Announcement

**Udog** · 07-09-2020, 11:01 PM

2020 Big 12 Betting Preview, Picks, Strategies
Marc Lawrence

Four Is Enough

When Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard won the Big 12 Conference Offensive Player of the Year award last season it snapped a four-year stranglehold on the award by the Oklahoma Sooners.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has won the most individual awards in the 23-year history of the Big 12 with 46. Kansas State is second (34), followed by Texas (31), Oklahoma State (21), Baylor (18), Iowa State (14), TCU (9), Kansas (8), Texas Tech (8) and West Virginia (7).

When Twelve Means 12

Four Big 12 teams have left the conference within the last decade. With it the conference has the least amount of teams of all of the Power Five conferences (10). The other four have as follows: PAC-12 (12), ACC (14), Big Ten (14), and SEC (14). “The Big 12 has 10 and the Big Ten has 14, so you know some of us are just numerically challenged,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby says.

Since the Big 12 and PAC-12 neighbor one another, some type of merging of the two to form a Super Conference makes some sense. Our suggestion would be to start with Utah, who fits like a glove and has six seasons under the direction of head coach Kyle Whittingham where they mounted at least eight wins. The Utes would also bring a decent athletic program to the table and it is somewhat regional to the rest of the Big 12. In addition, Colorado would pair up with the Utah to become a nice fit. As would Arizona and Arizona State.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

BAYLOR
TEAM THEME: 2020 AM

2020 Recruit Rank: 54
Ret Starters: Offense - *7 / Defense - 2
RPR: Total: 108 (51 Offense / 127 Defense)

It’s said that with success comes a price, and that cost is oftentimes steeped with regret. For the Bears, their meteoric rise came at the cost of losing head coach Matt Rhule to the NFL. Today they are forced to make way for a moment of hard truths, or as they call it in Waco these days, life AM – After Matt. With it, changes abound under new head coach Dave Aranda, considered one of the top defensive minds in the nation. In addition, new OC Larry Fedora, the former North Carolina head coach, will feature a running spread attack and high-tempo schemes. Rhule got out of Dodge in time as seniors started 53.2% of their games, the 6th-largest percentage in the nation.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Baylor has produced 5 winning records in the last 24 years in conference games.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. TCU (10/24)

IOWA STATE
TEAM THEME: IT’S GETTING DARK IN HERE

2020 Recruit Rank: 46
Ret Starters: Offense - *5 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 52 (71 Offense / 42 Defense)

Last year we drew this analogy about ISU when we stated that games are won or lost in the offseason when nobody is watching. It was a focal part of ISU’s ‘Win In The Dark’ mantra. The problem for Matt Campbell and his Cyclones this season is the lights were turned out with nobody around thanks to the pandemic crisis, drastically impairing all team workouts. Adding to the concern is the offense must replace almost 150 career starts. However, QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and TE’s Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen are among the best at their position in the conference, and they’re back as the core of ISU’s record-setting offense in 2019 returns. Interesting times in Ames, for sure.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
ISU is one of two schools in the Big 12 (Oklahoma) to make an appearance in the College Football Playoff poll each of the last three seasons.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Iowa (9/12)

KANSAS
TEAM THEME: SEEING THROUGH THE PHOG

2020 Recruit Rank: 57
Ret Starters: Offense - 6 / Defense - 5
RPR: Total: 126 (115 Offense / 117 Defense)

In his first season as the head coach at Kansas, Les Miles led the Jayhawks to a three-win season, including three close-call losses by fewer than six points. Not bad for a program that hasn’t won more than three games in a season for over a decade. They also snapped a 48-game away losing skid against FBS foes with a win at Boston College last season. Nonetheless, the win total for the 2020 season is three, the lowest in the Big 12 with the next closest team at 5.5 wins. Don’t forget, OC Brent Dearmon, a Gus Malzahn disciple, did a fine job when he took over midway during the season last year as the Jayhawks’ offense improved 61 YPG.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Kansas ranked No. 128 in 3rd Down Conversion Defense and No. 130 (worst) in Fewest Fumbles Recovered last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at West Virginia (10/24)

KANSAS STATE
TEAM THEME: STARTING FROM SCRATCH

2020 Recruit Rank: 51
Ret Starters: Offense - *3 / Defense - 6
RPR: Total: 76 (80 Offense / 67 Defense)

OMG. The Wildcats lose every single one of their starts from last year's offensive line and 159 career-starts overall. No line in the country is dealing with this kind of an overhaul. Having seniors start the second-most amount of games in the FBS last season (59.6%) certainly adds to this year’s tight spot. Rest assured, though, having Chris Klieman as K-State’s head coach will certainly help. He’s a winner, as the Stat You Will Like below confirms. Finally, in perhaps the Yin and Yang stat of the year, KSU was No. 1 (best) in the nation in Red Zone Offense last season but No. 130 (worst) in Red Zone Defense. They were also No. 2 in 3rd Down Conversion Defense.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Klieman is 77-11 the last six years at the Division 1 (FBS and FCS) level.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at West Virginia (9/26)

OKLAHOMA
TEAM THEME: QB OR NOT QB

2020 Recruit Rank: 11
Ret Starters: Offense - 8 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 82 (103 Offense / 47 Defense)

