NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Tues., Nov. 12 - Sat., Nov. 16)

[Udog]

Georgia at Auburn
Brian Edwards

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 12 Auburn Tigers
Venue/Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -3, Total 41.5

All eyes from across the nation Saturday will be on Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Auburn will play host to Georgia in a crucial contest with College Football Playoff ramifications for a slew of schools from Oregon to Utah and beyond. In fact, Auburn’s bitter in-state rival, Alabama, needs the Tigers to win as much as anyone.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Georgia (8-1 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) installed as a three-point road favorite with a total of 41. The Tigers were +130 on the money line.

UGA is ranked fourth in the latest CFP rankings, one spot ahead of Alabama. The Bulldogs are 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road. Kirby Smart’s club won 30-6 at Vanderbilt in its season opener, and it won 43-14 at Tennessee back on Oct. 5.

Georgia has won three consecutive games since suffering its lone defeat to South Carolina. The Gamecocks went into Athens as 21-point underdogs on Oct. 12 and won a 20-17 decision in double overtime. Since then, UGA has won vs. Kentucky (21-0), vs. Florida (24-17 in Jacksonville) and vs. Missouri (27-0).

Junior QB Jake Fromm carried his team to victory against the Gators, who stuffed Georgia’s ground attack (holding the Bulldogs to 3.2 yards per carry on 37 attempts) but couldn’t buy a stop on third down. Thanks to his poise in the pocket and an outstanding effort from his offensive line, Fromm helped the Bulldogs convert 12-of-18 third-down attempts.

The Houston County HS product from Warner Robbins, GA., completed 20-of-30 passes for 279 yards and two TDs without an interception vs. UF. Lawrence Cager hauled in seven receptions for 132 yards and one TD.

Smart’s team caught a big break last week when Missouri senior QB Kelly Bryant was unable to play between the hedges due to a hamstring injury. The UGA defense limited Mizzou to 198 yards of total offense, and the Bulldogs won 27-0 as 19-point home ‘chalk.’

Fromm completed 13-of-29 passes for 173 yards and two TDs without an interception. Cager had six catches for 93 yards, while George Pickens had five receptions for 67 yards and two TDs. D’Andre Swift ran for 83 yards on 12 totes.

For the season, Fromm has connected on 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,858 yards with a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Fromm hasn’t thrown an interception to anyone not named Israel Mukuamu, the South Carolina cornerback who picked Fromm off three times.

Cager has 32 receptions for 470 yards and four TDs, while Pickens has 29 catches for 389 yards and four TDs. Demetris Robertson has caught 20 balls for 229 yards and three TDs, and Dominick Blaylock has 12 grabs for 209 yards and two TDs.

Swift has 921 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 6.3 yards-per-carry average. Brian Herrien has run for 366 yards and five TDs, averaging 5.2 YPC.

Georgia is ranked fifth in the nation in total defense, 17th at defending the pass, fourth in run defense and second in scoring ‘D,’ allowing merely 10.1 points per game.

Auburn (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) is unbeaten in four home games with a 3-1 spread record this year. Gus Malzahn’s club is off a 20-14 non-covering home win over Ole Miss as a 17-point favorite. The Tigers were off last week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Bulldogs.

They enjoyed a healthy 507-266 advantage over the Rebels in total offense, but kicker Anders Carlson missed three field goals. True freshman QB Bo Nix completed 30-of-44 passes for 340 yards, and he also ran for a TD. Another true freshman, RB D.J. Williams, ran for 93 yards and one score on 24 carries. Anthony Schwartz had nine catches for 89 yards.

Auburn started the season 5-0 both SU and ATS, producing quality wins vs. Oregon (27-21 at Jerry World in Arlington, TX.), vs. Tulane (24-6) and at Texas A&M (28-20). The Tigers forced four turnovers and stopped a fake punt at Florida on Oct. 5, but Nix threw three interceptions and the Gators handed them their first defeat by a 24-13 count.

Auburn’s only other loss came at unbeaten and top-ranked LSU, which won 23-20 but failed to cover the number as an 11.5-point home favorite. The biggest lead of the game either way was four points until Joe Burrow scored on a seven-yard TD scamper with 13:29 remaining. Auburn trimmed the deficit to three when Nix found Seth Williams for a five-yard scoring strike with 2:32 left, but the Bayou Bengals didn’t give the ball back the rest of the way.

Nix has been up and down, which is to be expected from any true freshman starting at QB in the SEC. He’s been better at home, throwing four TD passes without an interception. For the season, Nix has completed 56.5 percent of his throws for 1,798 yards with a 12/6 TD-INT ratio. His stats – 214 rushing yards and five TDs with a 3.1 YPC average – don’t necessarily reflect it, but Nix has speed and can make plays with his legs.

