NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thur., Nov. 14 - Mon., Nov. 18)

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


GOING DEEP

The Oakland Raiders lost free safety Karl Joseph last week and are now without both their starting safeties for Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Replacing Joseph will be D.J. Swearinger who was released by the Cardinals earlier this year and has a pathetic PFF rating of 45. Swearinger’s addition won't help a Raiders’ secondary that is allowing the second-most yards per completion at 12.3.

The only team allowing more yards per completion is the Bengals. For the year, Cincy is getting torched for 13.3 yards per completion, but things have been even worse of late as they are giving up 17.2 yards per completion over their last three games.

All of this adds up to long touchdowns, something both teams are familiar with in their last four games. The Raiders have scored three TDs of 42 yards or longer and have given up two since Week 7. The Bengals have found many ways to have long touchdowns in their recent matches, including a 56-yard pick-six, a 65-yard passing TD against, a 47-yard TD run against and a 92-yard kickoff return.

We are banging the Over on the longest touchdown scored at 41.5 yards.


HAPPY FEET

Matthew Stafford will miss another game while backup Jeff Driskel takes over for a second week as the Lions host the Cowboys. Driskel threw 46 passes for 269 yards against the Chicago Bears' defense last week in a 20-13 loss. One thing that stood out was Driskel’s athleticism as he also rushed for 37 yards on six carries with a long of 11.

Last year in five starts with the Bengals, the former 2016 sixth-round pick averaged nearly four rushes a game at over four yards per attempt. The Lions QB will take on a Dallas defense that has allowed 71 rushing yards on 11 attempts to opposing QBs over the last three weeks.

This may be a hard prop bet to find but could be more available closer to kick off. Take Driskel’s Over rushing total on any number less than 20 yards.


SWEET SPOT FOR SANDERS

The Philadelphia Eagles just signed Jay Ajayi off the street which shows how depleted their running back depth is of late. Jordan Howard has not been cleared for contact with a stinger and Darren Sproles is done for the season with a hip injury. This leaves Miles Sanders as the top back in an offense that is leading the league in rushing attempts over the last three weeks.

Ove the last two weeks, Howard had out-snapped Sanders 96 to 49 and outgained the rookie 178 on 4.2 ypc to 116 on 8.92 ypc. Likely with the keys to the offense in week 11 and with the Eagles facing the Patriots’ 12th-ranked DVOA rush defense, Sanders could be the focal point of an offense who will also be without receiver Alshon Jeffery.

Considering Sanders has also averaged three catches for 43 yards since Week 7, we're going to look at Sanders’ total yards and hit the Over on any total below 98 yards. This is another prop that will be more available closer to kick off once Howard's availibility is known.


SHOOTOUT DOWN SOUTH

News that Panthers cornerback Ross Cockrell is out for Week 11 while CBs James Bradberry and Donte Jackson are nicked up as well, has us thinking that Sunday's game between Carolina and Atlanta has shootout potential. The Panthers’ pass defense (3rd DVOA) has been rock solid but they have been getting mugged by the run (32nd DVOA). These injuries in the secondary do not come at an ideal time as they will face a heavy dose of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with RB Devonte Freeman missing the tilt.

Kyle Allen and the offense have had to push the ball in their possessions lately as their defense has been getting beat up, allowing over 400 yards since Week 8. They put up over 400 yards of offense themselves last week versus Green Bay's 19th ranked DVOA defense. This week they get to light up Atlanta’s 30th-ranked DVOA defense at home where Carolina is averaging 26.2 ppg.

With the Falcons forced to pass against a great passing defense that will be missing some key pieces, we love the Over 49.


BEST VS. THE WORST

These are the No.1 matchups for receivers versus defenses per Football Outsiders.

WR Terry McLaurin vs New York Jets: The Jets secondary is giving up the most yards to opposing WR1s at 91.5 yards per game. They have also allowed five TDs over the last three games to team's top receivers.

Week 11 will really put fading the worst to the test as Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins is averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt which would put him in 31st amongst quarterbacks. Tread carefully with McLaurin’s 59.5 receiving yard total, a number he hasn’t topped in three weeks

TE Jared Cook vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fresh off a 10-target, six-catch 74-yard performance last week, Jared Cook faces the Bucs who are allowing 84 yards to opposing tight ends this year. Cook went 4-41-1 versus the Bucs in Week 5, playing in 60 percent of the snaps but saw his snap count increase to 71 percent last week. Look for the Saints TE to surpass his total of 40.5 receiving yards in a game that has the third-highest total of the week.

RB Ezekiel Elliott vs Detroit Lions: Zeke could have a big day through the air versus a Detroit Lions defense that is giving up 55.3 yards receiving to opposing RBs. The Dallas running back has only been targeted three times in the last two weeks but averaged nearly six targets a game from Week 4 through 7. Take the Over on any total below 20 yards.


FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.


HEATING UP EARLY

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.


LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.


LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.


AIN'T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5.

[Udog]

NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his second straight game when Detroit hosts Dallas on Sunday. The Lions would've been 3-point underdogs with Stafford, but are 7-point pups without him.

NFL Week 11 won’t include the top quarterback for the Motor City franchise, though at least this week, sportsbooks and bettors aren’t in the dark about that fact. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact

DETROIT LIONS: Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his second straight game, meaning Jeff Driskel gets the nod at quarterback when the Lions host the Cowboys. “We put up Cowboys -6.5. If Stafford was playing, it would be Cowboys -3.” Detroit stretched to a 7-point underdog Friday afternoon, with a total of 47.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Nick Foles will return at Indianapolis, after missing eight games with a broken collarbone suffered in Week 1. “Foles moves the line a little bit,” Osterman said of a number at Jags +2.5 (even) on Friday afternoon. “That game would be Jaguars +3 or +3 (even) with Gardner Minshew.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Likewise, No. 1 QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) returns after missing last week’s 16-12 loss to Miami, in which Brian Hoyer threw three interceptions. “Oh yeah, Brissett is worth a couple of points over Hoyer. If Foles was playing against Hoyer, this game would be Colts -1 or -1.5.” Instead, with Foles facing Brissett, it’s Colts -2.5 (-120), with a total of 43.5.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) will miss his second straight game and third in four weeks when the Vikes play host to Denver. “That was expected. He’s worth about a half-point.” Minnesota is a 10-point favorite, with a total of 40.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Running back Jordan Howard (shoulder) is questionable for a big game against New England, with Philly a 3.5-point home pup. “If he’s ruled out, I wouldn’t expect the line to go to 4 just from that. The Eagles have plenty of backs.” That said, The SuperBook moved to Eagles +4 Friday afternoon, with a total of 45.