The quarterback march continues in Norman where former 5-star redshirt freshman QB Spencer Rattler will be on Oklahoma’s Heisman Trophy watch list in 2020. Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield (all transfers) preceded him the past three seasons. But the bigger issue for OU is improving a defense that lived a nightmare in the 63-28 beheading versus LSU in the national semifinals. Perrion Winfrey, the No. 1 rated JUCO DT will help. To better confirm our notion: OU ranked No. 3 in Total Offense, but No. 128 nationally in Red Zone Defense last season. The Sooners made it to the CFB Playoffs despite starting the 4th most underclassmen in 2019 (56.5%). They’re back, red-faced and experienced – a dangerous combination in 2020.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Sooners are 37-0 SU and 25-11 ATS since 1999 during the regular season when coming off a loss.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Kansas State (11/14)

OKLAHOMA STATE
TEAM THEME: BEWARE OF THE MULLET

2020 Recruit Rank: 45
Ret Starters: Offense - *8 / Defense - 10
RPR: Total: 9 (34 Offense / 8 Defense)

After posting 10-win seasons three years running from 2015-2017 – and then winning only 15 games combined the last two seasons – head coach Mike Gundy is hot under the mullet and prepared to do something about it. In what appears to be his most talented squad in 15 years at Oklahoma State, Gundy features 18 returning starters and the No. 9 overall ranked FBS team in the nation in Returning Production. Leading the way is RB Chuba Hubbard, on the 2020 Heisman Trophy watch list, and WR Tylan Wallace – both of whom bypassed the NFL draft to return in 2020. Anchoring it all is a defense with 10 starters back that improved its numbers across the board last season. Forewarned is forearmed.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Cowboys are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS off consecutive wins versus an opponent off consecutive losses under Gundy.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Baylor (11/7)

TCU
TEAM THEME: TWEAKSPEAK

2020 Recruit Rank: 28
Ret Starters: Offense - *5 / Defense - 7
RPR: Total: 64 (75 Offense / 51 Defense)

With 7 or fewer wins in three of the last four years, head coach Gary Patterson knew it was time to start tweaking. It started with the coaching staff where he brought back former OC Doug Meacham, among others. Also working alongside Patterson this season is Jerry Kill, former head coach at Minnesota and Northern Illinois, who will act as a special assistant to Patterson. If QB Max Duggan is to improve after a disappointing debut as a freshman last year, he’ll need to do so without WR Jalen Reagor and with a completely revamped running game. On the other side of the ball, the Frogs tied for the top spot in the nation in 1st Down Defense last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Horned Frogs are 34-5 SU and 25-12 ATS under Patterson in seasons when coming off a losing year.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at West Virginia (10/10)

TEXAS
TEAM THEME: KICK-START ME UP

2020 Recruit Rank: 10
Ret Starters: Offense - *7 / Defense - 9
RPR: Total: 21 (62 Offense / 14 Defense)

Tom Herman is entering Year Four with the Longhorns and after losing 15 games the previous three seasons, he went all-in on a coaching staff overhaul this offseason, with six new assistants. A lot of it was done on the advice of Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly in a parallel similar to what Kelly did when he re-booted his staff after the 2016 season and went on to average 11 wins per season the next three years. Note: Senior QB Sam Ehlinger is the sixth Power 5 Conference player in the last 20 years to pass for at least 25 TDs and rush for at least 15 TD in the same season. The other five have won the Heisman Trophy. With that, Herman needs to kick this team in the butt.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Head coach Tom Herman is 16-5 ATS in his career as a dog in his CFB career, including 6-0 ATS as a double-digit dog.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: vs. West Virginia (10/17)

TEXAS TECH
TEAM THEME: HORSESHOES AND HAND GRENADES

2020 Recruit Rank: 49
Ret Starters: Offense - *6 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 81 (106 Offense / 44 Defense)

What does a healthy Alan Bowman mean to the Red Raiders? At full speed, he’s an MVP. Before his injury against Arizona in Week Three last season, he was leading the nation in passing yards before landing on a medical redshirt. This was the same quarterback that completed over 69% of his passes for 2,638 yards and 17 TDs in an eight-game span as a freshman. To make matters worse, TTRR went 0-4 in one-score games while facing the top three teams in the conference on the road. In the end, they lost six of their final seven games last season, including a double OT defeat at Baylor and a pair of home losses in November by a FG or less.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Red Raiders pass defense has ranked No. 128 in yards allowed each of the past two seasons.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Kansas State (11/7) - *KEY

WEST VIRGINIA
TEAM THEME: WHAT BROWN CAN DO FOR YOU – TAKE II

2020 Recruit Rank: 37
Ret Starters: Offense - *8 / Defense - 5
RPR: Total: 66 (47 Offense / 88 Defense)

While we lauded the hiring of Neal Brown by West Virginia, things certainly didn’t go according to Hoyle in his first year with the Mountaineers last season. Desperately lacking returning production experience on offense, a 5-game losing streak starting in October doomed Brown’s chance of extending the Mountaineers’ bowl skein to five consecutive years when the attack slipped 19 points and 185 yards per game in 2019. In fact, they were one of only five teams to rush the ball for less than 3 yards per carry last season. For what its worth, they did manage to win two of their final three games last year. Now well stocked on offense, look for this to be Brown’s big bounce back.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Mountaineers have gone bowling seven straight times since 1993 in years in which they have no consecutive road games.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Texas Tech (10/3)

**Udog** · 07-09-2020, 11:29 PM

2020 Big Ten Betting Preview, Picks, Strategies
Marc Lawrence

Well Stocked

Athlon Sports reports the 2020 All-Big Ten is led by 15 selections from Ohio State, with Michigan at 12 and Iowa and Penn State with 11 each.

