban and the Alabama AD both tested positive for COVID, so he is stuck at home for a while, and the rules say coaches in the booth cannot communicate with outside places while the game is going on. Hopefully, Mrs Saban takes the dog for a long walk and gives Nick some space.

Part of me says there is no way Saban isn’t texting some student manager and having the kid deliver messages to Steve Sarkisian.

Semi-related side note: Alabama’s basketball coach Nate Oats said Thursday that he had COVID back in July.

12) News Item of the Day: Utah Jazz hired Sergi Olivia away from the 76ers’ front office, to join their coaching staff. Olivia had been the Vice President of Strategy for the Sixers.

This isn’t really big news, but that is a tremendous job title; Vice President of Strategy

I’ve been retired from my job for almost six years now, but I’ve worked in basketball analytics in both college/high school basketball— I’d love to be someone’s Vice President of Strategy. It just sounds so freakin’ important.

11) A new casino that is rumored to have an excellent sportsbook will open in downtown Las Vegas October 28; the Circa will be a 2-story casino with a 3-story sportsbook. It appears as if the top level of the sports ook is a very large swimming pool in front of huge TV screens. They’re billing it as the biggest sportsbook in Las Vegas history.

10) Jets dump RB Le’Veon Bell and the Chiefs jump in and sign him; problem is, Bell hasn’t been a productive player for quite a while. He’s out of excuses now; he better produce in that offense, or his career is history.

9) In September, $748.5M, that’s million with an M, was wagered on sports in New Jersey.

8) Houston Rockets let GM Daryl Morey resign Thursday, rather than fire him- guys don’t quit jobs like that unless they’re jumping to another lucrative gig.

Morey is an MIT graduate, an analytics guy who sparked a rift between the NBA and Chinese government when he tweeted support for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong about this time last year. That cost the NBA a boatload of money in China, and money talks, so Morey walks.

7) Indiana Pacers have never won an NBA title, but four of their head coaches have, three of them after they left Indiana, one before he got there:
— Jack Ramsay, Portland
— Larry Brown, Detroit
— Rick Carlisle, Dallas
— Frank Vogel, Lakers

6) White Sox are interviewing 76-year old Tony Larussa for their open managing job; he last managed in the majors with St Louis, in 2011. He started as a manager with the White Sox way back in 1979.

5) Just when I thought ESPN couldn’t be more annoying, they’re starting to show football games from Newman HS in Louisiana, because Peyton Manning’s nephew is the QB there- the kid is in 10th grade, let him be a kid. He doesn’t need his games shown on national TV.

4) Arkansas State 59, Georgia State 52:
— Said this yesterday; ESPN needs to show more Sun Belt football.
— Arkansas State plays two QB’s; in their last two games, they’re a combined 61-97 for 968 yards and 14 TD’s throwing the ball.
— Total yardage in this game: 609-583, ASU

3) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-2)
— Carlos Correa hit a walk-off homer, series is 3-2 Tampa Bay.
— First five pitchers Houston used in this game are rookies.

2) Braves 10, Dodgers 2 (Atlanta leads 3-1):
— Atlanta broke open a 1-1 tie with six runs in 6th inning.
— Bryse Wilson allowed one hit, one run in six outstanding innings.
— Marcell Ozuna homered twice for the Braves.

1) Before I go, let me settle an argument; Michael Jordan isn’t the best basketball player ever, and neither is Lebron James, though they’re both in the top five.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the best basketball player ever; after his freshman season at UCLA, when the Bruins’ freshman team beat the UCLA varsity by 20, the NCAA outlawed the dunk, a ban that lasted for ten years. (Freshman weren’t allowed on the varsity back then)

When Kareem was a rookie in the NBA with Milwaukee, the Bucks went 56-26 and lost in the Eastern Conference final- it was their 2nd year of existence- they won the NBA title the next year. Kareem may not have a big personality or be the face of a shoe company, but he was the most dominant basketball player ever.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, Oct. 16

SMU at TULANE (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

SMU has won outright last five meetings, covering four of those.
Ponies 8-1 vs. spread in first five games of season since LY.
Though Wave 5-0 as home dog since 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to SMU, based on series trends.


