Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 12:16 AM

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/26/2019.........1-1-0.....50.00%.......-0.50
09/21/2019......30-38-1....44.12%.......-59.00
09/20/2019.........5-1-0.....83.33%......+19.50
09/19/2019.........0-2-0.......0.00%.......-11.00
09/14/2019......28-24-1.....54.00%.......+8.00
09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%.......-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%........-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.........-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%.......+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%...... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%...... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%...... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%....... -3.00

Totals...........125-151-4...... 45.28%..... -205.50

*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/26/2019............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1.................-5.50..............-0.50
09/21/2019............13 - 20..........-45.00............10 - 6..............+17.00............-28.00
09/20/2019............1 - 1..............-0.50..............2 - 0...............+10.00............+9.50
09/19/2019............0 - 1..............-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.00
09/14/2019...........16 - 7.............+41.50............5 - 6................-8.00.............+33.50
09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................51 - 83...........-100.50..........41 - 42.............-26.00.............-126.50

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 12:22 AM

Big Ten Report - Week 5
September 26, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-2

Indiana 3-1 0-1 2-2 1-3

Iowa 3-0 1-0 1-2 1-2

Maryland 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1

Michigan 2-1 1-0 0-3 2-1

Michigan State 3-1 1-0 2-2 2-2

Minnesota 3-0 0-0 0-2-1 2-1

Nebraska 3-1 1-0 1-3 2-2

Northwestern 1-2 0-0 0-3 1-2

Ohio State 4-0 1-0 3-1 2-1-1

Penn State 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1

Purdue 1-2 0-0 1-2 2-1

Rutgers 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2

Wisconsin 3-0 0-0 3-0 2-1

Week 5 Big Ten Matchups

Penn State (-6.5, Total 61.5) at Maryland

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-24.5, Total 47)

Middle Tennessee at Iowa (-23, Total 52.5)

Rutgers at Michigan (-27.5, Total 49)

Indiana at Michigan State (-14, Total 44.5)

Minnesota (-1.5, Total 55) at Purdue

Ohio State (-17, Total 66.5) at Nebraska

Friday - Penn State at Maryland (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Both of these teams had last week off to get ready for their Big Ten opener. Two weeks ago Penn State (-17) played host to in-state rival Pitt in a game that went to the wire with the Nittany Lions winning 17-10. The game ended with the Panthers threatening to score on the PSU 26-yard line. Pitt outgained the Lions by 17 yards and it was actually the 2nd consecutive game that PSU has been outgained. Buffalo outgained them a week earlier despite getting beat 45-13. After scoring 124 points in their first 2 games Penn State was held to just 17 by the Panther defense. That close win, non-cover, isn’t looking all that bad for Penn State after Pittsburgh turned around last week and upset UCF ending the Knights 27-game regular season winning streak. Since beating Idaho 79-7 in their opener, PSU has been outgained by 87 yards, have 11 fewer first downs and have a 34:00 minute time of possession disadvantage their last 2 games combined, both wins. The offense has relied on big plays so far this season as they already have 9 TD’s of more than 20 yards. Speaking of big plays, QB Sean Clifford is averaging almost 18 yards per completion but needs to improve on his accuracy (58% completion rate).

To say Maryland got off to a fast start this season is an understatement. They outscored their first two opponents (Howard & Syracuse) 142-20. The oddsmakers made the Terps a road favorite two weeks ago and they were upset by Temple 20-17. After their up tempo offense averaged 636 YPG and 8.0 yards per play in their first two games, the Owls were able to limit Maryland’s offense to just 340 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. They had opportunities to put more points on the board but were stopped twice on downs at the Temple 1-yard line and also missed a short field goal attempt. One of those blown chance came with just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game and the Terps down 20-17 at the Temple 4-yard line. They chose to hand the ball off to their standout RB Anthony McFarland all 4 times and he failed to get into the endzone getting stopped on 4th down at the 1-yard line as Temple held on for the 3 point win. The Owls then turned around last week and lost @ Buffalo as a 14-point favorite. Head coach Mike Locksley was not pleased with the performance of his offensive line as the Owls held Maryland to just 3.5 YPC and QB Josh Jackson was sacked 4 times. That offensive line lost their most experienced member in the loss as starting right guard Terrance Davis was injured and will be out 4 to 6 weeks.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Penn State has won the last 3 meetings by an average score of 47-7. Last year the Nittany Lions were 12-point favorites at home vs Maryland the crushed the Terps 38-3 and outgained them by 306 yards. Historically PSU is 15-1-1 SU (8-8-1 ATS) vs Maryland with their lone loss coming in 2014.

Northwestern at Wisconsin (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcat’s offense simply can’t get any traction early in the season. They are dead last in the Big Ten in scoring (15 PPG), total offense (305 YPG), and efficiency (4.2 YPP). They lost at home to Michigan State last Saturday 31-10 and their lone TD came when the game was out of reach with just over 2:00 minutes remaining. Their lone successful offensive performance was against a bad UNLV defense (ranked 92nd nationally) where they scored 30 points and had over 400 yards of offense. In their other 2 games vs Stanford and Michigan State they’ve scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s. While MSU’s defense is very good, the fact that Northwestern was only able to score 7 points vs a Stanford defense that has since allowed 111 points in 3 games (37 PPG) is concerning. QB play continues to be a problem as starter Hunter Johnson and back up Aidan Smith combined to complete just 17 passes but threw 4 interceptions. Johnson his now completing under 50% of his attempts on the year with just 1 TD and 4 interceptions. The offense doesn’t get a reprieve this week as they face a Wisconsin defense that has allowed just 14 points in 3 games and leads the nation in total defense giving up only 171 YPG which is a full 50 yards less than the 2nd best defense in the country (Ohio State).

Can’t say we saw that coming. Wisconsin entered Saturday’s big match up with Michigan as a 3 to 3.5 point favorite and dominated the Wolverines on their way to a 35-14 win. The game wasn’t really that close as the Badgers jumped out to a 35-0 lead before Michigan was able to score a few meaningless TD’s in the 2nd half. RB Jonathan Taylor ripped through the Wolverine defense for 203 rushing yards on 23 carries (8.8 YPC). Taylor did his damage while only playing about half of the game as he sat out much of the 2nd quarter with cramps and then watch most of the 4th quarter from the sidelines with the game out of reach. QB Jack Coan was an efficient 13 of 16 through the air as the offense scored TD’s on 4 of their 6 first half possessions. The defense remains #1 in the country in both scoring defense and total defense. They gave up their first points of the year but those didn’t come until the 2nd half with the Badgers already holding a huge lead. They held Michigan to 0 for 11 on 3rd down and now for the season, Wisconsin has limited their opponents to 4 of 39 on 3rd down! They will be short handed in the secondary for the first half on Saturday as both starting safeties (Pearson & Burrell) were ejected in the 2nd half on targeting calls. That means they miss the first half of this game and they already lost starting safety Scott Nelson for the season in their previous game. This could be a letdown spot for Wisconsin after their big win, however it may not matter facing a Northwestern offense that is struggling to say the least.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Cats come into this game 0-3 ATS while the Badgers are 3-0 ATS. The underdog in Northwestern games is now 14-4 ATS dating back to last season. Wisconsin is just 10-19 ATS their last 29 meetings with Northwestern. These two Big 10 rivals have met 33 times since 1980 and Wisconsin has been the favorite in 32 of those games. Northwestern has upset the Badgers in 3 of the last 5 meetings including last year when Wisconsin was favored by 4.5 points and lost 31-17. Believe it or not, Northwestern had won 15 of their previous 16 Big Ten regular season games entering last week.

Middle Tennessee at Iowa (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The lone non-conference match this week is Middle Tennessee State heading to Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 and had last week off coming off their big 18-17 win @ arch rival Iowa State. It was a game in which the Hawkeyes trailed 14-6 late in the 3rd quarter and rallied for the 1 point win. Iowa was outgained by 105 yards in the game. While the Iowa offense has been OK (10th in the Big 10 in scoring) the defense has been very good allowing just 31 points in 3 games. On Saturday they will be facing a Middle Tennessee State defense that has given up 107 points in their 3 games this season. The Iowa defense has been very good at getting off the field on 3rd & 4th down with teams converting just 10 of their 37 opportunities (27%). The Blue Raider defense, on the other hand, has really had problems stopping teams on 3rd & 4th down allowing opponents to convert on 23 of their 48 opportunities this year (48%). Iowa has multiple injuries in their defensive backfield with 4 key members (2 starters) unable to play in their previous game vs ISU. They hope to have some of those players back for this game or next week @ Michigan. MTSU comes in with a 1-2 record beating Tennessee State with losses to Duke & Michigan by 23 and 19 points respectively. The Blue Raiders has last week off as well.

Rutgers at Michigan (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Rutgers just keeps being Rutgers. That means another loss this time at home to Boston College. The Eagles took to the road as a 7.5 point favorite and topped Rutgers 30-16. The Knights held the lead at 10-7 for about 5:00 minutes of game time and that was it. They trailed the rest of the game. They did cut the lead to 24-16 early in the 4th quarter but BC went on an 18 play TD drive on their next possession to put the game away. After opening the season with a win over UMass, Rutgers has since been outscored 60-16 in their last 2 games vs Iowa and BC. The running game has been non-existent the past 2 games with just 78 & 76 yards on the ground respectively. That puts enormous pressure on the Rutgers QB’s to play well which simply hasn’t happened very often over the last year plus as they sit with a record of 2-13 their last 15 games. However, last week they did get some solid production out of their signal caller. The starter for the first two games, McLane Carter, was out with a concussion so his back up Art Sitkowski got the start. Sitkowski is experienced as he started most of last season but had horrible numbers (49% completions, 4 TD’s, and 18 interceptions). On Saturday he played easily the best game of his career completing 21 of 31 for over 300 yards and a TD. Head coach Chris Ash has already said Sitkowski will get the start again on Saturday @ Michigan.