Meanwhile, seven other programs had at least seven selections on the 2020 All-Big Ten squad.

Bowlers Welcome

Like last season, twelve Big Ten teams will square off against at least one non-conference team that participated in a bowl game last season, with 22 of all 42 non-conference games featuring opponents coming off bowl trips. And like last year, Purdue will face bowl teams in all three of their 2020 non-conference contests, while Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin will each face a pair of non-conference foes that won bowl games.

Counting conference and non-conference contests, every Big Ten team will face at least six teams that played in a bowl game last season. Purdue leads the way facing nine such opponents, followed by Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Ohio State each with eight such contests.

Welcome Aboard

Like last season, the Big Ten will welcome a pair of new head coaches to the sidelines for the 2020 campaign in Michigan State’s Mel Tucker and Rutgers’ Greg Schiano.

Tucker brings a wealth of coaching experience to MSU. He began his coaching career in 1997 as a graduate assistant at Michigan State under Nick Saban in 1997. Along the way back to the Spartans, Tucker followed Saban to LSU before becoming a DB coach at Ohio State under Jim Tressel when the Buckeyes won the National Championship is 2002. Tucker moved on to the NFL as a DC and DB coach with the Cleveland Browns from 2005-07. He served as DC and interim head coach with the Jacksonville Jaguars between 2009-11 before moving on to the Chicago Bears in 2013. In 2016 he became the Georgia Bulldogs DC before becoming the head coach at Colorado last season.

Meanwhile, Schiano returns for a second-stint as head coach with the Scarlet Knights where he first served from 2001-2011. Prior to that, Schiano started his college coaching career as a graduate assistant at Rutgers in 1989 before moving on to Penn State from 1990-95. From there he moved over to the NFL as an assistant coach with the Chicago Bears from 1996-98. After serving two seasons as DC with Miami Florida, Schiano accepted the head coaching position at Rutgers. From there he became head coach of the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL for two seasons before becoming the DC at Ohio State from 2016-2018.

Safe to say both “newbies” bring plenty of coaching experience.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

BIG 10 EAST

INDIANA
TEAM THEME: HOOSIER MANEUVER

2020 Recruit Rank: 58
Ret Starters: Offense - *8 / Defense - 9
RPR: Total: 11 (37 Offense / 13 Defense)

The Hoosiers posted both a winning conference record and 8 wins for the first time since 1993 last season. With the bar raised, uncertainty looms: OC Kalen DeBoer is now Fresno State’s new head coach, and QB Peyton Ramsey enrolled at Northwestern as a graduate transfer, meaning the Hoosiers must rely heavily on a unit that was 11th in the country in terms of returning production prior to Ramsey’s departure. With it, IU will be favored in five of its first six games, and will not face back-to-back road games this campaign for the first time since 2016, when last they earned a nod to the Foster Farms Bowl. Meanwhile, sophomore QB Michael Penix Jr. is a star in the making.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Over the last 24 years, the teams for which Allen has been a member of the coaching staff have posted a combined 240-88 record (.732).

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Penn State (10/31)

MARYLAND
TEAM THEME: TURTLE SOUP

2020 Recruit Rank: 31
Ret Starters: Offense - *7 / Defense - 4
RPR: Total: 90 (73 Offense / 100 Defense)

It’s now been five years since Maryland last enjoyed a winning season. In that span they’ve gone through three head coaches and stand 5-10 in close-call games. Hopefully, a solid recruiting class this offseason will come to its aid. Perhaps the best handicap of the Terps is backing them in games in which they figure to outgain an opponent, and fading them in games in which they don’t. That’s because they’re 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS when they win the stats, and 0-16 SU and 3-13 ATS when they lose the stats the past two seasons. And for what it’s worth, Maryland was ranked No. 129 in Red Zone Offense and No. 129 in Time Of Possession last season. Ugh.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Terrapins are 0-11 SUATS following a win from Game Seven out the last seven years.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PASS

MICHIGAN
TEAM THEME: MASTADONICITIS

2020 Recruit Rank: 14
Ret Starters: Offense - 5 / Defense - 6
RPR: Total: 125 (119 Offense / 110 Defense)

Second year OC Josh Gattis’ offense was hit hard by losses this offseason. He loses two-year starting QB Shea Patterson and four starters on the OL, including first round center Cesar Ruiz. In fact, only LSU had more players lopped off their roster in the 2020 draft than did the Wolverines (10). That figures to keep Jim Harbaugh up late at night. The elephant in the room, though, is the fact that Michigan has lost 8 straight games against hated rival Ohio State. Another loss this season will tie the record for the longest losing skein in this series. If you like their chances to snap the streak, you won’t like our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below, that’s for sure.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Wolverines are 1-15 SU in their final two games of the season since 2012.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Penn State (10/3)

