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[Udog]

By: Monty Andrews



TROUBLE FOR SPARTANS?

The Michigan State Spartans will have to do without one of their standout offensive linemen until November. Kevin Jarvis suffered a knee injury in last week's stunning loss to Arizona State and is expected to be out for six or seven weeks, according to Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio.

Jarvis and the rest of the Spartans' offensive line had their hands full in last week's loss, with Michigan State producing just 3.2 yards per carry while having five passes broken up and allowing a sack. Tyler Higby will take over for Jarvis at left tackle going into this weekend's encounter with host Northwestern.

And while the Wildcats were torched 30-14 by UNLV last time out, they ranked 26th in run defense a season ago and held the Spartans to just 19 points in last year's meeting at Spartan Stadium. We like MSU to come in below its team total of 24.5.


NOT SO FAST!

Don't get too excited, Dillon Gabriel fans. Central Florida head coach Josh Huepel isn't ready to name the sensational freshman as the starting quarterback for Saturday's visit to Pittsburgh. This despite Gabriel going off in last week's statement victory over visiting Stanford, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns.

Gabriel has the hot hand ahead of season-opening No. 1 Brandon Wimbush and the recently-returned-from-injury Darriel Mack, both of whom were expected to see action against the Cardinal. In the end, Wimbush saw just one snap while Mack didn't play.

It would be foolhardy for UCF to pivot away from Gabriel, whose advanced level of play should allow the Knights to dominate the time of possession. That, combined with Pitt's ugly offensive numbers (14.7 PPG, 2.8 YPC), make UCF a great pick ATS.


DOWN FOR THE COUNT

Collin Hill has suffered yet another devastating knee injury. The Colorado State quarterback suffered a torn left ACL in last week's loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks and will miss the remainder of the season.

That could be it for Hill's football career, as this is the third time he has torn the ACL in his left knee. Hill was enjoying a terrific season for the Rams, having completed better than two-thirds of his pass attempts for 840 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Patrick O'Brien will take over the starting role beginning with Saturday's game against visiting Toledo.

This line has shifted three points in the Rockets’ favor since opening at -6.5, and that might be too much movement. O'Brien was impressive in relief last time out, while CSU went 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of 7-plus points in 2018. We like the home side here.


A GREAT UNKNOWN

Saturday's tall task might have become a whole lot tougher for the Auburn Tigers as they prepare to open their SEC schedule against No. 17 Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

Senior defensive tackle Derrick Brown is considered questionable for the game after suffering an upper-body injury early in last week's victory over Kent State. Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn considers Brown "day-to-day". The projected first-round pick in next year's NFL draft has seven tackles (one for loss) in three games, and has 22.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in his three-plus years at Auburn.

Brown's absence would be a devastating one for the Tigers' defense – and a major boost to a Texas A&M rush attack averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry. Look to either the Aggies ATS or the Over on their team total if Brown is ruled out.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

More NFL trends for Week 3:

— Bengals covered eight of last ten as a road underdog.

— Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 non-division games.

— New England covered 13 of last 19 games vs AFC East foes.

— Colts covered one of their last six road openers.

— Miami covered twice in last eight games vs NFC teams.

— Atlanta covered three of last 13 non-divisional games.

Tweet of the Day
“I mean, this is something that’s serious. If his spleen bursts, then we have a problem.”
Jets’ coach Adam Gase on Sam Darnold’s mononucleosis

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Dan Marino play his college football?

Wednesday’s quiz
Ben McAdoo was the Giants’ head coach before Pat Shurmur.

Tuesday’s quiz
Jeff Fisher coached the Tennessee Titans in their only Super Bowl appearance.

*************************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) From Liam Stack (this story made me laugh):
A New Zealand man brought an emotional support clown to a meeting where he knew he’d be fired. The clown blew up balloons and folded them into a series of animals throughout the meeting, then mimed crying when the man was handed a pink slip.

Didn’t help; the guy still lost his job.

12) From Russell Baxter: 72 of the 106 Super Bowl teams started that season 2-0; only four of them started 0-2.

11) Atlanta Falcons play their first nine games this year in domes; their first of only three outdoor games is Week 11 (Nov 17) at Carolina.

10) From Ralph Michaels: Since 2016, under is 18-9 in college football games that had a total of 40 or less points.

9) Colts, Eagles and Packers are pretty banged up; they all scrapped their traditional Wednesday practices this week, and had walk-throughs instead.

8) David Fales would appear to be the Jets’ new backup QB; he’s thrown 48 passes in three NFL games, two for Miami in 2017 (with Adam Gase as coach) and one for Chicago in 2016. Fales played college ball at San Jose State.

7) Football stuff:
— Chiefs’ LT Eric Fisher is having core muscle surgery, is out this week.

6) Last time there was a week of NFL games where no team scored 30+ points was Week 9 in 1995, so long ago that the Houston Oilers won a game that week.

5) Pirates’ closer Felipe Vazquez was arrested in Pittsburgh Tuesday on charges of soliciting a child, computer pornography and providing obscene material to minors.

4) Giancarlo Stanton’s over/under home run total for this year was 41.5; wth 11 days left in this season, he has one homer and seven RBI.

3) A’s 1, Royals 0 (11)— Mark Canha got the walk-off hit on Mark Canha T-shirt Day and Chad Pinder made a great catch in left field to save two runs as Oakland won its 92nd game this year.

2) Four teams that got to the Super Bowl after starting season 0-2:
— 1993— Cowboys (won Super Bowl)
— 1996— Patriots (lost)
— 2001— Patriots (won)
— 2007— Giants (won)

1) From Annie Karni of the New York Times:

“Sean Spicer got a minimum of $125,000 to be on Dancing With the Stars, and the pay goes up with every week he stays on.”

We live in a very strange world.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 4
September 18, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Indiana 2-1 0-1 1-2 1-2
Iowa 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2
Maryland 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1
Michigan 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Michigan State 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Minnesota 3-0 0-0 0-2-1 2-1
Nebraska 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Northwestern 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2
Ohio State 3-0 0-0 2-1 1-1-1
Penn State 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1
Purdue 1-2 0-0 1-2 2-1
Rutgers 1-1 0-1 1-1 1-1
Wisconsin 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Week 4 Big Ten Matchups
Connecticut at Indiana (-27.5, Total 56.5)
Michigan State (-9.5, Total 38.5) at Northwestern
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3.5, Total 44)
Boston College (-8.5, Total 57.5) at Rutgers
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-39, Total 60.5)
Nebraska (-13.5, Total 62.5) at Illinois

MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Badgers have been simply dominant in their first 2 games. After topping Central Michigan 61-0 two weeks ago, they have outscored their first 2 opponents 110-0! Believe it or not, Wisconsin dominated the game even more than the 61 point margin might indicate. The final stats were astounding – Wisconsin 37 first downs / CMU 3 first downs, Wisconsin 599 total yards / CMU 58 total yards, Wisconsin 400 yards passing (yes passing!) / CMU 43 yards passing. We all know the Badgers can run the ball as well as anyone in the country, on Saturday QB Jack Coan proved he might be able to provide a threat through the air. He was 26 of 33 for 363 yards and 3 TD’s. If he can provide anywhere near that type of production moving forward this team will be extremely tough to beat. We mentioned in our last report we had been hearing that this Wisconsin defense could be special. Well they’ve allowed a total of 215 yards on 100 plays in their two games this season. They were dealt a bit of a blow when starting free safety Scott Nelson was ruled out for the remainder of the season with a leg injury. The Badgers will also be without starting nose guard Williams leaving true freshman Benton as the starter.