CHICAGO BEARS: Running back David Montgomery (ankle) is a game-time decision at the Los Angeles Rams. “Montgomery is worth a half-point, but I wouldn’t expect it to move from +6.5 to +7. Probably +6.5 (even).”

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Wideouts Emanuel Sanders (ribs) and Dante Pettis (back) are questionable for a home tilt against Arizona. “That’s part of the reason that line has come down so much. Both of them out and Greg Kittle out accounts for 1.5 to 2 points,” Osterman said, alluding to the tight end likely out a second straight game with knee/ankle issues.
Weather Watch

KANSAS CITY VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s more to this than just weather, as altitude could be an issue in a game set for Monday night at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, at an elevation of 7,300 feet – 2,000 feet higher than AFC West outpost Denver. Rain this weekend might hamper a field that last year was in such poor condition that the Chiefs-Rams game was moved from there to Los Angeles.

“The altitude doesn’t really affect the line, because it affects both teams equally,” Osterman said. “But if there is rain, there would be concern about the field, given the past history. So I would expect the total to come down if there’s rain.” That said, the best chance for rain was Friday night. The total opened at 49.5 and reached 52 Thursday.

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE: It could be a little chilly for the Texans’ taste, in the mid-40s, but the line and the total – currently Ravens -4 and 51.5 – won’t change on that information. “No effect on the Ravens game.”

NEW ENGLAND AT PHILADELPHIA: This is a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, and rain is expected Sunday night in Philly. “The total has come down 1 point on that game. The rain definitely has something to do with that.” The total was at 45 Friday afternoon.
Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT MINNESOTA: “The line has gone from Vikings -10.5 to -10, but most public money is on the Vikings.”

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: “We’re seeing some public money on the Niners, but most of the money has been sharp play on the Cardinals.” The 49ers opened -13.5 and dropped to -10 by Thursday.

NEW YORK JETS AT WASHINGTON: This is actually Pros joining Joes, but I’m dropping it in here because it’s an interesting note for an otherwise dull matchup. “A lot of Redskins money from sharps, and some public money. We’re going to need the Jets the most among the early games.” The game opened pick and moved to Redskins -2.5.

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 11
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Ravens (-4 ½, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
A pair of first place AFC squads hook up in Baltimore as the Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) return from their bye week. Prior to its bye, Houston crushed Jacksonville in London, 26-3 to pull off the season sweep of the Jaguars, while holding its first opponent to single-digits in points this season. The Texans are seeking their first three-game winning streak of the season, while already knocking off the Chiefs and Chargers as a road underdog.

The Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are fresh off their fifth consecutive victory after routing the winless Bengals, 49-13 as 10 ½-point road favorites. Quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns and ran for another one on an electrifying 47-yard scamper to give Baltimore its third straight cover following a 1-5 ATS start. The Ravens have failed to cover in three opportunities as a home favorite this season, while last cashing in this role in Week 12 last season against the Raiders.

These teams hooked up in Baltimore two seasons ago as the Ravens held off the Texans, 23-16 as 7 ½-point favorites. Obviously Jackson wasn’t on the roster, as Joe Flacco started for Baltimore opposite not Deshaun Watson, but Tom Savage got the start for the Texans. Houston has played five games at M&T Bank Stadium since its expansion year in 2002 and have never beaten Baltimore once on the road.

Best Bet: Ravens 27, Texans 24

Jaguars at Colts (-2 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST
Nick Foles inked a four-year, $88 million deal with Jacksonville in the offseason, but the former Super Bowl MVP hasn’t played a full game yet for the Jaguars (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS). Foles sustained a broken collarbone in the first half of the season opening loss at Kansas City as rookie Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback. Minshew had some highlights as Jacksonville went 4-4 in games started by the former Washington State standout, but Foles is back in the lineup for Sunday. The Jags have not defeated a team with a winning record, but Jacksonville has cashed in three of four road games this season.

The Colts (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) welcome back their starting quarterback after Brian Hoyer was in for the injured Jacoby Brissett in last Sunday’s shocking 16-12 defeat to the Dolphins as 11-point home favorites. Brissett was dealing with a sprained knee suffered in the loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but he is ready to return for a Colts’ team who are 0-3 ATS the last three games. The Colts are coming off an ‘under’ against Miami, as Indianapolis has not hit two consecutive ‘unders’ this season.

Jacksonville has covered seven of the past eight meetings with Indianapolis, as the two matchups in 2018 were decided by a total of nine points. The Colts are 4-1 in the previous five affairs with the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium, including picking up a 29-26 triumph last season.

Best Bet: Jaguars 20, Colts 17

Patriots (-4 ½, 44 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST
These teams hook up for the first time since the epic Super Bowl LII two seasons ago won by the Eagles, 41-33 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Philadelphia (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) enters this rematch on a two-game winning streak after defeating Buffalo and Chicago in the past two contests, while fresh off the bye week. The Eagles have yet to win three consecutive games this season, as they enter Sunday’s action tied for the top spot in the NFC East with the Cowboys. Philadelphia allowed 37 points in a blowout loss at Dallas in Week 7, but the Eagles have yielded a combined 37 points in the past two games.

The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are also off the bye week, but New England dropped its first game of the season two weeks ago in a 37-20 blowout loss at Baltimore as three-point favorites. It seems easy to blindly back the Patriots off a defeat, but New England lost back-to-back games twice last season, and in both situations, they fell on the road each time. Tom Brady lit up the Eagles in that Super Bowl setback for 505 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Patriots have won 10 of the past 12 regular season affairs with NFC foes.

New England owns a perfect 2-0 record at Lincoln Financial Field since the stadium opened in 2003, but the Patriots have lost the two meetings with the Eagles. In the most recent regular season matchup in Foxboro in 2015, Philadelphia surprised New England as nine-point underdogs, 35-28.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Eagles 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 44 – Cardinals at 49ers

San Francisco’s defense allowed 77 points in its first seven games, but the 49ers have given up 52 points in the past two weeks. The Niners yielded 25 points against the Cardinals two weeks ago in a 28-25 victory in Arizona, but the final touchdown occurred on an 88-yard strike by Kyler Murray with five minutes remaining. Arizona’s offense hasn’t fared well on the road against teams with winning records by scoring 17 at Baltimore and 9 at New Orleans, while San Francisco.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