MICHIGAN STATE
TEAM THEME: TOUGH TIMES IN EAST LANSING

2020 Recruit Rank: 43
Ret Starters: Offense - 7 / Defense - 3
RPR: Total: 117 (112 Offense / 111 Defense)

Mark Dantonio collected a $4.3 million dollar bonus at the end of last season in a one-time payout. It’s a good thing the check cleared as he resigned less than three weeks later. Dantonio was replaced by Mel Tucker, who inherits a tough situation as the Spartans football team has gone 14-12 the past two seasons behind one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten. MSU lost a quarterback, two main receivers, a tight end, an All-Big Ten linebacker, a former All-Big Ten safety and two starting cornerbacks – not to mention the entire defensive line. FYI: Tucker, a one-and-done head coach at Colorado last season, was also an interim head coach with the Jacksonville Jaguars for five games in 2011.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Dantonio was the first Big Ten coach to record five 11-win seasons in a six-year span. Prior to his arrival, MSU had never won 11 games in a season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PASS

OHIO STATE
TEAM THEME: JUSTIN TIME

2020 Recruit Rank: 5
Ret Starters: Offense - *5 / Defense - 4
RPR: Total: 93 (66 Offense / 114 Defense)

When Ryan Day accepted the keys to the machine from Urban Meyer, he inherited a team that ranked No. 2 overall in recruit wars the previous five years. Safe to say the cupboard was well stocked, and it culminated in the Buckeyes’ 3rd College Football Playoff appearance. The task at hand this year will be replacing 10 players from last year’s squad that were drafted by the NFL. They managed to land Oklahoma RB Trey Sermon (1691 yards and 18 TDs) as a grad transfer in the offseason. Last year was QB Justin Fields’ first year in the offense and his first full healthy year as a starter since 2016. Color him a Heisman finalist and the Buckeyes lethal again in 2020.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Buckeyes have been double-digit favorites in 52 of their last 63 regular season games the past five years.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Oregon (9/12)

PENN STATE
TEAM THEME: PORTAL POWER

2020 Recruit Rank: 15
Ret Starters: Offense - *8 / Defense - 5
RPR: Total: 47 (38 Offense / 66 Defense)

Like him or not, James Franklin is having a huge impact on recruiting classes coming to Happy Valley. Keeping them, however, is another story. It appears Franklin had shaken off the Penn State portal party as over 16 Nittany Lions transferred last season. And while the Penn State portal class of 2020 is much smaller, the quality – based on both prized WRs Justin Shorter and Ricky Slade leaving – was even higher. With it, Franklin is bringing in five freshmen wide receivers to be tutored by his fourth WR coach is as many seasons. Coupled with an abundance of coaching staff changes, including new OC Kirk Cairrocca from Minnesota, it means everything old is new again at Penn State these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Head coach Franklin is 3-13 SUATS away in his career versus greater than .666 conference opponents.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Iowa (10/17)

RUTGERS
TEAM THEME: A NEW MEANING OF ‘R’ RATED

2020 Recruit Rank: 64
Ret Starters: Offense - *9 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 15 (29 Offense / 25 Defense)

Greg Schiano is back for another tour of duty where he last roamed the Rutgers sidelines from 2001-11. Rest assured, Schiano is thankful for the opportunity, especially after the Jerry Sandusky scandal at Penn State (where he was a coach on the PSU staff) and when the University of Tennessee backed out of a deal to name him the Vols’ head coach after being pressured by social media, alumni and state representatives. Remember: in Schiano's most recent three seasons as defensive coordinator with Ohio State, 18 defensive players were drafted by the NFL, including 8 first round picks. Still, Rutgers was 129th in the country in scoring offense and 123rd in the country in scoring defense last fall.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Schiano is 16-3-1 ATS as a non-conference pick or dog with Rutgers.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Penn State (11/28)

BIG 10 WEST

ILLINOIS
TEAM THEME: RANCH FOR SALE

2020 Recruit Rank: 87
Ret Starters: Offense - *9 / Defense - 5
RPR: Total: 12 (11 O / 46 D)

Lovie Smith earned his stripes last year, leading the Fighting Illini to their first bowl game since 2014. Now he needs to summon a winning season, something Illinois has not enjoyed since 2011 – which was also the last time the Illini appeared in consecutive bowl games. Smith will lean heavily on an experienced squad in 2020, one that ranks No. 12 in the nation in overall Returning Production, and one that ranked No. 1 in Defensive TDs and No. 2 in Fumbles Recovered last season. But before you bet the ranch on Illinois this year, you’d better have a backup ranch. After winning 6-plus games the previous season, the Illini have won more than 5 games only one time since 1993.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Illinois is 6-46 SU in its last 52 Big Ten games against .500 or greater opponents.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Wisconsin (10/31) - *KEY

