NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Sat., Jan. 4 - Sun., Jan. 5)

[BettorsChat]

For the first time since Week 15, Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook was a full participant in practice. On track to return to the lineup Sunday vs. the Saints.

Officially back: the Texans have activated DL J.J. Watt to the 53-man roster and he will play on Saturday, per source. The team placed starting S Tashaun Gispon on IR to make room for Watt

Eagles placed G Brandon Brooks on Reserve/Injured and signed WR Shelton Gibson.

[Udog]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David

Minnesota at New Orleans (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 and as of Wednesday morning, the number has been pushed up to 49 ½. This is the highest total of the Wild Card weekend and based on the public perception of shootouts in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, you can understand the uptick.

Even though quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have the ability to light up the scoreboard, the ‘over’ was only 9-7 this season. More surprising, Minnesota owned a 9-7 ‘over’ record and that included a 5-3 mark to the high side on the road. Delving into that number further, the Vikings closed the season a 5-0 run as visitors and as much heat as QB Kirk Cousins takes, they averaged 32.4 points per game over that stretch. Minnesota went 3-2 in those games and the reason it didn’t do better was because the defense allowed 25.4 PPG. On the season, the Vikings were ranked sixth in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) but that number spiked against playoff teams (25.4 PPG). The Vikings went 1-4 in those games and that’s why Cousins gets criticized and why I often label Minnesota as a “bully” team.

The total results (4-4) at New Orleans for home produced a stalemate despite averaging 28.4 PPG. The attack did have two clunkers during this span, defeating Dallas 12-10 in Week 4 before getting humbled 26-9 by Atlanta in Week 10. New Orleans was ranked 13th in scoring defense (21.6 PPG) and while the unit has improved over the last few seasons, watching the 49ers captured a 48-46 road win over the Saints in Week 14 reminded us of those weaknesses. The loss to San Francisco was the only setback for New Orleans against a playoff team this season, who finished 4-1 overall. Make a note that all five of those games went ‘over’ the number and they were clear-cut shootouts with an average combined score of 64 PPG. If you take out the combined 94 points versus SF, the average is still strong at 56.5 PPG. These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The ‘over’ went 2-1 and that includes Minnesota’s improbable 29-24 win over New Orleans in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs.

Cousins has only started one playoff game in his career when he was with Washington and they were blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the experience edge goes to Brees with an 8-6 record in the playoffs with New Orleans and the ‘over’ has gone 9-5 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season as it rallied past Philadelphia 20-14 in the Divisional Playoffs before getting stunned 26-23 by the L.A. Rams in the NFC Championship. The totals on those games both closed in the fifties (52, 55) and I believe this one will too by kickoff. Prior to those results, the Saints were on a 5-0 ‘over’ run at home with Brees in the playoffs and the best production for the future Hall of Famer came in Wild Card game. New Orleans has averaged 40.3 PPG in its last three WC spots at home and I believe they put up another crooked number and cash its Win Total Over (28 ½). I do believe Minnesota will score as well and its Team Total (20) Over is tempting, but let’s keep it simple and drill the Over (49 ½) in the game only. I’ll call it New Orleans 42 Minnesota 27 in the Sunday’s opener.

Seattle at Philadelphia (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card playoff matchups, this is the only total that has seen early ‘under’ money. The SuperBook sent out an opener of 45 ½ and the total sits at 45 as of Wednesday evening. This is also the game that features a rematch from this year’s regular season as Seattle captured a convincing 17-9 road win over Philadelphia in Week 12 as a two-point road favorite and the ‘under’ (45 ½) was never in doubt. Both clubs had to deal with windy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field and that likely helped make the game very sloppy. The pair combined for seven turnovers, with the Eagles coughing it up five times. Plus, Seattle has 12 penalties and key drops by their wide receivers.

Including that win, Seattle has now won five straight against the Philadelphia and QB Russell Wilson is now 4-0 in his career against the Eagles while the ‘under’ has cashed in all four of those games. While everybody knows Seattle is one of the toughest venues in the NFL, what we’ve seen from Wilson in his career (38-25-1) on the road is impressive and the 7-1 record this season was tied for the best mark in the league as a visitor.

What’s more eye-opening is that Seattle has been able to score while traveling great distances and that’s been a common theme. In their last seven games played in the Eastern Time Zone, the Seahawks are averaging 27.4 PPG and that includes the 17-spot versus the Birds. The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in those games and the numbers would probably be better but Seattle’s defense has been better on the road (21.1 PPG) this season than at home (28.6 PPG), which is crazy when many of us still reminisce about the “Legion of Boom” unit.

Philadelphia has some crazy home-away numbers as well, especially for totals. The Eagles saw the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at the Linc. The difference has been the Philadelphia defense, which allowed 16.8 PPG compared to an eye-opening 27.5 PPG on the road. Another factor helping the ‘under’ at home has been the inept Philadelphia offense. The unit posted 21 PPG at home and 27.1 PPG as visitors and all those stats produce identical 6-2 marks.

