NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Army/Navy & Bowl Season (Sat., Dec. 14 - Mon., Jan. 6)

[Udog]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Dec. 20

Matchup Skinny
Edge

BUFFALO vs. CHARLOTTE (Bahamas Bowl)...MAC teams struggled again vs. line in bowls LY (2-4), though Buffalo did cover 6 of last 7 this season. Charlottte won last five SU (4-1 vs. line n those). Both teams “over” 8-4 this season, and Bulls “over” 18-8 since 2018.
“Over” based on “totals” trends.


KENT STATE vs. UTAH STATE (Frisco Bowl)...First Golden Flashes bowl since 2012. Utags a bit disappointing this season but were 5-2 as chalk. Kent State covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 TY, and was 6-2 as dog.
Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.


Saturday, December 21

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at SAN DIEGO STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...Aztecs “under” 12-1 since last 2018. SDSU also 4-1 “under” its last five bowls. Aztecs 5-1 SU away in 2019 but just 4-11 as chalk since LY (0-8 in 2018). Jim McElwain covered 9 of last 11 this season and 5 of last 6 as dog.
Slight to CMU and “under,” based on team and ‘totals” trends.


LIBERTY vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Cure Orlando Bowl)...First-ever bowl for Liberty. Flames covered 7 of last 10 this season but just 2-3 as dog. GS only 2-4 vs. spread away from Statesboro in 2019, and Eagles “over” 13-6 since midway in 2018.
“Over” based on “totals” trends.


SMU at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Boca Raton Bowl)...SMU cooled off down stretch after covering first five TY, only 3-4 vs. spread last seven. Though mustangs were 5-1 SU vs. line away this season. FAU 7-2 vs. spread last nine in 2019, also won and covered 4 of last 5 at Boca Raton. Mustangs 9-3 “over” in 2019.
FAU and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. ARKANSAS STATE (Camellia Bowl)...FIU was only 4-8 vs. lin3 this season but did cover last two, after 10-3 spread success a year ago. Butch Davis 2-3 as dog TY after 10-4 mark in role previous two seasons. Ark State 2-5 as chalk this season and just 1-4 SU and vs. spread in bowls past five years.
Slight to FIU, based on extended trends.


WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)... Huskies 5-1 vs. line last six outside of Pac and 7-3 as chalk in 2019 Petersen 2-3 vs. line in bowls with Huskies. Boise has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls and Harsin 5-1 last six as dog. Also 24-11 vs. number last 35 away from home since 2015. MW has won and covered last 3 LV Bowls.
Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.


UAB vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (New Orleans Bowl)...UAB only 2-4 vs. spread away from Legion Field TY and 0-3 as dog after 9-4 mark getting points in 2017-18. App 9-4 vs. spread TY, 22-10-1 vs. line since late 2017. Mounties also 5-1 vs. line away TY.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.


Monday, December 23

MARSHALL vs. UCF (Gasparilla Bowl)...UCF dropped 7 of last 9 vs. line TY and 4 of last 5 away from Orlando. Though Knights 7-8-1 vs. spread previous two seasons (counting a W for Cincy game in 2017). Herd only 9-16 vs. line past two seasons but Doc Holliday is 10-3 as dog since 2017 (2-1 TY)and MU has won and covered its last seven bowls (Doc 6-0).
Marshall, based on team trends.

[Udog]

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
Brian Edwards

The Bowl Season starts Friday with a doubleheader. The action starts in the Bahamas, where Buffalo out of the MAC will face Charlotte from Conference USA. The night game is the Frisco Bowl in Texas, where Utah State out of the Mountain West Conference will take on Kent State from the MAC. Let’s break down both games before getting into some Bonus Nuggets…

Bahamas Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m.)
Buffalo vs. Charlotte

-- As of early Thursday morning, most books had Buffalo (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 52. The 49ers were +200 on the money line. For first-half wagers, the Bulls were 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 26.

-- Buffalo is bowling for the fourth time in program history and is in the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time. The Bulls are 0-3 both SU and ATS in three bowl games, however, including a 42-32 loss to Troy as one-point favorites at last year’s Dollar General Bowl.

-- Lance Leipold’s team returned only five starters on offense and three on defense. Star QB Tyree Jackson turned pro a year early, starting WR K.J. Osborn grad transferred to Miami and starting TE Tyler Mabry grad transferred to Maryland. Jackson was the 2018 MAC Offensive Player of the Year and Osborn was a second-team All-MAC selection in ’18. Nevertheless, Buffalo won five of its last six games by double-digit margins to earn another trip to the postseason.

-- Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. The only outright defeats during this span are a 30-27 loss at Kent State and a 21-20 overtime loss to Ohio as a three-point home underdog. The Bulls got a quality non-conference victory in Week 4 on Sept. 21, drilling Temple 38-22 as 14-point home underdogs. They led 10-7 at Penn State early in the third quarter until the Nittany Lions got a pick-six to swing the momentum their way for good. PSU would win 45-13 and even cover by a hook as a 31.5-point home favorite, but the stats told a story of a misleading final score. Buffalo had a 22-14 advantage in first downs and a 429-357 edge in total offense.

-- Buffalo sophomore RB Jaret Patterson rushed for 1,013 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, as a freshman in 2018. He garnered second-team All-MAC honors. Patterson was the catalyst in UB’s 49-7 home win over Bowling Green in the regular-season finale, producing 298 rushing yards and six TDs on 26 carries. He earned first-team All-MAC honors this year, rushing for 1,626 yards and 17 TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Patterson also had 13 receptions for 209 yards and one TD. He’s joined by teammate, senior OT Evin Ksiezarczyk, as a first-team All-MAC choice.

-- Two other Buffalo offensive linemen, junior OT Kayode Awosika and senior OG Paul Nosworthy, were second-team All-MAC picks. In addition, junior WR Antonio Nunn garnered third-team All-MAC honors after catching 44 balls for 634 yards and five TDs.

-- Buffalo had the MAC’s best defense, limiting opponents to an average of just 22.3 points per game. This unit is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, fourth against the run and No. 21 versus the pass. The defensive leaders are senior free safety Joey Banks and junior DEs Taylor Riggins and Malcolm Koonce. All three earned first-team All-MAC honors. Banks had a team-best 76 tackles (52 solo), 3.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions for 70 return yards and one TD, one sack and one forced fumble. Riggins recorded 44 tackles (23 solo), 8.5 sacks, six QB hurries, 1.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, while Koonce produced 29 tackles, seven sacks, four QB hurries, two TFL’s and two forced fumbles.

-- There were three Buffalo players selected as second-team All-MAC members, including OLB Kadofi Wright (17 solo tackles, 11 assists, two interceptions, two sacks, one forced fumble and one pick-six), DL Ledarius Mack (14 solo tackles, five assists, seven sacks, four TFL’s, three forced fumbles and one 35-yard scoop-and-score TD) and junior strong safety Tyrone Hill (47 solo tackles, 18 assists, nine passes broken up and 2.5 TFL’s).

-- Buffalo sophomore QB Matt Myers went down with a season-ending injury on Sept. 28. He was completing merely 46.7 percent of his throws for 602 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since then, the Bulls are 5-2 with third-year sophomore Kyle Vantrease as their starting signal caller. Again, the two defeats were by four combined points. Vantrease has connected on 60.0 percent of his passes for 1,116 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has five rushing TDs.

-- Buffalo is +2 in turnover margin, coughing up eight turnovers and getting 10 takeaways.

-- Charlotte (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) didn’t even start its football program until 2013, so it’s no surprise that this is the school’s first appearance in a bowl game. The 49ers bring a five-game winning streak to the Bahamas, and they’re 4-1 ATS in that span.

-- After six seasons at the helm, Brad Lambert was replaced by Will Healy as Charlotte’s new head coach. The 33-year-old Healy in the second youngest FBS head coach. His team is off a 38-22 win at Old Dominion as a 10.5-point ‘chalk’ in the regular-season finale. Senior RB Benny LeMay was the catalyst, rushing for 105 yards and two TDs on 18 carries. Sophomore QB Chris Reynolds completed 9-of-12 passes for 166 yards and two TDs with one interception. Reynolds also had 96 rushing yards on 11 attempts.

-- Charlotte went 4-4 ATS with three outright wins in eight games as an underdog. The 49ers failed to cover the number in losses by double-digit margins at Clemson (52-10), vs. FAU (45-27), at FIU (48-23) and at Western Kentucky (30-14). However, they’ve won outright in their last three games as home puppies, beating North Texas (39-38), Middle Tennessee (34-20) and Marshall (24-13) at Jerry Richardson Stadium.

-- Reynolds, who started six games as a freshman in 2018, has connected on 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,366 yards with a 21/10 TD-INT ratio. He also has 757 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.4 YPC average. LeMay, a first-team All-C-USA selection, ranks second in school history in career rushing yards (3,002). He’s run for 1,027 yards this year, averaging 5.7 YPC with nine rushing scores. LeMay has 19 catches for 242 yards and four TDs.

-- Sophomore WR Victor Tucker leads Charlotte with 49 receptions for 848 yards and two TDs. Sophomore WR Cameron Dollar has 37 catches for 551 yards and two TDs, while junior WR Tyler Ringwood has snagged 20 balls for 331 yards and five TDs.

-- The Charlotte defense is led by senior DE Alex Highsmith, who garnered first-team All-C-USA honors for the second straight season. Highsmith had 40 solo tackles, 28 assists, 14 sacks (second in the nation), 7.5 TFL’s, eight QB hurries, three PBU and one forced fumble. Sophomore DE Markees Watts had 28 solo stops, 23 assists, 9.5 sacks, six QB hurries, three TFL’s and three forced fumbles.

-- Charlotte senior safety Marquavis Gibbs (undisclosed) and senior LB Jeff Gemmell (ankle) are both listed as ‘questionable’ vs. Buffalo. Gibbs produced a team-high 94 tackles (48 solo), four PBU, two QB hurries, one TFL and 0.5 sacks, while Gemmell contributed 80 tackles (33 solo), 5.5 TFL’s, two PBU, one interception, one sack, one QB hurry and one forced fumble.

-- Buffalo redshirt freshman RB Dylan McDuffie is suspended vs. Kent State. In seven games, he ran 23 times for 150 rushing yards, and McDuffie also had three catches for 25 yards and one TD.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in five consecutive Buffalo games to improve to 8-4 overall. The last five combined scores have produced 56, 79, 57, 57 and 63 points.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-4 overall for the 49ers, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six contests.

-- The forecast in Nassau from weather.com indicates rain on Thursday night and early Friday morning, so the field conditions could be a little wet. However, by game time, there’s only a 25-percent chance of rain with temperatures in the upper 70s. The thing to watch, though, is the wind, which is expected to be blowing at 25 miles per hour.

-- Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern.


Frisco Bowl (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Kent State at Utah State

-- This is the Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl that’s played in Frisco, Texas. As of Thursday morning, most books had Utah State (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 67.5. The Golden Flashes were +200 on the money line.

-- When Matt Wells left to take the Texas Tech job after leading the Aggies to a second double-digit win total during his six-year tenure, Utah State hired its old coach Gary Andersen for a second tour of duty in Logan. Andersen had led the Aggies to an 11-2 record in 2012 during the Chuckie Keeton Era, helping him get the Wisconsin job. However, after posting a 20-7 record for the Badgers in 2013 and ’14, he abruptly left to take an inferior job at Oregon State. Andersen ended up quitting on the Beavers in the middle of his third season when they were 1-5 for the year and 7-23 overall on his watch.

-- Utah State finished 2018 with an 11-2 SU record and a 9-3-1 ATS ledger, but it returned only two starters from an offense that averaged 47.5 PPG. The good news was that one of the starters coming back was junior QB Jordan Love, a second-team All-MWC pick last season when he threw for 3,567 yards with a stellar 32/6 TD-INT ratio. Love and leading rusher Gerold Bright were arrested this past weekend for misdemeanor possession of marijuana. Nevertheless, according to an ESPN report from Wednesday night, Love and Bright practiced Wednesday and are NOT going to be suspended vs. Kent State.

-- Utah State won three of its last four games both SU and ATS, including a 38-25 win at New Mexico as a 12-point road favorite in its regular-season finale. The Aggies led 31-6 at intermission, only to see the Lobos score two TDs to cut the deficit to 31-18 midway through the third quarter. But Love hit Siaosi Mariner with a 10-yard scoring strike with 2:43 left in the third to put the icing on the cake. Love completed 18-of-35 throws for 172 yards and three TDs with one interception. Bright ran 19 times for 113 rushing yards and one TD.

-- Love has already declared for the NFL Draft, although there are conflicting reports that if he doesn’t like the feedback he gets from the league, leaving Logan via the grad-transfer route (possibly to reunite with Wells at Texas Tech) could be a possibility. Whatever the case, Love was unable to match his production from 2018 this year. He’s completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,085 yards with a 17/16 TD-INT ratio.

-- Bright has run for 827 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.1 YPC. He has 31 receptions for 207 yards and one TD. Juco transfer RB Jaylen Warren has run for 561 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. He has 14 catches for 156 yards. Mariner is Love’s favorite target, hauling in 56 receptions for 874 yards and eight TDs. He garnered second-team All-MWC honors. Jordan Nathan is another reliable target who has 47 catches for 510 yards and one TD.

-- Although he went down with a season-ending knee injury in late October and played in just seven games, junior LB David Woodward still recorded a team-best 93 tackles (53 solo), four forced fumbles, three TFL’s, two sacks, two PBU and one fumble recovery that he return eight yards for a scoop-and-score TD. Since Woodward’s injury, the Aggies have given up 35.8 PPG in their past five contests. He was a first-team All-MWC selection in 2018 when he had 134 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, five sacks, four QB hurries, three PBU, two forced fumbles and two interceptions. Like Love, Woodward has already declared early for the 2020 NFL Draft. He was the only Utah State defensive player chosen as a first-team All-MWC selection.

-- Two Utah State players earned first-team All-MWC honors for their work on special teams, including placekicker Dominik Eberle and kick returner Savon Scarver. Eberle made all 40 of his extra-point attempts and 19-of-22 field-goal attempts. Scarver returned 19 kicks for 557 yards, with a long of 100 yards and an average of 29.3 yards per return.

-- This is Utah State’s eighth trip to the postseason in the last nine seasons. The Aggies are 5-8 in 13 bowl games in program history, but they trounced North Texas 52-13 as 7.5-point favorites in last year’s New Mexico Bowl.

-- Kent State (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) brings a three-game winning streak to Texas, a surge that got the team into the postseason for the first time since 2012. Even better, Sean Lewis’s squad has covered the spread in four consecutive games and is 6-1 versus the number in its last seven contests. After going 2-10 in Lewis’s first campaign as HC in ’18, the Golden Flashes improved by four games.