We’ll stick with that San Francisco/Arizona matchup as the 49ers opened as 13 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday. The Niners have slipped to a 10-point favorite, which also coincides coming off their first loss of the season to Seattle in overtime. The Cardinals have been a solid team to back recently by covering in five of the last six games, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark away from Glendale this season. San Francisco has not covered in two opportunities as a double-digit favorite this season, which includes that three-point win at Arizona as 10 ½-point chalk in Week 9.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to win a game this season as they take their 0-9 record to the Black Hole in Oakland. Cincinnati is off a 49-13 home blowout loss to Baltimore last week, while Oakland is fresh off a pair of close home wins over Detroit and Los Angeles. Now, the Raiders are laying points for only the second time this season, as four of their past five covers have come in the underdog role. The Bengals’ offense has struggled in 2019, but Cincinnati has cashed in road games as ‘dogs of nine points or more at Seattle and Baltimore.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Teams returning from the bye after a London game own an 0-6 SU/ATS record this season. The two teams that are in this situation in Week 11 are the Texans and Jaguars. Both are road underdogs as Houston heads to Baltimore, while Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis. Four of the six losing teams fell by double-digits, but Houston has not lost a game by more than a touchdown in 2019.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season, and it's hard to believe we have less than two months until the postseason begins. We're also hurtling toward Thanksgiving, too, when we'lll have the three Thursday games. But first things first, Week 11 features some very important battles. After Thursday's explosive matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns, the intensity appears to be ratcheting up with the pressure. The TNF game ended up going 'under', snapping a six-game 'over' streak in primetime games, the longest such run of the season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 10 7-6 6-7 6-7

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 72-75-1 71-76-1 66-78-4

The books crushed it again in Week 10, but again that was mostly due to sides. The totals were just 7-6 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

The half totals were very consistent, going 7-6 in favor of the 'under' last week. Here are the overall numbers this season for both the first-half (76-71-1) and second-half (78-66-4).

Division Bell

In the five divisional battles in Week 10, three went over - including the Monday nighter between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. The under is now 25-20 (55.6%) in divisional games this season, which includes Thursday's Steelers-Browns result.

Divisional Game Results Week 10
L.A. Chargers at Oakland Over (49) Oakland 26, L.A. Chargers 24
Atlanta at New Orleans Under (51.5) Atlanta 26, New Orleans 9
Baltimore at Cincinnati Over (44.5) Baltimore 49, Cincinnati 13
Detroit at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 20, Detroit 13
Seattle at San Francisco Over (47) Seattle 27, San Francisco 24

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Carolina: 54 to 49 ½
Dallas at Detroit: 51 to 47 ½
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (MNF): 49 to 52
Houston at Baltimore: 49 to 51 ½
Chicago at L.A. Rams (SNF): 42 to 40
Denver at Minnnesota: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at L.A. Rams: Under 94%
Houston at Baltimore: Over 91%
Atlanta at Carolina: Under 83%
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 81%
Denver at Minnesota: Over 79%
Arizona at San Francisco: Under 76%
Cincinnati at Oakland: Under 75%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (73 percent) in the New England at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in N.Y. Jets at Washington (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 11

Week 10 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-2 19-25
NFC vs. NFC 2-1 17-16
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 15-12-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 22-21

Other Week 11 Action

Dallas at Detroit: The Lions turn to QB Jeff Driskel again with QB Matthew Stafford (back) still on the shelf. The Lions have been experiencing plenty of injuries on offense, although they still should be able to do enough to go 'over' in this one. The defense has been atrocious, actually making Chicago's Mitch Trubisky look like an NFL-caliber signal caller. The over has hit in three of four games at Ford Field this season, and the defense has allowed 34, 42 and 26 points in those three over results. As road favorites, the Cowboys have posted 37 and 31 in their wins and 22 and 10 in two losses.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Saints and Bucs square off at Raymond James Stadium. The first meeting in New Orleans back on Oct. 6 cashed the over, with the Saints winning 31-24. The over has hit in three of the past four in this series. Tampa Bay ranks dead-last against the pass, allowing 298.9 yards per game. New Orleans should enter this game angry after being held to just nine points in their stunning loss at home against the Falcons last week. The over is 9-3 in the past 12 for New Orleans after a straight-up loss, while the over is 7-3 in Tampa's past 10 after a straight-up win. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 for the Bucs inside the division.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Panthers host the Falcons, who stunned the Saints in NOLA last week in an 'under' result. The under also hit in the Panthers game in the snow on the road against the Packers. In this NFC South battle, the under has ruled over the past 12 outings, going 9-3. That includes a 5-1 under mark in the past six battles at Bank of America Stadium, with the outlier Dec. 24, 2016 when the Falcons won 33-16 to cash over tickets by a half-point. The Falcons have actually hit the under in five straight against winning teams, while the under is 5-2 for the Panthers in the past seven against losing sides.

N.Y. Jets at Washington: There are just three wins in between the Jets and Redskins in the most unattractive game of the weekend. However, the winning tickets cash just the same. The over has connected in each of the past three for Gang Green, as they have averaging 22.3 PPG during the span while allowing 27.3 PPG. In fact, the Jets have allowed 22 or more points each of their past eight outings. Overall the Jets rank 25th in the NFL with 26.4 PPG allowed. However, their offense hasn't exactly been on point, ranking 32nd in total yards and passing yards, 31st in rushing yards and 30th in points scored at 14.4 PPG. The Redskins are also 30th in total yards and 31st in passing yards per game, while ranking dead-last in points scored (12.0 PPG). The lack of offense is why this game is the lowest total on the board, and only game under 40.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills and Dolphins met on Oct. 20, with the Bills winning a 31-21 decision in a game which cashed well over. The previous two meetings at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami have produced a pair of under results, with the Bills averaging 19.5 PPG and the Dolphins averaging 18.5 PPG in those two battles. However, the over is 7-2 in the past nine in this series. Miami's defense has gotten better, allowing just 15 PPG in their past two games, and after posting 10, 0, 6, 10 in their first four outings, they're averaging 18.6 PPG across the past five games. The Dolphins still have a ways to go before they are considered a juggernaut, but they have been improving. Their 21 points in the loss in Buffalo was their second-highest production of the season.

Houston at Baltimore: The highest total on the board for Sunday's slate will be a rematch of QBs DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, as these guys met in a memorable Louisville-Clemson battle in college. The Texans are coming off a bye after playing their last game in London, a 26-3 win over the Jags. If you're playing the 'London system', you'll want to play the over in this one. In the past two seasons the over is 9-3 for NFL teams playing in their first game back after a London game. As an added bonus, teams are 3-8-1 ATS in the past 12 after playing in the UK, which includes losses by both the Bengals and Rams last week.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The London system also applies in this one, as the Jags are back after a bye following their London game. The over/under split last season between these two divisional rivals, with the lowest scoring in the NFL last season, a 6-0 decision in favor of the Jags. The over hit in the meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 11, a 29-26 victory going to the Colts. That was a rarity, however, as the under has hit in seven of the past eight battles in Indianapolis, and four of the past five meetings overall. If you're an under bettor, you'll like the fact the under is a perfect 6-0 in Jacksonville's past six against winning sides and 13-5 in Indy's past 18 games inside the division. The under is also 13-3 in the past 16 when the Colts are rebounding from a straight-up loss. The good news for the Colts is that QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is back under center. The over is actually 5-3 in Brissett's eight starts this season, with the under 1-0 in the game he missed last Sunday. And remember, London!

