NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Wed., Oct. 9 - Sat., Oct. 12)

[Udog]

College football Saturday odds and line moves: Book needs Oklahoma – for now – vs Texas
Patrick Everson

Texas coach Tom Herman can't afford a loss Saturday if he wants his team to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation. The Longhorns are 10.5-point neutral-site underdogs vs. Oklahoma.

College football Week 7 features a couple games with potential College Football Playoff implications, one among the first batch of kickoffs, and one in prime time. We check in on the action and odds movement for those contests and several more, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.

No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns – Open: -10; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5

Oklahoma heads into the Red River Rivalry – a neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas – with a 5-0 SU mark (3-2 ATS). The Sooners rolled to a 45-20 victory at Kansas in Week 6, but fell short of cashing as 32-point favorites.

Texas is facing its second top-10 outfit of the season, having fallen to Louisiana State 45-38 as 6.5-point home underdogs in Week 2. Last week, the Longhorns scored 21 points in the fourth quarter at West Virginia to nab a 42-31 win and cover as 10.5-point faves.

“We’re high on Texas,” Bogdanovich said of action on this noon ET kickoff. “But I don’t expect that to be the case at kickoff. I expect a late public push on Oklahoma.”

No. 7 Florida Gators at No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers – Open: -13; Move: -13.5

Florida could make a big impression with the CFP committee if it can notch its second big win in as many weeks. The Gators (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) knocked off previously unbeaten Auburn 24-13 as 2.5-point home pups in Week 6.

Beyond the Week 2 win at Texas, LSU hasn’t been challenged much, and Week 6 was no exception. The Tigers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) pounded Utah State 42-6 laying 27 points at home.
William Hill US opened LSU -13 Monday morning and went to -13.5 a few hours later, but the line hasn’t budged since then for this 8 p.m. ET matchup.

“We’re pretty even right now,” Bogdanovich said. “That one might be a small decision, just because both teams are good.”

No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes – Open: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +4; Move: +4.5; Move: +4; Move: +3.5; Move: +4; Move: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5

Penn State hopes to keep its seat at the CFP conversation table, currently standing at 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS). In Week 6, the Nittany Lions rumbled past Purdue 35-7, just short of cashing as 28.5-point favorites.

Iowa’s perfect record went by the boards at the Big House in Week 6. The Hawkeyes (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) were never out of it at Michigan, but also never found the end zone, losing 10-3 as 4-point road ‘dogs.

William Hill US now has operations in Iowa, which recently legalized sports betting. But perhaps surprisingly, that hasn’t created much regional bias yet for this 7:30 p.m. ET clash.

“In Nevada, we’re dead even to the game, with good two-way action,” Bogdanovich said. “In Iowa, we’re dead even there, too.”

Southern California Trojans at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5

Arguably Notre Dame’s best game this season was also its only loss, 23-17 at Georgia catching 15.5 points in Week 4. The Fighting Irish (4-1 SU and ATS) boatraced Bowling Green 52-0 as massive 45.5-point home favorites in Week 6.

Southern Cal will have true freshman Kedon Slovis back under center, as he returns from a concussion suffered in a Week 3 overtime loss at Brigham Young. The Trojans (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a bye, after losing at Washington 28-14 getting 12.5 points in Week 5.

“We’re gonna need USC,” Bogdanovich said of another big late kick, a 7:30 p.m. ET start. “Straight bets, not so much, but parlays, moneyline parlays and teasers will all be on Notre Dame.”

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers – Open: -26; Move: -27; Move: -27.5; Move: -28; Move: -28.5; Move: -28; Move: -27.5; Move: -28

This Big Ten contest wouldn’t even be on the radar, except that three Vegas sportsbook operators – William Hill US, MGM Resorts and CG Technology – took multiple significant wagers on Indiana. The Hoosiers (3-2 SU and ATS) are coming off a bye, after losing to Michigan State 40-31 as 14-point Week 5 road pups.

Rutgers (1-4 SU and ATS) won and cashed against FBS independent Massachusetts in Week 1, but is 0-4 SU and ATS since then. In three Big Ten games this season, the Scarlet Knights have just seven total points, and those came in last week’s 48-7 loss to Maryland as 14-point home underdogs.

On Monday, a bettor placed three $55,000 bets on Indiana at William Hill US, at -27, -27.5 and -28.

“That’s all we’ve got on the game really, is those three bets,” Bogdanovich said of a noon ET kickoff. “A bunch of parlays on Indiana, too. We need Rutgers, for sure.”

Other noteworthy games:

• No. 1 Alabama at No. 21 Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Crimson Tide opened at -17.5, dipped to -16.5 early in the week, then went back to -17 Thursday. “We’ll need A&M, but I don’t think real big. On parlays and teasers, yes, but straight bets will be pretty even,” Bogdanovich said.

• No. 16 Michigan at Illinois, noon ET: The Wolverines opened at -20.5 and reached -23.5 by Friday night. “A bunch of parlays, moneyline parlays and teasers to Michigan,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s a square game. We’ll need Illinois, for sure.”

