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**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:30 AM

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:30 AM

303ARMY -304 NAVY
ARMY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs good passing QB's (>8 PYA) in the last 3 seasons.

NCAAF
Dunkel

Army @ Navy

Game 303-304
December 14, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Army
80.034
Navy
87.581
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Navy
by 10
41
Dunkel Pick:
Army
(+10); Under

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 14

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ARMY (5 - 7) vs. NAVY (9 - 2) - 12/14/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 16-38 ATS (-25.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 164-120 ATS (+32.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 76-42 ATS (+29.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 81-46 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 42-19 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 2-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Army/Navy

Underdogs covered 7 of last 8 Army-Navy games, with Army winning last three SU; average total in last five meetings: 31.4. Navy won 7 of its last 8 games; their only losses TY were to Notre Dame (52-20), Memphis (35-23). Middies have run ball for 378+ yards in 6 of their last 7 games; they covered all five games as a favorite TY. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games- Navy allowed 40.3 ppg in last three games, and won two of them. Army lost six of its last eight games after a 3-1 start were the only loss was in OT at Michigan. Cadets are 12-9-2 ATS in last 23 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY.

NCAAF

Army/Navy

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Trend Report
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Navy Midshipmen
Navy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games
Navy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 5 games
Navy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Army
Navy is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing Army
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 5 games when playing Army
Army Black Knights
Army is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Army is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Army is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Army is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Navy
Army is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy

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**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:31 AM

Trends - Army vs. Navy
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 14
Matchup Skinny
Edge

ARMY vs. NAVY (at Philadelphia)...Major “under” series with 13 meetings in a row going that way. Navy had won 14 in a row SU in series until 2016, when Army began current 3-game win streak. Note underdog side has also covered in last five and 8 of last 10 in series. Army 6-2 last 8 as dog. Mids on 11-3-1 spread uptick since late 2018 and are 6-1 as chalk in 2019.
“Under,” based on series “totals” trends.

Army vs. Navy - Best Bets
Matt Blunt

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 15 (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Navy -10.5, Tota. 40.5

The college football regular season is in the books, conference champions have been crowned, and the playoff and bowl games have all been laid out. Meaning the only thing left is the annual Army/Navy game that acts as the unofficial bridge from regular season to bowl season play in the sport.

While the annual tradition on the field for this game showcases how special those involved in either of these programs are on a daily basis, from a betting market perspective, there is an annual tradition involved too. That is, when the Army/Navy game arrives, take the 'under' and already spend your winnings like a Christmas bonus. The 'under' has cashed in 13 straight years in this matchup, and to the shock of no one, this year's total saw nothing but 'under' action out of the gate.

For bettors that love to play streaks and live by the notion that you 100% have to ride streaks until they buck you because you can win multiple units riding said streak and only lose one when it halts, the 'under' in the Army/Navy game is always their glowing example of that case study.

So the question remains, will that streak stay in tact and give the masses another early holiday bonus, or will Scrooge finally show up and let both of these teams put some points up on the scoreboard?

CFB Odds: Navy (-10.5); Total set at 40.5

Before I go further into the total talk here, the side needs to be addressed. Remember, it had quite a streak as well with Navy winning 14 straight meetings from 2002 through 2015. The Black Knights finally squashed that back in 2016 with a 21-17 win and have now rung that up to three straight entering this year's game.

Now, seeing Army as a big underdog in this game is something bettors are quite used to as well, but for a team that saw an absurd amount of support in the preseason season win total market at 'over' 10 wins, you've got to wonder if similar support will show up this week. I'm not sure how you could expect any Service Academy team to win double digits entering the year – their undersized lines (OL and DL) because of their off-field duties are always going to be prone to getting worn down and beat up on by prototypical football teams – and that's not even considering a lack of execution angle that's bound to pop up from time to time in games. That's not to say Service Academy teams aren't capable of winning 10+ games, they definitely are, (Navy will hit 10 wins with a win this week), but to 'expect' it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. To each his own though.

I bring that up because this Army team was expected to be much better then their current 5-7 SU record coming into this game. And with no Bowl game after this one, what's the best way for Army to put a positive cap on an otherwise disappointing campaign? Beating Navy of course.

A fourth straight win in this rivalry would be only the second time Army's program has accomplished that feat since before 1950 (they won five in a row from 1992-1996), an no matter how the entire season has gone for either program, winning this game ultimately makes their year. Given that Navy severely outperformed their preseason projections – they came into the year with a win total at 5.5 – taking the points with an Army team that's got plenty to prove would be the main way I'd look against the spread.

But that also means that you are going against a senior class at Navy that's yet to experience a win in this rivalry in their careers – yes, I know Navy could win and Army could cover – and given that the Midshipmen have been the ones to be better and more consistent all year long, stepping in front of that can be considered a tricky proposition. Teasing Navy down (or Army up for that matter) is always an option as well, but that means you need something to tease it to. Which brings me to the total.

There isn't a whole lot of need to go into all the main reasons why the 'under' has been so successful, as they are points that are beaten down to exhaustion and there is little need to get latched on to that pipe. If you are going the teaser route, teasing it 'under' the number definitely makes a whole lot of sense, but at the same time, that's going to be the overwhelmingly popular way to play this game, and that can be fundamentally problematic in handicapping routines/behaviors if you aren't at least considerate of the highly popular side.

Instead, let's see if there is a potential case to be made for the 'over'.

Well for one, the fact that Navy outperformed and Army underperformed relative to their preseason projections could actually work in the favor of an 'over' here.

From the Navy perspective, they've found a method that works for them this season and has produced favorable results. They put up at least 20 points in every single one of their games this year, 34+ points in nine of their 11 games, and only had one game finish with a combined score less than 52 points. That was a 35-3 win against USF, and with plenty of 'under' money likely yet to hit the board for this game (it's only Wednesday), we could see this total close at 38 or lower too. Even Navy's game against Air Force saw both teams put up at least 25 points, and if you are looking for a comparable, that's got to be the first place to look.

From Army's perspective, this is their last shot in 2019 to prove that there was at least some truth in that 10-win projection they had coming into the year, and it's not like Navy's defense can't be scored on. Army finished the year by putting up 31+ points in three straight games, and while their tilt with Air Force ended in a 17-13 loss, Army had 214 passing yards – yes 214 passing yards – in defeat. Which leads into my second point...

An 'over' in college football generally relies on needing the underdog to put up points and carry their weight. Given that Army averaged their most pass attempts per game (10.6) this year and most completions per game (5.1) since 2013 is relatively important. That's because the 2013 Army/Navy game was the last time this contest saw 41 or more points. It landed right on the nose of 41 (34-7), and Navy did the majority of the scoring that day, but Army throwing the ball more does lend itself to getting more points. Either through those pass attempts connecting – and likely in a big way – or more clock stoppages to actually slow the game down and give both sides maybe an extra possession or two relative to what we are used to seeing from them in recent years.

Obviously that logic will feel like a stretch for some, as it's always going to be easier to look at 13 straight 'unders' and just blindly ride it, and who knows, maybe we do see it cash for a 14th straight time. But eventually this 'under' run will end, and with both sides having a winning record to the 'over' this year – Army is 6-5-1 O/U while Navy is 7-4 O/U – and both being plenty comfortable in games where they need 30+ points to win, I'm going to look for that streak to be broken this season.

There is always going to be inherent value in looking at the high side of the total in this game because of the long 'under' run it's been on, and with rain in the forecast, maybe we get a few critical turnovers to get some quick points up on the board to help the cause.

It still doesn't hurt to wait as I doubt this number goes much higher, if at all, as it's likely to keep dropping once more recreational money hits the board with this being the only game in town. But I've got to publish my thoughts now, at 40.5, I'm plenty comfortable going against the grain and taking the high side of this total.

Best Bet: Over

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:32 AM

New Year's Six opening odds and early action: Bettors pile on LSU in College Football Playoff vs. Oklahoma
Patrick Everson

Joe Burrow led LSU to a 13-0 SU record (8-5 ATS) and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers opened -11.5 vs. Oklahoma at PointsBet USA and were bet up to -13 by Monday.

The College Football Playoff qualifiers are set, as is the field for the rest of the New Year’s Six bowl games. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

Peach Bowl

No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Louisiana State Tigers (-11.5)

Louisiana State rumbled through the regular season, including an impressive win at Alabama, and continued rumbling in the Southeastern Conference title game Saturday. The Tigers (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) pounded Georgia 37-10 as 7.5-point neutral-site favorites, playing in the same stadium that will host this CFP semifinal on Dec. 28.

Oklahoma had a much bumpier road to the CFP, losing at Kansas State as 23.5-point chalk on Oct. 26, followed by narrow wins in its next three outings. That included falling behind 28-3 at Baylor before rallying for a 34-31 victory. In Saturday’s Big 12 championship game, the Sooners (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) got another crack at Baylor and again had a fight on their hands, winning 30-23 in overtime as 9-point faves.

“The high opener and almost immediate adjustment are indicative of each team’s body of work, as well as their respective performances on Saturday,” Chaprales said of a line that’s already shot to Tigers -13. “LSU is a wrecking ball, and it’s clearly going to take an inflated number to oppose them.”

Fiesta Bowl

No. 3 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (+2.5)

Ohio State dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the CFP rankings after needing a comeback to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) trailed 21-7 at halftime, but pitched a second-half shutout en route to a 34-21 victory laying 16.5 points.

Clemson had no such issues in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship matchup, as it secured its fifth straight CFP berth. The Tigers (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) hammered Virginia 62-17 laying 29 points in the neutral-site contest.

“This line would have likely been closer to a pick’ em had Ohio State not looked so shaky for a good chunk of the Big Ten title game,” Chaprales said. “That’s reflected in the fact that the first move was toward the Buckeyes.”

Indeed, after opening Clemson -2.5, the line ticked to -2 at PointsBet. This matchup is also Dec. 28, following the Oklahoma-LSU game.

Cotton Bowl

No. 17 Memphis Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-7)

Penn State dropped two of its last four games – tough road contests against Minnesota and Ohio State – but still snagged a New Year’s Six berth. The Nittany Lions (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) finished the regular season with a 27-6 home win giving 38.5 points against Rutgers.

Memphis earned a New Year’s Six spot by virtue of being the highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences. The Tigers (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) got a late touchdown to outlast Cincinnati 29-24 as 9-point favorites in the American Athletic Conference title game.

“The public will be on Penn State, and the only question is how much higher the number will need to get before we see some sharp resistance on Memphis,” Chaprales said.
This matchup opens the New Year’s Six slate, a noon ET kickoff on Dec. 28.

Orange Bowl

No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 9 Florida Gators (-12.5)

Florida has two more-than-respectable losses this season, to Southeastern Conference title game participants LSU and Georgia, and has been a solid pointspread play all year. The Gators (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished the regular season with a 40-17 victory over Florida State giving 17 points at home.

Virginia made a four-game run through November to earn a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference final, then hit the wall against Clemson. The Cavaliers (9-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) got trucked 62-17 catching 29 points in the neutral-site contest, but still mustered a berth in this Dec. 30 tilt.

Gators money showed up quickly at PointsBet, pushing the line up a full point to Florida -13.5.