We’ll see what this Michigan team is made of after getting pushed all over the field last week @ Wisconsin. The Badgers won 35-14 and held advantages of +10 first downs, +188 total yards, +319 rushing yards, and +22:00 minutes in time of possession. Michigan loves to establish their ground game and it simply didn’t happen as they carried the ball just 15 times compared to 45 pass attempts. Part of that was because they quickly got behind and were staring at a 28-0 halftime deficit. The Wolverines were also banged up at RB including starting freshman Zach Charbonnet who carried the ball just twice after 41 carries in his first two games. The QB position is also now in question as starter Shea Patterson was banged around consistently and did not start the 2nd half as he was be evaluated for an injury. His back up Dylan McCaffrey came in and sustained a concussion and it looks like he will not be available on Saturday. We expect Patterson to start the game. As we’ve stated a few times in this column, new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis offense is not going well thus far. His fast paced scheme was only able to run 60 plays last week because they only had the ball for 19:00 minutes. Defensively they were pushed around up front allowing a ridiculous 359 yards rushing after allowing only one opponent to top 20o on the ground last year, which was Florida in their bowl game. Michigan has a chance to get back on track in a big way this weekend vs a bad Rutgers team. We’ll see when their emotional state is here after their disappointing start to the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Rutgers topped Michigan 26-24 in 2014 their first year in the Big 10. Since then Michigan is 4-0 (2-2 ATS) beating the Knights by an average score of 51-9. Last year the Wolverines were a massive 36.5 point favorite @ Rutgers and won 42-7 (non-cover) outgained the Knights by 200 yards. The Wolverines are just 2-12 ATS the last 14 times they’ve been a favorite of 21 or more.

Indiana at Michigan State (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Hoosiers got back on track last week after getting destroyed by Ohio State a week earlier. What better way to rebound from a 51-10 throttling at the hands of the Buckeyes than to face the hapless UConn Huskies. IU rolled up a 38-3 win last Saturday outgaining the Huskies by 285 yards. They did so without starting QB Michael Penix who sat out for the 2nd straight game with a hand injury. His replacement and last year’s starter, Peyton Ramsey, was a near perfect 23 of 27 for 247 yards and 3 TD’s. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has already said that who starts at QB will be a game time decision. One player who definitely won’t be playing on Saturday is starting LT Coy Cronk who was a 4 year starter for the Hoosiers. Cronk injured his knee last weekend and is now out for the season. That’s not an ideal development vs an MSU defense that is averaging almost 4 sacks per game (4th in the nation). Indiana comes into this game with a 3-1 record, however their 3 wins have come against teams that have a combined 2-9 record (Ball State, Eastern Illinois, & UConn).

MSU is off an impressive 31-10 win over Northwestern getting the easy cover as a 9-point favorite. As we’ve stated numerous times in this report, while their defense is one of the best in the nation, their offense is not. While they did score 31 points on Saturday, they did so while gaining just 337 total yards on only 4.8 yards per play. What Michigan State did do well was cash in when they were in the redzone. Their defense and special teams set them up to succeed last Saturday and the Spartans were a perfect 5 for 5 in the redzone with 4 TD’s and a field goal. The Wildcats did have some success on the ground vs this MSU defense putting up 139 yards rushing. While that may not seem like a big deal, it was the most rushing yards the Spartans have allowed since their game vs Michigan last October. Sparty is not going to change anytime soon. They’ll win games with their defense and their offense will never be special. Just don’t mess up and give the ball away offensively, and they’ll be tough to beat. This is a huge home game for MSU as they travel to Ohio State and to Wisconsin the following two weeks.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: MSU has absolutely dominated this series since the mid 90’s. Since 1995, the Spartans are 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS vs the Hoosiers. Sparty is 7-0 both SU & ATS the last 7 times they’ve played host to the Hoosiers. As a favorite of more than 14 points in this series, MSU is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS. Last year the Spartans won @ Indiana 35-21 as 5.5 point favorites

Minnesota at Purdue (ESPN2, Minnesota at Purdue ET)
Both of these teams had byes last week so no advantage on that end. Minnesota comes in with a shaky 3-0 record with their wins coming against South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern. They topped those 3 teams by a combined 13 points and didn’t cover any of those games. They trailed South Dakota State with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and were behind in the other two with less than 1:00 minute remaining yet they are still undefeated. In their most recent game two weeks ago the Gophers scored with 13 seconds remaining to top Georgia Southern 38-35. However they did dominate the stats outgaining the Eagles 382-198 but continued to struggle on the ground averaging just 1.9 YPC vs GSU. They are now 13th in the Big Ten averaging only 2.6 YPC on the season ahead of only Purdue (2.1 YPC), their opponent on Saturday. Cluster injuries at the RB position most likely have a lot to do with their lack of success as the Gophs were down to their 5th string tailback in the 4th quarter of their game two weeks ago. It looks like the week off helped their injury situation as 3 of their top 4 RB’s look like they will return including Rodney Smith, Mohamed Ibrahim, and Shannon Brooks, who has yet to play this season. Defensively Minnesota is allowing 29 PPG which ranks them 13th in the league. Who’s the worst scoring defense in the Big 10? Purdue who allows 30 PPG. We could be in for a high scoring game here.

Purdue steps into this game with just a 1-2 record losing to Nevada & TCU while topping Vanderbilt. Their most recent game two weeks ago they were dominated at home by TCU losing by 21 points and getting outgained by over 200 yards. We can put an asterisk by that loss as starting QB Elijah Sindelar was not able to play due to a concussion. His backup is freshman Jack Plummer who got the start and took the first snap of his career vs the Horned Frogs. It was a tough spot for Plummer making his first start for a team that relies so heavily on their QB. That’s because the Boilers run the ball less often than anyone in the Big 10 (24 carries per game) and do it less successfully than anyone on the conference (50 YPG on 2.1 YPC). Against TCU they rushed for only 25 yards on 23 carries and when you have an inexperienced freshman QB at the helm, that simply won’t get it done. As of this writing, Sindelar had not yet passed concussion protocol so his status remains up in the air for Saturday. Purdue’s defense has been underwhelming at best. They allow more points, more yards, and more yards per play than any other defense in the conference.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The home team in this series has won 8 of the last 9 outright. The host is also 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. Last year Minnesota played host to Purdue last year as 10 point dogs and dominated the Boilers. The Gophs won 41-10 and outgained Purdue 415-233. Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm said this week that last year’s game and their poor performance has been brought up to the team as motivation for this game.
Ohio State at Nebraska (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Well there was no letdown from Ohio State after their Big Ten opening win two weeks ago @ Indiana. They played host to Miami (Oh) last Saturday and came away with a 76-5 win as a 39-point favorite! OSU QB Justin Fields, a Georgia transfer, accounted for 6 TD’s (4 passing & 2 rushing) and now has 19 TD’s in the first 4 games. The Buckeyes led just 7-5 at the end of the first quarter giving the Miami (Oh) bettors at +39 some hope. That hope exited in the 2nd quarter as Ohio State tallied 42 points and led 49-5 at half. After leading by just 2 points at the end of the first quarter, OSU scored TD’s on 10 of their final 12 possessions. One thing we do know is Ohio State has come out rolling in the first half. They have outscored their opponents 135-18 this year in the first half. They have had 32 first half offensive possessions and scored TD’s on 19 of those. That’s scoring TD’s on 60% of their first half possessions, not just points, we’re talking TD’s. Impressive. The defense will be the key for the Bucks this year. That was their weak spot last season as they allowed over 400 YPG which was the most yardage they allowed per game EVER! Or at least back to 1960 which is as far as our records go back. This year they have looked very good on that side of the ball allowing just 222 YPG which is 2nd nationally only behind Big 10 rival Wisconsin.

We felt the Huskers were overrated coming into the season as there was much talk about Nebraska being the best team in the Big 10 West. Well they’ve proven us correct so far struggling to beat a bad South Alabama team at home, losing a big revenge game in OT @ Colorado, and they had a problem with a lower tier Big 10 team Illinois on the road last week. They are 3-1 with their lone easy win vs Northern Illinois included but just 1-3 ATS. Now we must admit that despite their 42-38 close win @ Illinois last Saturday, the Huskers did dominate the stats and it looked like their offense is now humming scoring 86 points in their last 2 games. Nebraska was +18 first downs in that game and had nearly 700 yards of total offense with a very balanced attack (346 yards rushing / 327 yards passing). They ran a ridiculous 98 offensive plays to just 62 for the Illini. So how did this one stay close? Turnovers. Nebraska had 4 fumbles which directly led to 21 of the Illini’s 38 points while Illinois did not turn the ball over. Is this offense now heading in the right direction? Well they’ve played 4 teams thus far ranked 73rd or lower in total defense and now they play the #2 defense in the nation. I guess we’ll find out on Saturday.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: This line opened with OSU -14 and moved to -17.5 in less than 24 hours. Last season OSU was favored by basically this same number (-17) at home vs Nebraska and held on for a 36-31 win with the total yardage in the game being almost equal. The Husker have been a home underdog of 17 points or more just ONCE EVER. That was in 2017 vs this same OSU team. The Buckeyes were favored by -24 in that game and won 56-14. Ohio State has been a road favorite of 17 or more 46 times since 1980 and they are 28-18 ATS in those games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 12:26 AM

Total Moves - Week 5
September 26, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 5 Total Moves

The oddsmakers and I have been passing that broomstick back and forth for the past three weeks, as after Week 3's plays saw me on the wrong side of the broom, last week's plays gave me the upper hand once again. That made it two of the past three weeks that I've been on the right side of these plays sweeping the board, and hopefully this week's plays don't mirror Week 3's results.

Michigan State and Northwestern got so much 'under' love all the way until kickoff that the line actually dropped as low as 35 points. So 38 was far from the best number, but thanks to both teams finding the end zone in the final frame, the two teams managed to finish with 41 points and eclipse every number.

UCF and Pitt managed to prove that that early money on the high side of the 'over' was the correct side all along, as even before Pitt scored that final TD to win in basically walk-off fashion, the two teams had combined for 62 points already. The scoring was that high despite the two teams going a combined 9-for-33 on 3rd downs.

It's on to Week 5's plays though, as just like every week in college football, there have been plenty of total moves already.

YTD: 5-3 ATS

Week 5 Total move to disagree with:

USC/Washington from 59.5 to 61
Lots of 'over' love already this week for this Pac-12 tilt, as betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com currently show about 75%+ of the action already on the high side. Given the high profile of both schools and the emphasis on winning with offensive football, the 'over' that the majority is backing here does have a case.

