NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Army/Navy & Bowl Season (Sat., Dec. 14 - Mon., Jan. 6)

[Udog]

Tuesday's Early Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Belk Bowl (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky

-- The Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from Atlantic Coast Conference will square off against the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, N.C. at Bank of America Stadium.

-- The Hokies are back at the Belk Bowl for the first time since the 2016 season, and they won 35-24 against Arkansas to cap off that campaign. That was also their most recent bowl victory, and they lost to Oklahoma State in 2017 in the Camping World Bowl and in 2018 to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl. This will be their first matchup with Kentucky in a bowl game, and they're 3-3 SU in six previous battles against SEC teams in bowl games.

-- The Wildcats have a bowl history dating all the way back to 1947 when they won the Great Lakes Bowl in Cleveland against Villanova by a 20-19 score. They were 8-5 in their first 13 bowl games, but dipped below .500 with four straight losses from 2009-17 before finally snapping that losing streak in a mild upset of Penn State last season in the Citrus Bowl, 27-24. This is their first-ever appearnace in the Belk Bowl. They're 0-3 in the past three tries against ACC teams in bowl games, falling to Georgia Tech in the TaxSlayer Bowl in 2016, the BBVA Compass Bowl in 2011 and Clemson in 2009 in the Music City Bowl. They last topped an ACC team when they pushed aside Florida State 35-28 in the Music City Bowl on NYE 2007.

-- The Hokies got a lot better as the season progressed. They started out just 2-2 SU/0-4 ATS through the first four games, including an 0-2 conference start with a loss at Boston College and at home to Duke. They turned things around with a comeback win at Miami on Oct. 5, kicking off a three-game winning streak. They nearly had a seven-game win streak, but fell just short 21-20 at Notre Dame on Nov. 2, although they easily covered in that one. They have a sour taste in their mouths, however, losing 39-30 to Virginia in Charlottesville to close out the season, snapping a 3-0 SU run, and a 5-0 ATS streak.

-- The Wildcats are streaking into bowl season, as they started out with a 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS record, including an 0-3 run in conference. In fact, their first two wins were against MAC teams Toledo and Eastern Michigan. They narrowly avoided upset against a bad Arkansas team on Oct. 12 for their first SEC win, but were blanked at Georgia to sit 3-4 SU on Oct. 19. They fell back under .500 at 4-5 with a 17-13 home loss to Tennessee. However, they posted wins over Vanderbilt, Tennessee-Martin and Louisville to close out the year on a high note. Not exactly a murderer's row, but bowl eligibility is bowl eligiblity.

-- Once QB Terry Wilson (knee) went down in September due to a knee injury, the Wildcats had to get creative. Dual-threat QB Sawyer Smith and WR/QB Lynn Bowden Jr. have been under center. The former Troy signal caller Smith has 690 passing yards to lead the team. If you think that's weird, Bowden Jr. is third on the team with 330 passing yards while tied for second with two touchdown throws. He also leads the team in rushing with 1,235 yards and 11 touchdowns while also leading with 30 receptions, 348 yards and one score. Somehow, with a mish-mash offense, they have made it work for more wins than losses.

-- The Wildcats are 80th overall in total yards on offense (391.8), while ranking just 126th in passing yards (117.1). However, they're fourth in the nation with 274.8 yards per game, while ranking 86th in points per game (26.3). Defensively, the Wildcats are stout, allowing just 324.0 total yards (20th), 172.7 passing yards (4th) and 151.3 rushing yards (60th). They yielded just 18.4 PPG to check in 12th in the country.

-- Virginia Tech is 81st in total yards on offense (390.3), 80th in passing yards (217.3), 53rd in rushing yards (172.9) and 52nd in points scored (30.9). Defensively, they're 42nd overall with 360.4 total yards allowed, hilw ranking 27th against the rush (123.4). They're also 45th in points allowed (23.7). If they have trouble, it's against the pass, but that's not a strong suit - or even much of a part - of Kentucky's game.

-- The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site battles. However, they're 3-9 ATS in the past 12 as a favorite, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven vs. SEC foes.

-- The Wildcats have covered six of the past seven games overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning record. UK is also 6-0 ATS in the past six non-conference tilts, but only 2-5 ATS in the previous seven neutral-site battles.

-- The under is 4-1 in Virginia Tech's past five, and 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite. However, the over is 6-2-2 in the past 10 neutral-site games and 5-1-1 in their past seven showings vs. SEC.

-- The under has cashed in four of Kentucky's past five bowl games, and six of their past eight neutral-site battles. The under is also 4-0 in the past four as an underdog.