What head coach Doug Pederson and the Eagles did this season was incredible, especially winning their final four games with a short-handed club. It should’ve been five straight but people forget the embarrassing 37-31 collapse at Miami in Week 13. The one thing those opponents had in common is that none are in the playoffs. Against postseason clubs, Philadelphia went 2-3 and that includes a 0-2 record at home against the Seahawks and Patriots (10-17), both ‘under’ winners. Seattle went 3-3 against playoff teams this season, two of the victories coming on the road and the total went 1-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games and they’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. Those trends combined with Seattle’s ability to score on the East Coast lately should have you supporting the ‘over’ with confidence but the injuries and depth concerns for Philadelphia are hard to overlook. QB Carson Wentz, who’s making his playoff debut, has been playing great lately but I expect the home squad to lean on their defense and the form at home in their last six games (13.3 PPG) has been lights out. I don’t see both teams getting to 20 points and I believe kicking will be a key factor. I’d lean to ‘over’ bets in total field goals made but my only lean for this contest is on the Under (45). I see a 19-16 outcome here, likely Seattle, but whoever wins this game will get lit up for 30-plus points at Green Bay or San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


THE FIRST 15 OF THE WILD CARD

We are already on the Buffalo/Houston Under 43.5 but there is more meat on the Under bone in a first-quarter play. The Bills (2.7) and Texans (2.9) sit 30th and 29th respectively in first-quarter points scored this year. It has been even worse for Buffalo of late as it has scored just three first-quarter points over its last three games and has just three 1Q points in its last three road games. Looking through their schedule, they haven’t scored a 1Q touchdown on the road since Week 2, back on September 16.

Buffalo is 0-3-2 SU in the first quarter of its last five and 1-4 O/U on 1Q totals of 7.5. The Texans have had much more success in the first 15 as they are 2-1-2 SU in the first quarter in their last five and 4-1 O/U.

With Buffalo’s inability to score early and rely on Josh Allen comebacks too often, we are taking the Texans 1Q Money Line at -130.


SHOW US YOUR TDs

The New Orleans Saints scored the fifth-most TDs per game at 3.2 this year and have averaged five TDs per game over their last three. In the red zone, the Saints have scored a TD on 80 percent of their trips inside the 20 since Week 15 and 60 percent on the year. The Saints’ games have averaged 8.25 TDs per game over their last four and are 3-1 O/U TD totals of 5.5.

Minnesota is scoring more than three TDs per game on the road this year thanks to getting six points in the red zone 66 percent of the time. In their last five road games, the Vikes are 3-2 O/U TD totals of 5.5.

With Dalvin Cook expected to suit up for Sunday's matchup, we like both offenses to be able to reach the endzone from anywhere on the field. We are taking the Over 5.5 total touchdowns.


BETTER OFF RED ZONE

Lots of people are talking about the possibility of the Titans knocking off the Pats Saturday night and it is justified. Tennessee is averaging 412 yards of offense a game over their last three games which is the best mark out of every playoff team. Only Baltimore is averaging more rushing yards a game (186) and no playoff team is getting more yards per completion than Ryan Tannehill (13.9).

The real threat to the Pats is the Titans red-zone offense. Tannehill’s crew is scoring a TD on 87.5 percent of their red-zone trips since Week 15 which equals 2.3 red-zone touchdowns per game.

New England has been one of the league’s best at forcing teams to kick field goals inside the 20 (48 percent TD scoring %) but have padded their stats versus Bottom-10 offenses 10 times this year. In the two games against Top-10 offenses (Baltimore and K.C.), New England allowed five TDs in six trips to the red zone.

We like the Titans offense a lot better than New England’s and with the Pats liking to receive the ball in the second half, we could see the Titans with the first chance to put up points on the board. We are taking a Titans touchdown as the first score of the game at +250.


ALL MY WILSON

Yesterday we wrote about the Seahawks offensive-line problems and how much Russell Wilson has been getting sacked on the road. When we are looking at QB rushing totals, allowed pressure rates is a great stat to look at because getting outside the pocket and taking off on non-designed QB rush plays are where we can make the money.

Wilson is 9-7 O/U on rushing totals of 20.5 this year and finished with the 6th most QB rushing yards — averaging 21.4 yards per rush a game. Sunday's opponent, the Eagles, have allowed two QBs over the last three weeks to rush for 26 yards or more while Wilson has averaged 28.3 rushing yards a game over his 13 playoff appearances — going 7-6 O/U on totals of 24.5.

We think his rushing total is little high at 24.5, especially one week after being 18.5. We might shop around and hope it opens closer to 20-23 yards but love Wilson’s ability to escape pressure and pick up yards on the ground. We will take the Over 24.5, but will shop around first.

[Udog]

Saturday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

The NFL Playoffs have arrived and that means that bettors get to spend their usual amount of time handicapping NFL during the week, but narrowing down the research to just four games. That's quite critical in itself, but at the same time, just because it's the playoffs should you need to force a bet. Yes, you've got more time to dig into games, but if you don't find anything, you shouldn't be betting full units on plays you aren't fully comfortable with. Remember, if these matchups were held during a regular Sunday slate during the year, you might simply pass and move on to the next game. An important concept to keep in mind this time of year.

Nobody wants to read about how to pass on games in the sports betting market though, so let's see if we can find some significant angles for the games this weekend. The two AFC Wild Card games are up first, so that's where I'll begin.

Buffalo at Houston (4:35 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: Buffalo +2.5

A couple things to note off the top here, and that is, you probably want to buy this up to +3 for the best of the number, and with the juice currently sitting on the Houston side of things, it's not all that expensive. Secondly, thinking about the money-line (ML) with Buffalo is worth a look, but being safe is probably the better option for multiple reasons. Eventually this Bills run of not having won a playoff game since 1995 will be halted, and there is probably no better time then the present to do so.