However, a good portion of that case for the 'over' is predicated on many believing Washington QB Jacob Eason is believed to be better then he probably is. Yes, He's put up great numbers through four games so far this season (10/2 TD/INT ratio), and was a highly sought after guy coming out of high school. He's got all the physical attributes for sure, and his dissection of BYU last week – a common opponent already between the two teams – was respectable. However, he's also 0-1 SU in Pac-12 play this year as a very good Cal defense stifled and confused him at nearly every turn. California might have the best defense in the conference, but with the athletes USC always recruits on that side of the ball, it's like the Trojans are chopped liver.

Furthermore, on the other side of the coin you've got a 3rd string QB in Matt Fink making his first collegiate road start in hostile, rival territory. That situation in itself is not that conducive to points, and with Washington not allowing more than 20 points against in any one of their four games so far, I've got a tough time seeing just where all these points are going to come from.

Even if you were to pencil in 20 points for the Trojans, that means you'd need 40+ from Washington to clear this current number. Sure, the Huskies have been able to do that in all three of their wins this year, but again, that came against lesser competition for the most part, and to assume they'll be able to do that against USC is severely disrespecting what the Trojans bring on defense. USC hasn't allowed more than 27 points through four quarters of play in any of their four games this year, and with a 2-6 O/U run going after their last eight victories, even getting to 55 points feels like a stretch.

Week 5 Total move to to agree with:

Arkansas/Texas A&M from 57.5 to 59.5
Neutral site game for these two Big 12 rivals each coming off a disappointing defeat. For Texas A&M, they failed to defend their home turf against a very good Auburn team in a 28-20 loss, as they were thoroughly dominated on the ground in that game. For the Razorbacks, they were unable to defend their home turf either, but an outright loss to San Jose State as -20 home favorites reeks of disappointment on all levels.

This is a big step up in class for Arkansas and given how they performed so poorly, and while that may bring it's challenges on offense, you give up 31 points to San Jose State, allowing 40+ to Texas A&M is definitely in the cards. After all, after facing defenses like Clemson and Auburn in two of the past three weeks, this Aggies attack may feel like they are up against a high school unit when Arkansas's defense is on the field.

It does take two teams to pull their weight though to cash an 'over' ticket, and as I touched on the other day in this piece, I do like Arkansas's chances of at least doing enough to put up 20 points themselves. After all, it's hard not for the Aggies to be a little deflated after already suffering two defeats, and with a huge game against Alabama on deck, it's also hard for them not to be peeking ahead to that game. The Razorbacks should be in full blown redemption mode after losing as huge favorites at home a week ago, and with nobody giving them a shot this week, and in a favorable situational spot at least in terms of the potential negatives for the Aggies here, 20+ points from Arkansas isn't much to ask.

Texas A&M are on a 8-2 O/U run after failing to cover a spread as it is, and with them being no strangers to putting on an offensive show for neutral site fans – the Aggies are on a 5-1 O/U run in their last six on a neutral field – something like 45-24 could easily be where this game ends up.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Buffalo-Miami (Ohio).: 49.5 to 47
Minnesota-Purdue: 56.5 to 53.5
Northern Illinois-Vanderbilt: 54.5 to 51.5
UTEP-Southern Miss: 52.5 to 49.5

Up
Fresno State-New Mexico State: 60 to 63
Kentucky-South Carolina: 50.5 to 53

(Odds Subject to Change)

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 12:28 AM

'GameDay' visit bolsters Nebraska
September 26, 2019
By The Associated Press

LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) With nary a conference championship since 1999, and now on its fifth coach since Tom Osborne's teams ruled the mid-1990s, Nebraska has been an afterthought in college football most of the last two decades.

This week, the Cornhuskers (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) are front and center again. Their game against No. 5 Ohio State (4-0, 1-0) on Saturday night was always going to be a big one. Add a visit from ESPN's ''College GameDay'' show in the morning, and it's become huge.

''This is a good opportunity to highlight our program, the direction the program is going, the improvement we have made, the path that we are on,'' second-year coach Scott Frost said. ''It's going to be great to get national attention here in Lincoln.''

Yes, if Rece Davis, Desmond Howard, Kirk Herbstreit and Lee Corso show up on campus, chances are your team is playing in the top game of the week.

The party starts early.

Crowds congregate behind and around the set from 9 a.m. to noon EDT holding signs with messages supporting their team, taking a shot at the opponent or maybe asking people at home to send money for beer. The folks cheer or boo depending on what they hear - or which mascot head Corso puts on when he predicts the winner of the host school's game. A favorite segment features a ''guest picker,'' typically a celebrity with ties to the school or area who joins the panel in predicting winners of the day's key games.

The atmosphere, to say the least, is raucous. And, for that week's host, it's akin to a three-hour advertisement aimed at prospective recruits.

Saturday marks the 317th time GameDay has originated from a campus. It's the seventh visit to Nebraska, but the first since 2007.

''This is Nebraska. This is big-time college football,'' quarterback Adrian Martinez said. ''I'm excited that College GameDay's back here this Saturday, and that's the way it should be again.''

Ohio State has hosted the show 18 times, most of any school. Alabama is next, at 13, followed by Michigan, Florida and LSU, at 12 each.

Ohio State this week will tie Alabama with 45 appearances in the featured game.

The GameDay crew, including people in front of and behind the cameras, decides mostly by committee where they will go each week, coordinating producer Drew Gallagher said.

Lincoln was selected around midnight last Saturday, shortly after the Cornhuskers came from behind to win at Illinois. Had Nebraska lost, GameDay might have gone elsewhere, though the fact Ohio State is coming to town weighed in Lincoln's favor.

''With Ohio State right now, there's a little bit of curiosity, especially with Justin Fields,'' Gallagher said. ''He hasn't really been tested in a road environment like this. This has also been the kind of game over the several years that Ohio State has struggled in. Factor it all in - the scene, Lincoln on a Saturday night - and it was a pretty easy decision.''

ESPN during the offseason maps out possible GameDay sites for the first month of the season. Schools receive letters outlining how much space would be needed, along with other requirements. Gallagher said he's never heard of a school not wanting GameDay to come.

Fan bases often lobby for a visit through social media campaigns, and schools themselves sometimes ask. Nebraska was notified last week it was a candidate. Gallagher said a person from the athletic department, whom he declined to name, then initiated contact to sell the network on why Nebraska would be the best choice.

GameDay's visit comes the morning after new basketball coach Fred Hoiberg holds a public scrimmage followed by a performance by rapper Rick Ross. Some of the football and basketball programs' top recruiting prospects will be visiting.

ESPN no longer estimates on-site GameDay attendance. A number is hard to lock down because it's not a ticketed event and people come and go. The highest reported attendance was 18,000 at Missouri in 2010, hours before the Tigers upset third-ranked Oklahoma.

Average viewership across ESPN's platforms is just under 2 million through four shows this year.

According to Omaha-based Universal Information Services, which measures the impact of media mentions, the GameDay appearance at Georgia last week generated an estimated $1.3 million in publicity value through local and national broadcast mentions (the figure didn't account for the three-hour show itself). Publicity value is the estimated cost of promotion, based on advertising rates across TV and radio platforms, that would produce an equal amount of exposure.

The buzz here has been high. Two days after the Lincoln visit was announced, the publicity value already had matched the $1.3 million produced in a full week for the Georgia stop.

''A lot of this stuff is for the fans. People eat it up,'' Frost said.

That's true, and something not to be minimized. The fan base that started selling out games in 1962, and continues to do so despite the program's recent struggles, has become one of the Huskers' biggest talking points in the absence of significant wins or championships. A scene where thousands of people in red gather around the GameDay set sends a message to prospects.

GameDay's visit also shows Frost's work has not gone unnoticed.

''If we weren't improving and getting better and going in a really good direction that was obvious to a lot of people,'' he said, ''we wouldn't have those guys on ESPN coming to town.''

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 02:28 AM

Friday’s 6-pack

Odds to score the first TD in Saturday’s college games (Rampart Casino):

4-1— Oklahoma

5-1— Michigan

9-1— Wisconsin

10-1— Western Michigan, Texas A&M, Iowa

12-1— TCU

14-1— Texas Tech

Quote of the Day
“I’m here [with the Cubs]. We have a lot we need to work on to get back to the level we’re accustomed to. I’m invested in that. That’s what I’m focused on.”
Cubs’ GM Theo Epstein, dismissing rumors that he will return to the Red Sox

Friday’s quiz
When Barack Obama was re-elected president in 2012, who did he beat in the election?

Thursday’s quiz
Julius Erving and George Gervin both played for the Virginia Squires in the ABA.

Wednesday’s quiz
Mark Wahlberg starred in a 2006 movie called Invincible, about a 30-year old bartender who made the ’76 Philadelphia Eagles as a special teams player; Dick Vermeil coached the ’76 Eagles.

***************************

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with the weekend here……

13) Eagles 34, Packers 27:
— Green Bay had ball inside Philly’s 20-yard line on 7 of their 10 drives, but scored zero points on their last two drives in the red zone.
— Aaron Rodgers threw for 422 yards but was also Green Bay’s leader rusher (46 yards); no one else had more than 21.
— Davante Adams caught 10 balls for 180 yards but hurt his foot, didn’t play late in the game.

— Fun game to watch; was 21-20 at the half.
— Packers outgained Philly 491-336, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Eagles ran 60 plays; only nine were on 3rd down- they didn’t turn ball over.

12) A’s 3, Mariners 1:
Oakland clinches at least a tie for one Wild Card spot; they can clinch for real tonight.

This was also Felix Hernandez’s last start in Seattle, after 14 years with the Mariners; they had a huge crowd for this game to honor one of the most popular Mariners ever.

Felix is a Seattle icon who played his whole career for the Mariners, instead of skipping town for more money elsewhere, and that is rare these days.

11) Veteran utility guy Asdrubel Cabrera has 37 RBI in 36 games with Washington; he’s been a big help in their run to the playoffs.

10) I was a big Addams Family fan as a kid; Cousin Itt and Thing were my two favorite characters. Now in the new Addams Family movie, I see that Snoop Dawg is voicing the Cousin Itt character, but in their promos on Twitter, they were calling him Cousin It (one t). Not really sure why, but Cousin Itt was an oddly funny character and I hope this movie is good.

