2019 NFL Picks by Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Thursday Night Football - Week #10

LEAN: Los Angeles Chargers pick’em at Oakland Raiders

Wow, what a critical game this is for both teams! The loser will suffer a significant blow to its playoff hopes.

Can you feel the Chargers train picking up speed? That big win over the Packers last weekend may become their season turning point. Last year the Chargers started the season 1-2 before winning 11 of their last 13 games. In 2017, they got off to a disappointing 3-6 record before going 6-1 during the last stretch of the season. Can they do it again this year?

The largest margin of defeat by Los Angeles this year has been just 7 points! Meanwhile, the Raiders lost games by 20-, 18- and 18-point margins.

After holding out the first four games of the season, Melvin Gordon seems to be back to game speed. He had his best game of 2019 with 20 rushes for 80 yards and a couple of TDs versus the Packers.

Both teams have a solid and well-balanced attack. On the Chargers side, you’ve got Rivers, Gordon, Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and underrated tight end Hunter Henry. On the Raiders side, you’ve got Derek Carr under center with rookie sensation Josh Jacobs running the ball, along with Tyrell Williams and the surprising Darren Waller catching balls.

The big difference to me lies on the defensive side of the ball. Oakland lacks playmakers; they don’t have guys that can really put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram can. These guys pressured Aaron Rodgers all game long last Sunday, despite very few blitzes. One of the few bright spots for the Raiders on defense, Arden Key, broke his foot and will miss the remainder of the season.

Firing their offensive coordinator and replacing him with a new guy did wonders to the Chargers’ offense. They moved the ball very well against Green Bay. The players seemed to enjoy his playcalling. None of their 9 possessions ended with a three-and-out, and Los Angeles had to punt just once!

Josh Jacobs’ shoulder seems to be bothering him. He played last week, but he is still listed on the injury list. He might feel sore on such a short week.

It should be an entertaining game, but in the end I expect the Chargers to come out on top.

Enjoy the game folks!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

4 NFL Betting Tips by Stats University Professor (Week #10)

PICK: Indianapolis Colts -10 vs Miami Dolphins (rated 3 stars)

When I told a friend I was thinking about picking the Colts in my survivor pool, he replied: “What? Are you sure? Even though Brissett is hurt?” That shows me most people are afraid of betting Indy because of this injury, and also because of Miami’s good recent performances.

First, let’s address the QB situation. Brissett has a sprained MCL, the Colts might be able to get past the Dolphins with Brian Hoyer under center, but Brissett is expected to try and play. Indianapolis is pushing hard for a playoff spot and they cannot afford to lose this game.

Speaking of injuries, the betting public might underestimate the impact of the Dolphins missing two key pieces to their offense. Running back Mark Walton got suspended for four games, while the very impressive wide receiver Preston Williams is done for the year after hurting his right knee.

One could argue the Colts may look past Miami since they are expecting matchups against their three divisional rivals in the next three weeks. But I could counter this argument by saying this is a sandwich game for the Dolphins; indeed, they played the Jets last week and have a meeting with the Bills in Week #11.

I believe Miami may not play as hard, now that they’ve finally earned their first win of the season. Meanwhile, the Colts are certain to give everything they’ve got, considering how tight the playoff race is.

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +10 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 3 stars)

We have many ingredients to an inflated point spread here.

First, the Ravens received great publicity following an impressive win over the undefeated Patriots on primetime television. Secondly, the Bengals are starting a rookie at quarterback, Ryan Finley, a fourth round pick out of NC State.

Winning by 11 points or more on the road is a difficult task. The elements I just mentioned have contributed to boosting the line.

Winless teams coming off a bye week are one of my favorites betting angles in the NFL, and that applies here. Cincinnati has had plenty of time to rest and game plan for their next opponent. Giving 2 weeks to the rookie QB to work with the first stringers was a smart move.

Ryan Finley is 24 years old so he’s a more mature rookie. From the reports I’ve read, he looked bad during offseason practices, but he improved significantly during preseason games.

He is considered a game manager. He’s an accurate passer, but not explosive. But that’s okay! We want him to sustain drives to keep Lamar Jackson off the field, and running out the clock to shorten the game.

Head coach Zac Taylor declared he expects star wide receiver A.J. Green to make his debut against the Ravens. However, Green didn’t feel well enough to practice Wednesday, so he is considered questionable to play. Even if he plays, he could be rusty and be limited to a specific number of plays. But he might still draw attention for Baltimore’s defense.

The Bengals will be looking for payback after dropping a Week #6 meeting with the Ravens by a 23-to-17 score earlier this year.

I expect the crowd to fully support his team despite an 0-8 record, considering they’ll be excited to see their new QB at work and also because it’s a divisional game against a hated rival.

PICK: Dallas Cowboys -3 vs Minnesota Vikings (rated 2 stars)

These two teams have a similar record and a comparable point differential. Therefore, a spread of three points favoring the home team isn’t surprising.