JaTarvious Whitlow was second in the SEC in rushing yards when he injured his knee at Florida. He hasn’t played since then, but he might return vs. UGA. Whitlow, who has a team-best 553 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 4.9 YPC average, is listed as ‘questionable.’

Williams has played in only four games, but he’s taken advantage of that playing time. He had 130 rushing yards on just 13 carries at LSU. Williams has 303 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.5 YPC average.

Nix’s favorite target is WR Seth Williams, who has 35 receptions for 569 yards and eight TDs. Schwartz has 23 catches for 305 yards and one TD, while Eli Stove has caught 27 balls for 247 yards and two TDs. Schwartz also get touches on some gadget plays, rushing for 112 yards and two TDs on eight carries.

Auburn is ranked 28th in the country in total defense, 20th at stopping the run and 13th in scoring ‘D’ (17.4 PPG). The Tigers have two of the country’s top pass rushers in Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown. Davidson missed the Ole Miss game with a lower-back injury and is listed as ‘questionable,’ but he’s undoubtedly going to give it a go Saturday. It’s just a matter of how long he can last.

Davidson has 34 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, three QB hurries and two forced fumbles. Brown has 37 tackles, four sacks, four TFL’s, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, three passes broken up and one QB hurry.

Auburn’s leading tackler, senior safety Jeremiah Dinson, is also listed as ‘questionable’ after sitting out the win over Ole Miss due to an undisclosed injury. Dinson has produced 61 tackles, 2.5 TFL’s, two sacks, one interception, one forced fumble and one PBU.

Georgia starting OG Justin Shaffer is ‘questionable’ with a neck injury. He has missed three consecutive games. Another starter, sophomore CB Tyson Campbell, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a toe injury.

This rivalry doesn’t need any extra vitriol, but it’s certainly there this year. Georgia won a 27-10 decision over Auburn as a 13.5-point home favorite last season. The bigger story, however, at least from the Auburn point of view, was how UGA faked a field goal up by 17 late in the fourth quarter.

It didn’t sit well with players on the Auburn squad, and it’s been a talking point on The Plains all week long. They think it was a disrespectful decision on Smart’s part, and it’s a driving force for the Tigers in their quest for revenge this weekend.

Fromm completed 13-of-20 passes for 193 yards and two TDs with one interception in the 27-10 triumph. Swift ran for 186 yards and one TD on 17 carries.

When these teams met at Auburn in 2017, the Tigers blasted the Bulldogs 40-17 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Kerryon Johnson was the catalyst with 233 yards from scrimmage (167 rushing, 66 receiving). However, Johnson wasn’t 100 percent healthy three weeks later at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, where UGA exacted revenge in a 28-7 victory.

The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Tigers, 3-2 in their home games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 50.1 PPG. This is Auburn’s lowest total of the year. The previous high was 47 in a 56-23 home win over Mississippi St.

The ‘under’ is 7-2 overall for UGA, 1-1 in its two road assignments. The Bulldogs have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight games and six of their past seven. Their games have averaged combined scores of 43.8 PPG. This is UGA’s lowest total of the season, as its previous high was 45.5 points in a 21-0 win vs. Kentucky. The ‘under’ has hit in all three Georgia games that have had a total in the 40s.

The ‘under’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip in the last six games of this rivalry. UGA is 5-1 both SU and ATS in the past six head-to-head meetings.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Nation’s Best ATS teams: Ohio State and UL-Lafayette are both 8-1 ATS. Auburn, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Tulane are 7-2 versus the number. Best of the Rest: Navy (6-2), Minnesota (6-2-1) and then Clemson, FAU, CMU, Illinois and Western Kentucky are 7-3 ATS.

-- Nation’s Worst ATS squads: Akron (0-10), UMASS (1-9), Vanderbilt (1-8), Nebraska (1-8), Texas State (1-7), Arkansas (2-8), Ohio (2-8) and FIU (2-8).

-- Ohio State won its appeal of star DE Chase Young’s four-game suspension from the NCAA. The suspension has been reduced to two games, meaning he’ll miss one more game Saturday at Rutgers. Young, who leads the nation in sacks with 13.5, will return for next week’s showdown at The ‘Shoe vs. Penn State.

-- Wake Forest WR Sage Surratt is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Surratt is the ACC’s leader in receptions (66), receiving yards (1,001) and TD catches with 11. Also, Wake Forest senior WR Scotty Washington is expected to miss a second straight game Saturday at Clemson. Washington has 35 catches for 607 yards and seven TDs.

