NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Sep. 19 - Sat., Sep. 21)

[Udog]

Total Moves - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Obviously the oddsmakers weren't to happy with the fact that I got out the broom for the sweep with these selections in Week 2, as they flipped that broom around and spanked my ass with the handle to sweep Week 3's plays into the loser's circle. That's twice this year that betting Alabama totals has burned me, but Nick Saban has never really been a man of the people anyways, unless you are cemented to your seat for all four quarters.

Backing the Clemson 'over' never came close, as the defending National Champs brought their best form on defense yet again, holding Syracuse to just 6 points in a 41-6 laugher. But when you're involved in games with the top two teams in the country on the field, having them show up on either side of the ball isn't exactly surprising.

It's on to Week 4's selections of total moves plays though, and one thing's for sure, I'll be on the sidelines for Alabama's game this week.

YTD: 3-3 ATS

Week 4 Total move to disagree with:

Michigan State/Northwestern from 39 to 38

Not the biggest move south by any means on this number, as this Michigan State Spartans team is looking to rebound from a highly disappointing first loss of the year. Getting away from East Lansing and all the discussion about them losing as a 15-point favorite probably is a good thing in terms of them rallying around one another as they open up Big 10 play.

While there is no question that Michigan State's defense is one of the best in the country this year, but it's the Spartans offense that unquestionably has to pick things up and start carrying their own weight. That won't be easy against a Northwestern team that's good on defense as well, but Mark Dantonio has had a knack for knowing how to move the ball against the Wildcats and I doubt that changes this week.

Each of the last three meetings between these teams has cashed 'over' tickets, with total point numbers of 48, 70 (OT game), and 94. Each time the two teams have come into the game with the expectation from the betting market that it will be a brutal defensive slugfest – not total closed higher then 43 – and the two schools completely flipped the script in that regard. With the way both defenses have played this season with neither of them allowing more then 17 points against in any one game, that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it?

Furthermore, Northwestern as covered the spread in all three of those games, have scored no fewer then 29 points themselves in any one of those contests, and just like all three of those contests, they are catching points (+9) again this week. You give a 9-point underdog 20+ points on their home field, and chances are this total of 39 will be left in the dark by the time the midway point of the 3rd quarter rolls around as 'over' bettors smile at is as they surpass it.

With the betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com showing a healthy majority (75%+) on the low side of this number, it's best to be on the side of history between these two teams repeating itself this week as we get a lot of points relatively again. Situationally, Michigan State's offense knows it needs to be extremely better to stop putting the burden of each week's result on their defense, while Northwestern won't shy away from doing what they have to Dantonio's defenses the past three years and take full advantage of their opportunities.

Week 4 Total move to to agree with:

UCF/Pittsburgh from 58 to 61

This is another minority play based on the betting percentages currently up on the site (75%+), and while it is easily understandable as to why there is healthy support for the 'under' in the Michigan State/Northwestern game, the case for it here is a bit puzzling.

Yes, Pittsburgh has been a great 'under' team dating back to the end of last year as they are on a 0-7 O/U run as a program, but how much success they expect to have against a UCF attack that's put up 45 or more points in every game this year can't be a lot. The Knights have surprised me with just how good their offense remains to be this season, and even though Pittsburgh's defense has looked good for the bulk of 2019 – the season opening 30-14 loss to Virginia was a tad rough – I believe you've got to expect another 40+ point effort from UCF this week.

Maybe it's the fact that Pittsburgh played in a slugfest type game against Penn State last week and that's still fresh in the minds of the majority of the betting market, but remember conditions in that game weren't ideal, and that rivalry does tend to be a war. I mean, Pittsburgh's defense did little to stop UCF in this game a year ago (45-14 UCF win) and based on that alone, you've got to figure that Pittsburgh knows they've got to adopt a much more aggressive offensive approach to have a chance at pulling off the upset this season.

Just in terms of game script, if you give the Knights somewhere in the 35-45 point range for this game as it's not hard to do given their offensive performances this year, a 10-11 road chalk line suggests that Pittsburgh will be able to put up 24-34 points themselves in many likely scenarios. The lowest of those ranges don't eclipse the current number – hence the total move up – but the highest of those ranges eclipses the current number by multiple scores. That's quite the margin of error you've got in a game where you are also going against the majority of the market seemingly, even if you are betting into a bit of a bad number currently.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Central Michigan-Miami, Fl.: 51 to 48
Tennessee-Florida: 52 to 49
Nevada-UTEP: 54.5 to 52

Up
Bowling Green-Kent State: 59.5 to 62
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Notre Dame-Georgia: 56 to 58.5

[Udog]

Utah at USC
Matt Blunt

Venue/Location: L.A. Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 20, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1
Line: Utah -4, Total 51.5

It's the second Friday in a row that a Pac-12 team gets the Friday night spotlight, and this week it's a conference tilt between the Utes and Trojans.

For all the talk the Pac-12 gets about struggling to represent itself as a “true” Power Five conference on the national stage given they've got no “elite” team in their ranks, the conference enters the week with six schools ranked in the Top 25, and that's after USC fell out of the rankings after last week's loss at BYU. That was a tough loss to say the least for this Trojans team trying to climb back towards respectability on the national stage, it was a tough spot for them in general, on the road with a freshman QB Kedon Slovis making his first career road start.

The three INT's Slovis threw really hurt as it's hard to win at any level of football when you lose the turnover battle 3-0, and while they didn't lose any of the three fumbles they had too, USC was just all around too loose with the ball in Provo. USC will need to clean that up against a much better Utah team if they want a shot at winning on Friday night, and get what would be their first win against a ranked foe this year.

It is hard to erase the memory of those INT's that Slovis threw a week ago and it's decent support for Utah backers out there. But as I mentioned earlier, first true road starts for freshmen tend to come with some severe growing pains and Slovis wasn't immune to those at all. Utah's defense will present a much stiffer test then the brand of defense that BYU played, and that's another piece of support for Utah backers this week.

Yet, this game is back at The Coliseum and Slovis has been tremendous overall in his action on the field. Home field can mean more in the college game in general, but that's especially true when you've got a young QB at the helm. Even with the three INT's last week, Slovis has shown he's more then a capable passer at this level – which you can credit high school QB coach Kurt Warner with – and the friendly surroundings he'll be in under the lights should help mitigate potential mistakes. But as I said before, Utah's defense will look to be in Slovis' face all afternoon and confuse him with their looks to bait him into errors, and given the veteran-laden roster Utah has, it will be interesting to see how that ends up playing out.

At the same time, Utah and their QB Tyler Huntley will look to do what they did to this USC team a year ago – beating them 41-28 - in a game that wasn't really as close as that final score suggests. The Utes put up 550 total yards on offense and gave up just 205, which is nothing but more support for Utah backers this week.

However, Utah has yet to be tested in any sense in 2019, and as I touched on in this piece regarding Michigan, there is something to be said for teams having already faced adversity and understanding how they'll react in that scenario. USC understands that they would have likely had that BYU game had they been more diligent in protecting the ball, and that in terms of talent on the field, they are right there with Utah. Had last week's game in Provo ended in victory, this would have been a huge battle between ranked foes, and even though the Trojans don't have a Top 25 number beside their name now, they'll be right back in that group with a win this week.

Utah's still got unanswered questions about how they'll react when facing adversity or potentially trailing against a quality foe, as they've trailed for all of about five minutes so far this year. And while they did put a decent beating on the Trojans a year ago, things change quite a bit from season to season, and being in hostile territory never helps either. They are still 0-2 ATS this year despite two relatively easy wins, and even with about 70% of the support in the betting market already, the point spread has stayed relatively static. That's not a good sign either, and with 0-5 ATS run against a winning foe and after allowing fewer then 20 points in their last outing both active here, in terms of handicapping the market, there are a lot of warning signs littered out there for Utes backers.