-- Kent State has thrived in the underdog role, compiling a 6-2 spread record with three outright victories. In non-conference play, the Golden Flashes took the money in a 30-7 loss at Arizona State as 24.5-point underdogs in the season opener. However, they were on the wrong side both SU and ATS in losses at Auburn (55-16) and at Wisconsin (48-0).

-- Needing to win out to get bowl eligible, Lewis’s bunch started its run with a 30-27 win over Buffalo as a six-point home underdog. Next, Kent State won a 41-38 decision over Ball State as a three-point home hound. Then in the regular-season finale, the Golden Flashes darted out to a 24-14 halftime lead at Eastern Michigan. They extended the advantage to 31-14 when Jamal Parker returned the opening kick of the second half 96 yards to paydirt. The Eagles would rally, but Kent State hung on for a 34-26 triumph as a four-point road ‘dog. Junior QB Dustin Crum rushed 13 times for 51 yards and a pair of TDs at EMU. He also completed 17-of-23 throws for 197 yards. Junior free safety Keith Sherald had five solo tackles, six assists and two interceptions.

-- Crum enjoyed a breakout campaign. He leads the MAC and is 16th in the country in QB rating (156.07), placing him ahead of QBs like Jayden Daniels, Sam Ehlinger, Cole McDonald, Shea Patterson, Jake Fromm, Kelly Bryant, Jamie Newman, Jacob Eason, Sean Clifford, Shane Buechele, Ian Book and Jack Abraham (among many others!). Crum has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,333 yards with an 18/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s also the Golden Flashes’ leading rusher with 560 yards, five TDs and a 3.9 YPC average.

-- Crum’s favorite targets are WRs Isaiah McKoy and Mike Carrigan, who both earned third-team All-MAC honors. McKoy had 51 receptions for 767 yards and seven TDs, while Carrigan had 38 catches for 534 yards and five TDs. Senior WR Kavious Price had 47 grabs for 504 yards and three TDs.

-- Kent State’s special-teams units are a strength. Placekicker Matthew Trickett was a first-team All-MAC selection for the second straight season and was named the MAC’s Special Teams Player of the Year. Trickett buried 24-of-29 field-goal attempts and led the MAC with 107 total points. His 24 made FGAs were second-best in the country. Also, punter Derek Adams was a third-team All-MAC choice, averaging 43.3 yards per punt.

-- Kent State is 0-3 SU in the program’s only three postseason appearances. In the 2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl, The Golden Flashes lost a 17-13 decision to Arkansas State as 3.5-point underdogs.

-- ESPN2 will have Friday night’s broadcast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

-- According to weather.com, rain showers are in the forecast in Frisco for Friday night. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s at kickoff and move into the low 40s as the game progresses. Winds are predicted to be five miles per hour.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-- Boise State is a 3.5-point underdog in Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington at Sam Boyd Stadium. Since taking over at BSU for Chris Petersen, UW’s head coach who shockingly resigned earlier this month, Harsin has compiled a 7-0 spread record with five outright wins in seven games as an underdog (with the late line move on game day last year, the Broncos closed as short favorites in their blowout loss at Oklahoma State). Washington will be without OT Trey Adams, who was a first-team All-American selection in 2017, and star TE Hunter Bryant, who are both skipping the game to stay healthy for the 2020 NFL Draft. Bryant has 52 receptions for 828 yards and three TDs. With Adams ‘out,’ Boise State junior DE Curtis Weaver should be able to cause problems galore for Washington QB Jacob Eason. Weaver is fifth in the nation in sacks with 13.5.

-- Former South Carolina QB Jake Bentley has transferred to Utah, where he’s the likely starting QB in 2020 replacing Tyler Huntley. As for former Florida QB Feleipe Franks, he reportedly visited Kansas this past weekend. KU head coach Les Miles was still at LSU when Franks verbally committed to the Tigers early in the recruiting process. Former UF head coach Jim McElwain eventually was able to flip Franks to UF.

-- LSU star RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire sustained a hamstring injury at Tuesday’s practice. At a presser Wednesday night in Baton Rouge, Ed Orgeron said Edwards-Helaire will be evaluated further in the coming days. I would say he’s closer to ‘doubtful’ than ‘questionable’ for the Dec. 28 Peach Bowl showdown against Oklahoma. If LSU advances (it will with or without Edwards-Helaire), I’m guessing his availability vs. the Ohio State-Clemson winner in the College Playoff finals is also a question mark. Edwards-Helaire is the SEC’s leader in all-purpose yards with 1,903. He has 1,290 rushing yards, 16 TDs and a 6.6 YPC average.

-- The Athletic confirmed an initial report from SoonerScoop on Wednesday that three Oklahoma players are suspended for the CFP semifinals vs. LSU after testing positive for weed. The trio includes DE Ronnie Perkins, who has team-highs in TFL’s (13.5) and sacks (six), and backup RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who has 515 rushing yards and six TDs.

-- Here are some key players that are bucking the trend and playing in their team’s bowl games (how refreshing!) rather than skip out to stay healthy for the 2020 NFL Draft: Utah RB Zack Moss, Auburn DE Derrick Brown, Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard (the nation’s leading rusher) and Florida DE Jonathan Greenard.

-- On the flip side, players skipping their bowls to stay healthy include Florida CB and three-time All-SEC selection C.J. Henderson, Georgia OT Andrew Thomas, Minnesota LB Kamal Martin, FSU RB Cam Akers, Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk, Miami WR Jeff Thomas, Alabama LB Terrell Lewis and DB Trevon Diggs, Texas A&M DL Justin Madubuike, UCF QB Brandon Wimbush, Boston College RB A.J. Dillon, Washington TE Hunter Bryant and OT Trey Adams, Miami DE Trevon Hill and DL Jonathan Garvin and Mississippi State CB Cameron Dantzler. -- Here are some players that I anticipate skipping their bowl games but have yet to announce either way: Arizona State RB Eno Benjamin, Georgia RB De’Andre Swift and Alabama WRs Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs, in addition to ‘Bama RB Najee Harris. Swift is considered by many as the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he stated on social media earlier this week that he won’t announce a decision about possibly leaving school early until after the Sugar Bowl.

-- Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson has announced he’s turning pro early, but his social-media post declaring for the Draft didn’t specifically state whether he’d be in uniform against Baylor in New Orleans or not. Kirby Smart’s other OT Thomas, a fourth-team All-American in 2018 and a first-team All-SEC pick this year, won’t be playing in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs will be without WRs Lawrence Cager (ankle) and Dominick Blaylock (torn ACL) due to injuries.

-- SMU WR Reggie Roberson Jr. announced this week that he’s returning to the Mustangs for his senior campaign. However, the lower-body injury that kept him out of SMU’s last four regular-season games has him ‘questionable’ at FAU in Saturday’s Boca Raton Bowl. Roberson had 52 catches for 802 yards and six TDs in eight games this year. He also returned five kicks for 206 yards and one TD.

-- David Shaw had won at least eight games in each of the first eight year of his tenure, winning nine or more seven times. But the Cardinal limped to a 4-8 record this season and since the regular-season finale, THIRTEEN players have entered the transfer portal! QB K.J. Costello became the 13th on Wednesday. Costello had an injury-plagued 2019 campaign after earning second-team All-PAC-12 honors in ’18. The lone bright spot for Stanford is that OT Walker Little, who was a preseason first-team All-American and projected first-round pick, has decided to return to school. Little dislocated his knee in the season opener vs. Northwestern (remember that Bad Beat from Hell for Northwestern backers?!) and missed the rest of the year.

-- Florida is a 14-point favorite vs. Virginia in the Orange Bowl. The Gators are 5-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this year, 8-1 ATS as double-digit ‘chalk’ since Dan Mullen took over as HC. UF will be making its fourth appearance in the Orange Bowl. Steve Spurrier won the Heisman Trophy in 1966 and helped UF to a 27-12 win over Georgia Tech on Jan. 2 of 1967. On the same date (Jan. 2) exactly 35 years later, I had the absolute honor of slamming Budweisers galore (Hat Tip to Curtis Hazel for my ticket!) and watching in-person as the Gators destroyed Maryland 56-23 in the last game Spurrier coached for his alma mater. He resigned two days later to pursue an NFL head-coaching gig. In the 1999 Orange Bowl, UF took Syracuse and Donovan McNabb behind the woodshed in a 31-10 victory. Travis Taylor was named Orange Bowl MVP after making seven catches for 159 yards, including a pair of TD grabs from Doug Johnson in the first quarter. I was also in attendance at Dolphin Stadium (currently Hard Rock, formerly Joe Robbie, Pro Player, Sun Life and Land Shark Stadiums) on Jan. 8 of 2009 when Florida beat Oklahoma 24-14 to win the BCS Championship. The Gators have three national titles in the program’s football history, but none since that night in South Florida against the Sooners nearly 11 years ago.

[Udog]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, December 24

Matchup Skinny
Edge

BYU at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Sitake no covers last 3 or 7 of last 9 in 2019 and Cougs had covered 15 of previous 21. Rolovich 4-4 vs. spread at Aloha TY but was just 6-14-1 vs. line previous three years as host. Bows 1-4 SU and vs. line last five bowls dating to 2007 season.
BYU, based on team trends.



Thursday, December 26

MIAMI-FLA. vs. LA TECH (Independence Bowl)...Canes 2-6 as chalk TY, as dogs were 10-2 vs. line in Miami games. Miami has also failed to cover in 4 of last 6 bowls. Skip Holtz 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Holtz also 5-0 SU, 4-1 in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.


PITT vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN (Quick Lane Bowl)...Pitt 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls. Narduzzi 1-5-1 as DD chalk since 2016, but did cover 4 of 5 away TY. EMU 4-2-1 vs. line away from Ypsilanti this season, now 21-6-1 away from home since 2016, and 20-5-2 as dog since 2016. Note Panthers “under” 13-3 since late 2018.
EMU and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.



Friday, December 27

NORTH CAROLINA vs. TEMPLE (Military Bowl)... Mack Brown just 2-3-1 as chalk this year, 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Owls covered last 4 in 2019 in 8-4 spread season, 4-2 as dog, though Rod Carey was 0-6 SU and vs. spread in bowls with NIU.
UNC, based on Carey bowl marks.


MICHIGAN STATE vs. WAKE FOREST (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...MSU 3-9 vs. line TY, 8-17 vs. spread since 2018, 5-11 as chalk since 2018. Though Dantonio 6-1 vs. spread last seven bowls. Clawson 3-0 SU in bowls with Wake. Deacs 5-1 vs. line last 6 vs. non-ACC.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Texas Bowl)...Gundy on 12-4 spread uptick since late 2018, has also won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 bowls. OSU also 14-4 as dog since 2015.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL vs. IOWA (Holiday Bowl)...SC no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 bowls. Helton 1-8 vs. spread last 9 vs. non-Pac 12 foes. Ferentz has won and covered last 2 owls and is 7-4 last 11 in bowl games vs. line, and 9-3-1 vs. spread last 13 away from Iowa City.
Iowa, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE vs. AIR FORCE (Cheez-it Bowl)...Leach no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 bowl with Cougs. WSU also 4-8 vs. line last 12 vs. non-Pac 12, and just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 away from Pullman. Calhoun 13-3 vs. spread last 16 vs. non-MW foes.
Air Force, based on team trends.



Saturday, December 28

IOWA STATE vs. NOTRE DAME (Camping World Bowl)...ISU dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line TY but was 2-0 as dog, and Matt Campbell now 18-8-1 getting points since taking over Cyclones in 2016. Irish 2-5 vs. spread last 7 bowls.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS vs. PENN STATE (Cotton Bowl)...Tigers weren’t a dog TY, and 3-3-1 in role since 2017. Memphis 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. James Franklin just 2-4 vs. spread last six this season and 2-2 SU and vs. line last four bowls.
Penn State, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA vs. LSU (CFP Peach Bowl)...OU 4-4 vs. line in last eight bowls, 2-1 last 3 as bowl dog. In rare dog role, OU is 3-1 for Lincoln Riley. LSU 9-4 vs. line TY, 11-4 last 15 on board. Tigers 10-5 “over” since late 2018.
Slight to LSU, based on team trends.


CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE (CFP Fiesta Bowl)...Dabo 9-1 vs. spread last ten bowl/playoff games since 2012, including pair of wins and covers vs. OSU. Clemson on 13-3 spread run since late 2018. Buckeyes 9-4 vs. line TY, 1-2 vs. spread last three bowls.
Clemson, based on team trends.



Monday, December 30

WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (First Reponder Dallas Bowl)...WKU 7-2 vs. spread last nine TY for Tyson Helton, and Tops 10-4 vs. spread since late 2018. WMU only 7-14 last 21 vs. spread since early 2018 (5-7 TY), and 1-5 last six as dog. Broncos 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls since 2008.
Western Kentucky, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS vs. CAL (Redbox Bowl)...Cal 1-4 as chalk TY, 2-9-1 in role since LY for Wilcox. Dog team is 13-4-1 last 18 vs. spread in Golden Bears games. Lovie covered 6 of last 7 this season, and Illini is 7-1 last 8 as dog since late 2018.
Illinois, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA vs. FLORIDA (Orange Bowl)...Gators covered last 3 and 7 of last 9 this season, Dan Mullen now on 16-7 spread run since early 2018. Bronco Mendenhall 7-3 as dog since LY, though his BYU & UVa teams just 1-4 vs. spread last five bowls.
Slight to Florida, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. LOUISVILLE (Music City Bowl)...Joe Moorhead just 4-9 vs. spread last 13 on board, 2-6 last 8 TY. Satterfield now 20-8-1 vs. line since late 2017 at App and ‘Ville. Satterfield teams have covered their last nine non-conference games.
Louisville, based on team trends.

[Udog]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, December 31

Matchup Skinny
Edge

FLORIDA STATE vs. ARIZONA STATE (Sun Bowl)...Noles on 6-11 spread skid since mid 2018, also just 2-7 last nine as dog. Herm however only 1-5 last six vs. line TY and 4-10 last 14 on board since late LY. Sun Devils 1-4 vs. spread last five bowls.
Slight to Florida State, based on team trends.


KANSAS STATE vs. NAVY (Liberty Bowl)...Cats 9-3 vs. line TY, 6-1 as dog for Klieman. KSU on 15-5 spread run since mid 2018. Mids however on 13-3 spread run, and Niumatalolo has covered last five bowls.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE vs. WYOMING (Arizona Bowl)...Bohl on 12-5 run since late 2018, and 2-0 vs. line in bowls with Wyo. Cowboys 6-2 last 8 as chalk, and “under” 10-3 last 13 since late 2018.
Wyoming, based on team trends.