New England at Philadelphia: The Patriots and Eagles are each well rested after byes last week. New England's offense is usually well prepared after a bye, hitting the 'over' in six of the past seven following a week of rest. The under has been the dominant trend for the Pats this season, and really over the past two, cashing in 15 of the past 21 overall and five of the past six road games. The under is 12-5 in the past 17 for the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, while going 9-2 in the past 11 at home against teams with a winning road record. Philly's defense was very impressive in two games before the break, allowing just 13 and 14, and they have yielded just 20 total points in the past two home outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 11, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 40 ½ to 48 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have cashed the over in four of the past five outings, although the under cashed in their only game as a double-digit favorite back on Oct. 24 in a 19-9 win over the Redskins. The Vikings have faced two AFC West foes to date, scoring 34 and 23, hitting the 'over' in each contest. The under is 3-1 in Denver's four games on the road this season, splitting 1-1 in the first two against NFC North foes. As far as being a double-digit underdog, there isn't much to glean from this. Denver hasn't been a 'dog by more than 10 points in over a decade.

Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET): The Cards and 49ers just met on Halloween, and it was a treat for over bettors. Arizona gave San Francisco a hard time, just coming up short 28-25 in an 'over' result. The over has hit in three in a row for San Francisco, scoring 51, 28 and 24 while allowing 13, 25 and 27. It's quite the turnaround after a 5-1 'under' starts for Frisco. The over in 6-1 in the past seven for Arizona when coming off a straight-up loss, and 5-1 in San Francisco's past six inside the division. The Niners are coming off their first loss of the season, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight following a straight-up loss, although we haven't see that happen this season.

Cincinnati at Oakland (4:25 p.m. ET): The Bengals and Raiders lock horns in the Black Hole, and this line ballooned to double digits in rather quick fashion. If you remember the "Thursday Night Football" system, the system tells you to play the over. The system is 6-3 in nine games, and was a winner last week with an over in the Cards-Bucs battle. While the over is the play if you follow the system, be careful. Cincinnati's offense is in flux, and following a move to QB Ryan Finley they look like they wanted to go with a more ground-based attack. RB Joe Mixon saw 30 carries to buoy the offense, and Finley just didn't look terribly sharp. The Raiders rank 10th against the run, so the Bengals might want to consider airing it out more. Oakland ranks 30th against the pass, allowing 285.3 yards per game.

Under the Lights

Chicago at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle between the Bears and Rams is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The Los Angeles defense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders lately. They're averaging just 20 PPG across the past four outings, and the defense is yielding just 14.3 PPG during the span. It's no surprise that the under is a perfect 4-0 during the span. In four games at the L.A. Coliseum this season, the under is 3-1, with the outlier that insane 55-40 loss against the Bucs back on Sept. 29. The Bears enter on a 3-0 under run, and they have scored 21 or fewer points in seven of their nine outings. Two of Chicago's three over results have come on the road this season, however, including a primetime game Sept. 23 in Washington.

Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Chiefs and Chargers hook up at Estadio Azteca in Ciudad de Mexico. We've seen two Mexico games in the past, with the over/under splittng 1-1. We were supposed to have the Chiefs and Rams hook up last Nov. 19, but that game was moved to L.A. due to unsafe field conditions in Mexico City. Since QB Pat Mahomes took the reins of the offense, the over is 10-3 with the Chiefs in away games, averaging a robust 36.3 PPG. He scorched the Bolts for six touchdown passes last season, and over the past three years Kansas City is averaging 31.6 PPG against the AFC West divisional rivals. The over has inched up from 49.5 to 52, and is now the highest on the board. This game will be played at an elevation of 7,200 feet, well above the Mile High elevation these teams are used to in trips to Denver each season.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 14-0 ATS (9.11 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they allowed 100+ rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Ravens are 0-14 ATS (-6.96 ppg) since 2005 coming off a win where they completed at least 74% of their passes last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Nov 20, 2016 coming off a win where Carson Wentz threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Lions are 11-0 OU (11.59 ppg) since Nov 27, 2008 off a game as a dog where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Patriots are 0-14-1 OU (-9.37 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 as a road favorite coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 13-0 ATS (+15.81 ppg) on the road when they are off a SU and ATS loss and their opponent is off an SU and ATS win.

[Udog]

SNF - Bears at Rams
Matt Blunt

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Last week's rant against the Marvin Lewis coaching tree didn't work out, as Minnesota did go into Dallas and came out as the victors. The Vikings still got ultra-conservative in that 4th quarter as they did have a sense of playing not to lose rather then to win, and even with the unit lost, my opinion hasn't really changed on Minnesota. They are still a team that will tense up in tight spots and not likely get through. It's on to this week's game though, and another team I was wrong about this year on the whole, as Chicago heads west to play the LA Rams.

I had Chicago coming out of the NFC to be Super Bowl bound this year, and that couldn't have been more wrong just 10 weeks later. I knew the turnover margin they Bears got last year wasn't sustainable, but I expected the Bears offense to take multiple steps forward, not multiple steps backwards. Chicago's 2019 season is now on the brink of collapse now, as these guys know they are a much better team then what their record shows, but one more loss soon and it's probably time to pack up shop and get ready for offseason vacation plans. Chicago isn't likely going to catch Green Bay or Minnesota within the division, and then that leaves only one Wildcard spot as an option, and that's likely going to the NFC West runner up.

It's now or never for the Bears, and depending on how you figure Chicago's going to come out of that proposition is where you'll end up in terms of playing this game.

Total Talk

This number opened at 42 and has since taken 'under' action for the majority of the week. Given how bad the Bears offense has been this entire year, 'under' money in Chicago games is no surprise. It's not like the Rams offense did themselves any favors in terms of those potentially looking at an 'over' here, as LA's offense wasn't responsible for 9 of the 12 points the team scored last week. That's not a one-off of a bad game for Goff and that Rams attack either, as there are starting to be some louder concerns about that unit then anyone expected coming into the year.

On top of all that, it's easy to remember the game in late-December these two played last season in Chicago, where it was the Bears defense who choked the life out of a then-dynamic Rams attack. Chicago's basically got that same defense out there on the field this year, so there is that as well. 'Under' money was always going to come in here, and at 42 it's probably the right course of action. At the current number of 40.5, it's probably best to pass.