Sun Bowl (CBS, 2:00 p.m.)

Florida State vs. Arizona State

-- The Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl sees the Arizona Sun Devils (7-5 straight up, 4-7-1 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference facing off against the Florida State Seminoles (6-6 straight up, 4-7-1 against the spread) of the ACC at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Tex.

-- The Sun Devils fired out to a 5-1 SU start after a 38-34 win against Washington State on Oct. 12, but they lost four straight to Utah, UCLA, USC and Oregon State, putting their bowl eligibility in severe peril. A loss in Corvallis, 35-34, on Nov. 16, looked particularly damaging. However, they stunned Oregon 31-28 in Tucson to attain bowl eligibility, and then added to their resume with a win over rival Arizona, 24-14, in the season finale on Nov. 30.

-- The Seminoles qualified for a bowl game, but a .500 record wasn't enough to save the job of head coach Willie Taggart. He is now the head man at Florida Atlantic, and the Seminoles have hired Mike Norvell, formerly of Memphis. However, interim coach Odell Haggins will lead the Seminoles into El Paso. FSU managed to win just two games over bowl teams, 35-24 over Louisville on Sept. 21, and 38-31 at BC on Nov. 9.

-- Arizona State lost its first bowl game under Herm Edwards last season, falling 31-20 to Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl. They have dropped three in a row in the postseason, and they're 4-10 SU in their previous 14 bowl showings. These two teams met back in 1971 in the Fiesta Bowl, with the Sun Devils winning 45-38 behind legendary head coach Frank Kush.

-- FSU obviously has a long and decorated bowl history. Lately it's been a little less decorated, however. They didn't go to a bowl last season, ending the nation's longest active run. They won 42-13 in the Independence Bowl in 2017, and 33-32 over Michigan before that in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30, 2016. The last time the Seminoles faced a Pac-12 team in a bowl game they lost to Oregon, 59-20, in the Rose Bowl in a playoff game. Their last win over a Pac-12 team was the Emerald Bowl over UCLA in 2006, although that win was actually vacated due to ineligible players. And, as mentioned above, they also lost to AZ State in 1971. So technically, they're 0-2 all-time in bowl games vs. Pac-12.

-- The Sun Devils rank 89th in the nation with 379.6 total yards and they're just 114th in rushing yards (126.3). However, the Sun Devils were a respectable 48th in passing yards per game with 253.3, led by QB Jayden Daniels, who improved as the season went on. He passed for 2,748 yards, with a majority going to WR N'Keal Harry's replacement, WR Brandon Aiyuk with 1,192 yards. RB Eno Benjamin also posted a respectabe 1,083 yards when they did run the ball. Defensively, the Sun Devils really struggled against the pass, allowing 270.1 yards in the pass-happy Pac-12, but they were a solid 22nd in the nation against the run at 117.0, and they allowed just 23.1 PPG to rank 41st.

-- The Seminoles rank 65th in total yards per game (403.2), 33rd in passing yards (269.4) and 104th in rushing yards (133.8) with 29.1 PPG to rank 65th. On the defensive side of the ball, the Seminoles were horrific, ranking 99th with 436.0 total yards per game allowed, 120th in passing yards (283.5) and 63rd in rushing yards (152.5) allowed. They coughed up 28.5 PPG to rank 71st in the country.

-- Arizona State is 0-8 ATS in the past eight games as a favorite, and they're 1-6 ATS in the past seven neutral-site battle. They're also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 bowl games, 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six games overall.

-- Florida State is just 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. They're also 0-6 ATS in the past six non-conference games. However, they're 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 bowl games.

-- The Sun Devils have hit the over in four of the past five games overall, and 8-3 in the past 11 neutral-site battles. The over is also 6-2 in the past eight bowl games for AZ State, while going 9-4 in the past 13 as a favorite.

-- The over has connected in four bowl games in a row for FSU, while going 13-6-1 in their past 20 against winning teams. The over is also 7-1 in the past eight neutral-site games and 18-5 in their past 23 non-ACC games.


Liberty Bowl (ESPN, 3:45 p.m.)

Navy vs. Kansas State

-- The Autozone Liberty Bowl features a battle between the Navy Midshipmen (10-2 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference battling the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4 straight-up, 9-3 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tenn.

-- Navy heads into this one on the heels of their 10th victory of the season Dec. 14, topping rival Army in their annual battle by a 31-7 score. It was their third straight win and cover since getting pounded 52-20 at Nore Dame on Nov. 16. Their only other loss, oddly enough, was in this stadium back on Sept. 26 when the Middies fell to Memphis in their first AAC road game. They managed a 3-2 ATS mark in their five true road games this season.