The Wolverines also come in 2-0 but their new offense is struggling a bit. New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has implemented an up tempo offense and while Michigan has increased the number of plays they run per game, their efficiency hasn’t been great. Through two games they are averaging 77 plays per game but just 5.1 yards per play which is down from 6.1 YPP last season. Fumbles have been a huge problem thus far for Michigan as they already have lost 5 through two games after losing just 3 the entire season last year. The Wolverines are also coming off a bye and were nearly upset as a 21 point favorite at home vs Army two weeks ago. Michigan’s only lead of the game was 24-21 in the 2nd overtime which was also the final score. The offense could be bolstered by a few key players who are returning this weekend. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is probably their most dangerous weapon, and All Big Ten LT Jon Runyan are both scheduled to return from injury. Defensive coordinator Don Brown also stated this week that Michigan can finally play their “base” defense on Saturday after facing a Middle Tennessee State team that plays 1 RB, no TE’s and 4 wideouts for much of the game and then facing Army’s option attack in their 2nd game.

This is a very interesting line with Wisconsin opening -3 on Sunday. The early line on this game way back in late spring was released at Michigan -6 so a 9-point swing based on the results of the first two games. The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright. Since 2000, Wisconsin is 9-2-1 ATS vs the Wolverines. Michigan is 8-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2008.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Michigan State blew numerous chances to pick up a big win at home last Saturday vs Arizona State. They outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards in the 10-7 loss. In the first half alone, the Spartans pushed inside Arizona State territory on 4 of their 5 possessions and came away with not a single point trailing 3-0 at half. For the game, MSU crossed the 50-yard line on 8 of their 10 possessions and scored 7 total points. Normally reliable place kicker Matt Coghlin, who had made 40 of his 48 career FG attempts entering the game, missed 3 field goals in this one including the potential game tying kick as time expired. The defense continued to play very well holding the Sun Devils to only 216 yards on 4.1 yards per play. ASU had just 140 total yards leading into their final possession, a 75 yard drive which ended in the game winning TD with 50 seconds remaining. The move in this game was off as the bettors pounded MSU as the line opened Spartans -12 and pushed all the way up to -15.5 at some spots by game time.

After losing at Stanford in their season opener, Northwestern had a week off before hosting UNLV as a 19 point favorite last Saturday. The Cats won 30-14 but failed to get the cover for the 2nd time this season (0-2 ATS). The offense is probably going to be a work in progress most of the season. They looked terrible at Stanford playing a full 53 minutes before scoring their first point. Last week vs UNLV, it took them just 3 minutes to score their first TD and they put up points on 4 of their 5 first half possessions. Three of those four scores were field goals as they took a 16-14 lead into the break. The Wildcats leaned heavily on the run with 50 attempts to just 25 pass attempts. Freshman RB Drake Anderson was the work horse carrying the ball 26 times for 141 yards. He is the son of Northwestern’s all time leading rusher Damien Anderson. He stepped in for starting RB Bowser who remains questionable for Saturday’s game. Clemson QB transfer, Hunter Johnson, continues to struggle completing just 48% of his passes for 165 yards. On the season he is now completing just 43% of his passes with 1 TD and 3 interceptions. The defense locked down after halftime holding the Rebel scoreless on 130 yards.

This line opened with MSU at a TD favorite and move to -9 by Monday morning. Northwestern has had MSU’s number as of late beating the Spartans outright 4 of the last 5 meetings, all as an underdog. Since 2002, MSU has been favored vs Northwestern 13 consecutive games – they are 4-9 ATS / 7-6 SU in those games.

CONNECTICUT at INDIANA (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hoosiers came into last week’s home game vs Ohio State with the thought they could hang with the Buckeyes. That hope was thrown out the window in a hurry in OSU’s 51-10 dominating win. The story of this game was simply the Buckeyes domination on the ground. They put up 306 yards on 42 carries for almost 8 YPC. The Hoosiers running game continued to be a major issue as they were only able to muster 42 yards on 31 carries. It’s been a problem all year as IU entered Saturday’s game ranked 94th nationally in rushing and after their OSU performance they dropped to 117th (out of 130 teams). The Hoosiers are averaging only 101 YPG on the ground and only 3.1 YPC. Not being able to run on a stout OSU defense is one thing but struggling a week earlier vs an FCS opponent (114 rushing yards vs Eastern Illinois) is a red flag. Back up QB Peyton Ramsey (last year’s starter) was forced into action when starter Michael Penix was declared unavailable due to an injury. Ramsey was on the run all afternoon with pressure from the Buckeye defensive front. Ramsey was sacked 5 times and the Buckeyes had an impressive 12 tackles for loss. He could be back under center this Saturday as Penix remains questionable for UConn game. The loss dropped Indiana to just 2-33-1 their last 36 games vs the Buckeyes.

This week could be a tough spot mentally for Indiana. After getting mauled by OSU, they move back to a non-conference game hosting a bad UConn team with a big game at Michigan State on deck. The Huskies are 1-1 on the season and gave another Big Ten program, Illinois, a run for their money two weeks ago before losing 31-23 in Hartford. UConn had a bye last week giving them a potential advantage vs an Indiana team coming off a physical Big Ten battle. The Huskies, however, have the same problem as IU in that they cannot run the ball. They are averaging just 2.7 YPC in their two games ranking them 121st nationally in that category. UConn has also lost 18 consecutive games vs FBS opponents dating back to the 2017 season! This is a rare spot for IU as they have been a favorite of -27 or more only FOUR times since 1980 (1-3 ATS).