-- Vanderbilt Riley Neal will return from a concussion Saturday and start at QB vs. Kentucky. Mo Hasan (concussion) is ‘doubtful’ against the Wildcats, who are 10-point road favorites in Nashville. Kentucky WR/QB Lynn Bowden is listed as ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury, but he’s expected to play nonetheless. With UK’s hoops team dealing with injuries, there’s been some discussion of Bowden joining John Calipari’s squad. Mark Stoops has given his approval once the football season concludes, so that’s something to keep an eye on in a few weeks. Vandy’s Derek Mason needs a win over the Wildcats in the worst way for his job security.

-- California was 4-0 and in a tight game with Arizona State when QB Chase Garbers went down with a shoulder injury in late September. Garbers, who had an 8/2 TD-INT ratio, has been cleared to return and will start in Saturday’s home game vs. USC. The Golden Bears, who are four-point home underdogs, have gone 6-2 ATS as home ‘dogs during Justin Wilcox’s tenure. They’re 15-6 ATS in 21 games as underdogs at any venue on Wilcox’s watch.

-- Georgia State star QB Dan Ellington is ‘out’ Saturday vs. Appalachian State due to a knee injury. Ellington has carried the Panthers to a 6-3 SU record and a 5-2-2 ATS ledger. The senior signal caller has 1,813 passing yards with an 18/4 TD-INT ratio. Ellington also has 603 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.8 YPC average.

-- After missing last week’s home loss to USC, Arizona State true freshman QB Jayden Daniels practiced Tuesday and was upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game at Oregon State.

-- Florida, a 6.5-point road favorite Saturday at Missouri, has compiled a 4-1 spread record in five games as a road favorite during Dan Mullen’s two-year tenure. Mizzou QB Kelly Bryant (hamstring) was upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. UF late Tuesday, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t note how the Tigers upgraded him to ‘probable’ in the middle of last week’s preparations for UGA. Then on Saturday morning of last week, Bryant was downgrade to ‘doubtful.’ We aren’t implying he’s not ready to go against the Gators, but we won’t depend on Barry Odom for accurate injury information moving forward. Mullen said earlier this week that he’s ‘hopeful’ UF star DE Jabari Zuniga will be ready at Missouri. However, bettors can’t count on that. Zuniga has attempted to return from the ankle injury he suffered at Kentucky in September twice (vs. LSU and vs. UGA), only to suffer setbacks in each instance.

-- Indiana has covered the spread in four consecutive games as a road underdog. The Hoosiers have had two weeks to prep for Saturday’s game at Penn State. The Nittany Lions are in vintage sandwich spot, facing IU one week after a loss to unbeaten Minnesota and one week before playing at undefeated Ohio State. PSU is 18-14-2 ATS in 34 games as a home ‘chalk’ on James Franklin’s watch.

-- Akron fell to 0-10 both straight up and against the spread in Tuesday’s 42-14 loss to Eastern Michigan as a 17-point home underdog. The Eagles covered in the first quarter (-4), first half (-8.5 or 9), for the game and for adjusted sides like -27.5 for a +315 return. The Zips will try to get their first win at Miami (OH.) next Wednesday on Nov. 20. They close the season at home vs. Ohio on Tuesday, Nov. 26. EMU improved to 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS. The Eagles are at No. Illinois next Tuesday and then host Kent State on Friday, Nov. 29.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-2 overall for UMass after cashing in seven of its last eight games. The Minutemen play Saturday at Northwestern, which went into last week with the nation’s worst scoring offense. After producing their second-highest output of the year in a 24-22 home loss to Purdue, the Wildcats allowed Akron to overtake them at No. 130 out of 130 FBS team in scoring offense. Nevertheless, Northwestern has still seen the ‘under’ go 6-3 overall. The Wildcats are 41-point home favorites, and the total is 56. They’ve only scored 35 points in their last five games combined. Their biggest scoring outburst this season came in a 30-14 home win over UNLV in Week 2.

-- Florida State star RB Cam Akers is ‘out’ of Saturday’s home game vs. Alabama State due to an undisclosed injury.

-- Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich hasn’t named a starter for Saturday’s game at UNLV. The Rainbow Warriors are seven-point road favorites for the Mtn. West showdown at Sam Boyd Stadium. Rolovich benched QB Cole McDonald in favor of redshirt freshman Chevan Cordeiro in last week’s 42-40 home win over San Jose State. Cordeiro responded in his first career start, completing 23-of-31 passes for 309 yards and three TDs. He also ran for 55 yards and a pair of scores. McDonald threw for 3,875 yards with a 36/10 TD-INT ratio in 2018, when he also ran for 359 yards and four TDs. In 2019, McDonald has 2,796 passing yards and a 25/12 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 353 yards and four TDs. However, the guess here is that Rolovich sticks with Cordeiro, and Hawaii is in good shape either way because both dudes can perform at a high level.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 12
Joe Williams

College Football Week 12 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-9
Against the Spread 34-21

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 27-28
Against the Spread 27-28