-- Kansas State opened with three victories, but then they slipped against Oklahoma State and Baylor to fall to 3-2 SU/ATS. They rebounded with wins against TCU, Oklahoma and Kansas, and they were a 23.5-point underdog in that game against the Sooners at home. They were dumped by Texas and West Virginia, but finished up strong with wins over Texas Tech and a good Iowa State team, ending up 6-2 ATS in the final eight outings.

-- Navy's bowl history dates all the way back to 1924, when they tied Washington 14-14 in the Rose Bowl. It hasn't been quite as long since they were in the Liberty Bowl, but it's been a while. They fell to Ohio State by a 31-28 score in the Liberty Bowl in their final bowl under George Welsh on Dec. 30, 1981. While they'll now play Navy on a fairly regular basis in the AAC, they still don't have a long history at the stadium. The Middies are 4-1 SU across the past five bowl appearances under Ken Niumatalolo. The last time they faced a Big 12 team in a bowl game, they faced Missouri (then in the Big 12) in the Texas Bowl by a 35-13 score on Dec. 31, 2009. They also lost to Texas Tech in 2003 in the Houston Bowl, so officially they're 0-2 SU vs. Big 12 in bowl season.

-- K-State has appeared in 21 bowl games in school history. They're currently on a two-game winning streak, and they have never won three straight bowl appearances in school history. This will also be their first appearance against an AAC team. This will also be their first bowl appearance under Chris Klieman, and just the third in their history without Bill Snyder at the helm. The Wildcats appeared in the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2, 2016, falling to Arkansas by a 45-23 score.

-- The Midshipmen are 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite. They're also 3-1-1 ATS in the past non-conference tilts, and 5-0 ATS in the past five bowl appearances.

-- The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning teams. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four outside of the conference, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four in the month of December.

-- However, K-State is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 bowl games, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six as a bowl 'dog.

-- Navy is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games overall, and 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. However, the under is 14-2 in the past 16 neutral-site games as a favorite, with the under hitting in 11 of their past 14 neutral-site games overall. The over is 9-4 in their past 13 bowl games.

-- The under is 5-1 in K-State's past six against winning teams, and 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall.

[Udog]

Wednesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
Joe Williams

Citrus Bowl (ABC, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan vs. Alabama

-- The Michigan Wolverines (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference will ring in the new year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference in the VRBO Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla. at Camping World Stadium.

-- Michigan regitered a few nice victories during the season, including wins over bowl teams Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State and Indiana, as well as a 45-14 whitewashing of Notre Dame back on Oct. 26. However, they also showed how far away they are from the College Football Playoffs, as they were blown out 35-14 at Wisconsin on Sept. 21, and 56-27 in the season finale on their home field against rival Ohio State, while also slipping 28-21 at Penn State on Oct. 19. That blowout loss to the Buckeyes snapped a 5-0 ATS run from Oct. 19-Nov. 23. They also closed on a 3-0 'over' streak, and 6-1 run in the final seven.

-- Alabama is a perennial national championship contender, and anything less than an appearance in the playoffs is viewed as a huge disappointment. That's where the Crimson Tide appeared to be rolling, even after a 46-41 loss to LSU on Nov. 9. Certainly the Tide gave the Tigers their biggest test of the season. However, that made the road to the CFP much more difficult since a trip to the SEC Championship Game was off the table, and a 48-45 loss at Auburn in the finale blocked the road completely. They ended up just 2-2 ATS in the final four, and 5-6 ATS in their final 11 of the season.

-- Each of these teams obviously have long and extensive bowl histories. The Wolverines have enjoyed their previous appearances in Orlando, as Jim Harbaugh's group squeezed Florida 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1, 2016. They also topped Florida 41-35 when the bowl was called the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 1, 2008. They made back-to-back appearances in this bowl in 2001 and 2002, topping Auburn and losing to Tennessee in 2002. They topped Arkansas 45-31 on Jan. 1, 1999, too.

-- These teams have met a handful of times during bowl season. The last time was a duel between the Tide's RB Shaun Alexander and the Wolverines with QB Tom Brady. The result was a 35-34 win by Michigan in overtime as a result of a missed extra point. They also met in the Outback Bowl, with the Tide coming out on top by a 17-14 score on Jan. 1, 1997, while the Wolverines won the Hall of Fame Bowl (now Outback) on Jan. 1, 1988 by a 28-24 margin. So Alabama will be looking to even the all-time ledger in bowl games at 2-2.