Furthermore, the Pac-12's reputation of not being a player on the national stage stems from the idea that teams in this conference tend to beat up on one another and those losses by the higher ranked Pac-12 schools in those spots devalue the conference as a whole. Big picture, that's not necessarily a bad thing given that it suggests the bulk of the teams in the conference are fairly deep and evenly matched, because as the great Bill Walton never fails to remind us during basketball season, the Pac-12 is “the Conference of Champions.”

It would fit right into the Pac-12's M.O to see USC rise up at home in this spot and knock off a team that's ranked 11th in the country like Utah is, as Slovis and the rest of the Trojans offense clean up the sloppiness that plagued them a week ago.

The home side has won each of the past six meetings straight up as it is, and are 7-1 against the number going back a bit further. Slovis should be able to use last week's struggles as a great teaching moment to move forward in his career the rest of the way, and Utah is probably a bit to overvalued as it is, just based on the veteran roster that they have.

The Utes could easily stumble in their first road game of the year in a similar fashion to what we saw from USC a week ago, and it's not like the Trojans are the disaster of a program they were in 2018. So unless Mike Leach's concerns from his viral press conference this week are indeed true, and the Ute has upgraded to a rifle, I believe Friday night's game ends up going to the sword-wielding Trojans.

Best Bet: USC +4

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 1-2 ATS

[Udog]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Louisiana-Monroe at Iowa State (-18.5/55), 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Warhawks were prepared to go into a third OT with FSU last time they were on the field but saw their kicker blow the extra point in a grueling 45-44 loss in Tallahassee. With a week off to heal up, ULM will take another shot at a power-five and catches Iowa State in a vulnerable spot. The Cyclones suffered a disappointing 18-17 home loss to rival Iowa when a muffed punt prevented one last Brock Purdy-led drive. Big 12 play opens next week at Baylor. Matt Campbell faces a difficult task in getting his team focused on handling business against a dangerous team that comes to town with a veteran offensive line and a senior QB in Caleb Evans. RB Josh Johnson played sparingly last season but the former Ole Miss commit ranks fifth in the country in rushing yards.

Connecticut at Indiana (-27.5/56.5), 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Huskies turned to Jack Zergiotis, a true freshman from Montreal, after senior transfer Mike Beaudry was banged up and have now committed to him as the guy the rest of the way. It makes sense to let the kid grow into the role considering UConn will be an underdog in the majority of their remaining games, and head coach Randy Edsall plans to give him a long leash in airing it out to senior Ardell Brown and freshmen Matt Drayton and Cameron Ross. A young roster will make their first road appearance of the season and got good news as tackle Matt Peart overcame an injury scare and will anchor the line. The Hoosiers come off a 51-10 home loss to Ohio State, missing dual-threat QB Michael Penix due to an upper body injury. His status for this one remains up in the air and it looks increasingly likely that junior backup Peyton Ramsey will start. UConn owns a 2-0 lead in this series.

Michigan State (-9/37) at Northwestern, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Both teams have already lost to Pac-12 schools entering this conference opener, so the loser faces the season going off the rails before the first month. Mark Dantonio’s seat is suddenly feeling warm on the heels of a 7-6 season and discord could grow louder if his team falls to 22-20 over the past three years with a loss in Evanston. Northwestern has won the last three matchups, last losing to Sparty in ’13. Brian Lewerke has been inconsistent and the team is on yet another left tackle due to injury with Tyler Higby stepping in for Kevin Jarvis. Clayton Thorson never lost to Michigan State, but Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson is just getting comfortable and threw his first touchdown pass against UNLV in a game the Wildcats failed to cover. It’s time to see if Northwestern has any weapons capable of doing damage against a Michigan State unit that ranks third in the country in total defense. Early returns against Stanford weren’t promising. Kyric McGowan and JJ Jefferson must generate plays downfield to keep the Spartan defense from locking down RB Drake Anderson as they look to keep Northwestern from reaching its projected team total of 13.5/14 points.

Boston College (-18/57.5) at Rutgers, 12 p.m ET, BTN: The Scarlet Knights won’t have starting QB McLane Carter, the effective Texas Tech transfer, who hasn’t cleared concussion protocol after being dinged up at Iowa. Sophomore Art Sitkowski will see his first action of the season after throwing 18 interceptions and just four touchdowns as a true freshman. Coming off a 30-0 loss at the Hawkeyes, Rutgers will look to end a 14-game losing streak against fellow Power-5 schools. The Eagles will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss to Kansas in which they surrendered 567 yards. First-year defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan better get things figured out here since BC’s ACC slate the rest of the way is taxing and there’s a visit to Notre Dame the whole program has been pointing toward. Losing to the Jayhawks can derail a season in terms of finger-pointing, so this trip to Piscataway has acquired increased importance.

Western Michigan at Syracuse (-4.5/65.5), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: Dino Babers will look to get his season back on track against a familiar foe given his history of success in the MAC at Bowling Green and at ‘Cuse, where he’s 2-0 against teams from his old league since taking over. That includes a 55-42 win in Kalamazoo last season, but Eric Dungey ran for 200 yards and had to come into keep that game from getting away from the Orange. Tommy DeVito has really struggled with miscues in blowout losses to Maryland and Clemson and didn’t look sharp at Liberty so this will be a big spot for him to start generating some momentum against a defense he should be able to move the ball against. Another rough outing could lead to an upset inside the Dome since the Broncos are coming off a 57-10 rout of the same Georgia State team that went into Tennessee and won. Senior QB Jon Wassink has put up nice numbers of late and has a reliable receiving corps and RB LeVante Bellamy leads the MAC’s top stable of backs. If the Broncos offensive line can win their share of battles this game should come down to the final minutes.

Michigan at Wisconsin (-3.5/45), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines enter a game as an underdog for the first time since losing to Ohio State at home in 2017. Nearly losing to Army after failing to hammer Middle Tennessee has shaken confidence in Michigan despite all that talent on their roster. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones may debut and QB Shea Patterson should be able to move around a little better than he has after suffering an early oblique injury, which gives Michigan hope it can win in Camp Randall for the first time since 2001. The Badgers have outscored South Florida and Central Michigan by a combined margin of 110-0 behind a dominant defense and rushing attack. Safety Scott Nelson has been lost for the season and the caliber of competition is about to skyrocket, so we’re going to see what Wisconsin is all about on the heels of a 35-13 loss when these teams met in Ann Arbor last October. QB Jack Coan is off to a strong start and will need to be the x-factor in avoiding mistakes against Michigan’s defense.

California at Ole Miss (-2.5/42.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Teams from the Sun Belt, Mountain West and American have joined the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC in taking down SEC squads already this season. The Pac-12 still hasn’t broken through due to Auburn’s last-second comeback over Oregon but has a decent shot here if the Golden Bears are able to get their body clocks up for work earlier than usual. Cal’s defense is legit, coming through to fuel wins over an FCS power, nationally-ranked Washington in Seattle and last week’s win over North Texas and active NCAA passing leader Mason Fine. None of those teams has managed 20 points against the Bears, so Ole Miss will face a major test after figuring a few things out over the past few weeks against Arkansas and overmatched Southeastern Louisiana. Freshman Matt Corral-to-sophomore Elijah Moore isn’t as imposing as the punch the Rebels have packed in the past, but RB Scottie Phillips has picked up the slack and gives the offense balance. Cal shut down Ole Miss in 2017 as Justin Wilcox and Matt Luke met as first-year head coaches, winning 27-16 in Berkeley.

