XFL Week 4 Stuff

[Udog]

Betting Stats heading into Week 4:

Favorites: 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS
Home Teams: 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS
Home Favorites: 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS

Over/Under: 4-8

[Udog]

XFL Week 4 Best Bets Betting Odds, Results and Trends for all 4 matchups
Brian Bitler

XFL Betting Results

Road teams started off Week 3 with a pair of victories and while Dallas (-3) covered in its 24-12 win at Seattle, the Houston Roughnecks remained the only unbeaten team in the XFL at 3-0 but it failed to cover (-8) the closing number in their 34-27 road win at Tampa Bay. The combined 61 points posted were the most posted in the XFL this season and 'over' bettors were celebrating before the fourth quarter started.

On Sunday, home teams struck back with a 2-0 SU and ATS mark as St. Louis dominated New York 29-9 in wire-to-wire fashion, easily covering as a double-digit favorite (-10.5). Meanwhile, the upset of the week took place at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California as Los Angeles humbled then 2-0 DC by 30 points (39-9). The Wildcats closed as healthy home underdogs (+8.5) and bettors taking the money-line could've taken home a generous return as high as 4/1 (Bet $100 to win $400).

Week 3
Home/Away: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
Favorites/Underdogs: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Over/Under: 2-2

Overall
Home/Away: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS
Favorites/Underdogs: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS
Over/Under: 4-8

XFL STANDINGS

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Team SU ATS Over/Under PF PA Home Away
St. Louis BattleHawks 2-1 2-1 1-2 68 46 1-0 1-1
DC Defenders 2-1 2-1 1-2 67 58 1-0 1-1
New York Guardians 1-2 1-2 0-3 32 59 1-0 0-2
Tampa Bay Vipers 0-3 1-2 1-2 12 40 0-1 0-2

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Team SU ATS Over/Under PF PA Home Away
Houston Roughnecks 3-0 1-2 3-0 99 68 2-0 1-0
Dallas Renegades 2-1 2-1 0-3 58 45 0-1 2-0
Los Angeles Wildcats 1-2 1-2 2-1 74 71 1-1 0-1
Seattle Dragons 1-2 1-2 0-3 48 64 1-1 0-1

XFL Week 4 Opening Betting Lines
Los Angeles (-6, Total 40.5) at New York
Seattle at St. Louis (-13, Total 39)
Houston at Dallas (-1, Total 50)
DC at Tampa Bay (-1, Total 44)

Future Odds to win 2020 XFL Championship
After posting a dominating win in Week 3, the St. Louis BattleHawks moved from 10/1 to 5/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $250) to capture the inaugural XFL Championship. New York, one of the preseason favorites has dropped to the longest of long shots at 40/1 odds after three weeks of action.

Current (Opening)
Houston Roughnecks 2/1 (5/1)
St. Louis BattleHawks 5/2 (10/1)
Dallas Renegades 4/1 (5/2)
D.C. Defenders 9/2 (6/1)
Los Angeles Wildcats 12/1 (8/1)
Tampa Bay Vipers 18/1 (5/1)
Seattle Dragons 30/1 (16/1)
New York Guardians 40/1 (5/1)

XFL Week 4 Best Bets

Three weeks of the XFL season are in the books and their really are some breakout players that have performed week in week out. No sugar coating last week as I had a 0-4 record. Through three weeks, I sit at 4-8 with my "Best Bets" and after watching twelve games, I think I have made some adjustments to my ratings grid to have a successful Week 4. Let's break down the games.