However, I say taking the points is the better option because of one thing that speaks for backing Buffalo, but somewhat against taking the ML without some points already in your pocket. Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage.

In this 12-team football tournament known as the NFL Playoffs, in the past five years, the team that's got the worst opponent 3rd down conversion percentage entering the playoffs – ie the defense can't get off the field – is 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) during Wild Card Weekend. That's the role the Houston Texans find themselves in this season with an absurd opponent 3rd down conversion percentage of 48.51. Basically every other 3rd down gets converted by Houston opponents, and if you give a Bills offense that prefers to sustain (and capitalize) on long drives, a much better chance to do so, the Bills defense will make sure things look bleak for you the rest of the way.

The problem with that stat suggesting a ML play is the fact that the straight up (SU) record by these teams is actually 4-1 SU in these five games. That's a lot of narrow wins by home favorites in this spot, as their suspect 3rd down defense will always leave the backdoor cover open at worst, or forces said team to be playing uphill for the majority of the game and squeaking by with a late score.

Last year it was the Dallas Cowboys in this spot, and as -2.5 home favorites – the identical role Houston is currently in – a 24-22 SU win by Dallas was good enough to advance but not good enough for their backers. The 2017 postseason saw a similar story with the Saints winning SU but losing ATS by the hook in a five-point win over Carolina, while the 2015 Steelers pushed as small road favorites, and the 2014 Cowboys couldn't beat the Lions by enough margin.

This game landing on two points or less in a Houston win isn't the most likeliest of options, so I can understand a ML play on Buffalo only if you like the Bills, but a lot of funky things can happen in the playoffs and you can never have too many points because of it.

Buffalo's defense should be able to contain a Texans offense that runs quite hot and cold, and with the banged up playmaker bodies they have right now, asking them to be on the hotter side of that equation is tough. If Josh Allen wants to continue to take steps forward in his growth and development as a player, winning a playoff game now would be just that.

Buffalo comes into the playoffs as the worst 3rd down team on offense – convert just 35.85% of their 3rd downs – but to do that and still be a 10-win team is impressive. It means that the defense keeps Buffalo in games no matter what, and against a Houston defense that gives up what they do on the “money down” the Bills offense should be able to get things running rather smoothly quite early.

Buffalo might end up being a rather 'popular' dog this weekend, but I'm more then fine with that being the case with these two teams involved.


Tennessee at New England (8:15 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: New England Team Total Over 24.5

Tennessee sounds like they could be another underdog that becomes a popular choice, as the belief in New England continuing to reign over the AFC might be at an all time low. And really, it probably deserves to be given what the Patriots have put out their on the field since about November 1st. The schedule got tougher and better teams – teams with winning records – exposed New England.

Yet, while I would side with the overall idea that the Patriots reign atop this conference is over this year, I'm not so sure this is the game that we will see it happen. This year's New England team has the look of an aging champion who knows time is short and they know they'll likely fall but they won't go down without a fight. A home playoff game against a Titans team that's got a QB that Bill Belichick knows really well, is one of those “last stand” moments for the Patriots as those aging champions.

A glimpse into what was is all this Patriots team can provide their fans this year, and at home against Tennessee I believe that's the Patriots team we see. Because what do we see next from those aging champions? The youthful, upcoming alpha puts a beating on them as the torch doesn't get passed, but taken. Doesn't that sound like what may happen in Kansas City next week if New England wins this one at home?

If the Patriots are the ones who stand up and look like the dominant Pats of old here, getting 25 or more points should be attainable. In games against teams that made the playoffs this season, Tennessee gave up 27 points per game in the four games that mattered (excluding Week 17 vs Houston).

And if I'm wrong, and this is indeed the spot that the Patriots do fall, I doubt they go out with a whimper on their own field. As I touched on earlier, Belichick's got plenty of past game plans for facing Ryan Tannehill, and has got a good idea for what should likely work. Flip that knowledge into an early turnover or two, and the Patriots put up points.

Finally, as I touched on in a piece a few weeks ago when Buffalo was visiting New England in Week 16, you “don't tiptoe into Foxboro” if you expect to win, and a Titans win is going to have to likely come because Tennessee needs 28+ points to win.

[Udog]

Sunday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

Earlier in the week I touched on what to expect from the Saturday card opening up this year's NFL Playoffs, and hopefully those two games in the AFC play out as expected. Sunday's action is all about the NFC though, and in general, I do believe it's a harder card to break down overall.

The New Orleans Saints are laying over a TD against Minnesota in a rematch of the “Minneapolis Miracle” from a couple of years ago. And then after that, you've got a Seattle team that's outperformed their stat lines all year long, have got just a +7 point differential on the year – every other playoff team except for Houston (-7) is at least +31 in that category (Philadelphia) – as a small road favorite against the Eagles who didn't exactly light the world on fire either.

Home dogs in the playoffs should always at least get some consideration, and in this case, Seattle does fit the profile of a team that deserves to be faded in their current role. But that also means you've got to back Philly, a team that's been ravaged by injuries all year long. It really is a tough card through and through, however, after stepping back for a few days and really thinking about this board, one specific solution into how to wager on these two games did seem to always get circled back around too.

Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle at Philadelphia (4:40 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: 6-point Teaser: New Orleans -1.5 to Philadelphia +7.5

The fact that there are quite a lot of bettors out there in the market that have already seemingly given this game as a win to New Orleans is a little concerning. The Kirk Cousins futility in big games continually gets brought up as reasoning, and given that the weekend's action is likely going to have the Saints tied up in a lot of teasers and/or ML parlays, oddsmakers would love to see Cousins shed that 'choker' label and win this game outright. That is definitely a bit of concern in making this play, but you can count me among the masses who does believe that New Orleans will win this game outright.

The Saints at home are borderline unstoppable, at least on offense, and I'm not sure the Vikings have what it takes to put up the likely 30+ they'll need to threaten the Saints. New Orleans offense finished the year by putting up 34+ in each of their last four games, and 30 or more in eight of their last 10. Yes, their defense might have some cracks, but those types of cracks usually don't start showing up for division winners until later rounds of the playoffs. At home, with one of the best home field advantages in the league, the Saints should find a way to come out victorious. The point spread of -8 does seem a tad inflated and it's why I'm not interested in screwing around with a game that could easily land a point or two on either side of that spread.

Landing on the Eagles as the second leg of this teaser, as those of you who have read my NFL previews regarding Eagles games this year know I'm not the biggest believer in this team and especially their QB. But Wentz did step up when he needed to in the final month of the season, although let's pump the breaks on talks of him regaining his potential MVP form of 2017; Wentz absolutely needed to play hero against the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys of all teams in that final stretch.

But teasing the Eagles up is much more about fading a Seattle team who is still overvalued despite a recent decline back to Earth. The Seahawks lost their final two games, and three of their final four to slip into this #5 seed and will probably end up getting burned in the playoffs because of it. The only reason Seattle comes into this game laying chalk is based on record discrepancy, as a 7-1 SU record on the road probably doesn't hurt as well.

Yes, it's been a long time since the Eagles faced a quality foe, as their last game against a currently playoff team was actually hosting Seattle in late November, a game that finished 17-9 in Seattle's favor. That lack of competition (and overall healthy talent) the Eagles have recently dealt with is what has me shying away from backing them on the outright point spread, or even outright to win the game in general, but teasing them up through those key numbers of +3 and +7 makes a heck of a lot more sense.

This game could end up coming down to a single score one way or the other – Seattle played in single-score games (8 points or less) 12 different times this year, and did fairly well in those games. That seems to be their level of comfort late in games, and it's the most likely outcome for this one as well.

Eventually, the winner of this game probably gets their ass handed to them next week against the 49ers or Packers, but for this week, I'll take as many points as I can with the underdog and hope it's a close game throughout.

[Udog]

Saturday's AFC Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Buffalo at Houston (-2.5, 44), 4:35 pm ET, ESPN

The Texans just won their fourth AFC South title under Bill O’Brien, but he was being heavily criticized as recently as last month before his team closed out with wins in four of five before tanking their meaningless Week 17 contest against Tennessee. If Houston fails to hold serve here, it would fall to 1-4 in playoff games under O’Brien, having advanced past “Wild Card” Weekend only once. The Texans handled a Raiders team forced to start current XFL first-rounder Connor Cook at QB in 2016 before suffering a 34-16 loss at the Patriots.

Houston (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) lost to division rival Indianapolis 21-7 last year and fell 30-0 against the Chiefs back in ’15. To say there’s pressure on O’Brien to win this game is an understatement.

The same can be said about Deshaun Watson, once dubbed Michael Jordan by Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, his college coach. He’s a decided improvement on Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, the other Texans quarterbacks who have started under O’Brien. He’s better than Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates, the other two quarterbacks who won playoff games under Gary Kubiak and have therefore done something Watson has yet to. The third-year quarterback is just 0-1 but accounted for a single touchdown in a duel against Andrew Luck, throwing an interception and completing just 29 of 49 passes in an awful home loss where Houston failed to score until the fourth quarter of a game it trailed 21-0 at the break.

O’Brien and Watson are tied together in the hot seat. They’re in a situation where disappointing the home base again as they managed to last year could lead to early boos and ultimately mitigate the edge the Texans are supposed to have in welcoming the Bills into town. While O’Brien, also the team’s general manager, has improved the talent level, he’s ramped up expectations. Conservative play-calling and questionable in-game decisions have tried fans’ patience. Watson remains in their good graces, but he’s turned the ball over more this season and didn’t take a decided step forward. This is a big day for him.

Buffalo (10-6, 9-6-1) isn’t under the same type of burden. Reaching the playoffs for the second time in his three seasons makes Sean McDermott the most successful head coach since Wade Phillips was let go in ’99, and he’s indeed the winningest coach Buffalo has had of the 10 (head and interim) that have served at the helm for the team this century. Buffalo hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. Josh Allen will be making his first playoff start and is hoping to become the first Bills quarterback to throw a touchdown in the postseason since Doug Flutie did in a game he started against Dan Marino on Jan. 2, 1999. Yes, it’s been that long.

The Bills fell at Jacksonville 10-3 a couple of years ago and have to fear a similar ending considering that points have been hard to come by in their toughest contests. Second-year QB Josh Allen will be making his first career postseason start but went just 1-4 against playoff teams this season. Buffalo averaged 14.2 points in those games. Although veteran Frank Gore is in the mix, the Bills don’t have a lot of veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball to lean on as they hit the road. Leading rusher Devin Singletary is a rookie. Top receiver John Brown reached an NFC Championship game with Arizona in ’15 and hasn’t been back since.