“It’s tough to envision much public support for a Virginia team that just got smashed by Clemson,” Chaprales said in assessing this Dec. 30 meeting. “Which is to say, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line rise even higher.”

Rose Bowl

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 6 Oregon Ducks (+2.5)

Oregon is perhaps left to wonder what could have been, if it hadn’t inexplicably lost at Arizona State as 13-point chalk in the penultimate regular-season game. The Ducks (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) still reached the Pac-12 title game, where they spoiled Utah’s CFP hopes with a 37-15 victory as 6.5-point pups.

Wisconsin had its own inexplicable loss, at Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite in mid-October, followed a week later by a blowout setback at Ohio State. The Badgers (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) rebounded to reach the Big Ten title game and a rematch with the Buckeyes, and Wisconsin stunningly led 21-7 at halftime. But the Badgers didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 34-21 while cashing as 16.5-point ‘dogs.

“An intriguing matchup in what figures to be one of the highest-handle bowl games, apart from the playoff matchups,” Chaprales said of this New Year's Day clash. “Early action has all come in on Wisconsin, which would indicate this number could be trending toward 3.”

Sugar Bowl

No. 7 Baylor Bears vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5)

Georgia certainly had a shot at a CFP berth by reaching the SEC final, but was no match for now-No. 1 playoff seed LSU. The Bulldogs (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) tumbled 37-10 as 7.5-point underdogs.

After blowing a huge lead at home to Oklahoma in a regular-season loss, Baylor got a shot at redemption and possibly a CFP bid in the Big 12 title game. The Bears (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) played the Sooners tough Saturday, but fell 30-23 while cashing as 9-point ‘dogs.

“Deja vu for Georgia, which clearly didn’t want any part of the Sugar Bowl last year, and it showed,” Chaprales said, alluding to the Bulldogs’ 28-21 loss to Texas laying 12.5 points. “I’d imagine the public will be interested in a Baylor squad that’s steadily cashed tickets this season and figures to have the motivational edge.”

The Bears head into this New Year's Day game having cashed five in a row and in eight of their last 10 outings.

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:33 AM

Hot & Not Playoff - Part 1
Matt Blunt

With last week's piece dissecting the conference championship games touched on a few things, the actual selections it suggested – Hawaii against the spread (ATS) and Wisconsin (ATS) – ended up splitting the board. It was a week that saw favorites and underdogs go dead even at 5-5 ATS in the championship games, and while personally I was on the wrong side of that break even split between favorites and 'dogs, it was interesting to see that it did shake out with a .500 record.

And thanks to those results, we've now got the CFB Playoff for this year lined up and it should be a great one no matter how it shakes out. It is interesting to note that there is quite an extended rest between the semi finals and the title game, so keep that in mind when the time comes, as one of LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma will be your 2019 champion.

Speaking of which, this week's piece aims to help us find which one of those four programs will end up hoisting the trophy, and because of it there will be a change of format. Hopefully it's easy to follow and you can find value in any or all of the information presented, and I do have one thing to mention in that regard.

If you do find value in any of this information and want to share it with the masses out there in the “time vaccum” known as social media, how about giving a little credit where it's due. It doesn't have to be to me personally, but at least to this site because they are the ones willing to put this stuff out there and up on their platform. I've heard it's happened multiple times in the past this year, and while I'm all for sharing of knowledge to help us all become better bettors, there is always a better way to do so in terms of giving credit when it's due. And if you don't find value in the information, that's fine too.

Which does lead me to one of the most popular historical perspective to get bandied about over the next month and it is one that's got very little value from my perspective too. That is the fact that no #1 or #3 seed in the CFB Playoff is something I'm sure you'll hear plenty of in the coming weeks and maybe there is something to that. That would be a negative for LSU and Clemson this year, but I believe the other historical perspectives I'm about to present are much more actionable and they'll be broken down by category in the format change.

Let's get to it, as I've split this piece in two so as to cover everything. And remember, there is always a first time for everything.

*All numbers are pulled from regular season data only (including conference championship games) for the CFB Playoff teams that particular season

ATS Records

2019: LSU: 8-5; Ohio State: 9-4; Clemson: 10-3; Oklahoma: 5-8 ATS

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 8-5; Clemson: 7-6; Notre Dame: 6-4-2; Oklahoma: 5-7-1
2017: Clemson: 8-4-1; Oklahoma: 8-5; Georgia: 9-4; Alabama: 5-7
2016: Alabama: 9-4; Clemson: 6-7; Ohio State: 6-6; Washington: 7-6
2015: Clemson: 6-7; Alabama: 7-6; Michigan State: 5-7-1; Oklahoma: 9-3
2014: Alabama: 5-8; Oregon: 9-4; Florida State: 3-10; Ohio State: 8-5

Point #1: In the history of the CFB Playoff, every National Champion had at least 5 ATS losses

Positive for: LSU and Oklahoma
Negative for: Ohio State and Clemson

Call it a statistical anomaly or whatever you want, but the best money earner in the market for the season hasn't equated to national titles in the history of the playoff. In the five years we've had it, the best regular season ATS record was pulled off by the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-5 ATS) while since then it's been records of 7-6, 6-7, 5-7, and 7-6 ATS that have come out on top.

Point #2: The team with the best regular season ATS record has been the runner-up in each of the last three years, and four of the five seasons overall

Negative for: Clemson

No need to spend too much time on this point, as it suggests the defending champs from Clemson will be the ones to get past the Buckeyes in the semis but fall short in the final with their 10-3 ATS record this year. Clemson opened up as a slight favorite as the #3 seed and you know that won't be taken too lightly by the market. But we are simply trying to find the eventual champion, so in terms of this piece, this is actually considered a negative for Dabo Swinney's program. Just another piece of ammunition for his absurd rhetoric train though.

3rd Down Conversion Rate Percentage – Offense

2019: LSU: 49.67; Ohio State: 56.97; Clemson: 47.30; Oklahoma: 49.24

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 52.55; Clemson: 43.95; Notre Dame: 44.32; Oklahoma: 51.18
2017: Clemson: 45.99; Oklahoma: 43.06; Georgia: 45.70; Alabama: 40.43
2016: Alabama: 48.80; Clemson: 51.09; Ohio State: 48.65; Washington: 44.83
2015: Clemson: 46.70; Alabama: 35.43; Michigan State: 50.53; Oklahoma: 44.58
2014: Alabama: 52.91; Oregon: 49.70; Florida State: 46.05; Ohio State: 51.52

Point #1: In each of the last two CFB Playoffs, and three of the last four, the team with the WORST 3rd down conversion rate percentage has won the title

Positive for: Clemson

We go from a negative to a positive here for the Clemson Tigers, as they are the “worst” of the bunch in staying on the field offensively and keeping drives going on 3rd down. Recent history has treated these teams kindly as the Tigers found themselves in this same spot a year ago at 43.95%, and knocked off the best team (Alabama was 52.55% in 2018) in the dominating fashion in last year's title game.

Point #2: The team with the best 3rd down percentage has only won the national title once – Clemson in 2016

Negative for: Ohio State

Another brief and simple point here, that doesn't exactly work out in Ohio State's favor, as their 56.97% rate is actually the best we've ever seen from any team in the CFB Playoff era. Whether or not that translates into this point being one that gets tossed to the curb this year remains to be seen, as that conversion rate is superb, but also one that's going to be seemingly hard to keep up with the level of competition the Buckeyes will have to go through.

3rd Down Conversion Rate Percentage – Defense

2019: LSU: 29.65; Ohio State: 28.65; Clemson: 30.60; Oklahoma: 31.61

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 30.34; Clemson: 27.60; Notre Dame: 37.82; Oklahoma: 45.18
2017: Clemson: 28.19; Oklahoma: 38.67; Georgia: 32.95; Alabama: 32.92
2016: Alabama: 30.53; Clemson: 30.17; Ohio State: 30.77; Washington: 31.11
2015: Clemson: 24.86; Alabama: 28.88; Michigan State: 35.06; Oklahoma: 40.00
2014: Alabama: 36.90; Oregon: 41.97; Florida State: 40.98; Ohio State: 36.90

Point #1: Every National Champion in the CFB Playoff era has been either the best, or 2nd best in Opponent 3rd down conversion rate percentage

Positive for: LSU and Ohio State

The old adage that “defense wins championships” tends to be true in the CFB playoff, as teams that are the best of the best in this category tend to find themselves with holding a trophy at the end of it. Considering the only other year we had two of the four teams with a sub-30% opponent 3rd down rate was back in 2015, and they both made it to the title game - Clemson and Alabama squaring off in their first epic championship meeting, that bodes well for both LSU and Ohio State to have a shot at the trophy this year.

In fact, only one team with a sub-30% rate failed to make the title game – Clemson in 2017 – so based on this history, it's hard not to expect a #1 vs #2 matchup in the Final. Those two programs met 12 years ago in the title game when it was also held in New Orleans with LSU winning as the #2 seed, and Buckeyes fans would love to return the favor.

Point #2: The team with the better number in this category when we reach the title game has won four of five national championships – only outlier was in 2015

Positive for: Yet to be determined

This is yet to be determined obviously, but with about two weeks between the semi-finals and the title game, this is something to definitely keep in mind. 2015 was the only outlier but it was also the only year where both finalists were in that sub-30% range which is to say that both were lights out in that regard and Alabama just happened to be a bit better on that day.

Heisman Trophy Winners

2019: Yet to be determined

2018: Kyler Murray
2017: Baker Mayfield
2016: Lamar Jackson
2015: Derrick Henry
2014: Marcus Mariota

Point #1: No Heisman winning QB has gone on to win the National Title, and playoff teams with the Heisman winner are 1-for-4 in terms of winning it all.

Positive for: Ohio State (potentially)
Negative for: LSU (likely)

The rest of the statistical categories will come in Part 2 of this piece, but for those that don't mind ending Part 1 on a bit of fluff, I thought I'd put this in.

Considering that LSU QB Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year currently, LSU fans may prefer that not to be the case. But as I said at the opening, there is a first time for everything, and maybe this will be that year that Burrow and LSU break that trend.

That being said, if a non-QB wins the trophy – say DE Chase Young for Ohio State – it's actually turned out to be a positive for that team in terms of their title hopes. RB Derrick Henry was the only Heisman winner to win a title that same year (2015), and should Young pull out the award, Buckeyes fans will be happy to hear it.