BYU at HOUSTON (ESPN, 9:30 p.m.)

UH finally on the board in 2020 with win over Tulane.
Though BYU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line, it was 0-5 as visiting chalk LY before winning 2020 opener at Navy.

Tech Edge: Slight to Houston, based on extended trends.


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107SMU -108 TULANE
TULANE is 11-33 ATS (-25.3 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.

109BYU -110 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 15-4 ATS (10.6 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.


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Friday October 16

SMU @ Tulane

Game 107-108
October 16, 2020 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
91.796
Tulane
80.192
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
SMU
by 11 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 6 1/2
68
Dunkel Pick:
SMU
(-6 1/2); Under

Brigham Young @ Houston

Game 109-110
October 16, 2020 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
95.331
Houston
94.192
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 1
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 4 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+4 1/2); Over


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Friday, October 16

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SMU (4 - 0) at TULANE (2 - 2) - 10/16/2020, 6:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TULANE is 99-132 ATS (-46.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 10/16/2020, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, October 16

Southern Methodist @ Tulane

Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Southern Methodist is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tulane

Tulane
Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tulane is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home


Brigham Young @ Houston

Brigham Young
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 6 games on the road
Brigham Young is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games


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Friday’s games

SMU (4-0) @ Tulane (2-2)
— SMU scored 42 ppg in winning its three games vs I-A opponents.
— Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— SMU has 92 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mustangs’ senior QB has started 33 games.
— SMU is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a road favorite.

— Tulane split its first four games; they blew a 24-0 lead in one of their losses.
— Green Wave’s last three games went over the total.
— Tulane had a +5 turnover ratio LW, still lost 49-31 in Houston.
— Tulane has 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Green Wave has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulane’s senior QB has started 13 games.
— Green Wave covered its last five games as a home underdog.

— SMU won five in row, eight of last nine series games, with three of last four wins by 4 or fewer points.
— Underdogs covered five of last six series games.
— SMU won three of last four visits here, last two by 27-23/35-31 scores.

BYU (4-0) @ Houston (1-0)
— BYU won its first four games, scoring an average of 43.8 ppg.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU’s junior QB has started 20 games.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.

— Houston beat Tulane 49-31 in its opener LW, despite its minus-5 turnover ratio.
— Houston has 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Houston has 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 10 games.
— Houston is 1-3 ATS in last four games as a home underdog.

— BYU won last two series games, 33-25/47-46; Houston covered both games, which were back in 2013-14.

[StarDust Bum]

SMU vs. Tulane Week 7 Odds, Preview
Jonathan Willis

SMU has picked up right where it left off last year. Sonny Dykes led the Mustangs to their first 10-win season since the program received the death penalty, and they have built off that success with a 4-0 start and a top 20 ranking in both polls coming into Friday night’s game with the Tulane Green Wave.

A win over Tulane this week would set up an enormous AAC battle with No. 8 Cincinnati next Saturday.

BETTING RESOURCES

Week 7 Matchup: AAC
Venue: Yulman Stadium
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Friday, October 16, 2020
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

Spread: SMU -6.5
Money-Line: SMU -215, Tulane +185
Total: 64.5

QB Shane Buechele and SMU will look to improve to 5-0 on Friday when they visit Tulane for a conference game. (AP)

HOW TO HANDICAP SMU-Tulane

The Green Wave are looking for their first conference win of the season. Tulane lost at home to Navy as a six-point favorite back on September 19, and they were blasted by Houston last Thursday. Their two wins came against South Alabama and Southern Miss, but they are just 1-3 ATS as their only cover came in the 66-24 demolition of Southern Miss.

Tulane has yet to play an under game this year. The first game for the Green Wave ended up as a push, but their three most recent games have all gone over the total by at least a touchdown. There were a combined 170 points in Tulane’s last two games, leading to oddsmakers raising the total on Friday night.

A narrow 31-24 win over Texas State as a 24.5-point favorite in Week 1 led to some discounting SMU. However, the Mustangs roared back to smash North Texas and Stephen F. Austin in consecutive weeks, covering the spread with wins of 30 and 43 points.

SMU knocked off defending AAC champions Memphis in its first AAC game two weeks ago, squeaking out a 30-27 victory as a short favorite to move to 3-1 ATS on the year.

