Announcement

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 01:36 PM

235S ALABAMA -236 SOUTHERN MISS
SOUTHERN MISS are 51-32 ATS (15.8 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.

237ARKANSAS ST -238 MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS are 28-12 ATS (14.8 Units) as an favorite of 10.5-21 since 1992.

239SMU -240 TEXAS ST
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) on the road when the total is 63.5+ in the last 3 seasons.

241MIDDLE TENN ST -242 ARMY
ARMY is 95-123 ATS (-40.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 01:37 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 3

Central Arkansas @ UAB

Game 247-248
September 3, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Arkansas
66.597
UAB
74.676
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 8
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UAB
by 14 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Arkansas
(+14 1/2); Under

South Alabama @ Southern Miss

Game 235-236
September 3, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Alabama
68.132
Southern Miss
74.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern Miss
by 6
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern Miss
by 15 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
South Alabama
(+15 1/2); Over

Saturday, September 5

Middle Tennessee St @ Army

Game 241-242
September 5, 2020 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Middle Tennessee
75.413
Army
72.292
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Middle Tennessee
by 3
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Army
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Middle Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under

SMU @ Texas State

Game 239-240
September 5, 2020 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
80.980
Texas State
69.149
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
SMU
by 12
75
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 22
63
Dunkel Pick:
Texas State
(+22); Over

Arkansas St @ Memphis

Game 237-238
September 5, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
81.119
Memphis
92.461
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 11 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 20 1/2
69
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(+20 1/2); Over

Monday, September 7

Brigham Young @ Navy

Game 243-244
September 7, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
90.579
Navy
86.154
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 1 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(-1 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 01:39 PM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S ALABAMA (2 - 10) at SOUTHERN MISS (7 - 6) - 9/3/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, September 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS ST (8 - 5) at MEMPHIS (12 - 2) - 9/5/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SMU (10 - 3) at TEXAS ST (3 - 9) - 9/5/2020, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIDDLE TENN ST (4 - 8) at ARMY (5 - 8) - 9/5/2020, 1:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BYU (7 - 6) at NAVY (11 - 2) - 9/7/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 183-134 ATS (+35.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 183-134 ATS (+35.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 101-62 ATS (+32.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 01:39 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday’s game
South Alabama @ Southern Mississippi
— Southern Miss has been over .500 the last five years, losing three of their last four bowls; they’ve been minus in turnovers the last seven years (-60).
— Eagles have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense. USM has a senior QB with 22 career starts; their offensive line has 93 career starts- 8 of their top 10 OL are juniors/seniors.
— Last three years, Eagles are 8-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.

— South Alabama has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense; they’re 9-27 SU the last three years.
— Jaguars have a soph QB who started four games LY; their OL has 66 returning starts.
— Under coach Campbell, USA is 5-7 ATS as a road underdog.

These teams haven’t met in the last five seasons.

Saturday’s games
Arkansas State @ Memphis
— Arkansas State won its bowl LY after their coach’s wife died before the season started; they’re 47-30 SU in six years under Anderson.
— Red Wolves have 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense; their OL has 128 career starts, with all five starters back.
— ASU has both its QBs back from LY; Bonner played the first four games, hurt his thumb and won done for the year. Backup Hatcher played the last nine games, throwing 27 TD’s with 10 INT’s.
— Under Anderson, Red Wolves are 6-8 ATS as road underdogs.

— Memphis Tigers have a new coach, their OL coach the last three years. Their new DC is Mike MacIntyre, formerly a head coach at Colorado.
— Memphis has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense; their OL has 57 returning starts.
— Tigers have a senior QB who threw for 4,014 yards LY.
— Last two years, Memphis was 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.

These teams haven’t met in the last five seasons.

SMU @ Texas State
— SMU has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense; they were 10-3 LY, their best season in a long time, but they lost their bowl game 52-28.
— Mustangs’ OL has 92 returning starts; they have a senior QB who has started 32 games, beginning his career at Texas.
— Last three years, SMU is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.

— Texas State went 3-9 in Spivital’s first year as HC; they’ve got 8 starters back on offense, only 4 on defense.
— Bobcats’ OL has 71 returning starts, as they try to run the ball better this year. State has a junior QB who started 12 games LY, but they also have a Memphis transfer who was battling him for the starting job.
— Last four years, Texas State is 5-13 ATS as a home underdog.

Last year, SMU (-18) ran the ball for 390 yards in a 47-17 win over Texas State.

Middle Tennessee @ Army
— Middle Tennessee missed a bowl LY for first time in five years; they’ve got 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense from LY’s 4-8 team.
— Blue Raiders have 47 returning starts on their OL, but four returning starters; their junior QB started 12 games LY- he runs better than he throws.
— Since 2013, MTSU is 11-15-1 ATS as a road underdog, 4-5 the last two years.