-- Alabama ranked seventh in total yards with 513.5 per game, while checking in third in passing yards per game at 343.5. They weren't particularly special rushing the football, ranking 57th with 170.0 yards per game, but they were second in the country with 48.3 PPG. Defensively they were solid as usual, ranking 17th in total yards (318.8), 10th in passing yards (183.4) and 36th in rushing yards (135.3) allowed while yielding 18.8 PPG to rank 15th.

-- Of course, QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) was under center for a majority of that time. He will skip this bowl game, and it will be QB Mac Jones leading the way. The team will be without CB Trevon Diggs and LB Terrell Lewis, who elected to skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft, but projected first-rounders WRs Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith will also suit up for Nick Saban's group.

-- Michigan wasn't quite as dangerous on offense, ranking an average 68th in total yards (402.7), while ending up 50th in passing yards (252.3) and rushing yards (150.3), while scoring 33.0 PPG to check in 38th. Defensively, they had it on lockdown, ranking seventh in total yards allowed (293.9), while finishing fifth in passing yards (173.8) allowed, 23rd in rushing yards allowed (120.2) and 18th in points allowed (19.5).

-- Michigan hasn't won a neutral-site or road game against an Associated Press Top 15 team in each of the past 19 outings since head coach Lloyd Carr's final game against Florida in the Capital One Bowl on Jan. 1, 2008, 41-35.

-- The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in the past five games against winning teams, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall. However, Michigan is 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 non-conference tilts.

-- The Tide are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. However, they're 6-1 ATS in the previous seven against Big Ten teams.

-- The over has cashed in four straight bowl games for Michigan, while going 8-0 in their past eight showings against SEC foes. The over is also 12-2 in their past 14 neutral-site games, and 4-0 in the previous four bowl games, too.

-- The over has connected in seven of the past 10 non-conference tilts for Bama, and 12-5 in their past 17 bowl games. The over is also 4-1 in the previous five against teams with a winning overall record.


Outback Bowl (ESPN, 1:00 p.m.)

Minnesota vs. Auburn

-- The Outback Bowl has the Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-2 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference meeting the Auburn Tigers (9-3 straight-up, 9-3 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.

-- Minnesota surprised this season, and was unbeaten into mid-November while they flirted with the potential of a trip to the College Football Playoffs. However, all of those considerations ended with a 23-19 loss at Iowa, and they also had their doors blown off against Wisconsin, 38-17, losing Paul Bunyan's Axe in the season finale. Losing Floyd of Rosedale and Paul Bunyan's Axe in the same season is likely a huge disappointment to Minnesota despite the double-digit wins.

-- Auburn had a near-playoff experience this season. They kicked off the campaign with a 27-21 win over Oregon on a neutral-site, winning and cover each of their first five. They slipped up 24-13 at Florida on Oct. 5, but remaining in the mix until a 23-20 loss at LSU on Oct. 26. Still, that was an impressive showing, and served notice that they can play with anyone in the land. They also fell 21-14 to Georgia on Nov. 16, but capped off their season with an impressive 48-45 win over Alabama in the season finale to roll into bowl season on a very high note.

-- Minnesota claims seven national championships, including 1904, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940, 1941 and 1960. The last time they won it all, Dwight D. Eisenhower was president, so yeah, it's been a while, but they have a long and storied football history. However, in that long history they have never faced Auburn on the gridiron, so Wednesday's game will be a first. The Golden Gophers lost seven straight bowl games from 2005 through 2015, but have rattled off three bowl wins in a row over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl (2015), 17-12 over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl (2016) ad 34-10 over Georgia Tech last season in P.J. Fleck's first bowl, another Quick Lane Bowl victory. This is their first appearance on New Year's Day since losing 33-17 to Missouri in the Citrus Bowl, however, another SEC team. They haven't beaten an SEC team since topping Alabama Dec. 31, 2004 in the Music City Bowl under Glen Mason.

-- The Golden Gophers rank 50th in total yards (426.8) on offense, while ranking 51st in passing yards (251.2). They were also 47th in rushing yards (175.7) while checking in 23rd in points scored (34.3). Defensively the Golden Gophers were very underrated, ranking 14th with 312.8 yards per game, 12th in passing yards allowed (184.9) and 28th in rushing yards allowed (127.9). They also yielded just 22.4 PPG to rank a respectable 35th.

-- The Tigers struggled in the pass game, as freshman QB Bo Nix had some consistency issues. They ranked 51st in total yards (421.4), while ranking just 85th in passing yards (210.1) per contest. They ran well, piling up 211.3 yards, while scoring 34.0 PPG to rank 29th. On defense, they ranked 19th in total yards allowed (323.9), 41st in passing yards (208.4) per game and 20th in rushing yards (115.5) yielded, while coughing up just 18.6 PPG to rank 13th.