Although the Texans’ defense has been vulnerable most of the season and has been taken advantage of in the red zone, the return of J.J Watt has the unit encouraged that it can perform their best when it matters most. Houston ranked 28th in total defense but gave up only four yards per rush as opposed to 5.34 without Watt, who obviously also makes the team’s pass rush all the more formidable in coming back from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27.

Allen has props of 219.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards available at Caesars. My expectation is that we’ll see him surpass the rushing prop because he’s certainly capable of putting up a big gainer or two on a scramble and often calls his own number on designed runs.

Buffalo would be favored at home given the spread in this contest, which is a nod to its superior defense. The Bills ranked third in yards allowed and gave up just 16.2 points per game. The Texans were 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite while Buffalo has yet to not cover a rod game this season (6-0-2 ATS), winning six of their eight outright. Watson threw for 26 touchdowns and 3,852 yards, while DeAndre Hopkins finished with 1,165 receiving yards and seven touchdown passes. A prop on Hopkins going over 72.5 receiving yards is also attractive, as are any TD props involving tight end Jordan Akins.

Houston has won four of the last five meetings against the Bills, falling in Buffalo in 2015 but owning home victories in ’12, ’14 and most recently, last season. The Texans won 20-13 on Oct. 14, 2018, pulling away on a Jonathan Joseph pick-six of embattled former backup Nathan Peterman, who was in for Allen in the final quarter. Buffalo managed just 12 first downs and 229 total yards. Watson threw for just 177 yards and was picked off twice, but did hook up with Hopkins for a score.

The individual matchup between Hopkins and star Bills corner Tre’Davious White, a first-team All-Pro, should be this game’s most important. Houston’s x-factor will likely be RB Carlos Hyde, who will be tasked with keeping Watson and the offense in manageable passing situations as the workhorse. He topped the 100-yard mark in the big win in Tennessee in Week 15 that ultimately helped the Texans claim the division and will be key in keeping the Buffalo defense from being overly aggressive.

Wrapping up the AFC South entering Week 17 and being locked into the No. 4 seed allowed the Texans to rest starters last season, so they’re well-rested. While Watt is certain to play, O’Brien wasn’t as sure he’d have the services of No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller, who really makes the Texans offense far more dynamic when he’s been able to play. ESPN Stats & Info reports Houston’s QBR with him in the lineup is 75.2 with him and 59.8 without him while the team’s third-down conversion rate is 51.9 percent when he’s out there and way down at 32.9 when he’s been unavailable. Fuller has dealt with hamstring issues and now a groin injury that has him listed as a game-time decision.

Corners Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are questionable but should play. The Bills list DE Shaq Lawson, WR/KR Andre Roberts, RT Ty Nsekhe and CB Levi Wallace as questionable.

The ‘under’ went 12-4 in Bills games this season and favored the low side (9-7) in Houston games. For all “Total Talk” on Saturday’s AFC Wild Card games, read Chris David’s piece click here.


Tennessee at New England (-5, 44.5), 8:15 pm ET, CBS

A pair of Bill Belichick’s proteges may ultimately wind up teaming to end the Tom Brady era in New England with a thud few could’ve seen coming.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who was one of Brady’s favorite teammates and won three Super Bowls with the Patriots over an eight-year span as a player before going into coaching upon his retirement a decade ago, will bring a team that has won five of their last seven games into Foxboro for a “Wild Card Weekend” date Belichick wanted no part of.

The six-time Super Bowl-winning coach just saw his Patriots fall to his most recent defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, who guided Miami to a stunning 27-24 upset at Gillette Stadium as a 17-point underdog. The talent disparity between both rosters dictated that the game should’ve never been close, yet the Dolphins led for most of Sunday afternoon before Tom Brady led a late rally that Ryan Fitzpatrick erased with one final flourish.

Instead of getting to rest up their ailing bodies while watching the Chiefs welcome in the scary-looking Titans, the Patriots fumbled away the AFC’s second seed and the bye that went along with it and will have to suit up against Tennessee to try and avoid elimination. A defense that had barely allowed 13 points per game suddenly looks vulnerable too since Miami receiver DeVante Parker dominated Stephon Gilmore, arguably the NFL’s top corner, to help seal New England’s demise.

The Titans not only have their passing game clicking behind Ryan Tannehill, who has teamed with rookie A.J. Brown to terrorize defenses over the past few weeks, they also can lean on NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who came back after taking a week off to rest a hamstring injury and ran for 211 yards and three scores in a dominant Week 17 win in Houston. The Texans didn’t play starters last week, but the Titans still answered the bell and come in looking sound on both sides of the ball in a must-win game. Tennessee ranks fourth in the NFL in 6.1 yards per play (6.1). Tannehill led the league averaging 9.59 yards per pass attempt and led the Titans to a 30.4 scoring average in his starts.

Beyond the fact that Vrabel played 17 playoff games under Belichick’s watch, giving him great insight to what he’s up against here, he’s also won the only meeting against his mentor as a head coach. The Patriots had won seven straight matchups with Tennessee prior to a 34-10 rout in Nashville on Nov. 11, 2018. Brady threw for 254 yards but failed to throw for a touchdown, while Henry ran for two scores and combined with backup Dion Lewis, a former Patriot, to run for 115 yards. Davis, who had a quiet injury-plagued ’19 regular season, caught seven passes for 125 yards. He’s healthy again.