However, the injury to Adam Thielen will make the Vikings more one-dimensional. The Cowboys will stack the line of scrimmage and dare Kirk Cousins to beat them. He looks good at times, and bad at others. Without one of his top targets, I expect a long night for him.

The Cowboys defense is solid. Thielen’s absence will make it easier for them to stop Dalvin Cook. The Vikings defense is also good, but facing a more well-balanced attack will create more problems for them. In case you are wondering, Amari Cooper is expected to play despite being bothered by a knee injury.

Dallas is losing one day of rest after playing the Monday Nighter against the Giants, but Minnesota will be on the road for a third time over the past four weeks.

LEAN: Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5 vs Arizona Cardinals

Bruce Arians coached the Cards for five years and he will now face his former team. Do you think he’ll be motivated to beat them? I think so!

It has been six weeks (!!!) since the Bucs last played at home, so their players should be pumped. That was one of my arguments when picking the Raiders last week, as they were in the same situation. It worked out well, so let’s give it a try once again!

The rest factor favors Arizona, though, since they played last Thursday so they benefit from three more days of rest. However, the Cards will be traveling a couple of time zones to play an early Sunday game, which will make things tougher.

Tight end O.J. Howard is “ready to roll”, according to his coach. The timing for his return couldn’t be more perfect since the Cards have allowed league-highs in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year.

Arizona has beaten three teams this season. Do you know what those teams’ combined record is? An abysmal 3-22!! Meanwhile, the Bucs have just won a couple of games, but they were significantly more impressive: at Carolina and at the Rams.

I wish you the best of luck with your NFL plays!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Week #11 Picks

PICK: Houston Texans +4 at Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

The Ravens have impressed a lot of people, including myself, with their three most recent wins: 30-16 in Seattle, 37-20 against the Patriots and an easy 49-13 victory in Cincinnati last week.

Lamar Jackson is such a different animal. No other quarterback matches his elusiveness. He is a lot of fun to watch!

However, I like the Texans to cover the spread here. DeShaun Watson is also very good and he can make plays out of nothing. Plus, he has more experience.

The Texans are a very solid team and you couldn’t tell they had lost J.J. Watt after allowing just three points to the Jaguars in their last game.

Obviously, I also like the fact that Houston is coming off its bye week. They have had plenty of time to analyze game tapes.

PICK: Carolina Panthers -5 vs Atlanta Falcons (rated 3 stars)

I tip my hat off to the Falcons for such an impressive performance in New Orleans last week. It must have been great relief for head coach Dan Quinn, who is certainly on the hot seat.

With that win out of the way, I expect a letdown for Atlanta, especially against a team that simply cannot drop this game. The Panthers are sitting at 5-4, and with such a crowded playoff race in the NFC, this is a must-win game for Carolina. They won’t let their feet off the gas.

The revenge factor comes into play since the Panthers lost both meetings to Atlanta last season. As a matter of fact, the Falcons won by a 7-point margin in Atlanta and by a 14-point margin in Carolina. That’s not gonna happen this year.

LEAN: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I’m really looking forward to seeing Nick Foles at quarterback for the Jaguars. He suffered a broken clavicle in Week #1 and had to be replaced by Gardner Minshew.

The backup QB with the mustache did very well at times, and not so good at others. After a bad performance in London against Houston, Doug Marrone decided to make the switch.

Both teams have very comparable defenses with 21 points allowed per game. Their offenses are similar too, maybe with a slight edge to Indy. But who knows what’s going to happen with Foles under center. Jacoby Brissett is expected to be back at quarterback, but his top target, T.Y. Hilton, seems like a long shot to suit up this Sunday.

I expect a very tight divisional game, in which case I’ll go with the Jags as 3-point dogs.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[Udog]

Thanks, Professor! Good luck! You've got some strong history backing you up:

B. O'Brien after a Bye Week:
5-0 (1H) ATS 4-1 (FG) ATS

• Teams are 5-30 (14.3%) straight up and 12-23 (34.3%) ATS on the road, game after an upset as a TD+ underdog since 2014. (Falcons situation today)

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL PICKS FOR WEEK #12

Written Wednesday November 20th, 2019 at 2 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

Most sportsbooks have a 3-point spread, but MyBookie.ag offers an even more enticing line on the Rams at 3.5. I hesitated between rating this play 4 or 5 stars. Considering how unbelievably hot the Ravens have been of late, I opted to go with 4 stars.

We all know how great Baltimore’s running game is. Good news for the Rams: their rush defense ranks second in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per rush and fifth in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Overall, L.A.’s defense has been pretty stingy recently. Indeed, they have allowed just 12.8 points per game over their last five games.

The most important source of concern about the Rams is their offensive line, which is in shambles after suffering many injuries. They held up fairly well last week against a solid Bears defense. The running game did okay and they did not allow a single sack.

Speaking of injuries, wide receiver Brandin Cooks is expected to return to action, while Robert Woods is questionable for personal reasons.

