College Football Picks (& Trends) Week 5

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Here are the Top-25 and Double-Digit Favorites Trends breakdown of Week 3:

Top-25 Teams
Week 3 SU: 20-3
Running Total SU: 62-10
Week 3 ATS: 11-11-1
Running Total ATS: 35-34-3

Double-Digit Spreads (FBS vs FBS)
Week 3 SU: 25-2
Running Total SU: 76-8
Week 3 ATS: 18-9
Running Total ATS: 46-36-2

Totals in Games with Double-Digit Spreads (FBS vs FBS)
Week 3: 13 Overs (longest streak: 4 'Over' games) 14 Unders (longest streak: 3 'Under' games) 0 Pushes
Thru 9/15: 40 Overs (longest streak: 4 games) 42 Unders (longest streak: 7 games) 2 Pushes

Overview: Top-25 teams ATS as well as the totals in games with a double-digit favorite (FBS vs FBS) have held steady at about a 50/50 clip through the first three weeks of the season. That is something I expect to see at the end of the year, but there are usually runs throughout the season - much like we experienced last week with double-digit favorites breaking out to a +10 advantage ATS (46-36-2). The Dogs will have their run, too. So keep that in mind.

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Here are the Top-25 and Double-Digit Favorites Trends breakdown of Week 4:

Top-25 Teams
Week 3 SU: 14-8
Running Total SU: 76-18
Week 3 ATS: 12-10
Running Total ATS: 47-44-3

Double-Digit Spreads (FBS vs FBS)
Week 4 SU: 20-4
Running Total SU: 96-12
Week 4 ATS: 14-10
Running Total ATS: 60-46-2

Totals in Games with Double-Digit Spreads (FBS vs FBS)
Week 4: 12 Overs (longest streak: 4 'Over' games) 12 Unders (longest streak: 6 'Under' games) 0 Pushes
Thru 9/15: 52 Overs (longest streak: 4 games) 54 Unders (longest streak: 7 games) 2 Pushes

Overview: It's been three straight weeks above .500 for double-digit favorites ATS. I'll be in a point-taking mood this week. The totals in these games are still steady at about a 50/50 clip at 52-54-2 (o-u-p). That is just crazy to me. Week 1 was 15-15-2. Week 2 was 12-13-0. Week 3 was 13-14-0. And then, of course, there was last week's result.

Stay tuned for this week's selections...

Note: The first post was in error. I was trying to copy last week's message and edit but apparently, I posted it. Sorry for the confusion.

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Looking to stay hot this weekend... Let's get after it!

#107 Penn State -6 1/2 -115 2 units
#109 San Jose State +19 2 units
#110 San Jose State/ Air Force u57 1/2 1 unit

Good Luck!

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This week got off to a pretty good 2-1 start. As referenced above, I have a hunch that after three straight winning weeks of which we have seen double-digit favorites in FBS vs FBS games amass a 46-29-1 ATS record, I was going to look to take points in such games this week. So far, those teams are 1-1 ATS - Memphis (W) and Air Force (L) - and 2-0 SU...


Adding

#113 Northwestern +23 1/2 3 units
Noun. Classic letdown game. Use it in a sentence? Okay, but in all seriousness, Bucky has a huge probably with Wildcats. NW has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings and won 3 of those last 5 outright. Wisconsin looked damn good in their 35-14 beatdown of khaki-wearing, booger-snacking Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines. Oh, and those 14 points - those were the first points given up by that defense all year. Being at home, in my opinion, only exacerbates this letdown. It's a take.

#141 Middle Tennessee State +23 1/2 3 units
Okay, wow, weird scheduling, don't you agree? Yes, the Hawkeyes have a conference win over Rutgers already, but to stick a non-conference home game in on Week 5 is odd. Iowa is coming off a crazy 1-point win versus their in-state rival Iowa State. But for the angle in this game, it's not really about who they just played but rather about who they have on deck next week... Michigan. I look for Iowa to keep it rather buttoned up in this game and try to get off the field with a W on their edge in talent. Nothing schematic will nor should be shown here.

#199 Arkansas +23 1 unit
Ditto goes for Texas A & M. They have Alabama next. Arkansas is a raging dumpster fire, sure, but I think the Aggies have bigger fish to fry.

#120 Western Michigan -16 1/2 3 units
Q: What was the second most shocking result from last week (San Jose State beating Arkansas at Arkansas obviously being the first)? Well, if you ask me, it was definitely Central Michigan's road performance in a 17-12 loss at Miami. And when you combine that with their current opponent's last showing, Western's 52-33 loss to Syracuse, it's easy to see why everyone is taking the points. Western Michigan, however, has the most experienced team in the MAC. They're loaded with upperclassmen.


Good Luck!

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Good Luck PG

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Western Michigan has regained the lead... but a lot of time remains...

Adding

#154 Indiana/ Michigan State u43 1/2 1 unit

Good Luck!

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Adding

#122 South Florida +7 1/2 -115 2 units