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-26-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 567-151
Against the Spread 366-341-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 456-258
Against the Spread 345-358-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 345-366-13

The largest underdogs to win straight up
West Virginia (+14, ML +450) at Kansas State, 24-20
Rice (+13.5, ML +425) at Middle Tennessee, 31-28
Syracuse (+9, ML +280) at Duke, 49-6
Kent State (+6, ML +200) vs. Buffalo, 30-27

The largest favorites to cover
Army (-36) vs. VMI, 47-6
Clemson (-34.5) vs. Wake Forest, 52-3
Oregon (-27) vs. Arizona, 34-6
Boise State (-26.5) vs. New Mexico, 42-9

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
--Cincinnati fell behind 10-0 at halftime at South Florida, and the Bulls never trailed...until :00 on the clock. The Bearcats kicked a 37-yard game-winning field goal at the buzzer to crush moneyline bettors of the Bulls, 20-17. USF improved to 6-3 ATS across the past nine outings. The 'under' is now 3-1-1 in the past five for the Bulls. ... Navy hit the road for their annual rivalry game and they were routed 52-20 at Notre Dame. The Middies entered the game ranked inside the Top 25, but that will be short-lived. ... Memphis got out to a bit of a sluggish start, but they recovered at Houston. The Tigers fell behind 17-7 after 15 minutes, but the Tigers outscored the Cougars 35-3 in the next two quarters to run away with the win. The total in this one had an interesting twist for some, too (see below).

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Clemson rolled Wake Forest in Death Valley by a 52-3 count. A lot of people might discount the Demon Deacons, but they were trying to play after losing their leading WR Sage Surrattt, as well as their third-leading WR Scottie Washington. Either way, the Tigers were able to win their 11th of the season, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six since that near-miss at UNC back on Sept. 28, which appears to have served as a wake-up call. ... Duke used to be the doormat of the ACC, but head coach David Cutcliffe turned that around. However, injuries and inconsistent play have the Blue Devils reeling, and on the brink of missing a bowl. A very marginal Syracuse side routed them 49-6 at Wallace Wade, and now Duke needs wins at Wake and home to Miami to go bowling. ... Louisville earned bowl eligibility with a 34-20 win in chilly Raleigh over North Carolina State, 34-20. Head coach Dave Doeren's group find themselves in the same shape as their Triangle rivals from Duke, needing to win the final two to become bowl eligible. The road isn't as daunting, with trips to Georgia Tech and home to UNC on the remaining sked. The Wolfpack are a dismal 1-8 ATS across the past nine.

BIG TEN
-- Indiana gave Penn State a nice run, but the Hoosiers came up short in a 34-27 loss in Happy Valley. IU has covered three in a row, and six of the past seven. ... Michigan State-Michigan has been rather close at times in recent years, but not in 2019. Head coach Mark Dantonio's seat is Hades hot, as the Wolverines spanked their rivals from East Lansing by a 44-10 count. Michigan took care of the 'over' (43) themselves, as the Wolverines covered for the fourth straight game, and sixth time in the past seven. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five and 6-2 in the past eight for Michigan. ... Minnesota headed to Iowa by a 23-19 score, as the boat is taking on a little water. The boat is also not sailing back to the Twin Cities with Floyd of Rosedale, as that remains in I-City. The Hawkeyes have covered three in a row, and the 'under' is 7-1-1 in the past nine for the Hawkeyes, too. ... Ohio State routed Rutgers in a 56-21 win in New Jersey. What's surprising by this is the Scarlet Knights are the first opponent to score more than twice in a game against the Buckeyes since Week 1 when FAU did it at Ohio Stadium, and that was also the last time the Buckeyes failed to cover.

BIG 12
-- West Virginia picked up a 24-20 win at Kansas State, as the Mountaineers snapped a five-game losing streak with the surprising win. They still have to win their final two to become bowl eligible. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for West Virginia. ... Texas was tripped up on the road against Iowa State, falling 23-21. While the Longhorns covered as touchdown underdogs, they slipped to 6-4 SU. They're now 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and the 'under' has cashed in the past two for the 'Horns. ... Baylor fired out to a 28-3 lead at home against Oklahoma, but QB Jalen Hurts led the Sooners all the way back in the biggest comeback victory in school history, and without WR CeeDee Lamb. When the dust cleared it was 34-31 in favor of the road team. While Bears side bettors still managed the cover, it was a bitter pill for anyone holding moneyline tickets for Baylor.