The Ravens will be traveling through three time zones for this game. This is also a non-conference road game and it might be hard to match last week’s level of intensity against the Texans.

Sean McVay’s squad will be at home for a third time over the past four weeks.

I am taking the Rams to either win this game, or to keep it close.

PICK #2: Dallas Cowboys +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 3 stars)

My gut feeling tells me I should make the following bold call: the Cowboys are going to pull off the upset in New England this Sunday.

Why am I only rating it three stars then? Because I am always worried when it comes to betting against the Patriots. Always.

Based on each team’s rosters, I love this play. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys can play with the Patriots. Dak Prescott has been playing at a very high level. Ezekiel Elliott has been more quiet in the last two games, but he rushed over 100 yards in the previous three.

Meanwhile, New England keeps racking up the wins, but they have showed signs of weaknesses. Tom Brady has openly said he is frustrated with the way the offense is going. Dallas has an above-average defense, I seriously doubt they will get shredded by New England’s offense.

Basically, all of the ingredients are there for a tight game and I can hardly see Dallas getting beaten up. I do feel an upset in the making.

PICK #3: Detroit Lions -3.5 at Washington Redskins (rated 3 stars)

How can I say this politely? The Redskins are bad. Very bad.

Washington’s best performances this season were a 17-16 win over the Dolphins and a 5-point loss to the Eagles. Other than that, they lost all of their remaining eight games by at least 9 points! In this case, give me the Lions laying 3.5 points for sure!!!

Sure, the Skins are at home for the third consecutive week. And this could be viewed as a sandwich game for the Lions, as they are coming off games against Chicago and Dallas, while awaiting meetings with Chicago and Minnesota.

Still, I’m taking Detroit. I expect them to win easily.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is still out for the Lions, but that’s not a problem. Backup QB Jeff Driskel has done well throwing the ball so far, and his athleticism allows him to extend plays or make good runs.

He has a good surrounding cast with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Scoring 27 points against Dallas was a good output last week. The only problem was their defense who struggled to stop Prescott and company. No one is going to confuse Prescott with Dwayne Haskins, who is simply not good.

The more I talk about this game, the more I like Detroit. Perhaps I should have rated it 4 stars? I’ll let you be the judge.

PICK #4: Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 2 stars)

The bye week gave plenty of time for Pete Carroll to come up with a sound plan against Philly. It also gave additional time for Seattle’s top target, Tyler Lockett, to heal his leg injury. He is good to go for Sunday.

Another key benefit was the extra time for newly acquired Josh Gordon to familiarize with his new offense. He picked up two big first downs in his first game with the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago against the Niners.

I am a bit worried about the Eagles being at home for the fourth week in a row, though. Also, Seattle is a West Coast team that will need to play an early Sunday game on the East Coast.

Alshon Jeffery was limited in practice Wednesday, but he should suit up for the game. However, right tackle Lane Johnson is less certain to play; that would be a big blow for Philadelphia because he’s the one who was supposed to face Clowney.

The big gamblers seem to agree with me, as the average bet size on Seattle is $249 versus just $54 on Philly!

In the end, in this key NFC matchup, I trust Russell Wilson more than Carson Wentz. Wilson is having a MVP year and he is simply hard to beat. Facing a suspect Eagles pass defense, I’ll go with the Seahawks.

PICK #5: Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)

The Bengals offense has not done well since they switched quarterbacks to see how Ryan Finley would do. They scored 13 points against the Ravens and just 10 in Oakland. Finley has completed less than 50% of his passes.

At least, Joe Mixon did a nice job trying to give his QB some support. During those past two outings, he rushed 45 times for 200 yards (a nice 4.4 yards per rush average, which is awesome considering defenses are probably focusing on him).

So why in the world should we pick Cincinnati? Well, I’m wondering if Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be any better than Cincinnati’s. They are severely banged up.

Juju Smith-Schuster is a long shot to play, while their second-best wide receiver Diontae Johnson is also unlikely to play. He took a severe hit, and we could see some blood around his ear after the play. To make matters worse, running back James Conner is questionable.

With a surrounding cast falling down, can Mason Rudolph be the savior? After watching his 4-interception performance last week, I doubt it.

Sure, Pittsburgh gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but their meeting in Cleveland left many scars. It was a very physical game.

I believe this game will be very low-scoring, in which case betting a seven-point underdog seems like the smartest move to do.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL Games on Thanksgiving (Week #13)

Written Tuesday November 26th, 2019 at 4 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Buffalo Bills +6.5 at Dallas Cowboys (rated 3 stars)

Both teams have had a similar path thus far this season, with the exception of Dallas running into more bumps. Indeed, Buffalo and Dallas have yet to beat a single winning opponent; the lone exception is the Bills getting the W against the 6-5 Tennessee Titans.

However, Dallas is going to face A LOT more pressure in this game. Owner Jerry Jones spoke at length about his dissatisfaction with the team’s performance. I’m pretty sure head coach Jason Garrett is feeling the heat. Under such circumstances, playing at home may not be ideal. If things don’t go as plan, the boo birds will be quick to show up.

The point spread is simply too big, in my opinion. It won’t be an easy game for the Cowboys. Buffalo’s defense seems to be back to its early season form.

I expect a low-scoring game that will be decided in the final minutes of the game. I don’t know which team is going to win, but I certainly like the Bills to cover the 6.5 point spread. Buffalo definitely has a shot to win this game.

PICK: Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions (rated 1 star)

The revenge factor goes in favor of the Lions since they lost their Week #10 meeting with Chicago by a 20-to-13 score. But I’m still going to go with the Bears (even though they have burned me several times in 2019).

The key thing is Jeff Driskel’s hamstring injury. Head coach Matt Patricia just said Driskel’s hamstring is pretty sore and he did not guarantee he’ll suit up this Thursday. If he cannot go, that would be a disaster for the Lions. They would need to turn to David Blough, a guy that is far from looking like a potential NFL starter.

Even if Driskel plays, a big part of his game is his mobility. Being hurt will limit his ability to escape from Khalil Mack and his friends. Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen for Detroit. Driskel has only played three games this season, and the Bears were one of those opponents. They got a chance to play him, so they already have some knowledge about the way he plays.

The Bears not only won the past three meetings with the Lions, but they also beat the spread in each of those games.

I’m taking Da Bears to win big.

Happy Thanksgiving to my American friends!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Week #13 (Sunday Games)

Written Tuesday November 28th, 2019 at 11 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)

The Chargers have had plenty of time to reflect on their last two games, both losses to divisional rivals. Their bye week allowed them to game plan appropriately against the Broncos.

L.A. won’t take Denver lightly, considering they were upset at home 20-to-13 in Week #5. They’ll be looking for payback, while the Broncos may not play as hard after a stinker in Buffalo.

At the time of writing, Denver’s starting quarterback has yet to be decided. GM John Elway said Brandon Allen and Drew Lock will split the practice reps this week. A decision is expected to be made by Friday. No matter which one plays, he’ll face a tough task against strong pass rushers like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

Saftey Derwin James has a real shot to be in the lineup for the Chargers. That would be a huge boost to their defense since James was graded as the seventh-best safety in the league by ProFootballFocus.

In my own opinion, the Chargers are a MUCH better team than their 4-7 record indicates. They have a lot more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Broncos.

Please note that the Chargers are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. Sounds good to me!

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs New York Jets (rated 2 stars)

The Jets are all happy about their recent 3-game winning streak, in which Sam Darnold has thrown 7 TD passes versus just one interception. Facing the Bengals should be easy, right?

I don’t think so. Cincinnati is looking for their first win of the season. They certainly want to give their head coach his first career NFL win. Andy Dalton will be back under center, which gives them a much better chance of winning since the Ryan Finley experiment failed.

The Bengals will be at home for the fourth week out of the past five. In other words, they did not have to travel too much recently so they should be ready to roll.

PICK: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (rated 1 star)

The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with AFC South teams. They are 7-1 ATS when facing the Titans at home over their past eight meetings in Indy. Those are pretty stunning numbers!

Indianapolis played last Thursday, so they’ll be well-rested.

Ryan Tannehill has done a nice job since taking over the QB position for Tennessee. However, look at the road/home split: he has thrown 9 TD passes versus 1 interception at home, compared to 1 TD and 3 picks on the road. Facing a tough Colts defense on the road does not bode well for him!

Sure, Marlon Mack is out for the Colts. I don’t want to imply that he is not a good player, but in my opinion most of the job is getting done through the strong play of their offensive line. Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines did very well replacing him last week, as the running game did not skip a beat in his absence.

I hope you enjoyed this write up, and best of luck with your plays!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Monday Night Football (Week #13)

Written Tuesday November 28th, 2019 at 1 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks (rated 3 stars)

After an ordinary 2-2 start, the Vikings have gone 6-1 since then. Their only loss during that seven-game stretch was a 26-23 defeat at the Chiefs, on a 44-yard field goal by Harrison Butker as time expired.

If you have been following my work for a while, you know I value the “rest” and “revenge” factors in the NFL. In this case, both point in Minnesota’s direction.

Indeed, the Vikings are coming off their bye week, which is a huge bonus prior to such a key game. Also, Mike Zimmer’s squad will be looking to avenge a 21-7 loss in Week #14 last year. Don’t be misled by the final score, though; the Seahawks were only up 6-0 with three minutes left in the game!

There’s no denying Seattle is a good team; they still hold a 9-2 record! But they haven’t been crushing their opponents, as shown by the fact that 8 of their 9 wins were by one possession (i.e. 8 points or less). As a matter of fact, they have won four games by a margin of just 1-2 point(s), and they came on top on a couple of overtime games.

Minnesota has a point differential of +84 versus +29 for Seattle. However, I’m a bit worried by Seattle having won the past five meetings with the Vikings.

Still, I expect a hard-fought game and I believe the Seahawks have much less than a 50% chance of beating the Vikings by 4 points or more.

Enjoy this great matchup!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Week #14 Picks by Stats University Professor

Written Wednesday December 4th at 11 am Eastern Time (odds/spreads may have changed)

PICK: Atlanta Falcons -3 vs Carolina Panthers (rated 3 stars)

Carolina will be looking to avenge a 29-to-3 loss in Week #11, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Falcons have owned the Panthers over the past few years. Indeed, Atlanta is 7-1 both straight up and ATS in the last eight meetings between these two squads!

Kyle Allen had decent stats in an awful home loss to the Redskins last week, but don’t be misled by the numbers. He did not play well at all. He turns the ball over too often: he has thrown 10 interceptions and lost 6 fumbles this season.

Atlanta gets three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. Also, they are going to be at home for a third straight week.

From an injury standpoint, there are several good news for the Falcons. First, star wide receiver Julio Jones is likely to suit up, as well as tight end Austin Hooper who has enjoyed a great 2019 season. On top of that, right guard Chris Lindstrom has a good chance to be back; he was hurt in the season opener and is ready to roll. That’s good news for a guy that does not move well in the pocket like Matt Ryan.

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 at Cleveland Browns (rated 2 stars)

The Browns’ chances of making the playoffs took a huge blow when they lost in Pittsburgh with their third-string quarterback last week. Ouch! Will they find enough motivation to keep grinding this weekend?

Cincinnati has had nice success over Cleveland recently. Here is the evidence: the Bengals are 8-1 ATS over the past nine meetings with the Browns, including 5-0 ATS in Cleveland! Andy Dalton seems comfortable playing in the Dawg Pound.

Speaking of Dalton, he made a successful return as starting QB last week by beating the Jets 22-to-6. It provided rookie head coach Zac Taylor his first career win. Cincinnati is expecting wide receiver John Ross to return to the lineup, which will be of great help to the “Red Rifle.”

Baker Mayfield hurt his hand last week. It won’t prevent him from playing, but it could bother him during the game. Also, left tackle Greg Robinson is uncertain to play for the Browns, although he seems to have a good shot to be on the field this Sunday.

The Bengals had to travel just once over the past five weeks.

I’m betting Cincinnati to keep it close. They could even pull off the big upset if Cleveland has already packed it in after feeling like they are out of the playoff race.

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars (rated 1 star)

A few betting angles indicate to bet the Jaguars, including the fact that the Chargers will be traveling East through three time zones and that they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks.

Still, I’ll put my money on Anthony Lynn’s team. The Chargers beat the spread in the last seven meetings with the Jags (including 4-0 ATS in Jacksonville!). Also, here’s an unbelievable stat: all 8 Chargers losses came by a seven-point margin or less!

Meanwhile, Jacksonville has lost its past four games. Each of those losses were not even close, as evidenced by the fact that the margin of defeat was between 17 and 23. Prior to this four-game losing skid, the Jaguars won a couple of games, but they came over the lowly Bengals and Jets.

Doug Marrone is not on the hot seat; he’s on the boiling seat. Many reports suggest he will be gone when the season ends, or even earlier if things continue to go as badly. I don’t think the players have any motivation left whatsoever.

Gardner Minshew will be back under center, but don’t expect miracles from him. The team looks in complete disarray.

Both Chargers safeties were back last week: Adrian Phillips and Derwin James. The team still lost in Denver, but it remains great news for Los Angeles.

Best of luck with your sports investments this weekend!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Thursday Night Football (Week #15)

PICK: Baltimore Ravens -14.5 vs New York Jets (rated 4 stars)

Want to get a chance to win $100 without any risk? Keep reading until the end.

If you have been following me a little bit, you know I rarely bet big favorites. I’ll do an exception and take the Ravens to cover that big spread on Thursday night.

One of the tricks I use when handicapping games is to ask myself the following question: if God were to tell me in advance that one of these two teams is going to beat the spread by 10 points, which team would be more likely to do so?

In this case, it comes down to the following: is it more likely that the Ravens win by 4 or 24 points? To me, the answer came quickly in my mind: Baltimore by 24. I don’t believe the Jets have any chance to win this game, unless a miracle happens (perhaps 3-4 lost fumbles by Baltimore). I don’t see them keeping it as close as a four-point margin.

I do have a few concerns about this game, though. Despite having an exceptional year, Baltimore is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite in 2019. They are also 1-8 ATS over their past nine matchups at home when facing a team with a losing record. Also, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is graded #4 out of 63 tackles by Pro Football Focus, is likely out with a concussion.

Enough with the drawbacks. Generally speaking, I like backing elite teams on “focus” games, which includes playing on national television in the Thursday night game. It guarantees they won’t play soft and let down against a weaker opponent.

Also, the Jets organization is not going in the right direction. I do not believe Adam Gase is a smart head coach who has a good control of his squad. His star running back Le’Veon Bell missed Sunday’s game because of the flu, but he was spotted bowling the day before. The team lacks a winning culture and it is poorly run from top to bottom.

Granted, the Jets have won four of their past five matches. But those wins occurred against weak opposition: the Giants, the Redskins, the Raiders and the Dolphins. Recall that New York’s last three losses were against the Bengals, the Dolphins and the Jaguars. That’s embarrassing.

The last time the Jets played a team with a winning record, they were stomped 33-0 at home against New England. That was eight weeks ago, so it’s been a while since they had a chance to face a decent team. They are not ready to face the hottest team in the league. On the road, on top of that!

There are two players from the Jets’ defense that are very good: C.J. Mosley and Jamal Adams. Now, Mosley is out for the year, while Jamal Adams is doubtful to suit up, which means he has much less than a 50% chance to be on the field.

I liked the emergence of tight end Ryan Griffin, but he was just declared out of the game too. And wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is doubtful. That limits the number of viable targets for Sam Darnold.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s hot streak has been well-documented. They are riding a 9-game winning streak that includes impressive wins in Seattle, at the Rams, and at home against the Patriots, the Texans and the 49ers. That’s a nice accomplishment!

The Ravens defense has been pretty stingy of late. They have not allowed more than 20 points in any of their past eight outings!

The big point spread is going to scare many people, but don’t be one of them. Don’t overthink this one, as the Ravens should win easily.

If the Jets win the game straight up, I'll give away $100 USD to a random person commenting my YouTube video. You've got nothing to lose, so just do it!

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL Week #15 Picks

Written December 12th, 2019 at 10 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

Sunday games

PICK: New England Patriots -9 at Cincinnati Bengals (rated 4 stars)

Let’s kick off with a few stats. The Patriots are 5-1 both against the spread (ATS) and straight up over the past six meetings with the Bengals. New England also holds a 4-0 ATS record on the road against teams with a losing record.

As for the Bengals, they are posting a bad 1-6 ATS record as home underdogs.

I know the Patriots don’t look the same. But I wouldn’t bet against a Belichick-coached team following a couple of losses. No way!

One might argue this is a sandwich game for New England after facing the Chiefs and awaiting a key meeting with the Bills. However, considering this game is very important for New England, I do not believe they will fall into a trap.

The Patriots eat bad teams for breakfast. They have played five games against teams with a 5-8 record or worse. In those games, they outscored their opponents 174-to-35!! That’s an average margin of victory of 28 points. So do you think they can win this one by at least 10 points? You bet they can!

So, overall, yes the Pats offense is struggling but Cincy’s defense allows an average of close to 400 yards per game. New England will find a way to move the ball, while their defense will complicate things for Andy Dalton and company.

PICK: Chicago Bears +4.5 at Green Bay Packers (rated 2 stars)

After starting the season with a 3-5 record, the Bears have gone 4-1 since then. Their defense has allowed a maximum of 24 points in each of their past seven contests. With their offense finally finding some rhythm, that should be enough to cover the 4.5 point spread.

Green Bay’s defense is okay, but not stout either. They rank 22nd in yards allowed per game. Mitch Trubisky finally woke up recently; he tossed 6 TD passes versus 2 picks in his previous two games. He also completed 75% of his passes during this stretch. I think the Bears will be able to move the ball at Lambeau Field this Sunday.

Chicago gets three extra days of rest after hosting the Cowboys last Thursday. They will be looking for payback after a 10-3 loss in the season opener to those same Packers.

I would pound this game more if Roquan Smith didn’t get hurt. I think he did a fine job this season at linebacker, but he landed on injured reserve a few days ago.

Divisional games tend to be more tight, and I don’t believe this one will be an exception. Take Da Bears and the points here.

PICK: Buffalo Bills +2 at Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)

I like the way the Buffalo organization is headed. They are playing smart football and their players are buying Sean McDermott’s message. They proved they were serious contenders last week by limiting Lamar Jackson and his friends, a task that seemed impossible to do based on Baltimore’s unbelievable run.

The Bills are 3-0 ATS after a straight up loss this year; they don’t get crushed after losing a game.

Both teams have a very solid defense. However, I trust Buffalo’s offense a lot more and I think Josh Allen will do enough to get the W on the road.

Devlin Hodges is 3-0 as a starter. However, if you remove points scored by the defense and special teams, he generated 17.7 points per game on average (which included a game against a weak Arizona defense). He has not faced a defense like Buffalo’s and he’s likely to struggle a lot. I am aware that James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster are likely to be back, but it won’t be enough with their third-string quarterback.

The Steelers lead the league with 33 takeaways. That’s out of the ordinary and difficult to sustain. Josh Allen has more experience trying to avoid turnovers than Hodges does. In the end, I believe Buffalo comes out on top to secure a playoff berth.

Gooooooood luck with your plays this week!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL Picks - Week #16

PICK #1: Buffalo Bills +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 4 stars)

In the first meeting between these two squads back in Week #4, the Pats won a close 16-to-10 game despite four turnovers by the Bills. Buffalo racked up 375 total yards versus 224 for New England.

If not for Josh Allen’s ill-advised passes, the Bills could have won this game. He has learned the importance of protecting the ball since then, as shown by his 15 TD passes versus just three interceptions.

New England is 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, notice that the Bills are 3-1-1 ATS over their past five matchups at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots have been a shaky team recently; their 34-to-13 win over the lowly Bengals doesn’t mean much. As for Buffalo, after a small mid-season slump, they are definitely trending up and playing smart football.

In my opinion, the point spread is inflated due to New England’s 20-year domination. They haven’t been that good recently. Their defense has been regressing a bit, although still good. Julian Edelman will likely suit up, but he’s battling a couple of injuries and he didn’t look comfortable last week (he only caught two passes).

Buffalo’s defense has allowed 16 points per game on average. Their pass defense is outstanding, and their run defense has improved a lot over the past few games.

It seems clear to me that the Patriots have much less than a 50% chance of beating the Bills by 7 points or more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo won the game outright. I’m taking the Bills to cover.

PICK #2: Houston Texans -3 at Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 3 stars)

When the regular season is nearing the end, the motivation factor is big. I find it difficult to pick a team that has nothing to play for, when facing a team that is fighting for the playoffs or for its seeding. It might even be possible that referees tend to favor the team that needs the game the most.

In this case, the Bucs have won five of their past six games, but these wins didn’t occur against power houses. They beat Detroit, Indy, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Arizona. Also, their two receivers by far, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both out. That leaves Jameis Winston with much fewer reliable targets. Speaking of Winston, he leads the league with 24 interceptions; the player in second position has 18.

At first sight, this game might be viewed as a sandwich game for the Texans since it is right between two meetings with the Titans. However, the game against Tampa is so important that there’s not way they will take it lightly. If Houston wins and the Titans lose against the Saints (a likely scenario, the Texans would be crowned AFC South champions and wouldn’t need to fight hard next week.

Only the Dolphins have allowed more points than the Bucs this season. Watson, Hopkins, Fuller and company won’t have trouble scoring this Saturday.

I am predicting a 14-point win for Houston.

PICK #3: New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Tennessee Titans (rated 3 stars)

Boy, the Saints offense has looked unstoppable the past two weeks. After scoring 46 points against the stout 49ers defense, they added 34 more Monday night against the Colts (all 34 points were scored through the first three quarters, and they didn’t try hard in the final quarter because of the large lead).

I know the Titans will be fighting for their playoff lives at home, but I wouldn’t feel good betting against the Saints offense. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill looked more shaky last week against a mediocre pass defense from Houston.

I noticed that Tennessee has faced just three winning teams this season: Buffalo, Kansas City and Houston.

If you think the Saints might struggle on grass, think again. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their four most recent games on grass.

PICK #4: Dallas Cowboys -1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 1 star)

Man, these two teams have been fairly unpredictable this season, but I’ll give it a shot.

Even though some of my betting angles are favoring Philly, I’m still going to go with the most talented team, the Cowboys.

I wouldn’t feel good betting this Eagles team that is missing so many wide receivers. After losing speedy DeSean Jackson earlier this season, they now lost Alshon Jeffery to a foot injury and Nelson Agholor seems unlikely to be on the field this Sunday.

That leaves the Eagles with unproven guys at wide receiver. Hopefully, the Cowboys’ coaching staff will be smart enough to double-cover Zach Ertz, who is basically the lone catching threat left in their roster.

On top of that, running back Jordan Howard does not look ready to be back in action either.

Quarterback Carson Wentz has been holding on to the ball too long, and he often ends up getting sacked or fumbling the ball. The situation won’t improve with so few weapons at his disposal. He has to hope left tackle Lane Johnson will be able to suit up, otherwise he’ll have Demarcus Lawrence in his face all game long.

The possibly cold weather could help Philly, though, especially when facing a dome team like Dallas. However, did you know the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games in Philadelphia? They have also beaten the spread in each of the past four meetings with the Eagles overall.

Let’s be honest: Philly won its past two games, but they struggled mightily to get victories against the lowly Giants and Redskins. Those wins were unimpressive.

I am not grading this pick higher because of the cold weather, but also coaching. I trust Doug Pederson a lot more than Jason Garrett to make smart moves during the game. Morever, both teams have been pretty inconsistent so it seems harder to get a good grasp of what’s likely to happen this Sunday.

Merry Christmas, my sports investing friends! Enjoy your time with family!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL Picks Divisional Round (2019 regular season)

Written January 9rd, 2020 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

The picks went 3-1 last week. Let's stay on the winning track!

Minnesota Vikings +7 or San Francisco 49ers -7 ?
The 49ers got a much-needed bye week, thanks to a goal-line stand in the final moments of last regular season game against the Seahawks.

The additional rest will allow San Francisco’s defense to get a boost, with the return of Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. Let’s face the reality: the Niners defense did not dominate nearly as much in the second half of the season.