IOWA
TEAM THEME: KIRK PERKS

2020 Recruit Rank: 35
Ret Starters: Offense - 7 / Defense - 5
RPR: Total: 101 (97 Offense / 91 Defense)

Leave it to Kirk Ferentz. The winningest coach in Iowa football history welcomed just 10 starters back last season, yet led his troops to their sixth double-digit winning campaign since 2002. It happened with a team that finished No. 4 in the nation in Red Zone Offense and No. 4 in 4th Down Conversion Defense last season. New QB Spencer Petras, the Hawkeyes’ latest plug-and-play signal caller, will have the luxury of tossing to Iowa’s top four wide receivers from last season, all of who caught 37 or more passes in 2019. While the Hawkeyes are exceptionally light in returning production (No. 101 nationally), a recruiting class that has improved annually each of the last four seasons lends hope.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Hawkeyes Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured FBS head coach in the nation.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Northwestern (10/24)

MINNESOTA
TEAM THEME: FLECKSING THEIR MUSCLE

2020 Recruit Rank: 38
Ret Starters: Offense - *9 / Defense - 4
RPR: Total: 86 (13 Offense / 125 Defense)

What does a 10-win season, including a bowl victory over Auburn, get you these days? If you’re Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck, it meant a 7-year contract extension for almost $5 million per year. Better yet, Fleck returns second-team All Big Ten QB Tanner Morgan, who completed 66% of his passes for 10.2% yards per attempt while scoring on 30 TD passes with just 7 INTs. Meanwhile, the Gophers had 6 OL that started games last season and all 6 are back in 2020. Unfortunately, news on the defensive front is grim as they rank 125th in defensive Returning Production, including all 4 DL gone. However, they dodge Ohio State and Penn State and get Iowa and Michigan at home.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Golden Gophers won double-digit games last season for the first time since 2003.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Iowa (9/18)

NEBRASKA
TEAM THEME: FROSTING ON THE CAKE

2020 Recruit Rank: 20
Ret Starters: Offense - *10 / Defense - 5
RPR: Total: 17 (2 Offense / 83 Defense)

247 Sports put it best about the Cornhuskers’ chances this season saying, “The 2020 season will be another incremental step forward. Nebraska will get to a bowl game and improve on its 5-7 2019 season but some sort of eight-or-nine win breakthrough will come in 2021.” That’s certainly a positive statement for a team that has had a losing record each of the last three seasons. In fact, Nebraska’s 2020 season win total opened at 6.5, showing that, despite the continuing Huskers woes under expected savior Scott Frost, there is still plenty of love for the program. The frosting on the cake: the last time the Cornhuskers endured three consecutive losing seasons was 1959-61. They then went 9-2 in 1962.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Huskers have sold out 375 consecutive home games. When full, Memorial Stadium holds more people than all but two Nebraska cities (Omaha and Lincoln).

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Wisconsin (11/21)

NORTHWESTERN
TEAM THEME: REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

2020 Recruit Rank: 47
Ret Starters: Offense - *10 / Defense - 9
RPR: Total: 1 (6 Offense / 23 Defense)

Look out below! That was undeniably the theme surrounding the Wildcats last year. As defending Big Ten West champions, they entered the 2019 season riding as much momentum as the program arguably has had since the Rose Bowl days of the mid 1990’s. Then in one fell swoop, it was gone as prized QB recruit Hunter Johnson failed miserably. That figures to change in 2020, though, behind the No. 1 ranked unit in the land in Returning Production, plus new blood in graduate transfer QB Peyton Ramsey arriving from Indiana. He’ll work with new OC Mike Bajakian, formerly of Boston College and QB coach for four years with the Tampa Bay Bucs, to breathe some life into the offense.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Ramsey started 23 games at Indiana, completing 65.6% of his passes for 6,581 yards and 42 TDs, along with 832 rushing yards and 14 TDs.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Purdue (10/31)

PURDUE
TEAM THEME: CHANGING FACES, CHANGING PLACES

2020 Recruit Rank: 33
Ret Starters: Offense - *9 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 20 (32 Offense / 40 Defense)

After two steps forward under Jeff Brohm, it was back to their losing ways for Purdue last season as an influx of injuries led to the Boilermakers using three different quarterbacks. Coupled with future NFL star WR Rondale Moore suffering a season-ending injury on the same play that quarterback Elijah Sindelar suffered a broken clavicle, Purdue’s hopes immediately went down the drain. Moore returns, but with Sindelar opting not to return, the QB battle will be between Jack Plummer, who led the team with 1,603 passing yards and 11 touchdowns in nine games as a redshirt freshman, and Aidan O'Connell, who started the final three games. FYI: New DC Bob Diaco, former head coach at UConn and DC at Notre Dame, replaces Nick Holt.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
53.2% of starts made by the Boilermakers last year were by underclassmen, including a nation-leading 32.3% by freshmen.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Illinois (10/17)