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:34 AM

Hot & Not Playoff - Part 2
Matt Blunt

And so it continues, as there are more statistical categories that I believe have been historically relevant in producing a CFB Playoff winner, and if you have already gone through Part 1 (insert link here) of my breakdown, there is still more to come. No need to labor with the introduction because of it, so let's keep on plugging away:

*All numbers are pulled from regular season data only (including conference championship games) for the CFB Playoff teams that particular season

Takeaways Per Game

2019: LSU: 1.7; Ohio State: 1.9; Clemson: 2.2; Oklahoma: 0.7

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 1.7; Clemson: 1.5; Notre Dame: 1.7; Oklahoma: 0.8
2017: Clemson: 1.4; Oklahoma: 1.3; Georgia: 1.4; Alabama: 1.5
2016: Alabama: 1.8; Clemson: 1.8; Ohio State: 2.1; Washington: 2.4
2015: Clemson: 1.9; Alabama: 1.8; Michigan State: 2.2; Oklahoma: 2.2
2014: Alabama: 1.5; Oregon: 2.0; Florida State: 2.0; Ohio State: 2.2

Point #1: No team with a Takeaways per game number of 2.0 or greater has made the Title game in the last four years

Negative for: Clemson

More fuel for the fire of Dabo Swinney's rhetoric train here, as on the surface being the best at taking the ball away from your opponent is always a positive. But that hasn't been the case recently in the CFB Playoff as it appears some 'regression to the mean' shows up at the worst time for these teams. There have only been four teams of the past 16 to even have a shot at overcoming this fact, so sample size isn't exactly great, but these are the facts and recent history isn't on Clemson's side here. Swinney does like speaking about “the first time since...” so here's another thing you can have at in that regard.

Point #2: No team with a Takeaways per game number below 1.4 has ever made the Title Game

Negative for: Oklahoma

This far through the piece and the Oklahoma Sooners have yet to really show up on the positive or negative side of anything so far, but they break that goose egg with a negative trend here. Sure, there could be some positive regression to the mean for Oklahoma in the semi-finals, and they'll need it as hefty 'dogs vs LSU.

Winning the turnover battle by multiple possessions may be the only way the Sooners get by a powerhouse like LSU later this month, and it's really only been this same Oklahoma Sooners program that qualifies in this particular role. But history does have a way of repeating itself, and given that the Sooners have forced a grand total of one turnover in their two semi-finals defeats the past two years, turning over LSU this season won't be easy.

Giveaways Per Game

2019: LSU: 0.9; Ohio State: 1.1; Clemson: 1.2; Oklahoma: 1.5

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 0.9; Clemson: 1.3; Notre Dame: 1.2; Oklahoma: 1.0
2017: Clemson: 1.2; Oklahoma: 0.9; Georgia: 1.0; Alabama: 0.5
2016: Alabama: 1.5; Clemson: 2.0; Ohio State: 0.8; Washington: 0.9
2015: Clemson: 1.9; Alabama: 1.4; Michigan State: 0.9; Oklahoma: 1.3
2014: Alabama: 1.4; Oregon: 0.6; Florida State: 2.2; Ohio State: 1.5

Point #1: Team with the worst Giveaway per game margin has made the Title game in three of the past four years

Positive for: Oklahoma

Ended the last section with the first negative for Oklahoma, so how about a “positive” for the Sooners here. They come into the 2019 CFB Playoff with the most giveaways per game on average of the four teams, and oddly enough that's done well for “teams” in the past.

I put teams in quotations because it's actually been just one program who's accounted for all the success these teams that are loosest with the football have had in the Playoff – Clemson. So there you go Dabo Swinney, a positive for your 2019 team crew in that you enter the playoff for the first time you've been involved in it without the worst giveaway per game margin (or tied) of everyone involved.

But it's hard to think that this is nothing more then dumb luck at times, especially with Clemson accounting for all of those Title game appearances. The Tigers have been a dominant force in the college football landscape for years now, and they have shown they can overcome their mistakes time and time again. Not so sure Oklahoma is as capable to do so, but a historical positive is a historical positive right?

Point #2: Three out of the five Playoffs have seen the team with the lowest Giveaway margin make it to the Title game; However, only one team with a sub-1.0 margin has won it all – 2017 Alabama

Positive for: LSU
Negative for: LSU

Based on that historical fact, LSU fans may be able to have a Happy New Year, but will feel already done with 2020 by the middle of January.

Protecting the football is always one of the best paths for success for any team, and there is nobody better at it in this year's playoff then the LSU Tigers. But whether or not it becomes the pressure of the moment in the Title game, along with being up against another phenomenal team, going the distance rarely seems to happen for the squads that rank the best here.

The 2017 Alabama team was the only one to take it the distance in that regard, and if you remember that 2017 title game, there were some extenuating circumstances. For one, the Tide went up against a familiar conference foe in Georgia, one that was beating them for essentially the entire game before crumbling late.

A LSU foe in this year's title game could end up falling to a similar fate, but Ohio State and Clemson both have guys on their roster who have felt the CFB Playoff pressure before. What that means (if anything) is hard to quantify, but it never hurts to have that knowledge floating around in the back of your mind.

Penalties Per Game

2019: LSU: 6.2; Ohio State: 5.6; Clemson: 5.5; Oklahoma: 6.8

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 5.5; Clemson: 5.2; Notre Dame: 5.0; Oklahoma: 6.1
2017: Clemson: 5.1; Oklahoma: 6.2; Georgia: 6.7; Alabama: 5.5
2016: Alabama: 5.4; Clemson: 6.7; Ohio State: 6.2; Washington: 5.4
2015: Clemson: 5.8; Alabama: 6.6; Michigan State: 5.3; Oklahoma: 6.2
2014: Alabama: 5.0; Oregon: 8.1; Florida State: 6.6; Ohio State: 5.8

Point #1: The team with the fewest penalties per game has NEVER won the national title

Negative for: Clemson

Again, we've got past results that seem counter-intuitive to what you would believe would happen, as staying disciplined on the football field is always key to success. But this is another case where regression to the mean could be playing out here, especially on such a high profile stage, as these CFB Playoff teams that enter the tournament with the fewest amount of penalties per game just can't translate it into success.

In fact, where there has been a clear cut leader in that regard – every year but 2016 when Alabama and Washington were tied – those teams haven't even made it through to the title game. Turns out that's another negative for Dabo Swinney's Clemson team this year, as I know now that I for sure won't be getting any Christmas cards from him or fans of his program this year.

Penalty Yards Per Game

2019: LSU: 59.5; Ohio State: 53.5; Clemson: 43.6; Oklahoma: 74.1

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 48.5; Clemson: 45.6; Notre Dame: 45.5; Oklahoma: 61.5
2017: Clemson: 45.8; Oklahoma: 61.8; Georgia: 58.8; Alabama: 46.6
2016: Alabama: 41.8; Clemson: 59.2; Ohio State: 48.8; Washington: 46.1
2015: Clemson: 47.7; Alabama: 59.6; Michigan State: 43.6; Oklahoma: 61.2
2014: Alabama: 39.7; Oregon: 74.9; Florida State: 51.2; Ohio State: 50.5

Point #1: The team with the fewest penalty yards per game has NEVER won the national title

Negative for: Clemson

This statement was close to ending last year, but it's another relative anomaly when you really think about it. But again, it probably goes back to the whole regression to the mean idea, and that on the biggest stage, those little things said teams may have gotten away with more often then not every Saturday become magnified and exposed.

I'm sure Dabo Swinney and his wonderful use of various rhetoric techniques will be working over the officials every chance he gets, but the history doesn't lie here. After all, he always argues that nobody pays enough attention to the ACC and maybe he's right. Maybe that includes the officials as well who have arguably let his team get away with more then they should throughout the year.

Point #2: EVERY national champion has had between 45.6 and 59.6 penalty yards per game

Positive for: LSU and Ohio State
Negative for: Clemson and Oklahoma

Probably nothing more then a statistical anomaly or looking too much into the numbers, but when that range has been perfect in determining the eventual national champion, I'm not sure you can ignore it. Considering that this is a positive for the top two teams in this year' playoff, it's got to be considered.

Final Tally

Positives For: LSU (4); Ohio State (3); Clemson (1); Oklahoma (2)
Negatives For: LSU (1, with 1 more likely); Ohio State (2); Clemson (6); Oklahoma (2)

I know that there are plenty of ways to pick apart this piece, especially if you like a particular team already.

Knocks against it are sample size, last year's teams have nothing to do with this year's, and even you could view it as confirmation bias in some cases. But regarding the latter, I would like to say that I did not know what to expect to find when backtracking these numbers, so I don't believe there was anything I was looking to confirm going into it. Again, if you find this information valuable great, if not, that's just as good.

But after this trek back through history, the picture does seem somewhat clear in how to bet this year's playoff at least in terms of the futures market. After all, the straight up winner in all 15 CFB Playoff games we've had in history are 12-3 ATS. So pick the outright winner correct and 80% of the time the spread won't matter. Especially when the three point spread losses have come by 3.5 points (2018 semi between Alabama and Oklahoma), 0.5 points (2017 title game between Alabama and Georgia), and 1.5 points (2015 title game between Alabama and Clemson).

The two teams with more historical positives then negatives from these pieces are #1 LSU and #2 Ohio State. To me, those will be your two combatants in the national title game, and with futures prices in the +150 and +225 respectively, you take both and as long as that's the matchup, you'll come out ahead.

And given that if you've followed along with my “Upset Alerts” pieces all year long, you'll know how long my stubborn ass thought it was best to go against Ohio State week after week, there is some pain in saying this, but it is the Ohio State Buckeyes who are my pick to win it all.

Ohio State outperformed market expectations all year long – much to my chagrin – and getting bumped from #1 to #2 in the final rankings - for really doing nothing wrong other then having a slow start in the Big 10 Championship - has to be all the extra motivation they really need to make a title run.

Hopefully they ride that wave of motivation and many of the historical angles I've laid out to a title this year, beating the LSU Tigers 35-31 to win it all.

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:38 AM

201BUFFALO -202 CHARLOTTE
BUFFALO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

203KENT ST -204 UTAH ST
UTAH ST is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.

207C MICHIGAN -208 SAN DIEGO ST
C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in the current season.

211SMU -212 FLA ATLANTIC
SMU is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after 2 conference games in the last 3 seasons.

215WASHINGTON -216 BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after going under the total over the last 2 seasons.

217UAB -218 APPALACHIAN ST
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in the current season.

219MARSHALL -220 UCF
UCF is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing <=14 pts. over the last 2 seasons.

221BYU -222 HAWAII
HAWAII is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

223MIAMI -224 LOUISIANA TECH
MIAMI is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.

225PITTSBURGH -226 E MICHIGAN
PITTSBURGH is 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

227N CAROLINA -228 TEMPLE
N CAROLINA is 12-33 ATS (-24.3 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

229MICHIGAN ST -230 WAKE FOREST
MICHIGAN ST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

231OKLAHOMA ST -232 TEXAS A&M
TEXAS A&M is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

233USC -234 IOWA
IOWA is 60-30 ATS (27 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

235WASHINGTON ST -236 AIR FORCE
AIR FORCE is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

237IOWA ST -238 NOTRE DAME
NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

239MEMPHIS -240 PENN ST
PENN ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

241OKLAHOMA -242 LSU
LSU is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game in the current season.

243CLEMSON -244 OHIO ST
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

243CLEMSON -244 OHIO ST
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

245W MICHIGAN -246 W KENTUCKY
W KENTUCKY is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) in road games vs. good offenses (>425 TYG) since 1992.

249ILLINOIS -250 CALIFORNIA
ILLINOIS are 27-13 Under (12.7 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

251VIRGINIA -252 FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

255FLORIDA ST -256 ARIZONA ST
FLORIDA ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when the total is 49.5-56 in the last 3 seasons.