TEXAS vs. UTAH (Alamo Bowl)...Tom Herman only 2-3 as dog TY but still 15-5 in role since 2015 with Houston and UT. Herman also 3-0 SU and vs. line in bowls, and 4-1 vs. spread last five outside of Big 12. Whittingham 8-4 vs. spread in bowls but only 1-2 last three.
Texas, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Belk Bowl)...UK covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 TY, Marc Stoops on 10-4 spread run since late 2018, also now 8-4 last 12 as dog. Cats have covered last two bowl trips and have covered last four vs. non-SEC foes. Hokies covered 5 of last 6 TY but just 1-4 as chalk away from Blacksburg since LY. VPI 1-3 vs. line last four bowls.
Kentucky, based on recent trends.



Wednesday, January 1

MICHIGAN vs. ALABAMA (Citrus Bowl)...Harbaugh covered 5 of last 6 TY but Wolverines 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls and Harbaugh just 3-4 in rare dog role since 2015. Michigan also “over” 10-4 since late 2018. Saban 3-7 vs. spread last ten bowls, Tide 7-4 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-SEC, 11-6 “over” since late 2018.
“Over” and slight to Alabama, based on “totals” and team trends.


MINNESOTA vs. AUBURN (Outback Bowl)...Gophers cooled a bit at end of season (0-2-1 vs. line L3) after 9-0 SU break from gate. Fleck however 0-2-1 vs. spread non-league TY. Gophers 3-0 SU and vs. line last three bowls (two of those with Claeys). Gus on 10-3 spread uptick since late 2018, and has covered last six vs. non-SEC.
Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN vs. OREGON (Rose Bowl)...Ducks covered 4 of last 5 away from Eugene TY, though hasn’t covered in its last four bowl trips. Badgers 9-5 vs. line since late 2018 and have won and covered in their last five bowls. and 6-1 vs. spread last seven away from Madison.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.


BAYLOR vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Matt Rhule on 13-5 spread run since late 2018, also 8-0 last eight as dog. Dawgs had covered 5 straight bowls/playoffs before loss to Texas In Sugar LY. Kirby Smart also on 12-3 “under” run.
Baylor and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.



Thursday, January 2

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. CINCINNATI (Birmingham Bowl)...Eagles 5-2 as dog in 2019, 13-4-1 getting points since 2017. Also 6-3 last nine vs. spread away from Chestnut Hill. Cincy no covers in last four bowls. Bearcats “under” 10-3 in 2019.
Boston College and slight to “under” based on team and “totals” trends.


TENNESSEE vs. INDIANA (Gator Bowl)...Vols won last 5 SU and were 6-1 vs. spread last 7 in 2019. UT also “under” 12-5 since late 2018. IU 9-6 last 15 on board since late 2018.
Tennessee, based on recent trends.



Friday, January 3

OHIO vs. NEVADA (Potato Bowl)...Solich only 4-8 vs. line TY, but did win and cover big his last two in 2019, and has won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 bowls. MAC bowl malaise has not included Ohio (Bobcats 5-2 vs. spread last seven bowls).
Slight to Ohio, based on bowl trends.



Saturday, January 4

TULANE vs. SOUTHERN MISS (Armed Forces Bowl)...USM just 1-3 as dog TY after 7-3 mark past two years in role for Jay Hopson. Golden Eagles 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls. Wave on 9-4 spread uptick since late 2018.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.



Monday, January 6

MIAMI-OHIO vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (Alabama Bowl)...RedHawks were 6-3 vs. line last nine TY, but only 4-4 as dog TY after 5-2 mark in role for Chuck Martin LY. Ragin’ Cajuns failed to cover last two TY but were still 9-4 vs. spread TY, and 16-6-2 vs. spread since early 2018.
Slight to ULL, based on team trends.

[Udog]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

New Mexico Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State

-- The Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5 straight up, 9-3-1 against the spread) of the Mid-American Conference will face off against the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, N.M.

-- The Chippewas will be making their 12th bowl appearance in school history, and first since falling in the Idaho Potato Bowl against Wyoming on Dec. 22, 2017 by a 37-14 score. CMU has dropped four consecutive bowl appearances since topping Kentucky in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl back on Dec. 26, 2012. They're 3-8 SU all-time in bowl games in school history.

-- The Aztecs have posted 17 bowl appearances, going 8-9 in their previous appearances. Like Central Michigan, this will be their first-ever appearance in the New Mexico Bowl. The Aztecs enter on a two-game bowl losing streak, falling in last season's Frisco Bowl against Ohio by a 27-0 score. They topped Houston by a 34-10 score in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 17, 2016 for their most recent bowl success.

-- CMU is coming off a disappointing 26-21 loss against Miami-Ohio in the MAC Championship Game at Ford Field on Dec. 7. That loss snapped a three-game win and cover streak to close out the regular season, and the Chips are still 6-2 ATS across the past eight games despite the non-cover vs. Miami. The Chippewas were 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in four non-conference tilts, including a 42-28 win over New Mexico State in their final non-conference tilts on Oct. 12.

-- San Diego State blew their chance at a conference championship, falling 17-13 against Nevada at home on Nov. 9, and 14-11 at Hawaii on Nov. 23. They scored 20 or fewer points in each of their final five games, while allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their final six. As such, the 'under' connected in each of their final six contests of the regular season. They are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in three non-conference tilts, and these two teams have a common opponent - New Mexico State. The Aztecs spanked the Aggies 31-10 back on Sept. 14 to cover a 16.5-point spread, recording their largest margin of victory of the season.

-- Central Michigan ranks 27th in total yards per game (447.4), 40th in passing yards per game (258.9), 40th in rushing yards per game (188.5) and 44th in points scored (31.9). Defensively the Chips ranked 38th in total yards allowed (351.8), 84th in passing yards allowed (235.2) and 21st in rushing yards allowed (116.7), while checking in 62nd in the country with 26.8 points per game allowed.

-- San Diego State ended up ranked 115th in the nation with 330.1 total yards per game offensively, while finishing 99th in passing yards (194.8) and 99th in rushing yards (135.3). They also posted just 19.0 points per game to finish 119th in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, the Aztecs were dominant, allowing just 288.7 total yards per game to rank fifth, while checking in 53rd with 216.3 passing yards allowed and second with only 72.4 rushing yards per contest. They also yielded only 12.8 PPG to finish fourth in the nation.

-- Aztecs DB Luq Barcoo was tied for second in the country with eight interceptions, while ranking first with 24 passes defensed and he was tied for No. 1 with 16 pass breakups.

-- San Diego State QB Ryan Agnew (calf) is expected to be ready after leaving the regular-season finale due to injury. However, leading RB Juwan Washington (lower body) is a question mark, so RB Chase Jasmin might have to do more of the heavy lifting.

-- Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall. However, they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning sides and 0-4 ATS in the past four neutal-site games.

-- San Diego State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games as a favorite, but they're just 5-13 ATS in the past 18 games on a grass surface and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 appearances in the month of December.

-- The Chippewas have hit the over in six of the past eight games overall, and the over is 4-0 in their past four as an underdog. The over is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts.

-- The under has connected in four in a row for the Aztecs as a favorite, and 4-1 in their past five neutral-site battles while going 20-8-1 in the previous 29 non-conference tilts.

-- The under is 4-1 in San Diego State's past five bowl games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


Cure Bowl (ABC, 2:30 p.m.)
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

-- The FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl will feature a battle between the independent Liberty Flames (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.

-- Liberty will be appearing in its first-ever bowl game in just their second-ever season at the FBS level. Head coach Hugh Freeze earned a contract extension on Dec. 10 after securing the historic bowl berth for the Flames.

-- The Eagles are the bowl veterans, although this is just their third-ever postseason appearance. They picked up an exciting 23-21 win over Eastern Michigan in last season's Camellia Bowl. They also blasted Bowling Green by a 58-27 count in the 2005 GoDaddy Bowl, so they've never lost a bowl game in their brief history.

-- Liberty started off the season 0-2 SU/ATS, but rattled off five straight wins to get to the precipice of bowl eligibility in late October. A disappointing loss at Rutgers on Oct. 26 spoiled their momentum, but they routed Massachusetts (who didn't?) by a 63-21 score to gain eligibility in style. They fell at BYU and at Virginia on Nov. 9 and Nov. 23, but crushed New Mexico State by a 49-28 count to end the season on a high note, covering a 14.5-point spread.

-- Georgia Southern opened 1-3 SU in their first four outings of the regular season, and they covered just once in the first six games to open the year. The Eagles recorded their most impressive victory of the season with a 24-21 win at Appalachian State on Halloween night, a treat for Eagles fans everywhere. That also likely spoiled any chance App State had of appearing in the Cotton Bowl, although they were still in the running late.

-- Like CMU and San Diego State above, Liberty and Georgia Southern also had a common opponent in New Mexico State. The Eagles routed NMSU 41-7 to cover a 13.5-point spread on Oct. 26, and Liberty pounded them in the finale as mentioned above.

-- Liberty ranked 34th in the country with 443.3 total yards per game, while also posting 290.5 passing yards per game to end up 21st in the land. They're 32nd in points scored with 33.7, while they struggled with 152.8 rushing yards per game to finish 72nd in the nation. Defensively the Flames were very average, ranking 88th with 422.4 total yards per game allowed, 74th against the pass (229.8), 100th against the run (192.9) and 77th in points allowed (29.1).

-- Georgia Southern was a dismal 112th in total yards per game (333.6), 130th in passing yards per contest (72.8) and 63rd in points scored (29.2). However, the triple-option Eagles rank eighth in the nation with 260.8 rushing yards per contest. The Eagles ranked 53rd in total yards per game allowed 377.3, they were 91st against the pass (240.2) and 38th against the rush (137.1) while yielding 28.6 PPG to check in 72nd in the land.

-- Liberty is 17-7 ATS in the past 24 as an underdog, while going 0-4 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts.

-- Georgia Southern is 1-4 ATS in the past five games following a cover in their most recent appearance.

-- The Flames hit the over in four of the past five games overall, but the under is 5-1 in Liberty's past six games as an underdog.

-- The Eagles hit the over in four of their final five games in the regular season, while the over is 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. The over is also 9-3 in Georgia Southern's past 12 games on a grass surface, while going 5-1 in the past six after a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a cover.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on CBSSN.


Boca Raton Bowl (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Southern Methodist vs. Florida Atlantic

-- The Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl features a battle between the Southern Methodist Mustangs (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the American Athletic Conference and the Florida Atlantic Owls (10-3 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) of Conference USA at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla.

-- SMU has a rich bowl history, and they'll make their first appearance in the Boca Raton Bowl. After going 1-4-1 SU in their first six bowl appearances the Mustangs are 6-4 SU across the past 10 appearances, including 4-2 in the past six. They're 0-1 in their only bowl appearance against a Conference USA foe, falling 51-10 to Louisiana Tech in their most recent bowl showing in the 2017 Frisco Bowl.

-- FAU doesn't have a lengthy bowl history, but it has been successful. They debuted Dec. 21, 2007 with a 44-27 win over Memphis, an AAC opponent, before posting a 24-21 win over Central Michigan in the 2008 Motor City Bowl. In their only previous Boca Raton Bowl showing they routed Akron by a 50-3 score on Dec. 19, 2017.

-- SMU fired out of the box with eight straight victories to open the season, while going 5-0 ATS in the first five contests. The 'over' also went 7-0 in the first seven battles, and 9-0-1 in their first 10 contests. Their only losses came in a 54-48 slugfest at Memphis on Nov. 2, and a 35-28 showdown at Navy on Nov. 23. The Mustangs did limp home with a 1-4 ATS mark in the final five games.

-- The Mustangs ranked ninth in the country with 495.3 total yards per game on offense, while ranking 12th in passing yards (309.3) per contest. They're also 41st in the land with 185.9 rushing yards per game and 43.0 points per game to end up seventh in the nation. Defensively the Mustangs allowed 438.6 total yards per game to rank 102nd, while ranking 121st in passing yards allowed (284.9) and 100th in points allowed (31.8 PPG).

-- SMU QB Shane Buechele threw for 3,626 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 63.2 percent of his passes. RB Xavier Jones ran for 1,249 yards and 21 touchdowns while WR James Proche ended up with 102 receptions, 1,139 yards and 14 combined touchdowns.

-- The Owls will be playing their first game with interim head coach Glenn Spencer at the helm after Lane Kiffin bolted for the vacant Ole Miss head coaching position.

-- FAU ranked 32nd with 443.5 total yards per game on offense while ranking 30th in passing yards (278.4). They were also 16th in the country with 35.2 PPG. Defensively the Owls were 48th with 371.3 total yards per game allowed, 81st against the pass (233.6) and 41st against the run (137.7). They also ranked 33rd while allowing 22.3 PPG.

-- Owls TE Harrison Bryant posted 1,002 yards while capturing the Mackey Award, recognized as college football's best tight end.

-- SMU posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four non-conference games, but they're 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.

-- FAU is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall mark. They're also 5-0 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The over is 9-3 in SMU's past 12 games overall, and 6-2 in the past eight as a favorite. The over is also 6-0 in the past six non-conference games, but the under is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site battles and 5-0 in SMU's past five bowl games.

-- The over is 5-1-1 in FAU's past seven as an underdog, while the under is 7-1 in their past eight appearances in the month of December and 8-3 in the past 11 games on a grass surface.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between SMU and FAU on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

[Udog]

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Camellia Bowl (ESPN, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Florida International vs. Arkansas State

-- The Florida International Golden Panthers (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of Conference USA will take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the Sun Belt Conference in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. in the Cramton Bowl.

-- The Golden Panthers are bowling for a school-record third straight season under the leadership of head coach Butch Davis. They are 2-2 overall in their four previous bowl games, having won the 2010 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl over Toledo in 2010, while losing the Beef O' Brady's Bowl to Marshall in 2011, both under Mario Cristobal, now at Oregon. They lost the Gasparilla Bowl to Temple in 2017 under Davis, before rebounding with a 35-32 last season in the Bahamas Bowl, again over Toledo.

-- FIU barely qualified for the postseason, but a big late victory turned their season. They started out 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS, with only a win over FCS New Hampshire in the first four games. They throttled Massachusetts 44-0 on Oct. 5, a common theme for most teams this season, to get their first win against an FBS team. They followed that up with their first conference win of the season Oct. 12 against Charlotte, a bowl team, while running their record to 4-3 SU on Oct. 19 with another C-USA win over Texas-El Paso. However, a 50-17 humbling at Middle Tennessee, and a 37-7 whitewashing on the road against rival Florida Atlantic had them in another 0-4 ATS tailspin, and a 5-5 SU hole heading into Nov. 23 against Miami-Florida. However, they stunned the Hurricanes 30-24 at Marlins Park for one of the biggest, if not the biggest, wins in school history to attain bowl eligibility before a 30-27 overtime loss at Marshall in the season finale. FIU ended the season 6-1 SU at home, but 0-5 SU on the road, something to remember here.