I say that because, the Rams “one-offs” of bad offensive performances rarely, if ever, turn into consecutive games like that. LA has scored 20 or fewer points three times this year, and after the previous two, they responded with 40 and 37 points themselves in the next respective games. They were actually just 1-1 SU (and 1-1 O/U and ATS) in those games, which tells you that after an offensive stinker, their own defensive play tends to take a step back. Chicago's offense wouldn't scare a 7th grade team right now, but they still are pros, and miscommunication or blown assignments on the back end of LA's defense is something all NFL teams can take advantage of.

Furthermore, LA is going to have a much better idea of what to expect from Chicago after last year's game, and a year to think about schemes that will have much better success against what the Bears run is plenty of time to find at least a few things that work.

It's also not a mid-December game in Chicago, it's in sunny, warm LA and that has to benefit the Rams chances for success on offense much more then walking into Chicago did a year ago. It's still hard to trust either of these teams to put up the necessary points to creep over the current total, but it's something that should be a pass now.

Side Spiel

Because this game is out in LA, and the Rams are in a “do-or-die” mode themselves in terms of making the playoffs this year, it is hard not to like the Rams to cover this number of less than a TD. LA is in just as a precarious spot in terms of trying to stay in the Wildcard picture, because they aren't likely to catch both San Francisco and Seattle. Beating down one of those teams looking up at them like Chicago could be a nice momentum builder for LA as the rest of their schedule is rather tough.

Sean McVay's ability to game plan will pay dividends in this rematch with Chicago too, and while the numbers don't always show it, LA's offense is easier to trust at home. McVay and Goff will have a much better plan set out in terms of attacking this Bears defense, and hopefully it leads to a nice 20+ point effort again coming off a bad offensive showing.

And then, we can't forget that it is the Bears offense on the other side of the field that will need to do more then nothing multiple times to ensure that this game stays within the point spread. At this point I'm not sure how you can thing that will be the case as it's not like LA's defense doesn't have a few talented playmakers as well. Quite frankly, I can't believe I was this wrong on Chicago coming into the year.

Finally, as desperate as Chicago's situation is and could be used as a positive in terms of motivation, do you really think there is that much belief in the locker room that the team can make something out of 2019. Sure, the Bears could win this week to stay alive, but then they've basically got to run the table, get a bit of help, and do it all with QB Mitchell Trubisky who doesn't even want T.V's on in the building because there is so much criticism coming his way. Do you really believe the Bears believe they can overcome all of that, and then go on to make a deep playoff run? I know I sure don't.

Chicago has resigned themselves to their fate of this being a sub-par, lost season weeks ago. Even if the defense plays the best any unit has in the history of football for the next six weeks or so, they've still got to overcome what they put on the field on offense, and long term in 2019, that just isn't going to work. Yes the defense will rise up at least one more time to potentially pull off a big upset – likely at home – a nice, warm trip to sunny Los Angeles in the middle of November isn't where I expect that to be the case. Especially against a Rams team who's underachieved by their standards as well this season.

Final Thoughts

The Rams may be a tough sell for some after what they saw from them in Pittsburgh last week, but they probably only need 20 points here to win and cover the game. Chicago's scored 20 or fewer points in three straight games and six of their nine games this season. The Bears offense has been that bad, and with the locker room already having a sense that the year will end up going nowhere, a trip to LA in November could 'conveniently' be full of distractions for many guys on this Bears team.

LA has a more legitimate shot at playing themselves back into playoff position, and at home and under the lights, they should get it done in relatively comfortable fashion.

Best Bet: LA Rams -6.5

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 11
Tony Mejia

Cowboys (-7/46.5) at Lions, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Matthew Stafford is sidelined for another week due to a back issue and may not even return for Detroit’s Thanksgiving game, so Jeff Driskel will be back on the center. The mobile Florida native has won once in six starts after last week’s setback against Chicago but does bring a skill set to the table that Dallas has to account for. He targeted Kenny Golladay nine times but connected just three times and didn’t get the benefit of much of a run game to help take the pressure off him since he ended up as the team’s leading rusher. Golladay hauled in a 47-yard score late in Detroit’s final push and offers the Lions their best chance to hang around.

The Lions have been more competitive at home than on the road, so we’ll see if that changes without Stafford. They’re 2-2 SU and ATS at Ford Field but have dropped four of their last five outright and haven’t covered in a four-game span. Coming off a disappointing home loss to Minnesota, this is undoubtedly a must-win for a Cowboys team that still also has to visit New England, Chicago and Philadelphia. Detroit CB Darius Slay will play, as will Amari Cooper, who has been limited in practice due to knee and ankle issues. Tackle La’el Collins is questionable but should play, while guard Zack Martin is expected to go. It seems like Jason Garrett gets fired on social media after every loss, but it would be especially bad for him to fumble away this one.

Saints (-5.5/49.5) at Bucs, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Following last week’s terrible loss to Atlanta, Drew Brees and an offense that managed just three field goals coming out of their bye week looks to rebound against a Bucs’ defense that ranks dead last in points allowed (31.0). Brees has had some rough days in Tampa over the years and has been picked off 18 times over 13 games. He called last week’s loss “unacceptable” but will have to rebound without guard Andrius Peat, who is out with an arm injury. Tackle Terron Armstead has been dealing with the flu, so the first part of what went wrong last week – protection – may still be shaky.

Jameis Winston hasn’t overcome his turnover issues but made enough plays against Arizona last week to help the Bucs snap a four-game losing streak. He’s going to get the ball to Mike Evans in this game after allowing his No. 1 receiver to be shut out by Marcus Lattimore the first time around. Lattimore is out with a hamstring issue this time so the Saints could have issues stopping Evans and Chris Godwin, who ranks third behind L.A.’s Cooper Kupp and N.O.’s Michael Thomas in yards after catch. Corner P.J. Williams is suspended and Patrick Robinson is dealing with a knee issue, so New Orleans comes in vulnerable. The Saints haven’t lost consecutive games since the beginning of the 2017 season and beat the Bucs 31-24 on Oct. 6, but they haven’t swept Tampa since ’14. The ‘over’ has connected in seven straight Tampa contests.

Falcons at Panthers (-4/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Falcons came out of their bye week refreshed and apparently locked in on playing spoiler. Another divisional foe awaits in the Panthers, who will see Atlanta twice in the next four games and looks to bounce back from a disappointing loss in Green Bay where they fell just short of putting themselves in position to tie. Kyle Allen has won both of his starts in Charlotte, but it’s been Christian McCaffrey whose shown out, running for 326 yards and four touchdowns.