261TEXAS -262 UTAH
TEXAS are 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

263MICHIGAN -264 ALABAMA
ALABAMA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games since 1992.

267WISCONSIN -268 OREGON
OREGON is 20-3 ATS (16.7 Units) in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

269BAYLOR -270 GEORGIA
GEORGIA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after an ATS loss over the last 2 seasons.

269BAYLOR -270 GEORGIA
BAYLOR is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

271BOSTON COLLEGE -272 CINCINNATI
BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5-10 over the last 2 seasons.

275OHIO U -276 NEVADA
NEVADA is 43-26 ATS (14.4 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

277TULANE -278 SOUTHERN MISS
TULANE is 35-65 ATS (-36.5 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.

279MIAMI OHIO -280 LA LAFAYETTE
MIAMI OHIO is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

281MISSISSIPPI ST -282 LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.

285KENTUCKY -286 VIRGINIA TECH
KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

287TENNESSEE -288 INDIANA
TENNESSEE is 14-1 ATS (12.9 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:51 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, December 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (7 - 5) vs. CHARLOTTE (7 - 5) - 12/20/2019, 2:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BUFFALO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (6 - 6) vs. UTAH ST (7 - 5) - 12/20/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 21

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C MICHIGAN (8 - 5) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 2:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LIBERTY (7 - 5) vs. GA SOUTHERN (7 - 5) - 12/21/2019, 2:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LIBERTY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SMU (10 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (10 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 3:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA INTERNATIONAL (6 - 6) vs. ARKANSAS ST (7 - 5) - 12/21/2019, 5:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (12 - 1) - 12/21/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 154-112 ATS (+30.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 154-112 ATS (+30.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 88-55 ATS (+27.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-68 ATS (+21.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UAB (9 - 4) vs. APPALACHIAN ST (12 - 1) - 12/21/2019, 9:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
UAB is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 23

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MARSHALL (8 - 4) vs. UCF (9 - 3) - 12/23/2019, 2:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.
MARSHALL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, December 24

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BYU (7 - 5) at HAWAII (9 - 5) - 12/24/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
HAWAII is 90-119 ATS (-40.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
HAWAII is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (6 - 6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (9 - 3) - 12/26/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) vs. E MICHIGAN (6 - 6) - 12/26/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N CAROLINA (6 - 6) vs. TEMPLE (8 - 4) - 12/27/2019, 12:00:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (6 - 6) vs. WAKE FOREST (8 - 4) - 12/27/2019, 3:20:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WAKE FOREST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA ST (8 - 4) vs. TEXAS A&M (7 - 5) - 12/27/2019, 6:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC (8 - 4) vs. IOWA (9 - 3) - 12/27/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
USC is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON ST (6 - 6) vs. AIR FORCE (10 - 2) - 12/27/2019, 10:15:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IOWA ST (7 - 5) vs. NOTRE DAME (10 - 2) - 12/28/2019, 12:00:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (12 - 1) vs. PENN ST (10 - 2) - 12/28/2019, 12:00:00 P
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA (12 - 1) vs. LSU (13 - 0) - 12/28/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEMSON (13 - 0) vs. OHIO ST (13 - 0) - 12/28/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-151 ATS (+32.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-151 ATS (+32.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 180-136 ATS (+30.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OHIO ST is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEMSON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. W KENTUCKY (8 - 4) - 12/30/2019, 12:30:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ILLINOIS (6 - 6) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 5) - 12/30/2019, 4:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 140-177 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 140-177 ATS (-54.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA (9 - 4) vs. FLORIDA (10 - 2) - 12/30/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
FLORIDA is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSISSIPPI ST (6 - 6) vs. LOUISVILLE (7 - 5) - 12/30/2019, 4:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, December 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA ST (6 - 6) vs. ARIZONA ST (7 - 5) - 12/31/2019, 2:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS ST (8 - 4) vs. NAVY (9 - 2) - 12/31/2019, 3:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 181-134 ATS (+33.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NAVY is 81-46 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 178-141 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 178-141 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GEORGIA ST (7 - 5) vs. WYOMING (7 - 5) - 12/31/2019, 4:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS (7 - 5) vs. UTAH (11 - 2) - 12/31/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) on a neutral field where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1992.
UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
UTAH is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
UTAH is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
UTAH is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENTUCKY (7 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (8 - 4) - 12/31/2019, 12:00:00 P
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, January 1

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MICHIGAN (9 - 3) vs. ALABAMA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2020, 1:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (10 - 2) vs. AUBURN (9 - 3) - 1/1/2020, 1:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WISCONSIN (10 - 3) vs. OREGON (11 - 2) - 1/1/2020, 5:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 48-24 ATS (+21.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OREGON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
OREGON is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WISCONSIN is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
WISCONSIN is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BAYLOR (11 - 2) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2020, 8:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, January 2

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BOSTON COLLEGE (6 - 6) vs. CINCINNATI (10 - 3) - 1/2/2020, 3:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (7 - 5) vs. INDIANA (8 - 4) - 1/2/2020, 7:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANA is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, January 3

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OHIO U (6 - 6) vs. NEVADA (7 - 5) - 1/3/2020, 3:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, January 4

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TULANE (6 - 6) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (7 - 5) - 1/4/2020, 11:30:00 A
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, January 6

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MIAMI OHIO (8 - 5) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (10 - 3) - 1/6/2020, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:54 AM

NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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Friday, December 20

Buffalo @ Charlotte
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Utah State @ Kent State
Utah State
Utah State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games
Kent State
Kent State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kent State's last 6 games

Saturday, December 21

Central Michigan @ San Diego State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Central Michigan is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games
San Diego State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Liberty @ Georgia Southern
Liberty
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Liberty's last 6 games
Liberty is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Southern Methodist @ Florida Atlantic
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Southern Methodist's last 12 games
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Florida International @ Arkansas State
Florida International
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida International's last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida International's last 18 games
Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 5 games when playing Florida International
Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Boise State @ Washington
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
Washington
Washington is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games

Appalachian State @ Alabama-Birmingham
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama-Birmingham is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 6 games

Monday, December 23

Central Florida @ Marshall
Central Florida
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Central Florida is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
Marshall
Marshall is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Marshall's last 15 games

Tuesday, December 24

Brigham Young @ Hawaii
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Brigham Young is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Hawaii
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games at home
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami-FL
No trends to report

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

Monday, December 30

Western Kentucky @ Western Michigan
Western Kentucky
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Western Michigan
Western Michigan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Western Michigan is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

California @ Illinois
California
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of California's last 21 games
Illinois
Illinois is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Mississippi State @ Louisville
Mississippi State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 7 games
Louisville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games

Florida @ Virginia
Florida
Florida is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia's last 5 games
Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Tuesday, December 31

Virginia Tech @ Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Kentucky
Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Florida State @ Arizona State
Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida State's last 9 games
Florida State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games
Arizona State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Navy @ Kansas State
Navy
Navy is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Navy is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games
Kansas State
Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games

Georgia State @ Wyoming
Georgia State
Georgia State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Georgia State is 7-12-4 ATS in its last 23 games
Wyoming
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wyoming's last 5 games
Wyoming is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games

Utah @ Texas
Utah
Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Texas
Texas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Texas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Wednesday, January 1

Michigan @ Alabama
Michigan
Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama
Alabama is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

Minnesota @ Auburn
Minnesota
Minnesota is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games
Auburn is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

Oregon @ Wisconsin
Oregon
Oregon is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games

Georgia @ Baylor
Georgia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Georgia's last 8 games
Georgia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baylor
Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baylor is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

Thursday, January 2

Boston College @ Cincinnati
Boston College
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston College's last 7 games
Boston College is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

Indiana @ Tennessee
Indiana
Indiana is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Friday, January 3

Ohio @ Nevada
Ohio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio's last 7 games
Ohio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Nevada
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada's last 6 games
Nevada is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

Saturday, January 4

Southern Miss @ Tulane
Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 5 games
Southern Miss is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulane's last 7 games when playing Southern Miss
Tulane is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

Monday, January 6

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Miami-OH
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 8 games
Miami-OH
Miami-OH is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-OH's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:54 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Dec 20- Bahamas Bowl
C-USA went 3-2 vs MAC in this game last five years, with average total of 66.2. Buffalo is 0-3 in bowls, giving up average of 43 ppg- this is first time Bulls went to consecutive bowls. Buffalo won five of its last six games overall after a 2-4 start; they’re 16-6-1 ATS in last 23 games as a favorite, 5-3 TY. Seven of their last nine games went over. Leipold is 30-32 in five years at Buffalo; he was 109-6 as a D-III coach. Charlotte gets to its first bowl in its fifth year of I-A ball; 49ers won their last five games after a 2-5 start, scoring 32.6 ppg- they’re 4-4 ATS as an underdog TV, covering lat three tries. Charlotte ran ball for 497 yards in last two games; they’ve got a soph QB. Three of their last four games went under.

Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
Kent State is in its 3rd bowl, first since 2012; they’re 6-6 TY after being 12-47 previous five years. Golden Flashes scored 35 ppg in winning their last three games; they’ve covered six of eight games as an underdog TY. Three of their last four games went over. Utah State is in 3rd straight bowl, 6th in last seven years; they went 3-2 in last five bowls. Aggies won three of last four games after a 4-4 start; junior QB Love is bolting school early for NFL- this is his 32nd/last college start. USU is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite, 4-2 TY; they’re 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with single digit spread. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Favorites won/covered this bowl four of last five years, with average total of 67.2.

Dec 21- New Mexico Bowl
San Diego State went 9-3 despite scoring 17 or less points in half their games- they beat a I-AA team 6-0, were 6-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. 10 of their 11 games stayed under. Aztecs lost bowls 42-35/27-0 last two years; they’ve got senior QB making 19th start. Central Michigan went 1-11 LY, made bowl TY in McElwain’s first year at CMU. Chippewas are in 5th bowl in six years but they lost last four bowls, scoring 12.7 ppg in last three. CMU won six of last eight games, losing MAC title game 26-21; they’re 4-2-1 ATS as an underdog TY. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Underdogs covered five of last seven New Mexico Bowls; Mountain West team is 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total of 55.2.

Cure Bowl, Orlando
Liberty is in its first bowl in their 2nd year of I-A ball; Hugh Freeze is 3-1 in bowls, going 3-0 when he coached at Ole Miss. Flames have a senior QB making his 43rd/last start; they’re 1-4 when they allow 31+ points, 6-1 when they allow less than 31. Liberty is 6-7 ATS as an underdog since going D-I. Four of their last five games went over. Georgia Southern won six of last eight games after a 2-4 start; they scored 40.7 ppg in last three games. Eagles won their only two bowls, nipping Eastern Michigan 23-21 LY- they’ve got a junior QB with 35 starts who threw for 704 yards, ran for 674 yards TY. Four of their last five games went over. Sun Belt teams split four Cure Bowls, with average total of 49.

Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL
Is it good to play a bowl on your home field? After your coach bolted to an SEC job? Owls are 3-0 in bowls, winning this game 50-3 over Akron LY, now they’re playing a home bowl for 2nd year in a row. FAU won 10 of 11 games after losing to Ohio St/UCF to open season; they’ve got a soph QB wth 23 starts. Owls covered five of last six games; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread. SMU split its last four games after an 8-0 start; they scored 28-48 points in their losses; over is 9-3 in their games TY- Mustangs are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. SMU is in its 2nd bowl in seven years; they lost 51-10 to La Tech in a bowl two years ago. Favorites covered four of first five Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 61.8.

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State has had emotional 7-5 season; their coach’s wife passed away August 19- he missed their first game. Red Wolves won four of last five games, throwing for 300+ yards in last four games; they’re 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread. FIU went 6-6 this year, after going 16-10 last two years; they’ve split four bowl games, with dogs covering three of them. Panthers are 1-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread- they did upset Miami, but then lost to Marshall. FIU allowed 200+ YR in five of its six losses; they’ve got a senior QB with 38 starts. Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games. Underdogs covered four of last five Camellia Bowls, with average total of 57.8. Sun Belt teams won this bowl three of last four years.

Las Vegas Bowl
Chris Petersen unexpectedly quit as Washington’s coach; his last game is against his old team, where he went 92-12 from 2006-13. Huskies were disappointing 7-5 TY with only two starters back on defense- they’re 0-5 in games decided by 10 or fewer points. Washington is 1-4 in bowls under Petersen, with average total of 54.2. Boise State’s bowl game LY in Dallas was cancelled because of severe weather with 5:08 left in first quarter; Broncos are 3-1 in bowls under Harsin- they upset Oregon in this game two years ago. Boise won its last six games; their only loss was 28-25 at BYU in October. Four of their last five games went under. Mountain West team won this bowl last three years; favorites are 5-3 ATS in this game last eight years, with average total in last five, 55.8.

New Orleans Bowl
UAB lost C-USA title game 49-6 to FAU two weeks ago; they’re 9-4 TY, scoring 13 or fewer points in all four losses. UAB won three of last four games; they’re 0-3 ATS as an underdog TY, after covering 13 of previous 18 tries as an underdog. Blazers are 1-2 in bowls, with favorites covering all three games. Appalachian State is 12-1, with only loss by FG to Ga Southern on Halloween; Mountaineers scored 45.8 ppg in last four games- they’re 5-4 as a double digit favorite TY. ASU won this bowl 45-13 LY; they’re 4-0 in bowls, scoring 31+ points in all four- this is their 6th year as a I-A team. Favorites won/covered last four New Orleans Bowls; Sun Belt team won this game six of last eight years. Average total in this bowl last five years, 56.2.

Dec 23- Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa
Marshall won its last seven bowl games; they won here 38-20 LY, beating the home team (South Florida). Thundering Herd also won this game in ’15. Favorites won this bowl the last four years (3-1 ATS). Average total in this bowl last four years: 37.0. Marshall won six of its last seven games overall after a 2-3 start; they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog. 2-1 TY. Central Florida is 9-3, with losses by total of 7 points; they won five of last six games, are 4-5 ATS as a double digit favorite TY. UCF allowed 35-27-34 points in their three losses. Knights lost three of last four bowl games, with average total of 66.4 in last five bowls. Three of their last four games went under total.

Dec 24- Hawai’i Bowl
BYU beat Hawai’i 49-23/30-20 last two years; BYU has a campus in Hawai’i- they’ll have fan support here, too. Cougars were held to 23 or fewer points in their five losses- they’re 7-0 scoring more than 23. Underdogs covered BYU’s last eight games. BYU won five of last six games after a 2-4 start; they won their last two bowls. Favorites covered four of BYU’s last five bowls. Hawai’i is in this bowl for third time in four years, splitting last two; Rainbows won four of last five games after a 5-4 start, losing MW title game to Boise St two weeks ago- they allowed average of 43 ppg in their last five bowls. Hawai’i is 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-1 TY. Average total in last four Hawai’i Bowls, 60.3.

Dec 26- Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Skip Holtz is 5-0 in bowls at Louisiana Tech, were underdog in last two; senior QB Smith is 3-year starter. Tech figures to have crowd support wth game in Shreveport. Bulldogs were held under 300 total yards in all three losses TY- they lost two of last three regular season games, with backup QB playing in the losses; starter came back in last game. Tech is 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Miami lost four of its last five bowls; this is Diaz’ first bowl as a HC. Canes are 6-6, losing last two games, with a loss to FIU of C-USA. Miami is 11-17 ATS in last 28 games as a favorite, 2-6 TY. ACC teams won this game the last four years; average total in last six Independence Bowls, 68.2.

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit
Eastern Michigan lost bowls in ’16, ’18 by total of six points but they covered both games; Eagles are 20-6-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog, 3-3 TY. Four of their last five games went over. Pitt lost its last four bowls, were favored in two of them; their last bowl win was here six years ago. Panthers are 7-5 TY, scoring total of 19 points in losing last two games; they’re 6-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-5 when they don’t. Pitt is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a favorite, but they’re 2-5-1 in last eight tries as a double digit fave. Five of their last six games stayed under total.. Underdogs are 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total 51.2. MAC teams lost last three appearances here, scoring 19.3 ppg. Game is indoors, so no weather worries.

Dec. 27- Military Bowl, Annapolis
Temple is 21-7 ATS in last 28 games as an underdog, 5-2 TY; Owls’ coach Carey was 0-6 SU in bowls at Northern Illinois- Temple lost three of its last four bowls, losing this game 34-26 (-12) three years ago. Three of Temple’s last four games stayed under. Mack Brown went 6-6 in his return to Chapel Hill; nine of their 12 games were decided by 7 or less points, including all six losses. UNC is 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as a favorite; they lost their last three bowls, giving up 38 ppg- their last bowl win was in 2013. Tar Heels are 6-2 when they allow 25 or fewer points, 0-4 when they allow more. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six Military Bowls that didn’t involve host school Navy; average total in this bowl last five years is 60.8.

Pinstripe Bowl, Bronx
Michigan State had a 5-game losing skid after a 4-1 start, allowing 34+ points in all five losses; they’re 5-1 when they allow 17 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more. Spartans are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a favorite, 3-5 TY- they scored 10 or fewer points in five of their six losses. State split their last four bowls, scoring 42-0-42-6 points; five of their last seven games went under. Wake Forest won its last three bowls, scoring 42 ppg; they lost three of last four games (giving up 38.5 ppg) after 7-1 start. Deacons are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog, 1-1 TY. Big 14 teams won this bowl four of last five years; underdogs covered this bowl seven of last eight years, with average total of 56.2 in last six. Check the weather; NYC in December can be dicey.

Texas Bowl, Houston
Oklahoma State won four of its last five games after giving up 45 points in consecutive losses to Texas Tech/Baylor in October; Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog, 2-1 TY. Four of their last five games went under the total. OSU won its last three bowls, scoring 38-30-38 points; they covered four of last five bowls. Texas A&M is 7-5, losing last two games, to Georgia/LSU- they lost 50-7 to LSU. Aggies are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. A&M lost three of last four bowls, despite scoring 52-52 points in last two. Jimbo Fisher is 6-2 SU in bowls. A&M’s last three games went under. Big X teams are 5-2 SU in last seven Texas Bowls, beating SEC teams the last three years, with average total of 58.5 in last six.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego
USC won five of its last six games after a 3-3 start, scoring 31-41-52 points in last three games, which saved coach Helton’s job- freshman QB Slovis threw for 466 ypg in those games. USC allowed 26+ points in four of last five games; they’re 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Trojans are 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 45+ points in the wins; they didn’t go bowling LY. Iowa won five of its last six games, giving up 17.7 ppg in winning last three; they’re 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite, 5-4 TY. Hawkeyes won their last two bowls, after losing previous five. Underdogs covered this game six of last seven games; Big 14 teams won this game last four years. Average total in last four Holiday Bowls, 45.8.

Cheez-It Bowl, Phoenix
Air Force won its last seven games since a 34-25 loss to Navy; Falcons actually threw for 327 yards at New Mexico. Flyboys are 12-18 ATS in last 30 games as a favorite, 5-4 TY. Four of their last five games went under. Falcons are in its first bowl in three years; they lost three of last five bowls, with average total of 69.8. Mike Leach is 7-7 in bowls, 2-3 at Washington State, with average total of 54. Coogs scored only 19.3 ppg in last four bowls. Wazzu was 3-0 TY, then blew a 49-17 third quarter lead, lost 67-63 at home to UCLA and their season fell apart. Coogs lost six of last nine games, scoring 41+ points in the wins; four of their last five games went over. Underdogs covered this bowl five of last seven years, with average total of 48.7 in last six.

Dec 28- Camping World Bowl, Orlando
Iowa State is 7-5, with three losses by 1 or 2 points, losing by point at both Baylor/Oklahoma. Under Campbell, Cyclones are 17-8-1 ATS as an underdog, 2-0 TY- they were held under 100 RY in four of their five losses. Cyclones are 2-3 in last five bowls, with both wins by a point; underdogs were 4-0 ATS in those games. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Notre Dame won its last five games since a 45-14 loss at Michigan; they’re +8 in turnovers their last three games. Irish covered their last five games as a single digit favorite, 2-0 TY. ND won three of last five bowls; this is first time in five years the Irish are favored in a bowl. Favorites won/covered this bowl the last three years; average total in this game the last five years: 54.2.

Cotton Bowl, Arlington, TX
Memphis won its last seven games, had a great 12-1 year, but their coach already bolted to Florida State- they beat Ole Miss 15-10 in only Power 5 game TY. Tigers scored 34+ points in 10 of their last 12 games. Tigers lost their last four bowls, losing last two by total of four points; they’re 18-12-2 ATS in last 32 games as an underdog, 0-0 TY. Penn State split its last four games after an 8-0 start, giving up 430.8 ypg, including 383 to Rutgers; PSU is 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a single digit favorite, 3-2 TY. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nittany Lions lost three of last four bowls; average total in their last five bowls: 63.4. Favorites covered Cotton Bowl six of last eight years, with average total of 35.5 last four years.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta
Oklahoma is 58-9 SU last five years, but 1-4 in bowls, giving up 37+ points in all four losses; they were a double digit favorite in every game TY, until now. OU’s best pass rusher got suspended; his backup is hurt. Since 2012, Sooners are 5-2 ATS as an underdog; over last 11 years, they’re 3-1 as a double digit dog. Sooners’ last four games went under. LSU is 13-0, with two wins by less than 14 points; 45-38 (-6) over Texas, 46-41 (+5.5) over Alabama; they never beat Crimson Tide when Hurts played there. Burrow won Heisman; there have been distractions. Tigers are 5-3-1 ATS as a double digit favorite TY. LSU won/covered three of its last four bowls, scoring 35.5 ppg. Underdogs won three of last four Fiesta Bowls SU; average total in last five, 61.2.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Clemson won national title two of last three years, beating Ohio State 31-0 in semis three years ago (Buckeyes’ only loss in last five bowls); Tigers won four of last five bowls, scoring 30+ in all four wins. Clemson is 13-0 TY, covering seven of eight games after a 21-20 escape over UNC, when Tar Heels went for 2-point conversion with 1:17 left, instead of tying PAT. Tigers were favored by 24+ points 12 times TY, by 16 in the other game; they threw ball for 344.8 ypg in last four games. Buckeyes won every game TY by 11+ points, with closest win 28-17 over Penn State. Over last 11 years, Ohio State is 10-1 ATS when getting points. Favorites won/covered three of last four Fiesta Bowls; average total in last five, 51.