-- The Red Wolves wer beaten by SMU in their opener, 37-30, and they lost to another bowl team Georgia, 55-0, on Sept. 14 at Sanford Stadium in Athens. They rattled off two wins in a row against FCS Southern Illinois and at Troy, but fell to a pair of bowl teams, Georgia State and Louisiana, to go back under .500. However, a four-game win streak against Texas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern meant they were bowl again, although they enter this game on a losing streak after a 34-30 failure in Mobile against a bad South Alabama side.

-- Ark State has posted a 3-6 SU record in FBS bowl games, falling in the past two appearances. They lost to Nevada in the Arizona Bowl last season by a 16-13 score in overtime, and against Middle Tennessee by a 35-30 count in their only previous appearance in the Camellia Bowl. They're also 0-2 SU in two previous showings in a bowl game against C-USA teams, falling 31-19 to Southern Miss in the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, too.

-- Offensively, the Red Wolves were strong, especially in the pass game. They ranked 44th in the nation with 432.2 total yards per game, and 14th with 305.3 passing yards per contest. Rushing, they're a dismal 110th with 126.8 yards per contest, but it all equated to 33.7 points per game to rank 31st. Defensively, ugh, the Red Wolves were 127th in the country with 481.9 total yards per game, and 104th against the pass (257.3), 123rd against the run (224.6) and they allowed 34.8 points per game to rank 117th.

-- FIU's strength is against the pass, ranking sixth in the country with just 178.5 pass yards allowed per game. That's because their rush defense was atrocious, allowing 205.1 yards per game on the ground to rank 111th. Overall they allowed 26.7 points per game to check in 61st. Offensively, FIU was balanced, although not in a good way. They ranked 97th with 371.3 total yards per game, 91st in pass yards (203.5), 61st in rushing (167.8) and 84th in points score (26.5).

-- The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in the past nine against winning teams, but they're just 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games. They're 11-5 ATS in the past 16 as an underdog, too.

-- The Red Wolves are 1-5 ATS in the past six non-conference games, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games, while also going 1-5 ATS in the past six vs. C-USA teams.

-- FIU has hit the over in five of the past six against winning teams, while going 5-2 in their past seven as an underdog.

-- For Ark State, the over is 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite, but the under is 4-1 in the past five games in December, and 36-17-1 in the previous 54 non-conference tilts.

-- These teams have a history, as they were each previously SBC members together. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, with the under cashing in five in a row.


Las Vegas Bowl (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Boise State vs. Washington

-- The Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl will pits the Boise State Broncos (12-1 straight up, 7-5-1 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference and the Washington Huskies (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Pac-12 Conference at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas (technically Whitney, Nev.).

-- The game marks the final one for head coach Chris Petersen at Washington, and it comes against the program where he made a name for himself in Boise. He went 92-12 across eight seasons with the Broncos from 2006-13 before taking the gig with the Huskies in 2014.

-- Boise State has an interesting bowl history, and they'll likely be glad to be back in the fair weather of Las Vegas. They were trailing 7-0 with 5:08 to go in the first quarter last season in the First Responder Bowl before the remainder of the game was cancelled due to inclement/severe weather, with the bowl designated a no contest.

-- The Broncos will be making their fifth appearance in the Las Vegas bowl, previously named the Maaco Bowl. These teams met in bowl game on Dec. 22, 2012, with the Broncos coming away with a 28-26 win under Petersen. In their four previous appearances the Broncos are 4-0 with wins over Utah (2010), Arizona State (2011), Washington (2012) and Oregon (2017). Overall they're 12-6 SU in their previous 18 FBS bowl appearances dating back to Dec. 30, 1999.

-- The Huskies have dropped three bowl games in a row under Petersen, and they're 1-4 SU across their five appearances under his leadership. They're also just 5-13 SU in their past 18 bowl games after a 10-3 SU run from 1978-92 under Don James.

-- Boise State ranks 38th with 441.5 total yards per game, and they're 35th in passing yards (267.4) while ranking 52nd in rushing yards (174.2). The Broncos are also 14th in the nation with 36.8 points per game. Defensively they rank 35th with 347.5 total yards per game allowed, while clamping down against the rush with 113.1 yards per contest allowed. They also gave up just 20.6 PPG to check in 24th.

-- Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier (shoulder) is a question mark due to a shoulder injury, but QB Chase Cord and QB Jaylon Henderson have proven to be more than capable, if/when needed. Henderson started four games, passing for 1,032 yards and 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions, while Cord cut the mustard, too. He appearance in eight games, throwing for 670 yards, nine touchdowns and just three intereceptions while also running for 100 yards and two scores. RB George Holani, also a freshman, rolled up a team-best 979 rushing yards with seven touchdowns

-- Washington was a mediocre 73rd in total yards per game (397.3), while ranking 55th in passing yards (245.1), 76th in rushing yards (152.2) and 47th in points scored (31.5) per game Defensively they allowed 358.3 total yards per outing to rank 39th, while checking in 64th against the pass (225.1) and 33rd against the run (133.3). They also allowed 20.4 points per game to finish 23rd in the land.

-- Boise State is 7-0 ATS in their past seven games as an underdog, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six as a bowl underdog. They're also 7-3 ATS in the past 10 bowl games overall, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 neutral-site battles.

-- Washington is 6-2 ATS in the past eight as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games and 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs.


New Orleans Bowl (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
Appalachian State vs. Alabama-Birmingham

-- The R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl features the Sun Bowl champion Appalachian State Mountaineers (12-1 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) against the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (9-4 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, La.

-- The Mountaineers had a tremendous season, including wins on the road against Power 5 teams North Carolina and South Carolina. They head to New Orleans looking for a 13-win season, and they'll also be looking to stay unbeaten in bowl games. They are 4-0 SU in two Camellia Bowl appearances, a Dollar General Bowl appearance and a 45-13 dismantling of Middle Tennessee in last season's New Orleans Bowl.

-- The only blemish on App State's record was a 24-21 loss on Halloween night agaisnt Georgia Southern. Since then they won five in a row, covering four of those outings. That run includes the win over South Carolina, as well as a 56-27 at Georgia State (a bowl team), and a 45-38 win over Louisiana (also a bowl team) in the Sun Belt title game. Overall the Mountaineers beat bowl teams Charlotte, North Carolina, Louisiana (twice) and Georgia State.

-- For the Blazers, they're a heavy underdog after getting demolished by Florida Atlantic (a bowl team) in the Conference USA title game in Boca Raton, Fla., essentially a road game. They have QB Tyler Johnston III (knee) on the injury report due to a knee injury. He led the team with 1,949 passing yards in 2019.

-- UAB fell 49-6 to FAU in the title game, splashing cold water on a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS run to close out the regular season, including a 20-14 win over bowl team Lousiana Tech. They had a rare over in the C-USA title game, too, as they closed out the regular season on a 4-1 'under' run.

-- The Blazers struggled offensively, ranking 105th in total yards per game (352.9), 101st in passing yards (193.4) and 68th in rushing yards (159.5) while posting 23.6 PPG to rank 100th in the country. Defensively the Blazers had it on lockdown most of the season, allowing just 295.2 yards per game to rank eighth, while checking in 14th against the pass (186.8) and 13th against the rush (108.3). They also allowed just 20.8 points per game to rank 26th in the nation.

-- For App State, they ranked 42nd in total yards (435.5) while ranking 87th in passing yards (206.3) and 17th in rushing yards (229.2). Overall, they scored 39.4 points per game to finish ninth in the nation. Defensively, the Mountaineers were solid across the board, ranking 26th in total yards (335.9), 30th in passing yards (199.7), 37th in rushing yards (136.2) and 22nd in points (20.2) allowed per game.

-- The Mountaineers are led by SBC offensive player of the year RB Darrytnon Evans, who posted 1,323 yards on the ground while posting a total of 17 touchdowns.

-- App State is 8-1 ATS in the past nine non-conference battles, 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record and 22-8 ATS in the past 30 overall. They're also 17-8 ATS in the past 25 as a favorite.

-- UAB is 2-5 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning record while going 1-4 ATS in the past five as an underdog.

-- App State has hit the over in seven of the past eight against winning teams while going 6-2 in the past eight non-conference battles.

-- The under is 9-4 in UAB's past 13 against winning teams, and 10-3 in their past 13 as an underdog. The over is 4-1 in the past five appearances in December, while the over is 8-3 in their past 11 against SBC foes.

[Udog]

Random bowl facts; Merry Christmas……

— Over the last three years, Pac-12 teams are 7-15 SU in bowl games, 3-18-1 ATS, which is hard to believe, so I checked it twice. 3-18-1 it is.

— Last five tears, Pac-12 teams are 12-27-1 ATS in bowls, 9-20-1 when favored.

— Friday was a huge day for the MAC; they won two bowl games. Over the previous three years, MAC squads were 2-15 SU in bowls, 5-12 ATS.

— Over last three years, SEC teams are 17-19 SU in bowls, 9-12 ATS when favored.

— Underdogs won four of last five Pinstripe Bowls SU.

— Three years ago, big 14 teams were 3-7 SU in bowls; the last two years, they went 12-5 SU/ATS.

— In last five Cheez-It Bowls, Big X teams are 5-0 SU, beating four Pac-12 teams and Boise State.

— Over last five years, Big X teams 5-7 ATS when favored in bowls, 13-8 when the underdog; they’re 13-6 SU in bowls the last three years.

— Over last three years, Sun Belt teams are 9-5 SU in bowls. Go figure.

— Last four years, AAC teams are 10-20 SU in bowls; 6-11 ATS when favored, 4-9 when an underdog.

— Last three years, ACC teams are 20-12-1 ATS in bowls, 9-4 when favored, 11-8-1 when they’re getting points.

— Last five years, Conference USA teams are 11-5 ATS when favored, 7-11 when an underdog.

— Pac-12 teams beat an ACC team in four of last five Sun Bowls; four of the five games were decided by 6 or fewer points.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii Bowl Preview
December 20, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Former conference rivals BYU and Hawaii will face off in Honolulu for the Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl. These teams played a year ago at BYU and the Cougars have had a clear edge in the recent history of this series.

Hawaii is coming off a division championship season however and a closely-lined contest could prove to be one of the more competitive early bowl games.

Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview

BYU Cougars at Hawaii Warriors
Venue: At Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii
Time/TV: Tuesday, December 24, 8:00 p.m. ESPN
Line: BYU -2, Over/Under 64
Last Meeting: 2018 at BYU (-10½) 49, Hawaii 23

Since 1980 these teams have met 24 times with 20 wins for BYU including five straight going back to 2002. BYU won 30-20 in 2017 in the last trip to Honolulu as a slight 3.5-point favorite. The Cougars have scored at least 30 points in seven straight meetings in this series and Kalani Sitake is 2-0 in bowl games including delivering a 49-18 bowl win over Western Michigan last season.

The Independent schedule for BYU was very uneven with power five tests early and a much lighter path late in the year. BYU turned in notable wins over Tennessee, USC, and Boise State, but also took losses to Toledo and South Florida as well. BYU lost its season finale at San Diego State, while also beating Utah State on the road as they played three Mountain West foes.

Known for an offense that scored 470 points this season the Hawaii defense turned in improved results down the stretch, allowing an average of just 20 points per game in the final four contests including the Mountain West Championship loss to Boise State. That game in Boise featured a 31-10 final score but the statistics were pretty even and it was a 3-3 game before things turned sharply on a few big plays in the final two minutes before halftime.

Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro combined for 37 touchdown passes but with 17 interceptions as well as Hawaii will wind up with more than 600 pass attempts by season’s end. Hawaii actually eclipsed 2,000 yards rushing this season on 5.1 yards per carry for a massive leap to provide much better balance compared with last season.

McDonald played the entire MWC Championship game despite ceding significant time to Cordeiro late in the season. McDonald is much bigger in stature and has been the more prolific passer but Cordeiro, the Honolulu-native, had some big moments notably in the win over San Jose State.

Given the heavy-hitters on the early season schedule one would assume that the Cougars played a much tougher schedule but the slates rated similarly as Hawaii went 2-1 vs. Pac-12 teams early in the season beating Arizona and Oregon State and also had to play Boise State twice.

Hawaii has played in this bowl game four times since 2008 going 1-3 S/U and ATS, actually getting the win in the instance where they played as the biggest underdog. Last season Hawaii lost 31-14 to Louisiana Tech at home as a slight home underdog in what was a sloppy Hawaii Bowl with six turnovers. A 7-3 halftime lead turned sharply in the third quarter for the Warriors, who were held to only 226 net yards.

BYU was a road favorite four times this season and lost S/U three times while going 0-4 ATS. Under Sitake BYU is just 4-6 ATS as a road favorite as well. Sitake is 10-12 S/U in road games at BYU while under Nick Rolovich, Hawaii is 6-8 S/U and ATS as a home underdog, though 2-1 S/U and ATS this season with wins over Arizona and San Diego State.

Sophomore Zach Wilson missed several games in the middle of the season but wound up with decent numbers after emerging as the starting quarterback as a freshman last season. One of his worst games came in the season finale at San Diego State with two interceptions and he has only played in two FBS games since his injury in late September. Six different players threw passes for BYU this season and while the numbers might look slightly better for backups Baylor Romney and Jaren Hall, they didn’t face some of the power five teams Wilson faced in September.

BYU doesn’t have a rusher with more than 400 yards as while the rushing attack proved adequate it was a clear committee approach with top rusher Sione Finau lost to a knee injury in November. Hawaii had a stronger per carry rushing average this season and playing two more games than BYU has, the Warriors with a stronger rushing production count for the season but trailed the Cougars on a per-game average.

The victor in the Hawaii Bowl has scored at least 30 points in seven straight seasons and only one of the past seven meetings has been a single-score result. The Mountain West had won three in a row against AAC teams before last season’s win for Louisiana Tech and this game should have a chance to top 30,000 in attendance for a second straight season with some positive enthusiasm for a solid season for the home team.

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Bowls
Matt Blunt

Last week's piece on NFL trends heading into Week 16 didn't bring the best results, and with Week 17 being one that generally resembles a crap shoot for the bulk of the card with motivation and who's suiting up being big question marks throughout the week, it's back to the collegiate game this week.

NFL angles will be back in time for the playoffs early next week, but with a plethora of Bowl games in the more immediate future, here are a couple of 'lighter' angles to keep on your holiday plate for the next 10 days or so.

Who's Hot

ACC teams in Boxing Day Bowls: 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in CFB Playoff era (2014-15)

Historical information like this isn't always the most in-depth approach or even the most relevant knowledge in some cases, but considering Boxing Day (Dec. 26) this year has just two Bowl games on the card and there is an ACC team involved in each, it was worth pointing out. Miami and Pittsburgh are chalk in their respective games this year, and while ACC chalk is just 3-2 ATS in the span outlined in the header, if you do believe they will win the game, laying the points doesn't hurt.

