Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Six more interesting college football games this week:

— Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky -2.5

— Mississippi State -7.5 @ Arkansas

— Army @ Air Force -14.5

— UAB @ Tennessee -11

— TCU @ Oklahoma State -3

— Oregon State @ Arizona -5

Quote of the Day
“The American public roots for underdogs, but bets on favorites.”
Michael Gaughan, owner of South Point Casino

Thursday’s quiz
Who has made the most free throws in NBA history?

Wednesday’s quiz
Dave Wannstedt was the Miami Dolphins’ coach last time they won a playoff game, in 2000.

Tuesday’s quiz
Adam Gase was the Miami Dolphins’ coach last time they made the playoffs, in 2016.

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Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Cincinnati Bengals have a bye this week; they announced they will start rookie QB Ryan Finley when they host the Ravens next week.

Sunday, Andy Dalton became the first NFL QB ever to start a season 8-0, and also 0-8. Tuesday, he got benched on his 32nd birthday.

While I’m here, a reminder that Marvin Lewis went 131-122-3 coaching the Bengals in the regular season; his 0-7 playoff record sent him packing.

Here is the problem: Cincinnati’s last .500 season without Lewis as HC was in 1996; their last playoff game without Lewis was in 1990.

Since 1991, Bengals are 55-145 in games not coached by Lewis, 131-122-3 wth Lewis.

12) Washington 6, Houston 2:
— First best-of-7 finals series in MLB, NHL or NBA where road team won all seven games.
— Washington played five elimination games this month; in his at-bats from 7th inning on in those five games, Anthony Rendon was 6-8 with three doubles, three homers and a walk.

11) Rockets 159, Wizards 158— While the Houston-Washington baseball teams were playing in the World Series, those cities’ basketball teams set defense back 30 years.

It was the highest scoring NBA game that didn’t go to overtime since a 1990 game where Golden State beat Denver 162-158.

10) James Harden tied an NBA record Monday with his 7th career game with 20+ made foul shots; he shares the record with Moses Malone, Kobe Bryant.

Harden was 21-22 from the line vs Oklahoma City, whose whole team was 17-24.

9) When teams underperform, there have to be scapegoats:
— Bronx baseball team fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild; it is obviously his fault that the Astros are better than the Bronx Bombers.
— Arizona Wildcats fired defensive coordinator Marcel Yates and linebackers coach John Rushing, after the Wildcats gave up 133 points in their last three games.

8) Weird fact: When the Giants acquired DT Leonard Williams from the Jets a few days ago it was the first time EVER the Giants/Jets made a trade. Thats over 50 years.

7) Patriots, Falcons cut their kickers Tuesday; New England signed Nick Folk, who will kick for his 4th NFL team- he also holds the record for longest field goal (55 yards) in AAF history this past winter. Falcons are on a bye, haven’t signed a new kicker yet.

6) It bothers me that FOX has to interview managers while a World Series game is going on; they’re not going to say anything interesting, so you get to see a guy squirm for a few minutes while he’s stressing out about not doing his freaking job. It makes no sense.

5) Stephen Strasburg is the first MLB pitcher ever who was the #1 pick in the amateur draft, then started a World Series game for the same team that drafted him.

4) RIP to coach Al Bianchi, who passed away this week at age 87; Bianchi was a head coach in the ABA and NBA for nine seasons- his 1970-71 Virginia Squires went 55-29. He was also the first coach of the Seattle SuperSonics.

3) With Klay Thompson sitting out most of this year, this year’s Golden State Warriors have the 3rd-youngest roster in the NBA.

2) With Joe Flacco headed to the IR, Denver Broncos have three QB’s (Allen, Rypien, Lock) none of whom has never taken an NFL snap.

1) Last Sunday was only day this year where there were NFL, NBA, NHL and major league baseball games, all on the same day.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Picks: High stakes even as top teams rest
October 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

Instead of focusing on the teams that are off this weekend in college football - and there are a lot of good teams not playing - let's enjoy the ones that are in action.

No. 6 Florida against No. 8 Georgia has become a big game again in the Southeastern Conference after a brief hiatus. For five straight seasons from 2013-17, no more than one of the participants in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party was ranked when they faced off in Jacksonville, Florida.

Now, for the second straight season, it's a top-10 matchup with the winner holding the inside track to the SEC championship game in Atlanta.

In Memphis, the 24th-ranked Tigers and No. 15 SMU are good enough to bring ESPN's ''College GameDay'' to Beale Street. It's a game with huge implications in the American Athletic Conference and the race for the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six bowls.

The Pac-12 has renewed hope of sending a team to the College Football Playoff for the first time in three seasons after a spate of upsets in recent weeks. The league's top contenders, No. 7 Oregon and No. 9 Utah, are on the road against teams that have been in and out of the rankings this season.

The Ducks head to Southern California, which beat Utah in September. The Utes are at Washington, which nearly knocked off Oregon two weeks ago.

See, you won't miss No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 5 Penn State, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 13 Minnesota, No. 18 Wisconsin, No. 19 Iowa and No. 25 San Diego State at all. The picks:

THURSDAY

West Virginia (plus 17+) at No. 12 Baylor

Major college football teams averaging more than 7.0 yards per play on offense and fewer than 5.0 allowed on defense: LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, UCF and Baylor ... BAYLOR 38-14.

Georgia Southern (plus 15) at No. 20 Appalachian State

App State is 3-2 against its former FCS Southern Conference rival since they both moved to the Sun Belt in 2014 ... APP STATE 35-17, BEST BET.

SATURDAY

Wofford (no line) at No. 4 Clemson

Tigers might as well be off, too ... CLEMSON 56-10.

No. 6 Florida (plus 6+) vs. No. 8 Georgia at Jacksonville, Florida

Gators will have their two stud pass rushers, Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga, back and healthy together for the first time in a while ... GEORGIA 24-14

No. 7 Oregon (minus 4+) at Southern California

Trojans defense is riddled with injuries, but USC has yet to lose at home ... USC 34-31, UPSET SPECIAL.