Top receiver Julian Edelman finished with nine catches for 104 yards in that loss but has been limited to just 10 receptions over the past three weeks and has appeared hampered by a sore knee. There are also physical limitations to worry about as far as Brady is concerned. Although he’s ignored questions about what looks to be pretty obvious elbow discomfort, Brady has been noticeably flapping his arm and jogging in place to stay loose on the sideline.

Midseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu hasn’t had the impact the team expected and rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers are about to learn that playoff football ramps up the intensity to another level. New England scored over 30 points only once over its last nine games, though it did average 27.3 over its past three games.

Brady threw for 4,057 yards in his 20th season but threw for just one 300-yard game since mid-October. He threw for one or fewer touchdowns in half his games. Brady’s completion percentage (60.8%) was its lowest since ’13 and his passer rating ranked 27th in the regular season (88.0), its lowest since he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the ‘08 opener. I’d back the ‘under’ on a passing yards (257.5) prop featuring the legend.

Despite the fact most bettors are likely to tie their fortunes to Brady’s right arm for at least one last time in a home playoff game that might his last as a Patriot, oddsmakers didn’t even set the opening line at six or more points in the matchup against the No. 6 seed. The Westgate Superbook installed the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite, but that figure was bet down to 4.5 points before climbing back up.

Tannehill is 0-6 in his career at Gillette Stadium, playing victim in New England’s dominance over the Dolphins, so it’s ironic that a Miami win made Foxborough the setting for his first career playoff start instead of Kansas City. While Patrick Mahomes is still feeling his way out through this playoff thing, the 42-year-old Brady will be making his 41st postseason start. Opposing Vrabel in his first playoff game as head coach is Belichick, who is 31-11 in his career (22-19-1 ATS).

Tennessee topped 400 yards six times this season for the first time since 1991. They finished with 5,805 yards of net offense, fourth-highest in team history. Most of New England’s injury-related question marks entering this game lie on the defensive end with CB Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, safety Terrance Brooks and linebackers Jamie Collins and Ja’Whuan Bentley all listed as ‘questionable.’ Edelman will also don that tag but should play. The Titans list WR Adam Humphries as out but will have tackle Adoree Jackson and tackle Jack Conklin in the mix. Backup WRs Kalif Raymond and Cody Hollister, as is safety Dane Cruikshank due to illness.

Road teams are 8-0 against the spread over the past two seasons on “Wild Card Weekend,” winning outright five times. Be aware that the forecast calls for a wet, windy night. Temperatures should reside in the 40s and scattered showers are expected throughout.

[Udog]

NFL Wild Card Weekend betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Dalvin Cook took a breather in Week 17 to rest his shoulder, but he'll be good to go for Minnesota on Sunday at New Orleans. The Vikings opened +8, and sharp play moved the number to +7.5.

NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived, and with it a little primer on the four games – two Saturday, two Sunday. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The biggest news is that running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder), who sat out last week probably as more a precaution than anything, will play Sunday at New Orleans. “Cook is worth a half-point,” Osterman said. “He was one of the top backs in the league this year when he was healthy.” The Vikings opened +8 and moved to +7.5 Tuesday.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Wideout Will Fuller (groin) is questionable Saturday against Buffalo, but Osterman said if he sits, it would probably only be reflected in the juice. “He is a big part of the Texans’ offense. It wouldn’t affect the spread too much, most likely a move from Texans -2.5 (-120) to -2.5 (-110).”

Star defensive end J.J. Watt is returning from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27. “I would say Watt has a similar effect to Fuller at this point. If he goes out there and plays well, then it could be more of an adjustment if the Texans move on.”

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Put on your Macaulay Culkin shocked face: Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable for the umpteenth week in a row. Osterman said that had no impact, as The SuperBook fully expected him to play Saturday night at home against Tennessee. The Patriots are -5.5.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs/back) sat out last week against the Giants and is questionable Sunday at home against Seattle. However, Ertz’s status was already factored into the number by The SuperBook’s oddsmaking team, as was wideout Nelson Agholor (knee) being ruled out for the fifth time in six weeks. The Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs.


Weather Watch

TENNESSEE AT NEW ENGLAND: There’s a 70 percent chance of rain Saturday in Foxborough, Mass., along with winds approaching 20 mph and temperatures in the mid- to high-30s. However: “No effect on the total in this game. It’s actually gone up.” Indeed, The SuperBook opened the total at 41.5 and reached 44.5 Thursday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: No precipitation is expected, but it could be a little windy, approaching 20 mph. “The total has come down a half-point” from the opener. After opening at 45.5 and ticking up to 46, it’s now at 45.
Pros vs. Joes

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: “A lot of public money on the Saints, and we’ve seen some sharp bets come in on the Vikings. That’s why the line has come down from 8 to 7.5.”

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: “The Seahawks are the most-bet team so far of all four games. Public money on Seahawks spread and moneyline. Sharps on Eagles a little bit so far.” Seattle is laying 1.5 points.
Reverse Line Moves

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: Picking up on the Pros vs. Joes action, the public cash on the Saints outweighs the sharp play on the Vikings, but the number tightened from New Orleans -8 to -7.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Same situation. This line quickly flipped Sunday night from Eagles -1 to Seahawks -1 and stretched to Seattle -2.5 Monday morning. But later Monday, it tightened to Seahawks -1.5 after sharp play on Philly +1.5, even though the public cash on Seattle is greater.