Games for Saturday, Feb. 29

Los Angeles Wildcats at New York Guardians
(ABC, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Two of the bottom tier teams meet in New York in Saturday's first game as the Los Angeles Wildcats head to the struggling New York Guardians as a road favorites. The Wildcats were slotted as one of the middle tier teams in the XFL and got off to a rough start before finally breaking through last week for a needed win over a stoudt DC team. I think LA carries that momentum into New York where nothing is working on offense no matter who they put at quarterback. I think this line screams LA as the books beg you to take the Guardians here. QB Josh Johnson had one of his best pro games of his career last week throwing for 278 yards and three touchdowns for the 'Cats. Lay the 7 points here and take the road Wildcats here.
Best Bet: Los Angeles -7

Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks
(FOX, 5:00 p.m. ET)
In the late game for Saturday we have the 1-2 Seattle Dragons traveling to St.Louis to play the hottest team in the XFL, the 2-1 Battlehawks. St.Louis opened up the season as 10-1 long shots to win the XFL Championship and now sit at 5/2 odds to win the XFL Championship. A ton has to do with smart play from their quarterback position and utilizing a power run game which thus far has yielded 157.7 yards per game. St.Louis has been perfect ATS so far this season but I feel as though 12 points is a tall order here. We will take the points and the Dragons at +12 in the late Saturday afternoon tilt.
Best Bet: Seattle +12


Games for Sunday, Mar. 1

Houston Roughnecks at Dallas Renegades
(FS1, 4:00 p.m. ET)
In Sunday’s early game and the premier matchup in Week 4 of the XFL has the undefeated Houston Roughnecks lead by PJ Walker at quarterback, and a wide receiver named Cam Phillips, who had 8 catches and 194 yards and 3 touchdowns last week for Houston. Look for the PJ Walker and Cam connection to continue on Sunday. Former NFL QB and Oklahoma Sooners standout Landry Jones impressed me last week for Dallas as they won an always tough road spot in Seattle with an engaged crowd. The Houston line seems padded to me as Dallas came into the season as the best rated roster in the league so here we get a team that is starting to heat up at home as a short 'dog -- a definite no brainer for me. Betting on Dallas +2 here on Sunday but feel like this team will win no points needed.
Best Bet: Dallas +2

DC Defenders at Tampa Bay Vipers
(ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
We finish out our week four XFL card with a very intriguing game and one that looks like a trap for bettors. Tampa Bay opened up as road favorite in the first two weeks of the season and lost both games straight up. Last week the Vipers and head coach Marc Trestman still could not figure out their QB situation and it showed on the field. With Aaron Murray out with a foot injury they turned to backup Taylor Cornelius, some might recall his time at Oklahoma State. DC Defenders went into last week's game at LA as easily one of the best teams in the XFL but that loss to LA by 30 points has raised some questions. This line for today’s game opened up at Tampa +1 which seems like a trap. Bettors have bet big on the road Defenders in a big way. For me Tampa will be all in for this game and I gotta believe that they get into the win column. Take any and all points here. I like Tampa +2.5 at home.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay +2.5

[Udog]

by: Andrew Caley


XFL BETTING TRENDS

Some quick notes through three weeks:

Unders are still 8-4 but Overs finally came back a bit going 2-2 in Week 3, thanks to some added scoring last week. After the first two weeks of the season had an average of just 37.8 combined points per game, last week saw an uptick to 45.8 combined points per game with an average betting total of 43. This week’s average Over/Under total is just above 43 points.

When it comes to the XFL pointspreads, home teams are still the best bet in the XFL at 7-4-1 against the spread. Home teams have outscored road teams by an average score of 24.1-16.7, which makes this week more interesting with three road faves on the board. Road faves are 2-3-1 ATS so far in 2020.

And lastly, quarterback play still matters the most. Houston’s P.J. Walker is the early favorite to win MVP and St. Louis’ Jordan Ta’amu isn’t too far behind. The Renegades are undefeated with Landry Jones and the Wildcats’ Josh Johnson has arguably looked better than anyone the last two weeks. Meanwhile, New York, Seattle and Tampa Bay are searching for answers under center and are almost out of the XFL title hunt already.