SMU is known for its high-octane offense, so the total has been set in the 70s for three of the Mustangs’ previous four games. However, the under has cashed in three of those four games, as SMU’s wins against Texas State, Stephen F. Austin, and Memphis saw a combined score between 55 and 57 points.

BETTING ANALYSIS – Mustangs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Overall: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Shane Buechele led SMU’s renaissance last season, and he is the best quarterback in the AAC. Buechele has been fantastic this year, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 9.5 YPA with ten touchdowns and two interceptions. He has shown some mobility too, carrying the ball 11 times for 84 yards and a touchdown.

The Mustangs had one of the best wide receivers in the nation in Reggie Roberson Jr. Roberson averaged 15.4 YPC in 2018, 18.7 YPC in 2019, and he posted 21.5 YPC this season thanks to a monster game against Memphis on October 3.

Unfortunately, he suffered a season-ending knee injury, so sophomore Rashee Rice and JUCO transfer Danny Gray will look to replace that production.

Tight end Kylen Grayson was a Preseason First Team All-AAC pick, so he should be more involved going forward as well.

Freshman Ulysses Bentley IV has been a home run hitter when he carries the ball, averaging 8.4 YPC thanks to huge games against North Texas and Stephen F. Austin. He was the back-up to T.J. McDaniel coming into the season, but Bentley will carry the load going forward after McDaniel suffered a season-ending injury against Memphis.

This offense is ranked 18th in offensive SP+, but the defense is once again a subpar unit coming in at 78th in defensive SP+. SMU is conceding 5.7 yards per play, and they haven’t been able to get to the quarterback as much as they would like with 11 sacks this season.

UCLA grad transfer Brandon Stephens is one of the national leaders in passes defensed though, with seven break-ups on the season.

BETTING ANALYSIS - Green Wave

Overall: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U

It wasn’t going to be easy to replace Justin McMillan in HC Willie Fritz’s system, and Tulane has struggled to find the same production out of a quarterback.

Keon Howard started the season under center for the Green Wave, but he was benched after completing just 42.1 percent of his passes for 5.2 YPA.

Freshman Michael Pratt replaced the senior in Tulane’s victory over Southern Miss, and he has been a little better, but he is only completing 45.5 percent of his passes for 6.4 YPA.

However, Pratt isn’t as mobile of a quarterback as Howard. Pratt has been sacked six times and is averaging 1.5 YPC, while Howard is averaging 4.4 YPC.

While Fritz will tell you that he doesn’t run the option, he does like to run the ball more than any other program that doesn’t run the option, running the ball on 62.3 percent of plays so far in 2020.

Along those lines, Tulane uses a stable of running backs. Four different players have at least 25 carries this season, led by Cameron Carroll and Tyjae Spears. Those four backs have combined to average 6.1 YPC on the year, but Spears suffered a season-ending knee injury so Amare Jones and Stephon Huderson will see more action.

The Green Wave don’t throw the ball much, so the only player with at least 100 receiving yards is sophomore Jha’Quan Jackson. No one on Tulane has more than eight receptions, making it impossible for defenses to key on just one guy.

Tulane is ranked 82nd in defensive SP+ coming into Friday’s game. The Green Wave have done a solid job stopping the run, allowing just 3.0 YPC, but the pass defense has been a mess. Opponents are averaging 9.0 YPA against this secondary through four games.

Preseason First Team All-AAC DE/LB Patrick Johnson has been a force with five sacks on the year, and DE Cameron Sample has played well alongside him.

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING

HEAD-TO-HEAD

The all-time record between these two teams is 13-13. SMU has never been ahead in this series, but the Mustangs have won five straight and can take the lead over the Green Wave for the first time ever in 2020. The last seven games in this series have seen at least 50 points scored.

LAST SEASON

SMU capitalized on Tulane mistakes to beat the Green Wave 37-20 in last year’s season finale. The Green Wave had two fumbles, a missed field goal, and turned the ball over on downs four times to lose by 17 points despite outgaining the Mustangs 465-377.