BOSTON COLLEGE at RUTGERS (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Rutgers is 1-1 on the season and they come into this home game off a bye week. In week one they gave us a reason to believe they might be quite a bit better than last season when they finished the year with a 1-11 record. The Knights dominated a poor UMass team in that week one match up easily covering the 17 point number with a 48-21 blowout win. The offense put up 554 total yards which was a huge achievement for a team that averaged only 266 YPG last year (128th nationally). Well all of that optimism came crashing down in their week two game at Iowa. After breaking out offensively vs UMass, the Scarlet Knights were held scoreless on 125 TOTAL yards vs Iowa in a 30-0 loss. New starting QB McLane Carter, a Texas Tech transfer, threw for 340 yards and 2 TD’s vs UMass only to follow that up with just 28 yards passing on a mere 6 completions vs the Hawkeyes. The Iowa loss dropped Rutgers record vs Power 5 teams to an embarrassing 3-28 the last 3+ seasons under head coach Chris Ash.

On Saturday they host a BC team that comes in reeling off an unthinkable 48-24 home loss vs Kansas, a team that had lost 48 straight road games vs FBS opponents! The Eagles entered the game as 18-point favorites so they failed to cover the spread by an incredible 42 points. BC was 2-0 entering that game having beaten Virginia Tech & Richmond, both at home. This will be the Eagles first road game of the season. These two schools are just 250 miles apart and used to face each other every year as members of the Big East. However, with Rutgers moving to the Big Ten and BC to the ACC, this will be their first meeting since 2004. Since 2004, BC has been a road favorite of more than a TD just 10 times. They are 3-7 ATS in those games.

MIAMI (OHIO) at OHIO STATE (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
OSU continued to roll last week destroying Indiana on the road 51-10. The Buckeyes (-17) dominated the stat sheet as they were +263 yards and +15 first downs. In their 3 games this season vs Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, and Indiana, the Bucks have scored 138 points while allowing just 31. In those 3 wins OSU is +38 first downs and +739 total yards. Forget about the offense. We knew they’d be very good. It’s the defense that has us very impressed. They are completely shutting down the run this year allowing 57 YPG and 1.7 YPC. The defense as a whole ranks 9th nationally allowing only 3.85 yards per play. That’s a huge jump from last year when the defense was this team’s weak spot allowing 400 YPG which ranked them 68th nationally. If this team can continue to play shut down defense, they will be nearly impossible to beat.

This week they have been set as a massive 39-point favorite vs in-state MAC team Miami (Oh). The Redhawks are 1-2 with their lone win coming against FCS Tennessee Tech. In their two games vs FBS opponents (Iowa & Cincinnati) Miami has been outscored 73-27 and outgained by 433 yards. These two already have one common opponent in the Cincinnati Bearcats. OSU beat Cincy 42-0 outgaining them 235 yards on 7 YPP while holding Cincy to 4.7 YPP. The Redhawks lost to Cincinnati last week 35-13, they were outgained by 213 yards and put up just 3.5 YPP while allowing 5.4 YPP. The Redhawks do catch Ohio State in a sandwich spot with the Buckeyes coming off their Big Ten opener at Indiana and a game at Nebraska on deck. This is the first meeting since 2012 when OSU beat Miami 56-10 at the Shoe. Since 1980 the Buckeyes have been favored by more than 5 TD’s 23 times. They are a solid 14-9 ATS (61%) in those games. Miami Oh has been a dog of more than +35 only TWICE in the last 40 years (1-1 ATS)!

NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
It was tough to predict how the Huskers might respond after blowing a 17-0 lead at Colorado in a heart wrenching OT loss the previous Saturday. They bounced back in a big way destroying a solid Northern Illinois team 44-8. The offense hadn’t performed up to head coach Scott Frost’s standards in either of their previous 2 games but rolled up 525 yards in this one on 65 offensive snaps. Frost mentioned this week that while he was pleased, he thinks they can still play faster on offense. Big plays were the story for the Husker offense in this one as they had 11 plays of 17 yards or more including 2 plays of 60+ yards. Defensively they continue to shut down the opposition’s running game. They held NIU to only 74 yards on 32 carries. In their 3 games this season the defense is holding opponents just 2.18 YPR. A big improvement so far compared to last year’s defense which allowed 5.0 yards per carry. On Saturday the Huskers try and break an 8-game losing streak as they head to Illinois. Their last road win came on October 27th of 2017.

Just when you thought Illinois was heading in the right direction, they let everyone know they still have a lot of work to do. The Illini came into last week’s game vs Eastern Michigan with a 2-0 record. Situationally it looked like a good spot for Illinois as they were hosting an EMU team playing their 3rd straight road game and the Eagles were coming off a 38-17 drubbing at Kentucky. Illinois was a 7-point favorite but came up just short losing 34-31. The Illini were down 14 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game. They rallied to tie it late at 31-31 only to watch EMU kick a game winning FG as time expired. The defense, which was without a number of key players including 4 rotation players in the defensive front, was shredded for nearly 500 yards by a team that was averaging 289 YPG coming into the game. Head coach Tubby Smith said he hopes to get some of his defensive players back from injury this week. If not, it could be a problem vs a Nebraska offense that looked like they found their rhythm last week.

This line opened with the Huskers favored by 10.5 and quickly shot up to -13.5. These two have faced each other 8 times since 1985 with Nebraska going 7-1 SU / 6-2 ATS in those meetings. In 6 of those 8 meetings, the Illini failed to get to 20 points. On the other hand, the Huskers have topped 30 points in 6 of the 8 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Utah at USC
September 18, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Utah at USC
Venue/Location: L.A. Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 20, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1
Line: Utah -4, Total 51.5

It's the second Friday in a row that a Pac-12 team gets the Friday night spotlight, and this week it's a conference tilt between the Utes and Trojans.

For all the talk the Pac-12 gets about struggling to represent itself as a “true” Power Five conference on the national stage given they've got no “elite” team in their ranks, the conference enters the week with six schools ranked in the Top 25, and that's after USC fell out of the rankings after last week's loss at BYU. That was a tough loss to say the least for this Trojans team trying to climb back towards respectability on the national stage, it was a tough spot for them in general, on the road with a freshman QB Kedon Slovis making his first career road start.

The three INT's Slovis threw really hurt as it's hard to win at any level of football when you lose the turnover battle 3-0, and while they didn't lose any of the three fumbles they had too, USC was just all around too loose with the ball in Provo. USC will need to clean that up against a much better Utah team if they want a shot at winning on Friday night, and get what would be their first win against a ranked foe this year.

It is hard to erase the memory of those INT's that Slovis threw a week ago and it's decent support for Utah backers out there. But as I mentioned earlier, first true road starts for freshmen tend to come with some severe growing pains and Slovis wasn't immune to those at all. Utah's defense will present a much stiffer test then the brand of defense that BYU played, and that's another piece of support for Utah backers this week.