Atlanta gets back CB Desmond Trufant but is still without safety Kemal Ishmael. The offense won’t have starting RB Devonta Freeman or productive Austin Hooper, who leads all NFL tight ends with 56 catches but is out with a knee injury. Brian Hill is expected to get the bulk of the carries trying to balance out the offense. Atlanta has won three of the last four meetings, holding McCaffrey to 465 yards and a single touchdown. Julio Jones has made 71 catches for 1,233 yards and six scores and has helped the Falcons to a 9-4 mark in games he’s played in.

Jaguars at Colts (-2.5/43), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Nick Foles will see his first action since Week 1 and is thrown into a situation where he’ll be asked to win on the road to get the Jags back to .500 just to make a late-season push appear feasible. Indianapolis is in survival mode too and gets Jacoby Brissett back from a knee injury after a dreadful loss to the Dolphins where backup Brian Hoyer struggled with turnovers. T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell remain sidelined, so Brissett will have to click with his tight ends and WR Zach Pascal.

While quarterbacks returning from injuries has made the headlines, this will likely ultimately be decided by running backs Marlon Mack and Leonard Fournette and their ability to help their teams reach the end zone instead of settling for field goals. Fournette comes out of his bye week looking to bounce back from being held to a season-low 40 yards 11 carries by the Texans in London. The Colts have been a middle-of-the-road defense against the run while the Jags are 29th of 32 in allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Jacksonville gets CB D.J. Hayden back, while CB Quincy Wilson will be in the mix for the Colts. There are a lot of variables in play here, but if Foles can pick up where he left off in displaying chemistry with WR D.J. Chark and Brissett is healthy enough to keep drives alive with his feet, we should see points.

Broncos at Vikings (-10/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After a win and a bye week, Brandon Allen will make his first career road start against a talented defense. The Arkansas native wasn’t picked off in his first start and threw TD passes to Courtland Sutton and rookie tight end Noah Fant in a victory over Cleveland but won’t get tackle Ja’Wuan James back and isn’t likely to have tight end Jeff Heuerman in the fold as he takes on a defense that held New York rookie Daniel Jones to just 182 yards in a 28-10 win in Week 3.

After pulling off a 28-24 upset in Dallas, the Vikings have now won five of six, dropping only a 26-23 result in Kansas City after a pair of clutch Harrison Butker field goals knocked them off to open the month. Minnesota is perfect at home this season, winning all four of its games and covering all but once, outscoring opponents 119-55. Kirk Cousins will have to make due without WR Adam Thielen, who is sidelined by a hamstring injury for the third time in four games. DT Linval Joseph is also out, as is safety Anthony Harris, so the recently reacquired Andrew Sendejo is likely to start if he can overcome his own hammy issue.

Texans at Ravens (-4.5/51.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Houston safety Tashaun Gipson returns, which give Houston a little hope that they can find a way to stifle Lamar Jackson. The Ravens haven’t scored fewer than 23 points in a game all season and poured in 49 last week in Cincinnati, their largest output since their 59-10 Week 1 rout of Miami. It’s obvious the Ravens have hit their stride and play the bully role extremely well but they’ve got someone closer to their own size in town for a visit. Rookie WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is set to stand out after overcoming an ankle injury.

The Texans won’t have WR Will Fuller V back but should have better protection for Deshaun Watson in play with tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard joining center Greg Mancz in being cleared to take part. Houston has scored at least 23 points in seven of their nine outings, including five in succession. This will be the Texans’ fourth road game in a six-week span. Coming off a bye may give a J.J. Watt-less defense more time to figure out how to keep Jackson from continuing his remarkable run that has him up over 700 rushing yards in addition to his great work with his arm. Watson vs. Jackson won’t be foiled by bad weather since it won’t be particularly windy in chilly Baltimore, where temperatures will hover in the low 40s.

Cardinals at 49ers (-9.5/43.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: The Niners look to shake off their first loss of the season on a short week but had the benefit of staying home as they look to bounce back from falling short in OT against Russell Wilson-led Seattle. They won’t get TE George Kittle back from the knee injury that sidelined him on Monday night, but did catch a break with center Weston Richburg not missing any time due to an ankle sprain. Although rookie replacement Dre Greenlaw had a big interception in OT, the 49ers will obviously miss LB Kwon Alexander against a team with a mobile QB like Kyler Murray who targets guys on short and intermediate passes.

Arizona has a chance to be competitive since Murray will be seeing a defense for the second time in less than three weeks and did his best work in that game late. The Cardinals’ defense could get Terrell Suggs back despite him not practicing and hopes to have CB Tramaine Brock out there. After getting knocked out of Monday night’s game, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to play through sore ribs, but starting RB Matt Breida won’t participate. Tevin Coleman should get additional work as a result. Week 9’s 28-25 Niners win in Glendale snapped Arizona’s eight-game winning streak in the series. San Francisco last pulled off a sweep since 2013.

Patriots (-4.5/44.5) at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: New England lost consecutive games twice last season and still managed to win another Super Bowl, but you know there are people chomping at the bit to sprinkle dirt on Tom Brady and the Pats again should they lose here. Bill Belichick is coming off a bye and has won four of five in this situation, covering four of five too. New England is 14-4 with an extra week to prepare since 2001 but will have to overcome the elements here too since freezing rain is expected to dissipate by kickoff but winds that could reach 30 miles per hour will remain ever present. Temperatures will be in the mid-30’s.

New England comes out of its bye week relatively healthy and should get rookie WR N’Keal Harry into the fold. Tight end Matt LaCosse is also potentially due back from a knee injury, so Brady should have a number of sharpened weapons in play since Julian Edelman is also completely healthy. RB Jordan Howard is out for the Eagles, while WR Alshon Jeffery won’t play either. Carson Wentz hasn’t had DeSean Jackson on board for most of the season so rookie RB Miles Sanders will have an opportunity to make a big splash and figures to get plenty of touches.

Bengals at Raiders (-12.5/48.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: After surviving the Chargers two Thursdays ago, Oakland is in position to make the playoffs. Nearly half the season remains and there’s a pack of teams in the chase, but Jon Gruden has done a great job with a young roster and will have to navigate a new role as a heavy favorite to take advantage of the schedule breaks that see Cincinnati in town this week and a visit to the Jets on tap for next week. The Bengals are winless and allowing Ryan Finley to get on-the-job training, so even though a double-digit spread seems excessive, it’s understandable. A.J. Green is still sidelined with an ankle injury, so Oakland’s depleted secondary catches a break.