Dec 30 First Responder Bowl- Dallas
Western Kentucky won its last three games, scoring 34.7 ppg; Hilltoppers are 5-9 ATS in last 14 games as a favorite, 2-1 TY. WKU is -10 in turnovers in its losses, +5 in their wins. Four of their last five games went over the total. WKU won three of its last four bowls, with average total 69.6 in last five. Western Michigan won three of its last four home games after a 4-4 start; they’re they’re 7-1 when they score 31+ points, 0-4 when they don’t. Broncos lost four of last five bowls, scoring 16-18 points in losing last two. WMU is 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog, 1-3 TY. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Favorites covered this bowl four of last five times, with average total of 59.8- this bowl was cancelled LY (weather).

Music City Bowl, Nashville
Mississippi State won three of its last four games after a 3-5 start; they’re 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a single digit favorite, 2-2 TY. State is 6-2 when it res ball for 200+ TY, 0-4 when they don’t. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Bulldogs won three of last four bowls, last three of which were all decided by 5 or fewer points- average total in their last five bowls: 60.6. Louisville is 7-0 when it scores 28+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t; they allowed 449+ TY in five of last seven games, lost three of their last four bowls, scoring average of 19.3 ppg. Six of their last eight games overall went over. Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog, 3-4 TY. Favorites covered this bowl five of last seven years, with average total of 58.6 the last five years.

Redbox Bowl, Santa Clara
Illinois lost its last two games, scoring 10-10 points; they’re in bowl for first time in five years. Illini covered six of seven games as an underdog TY- they’re 6-1 when they gain 300+ TY, 0-5 when they don’t. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Favorites covered four of Illinois’ last five bowl games. California won three of its last four games (over 3-1) after a 4-4 start; they’re 1-7-1 ATS in last nine games as a favorite, 0-3 TY. Cal is 0-5 when it scores 17 or fewer points, 7-0 when they score more. Three of their last four games went over. Cal is bowling in consecutive years for first time in a decade; they lost three of last four bowls, with average total of 49.2 in last five. Underdogs covered this bowl the last four years; average total last five years is 53.6.

Orange Bowl, Miami
Florida won its last three games, scoring 39.7 ppg, throwing for 378.7 ypg; they covered seven of last eight as a double digit favorite, 3-0 TY. Four of their last six games went over. Junior QB Trask stepped in for injured starter Franks, threw 24 TD’s TY. Gators won three of last four bowls, with average total of 48.2 in last five. Mullen is 6-2 in bowls in his career. Virginia won four of its last five games, losing ACC title game 62-17 to Clemson; Cavaliers allowed 337.7 passing yards/game in last three games. Cavaliers lost three of last four bowls- they gave up 31+ points in four of last five. Under Mendenhall, Virginia is 4-7 ATS as a double digit underdog. Underdogs covered six of last eight Orange Bowls; average total in last five Orange Bowls is 68.7.

Dec 31- Belk Bowl, Charlotte
Virginia Tech won three of last four games, covered five of last six; they’re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a single digit favorite, 2-3 TY. Four of their last five games went under total. Hokies lost their last two bowls; their last bowl win was here, three years ago. Average total in their last five bowls: 70.8. Kentucky won four of last six DI games, running ball for 918 yards in last two; Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a single digit underdog, 2-2 TY- their last three games went over the total. Wildcats lost four of its last five bowls, with last two decided by total of four points. Favorites won seven of last eight Belk Bowls (6-1-1 vs spread), with average total of 60.5 in last six; ACC teams are 5-3 SU in last eight Belk Bowls.

Sun Bowl, El Paso
Florida State scored 31+ points in all six of its wins; they’re 0-5 scoring less than 31. Seminoles are 3-8-1 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog, 1-2-1 TY. FSU won three of last five bowls, scoring 33-42 points in last two- they didn’t go to a bowl LY, part of why they’ll have a new coach next year.. Six of their last eight games went under the total. Arizona State went 7-5 TY despite a 4-game skid near end of year; under Edwards, Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS as a single digit favorite. Four of their last five games went over. ASU plays a true freshman QB; they lost last three bowls and four of last five, giving up 38.8 ppg. Favorites won last five Sun Bowls, going 2-2-1 ATS, wth an average total of 51.8.

Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Navy won four of its last five bowls, covering last two tries when favored, scoring 44-45-49 points in last three. Middies won eight of their last nine games, with loss to Notre Dame; they ran ball for 375 yards in seven of their last eight games- they’re 22-13 ATS in last 35 games as a favorite, 6-1 TY. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Kansas State went 5-4 in Big X this year, they’re 5-1 ATS as a single digit underdog TY, after being 1-6 the previous four years. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Wildcats won last two bowls but stayed home LY; they scored 31+ points in four of last five bowls, with favorites covering four of those five games. Underdogs won four of last five Liberty Bowls SU, with average total of 63.2.

Arizona Bowl, Tucson
Wyoming lost three of last four games (scoring 15.3 ppg) after a 6-2 start; they’re 8-2 ATS in last ten games as a favorite, 4-1 TY. Wyoming completed fewer than 10 passes in eight games TY- they were held under 200 RY in last four games. Cowboys’ last six games went under the total. Wyoming won three of last five bowls, winning twice as a double digit dog; average total in their last five bowls: 51.2. Georgia State lost three of last four games after a 6-2 start; they’re 4-3 ATS as an underdog TY, after being 4-8-3 the previous two years. Panthers split their only two bowls, in ’15, ’17. Mountain West teams won three of four Arizona Bowls, three of which were decided by 6 or fewer points. Average total in those four games: 48.

Alamo Bowl, San Antonio
Utah was KO’d from national title hunt when Oregon smoked them in Pac-12 title game; whats their motivation here? Utah scored 30+ points in 10 of their 11 wins; they’re 1-2 scoring less than 30. Utes are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a single digit favorite, 3-2 TY. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Texas lost four of last seven games after a 4-1 start; Longhorns allowed 435+ TY in seven of their nine conference games. Texas is 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog, 3-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Underdogs are 3-0-2 ATS in last five Alamo Bowls; this bowl was a push the last two years. Big X team won this game three of last four years; average total in last five Alamo bowls, 67.8.

Jan 1- Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Alabama is out of national playoff for first time in six years; they’re playing with a backup QB. Crimson Tide scored 45 points at Auburn with the backup playing, turning ball over three times. Bama lost two of last three I-A games (46-41/48-45); they scored 35+ points in every game TY. Three of their last four games went over. In their last three games, Michigan threw ball for 1,055 yards, ran it for 271. Wolverines scored 38+ points in seven of their nine wins; they’re 2-3 scoring less than 38. Wolverines are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games as an underdog, 1-2 TY. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Michigan lost its last three bowls, giving up 33.3 ppg; their last bowl win was here, four years ago. Underdogs won last two Sugar Bowls; average total in last five: 45.

Outback Bowl, Tampa
Minnesota lost two of last three games after starting season 9-0; Gophers allowed less than 300 yards in their last six wins, 518/453 in their two losses- under Fleck, they’re 8-9-1 ATS as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Five of their last six games went over. Minnesota won its last three bowls, allowing 12 ppg, but they’re moving little bit up bowl ladder here; average total in their last five bowls, 39.2. Last nine times Auburn beat Alabama, they went 6-3 ATS in their bowl that year; they lost three of last five bowls, but crushed Purdue 63-14 LY. Auburn lost this bowl 34-31 to Wisconsin in ’14. Tigers are 10-12-2 ATS in last 24 games as a favorite, 4-2 TY. Four of their last five games went under. Dogs covered three of last five Outback Bowls, with average total, 48.6.

Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Wisconsin won four of its last five games, losing 34-21 to Ohio State in the Big 14 title game. Badgers scored 24+ points in their wins, 23 or less in their three losses; they’re 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a single digit favorite, 3-1 TY. Four of their last five games went over. Wisconsin won its last five bowls (average total 49); they were underdog in three of them. Oregon won 11 of last 12 games; they’re 4-12-1 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog, 1-1 TY. Four of their last five games went over. Ducks lost three of last four bowls, winning Redbox Bowl 7-6 LY; average total in their last five bowls: 61.6. Favorites are 3-2 ATS in last five Rose Bowls, last three of which were decided by 5 or fewer points or in OT. Average total in last five Rose Bowls: 78.8.

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Baylor split last four games after a 9-0 start, with both losses to Oklahoma; Bears covered seven of last nine games as an underdog, 4-0 TY. Bears are 4-2 TY in games decided by seven or fewer points. Baylor won its last three bowls, all as an underdog; dogs covered their last five bowls, with average total: 78. Georgia is 11-2 TY, but was held under 300 TY in three of last four games; they completed only 48% of passes in their last three games. Georgia is 17-7 ATS in last 24 games as a single digit favorite (2-0 TY). Seven of their last eight games stayed under the total. Dawgs lost their last two bowls; two of their last three bowls went to OT. Favorites covered three of last four Sugar Bowls; average total in this game the last five years: 55.6.

Jan 2- Birmingham Bowl
Boston College went 6-6, fired its coach, but here they are; Eagles completed only 18-40 passes for 186 yards in last two games. Last four years, BC is 14-2 ATS as a single digit underdog, 6-0 TY. Five of their las seven games went over the total. BC lost three of last four bowls (average total 58.8); their bowl LY was cancelled in first quarter due to terrible weather. Cincinnati lost twice to Memphis after a 10-1 start; Bearcats are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a favorite, 5-4 TY— their last five games went under. Cincinnati lost three of last five bowls, and allowed 34-31 points in the wins; they split last four bowls with ACC teams. AAC teams are 2-3 SU in this bowl last five years, with average total, 63.4. Favorites covered three of the five games.

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
First bowl in three years for Indiana squad that lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win was in 1991. Hoosiers lost two of last three games overall after a 7-2 start; they gave up 80 points, 1,042 TY in their last two games. Indiana is 3-2 ATS as an underdog TY. Four of their last six games went over. Tennessee won its last five games after a 2-5 start, giving up 14.2 ppg during their run; Vols are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games as a favorite, 2-3 TY. Six of their last seven games went under. First bowl in three years for Tennessee squad that won its last three bowls, scoring 42.7 ppg. Favorites covered four of last five Gator Bowls, wth average total, 57.6. SEC teams won three of last four visits to this bowl; Tennessee won this game five years ago.

Jan 3- Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise
Ohio scored 66-52 points in winning its last two games to get to 6-6; they’re 1-4 when they score less than 34 points. Bobcats ran ball for average of 265.8 ypg the last six games- they’re 2-6 ATS this year as a favorite. Bobcats’ last three games went over. Ohio won its last two bowls by combined 68-6; favorites covered four of their last five bowls. Nevada won three of last four games; they were held to 10 or fewer points in 4 of their 5 losses. Wolf Pack four of last five bowls, winning last two by total of 8 points. MAC lost three of last four visits to this bowl; average total in last five Potato Bowls: 61.