Yet, this game is back at The Coliseum and Slovis has been tremendous overall in his action on the field. Home field can mean more in the college game in general, but that's especially true when you've got a young QB at the helm. Even with the three INT's last week, Slovis has shown he's more then a capable passer at this level – which you can credit high school QB coach Kurt Warner with – and the friendly surroundings he'll be in under the lights should help mitigate potential mistakes. But as I said before, Utah's defense will look to be in Slovis' face all afternoon and confuse him with their looks to bait him into errors, and given the veteran-laden roster Utah has, it will be interesting to see how that ends up playing out.

At the same time, Utah and their QB Tyler Huntley will look to do what they did to this USC team a year ago – beating them 41-28 - in a game that wasn't really as close as that final score suggests. The Utes put up 550 total yards on offense and gave up just 205, which is nothing but more support for Utah backers this week.

However, Utah has yet to be tested in any sense in 2019, and as I touched on in this piece regarding Michigan, there is something to be said for teams having already faced adversity and understanding how they'll react in that scenario. USC understands that they would have likely had that BYU game had they been more diligent in protecting the ball, and that in terms of talent on the field, they are right there with Utah. Had last week's game in Provo ended in victory, this would have been a huge battle between ranked foes, and even though the Trojans don't have a Top 25 number beside their name now, they'll be right back in that group with a win this week.

Utah's still got unanswered questions about how they'll react when facing adversity or potentially trailing against a quality foe, as they've trailed for all of about five minutes so far this year. And while they did put a decent beating on the Trojans a year ago, things change quite a bit from season to season, and being in hostile territory never helps either. They are still 0-2 ATS this year despite two relatively easy wins, and even with about 70% of the support in the betting market already, the point spread has stayed relatively static. That's not a good sign either, and with 0-5 ATS run against a winning foe and after allowing fewer then 20 points in their last outing both active here, in terms of handicapping the market, there are a lot of warning signs littered out there for Utes backers.

Furthermore, the Pac-12's reputation of not being a player on the national stage stems from the idea that teams in this conference tend to beat up on one another and those losses by the higher ranked Pac-12 schools in those spots devalue the conference as a whole. Big picture, that's not necessarily a bad thing given that it suggests the bulk of the teams in the conference are fairly deep and evenly matched, because as the great Bill Walton never fails to remind us during basketball season, the Pac-12 is “the Conference of Champions.”

It would fit right into the Pac-12's M.O to see USC rise up at home in this spot and knock off a team that's ranked 11th in the country like Utah is, as Slovis and the rest of the Trojans offense clean up the sloppiness that plagued them a week ago.

The home side has won each of the past six meetings straight up as it is, and are 7-1 against the number going back a bit further. Slovis should be able to use last week's struggles as a great teaching moment to move forward in his career the rest of the way, and Utah is probably a bit to overvalued as it is, just based on the veteran roster that they have.

The Utes could easily stumble in their first road game of the year in a similar fashion to what we saw from USC a week ago, and it's not like the Trojans are the disaster of a program they were in 2018. So unless Mike Leach's concerns from his viral press conference this week are indeed true, and the Ute has upgraded to a rifle, I believe Friday night's game ends up going to the sword-wielding Trojans.

Best Bet: USC +4
Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 1-2 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

Michigan tries to change narrative
September 18, 2019
By The Associated Press

There is a strong temptation in college football to define teams early in the season, especially when a traditional power delivers a high-profile clunker.

That's where No. 11 Michigan is as the Wolverines head into the first really big Big Ten game of the season. They face No. 13 Wisconsin in Madison on Saturday. Last we saw coach Jim Harbaugh's team it was surviving an overtime scare at the Big House against Army.

As is the case with most blue blood programs - no pun intended - non-Michigan fans generally revel in the Wolverines' every misstep. And with Harbaugh, the coach college football fans love to hate, rooting against Michigan has never been more popular. It's as if everybody not wearing maize and blue is suddenly from Ohio.

As cringe-worthy as Michigan's new-fangled offense was against Army, inspiring a litany of doom-and-gloom takeaways, the Wolverines can flip that narrative and renew the playoff talk they opened the season with by handling a bunch of Badgers who have yet to allow a point.

The first three weeks of the season have been light on games matching ranked teams. There have been just three, none last week. There are that many this weekend, plus a few other teams (No. 10 Utah, No. 12 Texas and No. 16 Oregon) that want to be thought of as playoff contenders facing potentially tough conference tests.

The picks:

FRIDAY

No. 10 Utah (minus 3+) at Southern California

It's getting late early for the Trojans, who have not lost to the Utes at the Coliseum since joining Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011 ... UTAH 28-24.

Air Force (plus 8) at No. 20 Boise State

Falcons have played the Broncos well since they have been Mountain West rivals ... BOISE STATE 35-24.

SATURDAY

Charlotte (plus 41) at No. 1 Clemson

Tigers have two more sacks (14) through three games this season than they had at this point last season with one of the most decorated defensive lines in recent history ... CLEMSON 49-7.

Southern Mississippi (plus 38+) at No. 2 Alabama

Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa has thrown at least four touchdown passes in a game eight times, a school record. He has started 18 games in his career ... ALABAMA 56-14.

No. 7 Notre Dame (plus 14) at No. 3 Georgia

Another big game against an elite opponent that will be very difficult for the Irish to hang with ... GEORGIA 35-17.

No. 4 LSU (minus 23) at Vanderbilt

Commodores' pass defense has been terrible and LSU QB Joe Burrow has been one of the best passers in the country ... LSU 45-20.

Miami, Ohio (plus 39) at No. 6 Ohio State

Led by preseason All-America DE Chase Young (five), the Buckeyes are second in the nation with 14 sacks ... OHIO STATE 49-7.

No. 8 Auburn (plus 3+) at No. 17 Texas A&M

Tigers have won all three meetings in College Station since the Aggies joined the SEC ... TEXAS A&M 24-22.

Tennessee (plus 14) at No. 9 Florida

That matchup of Florida defensive line vs. Tennessee offensive line looks like a big advantage for the Gators ... FLORIDA 28-10.

No. 11 Michigan (plus 3+) at No. 13 Wisconsin

Wolverines have lost four straight at Camp Randall, dating to 2005 ... WISCONSIN 24-20.

Oklahoma State (plus 5+) at No. 12 Texas

Longhorns have lost four straight in the series, so maybe they're not really back until they take care of the Cowboys? ... TEXAS 34-28.

No. 15 UCF (minus 12) at Pittsburgh

UCF freshman QB Dillon Gabriel is averaging 11.6 yards per pass and has yet to throw an interception ... UCF 31-21.

No. 16 Oregon (minus 10) at Stanford

Cardinal have won three straight meetings, but the current version looks nothing like what we have become accustomed to under coach David Shaw ... OREGON 35-23.

UCLA (plus 18+) at No. 19 Washington State

Progress would be keeping it close into the fourth quarter for the Bruins at this point ... WASHINGTON STATE 38-21.

Old Dominion (plus 30) at No. 21 Virginia

You know what, Cavaliers fans? Your team hasn't been this good in so long, just go ahead of rush the field as much as you want ... VIRGINIA 38-7.

No. 22 Washington (minus 6+) at BYU

Cougars trying to make it three straight against Power Five teams ... WASHINGTON 31-23.

No. 23 California (plus 2) at Mississippi

Cal has the look of a one-week wonder in the rankings ... MISSISSIPPI 24-20.

Colorado (plus 7+) at No. 24 Arizona State

Good week for a breakout game for Suns Devils RB Eno Benjamin against a wonky Buffs run defense ... ARIZONA STATE 28-17.

SMU (plus 9+) at No. 25 TCU

Horned Frogs have won seven straight in the crosstown Battle for the Iron Skillet ... TCU 38-24, BEST BET.

TWITTER REQUESTS

Houston (plus 5) at Tulane, Thursday - (at)jefe172

This is the fourth game in 18 days for the Cougars ... HOUSTON 28-27, UPSET SPECIAL.

Utah State (minus 4) at San Diego State - (at)realjakemcneil

QB Jordan Love and the Aggies have the No. 1 offense in the Mountain West; Aztecs are No. 2 in defense ... SAN DIEGO STATE 28-27.

Appalachian State (plus 3) at North Carolina - (at)matthewepley

The wrong team might be favored here ... APPALACHIAN STATE 28-24.

Louisville (plus 6+) at Florida State - (at)R-Barnes407

Every week is a referendum on the Seminoles now ... FLORIDA STATE 31-23.

West Virginia (minus 4+) at Kansas - (at)OKTXARPoke

Last time the Jayhawks won three games in September was 2009, which was also the last time Kansas won more than three games in a season ... WEST VIRGINIA 28-21.

---

Last week: 15-8 straight; 15-8 against the spread.

Season: 54-17 straight; 36-32-2 against the spread.

Upset specials: 0-3 (straight up).

Best bets: 1-2 (against the spread).

[Udog]

By: Monty Andrews


WHO’S IN CONTROL?

When the Houston Cougars face the Green Wave in Tulane on Thursday night, fans will be treated to a contrast in styles.

The Cougars love to get the ball moving, evidenced by their 11th-place showing in total plays per game (79) a season ago. The Green Wave, on the other hand, prefer to keep things slow. They've averaged just 66.5 plays so far, ranking just inside the top 100 in that category.

And while the Cougars dominated last year's meeting – earning a 48-17 home victory – the game still finished below the total, the fourth straight time the teams have converted the Under.

Look for Tulane to grind out the clock in an effort to keep Houston quarterback D'Eriq King and the rest of the Cougars' weapons off the field. The total has already tumbled 4.5 points from an opening of 60.5, and we still like the Under.


ANOTHER ONE GONE

The Alabama Crimson Tide continue to deal with injuries on their defense corps, with standout defensive end LaBryan Ray the latest to make news.

Ray is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery on his foot earlier this week. He suffered the injury in last weekend's victory over South Carolina. He joins linebackers Dylan Moses and Josh McMillon on the sidelines, leaving the Crimson Tide relying on multiple freshmen as starters on the front seven.

Oddsmakers, however, aren't overly concerned, making Alabama a 39-point favorite for this weekend's showdown with visiting Southern Mississippi.

Look for Nick Saban to do whatever he can to keep his defense off the field this weekend. The Crimson Tide can ill afford another major injury among its defensive starters. We like the Golden Eagles to cover as Alabama focuses on self-preservation with the SEC schedule looming.


RUNYAN RETURNS

Michigan's beleaguered offensive line will be getting a major boost this week with word that left tackle Jon Runyan will return to action against Wisconsin.

Runyan, who has been out with an undisclosed injury, missed the Wolverines' first two games of the season but has returned to practice and should be good to go, barring a setback. His return will help boost a Michigan o-line that has struggled through the first two games. The Wolverines have already allowed six sacks after surrendering just 23 in 13 games all of last season, while the run game is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Runyan's presence should make life a lot easier for Shea Patterson against a Wisconsin defensive front that has racked up five sacks over its first two games. We're keen on Michigan surpassing its team total of 20.5.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Monty Andrews


WHO’S IN CONTROL?

When the Houston Cougars face the Green Wave in Tulane on Thursday night, fans will be treated to a contrast in styles.

The Cougars love to get the ball moving, evidenced by their 11th-place showing in total plays per game (79) a season ago. The Green Wave, on the other hand, prefer to keep things slow. They've averaged just 66.5 plays so far, ranking just inside the top 100 in that category.

And while the Cougars dominated last year's meeting – earning a 48-17 home victory – the game still finished below the total, the fourth straight time the teams have converted the Under.

Look for Tulane to grind out the clock in an effort to keep Houston quarterback D'Eriq King and the rest of the Cougars' weapons off the field. The total has already tumbled 4.5 points from an opening of 60.5, and we still like the Under.


ANOTHER ONE GONE

The Alabama Crimson Tide continue to deal with injuries on their defense corps, with standout defensive end LaBryan Ray the latest to make news.

Ray is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery on his foot earlier this week. He suffered the injury in last weekend's victory over South Carolina. He joins linebackers Dylan Moses and Josh McMillon on the sidelines, leaving the Crimson Tide relying on multiple freshmen as starters on the front seven.

Oddsmakers, however, aren't overly concerned, making Alabama a 39-point favorite for this weekend's showdown with visiting Southern Mississippi.

Look for Nick Saban to do whatever he can to keep his defense off the field this weekend. The Crimson Tide can ill afford another major injury among its defensive starters. We like the Golden Eagles to cover as Alabama focuses on self-preservation with the SEC schedule looming.


RUNYAN RETURNS

Michigan's beleaguered offensive line will be getting a major boost this week with word that left tackle Jon Runyan will return to action against Wisconsin.

Runyan, who has been out with an undisclosed injury, missed the Wolverines' first two games of the season but has returned to practice and should be good to go, barring a setback. His return will help boost a Michigan o-line that has struggled through the first two games. The Wolverines have already allowed six sacks after surrendering just 23 in 13 games all of last season, while the run game is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Runyan's presence should make life a lot easier for Shea Patterson against a Wisconsin defensive front that has racked up five sacks over its first two games. We're keen on Michigan surpassing its team total of 20.5.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at TULN 08:00 PM

HOU +4.0

U 58.0

[StarDust Bum]

QB King passes Tebow for passing/rushing TDs

Houston Cougars quarterback D'Eriq King set the FBS record for the most consecutive games with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown on Thursday night.