Temperatures should be in the 70’s and winds won’t be a factor, so Derek Carr will have a chance to put up big numbers in what will be his final November game at the Coliseum. Tight end Derek Waller has struggled over the past few weeks and is due a bounce-back after just seven catches over the past three games. Cincinnati has failed to cover in five of its last six losses while the Raiders have covered in three straight, so you’re definitely paying the tax for that on this spread since it should ideally be closer to 10 points. The Bengals will need to get Auden Tate and Tyler Boyd off and running early in order to hang around.

[Udog]

MNF - Chiefs vs. Chargers
Tony Mejia

Kansas City (-5, 53) vs. L.A. Chargers, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Los Cargadores look to keep their fading playoff hopes alive and los Chiefs hope to wake up atop the AFC West on Tuesday morning instead of being stuck on the outside looking in with just five games left to play.

That’s the backdrop for Monday night’s Week 11 closer, which will be played in Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca, home to the three games played south of the border since the NFL started exporting its regular-season product to try and help grow its brand internationally. The first installment in 2005 drew over 100,000 fans and the first two games this decade went off without a hitch prior to last year’s cancellation of a Rams-Chiefs game that had to be relocated because or irreparably poor field conditions due to overuse.

The Kansas City Star reports that Club America, the soccer club that calls Azteca home, hasn’t played a game there in weeks and no concerts have been scheduled since August. That means field conditions will be pristine as the Patrick Mahomes show finally takes the stage in Mexico against the other L.A. team.

Even if the game were being played on the moon, Kansas City (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) would be favored here and an offense that averages 28.7 points per game would dictate a total topping 50. The Chiefs have played nothing but tight, high-scoring games over the last three weeks, losing at home to the Packers before beating the Vikings while Matt Moore filled in for Mahomes. Last week featured an upset loss in Nashville where the big consolation prize to having their defense get diced up was that the reigning MVP returned from his dislocated kneecap and played brilliantly.

Mahomes threw for three touchdowns and finished with 446 passing yards against the Titans but couldn’t suit up to play on the other side of the ball, which left him in the role of helpless bystander as Ryan Tannehill engineered a four-play, 61-yard drive to take back the lead and kicker Harrison Butker’s game-tying 52-yard field goal attempt was blocked. It wasn’t a great look for the Chiefs’ defense and special teams, which puts pressure on both units to hold up against Los Angeles (4-6, 3-6-1) in the first of two meetings against them before the season ends. Kansas City will host the regular-season finale and returns home to square off with rival Oakland on Sunday, making this the most important week of the season if they want to not stress a return to the playoffs.

The Chargers are already in must-win mode after falling just short in a 26-24 road loss in Oakland after Philip Rivers wasn’t able to execute the same fourth-quarter rally Mahomes was tasked with in Tennessee. Rivers wasn’t able to even set up a field goal attempt as the Raiders defense got stops on poorly conceived downfield passes that seemed to ignore the fact the middle of the field was open, ending the team’s first winning streak of the season after upsets of the Bears and Packers. L.A. is 2-1 SU and ATS as an underdog this season while Kansas City has won five of eight as ‘chalk’ but has covered only half the time. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers in nine of 10. Details are available below.

Rivers is 1-1 outside of the U.S., losing a 37-32 duel at Wembley against Drew Brees and the Saints in 2008 and beat the Titans 20-19 back in London last season. Kansas City beat the Lions 45-10 in its lone NFL International Games’ appearance back in 2015, but Mahomes does have plenty of experience on the Monday night stage and threw six touchdowns and three picks in a 54-51 loss to the Rams in that aforementioned relocated game that ended up being played at the L.A. Coliseum on Nov. 19 of last year. He won his MNF debut by helping lead a fourth-quarter comeback in Denver, throwing for over 300 yards. The second-year starter said he feels healthier than he’s been all season and no longer has to concern himself with nagging ankle and knee ailments.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in explosive plays with 45, so Rivers is going to have to push the ball downfield while riding Melvin Gordon and the run game. He said earlier this week that he intends to return in 2020 and entered Week 11 as the league’s leader in passing yards (2,816), attempts (364) and completions (240), which bodes well for the shootout many expect. Be sure to check out “Total Talk” below to further break down the over/under game.

Mahomes has called in kind of a “must-win” and the Chargers have made no secret of head coach Anthony Lynn having already told his team that they have to run the table if they’re going to make the playoffs, so the intensity here should be palpable and it will have a playoff-type feel given the Monday night stage and international setting. We’ll see which set of playmakers rise up and make plays, but given the number of guys who skill-wise rank among the top at their position, it should be a good show. Tyreek Hill surpassing 90 receiving yards and finding the end zone are props available at the Westgate SuperBook at -110 and have my recommendation. For a free pick on a prop, click here.

The teams took different approaches to preparing for the altitude of Mexico City, with the Chargers working out in Colorado Springs and the Chiefs not working in altitude at all. It remains to be seen who physically holds up better, but if you’re of the belief practice makes perfect, wagering on L.A. come second half may be for you. Both teams are relatively healthy. See the injury report below for details on who won’t play.

Los Angeles is looking for consecutive wins in this series for the first time since sweeping the regular-season meetings in 2012 and 13. Mike Williams caught a touchdown pass with four seconds left and then hauled in the two-point conversion last December in Week 15, giving the Chargers a 29-28 win. Mexico may deliver an equally higher-scoring contest and will provide a fun setting to witness just how far Mahomes can throw a football.

TOTAL TALK

The ‘over’ was on a 6-0 run in primetime games the last two weeks but in the two contests played under the lights in Week 11, bettors riding the low side were treated to a pair of clear-cut ‘under’ tickets. Will Monday’s finale complete the trifecta?

Chris David offers up his thoughts and lean on the total for this AFC West matchup.

“This total opened 49 ½ last week and as of Monday morning, most books are holding 53 and that’s a bit of a head-scratcher even though I understand that the Chiefs-Over combination is one of the most popular combinations for bettors,” said David. “When it comes to ‘over’ tickets, it takes two to tango most times and the Chargers have been very inconsistent offensively this season, often leaving points off the board with careless turnovers.”

While Kansas City has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season, Los Angeles is 7-3 to the ‘under’ in 10 games. This has been an ‘over’ series recently with four of the last six going high, which includes a 2-0 record last season. The pair split those games, with the visitor coming out on top in each contest and we saw 66 and 57 combined points scored.

Even though is technically a neutral site game, the Chargers have been deemed the home team. David dug up the numbers on the Chiefs outside of Arrowhead and he believes Kansas City’s offense will travel well for this international series matchup.

The ‘over’ is 2-1 in games played in Mexico City and 2-2 this season in games played overseas in London. The high side has connected in three straight Chiefs games and six of the last eight involving them, while the Chargers come off surrendering their second-highest scoring output of the season in Oakland. Skies will be clear and temperatures in Mexico City are expected to be in the mid-60s, so both teams will only have to deal with altitude as far as the elements are concerned.