-- The Golden Gophers covered seven of the past nine games overall, while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight games as an underdog. They were 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine non-conference tilts, too.

-- The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in the past 13 games overall, while cashing in five of the previous seven against winning teams. They're also an impressive 6-0 ATS in the past six non-conference battles, while connecting in 10 of the past 12 games as a favorite.

-- The over has hit in five of the past six overall for the Golden Gophers, although the under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five neutral-site games and 7-2 in the past nine against winning teams. The under is 13-6 in the past 19 non-conference tilts, too.

-- The under is 7-1-2 in the previous 10 neutral-site battles, 4-1 in the past five games overall and 4-1-1 in the past six bowl outings. The under is also 18-6-2 in the past 26 non-conference battles, while going 24-11-1 in the past 36 against winning sides.

[Udog]

Thursday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Birmingham Bowl (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Boston College vs. Cincinnati

-- The Boston College Eagles (6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference will take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala.

-- The Eagles head into this one a mess. Steve Addazio was fired, so interim coach Richie Gunnell will steer the ship for the Eagles in Birmingham. In addition, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian took the job at Northwestern, so he isn't with the team either. If that wasn't bad enough, ACC rushing leader RB A.J. Dillon has elected to sit out the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft and avoid risking an injury. So, needless to say, the .500 Eagles are a bit shorthanded going in.

-- Boston College's bowl history was amazing from the 2000 Aloha Bowl through the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl, as they rattled off eight consecutive postseason wins. That luck dried up in a hurry, however, starting with the 2008 Music City Bowl. They enter play on Thursday with losses in six of their past seven bowl games, with only a 36-30 win in the 2016 Quick Lane Bowl as the exception.

-- The Bearcats registered 10 victories this season, and they are looking for their second straight 11-win season under head coach Luke Fickell. There was some talk about UC being a potential Group of Five representatitve, but Memphis quickly squelched that talk with a 34-24 win in the regular-season finale at the Liberty Bowl, and then a 29-24 loss the following week in the same location against the Tigers in the AAC Championship Game. It's a little surprising that the Bearcats tumbled all the way to Birmingham against a .500 team, but at least they get a chance against a Power Five opponent.

-- Cincinnati did cover those two games against Memphis, at least, although they were 1-4 ATS in the previous five outings. They haven't covered three or more consecutive games since four straight covers from Sept. 14-Oct. 12.

-- Boston College started out 3-1 SU, but they won just once in a four-game stretch from Sept. 28-Oct. 26 to slip to 4-4. They did pick up a huge win at Syracuse, 58-27, to move to the precipice of bowl eligibility on Nov. 2. However, a disappointing loss against Florida State, and a beatdown at Notre Dame put their bowl hopes in jeopardy. They played hard, though, and won outright as nine-point underdogs in Pittsburgh in the regular-season finale.

-- The Bearcats rank just 85th in total offense with 385.0 total yards per game, and 105th in passing yards per contest at 187.4. On the ground, that's their strength, piling up 197.6 yards per game to rank 33rd. RB Michael Warren II rolled up 1,160 yards and 14 touchdowns, so he is the star for UC. Defensively they're just so-so, ranking 52nd in total yards (376.6), 80th in passing yards (233.2), 48th in rushing yards (143.4) and 30th in points (21.7) allowed per game.

-- While BC ranks 26th in total yards per game (450.8), that can be ignored a bit due to the absence of the dynamic Dillon. They ranked sixth in the country on the ground with 267.4 yards per game, but again... They will have to rely on the pass game a little more, and that's where they struggled since QB Anthony Brown (knee) went down with a season-ending injury in mid-October. Defensively, the Eagles were a disaster, ranking 125th in total yards allowed (480.3), 126th in passing yards (299.6) and 96th in points allowed (31.7).

-- Boston College heads in 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 as an underdog, and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games. However, they're 1-5 ATS in the previous six non-conference battles and 2-7 ATS in their past nine bowl outings.

-- Cincinnati has failed to cover in four consecutive bowl games, and four straight neutral-site contests.

-- The over has hit in five of the past seven games overall for BC, and seven of their previous 10 non-conference tilts. The over is also 4-0 in the past four bowl games.

-- The over has connected in five of the past seven bowl games for UC, while going 5-2 in their past seven vs. ACC foes. However, the under is 4-1 in the past five as a favorite, and 39-19-1 in the previous 59 overall.


Gator Bowl (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Indiana vs. Tennessee

-- The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl has the Indiana Hoosiers (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference meeting the Tennessee Volunteers (7-5 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla.