[BettorsChat]

The #Texans will give him up to game time, but they are not expecting WR Will Fuller to play today.

From NFL Now: #Eagles RB Miles Sanders is good to go after praftice today, while TE Zach Ertz has not yet been cleared. Eagles ruled out WR Nelson Agholor for Sunday’s game vs. Seattle and listed OT Lane Johnson and TE Zach Ertz as questionable.

[Udog]

WC - Vikings at Saints
Kevin Rogers

The NFC Wild Card round kicks off at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans as the Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) finished with the exact same record as last season when they held home-field advantage in the playoffs. However, since San Francisco and Green Bay owned tiebreakers with identical 13-3 marks, New Orleans was relegated to the Wild Card round for the fifth time since 2010.

The Saints cruised to their third consecutive NFC South title as their three division foes all finished below the .500 mark. New Orleans actually concluded the 2019 season with a better road record (7-1) than at home (6-2), as five playoff teams posted a 7-1 away mark (Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, and Seahawks the others). The road ledger doesn’t mean much here as the Saints have compiled a 21-6 SU and 13-14 ATS mark in the last three seasons at the Superdome.

After losing the NFC Championship rematch with the Rams in Week 2 and quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury, the Saints banded together behind backup Teddy Bridgewater to win five consecutive games. During that unexpected hot stretch, New Orleans won at Seattle and knocked off Dallas in the underdog role, while four of the five wins came as a ‘dog. Brees returned in Week 8 against Arizona and continued the winning streak with a blowout of the Cardinals, 31-9 as 12 ½-point favorites.

New Orleans was tripped up by Atlanta following the bye week as 14-point home favorites, 26-9, but the Saints won the next three games to wrap up the NFC South championship on Thanksgiving night. The Saints fell short in the most exciting game of the season against the top-seeded 49ers in Week 14 in a 48-46 setback in spite of 349 yards and five touchdown passes from Brees. New Orleans closed out the regular season with three straight wins by double-digits each, but the scenarios didn’t work out for the Saints to grab a first-round bye.

The Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl two seasons ago after shocking the Saints in the NFC divisional round (more on that in a moment), but were flattened by the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles in the conference title game. Minnesota fell flat in 2018 with a 8-7-1 record and missed the postseason, but the Vikings rebounded to make the playoffs for the third time in the last five seasons.

Following a 2-2 start, the Vikings won four consecutive games, although only one of those victories came against a playoff squad (Philadelphia in Week 6). Minnesota was in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth, but couldn’t catch Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC North as the Vikings lost their final two games of the season to settle for an opening weekend contest in the playoffs.

The Vikings split eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium this season, as Minnesota eclipsed the 28-point mark in five of those contests. In the role of a road underdog, Mike Zimmer’s squad won at Dallas, but lost to a pair of playoff teams on the road in setbacks to Green Bay and Seattle, while also falling on the highway at Kansas City as a favorite. Dating back to last season, the Vikings have lost seven of eight games to playoff clubs, with the lone victory coming at Philadelphia in 2018.

In one of the most famous playoff finishes in recent memory, the Vikings stunned the Saints, 29-24 in the 2017 divisional round. The “Minneapolis Miracle” began as a Vikings’ blowout with them cruising past New Orleans to a 17-0 halftime lead before Brees rallied the Saints to a 24-23 advantage in the final minute. Case Keenum kept Minnesota’s season alive by hooking up with wide receiver Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard touchdown strike as time expired to give the Vikings the dramatic triumph. However, the Vikings failed to cash as 5 ½-point favorites as Keenum kneeled on a pointless two-point conversion, which ultimately led to a rule change eliminating extra point tries on a walk-off touchdown.

New Orleans and Minnesota didn’t meet this season, but the Saints picked up a modicum of revenge in 2018 with a 30-20 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Saints fell behind in the first half again, trailing 13-7 before New Orleans scored 23 unanswered points, which included three Wil Lutz field goals, an Alvin Kamara touchdown run and an interception return for a touchdown. Brees only threw for 120 yards, compared to the 359 yards racked up Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the former Michigan State standout owns a 2-10 record with the Vikings against teams with winning records.

The Saints have failed to cover in their last three home playoff games since 2017, including in the Wild Card round two seasons ago against Carolina. New Orleans jumped out to a 21-6 advantage as 6 ½-point favorites, while leading 31-19 with 5:08 remaining. However, Panthers’ star running back Christian McCaffrey broke away on a 56-yard touchdown pass from Cam Newton to help Carolina grab the road cover in spite of a 31-26 defeat.

Last season, the Saints erased a 14-0 deficit to the Eagles by outscoring Philadelphia, 20-0 over the final three quarters for a 20-14 win in the divisional round as 8 ½-point favorites. The NFC Championship at the Superdome wasn’t so super for the Saints, who squandered a 13-0 lead in a 26-23 overtime setback to the Rams, which was capped off by the pass interference not called in the final two minutes, which would have given New Orleans a first down and run the clock down for the game-winning field goal.

The Vikings last won a Wild Card game in 2004 at Green Bay, while dropping Wild Card contests in 2008, 2012, and 2015. The only good news for Minnesota is at least one road underdog has escaped Wild Card weekend in the NFC in three of the past four seasons, including Philadelphia’s 16-15 triumph of Chicago last season.