WISCONSIN
TEAM THEME: NEAR TEARS

2020 Recruit Rank: 25
Ret Starters: Offense - *6 / Defense - 9
RPR: Total: 34 (72 Offense / 17 Defense)

Bet you didn’t know the Badgers have played in the Big Ten title game 6 of the last 9 years. The bad news is they’ve come up empty four straight times in those games, and they must replace multi 2,000-yard rusher Jonathan Taylor. But don’t feel sorry for Paul Chryst’s crew. The Badgers are bringing back a successful quarterback in Jack Coan, who finished eighth in Total QBR last season. They also rank No. 17 in overall defensive Returning Production from a second best unit that allowed 2.1 points per game in the first quarter of games last season. Plus, they also avoid Ohio State during the regular season (see more on that below). No tears needed for the Badgers.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Wisconsin is 27-1 SU since 1997 versus losing opponents in seasons in which they do not face Ohio State.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nebraska (11/21)

**Udog** · 07-09-2020, 11:35 PM

2020 AAC Betting Preview, Picks, Strategies
Marc Lawrence

Coaches Call

Entering its seventh year of existence, the American Athletic Conference remains the top Group of 5 League heading into the 2020 football season.

While the loop has struggled in bowl games, going 16-25 SU and ATS (2-11 SUATS versus greater than .666 foes), it continues to be a breeding ground for up-and-coming head coaches, including the likes of Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell, Tulane’s Willie Fritz, Tulsa’s Phillip Montgomery and UCF’s Josh Heupel.

Meanwhile, the 25 wins by Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo over Power Five or BCS Conference foes is still the most of all Group of Five schools.

Two head coaches make their AAC debut in 2018, including Memphis’ Ryan Silverfield and South Florida’s Jeff Scott – who both make their debut as a head coach at the FBS level.

Expect one or two of the aforementioned coaches to move on to a Power Five team in the near future, much like last year when Mike Norvell left Memphis for Florida State this season.

Talking Points

Danger ahead: since the AAC formation in 2014 the conference has struggled mightily in non-conference games following a SUATS loss, going just 19-38-1 ATS. And if they are visitors in these games they fall off the face of the earth, going 3-18 and 5-16 SUATS.
Since the formation of the conference in 2014, the best role for AAC teams has been on the road when coming off a win and facing a foe coming off a loss. It’s where teams in the conference stand 60-39 SU and 60-38-1 ATS overall.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

AAC EAST

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: STANDING PAT

2020 Recruit Rank: 40
Ret Starters: Offense - *6 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 31 (53 Offense / 33 Defense)

When the Bearcats won the CUSA East division, it appeared that head coach Luke Fickell would be the next Group of Five head coach to land a Power Five job. Despite being heavily courted, he decided instead to return to the Queen City for some unfinished business. Armed with a hefty pay raise and heavy in returning starters and production, the Bearcats now have their sights set on capturing a CUSA crown. Before they get there, though, they’ll need to start winning games in the stats, not just on the scoreboard. That’s because they got pushed around the field, going 6-8 ITS. The best recruiting class under Fickell this offseason (22 three and four-stars) should do the trick.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Cincinnati was ranked No. 130 (worst) in the nation in Most Penalties last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY AGAINST: vs. USF (10/3)

EAST CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: CHECK, CHECK AND CHECK

2020 Recruit Rank: 70
Ret Starters: Offense - *8 / Defense - 7
RPR: Total: 4 (8 Offense / 26 Defense)

First year head coach Mike Houston made inroads with the Pirates last season. Granted, they improved from three wins to four but a deeper probe shows more. Team scoring was up on offense and down on defense for the first time since 2013. They won a road game against an FBS opponent foe for only the second time since 2015. And they won consecutive home games for only the second time since 2014. So yes, Houston checked a few boxes last season. He also features one of the top teams in overall Returning Production Rankings. Sure, they will face 8 foes that were bowl teams last season. But when you’re looking to become one yourself, it comes with the territory.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Pirates are 2-29 SU and 5-26 ATS against conference foes with a winning record since 2010.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (11/12)

TEMPLE
TEAM THEME: NEW RULE

2020 Recruit Rank: 97
Ret Starters: Offense - *7 / Defense - 4
RPR: Total: 95 (40 Offense / 123 Defense)

A lot has change since Matt Rhule put this program back on the map with a pair of 10-win seasons in 2015-2016, one of which includes the Owls taking a heavy dip in the recruiting wars, and it’s taken a toll on the team’s performance. Let’s see how Rod Carey’s first recruiting class does this season. And let’s see how much passion the Owls bring in their season opener against the Miami Hurricanes and Manny ‘U-Turn’ Diaz. After he signed and then quit 17 days later to take the Miami job, the game will be a huge indicator, and possible momentum builder, for Temple. Granted, it will take a Herculean task to pull the rug, but stranger things have happened.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Owls coach Rod Carey is 25-12 SU and 26-10-1 ATS as a visitor in his CFB head-coaching career.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: at Miami Florida (9/5)

UCF
TEAM THEME: PAY ME NOW OR PAY ME LATER

2020 Recruit Rank: 71
Ret Starters: Offense - *8 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 38 (61 Offense / 35 Defense)