That 7-3 SU and ATS run by ACC teams on Boxing Day is perfectly correlated (ie there were no ATS covers coming in SU defeats), with one exception, so keep that in mind. It does work the other way too in that if you are looking at taking the points with Louisiana Tech or Eastern Michigan later this week, dousing the ML with a partial unit should be considered as well. The University of Miami did account for one of those past SU and ATS losses on Boxing Day – their only appearance in this data – as a 20-14 loss to Washington State (-1.5) back in 2015 is one of the three ACC blemishes on this day in recent years.

That one exception – Virginia Tech winning 55-52 back in 2015 as double-digit (-14) chalk.

But what may be even more interesting for this data set is the fact that not only are the SU wins correlated with ATS wins perfectly, but the same goes for the totals in these games as well.

In the seven SU/ATS wins by ACC programs in Boxing Day Bowls the past few years, the 'over' has gone 6-0-1 O/U, while the three SU/ATS losses by ACC schools has gone a perfect 0-3 O/U to the 'under'. That is quite the history when you think about it, and how you chose to use that information (if at all) for this year's games is up to you. But it does suggest that with Pittsburgh (-11.5) and Miami (-6) both being expected to win their respective games, the 'over' may end up being the place to look that does give you more margin for error.

Yes, the SU and ATS results have nearly always been perfectly correlated in the sense that the point spread hasn't mattered, but the one time it did – Virginia Tech in 2015 – was the only other time prior to this year that an ACC school was laying double-digit chalk. That puts Pittsburgh in the trickier spot this week, at least in terms of the side, which is why I do say that the 'over' (at least in that game) does potentially give you more of a margin for error. Pitt wasn't an 'over' team at all this season (3-9 O/U), but Eastern Michigan was (7-3-2 O/U), and if the Eagles do find a way to make a game of it, chances are it will be a game that should surpass their current total of 49.

Who's Not

Backing Favorites in non-CFB Playoff New Year's Day Bowl games – 1-7 ATS and 2-6 SU the last two seasons

If you are someone who tends to wake up groggy and hungover on New Year's Day, when you take your dog out for a walk to get some fresh air and shake loose some of the cobwebs, make sure you put some underdog betting tickets in your pocket at the same time. That's because underdogs playing on this day have been money the past two years, going 7-1 ATS and 6-2 outright in that span.

When you really step back and think about it, the general theory does make a lot of sense too. All year you hear announcers talk about how important it is for many programs to be playing in a New Year's Day Bowl game, but that's not the reality for all of them. A lot of the time it's this day that houses those teams that finished ranked #5 through #10 in the CFB Playoff rankings, meaning they just missed out on their ultimate goal and there is simply no desire to go out and be at their best in a Bowl game on New Year's Day that's only lost more and more prestige as the years have gone on. That's not even mentioning that the lone ATS loss for underdogs in this spot came by a half-point last year in UCF's 40-32 loss to LSU when the Knights closed at +7.5.

But when the past two seasons has had brand name programs like LSU, Auburn and Michigan all lose outright as chalk in 2017 – Auburn and Michigan laying -9 or more – and the likes of Georgia (-13.5) and Penn State (-4.5) lose outright in 2018, you can see how the lack of motivation for these schools who just missed out on the playoff does come into play. This year we've got a few more candidates that fit that role, as all eight teams in action finished the year ranked in the Top 18 in the country.

The Baylor/Georgia (-6.5) game is really interesting given that both teams basically needed just a win in their Conference Championship game to be playoff bound, and for the entire Bowl season I'm not sure there is another game where you could have neither side wanting to be there like that one.

Wisconsin (-2.5/3) is currently laying about a FG against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and while neither team likely saw their playoff hopes dashed in the final week of the season, you could make that argument for Wisconsin given they held a halftime lead against #1 Ohio State in the Big 10 Title game and then crumbled after half.

Auburn is laying a TD against Minnesota in a game that could end up being one that bucks this trend, as Auburn was never really a serious playoff contender down the stretch, and Minnesota was, had they not stumbled late in the year.

And then there is the Michigan/Alabama (-7), one that fits taking the points rather well, as long as you believe the Wolverines are able to pick themselves up off the canvas after suffering humiliation yet again in the Ohio State game. That's a role that's buried Michigan before in their Bowl game, but Alabama lost more later in the year in terms of the playoff picture, and having been involved in the CFB playoff every year since its inception, a “regular” Bowl appearance for the Crimson Tide has to be a huge disappointment.

Meanwhile, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is in need of a significant win now more then ever with how his teams have performed against top level competition during his tenure at Michigan, and a lack of excitement/motivation from Alabama could be just what the doctor ordered for Harbaugh's crew. Alabama still has plenty of cache in their name in terms of Harbaugh beating a quality foe, and let's not forget the Tide are still without their starting QB.

That's got to be about as good as it gets situationally for a play on Michigan here, you've just got to hope that the Wolverines are motivated themselves.

[Udog]

Thursday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Independence Bowl (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Louisiana Tech vs. Miami-Florida

-- The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of Conference USA will tangle with the Miami Hurricanes (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.

-- The Bulldogs will be making their 12th bowl appearance in school history, and their fifth-ever appearance in the Independence Bowl. They made their first-ever bowl appearnace against Louisville in 1977, winning 24-14. They lost the next season against East Carolina before returning in 1990 for a tie against Maryland. They also apppeared on Dec. 28, 2008, topping Northern Illinois in a low-scoring game, 17-10. Overall La. Tech holds a 7-3-1 SU record in bowl games, including wins in each of the past five. They topped Hawaii in the Hawai'i Bowl by a 31-14 score in Honolulu last Dec. 22, 2018.

-- The Hurricanes have an extensive bowl history, including five national championships to their credit. However, while they were once one of the most feared football programs in America during the 1980's and 1990's, they have fallen on hard, or really, mediocre, times. Since winning the MPC Computers Bowl over Nevada on New Year's Eve in 2006, they have posted just one win in their previous nine bowl outings. That lone win is a 31-14 victory over West Virginia at the Russell Athletic Bowl, not exactly known as one of the best bowls on the schedule. They haven't faced a Group of Five team in a bowl since that MPC Computers Bowl game, a win. In fact, that was one of just three appearances in school history against a non-Power 5 team. Before 2006, they had a 13-6 win over Holy Cross in the 1946 Orange Bowl, and a 26-0 loss to Bucknell in the 1935 Orange Bowl. So this is unchartered territory.

-- Louisiana Tech is located in Ruston, La., just one hour east of Shreveport off of Interstate 20, so you can expect a pro-Bulldogs crowd. In the state of Louisiana, all in Ruston, the Bulldogs were a perfect 6-0/4-2 ATS. They averaged 45.0 points per game in those six games at home, while going 3-3 SU/ATS in their six true road games, including losses in each of the past two. They averaged just 23.0 PPG in their six games away from home in 2019.

-- Miami were on their way to closing out the season in style. They opened with losses to Florida and North Carolina, before wins against FCS Bethune Cookman and Central Michigan. A loss to Virginia Tech, and a win over Virginia, had them at 3-3 SU/ATS midway through. They lost a tough overtime game to Georgia Tech to slip to 3-4, and a bowl appearance looked rather remote. However, they picked up road wins at Pittsburgh and Florida State to snap on track, and a dominant 52-27 win over Louisville had them in good shape and eligible. However, a stunning loss to crosstown rival Florida International, and a setback at Duke, evened them out at 6-6. Against Group of Five FBS teams they were 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS this season.

-- Miami ranked 88th in total yards (379.7) on offense, while ranking 42nd in passing yards (257.2). They were also a dismal 120th (122.5) in rushing yards per game, while ranking 73rd in points scored (27.8). Defensively, Miami was Miami. They ranked 13th in the nation in yards allowed (307.8), which is what we expect from the Canes. They were also 22nd against the pass (197.9), 16th against the rush (109.8) and 25th in points allowed (20.8).

-- Louisiana Tech was 30th in total yards per game (445.2), 31st in passing yards (277.3) and 60th in rushing yards (167.9) per game, while posting 34.0 points per game to rank 28th. Defensively they were middle of the road, ranking 70th in total yards allowed (393.9), 98th in passing yards allowed (247.8) and 54th in rushing yards allowed (146.2), while yielding 23.7 points per game to check in 46th in the country.

-- Louisiana Tech has covered five of their past seven games overall, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 as an underdog. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their past seven bowl apperances.

-- Miami is 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a favorite.

-- The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles, while going 1-7 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in the past eight bowl games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


Quick Lake Bowl (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Pittsburgh vs. Eastern Michigan

-- The Quick Lane Bowl pits the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference facing the Eastern Conference Eagles (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference at Ford Field in Detroit, Mich.

-- Pittsburgh has enjoyed a lengthy bowl history dating back to the 1927 Rose Bowl. During that history, however, they have never faced a MAC opponent in a bowl game. The Panthers are looking to get untracked after getting dumped 31-24 by Stanford in the Sun Bowl last December.

-- Eastern Michigan heads over from nearby Washtenaw County to downtown Detroit for the fourth bowl game in school history. They're 1-2 SU all-time in bowl games, iwht their only victory coming back in Dec. 1987 against San Jose State in the California Bowl. They lost a narrow battle against Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl in Alabama last season.

-- The Panthers ranked 95th in total yards per game (374.1), while ranking a dismal 121st in rushing yards (120.7) per contest. They were above-average in passing yards per game at 253.4, led by Kenny Pickett, who had 2,737 passing yards. They were just 115th in points scored, however, managing a dismal 20.1 PPG. Defensively they were outstanding, as the Panthers allowed just 302.5 total yards per game to rank 11th in the nation, they gave up just 195.6 passing yards per game to rank 20th and they were 10th against the run with 106.9 yards per game. They also allowed only 21.8 points per game to check in 31st.

-- For the Eagles, they were a mediocre 67th in total yards per game (402.8), while ranking 118th in rushing yards per game (123.1). EMU was a very strong 29th in the nation with 279.7 passing yards per game, while posting 29.1 points per outing to rank 64th. Defensively, EMU had their issues, allowing 428.3 total yards per game to rank 92nd, 66th against the pass (225.8) and 109th against the rush (202.4). They yielded 30.3 PPG to check in 85th overall.

-- Pitt has posted a 10-4 ATS mark in their past 14 games in the month of December, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference battles. They're also a solid 3-0-1 ATS in the past four appearances on a fieldturf surface.

-- The Panthers are a dismal 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs, however, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl appearances.

-- Eastern Michigan is 17-6 ATS in the past 23 following a straight-up loss, and 14-4 ATS in the past 18 after a non-cover.

-- EMU is 17-8 ATS in the past 25 against winning teams, while going 21-7 ATS in the past 28 as an underdog and 17-5 ATS in the past 22 non-conference battles.

-- The under is 28-10-1 in the past 39 games overall for Pittsburgh, while going 7-1 in their past eight as a favorite. The under is 6-1 in their past seven non-conference battles, too, while cashing in four of the past five bowl games as a favorite.

-- The over is 4-1-1 in Eastern Michigan's past six games overall, 3-0-2 in the past five against teams with a winning record and 5-0-1 in the past six as an underdog.

-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[Udog]

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
Joe Williams

Texas Bowl (ESPN, 6:45 p.m. ET)

Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

-- The Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4 straight up, 8-3-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference will square off with the Texas A&M Aggies (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl in Houston, Tex. at NRG Stadium.

-- The Cowboys opened the season 3-0 SU/ATS, but the wins were against Oregon State, McNeese of the FCS and Tulsa. They lost a narrow 36-30 game at Texas Sept. 21 for their first loss, although they ended up with the cover. In fact, they covered their first five games of the season. They topped a very good Kansas State team 26-13 on Sept. 28, and fell against Texas Tech and Baylor in the following two weekends, mainly due to defensive lapses. They yielded 45 points in each of those games. They were better defensively during a four-game win streak against Iowa State, TCU, Kansas and West Virginia, yielding just 20.0 PPG, which is pretty outstanding for the Big 12. They were dumped 34-16 in 'Bedlam', the season-ending rivalry game against Oklahoma.

-- It's all about RB Chuba Hubbard for the Cowboys. He rushed 309 times for 1,936 yards and 21 touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Offensively, the Cowboys were 17th in total yards overall, posting 463.9 yards per game. They're 16th in rushing yards per contest (236.3), while ending up 71st in passing yards (227.7). They scored 33.4 points per game to rank 34th offensively. For the defense, they were 86th in total yards (418.1), 113th in passing yards (267.1) and 59th in rushing yards (151.0) allowed. They yielded 27.0 points per game to check in a mediocre 63rd.

-- The Aggies dropped four games this season, but those losses were against Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia and LSU. Two of those teams are in the playoffs, and all five were in the mix late into the season. What will we get from Oklahoma State?

-- Texas A&M ranked 71st in total yards (399.2), 54th in passing yards (247.1) and 77th in rushing yards (152.1) per game, while posting 30.0 points per game to rank 62nd in the nation. On defense, the Aggies were pretty strong, allowing 341.0 yards per game to rank 31st, they were 48th against the pass (211.7) and 29th against the run (129.3), which is the important stat as they try to contain Hubbard. That will be the prime matchup. They also allowed 22.7 points per game to rank 37th in the country.

-- The Aggies have made 41 previous bowl appearances dating back to 1922. That includes a 33-16 victory over Oklahoma State in the 1981 Independence Bowl. The Aggies have been exciting lately, win or lose. They blasted North Carolina State 52-13 last season in the Gator Bowl, while losing 55-52 to Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl in 2017. They have scored 21 or more points in nine straight games dating back to the 2009 Independence Bowl.

-- For the Cowboys, they have won three straight bowl appearances, including last season's 38-33 win over Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. They have won seven of the past nine bowl games overall. They last appeared in a bowl game in 2016, topping Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl. They lost the 2013 Cotton Bowl to Missouri by a 41-31 score, and the year before they topped Purdue 58-14 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. They also won the 2010 Alamo Bowl in 2010, so Texas has been very good to the Cowboys, and they generally travel well with such close proximity to Stillwater. That will be important since this time they're playing a Texas-based school.

-- Oklahoma State heads into this one 12-2 ATS in the past 14 games as an underdog, and 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 overall. They're also 21-8 ATS in the past 29 non-conference tilts, and 9-2 ATS in the past 11 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The Cowboys are also 4-1 ATS in the past five bowl games, and 5-1 ATS in the past six neutral-site games, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games as an underdog.

-- Texas A&M is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 as a favorite, and they're 11-1 ATS in their past 12 non-conference tilts.

-- The under is 4-1 in OK State's past five games overall, 5-0 in the past five neutral-site games and 5-0 in their past five bowl games.