Jan 4- Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth
First time in five years there isn’t an academy team in this game; these teams haven’t met since 2010. Southern Miss was held to 10-17 points in losing last two games, after a 7-3 start. Eagles are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Their last five games stayed under. USM is 2-3 in last five bowls (favorites 4-1 ATS). Tulane lost five of last six games after a 5-1 start; Green Wave covered six of seven games as a favorite TY- their last three games went under. Tulane won three of its last four bowls, beating ULL 41-24 LY in their first bowl in five years. Average total in this bowl last five years: 84.8.

Jan 6- LendingTree Bowl, Mobile, AL
Louisiana won 10 of its last 12 games after an opening loss to Miss State; ULL ran ball for 225+ yards in six of last seven games- they lost Sun Belt title game at App State. Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-2 ATS this year laying double digits; they won 45-25 at Ohio U of MAC TY. ULL lost their last two bowls, after winning first four. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Miami (OH) won six of its last seven games after a 2-4 start; they’re 0-4 ATS this year as a double digit underdog. Five of their last six games went under. Miami is bowling for first time in three years, 2nd time in nine years; they lost three of last five bowls. Underdogs won this bowl three of last four years; average total the last five years: 70.2.

**Udog** · 12-10-2019, 11:55 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

Friday, December 20

Buffalo @ Charlotte

Game 201-202
December 20, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
84.358
Charlotte
75.296
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 9
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-6 1/2); Over

Utah State @ Kent State

Game 203-204
December 20, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
83.128
Kent State
74.394
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah State
by 9
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah State
by 6
66
Dunkel Pick:
Utah State
(-6); Over

Saturday, December 21

NC A&T @ Alcorn State

Game 205-206
December 21, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC A&T
65.338
Alcorn State
59.696
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC A&T
by 5 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC A&T
by 2 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC A&T
(-2 1/2); Over

Central Michigan @ San Diego St

Game 207-208
December 21, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
80.133
San Diego St
81.038
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 1
25
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+3 1/2); Under

Liberty @ Georgia Southern

Game 209-210
December 21, 2019 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Liberty
77.183
Georgia Southern
79.381
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 5
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(+5); Under

SMU @ Florida Atlantic

Game 211-212
December 21, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
90.043
Florida Atlantic
90.344
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
Even
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 3
70
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+3); Over

FIU @ Arkansas St

Game 213-214
December 21, 2019 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
FIU
74.807
Arkansas St
73.181
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 1 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 3
63
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+3); Over

Boise State @ Washington

Game 215-216
December 21, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boise State
97.058
Washington
97.282
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(+3 1/2); Under

Appalachian St @ UAB

Game 217-218
December 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
92.028
UAB
78.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 14
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 17
48
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(+17); Under

Montana St @ North Dakota St

Game 1701-1702
December 21, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana St
83.609
North Dakota St
90.554
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Dakota St
by 7
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Dakota St
by 18 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montana St
(+18 1/2); Over

Weber St @ James Madison

Game 1703-1704
December 21, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Weber St
80.630
James Madison
94.423
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
James Madison
by 14
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
James Madison
by 16 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Weber St
(+16 1/2); Over

Monday, December 23

Central Florida @ Marshall

Game 219-220
December 23, 2019 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
94.181
Marshall
79.940
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 14
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 17 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(+17 1/2); Over

Tuesday, December 24

Hawaii @ Brigham Young

Game 221-222
December 24, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hawaii
82.079
Brigham Young
80.746
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hawaii
by 1 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Hawaii
(+2); Over

Thursday, December 26

Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL

Game 224-223
December 26, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
80.102
Miami-FL
83.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
50
Dunkel Pick:
Louisiana Tech
(+6); Under

Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan

Game 225-226
December 26, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
82.580
Eastern Michigan
74.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 11
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+11); Under

Friday, December 27

North Carolina @ Temple

Game 227-228
December 27, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
89.652
Temple
88.992
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 1
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 5
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Temple
(+5); Over

Michigan State @ Wake Forest

Game 229-230
December 27, 2019 @ 3:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
85.833
Wake Forest
84.905
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 1
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 4 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(+4 1/2); Over

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M

Game 231-232
December 27, 2019 @ 6:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma State
91.825
Texas A&M
102.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 11
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas A&M
by 7
54
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(-7); Under

USC @ Iowa

Game 233-234
December 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
97.554
Iowa
101.711
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa
by 4
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa
(-2); Under

Air Force @ Washington St

Game 235-236
December 27, 2019 @ 10:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
91.157
Washington St
90.934
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington St
Even
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 3
67 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington St
(+3); Over

Saturday, December 28

Notre Dame @ Iowa State

Game 237-238
December 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Notre Dame
100.685
Iowa State
100.427
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa State
Even
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(+3 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Penn State

Game 239-240
December 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
98.245
Penn State
105.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 6 1/2
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Penn State
(-6 1/2); Under

Oklahoma @ LSU

Game 241-242
December 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma
105.498
LSU
123.014
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 17 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 13 1/2
76
Dunkel Pick:
LSU
(-13 1/2); Under

Clemson @ Ohio State

Game 243-244
December 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
127.867
Ohio State
123.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 5
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(-2); Over

Monday, December 30

Western Kentucky @ Western Michigan

Game 245-246
December 30, 2019 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
84.186
Western Michigan
77.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 3
52
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-3); Over

Mississippi St @ Louisville

Game 281-282
December 30, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi St
92.348
Louisville
84.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 7 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 4
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-4); Over

California @ Illinois

Game 249-250
December 30, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
California
91.914
Illinois
82.798
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 9
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 6 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
California
(-6 1/2); Under

Florida @ Virginia

Game 251-252
December 30, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
109.993
Virginia
93.367
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 16 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 14
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(-14); Under

Tuesday, December 31

Virginia Tech @ Kentucky

Game 285-286
December 31, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia Tech
99.636
Kentucky
94.294
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 5 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(-2 1/2); Over

Arizona State @ Florida State

Game 255-256
December 31, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
89.973
Florida State
88.247
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona State
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona State
by 4 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Florida State
(+4 1/2); Over

Navy @ Kansas State

Game 257-258
December 31, 2019 @ 3:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Navy
94.323
Kansas State
98.647
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 4 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas State
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Navy
(+2 1/2); Over

Wyoming @ Georgia State

Game 259-260
December 31, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wyoming
83.113
Georgia State
70.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 12 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wyoming
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
Wyoming
(-7); Under

Utah @ Texas

Game 261-262
December 31, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
107.989
Texas
97.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 10
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 7
55
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-7); Under

Wednesday, January 1

Michigan @ Alabama

Game 263-264
January 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan
105.876
Alabama
114.983
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 9
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 7
59
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-7); Under

Minnesota @ Auburn

Game 265-266
January 1, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
98.560
Auburn
109.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 10 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 7
53
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(-7); Under

Wisconsin @ Oregon

Game 267-268
January 1, 2020 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
107.920
Oregon
108.360
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 2 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Oregon
(+2 1/2); Over

Baylor @ Georgia

Game 269-270
January 1, 2020 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
106.027
Georgia
109.958
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
by 4
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Baylor
(+7); Over

Thursday January 2

Boston College @ Cincinnati

Game 271-272
January 2, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston College
84.937
Cincinnati
93.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 8 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 7
55
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-7); Over

Indiana @ Tennessee

Game 287-288
January 2, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
91.498
Tennessee
95.603
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-1 1/2); Under

Friday, January 3

Ohio @ Nevada

Game 275-276
January 3, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio
84.467
Nevada
73.128
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 11 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 7 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(-7 1/2); Over

Saturday, January 4

Southern Miss @ Tulane

Game 277-278
January 4, 2020 @ 11:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
77.860
Tulane
81.636
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulane
by 4
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulane
by 7 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+7 1/2); Under

Monday, January 6

LA-Lafayette @ Miami of Ohio

Game 279-280
January 6, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
89.839
Miami of Ohio
78.603
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 11
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 14
56
Dunkel Pick:
Miami of Ohio
(+14); Under

**Udog** · 12-15-2019, 09:00 AM

College football non-New Year's Six bowls odds and action: Michigan-Alabama total quickly surges up
Patrick Everson

Nick Saban and Alabama reached the College Football Playoff in each of its first five years, but missed out this season, The Crimson Tide are 7-point favorites against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.

Much of the college football talk this past week centered on the four-team College Football Playoff and the other four New Year’s Six bowl games. But there are plenty of other interesting matchups spread across the holiday season. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a handful of games, and provides a complete list of every other matchup, with insights from oddsmaker Matt Lindeman at Circa Sports in Las Vegas.

Citrus Bowl

(14) MICHIGAN VS (13) ALABAMA (-6.5)

Alabama lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a hip injury in mid-November in a blowout win at Mississippi State, which might have kept Nick Saban’s squad out of the CFP. Two weeks later at Auburn, the Crimson Tide (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) fell just short 48-45 as 3.5-point favorites.

Had ‘Bama won that Iron Bowl matchup, it would’ve been interesting to see how the CFP selection committee rated the Tide against one-loss Oklahoma.

Michigan had a nice October/November stretch in which it won four in a row SU and five consecutive ATS, but the regular season ended with a big thud at the Big House. The Wolverines (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) got trucked by Ohio State 56-27 as 9-point home underdogs.

“We opened this number at ‘Bama -6.5. As you could expect, there isn't a ton of Michigan interest early, and ‘Bama money has driven us up to -7,” Lindeman said of this New Year’s Day game. “We've also seen a flood of Over money that's pushed the total up from 54.5 to 59.5. This is an intriguing game, because both teams could potentially have players sitting out in preparation for the NFL Draft.

“Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines didn't show any interest in their bowl game against Florida last season,” Lindeman added, alluding to a 41-15 Peach Bowl loss. “But the Crimson Tide have questionable motivation after missing out on the playoff for the first time in years.”

Las Vegas Bowl

WASHINGTON VS (19) BOISE STATE (+6.5)

The bowl committee in Vegas spiced this up by having Washington coach Chris Petersen, who resigned Dec. 2 but will coach in this Dec. 21 tilt, go up against a Boise State program he put on the national roadmap.

Washington got some preseason chatter as a potential CFP contender, but a stunning Week 2 home loss to California and a midseason three-losses-in-four-weeks stretch doomed any such hopes. The Huskies (7-5 SU and ATS) capped the regular season with a 31-13 win over Washington State laying 7.5 points at home.

Boise State is on a six-game winning streak that followed its only loss of the year, at Brigham Young as a touchdown chalk in Week 8. The Broncos (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) rolled over Hawaii 31-10 giving 14 points in the Mountain West Conference championship game.

This line was on the move immediately, opening Washington -6.5 last Sunday and dropping to Huskies -3.5 in less than an hour.

“The market did not like our opener on this game, as our Washington -6.5 number was quickly bet down,” Lindeman said. “We're currently sitting at -3.5 and will be rooting for Chris Petersen in his swan song. It's been a down year for the Huskies, and Boise State loves getting its shot at Pac-12 opponents in bowl season. But I haven't been terribly impressed by Boise State, and I wouldn't be surprised if this number goes back up.”