It pays to be on the Knights’ coaching staff: HC Josh Heupel earns north of $2 million and has four years remaining on his contract. Defensive coordinator Randy Shannon became the highest-paid assistant coach among Group of 5 programs after pay bump from $300K to $1 Million. He also received a one-time $300K retention bonus. In addition, the Knights will pay their assistants $3.5 million this season while providing the coaches with automobiles or auto allowances and incentives for reaching targeted goals. To which we ask: Where do we sign up? UCF is also a team that last season improved its offensive and defensive stats while slipping both SU and ATS. And you know how we feel about these teams.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Knights led the nation in first quarter points per game with 14.5 last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: vs. Tulsa (10/3) - *KEY

USF
TEAM THEME: BEAM US UP, SCOTTY

2020 Recruit Rank: 101
Ret Starters: Offense - *7 / Defense - 7
RPR: Total: 36 (57 Offense / 38 Defense)

Charlie Strong ... we hardly knew ye. With the celebrated hire of Strong lasting a mere three seasons, the Bulls move forward in 2020 behind Jeff Scott, former co-offensive coordinator at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. Scott, the youngest head coach in The American at 39, is widely recognized as one of the most respected coordinators and recruiters in the nation. While his initial recruiting class was crimped by the coronavirus, having to work via webcam, he made up for it with a bevy of transfers. He also inherits a team ranked No. 36 overall by Bill Connelly in Returning Production Rankings. A season-ending four-game losing skid sealed the deal for Strong. It’s now Scott’s turn to pick up the pieces.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
New Bulls’ OC Charlie Weiss Jr. and DC Glenn Spencer held the same positions at FAU last season before they were dismissed by the Owls.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: at Florida Atlantic (9/26) - *Key as a dog

AAC WEST

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: TAKE TWO

2020 Recruit Rank: 82
Ret Starters: Offense - *10 / Defense - 9
RPR: Total: 3 (42 Offense / 3 Defense)

There’s now way to hide it. The Dana Holgorsen project was a big bust last season. After jumping ship at West Virginia to become the highest-paid Group Of Five head coach when he signed a five-year $20 million contract laced with bonuses, Holgorsen became the first Power Five conference head coach in history to leave and take over a Group Of Five program. He knew he was in trouble when talented QB D’Eriq King played only four games before bailing out and transferring to Miami. The 3rd best Returning Production team in the land, featuring 19 starters back, will have a huge chip on its shoulder. They’re also a “Mission Team” in 2020, which makes them ultra dangerous this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Houston surrendered more yards than they gained last season for the first time since 2012.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: at SMU (11/21)

MEMPHIS
TEAM THEME: HERE WE GO AGAIN

2020 Recruit Rank: 67
Ret Starters: Offense - *6 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 29 (54 Offense / 29 Defense)

A school-record 12 wins last season paved the way for head coach Mike Norvell’s exit to Florida Sate, practically mirroring Justin Fuente’s four-year stay in Memphis before he bolted for Blacksburg. Enter Ryan Silverfield, an assistant coach all four years on Norvell’s staff and former six-year assistant with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFL. QB Brady White returns after tossing for over 4,000 yards at 9.5 yards per attempt with 33 TDs and 11 INTs last season. With it the Tigers’ season win-total opened at 9, a lofty number for a rookie new head coach. Still, he inherits a deep squad loaded with experience that he knows inside out, including Heisman Trophy watch list star RB Kenneth Gainwell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Tigers are 0-5 SUATS in their last five bowl games.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY AGAINST: at Cincinnati (10/31)

NAVY
TEAM THEME: TRADING SALVOS

2020 Recruit Rank: 126
Ret Starters: Offense - 6 / Defense - 8
RPR: Total: 87 (100 Offense / 58 Defense)

Not only is Navy coming off arguably its best season in school history, the Middies were the most improved team in the FBS in 2019, increasing a net +8 games over 2018. And the numbers spoke for themselves: No. 1 in Offensive Yards Per Rush; No. 3 in Red Zone Offense, No. 3 in First Down Defense, No. 4 in 4th Down Conversion Percentage and No. 4 in Fewest Penalties last season. Trying to improve on a history-making season will be next to impossible, especially with the loss of star QB Malcolm Perry. But head coach Ken Niumatalolo is thrilled to have been able to retain DC Brian Newberry, who was heavily wooed by Mike Leach and Mississippi State. Anchors aweigh.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Midshipmen were the only team in the nation to improve their offense and defense over 100 YPG each last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY AGAINST: at Tulane (9/19)

SMU
TEAM THEME: TRANSFERENCE OF MAGIC

2020 Recruit Rank: 81
Ret Starters: Offense - *7 / Defense - 6
RPR: Total: 70 (35 Offense / 97 Defense)

In just two short years, Sonny Dykes has taken the Mustangs back to the halcyon days they enjoyed in the early 80’s, just prior to being placed on the infamous ‘death penalty’. Last season’s 10-win effort – their most since 1984 – made them the seventh-most improved team in the FBS in 2019, improving a net +4.5 games over 2018. The magic started with 16 transfers, led by QB Steve Buechele, who keyed an offense that improved 12 points and 103 yards per game. Buechele’s back after tallying over 4,000 yards in the air and on the ground, good for 36 TDs. A winnable slate of non-conference games during the opening month of the campaign has Dykes anxious for more in 2020.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Head coach Sonny Dykes is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home versus sub .500 opponents.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY AGAINST: at Tulane (10/17)