— Army was 5-8 LY, after going 21-5 in 2017-18; Cadets have 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cadets have returning starts on the OL, with two senior starters; their junior QB has five career starts.
— Last five years, Army is 9-15 ATS as a home favorite.

These teams haven’t met in the last five seasons.

Monday’s game
BYU @ Navy
— BYU is 27-25 in four years under Sitake; they’ve got 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cougars’ OL has 110 retuning starts; their junior QB has 16 career starts but is no lock to keep the job- they used two other QB’s last year.
— BYU was 0-5 ATS as a road favorite LY; under Sitake, they’re 3-7 in that role.

— Navy went 11-2 LY, beat Kansas State in their bowl game; they’ve had 8 straight winning seasons.
— Middies have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense; their OL has 29 returning starts- one of their linemen died in February. Navy will have a new QB this season.
— Last two years, Navy is 7-3-1 ATS at home.

These teams haven’t met in the last five seasons.

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 01:41 PM

NCAAF

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 3

Central Arkansas @ Alabama-Birmingham
Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Central Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama-Birmingham is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
Alabama-Birmingham is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

South Alabama @ Southern Miss
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Alabama's last 6 games on the road
South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 5 games
Southern Miss is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

Friday, September 4

Colgate @ Western Michigan
Colgate
Colgate is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colgate is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Western Michigan
Western Michigan is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Western Michigan's last 7 games at home

Saturday, September 5

Eastern Kentucky @ Marshall
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Marshall
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Marshall's last 8 games at home
Marshall is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

Middle Tennessee @ Army
Middle Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Middle Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Middle Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Army
Army is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Army's last 5 games at home

Southern Methodist @ Texas State
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Southern Methodist's last 13 games
Texas State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas State's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas State's last 10 games at home

Houston Baptist @ North Texas
Houston Baptist
Houston Baptist is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston Baptist is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
North Texas
North Texas is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Texas's last 7 games at home

Arkansas State @ Memphis
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games on the road
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Memphis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Stephen F. Austin @ Texas El Paso
Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Stephen F. Austin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Texas El Paso
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas El Paso's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas El Paso's last 8 games at home

Monday, September 7

Brigham Young @ Navy
Brigham Young
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brigham Young's last 5 games on the road
Brigham Young is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Navy
Navy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Navy is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-02-2020, 01:49 PM

South Alabama at Southern Miss Preview
Joe Nelson

FCS college football kicked off last weekend and this week FBS action is finally here as a pair of schools just over 80 miles apart will meet in the unexpected season opener.

The Sun Belt and Conference USA plan to play nearly full schedules this season and despite several cancellations and adjustments, both conferences have teams filling out the ‘soft’ opening of the 2020-21 season this week.

Here is a look at the first FBS game of the 2020 season between South Alabama and Southern Miss.

Betting Resources

Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Venue: M.M Roberts Stadium (30% Capacity Open ~10,800)
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Time-TV: Thursday, September 3, 9:00 p.m. ET - CBSSN
Last Meeting: No previous meeting

Line Movements

Point-Spread: Southern Miss -15½
Money-Line: Southern Miss -715, South Alabama +480
Over-Under Total: 53½

South Alabama vs. Southern Miss Analysis

Handicapping the Golden Eagles

Southern Miss started last season 7-3 with two of those defeats in SEC West stadiums as the Golden Eagles were in contention in Conference USA. The Golden Eagles dropped the final two games of the regular season and then were blown out by Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl to fall to 7-6.

Jay Hopson is in his fifth season with the program as the head coach and has had a winning record every season, including a top three finish in Conference USA West every season. The Golden Eagles haven’t had a bowl win since his first season in 2016 however.

Deciphering probable personnel for a fundamental handicapping approach in college season openers always requires some guesswork and the challenge is escalated ahead of the 2020 season following the absence of spring practices along with limited summer camps.

The expectation that teams will be managing potential virus cases as well with no obligation to publicly report that information also lurks as an added hurdle this season.

The quarterbacks are established for both of these teams which appear to have a bit more returning production on the offensive end and similar experience levels overall for both programs.

Southern Miss should have an advantage in pass rushing in this matchup as the veteran South Alabama offensive line has appeared better suited for run blocking. A quick tempo in the spread offense will be expected for the Jaguars but negative plays will need to be avoided to keep the downs and distances reasonable.

The Southern Miss defense had 10 interceptions last season despite finishing the season towards the bottom nationally with a -11 turnover margin and avoiding interceptions will be critical for both teams in this outcome.

Jack Abraham is the face of the Southern Miss football season as a redshirt senior with two seasons under his belt. He has been very accurate in his career but traded some efficiency for greater production from 2018 to 2019 despite finishing with nearly identical ratings both seasons.