Outback Bowl

(18) MINNESOTA VS (12) AUBURN (-7)

Heading into Week 12, Minnesota was surprisingly undefeated and in the Big Ten title chase, and therefore was a possible CFP contender if things broke right. But they didn’t. The Golden Gophers (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) lost at Iowa that week, and in the regular-season finale two weeks later, they tumbled at home to Wisconsin 38-17 as 3-point pups.

Auburn faced a stretch of SEC games in which it traveled to Florida and LSU, then hosted Georgia in a span of six weeks, and Gus Malzahn’s troops lost all three games. However, the Tigers (9-3 SU and ATS) finished the regular season with a big exclamation point, outlasting Alabama 48-45 catching 3.5 points at home in the Iron Bowl.

“There has been some Auburn support early, as they've bet the game from -7 to -7.5,” Lindeman said. “P.J. Fleck's squad has been a pleasant surprise this year, but doesn't quite stack up to Auburn from a talent standpoint. This could be one of the best defenses Minnesota has faced yet.”

Lindeman said the total spiked from Sunday’s opener of 49 up to 52.5 by Saturday, with Over money coming in early for this Jan. 1 affair.

Quick Lane Bowl

PITTSBURGH VS EASTERN MICHIGAN (+16.5)

Pittsburgh dropped its last two games and three of its last five, so coach Pat Narduzzi’s squad doesn’t bring much momentum into this Dec. 26 contest at Ford Field in Detroit. The Panthers (7-5 SU and ATS) went off as 9-point favorites at Boston College in Week 14 and were dealt a 26-19 outright loss.

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan barely reached bowl eligibility in the Mid-American Conference, needing wins in two of its last three games to do so. The Eagles (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) closed with a 34-26 loss at Kent State laying 4 points.

“This game was our biggest disagreement with the offshore market, as we opened it Pittsburgh -16.5 and other books opened it -9.5,” Lindeman said. “We were quickly bet down under 14 and have now settled in at 10.5. Eastern Michigan is getting to play in its home state, but this looks like a serious mismatch. The MAC typically struggles during bowl season.”

Independence Bowl

MIAMI VS LOUISIANA TECH (+10)

Miami likely had higher hopes than landing in this Dec. 26 game in Shreveport, La., but that’s what happens when a team falls to .500 after losing its last two games as a sizable favorite. The Hurricanes (6-6 SU and ATS) went off as 21-point faves at Florida International and tumbled 30-24, then lost at Duke 27-17 giving 9.5 points.

Louisiana Tech had a four-game midseason SU and ATS streak, then rebounded from a two-game hiccup to finish with a Week 14 win. The Bulldogs (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) pulled away from Texas-San Antonio in the second half to claim a 41-27 victory, though they failed to cash as hefty 21-point home favorites.

“We've seen a big move on the ‘dog here, as Louisiana Tech is playing an hour from campus and Miami is traditionally a horrible bowl bet,” Lindeman said. “We opened the game Miami -10 and have been bet down to 6.5. The Hurricanes are obviously the more talented team, but really struggled down the stretch and have major questions at quarterback. It's hard to make a strong case for them in this one.”

Miami coach Manny Diaz indicated starting QB Jarren Williams and backup N’Kosi Perry will compete to see who starts in the Independence Bowl.

Below are opening/current lines at Circa Sports for all other bowl games. Asterisk (*) denotes College Football Playoff matchups.

Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 20: Buffalo from -4 to -6.5 vs. Charlotte.
Frisco Bowl, Dec. 20: Utah State from -8.5 to -7 vs. Kent State.
New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 21: San Diego State from -2 to -3.5 vs. Central Michigan.
Cure Bowl, Dec. 21: Georgia Southern from -6 to -5 vs. Liberty.
Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 21: Southern Methodist from -5.5 to -3 vs. Florida Atlantic.
Camellia Bowl, Dec. 21: From pick to Arkansas State -2.5 vs. Florida International.
New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 21: Appalachian State from -15 to -16.5 vs. Alabama-Birmingham.
Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 23: Central Florida -17 vs. Marshall, no move.
Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24: From pick to Brigham Young -1.5 vs. Hawaii.
Military Bowl, Dec. 27: North Carolina from -7.5 to -4.5 vs. Temple.
Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27: Michigan State -3 to -5 vs. Wake Forest.
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27: Texas A&M from -4.5 to -7.5 vs. Oklahoma State.
Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27: From pick to Iowa -2 vs. Southern California.
Cheez-It Bowl, Dec. 27: Air Force from -1.5 to -3 vs. Washington State.
Camping World Bowl, Dec. 28: Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Iowa State, no move.
Cotton Bowl, Dec. 28: Penn State from -9.5 to -7 vs. Memphis.
* Peach Bowl, Dec. 28: Louisiana State from -11 to -13 vs. Oklahoma.
* Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 28: Clemson from -1 to -2 vs. Ohio State.
First Responder Bowl, Dec. 30: Western Kentucky from -1 to -3.5 vs. Western Michigan.
Music City Bowl, Dec. 30: Mississippi State -3.5 vs. Louisville, no move.
Redbox Bowl, Dec. 30: California from -7 to -6, back to -7 vs. Illinois.
Orange Bowl, Dec. 30: Florida from -14 to -13.5, back to -14 vs. Virginia.
Belk Bowl, Dec. 31: Virginia Tech -3 vs. Kentucky, no move.
Sun Bowl, Dec. 31: Arizona State from -2.5 to -4.5 vs. Florida State.
Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31: Navy from -1.5 to -2.5 vs. Kansas State.
Arizona Bowl, Dec. 31: Wyoming from -7.5 to 7 vs. Georgia State.
Alamo Bowl, Dec. 31: Utah from -10 to -8 vs. Texas.
Rose Bowl, Jan. 1: Wisconsin from -3.5 to -3 vs. Oregon.
Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1: Georgia from -9 to -7.5 vs. Baylor.
Birmingham Bowl, Jan. 2: Cincinnati from -4.5 to -7 vs. Boston College.
Gator Bowl, Jan. 2: Tennessee -1.5 vs. Indiana, no move.
Potato Bowl, Jan. 3: Ohio from -7 to -7.5 vs. Nevada.
Armed Forces Bowl, Jan. 4: Tulane from -7.5 to -7 vs. Southern Mississippi.
LendingTree Bowl, Jan 6: Louisiana-Lafayette from -14.5 to -14 vs. Miami-Ohio.

**Udog** · 12-17-2019, 10:32 PM

Buffalo vs Charlotte college football picks and Bahamas Bowl predictions

The Buffalo Bulls are betting favorites in their Bahamas Bowl clash with the Charlotte 49ers.

Don't let those defensive metrics fool you: The Buffalo Bulls are much more than a one-dimensional team as they head to Nassau for a Bahamas Bowl showdown with the Charlotte 49ers on December 20.

The Bulls earned a bowl berth largely on the strength of their top-10 defense, but showed their offensive chops down the stretch by scoring 43+ points in four of their final five games.

We break down the odds for this bowl game with our best bets and predictions.
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl: Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

Buffalo Bulls vs. Charlotte 49ers (+6.5, 57)

SPREAD BET

You could make a legitimate case that the Bulls are being short-changed by oddsmakers after looking like the best team in the MAC over the final two months of the season. Buffalo overcame an ice-cold start by finishing 5-1 SU in their final six games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests – and the covers were emphatic, with the Bulls winning each of those five games by at least 19 points.

Charlotte comes in having won five consecutive games (with a 4-1 ATS mark in that span) but is lacking where it matters most, ranking 99th in the country in run defense (192.8 yards per game). We like the Bulls to cover.

PICK: Buffalo -6.5

TOTAL BET

These teams finished their respective regular seasons with eerily similar SU, ATS and O/U records, along with identical home and away marks. But it's the totals similarity that we're keying in on here, with both teams cashing the Over in eight of their 12 games this season.

However, that's where the similarities end, with the 49ers having converted the Under in four of their past six games and Buffalo on a red-hot 5-0 O/U run. Both teams have proven capable of putting up points this season, and with Bahamas Bowl participants having produced 65+ points three times in its five-year history, we're keen on this one being a high-scoring affair.

PICK: Over 57

ALTERNATE BET

Given the first two picks in this preview, we're fairly confident that the Bulls will be able to surpass their team point total. But while you're welcome to bet that one, we have another pick in mind for this section – and it's based on the Bulls' red zone defense.

Buffalo was simply sensational when opposing teams reached their 20-yard line, limiting foes to just 20 touchdowns and seven field goals in 39 red-zone opportunities; that 69.2-percent opponent success rate is sixth-lowest in the country. Charlotte scored on more than 90 percent of its red-zone trips, but could struggle against a stout Buffalo defense.

PICK: Charlotte Under team total

TRENDS TO WATCH

• Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.

• Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 neutral site games.

• 49ers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.

• Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 non-conference games.

**Udog** · 12-17-2019, 10:42 PM

Utah State vs Kent State college football picks and Frisco Bowl predictions

The Kent State Golden Flashes are underdogs in their Frisco Bowl clash with the Utah State Aggies.

Kent State is back in a bowl game for the first time in seven years – and it'll face stiff competition as it tangles with Utah State in Frisco, Texas on December 20.

The Golden Flashes rode a late-season scoring surge to just their fourth bowl appearance in program history, and will look to knock off an Aggies team that underachieved for most of the season.

We break down the odds for this bowl game with our best bets and predictions.
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas

Utah State Aggies vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (+7, 65)

SPREAD BET

Utah State might have the more talented team – and play in the more competitive conference – but Kent State does have one major advantage it could very well leverage to an upset victory. The Golden Flashes were one of the most responsible teams in the country with the football, ranking seventh in Division I with just 11 turnovers; its two interceptions were third-fewest in the nation.

While the Aggies finished 12th in the nation in turnovers forced with 23, they gave it up 23 times themselves, ranking among the worst offenders in college football in that category. Kent State might not win, but it should cover.

PICK: Kent State +7

TOTAL BET

It's reasonable to expect both sides to threaten a big score here; Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall, while Utah State finished in the Top-50 nationally in total offense despite facing a handful of difficult opponents.

There are other factors working in both teams' favor, as well: both teams rank inside the top 40 in third-down conversion rate but are in the bottom-20 in third-down conversion defense. Both teams also rank below the national average in red-zone success rate against. Just about any way you look at it, this one could be decided by which team gets to 40 points first.

PICK: Over 65

ALTERNATE BET

Don't be surprised to see the Golden Flashes get off to a lightning-fast start (pardon the pun.) Kent State has scored 17 or more first-half points in three of its previous four games, highlighted by a 24-point first-half eruption in a 34-26 road victory over Central Michigan to close out its MAC campaign.

That aligns well with Utah State's recent first-half defensive struggles; the Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. Utah State might be able to adjust at the half, but Kent State is a good bet to make some waves before the break.

PICK: Kent State Over 1H team total

TRENDS TO WATCH

• Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.

• Under is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 bowl games.

• Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

• Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 non-conference games.

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Army/Navy & Bowl Season (Sat., Dec. 14 - Mon., Jan. 6)

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Army/Navy & Bowl Season (Sat., Dec. 14 - Mon., Jan. 6)

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