-- The over is 5-2 in A&M's past seven neutral-site games, 9-3 in the past 12 non-conference tilts and 5-1 in their past six bowl outings.

-- These teams have a history, with Oklahoma State going 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings, with the over 6-2 in the previous eight.


Holiday Bowl (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m.)

Southern California vs. Iowa

-- The San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl will feature the Southern California Trojans (8-4 straight up, 6-5-1 against the spread) against the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) at San Diego County Credit Union Stadium in San Diego, Calif.

-- Head coach Clay Helton has continued to put together wins despite a multitude of injuries and a fanbase which seemingly always wants him gone. USC beat Fresno State and Stanford to open the season, but lost to BYU 30-27 in overtime on Sept. 14. They topped a playoff-contending Utah team by a 30-23 score on Sept. 20 before an ugly loss at Washington on Sept. 28. A loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 12 had them at a crossroads at 3-3 SU/ATS. However, they rattled off wins in five of their final six games to turn things around, including road wins at Arizona State and California in November.

-- The Trojans lost QB JT Daniels (knee) to a season-ending knee injury in the opening game. Enter freshman QB Kedon Slovis, who was an unknown. All he did was emerge with 3,242 passing yards, connecting with WR Michael Pittman Jr. for 1,222 of them, as the offense rolled along despite the losses. In fact, they lost leading rusher RB Vavae Malepeai to injury for a long period, other key skill position members were also hurt, and at one point they were down to fifth-string RB Kenan Christon to serve as the workhorse. They overcame, and now they're pretty healthy heading into the Iowa game.

-- The offense posted 462.2 total yards per game to rank 18th in the nation, including fifth in the pass game at 335.9 yards. They were 113th with 126.3 rushing yards per game, again, they were devastated by injuries at that position. They ranked 36th with 33.2 points per game. Defensively they were 83rd in total yards allowed (415.3), 99th in passing yards allowde (248.9), 76th in rushing yards allowed (166.3) and 66th in points allowed (27.8).

-- Iowa was boring offensively, as they ranked just 98th in total yards (369.8), 67th in passing yards (230.3) and 97th in rushing yards (139.5) while ranking 99th in points per game (23.8). On defense, that's where Iowa had most of their success, allowing just 304.6 total yards per game to rank 12th in the nation, while checking in 11th with 184.2 passing yards per game. They were 25th against the run, too, giving up just 120.4 yards per outing while yielding only 13.2 PPG to rank fifth in the country.

-- These teams have met before in a bowl game, facing each other in the Orange Bowl back on Jan. 2, 2003, in a game which I actually attended. That day it was all USC, as they thrashed the Hawkeyes 38-17 with Pete Carroll at the helm for the Trojans. That's the only meeting in a bowl game between the institutions. USC played a Big Ten team last time they were in a bowl, falling 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl Classic against Ohio Stae on Dec. 29, 2017. Ovearll the Trojans have won eight of the past 10 against the Big Ten, however, in bowl games.

-- The Trojans are 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine against winning teams, but they're just 4-14 ATS in the past 18 as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl games. They're also 0-5 ATS in the past five vs. Big Ten, and 0-7 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games.

-- The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in the past eight non-conference battles, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games in December.

-- USC has hit the over in five in a row, while going 11-4-1 in the past 16 neutral-site games.

-- The under is 8-2-1 in the past 11 games overall for Iowa, and 6-1-1 in their past eight as a favorite. However, the over is 5-0 in their past five appearances on a Friday, 4-1 in the past five bowl games and 3-1-1 in their past five non-conference tilts.


Cheez-It Bowl (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)

Air Force vs. Washington State

-- The Cheez-It Bowl features the Air Force Falcons (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference facing off against the Washington State Cougars (6-6 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz.

-- It was a strange season for the Cougars. It went downhilll against UCLA on Sept. 21, as they blew a giant lead and fell 67-63 in a memorable game where QB Anthony Gordon threw for nine touchdowns -- and they lost! He ended up with 5,228 passing yards overall this season, spreading it out amongst a bevy of consistent receivers. You never knew what Washington State team would show up. They were thrashed at Utah 38-13, but lost a narrow 37-35 game at Oregon on Oct. 26, blowing a game they probably should've won outright. They blasted Stanford 49-22, they edged Oregon State 54-53 on Nov. 23, showing off the pass attack again, and they were dumped 31-13 in the Apple Cup vs. Washington.

-- Air Force did what they do best this season - run. The triple-option is still working wonders for the Falcons, as they won 10 and lost just two, a 30-19 loss at Boise State on Sept. 20, and a 34-25 loss at Navy, against a fellow triple-option team. They won seven in a row to close out the season, including against bowl teams Hawai'i and Utah State.

-- USAFA ranked 51st in total yards per game (424.0), while going for 131.0 passing yards per contest to rank 124th. They were third overall with 293.0 rushing yards per game, and that's where Washington State's D needs to focus. The Falcons scored 34.3 points per game to rank 22nd. Defensively, Air Force allowed 315.8 total yards to rank 16th, while ranking 40th against the pass (208.1), 11th against the run (107.7) and 19th in points scored (19.8).

-- Washington State was ridiculous offensively, and ridiculously bad defensively, which explains why they were just .500. They were sixth overall with 516.8 total yards per game, and fifth in passing yards with 444.3 yards per game. They barely ran the ball, posting just 72.5 yards per game to rank 129th in FBS. They were 10th in points scored at 39.2 per game. Defensively...ugh. They allowed 456.8 total yards per game to rank 113th, they were 122nd against the pass (286.8), and 78th against the run (170.0). They allowed 31.4 points per game to check in 94th.

-- The Cougs are 8-7 in 15 previous bowl games, including 2-3 in the past five appearances under Mike Leach. The won last season's Alamo Bowl against Iowa State by a 28-26 score.

-- The Falcons actually have a much lengthier bowl history, but lately they have been so-so. Air Force is 6-9 SU in their past 15 bowl games, although they did win the Arizona Bowl on Dec. 30, 2016 against South Alabama in their most recent appearance. Air Force is 1-4 SU all-time against the Pac-12 in bowl games, including a 55-36 loss to Cal in the most recent battle on Dec. 29, 2015.

-- Air Force is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven bowl games. They're 21-7 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts, too.

-- Washington State is 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games overall, but they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven non-conference tilts, and 15-7 ATS in the past 22 as an underdog.

-- The under is 4-1 in the past five games overall, and 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The under is 7-2 in the past nine non-conference battles, while going 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in their past four neutral-site games, and 4-1 in the past five bowl games.

[Udog]

LSU vs. Oklahoma
Brian Edwards

LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Venue: at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 4:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -13.5, Over/Under 76

Before making it to Atlanta for its Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl showdown against Louisiana State in the College Football Playoff semifinals, No. 4 Oklahoma lost four key players that’ll be missed against the unbeaten and top-ranked Tigers.

First, SoonerScoop.com reported that three players were suspended on Dec. 18. At his first media event in Atlanta on Dec. 23, OU head coach Lincoln Riley confirmed the suspensions but refused to elaborate on the reasoning behind those players being ‘out’ vs LSU.

The trio of suspended players includes DE Ronnie Perkins, second-string RB Rhamondre Stevenson and backup freshman WR Trejan Bridges. Perkins, a sophomore who has played in all 13 games, has recorded 28 solo tackles, 10 assists, 7.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, six QB hurries and one forced fumble.

Stevenson has appeared in all 13 OU games. The junior RB has 515 rushing yards, six TDs and an 8.1 yards-per-carry average. Bridges is a five-star recruit who didn’t figure to play much vs. LSU anyway. The true freshman has only seven catches for 82 yards.

Making matters worse, SoonerScoop reported on Dec. 20 that starting sophomore safety Delarrin Turner-Yell suffered a broken collarbone at practice. Three days later, Riley confirmed the injury and said, “Right now our expectation is that [Turner-Yell] will not play, but we’ll how see the week goes.”

LSU (13-0 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) dominated Georgia 37-10 to win the SEC Championship Game, easily cashing tickets as a seven-point favorite. Joe Burrow, who won the Heisman Trophy a week later, completed 28-of-38 passes for 349 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.

Justin Jefferson had seven receptions for 115 yards and one TD, while Terrace Marshall Jr. hauled in five catches for 89 yards and two TDs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 57 rushing yards on 15 attempts, in addition to catching seven balls for 61 receiving yards.

LSU darted out to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, hooking up its backers on first-quarter bets as a 3.5-point ‘chalk.’

UGA’s Rodrigo Blankenship briefly stopped the bleeding with a 39-yard field goal to get the Bulldogs on the board, but Cade York extended the Tigers’ lead to 17-3 with a 41-yard FG with 2:22 left until halftime.

York added a 28-yarder early in the third quarter for a 20-3 LSU lead. Then Burrow found Marshall for a four-yard scoring strike with 2:18 left in the third. The Tigers added an eight-yard TD pass from Burrow to Jefferson to make it 34-3, and the blowout was on before the fourth quarter started.

LSU freshman CB Derek Stingley intercepted Georgia QB Jake Fromm twice and had five tackles.

Edwards-Helaire is ‘questionable’ vs. LSU due to a hamstring injury suffered at practice earlier this month, although head coach Ed Orgeron stated Friday that he “believes he’ll play.” Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He leads the SEC in all-purpose yards with 1,903.

As of early Friday, most books had LSU listed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 76. The Sooners were +425 on the money line. For first half-wagers, the Tigers were favored by 7.5 points.

Back on Dec. 8., the Westgate SuperBook opened LSU as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 76.5. The total dipped as low as 75.5 points about a week ago, before inching back up to 76. The Tigers have bounced around in the -13 to -14 range over the last several weeks.

Orgeron’s team is 5-4-1 ATS in its 10 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The Tigers have won 10 of their 13 games by margins of 14 points or more. They won 45-38 at Texas, 46-41 at Alabama and 23-20 vs. Auburn in Baton Rouge.

Although those three final scores were the closest games LSU played, Florida probably gave the Tigers their toughest test in Redstick on Oct. 12. When LSU scored each of its three first-half TDs, the Gators answered each one with a TD drive of their own.

With the game tied 21-21 at halftime, Florida took the opening kick of the second half and promptly marched down the field and took the lead. Kyle Trask hit Van Jefferson for a two-yard TD pass and a 28-21 advantage.

Edwards-Helaire scored on a five-yard TD run to get LSU back even. After getting a stop, the Tigers went back in front 35-28 on a 33-yard TD run from Tyrion Davis-Prince with 3:15 left in the third stanza.

After UF came up empty on a red-zone trip when Stingley intercepted Trask in the end zone, LSU went up 42-28 on Burrow’s 54-yard TD pass to Ja’Marr Chase. The final score was 42-28 after the Gators came up short of the end zone on a fourth-and-goal play from LSU’s one with less than two minutes remaining.

LSU posted other wins over bowl-bound teams, winning 55-7 vs. Georgia Southern, 36-13 at Mississippi State, 42-6 vs. Utah State and 50-17 vs. Texas A&M.

Burrow produced monster numbers that led to run-away win in the voting for the Heisman. The grad transfer from Ohio State completed 77.9 percent of his passes for 4,715 yards with a 48/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He keeps plays alive with his elusiveness in the pocket, and he’s not hesitant to tuck it and run for first downs. Burrow was especially effective at doing that on several big plays in the second half at Alabama. He has 289 rushing yards and three TDs.

Chase has 73 receptions for 1,498 yards and 18 TDs despite missing one game injured. Jefferson has 88 catches for 1,207 yards and 14 TDs, while Marshall has 37 grabs for 545 yards and 10 TDs. Marshall missed three games with a broken bone in his foot sustained in a 66-38 win at Vanderbilt on Sept. 21.

LSU leads the nation in total offense, is second in passing yards and third in scoring with its 47.8 points-per-game average.

Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) is facing an SEC opponent in the CFP semifinals for the third straight season. After coming up short to Georgia in a 54-48 double-overtime thriller at the 2017 Rose Bowl, the Sooners lost 45-34 to Alabama at last year’s Orange Bowl. However, they covered the spread in backdoor fashion as 13.5-point underdogs.

Lincoln Riley’s team is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump, but that factoid has zero relevance since the Sooners are underdogs for the first time this season. During Riley’s three-year tenure, Oklahoma has compiled a 3-1 spread record and collected a pair of outright wins in four games as an underdog.

This is only the second time on Riley’s watch that OU has been a double-digit underdog. As previously noted, the Sooners took the money vs. ‘Bama last year.

Oklahoma won its first five games by margins of 18 points or more. The Sooners improved to 7-0 with wins vs. Texas (34-27) and vs. West Virginia (52-14). They went into Kansas State as a 23.5-point road favorite and found itself down 48-23 after the Wildcats scored on a two-yard TD run by James Gilbert with 12:54 remaining.

OU wouldn’t quit, though. Twenty-two seconds later, Jalen Hurts found CeeDee Lamb for a 70-yard scoring strike. Then with 5:36 remaining, a one-yard TD run from Hurts, in addition to a three-yard pass to Lamb for a two-point conversion, trimmed the deficit to 48-38. The Sooners made it a one-possession game when Gabe Brkic buried a 39-yard field goal with 1:45 left.

OU initially seemed to be in business when it recovered the ensuing onside kick, but replay reviews showed that a Sooner had touched the ball before it had gone 10 yards. Therefore, K-State ran out the clock and captured a 48-41 upset victory.

With one loss, Riley’s bunch remained in the hunt for a CFP berth, albeit with zero room for error. Therefore, Oklahoma fans had to deal with a lot of anxiety when four of its next five games were of the one-possession variety.

After an open date following the loss at Kansas State, OU won a 42-41 decision over Iowa State as a 14-point home favorite. Next, Riley’s team went to Waco to face undefeated Baylor as an 11-point road ‘chalk.’

The Bears raced out to a 31-10 halftime lead. Oklahoma pulled to within 31-17 on Hurts’s three-yard TD pass to Austin Stogner midway through the third quarter. With 12:58 remaining in the final stanza, Hurts found Theo Wease for a 19-yard scoring connection. Hurts’s fourth TD pass and third of the second half was a two-yard scoring strike to Brayden Willis with 5:25 left to tie the game at 31-31.

Oklahoma escaped unscathed with a 34-31 win when Brkic’s 31-yard field goal was true with 1:45 remaining.

Back in Norman the following week, Oklahoma raced out to a 21-0 lead on TCU. The Horned Frogs wouldn’t go away, though, scoring 10 unanswered point to slice the deficit to 11 by halftime. Then with 10:15 left in the third, TCU got to within 21-17. After Hurts scored on an eight-yard TD run, the Sooners were in front by 11 points.

On the verge of putting the game on ice early in the fourth, Hurts was intercepted for a 98-yard pick-six. With the Frogs trailing by just four points, OU’s defense didn’t allow them to get any closer over the final 12 minutes, holding on for a 28-24 triumph.