-- Indiana won eight games, and it seems like they did so rather quietly. Not many people talked about them, but here they are in a prominent bowl game in primetime against a Power 5 team. The Hoosiers were dusted 51-10 by Ohio State at 'The Rock' on Sept. 14, and they fell at Michigan State 40-31 on Sept. 28. Perhaps the reason no one is talking about the Hoosiers is because they won the games they were supposed to, and fell against teams they were supposed to lose against. In fact, they were 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS in eight games against non-bowl teams, and 0-4 SU/2-2 ATS in their four outings against bowl teams.

-- Tennessee stumbled out of the chute with a 38-30 loss at home against Georgia State in their season opener, falling straight-up as a 24.5-point favorite. That had the natives calling for Jeremy Pruitt's head, and it didn't simmer down after a miraculous comeback by BYU in Knoxville on Sept. 7, and an eventual 29-26 loss in overtime for the Vols. They were 0-2 SU/ATS. They beat the brakes off of FCS Chattanooga, 45-0, on Sept. 14, but no one was satisfied. They followed that win with a 31-point loss at Florida and a 29-point loss at Georgia, slipping to 1-4 SU/ATS, and the hot seat was turned up to lava intensity for Pruitt. But a strange thing happened on Oct. 12 against Mississippi State. The Vols won 20-10, perhaps saving their season as five-point 'dogs. They fell, rather expectedly, at Alabama by a 35-13 score, but they put up a pretty solid effort and covered. They used that momentum to springboard into wins over South Carolina and UAB. In fact, since that Bama loss on the 19th of October, the Power T hasn't lost since. They topped rival Kentucky on the road, won at Missouri and ended up with a resounding 28-10 win over rival Vanderbilt. Is Tennessee now 'back'? Well, they're 3-5 SU in eight games against bowl teams, but they do come in on a five-game heater.

-- Tennessee's bowl history goes all the way back to the Orange Bowl in 1939 - and 1931, if you include the New York Charity Game against New York University, which is considered a bowl game by some. They have won three straight bowl games, including a trip to Jacksonville and a win over Iowa, 45-28, back on Jan. 2, 2015. They have appeared in this game five total times, but four of the trips came from 1957-1973. They're 3-2 SU all-time in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl.

-- Indiana's bowl history isn't as extensive, and their success is even shorter. They haven't won a postseason game since the 1991 Copper Bowl when they blanked Baylor 24-0. This will be their first-ever appearance in the Gator. In fact, this is their first-ever appearance in a bowl game in the state of Florida, which is rather surprising given the conference's long-time tie-ins with the Outback (Hall of Fame), Citrus (CapitalOne), Gator (TaxSlayer) Bowls, etc.

-- The Vols ranked 100th in total yards (365.0), 77th in passing yards (220.0) and 88th in rushing yards (145.0) per game while posting 24.3 PPG to check in 97th. Defensively, the Vols were pretty nasty despite a difficult schedule, ranking 28th in total yards allowed (337.1), 17th in passing yards (191.3) and 29th in points (21.7) allowed per game.

-- The Hoosiers ranked 31st in total yards on offense (444.0), 13th in passing yards (308.7) and 41st in points scored (32.6). They struggled on the ground, however, ranking 100th in the nation with 135.3 yards per game. They lost QB Michael Penix Jr. (collarbone) to a collarbone early in early November, and that forced QB Peyton Ramsey into action. He had 2,227 passing yards to end up leading the Hoosiers.

-- Indiana leading rusher Stevie Scott III posted 845 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he is a question mark for this game with a leg ailment. Backup RB Sampson James is also on the injury report, questionable due to an ankle injury. The Hoosiers were led in the receiving game by WR Whop Philyor, who cracked 1,000 yards.

-- The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning record, but they're just 1-5 ATS in the past six neutral-site battles.

-- The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in the past seven games overall, but 4-10 ATS in the past 14 as a favorite. They're also 6-2 ATS in the previous eight neutral-site game battles.

-- The over is 5-1 in the past six for Indiana, and 5-0 in their past five as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in their past five non-conference tilts, though.

-- The under hit in the final four for the Vols, but the over is 5-0 in their past five bowl games and 9-1 in the past 10 neutral-site affairs.

[Udog]

Potato Bowl Preview
Joe Williams

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Ohio vs. Nevada

-- The Ohio Bobcats (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference will battle the Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5 straight up, 5- against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

-- The Bobcats have won their past two bowl game appearances, including last season's 27-0 win over San Diego State, a Mountain West team, at the Frisco Bowl. They also won their only previous appearance in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, a narrow 24-23 win over Utah State on Dec. 17, 2011.