Tulane ran the ball 53 times for 223 yards and two touchdowns on this defense, while Justin McMillan completed 22 of 37 passes for 242 yards. Buechele didn’t put up gaudy numbers, completing just 15 of 27 passes for 180 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, but it was enough to get the victory.

NOTABLE BETTING TRENDS

-- SMU is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games

-- The under has cashed in four straight games when Tulane has been a home underdog

-- The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games between these two programs

[StarDust Bum]

BYU vs. Houston Week 7 Odds, Preview
Joe Nelson

After Sun Belt games Wednesday and Thursday in college football this week, Friday night offers a matchup with more national relevance as BYU visits Houston in a big non-conference game in a year where there won’t actually be many non-conference games.

Houston won its long-awaited opener last Thursday night while independent BYU is 4-0 and climbing the national rankings. Here is a look at a big Friday night non-conference game between two undefeated national long shots.

BETTING RESOURCES

Week 7 Matchup: Non-Conference
Venue: TDECU Stadium
Location: Houston, TX
Date: Friday, October 16, 2020
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

Spread: BYU -4.5
Money-Line: BYU -200, Houston +175
Total: 62.5

The BYU defense has looked very impressive this season, holding opponents to 11 points per game this season. (AP)

HOW TO HANDICAP BYU-Houston

BYU has outscored its opposition 175-44 this season but it has not been a formidable path. BYU will now be on the road for the first time since the Labor Day blowout win at Navy to start the season.

BYU is 3-1 ATS with the only miss last week’s 27-20 win over UTSA as a nearly five-touchdown favorite. BYU was just 2-5 ATS on the road last season, losing S/U in four of those games.

Houston had a 5-0 turnover deficit in a sloppy opening effort last week after a series of cancellations in September. Houston still won and covered however, coming back from an early 24-7 deficit to win by 18 vs. Tulane with a dominant production edge.

Last year in Dana Holgorsen’s first season back at Houston they surprisingly went 1-4 S/U & ATS at home with a combined total of 173 points allowed in four FBS home games.

NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS?

BYU has only one other road game on the schedule this season with a November trip to Boise State. The BYU Cougars are a serious threat to finish undefeated as that is likely the only game that they could possibly be an underdog in.

If the current schedule holds and BYU finished 10-0, they likely wouldn’t have the weight to be considered for a national playoff spot but undefeated teams are already scare in 2020 as it isn’t completely out of the question.

Houston will have several difficult AAC games coming up and three of the four biggest games will be on the road. A win here would certainly catapult the Houston Cougars to the forefront of the conference and into the national rankings next week.

The AAC has several quality teams this season including two top 17 squads in the current rankings as the national opportunity for a team running the table in the American is likely better than in a standard schedule season.

BETTING ANALYSIS – BYU

Overall: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

The numbers are very impressive for BYU with 859 rushing yards in four games, averaging 5.0 yards per rush with sophomore Tyler Allgeier leading the way.

Junior quarterback Zach Wilson has already thrown for 1,241 yards with eight touchdowns, averaging a whooping 12.3 yards per attempt as big plays have been common. Wilson is completing passes at an over 81 percent rate so far this season and his 208.6 QB Rating ranks third nationally.

BYU is fifth nationally in allowing just 251 yards per game and that average was significantly stronger before allowing 359 yards last week to UTSA. Two touchdowns against BYU and significant yardage did come in the fourth quarter which BYU entered leading 21-6, but the Cougars did have their worst showing of the season last week.

BYU is still allowing only 2.5 yards per rush this season with a veteran linebacker corps that has been impressive.

Kalani Sitake took over for Bronco Mendenhall starting in the 2016 season. BYU was 9-4 that season and then reversed that record for a rare losing season in Provo in 2017.

The past two seasons BYU has finished 7-6 as Sitake is 31-25 S/U and 29-27 ATS in his career. BYU is 11-13 S/U on the road under Sitake but 15-9 ATS, including 10-2 ATS as a road underdog, but just 6-6 S/U and 5-7 ATS as a road favorite.

BETTING ANALYSIS - Houston

Overall: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U

In his first season at Houston Dana Holgorsen fell well short of expectations finishing 4-8 despite a significant buzz after what felt like a coup getting him to leave the Big XII for the AAC. A tough schedule, needing to change quarterbacks with D’Eriq King opting to transfer, and the normal challenges of a transition season added up.