King, a senior, made it 15 straight games with each thanks to a 35-yard scoring run in the second quarter of a 38-31 loss to host Tulane.

That breaks a tie with Tim Tebow for the longest streak in FBS history. No other player has an active streak longer than three games.

Earlier Thursday, King had completed touchdown passes of 75 and 28 yards. For the game, he went 16-for-33 for 229 yards with two touchdowns and rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

King's streak started at the beginning of the 2018 season. After Thursday's loss, he has thrown for 3,645 yards and 42 touchdowns to go along with 986 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns during the streak.

Tebow, during his 14-game streak with the Florida Gators, threw for 3,287 yards and 33 touchdowns to go with 934 rushing yards and 24 rushing scores.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/19/2019.........0-2-0.......0.00%.......-11.00
09/14/2019......28-24-1.....54.00%.......+8.00
09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%.......-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%........-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.........-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%.......+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%...... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%...... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%...... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%....... -3.00

Totals............89-111-4...... 44.50%..... -165.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/19/2019............0 - 1..............-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.00
09/14/2019...........16 - 7.............+41.50............5 - 6................-8.00.............+33.50
09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................36 - 44...........-61.00............29 - 35.............-47.50..........-108.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

— Tulane 38, Houston 31- Green Wave scored winning TD with 0:03 left; wild ending.

— Why does the Green Wave wear light blue uniforms?

— Braves 5, Phillies 4- Austin Riley hit his 18th homer, but his first since August 2nd.

— Twins 8, Royals 5- Nelson Cruz homered twice for Minnesota.

— Indians 7, Tigers 0— Cleveland/Tampa Bay are tied for 2nd Wild Card in AL.

— Somehow, Don Mattingly is getting a contract extension from the Marlins.

Tweet of the Day
“Well, I don’t really know much about that. I just know that the guy basically quit. He quit going to class, he quit coming here. We tried to encourage him, we tried to help him. We had tried to set up counseling sessions with him to help him every way we could. And all those things are still available to him if he wants them, but he didn’t respond to any of the things, so until he responds, you just have to assume the guy quit.”
Nick Saban, on freshman DL Antonio Alfano, who is probably transferring

Friday’s quiz
Since 1970, only one NFL running back has THROWN two TD passes in the same game; who is it? (Hint: He is no longer playing)

Thursday’s quiz
Dan Marino played his college football at Pitt.

Wednesday’s quiz
Ben McAdoo was the Giants’ head coach before Pat Shurmur.

***********************

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) If Cam Newton can’t go for the Panthers in Arizona Sunday, backup Kyle Allen would get the start, creating an interesting sidebar to the game.

In 2015, Allen beat out Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray in a competition for the starting QB job at Texas A&M; both guys transferred after the season, first Allen to Houston, then Murray to Oklahoma.

Allen is from Arizona, so this would be a special day for him, should he start- he started one game last year, a 33-14 win in New Orleans in Week 17, a game Drew Brees sat out.

12) Jaguars 20, Titans 7:
— Tennessee fumbled a punt early on; Jaguars’ first TD drive was seven yards.
— Titans had 223 yards, 16 first downs in 2nd half, but scored only seven points.
— Mariota has been sacked 17 times thru the first three games; of the 2019 season; that is the most a single QB has been sacked through Week 3 since 2002.

— Jacksonville led 14-0 after 8:24 of play, kind of sat on lead rest of way.
— Jaguars sacked Mariota nine times.
— Fournette had 66 yards on 15 carries, but had 69 yards on one carry.

11) Two years ago, Gardner Minshew split QB duties for a 3-8 East Carolina team with a guy named Thomas Sirk, who had transferred to ECU from Duke. The year before, Minshew played behind Philip Nelson at ECU; haven’t heard much from Sirk or Nelson since, while Minshew is quickly making a name for himself with Jacksonville.

10) You think Mike Leach’s recruiting coordinator at Washington State is smiling this week? Luke Falk makes his first NFL appearance for the Jets Monday night, then three nights later, Minshew plays on national TV, lending credence to Leach as a quarterback guru.

9) Congrats to SF Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy on winning his 2,000th game as a big league skipper Wednesday night in Boston. Cooperstown awaits.

8) A gambler played a 2-team money-line parlay at a Caesars Palace sportsbook this week, risking $89,000 to win $4,050 on the Patriots and Cowboys.

I mean, the guy put up $89,000 to win $4,050; he mustn’t think much of Luke Falk.

He will be interested to learn that Miami is switching to Josh Rosen at QB this week, and that the Dolphins claimed DE Taco Charlton off waivers from Dallas, who they play Sunday.

7) Bronx Bomber pitcher Domingo German was placed on administrative leave under the joint MLB-MLBPA domestic violence policy. German is 18-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 153 strikeouts this season, so if he is lost for the playoffs, it is a big loss.

6) Red Sox are having a disappointing year, but Eduardo Rodriguez is having his best season; he has a 1.00 ERA in his last seven starts, and since May 1 has a 3.02 ERA in 26 starts.

5) UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero will retire next summer; the UC Regents unanimously approved a six-month extension of his contract Thursday.

This means the AD jobs at both UCLA and USC are open; pretty big jobs. The football coaches at both schools are on shaky ground. UCLA just hired a new basketball coach (Mick Cronin) and USC has a very good hoop coach (Andy Enfield).

Fresno State AD Terry Tumey, a former UCLA nose guard who played on the Bruins’ last team to win the Rose Bowl in 1986, is widely considered the favorite to succeed Guerrero.

Wait a minute; UCLA hasn’t won the Rose Bowl since 1986? Wow.

4) Quote of the Day, part 2:
“I also believe Eli Manning will get into the Hall of Fame. I also don’t believe he’s a very good quarterback.”
ESPN’s Ryan Clark

This has become a heated debate on Twitter; lot of mixed opinions, lot of strong opinions, but Clark played 13 years in the NFL, so his words carry weight.

3) Again, these are facts that helped ignite the Eli Manning/Hall of Fame debate:
Jim Plunkett: 72-72 regular season, 8-2 playoffs, two Super Bowls.
Eli Manning: 116-116 regular season, 8-4 playoffs, two Super Bowls.

My opinion is that Eli will eventually be a Hall of Famer, hopefully not on the first ballot.

2) Not to stir things up, but these are Philip Rivers’ career stats:

Philip Rivers: 119-91 regular season, 5-6 playoffs, no Super Bowls, 55,282 passing yards and hasn’t missed a game since 2005.

Manning’s/Rivers’ careers are forever linked because Archie Manning didn’t want his youngest son playing for the Chargers, who drafted Eli, then traded him to New Jersey for Rivers and a couple other draft picks, who became LB Shawne Merriman and K Nate Kaeding.

1) NFL games need fewer penalties; having ex-referees as TV stars in the booth tells you all you need to know— flags are too big a part of the game. College football games average more plays than NFL games, and far fewer penalties are called. Let the guys play!!!!

[Udog]

Total Moves - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Obviously the oddsmakers weren't to happy with the fact that I got out the broom for the sweep with these selections in Week 2, as they flipped that broom around and spanked my ass with the handle to sweep Week 3's plays into the loser's circle. That's twice this year that betting Alabama totals has burned me, but Nick Saban has never really been a man of the people anyways, unless you are cemented to your seat for all four quarters.

Backing the Clemson 'over' never came close, as the defending National Champs brought their best form on defense yet again, holding Syracuse to just 6 points in a 41-6 laugher. But when you're involved in games with the top two teams in the country on the field, having them show up on either side of the ball isn't exactly surprising.

It's on to Week 4's selections of total moves plays though, and one thing's for sure, I'll be on the sidelines for Alabama's game this week.

YTD: 3-3 ATS

Week 4 Total move to disagree with:

Michigan State/Northwestern from 39 to 38

Not the biggest move south by any means on this number, as this Michigan State Spartans team is looking to rebound from a highly disappointing first loss of the year. Getting away from East Lansing and all the discussion about them losing as a 15-point favorite probably is a good thing in terms of them rallying around one another as they open up Big 10 play.

While there is no question that Michigan State's defense is one of the best in the country this year, but it's the Spartans offense that unquestionably has to pick things up and start carrying their own weight. That won't be easy against a Northwestern team that's good on defense as well, but Mark Dantonio has had a knack for knowing how to move the ball against the Wildcats and I doubt that changes this week.

Each of the last three meetings between these teams has cashed 'over' tickets, with total point numbers of 48, 70 (OT game), and 94. Each time the two teams have come into the game with the expectation from the betting market that it will be a brutal defensive slugfest – not total closed higher then 43 – and the two schools completely flipped the script in that regard. With the way both defenses have played this season with neither of them allowing more then 17 points against in any one game, that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it?

Furthermore, Northwestern as covered the spread in all three of those games, have scored no fewer then 29 points themselves in any one of those contests, and just like all three of those contests, they are catching points (+9) again this week. You give a 9-point underdog 20+ points on their home field, and chances are this total of 39 will be left in the dark by the time the midway point of the 3rd quarter rolls around as 'over' bettors smile at is as they surpass it.

With the betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com showing a healthy majority (75%+) on the low side of this number, it's best to be on the side of history between these two teams repeating itself this week as we get a lot of points relatively again. Situationally, Michigan State's offense knows it needs to be extremely better to stop putting the burden of each week's result on their defense, while Northwestern won't shy away from doing what they have to Dantonio's defenses the past three years and take full advantage of their opportunities.

Week 4 Total move to to agree with:

UCF/Pittsburgh from 58 to 61

This is another minority play based on the betting percentages currently up on the site (75%+), and while it is easily understandable as to why there is healthy support for the 'under' in the Michigan State/Northwestern game, the case for it here is a bit puzzling.

Yes, Pittsburgh has been a great 'under' team dating back to the end of last year as they are on a 0-7 O/U run as a program, but how much success they expect to have against a UCF attack that's put up 45 or more points in every game this year can't be a lot. The Knights have surprised me with just how good their offense remains to be this season, and even though Pittsburgh's defense has looked good for the bulk of 2019 – the season opening 30-14 loss to Virginia was a tad rough – I believe you've got to expect another 40+ point effort from UCF this week.

Maybe it's the fact that Pittsburgh played in a slugfest type game against Penn State last week and that's still fresh in the minds of the majority of the betting market, but remember conditions in that game weren't ideal, and that rivalry does tend to be a war. I mean, Pittsburgh's defense did little to stop UCF in this game a year ago (45-14 UCF win) and based on that alone, you've got to figure that Pittsburgh knows they've got to adopt a much more aggressive offensive approach to have a chance at pulling off the upset this season.

Just in terms of game script, if you give the Knights somewhere in the 35-45 point range for this game as it's not hard to do given their offensive performances this year, a 10-11 road chalk line suggests that Pittsburgh will be able to put up 24-34 points themselves in many likely scenarios. The lowest of those ranges don't eclipse the current number – hence the total move up – but the highest of those ranges eclipses the current number by multiple scores. That's quite the margin of error you've got in a game where you are also going against the majority of the market seemingly, even if you are betting into a bit of a bad number currently.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Central Michigan-Miami, Fl.: 51 to 48
Tennessee-Florida: 52 to 49
Nevada-UTEP: 54.5 to 52

Up
Bowling Green-Kent State: 59.5 to 62
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Notre Dame-Georgia: 56 to 58.5

[Udog]

Utah at USC
Matt Blunt

Venue/Location: L.A. Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 20, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1
Line: Utah -4, Total 51.5

It's the second Friday in a row that a Pac-12 team gets the Friday night spotlight, and this week it's a conference tilt between the Utes and Trojans.

For all the talk the Pac-12 gets about struggling to represent itself as a “true” Power Five conference on the national stage given they've got no “elite” team in their ranks, the conference enters the week with six schools ranked in the Top 25, and that's after USC fell out of the rankings after last week's loss at BYU. That was a tough loss to say the least for this Trojans team trying to climb back towards respectability on the national stage, it was a tough spot for them in general, on the road with a freshman QB Kedon Slovis making his first career road start.

The three INT's Slovis threw really hurt as it's hard to win at any level of football when you lose the turnover battle 3-0, and while they didn't lose any of the three fumbles they had too, USC was just all around too loose with the ball in Provo. USC will need to clean that up against a much better Utah team if they want a shot at winning on Friday night, and get what would be their first win against a ranked foe this year.

It is hard to erase the memory of those INT's that Slovis threw a week ago and it's decent support for Utah backers out there. But as I mentioned earlier, first true road starts for freshmen tend to come with some severe growing pains and Slovis wasn't immune to those at all. Utah's defense will present a much stiffer test then the brand of defense that BYU played, and that's another piece of support for Utah backers this week.

Yet, this game is back at The Coliseum and Slovis has been tremendous overall in his action on the field. Home field can mean more in the college game in general, but that's especially true when you've got a young QB at the helm. Even with the three INT's last week, Slovis has shown he's more then a capable passer at this level – which you can credit high school QB coach Kurt Warner with – and the friendly surroundings he'll be in under the lights should help mitigate potential mistakes. But as I said before, Utah's defense will look to be in Slovis' face all afternoon and confuse him with their looks to bait him into errors, and given the veteran-laden roster Utah has, it will be interesting to see how that ends up playing out.