9) Twins 10, Tigers 4— Detroit finishes its home season with a 22-59 record, beating out the ’62 New York Mets for the most home losses in a season. When you’re more inept than the ’62 Mets, you have serious problems.

Then again, the ’69 Mets won the World Series only seven years after that disaster; the ’62 Mets were an expansion team, so they had a valid excuse.

8) Sometimes life makes no sense:
Red Sox won the World Series LY but fired GM Dave Dombrowski this year.

Detroit is 46-112 this year, but gave GM Al Avila a contract extension. Go figure.

7) 2019 Phillies have lost seven of their last nine games, missing the playoffs.

2018 Phillies lost nine of their last 11 games, missing out on the playoffs.

How do the Phillies justify bringing manager Gabe Kapler back in 2020?

6) Tony Romo shot 2-under par Thursday and is T28 at the Safeway Open in Napa, CA; thats really impressive. If Romo makes the cut Friday, Boomer Esaiason takes his place on the Bears-Vikings telecast Sunday in Minneapolis.

5) Memo to TV announcers: Week 4 games aren’t “must-win” unless a team is 0-3; even then, the Chargers made the Super Bowl once after starting a season 0-4. Must-win means the season is over if you lose. Seasons can’t end in September, though they can be badly damaged.

4) Sunday is the last day of baseball’s regular season; all the games that day start at 3:00ET, to maximize drama in case a playoff spot comes down to the last day. Good idea.

3) One thing for damn sure: I won’t be wagering on any home run over/under totals next year, because there is no way of knowing what next year’s baseballs will be like.

After the barrage of home runs this year, it sounds like MLB is going to look at how the baseballs are made. This year’s baseballs are like freakin’ Superballs, but with lot of negative press about the lack of balls in play, changes could be made, and it is doubtful they’ll be publicized.

2) Congrats to the great announcer Marty Brennaman, who called his last Cincinnati Reds game on the radio Thursday afternoon. Brennaman’s first game with the Reds was in 1974, when Hank Aaron hit his 714th home run in Cincinnati, for the Braves. What a great run he’s had.

1) I didn’t know that before being hired by the Cincinnati Reds in 1974, Brennaman was the voice of the ABA’s Virginia Squires, an interesting team that had Julius Erving and George Gervin on the roster at the same time.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 02:36 AM

Friday, September 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DUKE (2 - 1) at VIRGINIA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN ST (3 - 0) at MARYLAND (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE ST (2 - 1) at AIR FORCE (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA ST (3 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (4 - 0) - 9/27/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, September 27

Duke @ Virginia Tech
Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games when playing Duke

Penn State @ Maryland
Penn State
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Maryland
Maryland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games at home

San Jose State @ Air Force
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Jose State's last 8 games on the road
Air Force
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Arizona State @ California
Arizona State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games when playing California
California
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of California's last 7 games at home
California is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona State

---------------------------------------------

Friday’s games

Underdogs covered eight of last 11 Duke-Virginia Tech games; Blue Devils won two of last three visits to Blacksburg, with the two wins by total of five points, but those are Duke’s only wins in last 15 series games. Blue Devils covered five of their last six games as a road underdog; they split pair of I-A games, losing 41-3 to Alabama, winning 41-18 at MTSU. Virginia Tech lost its opener 35-28 at BC, then beat a couple of stiffs, sneaking past a I-AA team 24-17; under Fuente, Hokies are 9-6 ATS when laying points at home.

First road game for Penn State squad that hung on to beat Pitt 17-10 LW, giving up 372 passing yards- they allowed total of 23 points in pair of I-A wins. Last three years, Nittany Lions are 7-4 ATS as a road favorite- they’re 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a Big 14 single digit fave. Maryland crushed Syracuse, but then got upset at Temple; Terrapins are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog- they allowed 607 PY in their two I-A games this year. Since 2011, Maryland is 7-12 ATS as a conference home dog.

San Jose State (+20.5) stunned Arkansas 31-24 LW, throwing for 402 yards; Spartans lost 34-16 at home to Tulsa the week before- they allowed total of 1,026 yards in two I-A games. San Jose is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Air Force lost 30-19 at Boise LW, after upsetting Colorado the week before; Falcons are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-6 ATS in last eight Mountain West games. Air Force ran ball for 531 yards in their two I-A games, but they also threw double digit passes in both games.

Under Herm Edwards, Arizona State covered six of eight games as an underdog; ASU split its last two games, both decided by a FG- they’ve run ball for average of only 92.7 yards/game, and they play a true freshman QB. Sun Devils lost five of last seven games with California, losing six of last seven visits to Berkeley (2-5 ATS). 4-0 Golden Bears are Pac-12’s only unbeaten team, with wins at Washington, Ole Miss; all three of their I-A games were decided by 8 or fewer points- under Wilcox, Cal is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.

-------------------------------------------------

Friday, September 27

Duke @ Virginia Tech

Game 105-106
September 27, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Duke
84.438
Virginia Tech
89.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(-2 1/2); Under

Penn State @ Maryland

Game 107-108
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
103.410
Maryland
99.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 3 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 7
60
Dunkel Pick:
Maryland
(+7); Over

San Jose St @ Air Force

Game 109-110
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
72.915
Air Force
86.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Air Force
by 13
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 19
56
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose St
(+19); Under

Arizona State @ California

Game 111-112
September 27, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
88.196
California
89.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 5
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona State
(+5); Over

-------------------------------------

Friday, Sept. 27

Matchup Skinny
Edge

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Hokies have covered last 2 and won last 3 SU in series. Though Fuente 0-3 vs. line TY and 7-14 last 21 on board. If Cutcliffe a dog note 24-12-1 mark in role since 2013.
Duke, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at MARYLAND...Locksley 2-0 vs. line at home this season, now 7-2 vs. spread last nine as host. But James Franklin has been merciless with three big wins and covers in a row vs. Terps, the last two by combined 104-6 scoreline! Franklin 7-4 as visiting chalk since 2016.
Penn State, based on series trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at AIR FORCE...Spartans are 6-2 last eight as a road dog and 9-3 last 11 as DD dog. Calhoun 4-2 last six as DD chalk though only 6-7 vs. line as host since 2016.
Slight to San Jose State, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at CAL...If Herm a dog note his 6-3 mark in role since joining ASU last year. Cal 1-7-1 last 9 as chalk (0-2 TY), and these teams “under” a combined 6-2 this season.
Arizona State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 02:37 AM

Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt

No. 12 Penn State at Maryland

Venue/Location: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Penn State -6 ½ , Total 61 ½

Recent Meetings:
2018: Penn State (-12) 38 vs. Maryland 3, Under 51 ½
2017: Penn State (-23.5) 66 at Maryland 3, Over 57
2016: Penn State (+1) 38 at Maryland 14, Under 55 ½
2015: Penn State (-5.5) 31 at Maryland 30, Over 46 ½
2014: Maryland (+3) 20 at Penn State 19, Under 44

It was nice to connect with the USC Trojans last Friday, as even having another QB go down wasn't enough for a Trojans team that's quit a few times in recent years to do so again. The Pac-12 continues to be the conference where parity within the conference continues to occur, and sadly it's because of that that generally takes any one of their programs out of the national conversation.

This Friday we get another showcase of Pac-12 foes with Arizona State and a ranked California team doing battle, but that's not the only high profile Power 5 conference in action. Duke and Virginia Tech put the ACC up first for the evening, but it's the other contest featuring a ranked squad – Penn State – that I want to start with.

The Big 10 gets a piece of the Friday night stage this week, and after Penn State and Maryland both had last week off to prepare for this tilt, we should expect both sides to be rather sharp. For Penn State, it's all about getting back to their efficient ways on offense as tough weather and a tougher Pittsburgh defense had them grinding out a 17-10 home victory the last time they were on the football field. That's a rivalry game for the Nittany Lions that does tend to be much tougher then the point spread usually suggests, and Penn State never sniffed an ATS cover that day.

At the same time, Maryland's offense is looking to rebound after a tough outing against a tough defense themselves, as a 20-17 loss @ Temple was the last time they stepped on a football field. That defeat really let a lot of the air out of a very impressive start for the Terrapins – they had put up 142 points in their first two games – and then just couldn't sustain drives against the Owls. The 24% conversion rate on 3rd down (5-for-21) was the biggest issue for Maryland that day, and even their 1-for-6 number on 4th down just showed how desperate things got for that offense.

So this game sets up with two teams off a week of rest, off games where they both scored just 17 points, after they both averaged at least 62 points scored per game in their previous two games this year. Obviously, both found a big step up in competition level to be a challenge offensively, but at the same time, it's easy to figure that won't last, especially after a week off.

Understandably, the 'over' has seen plenty of support in the betting market, out of the gate and continually, as many believe those 17-point efforts by both sides were just a blip on the radar. Maryland's on a 4-1 O/U run at home dating back to last year, and are 6-0 O/U after scoring fewer than 20 points. At the same time, Penn State is on a 7-1 O/U run away from home, 12-4 O/U off a SU win, and 8-3 O/U themselves after scoring fewer than 20 points. Without question the 'over' appears to be the look for this game, but after opening sub-60 at some places, going 'over' 61.5 now with it being the “public” look can be tough to swallow.

Arizona State at No. 15 California

Venue/Location: Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Cal -5 ½, Total 40

Recent Meetings:
2016 Arizona State (-3.5) 51 vs. California 41, Over 85
2015 California (-4) 48 at Arizona State 46, Over 67

It's always interesting how quickly a 'culture change' can happen at the collegiate level, as both of these schools have changed quite a bit since they last met in September of 2016. You don't need to look any further for proof of that point then the totals posted between then and now, as that meeting in 2016 had the total close at 85 points! It's more than half of that just a few years later.

Cal coach Justin Wilcox has built a ferocious defense fitting of the “Bear” name, while Herm Edwards has implemented his pro experience at this level to help the Sun Devils be much better on that side of the ball too. A flat '40' is an extremely low total for college football, and just like the Big 10 game on Friday night, a strong majority of the action has come on the high side of things. Just keep in mind, even with that support, the number really hasn't budged since opening and that's the difference.

But it's the side that's more appealing to me, as this Cal team definitely looks to be for real with that defense they've got. There was still some skepticism after they upset the Washington Huskies up in Washington as two-TD underdogs in that that game could have been a lightning in a bottle-type effort, but going on the road to Ole Miss for a 9 am body clock start time and winning there was what convinced me that California is for real this year. It's because of that defense – who allowed 20 points for the first time in that 28-20 Ole Miss win – as to why the Golden Bears appear to be legit, and I'm still not sure the market has completely caught up with them.

Herm Edwards brought his own skeptics with him in regards to him succeeding at this level, and even with a 34-31 home loss to Colorado last week, he's 2-0 SU vs Michigan State the last two years, and has brought a level of accountability – especially on defense – to this ASU program that they were lacking for years. That being said, there are still too many mistakes that this team makes during a 60-minute football game, and against a defense as good as the one Cal's got, that just can't happen for an underdog.

With current betting percentages showing there is plenty of support for ASU outright in this game, I believe that on this national stage late Friday night, Justin Wilcox and his Cal Golden Bears announce themselves on more of a national level.

Without question there is still plenty of room for growth offensively for Cal going forward, and if even half of that potential growth is realized, together with their defense, this team could be really scary. They aren't a team that's going to win too many 44-41 type games you can get in the Pac-12 yet, but unless they suffer numerous injuries on the defensive side of things, that's not a realistic potential outcome as it is. The total being set as low as it is suggests that this will be a 21-14 type game, and it's hard not to back this California team that's on a 6-1 ATS run in conference play if that's the case.

Best Bet: California -4 ½

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-2 ATS

**StarDust Bum** · 09-27-2019, 06:45 PM

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DUKE at VT 07:00 PM
VT -2.5
O 51.5

PSU at MD 08:00 PM
PSU -7.0
U 62.0

SJSU at AFA 08:00 PM
SJSU +19.5
U 57.5

ASU at CAL 10:30 PM
ASU +4.0
O 42.5

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 02:22 AM

Benjamin, Arizona State top No. 15 California 24-17
September 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) Eno Benjamin scored his third touchdown of the game on a 3-yard run with 4:41 remaining, leading Arizona State to a 24-17 victory over No. 15 California on Friday night.

The Golden Bears (4-1, 1-1) lost their perfect record and quarterback Chase Garbers to a right shoulder injury, spoiling their highest ranking in a decade. The loss also left the Pac-12 with no undefeated teams before the end of September.

The Sun Devils (4-1, 1-1) bounced back from a 34-31 loss to Colorado in the conference opener last week thanks to a strong performance by Benjamin. He had 29 carries for 100 yards, also scoring on an 11-yard run in the first quarter and a 4-yarder in the third quarter.

Jayden Daniels added 174 yards passing and 84 more on the ground as Arizona State earned its second road win this season against a ranked team, also beating Michigan State 10-7 two weeks ago.

NO. 12 PENN STATE 59, MARYLAND 0

COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) - Sean Clifford threw for 398 yards and three touchdowns, ran for a score and carried No. 12 Penn State to yet another lopsided victory over Maryland.

Penn State scored on its first four possessions, led 38-0 at halftime and finished with 619 yards in its Big Ten opener. After Jan Johnson got things started by ending Maryland's first possession with an interception, Clifford cruised into the end zone from the 8 and the rout was on.

After halftime, most of fans remaining from a rare sellout crowd of 53,228 at Maryland were cheering for the Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0).

Clifford threw a 58-yard touchdown pass to KJ Hamler for a 14-0 lead, connected with Nick Bowerson on a 15-yarder to make it 28-0 and hit Journey Brown for 37 yards for a 35-point cushion. After making his 14-for-30 performance against Pittsburgh a distant memory, Clifford remained on the sideline with 5:45 left in the third quarter and Penn State up 45-0.

The Terrapins (2-2, 0-1) garnered only 128 yards in offense.

**********************************

Harris, Duke put a hurting on Virginia Tech, 45-10
September 27, 2019
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BLACKSBURG, Va. (AP) A first-quarter defensive battle left Duke and Virginia Tech looking for something to kick-start their offense.

The Blue Devils got the break they needed early in the second quarter, while the struggling Hokies never did.

Quentin Harris threw for two touchdowns and ran for another and Duke beat Virginia Tech 45-10 on Friday night.

The Blue Devils managed 5 yards on offense in the first quarter but got their break when Hendon Hooker, on his second play at quarterback for the Hokies, tried to hand the ball to Keshawn King but it never got there. The fumble resulted in a 24-yard loss to the Hokies 16 and on the next play, Harris hit a wide-open Noah Gray for the touchdown.

''We really wanted to capitalize on that and get a score,'' Harris said. ''I thought we had a great play call.''

Hokies coach Justin Fuente downplayed the importance of the momentum swing because it came so early in the game and gave the Blue Devils just a 7-3 lead, but defensive coordinator Bud Foster was not as quick to dismiss it.

''It seemed like that turnover and then the next play took the wind right out of everything,'' he said.

Harris hit Gray from a yard out for the second score, and Duke (3-1, 1-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) made it 21-3 on a 25-yard trick play on which Harris lateraled to Jalon Calhoun, who hit a wide-open Deon Jackson, capping a 91-yard drive just 39 seconds before halftime.

Harris added a 42-yard scoring run and Jackson had a 32-yarder early in the fourth quarter, sending fans pouring out of Lane Stadium.

''Obviously we're not ready,'' said Fuente, whose team, like Duke's was coming back from a bye week. ''We're not at the point where we can compete and play and have a chance to win against that team we played tonight.''

The Hokies (2-2, 0-2) got their only touchdown on a 72-yard connection from Ryan Willis to Damon Hazleton after they fell behind 31-3. The loss is their worst at home since a 49-12 defeat against Houston on Sept. 28, 1974, and was Fuente's first against the Blue Devils.

The start made it seem like a defensive struggle was in the offing. Virginia Tech managed just 60 yards in the opening quarter.

''I think we were really nervous a little to start,'' Harris said. ''But I think we settled in and got back to what we do best - making good decisions, getting the ball in the right guys' hands.''

On the trick play, Jackson was even more open than Gray had been when Calhoun hit him for the third score of the quarter.

Duke outgained the Hokies 422-259 and never let up. In the fourth quarter, facing a fourth-and-3 from midfield, Blue Devils punter Austin Parker took the snap, tucked it and went for 28 yards off the right side, drawing boos. Harris completed a 12-yard pass to Gray on fourth-and-7 from the Hokies 19 on the same drive, and backup quarterback Chris Katrenick ran it in from 8 yards out two plays later.

HAZLETON RETUNS

Hazleton's return for the Hokies was expected to boost their passing game, and did on the long touchdown pass, but his first impact wasn't what Fuente was expecting: the wide receiver was called for an illegal blindside block in the second quarter.

THE TAKEAWAY

Duke: The Blue Devils highlighted a continuing problem for the Hokies with 234 rushing yards, led by Harris' 100 on 17 carries. The total was more than Duke's 181-yard average and worsened Virginia's Tech's average. They had been yielding 174 yards per game.

Harris, who was missing receivers early, finished 20 for 27 for 163 yards and was not sacked.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies hardly looked like a team that spent their bye week making improvements. With a first-and-goal from the Duke 6, three running plays netted 4 yards. The switch from Ryan Willis to Hooker turned disastrous on the fumble leading to Duke's first score, and Fuente said both are battling injuries. He also defended Willis, who finished 7 for 18 for 112 yards with an interception.

''This certainly doesn't fall on Ryan Willis,'' he said.

UP NEXT

The Blue Devils open a two-game homestand with a night game against Pittsburgh.

The Hokies go on the road to face long-time rival Miami.

*****************************

Hammond leads Air Force over San Jose State 41-24
September 27, 2019
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AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. (AP) DJ Hammond III began the night on the sideline, resting a sore ankle. Things changed in a hurry.

Making an unexpected entry after an early injury forced Isaiah Sanders to leave the game, Hammond threw a 64-yard touchdown pass and finished or led four other scoring drives as Air Force beat San Jose State 41-24 on Friday night.

''Our offense has complete trust in both of those guys so whoever is up, we're behind them,'' said running back Taven Birdow, who rushed for 124 yards and two scores.

Sanders had started in place of Hammond, who sprained his ankle in last Friday's loss at Boise State and missed practice time in the days before the San Jose State game. Sanders, however, suffered a lower leg injury during the Falcons' first drive.

Christian Mallard had touchdown runs of 7 and 3 yards, Birdow had scoring runs of 1 and 3 yards, and Timothy Jackson added a 7-yard touchdown run for Air Force (3-1, 1-1 Mountain West), which improved to 4-1 in its series with San Jose State (2-2, 0-1). Geraud Sanders caught the long scoring pass from Hammond.

The Spartans scored on their opening possession, ending the drive with a 1-yard touchdown run by DeJon Packer. But the Spartans were soon overtaken by the Falcons, whose defense denied San Jose State with four fourth-down stops in the game, including one from Air Force's 1-yard line.

''I think that was a big turning point in the game, the first time we got a fourth-down stop, and to be able to consistently get those fourth-down stops was huge for our defense and for our confidence as a team,'' safety Jeremy Fejedelem said.

San Jose State coach Brent Brennan conceded the inability to finish off drives figured most prominently in the Spartans' defeat.

''Those plays were huge,'' Brennan said. ''They were drive stoppers, all of them in the red zone or plus territory. Those were moments when your playmakers have to make a play. We didn't do it there. It was all a lack of execution.''

Up by 11 at the half, Air Force separated itself with two quick third-quarter touchdowns. Joshua Stoner broke loose for 43 yards on a sweep around left end to the San Jose State 3 and Mallard scored the first of his two TDs on the next play.

Jake Koehnke's ensuing kickoff was held up by strong winds swirling through Falcons Stadium before dropping like a rock at the Spartans 20. A sprinting Grant Donaldson beat San Jose State's return team to the live ball to recover for Air Force and Mallard scored his second touchdown moments later to put Air Force up 34-10.

Birdow scored his second touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. Nick Nash threw touchdown passes of 30 yards to Andre Crump Jr. and 6 yards to Derrick Deese Jr. in the final four minutes.

