NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thur., Oct. 24 - Mon., Oct. 28)

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 8
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Eagles at Bills (-1 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
There was plenty of hype around Philadelphia (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) to start the season as a legitimate threat to win the NFC. The Eagles have been passed by the likes of the Saints, Packers, and 49ers for that distinction, as Philadelphia needs to bounce back quickly to return to the playoff discussion. The last two weeks have been a disaster, at least from a defensive standpoint as the Eagles allowed 38 points at Minnesota and 37 points at Dallas, both losses. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road while handing Green Bay its only loss of the season back in Week 4.

The Bills (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) continue to take advantage of a weak schedule as Buffalo held off Miami as 17-point favorites, 31-21. Buffalo scored its most points in a game this season, but also allowed its most points after limiting its previous five opponents to 17 points or fewer. All five teams the Bills have beaten own losing records, including three teams that have won one game or fewer (Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets). Buffalo has failed to cover in two home victories as a favorite, while compiling a 1-4 ATS mark as chalk at New Era Field since last season.

From a totals standpoint, the Eagles have hit the OVER in four of five opportunities with totals of 50 or below, while the Bills drilled their first OVER of the season after five consecutive UNDERS.

Best Bet: Eagles 27, Bills 23

Panthers at 49ers (-5 ½, 42 ½) – 4:05 PM EST
Only two undefeated teams remain in the NFL as San Francisco (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) returns home after a 9-0 shutout of Washington. The 49ers failed to cash as 10-point favorites, but it was the third consecutive time San Francisco held an opponent to single-digits. Due to a scheduling quirk, the 49ers are hosting their first NFC foe of the season in Week 8 after beating the Steelers and Browns already at Levi’s Stadium.

The Panthers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) return from the bye week after causing seven turnovers in a 37-26 victory over the Buccaneers in London. Carolina improved to 4-0 SU/ATS since Kyle Allen took over at quarterback for the injured Cam Newton, as the former University of Houston standout has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions. The Panthers own a perfect 3-0 record on the record (including that London victory), while running back Christian McCaffrey will be happy not to see Tampa Bay, who held him to below 40 yards rushing twice, compared to averaging 137.5 yards rushing in the other four games.

Carolina is making its first visit to San Francisco since the 2017 opener when the Panthers blew out the 49ers, 23-3 as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Panthers will be tested in their next three road games as after the 49ers’ contest on Sunday, Carolina travels to Green Bay (Week 10) and New Orleans (Week 12) over the next month. San Francisco has a quick turnaround as the Niners venture to Arizona on Halloween night on Thursday.

Best Bet: 49ers 20, Panthers 16

Browns at Patriots (-10 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Besides San Francisco, New England (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) is the other unbeaten team in the NFL, which is not a surprise. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, while pulling off their second shutout of 2019 by blanking the Jets, 33-0. New England created six turnovers, including intercepting Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold four times. The Pats have dealt with plenty of injuries on offense, but New England has eclipsed the 30-point mark six times, while outgaining three opponents by 200 yards or more.

The Browns (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) travel to Foxborough following their bye week after blowing a 14-point lead in a 32-28 home defeat to Seattle in Week 6. Cleveland has yet to win a home game this season at 0-3, but the Browns’ two victories have come away from FirstEnergy Stadium against the Jets and Ravens. In their only opportunity as an underdog of a touchdown or more this season, the Browns dropped 40 points in a blowout of Baltimore, as Cleveland is listed as a double-digit ‘dog for the first time since cashing in a 21-18 defeat at New Orleans receiving 10 points in 2018.

New England has compiled a 3-1 ATS ledger this season as a double-digit favorite, while posting an impressive 7-1 ATS mark since the start of 2018 when laying at least 10 points. The Browns and Patriots haven’t hooked up since 2016 in Cleveland when New England easily cashed as 10-point favorites in a 33-13 rout.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Browns 21

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 49 ½ - Giants at Lions
Detroit got its offense going last week against Minnesota, but couldn’t slow down the Vikings in a 42-30 defeat. The Lions have allowed at least 23 points in five of six games this season, while the Giants have been torched in six of seven games, by giving up 27 or more six times. Rewinding back to the Green Bay debacle two weeks ago, Detroit was limited to five field goals and one touchdown, as the Lions are moving the ball, it’s just about cashing in and these two teams can have a track meet at Ford Field.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Colts are coming off a huge divisional win over the Texans to move into first place of the AFC South. Now, Indianapolis looks to avoid a letdown against Denver, who is fresh off an ugly home loss to Kansas City last week. The Broncos dealt away their top wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco earlier in the week, but Denver did pick up a victory in its last road game at Los Angeles in Week 6. The Colts have won four of their last five games with the lone loss in this stretch coming to the Raiders as 5 ½-point favorites, which happened right after a home win against the Falcons.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Jaguars opened up as 4 ½-point favorites against the dismal Jets on Monday, but after New York’s performance against New England, that number spiked to seven at the Westgate Superbook by the weekend. Jacksonville owns a 4-2 ATS record with rookie Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback following last week’s victory at Cincinnati. The Jets have scored a total of 20 points on the road this season in losses to the Patriots and Eagles, but Sam Darnold makes his first away start of 2019 for New York.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The last six teams to take the field prior to hosting a Thursday night game this season have covered the spread, while the past five squads have won outright. The team in this situation in Week 8 is Arizona, who hosts San Francisco next Thursday. In fact, all five of these clubs that won all did so by double-digits, but the Cardinals (who travel to New Orleans) are the first underdog in this situation since Week 2 when the Jaguars visited the Texans.

[Udog]

SNF - Packers at Chiefs
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It turns out that maybe I wasn't the only one who questioned the authenticity of Carson Wentz being a legitimate #1 QB in this league last week, as after that brutal performance by the Eagles – from top to bottom – there was much more chatter and criticism directed Wentz's way.

What made me laugh though was HC Doug Pederson's post-game press conference comments about “the Eagles all needing to look in the mirror” to essentially get things fixed. That comment fits oh so well with my metaphor of Wentz being the “Dorian Gray” of the NFL, and being so vain that it's simply about 'looking' the part at all times with this team. We will see if the Eagles are able to turn things around or if the wheels are about to completely fall off of their 2019 season, and early action this week for their game in Buffalo has already come the Bills way.

But this piece is all about SNF games and this week we've got a non-conference showdown that lost much of it's bite with the QB Patrick Mahomes injury a week ago. I'm sure SNF producers were salivating at the potential of this matchup when the schedule came out, but it's only Aaron Rodgers coming to the party now and much of that excitement has probably waned. That doesn't mean this can't be a great game between two potential Super Bowl candidates, as Matt Moore isn't thrust into duty in a relatively unprepared manner this week, and Packers fans are hoping Aaron Rodgers and company continue to do their thing.

So let's get right into the game, and I assure you there won't be any literature metaphors bleeding into the analysis this week.

Total Talk

The total is actually the better betting option of the two (side or total) for this game in my view and it's where the bulk of my focus will be.

Yes, everyone knows that SNF games are still perfect to the 'under' this year after Philly and Dallas couldn't climb over their number in a ho-hum 2nd half after putting up 34 points in the first 30 minutes. That makes it a perfect 0-8 O/U on the season for Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth and the SNF crew, a run that's rather absurd and phenomenal all at the same time.

It's that run that will get talked up plenty this week as we've got a backup QB in Moore going, and with the bigger chunk of that perception being more about Mahomes being gone, I'm sure you will hear plenty of support for going low on the total this week. After all, the 'over' has yet to cash on SNF, and backup QB's are backup QB's for a reason right. A number that was sitting as high as 49.5 at some places earlier in the week is already sitting at 47.5 at the time of this writing, and I'm sure we could see it trend even lower.

Now one thing I do believe supports the low side here is the theory that going low on a total with a team that scored 40+ points the week prior (Green Bay) is something to consider. But outside of that, and the completely random SNF 'under' record, that's about it. If you want to follow the herd all across the grid looking to go 'under' this total, then by all means do so. But give me a chance to at least provide some counter points.

To start, non-conference games like this are ones where I believe you generally want to lean 'over' in terms of a blind/initial reaction because there just isn't the hatred or ingrained knowledge of what opponents run as there is in conference/division games. The last three weeks alone we've seen AFC/NFC games post a 8-6 O/U record blind as it is.

Taking it a step further, non-conference games the past four weeks have averaged 49.2 points per game when you eliminate those contests that featured both sides having losing records (as of today). That eliminates the “thriller” between Washington and Miami for one – a game that finished with 33 points, as well as a 37-point effort by the Jets/Eagles, and a 34-point effort from Tennessee and Atlanta.

That's quite the number in regards to where this week's total currently sits at 47.5, and it includes games like the 19 total points New Orleans and Jacksonville had in Week 6, as well as the 34-point effort from the Cleveland/San Francisco MNF game a few weeks back.

Furthermore, when you narrow things down to just the past three weeks and only include AFC/NFC games between teams that are currently .500 or better in the standings, you get a 2-1 O/U record with an average point total of 52.33 points. Obviously that's not the biggest sample size, but this Green Bay team accounted for most of that production and considering they are involved in this game, it is worth consideration.

Moreover, If you were to look at all the AFC/NFC games the past four weeks that featured a team that currently has 5 or more wins like both the Packers and Chiefs do, you'd get an average point total of 47.25 points – right on this number right.

But eliminate that Saints/Jags game with 19 points featuring Teddy Checkdown – I mean Bridgewater – and all of a sudden that number bumps up to 51.28 points per game over the past four weeks; going 4-3 O/U in the process. The past two weeks alone – again omitting that Saints/Jags game – is 3-1 O/U with an average of 55.25 points scored. Oh, and the two games that had either the Chiefs or Packers involved finished with at least 64 points.

Finally, you can zero in on the two respective teams involved in this game and see plenty of reasons – even with Matt Moore under center – that can lead to points being put up.

Kansas City's defense is still among the bottom four teams in the entire NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (148.9) with just Cleveland and the winless Dolphins and Bengals being worse. They give up five yards per rush as a part of that stat line, and Green Bay may not be the first team you think of when thinking of running teams, but the Packers can use their passing attack, or just the threat of their passing attack, to open up plenty of running lanes in general and have huge days on the ground.

For KC to give up the yardage they do and only allow 21.4 points per game is about as smoke and mirrors as it gets, and considering four of the five non-division opponents the Chiefs have faced this year has put up at least 26 points on the scoreboard, you've got to like Aaron Rodgers chances of having another big offensive day.

On the flip side of things, Moore will have a gameplan that's catered to what he does well with a full 10 days to get ready for this contest, and it's not like he's incapable of finding success at this levels with all the playmakers he's got around him. He had no problem hitting WR Tyreek Hill in stride for a long TD last Thursday, and while it was only a one-off, it does show you what the kind of potential is there.

Green Bay's defense ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in rushing yards allowed as well (128.9 per game), and at 381 yards allowed per game overall, they are the worst NFL team in that category that currently has a winning record – KC isn't much better with 377.4 yards allowed per game. So there is plenty of smoke and mirrors on Green Bay's defense as well, as they've allowed 22 or more points in four straight games themselves, and that run would be 24 or more points allowed in all four games had the Lions not settled for so many FG's and been burned by suspect calls in their MNF affair.

Had Mahomes been available for this game, this total would have been in the upper 50's at a bare minimum, and while he is the reigning MVP of the league and is a dynamic playmaker, this is far too much of an adjustment for a backup QB that has plenty of starting/playing NFL experience in his career already.

But thanks to it being a downgrade regardless, and the SNF 'under' narrative bleeding into every conversation about this game now, perception and reality don't really meet up in my eyes.

Side Spiel

Green Bay is currently laying 4 points on the road, and to be honest, I'm not sure if that's where it should be as there is just no interest from me in backing either side here. I'm sure it will be the Packers who get plenty of support from the betting public as this game inches closer, and with the Packers likely being tied into so many teasers and parlays for the day, chances are the oddsmakers will be rooting hard for KC to keep this game competitive.

Given my thoughts on the total, I would suggest that's probably going to be the case, and depending how much support Green Bay ends up getting by kickoff – VegasInsider.com betting percentages currently show about 70% support here late on Wednesday afternoon – the contrarian in me would have to side with Kansas City ATS or nothing, but 'nothing' would be a -1000 favorite right now.

Final Thoughts

For handicappers that prefer the lazy route of riding streaks for no other sake then riding a streak, this is a game I'm sure you'll here plenty of 'under' recommendations for because of the SNF 'under' record this year. But those same bettors know that all streaks come to an end, and this game between these two teams, in this perceived spot (SNF 'unders' are “unbeatable” and now we got a backup QB to boot), does feel like the perfect storm in terms of seeing this 'under' run with Michaels and Collinsworth on the mic finally come to an end.

There has been too much of an over-adjustment because of one guy, both defenses are still very suspect that they resemble a mirage, both offenses have so much scoring talent outside of the one guy who just happens to be KC's QB this week, and the narrative of SNF 'unders' being easy cashes has hit a fever pitch.

That does nothing but scream 'over' to me, and that's by far the best play for this game in my view.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


TATE OF THE ART

Golden Tate will face his former team the Detroit Lions this Sunday and the timing couldn’t be better for the receiver and the New York Giants’ passing attack. The Lions traded starting safety Quandre Diggs earlier in the week and top corner Darius Slay has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest.

With Diggs and Slay starting in Week 7, the Lions allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for a season-high 337 yards, 100 yards more than their season average. This week, New York will be without Sterling Shepard once again as Tate will remain the focal point of Daniel Jones’ passing attack.

Tate will have the revenge angle working for him and is on the heels of 20 catches for 182 yards and score and was responsible for 47 percent of Daniel Jones’ passing yards over the last two weeks.

Take the Over on Tate’s receiving yard total of 54.5 and Over on 4.5 receptions.


THREE-PACK OF QB RUSHING TOTALS

Russell Wilson (26.5): Wilson sits fourth among QBs with 90 yards rushing over the last four games and is 3-1 over that stretch in clearing his rushing total. Wilson isn’t passing his totals by much, but he is still cashing and will look to keep the trend going into this week's game in Atlanta as the Falcons have allowed 102 yards rushing to their last three mobile quarterbacks (sorry Jared Goff). Over 26.5 yards rushing.

Daniel Jones (18.5): Danny Dimes is 3-2 in clearing his rushing total this year as his modest lines are always susceptible to the Over in two or three rushes. Jones sits ninth amongst QBs in rushing yards and didn’t take over the job until Week 3. It helps to have teams key on Saquon Barkley as well, allowing Jones to break bigger plays when keeping on RPOs as he has 63 yards rushing in the two games with the star running back in the lineup. Over 18.5.

Kyler Murray (35.5): Murray has the second-most QB rushing yards over the last four weeks as the rookie is growing and getting more comfortable with his abilities. However, now might be a good time to get some value on the Under as the hype is starting to get loud and New Orleans is legit, holding opposing QBs to just four yards on four attempts since Week 4 (Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott). Under 35.5.


BETTING ON A BELL BREAKOUT

Le’Veon Bell is a name that we haven’t thrown around here much. Having Luke Falk run the offense didn’t help any, but the former Steeler averaged 4.12 yards a carry against the Cowboys and Patriots with Sam Darnold back under center, which is much closer to his career average of 4.3.

With J-E-T-S coming off an awful 33-0 primetime loss to the Pats, we expect New York to come out strong against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 27th-ranked rush defense who will now be without DT Marcell Dareus.

We are banking for a Bell breakout game. Take Bell’s Over 68.5 rushing yards.


THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL

We are at that time in the schedule where the weather can be a big factor. The forecast doesn’t look too nice in Buffalo for this weekend's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 100 percent chance of rain in the morning and a 60 percent at game time. Heavy winds (~27 mph) are also expected and temperature in the mid-50s.

With Buffalo averaging 20 points a game at home and the Eagles scoring 21 on the road, it will be a daunting task for either of these teams to outplay their averages in poor playing conditions. The Bills are also 4-2 o/u this year and 2-1 o/u on totals below 43 while the Eagles are 2-2 o/u on the road this year and hit the Under on their lowest total in Week 5 at 43.

We are jumping on the Under 42 and hope New Era Field looks like FedEx Field last week.

*BONUS PLAY: Under longest field goal 45.5 (-112)


LAST CALL ON CARSON

The Atlanta Falcons have the No.4 rush DVOA defense but will have a difficult time Sunday versus Chris Carson who is averaging 24.5 carries for 103 yards a game over his last four. Those last four games included a 118-yard performance versus the No. 2 rush DVOA defense.

The Seattle Seahawks won’t abandon the run, like many of the Falcons’ opponents, as they are running the ball at the third-highest rate since Week 5. Carson is the alpha-dog in the backfield hitting 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps over the last three and hitting a season-high 89 percent last week.

The Seahawks/Falcons prop markets aren’t currently open as books are waiting to see if Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will suit up Sunday. Once it opens, we will take the Over on Carson’s rushing yards on any total below 85 yards.


DEFENSIVE CARE

We talked about how bad Baker Mayfield has been this year and how difficult a task he has ahead of his matchup with the best DVOA defense in the New England Patriots. Today, we are going to try to talk you into another great prop bet that is paying +200.

The Pats have scored three defensive touchdowns, which is the second-most in the league. Conversely, Tom Brady’s offense has allowed three defensive TDs while their special teams have crossed the plane twice to date.

Combine these New England stats with the fact that the Cleveland Browns are averaging three giveaways a game over the last four weeks, and we are hopping on Sunday’s prop bet of a special team or defensive touchdown scored and hitting the yes at +200.


PUBLIC ENEMY NUMBER ONE

Did you lose money on Melvin Gordon’s suck attack last Sunday? Yes, us too. We are going to focus our fade hate on the one-yard fumbler this week ahead of his match versus the Chicago Bears.

In Gordon’s 36 carries since coming back from his holdout, the runner has plodded to three-or-less yards on 27 of those carries with a long of seven yards. We may see Austin Ekeler’s snap count increase in Week 8 after seeing 59 percent last week and Gordon fumbling twice over his last 12 runs.

Want more reasons to get your revenge on Melvin? The Los Angeles Chargers’ opponent, the Chicago Bears, are fifth in the league in yards per rush attempt against at 3.6.. Hop on the hate-wagon and take Gordon’s Under on his total of 54.5 rushing yards.

[Udog]

NFL Week 8 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) will not play Sunday night against Green Bay. Mahomes is worth more than a touchdown to the line, and the Chiefs are 4.5-point home underdogs.

NFL Week 8 includes a Sunday night showdown that got a little less attractive due to a big absence. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

INJURY IMPACT

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: In the Week 7 Thursday nighter, quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated knee. Oddsmakers never thought Mahomes would actually play Sunday night at home against the Packers, and that was factored into the line all week, ahead of Friday’s confirmation that he would not play.

“Mahomes is worth 8-9 points to the line,” Osterman told Covers. “It’s 8 points in this case, because the line crosses zero. If it were a line where the Chiefs were significant favorites to start off with, it would be a little more than 8 points.” The Chiefs opened +3 and stretched to +4.5, with the total going from 48 to 49, then down to 47.5.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: It sounds as if Drew Brees will return to action, after sitting out since suffering a thumb injury in Week 2. But as with Mahomes, that was factored into an opening line of Saints -7.5 against the visiting Cardinals. That number then shot up to -10.5. “The line as it is now is with Brees playing. There’s probably about a 3-point difference between him and Teddy Bridgewater.”

Saints running back Alvin Kamara (ankle/knee) is questionable, but even if he returns, Osterman said the already-high number likely wouldn’t move further.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams (toe) is out for the third straight game, as he won’t play at Kansas City on Sunday night. But once again, that was built into the line, which stood at Packers -4.5 on Friday night.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Quarterback Matt Ryan is an iron man, starting 154 consecutive games over the past decade. But he’s questionable with an ankle injury, with a decision expected Saturday for Sunday’s home tilt against the Seahawks. This line has been off the board all week. “With Matt Ryan playing, the line will be around Seattle -3.5 to -4. Without Ryan, it will be around Seattle -7, maybe even -7.5.”

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Rookie running back Josh Jacobs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry while rushing for 554 yards through six games, has a shoulder injury and is questionable for Sunday’s contest at Houston. “I would expect Jacobs to move the line a half-point if he’s out. He has proven to be a significant piece for the Raiders.” Oakland is a 6.5-point underdog.


WEATHER WATCH

CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: There’s a very strong chance of Sunday rain in Foxboro, along with winds of 10 to 20 mph. “The total is down a half-point. I would expect it to move another half-point if the forecast (Saturday) shows more potential for rain.” In fact, after opening at 45.5 and dipping to 45 early Friday afternoon, the total ticked to 44.5 later Friday afternoon.

PHILADELPHIA AT BUFFALO: New Era Field has a 60 percent chance of seeing precipitation, and winds of 20 to 30 mph are also expected. “There’s definitely some cause for concern in the kicking game. The total has gone down a half-point, and I’d expect it to drop more, depending on the wind speed.” The total was at 42 Friday.


PROS VS. JOES

CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots opened -10, shot to -13, then dropped to -10.5 by lunch hour Friday in Vegas. “We took a bet from a really sharp player on Browns +12. The public is all over the Pats, like always.”

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened -6.5 and were down to -5 Friday morning. “The Colts are our leading ticket-count team and have the most parlay bets of any team on the board, but the line has moved in Denver’s favor.” So the public is on Indy, while the wiseguys played Denver.


REVERSE LINE MOVES

CAROLINA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers dropped from -6.5 to -5.5, thanks to sharp play on the Panthers. But more money – no surprise, public action – is on the unbeaten 49ers at The SuperBook.

CINCINNATI VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS: In this London clash at Wembley Stadium, the Rams opened -13 and dropped to -11.5, though more cash is on L.A. “The public will bet almost any team against the Bengals,” Osterman said, noting the defending NFC champion Rams aren’t just any team. “Some sharp money on the Bengals.”

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT CHICAGO BEARS: “We’re seeing the parlay money show up on the Bears, but the line has dropped significantly. We’re down to Bears -3.5, from -6.”

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: As noted above in Pros vs. Joes, there's more money for the Colts, but the line moved toward Denver.

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 8
Tony Mejia

Giants at Lions (-6.5/49.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Saquon Barkley returned from a month-long absence and finished with 80 yards from scrimmage against the Cardinals last week, so New York aims to get him really going as they try to end a three-game losing streak. One of the main guys standing in his way will be former teammate Damon “Snacks” Harrison, who is now attempting to be one of the main lines of defense to help Detroit stop the run. The Lions’ DT is a noted run stopper but hasn’t been able to prevent his team from ranking fifth-worst in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground.

Speaking of determined former teammates, Giants WR Golden Tate will look to continue emerging as one of rookie Daniel Jones’ favorite targets, especially since Sterling Shepard remains out with a concussion. Detroit’s top corner, Darius Slay, is out with a hamstring issue, which doesn’t bode well for the Lions improving on a pass defense that ranks 31st in yardage allowed. Matthew Stafford won’t have RB Kerryon Johnson back until at least Week 16 due to a knee injury that required surgery, so rookie Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic will have to fill in. The Lions have lost three straight despite averaging 27.3 points, surrendering 33 points within that span.

Bucs at Titans (-2.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This was circled on the schedule as a chance to see the top picks of the 2015 Draft square off, but Marcus Maritoa won’t be getting in unless there’s a need to replace Ryan Tannehill, who took his job and helped produce a 23-20 win over the Chargers last week. There’s also always the possibility that Bruce Arians loses patience with Jameis Winston, who has thrown 10 interceptions this season, including five last time we saw him overseas in an embarrassing loss to Carolina. Both teams still have illusions of saving their season and playing one meaningful game after another next month, so this one is vital to keeping those hopes alive.

Winston won’t have TE O.J. Howard to work with but has plenty of options in top WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who will be working against a injury-riddled secondary. Veteran Cameron Brate will fill in for Howard, while Tennessee will need to replace CBs Chris Milton and Adoree Jackson in addition to LB Sharif Finch. Standout tight end Delanie Walker wasn’t able to make it back from an ankle issue, so Jonnu Smith will be pressed into a larger role. LB Kamalei Correa is listed as questionable. Tampa’s biggest remaining variable is veteran RT Demar Dotson (hamstring), who is hoping to be healthy enough to play. The Bucs will already be minus RG Alex Cappa. A pleasant day awaits both teams from a weather standpoint, so this one will be strictly about execution. The Bucs’ only wins this season have come outside of Tampa Bay. Their last fiour games have all surpassed the posted total.

Chargers at Bears (-3.5/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Chargers could get back DE Melvin Ingram back from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury, which would definitely help a defense decimated by injuries for most of the season a little more teeth. DTs Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones will remain out, which is good news for a Bears’ running game that has been anemic. Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t been good either, but he does have an elite option in WR Allen Robinson, who continues to be the lone consistent source of production on an offense that has been incredibly disappointing.

Philip Rivers’ go-to guy, standout WR Keenan Allen, sat out practices with a hamstring issue and may not be able to participate. RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are dangerous options out of the backfield that could help the Bears’ defense from being too aggressive. Khalil Mack comes off an unproductive effort against New Orleans, while safety Eddie Jackson will be gunning for the Chargers’ backs, so there will be some fun matchups to monitor even if both teams continue to struggle to move the ball. Weather won’t be a factor in Chicago since neither wind nor bitter cold has settled in yet.

Seahawks (-8.5/50) at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Falcons ruled Matt Ryan out due to an ankle injury on Sunday, so Matt Schaub will be at the controls hoping to snap a five-game losing streak and keep the buzzards from engulfing beleaguered head coach Dan Quinn entering next week’s bye. Considering the season appears lost already, it seems like a change is coming. WR Mohamed Sanu has already been traded, so Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will serve as Schaub’s primary targets against a Seattle defense looking to bounce back from a tough day against the elusive Lamar Jackson. The Seahawks have allowed 26 or more points in five of the last six games but haven’t dropped consecutive games since the beginning of last November.

Adding safety Quandre Diggs from the Lions should help, but he hasn’t done much work in practice. If Bradley McDougald (back) can play, that would lessen the need for Diggs to try and rush back from a hamstring issue and in spite of limited experience with Seattle’s system. DE Ziggy Ansah is hoping to return to make life tougher for Schaub, but DT Quinton Jefferson is out. The Seahawks have major question marks on the offensive end with tackles Germain Ifedi and Duane Brown both listed as questionable. Russell Wilson has proven he doesn’t require much time to put together some magic, but it would help to be able to have at least a little time to work against a vulnerable Atlanta secondary.

Jets at Jaguars (-6.5/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Sam Darnold aims to bounce back from his dreadful Monday night performance against a secondary that has held up decently since moving Jalen Ramsey to the Rams and wants to show they’ve turned the page. Gardner Minshew will look to improve on his last home start, a rough outing against New Orleans that cooled off some of the hype surrounding the sixth-round pick. The Jets briefly got LB C.J. Mosley back to lead their defense but have lost him to a groin injury again. CB Trumaine Johnson, who was picked on by the Jets earlier in the week, is dealing with an ankle injury and could be a game-time decision.

Darnold complained of a toe injury that had him hobbling around, so we’ll see how careful New York is with its franchise quarterback, particularly considering its offensive line issues. Tackle Kelvin Beachum has already been ruled out. The Jags’ won’t have DT Marcell Dareus for the foreseeable future due to a core injury but have seen rookie Josh Allen emerge with sacks in three straight games and still have Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue anchoring the defensive front. Minshew has WR Marqise Lee back from a foot injury and saw Dede Westbrook return with a productive game last week. Jacksonville is hoping to be at .500 with Houston coming to town next week, which would restore their playoff hopes despite a rollercoaster ride of a first half of the season. Temperatures are set to be in the mid-80s in North Florida, and the threat of thunderstorms exists.

Eagles at Bills (-1.5/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: It’s a good thing both of the quarterbacks in this one boast some of the NFL’s strongest arms since they may be dealing with wind gusts that could reach 40 miles per hour. Both Carson Wentz and Josh Allen can make plays with their feet. While Philly is certainly the more desperate team in this matchup, looking to get back to .500 and wash the stench of Sunday night’s brutal performance at the rival Cowboys, they’re nowhere near as healthy. Tackle Jason Peters will miss another game with a knee issue and a vulnerable defense can at least look forward to facing a team that hasn’t proven capable of consistently pushing the ball downfield. Given the wind factor, Philly could benefit from being able to keep everything in front of them.

Philadelphia has had issues with its secondary, while Buffalo has been sound with elite CB Tre’Davious White leading the way. They do have to hold up this week with CB Kevin Johnson (neck), safety Kurt Coleman (hamstring) and LB Corey Thompson (ankle) all listed as questionable. Buffalo has surrendered more than 20 points only once this season and may have let its guard down some in last week’s 31-21 win over Miami in the first of three straight home games it is looking to use to solidify its status as a legitimate playoff threat. Last week’s win over the Dolphins was the first game Buffalo has participated to surpass the posted total.

Panthers at 49ers (-4.5/41), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: A well-rested Christian McCaffrey will look to continue a tremendous season by spoiling San Francisco’s perfect run as the Stanford product returns to town. He’s behind Dalvin Cook in yards per game and can pass him with a big day here, but the Niners’ defense has emerged as the driving force for their undefeated surge. LB Kwon Alexander and safety Jimmie Ward will look to contend with McCaffrey and an offense that Kyle Allen has looked sharp running as he’s produced a 4-0 mark in place of Cam Newton. Carolina has averaged 31.3 points and will playing a fourth road game in six weeks, coming off their bye after a 37-26 victory over the Bucs that was fueled by turnovers.

Fires in Northern California are being fueled by hurricane-force winds that should be less of a factor by kickoff but could still make passing the ball downfield an issue, allowing both defenses to press up. Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson will be tasked with hanging with keeping RB Matt Breida and TE George Kittle. Tackles Mike McGlinchey and Joe Staley remain out, as does fullback Kyle Juszczyk, which limits how complex Kyle Shanahan can get with is playcalling against the Carolina defense. The 49ers will have new WR Emmanuel Sanders in the mix and have cleared Dante Pettis (knee) and Deebo Samuel (groin), so Jimmy Garoppolo will have plenty of options to work with as he tries to find a more consistent form.

[Udog]

Despite reports that he was not expected to play, Chargers' WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) is active for today's game in Chicago vs. the Bears.

Pointspread: Bears -3.5
Total: 41

[Udog]

Falcons' QB Matt Ryan (ankle) will not play today at home vs. Seahawks. 38-year-old Matt Schaub will handle quarterback duties.

Pointspread: Seahawks -7.5
Total: 50




NFL Betting Stats heading into Sunday of Wk 8:

Road Teams: 66-39-2 ATS
Home Teams: 39-66-2 ATS

Favorites: 43-62-2 ATS
Underdogs: 62-43-2 ATS

Home Faves: 23-46-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 16-20 ATS

Road Faves: 20-16 ATS
Road Dogs: 46-23-2 ATS

O/U: 49-58

[Udog]

NFL Week 9 opening odds and early action: Patriots-Ravens quickly draws two-way play
Patrick Everson

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have put together a 13-game win streak. New England opened -5 at Baltimore, the Ravens immediately got bet at +5 and +4.5, then New England drew a $31,045 wager.

NFL Week 9 is on deck, and the Sunday night game is already on the move. We check in on the opening odds and early action for that matchup and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England hasn’t lost since the middle of last December, going 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS. In Week 8, the Patriots (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore leads the AFC North at 5-2 SU after winning its last three before a Week 8 bye. In Week 7, the Ravens (2-5 ATS) snapped a five-game spread-covering slide, knocking off Seattle 30-16 as 3-point road underdogs.

“We opened Patriots -5 and saw money come in on Baltimore at +5 and +4.5,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “Then we took a bet for $31,045 on the Patriots -4. The Ravens will be a huge-need game for the books everywhere next Sunday night, especially if the afternoon games are chalky.”

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

Kansas City was without Patrick Mahomes in the Week 8 Sunday nighter, but Matt Moore and Co. gave Green Bay all it could handle. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) scored 17 straight second-quarter points to erase a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and were in it the rest of the way, losing 31-24 as 5-point home ‘dogs.

Minnesota returns from its bye week looking to build on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

With Mahomes’ Week 9 status unclear, The SuperBook held off on posting the opening number for this game. But Murray offered a little insight into where the line might land if Moore is still under center.

“It would depend a lot on the result of (the Sunday night) game and how K.C. and Moore look without Mahomes,” Murray said during the Packers-Chiefs tilt, in which Green Bay was a 5-point road chalk. “But Minnesota is considered slightly better than Green Bay, so it would be something close to what Packers-Chiefs was. Maybe a touch higher, unless K.C. wins, then a touch lower.”

That being the case, Murray said if Mahomes returns, the Chiefs will be short home favorites.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

San Francisco remained in elite company through eight weeks, sticking with New England as the only unbeaten outfits. The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) steamrolled Carolina 51-13 as 4.5-point favorites Sunday.

Arizona is better than expected this year, with a rookie coach and quarterback, but its three-game SU and ATS win streak ended in Week 8. The Cardinals went to New Orleans as 12.5-point pups and were dealt a 31-9 setback.

“We opened 49ers -7.5 and are still there,” Murray said. “Arizona will be one of the biggest needs of the week for us in the NFL. A ton of moneyline parlay and teaser wagers will start with the 49ers.”

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Philadelphia got a much-needed Week 8 win, snapping a two-game skid to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) shuffled over Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road Sunday.

Chicago looks little like the squad that last season went 12-4 SU and ATS, leading the league in spread-covers. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) held a 16-7 third-quarter advantage against the Los Angeles Chargers, but didn’t score again in a 17-16 loss laying 3.5 points at home Sunday.

“We opened Eagles -4.5 and have been bet up to -5,” Murray said. “It’s hard to imagine people wanting to bet on Chicago right now.”

[Udog]

MNF - Dolphins at Steelers
Tony Mejia

Miami at Pittsburgh (-14, 43.5), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

Every season, we seem to get a couple of those games that leave us wondering how they were included among the NFL’s marquee Monday night offerings. Don’t they want us to watch?

There was no way to envision that Ben Roethlisberger would be sidelined for the season, leaving the Steelers (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) in dire straits. The Dolphins (0-6, 2-4) opted to turn themselves into one of the worst teams in league history once the schedule was already announced, executing their fire sale in the preseason to suck the life out of their remaining players.

Still, someone should apologize for sticking the nation with Miami at Pittsburgh as if it were ever worthy of such a stage. The NBA should send thank you notes and has to be pleased with its decision to still have their free preview of League Pass in place as it will likely attract some eyeballs it may not have gathered if the night’s game were, say, Packers at Chiefs.

The last time these teams met on Monday Night Football, the Steelers won 3-0, scoring with 20 seconds left. They were a heavy favorite that night too in a QB matchup that featured Big Ben against John Beck. Let's cross our fingers that we don't see a revival of that type of game from 12 years ago.

The on-field product should ideally benefit from both of these teams coming in after arguably their top performances of the season.

The Steelers went out to Los Angeles in Week 6 and took a 24-0 lead on the Chargers before holding on for a 24-17 win as a six-point underdog (+235 ML) in a stadium packed with fans clad in black and yellow. Despite undrafted rookie Delvin “Duck” Hodges making his first pro start, the Steelers’ defense capitalized on an early L.A. turnover and overwhelmed Philip Rivers and his unit over the first three quarters before holding on for a 24-17 win.

Pittsburgh, which is 3-0-1 against the number in its last four, was on its bye last week, allowing Mason Rudolph to heal effectively enough from a concussion to reclaim his starting job.

Miami hosted Buffalo eight days ago and led in the second quarter for the first time all season, actually holding an advantage into the fourth. It then surrendered 22 points in a 31-21 win that doesn’t properly indicate how close the game was since Bills’ DB Micah Hyde took an onside kick into the end zone for the game’s final points with 1:38 left. The Dolphins covered a 17-point spread and have actually cashed in each of the last few weeks.

First-year head coach Brian Flores has been put in an awful position by the organization but has managed to put together a team that now looks willing to compete after appearing dispirited through the first few weeks. Guys openly asked out after the front office traded a number of their leaders and most talented players just before the regular-season began, clearly turning the page and attempting to position themselves to finish with the league’s worst record.

In ending up a successful two-point conversion shy of beating visiting Washington in Week 6 after nearly erasing all of a 17-3 fourth-quarter deficit, Miami nearly deviated from its tank job thanks to the effectiveness of backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The veteran came on for an inconsistent Josh Rosen and generated offense with some accurate passes downfield. In a puzzling move given the state of the franchise, Flores awarded Fitzpatrick back the job he lost entering Week 3. He correctly believes that gives the Dolphins their best chance to win, which goes against the point of the entire season.

Free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, one of the players who was exiled after being unhappy with the team’s direction, will now lineup against Miami as a key member of the Steelers’ secondary, having already picked off a pass and forced a fumble. The No. 11 pick in the ’18 NFL Draft wasn’t thrilled with being a rover in Flores’ alignment and hated playing for a team that was essentially mailing it in, so he requested a deal and ended up being moved in a package that includes the Steelers’ first-round pick in April.

Pittsburgh is certainly in a state of flux due to the offseason cutting of ties with receiver Antonio Brown on the heels of a well-publicized contract dispute with RB Le’Veon Bell, now with the Jets. Roethlisberger’s season-ending elbow injury after a 28-26 Week 2 loss in Seattle compounded matters, but the acquisition of Fitzgerald and the win over the Chargers on the heels of an OT setback against the rival Ravens suggests the Steelers have a lot of fight left. This is the first of three straight home games, so holding serve as a heavy favorite against Miami will put them in position to get back to .500 on Sunday against the visiting Colts.

Following an 0-3 start, that would be quite an accomplishment given the adversity to date. Rudolph hasn’t taken the field in over three weeks after being knocked out cold by Baltimore safety Earl Thomas but put together a solid run as a starter, playing effectively in a 24-20 loss at San Francisco that the Steelers covered in before beating the Bengals 27-3 on Sept. 30 in a Monday night debut that featured 24-for-28 passing and TD tosses to James Conner and rookie Diontae Johnson.

Although he’s operated mostly out of shotgun and hasn’t been asked to run the no-huddle look that has become customary under Roethlisberger, Rudolph has looked like one of the most effective members of the 2017 quarterback draft class featuring Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Rosen.

The third-round pick will be trying to take advantage of a Dolphins’ inexperienced secondary that has contributed to surrendering 417 yards per game, which ranked 30th of 32 entering the week. Rudolph has seven TD passes and has been picked off twice, so this will be an opportunity for him to pick up where he left off before taking a vicious hit and leaving Heinz Field via cart on Oct. 6. He has no memory of the incident.

While Hodges got the job done in L.A., Pittsburgh’s realistic chances to win the AFC North and return to the playoffs for the fifth straight season hinge on Rudolph staying healthy and improving, so his performance here is what most bears watching in this MNF dud. Inclement weather won’t be a factor with a clear night featuring temperatures in the mid-50s expected.

TOTAL TALK

The total on this game opened at 43 and most books are holding 43 ½ as of Monday morning. The Steelers and Dolphins have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season, producing 4-2 records in their first six games.VegasInsider totals expert Chris David offered up his total thoughts on the Monday night matchup.

“The Dolphins offense has shown a little more pop recently with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback but he’s still hit or miss and can often kill drives with key turnovers, something we saw twice in last week’s loss at Buffalo," said David. Pittsburgh will be playing with rest and this is the first of three straight games at Heinz Field, so avoiding a letdown shouldn’t be in the cards. The Steelers have scored 20-plus points in five consecutive games since losing 33-3 at New England in Week 1, but the defense has helped that cause with touchdowns and creating short tracks.”

Bettors should note that Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 in its last five games off the bye and the Steelers have averaged 25.8 PPG. Digging into those numbers further, the Steelers played two of those games at home and they scored 33 and 32 points.

“Pittsburgh has thrived under the lights at home, averaging 32.6 PPG in their last five from Heinz and that includes a 27-3 domination over Cincy in Week 4 on a Monday night," said David. "The so-called sharps and pros started buying Miami with the points early and while the Dolphins have covered two straight games, I’m not sold. The defense is terrible and the front-seven has been abysmal. They only have seven sacks in six games and while I’m not high on the backup QBs for Pittsburgh, I expect the chains to get moved tonight."

The Team Total on Pittsburgh is a little rich at 28 ½ or 29 depending where you shop," David added, "but I expect the Steelers to hit 30-plus points here."

Going back to last season, the Dolphins have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their last four road games and the defense 36.3 PPG.

LINE MOVEMENT

Miami Dolphins
Projected season win total: 4.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC East (pre-Week 1/current): 125/1 to 2000/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 250/1 to 25000/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 500/1 to 50000/1

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 13/10 to 15/4
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 100/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Early sharp action came in on Miami but it seems like there are various opinions on this one. Right now (Sunday night), we'd need the Steelers," said Berg, whose terrific observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "There probably won't be as much volume as a great matchup, but the Steelers are popular and should generate interest."

INJURY CONCERNS

Although he's not injured, RB Kenyan Drake didn't travel with the Dolphins to Pittsburgh and is to be traded to Arizona as the team's fire sale continues. Mark Walton and Kalen Ballage are expected to get the bulk of the work at running back. Safety Reshad Jones (chest) won't play but corner Xavien Howard will return. Center Daniel Kilgore (knee) has also been ruled out.

The bye week came at a great time for Pittsburgh, which lists LBs T.J. Watt (abdominal) and Mark Barron (hamstring) as probable and will also get back fullback Roosevelt Nix (knee). Top backs James Conner (quad) and Jaylen Samuels (knee) are probable too, as is WR James Washington. DE Stephon Tuitt (pectoral) remains out.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Steelers 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS last eight, OVER 5-3)

1/8/17 Steelers 30-12 vs. Dolphins (PIT -11, 47.5)
10/16/16 Dolphins 30-15 vs. Steelers (MIA +7.5, 40.5)
12/8/13 Dolphins 34-28 at Steelers (MIA +3, 40.5)
10/24/10 Steelers 23-22 at Dolphins (MIA +3, 40.5)
1/3/10 Steelers 30-24 at Dolphins (PIT -3, 46)
11/26/07 Steelers 3-0 vs. Dolphins (MIA +16, 38.5)
9/7/06 Steelers 28-17 vs. Dolphins (PIT -1.5, 34.5)
9/26/04 Steelers 13-3 at Dolphins (PIT +2.5, 31)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Steelers as a pick'em against Indianapolis, which comes in atop the AFC South and on a three-game winning streak. The Dolphns return home to face AFC East rival New York. The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in South Florida.

[Udog]

Close Calls - Week 8
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season. Most of this week’s games apply as if you won in Week 8 on sides, congratulations, almost every game could have gone the other way with many of those games certainly deserving of an opposite spread result.

Minnesota Vikings (-17) 19, Washington Redskins 9 (41½): There were eight scoring plays on Thursday night, but seven were field goals as Minnesota posted more than twice as many yards but couldn’t pull away. Washington trailed by just seven late in the third quarter and got the ball back with a stop on 4th-and-1 just outside of Minnesota field goal range. Two plays later, Dwayne Haskins was intercepted to set-up a Dan Bailey field goal early in the fourth quarter to put Minnesota up by 10. A late touchdown would be enough for most Vikings backers on a spread that opened at -14½ and only hit -17 very late in the day before kickoff. The Vikings had the opportunity and attempted to score despite Washington being out of timeouts late, but ultimately wound up stopped on 4th-and-4 from the Washington 7-yard-line in the final minute.

Detroit Lions (-6) 31, New York Giants 26 (49): The Lions had a 14-0 lead early, but Detroit has made a habit of blowing leads this season. Sure enough the Giants scored the next two touchdowns, but missed a PAT to trail by one. The Lions would stretch the edge to four by halftime and led by five through three quarters after an exchange of touchdowns in the third with the Giants failing going for two. Detroit hit a big play early in the fourth quarter to lead by 12 before New York was stopped on downs on back-to-back possessions. Detroit would go backwards on both late possessions and getting the ball back just ahead of the two-minute warning, the Giants were a backdoor threat. A 25-yard pass interference call put New York in business and with 1:19 remaining the Giants found the end zone. Down six, New York matched the closing number and opted to kick the important PAT to lose by just five.

Tennessee Titans (-2) 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 (45½): The Buccaneers have appealing numbers but the consistent turnovers stand out and they came to bite in this contest with Tampa Bay posting a 389-246 yardage edge in a narrow loss. The Titans led by two at halftime after the Buccaneers went for two after a score right before the break and came up short. The Buccaneers would get eight on an early third quarter score however to lead by six. Tennessee added a late third quarter field goal to trail by three, but forced a punt with Tampa Bay unwilling to go for it on 4th-and-1 in its own territory. The Titans then nearly doubled their offensive production for the game with a 12-play, 90-yard drive to deliver the go-ahead score, slipping past the slight favorite spread with 6:55 to go as well. Tampa Bay had three more possessions that ended in a fumble, failing on 4th-and-1 in Tennessee territory, and finally a deep pass from Jameis Winston intercepted at the Tennessee 25-yard-line.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 17, Chicago Bears 16 (41): The Bears commanded this game in the numbers, but settled for three first half field goals while the Chargers got a touchdown. The scoring mode flipped in the third quarter as the Bears were able to find the end zone and led 16-10 as a slight home favorite after a Chargers field goal late in the third quarter. Mitchell Trubisky fumbled in Chicago territory on the next possession and the Chargers were able to go 26 yards for a touchdown in three plays to lead by one. Chicago had a productive drive to reach the Los Angeles 37-yard-line, but Trubisky took a 3rd down sack and the Bears had to punt. The defense got the stop to give the Bears another chance and rather than taking a few shots to get a touchdown or get closer, the Bears took a knee in the final minute and watched Eddy Pinero miss left from 41 yards.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) 27, Atlanta Falcons 20 (48½): The closing line says seven but that wasn’t an overly common price on this game. Seattle opened at -3 and held at -3½ early in the week before number jumped with Matt Ryan ruled out. Seahawks -8 was typical over the weekend as results wound up varying on this game. Multiple outcomes didn’t seem possible as Seattle led 24-0 at halftime, but Matt Schaub would prove to be a productive backup getting the Falcons 11 points in the third quarter. A Seattle field goal with about six minutes left in the game made the lead 16 and seemed safe, but Atlanta went the distance in fewer than three minutes and suddenly was within 10, failing on a two-point conversion that mattered for many. In many ways that might have been a worse outcome for Seattle backers as with a two-score lead, the Seahawks could still relax and they punted back while taking just 27 seconds off the clock. Schaub and the Falcons managed the clock well and kicked a second down field goal without using a timeout to trail by seven while still leaving more than a minute on the clock, giving many late-week Falcons backers a win. The on-side kick went out of bounds to end any further threat as Seattle held on and the total that fell throughout the week stayed just ‘under’.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) 29, New York Jets 15 (40): Jacksonville dominated this game in most ways and led 22-7 after a late third quarter field goal. An early fourth quarter touchdown with a successful two-point conversion suddenly put the Jets down just seven to land even with the common weekend number though early in the week Jacksonville opened at -4½ and was -6 to -6½ for long stretches. The Jaguars gained 30 yards on the next possession but had to punt. Hopes for a New York comeback were short-lived however with a penalty, a negative rushing play, and an interception on three snaps for the Jets. On a short field, Jacksonville found the end zone on 3rd-and-goal to go up by 14. Sam Darnold was intercepted across midfield on the next possession for the Jets while another late series ended on downs.

Los Angeles Rams (-12) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (48½): In London, the Rams got more they bargained for with the winless Bengals with a 10-10 tie late in the second quarter before a trick play gave Los Angeles a 65-yard touchdown. Out of halftime, the Rams added another touchdown to slip past the heavy favorite spread. The Bengals appeared ready to answer reaching the edge for field goal range before going backwards and needing to punt on 4th-and-long. Cincinnati held the Rams to four straight punts the rest of the game, but two late drives deep into Los Angeles territory came up empty with a field goal not being worth considering given the time and score. The Bengals couldn’t convert from the 6-yard-line with about five minutes remaining and on a late drive appeared to get the underdog cover with a touchdown with eight seconds to go. On review, the play was overturned and the Bengals came up incomplete on its last shot from inside the 10. Winning by 14 with only 24 points, Rams backers escaped with a very fortunate cover in a game where the Bengals had more than 400 total yards, but just 10 points.

New Orleans Saints (-12½) 31, Arizona Cardinals 9 (48): Arizona trailed New Orleans just 10-6 at halftime but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 form its own 30 early in the third quarter. The aggressive play was commendable as Kliff Kingsbury is breaking the mold, but the move backfired with the Saints adding a short-field touchdown to go up 17-6 a few plays later. Arizona would add a field goal and through three quarters both teams had three scores, but Arizona had only field goals. Still down one score, Arizona couldn’t get a big third down stop early in the fourth quarter and the Saints went up by 15. About halfway through the final frame, the Cardinals reached the New Orleans 27-yard-line, but a field goal did no good at that point and 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-2 attempts to extend the series were stopped. A deflated Cardinals defense gave up back-to-back big plays as the Saints put the game away with another touchdown with five minutes to go.

Houston Texans (-5½) 27, Oakland Raiders 24 (52): The total wound up with mixed results on this game landing right on 51 where the number sat for big chunks of the week. Oakland led this game 21-13 as a Houston win didn’t seem in play but the Texans scored in the first few seconds of the fourth quarter and just went for one to trail 21-20. The Raiders managed a field goal to go up by four before a wild sequence with Deshaun Watson delivering a go-ahead touchdown pass but appearing to be seriously injured. Up three, the Houston defense forced an Oakland punt and was a serious threat to steal the cover, but Oakland exhausted its timeouts and Houston with Watson still in the game, was ultimately able to take a knee well across midfield after the two-minute warning without needing to try to advance further or consider a late field goal.

New England Patriots (-10) 27, Cleveland Browns 13 (43): Double-digit spreads in the NFL are rarely out of play as while the Patriots were in complete control after 17-0 first quarter, a Browns cover lurked as a real possibility. Down 27-10, Cleveland went for it on 4th-and-16 deep in its own territory and went further backwards. Dealt a 14-yard field, the Patriots went backwards as well and missed on a 34-yard field goal with about four minutes remaining. A touchdown would have trimmed the margin to 10, but the Browns came up just short of a 1st down on a late series in New England territory and after a false start pushed it to 4th-and-6, they opted to kick a field goal to trail by 13. The Browns would get the ball back with about a minute to go and picked up a big gain with a pass interference call but a sack followed. With no timeouts left and the clock would run out a few plays later with the game staying just ‘under’ as well.

Green Bay Packers (-5) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (48): A quick 14-0 lead for the Packers was erased in the second quarter as the Chiefs got a good performance from Matt Moore and the defense created some pressure. The Sunday night game was tied 17-17 through three quarters and 24-24 with nine minutes to go. The Packers scored on a 67-yard short pass and run from Aaron Jones to lead by seven but more than eight minutes remained. The Chiefs reached the 40-yard-line and opted to punt on 4th-and-3 with more than five minutes remaining and three timeouts left, a decision it isn’t clear they would make with Patrick Mahomes. Green Bay was able to covert a pair of third downs and run out the remaining clock for the win and narrow cover.

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

National Football League Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-2
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 75-41-1
Against the Spread 50-65-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 56-60-1
Against the Spread 43-72-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 55-61-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) at Bears, 17-16

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-12.5) vs. Cardinals, 31-9
Rams (-11.5) vs. Bengals (London), 24-10
Patriots (-10) vs. Browns, 27-13
Jaguars (-7) vs. Jets, 29-15
Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (-4) vs. Panthers, 51-13

Razor Thin Margin

-- The Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) finally won one of those close games, taking advantage of the kicking woes of the Chicago Bears, 17-16. PK Eddy Pineiro was the hero earlier this season, sinking the Denver Broncos on a kick at the buzzer in the Mile High City. The Bears thought they had found their guy after years of ugly kicking performances, lowlighted by the playoff meltdown of Cody Parkey.

The Bolts have had their shortcomings, too, especially in close games. It's cliche' to say it, but football, in particular professional football, really is a game of inches. The Chargers found that out last week when they were stuffed at the 1-yard line, fumbling away a win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, much to the dismay of Chargers bettors holding a +2 ticket. The week before they were beaten by one score by an undrafted rookie QB. The week before that, they lost by one score. In Week 3, they lost by one score. In Week 2, they lost by a field goal. In week 1, they won in overtime by one score. Unfortunately for the Bolts, they won just two of the first seven games, so they really needed this, and they were facing a team in the exact same boat. They finally found an opponent with worse luck they they have.

For the Chargers, not only are close games inevitable, but low-scoring games are inevitable, too. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven, and last week's 'over' hit by just a half-point, although they should have had a touchdown in the closing moments.

London Fog

-- The Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) weren't feeling sorry for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they weren't about to play down to the competition. They won and cover 24-10, although the offense was a bit sluggish at times. Still, the defense showed up and kept the Bengals winless at 0-8. Cincinnati hits the halfway point with a goose egg in the win column while allowing 21 or more points in each game. They're just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in back-to-back games all season. The 'under' is also 5-2-1 so far for Cincinnati, who will join the Rams in a bye in Week 9 after the trip back overseas.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans (52.5) battle, and it was a close call. One decision might have changed everything. Down 21-13, the Texans scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, head coach Bill O'Brien elected to kick the extra point. With plenty of time on the clock, it was probably the correct decision, but for bettors it changes things. Perhaps it didn't. We'll never know now. The game ended up 27-24, and just 'under'.

The second-highest total was the New York Giants-Detroit Lions (49.5) battle, and if you were holding a Lions (-6) ticket, it was a bad beat. RB Saquon Barkley gave Giants bettors (+6) and fantasy owners a gift touchdown with 1:19 to go in regulation, needing an onside kick for a chance at a win. That didn't happen, as it hardly ever does now, but the game was already well 'over' before that late score.

The next highest totals were the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49) and Arizona Cardinals-New Orleans Saints (48.5) games. The Falcons were driving down the field, down 27-17, and needing two scores late, they elected to take the field goal first, then try to get the onside kick (again, you know how that works out) and go get the touchdown. 'Over' bettors, and those holding Seattle (-7.5) tickets were screaming "NO!!!" in unison, but a PK Matt Bryant field goal was made and the onside kick wasn't...

In the Saints game, people were concerned that QB Drew Brees (thumb) returning for the first time since Week 2 would upset things, maybe make the offense a bit rusty. He was just fine. It was the Cardinals who looked like they've been off for weeks after the 31-9 loss.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills (39) game. Buffalo was the last team to see an 'over' result, hitting the 'under' in each of their first five. Now, they're on an 'over' streak in the past two outings. The New York Jets-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game also went over by four points, and in the Carolina Panthers-San Francisco 49ers (40.5) game saw the over taken care of by the home team all by themselves, 51-13.

-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 8, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers (43) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 6-18 (25.0%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the Green Bay Packers-Kansas City Chiefs (48) game finally was a SNF game with an over - barely - 31-24.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- There was really only one 'major' injury, but it's a big one for a contender. Texans DE J.J. Watt (pectoral) left Sunday's game against the Raiders, and he immediately went to the hospital. He tweeted out Sunday night indicating his season is over, and sources said has a torn pec. Not good.

Looking Ahead

-- The unbeaten 49ers hit the road to face the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Will we get a trick or a treat on Halloween night? The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They open as more than a touchdown favorite. For the Cards, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine appearances on TNF. Arizona is also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 tries at home against San Francisco.

-- The Watt-less Texans will travel to meet the Jaguars overseas in London. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous London games so far, with the Week 8 Bengals-Rams battle at Wembley Stadium going under. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the AFC South, while the Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The underdog has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series.

-- The Jets and Dolphins will meet in South Florida, and the one-win Jets will be looking to keep the Fins winless. The Jets lost and failed to cover in NE Florida in Week 8 in the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, and they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games. New York is also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 AFC East battles, including their 33-0 whitewashing against the Patriots last Monday night. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, though, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. In this series, the Jets are 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 trips to Miami, so that's probably the way to go.

-- In the fourth and final divisional game on the schedule we get the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Monday Night Football. Dallas has an impressive 13-3 ATS mark in the past 16 games inside the NFC East, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 appearances on MNF. The G-Men are 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. However, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.