• No. 20 Memphis at Temple, noon ET: Memphis moved from -4 to -6, then dialed back to -5 by Friday. “We’re dead even to the game.”

• Washington State at No. 24 Arizona State, 3: 30 p.m. ET: The Sun Devils opened at -3 and dropped all the way to pick, but ASU is still getting its share of wagers. “Good handle, and we’re dead even,” Bogdanovich said.

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials - Week 7
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in key FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Oklahoma vs. (-10/75.5) vs. Texas, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Sooners QB Jalen Hurts cited playing in the Iron Bowl as providing him rivalry-game experience that has him well prepared for this one. The Longhorns defeated Kyler Murray-led OU 48-45 in last year’s regular-season meeting before faltering in the Big 12 Championship, so this will be the fourth time Tom Herman gets a crack at counterpart Lincoln Riley. The two highly-regarded offensive minds produced the highest-scoring Red River Rivalry game in history last season and are again capable of lighting up the scoreboard with standouts Hurts and Sam Ehlinger slinging it. The higher-ranked team is 14-3 in the last 17 matchups between these schools. It sounds like Texas will be reasonably equipped to pull off an upset since WR Collin Johnson and RB Keontay Ingram are both expected to be healthy enough to play their key roles alongside Ehlinger.

Memphis (-4.5/50.5) at Temple, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Tigers have a chance to be the top team in the American’s West Division since they avoid UCF and get to host SMU and Cincinnati, which on paper should be their toughest games. This one might be their trickiest remaining home game given that the Owls have beaten Maryland and Georgia Tech at the Linc already and have legitimate aspirations of dethroning UCF and current co-leader Cincinnati. Temple freshman Re’Mahn Davis is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has been explosive and makes life easier for junior QB Anthony Russo, who has a number of solid receivers that will test a Memphis defense surrendering just 19.2 points. The Owls have allowed just 17.2 points for the season and just over 10 at home. Memphis will likely still be without leading rusher Patrick Taylor, Jr. (ankle) but have seen redshirt freshman Kenneth Gainwell emerge. He leads the conference with 620 rushing yards after breaking off 209 on just 14 carries in last week’s win over ULM.

Maryland (-3.5/53.5) at Purdue, 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Boilermakers are still missing explosive receiver/returner Rondale Moore, who they’re hoping to have back by month’s end. QB Elijah Sindelar is likely out the rest of the season after suffering a broken collarbone, so redshirt freshman Jack Plummer is likely to gain plenty of on-the-job experience. The Terps are likely salivating at getting after Plummer, who was sacked 10 times by Penn State last week. They’re looking to build on a 48-7 rout at Rutgers after bouncing back from an embarrassing 59-0 home loss at Penn State. Mike Locksley is looking for his first road win since taking over the Maryland program and isn’t likely to have a better opportunity than this to get one since they’ll be ‘dogs in Minneapolis, Columbus and East Lansing. If Locksley is going to snap a two-year bowl drought, he’ll need to secure a win here. Starting QB Josh Jackson is likely out with a high ankle sprain, which means Tyrrell Pigrome will start and the Terps will be heavily reliant on running the ball with Anthony McFarland. Weather in West Lafayette should be sunny but windy.

South Carolina at Georgia (-21.5/52.5), 12 p.m ET, ESPN: The Gamecocks have already played Alabama and have to deal with Clemson at the end of every season, so one thing Will Muschamp’s team shouldn’t be coming off a bye is surprised by what they’re about to see. Being overwhelmed is still a possibility given the youth on the offensive front but the South Carolina defense has been pretty good most of the season outside of surrendering 47 to Alabama. RB Rico Dowdle, WR Randrecous Davis and true freshman QB Dakereon Joyner all practiced and are available, though freshman Ryan Hilinski is getting another start under center. Look for South Carolina to try and hang around by controlling possession via Dowdle and Clemson transfer RB Tavien Feaster, who has impressed the past few weeks. It’s going to be difficult to keep the Dawgs from coming after South Carolina’s young QBs since center Hank Manos and tackle Dylan Wonnum are both sidelined. Georgia has lost to South Carolina three times since 2010 but has lost the last four meetings by an average margin of 21 points.

Afternoon Delights

Washington State at Arizona State (PK/60.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12: The Cougars followed up their brutal collapse against UCLA by getting squashed at Utah, finishing with just 13 points, the school’s lowest-scoring output since a 37-3 loss at Cal in 2017. Mike Leach has had a bye week to get his guys back on track and come up with an effective game plan for Herm Edwards’ effective Arizona State defense. ASU comes off its second outright upset on the road, shutting down Cal two weeks after winning at Michigan State. The Sun Devils will be taking the field in Tempe for the first time since losing to Colorado and have the 11th-ranked scoring defense in the nation (14.4 ppg), looking to pick up where the Utes left off in frustrating Cougs’ QB Anthony Gordon, who is the only QB in the country with over 2,000 passing yards. Leach is just 5-9 off bye weeks at Washington State and is 13-18 throughout his career. He’s got new defensive leadership with Tracey Claeys departing and hasn’t lost three straight games since closing out 2016 with a third consecutive setback in the Holiday Bowl. This could be a big day for freshman QB Jaylen Daniels given Washington State’s issues in the secondary and the need to gain confidence since Utah’s defense is on deck.

Cincinnati (-7/51) at Houston, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Bearcats look to avoid an upset against a Cougars offense that scored a season-high 46 points in an upset of North Texas after news came down that QB D’Eriq King was redshirting alongside other seniors given the chance to improve and be part of a better effort next season. Clayton Tune, a backup who got into games as a true freshman, helped light up the Mean Green but will have a much tougher challenge against a talented Cincinnati defense. After an upset of American juggernaut UCF, the Bearcats have to make sure they’re recharged enough to pass a tough road test. QB Desmond Ridder has had issues with consistency but clearly has weapons around him with RB Michael Warren helping take the pressure off the offense. LB Terrance Edgeston remains out for Houston, which has won two straight in the series, last falling in 2014.

Michigan State at Wisconsin (-10/40.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN: The Spartans will fall to 4-3 unless they’re able to pull off an upset. With Penn State in East Lansing next week, it’s looking like Mark Dantonio is on the hook for another tough season unless something changes offensively. Ohio State posted a 34-10 win last week, so both sides of the ball fell apart for Michigan State. The Badgers posted their third shutout of 2019 in crushing Kent State 48-0 last week and will be playing the final of five consecutive home games before trips to Illinois and Ohio State. Heisman candidate Jonathan Taylor is up to 12 rushing touchdowns for the season and enters the day tied for third in the country in rushing yardage, which is bad news for a Sparty run defense that surrendered 323 yards to the Buckeyes last week despite coming into the game surrendering just 55.8 on the ground per game. Wisconsin has allowed 5.8 points per game and hasn’t given up more than 15 in a single outing. They’re first in the country in scoring defense, passing yards allowed per game (131.0) and third down conversion percentage defense (15.9). QB Brian Lewerke continues to struggle with accuracy and Michigan State turned it over three times in Columbus. Wisconsin won the last meeting between the schools 30-6 in ’16 but lost at home the last time State came through town in ’12. Showers could be in the mix in the second half on a cold, windy day in Madison.

Alabama (17/61) at Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: On paper, this is the Crimson Tide’s toughest test of the season thus far and will serve as such until LSU comes to Tuscaloosa on Nov. 9. Only South Carolina has been less than a four-touchdown underdog against ‘Bama to date and came within 24 points to cover in what’s been the team’s “closest” game thus far. The last team that has been made an underdog of 17 or fewer points against Alabama in the regular season was aforementioned LSU, who the Tide defeated 29-0 to open last November. Nick Saban’s team will be going on the road without their center since Chris Owens will be sidelined, moving right tackle Landon Dickerson into that spot. Deonte Brown returns from suspension to start for Dickerson. Jimbo Fisher has said the key to victory A&M will be to rattle Tua Tagovailoa, so count on an aggressive defensive game plan testing Alabama’s rebuilt line. The Tide has won 19 of their last 20 SEC road games. Aggies QB Kellen Mond is 35-for-62 for 433 yards in his two career losses against ‘Bama, rushing for 112 yards while throwing for two scores and running for two more. He’s thrown three interceptions.

Florida State at Clemson (-18.5/58.5), 3:30 p.m ET, ABC: Wake Forest has elevated its game to emerge as the Tigers’ chief competition in the Atlantic Division this season, but that role is typically filled by the ‘Noles. For that reason, it will be interesting to see how the defending national champions respond coming off a bye, especially considering it is coming off a 21-20 squeaker of a win in Chapel Hill despite being a 27.5-point favorite at North Carolina. Trevor Lawrence has been off all season, likely ending his Heisman Trophy candidacy before it truly ever got off the ground. RB Travis Etienne has been the Tigers’ most valuable player on the offensive side of the ball. FSU is expected to have guard Cole Minshew and tackle Jauan Williams available after injury-related absences, so they’ve got a shot to be better up front. QB James Blackman and RB Cam Akers have experience against the Tigers, who have won the past four meetings between the schools. Safety Jaiden Woodbey is out for the season and won’t have DE Janarius Robinson for the first half of this one due to a targeting suspension.

Primetime Matchups

Penn State (-3.5/43) at Iowa, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: Inclement weather is typically a threat in Iowa City, but the forecast calls for a windy day to grow increasingly milder as kickoff approaches and rain should stay away for this high-profile Big Ten clash. James Franklin has helped continue a run of five straight wins over Iowa that dates back to Joe Paterno’s final season and is the longest streak in the series since 1971-75. This is the smallest spread in this game since the Hawkeyes were favored in ’12, so Kirk Ferentz is hopeful his team can bounce back from last week’s 10-3 loss at Michigan. Iowa is going to be wearing bright yellow against Penn State on Saturday night and Franklin is 0-6 on the road against ranked opponents, so at least one streak figures to end on Saturday night. Look for KJ Hamler’s ability to create plays against the Hawkeyes’ banged-up secondary to play a large role here.

USC at Notre Dame (-6.5/55), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC: The Irish have won the last five times they’ve been favored against USC, which includes last season’s 24-17 win in L.A. Brian Kelly’s team has covered in four of the games, falling short last year after falling behind 10-0 and rallying to win. A slow start here would probably be related to an inability to limit big plays from the Trojans, but you would imagine Notre Dame would have an edge in dealing with the cooler weather since temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s throughout this game, with steady winds making it feel even colder. That would likely benefit Ian Book and the ND offense, especially with USC welcoming back true freshman starter Kedon Slovis from concussion protocol. RB Vavae Malepeai and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown are banged up, which might mean more touches for speedy RB Markese Stepp in his homecoming. Safety Talanoa Hufanaga and CB Olaijah Griffin are also expected to play. Notre Dame gets back RB Jamar Armstrong, who tore his abdomen in the season opener. The Irish will have more playmakers available for this rivalry game than they’ve had all season.

Florida at LSU (-14/55), 8 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Gators have ridden Kyle Trask on a winning streak that includes last week’s Homecoming conquest of Auburn, but the former career backup got his knee twisted up in the second quarter before returning to finish off the Tigers. He’ll start here, but we’ll see if there are any lingering effects. LSU QB Joe Burrow has crashed the Heisman race by ranking first in the SEC in yards per game, completions and completion percentage while ranking second in rating and touchdown passes behind Tagovailoa. The offense has looked championship-caliber for the first time in years and the defense has made strides The Tigers have won four of six in the series but lost last year’s contest 27-19 in the Swamp, making this a revenge game for Ed Orgeron’s team. The Gators have injury concerns in the secondary that could limit their depth here, which isn’t ideal given how effective Tigers’ receivers have been all season.

Late-night Snack

Washington (-6/60) at Arizona, 11 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Huskies have already dropped two Pac-12 games, matching the amount they’ve lost in two of the last three years. A third conference title in four years doesn’t appear to be in the cards, although their three toughest games (Oregon, Utah, Washington State) will all be played in Seattle. They may not get to those games with a chance to battle back if they fail to handle business in Tucson against the only team besides the Ducks that is currently perfect in league play. After beating Texas Tech, UCLA and Colorado in consecutive games, this will be the toughest test yet for Kevin Sumlin’s Wildcats, who haven’t lost since opening the season by falling short at Hawai’i.

[Udog]

OU-Texas showdown to affect Big 12
Associated Press

Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the few people who won't make a big deal about Saturday's showdown with Texas.

This whole big game business is nothing new to Hurts. As Alabama's quarterback, he played in three national championship games and the annual Iron Bowl against Auburn. The graduate transfer sees Saturday's opponent as simply the next one.

''It's all external factors,'' he said. ''Nobody's going to change the way I think about something, what I tell my teammates or how we're going to approach it. We're going to continue to approach it by trying to go 1-0 every week.''

Everyone else is fired up over a game that will affect the Big 12 and College Football Playoff races. The sixth-ranked Sooners (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) and 11th-ranked Longhorns (4-1, 2-0) probably can't afford a loss in Dallas if they want a shot at a national title.

Even without all the added stakes, this is a game that always gets circled on the calendar.

''What I am not is not one to downplay a rivalry game,'' Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch said. ''To ignore the implications, I think, is naive as a coach and is make-believe. I also will say that my thrill in terms of a Saturday is not limited to rivalry games either. But I have a great appreciation for the opponent, what it means to this university.''

The game also will likely affect the Heisman Trophy race since Hurts is among the likely contenders and Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger could push his way into the conversation.

Texas won last year's regular-season matchup , but Oklahoma won the rematch 39-27 in the Big 12 title game.

Longhorns left tackle Sam Cosmi said Texas has unfinished business with the Sooners. And though Oklahoma enters the game ranked No. 1 nationally in total offense and No. 2 in scoring offense, the Longhorns believe they have the answers.

''They have a really explosive offense and are a really good team overall. I won't take that away from them,'' Cosmi said. ''But I don't think they've played anyone like us.''

HITTING HURTS

Hurts leads all quarterbacks nationally with 99.8 yards rushing per game. Texas defensive back B.J. Foster said keys to stopping Oklahoma include forcing Hurts to throw - and getting a lick on him when he tries to run.

''From what I've seen, he doesn't like to slide, so he's going to engage contact with you,'' Foster said. ''He's not dumb. He's going to have to slide, or it's not going to be good for him.''

Oklahoma averages 288.4 yards rushing per game, while Texas allows just 116.8.

''We're sound on the run game. He's going to have to pass the ball,'' Foster said.

Texas might not want Hurts to pass - the Longhorns are allowing 325 yards per game through the air.

TRICK PLAYS

Texas has been using them the last two games. A double-pitch pass to tight end Cade Brewer led to a touchdown against Oklahoma State. Then Texas unveiled a cross-field lateral to Cosmi, who rumbled for a touchdown at West Virginia. Both were critical second-half scores. Texas also used a receiver pass for a touchdown against the Sooners last year. Ehlinger said all three scoring plays were put in the week of the game.

''We don't like kicking field goals in the red zone,'' Texas coach Tom Herman said. ''So we are going to pull out all the stops to score touchdowns down there.''

BURT AGAIN

Texas senior wide receiver John Burt has certainly seen his share of games in this border rivalry - Saturday will be his sixth time playing against the Sooners. Burt played against the Sooners twice last season, but because he played in only four games he was able to redshirt for 2018. He led the team in catches as a freshman, but his playing time has been reduced each year since as he pursued a track career. His touchdown catch last week against West Virginia was his first since 2017.

DICKER THE KICKER

Texas sophomore kicker Cameron Dicker became an internet meme last season when television cameras showed him giving a teammate a head nod and a wink before kicking the game-winning field against the Sooners. Dicker has made four of six field goal attempts this season but missed his only one last week at West Virginia. He booted a career-long 57-yarder earlier this season against Rice.

EHLINGER'S RESPECT

Ehlinger has had issues with both of Oklahoma's past two quarterbacks, Heisman winners Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. He said he has nothing but admiration for Hurts: ''Following his story and understanding what he's persevered through, unbelievable respect for him and what he's been able to do at the college level. I extremely excited to get out there Saturday and compete against him because he's such a respectable guy.''

[Udog]

Florida at LSU
Brian Edwards

No. 7 Florida Gators at No. 5 LSU Tigers
Venue/Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 12, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -14, Total 55.5

When you think about college football, it doesn’t get much better than a pair of unbeaten teams battling it out in Redstick at Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night in October.

That’s exactly what’s on the menu in Week 7 when Louisiana State (5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the spread) plays host to Florida in an SEC showdown at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU installed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 56. The Gators were +425 on the money line at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

This is the annual crossover game for both schools against a team from the other SEC division. It’s always been a great rivalry, but certainly one in which each program saves more vitriol for other bigger rivals. For instance, LSU’s biggest rival is Alabama, followed by Texas A&M, Auburn and maybe even Ole Miss ahead of UF. On the flip side, FSU, Georgia and Tennessee are the Gators’ biggest rivals.

However, all of that changed in a matter of days three years ago, when former LSU Athletics Director Joe Alleva made an unabashed fool of himself by pushing a ridiculously false narrative about Florida.

Hurricane Matthew was closing in on the Sunshine State in October of 2016. The forecasts on Monday and Tuesday predicted that the storm, one that had 110 mph winds and left one million Florida residents without power, would move up the Florida coast through Friday. In these situations, the Governor declares a state of emergency and politicians make decisions about cancelling events like football games.

LSU was – by far – the biggest home game for UF in 2016. Therefore, nearly all of Florida’s top recruiting targets were taking their official visits to Gainesville that weekend. And, as we all know, these forecasts for hurricanes can change by the hour, so the Gators didn’t want to move or postpone the game until it became clear that there was no other choice.

Tuesday wasn’t the time to make that decision. Alleva had just fired Les Miles when LSU dropped an 18-13 decision at Auburn. Nevertheless, with a win over Florida, the Tigers’ path to get to a home game vs. Alabama with only one SEC loss – and thus, the ability to control their own destiny to win the SEC West if they beat ‘Bama – was relatively easy with just two SEC home games vs. Missouri and Ole Miss prior to the Crimson Tide’s trip to Baton Rouge.

Sensing the opportunity to get the UF game moved to Tiger Stadium, Alleva started a campaign to get that done at whatever cost necessary. In a watered-down SEC East, Florida had a great chance to get back to Atlanta by winning the division for a second straight season. The school was considering all sorts of options for the game, including moving it to other venues or playing it Sunday. Obviously, Baton Rouge was understandably the last place where UF wanted the game to be played.

As conversations between Florida, LSU and the SEC offices were taking place, Alleva issued a deadline to the Gators and the conference. If the game was going to be moved to Baton Rouge, Alleva had to know by early Wednesday evening in order to get the stadium ready and ensure that security and concessions, etc. were in order.

Florida and the SEC weren't going to take mandates and deadlines from Alleva and rightfully so. The game ended up getting postponed but since its result was going to impact the division races, it had to be played. Since the schools didn't share an open date but did have a weekend in common whend both were playing non-conference games, LSU bought out of its game with South Alabama and UF did the same with a home date vs. Presbyterian.

The SEC decided to play the game in Baton Rouge but in doing so, forced the Tigers to go to Gainesville in both 2017 and '18. Neither side was really happy with the outcome at that time, and it cranked up the animosity between these adversaries about 10-15 notches. (We'll get into the '16 result and the rivalry since then down below...)

LSU has captured wins vs. Georgia Southern (55-3), at Texas (45-38), vs. Northwestern State (65-14), at Vanderbilt (66-38) and vs. Utah State (42-6). The only non-cover came by one-half point when the Tigers beat the Demons by 51 as 51.5-point home ‘chalk.’

Ed Orgeron’s team thumped the Aggies 42-6 as a 27.5-point home favorite last week. The 48 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 73-point total. After Joe Burrow connected with Derrick Dillon for a seven-yard touchdown pass early in the first quarter, Utah State answered with a pair of field goal and cashed tickets for first-quarter bets.

However, Burrow added a TD run and a 25-yard TD pass to Ja’Marr Chase to give the Tigers a 21-6 halftime advantage. Burrow added three more TD passes in the second half, including a pair to Justin Jefferson. LSU held Utah State to 28 rushing yards on 21 attempts (1.3 yards per carry), and it enjoyed huge leads in first downs (32-10) and total offense (601-168 yards).

Burrow completed 27-of-38 passes for 344 yards and five TDs with one interception. He also ran for 42 yards and one score on 10 carries. Jefferson had nine receptions for 155 yards and two TDs, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for a team-high 72 yards on 14 totes.

For the season, Burrow has produced incredible numbers. The senior signal caller leads the nation in completion percentage, is second in TD passes and passing yards and third in QB rating (216.16). He has connected on 78.4 percent of his throws for 1,864 yards with a 22/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Burrow, who transferred to LSU after failing to win the QB job from Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State prior to the 2018 campaign, also has a pair of rushing scores and a 15-3 record in 18 career starts.

Jefferson leads the SEC in receiving yards (547), is second in TD catches (seven) and fifth in receptions with 30. Chase has 23 catches for 451 yards and six TDs, while Terrace Marshall has 20 receptions for 304 yards and six TDs. However, Marshall broke his foot in the Sept. 21 win at Vandy. He returned to non-contact practice on Monday but was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ vs. UF when he didn’t participate in Tuesday’s practice in pads.

Edwards-Helaire has 360 rushing yards, five TDs and a 5.5 yards-per-carry average. John Emery Jr, the true freshman who was a five-star recruit, has 114 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.4 YPC average.

LSU is ranked second in the country in total offense and passing yards, but its 54.6 points-per-game average is No. 1 in the nation. As for the LSU defense led by one of America’s trop defensive coordinators, Dave Aranda, it is ranked 19th nationally in total defense, No. 52 versus the pass, No. 9 against the run and 30th in scoring ‘D’ (19.8 PPG).

Three starters on LSU’s defense – senior DE Rashard Lawrence, senior LB Michael Divinity and junior DE Glen Logan – have each missed three games in a row due to injuries, but Lawrence (ankle) and Divinity (knee) have been upgraded to ‘probable’ against the Gators. Logan remains ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. This trio for 154 tackles, 13 sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss, 15 QB hurries, six passes broken up and one interception in 2018.

Florida (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) opened the season with a non-covering 24-20 win over Miami in Orlando as a seven-point favorite. After thumping UT-Martin 45-0 in Week 2, Dan Mullen’s team went to Lexington to face Kentucky. The Gators hadn’t lost at UK since 1986, but they went into the fourth quarter trailing 21-10. Also, starting QB Feleipe Franks had been carted off the field in the third after dislocating his ankle.

Nevertheless, with junior back-up QB Kyle Trask under center, the Texas native sparked UF to a 29-21 win by leading three TD drives in the final stanza. Trask’s four-yard TD run on a QB draw with 4:11 remaining put Florida in front 22-21.

When UK missed a short field goal on its next drive, Florida put the game away on Josh Hammond’s 76-yard TD run on a third-and-six play with 33 ticks left. The 29-21 triumph wasn’t enough to cover the number with the Gators closing as 9.5-point road favorites.

In Week 4 vs. Tennessee, Trask was given his first starting nod since he was a freshman in high school. He had played his entire prep career as a second-stringer behind Houston star D’Eriq King. Trask responded by leading UF to a 34-3 win over Tennessee as a 12.5-point home favorite. He threw for 293 yards, more than Franks had passed for in any of the 16 games he started for Mullen.

After a 38-0 win over Towson, UF hosted previously-undefeated Auburn at The Swamp last Saturday. It was the toughest ticket in Gainesville since the Tim Tebow Era ended in 2009, as the Tigers came to Gainesville as 2.5-point road favorites.

Despite fumbling away three turnovers in the first quarter alone, UF never trailed and won 24-13 in front of a raucous crowd that was on its feet from start to finish. The Gators enjoyed advantages in first downs (19-12), total offense (398-269) and time of possession (33:41-26:19). They overcame four lost fumbles and two failed fourth-down attempts, including a fake punt that gave Auburn a short field that it turned into its only TD of the game.

Other than the three lost fumbles that were partly on him and partly due to poor pass protection, Trask played well. He completed 19-of-31 throws for 234 yards and two TDs without an interception. Senior WR Freddie Swain had six receptions for 146 yard and one TD, a 64-yard scoring grab that opened the scoring less than two minutes into the game.

With 9:04 remaining and Auburn trailing 17-13, Florida senior RB Lamical Perine broke a tackle, put a slick move on a defender and raced 88 yards into the end zone for the game-sealing score. UF’s defense did the rest, with Marco Wilson’s interception putting the game on ice. The Gators intercepted Auburn true freshman QB Bo Nix three times to bring its season total to 12, which leads the nation.

Perine rushed for 130 yards on 14 attempts and had four catches for 15 yards. Sophomore Kyle Pitts continued to show that he’s one of UF’s most improved players and one of the SEC’s top tight ends, hauling in eight receptions for 65 yards. Hammond had two catches for 23 yards and one TD. Wilson, Donovan Stiner and Shawn Davis had interceptions.

Trask has completed 72.2 percent of his passes for 881 yards with a 7/2 TD-INT ratio. He's also run for a pair of TDs. Perine has 328 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.8 YPC average. He also has 18 receptions for 93 yards and one TD.

Sophomore RB Dameon Pierce has 161 rushing yards and two TDs on 28 attempts for a 5.8 YPC average. However, he got popped on his only carry last week against Auburn, losing a fumble and leaving the game with a head injury. Pierce is 'questionable' at LSU.

UF has one of the deepest sets of WRs in the nation even without Kadarius Toney, who suffered a wrist injury in Week 2 that's expected to keep him out until the Nov. 2 showdown vs. Georgia in Jacksonville.

Swain has 14 receptions for 280 yards and three TDs, while Van Jefferson has 19 catches for 258 yards and one TD. Pitts has 25 grabs for 254 yards and three TDs. Trevon Grimes (16 catches, 235 yards, 0 TDs), Hammond (16-199-1), Tyrie Cleveland (12-166-1) and Jacob Copeland (7-67-1) are also factors in UF's aerial attack.

UF’s defense is ranked No. 13 in the nation in total defense, No. 19 in both pass and run defense and No. 5 in scoring ‘D’ (9.5 PPG). This unit is led by senior MLB David Reese, who leads the SEC in tackles (49), has one TFL and one sack.

The Gators lead the SEC and rank in a third-place tie nationally in sacks with 26. Seven different UF defenders have at least two sacks, with Louisville transfer Jonathan Greenard leading the way with four. Greenard has recorded 28 tackles, 2.5 TFL’s, seven QB hurries, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception.

Florida senior DE Jabari Zuniga was a preseason All-American who had three sacks in UF’s first three games. However, he left the win at Kentucky with a sprained ankle in the third quarter and has missed three games in a row. Zuniga was expected to play against Auburn and did dress out, but he never touched the field. All indications are that he’ll start at LSU.

The ‘over’ is 4-1 overall for the Tigers, 2-1 in their home games. Their games are averaging combined scores of 74.4 PPG. This is the second-lowest total of the season for LSU, as its tally was 51 in the opener vs. Ga. Southern.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 for UF overall, but the ‘over’ hit in its lone road contest. The Gators’ games have averaged combined scores of 41.8 PPG.

Florida is 4-1 both SU and ATS in five games as an underdog since Mullen took over. Meanwhile, LSU is 9-8 ATS in 17 contests as a home favorite on Orgeron's watch.

When the 2016 game was moved to Baton Rouge, Florida came to Tiger Stadium needing a win to clinch the SEC East. The Gators, who were 14-point underdogs, captured a 16-10 win thanks to an epic goal-line stand in the game's final minute. Austin Appleby hit Cleveland, a true freshman at the time, with a 98-yard scoring strike for UF's lone TD of the game midway through the third quarter.

The rematch in Gainesville in '17 went to LSU by a 17-16 count, with UF kicker Eddy Pineiro missing an extra point late in the third quarter. The Gators still covered the number, though, as 1.5-point home underdogs.

When they collided at The Swamp on Oct. 6 of last season, Brad Stewart's interception of Joe Burrow that he returned 25 yards for a TD put a wrap on a 27-19 UF win as a one-point home underdog. Perine rushed 17 times for 85 yards and two TDs, while Hammond had three catches for 85 yards.

Burrow completed 19-of-34 throws for 192 yards, but he didn't throw a TD pass and was intercepted twice. He was limited to 22 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Jefferson had three receptions for 51 yards, while Edwards-Helaire had 55 rushing yards on 13 carries.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- In the last 10 UF-LSU head-to-head meetings, the highest total has been 49.5 points. The second-highest was 45.5 in 2009. The Tigers and Gators have played five consecutive one-possession games that have been decided by 25 combined points.

-- LSU has beaten Florida by double digits just twice since 2003. The Tigers won 17-6 in 2013 and 41-11 in '11 when UF had to start its third-string QB who had never taken a collegiate snap until walking on the field in Tiger Stadium against top-ranked LSU as a true freshman.

-- Florida junior safety Shawn Davis has a team-best three interceptions for 111 return yards.

-- According to PFF College, Trask has completed 38-of-49 throws on non-play-action passes for 451 yards and four TDs. That ranks ninth in the nation among qualified QBs.

-- Illinois QB Brandon Peters is ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s home game against his former team, Michigan, which was favored by 22.5 points as of late Friday afternoon. Peters has a 10/4 TD-INT ratio. The Illini are 5-10 ATS as a home underdog during Lovie Smith’s tenure, while Michigan is 6-9 ATS as a road favorite under Jim Harbaugh.

-- Purdue, a 3.5-point home underdog vs. Maryland, probably won’t have star WR Rondale Moore. The first-team All-American as a true freshman in 2018 injured his leg in a 38-31 home loss to Minnesota two weeks ago. Moore practiced some this week, but he’s listed as ‘doubtful’ against the Terrapins. Maryland will start Tyrrell Pigrome at QB with Josh Jackson ‘out’ injured.

-- Auburn RB JaTarvious Whitlow is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a knee injury sustained at UF last weekend. Whitlow is second in the SEC in rushing yards (544) and leads the league in TD runs with seven.

-- South Carolina, a 23-point road underdog at Georgia, is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games as a road underdog. In 10 games as double-digit underdogs during Will Muschamp’s tenure, the Gamecocks are 6-4 ATS with one outright victory.

-- Less than a week shy of the four-year anniversary of when Will Grier was suspended by the NCAA for testing positive for a banned substance when he was QB at Florida and the Gators were 6-0 in Jim McElwain’s first season at the helm, McElwain’s Central Michigan QB David Moore was suspended Tuesday by the NCAA for testing positive for a banned substance. CMU is appealing the suspension, but Moore won’t play Saturday vs. New Mexico State.

-- In our first Wednesday game of the season earlier this week, Appalachian State beat Louisiana by a 17-7 count as a two-point road underdog. The Mountaineers have now beaten the Ragin’ Cajuns by double-digit margins in all seven games of the rivalry since entering the Sun Belt Conference in 2014. Eliah Drinkwitz’s Appalachian State squad remains undefeated. Louisiana was the last remaining unbeaten team ATS, but that’s over now.

-- USC, a 10.5-point underdog at Notre Dame, is 1-9 ATS in 10 games as a road underdog during Clay Helton’s tenure. Helton will start true freshman Kedon Slovis at QB in South Bend.

-- TCU junior WR Dylan Thomas had season-ending leg surgery on Monday. Thomas had eight catches for 121 yards and one TD this year.

-- Houston, a 7.5-point home underdog vs. Cincinnati, has had two weeks to prep for the Bearcats, who fall into a vintage letdown spot after last Friday’s huge home win over Central Florida. The Cougars are 3-0 ATS as home ‘dogs since 2013. If we count a pair of games as home ‘dogs played at NRG Stadium, the home of the Houston Texans, they’re 5-0 ATS with an outright win over Oklahoma and a spread cover in a 31-24 loss to Washington State. earlier this season. With King out for the rest of the season to take a redshirt, back-up UH signal caller Clayton Tune completed 16-of-20 passes for 124 yards and one TD without an interception in a 46-25 win at North Texas two weeks ago. Tune, who had an 8/2 TD-INT ratio in two starts last year, also rushed for 100 yards on nine carries against the Mean Green.

-- Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Spielman remain ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s Big Ten showdown at Minnesota. The unbeaten Gophers were favored by 7.5 points as of late Friday afternoon. During my appearance on Severe and Benning on 1620 The Zone in Omaha on Wednesday morning, Severe told me that Spielman, a two-time second-team All-Big-Ten selection, is “going to play.” Minnesota is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite during PJ Fleck’s three-year tenure, while the Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs on Scott Frost’s watch. In fact, Nebraska is 13-5-1 ATS in 19 games as a road ‘dog since 2013.

-- Kentucky had failed to cover the spread in 10 straight games as a home favorite coming into this season. The Wildcats took the cash in their first two such spots this year, however, and they’re seven-point ‘chalk’ vs. Arkansas this week. Kentucky QB Sawyer Smith has been upgraded to ‘probable’ against the Razorbacks, who are 0-4 ATS as road underdogs since Chad Morris took over as head coach.

-- Duke, a 17 or 17.5-point home favorite vs. Georgia Tech, is 0-9 ATS in its last nine ACC games as a favorite.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-0 for the Old Dominion Monarchs, who are looking at a 47-point total for Saturday’s C-USA game at Marshall.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

RUTG at IND 12:00 PM
O 50.0

MEM at TEM 12:00 PM
TEM +4.5

MICH at ILL 12:00 PM
MICH -24.5

MD at PUR 12:00 PM
PUR +3.5
O 53.5

SOCAR at UGA 12:00 PM
SOCAR +21.5

MSST at TENN 12:00 PM
TENN +6.5

OKLA at TEX 12:00 PM
OKLA -10.5

TOL at BGSU 12:00 PM
O 65.0

M-OH at WMU 12:00 PM
M-OH +12.0
U 56.5

GT at DUKE 12:30 PM
GT +17.5
O 47.5

BALL at EMU 02:00 PM
BALL +2.0

ODU at MRSH 02:30 PM
ODU +14.5

CIN at HOU 03:30 PM
CIN -7.0
U 50.5

MSU at WIS 03:30 PM
MSU +10.0
U 41.0

WSU at ASU 03:30 PM
WSU -1.0

ALA at TAM 03:30 PM
ALA -17.0

NIU at OHIO 03:30 PM
NIU +6.5

KENT at AKR 03:30 PM
KENT -14.5
O 56.5

FSU at CLEM 03:30 PM
CLEM -27.5

CONN at TULN 03:45 PM
TULN -33.5