Houston was a successful rushing team last season posting more than 2,200 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. Surprisingly in the opener the ground game was somewhat bottled up, posting 157 yards but on 43 carries, though with four rushing touchdowns.

Clayton Tune took over last season at quarterback with mixed results and his 2020 opener offered the same. He threw for 319 yards and hit several big plays but had three turnovers, two of which led to defensive touchdowns in the first six minutes of the game.

As expected, Marquez Stevenson was the team’s top receiver last week with a strong 2020 debut and his 97-yard kickoff return touchdown will be an impressive addition to his NFL draft reel. Tune was sacked four times as the offensive line is likely a work in progress after losing its leader Josh Jones to the NFL last spring.

Knowing that 14 of the 31 points allowed to Tulane were directly off turnovers, the 2020 debut of the Houston defense looks impressive. Houston held Tulane to only 211 yards and 1.6 yards per rush. Tulane did feature an inexperienced quarterback that struggled however as the jury may still be out given that Houston allowed 34 points per game last season.

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING

HEAD-TO-HEAD

These programs have met twice with similar results in a pair of meetings in 2013 and 2014. BYU won at Houston the first year 47-46 and at home the second year 33-25, falling short of a double-digit favorite spread in both instances.

NOTABLE BETTING TRENDS

-- BYU is 6-6 S/U and 5-7 ATS as a road favorite under Sitake including 1-5 ATS since the start of last season.

-- BYU is 31-38 ATS as a road favorite since 1997 and just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games as a favorite in any venue since the start of last season.

-- Houston is just 11-39 S/U and 22-28 ATS as a home underdog since 1993, including going 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS last season.

-- Holgorsen went just 3-13 S/U and 5-9-2 ATS as a home underdog at West Virginia.

-- Houston is on a 21-8 ATS run as an underdog since 2013, but most of that success was in road games.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SMU at TULN 06:00 PM

SMU -6.5

O 65.5

[StarDust Bum]

BYU at HOU 09:30 PM

HOU +3.0

U 61.5

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/16/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
10/15/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/10/2020 14-19-1 42.65% -3450 Detail
10/09/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/2020 30-23-1 56.48% +2350 Detail
10/02/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/26/2020 19-25-2 43.48% -4250 Detail
09/25/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/19/2020 9-21-0 30.00% -7050 Detail
09/12/2020 17-9-0 65.38% +3550 Detail
09/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/07/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/05/2020 4-2-0 66.67% +900 Detail

TOTALS....103-109-4......48.58%...-84.50

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack
— Astros 7, Rays 4— Houston forces a Game 7.
— Dodgers 7, Braves 3— Seager homered twice for LA.
— BYU 43, Houston 26— BYU improves to 5-0.
— SMU 37, Tulane 34 OT— Mustangs stay unbeaten.
— In the Dodger game, Will Smith hit a homer off of Will Smith.
— Clippers named Tyronn Lue their new head coach.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,987
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It’s not a very good number — and a lot of it’s not all defensively. It’s points on the board and we’ve got to do a good job of that, and how you do that is make them kick more field goals, got to do a better job in field-position-type things. As you see, the scoring is up in the league, but it still makes me sick.”
Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, pointing a finger at the Jets’ offense

Saturday’s quiz
How many black keys are found on a traditional piano?

Friday’s quiz
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan played his college football at Boston College.

Thursday’s quiz
Seattle Mariners are the only major league team is the only one that has never played in a World Series.


************************

Saturday’s Den:

Looking at the successful but very unusual coaching career of Larry Brown
Larry Brown needs to write a book; he’s had a fascinating career, changing jobs a lot, which is a huge understatement. Coach Brown is 80 now; his mom lived to 106. Here is a brief outline of his coaching stops, most of which were very successful.

1972-74) Carolina Cougars, ABA— Went 104-64 in two years; some of his players were Joe Caldwell, Ed Manning (Danny’s father), Billy Cunningham.

1974-79) Denver Nuggets, ABA/NBA— Went 125-43 with Denver in the ABA, 126-91 in the NBA; he had David Thompson, Dan Issel, Paul Silas, Mack Calvin.