-- Nevada won their bowl appearance last season, too, topping Arkansas State 16-13 in the Arizona Bowl, and like Ohio, they have also won each of their past two postseason appearances. They haven't played in Boise for a bowl game since Dec. 30, 2008, a 42-35 loss to Maryland when the game was called the Humanitarian Bowl. They also lost by one point, 21-20, to Miami (Fla.) on Dec. 31, 2006 when the game was sponsored by MPC Computers.

-- Ohio heads into this game ranked 33rd in total yards (443.3), 72nd in passing yards (226.8) and 22nd in rushing yards (216.5) while checking in 20th with 34.7 points per game. Defensively, the Bobcats allowed 401.7 total yards per game to end up 76th in the nation, they were 62nd against the pass (223.8) and 82nd against the run (177.9) while yielding 27.0 PPG.

-- Nevada ranked just 103rd in the land in total yards per game (360.0), while ending up 62nd in pass (236.5) and 117th in rushing yards (123.5) per outing. They alos posted just 21.3 PPG to finish 111th. Defensively they were so-so, but the stats were skewed due to a pair of blowout losses, a 77-6 setback at Oregon and a 54-3 beating from Hawaii.

-- The Wolf Pack have more issues, too, as S Austin Arnold, CB Daniel Brown (team-high four interceptions) and NT Hausia Sekona were each suspended for this game due to a post-game brawl against UNLV. All three were starters.

-- Ohio is 4-0 ATS in the past four bowl games, and 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral-site affairs. They're also 18-8 ATS in the past 26 non-conference battles. However, the Bobcats are 2-7 ATS in the previous nine as a favorite.

-- Nevada is 3-1-1 ATS in the previous five bowl games, and they're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four neutral-site games as an underdog.

-- The over is 5-2 in the past seven overall for Ohio, while going 11-4 in their past 15 non-conference games. The over is also 5-2 in the past seven against winning teams, while going 5-1 in the past six as a favorite.

-- The over is 5-2 in Nevada's past seven non-conference tilts, but the under is 6-1 in their past seven bowl games and 7-3 in the past 10 as an underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, JANUARY 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OHIO at NEV 03:30 PM

NEV +9.5

O 60.5

[Udog]

Armed Forces Bowl Preview
Joe Williams

Armed Forces Bowl (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)

Southern Miss vs. Tulane

-- The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from Conference USA will battle the Tulane Green Wave (6-6 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Tex.

-- The Golden Eagles had five losses this season, but two of them came against SEC teams back in September, including a 49-7 shredding by Alabama on Sept. 21. They managed to post wins in five of their first six conference games before suffering losses to C-USA bowl teams Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic in the final two games, both by 17 or more points.

-- Tulane had a tale of two seasons. They opened the season 5-1 SU/ATS, with only a loss to Auburn by a 24-6 margin, to show for their first six games. However, things went off the rails Oct. 19 in Memphis, losing 47-17, and that touched off a 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS run to finish off the regular season. However, three of those losses were one-possession games, including a pair of three-point losses to Navy and UCF, two bowl teams.

-- Southern Miss has been to 26 total bowls, and the history has been mixed lately. They were crushed 42-13 by Florida State at the Independence Bowl on Dec. 27, 2017 in their most recent showing. These teams are relative neighbors, but they have never been together in a bowl game before. It is the first appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl for the Golden Eagles, although they've played four previous bowl games in the state of Texas. Those didn't go well, as they were 0-4 SU in those games.

-- Tulane has appeared in 13 previous bowl games, and they were 2-7 SU in the first nine. However, they're 3-1 SU in their past four. They have appeared in a bowl game just once, falling in the Bluebonnet Bowl Dec. 29, 1973 by a 47-7 score against Houston in the Astrodome.

-- The Green Wave offense ranked 24th in the nation with 456.8 total yards per game, and they were 11th in rushing with 251.4 yards per contest. They also scored 33.3 PPG to check in 35th in the country. Defensively they were so-so, allowing 378.9 total yards per game (55th), 214.0 passing yards per game (50th) and 164.9 rushing yards per game (75th). They also allowed 27.4 PPG to rank 65th.

-- The Golden Eagles were 59th in total yards (411.3), while ranking 23rd in passing offense with 288.6 yards. They weren't very good on the ground, posting 122.8 rushing yards per game to rank 118th, and posting just 27.8 PPG to rank 74th. Defensively, they allowed 350.3 total yards per game to rank 36th, and they were 18th against the run (111.8). They yielded just 25.9 PPG to rank 54th in the nation, too.

-- Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham passed for 3,329 yards, while WR Quez Watkins posted 1,024 yards. That's the combination.

-- Tulane RB Corey Dauphine (wrist) is listed as questionable, as is RB Darius Bradwell (foot). Leading rusher Justin McMillan (704 rushing yards, 12 total touchdowns) is good to go, however.

-- Southern Miss is 1-4-1 ATS in their past six bowl games.

-- Tulane is 7-1 ATS in the past eight games as a favorite, while going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 against Conference USA. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five against non-conference teams, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 overall.

-- USM hit the under in each of their past five overall, while going 9-4-1 in the past 14 non-conference tilts. The over is 5-2 in their past seven bowl games, however.

-- For Tulane, the under is 5-0-1 in their past six against Conference USA foes.

-- In this series, the favorite has cashed in four of the past five meetings, and USM is 4-1 ATS in the previous five clashes. The under is also 6-1 in the past seven in this series.

[Udog]

LendingTree Bowl Preview
Joe Williams

LendingTree Bowl (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Louisiana vs. Miami (Ohio)

-- The Miami-Ohio Redhawks (8-5 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference (MAC) will square off with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (10-3 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) from the Sun Belt Conference in the LendingTree Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala.

-- Miami heads into this one after their stunning victory over Central Michigan in the MAC Championship Game. They were underdogs by just 5.5 points, but they entered the game with some injury issues, and CMU was red-hot on offense before that battle in Detroit. Miami has won six of the past seven games overall, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven outings. However, against bowl teams this season, Miami is just 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS.

-- The Redhawks do not have an extensive bowl history, but they will still be making their third-ever appearance in Mobile. They're 7-4 SU in their previous 11 bowl appearances, including a 35-21 win over Middle Tennessee on Jan. 6, 2011 in this bowl game, then named the GoDaddy.com Bowl. They also topped Louisville 49-28 on Dec. 18, 2003, when this game was named the GMAC Bowl. This will be Miami's first-ever bowl game appearance against a Sun Belt Conference team.

-- Louisiana (previously known as Louisiana-Lafayette) has made six bowl appearances, with five of those appearances coming in the New Orleans Bowl, with one showing in the Cure Bowl last season. They fell to Tulane by a 41-24 score in that bowl game on Dec. 15, 2018, but they're 4-2 SU in their previous six bowl contests. This will be the first bowl game against a MAC opponent for the Ragin' Cajuns, too.

-- Miami's offense has really struggled this season, although they might have found their quarterback of the future with QB Brett Gabbert, brother of NFL signal Blaine Gabbert. He ended up with 2,163 passing yards to lead the team, while RB Jaylon Bester racked up 689 yards with 12 total touchdowns. Still, they were just 122nd in total yards on offense at 307.4, with 172.8 passing yards (114th), and they posted 134.5 rushing yards per game to rank 102nd. Overall, they posted 24.7 points per game to rank 95th in the nation. Defensively, they were 58th in total yards (380.6), 37th in passing yards (206.4) and 81st in rushing yards (174.2) allowed, while allowing 28.2 PPG to rank 70th.

-- The heavily favored Cajuns had a powerful offense during the season, posting 501.3 total yards per game to rank eighth in the country, and they were seventh in rushing yards with 265.3 yards per game on the ground. The passing was just so-so with 236.0 yards per game to rank 64th. They scored 38.8 points per game to rank 11th in the country. On defense, they were 50th with 373.4 total yards per game, and they were 85th against the run with 179.5 yards per game. They were hard on opposing pass games, allowing just 193.8 yards per game to rank 18th. They also allowed only 19.9 PPG to check in 20th overall.

-- The star for Louisiana is RB Elijah Mitchell, who posted 1,092 yards with 15 touchdowns, while QB Levi Lewis managed 2,804 yards through the air.

-- ULL has posted a 17-7 ATS mark in the past 24 games overall, and they're 10-4 ATS in the past 14 games as a favorite. The Cajuns are also 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference games, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven neutral-site battles.

-- The Redhawks have cashed in five of the past seven games overall, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four neutral-site games. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five as an underdog, but they're 2-10 ATS in the past 12 non-conference games.

-- For ULL, the over has connected in 35 of their past 51 non-conference games, while hitting in five of the past six field turf surfaces. The under is 6-2 in their past eight games overall, however, while going 6-1 in the past seven as a favorite. The under is also 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning record.

-- The under is 5-1 in Miami's past six games overall, and 6-1 in their past seven neutral-site games. The under is 6-1 in the past seven neutral-site games as a 'dog, too, but the over is 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles.