NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Tues., Nov. 5 - Sat., Nov. 9)

[Udog]

by: Monty Andrews


CHASE YOUNG SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY

Chase Young will not play in Ohio State's game versus Maryland on Saturday. The details of the suspension are still ongoing, with the report issued from the school only describing it as an NCAA issue from 2018. But with no timetable set for his return expect the NCAA Championship futures odds to adjust with the Buckeyes at +250 prior to the news. Young was arguably the top defensive player in the country (and maybe the best player overall) with 13.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss through the Buckeyes first eight games of the season.

Ohio State was a 43.5-point favorite at home against Maryland this week and while Young's absence might not make much of a difference to that line, expect their title odds to shift and don't be surprised if his Heisman odds (+800) come off the board entirely. On the flip side, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins could see their own Heisman odds improve if they carry the Buckeyes in Young's absence.

The Buckeyes defense has been incredible this season and has more than just Young, but no unit can lose a player of Young's caliber and not be affected. With Maryland averaging just 8.5 ppg over their last two games and getting shut out by Penn State earlier this season, they will be hard-pressed to go Over their team total of 10.5 on Saturday, even with Young out. But if Young misses the Buckeyes crucial game against unbeaten PSU next week, the line will certainly be adjusted.


HEISMAN ODDS FROM THE SUPERBOOK AT WESTGATE (AS OF NOV 4)

Joe Burrow +120
Jalen Hurts +250
Tua Tagovailoa +300
Chase Young +800
Justin Fields +1,200
J.K. Dobbins +4,000
Justin Herbert +4,000
Chuba Hubbard +4,000


NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS FROM THE SUPERBOOK AT WESTGATE (AS OF NOV 4)

ALABAMA +200
OHIO STATE +250
CLEMSON +350
LSU +500
GEORGIA +1,200


NOT COVERING THE SPREAD

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane won't be competing in a bowl game this year, but it won't be for lack of effort. The Golden Hurricane seek their first American Athletic Conference win of 2019 following several close calls as they tangle with the visiting Central Florida Knights on Friday. Tulsa has narrow losses to Memphis and SMU on its resume this season, and four of its five covers have come against teams presently ranked in the College Football Playoff. UCF, on the other hand, has gone just 1-5 ATS in its past six games overall and continues to deal with injuries among its running back corps.

With Tulsa enjoying the home-field edge and boasting a top-40 pass defense despite its poor record, we like the hosts and the points against a Knights team that has been an ATS disappointment of late.


UPSET BREWING?

At the beginning of the season, the thought of Oregon State knocking off the Washington Huskies would have been absurd. But that's not the case heading into their Friday night encounter at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, with the Beavers sitting ahead of the Huskies in the conference standings. And Oregon State could be a major pain for Washington if it can continue being successful on third downs, coming into this one with the 12th-highest conversion rate in the country (49.1 percent). The Huskies are well down the list by comparison, ranking 101st in the nation at 35.7 percent.

Extending drives at a high rate should give the Beavers enough added possession time to make good on the home cover – and if you're feeling particularly brave, you could take Oregon State to win this one outright.


MORE LIKE DEAD-ZONE

The Georgia Tech offensive revolution has been a major disappointment as the Yellow Jackets continue playing out the string Saturday against host Virginia. Having done away with its run-heavy attack in favor of more balance, Georgia Tech has struggled mightily to produce points – particularly in the red zone, where the Yellow Jackets rank dead last in conversion rate (55.6 percent) while having made just 18 trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line to date. Virginia has held opponents to a 78.3-percent success rate inside the red zone while allowing just 23 visits all season.

The Cavaliers haven't been as defensively stout as they have in recent years, but they still boast one of the most formidable defenses in the nation – and should have no trouble keeping Georgia Tech below its team point total.


A SPECIAL PROP BET

The Michigan State Spartans have bigger things to worry about than the absence of their No. 1 receiver as they prepare to face the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. In addition to being without Darrell Stewart Jr., who will miss the game with a leg injury, the Spartans are matching up with an Illini defense that comes in as the top-ranked unit in the nation in forced turnovers (22) and defensive touchdowns (five). The Illini had a pair of defensive scores in last week's 38-10 drubbing of visiting Rutgers, and they've forced a whopping eight turnovers over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

With the Spartans having scored a pair of defensive TDs of their own – and both offenses expected to struggle this weekend – we like the defensive/special teams touchdown here.

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials - Week 11
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in select FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Florida State at Boston College (-2.5/63), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: With Willie Taggart bought out after losing at home to Miami last weekend, the ‘Noles might have a new vibe to them as they hit the road to try to get back to .500. Guys who are still invested and want to hang around will bust it for interim fill-in Odell Haggins, a ‘Noles lifer who has coached the defensive line for over two decades. Those who are done with the season will quit. It’s time to find out how much heart the Seminoles have and how much Taggart’s shortcomings preparing his group were to blame. A second straight 5-7 season seems inevitable if they can’t pull off a win here.

The Eagles need one more win to become bowl eligible and and will visit Notre Dame and Pitt to close out the month, so this is probably their best chance to take care of business. The ‘Noles won last year’s game on a late 87-yard touchdown pass in Tallahassee but lost their last visit here 35-3, so the dominance that has produced a 12-5 record in the series has dissipated. BC’s A.J. Dillon ranks second in the country in rushing yards and FSU’s Cam Akers is one of the nation’s most dynamic backs but comes off a disappointing outing against the ‘Canes (22 carries, 66 yards), so expect this game to wind up decided by whichever offensive line best allows the RBs to shine. Temperatures will barely get into the 40s, which should favor the Eagles at home in the now annual “Red Bandana” game honoring alum Welles Crowther.

Maryland at Ohio State (-43.5/66), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: The Chase Young news was the talk of the college football world on Friday. The nation’s best defensive player reportedly borrowed money to get his family to the Rose Bowl, drawing the ire of the NCAA. The line barely budged and actually climbed slightly, so the betting public isn’t fazed by his absence in this matchup. The Terps have seen their offensive line play reach new lows week after week and would-be backup QB Tyrrell Pigrome is more of a runner than a passer, so Young’s absence shouldn’t make a huge difference against the Terps, who still may start Virginia Tech transfer Josh Jackson, calling it a game-time decision. Notified by reporters that spread was more than six TDs, Jackson replied, “that’s a lot. I don’t pay too much attention to the spread,” per the Baltimore Sun.

Make sure you put to rest any idea that Maryland isn’t aware what a heavy underdog it is in this visit to Columbus, where mild winds and temperatures in the high 30’s await. The Terps have been outscored 149-17 by nationally-ranked competition under first-year coach Mike Locksley. The Buckeyes are the nation’s top team according to the first CFB rankings. RB J.K. Dobbins is on pace to break the school’s single-season rushing record and QB Justin Fields is also in the Heisman race, so padding stats will be a necessity for both.

Penn State (-6.5/47.5) at Minnesota, 12 p.m ET, ABC: Although it won’t get the national attention that the ‘Bama-LSU will receive, this battle of undefeated teams is a worthy appetizer. It’s going to be cloudy and cold with a chance that the fourth quarter might be played in freezing rain, so it might not be pretty, but should be exciting. The Gophers have scored 34 points in seven straight games for the first time in 114 years, but will be looking to score on a Penn State defense surrendering 9.6 points and just 68.4 rushing yards per game, both of which ranks second in the nation. This will be a huge test for Tanner Morgan, who won at Wisconsin last season and has engineered some fourth-quarter heroics but must step up his level if his team is going to pull off an upset here. Minnesota wants to monopolize time of possession and keep Morgan from situations where he’s asked to do too much. Success on third down will likely determine the Gophers’ fate.

Nittany Lions’ QB Sean Clifford has excelled at Iowa and Michigan State already and did what he had to turn back the most talented defense he’s seen in Michigan, hooking up with star wideout KJ Hamler in adequately replacing Trace McSorley, currently on pace to surpass his production from last season. Minnesota lost the last meeting between these schools 29-26 in OT in ’16 and won 24-10 the last time Penn State came through town, its lone win in the last six matchups.

Baylor (-2.5/48) at TCU, 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Horned Frogs are stuck in a spoiler role again with another .500 team but Gary Patterson’s team figures to be dangerous here since their bowl streak of five straight years is on the line. Although TCU will host West Virginia to close the season, it has to visit Texas Tech and Oklahoma over the next two weeks and can really take some pressure off with an upset here. Baylor is unbeaten with road wins at K-State and Oklahoma State as its most impressive victories to date but will really be tested here and in home games against Oklahoma and Texas over the next two weeks. It hasn’t beaten TCU since 2014, dropping four straight in the series.

This a rivalry game, so it would absolutely make the Horned Frogs’ season to derail the Bears’ undefeated run. TCU handed Baylor its last loss, winning 16-9 in Waco last season. Freshman QB Max Duggan has been a revelation but comes in with a banged up middle finger on his throwing hand, so keeping him away from further damage is crucial. Backup Mike Collins is out and Alex Delton and Justin Rogers left the program, which means walk-on Matthew Downing would play if Duggan can’t go. The Frogs’ defense will look to turn over Charlie Brewer the way they managed to with Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger in an upset last month. Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton will test TCU’s corners, with Senior Bowl-bound Jeff Gladney looking to make a difference.

Afternoon Delights

Louisville at Miami, FL (-6.5/48.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ACC: After defeating Florida State, Manny Diaz’s Hurricanes have now posted back-to-back wins and are looking for the program’s first three-game winning streak since winning five straight in October of last season. A season that opened with promise can now end with a bit of a flourish provided Miami can head into its bye week with one more victory. Louisville has won three of four after holding on to upset Virginia last week, continuing a surprisingly successful first season under new head coach Scott Satterfield. The Cardinals have survived injuries at key positions and can clinch a bowl berth after missing out last during last year’s 2-10 thud following Lamar Jackson’s departure.

The ‘Canes have seen freshman Jarren Williams reclaim the starting role he originally won to start the season after leading the offense on a game-winning drive against Pitt and in last week’s win over FSU, so they’re hoping he can improve to finish the season and set the one for next season with a strong final month. The Cards are coming off their second bye week and have won the last three meetings between these schools. Louisville won its ACC opener back in 2014 at home and will look to pressure Williams into mistakes. Gregory Rousseau ranks second nationally behind Ohio State’s Young in sacks.

LSU at Alabama (-6/63.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: The biggest game in the country will be played in perfect weather, so neither team will be able to use Mother Nature as an excuse. QB Tua Tagovailoa comes off ankle surgery and has been practicing, so he’ll be able to start and give the Tide offense a spark just 20 days after going under the knife 20 days ago. High-ankle sprains are never easy to come back from, but all footage of him in practices have shown him moving around fluidly and planting well. We’ll see if there are any continuity issues. His ability to elude pressure and keep drives alive will be a major factor in what’s expected to be a high-scoring game. RB Najee Harris has also been deemed ‘probable’ despite an ankle issue of his own. He’s thrown for 23 touchdowns and hasn’t been intercepted.

The Tigers have ruled out LB Michael Divinity but should have enough depth to survive his absence and are leaning on Heisman Trophy candidate Joe Burrow, the favorite according to Caesars. He’s averaging 351 yards per game and has made the difference in LSU’s turnaround by breathing life into the new pass-based offense with his accuracy downfield. These teams have two of the most talented WR corps in the country. Tigers safety Grant Delpit (ankle) has been cleared to play and will lead the LSU defense. Alabama has won every meeting since losing 9-6 in 2011 and shut out the Tigers 29-0 last season. ‘Bama hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a single game in this series since losing 24-21 back in 10. Most team total numbers for LSU are hovering in the 28.5 range.

Primetime Matchups

Iowa State at Oklahoma (-14.5/68), 8 p.m. ET, FOX: Coming off a bye week after their upset loss at Kansas State, the Sooners are looking to climb back up the rankings this month with challenging games against Iowa State, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They may still be on the outside looking in as far as the national playoffs are concerned after opening ninth in the initial CFP rankings so we’ll see how impressive OU is going forward since Lincoln Riley is aware his team we’ll likely require style points given the perception of the Big 12 being the weakest Power-5.

Big things were expected from the Cyclones this season and they’re still in the mix for a conference title game appearance if they can pull off an upset here. Brock Purdy threw three interceptions over the final eight minutes of ISU’s 34-27 loss to Oklahoma State prior to its bye week, so he’ll be looking to rebound against an Oklahoma defense that failed to stop the run against K-State, setting up play action. The Sooners have only six takeaways. Tight end Grant Calcaterra is a game-time decision, so QB Jalen Hurts could have another of the offense’s biggest playmakers in place. His Heisman Trophy candidacy took a hit in part due to his defense’s inability to get stops, something that didn’t really happen at Alabama. Hurts has presided over an attack averaging over 49 points per game and is averaging 13.7 yards per attempt, a national-best. He leads the country in passing efficiency and is closing in on 1,000 yards rushing. The Sooners have won 18 consecutive games in this series.

[Udog]

LSU at Alabama
Brian Edwards

No. 1 LSU Tigers at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide

Venue/Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -6, Total 63

Head-to-Head Meetings (2014-2018)
2018 - Alabama (-14) 29 at LSU 0, Under 51.5
2017 - Alabama (-20.5) 42 vs. LSU 10, Under 46.5
2016 - Alabama (-7) 10 at LSU 0, Under 46
2015 - Alabama (-7.5) 30 vs. LSU 16, Under 46.5
2014 - Alabama (-7) 20 at LSU 13, Under 46.5

Since a 2011 regular-season meeting when LSU won 9-6 over Alabama in overtime at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Crimson Tide has beaten the Tigers eight times in a row, including a revenge beatdown to win the national title in New Orleans two months after losing by a field goal in OT.

Nick Saban’s team is 6-2 against the spread in those eight victories, with six of them coming by double-digit margins. Only three of the eight games have been played in Tuscaloosa (four in Baton Rouge, one in The Big Easy), but Alabama won each of those by 14 points or more. However, LSU did take the cash in its last visit here, losing 24-10 as a 20.5-point road underdog in 2017.

When these teams met at Tiger Stadium last season, Alabama (8-0 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) rolled to an easy 29-0 victory as a 14-point road ‘chalk.’ Although star quarterback Tua Tagovialo was playing at less than 100 percent with an ankle and knee injury, he was healthy enough to complete 25-of-42 passes for 295 yards and two TDs with one interception. Also, he scored on a 44-yard TD run midway through the third quarter that basically clinched the game and gave the Tide a 22-0 lead.

Najee Harris ran for 83 yards on six carries, while Jerry Jeudy had eight receptions for 103 yards. Henry Ruggs III had four catches for 55 yards and one TD, while Jaylen Waddle had four grabs for 44 yards. Alabama enjoyed healthy advantages in first downs (29-13) and total offense (576-196).

LSU head coach Ed Orgeron revealed this week that QB Joe Burrow played that game with a separated shoulder. The grad transfer from Ohio State connected on just 18-of-35 throws for 184 yards with one interception. The Tide blanked the Tigers on the ground, allowing only 12 rushing yards on 25 attempts.

What’s different about this year’s meeting? Well, for the first time in more than a decade, LSU brought back an experienced QB that had proven he could win big games. The Tigers also went out and hired Joe Brady away from the New Orleans Saints. Brady spent two years on Sean Payton’s staff before Orgeron hired him as LSU’s wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator.

The 30-year-old Brady has been given much of the credit for LSU finally opening up the offense. After all, offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger has been on the staff for 10 years. The Burrow-Brady combination has produced more offensive fireworks through nine games than LSU fans have seen since the days of Tommy Hodson under center in the late 1980s.

When the initial College Football Rankings were released earlier this week, LSU and Alabama were second and third, respectively, behind top-ranked Ohio State. However, LSU can lose Saturday’s showdown and possibly work its way back into the top four. It owns wins over Florida (No. 10) and Auburn (No. 11), and the Tigers won 45-38 at Texas in Week 2 before a rash of injuries on defense sent the Longhorns’ season into a downward spiral.

As for Alabama, it has zero wins over teams currently in the CFP’s Top 25. With a loss here, it won’t be able to add a quality victory over sixth-ranked Georgia in Atlanta. Therefore, even by winning out, the Tide would only have a win at Auburn (which might take a third loss when it hosts Georgia next weekend) to boast about as a quality victory. They did win at Texas A&M, though, but it’s unlikely that the Aggies can win at Georgia or at LSU in the coming weeks (they’re currently double-digit ‘dogs in both spots at the Westgate SuperBook).

For Alabama to lose vs. LSU and still make the CFP, it would need Auburn to beat UGA and for Texas A&M to win at UGA and and LSU. Even in that scenario that’s extremely unlikely, the Tide still might need more help. Those are the stakes for Saban’s program, which hasn’t been left out of the CFP since its inception, on Saturday when the Tigers come calling.

As of early Friday evening, most books had Alabama listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 62.5. The Tigers were +190 on the money line.

The key to this game is going to be the health of Tagovailoa, who injured his ankle in a 35-13 home win over Tennessee. He had tightrope surgery on his ankle the next morning. We should note that’s it not the ankle he uses to plant his foot before throwing. That ankle needed the same procedure after last year’s SEC Championship Game. Tagovailoa had more than 30 days to recover in that instance, and he still didn’t play up to his lofty standards in the 44-16 loss to Clemson.

Tagovailoa is listed as ‘questionable’ or as a game-time decision. Barring some sort of setback in the next 18 hours, though, there’s no doubt that he’s going to try to play. The question is how effective he’ll be and if he’s able to last after taking hits to his lower body.

I spoke with one of the best orthopedic surgeons in the Southeast earlier this week. Dr. Michael Gilmore, who was a three-year starter at safety for the Florida Gators from 1991-94 and had nine interceptions in ’93 and ‘94, performed three of these tightrope ankle surgeries last week.

Remember, Tagovailoa’s procedure was done on the Sunday morning (Oct. 20) after the UT game. Therefore, 20 days will have passed by kickoff Saturday afternoon. I asked Gilmore what sort of expectations there should be for an elite young athlete 20 days removed from this surgery. Gilmore told VegasInsider.com, “I’ll tell you it’s really hard to be back to full speed at three weeks playing with that medical condition. I know he is being tended to like a King 24/7 and they have a great medical staff at Alabama, but it’s still tough to get back so quickly. I would be extremely surprised if he were back playing full speed this week, and I guess that’s why we keep hearing “game-time decision.”

When pressed on a percentage in a best-case scenario, Gilmore said, “Seventy, maybe 75 percent. Maybe that’s enough for him to be effective, though. What’s going to be an issue is scrambling around. I just don’t think it’s possible for him to be moving around at full speed this soon.” Alabama is only 2-3 ATS in five home games this year, but it was favored by at least 34.5 points in all three non-covers. The Tide has won each home contest by 22 points or more.

Tagovailoa missed the second half against the Volunteers and sat out a 48-7 home win over Arkansas two weeks ago. Back-up QB Mac Jones hit 18-of-22 throws for 235 yards and three TDs without an interception. However, most of those passing yards came on YAC (yards after catch) by Alabama’s sensational set of wideouts. Jeudy had seven receptions for 103 yards and two TDs, while DeVonta Smith caught four balls for 67 yards.

Harris rushed 13 times for 86 yards and two TDs against the Razorbacks, while Ruggs had four catches for 47 yards and one TD.

For the season Tagovailoa has completed 74.7 percent of his passes for 2,166 yards with a 27/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has a pair of rushing scores. Tagovailoa’s career stats are absolutely insane! They look like this: 22-1 record in 23 starts, 81/10 TD-INT ratio and nine rushing TDs.

Harris has run for a team-best 642 yards and five TDs, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Brian Robinson has 356 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.7 YPC average.

Smith has 43 receptions for 721 yards and nine TDs, while Jeudy has 52 catches for 682 yards and eight TDs. Ruggs has 26 grabs for 513 yards and six TDs, and Waddle has hauled in 21 receptions for 297 yards and one TD. Harris also has 16 catches for 171 yards and four TDs.

Alabama’s defense isn’t as salty as it’s been for most of Saban’s dynastic 13-year tenure. Nevertheless, the numbers still stack up well nationally, but let’s remember how the Tide’s schedule has been soft. Whatever the case, Alabama is ranked 16th in the country in total defense, 12th in pass defense, 33rd at defending the run and ninth in scoring ‘D’ (15.2 points per game).

LSU (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) is 3-0 both SU and ATS on the road, winning at Texas, at Vanderbilt (66-38) and at Mississippi State (36-13). The Tigers also own home scalps over Florida (42-28) and Auburn (23-20).

LSU is ranked fourth in the nation in total offense, second in passing yards and fourth in scoring with its 46.8 PPG average. Burrow, who is currently the ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman Trophy at all betting shops (more on this in Nuggets below), has completed 78.8 percent of his passes for 2,805 yards with a 30/4 TD-INT ratio. He also has 125 rushing yards and three scores.

Justin Jefferson has 55 receptions for 819 yards and nine TDs, while Ja’Marr Chase has snagged 43 catches for 749 yards and nine TDs. Despite missing three games, Terrace Marshall Jr. has 22 grabs for 333 yards and seven TDs.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has run for a team-best 683 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC.

Dave Aranda’s LSU defense is ranked No. 23 in the country in total defense, 14th against the run and 23rd in scoring ‘D’ (20.0 PPG). This unit is led by junior safety Grant Delpit, who garnered first-team All-American honors in 2018 when he had 74 tackles, five sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, nine passes broken up, five interceptions and four QB hurries.

Delpit has missed a lot of practice since injuring his ankle against Auburn two weeks ago, but he was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Friday. He’s recorded 43 tackles, four PBU, 1.5 TFL’s, one QB hurry and one interception this year. True freshman CB Derek Stingley has emerged as one of the nation’s best shutdown corners, living up to his five-star billing all year. Stingley has 22 tackles, nine PBU and four interceptions.

LSU senior LB Michael Divinity left the team on Monday for personal reasons. He is ‘out’ at Alabama and most likely done for the season, although Orgeron seemingly suggested that there was a slim possibility he could return later in the season. Without question, it was an inauspicious start to game preparations for the Tigers. Divinity had missed three games this year, at least two of which were clearly related to disciplinary matters. In five games, he had 23 tackles, a team-best three sacks, three QB hurries, one TFL and one forced fumble.

Since Orgeron took over for Les Miles in October of the 2016 campaign, LSU has thrived in SEC road games with a 9-4 SU record and a 10-3 ATS mark. As a road underdog on Orgeron’s watch, the Tigers have compiled a 4-0 spread record with two outright victories.

Totals have been an overall wash for ‘Bama (4-4), but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in its home games. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 63.9 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for LSU, 2-1 in its road assignments. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 66.8 PPG.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight Alabama-LSU meetings and is on a 9-1 run in the last 10 encounters. The highest previous total over the past decade was 54 points in 2013, when ‘Bama won 38-17 and the 55 combined points inched ‘over’ the number.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. on CBS.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Alabama is listed as 24.5-point favorite at Mississippi State for their Week 12 matchup at The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Jay Kornegay and his staff’s new Iron Bowl number this week had the Tide down to single digits (-9.5) for the first time this year. LSU is a 20.5-point home favorite vs. Texas A&M at the Westgate.

-- Alabama owns a 10-2 SU record and an 8-4 ATS ledger against LSU in the past 12 meetings dating back to 2008.

-- During its eight-game losing streak to Alabama, LSU hasn’t scored more than 17 points once. In fact, the Tigers have been shut out three times, and they’ve only score 10 total points in the past three encounters.

-- There’s a ticket on Burrow to win the Heisman Trophy available for sale at PropSwap for $8,600. The ticket was purchased for $300 at 75/1 odds to pay out $22,500.

-- Ohio State star DE Chase Young is ‘out’ vs. Maryland and possibly longer due to an NCAA issue. Young is the nation’s leader in sacks with 13.5 and is second in forced fumbles with five. In a post on social media, Young explained that he accepted “a loan from a family friend I’ve known since the summer before my freshman year at OSU. I repaid it in full last summer and I’m working with University and NCAA to get back on the field as soon as possible.” After recording four sacks and forcing two fumbles in a win over Wisconsin two weeks ago, Young emerged as a potential sleeper Heisman candidate and before this news broke Friday, many books had him with +800 odds to win the award.

-- Vanderbilt QB Deuce Wallace will get his first career start at Florida. Vandy signal callers Mo Hasan and Riley Neal are both ‘out’ with concussions. On the bright side for the Commodores, who are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS, they will get back star WR Kalija Lipscomb, who dressed out but didn’t touch the field in last week’s 24-7 loss at South Carolina. Derek Mason deemed Lipscomb’s absence due to personal reasons, but last year’s SEC leader in catches is a go against the Gators. UF linebacker Jeremiah Moon is ‘out’ with a foot injury. Florida is a 27-point home favorite at most books.

-- Bad News for Bettors: Akron is off in Week 11. The Zips are 0-9 both SU and ATS, but they do return in Week 12 with a televised MACtion showdown on Tuesday night (11/12) vs. Eastern Michigan.

-- Nebraska is mired in a 0-6 ATS slump. After starting 3-1 and then 4-2 after a home win over Northwestern, Scott Frost’s second team in Lincoln has lost three consecutive games at Minnesota (34-7), vs. Indiana (38-31) and at Purdue (31-27). The Boilermakers knocked off the Cornhuskers without All-American WR Rondale Moore, and they needed third-string QB Aidan O’Connell to orchestrate a pair of fourth-quarter TD drives. Jeff Brohm confirmed Tuesday that back-up QB Jack Plummer will miss the rest of the season. The third-year head coach added that he’s ‘not optimistic’ about the chances of starting QB Elijah Sindelar returning this year. Frost fell to 8-13 since taking over at his alma mater.

-- Northwestern has scored more than 15 points only once this season. I don’t know about you, but I can’t think of a more pedestrian Power Five offense in the last decade. Pedestrian doesn’t even do it justice; let’s go with pathetic instead! The Wildcats are DEAD LAST in scoring with a 9.5 PPG average that ranks No. 130 out of 130 FBS teams. Their total for Saturday’s home game vs. Purdue is 39 points. According to Jon Roser of Grind City Media in Memphis, Northwestern has zero TDs and seven turnovers in its last 44 offensive possessions.

-- Kansas State has won three in a row both SU and ATS. The Wildcats are seven-point underdogs at Texas. They’re 33-14 ATS in their past 47 games as road underdogs. Meanwhile, Texas has limped to a 4-9 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite during Tom Herman’s tenure. The Longhorns have had two weeks to prep for Kansas State.

-- Michigan State WR Darrell Stewart is ‘out’ indefinitely with a leg injury. Stewart has 47 receptions for 694 yards and four TDs. Spartans’ starting center Thomas Allen is also ‘out’ for Saturday’s home game vs. Illinois and, like we noted last week, All-American LB Joe Bachie was suspended by the NCAA last week for testing positive for a banned substance. Mark Dantonio’s team has lost three consecutive games by a combined score of 100-17. On the flip side, Illinois has won three games in a row and has covered the spread in four straight contests. Lovie Smith’s club, a 14.5-point road underdog, has produced a 4-1 spread record with a pair of outright wins in five games as a double-digit underdog in 2019. The Illini will almost certainly be favored at home vs. Northwestern in its regular-season finale. They need just one more win to secure the first bowl bid of Smith’s tenure. If he can lead his team to victory in East Lansing as a +500 money-line underdog, Illinois will probably go 7-5 this year and instead of getting fired, Lovie might end up getting an extension.

-- Indiana QB Michael Penix is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.

-- BYU QBs Zach Wilson and Darren Hall are both listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. Liberty.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

College Football Week 11 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 31-18
Against the Spread 17-32

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 31-18
Against the Spread 20-29

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 25-23-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 521-142
Against the Spread 332-320-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 429-230
Against the Spread 318-330-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 317-340-12

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Nevada (+17, ML +700) at San Diego State, 17-13
Tulsa (+16, ML +575) vs. UCF, 34-31
Illinois (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 37-34
California (+9, ML +275) vs. Washington State, 23-20
Miami-Ohio (+7, ML +230) at Ohio, 24-21
Minnesota (+6.5, ML +210) vs. Penn State, 31-26
Appalachian State (+6, ML +200) at South Carolina, 20-15

The largest favorites to cover
Ohio State (-42.5) vs. Maryland, 73-14
Clemson (-35) at N.C. State, 55-10
Army (-34.5) vs. Massachusetts, 63-7
Cincinnati (-34) vs. Connecticut, 48-3
Mississippi (-28) vs. New Mexico State, 41-3
Florida (-27) vs. Vanderbilt, 56-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- Cincinnati entered the weekend as the highest ranked team among the Group of Five candidates, and they did nothing to hurt their chances with a 48-3 whitewashing of Connecticut. The Bearcats covered the 34-point number, their first cover outings after opening the season 5-1 ATS. ... SMU was involved in another shootout, as they held off East Carolina by a 59-51 count in Dallas. The 'over' is now 9-0-1 in 10 games for the Mustangs this season. After opening the season 5-0 ATS, they're just 1-4 ATS across the past five, including non-covers in the past three. ... Tulsa entered Friday's game against UCF with nothing to play for but pride, as they have been eliminated from bowl contention. They showed tremendous pride in dealing the Golden Knights a 34-31 loss. While the Golden Hurricane entered on a five-game losing streak, they're now 3-1 ATS across the four outings. Looks like there will be no national championship claims this season in Orlando.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Miami dumped Louisville by a 52-27 score, perhaps their most impressive showing of the season. The Hurricanes have won and covered a season-best three in a row after opening 3-4 SU/ATS, and they're now bowl eligible. ... Duke opened the season with a 4-2 SU/ATS mark, but they're on a three-game skid after falling at home to Notre Dame by a 38-7 count. They're also 0-3 ATS during the slid, and their offense has dried up. They're averaging just 12.7 PPG across the past three after opening with 40.4 PPG in a five-game span from Sept. 7-Oct. 12. ... Virginia held off Georgia Tech by a 33-28 score, as the Cavaliers moved to 7-3 SU. However, after opening 2-0 ATS, they're just 2-5-1 ATS across the past eight. The Yellow Jackets opened 0-6 ATS, but they're not quitting down the stretch, going 2-1 ATS across the past three. They're a friend to total bettors, too, as the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five contests. ... N.C. State has given Clemson some trouble in the past, including a straight-up victory at Carter-Finley Stadium back on Nov. 19, 2011, a game which I attended. The Pack won 37-13 that night as 7 1/2-point underdogs. There was no such trouble on Saturday. The Tigers mowed down the Pack 55-10 in chilly Raleigh. Remember when everyone was writing off the Tigers after their near-miss at UNC? Yeah, they're not going anywhere anytime soon.

BIG TEN
-- Illinois looked like the same old Illini on Saturday - for three quarters. They entered the fourth quarter down 31-10 at Michigan State, but this installment of the Illini is different. They really do fight. They outscored Sparty 27-3 in the final quarter, earning bowl eligibility in style with a 37-34 win. Remember all of those calls for Lovie Smith's job the past couple of seasons. He is safe now, and the calls are for Mark Dantonio's job in East Lansing these days. ... The big news in the Big Ten was the eligibility issue and suspension of DE Chase Young, the Heisman Trophy candidate. He reportedly took a small loan from a close family friend to fly his girlfriend out to the Rose Bowl to see him play. He paid the load back in the spring. Sounds harmless enough, but this is the archaic and selective punishing NCAA we're talking about here. Was Ohio State distracted? Nah. They embarrassed Maryland by a 73-14 score, their second time hitting the 70-point plateau this season. They were ranked No. 1 in the first official College Football Playoff rankings released this past Tuesday, but likely will slip due to LSU's win over Alabama in the SEC. ... Another playoff hopeful likely to tumble is Penn State, as they were ranked No. 4. They went to Minnesota, a team which received knocks because they "haven't played anybody", and lost to the Golden Gophers by a 31-26 score in an entertaining game. P.J. Fleck's rowed the boat at Western Michigan, and now he's rowing it in the Twin Cities. The Gophers are 6-0 ATS across the past six.

BIG 12
-- Iowa State gave Oklahoma all they could handle in a 42-41 loss in Norman. Inside the final minute HC Matt Campbell elected to go for two and the win after a late touchdown, but the attempt was picked off to avert disaster for the Sooners. The Cyclones have lost to both Oklahoma schools in the past two games, and they're still not yet eligible for a bowl at 5-4 SU with three to play. ... Texas held off Kansas State by a 27-24 score, although the Wildcats grabbed the cover. It was a rather curious line with K-State catching more than a touchdown against the skidding Longhorns. The Wildcats have covered four in a row, and the 'under' is 5-1 across their past six, as they have been a friend to bettors. Overall they're 7-2 ATS in nine outings. ... Baylor won a crazy game in TCU, 29-23 in overtime. This was not just a bad beat, but perhaps the worst one of the 2019 season (see below). The Bears improved to 9-0 SU, but they're just 5-4 ATS, while the 'over' is 3-1 across the past four. The over is 6-1 in TCU's past seven, too, although it probably shouldn't have hit. Again, see below.

CONFERENCE USA
-- Florida Atlantic won the Shula Bowl, which is the annual meeting with South Florida rival Florida International. The Owls won 37-7, topping FIU for the 13th time in 17 meetings. More importantly to bettors, Lane Kiffin's Owls are 7-3 SU heading into a bye, temporarily in sole possession of first place in the East Division of C-USA. They're 7-1 SU across the past eight, and 5-1 ATS over the past six. They're still the only team to cover the spread against No. 1 Ohio State, too, and only team to score more than twice against the Buckeyes in a game this season. ... UAB is suddenly in freefall, as they were blasted 37-2 by Southern Miss. The Blazers opened 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, but they're 0-2 SU/ATS over the past two with the 'under' hitting in both since they're averaging 4.5 PPG during the skid. ... Texas-San Antonio stole one at Old Dominion, winning 24-23. The Roadrunners are now 3-0 ATS and they have hit the 'over' in three straight, too. ... Louisiana Tech spanked North Texas, 52-17, as the Mean Green slipped to 4-6 SU, needing to win both of their final games to become bowl eligible. They're just 1-5 ATS in the past six, too.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- All three mid-week MAC games saw the underdog go 3-0 ATS, with Miami-Ohio winning outright at Ohio, 24-21. The 'over' covered in the pair of Tuesday battles, too, while Wednesday's Miami-Ohio contest hit the under thanks to a scoreless first quarter. ... If you had an 'under' ticket in the Ball State-Western Michigan game (myself included), you elected to receive your bad beat a few days early. See below.

MOUNTAIN WEST
-- There were four games in the Mountain West, and all four were decided by four or fewer points, with the Wyoming-Boise State game going to overtime. The Cowboys were using a backup quarterback, as were the Broncos, so that explained the low-scoring affair. Even overtime wasn't enough to bail out 'over' bettors in this one. ... Nevada pulled off a surprising 17-13 road win against San Diego State, who, honestly, have been living rather dangerously. The Aztecs slipped to 1-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and perhaps a 17-point spread was a gift to bettors since the Aztecs have failed to scored more than 27 points in every game except at New Mexico State back on Sept. 14. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three, and 8-1 in their nine games overall. For the Wolf Pack, they attained bowl eligibility with the win, and they're now 6-4 SU while winning outright twice as double-digit 'dogs this season. ... San Jose State headed to the islands and lost an entertaining 42-40 game at Hawaii. The Spartans have dropped two in a row despite averaging 41.0 PPG, and they're 3-0 ATS in the past three, while going 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight overall.

PAC-12
-- There were just four total games in the Pac-12, with three games on Saturday. USC-Arizona State was an entertaining battle, as the Trojans won 31-26 in Tempe, just narrowly missing a 5.5-point cover. After opening 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road, the Trojans are 2-0 SU/0-1-1 ATS in the past two away from home. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the past three games following a 5-0 'under' run for the Men of Troy. ... Colorado snapped a five-game losing skid, rallying for a gutsy 17-13 win over Stanford. The Buffaloes still need to win their final two for bowl eligibility, and they have Washington and Utah remaining. Good luck with that! Speaking of Washington, they won 19-7 on Friday night against Oregon State, nearly shutting them out. In fact, the defense did not allow any points, as the Beavers scored their only TD on a pick-six.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Arkansas ended up closely as short 'dogs at home against a Conference USA team, Western Kentucky. It gets worse. The Hogs were thrashed by the Hilltoppers by a 45-19 score, and the QB for WKU was a former Arkansas signal caller. It doesn't appear head coach Chad Morris is going to be employed much longer in Fayetteville, if he even lasts the week. ... Of course, the most highly-anticipated game of the season was LSU-Alabama. A lot of talk about Minnesota was "they haven't played anybody", but really, who has 'Bama played? Duke? New Mexico State? Ole Miss? A&M? None of the teams they played previously were in the rankings this week. LSU was ranked No. 2 in the College Playoff rankings, and they opened a 33-13 lead at halftime before hanging on for the 46-41 victory in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is 4-5 ATS this season, and they have yet to cover in consecutive games this season. ... Tennessee went up to Kentucky and it seemed like old times. They rallied for a 17-13 win after falling behind 13-0 after one quarter, and the Vols have now won three in a row and moved within one game of bowl eligibility. More importantly they're 5-0 ATS across the past five after going 1-4 ATS to start.

SUN BELT
-- South Carolina paid Appalachian State to come to Columbia to play. They didn't know they'd be getting an angry Mountaineers side after losing at home to Georgia Southern last week. App State pulled off a road win for the second time against a Power 5 team, just the seventh team to do that since 2001. ... Spreaking of Southern, they failed to cover over the momentum from their big win. They went to Troy and were handled, 49-28 as field-goal favorites. The Eagles slipped to 5-4 SU, and still need a win to attain bowl eligibility. The 'over' is 5-2 across the past seven outings. ... Georgia State was another field-goal favorite on the road to struggle, falling at Louisiana-Monroe by a 45-31 count, snapping a four-game winning streak. It was a rare non-cover for the Panthers, too, as they entered 5-1-2 ATS in the first eight outings.

Bad Beats

-- Perhaps the most raw beat of the season happened on the Baylor-TCU total. If you had an 'under' (48) ticket, you were on the right side. In fact, there were no touchdowns at all in regulation. The game went to overtime, and should have still cashed the under with just 18 total points on the board. However, the teams exchanged touchdowns in the first overtime, they extended touchdowns in the second OT, too, and you were already done with 46 on the board, regardless of what happened in triple. Baylor ended up winning 29-23, adding salt to the wound of anyone hold a TCU side ticket. The Horned Frogs probably should have covered in regulation, 9-6, but the Bears hit a clutch 51-yard field goal with :36 left to force OT.

-- As mentioned, the mid-week MAC game between Ball State and Western Michigan was a tough pill to swallow for 'under' bettors. The total was 64.5, and entering the fourth there were just 38 points on the board. Western Michigan took a 28-24 lead with 5:21 to go, and you were still in good shape. Ball State replied quickly re-taking a 31-28 lead with 3:24 to go. With just 1:05 remaining in regulation, the Broncos struck for a touchdown to win 35-31, flipping the total to 'over'.

-- The Florida State-Boston College (64.5) game was a rough one for 'under' bettors, too. Aren't they all? BC tied it up 24-24 with 2:33 to go. FSU answered with a 60-yard touchdown to re-take the lead, 31-24. This game did NOT go to overtime, yet under bettors still lost. Yes, a touchdown was scored by FSU with 1:03 to go, and then BC had a touchdown with just 14 seconds left to flip the total over. There were 41 points on the board with 2:34 to play. There were 28 points scored in the final 2:33. Ouch.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 11
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 11th weekend of the college football.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Toledo (-3) 35, Kent State 33: The line on this game crashed from -7½ to just -3 but Toledo led 14-0 nine minutes into the game and maintained a 28-17 edge at halftime. Kent State climbed back in the game and after a late third quarter touchdown the Flashes kicked the PAT to trail by just one. Toledo would answer less than five minutes later to go up by eight but Kent State completed a 15-play drive to find the end zone with just over five minutes remaining. That score put the Flashes in position to cover but the two-point conversion attempt to make things even more interesting came up short.

Miami, OH (+7) 24, Ohio 21: The Bobcats never led in this game but the scoring traded off throughout the game and was tied twice in the fourth quarter as overtime was realistic to keep all spread outcomes in play. With about four minutes remaining Miami connected on Sam Sloman’s 53-yard field goal to take a 3-point lead and Ohio mangled its possession, winding up needing to go for it on 4th-and-23 while having a costly penalty and burning two timeouts.

Illinois (+16) 37, Michigan State 34: The Spartans seemed to be in complete control leading 28-3 early and still 31-10 through three quarters. Illinois would score a pair of touchdowns early in the fourth quarter to get back in the game and then got a 76-yard interception return touchdown. The PAT was missed as the Illini weren’t able to tie the game. Michigan State had to settle for a field goal however and the Illini put together a 13-play drive to go 75 yards in the final three minutes for the upset.

Purdue (-1) 24, Northwestern 22: The dormant Northwestern offense exploded for two first quarter touchdowns but Purdue would take a 21-16 lead by the end of the third quarter. Northwestern went back in front in the fourth but up by one, failed on the two-point try in what lurked as potentially big play relative to the spread with the Wildcats a slight favorite much of the week. Northwestern missed a field goal with 2:30 remaining in the game to leave the door open for Purdue to steal the win late. With about a minute remaining Aidan O’Connell was intercepted in Northwestern territory on 4th down but the play was wiped out with a pass interference call, handing Purdue a new set of downs 15 yards closer. The Boilermakers only gained two more yards and J.D. Dellinger connected from 39 yards for the Purdue win.

Texas San Antonio (+3) 24, Old Dominion 23: The Monarchs had a 23-10 lead through three quarters at home but allowed an 85-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter to wind up in a one-score game. The Roadrunners forced a punt and then put together perhaps their best drive of the season with a 14-play drive that included three 3rd down conversions. The touchdown with fewer than three minutes remaining tied the game and the PAT was good for the lead. Old Dominion approached midfield on its final drive but wound up fumbling on a sack as UTSA got the win.

USC (-5½) 31, Arizona State 26: This line climbed as it became clear that Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels wouldn’t play. USC scored four touchdowns in the first quarter but Arizona State would battle back, climbing within eight in the third quarter before a USC field goal made it an 11-point margin heading into the fourth quarter. The Sun Devils struck early in the fourth to trail by five with a two-point conversion try coming up short in a key play relative to the number. USC continued to fail to pick up first downs managing only three points in the final three quarters but the defense got an interception in the final minute to thwart a promising late drive from the Sun Devils. The fourth quarter touchdown from Arizona State put the scoring at 57, even with a common number during the week but past the late week total that fell to as low as 54½ with the quarterback change.

Mississippi (-28) 41, New Mexico State 3: The Rebels led just 17-3 before getting a touchdown in the final minute before halftime. Adding just seven in the third quarter the margin was right near the spread with a 31-3 edge into the fourth quarter. Mississippi completed a 98-yard drive to slip past the number early in the fourth and then added a late field goal for good measure.

Texas (-7) 27, Kansas State 24: A 14-0 Wildcats lead made the favorite cover for the Longhorns unlikely but Texas scored the next 24 points to lead by 10 early in the fourth quarter. After that short field touchdown drive Kansas State returned the kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown to get back within three however. Texas was held to a 3-and-out and Kansas State got a huge 3rd-and-long unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on its drive. That gain put Kansas State in field goal range and the game was tied at the 6:45 mark. Texas quickly approached the edge of field goal range and then found itself with 1st-and-goal from the Kansas State 2-yard line with a minute and a half to go. Texas did its best to burn the entire remaining clock instead of trying to score a touchdown but on 3rd and goal Sam Ehlinger had enough space to scamper into the end zone but an illegal formation play erased it. Texas eventually kicked a 26-yard field goal that was good and Kansas State didn’t get the ball again. Those laying points on the Longhorns with a spread that jumped from -5½ to -7 didn’t see Tom Herman’s late-game logic quite the same way.

UL-Monroe (+2½) 45, Georgia State 31: This game was tied 24-24 at halftime without consecutive scores for either team. UL-Monroe would take over with a 3-play 82-yard drive to lead by seven but Georgia State answered to leave the game knotted 31-31 through three quarters. A fumble, and two fourth down failures filled the next three Panthers possessions as the Warhawaks would add two touchdowns to pull away.

Wisconsin (-7½) 24, Iowa 22: The Badgers scored a touchdown just before halftime and then again late in the third quarter to emerge with a 21-6 edge. Iowa would put up a great late fight however with 10 points in the first six minutes of the fourth quarter around a Jack Coan interception as some familiarities to the Illinois collapse for Wisconsin emerged. On its field goal Iowa’s kicker was run into but the Hawkeyes opted to keep the points and stay down five rather than going for it on 4th-and-short down eight. The Badgers would burn a big chunk of clock but ultimately couldn’t put the game away, settling for a 29-yard field goal that was barely good. Iowa connected for a 75-yard touchdown pass on its first play and lined up for the tying two-point conversion. Quarterback Nate Stanley ran up the middle and was stopped just short. Wisconsin would reach the Iowa 11-yard-line before ultimately taking a knee in the final minute without adding points.

Baylor (-1½) 29, TCU 23: TCU led 9-0 at halftime looking to end Baylor’s undefeated run but the Bears would hit two field goals to trail 9-6 early in the fourth quarter, the second of which came on a 1-yard drive after inheriting great field position with an interception. Five straight punts followed before Baylor put together a late drive aided by a pass interference call, while also having an interception called off with a false start. The Bears went backwards from the TCU 22 and had to make a 51-yard field goal to force overtime as regulation didn’t feature a touchdown. Overtime would feature five straight touchdowns with Baylor going up by six leading the third session but unable to get the required two-point conversion. That score sealed an unfortunate ‘over’ despite 18 points in regulation. Max Duggan seemed to rush into the end zone to tie the game but on review he was ruled out at the 3-yard-line. TCU went backwards from there and eventually on 4th-and-goal the Baylor defense secured the win with an interception, getting the favorite cover as well while remaining at the front of the Big XII race.

Oklahoma (-14½) 42, Iowa State 41: Oklahoma led 35-14 at halftime and still led by 21 through three quarters. Iowa State got back within the number with a touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter. Oklahoma fumbled to give the ball right back but Iowa State was unable to score from 1st-and-goal. The defense forced a quick punt and went 80 yards in four plays to suddenly put the game back in play. Facing 3rd-and-7 Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts seemed to be trying to throw the ball away but wound up intercepted in bounds to give the Cyclones great field position. Brock Purdy led a touchdown drive and Matt Campbell made the call to go for the win with 24 seconds to go. Pressure came and Purdy made a throw on the money but egregious pass interference was ignored by the officials as the Sooners escaped.

Hawai’i (-9½) 42, San Jose State 40: The line on the late night game had a late jump to as high as -9½ from -7 to -8 most of the week. That appeared to matter with Hawai’i up nine early in the fourth quarter. San Jose State connected for a 40-yard touchdown pass to get within two but the Warriors burned more than five minutes for a 12-play touchdown drive to go back up by nine. The Warriors had a chance to hold that margin but on 4th-and-7 San Jose State converted in its own territory and a few plays later struck the end zone again with fewer than two minutes on the clock to confirm the underdog cover.

[Udog]

Week 12 Opening Odds