At the same time, Utah and their QB Tyler Huntley will look to do what they did to this USC team a year ago – beating them 41-28 - in a game that wasn't really as close as that final score suggests. The Utes put up 550 total yards on offense and gave up just 205, which is nothing but more support for Utah backers this week.

However, Utah has yet to be tested in any sense in 2019, and as I touched on in this piece regarding Michigan, there is something to be said for teams having already faced adversity and understanding how they'll react in that scenario. USC understands that they would have likely had that BYU game had they been more diligent in protecting the ball, and that in terms of talent on the field, they are right there with Utah. Had last week's game in Provo ended in victory, this would have been a huge battle between ranked foes, and even though the Trojans don't have a Top 25 number beside their name now, they'll be right back in that group with a win this week.

Utah's still got unanswered questions about how they'll react when facing adversity or potentially trailing against a quality foe, as they've trailed for all of about five minutes so far this year. And while they did put a decent beating on the Trojans a year ago, things change quite a bit from season to season, and being in hostile territory never helps either. They are still 0-2 ATS this year despite two relatively easy wins, and even with about 70% of the support in the betting market already, the point spread has stayed relatively static. That's not a good sign either, and with 0-5 ATS run against a winning foe and after allowing fewer then 20 points in their last outing both active here, in terms of handicapping the market, there are a lot of warning signs littered out there for Utes backers.

Furthermore, the Pac-12's reputation of not being a player on the national stage stems from the idea that teams in this conference tend to beat up on one another and those losses by the higher ranked Pac-12 schools in those spots devalue the conference as a whole. Big picture, that's not necessarily a bad thing given that it suggests the bulk of the teams in the conference are fairly deep and evenly matched, because as the great Bill Walton never fails to remind us during basketball season, the Pac-12 is “the Conference of Champions.”

It would fit right into the Pac-12's M.O to see USC rise up at home in this spot and knock off a team that's ranked 11th in the country like Utah is, as Slovis and the rest of the Trojans offense clean up the sloppiness that plagued them a week ago.

The home side has won each of the past six meetings straight up as it is, and are 7-1 against the number going back a bit further. Slovis should be able to use last week's struggles as a great teaching moment to move forward in his career the rest of the way, and Utah is probably a bit to overvalued as it is, just based on the veteran roster that they have.

The Utes could easily stumble in their first road game of the year in a similar fashion to what we saw from USC a week ago, and it's not like the Trojans are the disaster of a program they were in 2018. So unless Mike Leach's concerns from his viral press conference this week are indeed true, and the Ute has upgraded to a rifle, I believe Friday night's game ends up going to the sword-wielding Trojans.

Best Bet: USC +4

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 1-2 ATS

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

FIU at LT 08:00 PM
LT -7.0
O 51.5

UTAH at USC 09:00 PM
USC +3.5
U 53.5

AFA at BSU 09:00 PM
AFA +7.5
U 53.0

[StarDust Bum]

Backup QB Matt Fink leads USC past No. 10 Utah 30-23
September 21, 2019
By The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) Michael Pittman Jr. caught 10 passes for a career-high 232 yards and a touchdown from backup quarterback Matt Fink, who passed for 351 yards in Southern California's 30-23 victory over No. 10 Utah on Friday night.

Fink, a junior who nearly transferred last spring, went 21 of 30 with three touchdown passes for USC (3-1, 2-0 Pac-12) after taking over when freshman Kedon Slovis left with an undisclosed injury on the second play of the game. Fink mostly looked sharp as the third quarterback to play important snaps in four games for the Trojans, who lost starter J.T. Daniels to a season-ending knee injury in their opener.

Tyler Vaughns, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Pittman all caught TD passes from Fink, while Pittman had the fifth-biggest receiving yardage game in USC history. His remarkable 42-yard catch in the fourth quarter eventually led to a 4-yard TD run by Markese Stepp, who celebrated by handing the ball to Reggie Bush, the Trojans great attending the game as a broadcaster despite his NCAA-mandated disassociation from his school.

Devontae Henry-Cole rushed for an early touchdown and Cole Fotheringham caught a TD pass for the Utes (3-1, 0-1), who struggled after star running back Zack Moss left in the first half with an apparent shoulder injury. Utah still has never won at the 96-year-old Coliseum.

Tyler Huntley passed for 210 yards and ran for 60 more, but Utah committed 16 penalties for 120 yards and struggled to get key defensive stops against a green Trojans quarterback.

NO. 20 BOISE STATE 30, AIR FORCE 19

BOISE, Idaho (AP) - Hank Bachmeier threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, Robert Mahone rushed for a pair of scores in the fourth quarter, and Boise State pulled away in the second half.

Bachmeier's arm made up for a Broncos' running game that was ineffective until the fourth quarter. He hit CT Thomas on a 36-yard touchdown pass in the first half while getting crunched by a defender, and added a 28-yard TD toss to tight end John Bates late in the third quarter to give the Broncos a 17-13 lead.

Mahone added a pair of 10-yard TD runs in the fourth as the Broncos (4-0, 1-0 Mountain West) won their 20th straight conference opener.

Bachmeier completed 19 of 26 passes in another impressive performance by the freshman in just his fourth start.

Air Force quarterback Donald Hammond III had an 8-yard touchdown run in the first half and threw a 31-yard TD to Geraud Sanders late in the fourth quarter. Taven Birdow led Air Force (2-1, 0-1) with 67 yards rushing, but the second-best rushing attack in the country was held to 242 yards, more than 100 yards under its season average.


***************************************


Henderson's 3 TDs, Hale's 5 FGs lead Louisiana Tech to win
September 20, 2019
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RUSTON, La. (AP) Justin Henderson rushed for 141 yards and three touchdowns, Bailey Hale tied a program record with five field goals and Louisiana Tech beat Florida International 43-31 on Friday night.

Hale kicked field goals of 41, 25 and 29 yards in the fourth quarter to give Tech a 36-24 lead with 2:17 remaining. FIU snapped Tech's 16-0 scoring run with an 8-play, 72-yard scoring drive to get within 36-31 with 51 seconds left. But Amik Robertson ran back the ensuing onside kick 30 yards for a TD to seal it.

J'Mar Smith was 27-of-41 passing for 290 yards for Louisiana Tech (3-1, 1-0 Conference USA), which entered ranked 26th in the nation for passing offense at 294.7 yards per game. Hale also made five field goals last season against North Texas.

James Morgan, who didn't play last week because of an injury, threw for 394 yards with two touchdowns and one interception for FIU (1-3, 0-2).