[Udog]

WC - Seahawks at Eagles
Kevin Rogers

The final Wild Card contest of the weekend takes place at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia showcasing the lone home underdog in this round. The Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) owned the worst record of any of the 12 playoff teams, but by virtue of winning the NFC East crown, they are able to remain at home in the opening round.

Philadelphia didn’t look like it would head to the playoffs after getting shocked at Miami as 10 ½-point road favorites, 37-31 in Week 13. The Eagles slipped to 5-7, but finished December strong by winning their final four games, including a crucial 17-9 home triumph over the Cowboys in Week 16. Philadelphia moved into the driver’s seat of capturing the division title as the Eagles grabbed the crown in the season finale against the Giants in a 34-17 rout to clinch their third straight playoff berth under head coach Doug Pederson.

Quarterback Carson Wentz is making his playoff debut after injuries derailed the past two seasons for the second pick of the 2016 draft. Wentz is coming off a career-high 4,039 yards passing this season, which included not one wide receiver racking up more than 500 yards. Two tight ends posted above 500 yards receiving, including Zach Ertz, who put up 918 yards and six touchdowns as he looks to suit up after missing the Week 17 win at New York with a rib injury.

The Eagles are not only riding a four-game winning streak, but have covered each of their last three contests. Only two of Philadelphia’s nine victories came against playoff squads an each of those wins came on the road at Green Bay and Buffalo. In three opportunities as a home underdog, the Eagles scored a total of 36 points, while owning a 1-2 SU/ATS record with a win over Dallas and losses to New England and Seattle.

The Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) squandered an excellent opportunity to take home the NFC West title for the first time since 2016, but couldn’t take care of its business at CenturyLink Field. Seattle headed into Week 16 tied with San Francisco at 11-3 atop the division with two home games remaining, but lost to Arizona in Week 16 as eight-point favorites, 27-13.

In spite of that unexpected defeat, Pete Carroll’s squad still had a chance to win the NFC West by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker against San Francisco, but the Seahawks didn’t pull off the season sweep of the 49ers. San Francisco jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead, as Seattle rallied to creep within 26-21, while having an opportunity to win in the final minute. The Seahawks were within one yard of a division title, but were stuffed at the goal line on fourth down as Seattle has to travel cross-country for the playoff opener.

Quarterback Russell Wilson likely won’t win the league MVP due to the breakout season from Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, but the Seattle signal-caller racked up the second-most passing yards in his career (4,110), while throwing 31 touchdowns and a career-low five interceptions. The battered Seahawks’ backfield received some help from a familiar face as Marshawn Lynch came out of retirement to sign with Seattle and scored a one-yard touchdown in the loss to San Francisco.

Seattle excelled away from the Pacific Northwest this season by compiling a 7-1 record on the highway. The Seahawks ventured to the Eastern Time Zone five times and won all five games at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Carolina. Granted, Seattle faced three backup quarterbacks (Mason Rudolph, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Allen), but the Seahawks topped the 28-point mark in three of those contests. Seattle handed San Francisco its first loss of the season in Week 10 as an underdog, while putting together a 2-1-1 ATS mark as a road favorite.

The Eagles have covered all five playoff games under Pederson the last two seasons, although Nick Foles was the quarterback and not Wentz. Philadelphia knocked off Atlanta and Minnesota as an underdog on its run to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title in 2017, while cashing in the ‘dog role against Chicago and New Orleans last season. The last time a home team was listed as an underdog in the Wild Card round came in 2015 when a trio of clubs lost as the Bengals (+2) fell to the Steelers, 18-16, the Texans (+3) were blanked by the Chiefs, 30-0, and the Vikings (+4 ½) dropped a 10-9 decision to the Seahawks.

The Seahawks have won the past five meetings with the Eagles dating back to 2011, capped off by a 17-9 triumph at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 12 as one-point favorites. Seattle put together its best defensive effort of the season as Philadelphia was limited to a field goal until scoring its lone touchdown with 20 seconds remaining trailing, 17-3. The Eagles shot themselves in the foot multiple times by turning the ball over five times, including a pair of interceptions thrown by Wentz. In three career starts against Seattle, Wentz is 0-3, while the Eagles have scored 9, 10, and 15 points in those matchups.

Seattle thrived on the road this season, but that hasn’t been the same story in the playoffs of late. The Seahawks have lost three consecutive away contests in the postseason, including a 24-22 setback at Dallas last January. Seattle owns a 2-4 SU/ATS record as a road favorite in the playoffs with Wilson at quarterback, as the last postseason victory away from CenturyLink Field came in the 2015 Wild Card round at Minnesota.

[BettorsChat]

The #Seahawks have downgraded WR Jaron Brown (knee sprain) to out. He won’t play vs. #Eagles.

#Eagles TE Zach Ertz is a go vs the #Seahawks. Seattle has been preparing all week as if he’d play.

Help is on the way for playoff teams next week:
— The #Texans are expecting to have WR Will Fuller (groin) active vs. the #Chiefs, barring a setback.
— The #49ers are expecting to have pass-rusher Dee Ford (hamstring) for the divisional game. He’s been limited or out for a month.

[BettorsChat]

The Vikings will be down two cornerbacks when they face off against Drew Brees and the Saints. Fourth-year nickelback Mackensie Alexander, who was held out of practice this week with a knee injury, and Mike Hughes, who has a neck injury, were both ruled out for Sunday's game, with Hughes subsequently being placed on injured reserve Friday.