1979-81) UCLA Bruins— Went 42-17 in two seasons, lost the 1980 national title game 59-54 to Louisville. But the NCAA vacated these wins because they used two ineligible players during these two seasons.

1981-83) New Jersey Nets— Went 91-67 in two years, then left. He did this more than once.

1983-88) Kansas Jayhawks— Went 135-44 in five years, won the 1988 national title behind star Danny Manning (his dad Ed played for Brown’s Carolina Cougars).

Just as soon as he won the national title, Brown bolted back to pro ball……..

1988-92) San Antonio Spurs— Went 153-131 over 3.5 years, was canned during the 4th year. The next year, San Antonio replaced him with Jerry Tarkanian.

1992-93) Los Angeles Clippers— At one point during his career, I suggested that he might change jobs during a TV timeout; we’d come back and he’d be coaching the other team. It didn’t seem impossible.

He went 64-53 in 1.5 seasons; I mean, the guy won all the time, but never stayed anywhere.

1993-97) Indiana Pacers— Went 190-138 in four seasons, then 22-16 in playoff games, losing twice in Eastern Conference finals.

1997-2003) Philadelphia 76ers— Six years had to feel like an eternity, but he was coaching Allen Iverson. Sixers went 255-205 under Brown, 28-30 in playoff games, losing the 2001 Finals.

2003-05) Detroit Pistons— Won the NBA title the first year, lost in Finals the second, then just like that, he was gone.

2005-06) New York Knicks— Went 23-59 in one very forgettable season.

2008-11) Charlotte Bobcats— Went back to his Carolina basketball roots, went 88-104, made the playoffs the 2nd year, left 28 games (9-19) into the third year.

2012-16) SMU Mustangs— Went 85-39 at SMU, got them to the NCAA’s and to an NIT Final Four, but just like UCLA, he also ran afoul of the NCAA, and left unexpectedly.

— Brown was a good point guard; he was the MVP of the first-ever ABA All-Star Game
— Brown won a national title in the NBA and in college ball, the only guy to do that.
— Brown played for Dean Smith in college at North Carolina, was a very good point guard; his story is unique in basketball- he and his family must be great at packing.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KU at WVU 12:00 PM
WVU -21.0
U 50.0
+500 +500

USF at TEM 12:00 PM
TEM -14.0
U 52.5
+500 +500

LIB at SYR 12:00 PM
SYR +3.0
O 53.0
+500 +500

PITT at MIA 12:00 PM
PITT +13.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

NAVY at ECU 12:00 PM
ECU +3.0
O 55.0
+500 +500

AUB at SOCAR 12:00 PM
SOCAR +2.5
O 53.0
+500 +500

UK at TENN 12:00 PM
TENN -6.5
U 44.5
+500 +500

CLEM at GT 12:00 PM
GT +27.0
U 64.5
+500 +500

TXST at USA 12:00 PM
TXST +4.5
O 57.0
+500 +500

WKU at UAB 01:30 PM
UAB -12.0
U 44.0
+500 +500

ARMY at UTSA 01:30 PM
UTSA +9.0
O 48.0
+500 +500

LOU at ND 02:30 PM
ND -16.5
U 61.5
+500 +500

UCF at MEM 03:30 PM
UCF -3.0
U 75.5
+500 +500

MISS at ARK 03:30 PM
ARK +1.5
U 76.5
+500 +500

EKY at TROY 03:30 PM
TROY -30.5
U 60.0
+500 +500

DUKE at NCST 03:30 PM
DUKE +4.0
O 58.5
+500 +500

UVA at WAKE 04:00 PM
UVA -2.5
U 57.5
+500 +500

MASS at GASO 04:00 PM
GASO -31.0
U 62.5
+500 +500

UNT at MTU 05:00 PM
MTU -6.0
U 73.0
+500 +500

MRSH at LT 06:00 PM
MRSH -13.5
O 49.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

EVENING UNDER THE LIGHTS:

UNC at FSU 07:30 PM
UNC -13.5
U 65.5
+500 +500

UGA at ALA 08:00 PM
ALA -6.0
O 57.0
+500 +500

BC at VT 08:00 PM
VT -13.0
U 62.0
+500 +500