“We all know Mahomes is a special talent and what we’ve seen from the kid and the Chiefs on the road is ridiculous in his short career. Since he took over as starter in 2018, Kansas City has averaged 36.1 PPG in 13 games away from Arrowhead and the ‘over’ has gone 10-3 in those matchups. The lowest scoring outcome for the offense during this span were 27 twice and 28 points, meaning KC has posted 30-plus points 11 times. The Chargers defense just isn’t the same without safety Derwin James and even when healthy last season, Mahomes notched six touchdowns in two games against Los Angeles. The team total on the Chiefs has been juiced up to 28 ½ and I fully expect Kansas City to jump that number tonight.”

LINE MOVEMENT

Kansas City Chiefs
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 1/2 to 2/7
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 11/5 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 5/1 to 12/1

Los Angeles Chargers
Projected season win total: 10 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win AFC West (pre-Week 1/current): 11/5 to 12/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 7/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 14/1 to 100/1

INJURY CONCERNS

Chargers tackle Russell Okung was downgraded to doubtful and likely won’t be available, making him this game’s biggest question mark. The L.A. defense will have DT Justin Jones (shoulder) and LB Denzel Perryman (knee) available to try and provide some resistance against the Chiefs. Safety Roderick Teamer is questionable. James remains out and fellow safety Adrian Phillips is in the process of coming off IR in a few weeks but also won’t be available here .

The Chiefs will have their projected starting offensive line available for the first time since Week 2 since Eric Fisher (groin), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle), Mitchell Schwartz (ankle) and Cam Erving (ankle) have all been practicing and will return. Defensive ends Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah are out, but Frank Clark (neck) is in. WR Sammy Watkins (groin) should also be in the mix.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Chiefs 9-1 SU, 4-4 ATS last 10, OVER 5-3)
12/13/18 Chargers 29-28 vs. Chiefs (LA +3.5, 54)
9/9/18 Chiefs 38-28 at Chargers (KC +3.5, 48)
12/16/17 Chiefs 30-13 vs. Chargers (KC -1, 47)
9/24/17 Chiefs 24-10 vs. Chargers (KC -3, 47.5)
1/1/17 Chiefs 37-27 at Chargers (KC -5.5, 45)
9/11/16 Chiefs 33-27 vs. Chargers (SD +6.5, 45.5)
12/13/15 Chiefs 10-3 vs. Chargers (SD +10.5, 44)
11/22/15 Chiefs 33-3 at Chargers (KC -3, 45)
12/28/14 Chiefs 19-7 vs. Chargers (KC -2.5, 42.5)
10/19/14 Chiefs 23-20 at Chargers (KC +3, 46)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 12 numbers featured the Rams and Ravens being a pick’em next Monday night, but both of these teams will be enjoying a bye week upon their return from Mexico.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 11 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 8-4-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 100-57-1
Against the Spread 68-86-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 85-72-1
Against the Spread 67-87-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 80-77-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7

The People Are Champs

-- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.

Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.

The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.

As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.

The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.

There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.

After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.

-- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.

-- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

-- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.

-- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.

-- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.

[Udog]

NFL Week 12 opening odds and early action: Patriots already land $53K bet vs Cowboys
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady has New England tied for the NFL's best SU and ATS records, at 9-1 and 7-3 respectively. The Patriots opened -6.5 at home against the Cowboys in a marquee Week 13 contest.

Week 12 of the NFL season features America’s team against the best team of this millennium. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England regained its winning form after a bye week that followed its first loss of the year. The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) went off as 4.5-point favorites at Philadelphia and notched a 17-10 victory.

Dallas rebounded from a Week 10 home loss to Minnesota, though Jason Garrett’s troops got a stern test from a Detroit outfit missing Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys (6-4 SU and ATS) claimed a 35-27 win, narrowly cashing as 7.5-point road favorites.

“We opened Patriots -6.5 and are still there, despite taking a bet of $53,500 on New England already,” Murray said. “This will be one of the highest-handle games of the year to date.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Like New England, San Francisco rebounded from its first setback of the season, though Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. got a fight from Arizona. The 49ers (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) won 36-26, returning a fumble for a touchdown on the game’s last play to push as 10-point home favorites.

Green Bay is coming off its bye week with an 8-2 SU mark, and it’s tied for the league lead at 7-3 ATS. In Week 9, the Packers topped Carolina 24-16 laying 5 points at home.

“The Sunday night game will also be a huge-handle game,” Murray said. “I’m expecting a lot of public support for the ‘dog. The 49ers are very banged up, and the Packers are coming in off their bye. I could see this number drifting closer to pick.”

Indeed, shortly after opening the Niners -4, the line tightened to 49ers -3 (even).

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

Indianapolis lost starting quarterback Andrew Luck to a surprise retirement two weeks before the season began. Yet through 11 weeks, the Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are tied atop the AFC South after rolling over Jacksonville 33-13 as 2.5-point home faves Sunday.

Houston gave up sole possession of first in the division with a dud of a Week 11 performance. The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) mustered only one score – a fourth-quarter TD after trailing 34-0 – in a 41-7 loss at Baltimore catching 4 points.

This battle for the division lead kicks off Week 12, as it's the Thursday night game.

“Our look-ahead line was Texans -5.5, but that was before the Texans got crushed by the Ravens and the Colts put together an impressive win over the Jaguars,” Murray said. “Houston has struggled in this home-favorite role in recent seasons.”

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Drew Brees missed five games for New Orleans, but his team still owns a three-game lead in the NFC South. In Week 11, Brees and the Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) dumped Tampa Bay 34-17 giving 5 points on the road.

Carolina made a 5-1 SU and ATS run to start turning heads, then dropped two in a row SU and ATS. The Panthers (5-5 SU and ATS) were 3.5-point home favorites Sunday against Atlanta and came up with a mere fourth-quarter field goal in a 29-3 beatdown.

“We opened Saints -9 and quickly moved up to -9.5,” Murray said. “New Orleans will be a very popular public side included in many parlays and moneyline parlays.”

[BettorsChat]

Mitchell Trubisky is not the answer to the Chicago Bears quarterback issue. Once again Chicago has a really good defense with an inept offense especially compared to how they played last year.

[Udog]

Mitchell Trubisky is not the answer to the Chicago Bears quarterback issue. Once again Chicago has a really good defense with an inept offense especially compared to how they played last year.

I wonder if they're looking at the kid taking the snaps at Wisconsin. He strikes me as a good fit for the Bears.

[Udog]

Jack Coan 6'3" 221 and accurate.

[BettorsChat]

Jack Coan 6'3" 221 and accurate.

They would have to trade up more than likely to get him.