CONFERENCE USA
-- Marshall handled Louisiana Tech in Huntington on Friday, 31-10. The Thundering Herd handed the Bulldogs just their second loss of the season, and the Herd pulled into a tie with FAU for the top spot in the East Division. Marshall is now 3-1 ATS across the past four after going 1-5 ATS in the first six to start. ... Rice picked up its first victory of the season after nine straight setbacks, surprising Middle Tennessee by a 31-28 count. The Owls snapped a four-game non-cover skid, too. ... Southern Miss posted a 36-17 win at Texas-San Antonio, and this one was a two-way bad beat. See the recap below. ... Alabama-Birmingham took care of Texas-El Paso by a 36-17 score on the road. UAB snapped a two-game mini-skid and power outage, improving to 7-3 SU/ATS. They're 4-0 SU/ATS in their four home games against FBS opponents at home, and the over is 3-0 in their past three home contests.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Central Michigan and Ball State played a very entertaining 45-44 game which went to the Chippewas. They fell behind 27-11 at halftime, but used 34 second-half points to win for the fifth time in the past six games while also moving to 5-1 ATS across the span. The 'over' has connected in six straight for CMU, and nine of 11 games overall. They'll finish up against Toledo in the season finale on Nov. 29. That was the only MACtion on Saturday, as all of the other games took place mid-week. Road teams ended up 3-2 SU, with underdogs going 3-2 ATS. There was a bad beat in the Thursday battle between Buffalo-Kent State (see below).

MOUNTAIN WEST
-- The Air Force-Colorado State game had a crazy finish. If you were holding a Colorado State (+10.5) ticket, see below...although you already know what happened. ... Hawaii returned to the mainland and picked up a 21-7 win at UNLV, a rare under result for the Warriors. The last under for Hawaii was also in the state of Nevada against the Wolf Pack in Reno back on Sept. 28. Since then the Warriors threw up five consecutive over results. ... New Mexico-Boise State figured to be a little more competitive than expected with a third-string QB in there for the Cowboys. QB Jaylon Henderson made his first start with QBs Hank Bachmeier and Chase Cord nursing lower-body injuries. The last time Boise State used three different starting signal callers in a season was 1993. Now, they have three starting QBs with a win. Henderson and the Broncos rolled to a 42-9 win, as the Lobos slipped to 2-8 SU. UNM is also 2-7 ATS across the past nine, while the 'under' is 6-1 in the past seven for the Lobos.

PAC-12
-- USC-Californa was expected to be a close contest, especially with QB Chase Garbers (shoulder) back under center for the first time since late September. But he was knocked out again, and the Trojans rolled to a 41-17 road win. After opening the season 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road, the Trojans have rattled off three straight wins on the road while going 1-1-1 ATS. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four for SC, too. ... Utah is doing its best to stay in the chase for a playoff spot, as they routed UCLA by a 49-3 count. Most shops saw this total push as a result. The Utes have won and covered six in a row since a 30-23 loss at USC on Sept. 20. ... The Pac-12 have two potential playoff contenders, as Oregon also kept hope alive with a convincing 34-6 win over Arizona. The Ducks are 9-0 SU since a neutral-site loss to Auburn on Aug. 31. They're also 4-1 ATS across the past five.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Alabama had the biggest headline in their win over Mississippi State, but it wasn't because of the results on the scoreboard. By now everyone knows QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip and fracture in the loss, and his regular season is over, and perhaps his college career. Now it's in the hands of QB Mac Jones to finish up the season. Obviously the Crimson Tide still have plenty left to play for, and Jones will get a tune-up against Western Carolina next week before battling Auburn in the regular season finale. ... The Tigers fell 21-14 to Georgia, showing a lot of heart after falling behind 21-0 after three quarters. However, the Tigers were unable to make it all the way back. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past thee for Auburn, but they're now 2-3 SU/ATS across the past five after a 5-0 SU/ATS start. ... South Carolina-Texas A&M was a battle between a banged up unit and a healthy unit, and it showed. The Aggies throttled the Gamecocks 30-6 at Kyle Field in a low-scoring game. The Aggies have won four in a row to move to 7-3 SU, and they're 3-1 ATS across the past four. It doesn't get any easier, as they have to face Georgia and LSU, both on the road.

SUN BELT
-- Georgia State gave Appalachian State a nice little run for a while, but the Mountaineers showed why they're the first Sun Belt team ever in the CFP rankings. The Mountaineers fell behind 21-14 after one quarter, but outscored the Panthers 42-6 over the final 45 to win it by 29 and keep their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl game alive. ... Troy posted an emphatic 63-27 win at Texas State, keeping their hopes of a bowl game alive. They improved to 5-5 SU, and they have covered back-to-back games for the first time this season. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, too, as the Trojans have scored 33 or more points in five straight outings. ... Georgia Southern took care of Louisiana-Monroe by a 51-29 count, as the 'over' connected. We had just 45 points on the board with a total of 57.5, but the teams combined for 35 points in the final quarter as the over easily hit. The Eagles, the only team to slay App State this season, are now 5-1 SU across the past six while going 3-1 ATS in the past four. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the past three.

Bad Beats

-- There was still 4:59 left on the clock when the total changed from 'under' to 'over' in Memphis-Houston, so it wasn't your definition 'bad beat'. However, with 4:59 to go, the Cougars blocked a punt and recovered it in the end zone to close the lead of the Tigers to 45-27, pushing the total over by a half-point.

-- With 1:22 to go, and Colorado State driving, Air Force had a 99-yard interception return for touchdown to take a 38-21 lead. Instead of making it a one-score game, and a certain cover for the Rams, they ended up going down 17 and they never recovered.

-- The Southern Miss-UTSA game had a total of 55.5 and USM was favored by 17. The Golden Eagles were never covering until 4:45 to go, when USM took a 36-17 lead. The Roadrunners fought back, getting inside the red zone. However, they failed to get a score in the final minute, crushing UTSA side bettors and 'over' bettors alike.

-- Lastly, on Thursday night it was a bad beat if you had Buffalo laying the points. The Bulls were up 27-6 heading into the fourth quarter, and under (55.5) bettors were feeling pretty good about themselves, too. The Golden Flashes erased the 21-point lead and they forced OT, tied 27-27. The Golden Flashes ended up taking it 30-27 in overtime, stunning under bettors and Buffalo side bettors alike.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 12
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 12th weekend of the college football. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Western Michigan (PK) 37, Ohio 34: Western Michigan led 10-0 at halftime, but Ohio took a 14-10 lead eight minutes into the third quarter. A back-and-forth finish followed with the game eventually knotted 24-24 with 10 minutes to go. Western Michigan put together a touchdown drive to lead by seven and then stopped Ohio inside the 10-yard-line to seemingly wrap up the game. The Bobcats still had all three timeouts and got the ball back with 47 seconds to work with. Nathan Rourke delivered four straight completions to find the end zone with nine seconds to go and the Bobcats opted to kick to play overtime. Ohio had to settle for a field goal going first in the extra session and in just three plays, the Broncos got the win with a touchdown.

Northern Illinois (+1½) 31, Toledo 28: The Huskies were in command with a 28-7 edge through three quarters, but Toledo put a scoring drive together to cut the margin to 14 points. A botched punt attempt provided the break the Rockets needed to get back in the game, inheriting great field position and closing the margin to seven points two plays later. Toledo would force another punt on defense and went 91 yards to tie the game with about five minutes remaining. The slight underdog Huskies were able to milk most of the clock and come away with the go-ahead field goal in the final minute and the Rockets ran out of time despite eventually reaching the 26-yard-line.

Kent State (+6½) 30, Buffalo 27: The Bulls had a commanding 27-6 edge in the fourth quarter before Kent State turned in perhaps the comeback of the season. The Flashes scored two touchdowns in the span of 27 seconds of game clock in the middle of the fourth quarter thanks to an onside kick recovery. The Flashes were set to get the ball back quickly after forcing a 3-and-out and did even better, blocking the punt to start at the 4-yard-line. Despite the field position, it came down to 4th-and-goal but Dustin Crum got the completion for the tying score. Buffalo again was held to a punt and now with a chance to win, Kent State had possession with about two minutes remaining, getting the 44-yard field goal as time expired after consecutive timeouts.

Pittsburgh (-4½) 34, North Carolina 27: The Panthers had a 24-10 edge into the fourth quarter, but the Tar Heels hit a few big plays to quickly tie the game. Slowing down the pace, Pittsburgh drained nearly seven minutes off the clock before kicking a field goal that wasn’t going to be enough against the home favorite spread. The Tar Heels reached the red zone late in the game but went backwards and facing 4th-and-12, kicked for overtime. Pittsburgh was backed up, but converted on 3rd-and-14 and eventually scored seven going first in overtime, allowing for the favorite to have a shot to still cover. North Carolina converted 4th-and-4 on its overtime possession, but took a sack and was left with 4th-and-16 and the final throw fell incomplete.

Northwestern (-38) 45, Massachusetts 6: This game got a bit more coverage than it deserved based on the oddity of the line with the low-scoring Wildcats a massive favorite. The line climbed as high as -41½ on a Northwestern team that had scored 100 total points over the first nine games. The first touchdown came on a field goal block as the Wildcats didn’t score on offense until 22 minutes into the game and stayed well short of the spread through three quarters with a 24-6 edge. Northwestern would take over in the fourth quarter with three consecutive touchdowns incredibly giving the Wildcats a 39-point edge with just over five minutes remaining to slip past the opening and closing numbers though there were plenty of successful UMass tickets in the middle. The Minutemen were a threat to spoil it, but only could reach the Northwestern 6-yard-line on the final play as time expired.

UAB (-14) 37, UTEP 10: The Blazers took a 23-0 lead in this game, but UTEP got on the board just before halftime and by the early fourth quarter had closed to within 20 points, or a touchdown short of covering. The Miners reached UAB territory on its next drive but opted to go for it on 4th-and-7 and fell incomplete. UAB didn’t look like a threat to add points, but on 3rd-and-long connected for a 40-yard touchdown to make a late UTEP drive inside the UAB 5-yard-line meaningless.

Oklahoma State (-18) 31, Kansas 13: The Cowboys cruised to a comfortable win over Kansas and led 31-0 through three quarters. The Jayhawks didn’t go away however with a touchdown halfway through the fourth quarter after an Oklahoma State field goal miss, but an unsuccessful 2-point try kept Kansas down by 25. Oklahoma State went 51 yards on its next drive, but still wound up punting and Kansas was able to put another touchdown in with just over a minute to go, bringing the margin to 19. The Jayhawks kicked this time and the 18-point final matched the closing spread though -17 or -17½ remained common numbers that still cashed.

TCU (-4) 33, Texas Tech 31: An early 17-0 edge for TCU disappeared with a 27-16 margin at halftime and Texas Tech leading 28-27 through three quarters. The spread consistently climbed higher for the road team throughout the week after opening with the Red Raiders as a one-point favorite at some outlets. Field goals were exchanged early in the fourth quarter, then TCU burned a significant amount of clock and reached the Texas Tech 4-yard-line before offensive pass interference pushed the Frogs back. Ultimately, TCU had to settle for a short go-ahead field goal rather than a touchdown that could have cleared the favorite spread. After a pair of punts, Texas Tech would get the ball back with two minutes to work with but fumbled away its opportunity on 1st down.

Wisconsin (-14) 37, Nebraska 21: The Cornhuskers came to play in this game but had a few tough breaks, allowing a kickoff return touchdown while also giving up a short field score after an interception as Wisconsin led 27-14 at halftime and 34-14 late in the third quarter despite Nebraska winding up with more yardage in the game and having little trouble moving the ball against the highly regarded Wisconsin defense. Nebraska snuck within the spread with a touchdown late in the third quarter to trail by 13 after missing a field goal earlier in the quarter, but in the fourth quarter, the Huskers had drives of 81 and 74 yards that both come up empty on 4th-and-goal failures. In-between those long scoreless efforts for Nebraska, Wisconsin added a field goal to win by 16.

Iowa (-3) 23, Minnesota 19: Iowa was in command in the first half with a 20-3 edge, but Minnesota managed a field goal just before halftime and going first after the break the Gophers looked the part of a comeback threat with a quick touchdown to close to within seven. A long scoring drought on both sides followed and included what will be an infamous moment for P.J. Fleck as he was hit with an unsportsmanlike conduct call for running on to the field to check on injured player after a 4th down incompletion, eliminating leaving Iowa back inside its own 10-yard-line. Iowa eventually converted a short field goal to lead by 10 nearly midway through the fourth quarter. Minnesota answered with a touchdown to seemingly climb even with the underdog spread, but the PAT was missed in a monumental play relative to the spread. The Gophers were able to get the ball back, but Tanner Morgan took a second down sack and had to leave the game with an injury. Backup quarterback Cole Kramer stepped into a tough spot with a 3rd-and-21 incompletion and a 4th-and-21 interception as Iowa held on.

Central Michigan (+1) 45, Ball State 44: The Cardinals led 27-11 at halftime and still led by 10 entering the fourth quarter. Central Michigan proved up to the task however with an early touchdown in the fourth quarter offset only by a field goal for a six-point deficit for the Chippewas. Getting the ball back with about five minutes to go, Quinten Dormady didn’t face great resistance leading a drive 72 yards in 10 plays before cashing in with a minute to go for the one-point edge. Drew Plitt wound up intercepted on 4th down for Ball State’s final opportunity as the slight underdog delivered the comeback win.

Utah State (-5) 26, Wyoming 21: The Aggies opened at -6½ but dipped to -4½ and even -3 by Saturday before a late rise to close back at -5 at some outlets. The timing wound up mattering as a 23-14 Utah State lead through three quarters was threatened. The Aggies went up by 12 with a field goal following an interception after just missing a field goal on their last drive. Wyoming answered with one of its best drives of the game to climb within five with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Utah State didn’t offer much of a threat to add points late while Wyoming’s final drive across midfield ended in an interception, the third of the day for a Cowboys team not accustomed to passing that often.

Georgia (-3) 21, Auburn 14: Auburn was kept off the board in the first half despite three drives into Georgia territory with a missed field goal, getting stopped on downs just outside of field goal range, and a fumble. Up 7-0, Georgia managed another score right before halftime to lead 14-0 and that became 21-0 with the help of a big personal foul call late in the third quarter. Auburn flipped a switch from there with two quick touchdowns and two 3-and-outs on defense and had the ball back across midfield with a chance to tie the game. A surprising replay overturn took a 1st down catch away from the Tigers and then two plays later, Bo Nix missed a wide-open Harold Joiner in what would have been an easy 4th down conversion and likely a big gain. Auburn had timeouts and got the ball back with another chance in worse field position with nearly two minutes remaining, but a facemask on Nix was ignored on the series and Auburn was eventually sacked on 4th down to seal the win for Georgia, who clinched the SEC East despite being held to only 251 total yards.

Iowa State (-7) 23, Texas 21: The Cyclones controlled this game but a 20-7 lead through three quarters was erased with two Texas touchdowns to suddenly put the Longhorns in the lead by one with about five minutes to go. Sam Ehlinger would get the ball back with about four minutes left after the Texas defense held but the Longhorns didn’t gain a yard before punting. Texas got hit with back-to-back pass interference calls as Iowa State looked to go back in front for 30 free yards early in the drive and then defensive offsides converted 4th-and-5 for the Cyclones. Eventually, Iowa State burned the remaining clock and Connor Assalley hit the 36-yard field goal for the win but the late rally was enough for Longhorns backers.

Hawai’i (-6½) 21, UNLV 7: These teams were tied 7-7 until late in the third quarter and Cortez Davis gave the Warriors the lead with a 43-yard interception return touchdown. The Hawai’i offense added a score a few minutes later and then the defense got another interception to thwart a long UNLV drive. The Warriors then soaked up all the remaining clock with an 11-play drive to seal the win.

Washington State (-11) 49, Stanford 22: Washington State led 19-0 early in this game, but Stanford remained competitive trailing 25-22 late in the third quarter. Both teams had big production totals his game but Washington State kept the scoring going, closing the game on a 24-0 run to boost the numbers and create a misleading final result with Stanford suffering two late interceptions.

Air Force (-10) 38, Colorado State 21: The Rams led 14-0 led by a defensive touchdown in the first quarter. Air Force would score 10 in the second quarter, but the underdog Rams still led into the fourth quarter with a spread that reached +10½ at some outlets. Air Force took over in the final frame with a pair of scores to match the common spread with a 10-point advantage before Colorado State went 75 yards in two plays to stay in the game. Air Force scored with 2:32 to go to again make the margin 10 points and then as the Rams were poised to seal the underdog cover with a red zone opportunity, the Falcons got a 99-yard pick-six for the improbable road favorite cover.

Oregon State (+1) 35, Arizona State 34: A slight favorite all week, Arizona state found itself down two scores in the second half after a short-field touchdown for the Beavers made it 35-21 late in the third quarter. It took fewer than two minutes for the Sun Devils to respond closing the margin to seven heading into the fourth. Scoring stalled from there with fumbles costing both teams scoring chances before Jayden Daniels led a 90-yard drive into the end zone. With 1:40 on the clock, the Sun Devils opted to go for two but couldn’t convert as Oregon State narrowly held on.

Southern Miss (-17) 36, UTSA 17: Southern Miss allowed 422 yards to the Roadrunners in this game and led by only six late in the third quarter. A long run put the Golden Eagles up 12 heading into the fourth before five punts were traded between these teams. On a short field, Southern Miss added a late touchdown to slip past the favorite spread and then had to hold off four UTSA plays from the 10-yard line with a late Roadrunners threat ending up empty.

LSU (-21½) 58, Mississippi 37: LSU continues to tantalize with its offense posting big numbers again, but a now 4-7 Mississippi team put 614 yards up against allegedly the #1 team in the nation as the championship trophy shouldn’t be shipped to Baton Rouge just yet. LSU led 28-0 early in this game, but Ole Miss made several charges back into the contest including trimming the margin down to 11 points late in the third quarter. The Tigers would push the margin back to 21 with about five minutes to go in the game, but the Rebels would answer with another big play. LSU ran for a 49-yard score on the first play after recovering the onside kick and the game ultimately would end with Ole Miss barely hanging on to the heavy underdog cover as LSU took a knee at the 10-yard-line.

Oregon (-27) 34, Arizona 6: Arizona trailed by 22 heading into the fourth quarter as the defense kept Oregon in check respectably, but the offense wasn’t able to take advantage of a Justin Herbert interception to add points in the fourth quarter. The Ducks connected for a 33-yard touchdown with about 10 minutes remaining to slip past the spread with a 28-point edge, even with a missed PAT. Arizona reached the red zone on the next possession, but after converting a 4th down via penalty earlier in the drive, the Wildcats failed to come through on 4th down from the Oregon 13-yard-line. The Wildcats had another late drive into Oregon territory, but couldn’t add points as Oregon managed to cover the nearly four-touchdown spread despite scoring only five touchdowns.