College Football Picks (& Trends) Week 4

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Here are the Top-25 and Double-Digit Favorites Trends breakdown of Week 3:

Top-25 Teams
Week 3 SU: 20-3
Running Total SU: 62-10
Week 3 ATS: 11-11-1
Running Total ATS: 35-34-3

Double-Digit Spreads (FBS vs FBS)
Week 3 SU: 25-2
Running Total SU: 76-8
Week 3 ATS: 18-9
Running Total ATS: 46-36-2

Totals in Games with Double-Digit Spreads (FBS vs FBS)
Week 3: 13 Overs (longest streak: 4 'Over' games) 14 Unders (longest streak: 3 'Under' games) 0 Pushes
Thru 9/15: 40 Overs (longest streak: 4 games) 42 Unders (longest streak: 7 games) 2 Pushes

Overview: Top-25 teams ATS as well as the totals in games with a double-digit favorite (FBS vs FBS) have held steady at about a 50/50 clip through the first three weeks of the season. That is something I expect to see at the end of the year, but there are usually runs throughout the season - much like we experienced last week with double-digit favorites breaking out to a +10 advantage ATS (46-36-2). The Dogs will have their run, too. So keep that in mind.


Today, I'm going to 'Fight On'. The home team has been money in this series recently and the sharps have knocked this number down. Let's ride!

#306 USC +3 1/2 2 units

Best of Luck this week!

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Been looking at some of the early games. I'm sure we all can't wait to fall back an hour because this time difference is always a hassle. I'm pretty sure I'll have a couple of early totals - at least one - but I'd like to see how the line moves. The games I'm considering are LSU - Vanderbilt and Boston College - Rutgers. Anyway, I'm starting with this...

Adding

#333 Michigan State -8 2 units

I expect Sparty to be in a very bad mood. This is a lot to give a conference opponent on the road but I think this line speaks volumes. And the public and cash seems to be thinking this is an easy take. Let's get it!

[moondog22]

good luck peanuts

[Udog]

Thanks, PG! Good luck! Thanks for last night's winner!

[BettorsChat]

Good Luck PG

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Kicking woes continue for Sparty but they are covering at the moment. Having said that, the second half line was MSU -3 so I read that as the house going after the teaser money there. They've corrected the line to MSU -14 so if you took NW and teased it from +8 to +14, that should make you feel a little queasy... Here are my 0930 adds... Well, 0930 HST that is...


Adding

#365 Appalachian State +2 1/2 -105 4 units
Mac Brown is just not a great coach. Attention to detail is lacking... Another visit from Reality Check Tech this week for the Heels...

#313 Miami-OH/ Ohio State u57 2 units
Sharp money is on the under here. That may warrant a look at the points as well if you're feeling good...

#325 Temple/ Buffalo o50 1/2 1 unit
These two put up a lot of points in their head-to-head last season. I understand Temple is coming off a great defensive effort against what was a hot Maryland offense. Buffalo is averaging a little below 23 PPG (2 of which were against FCS competition). I think public perception has driven this line down too much. Grip it and rip it.

#328 Central Michigan/ Miami u48 1/2 1 unit

#362 Mississippi State -6 1/2 1 unit
C'mon, Bulldogs, you owe me from last week...


Off to the gym to watch these games and get a good sweat in. Be back later. Good Luck!

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Adding

#395 Nevada/ UTEP o51 2 units

Was also looking at Stanford and was ready to pull the trigger and the line moved from 12 to 12 1/2 to 13 close to kickoff which scared me off. Don't want to force anything... Probably be back later.

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Adding

#351 Colorado +8 1/2 2 units

This is more of a hunch play. The last four games in this series have resulted in covers by the home team. ASU's got a loaded coaching staff. I saw Marvin Lewis on the sidelines in East Lansing and I thought, 'Man, that just isn't fair'. And to their credit, they had a great game plan for the players and they executed against Sparty beautifully. So... a big road win, a coaching edge, breaking into the Top-25... I think it's time for a head-scratching performance by Sparky in front of the home crowd.

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Adding

#416 Hawaii -15 1/2 1 unit

We’ve seen this script before. UH faces an FCS team at home. But, it’s not just any FCS team. It’s a Top-25 FCS team. In this installment, this opponent happens to sport a victory over an FBS team. However, UH has a habit - a culture - of handling FCS teams. No worry, Beef Curry! Lay it and chillax.

Note: This is NOT a bailout game! Repeat: this is not a bailout game. If you’re up a little it’s a good proposition. If not, hold tight and fight another day. Best of Luck and Aloha!