TULANE
TEAM THEME: ON THE FRITZ

2020 Recruit Rank: 66
Ret Starters: Offense - 5 / Defense - 7
RPR: Total: 122 (126 Offense / 87 Defense)

Willie Fritz is right at the top of our favorite college football coaches list. He’s repeatedly shown the ability to make steak out of ground meat at every stop he’s made. That being said, we’re about to find out the depth of his coaching ability in 2020. With only eight teams sporting a lower Returning Production Ranking than the Wave, the margin of error is slim. Fritz has improved teams at every stop of his career and six of his last nine teams have either been bowlers or participants in the FCS championships. More importantly, Fritz is 22-2 SU and 17-5 ATS against .333 or fewer opponents, meaning he chews up on teams he’s expected to beat. Remember that.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Willie Fritz is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of 3 or fewer points.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: at Houston (10/8)

TULSA
TEAM THEME: AS THE WIND BLOWS

2020 Recruit Rank: 113
Ret Starters: Offense - *9 / Defense - 4
RPR: Total: 75 (4 Offense / 124 Defense)

After going 10-3 in 2016 and then winning a scant two games in 2017, the Hurricane has been deliberate in inching its way back up the ladder with three and four-wins seasons thereafter. The good news for head coach Phil Montgomery is the arrival of QB Zach Smith from Baylor, who returns for his senior season after tossing for 3,279 yards and 19 TDs. The bad news is its top two playmakers on defense are gone. Then again, a quick glance at Tulsa’s Returning Production Rankings finds them checking in at No. 4 overall on offense, but No. 124 on defense. Still, the Big Breeze needs to overcome a nasty string of 10 defeats the past three seasons in one-possession losses.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Golden Hurricane are 24-6-1 ATS in games in which they score 30 or more points, including 14-1 ATS as a dog.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Cincinnati (10/17)

**Udog** · 07-10-2020, 02:18 PM

College football betting: Big Ten decision alters 2020 odds
Patrick Everson

The Big Ten announced its sports would play only the conference schedule for the 2020 season, with major implications for a variety of sports betting markets.

College football betting got a significant jolt Thursday afternoon, in the seemingly never-ending stream of bad news emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Big Ten announced its football programs – and in fact all fall sports – would play only the conference schedule for the 2020 season.

Oddsmakers at several sportsbooks discussed the impact of the Big Ten’s plan on college football odds.

How does the Big Ten’s decision affect college football win totals?

In a nutshell, all college football season win totals are now off the odds board – if they were even on the board to begin with. South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews had a pragmatic approach very early on in the COVID-19 shutdown, and he now appears prophetic.

“I never put up win totals, because I was afraid of exactly this,” Andrews told Covers. “I always said if they were gonna play at all, it’d be only conference games. This is the first shoe to drop, and I think other conferences will follow.”

Jeff Davis, director of trading for Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks, had only the win totals impacted by Thursday’s news.

“All win totals off the board,” he said. “Nothing else affected at this point.”

How does the Big Ten’s decision affect college football championship odds?

Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook operations for DraftKings, said the futures market for the winner of the College Football Playoff is off the board.

“There are no national championship futures right now,” Avello said, noting the Big Ten has a huge impact on those odds. “You’ve got Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin all probably among the top 30 teams. So you can’t do anything right now. Other conferences have to make their decisions (first).”

Avello fully supports the Big Ten’s move and thinks it might just salvage the college football season.

“I wasn’t sure there was gonna be college football this year, so it’s a step in the right direction,” Avello said. “At least there’s some hope here.”

Andrews was once again ahead of the curve.

“I had national championship up, but I took that down a long time ago, in March,” he said. “It’s a pretty major move by the Big Ten. The Big Ten is a major market. They’re obviously worried about student-athletes and the rest of the students, as well. They’re concerned about everybody.”

How does the Big Ten’s decision impact games?

FanDuel Sportsbook had a slate of Games of the Year, and any of those involving a Big Ten team against a nonconference opponent are now off the board. Any bets already made on those matchups are refunds.

DraftKings also had Games of the Year up, along with Week 1, and took down any matchup pitting the Big Ten vs. a non-Big Ten team. The same could be said at sportsbooks across the country that posted similar odds.

How does the Big Ten’s decision impact Group of 5/FCS schools?

Beyond betting odds, programs in the Group of 5 Football Bowl Subdivision conferences and in the Football Championship Subdivision will take a severe hit due to the Big Ten’s decision. Many Group of 5/FCS programs rely on lucrative paydays – sometimes in excess of $1 million – gained by accepting nonconference road games against Power 5 teams.

This season alone, four Group of 5 FBS teams – Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan and Northern Illinois – and two FBS independents – Connecticut and Brigham Young – had two Big Ten opponents on their respective schedules.

Those matchups often help a Group of 5 or FCS school prop up its entire athletic department budget for the year. Losing such lucrative games could wreak financial havoc on those athletic departments, well beyond the football program. And that will be magnified if more Power 5 conferences follow the Big Ten’s lead.

Announcement

2020 NCAAF Season Info

2020 NCAAF Season Info

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment