Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams
College Football Week 13 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 50-14
Against the Spread 31-32-1
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 43-21
Against the Spread 35-28-1
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 29-33-2
YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 617-165
Against the Spread 397-373-12
YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 499-279
Against the Spread 380-386-12
YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 374-399-15
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Florida International (+21, ML +1000) vs. Miami-Florida, 30-24
Colorado (+14, ML +450) vs. Washington, 20-14
Arizona State (+13.5, ML +425) vs. Oregon, 31-28
Nevada (+12, ML +383) at Fresno State, 35-28
The largest favorites to cover
Alabama (-58.5) vs. Western Carolina, 66-3
Auburn (-45.5) vs. Samford, 52-0
North Carolina (-38.5) vs. Mercer, 56-7
Mississippi State (-37) vs. Abilene Christian, 45-7
Kentucky (-30.5) vs. Tennessee-Martin, 50-7
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- Cincinnati grinded out a low-scoring win against visiting Temple, 15-13. It wasn't pretty, but the Bearcats were able to pick up the win and keep their hopes alive for a New Year's Day bowl game. While the Bearcats have won nine in a row straight-up, they're just 1-4 ATS across the past five. The 'under' has connected in three in a row for Cincinnati, and four of the past five. Next up is a date with Memphis. ... As far as the Tigers are concerned, they belted South Florida around by a 49-10 score at the RayJay, winning for the fifth straight weekend while going 4-1 ATS during the span. Perhaps the only surprise in this one is that the 'under' connected, snapping a 7-0 'over' run for Memphis. ... Navy outlasted SMU, 35-28. The Mustangs have dropped two of the past three, while going 0-4 ATS across the past four. The 'under' connected in this one for SMU, too, their first under result after a 9-0-1 'over' run to open the season.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- It wasn't a banner day for the ACC. Miami-Florida suffered an embarrassing loss against Florida International at Marlins Park in Miami, the site of the old Orange Bowl. It was Miami's first win in four meetings with FIU, who actually was the last winner in the old Orange Bowl against North Texas back in 2007. ... Georgia Tech picked up a 28-26 win against North Carolina State on Thursday, 28-26. The line fluctuated tremendously, but if you were holding a Wolfpack ticket +2.5, consider yourself very fortunate. The loss means Dave Doeren's bunch will be watching television during bowl season, as they suffered their seventh loss. ... Wake Forest finished off their sweep of the Tar Heel State, topping Duke, 39-27. The Demon Deacons topped UNC, Elon, N.C. State and Duke, going 4-0 SU/ATS. Overall they're 8-3 SU, but just 3-4 ATS across the past seven. This 'over' result slapped the brakes on a 4-0 'under' streak. The under is 7-2 across the past nine for Wake.
BIG TEN
-- Penn State hung with Ohio State in the 'Shoe before the Buckeyes pulled away for the win, keeping them on track for the Big Ten Championship Game, a potential playoff berth, and what they hope is a national title. After an 8-0 ATS run from Sept. 7 to Nov. 9, the Buckeyes have failed to cover in back-to-back games. ... Michigan had the offense rolling, posting a 39-14 victory at Indiana. Under bettors were pleased by how this one finished up (see below). The Wolverines have won four straight, and covered five in a row, heading into their season-ending showdown against the rival Buckeyes at The Big House next Saturday. ... Minnesota snapped back on track with a 38-22 win at Northwestern. The Golden Gophers moved to 10-1 SU, and they're 7-1 ATS across the past eight after an 0-2-1 ATS start. They'll battle Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan's Axe, and a ticket to the Big Ten title game. ... Illinois suffered a 19-10 loss at Iowa, but they picked up their fifth straight cover as a double-digit underdog. They won't be double-digit 'dogs next week at home against the Wildcats. In fact, the Illini is likely to be favored. They're 3-1 1 SU/2-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
BIG 12
-- Oklahoma hung on for a 28-24 win over TCU, but they failed to cover for the fourth consecutive game, and sixth time in the past seven outings. Next up is the Bedlam rivalry game against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys posted a 20-13 win at West Virginia, winning for the fourth straight game, going 3-0-1 ATS during the span. The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four for OSU, too. ... Baylor posted the 24-10 victory over rival Texas, hanging the Longhorns their fifth loss of the season. The Bears have covered three in a row, and the 'under' has cashed in three of the past four. For the 'Horns, they're 1-3 SU across the past four outings, while going 1-4 ATS across the past five. The 'under' has hit in three in a row for Texas, as they limp into the finale against Texas Tech.
CONFERENCE USA
-- Marshall was tripped up by Charlotte, suffering a costly loss in their pursuit of the East Division title in Conference USA. The 24-13 loss snapped a five-game winning streak by the Thundering Herd. It was the third straight 'under' for the Herd, too. ... For the 49ers, they clinched bowl eligibility for the first time since bumping up to the FBS level. The 49ers have won four straight, recovering from a 2-5 SU/ATS start to go 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS across the past four. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for Charlotte, too. ... Western Kentucky went down to Southern Miss and surprised the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg, and it's now a three-way tie atop the West. USM will have to travel to Boca Raton to battle Florida Atlantic next week. The Owls were the beneficiaries of Marshall's loss, and they have to top USM next week to host the Conference USA title game in Boca Raton on Dec. 7. They went to Texas-San Antonio and won 40-26. The Owls have scored 28 or more points in nine straight outings. The non-cover snapped a 3-0 ATS run, but they're still 5-2 ATS across the past seven. ... How about Rice? They earned their first win last week after an 0-9 start, and they won a second straight against North Texas. The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four for the Owls.
MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Kent State pushed past Ball State by a 41-38 score as a three-point underdog on Saturday. The Golden Flashes improved to 5-6 SU, and they can attain bowl eligibility at Eastern Michigan next Friday. The Flashes are 3-0 ATS in the past three, and 5-1 ATS in the past six. The 'over' is also a perfect 3-0 over the past three for KSU. ... Miami-Akron wasn't supposed to be that interesting of a game, but it was. The Redhawks already had the East Division sewn up, so perhaps they took their foot off the gas in their mid-week game against the winless Zips. The ended up holding on for the win, but the Zips posted their first cover, snapping an 0-10 ATS skid to open the season. Akron was the last FBS team to earn a cover.
MOUNTAIN WEST
-- The Nevada-Fresno State game was a fun ride. The Wolf Pack fired out to a 14-0 lead as two-touchdown underdogs, but the Bulldogs rattled off 28 unanswered points. Nevada bounced back with 21 unanswered points of their own to win 35-28, picking up their seventh win of the season. They also dealt Fresno their death blow with a seventh loss, meaning no bowl game. ... Hawaii scratched out a 14-11 win over San Diego State, punching their ticket to the Mountain West title game on Dec. 7 at Boise State. The Warriors have won a season-high three in a row, and they have covered in back-to-back games for just the second time this season. ... For the Broncos, they annihilated Utah State by a 56-21 score in Logan. Boise has won four in a row, and covered each of the past two after an 0-3 ATS skid from Oct. 19-Nov. 9. They'll get a rematch with the Warriors in the MWC title game. They won 59-37 as 13-point favorites against Hawaii on the Smurf Turf back on Oct. 12, hitting the 'over'.
PAC-12
-- Oregon-Arizona State was supposed to be just a tune-up for the Ducks, as they carried the flag for the Pac-12. The Ducks were supposed to be a playoff team, but now that's all over. They had a late flurry against Sparky, but Herm Edwards' team held on for the 31-28 win, a crushing blow to the chances for the conference. ... Utah is still alive for a playoff spot, as they hammered Arizona on Senior Night, 35-7. They will likely need help to get an invite to the CFP, however. The Utes are 7-0 SU/ATS since their lone loss of the season at USC back on Sept. 20. ... Speaking of the Trojans, they roughed up UCLA by a 52-35 count. The 'over' cashed in this one, the fifth straight 'over' result for the Trojans. They have won a season-high three in a row, going 2-0-1 ATS during the span. ... The game of the day in the conference might have been on the Palouse, as Oregon State-Washington State combined for 107 total points, with the Cougars edging the Beavers 54-53. The Cougs secured bowl eligibility, while the Beavers need to top the Ducks in the Civil War next week to go bowling.
SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Tennessee secured bowl eligibility with a road win at Missouri, 24-20. The Vols opened the season 1-4 SU, but they're now 4-0 SU across the past four, and they have covered six in a row. The 'under' is 5-1 during that six-game span, too. Mizzou can get into the bowl picture with a win at lowly Arkansas next Friday. ... It was 'bye' week for the big boys, as most SEC teams played FCS teams. Boring. ... Georgia-Texas A&M was a big boy battle, though. The Bulldogs held on for a 19-13 win over the Aggies, the first meeting of these teams in the regular season since A&M joined the conference. UGA is 5-0 SU since their stunning loss to South Carolina back on Oct. 12, but they're just 3-3 ATS across the past six. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for UGA since then, too. ... LSU roughed up Arkansas by a 56-20 score, but they failed to cover the near six-touchdown number. The Tigers are just 1-3 ATS across the past four, although that lone cover came against 'Bama. The 'over' is 3-0 for LSU in the past three, and 8-3 in their 11 games overall.
SUN BELT
-- Georgia State topped South Alabama in a low-scoring game, 28-15. The Panthers moved to 7-4 SU/6-3-2 ATS. For the Jags, they're a dismal 1-10 SU, but they are still a respectable 5-2 ATS in the past seven. The 'under' is 7-2 across the past nine outings for USA heading into the season finale. ... Louisiana-Monroe edged Coastal Carolina in a high-scoring affair in Myrtle Beach. The Warhawks moved to 5-6 SU, and they can attain bowl eligibility with a win over rival Louisiana next week. ULM will enter that game just 3-8 ATS overall, with the 'over' 3-1 in the past four. ... As far as the Ragin' Cajuns are concerned, they blasted Troy 53-3 for a fifth straight win, going 4-1 ATS during the span. Their only blemishes have come against Mississippi State and Appalachian State. They'll likely face the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt title game if they can get by ULM.
Bad Beats
-- Under bettors were feeling very good about themselves in the Miami-FIU game at Marlins Park. The total was 50.5, and there were just 26 points on the board until Miami scored a touchdown with 8:07 left, cutting FIU's lead to 23-10. Miami struck again with 3:10 to go, cutting the lead to 23-17. Still, there were just three minutes to go with an 11-point cushion. After a failed onside kick, FIU recovered and proceeded to score on a long TD run, making it 30-17 with 2:17 to go. It still should have been OK. However, Miami drove down the field and scored with :31 to go, sending the total over. Some 'cramping' issues by FIU stopped the clock and worked to help Miami, too.
-- The Michigan-Indiana total looked to be a slam-dunk 'over' play. The Wolverines posted 18 points in the third quarter to take a 39-14 lead with a total of 53 on the board. Just needed a score of any kind in the final 16:39 to go over. That score never came. It was a tough push for over bettors, and a fortunate one for those holding under tickets.
-- Under bettors (54.5) in the Oregon-Arizona State couldn't believe their misfortune. We had a total of just 28 points until 8:42 to go, when AZ State booted a field goal to go up 24-7. Still, there were 23 more points to play with. At 7:43, the Ducks quickly scored and closed it to 24-14. About two minutes later, Oregon was in the end zone again, down just 24-21. At 3:54, the biggest blow to under bettors came, as the Sun Devils hit an 81-yard touchdown to make it 31-21. Still, you were covering until Oregon punched one in with 2:04 to go.
Joe Williams
College Football Week 13 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 50-14
Against the Spread 31-32-1
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 43-21
Against the Spread 35-28-1
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 29-33-2
YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 617-165
Against the Spread 397-373-12
YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 499-279
Against the Spread 380-386-12
YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 374-399-15
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Florida International (+21, ML +1000) vs. Miami-Florida, 30-24
Colorado (+14, ML +450) vs. Washington, 20-14
Arizona State (+13.5, ML +425) vs. Oregon, 31-28
Nevada (+12, ML +383) at Fresno State, 35-28
The largest favorites to cover
Alabama (-58.5) vs. Western Carolina, 66-3
Auburn (-45.5) vs. Samford, 52-0
North Carolina (-38.5) vs. Mercer, 56-7
Mississippi State (-37) vs. Abilene Christian, 45-7
Kentucky (-30.5) vs. Tennessee-Martin, 50-7
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- Cincinnati grinded out a low-scoring win against visiting Temple, 15-13. It wasn't pretty, but the Bearcats were able to pick up the win and keep their hopes alive for a New Year's Day bowl game. While the Bearcats have won nine in a row straight-up, they're just 1-4 ATS across the past five. The 'under' has connected in three in a row for Cincinnati, and four of the past five. Next up is a date with Memphis. ... As far as the Tigers are concerned, they belted South Florida around by a 49-10 score at the RayJay, winning for the fifth straight weekend while going 4-1 ATS during the span. Perhaps the only surprise in this one is that the 'under' connected, snapping a 7-0 'over' run for Memphis. ... Navy outlasted SMU, 35-28. The Mustangs have dropped two of the past three, while going 0-4 ATS across the past four. The 'under' connected in this one for SMU, too, their first under result after a 9-0-1 'over' run to open the season.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- It wasn't a banner day for the ACC. Miami-Florida suffered an embarrassing loss against Florida International at Marlins Park in Miami, the site of the old Orange Bowl. It was Miami's first win in four meetings with FIU, who actually was the last winner in the old Orange Bowl against North Texas back in 2007. ... Georgia Tech picked up a 28-26 win against North Carolina State on Thursday, 28-26. The line fluctuated tremendously, but if you were holding a Wolfpack ticket +2.5, consider yourself very fortunate. The loss means Dave Doeren's bunch will be watching television during bowl season, as they suffered their seventh loss. ... Wake Forest finished off their sweep of the Tar Heel State, topping Duke, 39-27. The Demon Deacons topped UNC, Elon, N.C. State and Duke, going 4-0 SU/ATS. Overall they're 8-3 SU, but just 3-4 ATS across the past seven. This 'over' result slapped the brakes on a 4-0 'under' streak. The under is 7-2 across the past nine for Wake.
BIG TEN
-- Penn State hung with Ohio State in the 'Shoe before the Buckeyes pulled away for the win, keeping them on track for the Big Ten Championship Game, a potential playoff berth, and what they hope is a national title. After an 8-0 ATS run from Sept. 7 to Nov. 9, the Buckeyes have failed to cover in back-to-back games. ... Michigan had the offense rolling, posting a 39-14 victory at Indiana. Under bettors were pleased by how this one finished up (see below). The Wolverines have won four straight, and covered five in a row, heading into their season-ending showdown against the rival Buckeyes at The Big House next Saturday. ... Minnesota snapped back on track with a 38-22 win at Northwestern. The Golden Gophers moved to 10-1 SU, and they're 7-1 ATS across the past eight after an 0-2-1 ATS start. They'll battle Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan's Axe, and a ticket to the Big Ten title game. ... Illinois suffered a 19-10 loss at Iowa, but they picked up their fifth straight cover as a double-digit underdog. They won't be double-digit 'dogs next week at home against the Wildcats. In fact, the Illini is likely to be favored. They're 3-1 1 SU/2-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
BIG 12
-- Oklahoma hung on for a 28-24 win over TCU, but they failed to cover for the fourth consecutive game, and sixth time in the past seven outings. Next up is the Bedlam rivalry game against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys posted a 20-13 win at West Virginia, winning for the fourth straight game, going 3-0-1 ATS during the span. The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four for OSU, too. ... Baylor posted the 24-10 victory over rival Texas, hanging the Longhorns their fifth loss of the season. The Bears have covered three in a row, and the 'under' has cashed in three of the past four. For the 'Horns, they're 1-3 SU across the past four outings, while going 1-4 ATS across the past five. The 'under' has hit in three in a row for Texas, as they limp into the finale against Texas Tech.
CONFERENCE USA
-- Marshall was tripped up by Charlotte, suffering a costly loss in their pursuit of the East Division title in Conference USA. The 24-13 loss snapped a five-game winning streak by the Thundering Herd. It was the third straight 'under' for the Herd, too. ... For the 49ers, they clinched bowl eligibility for the first time since bumping up to the FBS level. The 49ers have won four straight, recovering from a 2-5 SU/ATS start to go 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS across the past four. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for Charlotte, too. ... Western Kentucky went down to Southern Miss and surprised the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg, and it's now a three-way tie atop the West. USM will have to travel to Boca Raton to battle Florida Atlantic next week. The Owls were the beneficiaries of Marshall's loss, and they have to top USM next week to host the Conference USA title game in Boca Raton on Dec. 7. They went to Texas-San Antonio and won 40-26. The Owls have scored 28 or more points in nine straight outings. The non-cover snapped a 3-0 ATS run, but they're still 5-2 ATS across the past seven. ... How about Rice? They earned their first win last week after an 0-9 start, and they won a second straight against North Texas. The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four for the Owls.
MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Kent State pushed past Ball State by a 41-38 score as a three-point underdog on Saturday. The Golden Flashes improved to 5-6 SU, and they can attain bowl eligibility at Eastern Michigan next Friday. The Flashes are 3-0 ATS in the past three, and 5-1 ATS in the past six. The 'over' is also a perfect 3-0 over the past three for KSU. ... Miami-Akron wasn't supposed to be that interesting of a game, but it was. The Redhawks already had the East Division sewn up, so perhaps they took their foot off the gas in their mid-week game against the winless Zips. The ended up holding on for the win, but the Zips posted their first cover, snapping an 0-10 ATS skid to open the season. Akron was the last FBS team to earn a cover.
MOUNTAIN WEST
-- The Nevada-Fresno State game was a fun ride. The Wolf Pack fired out to a 14-0 lead as two-touchdown underdogs, but the Bulldogs rattled off 28 unanswered points. Nevada bounced back with 21 unanswered points of their own to win 35-28, picking up their seventh win of the season. They also dealt Fresno their death blow with a seventh loss, meaning no bowl game. ... Hawaii scratched out a 14-11 win over San Diego State, punching their ticket to the Mountain West title game on Dec. 7 at Boise State. The Warriors have won a season-high three in a row, and they have covered in back-to-back games for just the second time this season. ... For the Broncos, they annihilated Utah State by a 56-21 score in Logan. Boise has won four in a row, and covered each of the past two after an 0-3 ATS skid from Oct. 19-Nov. 9. They'll get a rematch with the Warriors in the MWC title game. They won 59-37 as 13-point favorites against Hawaii on the Smurf Turf back on Oct. 12, hitting the 'over'.
PAC-12
-- Oregon-Arizona State was supposed to be just a tune-up for the Ducks, as they carried the flag for the Pac-12. The Ducks were supposed to be a playoff team, but now that's all over. They had a late flurry against Sparky, but Herm Edwards' team held on for the 31-28 win, a crushing blow to the chances for the conference. ... Utah is still alive for a playoff spot, as they hammered Arizona on Senior Night, 35-7. They will likely need help to get an invite to the CFP, however. The Utes are 7-0 SU/ATS since their lone loss of the season at USC back on Sept. 20. ... Speaking of the Trojans, they roughed up UCLA by a 52-35 count. The 'over' cashed in this one, the fifth straight 'over' result for the Trojans. They have won a season-high three in a row, going 2-0-1 ATS during the span. ... The game of the day in the conference might have been on the Palouse, as Oregon State-Washington State combined for 107 total points, with the Cougars edging the Beavers 54-53. The Cougs secured bowl eligibility, while the Beavers need to top the Ducks in the Civil War next week to go bowling.
SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Tennessee secured bowl eligibility with a road win at Missouri, 24-20. The Vols opened the season 1-4 SU, but they're now 4-0 SU across the past four, and they have covered six in a row. The 'under' is 5-1 during that six-game span, too. Mizzou can get into the bowl picture with a win at lowly Arkansas next Friday. ... It was 'bye' week for the big boys, as most SEC teams played FCS teams. Boring. ... Georgia-Texas A&M was a big boy battle, though. The Bulldogs held on for a 19-13 win over the Aggies, the first meeting of these teams in the regular season since A&M joined the conference. UGA is 5-0 SU since their stunning loss to South Carolina back on Oct. 12, but they're just 3-3 ATS across the past six. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for UGA since then, too. ... LSU roughed up Arkansas by a 56-20 score, but they failed to cover the near six-touchdown number. The Tigers are just 1-3 ATS across the past four, although that lone cover came against 'Bama. The 'over' is 3-0 for LSU in the past three, and 8-3 in their 11 games overall.
SUN BELT
-- Georgia State topped South Alabama in a low-scoring game, 28-15. The Panthers moved to 7-4 SU/6-3-2 ATS. For the Jags, they're a dismal 1-10 SU, but they are still a respectable 5-2 ATS in the past seven. The 'under' is 7-2 across the past nine outings for USA heading into the season finale. ... Louisiana-Monroe edged Coastal Carolina in a high-scoring affair in Myrtle Beach. The Warhawks moved to 5-6 SU, and they can attain bowl eligibility with a win over rival Louisiana next week. ULM will enter that game just 3-8 ATS overall, with the 'over' 3-1 in the past four. ... As far as the Ragin' Cajuns are concerned, they blasted Troy 53-3 for a fifth straight win, going 4-1 ATS during the span. Their only blemishes have come against Mississippi State and Appalachian State. They'll likely face the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt title game if they can get by ULM.
Bad Beats
-- Under bettors were feeling very good about themselves in the Miami-FIU game at Marlins Park. The total was 50.5, and there were just 26 points on the board until Miami scored a touchdown with 8:07 left, cutting FIU's lead to 23-10. Miami struck again with 3:10 to go, cutting the lead to 23-17. Still, there were just three minutes to go with an 11-point cushion. After a failed onside kick, FIU recovered and proceeded to score on a long TD run, making it 30-17 with 2:17 to go. It still should have been OK. However, Miami drove down the field and scored with :31 to go, sending the total over. Some 'cramping' issues by FIU stopped the clock and worked to help Miami, too.
-- The Michigan-Indiana total looked to be a slam-dunk 'over' play. The Wolverines posted 18 points in the third quarter to take a 39-14 lead with a total of 53 on the board. Just needed a score of any kind in the final 16:39 to go over. That score never came. It was a tough push for over bettors, and a fortunate one for those holding under tickets.
-- Under bettors (54.5) in the Oregon-Arizona State couldn't believe their misfortune. We had a total of just 28 points until 8:42 to go, when AZ State booted a field goal to go up 24-7. Still, there were 23 more points to play with. At 7:43, the Ducks quickly scored and closed it to 24-14. About two minutes later, Oregon was in the end zone again, down just 24-21. At 3:54, the biggest blow to under bettors came, as the Sun Devils hit an 81-yard touchdown to make it 31-21. Still, you were covering until Oregon punched one in with 2:04 to go.
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