Many felt OU would get a tough test in Stillwater in its regular-season finale, but that didn’t happen. The Sooners controlled the second half and pulled away for a 34-16 win at Oklahoma State. They covered the rich spread, too, as 14-point road ‘chalk.’

Going into Championship Weekend earlier this month, Oklahoma needed Oregon to beat Utah and LSU to take care of UGA. Obviously, it had to take care of its own business with a rematch vs. Baylor at Jerry World in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Riley’s team took a 10-0 first-quarter lead thanks to a six-yard TD run from Kennedy Brooks and a 44-yard FG from Brkic. Baylor owned the second quarter, however, despite losing starting QB Charlie Brewer to a concussion. The Bears took a 13-10 advantage into intermission.

A pair of 24-yard FGs from Brkic and an 18-yard TD pass from Hurts to Nick Basquine put Oklahoma ahead 23-13 with 10:31 left. At this point, another QB injury had Baylor using third-string signal caller Jacob Zeno, a true freshman who had only appeared in one game previously and is being redshirted.

With 9:41 remaining, Zeno found Trestan Ebner for an 81-yard TD pass to trim the deficit to three. When John Mayers hit a 27-yard FG with 3:25 left, Baylor was back even at 23-23. The game would go to overtime.

In the first extra session, Stevenson found paydirt on a five-yard TD run. Then the Oklahoma defense got a stop to conserve a 30-23 victory and give the Sooners the No. 4 slot in the CFP.

For the season, Hurts has connected on 71.8 percent of his throws for 3,632 yards with a 32/7 TD-INT ratio. He paces the Sooners with 1,255 rushing yards and 18 TDs, averaging 5.7 YPC. Hurts was one of four finalists for the Heisman.

Hurts’s collegiate career has been legendary. He led Alabama to the CFP finals as a freshman and a sophomore, scoring the go-ahead TD on a run at crunch time vs. Clemson as a freshman, only to see Deshaun Watson throw a game-winning TD pass with two seconds remaining just moments later.

Then as a sophomore, Hurts was yanked to start the third quarter of the CFP finals against Georgia in Atlanta. He didn’t pout and played the role of the ultimate teammate as Tua Tagovailoa led the Crimson Tide to a 26-23 comeback win over UGA in overtime. As a junior in 2018, Hurts was relegated to Tagovailoa’s backup, but he continued to be a great teammate and was ready when his number was called at last year’s SEC Championship Game.

When Tagovailoa was injured late in the third quarter, Hurts was the catalyst in leading Alabama back from a 14-point deficit to beat UGA 35-28. That propelled the Tide to another CFP berth, but they lost 44-16 to Clemson in the finals. Atlanta was the venue where he lost his job in January of 2018, and it was the place of his resurrection of sorts 11 months later. Therefore, it’s only fitting that his fourth career appearance in the CFP comes against an SEC foe in a familiar city, The ATL.

For his career, Hurts has a 65.6 completion percentage, 9,260 passing yards and an 80/19 TD-INT ratio. He has 3,231 rushing yards and 41 TDs, in addition to five receptions for 40 yards and one TD.

Lamb is his favorite target, hauling in 57 receptions for 1,206 yards and 14 TDs. Chareston Rambo has 42 catches for 734 yards and five TDs.

Brooks has 976 rushing yards, five TDs and a 6.7 YPC average. He suffered a head injury vs. Baylor earlier this month, but he’s good to go vs. LSU and will have to carry the load on the ground.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for the Sooners to improve to 7-5-1 overall. This is OU’s fourth-highest total of the year and its highest since an Oct. 12 win over Texas. When Oklahoma topped the Longhorns 34-27, the 61 combined points dropped way below the 77.5-point tally. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) when the Sooners have had totals in the 70s. In its season opener, OU had its highest total in a 49-31 win over Houston that saw the 80 combined points push to the 80-point number.

The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for LSU, but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. This is the highest total the Tigers have seen in 2019. The previous high was 72 points in a home game vs. Utah State, which ended up being their third-lowest combined score. LSU beat the Aggies 42-6, with the 48 combined points falling ‘under’ the 72-point tally.

Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. ET.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-- Mississippi State starting QB Garrett Shrader is ‘out’ of the Music City Bowl vs. Louisville due to an eye injury. According to multiple reports, Shrader and junior LB Willie Gay were involved in an altercation that caused the injury. Further testing on Shrader’s eye revealed damage to his orbital bone, although he isn’t expected to need surgery. Nevertheless, he’s ‘out’ against the Cardinals and senior QB Tommy Stevens will get the starting nod. The Bulldogs are favored by four points at most books. Gay, who was suspended for eight regular-season games due to an academic issue, is expected to play.

-- Justin Wilcox announced on Dec. 23 that nine California players won’t play vs. Illinois in the Redbox Bowl. Three of those players are starters and a fourth was going to start against the Fighting Illini. Fifth-year senior safety Ashtyn Davis is ‘out’ after undergoing what Wilcox dubbed as “minor surgery.” In 11 games, Davis had 33 solo tackles, 24 assists, four passes broken up, two forced fumbles, two interceptions and one tackle for loss. Starting WR Jordan Duncan has been “excused” from the team to handle personal matters, according to Wilcox. Duncan is a two-year starter who has 25 receptions for 364 yards and two TDs. Junior LB Telvin Paul (28 tackles, three sacks) and safety Trey Turner III (32 tackles and four PBU) are the other starters who are ‘out.’ Illinois is dealing with a slew of injuries, too, most notably starting QB Brandon Peters and Butkus Award semifinalist Jake Hansen. The Golden Bears are favored by six or 6.5 points at most spots.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 7-1-1 run for Kansas State in its last nine games. The Wildcats face Navy with a total of 52 points.

-- Miami, Fl. fired OC Dan Enos today. Reports of his pending dismissal surfaced hours before yesterday’s Independence Bowl in Shreveport, where La. Tech dealt out cream-cheese treatment to the Hurricanes in a 14-0 win as a seven-point underdog. The Bulldogs cashed money-line tickets in the +220 neighborhood.

-- Eastern Michigan improved to 24-5-2 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog in last night’s gut-wrenching loss to Pitt at the Quick Lane Bowl. The Eagles lost a 34-30 decision when Pitt took its first lead of the game on a TD with 47 ticks left. Nevertheless, the Eagles easily took the cash as 12-point underdogs. They fell to 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in bowl games during Chris Creighton’s tenure. EMU hasn’t won a bowl game since 1987.

-- Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman has hired FSU’s Kendal Briles as the Razorbacks’ next offensive coordinator. That’s two quality coordinator hires for Pittman, who also scored former Missouri HC Barry Odom as his new DC.

-- Reports out of Gainesville indicate that Florida Gators star DE Jabari Zuniga has been practicing and will play vs. Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Since Zuniga suffered a severe ankle sprain at Kentucky in Week 3, he’s tried to make comebacks in key games at LSU vs. UGA, only to suffer setbacks each time. When healthy, Zuniga is one of the nation’s top pass rushers.

-- Florida, a 14 or 14.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. UVA, is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year.

[Udog]

Clemson vs. Ohio State
Joe Nelson

Clemson Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Clemson and Ohio State meet in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl in a pairing of undefeated teams for the College Football Playoff semifinals. Both teams are far from home in Glendale but both programs have College Football Playoff Championships in the five years of the existence of the playoff format and this is perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the bowl season as dominant 13-0 programs face off.

Venue: At State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Clemson -2, Over/Under 63
Last Meeting: 12/31/2016 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinals Clemson (+1) 31, Ohio State 0

Three seasons ago these teams met in this same stadium in the 2/3 matchup of College Football Playoffs. The spread was nearly even and Clemson delivered a blowout win 31-0 with a huge production edge of 470-215. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett had a pair of interceptions each but the Clemson running game had a clear edge while the Tigers were able to hit a few big plays in the air. Clemson would go on to beat Alabama in the championship game for the first of now two titles for Dabo Swinney.

Clemson also beat Ohio State in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl a year before the playoff format and Clemson enters this game on a 29-game winning streak, completing a perfect 15-0 championship season last year and this year again unblemished with only one close call back in late September in Chapel Hill with a one-point escape.

The Tigers didn’t look like a dominant team early in the season as coming off brilliant championship performance last season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence battled interceptions early in the season. The Tigers closed the season on a dominant run with Lawrence combining for 16 touchdowns and no interceptions in the final five games of the season. 1,500-yard rusher Travis Etienne has often been overlooked despite an amazing 8.2 yards per carry average this season as the Tigers scored 605 points this season for more than 46 points per game.

Clemson is the #3 seed however having played through a light ACC schedule and high-quality wins are absent from the schedule with the best results coming over 7-5 Texas A&M, 9-4 Virginia, 8-4 Wake Forest, 7-5 Louisville, and 6-6 North Carolina. The Tigers did technically beat seven bowl teams when you add Charlotte and Boston College to the mix but behind Clemson it was a clear down year for the ACC. The Tigers beat two SEC teams but Texas A&M and South Carolina both had disappointing seasons and like many ACC teams, Clemson also played a FCS foe to pad the numbers.

Swinney is 9-5 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in his bowl and playoff games but after starting 1-3 both SU and ATS, the Tigers have been on a roll in the postseason under his watch with the only ATS loss in that span being the 2017-18 Sugar Bowl vs. the eventual national champion Alabama. Clemson has actually been an underdog in nine of the past 10 postseason games with the lone exception last season’s 30-3 win over undefeated Notre Dame in the semifinals.

In contrast to Swinney’s amazing resume, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will be a head coach for the first time in a postseason game. Day filled in for Urban Meyer for three wins early last season and is now 16-0 as a head coach for the Buckeyes for an amazing start to his career. Day has only been with the program since 2017 as an assistant with past experience in the NFL as well as with Temple and Boston College. Despite his success, his first season will ultimately be judged on this game alone with the Buckeyes back into the playoffs after narrowly missing out as Big Ten champions the past two seasons.

Controversially Ohio State was flipped from the #1 seed in the playoff rankings to the #2 seed, passed up by LSU following the respective Big Ten and SEC championship wins. LSU was more impressive vs. a higher rated foe on championship Saturday but Ohio State’s overall resume bested LSU’s in many of the counts that the selection committee values.

On championship Saturday four teams that Ohio State defeated in the regular season were playing in championship games as the Buckeyes wound up with nine wins over bowl teams. Ohio State was penalized for a poor first half vs. Wisconsin in Indianapolis as well as not getting as much credit for beating a highly regarded Wisconsin team twice compared to if they defeated two distinct similarly highly rated teams. Ultimately Ohio State has five wins over teams rated higher in the playoff rankings than Clemson’s best win over #24 Virginia, including four wins vs. the top 14.

Day was not the only new piece for the Buckeyes, led by Georgia transfer Justin Fields at quarterback. Fields left Georgia last season after not getting a great opportunity behind Jake Fromm. In his first season as a starting quarterback he delivered an incredible campaign finishing third in the Heisman voting with an amazing line of 40 touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for nearly 500 yards. J.K. Dobbins eclipsed 1,800 yards rushing and along with star defensive end Chase Young, that trio comprised half of the top six in the Heisman voting. Ohio State outscored foes 633-163 on the season with dominant numbers, though the defense allowed 17 or more points in each of the final four games following seven straight games allowing 14 or fewer points.

Ohio State has not been an underdog in the postseason since winning the initial College Football Playoff championship game 42-20 vs. Oregon in January 2015. The Buckeyes have been the Rose Bowl champion the past two seasons and this is the first playoff trip since the ugly loss in Glendale vs. Clemson.

Ohio State has been an underdog six times since the start of the 2012 season going 6-0 S/U and ATS including winning 62-39 vs. Michigan last season in the only instance getting points since the 2014-15 national championship. Clemson has rarely been in the small favorite role under Swinney going 4-5 S/U and 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 or fewer points, though all but one of those games was a regular season contest.

Clemson wound up 10-3 ATS this season including 10-2 ATS in FBS games, going 7-0 ATS in FBS games since October started for an incredible run, as a lot of folks fared well supporting the Tigers even at inflated prices including a 30-point spread in the ACC Championship. Ohio State wound up 9-4 ATS this season but lost ATS in three of the final four games including missing the spread in big games vs. Penn State and in the Big Ten championship after an 8-0 ATS run September to early November, with the Buckeyes also faring extremely well in first half numbers.

The victor of this game will head to New Orleans for the national championship in what could be a very hostile environment depending on the Peach Bowl outcome but either team will be a serious threat for the title as this semifinal figures to live up to the billing and hype as one of the best playoff pairings in the history of the format.

[Udog]

Saturday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Camping World Bowl (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

-- The independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) face off with the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla.

-- The FightIng Irish have a rich bowl history, but surprisingly they're 18-19 in their 37 bowl games overall, including an 18-14 loss against Florida State back on Dec. 29, 2011 in this very stadium in the then-named Champs Sports Bowl. They were also tossed aside 30-3 by Clemson is last season's Cotton Bowl in the first-round of the College Football playoffs.

-- The Cyclones of Iowa State do not have as great of a bowl record as Notre Dame. They didn't even play in their first bowl game, surprisingly, until 1971. They were 0-4 in the 70's, and they didn't break through for their first bowl victory until 2000 in the Insight.com Bowl against Pittsburgh, 37-29, behind QB Sage Rosenfels. That was one of just four wins in 14 bowl tries, including a loss last season in the Alamo Bowl against Washington State. This will be the second-ever trip to Florida during bowl season, with Iowa State losing 28-12 in the Hall of Fame Classic in 1978 against Texas A&M in Tampa.

-- Notre Dame had an extremely challenging schedule, and after 10 wins they likely were hoping to land in a more prestigious bowl with a better opponent. But this is a nice matchup for them, and with a chip on their shoulder they could be a dangerous opponent. Their only losses this season came at Georgia, 23-17 on Sept. 21, and at Michigan by a 45-14 count on Oct. 26. They have wins over bowl teams Louisville, Virginia, USC, Virginia Tech and Navy, and they enter on a five-game winning streak while covering the past four.

-- Iowa State was tripped up 27-17 at Kansas State in their rinale, and they dropped each of their past two true road games, including a 42-41 shootout loss at Oklahoma, a playoff team, on Nov. 9, in a highly entertaining game. They also suffered a setback against Oklahoma State at home, Iowa at home and on the road against Baylor. While they have five losses overall, three losses were by a total of four points, and all five setbacks were by a total of just 21 points. They'll fight right to the bitter end, and have the offensive firepower to stay in it.