Tennessee at Florida (-14/49), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: With QB Feleipe Franks done for the season, the Gators will turn to Kyle Trask, who backed up Houston’s D’Eriq King in high school and is therefore making his first start in six years at any level as he takes the field to face the Vols. Trask helped Florida hold off Kentucky in Lexington and will look to help continue their run of dominance over Tennessee to 14 wins in 15 tries. A sturdy Gators defense may have a number of injury-related obstacles to overcome with DE Jabari Zuniga and corner CJ Henderson nursing ankle injuries. An already thin Florida secondary wouldn’t easily overcome the loss of Henderson, so keep an eye on that as Jarrett Guarantano comes into Gainesville looking to rebound from a brutal, a 7-for-18, 2-pick game in his only game against Todd Grantham’s UF defense. The Vols will welcome back corner Bryce Thompson, a Freshman All-American last season.

Southern Miss at Alabama (-38/61.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Crimson Tide surrendered 324 passing yards as South Carolina’s Ryan Hilinski fired off 57 throws, completing 36 as the Gamecocks tested their freshman against an elite defense all afternoon in Columbia. Alabama will see the most prolific passer it has faced to date in Southern Miss’ senior QB Jack Abraham, who threw for 463 yards and two scores last week in completing his first 17 passes against Troy. The national leader in completion percentage as a junior threw for a modest 215 yards against Auburn and wasn’t helped by Southern Miss rushing for 2.1 yards per carry in a 24-13 loss against the defense most comparable to what they’ll see against the Tide here. Tua Tagovailoa and the ‘Bama offense has averaged over 50 points per game through the season’s first three games and faces a secondary that surrendered over 500 yards through the air against Troy last week. Top linebacker Racheem Boothe left last week’s game but is expected to return despite sporting a walking boot. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Alabama surpass the 62-point mark .

LSU (-24/62.5) at Vanderbilt, 12 p.m. ET, SECN: Joe Burrow has been the nation’s most efficient quarterback this season and will look for a better showing against the winless Commodores than Georgia’s Jake Fromm and Purdue’s Elijah Sindelar, who each put up good numbers in blowing out Vandy. LSU’s offense is averaging 55 points entering this trip to Nashville and faces a defense that has surrendered over 500 yards per game. LSU should benefit from Vandy injuries on both sides of the ball. Vandy is the most penalized team at FBS level through two games and lists left tackle Devin Cochran as a game-time decision. If he doesn’t go, it’s hard to imagine the offense gaining much traction.


Afternoon Delights

UCF (-11/61) at Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The Knights won’t play another Power-5 until a bowl game, which if they get their wish, would be part of the national semifinals. UCF still must clear road hurdles at Cincinnati, Temple and Tulane, but it will be favored in every remaining regular-season contest and would have swept both its scheduled games against “big boys” if it handles business here after routing Stanford in Orlando last weekend. Freshman Dillon Gabriel has emerged as the top quarterback in the program, winning the starter’s gig over Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and junior holdover Darriel Mack, Jr., who has returned from injury. Following the footsteps of fellow Hawaiian McKenzie Milton, Gabriel secured his spot by throwing for 347 yards and four TDs against the Cardinal and has been incredible with his reads and ball placement down the field. He’ll be facing another highly thought of NFL prospect in safety Damar Hamlin after connecting with top WR Gabriel Davis to repeatedly torch Stanford CB Paulson Adebo, so a full national coming-out party is possible given the national broadcast. Pitt lost 45-14 to UCF in Central Florida last season but does have weapons on both sides of the ball that can make this a much closer game.

Washington (-8.5/49) at BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Huskies dropped their Pac-12 opener to Cal and seem likely to take a step back from contention after 32 wins in the past three years, but Chris Petersen has repeated proven he shouldn’t be written off. We’ll know more about whether a down year is indeed inevitable after this one since we’re not really sure how good BYU is either. Washington had a late 35-0 lead before the Cougs scored a late TD in last year’s meeting in Seattle, but this game is expected to be much closer. After opening the season with a lopsided loss to rival Utah, wins against Tennessee and USC has restored hope in Provo. Zach Wilson has gone from next-in-line to ordinary to favorite son again, answering questions about being the Mormon Manziel. The Cougs defense has risen up when they’ve needed to late in games but could be without linebacker Zayne Anderson and safety Sawyer Powell. BYU is staging a “white-out” to try and pull off an upset by rattling QB Jacob Eason in his first road start with U-Dub after transferring in from Georgia. Creating mistakes with pressure will be essential to a BYU upset bid.

Appalachian State at North Carolina (-2.5/58), 3:30 p.m. ET: The Mountaineers have dominated the first two games of the Eli Drinkwitz era but get their crack at their Super Bowl for the season as they visit Chapel Hill. The former NC State offensive coordinator should be well-versed in the Tar Heels’ personnel but will have to adjust to Mack Brown and his staff, who have certainly put a lot of their tendencies on tap since they’ve been involved in so many tight games to open the season. Freshman QB Sam Howell has lived up to the hype, showing poise beyond his years and a great ability to make plays, and he won’t be looking past this game since his parents are alumni and his brother and sister are Mountaineers. He’s been at his best in fourth quarters and should be tough to contain if this is close. Appalachian State is roughly three hours from Chapel Hill and will provide the final opportunity for standout QB Zac Thomas to light up a Power-5 this season given the Sun Belt’s bowl ties. A hot, sunny day could set the stage for a shootout.

Auburn at Texas A&M (-4/48), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: Freshman Bo Nix will make his first true road start as the Tigers look to win a third straight game in this series. Before the Sept. 7 loss to Clemson, last season’s 28-24 loss at Auburn was the Aggies’ most recent defeat under Jimbo Fisher, so this SEC opener has been circled on the schedule as a true springboard game for how this season is going to go for A&M considering they host Alabama on Oct. 12 and close with visits to Georgia at LSU. The pretender or contender thing will be decided today for both teams since Auburn will face all of those teams too, but starting 4-0 would certainly make for an easier ride for Gus Malzahn, who has already escaped disaster once thanks to a frantic comeback over Oregon in Week 1. A&M blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at Auburn last season that Kellen Mond had a hand in squandering, so he’ll need to respond by protecting the ball against the Tigers’ defensive front and minimizing miscues while keeping plays alive. The Ags are 9-1-1 ATS over their past 11 games at Kyle Field, with the lone loss coming in that 7OT win over LSU that the Tigers covered despite a 74-72 loss. The lesson here is that A&M has grown pretty reliable at covering the number at home.

Louisville at Florida State (-6.5/60.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The ‘Noles dropped their home opener to Boise State and the ACC opener at Virginia last week, but Willie Taggart’s buyout is too large for him not to get another season so long as his team doesn’t continue embarrassing him. FSU has played above-average teams and have had chances to win before sabotaging itself with defensive breakdowns and mental errors like penalties and turnovers, so there’s hope the team can still turn things around. It sounds like QB James Blackman is losing his grip on the job since the plan is to take a look at Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook early in a series here. Scott Satterfield has been forced to play three quarterbacks through three games due to injuries and lists Puma Pass as a game-time decision. Malik Cunningham is also available to start and freshman Evan Conley could see more action, so there are a lot of variables in play. Whoever starts will be doing plenty of handing off to redshirt freshman RB Javian Hawkins, who ranks 11th nationally in rushing and will be playing back in his home state.

[Udog]

by: Monte Andrews


BAD NEWS AT BOTH ENDS

The Tennessee Volunteers finally hit the win column last time out – but they'll be in tough to make it two straight as they tangle with the host Florida Gators in a Saturday afternoon encounter. While the Gators have tabbed inexperienced Kyle Trask as the starting quarterback in place of the injured Feleipe Franks, they'll likely lean on ground attack that has struggled to date. However, the Gators ground game should light up a Volunteers run defense that has been gashed for 157 yards per game and five touchdowns. Florida also has the edge on defense, having racked up an NCAA-best 16 sacks through three games.

Tennessee has allowed five sacks in three games, but hasn't faced the kind of pressure it will have to deal with Saturday. Look for Florida to control possession on the ground and bottle up the Vols' offense; we suggest the under on Tennessee's team total.


IT’S ALL RUNNING SMOOTHLY

The Washington Huskies aren't afraid to run the football – and they'll likely be doing a lot of it Saturday afternoon as they visit BYU. The Cougars have already knocked off a Pac-12 opponent in USC this season, but could find themselves helpless to slow down a Huskies rush attack that is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per carry behind No. 1 running back Salvon Ahmed (5.6 YPC, 2 TDs). BYU has been torched for 225 rushing yards per game on a 4.75 YPC average through three games, and allowed the Huskies to rack up 187 yards (5.1 YPC) in last season's humbling 35-7 defeat.

BYU comes in with one of the worst time-of-possession averages in the country – and with Washington clearly superior in the ground game, the Huskies are in a great position to cover the spread.


HOW LOW IS TOO LOW?

Oddsmakers are no fools, which is why they've slapped a rock-bottom total on Saturday's anticipated defensive struggle between host Northwestern and Michigan State. This game is sitting in the mid-to-high 30s, which should entice some bettors to say "that's too low" – but the real focus should be on the Spartans themselves, who fell flat offensively against Arizona State but have two things working in their favor Saturday. Offensive lineman and NFL draft prospect Jon Runyan will make his first start of the year, while running back Elijah Collins (281 yards) is on fire and should give MSU some much-needed gains on the ground.

With the Wildcats struggling on offense while ranking third-last in the Big Ten in both yards per carry against (4.56) and rushing yards per game allowed (175.3), the Spartans are in good position to cover at -9. And it doesn't hurt, either, that the road team is an incredible 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.


HEY, GUYS, CHILL!

If NCAA football had a trophy for good behavior, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane would probably crash the ceremony and steal the award for themselves. The Golden Hurricane look to avoid another penalty-filled mess as they host Wyoming on Saturday. Tulsa enters the weekend as the most penalized team in the FBS in terms of distance, racking up 341 yards worth of infractions while ranking second in total flags (37). They had 18 penalties in last weeks loss to Oklahoma State, and were fortunate to still convert the cover the week before despite being flagged 12 times in a 34-16 win over San Jose State.

Between Tulsa's lack of discipline and Wyoming averaging an incredible 241.3 rushing yards per game (28th-most in the FBS), the Cowboys look like a good bet to gain chunks of yardage on the ground and via a parade of yellow fabric. We like them to win this one outright as slight road underdogs.


SIT WILL START

Artur Sitkowski is in, and McLane Carter is out as the Rutgers Scarlet Knights prepare for a Saturday encounter with rival Boston College.

Sitkowski will take over as the starting quarterback while Carter remains in the concussion protocol after getting knocked out of the Scarlet Knights' 30-0 loss to Iowa in Week 2. Sitkowski came on in relief but completed just 4 of 11 pass attempts for 19 yards with an interception. Sitkowski wasn't any better last season, completing just 49.1 percent of his passes while compiling 18 interceptions against just four touchdown passes.

The Eagles might have just given up 48 points to Kansas, but the Jayhawks didn't have Sitkowski under center. Look to Boston College to cover with ease in this one.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

College football trends for Saturday’s games:

— Ball State covered twice in last 11 games as a road dog.

— New Mexico failed to cover last eight tries as a home favorite.

— Texas A&M covered six of last seven tries as a home favorite.

— Illinois is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog.

— Colorado State is 6-11 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.

— Washington State covered 10 of last 13 games as a Pac-12 home favorite.


**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Knowledge on some other college football games…..

UL-Lafayette had respectable 38-28 (+19) loss to Miss State in Superdome, then beat Liberty 35-14 (-14) and crushed a I-AA team. Ragin’ Cajuns are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog, 4-0 in last four games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Ohio U lost couple road games by 10-2 points (were +4 in both) after beating a I-AA team; Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 8-0 in last eight where spread was 3 or fewer points. Since 2012, MAC teams are 15-11 ATS when playing a Sun Belt opponent.

Nebraska won five of six Big 14 meetings with Illinois (favorites 4-2 ATS); teams split two meetings here, with Cornhuskers (-5.5) winning last one 28-6 two years ago. Nebraska is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a double digit favorites; they covered three of last four games as a road favorite, but lost only road game this year, 34-31 (-4.5) at Colorado, when Buffs threw for 375 yards. Under Smith, Illinois is 4-10 ATS when getting points at home.

First road game for Boston College squad that lost as 19-point favorites to Kansas LW; under Addazio, BC is 6-7 ATS when laying points on the road. Rutgers was outgained 438-125 LW in a 30-0 loss at Iowa; Scarlet Knights are 7-4 in last 11 games as a home underdog. BC won its last eight games (6-2 ATS) with Rutgers, winning their last three visits here, by 10-31-20 points (3-0 ATS). Last 5+ years, Big 14 teams are 19-14-1 ATS when playing an ACC opponent.

New Mexico State won five of last seven games with New Mexico; underdogs covered three of last four. Aggies won three of last five visits to Albuquerque (4-1 ATS). State lost its first three games this year by combined score of 131-27, going -3 in turnovers in all three games; they’re 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a road dog. Last four years, Lobos are 3-12 ATS as a home favorite, 0-6 last 2+ years- they gave 443 PY in a 39-31 win over a I-AA team.

Georgia State (+24) upset Tennessee, but then eeked past Furman 48-42 (gave up 526 TY) and got pounded 57-10 by Western Michigan LW (allowed 450 YR). Under Elliott, Panthers are 2-6-2 as a road underdog. Texas State is already 0-3, giving up 111 points; SMU ran for 390 yards against them LW. Last 6+ years, Bobcats are 5-10 as home favorites. Road team won four of last six Georgia State-Texas State games; GSU won its last two visits here, 33-30/41-19. Average total in last five series games: 68.2.

Appalachian State beat UNCC 56-41 (-23.5) in its first I-A game, but 49ers had 230 YR, gained 526 TY. ASU is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog, 1-3-1 in games where spread was 3 or fewer points. North Carolina is 2-1 this year, with all three games decided by 6 or fewer points. Tar Heels are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite; they host Clemson next week, had best not look past this game. Last 4+ years, ACC teams are 9-3 ATS when playing a Sun Belt squad. Mack Brown used to coach App State, long time ago.

Wyoming is 3-0 despite gaining only 216 yards in its 21-16 win over I-AA Idaho LW; Cowboys have been outgained in all three games, have thrown for total of only 245 yards- under Bohl, they’re 12-10 ATS as road underdogs. Tulsa led Okla State 21-20 at the half LW but lost 40-21, giving up 337 YR. Golden Hurricane is 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Last 3+ years, Mountain West teams are 10-1 ATS when playing an AAC team.

First road start for South Carolina’s frosh QB Hilinski, who was 36-57/324 vs Bama LW. Carolina allowed 483-571 TY in losing both its I-A games, to UNC/Alabama; Gamecocks covered their last six tries as a road underdog. Missouri gave up 297 YR in an upset loss at Wyoming, then waxed West Virginia 38-7; under Odom, Tigers are 8-5 ATS as home favorites. Underdogs are 5-3 SU in last eight South Carolina-Missouri games; Gamecocks won two of their last three visits to Mizzou.

Road team covered last five West Virginia-Kansas games, with WVU winning all five, taking 56-34/49-0 decisions in last two visits to Lawrence. Jayhawks (+19.5) pulled shocker LW at BC, winning 48-24, week after they lost to Coastal Carolina; Kansas are 7-11-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home dog. At LSU, Miles was 3-3 as a home dog. WVU lost its first road game 38-7 at Mizzou (outgained 382-171) but spanked NC State at home LW; Mountaineers are 6-7 in last 13 games as a road favorite.

SMU scored 44.3 ppg in its 3-0 start, with Texas transfer Buechele at QB; Mustangs won their only road game, 37-30 (+2.5) at Arkansas State. SMU is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog. TCU won its last seven games with SMU (4-1-1 ATS in last six), but Mustangs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits to Fort Worth. TCU outgained Purdue 421-204 in LW’s 34-13 (-3) road win; Frogs are 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Last 2+ years, Big X teams are 8-4 ATS when playing an AAC opponent.

Stanford gave up 45-45 points in losing its last two games, 45-27 at USC, 45-27 at UCF; Cardinal gave up 724 PY in those two games. Over last decade, Stanford is 5-0 ATS when getting points at home. Oregon beat up on couple stiffs after losing its opener 27-21 to Auburn; since 2011, Ducks are 17-7 ATS as a road favorite, 2-1 under Cristobal. Stanford scored 46.3 ppg in winning its last three games with Oregon; favorites covered four of last five series games. Ducks won three of last five visits to The Farm.

Florida State is 13-15 SU in its last 28 games, 1-2 this year; Seminoles ran ball for less than 100 yards in both its losses, to Boise State/Virginia. FSU is 12-17 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite- they’re 2-7-3 ATS in last dozen games laying a single digit spread. Louisville QB Pass is a ?mark here; Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Underdogs covered five of last seven Louisville-Florida State games; teams split last two meetings, which were decided by total of seven points.

UCLA is playing terribly, outscored 95-42 in its 0-3 start; they’re completing only 54% of their passes, have run for only 111.3 ypg. Bruins are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog. Dogs covered last five UCLA-Washington State games; teams last meet three years ago. Teams split last six games played here; dogs covered five of last seven meetings here. Wazzu is 3-0 but allowed 455 YR in its last two games- they got a solid 31-24 win at Houston LW, throwing for 440 yards. Gordon is completing 78.7% of his passes. Coogs are 14-9 in last 23 games as a HF.

[Udog]

[Udog]

College football Saturday odds and line moves: Sharp, public Georgia action has book needing Notre Dame
Patrick Everson

We’ve got a big college football Saturday on tap, with three matchups among teams ranked in the top 15, highlighted by a battle between the hedges. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for that clash and several more, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.

NO. 7 NOTRE DAME AT NO. 3 GEORGIA – OPEN: -13.5; MOVE: -14; MOVE: -13.5; MOVE: -14; MOVE: -14.5

After reaching the College Football Playoff final two years ago, Georgia missed the CFP last year and is looking for an early-season boost in this 8 p.m. ET meeting. The Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are taking a sizable step up in class, after thumping Arkansas State 55-0 as 32.5-point home favorites in Week 3.

Notre Dame reached the CFP semifinals last season, and getting a return trip could hinge largely on how Brian Kelly’s squad looks tonight. The Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) dumped lightweight New Mexico 66-14 as 34.5-point home faves last week.

The Bulldogs got enough early support at William Hill books – in Nevada, New Jersey and beyond – to push the line right through the key number of 14.

“We’re gonna need Notre Dame. The public and sharps are on Georgia,” Bogdanovich said. “There’s actually public money for both teams. We’ll have a decision, but not a monster decision.”


NO. 10 MICHIGAN AT NO. 14 WISCONSIN – OPEN: -3; MOVE: -3.5

Michigan nearly took itself out of the CFP conversation in nonconference play two weeks ago. The Wolverines (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) were healthy 21.5-point home favorites against Army, but never led until overtime, escaping with a 24-21 victory. Michigan had a bye last week.

Wisconsin had a Week 3 bye, as well, after winning and cashing in its first two games by a combined score of 110-0. In Week 2, the Badgers boatraced Central Michigan 61-0 laying 34 points at home.

“It looks like we’ll need Michigan,” Bogdanovich said of this noon ET kickoff. “The masses are a little more on Wisconsin than on Michigan.”


NO. 9 AUBURN AT NO. 15 TEXAS A&M – OPEN: -4; MOVE: -3.5; MOVE: -4

Auburn is out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, including a Week 1 win over Oregon, followed by a couple of wins against lesser lights. In Week 3, the Tigers pounded Kent State 55-16 as hefty 36-point faves.

Texas A&M (2-1 SU) hasn’t let down bettors yet, going 3-0 ATS, including in a 24-10 Week 2 loss catching 16.5 points at No. 1 Clemson. The Aggies faced FCS foe Lamar in Week 3 and ran it up 62-3 giving 45 points at home.

“Very disappointing handle in that game,” Bogdanovich said, noting WillHill doesn’t have a rooting interest – yet. “At 12:30 Pacific, we’ll have a need.”


NO. 16 UCF AT PITTSBURGH – OPEN: +11.5; MOVE: +12.5; MOVE: +13; MOVE: +13.5 MOVE: +13; MOVE: +12.5; MOVE: +12 MOVE: +11.5; MOVE: +11

Central Florida is a regular-season monster both SU and ATS, having won 27 in a row on the field while going 19-7-1 ATS in that stretch. The Knights (3-0 SU and ATS) stopped Stanford 45-27 giving 9.5 points at home in Week 3.

Pittsburgh (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) had a surprisingly strong Week 3 showing, giving a Power Five unit and instate rival all it could handle. The Panthers were tied with Penn State at halftime 10-10 and only allowed one more score, but couldn’t add to their total in a 17-10 loss catching 17 points on the road.

This game probably wouldn’t be on the radar were it not for a whopping $166,250 moneyline bet on Central Florida -475, to win $35,000. Even with the line trending toward Pitt, WillHill definitely needs the ‘dog in this 3:30 p.m. ET contest.

“It seems like every other bet is on Central Florida, too. The public is all over the Knights, and the Knights have been very good to the public,” Bogdanovich said. “The sharps might be on Pitt, but this is gonna be a big one. We need Pitt.”


NO. 17 OREGON AT STANFORD – OPEN: +10; MOVE: +10.5

After losing to Auburn on a stunning last-seconds TD in Week 1, Oregon rebounded with a couple of wins over much lighter competition. Last week against Montana, the Ducks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) rolled 35-3, but failed to cover the heavy 39.5-point spread.

Stanford QB K.J. Costello suffered a head injury in a Week 1 win over Northwestern and missed Week 2’s loss at Southern California. Costello returned in Week 3, but that wasn’t nearly enough at Central Florida, where the Cardinal (1-2 SU and ATS) lost 45-27 getting 9.5 points.

“We’re gonna need Stanford pretty good,” Bogdanovich said of a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. “When push comes to shove at the end of the night, everyone is gonna be on Oregon.”


Other notable matchups:

• No. 5 LSU at Vanderbilt, noon ET: The Tigers opened -24, dipped to -23, then returned to -24 Thursday. “That’ll be a big one, and we’ll need Vandy,” Bogdanovich said.

• No. 23 California at Mississippi, noon ET: This game opened pick and went to the host Rebels -2 within just a couple of hours Monday, then stayed there until ticking to -2.5 Friday afternoon. “We’re dead even to it. I think the sharps are on Ole Miss and the public is on Cal.”

• Nebraska at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET: The visiting Cornhuskers opened -11 and stretched to -13.5 twice, then dialed back to -13 Friday morning. “We’ll need Illinois for a pretty good amount,” Bogdanovich said.

• UCLA at No. 19 Washington State, 10:30 p.m. ET: It’s Pac-12 After Dark, one of this week’s get-even or get-even-deeper games. The Cougars opened healthy 19-point favorites against the winless Bruins, and the line quickly went to 20 before peeling back to 18.5 Tuesday. “There’s not much to the spread betting, but parlays, moneyline parlays and teasers are all Washington State,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll need UCLA big.”

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

College Football Week 4 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 47-11
Against the Spread 30-27-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 26-31-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 29-27-2

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 250-39
Against the Spread 146-136-7

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 209-76
Against the Spread 132-146-7

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 138-148-5

The largest underdogs to win straight up
San Jose State (+20, ML +800) at Arkansas, 31-24
UCLA (+18, ML +700) at Washington State, 67-63
Buffalo (+14, ML +450) vs. Temple, 38-22
Pittsburgh (+10, ML +320) vs. UCF, 35-34
Colorado (+7.5, ML +295) vs. Arizona State, 34-31
SMU (+7.5, ML +240) at TCU, 41-38

The largest favorites to cover
Clemson (-41.5) vs. Charlotte, 52-10
Ohio State (-38.5) vs. Miami-Ohio, 76-5
Alabama (-37) vs. Southern Miss, 49-7
Wake Forest (-30) vs. Elon, 49-7
Indiana (-27.5) vs. Connecticut, 38-3
LSU (-24) at Vanderbilt, 66-38

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- The big story in the AAC was in the Steel City, as UCF was tripped up by Pittsburgh, 35-34. As such, the Knights saw their 25-game regular-season win streak dating back to Nov. 2016 snapped. Not only was it the first loss for UCF, it was their first non-cover, too. The 'over' has hit in their past two after two 'under' results to start. ... SMU picked up a nice 41-38 road victory against TCU, as the Mustangs moved to 4-0 SU for the first time since 1984, and they also improved to 4-0 ATS with the 'over' 4-0. ... Tulsa didn't cover, but they were able to top Wyoming, 24-21. They're 2-2 SU/ATS, which is rather inconsistent, but the 'under' has connected in each of their four outings to make them a favorite of total bettors. ... Tulane opened the week with a 38-31 victory over Houston, improving to 3-1 SU/ATS. It also started the weekend off with the first bad beat (see below).

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Appalachian State picked North Carolina up the 34-31 win at Kenan Stadium, blocking a potential game-tying field goal to secure the road win. After opening 2-0 SU/ATS, the Tar Heels are 0-2 SU/ATS across the past two. ... Florida State posted a much-needed 35-24 victory against Louisville. While it still wasn't a complete game, as the Seminoles blew a 21-0 lead after 15 minutes, they were able to come back in the fourth quarter for their first cover of the season after opening 0-2-1 ATS. It was also FSU's first 'under' result after three overs. ... N.C. State held off Ball State, 34-23 in a game which saw the total end as a bit of a bad beat (see below). ... It wasn't quite a bad beat, but Clemson topped Charlotte, 52-10. With just over six minutes to go, leading 45-10, the Tigers scored a touchdown to not only flip the side to Clemson -41.5, but the total of 60.5 also went over. ... Miami-Florida survivied a scare from Central Michigan, winning a low-scoring 17-12 game. As such, the Hurricanes are 2-2 SU/ATS and the total is 2-2 as well. The Canes are the picture of mediocrity.

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State roughed up Miami-Ohio by a 76-5 score after shaking off the Redhawks. It was just 7-5 after 15 minutes, but the Buckeyes scored 42 points in the second quarter to blow it wide open. The Buckeyes have managed at least 42 points in each of their four outings, and they have covered three in a row since failing to cover against FAU in the opener. The 'over' is also 2-0 in the past two, thanks to 127 points of offense. ... After a dismal offensive performance last week Michigan State was able to bounce back, winning at Northwestern, 31-10. The Spartans defense has been stingy, allowing just 11.0 PPG through for outings. ... In the marquee game of the day in the conference it was Wisconsin humbling the so-called great Jim Harbaugh and Michigan, 35-14. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at halftime and were never really in the game. The Badgers are 3-0 SU/ATS. On a positive note for the Wolverines, they were the first team to score against the Badgers in 2019 after 10 consecutive scoreless quarters to begin the season.

BIG 12

-- Kansas was back to their losing ways, falling to West Virginia by a 29-24 score. However, the Jayhawks put up a strong fight and proved their no longer going to be an easy out. KU has scored 24 or more points in three of their four outings. ... Oklahoma State picked up a cover at most shops with their 36-30 loss at Texas, but the Longhorns were able to pick up the much-needed marquee win. It won't get any easier for the Longhorns, as they visit Morgantown next week before their annual Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma. ... Iowa State smashed Louisiana-Monroe by a 72-20 count. The Cyclones were impressive on offense, posting at least 13 points in every quarter, while outscoring the visitors 45-7 in the second half. ... It wasn't impressive, but Baylor topped Rice 21-13 in a low-scoring battle. The Bears might be 3-0 SU, but they're 1-2 ATS so far. It was their first 'under' result after a pair of overs to start. In fact, the Bears entered averaging 59.5 PPG. They're allowing just 14.7 PPG through three games.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic socked around FCS Wagner at FAU Stadium by a 42-7 count. This game featured a little bit of a bad beat for total bettors (see below). ... UAB went for a 35-3 victory against South Alabama, picking up the eary cover. While it wasn't a bad beat, over bettors (48) were a little unhappy with the result. There were 31 points on the board at halftime, but a total of just seven points in the third quarter and no points in the fourth. ... Old Dominion fired out to a 10-0 lead after 15 minutes at Virginia, and they held a 17-7 victory at the break. It was shades of ODU's win last season against Virginia Tech. However, the Cavaliers outscored the Monarchs 21-0 in the final 30 minutes, covering a 14-point second-half line while the 'under' came in for the game and the second half. ... Louisiana Tech picked up a 43-31 win against Florida International. Perhaps the biggest surprise in this game was the 'over' (51) cashing after a scoreless first quarter. FIU, picked to finish second in C-USA preseason polls, is now 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. This was also a good ol' fashioned C-USA bad beat (see below).

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- It was a rough week for the MAC, as the league went 3-6 SU in games against non-league opponents. However, Toledo was able to pick up and impressive road win at Colorado State, 41-35. However, the Rockets just missed the cover at both shops by a half-point. ... Kent State hammered Bowling Green in the conference opener for both. The Golden Flashes entered the game with a total of 49 points in their first three outings. Their cover was the first since Aug. 29, their opener. The 'over' has cashed in the past two for Kent State, too. ... Buffalo earned a little bit of respect back for the league with a 38-22 win over Temple as 14-point underdogs. It was their first cover after opening 0-3 ATS.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- New Mexico outlasted New Mexico State in a crazy 55-52 victory in Albuquerque. When the Lobos and Aggies hook up there are plenty of points sure to follow. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 for UNM so far, as they have averaged 36.0 PPG on offense while yielding 46.3 PPG on defense. ... San Jose State scored a huge victory for their program, topping Arkansas by a 31-24 count. It was the first win against a Power 5 opponent since 2006 for the Spartans. The 'under' has cashed in all three games for San Jose State so far, ans they're a respectable 2-1 SU. The cover was their first of the season, too. ... Nevada posted a nice 37-21 road win over UTEP, moving to 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The 'over' is also 3-1 in four games for the Wolf Pack. ... Utah State earned the 23-17 victory at San Diego State to move to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. ... Boise State remained perfect at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS after topping Air Force on Friday night by a 30-19 score. After UCF's lost to Pitt, the Broncos are now likely the top Group of Five entrant.

PAC-12

-- The game of the day might have been in Pullman. Well, if you like offense, that is. Washington State was comfortably ahead by a 49-17 score midway through the third quarter, and UCLA looked dead in the water. However, the Bruins, who scored 42 total points over their first three games, and exactly 14 points in each, rattled off 50 points in the final 22 minutes to outlast the Cougs 67-63. It was an unbelievable game, and QB Anthony Gordon of Washington State tossed a school record nine touchdown passes and lost. ... California stayed unbeaten with a road victory at Mississippi, 28-20. It was a controversial ending, as it appeared the Rebels scored to cut the lead to 28-26. However, the receiver looked to have two feet down in the end zone and the play wasn't even reviewed. The Rebels were stuffed on the next play and time ran out, handing the Rebels a tough loss on their home field. ... Colorado outlasted Arizona State, 34-31, despite the fact they lost star WR Laviska Shenault to an injury early on, as well as pro prospect DT Mustafa Johnson. The Buffaloes are now 3-1 SU/ATS, bouncing back from their overtime loss against Air Force.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Tennessee was hammered by their rivals in Florida, 34-3. It was rather surprising since the Gators were down to their backup quarterback after losing QB Feleipe Franks last week. The Gators are now 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS, and the 'under' has cashed in three of their four outings. ... One of the more overlooked games, it seems, was Auburn-Texas A&M. The Tigers fired out to a 14-0 lead and held on for the 28-20 win over the Aggies as the total pushed at most shops. The Tigers are now an impressive 4-0 ATS, and their offense still hasn't started to hit on all cylinders. ... Alabama posted the 49-7 win over Southern Miss, earning the late cover. How late? See bad beats below, as the Tide were involved for the second straight week. ... Georgia-Notre Dame was the game everyone was talking about, and the battle actually lived up to the hype. The Irish had their chances late, but they fell 23-17 in between the hedges. The Bulldogs have allowed just 10.0 PPG, and the 'under' is 3-1 in four games for UGA, and 3-0 in their three outings vs. FBS opponents.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State spiked the ball as time ran out in regulation, and Texas State celebrated on the field. They thought they won 27-24, but after review, it was determined they had :01 left. They booted the field goal to send the game to overtime. With a total of 62.5, OT was the last thing under bettors wanted to see. GSU scored a TD to take a 34-27 lead, and they just needed defense for the cover and under. Neither happened, as the Bobcats scored to tie it 34-34. After a missed field goal by TSU, the Panthers had a chance to win it and missed their field goal, too. In 2 OT, the Panthers again misfired, while the Bobcats sunk them to win 37-34. It was a push at most shops. ... Troy notched a 35-7 road victory against Akron. The Trojans have scored at least 35 points in all three of their games, but this was their first cover and 'under' result. The Trojans have scored at least 35 points in all three of their games, but this was their first cover and 'under' result. The Zips are now 0-4 SU/ATS.

Bad Beats

-- In the Ball State-N.C. State game, there was a total of 59. At 34-16, the Cardinals scored a touchdown at 4:49 to go, making it 34-23. They recovered the onside kick and appeared to be in business. They drove inside the red zone with less than three minutes to go, but their QB forced one into coverage, it was tipped and picked off. Instead of a sure field goal to make it 34-26, and a one-possession game, and more importantly, 'over', the 'under' came through.

-- The Crimson Tide were leading 42-7 with 5:43 to go in the third period, and that score held up for the next 19 minutes. The Crimson Tide, favored by 37, appeared like they were going to win by 35. However, they ended up punching in a touchdown with 1:37 to go to get the late cover. For the second straight week the Tide were involved in a bad beat in the final moments of a blowout.

-- In the Wagner-FAU game, the Owls held a 42-7 lead late. The Seahawks got the ball down inside the FAU 5-yard line. They were stuffed several times and ended up turning the ball over on downs, failing to get it into the end zone. A touchdown would have pushed the total over (55.5), but the game ended up with a total of 49 points on the board.

-- In that Houston-Tulane game, the Green Wave were favored by four points. The game was tied 31-31 with less than 10 seconds left, and appeared headed for overtime. However, Tulane struck for a 53-yard touchdown with :03 remaining to win it 38-31, sinking those holding Cougars tickets.

-- The end of the FIU-Louisiana Tech game was gross if you were a Golden Panthers backer, catching six or seven. FIU scored a touchdown with :51 left to cut the Bulldogs lead to 36-31. It appeared you were in line for a nice backdoor cover, and a bad beat if you were a Louisiana Tech side bettor. However, just five seconds later the Bulldogs scooped up the onside kick and returned it 30 yards for the touchdown. It was like losing twice if you held an FIU ticket.

[Udog]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 4
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fourth big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Tulane (-4½) 38, Houston 31: The Thursday night underdog certainly looked promising in AAC action as D’Eriq King sparked Houston to a 28-7 edge just a few minutes into the second quarter. Tulane answered to get within 14 where the margin held past halftime. Tulane hit a 48-yard pass play to close to within seven early in the third quarter and then early in the fourth, the Green Wave tied the game by completing a 93-yard drive while Houston had a pair of punts and the team’s second missed field goal of the game to start the second half. Tulane added three with about six minutes remaining to take the lead while Houston put together a lengthy drive looking for the win in regulation. The Cougars reached the Tulane 4-yard-line with 30 seconds remaining but ultimately had to settle for a short tying field goal with 21 seconds remaining. A fake kneel-down from Tulane led to an 18-yard gain to give the Wave a chance for a late score and Jalen McClesky made a catch in traffic around the 25-yard-line and scampered into the end zone in the final seconds as Tulane improbably won the game and slid past the favorite spread in a dramatic finish.

Louisiana Tech (-7) 43, FIU 31: With James Morgan back in action, FIU’s offense finally clicked and this game turned into a shootout in the second half after a 13-10 Bulldogs lead at the break. Louisiana Tech still led by just three heading into the fourth quarter after these squads traded leads in the third quarter. FIU’s defense held Louisiana Tech to three consecutive field goals to fall behind by 12, but they didn’t add points of its own until the final minute, scoring what looked like the underdog covering score with 51 seconds to go for a five-point margin. The ensuing on-side kick attempt went awry however as it was caught and returned for a short kickoff return touchdown for the Bulldogs to give the favorite the cover right back.

Syracuse (-3½) 52, Western Michigan 33: The production in this game wound up nearly even and the score was close to that as well late in third quarter as back-to-back Western Michigan scores turned a 38-19 Orange edge into a 38-33 margin heading into the fourth quarter. The Broncos forced an early fourth quarter punt and had the ball approaching midfield before a huge swing as they were stopped going for it on 4th-and-1 from the their own 41. Syracuse needed only a few plays to find the end zone inheriting great field position, pushing the lead to 12. The Broncos reached Syracuse territory on the next possession, but failed on 4th-and-10 from the Syracuse 28. Syracuse added another touchdown with about three minutes remaining in the game to pad the final score.

New Mexico (-4) 55, New Mexico State 52: These rivals were tied at 31-31 at halftime, but New Mexico took charge in the third quarter with three scoring drives to lead by 10 heading into the final frame, a lead the Lobos extended to 17 early in the fourth quarter. The Aggies didn’t mail it in by scoring a touchdown halfway through the fourth and then getting back in the game with an interception. New Mexico State added a quick touchdown to trail by only three in the final minutes, a score that shifted the spread outcome. New Mexico had to covert a 4th down to close out the game before eventually taking knee inside the New Mexico State 10-yard-line.

California (+3) 28, Mississippi 20: Pac-12 officials added another chapter to their infamous legacy in this non-conference game at Ole Miss. The Bears were in control and had a 28-13 edge well into the fourth quarter despite a big yardage edge for the Rebels. Mississippi made a late charge with an 88-yard touchdown drive to get within a single score with 4:29 remaining. Cal opted to punt on 4th-and-1 near midfield as the Rebels had the ball back with an opportunity to tie. Without timeouts, John Rhys Plumlee engineered a great drive and the pivotal play occurred on 3rd-and-goal from the Cal 3-yard-line. Plumlee hit Elijah Moore who turned to the ball with his feet in the end zone before being tackled. The official spotted the ball short of the end zone and there was not a stoppage for a review on what certainly looked like a potential touchdown. With only seconds on the clock, Mississippi scrambled to the line to run a play and a disorganized 4th down sneak was stuffed as time expired and the Bears held on the for the win, avoiding the possibility of overtime.