No. 9 Utah (minus 3+) at Washington

Huskies complete Pac-12 playoff doomsday scenario ... WASHINGTON 28-27.

Mississippi (plus 19) at No. 11 Auburn

Tigers QB Bo Nix has completed 46% of his passes in five games against teams with winning records and 73% against losing teams. Rebels are 3-5 ... AUBURN 38-17.

No. 14 Michigan (minus 21) at Maryland

Wolverines fixed the offense by going back to the old offense? Not exactly, but running heavy should work against the Terps ... MICHIGAN 42-17.

No. 15 SMU (plus 5+) at No. 24 Memphis

Tigers would be in great shape to reach a third straight AAC title game with a win after already beating division rivals Navy and Tulane ... MEMPHIS 38-31.

Virginia Tech (plus 17+) at No. 16 Notre Dame

Fighting Irish struggle to stop the run, but it seems like the Hokies haven't been able to run the ball well since Kevin Jones left Blacksburg in 2004 ... NOTRE DAME 35-21.

No. 17 Cincinnati (minus 23+) at East Carolina

Bearcats have won four of five since ECU joined the American ... CINCINNATI 28-13.

No. 22 Boise State (minus 17+) at San Jose State

Broncos are 12-0 against the Spartans, average score 45-17 ... BOISE STATE 45-17.

No. 22 Kansas State (minus 6) at Kansas

Wildcats have won 10 straight in the Sunflower State Showdown ... KANSAS STATE 31-23.

North Carolina State (plus 7+) at No. 23 Wake Forest

Wake has won two straight against the Wolfpack, both times throwing a wrench in otherwise good seasons. Payback? ... WAKE FOREST 31-28.

TWITTER REQUESTS

TCU (plus 3) at Oklahoma State - (at)janorman74

Big 12's second tier is tightly packed and highly competitive ... TCU 31-28.

Miami (plus 3+) at Florida State - (at)Aintropy

It's not so much about who wins between the struggling rivals but who avoids losing ... MIAMI 27-24.

Virginia (plus 2+) at North Carolina - (at)Mjg5250

Big game in the ACC, and basketball doesn't start until next week ... VIRGINIA 24-21.

Mississippi State (minus 7+) at Arkansas - (at)chriswilliams2

Not many fans happy with their second-year coach on either side ... MISSISSIPPI STATE 35-23.

BYU (plus 3+) at Utah State - (at)snoker

In a rivalry long dominated by the Cougars, the Aggies have won two straight and three of the last five ... UTAH STATE 28-23.

Nebraska (minus 3) at Purdue - (at)saunders45

The Squashed Hopes Bowl ... NEBRASKA 30-24.

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Last week: 14-5 straight; 10-8-1 against the spread.

Season: 158-45 straight; 109-87-6 against the spread.

Upset specials: 3-6 (straight up).

Best bets: 3-5-1 (against the spread).

[StarDust Bum]

Week 10 Upset Alerts
October 30, 2019
By Matt Blunt

The Ohio State Buckeyes continue to be the bane of my existence in college football this year as fading them in the spots that I have this year has been the equivalent to burning money. I still firmly believe that eventually the Buckeyes lofty numbers will catch up to them at some point, but when you've got a DE like Chase Young blowing up opposing offenses on every snap, it's hard to pinpoint when that could actually happen. Maybe that “Team Up North” will be the ones to throw a huge monkey wrench in the Buckeyes CFP playoff plans, but a lot can happen in the month of football action until then.

The other plays from last week's card managed to split the board as the concerns about California's lackluster offense proved to be real, as the Golden Bears failed to score a single point in their 35-0 loss @ Utah.

The Miami Hurricanes did show up though, as they won their game outright vs Pittsburgh, and it was nice to get the second outright winner of the year with those small dogs. Admittedly, that number of SU wins should be better in that range, but the ATS record with those small dogs is what's salvaging an otherwise forgettable year with the bigger ones.

And while Ohio State finds themselves on a bye week as to not tempt me into going back to that well that has been so generous to my bankroll, this week's plays do begin with a return to fading a particular team from a week ago. So let's get right to it:

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range
YTD: 2-7 SU; 6-2-1 ATS
Washington (+3.5) over Utah

Utah may have come away with the easy cover vs California last week, but things should be much tougher for them this week as they visit a well-rested Washington Huskies team. The Huskies are light years ahead of California on offense, and even defensively they are quite comparable. With this game also being a road contest for the Utes – who lost outright on the road @ USC the week after a shutout win vs Idaho State earlier this year – I do believe we see the Huskies come away with the outright victory.

For one, two weeks to prepare for this critical matchup helps the Huskies in numerous regards. The first is the most obvious in that they've had two weeks to scour over the film of this Utes team – and do some live scouting last week while likely watching that win over California. HC Chris Petersen has always been known to be one of the better game-planners in the collegiate game since his time leading Boise State to national prominence and extra time to prepare is always an added plus for him.

Last year in that role the ATS results weren't there in a 42-23 win over Oregon State off of rest as a -32.5 point favorite, and a 28-23 loss to Ohio State in closing at +4.5, but Bowl prep is always a bit of a different element as it is, and beating Oregon State couldn't have been that high on the focus list a year ago. What's critical to note though is the week after that Oregon State game was Washington's trip to Washington State in the annual rivalry game, and the Huskies came out as 28-15 winners after closing at +2.5. It's safe to assume some of that extra time off prior to facing the Beavers was dedicated to planning for Wazzu.

Secondly, the extra time off for Washington this year allows them to better get over the tough loss they had vs Oregon last time out, as Washington had control of that game for basically the first three quarters. Had there been a quick turnaround for Washington, it's much easier to be of the mindset that a poor performance was coming, but after letting that loss seethe for two weeks, that shouldn't be the case. The Huskies have to be itching to get back out there and do what they can to spoil a successful season for Utah so far.

This is a spot I like Washington's chances to step up and provide even more chaos in a Pac-12 conference that's known for being highly competitive and having any program win on any given day. I'm still not sure Utah is as legit of a contender as their 7-1 SU record suggests, and I'm willing to back that opinion this week.


Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
YTD: 1-8 SU; 2-7 ATS
UAB (+11.5) vs Tennessee

Would you look at that Tennessee fans. Your team has covered the number in three straight games, all as underdogs, and winning two of the three outright. You were never expected to beat Alabama, but double digit home wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina have given this team and fan base a renewed sense of confidence after being ridiculed in college football circles for the past few years. At 3-5 SU there is still a big upward climb to make, but things have to feel like they are going in the right direction, right?

Well, now amid all that recent success SU and ATS, the Volunteers stay at home feeling great about themselves and welcome in a non-conference opponent in UAB. Should be an easy win right? I mean Tennessee was always going to be favored in a game like this against a non-SEC foe, but for it to come right in the middle of their SEC schedule while they are playing well isn't ideal at all. Not to mention there is a big rivalry game vs Kentucky on deck for Tennessee too.

Recent success from Tennessee has likely forced the adjustment to make this line into the range it is, but this should be a single-digit margin of victory for the Volunteers; if they win at all. Having Kentucky on deck gives this game a potential look ahead feel, and not only that, but UAB is a quality football team at 6-1 SU and are coming off a bye week themselves. Yes, a 6-1 SU record in Conference USA doesn't carry near the same weight as it would in the SEC, but UAB does have a +99 point differential on the year and have done that by only allowing 110 total points this season. They are a program that understands how to play defense, and if you are going to be a smaller conference team looking to pull off a road upset, it's always good to have a strong defense because that tends to be the first thing that gets on the plane with you.

So look for this Tennessee program and their new found success to take a bit of a step back here in a non-conference game against an above average foe that couldn't have come at a worse time. Had Tennessee played to their closing lines the past three weeks and lost outright to Mississippi State, Alabama, and South Carolina, we would have likely seen this point spread closer to say a touchdown, as that's probably closer to the true number this game should be at.


Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 2-7 ATS
Massachusetts (+23.5) over Liberty

Admittedly I'm starting to feel like I'm getting in my own head a bit with these big underdog selections after having so much success with them last year and having next to none of it this season. There were a few more “reputable” teams I considered for this role other then a Massachusetts team that could easily win the debate as being the worst team in the entire county. Yet, I did land on Massachusetts for a couple of reasons.

(For those wondering about the 'others' this week they were Maryland +21.5 and UTEP +23)

The first of those is that if you do view teams like stocks in the market, Massachusetts stock has to be at an all time low and really has nowhere to go but up. When you lose at home by 21 to another very bad team like Connecticut as the Minutemen did last week, there isn't really any lower you can go. Throw in the fact that they've been outscored 169-56 the past three weeks and there aren't many in the betting market that are even considering looking at this game, let alone taking a piece of Massachusetts. Perception like that though does lead to potentially mispriced numbers and I do believe that's what we've got a bit of here.

That's because Liberty isn't exactly all that good of a football team either, as they are coming off a double digit loss to a very bad team (Rutgers) themselves. Liberty closed as more than a TD favorite in that game, and after trading scores with Rutgers for the first half, Liberty gave up an early 3rd quarter TD and never led the game again. And yet here they are on the road for the 2nd straight week and laying more then 20 points? I don't buy it.

Liberty is now 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this year, with the lone win coming by a TD as a -4 favorite. They aren't deserving of laying this kind of chalk against anyone, especially a Massachusetts team that was good enough to beat this same Liberty program in OT just a season ago. The 62-59 win by the Minutemen wasn't a showcase of great football by any stretch of the imagination – especially on defense – but Massachusetts was just a three win team going into that game, and as a one-win team this year you are telling me they are three TD's worse?

I just don't see it, and while Liberty should win this game relatively comfortably from an outright perspective, unless the Minutemen routinely turn the ball over and play bull-fighting defense for the entire game, getting this final score well within this point spread is how this one should play out.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Monty Andrews


NOT A GREAT MATCHUP

The West Virginia Mountaineers had an extra week to prepare for this week's encounter with the host Baylor Bears – but not even that might cure what ails them. The Mountaineers enter Thursday's matchup with one of the worst rush attacks in the nation, averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry on 213 attempts. And they'll get no relief from a Bears defense that has punished opposing backfields, limiting them to just 3.6 yards per attempt so far this season. West Virginia's pass protection will also face a major test from a Baylor defensive unit that leads the Big 12 in sacks with 25 despite having played just seven games.

You could bet on the Mountaineers having figured out its ground game, or you could acknowledge that West Virginia could find itself struggling to score against the Bears in hostile territory. Either way, we like Baylor to cover the spread here.


GO LOW, THEN GO LOWER

What happens when two run-heavy teams with stout ground defenses face off against one another? We'll find out Thursday night as Georgia Southern brings its sixth-ranked rush attack into Appalachian State for a showdown with the Mountaineers. App State ranks 14th in the country in rushing yards per game, setting the stage for what should be a whole lot of handoffs. But both teams have defended the run well this season, with the visiting Eagles having limited opponents to just 133.0 yards per game (3.46 YPC) and Appalachian State having been just as proficient defensively (118.5 YPG, 3.51 YPC in conference play).

Both teams should be able to move the ball, but not nearly as efficiently as they have for the majority of the season. The total for this game is already three points lower than its opener, and that's still not low enough. We favor the under.


TAYLOR A GAMETIME DECISION

The Memphis Tigers might have another stud running back in the fold for this week's pivotal AAC showdown with visiting SMU. Patrick Taylor Jr. suffered a leg injury in the Tigers' season opener against Ole Miss on Aug. 31 and hasn't played since – but has been practicing in a non-contact jersey this week and is a game-time decision against the Mustangs. His return would give Memphis an incredible 1-2 punch in the backfield; Taylor racked up 128 rushing yards and a score vs. the Rebels, while freshman Kenneth Gainwell has compiled 979 yards and 11 touchdowns in Taylor's absence.

Memphis is already looking at a total in the high-30s for this one, but if Taylor returns, we'll feel a whole lot better about taking the Over. Keep an eye on Taylor's status, and act accordingly.


HAMMERIN' HANK SET TO RETURN

The Boise State Broncos are hoping to have their No. 1 quarterback on the field this weekend against host San Jose State. Hank Bachmeier missed last week's 28-25 loss at BYU – the Broncos' first defeat of the season – with a lower-body injury. But the freshman was seen throwing passes to Boise State receivers in practice earlier this week, though the team hasn't updated his status. Bachmeier has been one of the top first-year quarterbacks in the country so far, throwing for more than 1,500 yards with nine touchdowns, three interceptions and a rushing score.

The Broncos' offense looked out-of-sync against the Cougars, especially through the air (185 total yards, 5.8 yards per attempt). Bachmeier's return, coupled with SJSU's dismal run defense, should make Boise State a solid option to go Over its team total.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WVU at BAY 08:00 PM
WVU +18.5
O 57.0 *****

GASO at APP 08:00 PM
APP -14.5 *****
U 42.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

No. 12 Baylor beats West Virginia 17-14 to improve to 8-0
October 31, 2019
By The Associated Press

WACO, Texas (AP) Charlie Brewer threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns and John Mayers kicked a go-ahead 36-yard field goal to help No. 12 Baylor win its 10th game in a row, 17-14 over West Virginia on Thursday night.

The Bears (8-0, 5-0 Big 12), who two seasons ago won only one game, are the league's only undefeated team - and one of eight remaining among FBS teams.

Mayers' kick with 10:19 left broke a 14-all tie and put Baylor ahead to stay after a 13-play drive that took more than 6 minutes off the clock on an often frustrating night offensively for the Bears.

West Virginia (3-5, 1-4) had eight quarterback sacks. With second-and-goal from the 1 late in the second quarter, Baylor was stuffed for no gain on three consecutive plays and had to settle for a 7-0 halftime lead.

Still, the Bears avoided what happened last Saturday, when while they had an open date the Big 12's other three ranked teams that did play lost. That included Oklahoma's loss at Kansas State that left Baylor alone atop the conference standings.

After R.J. Sneed botched a punt return that was recovered at the Baylor 34, West Virginia couldn't get a first down. Casey Legg kicked the ball through the uprights on a 43-yard field goal attempt, but the Mountaineers were penalized for delay of game and had to try again. Nose tackle Bravvion Roy blocked Legg's 48-yard attempt with 3 1/2 minutes left.

The Mountaineers had two big plays for their touchdowns. George Campbell had an 83-yard catch-and-run from Austin Kendall on the first play after a punt, and Winston Wright went 95 yards for the Mountaineers' first kickoff return for a touchdown in five years.

Wright's return was on the ensuing kick after Brewer's 21-yard TD pass to Denzel Mims, who opened the second half by fumbling at the end of a 30-yard reception on his first catch since taking a hard hit early in the game.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN 24, NO. 20 APPALACHIAN STATE 21

BOONE, N.C. (AP) - Wesley Kennedy ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns and Georgia Southern upset Appalachian State for the second straight season.

The Eagles (5-3, 3-1 Sun Belt) ran for 335 yards and held the country's ninth-highest scoring offense in check most of the night on a rainy, windy Halloween night. Georgia Southern ended Appalachian State's 13-game winning streak, handing the Mountaineers their first loss since the Eagles knocked off them out of the Top 25 more than a year ago with a 34-14 victory.

Kennedy took an option pitch from Shai Werts and raced 68 yards for a touchdown on the first possession of the second half, and Werts blew through a huge hole and raced 55 yards on the ensuing possession to give the Eagles a 24-7 lead.

Appalachian State (7-1, 4-1) came in averaging 41 points, but struggled to get any momentum going for the first three quarters other than a 92-yard touchdown drive in the final 2 minutes of the first half. Zac Thomas tried to rally App State with two fourth-quarter TD passes to Corey Sutton, but the Mountaineers' final two drives ended without any points. Thomas threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/31/2019................1-3-0.........25.00%............-11.50
10/26/2019.............41-27-2.........60.29%...........+56.50
10/25/2019................0-2-0...........0.00% ...........-11.00
10/24/2019................2-0-0........100.00% ..........+10.00
10/19/2019.............20-31-0.........39.22%............-70.50
10/18/2019................7-1-0.........87.50%...........+29.50
10/17/2019................3-1-0.........75.00%............+9.50
10/16/2019................1-1-0.........50.00%..............-0.50
10/12/2019.............27-22-0.........55.10%..........+14.00
10/11/2019................2-4-0.........33.33%............-12.00
10/10/2019................0-4-0...........0.00%............-22.00
10/09/2019................1-1-0..........50.00%.............-0.50
10/05/2019.............34-31-0..........52.30%.............-0.50
10/04/2019................2-2-0...........50.00%............-1.00
10/03/2019................1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
..

Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/31/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............0 - 2.............-11.00.............-16.50
10/26/2019.............12 - 10........+6.20..............12 - 5...........+32.50............+38.70
10/25/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
10/24/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
10/19/2019............12 - 24.........-72.00.............8 - 2..............+1.50..............-70.50
10/18/2019.............3 - 0...........+15.00.............2 - 1.............+4.50..............+19.50
10/17/2019..............1 - 1...........-0.50...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+9.50
10/16/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-0.50
10/12/2019............19 - 14.........+18.00............7 - 7..............-3.50..............+14.50
10/11/2019.............1 - 2............-6.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............0 - 2..............-11.00............-22.00
10/09/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 -0..............+5.00..............-0.50
10/05/2019............23 - 21..........-0.50..............12 - 8.............+16.00...........+15.50
10/04/2019.............1 - 1............-0.50................1 - 1..............-0.50..............-1.00
10/03/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............1 - 2..............-6.00..............-17.00


Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Monmouth College ran a poll of favorite Halloween candies:

— Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups: 36%

— Snickers: 18%

— M&M’s: 11%

— Hershey bars: 6%

— Candy corn: 6%

— Skittles: 5%

Quote of the Day
“You must do the thing which you think you cannot do.”
Eleanor Roosevelt

Friday’s quiz
Who coached the Arizona Cardinals in their one Super Bowl?

Thursday’s quiz
Karl Malone has made the most free throws in NBA history (9,787)

Wednesday’s quiz
Dave Wannstedt was the Miami Dolphins’ coach last time they won a playoff game, in 2000.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Padres signed Manny Machado, but Washington won the World Series. Here is the money Washington spent on pitching:

— Strasburg: seven years, $175M
— Scherzer: seven years, $210M
— Corbin: six years, $140M
— Sanchez: two years, $19M

Starting pitching still matters.

12) Gerrit Cole is about to break the bank in free agency; wonder what his agent’s blood pressure was Wednesday night when Cole started throwing in the bullpen, three nights after he threw 110 pitches Sunday. Don’t want the star client getting hurt.

Lets say Cole banks $35M a year for four years in his next contract (Zack Greinke makes that now); the agent’s take (3%) of all that would be $4,200,000.

11) 49ers 28, Cardinals 25— 49ers led 28-14 but Arizona kept America entertained until the end; Garoppolo was 27-36/306 and four TD’s passng, as the 49ers improved to 8-0.

10) When the Rams traded injured CB Aqib Talib to Miami this week, you figure Talib would be insulted or ticked off, but because of state income tax laws, Talib actually saves $560,000- he moved from California to Florida, where taxes are lower. Good week for him.

9) Two of my favorite NBA players to watch are both on the Clippers; Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell; they aren’t stat guys, they just work their butts off and make life uncomfortable for their opponents. Guys like that make life easier for the stat guys.

8) Baylor 17, West Virginia 14— Bears improve to 8-0, even though they’ve been favored only twice in their last five games. Baylor has three wins by 3 or fewer points.

7) NFL road teams are 71-45-2 ATS so far this season.

6) Jimmy Butler’s stats in Miami’s 106-97 win over Atlanta Thursday: 5 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 6 steals and 3 blocks. Heat was +21 with Butler on the floor, -12 with hm off the floor. You don’t have to score all the time to be a difference maker.

5) Wayne Ellington has scored 5,298 points in his 11-year NBA career; Knicks are the ninth NBA team he’s played for. His best scoring year was two years ago, when he scored 11.8 ppg for Miami.

Ellington played three years at North Carolina, scoring 14.7 ppg, was 28th player taken in the 2009 Draft. Betcha he could write a helluva book, playing on nine teams in 11 years.

4) Georgia Southern 24, Appalachian State 21— Mountaineers had gotten up to #20 in country, but then lost at home on national TV to their longtime rivals from back in their I-AA days.

3) Joel Embiid and Karl Anthony Towns both got suspended two games for their part in a small scuffle during Wednesday’s game. On NBA TV, couple of retired players were laughing, saying that back in the 90’s, when the NBA game was much more physical than it is now, the players wouldn’t even have gotten tossed out of the game.

2) Kansas City Royals named former Cardinal skipper Mike Matheny their new manager; he was 591-474 in seven years in St Louis, 21-22 in playoff games, but he missed the playoffs this last three years, which is why the Cardinals told him to take a hike.

1) Only 105 days until pitchers/catchers report for the 2020 baseball season.

[StarDust Bum]

by: Monty Andrews


NO EARLY MERCY

The Navy Midshipmen are in great position to continue their lengthy unbeaten run Friday night as they face off against the host UConn Huskies. Navy comes in armed with the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation at more than 350 yards per game, and should feast on a Huskies run defense ranked outside the top 100 this season and coming off a last-place FBS finish a season ago. And Navy hasn't exactly eased into games this season; the Midshipmen own the No. 7 first-half scoring mark in the country against fellow FBS programs, having averaged 23.7 points prior to the break.

Navy looks like a New Year's 6 Bowl candidate, while UConn looks like it's already focused on 2020. We like the Midshipmen to put this one away early, making good on the first-half cover.


NO ORANGE CRUSH

Is this the week the Syracuse Orange's beleaguered offensive line gets some relief? Bettors will be curious to see as the Orange look to shake out of their offensive doldrums Saturday against visiting Boston College. Syracuse comes into this one having allowed an NCAA-high 42 sacks through the first eight games; only eight schools allowed 40+ sacks all of last season. But the Eagles are equally inept when it comes to getting to the quarterback, having compiled just eight sacks through eight games (sixth-fewest in the country). It's a big reason why Boston College allows nearly 300 passing yards per game.

With the BC passing game in tatters and Syracuse averaging 37.7 points over its previous three home games, we like the Orange to exert its superiority on offense and convert the cover.


THAT LITTLE EXTRA

The Illinois Fighting Illini have plenty working in their favor as they bring a two-game winning streak into Saturday's meeting with visiting Rutgers. And while they failed to cover the only other time they were favored by 20+ points since 2016, they should see a few extra possessions this weekend – and that should make the cover easier. Illinois has forced an incredible 19 turnovers on the season, second-most in the country, and its plus-9 turnover margin ranks sixth overall. Rutgers, on the other hand, has turned it over a staggering 15 times in eight games with a minus-9 turnover differential.

If those trends continue this weekend, the Illini will find themselves in prime position to put six points on the board via a fumble recovery or interception – so the defensive/special teams TD is worth a look here at +200.


TROJANS IN TROUBLE

There's another game featuring a potential turnover mismatch, and this one's taking place out West as the USC Trojans host the Oregon Ducks in a pivotal Pac-12 showdown Saturday night. The Ducks have gone without a turnover in five of their previous six games while boasting an impressive +11 turnover differential for the season (tied for third-best in FBS). The Trojans have been better at the turnover game in recent weeks but are still among the worst teams in the country with a minus-6 turnover margin. USC also has just three interceptions, while the Ducks have thrown only one pick all season.

The Trojans have been a formidable home opponent this season, but with oddsmakers calling for this game to be a close one, even one extra possession can make a huge difference. We're leaning toward Oregon to cover.

[StarDust Bum]

Navy at Connecticut
Matt Blunt

Navy at Connecticut
Venue/Location: Renschler Field, Storrs, CT
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 1 (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Navy -27.5, Total 55

Visibility on the national stage is one of the greatest recruitment tools there is for any college football program, and that may be the nicest thing I can say about the excitement level for Friday's showcase game between Navy and Connecticut.

The American Conference as a whole would definitely prefer to see two of their other programs take center stage in the stand alone spot on Friday night, but they do get center stage in prime time on Saturday with Memphis hosting SMU on national television. Everyone's got to start somewhere though and for this weekend, we get this Navy/Connecticut game with the Midshipmen as nearly four-TD road favorites.

Navy will never turn down a showcase spot, but recruitment isn't a huge issue for them given their uniqueness as a program – on and off the field. At 6-1 SU, this is a great spot for them to showcase their winning ways, but I can't imagine there is too much intrinsic motivation to be at their best in a game they are expected to win big.

Conversely, Connecticut football fans probably didn't know that words like “national television”, “stand alone prime time game” and “Friday night lights” would ever be applied to their team. This Huskies team hasn't had a winning season since 2010, and with a 7-29 SU record over the past three years, and coming into this week at 2-6 SU, they've really done little to deserve this showcase spot.

Yet here they are, under the lights in a game that's got to intrinsically feel like a Bowl game for them with all the ESPN camera crews around. They'll take whatever time they can get nationally to showcase the university, and hopefully, from their standpoint at least, it isn't a complete and utter embarrassment.

So after connecting on the 'over' in the USC/Colorado game last Friday night, can we find a winner in a game like this that really isn't all that intriguing at all?

There is no argument that Navy is by far the better football team in this game and in all likelihood should come away with a relatively easy win on the scoreboard. Connecticut gives up 37.8 points per game as it is, and with that essentially being the exact same number Navy's offense has put up per game this season (37.9), Navy should spoil the party early for home fans looking to be witnesses to a shocking upset.

However, laying that kind of chalk on the road with a Navy team that's just 1-1 SU and ATS on the road this year is not something I'm interested in even entertaining as a betting option given the circumstances. The Midshipmen have a bye coming up after this game before the finish of their year gets exponentially harder - at Notre Dame, vs SMU, at Houston, and then vs Army – with those first two up on the board being ranked foes currently. Focus levels aren't likely to be 100% for Navy here in a game they know they'll win, and with the style they play that shortens games already, being expected to win by this big of a margin is a tough wager to get behind.

We also can't forget about Connecticut likely treating this prime time spot at home as their Bowl game, and coming off a 56-35 win over a much worse Massachusetts team a week ago, it's not like the confidence meter is empty for the Huskies coming into this one. They know they are a bad team overall, but bad teams cover numbers too, and getting this many points at home his highly intriguing on the surface, without the extra situational stuff that is generally positive for Connecticut as well.

The Huskies have covered the number two straight weeks, and hung tough at home two weeks ago when Houston was in town and laying a similar number. In fact, Connecticut's worst loss at home this year was by just 26 points (vs USF), with the other two coming by just single digits.

Navy is on a 1-5 ATS run on the road against a team with a losing record at home which does suggest there will be some complacency on their side in this game, and barring Connecticut shooting themselves in the foot on numerous drives, if both teams use a heavy dose of the running attack on offense, there might not be enough time or possessions for Navy to stay clear of this number.

Service academies aren't ones to generally step out of their comfort zone and try many new things in terms of the passing game, but given who's on tap for Navy down the road, it wouldn't hurt them to try a few more passes here to at least get that stuff on film and force the Notre Dame's and SMU's of the world to be prepared for it.

There is no better game to try that stuff then one you are expected to win easily, and if they were to do so here, it could play into the Huskies hands in regards to staying within this number simply because the execution may not be where it should be. Remember, Navy's got two weeks after this game to prepare for the Irish, and what they put on film in the passing game here may look a lot worse then it does down the road.

A final score of something like 38-14 in favor of Navy is where this game likely ends up, as the lack of energy from there perspective will show up on defense, compared to Connecticut's desire to not get embarrassed on this type of stage. There aren't many in the market who want to have their money riding with a team as bad as Connecticut is, but in this case it's the only way to go in my opinion.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NAVY at CONN 08:00 PM

NAVY -26.0 *****

U 53.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Midshipmen stay afloat in AAC title race with rout of UConn
November 1, 2019

EAST HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 165 yards and another score Friday night in leading the Midshipmen to a 56-10 rout of UConn.

It was the fifth straight 100-yard rushing game for the senior, who eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing for the third consecutive season.

The win keeps the Midshipmen (7-1, 5-1 American) within striking distance of undefeated No. 15 SMU in the AAC West Division.

Freshman Jack Zergiotis threw for 205 yards and a touchdown for UConn (2-7, 0-5), but had three turnovers including two first-half interceptions that led to Navy scoring drives.

Perry scored on his first carry, spinning past the line of scrimmage and going 58 yards down the numbers on the right side of the field. He also had a 58-yard touchdown pass in the first half, hitting Mychal Cooper down the middle one play after Zergiotis' second interception. It was one of just six passes thrown by Perry, who completed three of them, all for more than 30 yards.

Zergiotis' first pick set Navy up on a 49-yard Navy drive that ended with a 13-yard run up the gut by Jamale Carothers. The sophomore fullback added touchdown runs of 23 and 6 yards in the second half.

The Huskies were still in the game with a first down on Navy's 2-yard line and less than a minute to play in the first half. But Jacob Springer Jr. forced a Zergiotis fumble on third down and the Midshipmen led 28-10 at intermission.

Navy finished with 573 yards of offense, including 408 on the ground.

Kevin Mensah had 107 yards rushing for UConn.

THE TAKEAWAY

Navy: Perry becomes the second player in Navy history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in three straight seasons, joining Keenan Reynolds who accomplished the feat in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

UConn: The Huskies losing streak against American Athletic Conference opponents is now 16. UConn snapped a 22-game losing streak against all opponents from the Bowl Subdivision last week with a win over UMass.

UP NEXT

Navy: The Midshipmen are off until Nov. 16, when they visit South Bend, Indiana, for their annual game against Notre Dame.

UConn: The Huskies travel to Cincinnati a week from Saturday to face the East Division leading Bearcats.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals...............1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS...................1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack

Too-early odds to win the 2020 World Series:

4-1— Houston

9-2— LA Dodgers

6-1— Bronx

9-1— Boston

10-1— Washington

12-1— Atlanta

Quote of the Day
“Let’s just say that I thought we’d be better than this.”
Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones

Saturday’s quiz
Who is the oldest head coach in the NFL this year?

Friday’s quiz
Ken Whisenhunt coached the Arizona Cardinals in their one Super Bowl.

Thursday’s quiz
Karl Malone has made the most free throws in NBA history (9,787)

*************************

Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind……

13) Genuinely weird stat: NFL quarterbacks making their first career start this year are 8-0 ATS, 4-3-1 SU. Sunday, Denver’s Brandon Allen, Washington’s Dwayne Haskins become QB’s #9-10 to make his first career start.

12) If you’re into betting NBA games, make damn sure you know Kawhi Leonard’s status before wagering on a Clippers’ game; that may sound obvious, but sometimes life is simple.

So far this season, the Clippers are +54 with Leonard on the floor, -26 with him off the floor.

11) There are 45 NBA players this season who are making $25M+.

10) In the Super Bowl era before this year, 25 teams started a season 8-0; of those 25 teams, 14 made it to the Super Bowl, going 8-6, with ’09 Saints the last 8-0 team to win a title. The seventeen 8-0 teams that made it to a conference title game went 14-3.

49ers and Patriots are 8-0 right now. 49ers and the 2013 Chiefs are the only teams in NFL history to start 8-0 after winning four or fewer games the previous season.

9) NFL teams with most snaps played by rookies this season:
— Giants 2,907
— Jaguars 2,417
— Raiders 2,352

8) NFL teams with most salary cap dollar on IR:
— Steelers $37.6M
— Jaguars $33.3M
— Texans $31.6M

7) Last six teams to play Game 7 of a finals series at home:
2019 Astros- lost to Washington
2019 Bruins- lost to St Louis
2017 Dodgers- lost to Houston
2016 Warriors- lost Cleveland
2016 Indians- lost to Chicago Cubs
2014 Royals- Lost to San Francisco

6) Wednesday night, Golden State was down 43-14 at home to the Phoenix Suns; they were down 37 at the half in Oklahoma Sunday. Going to be a long winter for the Warriors, who did win one of their first four games, but two really ugly losses in the first ten days of the season isn’t good.

Golden State could have a dismal year, get a lottery pick, then have Klay Thompson back next season and have themselves a contending team again in 2020-21. There is precedent for this……

From 1993-96, San Antonio won 55-62-59 games, then in ’96-’97, David Robinson got hurt and the Spurs went 20-62. They drafted a kid named Tim Duncan and haven’t missed the playoffs since then, winning five NBA titles.

5) Seattle Seahawks claimed WR Josh Gordon off waivers from New England. Talented yet troubled, the talented guys always get multiple chances.

4) CBS told golf analysts Gary McCord, Peter Kostis to take a hike; the two analysts have a combined 59 years of experience at CBS. CBS signed Davis Love III to replace McCord.

3) Last time 15th-ranked SMU was ranked this high in football? 1985.

2) From Mike Clay: New Orleans Saints’ WR Michael Thomas has 73 receptions in 8 games, which puts him on pace for 146 catches, which would break Marvin Harrison’s single-season record of 143 set in 2002.

Despite all that, Thomas doesn’t have a single end zone target this season; he’s scored four TD’s anyway. .

1) If I never hear the phrase “Quid Pro Quo” again, it’ll be too damn soon, except when Mr Chow says it in The Hangover, a very funny movie. Then its OK.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Moves - Week 10
October 31, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 10 Total Moves

After three straight weeks of pushing with these total plays, stepping out with three of them last week got a defined result, just not the one I was looking for.

Indiana and Nebraska was a back-and-forth shootout that saw Indiana's streak of scoring 30+ get extended to five straight games. That game had little chance to stay low after 37 total points in the first half for one of the negative plays on the card.

The other selection that failed to get there was the 'over' in Virginia/Louisville, as they fell a FG short of pushing on 52; a total that closed even lower then that. In terms of game script, that game brought no complaints about coming up short, it was just one of those contests where the initial move down proved to be correct and you can do nothing else but move on from it.

The lone winner came from the highest profile game, as Auburn/LSU never came close to sniffing the high 50's as those SEC defenses showed up and balled out. It was arguably the second stiff test that Joe Burrow and that LSU offense has faced this year (the other being Florida) from a defensive standpoint, and Auburn made sure they weren't going to get embarrassed by watching that LSU run up and down the field against them.

It does beg the question though of whether or not more and more film on this LSU offense and Joe Burrow could end up being LSU's undoing, as the opposition has more evidence of what works and what doesn't against him, how to disguise coverages and/or confuse him, and play-calling patterns LSU may have been falling into. I'm sure those are the types of things Nick Saban and Alabama are spending this week identifying ahead of that huge showdown with LSU next Saturday.

We've still got a week of games to get through until that huge 2nd Saturday in November, and after last week's 1-2 record, it's back to just a single play from each category this week in hopes of sweeping the board.

YTD: 10-9 ATS

Week 10 Total move to disagree with:

SMU/Memphis from 70 to 71.5

This is a huge game in the American conference as SMU and Memphis are getting the full prime time treatment with College Game Day being there. SMU is a perfect 8-0 SU thanks in large part to an offense that's scored 34 or more points in all eight games, including a run of 40 or more in six straight games before having it snapped last week.

Memphis is also a program built to win with their offense as they've put up 35+ in all but one of their seven games since a sluggish season opener, and have hit the 40+ point mark in five of their eight games on the season.

You get two teams like that squaring off in prime time it's got to be an easy 'over' right?

Statistically speaking, everything does point to this 'over' being the only way to look at this total and with support of 85%+ currently here on Thursday afternoon, the betting market has voiced that same opinion so far this week. After all, when you've got two teams that have scored 34 or more points in 14 of their 16 total games this year, it's easy to surmise that this game that these two will put up that number on one another, and then all it takes is one more TD from someone to get 'over' this current total. I mean, Memphis is 6-2 O/U this year and SMU is 7-1 O/U, so how can you not like the 'over' here.

Well for one, that's always going to be the popular belief in a game like this, and while popular/public sides do win each week, I'm not so sure that will be the case here. In a game that features two teams that are so good at scoring, totals are always going to be shaded to the high side of things because oddsmakers understand that that's going to be the prevailing belief. So just from a line perspective, there is always going to be some intrinsic value in going the other way – as there would be in going 'over' the number in a game between two very good defensive teams that has a low total posted.

That means that you've got a case where there is a good chance the true number oddsmakers believe this line to be at is likely a point or two lower then it opened, knowing they'd get bulk support on the 'over' and they can adjust it even higher accordingly. Heck, by the time the full effect of the College Game Day hype machine does its work on previewing this game, we are likely to see this total climb even higher into the mid-70's by kickoff. If that's the case you may hear me complain about giving out this play on a bad number, but there really is no harm in waiting because this number won't dip any lower then the opener of 70 – which I suggested was shaded high in the first place.

Furthermore, this game isn't short on having high stakes attached to it, given that SMU is undefeated and ranked for the first time in forever, and are still battling with Memphis (and Navy) for a West division crown in the AAC. Yes, both teams have to be confident in their ability to move the ball and score a TD when needed, but I'd venture a guess that the bulk of the work in practice this week – for both sides – is on the defensive side of things to make sure they can also get that key stop when needed. Last year's game closed with a total of 74.5 and the final score of 28-18 never came close to that. Clearly both coaching staffs have an idea on how to slow down the opposition's attack, and even accounting for adjustments made on both sides in that regard, I do think we get some solid defensive play here.

This total fits into one of those situations where the 'over' looks like one of the easiest bets on the board and given that the game gets the national spotlight too, everyone wants to take the 'easy' option on a game they know they'll be able to watch. You'll hear things like “I can't stomach an 'under' play with these two teams” and statements along those lines, which will only push this total higher and higher.

Sure we could end up getting a shootout where the first to 50 wins, it's not like I've got all the answers either. But given how the entirety of this game sets up in that it's two high-powered offenses on the national stage with a tremendous amount to play for on both sides, I think the severe offensive explosion that all of these 'over' bettors expect ends up being a little bit more of a whimper relative to expectation.

It's not like we can't have a highly entertaining 37-31 game right?

Week 10 Total move to agree with:

Michigan/Maryland from 55.5 to 56

Not exactly the biggest move by any means here, but that's actually beneficial for this section of the piece where you aren't looking to bet into severely bad numbers.

But this is a spot where this Michigan team – especially on defense – isn't all there in terms of a mental/focus perspective, as they are coming off two huge games in prime time themselves. Obviously the 1-1 SU record vs Penn State and Notre Dame wanted to be better from a Michigan standpoint, but they got their win in a big game by beating the Irish last week, and now they've got to turn around and play a Maryland team that's no threat at all. Not to mention they've got a big rivalry game vs Michigan State on deck, which it never matters how good or bad the Spartans are in a particular year, that game is always going to get plenty of focus.

Michigan will likely take heed of what happened to Wisconsin in a similar spot a few weeks ago when they fell to Illinois, but I don't expect the Wolverines to be anywhere near their sharpest here as they know they can leave town with a win as long as they execute offensively. Given that Maryland has allowed 34+ points to every Big 10 foe they've played not-named Rutgers, scoring on offense shouldn't be an issue for the Wolverines here.

We will need Maryland to pull their weight enough to get this one into the high 50's though and that's where the talk about Michigan not being at their sharpest comes in. As 21-point road chalk all it takes is a few early scores by the Wolverines to take control of this game and then play soft shell or prevent defense the rest of the way. That's conducive to Maryland points as the saying “prevent defense only prevents you from winning” takes shape in that regard. Not that Maryland will likely win this game, but scoring 20 or so themselves isn't a huge ask considering they've put up 48 and 28 points in their two previous opportunities of rebounding from a performance of scoring 17 or less this year.

Finally, if this game does end up being much closer then the point spread suggests and Maryland is threatening to pull off a shocking upset, the likelihood of that being the case in a lower-scoring game is rather low. So that's working in the favor of an 'over' play as well.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Northwestern-Indiana: 45.5 to 43.5
Tulsa-Tulane: 62 to 60

Up
UNLV-Colorado State: 61.5 to 65
UTEP-North Texas: 58 to 60
Miami-Florida State: 46 to 48