In the first seven games, San Francisco’s defense allowed an average of 11 points per game. That number exploded to 26 points per game during the final nine contests. Part of this steep raise can be attributed to the strength of opposition, but we’re still talking about a huge spike!

The weakest link on the Niners defense is when it comes to stopping the run. They finished 17th in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. The bad news is Minnesota excels at running the ball. Dalvin Cook looked fast and fresh last week in New Orleans after sitting out the last two regular season games.

Both quarterbacks finished with similar passing completion rates, passing yards and TD passes. The one difference lied in the number of interceptions thrown: 13 for Garoppolo versus just 6 for Cousins.

I was impressed with Minnesota’s defensive line last week. They pressured Drew Brees all game long, and pretty much shut down the running game (except some unconventional runs by Taysom Hill, which is unlikely to happen against the Niners).

Both teams have a well-balanced attack and a stout defense. I expect a hard-fought game, where the Niners will come on top by a close margin. For this reason, I’m taking the Vikings +7 points in San Francisco.

Tennessee Titans +9.5 or Baltimore Ravens -9.5 ?

The Titans defeated the defending Super Bowl champions last week by beating the Patriots 20-to-13. The line for this game opened at 10, but dropped to 9.5 since then.

Let me tell you right away that I’m going with the Ravens laying 9.5 points.

It’s easy to get excited over the great win by Tennessee last week, and the amazing performance by running back Derrick Henry. However, don’t forget the Titans got a 9-7 record this year, compared to 14-2 for Baltimore.

Tennessee lost games against the Jaguars, the Broncos and the Panthers this season. They can be great at time, and bad at others. I’m betting it will be an off day for the Titans this weekend against a Baltimore team that is riding a 12-game winning streak.

Did you know Ryan Tannehill led the league in passer rating? Still, for some reason I don’t trust him too much. Against a stingy pass defense last week, he struggled quite a bit. He completed just 8 passes out of 15 for a total of 72 yards. That’s not reassuring. The Ravens will focus on stopping the run, and dare Tannehill to beat them. I don’t think it’s going to end well for the Titans.

These two teams met in Tennessee last season. I know the rosters were fairly different, but the Ravens won 21-0, a game in which Derrick Henry rushed for just 21 yards on seven carries.

The Ravens finished the season with more than 200 rushing yards per game on average, a feat that had never been accomplished before. Lamar Jackson showed he can throw too; over his last eight games, he threw 25 touchdown passes versus a single pick. That’s impressive!

One final telling statistic for you: the Ravens beat their opponents by at least 10 points in eight of their final 10 games. That included meetings with some very strong teams. I’m betting Baltimore -9.5 points.

Houston Texans +9.5 or Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 ?

The Chiefs seem to be peaking at the right time. After starting the season with a 6-4 record, they concluded with six straight victories. All of them occurred with a margin of at least 7 points!

Meanwhile, it seems difficult to trust this Texans’ team. They are very inconsistent, as shown by their playoff win against Buffalo last week. They started slow by trailing 16-to-0 and rallied to win in overtime. Also, their negative point differential of -7 during the regular season is a shame for a division champion!

The revenge factor goes in favor of K.C. since Houston pulled off the upset at Arrowhead back in Week #6. The Chiefs led 17-to-3 after one quarter in this game; they won’t let them off the hook this time around.

Both QBs threw for exactly 26 TD passes. However, Watson was the victim of 12 interceptions versus just 5 for Patrick Mahomes.

Another key argument is the defensive side of the ball. Houston’s defense was not very good; they finished 28th in terms of total yards allowed per game. As a comparison, the Chiefs defense finished 17th in that category, but they improved dramatically over the second half of the season. Indeed, they allowed just 11.5 points per game during their last six games.

Therefore, I’m going with the Chiefs -9.5 points.

Seattle Seahawks +4.5 or Green Bay Packers -4.5 ?

The final meeting of the weekend involves two fierce competitors at quarterback: Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Based on the point spread, it should be the closest game of the weekend.

The Seahawks have been plagued with injuries at the running back position, and also on the offensive line. However, they might get a couple of guys back: Duane Brown and Mike Iupati.

With “Beast Mode” getting accustomed to being back on the field, Seattle will try to mimic what the Lions did to the Packers a couple of weeks ago, a game in which they racked up 171 rushing yards.

I’m going to take the Seahawks and the points in this game, even though Seattle is 0-5-1 in their last six meetings at Lambeau Field.

To me, the Packers passing offense relies too much on Davante Adams. Seattle seems to have more weapons with Tyler Lockett, Jacob Hollister and the emergence of rookie D.K. Metcalf, who looked like a beast in Philly last week! On Green Bay’s side, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling and Jimmy Graham are too inconsistent.

The Packers have the better defense, though, especially with the Smiths (Preston and Za’Darius).

Still, we’re talking about evenly matched teams. I can see this game ending on the final drive with either team moving on to the NFC Championship game. Under this setting, I’m taking the underdogs: Seattle +4.5.