-- The Fighting Irish ranked 45th in total offense with 431.3 yards per game, while posting 253.0 passing yards to check in 49th in the nation. They were also 46th in the country with 178.3 rushing yards per contest while ranking 13th with 37.1 points per contest. Defensively the Irish were stout, allowing just 325.6 total yards per outing to rank 21st, while ending up third with 163.7 passing yards per outing. If they fail anywhere, it's against the run, as they yielded 161.9 rushing yards per game, but they allowed just 18.7 points per outing to rank 14th.

-- The Cyclones ranked 20th with 459.0 total yards per game, while ranking ninth with 318.3 passing yards per outing. On the run they were just 96th, posting 140.7 yards per outing, while averaging 34.1 PPG to check in 26th. Defensively they were so-so, but in a pass-happy Big 12, their numbers were pretty good. They were 44th in total yards allowed at 362.2, while ranking 71st against the pass with 228.3 yards per game. On the ground, Iowa State allowed just 133.8 yards to rank 33rd, and they coughed up 25.3 PPG to rank 52nd.

-- Iowa State QB Brock Purdy rolled up 3,760 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he also ran for eight scores. Notre Dame's Ian Book can also sling it, posting 2,792 yards with 33 touchdowns and just six interceptions while running for 537 yards and four more touchdowns. With those two under center on both sides, we could have quite the aerial show.

-- The Fighting Irish have covered four in a row, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts, too. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games, with that non-cover last season in the Cotton Bowl vs. Clemson.

-- The Cyclones are 19-6-1 ATS in the past 26 as an underdog, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven non-conference games, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six overall. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four neutral-site games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances in the month of December.

-- It's all under, all the time, for the Cyclones lately. The under is 21-10-2 in their past 33 games overall, and 6-2-1 in the past nine non-conference tilts. The under is 7-0-1 in their past eight neutral-site games, and 6-0-1 in the past seven bowl tilts. The under is also 4-0-1 in the past five in a bowl as an underdog, while going 9-2-1 in the past 12 against winning teams.

-- The under is 5-1 in Notre Dame's past six neutral-site battles, while going 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite.


Cotton Bowl Classic (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Memphis vs. Penn State

-- The Cotton Bowl Classic features a battle between the high-flying Memphis Tigers (12-1 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference against the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex.

-- Penn State was so-so offensively, ranking 64th with 403.7 total yards per game and 69th with 228.7 passing yards per contest. On the ground they managed 175.0 yards per outing to check in 49th, while averaging 34.3 points per game to end up 24th in the land. Defensively they were a lockdown team, ranking 23rd in total yards allowed (330.5), 78th with 232.5 passing yards allowed and just seventh in points per game allowed at 14.1. Against the run, a key for Penn State in this game, they were fifth overall with just 98.0 rushing yards per game allowed.

-- Memphis, the top Group of Five entrant, can really score. They're 10th in the nation with 480.7 total yards per game, 26th in passing yards (284.5) and 34th in rushing yards (196.2), while posting 40.5 points per game to rank eighth in the country. Defensively they can hold their own, ranking 49th with 372.3 total yards allowed, 34th against the pass (200.7) and 79th against the rush (171.6) while allowing 24.4 points per game to check in 76th.

-- Tigers freshman RB Kenneth Gainwell is a handful, as he rumbled for 1,425 yards on the ground while gathering 12 touchdowns. QB Brady White can sling it, too, though, going for 3,560 passing yards, so they're anything but one dimensional.

-- Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford led the way with 2,521 yards, hitting WR KJ Hamler for 858 of those yards. Yetur Gross-Matos posted eight sacks. Clifford (leg) and Gross-Matos (arm) are each listed on the injury report, but both fully expected to play.

-- Memphis is hoping to turn things around in bowl games. They won their first two postseason appearances in 1971, and then 2003. However, they 2-7 since, including four straight bowl losses. They fell 37-34 to Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl last season.

-- Penn State has a lengthy bowl history, and most of it good. However, they haven't been great lately, going 3-6 SU in the past nine, including a loss to Kentucky in last season's Citrus Bowl. They have won two of five bowl trips under current head coach James Franklin. The last time they faced an AAC team in the postseason they lost to Houston in the TicketCity Bowl in the Cotton Bowl, 30-14, back on Jan. 2, 2012.

-- The Tigers are colkd against the number, going 4-9 ATS in the past 13 as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl appearances. In addition, they're 1-10 ATS in the past 11 games in the month of December.

-- Conversely, Penn State is 4-0 ATS in the past four December showings, while going 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 non-conference tilts. They're also 20-9-2 ATS in the past 31 against winning teams, but just 1-4 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- For Memphis, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 games overall, while going 12-4 in the past 16 non-conference tilts and 6-2 in the past eight against winning teams. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 as an underdog.

-- The over has hit in each of the past four neutral-site games for Penn State, while going 4-1 in their past five bowl appearances. The over is 8-1 in their past nine non-conference battles, too, while going 4-1 in the past five vs. AAC foes. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 overall for Penn State, however.

[Udog]

Monday's Bowl Tip Sheet
Joe Williams

First Responder Bowl (ESPN, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

-- The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from Conference USA will tangle with the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference in the ServPro First Responder Bowl in Dallas, Tex. at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

-- The Hilltoppers of WKU finished up the season with three straight wins, including a road rout of Arkansas on Nov. 9, 45-19. They also won seven of their final nine outings, including victories over bowl teams Southern Miss, Charlotte and UAB, and the Hilltoppers ended up covering seven of their final nine outings, too.

-- Western Kentucky doesn't have an extensive bowl history. This will be their sixth-ever postseason showing, and they're looking for their fourth bowl victory. After losing the Little Caesars Bowl to Central Michigan in their bowl debut in 2012, they avenged that loss in a 49-48 shootout vs. CMU in the 2014 Bahamas Bowl. That kicked off a three-game bowl win streak which also included a 45-35 win over South Florida in the 2015 Miami Beach Bowl and a 51-31 win over Memphis in the 2016 Boca Raton Bowl. They were tripped up 27-17 by Georgia State in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 16, 2017 in their most recent bowl showing.

-- The Broncos have appeared in nine bowl games all-time, but they have just one win to show for their efforts. Their lone win was in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl over Middle Tennessee. They coughed up a 49-18 loss to BYU last season in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, and they suffered a 24-16 loss to Wisconsin on Jan. 2, 2017 in the Cotton Bowl, easily their most impressive season to date.

-- Western Michigan no longer rows the boat for P.J. Fleck, but they have continued to be relevant since his departure for Minnesota. They blew a chance at the MAC Championship Game last time out on Nov. 26, losing at Northern Illinois by a 17-14 score as a 10-point favorite. That snapped a season-high three-game win streak which included victory over Bowling Green, Ball State and Ohio. One interesting thing about Western Michigan this season is that they alternated covers and non-covers in each of their 12 games this season, failing to cover last time out.

-- The Broncos had a powerful offense, ranking 23rd in the nation with 457.3 total yards per game while ranking 56th in passing yards (244.6) and 24th in rushing yards (212.7). They were also 25th in the country with 34.2 points per contest. Defensively, WMU wasn't very good, ranking 82nd with 414.6 total yards per game allowed, while ranking 69th in passing yards allowed (228.1) and 94th in rushing yards allowed (186.5) per game. They also yielded 26.2 PPG to check in 57th.

-- The 'Toppers struggled on offense, ranking just 87th with 380.0 total yards per game, while posting 251.1 passing yards per game to finish 52nd in the land. They also posted a dismal 128.9 rushing yards to rank 109th in the nation, while managing 25.6 PPG to end up 90th. On defense, they yielded 337.8 total yards to rank 29th, they were 32nd in passing yards (200.2) and 40th in rushing yards (137.7) per game, while allowing 20.1 points per game to rank 21st in the country.

-- Western Kentucky is 7-2 ATS in the past nine games overall and 5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. However, they're 5-13 ATS as a favorite.

-- Western Michigan is 2-5 ATS in the previous seven neutral-site appearances, while going 2-8 ATS in the past 10 as an underdog, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven showings in the month of December.

-- The over is 4-1 in Western Kentucky's past five overall, and 5-1 in the past six neutral-site games. The over is also 7-2 in the past nine as a favorite, but the under is 5-2 in their past seven tries against winning sides.

-- The over is 4-1 in WMU's past five bowl games, and 6-1 in the past seven as an underdog. However, the under is 5-2-1 in their past eight games overall.


Music City Bowl (ESPN, 4:00 p.m.)

Mississippi State vs. Louisville

-- The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl will pit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) against the Louisville Cardinals (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. in a rematch of the 2017 TaxSlayer Bowl, which went to Mississippi State 31-27.

-- The Bulldogs might have made the cut for a bowl by the slimmest of margins of any team in this season's postseason field. They won 21-20 at home against Mississippi in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night thanks to a missed extra point. That missed PAT came after an unsportsmanlike penalty on that nonsense where the wide receiver who scored the touchdown imitated a dog urinating while celebrating in the end zone. Hey, however you get it done. Mississippi State did win three of their final four games, while covering in those three wins, and the 'under' cashed in the final three.

-- The Cardinals didn't need any late-game antics in the finale to get into the bowl field. They clinched bowl eligibility on Nov. 16 with a 34-20 win at N.C. State, and they followed it up with a 56-34 win over Syracuse the next week. However, the Cardinals might be champing at the bit after getting throttled 45-13 in their season finale against rival Kentucky of the SEC.

-- Mississippi State has a lengthy bowl history which dates back to an Orange Bowl loss in 1936, a 13-12 loss to Duquesne, by the way. They also beat Georgetown 14-7 in the 1941 Orange Bowl, so yeah, they've been around. In more recent times, they have won three of their past four bowl showings, but they lost in the Outback Bowl last season to Iowa in a 27-22 nailbiter. They have appeared in the Music City Bowl once before, topping Wake Forest 23-17 back on Dec. 30, 2011.

-- Louisville's bowl history dates back to 1958, a 34-20 win over Drake in the Sun Bowl. More recently, the Cardinals have dropped two straight bowl games, including that TaxSlayer Bowl in 2017 to the Bulldogs. They won the 2015 Music City Bowl over Texas A&M by a 27-21 score in their only other previous appearance at Nissan Stadium.

-- The Cardinals ranked 35th in the nation with 442.8 total yards per game, while ranking 70th in the pass with 227.7 yards per game. Rushing was a strong suit, ranking 23rd with 215.2 yards per game, as RB Javian Hawkins rumbled for 1,420 yards and eight touchdowns. They ended up with 32.7 points per game to check in 40th. Defensively, the Cardinals had a lot of issues, ranking 107th in total yards (446.3), 84th in passing yards (235.3), 115th in rushing yards (211.0) and 111th in points allowed (33.8) per game.

-- The Bulldogs were rather so-so in most facets of the game, which isn't surprising since they ended up 6-6. They were just 67th in total yards (402.9), 112th in passing yards (176.0) and 75th in points scored (27.6). However, they were 18th in rushing yards per game at 226.9, as Kylin Hill posted 1,347 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, they were also rather marginal, ranking 68th in total yards (390.1), 92nd in passing yards (241.3) and 55th in rushing yards (148.8) allowed per game. They also yielded 28.1 PPG to rank 68th.

-- MSU is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 non-conference games, but they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven appearances on a grass surface and 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams.

-- Louisville has covered in just one of the past five neutral-site games, while going 0-4 ATS in the past four tries vs. SEC. They're also a dismal 4-12-1 ATS in the past 17 games out of conference.

-- The Bulldogs have hit the under in five of their past seven games overall, but the over is 4-1 in the past five non-conference games and 5-2 in the past seven neutral-site contests.

-- The over cashed in the final four for the Cards. However, the under is 5-0 in their past five bowl appearances, while going 6-2-1 in the past nine neutral-site affairs.


Redbox Bowl (FOX, 4:00 p.m.)

California vs. Illinois

-- The Redbox Bowl has the California Bears (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference meeting the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6 straight-up, 8-4 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.

-- Cal fired out of the gate at 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS in their first two games, including road wins at Washington and at Mississippi. Things were humming right along, but then injuries reared their ugly head, particularly to QB Chase Garbers, and the Bears took a big step back. They lost four in a row to Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State and Utah, and suddenly bowl eligibility didn't look so certain. They posted perhaps a season-saving 33-20 win over Washington State as 8.5-point underdogs before finishing off the season with wins at Stanford and at UCLA, covering three of the final four.

-- Illinois was stumbling to a 2-4 SU start, although they did give Michigan a scare Oct. 12 in a 42-25 loss which was much closer than the score indicates. That gave them confidence heading into the next week, as they won outright as 28.5-point underdogs for one of the biggest upsets across college football in a 24-23 win over Wisconsin. They rattled off four straight wins to attain bowl eligibility, winning at Purdue, home to Rutgers and at Michigan State in a game with a monster comeback. They won that game in East Lansing 37-34 as 11-point underdogs, their third win of the season as a double-digit 'dog. They also finished up 6-1 ATS in the final seven. An inexplicable 29-10 loss at home to rival Northwestern won't splash cold water on their season. The Illini are going bowling.

-- The Illini are playing in a bowl for the first time since the Heart of Dallas Bowl on Dec. 26, 2014, a 35-18 setback to Louisiana Tech. Their last win in a bowl came ovr UCLA in the Fight Hunger Bowl on Dec. 31, 2011. They're 0-4 SU in their past four bowl games against the Pac-12 since topping Washington 17-7 in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 1964.

-- Cal is making a bowl appearance for the second straight season, and they hope to find a little more offense than they had in a 10-7 loss to TCU in the Cheez-It Bowl last season. The Golden Bears will be playing their 14th bowl appearance in school history in the state of California. They're 4-8-1 SU in their past previous 13 bowl appearances inside the confines of the Golden State.

-- The Illini managed just 319.7 total yards per game to rank 120th, and they were 110th with 177.0 passing yards per game, with WR Josh Imatorbhebhe leading the way with 634 receiving yards. They did manage to post 27.3 points per game to rank 78th. Defensively, they allowed 410.7 total yards per game to rank 79th, while allowing just 208.0 passing yards per game to finish 39th. On the ground, they struggled, giving up 202.7 yards per game to check in 110th, but they still allowed just 25.4 points per game to finish 53rd. Defensively, Oluwole Betiku Jr. cashed in with eight sacks.

-- Cal is 1-4 ATS in their past five games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts and 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games. They're also a dismal 1-6 ATS in the past seven neutral-site battles.

-- Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the past five as an underdog, while hitting in six of the past seven games overall. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight neutral-site contests.

-- The under is 7-2 in Cal's past nine non-conference battles, while going 20-7 in the past 27 games overall. They have hit the over in seven of their past 10 bowls, and 6-1 in the past seven against the Big Ten conference.

-- The under is 5-1 in Illinois' past six non-conference tilts, 4-1 in the past five against the Pac-12 Conference and a perfect 6-0 in their past six neutral-site battles.