LOS ANGELES WILDCATS AT NEW YORK GUARDIANS (+7.5, 40)

One of my new rules about betting the XFL is keeping it simple and focusing what we actually know. When you see that the Wildcats are 7.5-point road faves in a game they have to travel across the country for, you might pause for a moment. Do we like getting this many points with the Guardians at home?

Here's what we know.: quarterback play matters a tremendous amount in the XFL. Josh Johnson has arguably looked like the best QB in the league the last two weeks (he missed Week 1 with a thigh injury). The NFL journeyman has 463 yards with five TDs and no picks. We also know the Guardians are a mess. They have only nine total points the last two weeks and played all three quarterbacks. Don’t overthink this.

Pick: Wildcats -7.5


SEATTLE DRAGONS AT ST. LOUIS BATTLEHAWKS (-11.5, 38.5)

Saturday’s second game should fall along the same basic line as the first, right? The BattleHawks look like one of the strongest teams in the league and quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is one of the league’s biggest surprises thus far. Meanwhile, Seattle has struggled with QB Brandon Silvers. He's completing just 53 percent of his passes and has four interceptions while leading a Dragons offense that hasn’t topped 20 points in a game so far.

However, this is an interesting game numbers wise. The 11.5-point spread makes the BattleHawks the biggest faves of the season, while the total of 38.5 points is the lowest in the XFL so far. A rule of thumb, in say college football, is to side with a big underdog with a total this low. But screw that. Seattle is a little better than New York - just good enough to get us Over this total but not good enough to cover, particularly with the BattleHawks' awesome home-field advantage.

Pick: BattleHawks -11.5 AND Over 38.5


HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS AT DALLAS RENEGADES (+2, 49.5)

It's arguably the best game of the young XFL season as the undefeated Roughnecks visit the 2-1 Renegades with first place in the West on the line.

Houston, led by QB P.J. Walker and wideout Cam Phillips, is the highest-scoring team in the league (and by a wide margin). Put it this way: four XFL games have gone Over and the Roughnecks have been involved in three of them. They’ll be put to the test against a Renegades defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league.

Dallas is 2-0 SU and ATS since Landry Jones has returned. The former Steeler has thrown for 579 yards and completed 72 percent of his passes but has four interceptions. That could lead to trouble against a defense that has 10 sacks and five picks. And while the Dallas defense has a bend-don’t-break mentality, it doesn't bring much pressure and is lacking in the turnover department.

The Renegades have great balance with Jones under center and Cameron Artis-Payne and Lance Dunbar in the backfield, but it’s hard to fade what has looked like the best team and player in the league at this point.

Pick: Roughnecks -2


DC DEFENDERS AT TAMPA BAY VIPERS (+2.5, 44.5)

I predicted the Wildcats would cover versus DC last week, but didn’t expect a butt kicking of that magnitude. Cardale Jones completed just 50 percent of his passes for 103 yards and four - count ‘em - four picks. The Defenders defense meanwhile, got shredded by Josh Johnson for 278 yards and three scores. While that result was a little baffling, the Defenders get a chance to get back on track when they visit the Vipers.

The Vipers finally showed some life last week, but it wasn't enough for their first win. They went into halftime of last week’s home opener against Houston with the game knotted at 18 before an eventual 34-27 Roughnecks’ victory. But some interesting news out of Tampa: QB Quinton Flowers has reportedly left the team and Taylor Cornelius is expected to start while Aaron Murray works his way back from injury. While Flowers wasn’t the starter, he injected life into the offense with his passing and running when he came into games. Cornelius has completed 55 percent of his passes for 347 yards with one TD and three picks over the last two games.

With no Plan B for the Vipers, look for the Defenders to get back to their ball-hawking ways and Jones to bounce back against a defense that has allowed the most points in the league. Jump on this now before it jumps to a field goal.

Pick: Defenders -2.5

[Udog]

Betting Stats following Week 4:

Favorites: 10-6 SU & 8-8 ATS
Home Teams: 11-5 SU & 9-7 ATS
Home Favorites: 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS

Over/Under: 5-11