Alabama (-36½) 49, Southern Miss 7: If Nick Saban wants fans to stay all four quarters of Alabama games, he just needs to make sure they have action on the spread as another Tide game featured a very late spread-result shifting score. Southern Miss trailed just 28-7 at the half, but Alabama pushed the margin to 42-7 by the fourth quarter, not quite enough on the heavy favorite number. Southern Miss burned substantial clock on a fourth quarter drive, but facing 4th-and-14 near midfield, they simply opted to punt. Alabama didn’t seem likely to go the length of the field in that situation, but Jaylen Waddle returned the punt 41 yards to put the Tide in great field position with still seven minutes remaining. Alabama opted to go for it on 4th-and-5 and Taulia (not Tua) Tagovailoa hit a 20-yard pass for the first down and a few plays later Jerome Ford rushed into the end zone to flip the spread result inside of two minutes.

West Virginia (-5) 29, Kansas 24: The Mountaineers led by only three heading into the fourth quarter, but managed to pull away with a pair of long drives, though resulting in only nine points with a short field goal and a touchdown but with a missed two-point try. That 12-point margin loomed large on the potential spread outcome on a line that landed right at -5. Kansas would indeed get a touchdown with about two minutes remaining to hit that five-point margin and the Jayhawks defense forced a punt to at least get the ball back though with only 32 seconds and no timeouts. Kansas picked up two modest gains and on the final play delivered a lateral play that for a moment had a chance, ultimately reaching the West Virginia 12-yard-line before the Mountaineers were able to clinch the win.

Florida State (-6½) 35, Louisville 24: Florida State jumped out to a 21-0 lead in this contest, but early leads have consistently melted away for the Seminoles this season. Louisville would score the next 24 points to lead by three as an underdog early in the fourth quarter. With Wisconsin-transfer Alex Hornibrook in the game, the Seminoles struck a 60-yard pass play for the go-ahead score halfway through the final frame. The Florida State defense stepped up with a three-and-out and a 15-yard penalty helped the cause to give the Seminoles great field position. Florida State eventually opted to kick a field goal from 4th-and-1 but a roughing the kicker call gave the Seminoles 1st-and-goal at the one and a potential 6-point lead became an 11-point margin. On its last possession, Louisville’s offense reached the Florida State 39 before running out of time.

Clemson (-41) 52, Charlotte 10: Charlotte’s numbers vs. Clemson were certainly better than some have posted vs. the Tigers, but the 49ers still trailed 31-0 before the halfway point of the second quarter. Down 45-3 in the third, Charlotte got a muffed punt to get the ball at the Clemson 12 and they cashed in, bringing the margin to 35 points. Clemson backup quarterback Taisum Phommachanh was picked off on the next drive to end a scoring threat as the 49ers had a chance to hold on to the cover but late in the game a Phommachanh pass got 15-yards added to it with a penalty and Michel Dukes broke free for a 24-yard touchdown run to inch past the spread.

Texas State (-3) 37, Georgia State 34: Texas State broke a 17-17 tie with a field goal late in the third quarter before an exciting finish in this Sun Belt opener. Georgia State had a 13-play touchdown drive to take the lead with about eight minutes to go, but Texas State answered with a touchdown drive completed on a 20-yard rush to go back up by three. Georgia State had a shot to win in regulation reaching 1st-and-goal form the 2-yard-line, but an untimely false start pushed the team back. Pass interference on Texas State gave that yardage back, but cost time and ultimately that proved to be the issue as the Panthers had to settle for the tying kick. After matching touchdowns in the first overtime, both teams would miss mid-40s field goals in the second overtime and Georgia State would do it again to start the third round. Despite a combined -20 yards from both teams in the second and third overtimes, Texas State kicker Joshua Rowland finally nailed the fourth field goal attempt of overtime from 35-yards as Texas State got its first win and the game finished on the number.

Oregon (-12½) 21, Stanford 6: Oregon’s high scoring offense was held in check in this game, but they took a 14-3 lead into halftime after getting a touchdown on a drive with two 3rd-and-long conversions while a Stanford drive into Oregon territory ended empty before halftime. The Ducks went ahead 21-3 in the fourth quarter following an interception while Stanford only answered with a field goal to trail by 15, not quite enough on the double-digit underdog spread. The Ducks had a bad snap on a field goal attempt to cost the team three points, but on two late possessions, Stanford was unable to spoil the cover despite holding Ducks to minimal production and having a nearly 2-to-1 edge on the ground.

Texas (-7) 36, Oklahoma State 30: Texas appeared to have a 21-13 edge heading into halftime, but the Longhorns muffed a punt return with 45 seconds to go ultimately handing the Cowboys a touchdown to get within one. The lead for Texas was five through three quarters, but early in the fourth the Longhorns took control with a touchdown drive and a successful two-point conversion for a 13-point edge. That should have been the final margin, but again Texas fumbled on a punt reception and with fewer than four minutes remaining Oklahoma State was handed great field position. Oklahoma State converted a 3rd-and-10 for 33 yards on a scramble from freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders and the Cowboys got the spread-stealing score with 1:37 remaining. Texas was in danger of having to give the ball back after barely recovering the on-side kick attempt and needed a Sam Ehlinger bootleg scramble to pick up the win-sealing 3rd down.

Nevada (-13½) 37, UTEP 21: Nevada and UTEP were tied 21-21 late in the third quarter before a field goal put the Wolf Pack ahead by three heading into the fourth quarter. Nevada added two fourth quarter scores to slip past the hefty road favorite number with the first score coming on a short field off an interception.

Toledo (-5½) 41, Colorado State 35: Following a missed Colorado State field goal, Toledo extended an eight-point lead to 11 points with a fourth quarter field goal with only about six minutes remaining in the game. Colorado State answered going 71 yards in fewer than two minutes and with a successful two-point conversion the Rams only trailed by three. Facing 4th-and-1 from its own 45-yard-line, Toledo broke a 35-yard-run and a penalty was tacked on to hand the Rockets 1st-and-goal. Colorado State still had a timeout as Toledo wasn’t able to drain all of the remaining time and ultimately wound up kicking a short field goal to lead by six with 31 seconds to go. On 1st down, Colorado State went 29 yards and spiked the ball to give themselves a shot, on the final play of the game Rams receiver EJ Scott was stopped at the 2-yard-line as Toledo held on.

UCLA (+18) 67, Washington State 63: Only a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown hallway through the second quarter slowed the bleeding for UCLA trailing 35-17 at halftime and then watching the Cougars score a pair of touchdowns to lead by 32 with fewer than 22 minutes remaining in the game. Headed for an 0-4 start, the Bruins didn’t fold and took advantage of a fumble to add back-to-back touchdowns to bring the margin back to 18. After holding Washington State to its first of only two punts on the night, UCLA went 94 yards on 1st down to trim the deficit to 11 points. Washington State fumbled again and Bruins scored in four plays to close to within three. After trading touchdowns, the second punt of Washington State’s night went 69 yards for a return touchdown as the Bruins had the lead. Washington State quarterback Anthony Gordon then connected for his ninth touchdown of the game to put the Cougars back in front and the Washington State defense got a stop on 4th down in the red zone with just over two minutes remaining. Incredibly on 1st down, a 14-yard gain for Washington State resulted in another fumble and UCLA used the short field to take the lead back with just over a minute remaining. A sack on 1st down led to another Cougars fumble for the sixth turnover of the day helping to propel the astonishing Bruins comeback.