His arm strength and accuracy is mostly utilized in short routes and he is undersized to be considered a next level prospect. He was named to the preseason All-Conference USA team and if he stays healthy, he should pass up Brett Favre for third on the school’s all-time passing list.

Handicapping the Jaguars

Cephus Johnson led South Alabama early last season at quarterback but was eventually replaced by then freshman Desmond Trotter. Johnson transferred in January as Trotter is presumed to be leading the team after providing an offensive boost for the Jaguars in the final four games last season.

Trotter has good size and was viable as a rusher and a passer last season with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions while also rushing for 197 yards, mostly in only four games.

The Jaguars scored 26 points per game in those four contests including the season finale upset over Arkansas State, after the team averaged just over 11 points per game in going winless in the first seven FBS games of the season.

This figures to be a critical season for South Alabama and head coach Steve Campbell who has gone 5-19 in his first two seasons with the Jaguars. Campbell was hired after back-to-back 10-win seasons at FCS Central Arkansas, replacing Joey Jones who had led the program for nine years and into the FBS level transition in 2012.

South Alabama has 11 games on the schedule this season with upcoming non-conference games with Tulane and UAB at home in September before the eight-game Sun Belt slate.

Inside the Numbers

Southern Miss has 11 games still on the schedule but won’t play again until September 19 after this game. That will be a big home date with Louisiana Tech that figures to play a role in the West division race.

Last season Southern Miss played one game vs. Sun Belt competition, a 47-42 victory at Troy. Abraham threw for 463 yards in what was an upset win as Troy was a 3-point home favorite last September.

South Alabama did face UAB last September, the leader of the Conference USA West division where Southern Miss resides. UAB dominated that game as a 12-point favorite winning 35-3 even without scoring in the final 21 minutes.

In a challenging comparison to measure, UAB lost 37-2 at Southern Miss last season as a 7-point underdog last November. UAB would rally to win the next three however and took the division title as Southern Miss faltered at the end of the season.

Key Matchups

With a spread over two touchdowns, South Alabama has some potential to be a double-digit underdog with a rushing edge given that the Golden Eagles gained just 3.5 yards per rush last season and barely eclipsed 1,500 yards for the season on the ground.

Abraham isn’t a threat to make plays in the running game and he had two different four interception games last season.

WR Quez Watkins was a 6th round NFL draft pick for Abraham to throw to last season and his absence will be felt.

It will remain to be seen if the emergence Trotter late last season was a result of the schedule and a challenge to prepare for in the late season Sun Belt slate for South Alabama’s opponents or if he really is a substantial upgrade to for the Jaguars on offense.

It will be a welcome sight to see college football starting with the first head-to-head FBS game of the season, even if this isn’t one of the prime time power conference battles normally in this slot the first week of the season.

With most of the non-conference games vs. major conference teams eliminated for schools like South Alabama and Southern Miss the opportunity to compile a better than usual record is ahead and the importance of this opener is significant on both sides Thursday night.

South Alabama-Southern Miss Betting Trends

-- Southern Miss has won its home opener in three of the past four seasons under Hopson but all three wins were as a massive favorite vs. FCS competition.

-- Against FBS competition Southern Miss is only 5-11 ATS as a home favorite since Hopson took over in 2016.

-- South Alabama hasn’t won a road game since October 2017, before Campbell arrived to Mobile.

-- The Jaguars are 5-6 ATS on the road in his two seasons, allowing at least 28 points in every one of those games.

Central Arkansas at UAB

ESPN3 will offer the opener for Central Arkansas and UAB as well on Thursday night.

Central Arkansas was on center stage last weekend, beating Austin Peay in the first FCS game of the season 24-17. The Bears had a 460-333 yardage edge but failed in several scoring chances while falling behind 10-0 before outscoring Austin Peay 24-7 the rest of the way.

Down 17-16, Central Arkansas completed a 78-yard drive for the win (and cover) with 34 seconds to go, getting the two-point conversion as well, and getting an interception after a late desperation drive for Austin Peay had a bit of life across midfield.

UAB is playing at Miami next Thursday for a prominent FBS opportunity as this could be a dangerous game facing a team with a game under its belt already. The Blazers nearly were upset vs. FCS Alabama State to start last season, winning 24-19 while failing to top 300 yards as a 40-point favorite.

The Blazers would go on to win a second straight division title however in Conference USA and returns a defense that should again be among the top units in the conference.

Tyler Johnston is an experienced quarterback with mobility and the offensive line and receiving corps offer experience while if RB Spencer Brown can stay healthy he can be one of the top rushers in the conference.

UAB was dealt great tragedy ahead of the season as 19-year-old freshman linebacker Allen Merrick died in mid August, a few months after safety Jamari Smith died in May as the Blazers will have their memory to play for as a uniting driver for the season.

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur., Sep. 3 - Mon., Sep. 7)

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur., Sep. 3 - Mon., Sep. 7)

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