Air Force scored three straight touchdowns to take a 21-10 lead at halftime. Jackson finished the first scoring drive with a 7-yard scoring run and the Falcons moved in front when Hammond threw deep to Geraud Sanders, who was 5 yards clear of the Spartans secondary when he gathered in the 64-yard scoring pass

Air Force's defense set up the score with the second of two fourth-down stops of San Jose State's offense deep in Falcons territory.

The Spartans, who missed two earlier scoring opportunities when they were stopped short on fourth down, got a 25-yard field goal from Matt Mercurio just before the end of the second quarter.

OPENING BLUES

Since joining the Mountain West in 2013, San Jose State has gone 0-7 in league openers, and two of those losses have come at the hands of Air Force.

THE TAKEAWAY

San Jose State: The Spartans started strong but couldn't find a way to sustain their early success. They had their opportunities but four failed fourth-down conversion attempts, all deep in Air Force territory, left the Spartans running on empty.

Air Force: DJ Hammond opened up the Falcons' offense with his touchdown strike to Sanders and the Falcons then leaned on their corps of running backs to carry the load on offense with Sanders injured and Hammond fighting through lingering ankle soreness. The Falcons defense chipped in with key stops throughout the game.

UP NEXT

San Jose State: Returns home to host New Mexico on Friday night.

Air Force: Plays at Navy next Saturday in the first of two meetings against a fellow service academy. Air Force hosts Army on Nov. 2.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 02:31 AM

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/27/2019.........5-3-0.....62.50%............+8.50
09/26/2019.........1-1-0.....50.00%.............-0.50
09/21/2019......30-38-1....44.12%..............-59.00
09/20/2019.........5-1-0.....83.33%.............+19.50
09/19/2019.........0-2-0.......0.00%.............-11.00
09/14/2019......28-24-1.....54.00%............+8.00
09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%............-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%............-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.............-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%...........+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%.......... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%........... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%........... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%........... -3.00

Totals...........130-154-4...... 45.77%..... -197.00

*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/27/2019............2 - 1.............+4.50.............1 - 1.................-0.50.............+4.00
09/26/2019............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1.................-5.50..............-0.50
09/21/2019............13 - 20..........-45.00............10 - 6..............+17.00............-28.00
09/20/2019............1 - 1..............-0.50..............2 - 0...............+10.00............+9.50
09/19/2019............0 - 1..............-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.00
09/14/2019...........16 - 7.............+41.50............5 - 6................-8.00.............+33.50
09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................53 - 84...........-96.00..........42 - 43.............-25.50.............-122.50

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 02:32 AM

Saturday’s 6-pack

Odds to team to score the most points in Saturday’s college games (Rampart Casino):

8-1— Oklahoma

10-1— Alabama, UCF, Clemson, Ohio State, Utah State

12-1— Fresno State

15-1— Wake Forest

18-1— Arizona

20-1— Texas A&M, Western Michigan

Quote of the Day
“Who is going to miss you after you die? Maybe your two dogs will miss you for a week?”
Royals manager Ned Yost, talking to a sportswriter he was joking with a few years ago

Saturday’s quiz
Before becoming the Utah Jazz in 1979, where did the Jazz call home?

Friday’s quiz
Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election.

Thursday’s quiz
Julius Erving and George Gervin both played for the Virginia Squires in the ABA.

*****************************

Saturday’s List of 13: Notes on 13 other college games for today……

Underdogs covered four of last five Northwestern-Wisconsin games; Wildcats are 3-4-1 ATS in last eight visits to Madison, 14-4 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog. Wisconsin won its first three games this year by a combined 145-14; they were up 35-0 on Michigan LW, outgaining Wolverines 487-299. Badgers are 12-15-1 in last 28 games as a home favorite. 2-0 this year.

South Florida won its last three games with SMU by 1-24-8 points; teams last met in 2016. SMU is off to a 4-0 start behind Texas transfer QB Buechele, scoring 37+ points in all four games- they covered twice in last seven games as a road favorite. South Florida was outscored 63-10 in losing its two I-A game; they killed a I-AA stiff LW. Bulls covered once in their last five games as a home underdog.

Favorites covered nine of last 11 Buffalo-Miami games; Bulls are 3-5 ATS in their last eight visits to Miami. Buffalo covered four of last five games as a road favorite- they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing last one 35-17 (-6) at Liberty. Red Hawks are 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, with all three losses by 22+ points; they lost 76-5 at Ohio State LW, are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

Minnesota won five of last six games with Purdue; Gophers ran for 200+ yards in all six games. Favorites covered last five series games played here. Minnesota is 3-0 this year, allowing 88 points, with no wins by more than 7 points. Purdue allowed 92 points in its 1-2 start; under Brohm, Boilers are 8-7 ATS at home. Purdue threw for 932 yards in its first two games, but only 181 in their 34-13 home loss to TCU in their last game.

Road team won both Louisiana-Georgia Southern games; Ragin’ Cajuns (+7.5) won 33-26 here two years ago. ULL won its first road game 45-25 (+3) at Ohio LW; Cajuns are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. GSU lost its last game 35-32 at Minnesota (outgained 382-198), week after they struggled to beat I-AA Maine 26-18; Eagles are 5-4-1 as home underdogs.

Middle Tennessee lost its two I-A games 40-21/41-18, to Michigan/Duke; they beat a I-AA stiff 45-26 in between, but allowed 200+ rushing yards in all three games. MTSU is 9-13-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog. Iowa plays Michigan/Penn State the next two weeks, is likely looking past this game; Hawkeyes covered six of their last eight games as a home favorite- they are 7-2 in last nine games as a double digit favorite.

Wyoming is 8-3 in last 11 games vs UNLV, losing 69-66 (-7.5) on the Strip LY. UNLV allowed 490 RY, 73 points in losing its two I-A games; they lost first road game 30-14 at Northwestern. Rebels completed only 27-52 passes in those games. Under Sanchez, UNLV is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog. Last 3+ years, Wyoming is 6-2 ATS when laying points at home; Cowboys are 2-1 vs I-A teams, despite allowing 354+ PY in all three games.

Michigan State won nine of last ten games with Indiana, which hasn’t even covered a spread in its last seven visits to East Lansing. Hoosiers are 3-1 with a 51-10 loss at Ohio State; they’re 13-20 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. MSU covered once in its last six games as a home favorite; they got upset 10-7 by Arizona St in their last home tilt. Spartans are 32-1 this year, with all three wins by 21+ points.

Northern Illinois was outscored 79-25 in losing its two road games; Huskies are 18-8 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog, but they’ve got new coach this year. Vanderbilt lost its first three games, allowing 138 points; they allowed 927 PY in last two games. Under Mason, Commodores are 8-9 as a home favorite, 5-7 outside the SEC. Last three years, MAC squads are 9-7 ATS when playing an SEC opponent.

Kansas (+13.5) upset TCU 27-26 at home LY, there first win over the Horned Frogs in 21 years; Jayhawks covered two of last three visits to Fort Worth. Kansas is 1-2 vs I-A, with both losses by five points; they won SU as 19-point underdogs at Boston College. TCU (-7.5) got upset here by local rival SMU LW; Horned Frogs are 3-13-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. TCU has completed only 24-60 passes in its two I-A games.

UAB won its two games with Western Kentucky by total of 7 points; teams last met in 2014. Blazers won their first two I-A games this year by 11-32 points, scoring 31-35 points; under Clark, UAB is 4-4 ATS when laying points on the road. Over last decade, WKU is 13-6 as a home underdog, but they’re 10-18 SU in last 28 games; Hilltoppers were outrushed 361-141 in splitting their two I-A games.

Ohio State won its first four games, last three by combined score of 169-15; over last 10+ years, Buckeyes 16-19-1 ATS as a road favorite- they’re 13-11 ATS in last 24 games when laying double digits. OSU won last four games vs Nebraska, but struggled in 36-31 (-18) home win LY. Huskers outgained Illinois 690-299 LW but won only 42-38; since 2010, Nebraska is 2-6 ATS as a home underdog.

Houston QB King is red-shirting after Cougars’ 1-3 start; unsure how much chaos that throws the Cougars’ program into. Houston allowed 118 points in losing all three of its I-A games; they are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog. Since 2011, North Texas is 17-11 ATS when laying points at home. Last four years, AAC teams are 12-8 ATS when playing a C-USA foe. These teams last met in 2012.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 02:37 AM

Virginia at Notre Dame
September 27, 2019
By Brian Edwards

Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Venue/Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Notre Dame -11.5, Total 48.5

Notre Dame might have lost for the first time this year at Georgia last week, but there’s no doubt that the Fighting Irish earned the respect of many across the country in defeat.

At least they did with this scribe. I had obviously undervalued Brian Kelly’s team, who I moved up from No. 15 to No. 11 in my Power Rankings after dropping a 23-17 decision in Athens.

Notre Dame (2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) returns to South Bend on Saturday to host unbeaten Virginia. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Fighting Irish installed as a 11-point home favorite with a total of 48.5. The Cavaliers were +350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350).

Kelly’s team easily covered the spread as a 15.5-point road underdog against UGA in Athens. After a scoreless first quarter, Notre Dame drew first blood on a one-yard touchdown pass from Ian Book to Cole Kmet. UGA answered to knot the game at 7-7 on a three-yard TD run by D’Andre Swift with 2:27 left in the second quarter.

The Fighting Irish went to halftime with a 10-7 advantage, though, thanks to Jonathan Doerer’s 27-yard field goal on the final play of the first half. Georgia’s Rodrigo Blankenship tied the game with a 40-yard field goal for the Bulldogs with 8:31 left in the third quarter. Blankenship added a 31-yarder with 4:21 remaining in the third to give UGA its first lead of the game.

Kirby Smart’s club went ahead 20-10 on a Jake Fromm TD pass early in the third quarter, and the Bulldogs took a 13-point lead on Blankenship’s 43-yard FG with 6:54 left. Book found Chase Claypool for a four-yard TD pass with 3:12 remaining to cut the deficit to 23-17.

UGA held on to preserve the victory. The Bulldogs held Notre Dame on a pair of fourth-down attempts and intercepted Book twice. The Fighting Irish were flagged 12 times for 85 yards.

Notre Dame opened the year with a 35-17 win at Louisville as a 19-point road favorite. After an open date, the Fighting Irish destroyed New Mexico 66-14 as a 34.5-point home favorite.

Book has connected on 61.7 percent of his passes for 828 yards with an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The junior signal caller has also run for 145 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Tony Jones has run for a team-best 148 yards and one TD, averaging 4.9 YPC. Jones has carried a heavier load since RB Jafar Armstrong went down with a groin injury in the opener. Armstrong isn’t expected back for another week or two. He had seven rushing TDs and a 5.3 YPC average in 2018.

Claypool has a team-high 15 receptions for 256 yards and two TDs. Javon McKinley also has a pair of TD grabs, while Kmet has nine catches for 108 yards and one TD.

Notre Dame is ranked 24th in the country in scoring, averaging 39.3 points per game. The Fighting Irish is holding opponents to an 18.0 PPG average to rank 29th in the nation in scoring ‘D.’

Virginia (4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) was my favorite season win total over the summer. I backed the Cavs to go ‘over’ 7.5 victories and to make the program’s first appearance in the ACC Championship Game. All is well on that front to date, but there are some questions lingering from UVA’s last two results.

Bronco Mendenhall’s squad opened the season in extremely impressive fashion, downing Pittsburgh (where UCF just lost this past Saturday) 30-14 as a 2.5-point road favorite. Then in Week 2, Virginia trounced William & Mary by a 52-17 count and took the cash as a 32-point home ‘chalk.’

However, UVA’s last two wins have been a little shaky. First, the Cavs trailed Florida State 14-10 at intermission when hosting the Seminoles two weeks ago. They needed a two-yard touchdown run from Wayne Taulapapa with 2:34 remaining to take the lead. QB Bryce Perkins’s three-yard run for the two-point conversion gave UVA a 31-24 advantage, and the lead stuck when the defense held off FSU’s last-gasp drive.

The two-point conversion run by Mitchell was critical for bettors on the total, as it sent the 55 combined points ‘over’ the 54-point total. The 31-24 win resulted in a push with UVA closing as a seven-point home favorite.

Mitchell completed 30-of-40 passes for 295 yards and one TD against the ‘Noles, but he was intercepted twice. He rushed for 46 yards on 12 attempts, while Taulapapa ran for 53 yards and three TDs on 18 carries. Joe Reed had eight receptions for 83 yards and one TD.

Mendenhall’s bunch fell in a vintage look-ahead scenario last week at home against Old Dominion. Maybe bettors will chalk up UVA’s lackluster effort to the look-ahead factor, but maybe not after considering some of the following factoids.

ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead and took a 17-7 advantage into halftime. With the ball and a 10-point lead, the Monarchs lost all momentum when Virginia’s Zane Zandier intercepted Stone Smartt and returned the pick 22 yards for a touchdown.

UVA took its first lead at 21-17 on a seven-yard TD run by Taulapapa with 10:16 remaining. Perkins found Reed on a 25-yard scoring strike with 7:33 left to provide the final scoring in a 28-17 victory, but ODU easily covered the number as a 27-point road underdog.

ODU had more first downs (16-14) and total offense (270-244) than the Cavs. Perkins completed 15-of-24 throws for 175 yards and one TD without an interception. He had 35 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries, while Taulapapa was limited to 33 rushing yards on 11 attempts.

For the season, Perkins has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 843 yards with a 6/4 TD-INT ratio. He’s also rushed for a team-best 193 yards and two TDs. Taulapapa has 152 rushing yards and five TDs, but he’s been limited to 3.9 YPC.

Reed has been Perkins’s favorite target, hauling in 23 catches for 215 yards and three TDs. Hasise Dubois has 16 receptions for 191 yards and one TD, while Terrell Jana has 15 grabs for 174 yards. Reed is also a factor on special teams, returning eight kicks for 302 yards and one TD.

Virginia returned eight starters from a 2018 defense that gave up only 20.1 PPG. This unit is currently ranked 14th in the nation in total defense, 11th at defending the run, 34th in pass defense and 30th in scoring ‘D’ (18.0 PPG). Zandier leads this group with a team-high 29 tackles.

As a road underdog during Mendenhall’s four-year tenure, UVA has compiled an 8-7 spread record. The Cavs are 4-5 ATS with one outright win (42-23 at Boise State as 13-point ‘dogs) in nine games as double-digit ‘dogs on Mendenhall’s watch. This is UVA first double-digit underdog spot since taking the money in a 44-28 loss at second-ranked Miami as a 19.5-point puppy in its next-to-last regular season game in 2017.

Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for UVA to date, but the 44 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 46-point tally in its lone road assignment at Pitt.

The ‘under’ is 2-1 for Notre Dame, but the ‘over’ hit in its only home game vs. UNM when the 80 combined points went North of the 64-point total.

Notre Dame is 22-24-3 ATS in 49 games as home favorite during Kelly’s 10-year tenure. The Irish have won 12 consecutive home games since losing to Georgia in Week 2 of the 2017 campaign.

These schools haven’t met since 2015 when Notre Dame captured a 34-27 win at UVA on Sept. 12 of 2015, but the Cavs covered the spread as 13.5-point home underdogs. The only other meeting was in 1989 when the Irish won 35-13 as an 18.5-point home favorite.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

Bet and Collect Podcast
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Note: All spreads mentioned were as of late Friday afternoon.

-- Virginia is looking to become 5-0 for the first time since 2004.

-- Stanford QB K.J. Costello is ‘out’ at Oregon State due to an undisclosed injury.

-- East Carolina, a three-point underdog at Old Dominion, is mired in a 3-13-1 ATS slump in its 17 games as a road underdog since 2016. The Pirates have won outright just once in their last 18 road assignments.

-- Washington State owns a 16-5 spread record in its past 21 games as a road underdog. The Cougars, who are looking to bounce back from a stunning 67-63 loss to UCLA, are catching six points at Utah. The Utes had their star QB Tyler Huntley (5/0 TD-INT) upgraded to ‘probable’ on Wednesday, while RB Zack Moss was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ after leaving last week’s 30-23 loss at USC with a first-half injury. Washington State has won four games in a row over Utah.

-- Northwestern, a 24.5-point underdog at Wisconsin for a noon Eastern kick on ABC, is 24-10 ATS in 34 games as a road underdog since 2009. However, I’m endorsing a play on the Badgers -7 in the first quarter if you can find one.

-- Northwestern QB Hunter Johnson might be the country’s most disappointing player. The former 5-star recruit to Clemson has completed only 48.5 percent of his passes for the Wildcats. Johnson has 308 passing yards and an abysmal ¼ TD-INT ratio.

-- As of late Friday afternoon, several QBs remained ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s games, including Purdue’s Elijah Sindelar, Indiana’s Michael Pinix, Ole Miss’s Matt Corral, FSU’s James Blackman and Mississippi State’s Tommy Stevens.

-- Kentucky has won five games in a row over South Carolina, which is a three-point home favorite against the Wildcats for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick on the SEC Network. Both team’s QBs – Ryan Hilinski and Sawyer Smith – were upgraded to ‘probable’ earlier this week.

-- Colorado State has already lost QB Collin Hill, who had an 8/2 TD-INT ratio in the Rams’ first three games, to a season-ending injury. Now CSU will probably be without two of its other best offensive players for its Mountain West Conference opener Saturday at Utah State. RB Marvin Kinsey and WR Warren Jackson are both listed as ‘doubtful.’ Kinsey is second in the nation in rushing yards (556) with three TDs and an 8.2 YPC average. He also has 11 receptions for 165 yards and two TDs. Jackson has 31 catches for 327 yards and three TDs.

-- Arkansas State lost starting QB Logan Bonner to season-ending thumb surgery on Wednesday. Bonner had thrown for 1,052 yards with a 10/1 TD-INT ratio for the Red Wolves, who are seven-point underdogs Saturday at Troy. They’ve limped to a 4-8 ATS record in their past 12 games as road underdogs.

-- Similar to my first-quarter bet on Wisconsin, I’m ok with laying -10 on Alabamas vs. Ole Miss in the opening stanza.

-- Tua Tagovailoa remains the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at around a +180 price at most books. The next-shortest odds in the +350 neighborhood belong to LSU’s Joe Burrow, who had 75/1 Heisman odds at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi (an MGM Resorts property) when I was there in August. Burrow has completed 80.6 percent of his passes for 1,520 yards with a 17/2 TD-INT ratio.

-- Boise State lost its leading tackler in last Friday’s 31-19 home win over Air Force. Sophomore LB Ezekiel Noa suffered a broken wrist and tore his ACL against the Falcons. Noa had a team-best 28 tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack and one QB hurry in four games.

-- Kansas State owns an incredible 24-8 spread record as a road underdog since 2010. The unbeaten Wildcats have had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s game at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 31-21-2 ATS as home ‘chalk’ since 2009. Most spots had Mike Gundy’s team as a 4.5-point favorite Friday afternoon.

-- West Virginia offensive guard Josh Sills is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Sills was a second-team All-Big-12 selection in 2018.

-- Norhtern Illinois senior MLB Kyle Pugh is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Pugh was a second-team All-MAC choice last year when he had 106 tackles, 1.5 sacks and 3.5 TFL’s. The Huskies are 6.5-point underdogs Saturday at winless Vanderbilt. They collide in Nashville at noon Eastern on the SEC Network.

-- Extra non-CFB Nugget: I LOVE Khalil Rountree as a -120 favorite (at Westgate SuperBook as of Friday afternoon) vs. Ion Cutelaba at Saturday’s UFC Copenhagen show!

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 10:06 AM

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in select FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-24/46), 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Badgers have outscored opponents 100-0 in the first half of games but won’t have the top safeties on their depth chart for the opening 30 minutes since starters Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson were each suspended for targeting against Michigan. Projected starter Scott Nelson has already been lost for the season and top backup Madison Cone is questionable with a leg injury, so the program’s depth at the position is about to be tested. We’ll see if the Wildcats are able to take shots on the road and take advantage, but new QB Hunter Johnson has really struggled and went for 6-for-17 in his first road game against a Stanford defense nowhere near as good as Wisconsin’s. Northwestern should get WR Bennett Skowronek back but is likely to be without starting corner Trae Williams for a second straight contest. The Wildcats last won in Madison in 2015 (13-7) and won last season’s game 31-17, so Paul Chryst should have no problem motivating the Badgers as he seeks to improve to 3-2 against Pat Fitzgerald.

BYU (-2.5/61) at Toledo, 12 p.m ET, BTN: The Rockets failed to win last year’s high-profile home game against Miami but took down Tulsa, Fresno State and Iowa State in succession the previous three years, so BYU must be wary coming into the Glass Bowl favored. Toledo is 17-3 at home under Jason Candle, who just won at Colorado State thanks to RB Bryant Roback’s 228 rushing yards and four touchdowns. BYU has seen better teams than the Rockets all season but will be playing for the fifth time in as many weeks after home games against Utah, USC and Washington and a wild comeback road win at Tennessee the last time it left Provo. With a bye up next, we’re about to see what the Cougars have left in the tank in a critical swing game to their season. BYU ranks 116th in the country in stopping the run and will face a team that uses tempo more than anyone they’ve seen, though Toledo’s use of it against the Cougs’ bigger athletes will be predicated on how successful they are on first down. BYU’s defense is down senior LB Zayne Anderson (shoulder) and freshman Keenan Pili while the offense lost speedy South Carolina transfer RB Ty’Son Williams. Rice grad transfer Supe Eskupa is now likely to get more carries.

Rutgers at Michigan (-27.5/49), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: Jim Harbaugh’s seat is scalding and nothing the Wolverines do here is going to relieve that pressure. Opportunities to rebound start with next week’s homecoming game against Iowa, so this matchup with a heavy underdog that the Wolverines have beaten by a combined margin of 204-37 over the past four years will provide one last chance for younger players on the back end of the roster to get playing time. Turnover-prone Scarlet Knights sophomore Art Sitkowski had some nice moments against Boston College and should again get the start with McLane Carter dealing with a concussion. Wolverines backup QB Dylan McCaffrey took an awful hit against Wisconsin and is doubtful to play, so covering this large a spread may end up in the hands of a run game and redshirt freshman Joe Milton, particularly since starter Shea Patterson has looked banged up. Milton is raw but definitely the most promising QB prospect on the roster. Starting TE Sean McKeon won’t play.

Middle Tennessee at Iowa (-24/51), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: The Blue Raiders haven’t suffered much offensively in years but are struggling to run the ball well while understandably sputtering without all-time leading passer Brent Stockstill, who threw for over 10,000 career yards before graduating. QB Asher O’Hara has accounted for 79 percent of the team’s offense but is more of a runner who should struggle against a physical defense. The Hawkeyes have Michigan game film to watch for next week’s clash and will therefore see a ton of that Week 1 MTSU film so they’ll be well prepared. The Blue Raiders are 0-16 against ranked foes but have covered in each of their last two outings. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is just 17-17 coming off a bye.

Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt (-7/52.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Commodores came into the season looking for the first winning season of the Derek Mason era and are dangerously close to having realistically no shot at a second straight bowl bid before September even ends. Holding serve here would definitely help stabilize matters before an important and winnable game at Ole Miss next week. NIU comes off its first bye week under new head coach Thomas Hammock, so expect to see a few wrinkles from a team looking for the program’s second SEC win in 12 tries, having last defeated pre-Nick Saban Alabama in 2003. After a 44-8 loss at Nebraska that featured onside kicks, multiple pooch punts and a fake punt, NIU is certain to change things up and obviously isn’t shy about taking risks. Cal transfer Ross Bowers and returning MAC Championship MVP Marcus Childers are competent QBs, while Ball State grad transfer Riley Neal has shown improvement for Vandy over the past few weeks and has plenty of experience against NIU in MAC play over the past few years.

Kansas at TCU (-14.5/49), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Jayhawks followed their impressive upset of Boston College up by hanging with West Virginia, so Les Miles has at least succeeded in upgrading the quality of play early. We’ll see if Kansas wears down once we get deeper into Big 12 play, but Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs are going to see a much improved team on tape and should therefore have no excuse to suffer a letdown coming off an upset loss to SMU. Freshman Max Duggan nearly rallied TCU past the Mustangs in last week’s fourth quarter and will continue to start ahead of junior Mike Collins. Kansas stunned TCU in Lawrence 27-26 last season and has a chance to win again with Pooka Williams expected to get more touches, loosening up a Frogs defense for Carter Stanley to try and take advantage. If he plays well, expect the Jayhawks to hang around.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-27/70), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Red Raiders will need Alan Bowman’s backups to do thir part in order to keep this from getting ugly. With Texas Tech’s top passer sidelined, winning a shootout is out the window and new head coach Matt Wells will seek to try and keep Jalen Hurts off the field by moving the chains via dual-threat QB Jett Duffey and Rice transfer Jackson Tyner and the short passing game. It’s a shame we won’t see Bowman but that makes it clear Tech’s hopes of hanging around for more than a half hinge on a defense that has looked improved despite losing key linebacker Dakota Allen to the NFL. Jordyn Brooks is headed there too, but probably needs more help to handle the Sooners. Jalen Hurts is the national leader in QBR but deflected any Heisman talk this week, calling it rat poison. This should be one of those games where he’s able to pad stats if Lincoln Riley plays him deep into the third quarter and it’s not too windy. Thunderstorms could be in the equation for the second half which makes Sooners 1H bets awfully appealing.

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-23/61), 12 p.m. ET, SECN: The Razorbacks come off an embarrassing loss to San Jose State that has them at the low point of the Chad Morris era. That speaks volumes considering they went winless in SEC play last season and have a run of losses in 17 of 18 conference games going, which includes 12 in succession. Left tackle Colton Jackson should be back, so the offensive line play should be better. The Hogs will have a motivated starter going in A&M transfer Nick Starkel, who couldn’t beat out Kellen Bond and couldn’t beat the Spartans last week after throwing five interceptions. We’ll see if he can rebound with the fan base turning on the entire program at this point. Suiting up and performing in front of the 12th Man is therefore less daunting than going out and facing the music in Fayetteville, but Starkel is nonetheless up against a great challenge even with this game being played in Arlington instead of College Station. Texas A&M has defeated the Hogs in seven straight, though four of the last five have been in seven-point games that came down to the final few plays.

Late-night Snacks

Washington State at Utah (-6/56.5), 10 p.m. ET, FS1: The Cougs come off a terrible loss to UCLA in which they gave up 50 second-half points in regulation to lose 67-63, so this is probably the right time to go out on the road as they won’t be back in Pullman for a game until homecoming on Oct. 19. A defense that has a lot of blushes to atone for may not have to deal with top RB Zack Moss, who missed the second half of last week’s disappointing loss to USC. QB Tyler Huntley was also rumored to be leaning toward sitting after suffering a foot injury and limping off against the Trojans but he’s defiantly said he’ll be out there for this one. With a bye on deck for the Utes, expect those that can gut out the game to do so, but head coach Kyle Whittingham isn’t likely to push it with Moss’ shoulder. Before you pull the trigger on the ‘over’ based on last week’s lack of defense from both of these teams, be aware that there could be severe weather to deal with on Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

UCLA at Arizona (-6/72), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: After last week's thrilling comeback victory, the mood around Chip Kelly's football team is far different than it has been after a disappointing 0-3 start. Chip Kelly and his QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, now get a chance to try and get to 3-3 by their Oct. 12 bye week since they'll be favored at home against Oregon State next week. Demetric Felton is looking to emerge as one of the Pac-12's top home run hitters after last week's breakthrough, while Khalil Tate is probably the guy most capable of taking off for 80 yards every time he touches the ball. There have been at least 61 points scored in each of the past four meetings between these schools.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 11:53 AM

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NIU at VAN 12:00 PM
NIU +7.5
O 51.5

NW at WIS 12:00 PM
WIS -23.0

MTU at IOWA 12:00 PM
IOWA -23.5
O 51.0

RUTG at MICH 12:00 PM
RUTG +27.5

KU at TCU 12:00 PM
U 48.0

BYU at TOL 12:00 PM
TOL +2.5

TAM at ARK 12:00 PM
TAM -23.0
U 59.5

TTU at OKLA 12:00 PM
OKLA -27.0
U 69.5

CMU at WMU 12:00 PM
WMU -16.0

BUFF at M-OH 12:00 PM
BUFF -2.5

ISU at BAY 03:30 PM
BAY +2.5

UVA at ND 03:30 PM
UVA +11.0
U 46.5

USC at WASH 03:30 PM
USC +11.0
O 60.5

IND at MSU 03:30 PM
IND +14.0

MINN at PUR 03:30 PM
PUR +1.0

MISS at ALA 03:30 PM
O 62.0

GT at TEM 03:30 PM
TEM -8.5

CC at APP 03:30 PM
CC +15.5

AKR at MASS 03:30 PM
AKR -9.0

FAU at CHAR 03:30 PM
FAU +1.0
O 65.5

CLEM at UNC 03:30 PM
U 60.0

**StarDust Bum** · 09-28-2019, 06:17 PM

EVENING BEST BETS:

CONN at UCF 07:00 PM
CONN +42.5
O 65.0

UTEP at SOMIS 07:00 PM
UTEP +25.5
O 48.5

STAN at ORST 07:00 PM
ORST +3.0
U 56.0

LT at RICE 07:00 PM
RICE +9.0
O 48.5

MSST at AUB 07:00 PM
MSST +7.0
O 47.0

UAB at WKU 07:00 PM
UAB -3.5

USA at ULM 07:00 PM
ULM -14.5

KSU at OKST 07:00 PM
KSU +4.0
U 60.0

UK at SOCAR 07:30 PM
UK +3.5
U 54.0

CSU at USU 07:30 PM
USU -24.0

OSU at NEB 07:30 PM
OSU -17.0

NCST at FSU 07:30 PM
NCST +7.0

FRES at NMSU 08:00 PM
FRES -20.0
U 63.5

HOU at UNT 08:00 PM
UNT -7.5

UNLV at WYO 08:00 PM
WYO -9.5
O 44.5

WSU at UTAH 10:00 PM
WSU +5.0
U 56.5

HAW at NEV 10:30 PM
HAW +2.0
U 64.0

UCLA at ARIZ 10:30 PM
UCLA +6.5
U 72.5

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