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[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 1
Matt Blunt

Week of August 26th

With last week's piece focusing on what's now come and gone for Week of the NFL preseason, I'd like to bid adieu to the NFL for just a week. The first full opening week of college football is upon us this week, and Week 4 of the NFL preseason is just a week that's best to take off unless you are really into researching and reading up the bottom halves of every NFL team's potential depth chart. Instead, it's on to the collegiate world this week with the emphasis being on two specific conferences: the Pac-12 and the SEC.

These are two conferences that have been on opposite ends of the spectrum for the most part when in comes to discussing college football on the national stage the past few years, as the SEC is still the flag bearer for this sport in terms of overall depth, talent and churning out NFL-caliber players.

But chaos can be beautiful too, and while the Pac-12 gets called out for its parity and how they never have one/two really elite teams, once conference play gets going, Pac-12 games can be some of the most entertaining out there because of that same parity in regards to it being up in the air as to who will win.

Either way, there are some specific football programs from both conferences that have had good/bad runs in season openers the past few years, and they've drawn my eye for this week. And while trends are just simply a small piece of the entire picture, they can serve as a solid place to start in terms of game selection, so here are a few SEC/Pac-12 schools to hone in on as play on or against programs for this first game of the year.

Who's Hot

They'd better be wearing RED
Alabama (4-0 ATS)
Texas A&M (5-0 ATS)
Georgia (4-1 ATS)
Stanford (4-1 ATS)

Right off the bat I've probably got to make the distinction that Texas A&M actually wears maroon as to not upset Aggies fans, but that's a close enough shade to red for me to include them in this group. Besides, with a 5-0 ATS run going in season opener's the past five years, and a home game on Thursday coming up for Texas A&M as massive -33.5 point favorites vs Texas State, there is a Day 1 game for bettors to sink their teeth into further.

Furthermore, 'maroon' can be defined as a “brownish crimson” color which brings me to one of the other teams on this list in the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama has covered the number in each of their previous four season openers, and they've done so despite scheduling some 'supposed' tough opponents for themselves in that first game of a campaign. Louisville, Florida State, USC, and Wisconsin were all vanquished by Nick Saban's powerhouse program in season openers the past four years, and this week has Saban and the Tide laying 30+ against Duke. Considering Duke's in a bit of a transitional year with QB Daniel Jones moving on, bettors should probably not be afraid to lay all that chalk with Alabama this weekend. The spread has already been bumped a few points Alabama's way, and given that their average margin of victory against those quality foes in the past four season openers is still 32 points, blowing out a fresh-faced Duke team should be easily in the cards.

Of the other teams listed above, Georgia's laying 20+ on the road in a SEC rivalry game against Vanderbilt (who are on a 4-0 ATS run in season openers themselves) in a spot that might be best to stay away from, while a ranked Stanford team hosts a ranked Northwestern team (in coaches poll) is laying about a TD (-6.5) at home.

Stanford's going through a bit of a transitional phase this year too with Bryce Love having moved on, as it's on QB K.J Costello and a bunch of new faces to keep this proud program moving forward in the Pac-12. Given the schedule the Cardinal have – Northwestern, @ USC, vs Notre Dame only non-conference games – a SU and ATS win over the Wildcats later this week could propel Stanford on their way to one heck of a season. Recent history suggests we will get the best out of Stanford to start, and Northwestern as a fringe Top 25 team might be a little ambitious for Pat Fitzgerald's program.


Who's Not

The traditional 'basketball' schools
Kentucky (0-4 ATS)
UCLA (1-4 ATS)

I did think about adding Missouri's 1-4 ATS run in season openers to this list as well, but then the header would have to be Wizard of Oz related (Lions, Tigers, and Bears, Oh my) and even then it's hard to truly consider 'wildcats' as 'lions'. So it's just the two traditional basketball schools from these conferences that get the spotlight this week and both better be prepared to shine brighter than they have in recent season openers if they want to gain some respect in the betting market.

For UCLA, it's a road trip to Cincinnati as small road underdogs on Thursday, in a game that has already seen the Bruins take enough action to push them down and through that key number of +3.

UCLA opened up in the +3.5/4 range way back when, and is currently sitting at+2.5 everywhere. It's Year 2 for Chip Kelly's team, and one that should bring plenty of improvement for this Bruins squad, but historically slow starts in openers has to give pause on jumping on board the Bruins now.

Last year's season opener loss did come to this same Cincinnati team (26-17 loss) as double-digit home favorites for the Bruins, so the revenge angle is on their side, but having had this line move through that key number already, it's extremely hard to take the Bruins at +2.5 now based on a pure numbers perspective. With recent ATS history working against the Bruins as well, this could be one of those games that lands as a Cincinnati win by a FG in where UCLA's bad ATS run in season openers against the closing number continues. Keep an eye out for that.

Kentucky is at home in Week 1 laying 10.5/11 points to a visiting Toledo team that won't be a push over. Toledo is expected to compete for a MAC title this year, and with nine returning starters on the defensive side of the ball, Kentucky's QB Terry Wilson better be prepared to show some growth in his passing game skills right from the outset.

In fact, the MAC is still a conference that seemingly improves from top to bottom each year and gets treated like a doormat at times from some programs that are in bigger conferences but have suspect talent on the football field. Reputation on a name can only go so far, and Kentucky's in for a few changes this year as it is. That's not to say Toledo wins this game outright, but given the opponent, spread, and ATS historical history.

[Udog]

Utah-BYU landing plenty of Week 1 college football cash, as bettors hit Utes' odds
Patrick Everson

Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley missed the last five games of the 2018-19 season with a broken collarbone. But he's healthy now, and the Utes are 6-point favorites at Brigham Young on Thursday.

Week 1 of the college football season features a big Pac-12/SEC clash, but a lower-profile Pac-12/Mountain West rivalry game is getting much more attention from bettors. Covers checks in on the opening lines and odds movement for four key contests this week, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.

No. 15 Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars (+6)

Utah went on a 7-1 SU run (6-2 ATS) to win the Pac-12 South Division and land in last season’s conference title game, then lost a grind-it-out game 10-3 to Washington as a 4.5-point neutral-site underdog. The Utes fell to Northwestern 31-20 as 6.5-point favorites in the Holiday Bowl to finish 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS.

Brigham Young was barely bowl-eligible last year, with a 6-6 SU regular-season mark, but a more-than-respectable 8-4 ATS record. The Cougars then boatraced Western Michigan 49-18 as 10-point favorites in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

These instate rivals met in the regular-season finale last year, with Utah winning 35-27 at home but BYU cashing as a 10.5-point pup. Although the line on this year’s meeting – first posted on June 8 – tightened by a point to Utah -5 in the past week, money is going against the home team for Thursday’s 10:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

“All the money is on Utah, but that’s all square action. We’ve got that book in Wendover,” Bogdanovich said, noting William Hill’s shop on the Utah/Nevada border, less than two hours from Salt Lake City. “It’s a short drive. Sixty percent of our action on that game will come from Wendover. They bet like crazy. It looks like the biggest-bet game so far. Both teams are perceived to be pretty good.”
Pac-12 2019 college football predictions and best bets: Will a CFP contender emerge?


No. 13 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-3)

A neutral-site nonconference battle among top-20 teams could provide an early-season boost to College Football Playoff hopes. Auburn is coming off an 8-5 SU campaign (6-6 ATS), capped by a 63-14 beatdown of Purdue laying 3.5 points in the Music City Bowl.

Oregon went 9-4 SU last year (5-8 ATS), winning three of its last four regular-season games to land a spot in the Redbox Bowl. In that New Year’s Eve contest, the Ducks won a 7-6 snoozer as 1-point ‘dogs against Michigan State.

Auburn opened -3 on June 8 and ticked down to 2.5 a day later, but the Tigers moved to -3.5 in the past week.

“We’re dead even to it, but there’s not much money in the pot,” Bogdanovich said. “The masses usually don’t get involved this early, but what money we do have is two-way action.”

The Pac-12/SEC contest is at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.


Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-32)

Alabama, which has reached all five CFPs, opens the 2019-20 season with a neutral-site game at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Crimson Tide went 14-1 SU last year (8-7 ATS), with the only loss coming in blowout fashion in the CFP final, a 44-16 setback to Clemson as 5-point favorites. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back at the helm and is the Heisman Trophy favorites.

Duke won its first four games and five of its first six last season, then went 2-4 in the back half to narrowly nab a bowl bid. But the Blue Devils took advantage of the Independence Bowl spot, drubbing Temple 56-27 catching 3.5 points to finish 8-5 SU (7-6 ATS).

Alabama opened as monster chalk on June 8, but that hasn’t dissuaded bettors for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET matchup.

“There’s plenty of money for Alabama – points, parlays and moneyline parlays,” Bogdanovich said in noting the line is up to -34.5. “That’s one of the bigger-bet games of Week 1.”


UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats (-4.5)

Chip Kelly’s first year at UCLA was nothing to write home about, unless you like writing bad letters. The Bruins went 3-9 SU (5-6-1 ATS), unable to recover from an 0-5 start that just so happened to begin with a 26-17 upset loss to Cincinnati as 14-point home faves.

On the flipside, Cincy used that victory as a springboard to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS start and finished with one of the best years in school history, at 11-2 SU (7-6 ATS). The Bearcats wrapped up the season with a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech giving 5.5 points in the Military Bowl.

That said, bettors seem to think Kelly and the Bruins are worth supporting in this Thursday night road game, with a 7 p.m. ET kickoff.

“There’s money for UCLA,” Bogdanovich said of a line that opened Cincinnati -4.5 on June 8 and dropped to -3.5 within a couple of days. The Bearcats have been at -3 since July 24.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Odds to win Conference USA football title:

+$375— Florida Atlantic

4-1— Marshall, North Texas

+$725— UAB, FIU, Southern Miss.

10-1— Louisiana Tech

40-1— Middle Tennessee State

50-1— Western Kentucky

Quote of the Day
“He was like smiling at the end. That’s what helped me gain clarity and understand the situation, seeing him smile. I wish him the best. He knows that and we’ll talk longer than the days of either of our football careers. You know, he seemed happy and that’s all that really matters.”
Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett, talking about Andrew Luck

Tuesday’s quiz
Who was the Falcons’ coach the first time they played in the Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
Atlanta Falcons are 0-2 in Super Bowls; they lost to Denver, New England.

Sunday’s quiz
Mike Shula was football coach at Alabama before Nick Saban.

*********************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) NFL scouting isn’t easy; front office types make big money, with their decisions largely deciding whether teams win or lose.

With that in mind, here are QB’s taken in the 2012 NFL Draft:
Round 1 (1st pick): A. Luck – retired, played 86 games
1 (2): Robert Griffin III- Ravens’ backup
1 (8): Ryan Tannehill – Titans’ backup
1 (22): Brandon Weeden – out of football
Round 2 (57): Brock Osweiler – out of football

3 (75): Russell Wilson – Super Bowl champ
3 (88): Nick Foles – Super Bowl MVP
4 (102): Kirk Cousins – Vikings’ starter, makes $28M a year

Undrafted: Case Keenum— Redskins’ starter
Kellen Moore- Cowboys’ offensive coordinator

12) Golfers Dustin Johnson/Lucas Glover tied for last at the TOUR Championship Sunday; they both went home wth a check for $400,000. Pretty solid consolation prize.

11) Robbie Ray threw five shutout innings in Arizona’s 5-2 win in Milwaukee Sunday; he faced 21 batters, threw 103 pitches, which is an awful lot for a guy who didn’t allow a run. Usually the average pitches per batter is 3.6 or 3.7, not 5.0+.

10) Major League ballfields need more 8-foot high outfield fences; the most exciting play in baseball is an outfielder trying to rob the hitter of a home run.

9) Off the top of my bald head, I‘m thinking that the Broncos, Colts, Vikings will all be bucking the NFL’s pass-happy trend and will try to run the ball more this season.

Vic Fangio and Mike Zimmer are defensive coaches; defensive guys like to run the ball to protect their defense. Indianapolis is breaking Jacoby Brissett in as the new QB; they’ll try and lighten his load by depending on their improved offensive line and moving the ball on the ground.

8) Remember the movie Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and the kid with the Detroit Red Wings’ jersey who was Ferris’ friend? Haven’t seen that actor in 33 years that I know of, but he showed up on my TV in the HBO series Succession, which is about a horrendous bunch of rich people.

He wears a suit now, instead of the Gordie Howe jersey.

7) Baseball stuff:
— A’s DFA’d OF Nick Martini, brought up OF Seth Brown from AAA.
— A’s also put OF Stephen Piscotty (ankle) on the IL.

6) Why would FOX hire Urban Meyer as a studio analyst? The man has no personality, seems incapable of humor. He was awful analyzing games on ESPN. Don’t understand this.

5) I wonder if dogs enjoy having their pictures taken as much as it looks like they’re enjoying it.

4) Kansas City Chiefs signed QB Matt Moore to back up Patrick Mahomes; Chad Henne broke his ankle last weekend, so KC needed a solid backup, and Moore is that.

3) Over the last 25 months:
— Baltimore Ravens are 12-0 in exhibition games, Atlanta is 0-12.
— Ravens are 19-14 in regular season/playoffs; Atlanta is 18-16.

Some teams just try harder to win preseason games.

2) We talk about this too much now: “If I ain’t startin’, then I’ll be departin’…..’”

Sophomore QB Jake Haener wasn’t going to be Washington’s starter this year, so he will now transfer. Haener is from Danville, CA; his mom and grandfather both went to college at Washington, but he will leave the Huskies, sit this year out and be eligible to play wherever he goes in both 2020 and 2021. Hard to impress NFL scouts by sitting on the bench.

Washington’s new QB is Jacob Eason, who bolted to Seattle because he didn’t win the starting job at Georgia (sound familiar?)

1) Turns out that OJ Simpson is in a fantasy football league, and he drafted Andrew Luck an hour before the retirement story broke. Whoops.

[Udog]

Week 1 Upset Alerts
Matt Blunt

After these pieces became highly popular last year, we had to bring them back for the 2019 college football season, one that is about 48 hours from really getting going. Not only were these underdog pieces popular, they also ended up turning a profit in the end, going 22-18 ATS, although the bulk of that damage was done thanks to the highly successful run backing 20+ underdogs.

Hopefully we can find a bit more balance in terms of projecting ATS winners in the smaller underdog ranges, as chances are a 11-2 ATS run with the 20+ underdogs won't happen again. The goal is to always improve and keep producing winners, and hopefully that continues as these pieces pop up every week as the college football season goes on.

The first full opening week always brings a plethora of 20+ underdogs as late August-early September is still great for the cupcake business in college football for those teams that prefer to indulge in that practice still. The really good teams are realizing that they need quality non-conference wins on their resume as well, so there is some abandonment of loading up a team's early schedule with FCS and much weaker FBS teams, but non-conference time in college football brings plenty of significant chalk, and bettors better be able to back a few of these hefty underdogs because they do cover spreads.

So let's get right to this year's opening underdogs, as we may be a month or two away from “MACtion” but it is the MAC Conference that gets the bulk of the spotlight out of the gate this year.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Ole Miss (+5.5) vs Memphis
The Memphis Tigers should be a player again in the AAC when all is said and done, but even against an Ole Miss team that's in a bit of a transitional year with their highly talented WR core moving on and a freshman QB, this is still a step up in class in competition level for Memphis.

That's not to say the Tigers aren't ready for it, but this is a team that couldn't take advantage of beating UCF last year without their starting QB, and defensively there is still a lot to be desired with the Tigers. Mississippi is still an SEC team with eight returning on defense. SEC defenses are known to be stout in non-conference play no matter who the SEC team actually is, and it's that physicality that I'm not sure Memphis will be ready for out of the gates.

The market has already pushed this line down to +5,5 after opening at +6 and currently showing a healthy majority backing the Memphis Tigers as well. That's the first sign that this number might be too high and/or bettors are discrediting a rebuilding Mississippi team too much. As a program, Memphis is on a 1-9-1 ATS run against SEC foes which also suggests that facing any SEC opponent is a step up in class Memphis has struggled with for years now.

If I took away the team names and just told you that the SEC team was catching 5+ points on the road against an AAC team, chances are many would be looking to take the points with the SEC. Obviously it's not as simple as that as the individual teams do matter, but Ole Miss deserves more respect coming out of the gate, and hopefully the end result is as simple as backing the team from the much better conference.


Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Toledo +12 vs Kentucky
I touched on a possible reason for fading Kentucky this week given the struggles the school has had in season openers the past few years earlier in the week here, and that's always a nice piece to add to the puzzle of this play as well.

But similar to people potentially sleeping on Ole Miss and how good (or more specifically, won't be as bad) they are, Toledo is a team that should make plenty of noise in the MAC, and Kentucky's got their own transitional period to deal with on the team this year.

Kentucky QB Terry Wilson will be called upon to be a much better passer from the outset this season, as there will be no more heavy reliance on Benny Snell out of the backfield. The Wildcats defense will still be the strength of this team, but that could easily take a step back too, as it's still just Week 1 remember and it's going to take some time for this Kentucky team to develop and reach it's full potential.

Toledo is a team that's loaded with veteran, returning experience basically across the board on offense, as there are 7 returning starters on offense for them – including their QB Michell Guadagni returning from injury – and all of them are seniors. That type of experience will serve Toledo well in going into Kentucky on Saturday, and with the market move already on Toledo in a similar fashion to what we've seen on Ole Miss – majority backing Kentucky, spread moved Toledo's way from +13.5 to +12 – this is another underdog move worth following.


Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 0-0 ATS

Miami (Ohio) +21.5 vs Iowa
The theme basically remains the same here, as I'm not ready to believe in an Iowa team to win by more than 3 TD's out of the gate, as this is a program that doesn't seemingly blowout anyone.

Iowa enters the year ranked in the Top 25, and as part of the highly intriguing Big 10 conference, it will be interesting to see where Iowa's season ultimately shakes out. But I'd venture a guess that they won't end up ranked when all is said and done, even if they do avoid some potential powerhouses in Michigan State and Ohio State on the season.

But this game against Miami (Ohio) is one right before Big 10 play essentially begins for the Hawkeyes with Rutgers coming to town next week. There really is no looking past Miami Ohio in terms of looking ahead to Rutgers, but every conference game is going to be critical in the Big 10 for programs that believe they've got a shot at winning the conference, so there is always the notion that Iowa could build a big lead early here and then put things on cruise control to stay healthy going into next week. Covering through that backdoor is a big part of these 20+ underdogs hitting, and I expect that door to be open through the entirety of this one.

[Udog]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
Joe Nelson

While college football had a brief preview last Saturday with two compelling and competitive games, the season opens more officially Thursday night with six games scheduled. Here is a look at the two ESPN contests with a pair of closely-lined battles in rematches of tight games last season.

UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats
Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 29, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Cincinnati -3, Over/Under 60½
Last Meeting: 2018, Cincinnati (+14) 26, at UCLA 17

The highly anticipated return of Chip Kelly to the college football sidelines was spoiled on the opening college football weekend last season by the Cincinnati Bearcats. UCLA had a promising start in the game taking advantage of good field position to lead 10-0 in the first quarter but by halftime Cincinnati was up 17-10. The game was tied into the fourth quarter before a forced fumble resulted in a safety and Cincinnati would put the game away for one of the biggest upsets of the first week of the 2018 season.

UCLA started Michigan transfer Wilton Speight in that game but he was injured and freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over. He wound up playing the bulk of the snaps in the next five games for the Bruins before losing playing time late in the season to Speight, who has been in 49ers camp this August. Thompson-Robinson is the expected starter for UCLA this season and he will look to improve on marginal passing numbers with a 58 percent completion rate last season for only seven touchdowns. He also managed only a net gain of 68 yards on the ground last season despite Kelly being known for using quarterbacks in the running game as well.

The final record for UCLA last season was 3-9 but the Bruins did win three Pac-12 games including beating rival USC in November. They also were very competitive in three other single-score losses in league play including a seven-point loss to eventual Pac-12 champion Washington. UCLA will again play an extremely difficult non-conference schedule this season after losing to three teams that combined to win 35 games last season but this year’s Pac-12 draw is more favorable with Oregon and Washington absent from the North.

In Luke Fickell’s second season with Cincinnati the Bearcats improved from 4-8 to 11-2 including a bowl win over Virginia Tech. One of Cincinnati’s losses came in overtime but in the big late season showdown with UCF they were blown out with a 38-13 result to fall short in the difficult AAC East race. This year’s schedule will be much more challenging even if the Bearcats can make a case for being an even better team. Cincinnati will draw Ohio State in non-conference action next week in Columbus while they must play Memphis and Houston from the AAC West, teams they did not have to play last season.

Long-time Cincinnati starting quarterback Hayden Moore did start last season’s game with UCLA but was replaced early in the game after taking two sacks in five plays including a fumble that handed the Bruins the early advantage. Desmond Ridder took over to lead the win for the Bearcats and played substantially the rest of the season as the team’s main quarterback, winding up with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions as well as rushing for more than 500 yards.

Cincinnati’s success last season in conference play came due to its defense which allowed an AAC best 139 points in eight games for an average of just over 17 points. That average was just over 14 points per game allowed against the teams other than UCF, and that even includes two overtime contests. In great contrast UCLA allowed more than 34 points per game last season, albeit through one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. The 26 points allowed in the loss to Cincinnati was technically the second best defensive scoring game of the season for UCLA.

In last year’s game UCLA posted 4.6 yards per rush and had a stronger yards per pass average compared with Cincinnati, finishing the game with two more yards in the box score overall. The turnovers were even and the penalty count was close as well but field position wound up being critical with each team having two short scoring drives of 36 yards or fewer.

Cincinnati can survive a loss next week to remain in the conversation for the top Group of 5 team bid but they need to win this game and maintain a run of 17 straight S/U wins in the season home opener. For a UCLA program looking to improve in stature this will be a big win to elevate its postseason prospects and improve on a 2-15 S/U record on the road the past three seasons.


Utah Utes at BYU Cougars
LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 29, 10:15 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Utah -5, Over/Under 48
Last Meeting: 2018, at Utah (-10½) 35, BYU 27

Utah has been consistently successful under Kyle Whittingham who is the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12, even though Utah has only been in the Pac-12 since 2011. His career record is 120-61 and the Utes have had five straight winning seasons, while winning the Pac-12 south for the first time last year. The expectations continue to grow for the program in a potentially wide-open race out west with the Utes opening the season in the top 15 of the polls.

Utah closed the regular season with BYU last November and managed to erase a 20-0 deficit to come back and win. It is worth noting that the Utes clinched the Pac-12 South the prior week and had their first appearance in the Pac-12 championship six days following this rivalry game and that perhaps showed in the slow start. The final score was misleading as BYU had a 357-296 yardage edge and Utah added a late touchdown after BYU fell a yard short of converting a 4th down on its own side of the field. Utah had a field goal blocked but also had a pick-6 that cut into the 20-0 deficit to start the game.

The other caveat is that Jason Shelley started the game for Utah at quarterback as a freshman that had played in only two prior games as Utah was without Tyler Huntley as well as last year’s top running back Zack Moss for the game. Huntley had produced very solid numbers the past two seasons and is healthy and one of the top returning leaders in the conference, and Moss is also back as the lead back on the team. Top receiver Britain Covey also appears cleared to play for the Utes after recovering from knee surgery.

BYU had some ups-and-downs last season with a 3-1 start that included wins at Arizona and then at Wisconsin. BYU was blown out in the next two games and wound up losing four of the next five before sneaking into the bowl picture at 6-6, where they soundly defeated Western Michigan. The Tanner Mangum era at BYU is over as despite some nice moments the long-time starter was a consistent turnover risk. Zach Wilson took over midseason as a freshman last season and wound up with good numbers, albeit mostly facing some of the lesser teams on the season schedule.

Playing as an independent BYU’s opportunities against major conference teams come early in the season and they have a heavyweight path in the first half of the season facing Utah, Tennessee, USC, and Washington in the first four games, though three of those games will be in Provo. Add in contests vs. Toledo, South Florida, Boise State, and Utah State in the next block of the schedule and getting back to .500 is far from a given for this team in the fourth season for Kitani Sitake, who is 20-19 in his career.

BYU outscored foes 354-278 last season but the unbalanced scheduled meant a few blowouts. This contest carries great weight as a long-time rivalry with this year’s game actually the 100th all-time meeting between these nearby schools. Utah owns a substantial edge in that ledger including eight consecutive wins with the last BYU victory coming in 2009. Each of the past six Utah wins has come by eight or fewer points as a close game has been the norm in recent years.

The stakes are high in this year’s ‘Holy War’ as BYU seems likely to be dogged each of the next three weeks as a 0-4 start is certainly possible. For Utah a chance to breakthrough on a national level this season seems attainable with this game being one of three most dangerous road games on the season. The Pac-12 draw misses both Stanford and Oregon for a preferable path as a double-digit win season is realistic and running the table isn’t out of the question for an experienced group if they can first get by their historical rival.

Other Games Thursday

Georgia Tech at Clemson
Clemson will open up its defense of last season’s national title in a game that many won’t be able to see with the launch of the ACC Network with few active providers carrying the new channel. The spread doesn’t suggest a compelling game in the debut for Geoff Collins leading Georgia Tech but Clemson did lose to the Yellow Jackets in 2014 and the past two regular season defeats for the program were unassuming contests in which the Tigers were at least three-TD favorites.

Florida International at Tulane
The Panthers won as a double-digit underdog hosting this matchup two years ago and this closely-lined contest will be an important win for the victor in a battle of a pair of programs potentially headed to the bowl bubble by season’s end. Both teams have difficult non-conference games ahead as this will be a big swing game for teams looking to take another step forward.

Texas State at Texas A&M
Jake Spavital is the new Texas State head coach and he was an assistant at Texas A&M for three seasons under Kevin Sumlin. The Bobcats project as one of the teams at the bottom of the FBS rankings but this was a fairly competitive team with several narrow losses last season. Texas A&M will likely have few games like this taking on one of the nation’s toughest schedules in year two for Jimbo Fisher.

Kent State at Arizona State
True freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels will be worth watching as the new starter for Arizona State, a program that should remain in the Pac-12 South mix in year two under Herm Edwards. Kent State played up-tempo last season for Sean Lewis and brings back a lot of experience following a tough 2-10 campaign that did feature great strides offensively compared with the 2017 numbers.

[Udog]

Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt

We've got to wait a week before we get those stand alone Friday night affairs in college football this year, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as the opening Friday of the season is never short on action. This year we get eight games of FBS action to help further along that great first weekend of college football, and with the market place geared up for these games for months now, all eight will see significant action.

However, with seven of the eight games having double-digit favorites currently listed, how competitive these eight games on Friday end up being is up for debate. Three of the seven teams laying double-digits are doing so on the road, with Big 10 teams Wisconsin and Purdue being two of those three. Michigan State is another Big 10 team in action, laying 20+ and climbing at home against Tulsa.

With plenty of action available out there, there are a few games that deserve at least some discussion, so let's take a look at a few different spots out there on Friday night.

Massachusetts at Rutgers (-15.5), Total 55.5

Rutgers as a double-digit favorite? Is it warranted?

It's not often that Rutgers gets to be laying points against anyone in a given year, but they do tend to be double-digit chalk at least once per season, and it's usually in these early season games against FCS competition often times. U Mass moved up from that classification early on in this decade, but they are still far from competitive and that will likely be the case in 2019 as well.

It's still Rutgers laying this big number though, and it's one that's been bet up since opening around -12. Rutgers is not expected to be all that competitive in the Big 10 either, but early action and market adjustment suggests laying it with Rutgers is the way to go. After all, they are 3-2 ATS the past four years as a double-digit favorite (2-0 ATS last two seasons), and the two ATS defeats were by the hook at -13.5 in a 13-point win, and a 38-point victory that fell short of covering -42. Rutgers may not be a great upset candidate in Big 10 play, but when they are projected to win easily, that's what they tend to do.

Definitely tough to lay it now with the best of the number long gone and it still saying “Rutgers” beside that point spread, but don't be surprised to see Rutgers feeling extra confident going into Iowa next week off a blowout 20+ point win this week.

Oklahoma State (-14.5) vs Oregon State, Total 74

Too far to travel for Oklahoma State out of the gate?

The betting market has already shown support for Rutgers and their chalk this week, but the same can't be said for Oklahoma State and their chalk out on the road in Corvallis. An opening line of -16.5 saw quick resistance at -17, before even more action started to settle on the Beavers, knocking it down to it's current state of -14.5. That's a move that does look a bit more significant then it really is – moves tend to be multiple points between the key numbers of -14 and -17 – but is this move going to be the right one?

You never know how the actual game will play out, but on the surface, taking a home dog at more then two TD's against a team that's got to travel a long way and has a history of shooting itself in the foot at times does make a lot of sense. But then it puts you on this Oregon State Beavers program who's likely to struggle again this season.

The Beavers do have more experience on offense that will help them be a bit more competitive in the end, but not necessarily the firepower that OK State brings to the party. With a total in the mid-70's, can you really trust that Oregon State will score 30+ here? Oregon State managed to hit that mark in their first three games a season ago vs Ohio State, Southern Utah, and Nevada, but it's not a thing I'd count on regularly from this team, even if it is against an OK State team that gave up 32.5 points/game a season ago.

It still is the Cowboys on the other side of the field though, and they are no strangers to losing games outright as multiple score favorites. It is a long way for them to travel to not really increase the standing of their potential 2019 resume much (it may be a Pac-12 team, but it's still Oregon State), and if the offense doesn't find itself in sync, can a defense that's been bad for years really carry the load? Not something I'm willing to risk a unit on to find out, as this game could end up landing rather close to either side of this current number.

Colorado State vs Colorado (-13.5), Total 57

The annual tradition of Colorado and Under in this rivalry game

The Colorado/Colorado State game has opened up the season for these two programs in nine of the past 11 years, but as is the case whenever these two meet up, support for Colorado and the 'under' always takes center stage.

While totals for some of these games have been out for weeks and line moves over that kind of time span are going to generally be greater, this total opened up at 64.5 at the beginning, and apart from a blip of 'over' money a few days ago, it's all 'under' money on this total. Considering that of those past 11 matchups between these two instate rivals, the 'under' has gone 10-1 against the number, it's easy to see why that side of the total is getting support. The hatred seems to never take a summer break for these schools and they bring it in terms of physicality every year. Oddsmakers continue to put out totals that get pounded to the 'under' and keep having to pay out.

Backing Colorado ATS is the yearly tradition as well, and with a 7-3-1 ATS record the past 11 years in this game – including entering this year on a 3-0 ATS run – the Pac-12 team has lived up to the general belief that nearly all Power 5 conference teams should be able to beat the non-Power 5 schools. This spread has really only seen Colorado money since coming out at -11, and we could end up seeing this game close at greater than two TD's.

However, eventually one of these initial numbers that oddsmakers put out on this yearly contest is going to be more accurate then the market continues to think, and of determining whether to go against the recent runs of Colorado and the 'under' in these games, it would be the total streak that I believe will get snapped.

Colorado is going to be much more consistent on offense this year, and the defense will continue to not be great. Colorado State is in a similar position this year as well, so when you've got the strengths of both sides going up against the weaknesses on both sides, chances are siding with the former will work out better.

Colorado State already gave up 42.5 points per non-home game last year, and last year's game, despite cashing the 'under' easily with a 45-13 score staying well below the 65.5 total, that final score this season would now hit current 'over' bets. It's not like it's rare for these CFB totals with major moves to land somewhere in the middle of those moves, leaving a lot of initial steam chasers left in the dark.

But having hitting that key number of 57 (and even lower in some places), I think we see these two rivals bring out the points this year, in a game that in all likelihood results in another Colorado win.

Best Bet: Over 57 points

[StarDust Bum]

Utah takes new offense into state rivalry
August 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

PROVO, Utah (AP) No. 14 Utah heads into the 100th game of the Holy War rivalry with BYU sporting a new-look offense headlined by a familiar playmaker.

Quarterback Tyler Huntley has thrived in new offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig's scheme throughout fall camp and he has the right skills to run it smoothly. Before missing the final five games with a broken collarbone, Huntley tallied 1,788 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing 64% of his passes last season.

''He's just soaking in everything Andy has to say to him,'' Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. ''He's done a great job of assimilating that and putting it into practice. The skill set Tyler has and what Andy is going to do with him line up. It's a great fit.''

Utah's offense will count on Zack Moss and the other running backs to carry a big load. Still, there are enough targets in the passing game to keep defenses honest. Britain Covey is a proven threat in the slot while receivers like Demari Simpkins, Solomon Enis, and Jaylen Dixon can stretch the field.

Huntley likes what he saw from his receivers throughout camp. It has given him confidence Utah's offense could be as tough on opponents as the team's defense.

''Everybody has been doing their job, making plays when their number is called,'' Huntley said. ''That's what I like about our offense.''

BYU is also expecting to make an offensive leap under Zach Wilson in his second season. Wilson offered a snapshot of his potential in the 2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl when he completed all 18 pass attempts for 317 yards and four touchdowns in a 49-18 victory over Western Michigan.

Wilson studied film of NFL stars like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Drew Brees during the offseason while he recovered from shoulder surgery. He even got a rare chance to work out with Brees.

''(I was) trying to increase my mental game,'' Wilson said. ''Going over some NFL tape and just trying to learn from guys that have done it before and been through it all.''

Here are other things to know as Utah and BYU meet Thursday night:

FRESH START

In his final college season, BYU running back Ty'Son Williams is getting another chance to make a big splash in the backfield. Williams joined the Cougars as a graduate transfer over the summer after spending two seasons at South Carolina and earned the top spot on the depth chart, beating out top returning rusher Lopini Katoa. He appeared in 20 games for the Gamecocks, totaling 799 yards and five touchdowns on 165 carries.

The senior played in just eight games last season after injuring his hand. He's not concerned with his durability.

''You can't really control injuries,'' Williams said. ''None of the football players here go to sleep and wake up thinking we're going to get injured. You just take it a game at a time and also just try to do what you can to be competitive.''

READY TO ROLL

Whittingham confirmed this week that Moss and Covey will play Thursday.

Questions had lingered about whether they would be sidelined for the season opener.

Moss suffered a hand injury and sported a cast during fall camp. Covey went through controlled reps while he worked his way back from a torn ACL suffered in the Pac-12 championship game.

OPENING SUCCESS

BYU and Utah have a recent history of opening seasons on a positive note.

The Utes have won 11 consecutive openers, starting with a 25-23 victory over Michigan in 2008. Utah is 12-2 in season openers overall during Whittingham's tenure.

The Cougars are 15-5 in their past 20 openers. BYU beat a dozen Power 5 teams in those contests. Overall, the Cougars carry a five-game winning streak in season openers into Thursday's game.

QUEST FOR PERFECTION

Utah is hogging the spotlight heading into the season. The Utes are a preseason pick to win their first outright Pac-12 championship.

BYU isn't drawing much attention after a seven-win season. The Cougars are confident they can change that even while opening the season with four straight games against Power 5 opponents.

''We expect to be a really good team and we want to be a really good team,'' tight end Matt Bushman said. ''We want to go undefeated this year.''

[StarDust Bum]

Total Moves - Week 1
August 28, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 1 Total Moves
The first full weekend of college football always brings some significant movement in totals numbers. Lines have been out for much longer which aids in that regard, but the first full month, especially the first week, is more of a feeling out process with where numbers open and ultimately close. It's a good time of year to try and get out and be ahead of some of these moves if you see and edge you really like, or wait on a game if you see it best to go against a big move.

Those two scenarios are the topic of this piece, and while it's tough to use the words 'correct' and 'incorrect' line moves at this juncture – again a feeling out process in the first few weeks – there is always going to be a few moves to agree with and a few that appear best to be going the other way.

Week 1's betting market has already shown some of those, and while it's tough to get down on the “agreeable” move and a much worse number, with all the in-game betting out there now you can use the info that way if there is some early action (or no action) to push the total back closer to the opener. So just keep that in mind for the second game in this piece, but for now it's about starting with the Week 1 total move that should be second guessed.

Week 1 Total move to disagree with:

Duke/Alabama from 61.5 to 57
This move hasn't been all straight 'under' money, and the 61.5 was the original opener back in July – it's been fluctuating between 58.5 and 57 for about 10 days now – but one of the best times to catch an 'over' in Alabama games is in the first game of the year.

Saban's Crimson Tide teams have become known for the 48-6 victory that leaves total bettors on both sides of the number sweating a lot. Taking 'overs' in general in 'Bama games can be difficult because of how suffocating their defense can be, and you do tend to need both teams on the football field to contribute to hit 'over' plays. It's why you will likely see plenty of 'under' money in Alabama games right off the opening numbers, just to see how far the market it will adjust.

But starting in 2008 – Saban's second year at Alabama – the Crimson Tide are 7-2-2 O/U vs the closing line in season openers, and have scored at least 33 points in all but one of those contests. They put up 40+ in nearly half of those 11 games (5), and averaged 39.5 points per game during the entire span. That's not a resounding ringing endorsement because something like a 40-6 game still leaves the 'over' 10 points short. But the other two times they were favored by 30 or more since 2008, Alabama put up 48 points both times. Give them that many points on the scoreboard and Duke doesn't have to pull that much of their weight to get up and over 57 points.

And there may not be a “better” time of year to get a few points up on Alabama as a much weaker foe. Saban's teams (during that same time period from 2008's opener on) have allowed 12.2 points per game in season openers, and allowed at least 10 points in seven of those 11 games.

With 'Bama LB Dylan Moses now gone for awhile, the Tide now have to switch up who calls the signals out on defense and that will bring some growing pains with it. It's not going to hurt Alabama greatly in this game, or likely however many weeks it takes them to work out those kinks, but it could easily hurt them enough to give up multiple scores to a Duke team that understands it's got to take some shots. The best friend of big plays is miscommunication on defense, and Duke gets just one of those and an 'over' ticket is looking alright.

Alabama would name their score against a Duke defense that's hoping for improvement from a lot of returning starters, and if Duke can put up 10+ points early on 'Bama it only forces the Tide to make that number greater in their “name the score” game. Seeing this game land somewhere right between the current total and the opener in July would not be shocking at all, as 52-7 sounds a lot like an Alabama score in Week 1 doesn't it?

Week 1 Total move to agree with:

Oregon/Auburn from 58 to 55.5
The highest profile game of Week 1 in terms of rankings is this Ducks/Tigers game, and I hate to say it Ducks fans, we've seen this story before. Not only specifically with this Oregon Ducks program, but with any Pac-12 team that goes and ventures out to another Power 5 opponent that's known for size/speed and physicality on defense. Oregon dealt with it last year against Michigan State in their Bowl game that ended up in a 7-6 final, Stanford and Pitt played to a 14-13 score in their Bowl game, and Cal and TCU needed OT to help them finish with 17 total points in their Bowl game.

The notion that the Pac-12 is 'soft' is probably not true in the end, but those kinds of beliefs and views don't come about without some speck of truthfulness in there. Now those low scores in last year's Bowl games came about for a variety of other reasons as well, but maybe it's a case of these Pac-12 teams wanting to shed that 'soft' label – especially on defense – and go out and play stout defense of their own. Oregon and Stanford still won those low-scoring affairs, and as much as Ducks fans may want to believe their best path to a victory here is in a shootout 35-30 type game, chances are it will be Auburn's defense who is more likely able to get that key defensive stop late in that style of contest. The Ducks defense will be out to bring it early and prove they are more than worthy of their Top 15 ranking.

The same can be said for Auburn's defense who has no doubt heard plenty about Oregon QB and Heisman hopeful Justin Herbert. Herbert came back to school to play and perform well in the biggest games at the collegiate level and this is his first opportunity in 2019 to do so. But Auburn can help their own cause in a big way by making a point to contain/harass/frustrate Herbert all game long to at least slow down Oregon's desire to play fast.

Auburn's defense only gave up 19.2 points per game a year ago, and they've got seven returning starters from that unit back, including their entire secondary. It will be on the backs of those DB's in the back end that Auburn makes life tough for Herbert in this game, with 50 points being around the range this one tops out.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Utah State-Wake Forest: 62.5 to 59.5
Colorado State-Colorado: 58 to 55.5
Eastern Michigan-Coastal Carolina: 55.5 to 53
Boise State-Florida State: 54 to 51.5
Miami-Ohio-Iowa: 49.5 to 47

Up
Wisconsin-South Florida: 56.5 to 59.5
Akron-Illinois: 56 to 61
Toledo-Kentucky: 59 to 62
Mississippi State-Lafayette: 57.5 to 60

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 1
August 27, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, AUG. 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

UCLA at CINCINNATI...Fickell 4-2 as home chalk LY, though Cincy only 3-8 in role previous three seasons. Bearcats dropped 5 of last 7 vs. spread in 2018 despite fine 11-2 overall SU mark. Chip only 5-7 vs. line in Bruin debut LY though 3-2 as road dog. Bruins no winning spread season since 2013 (23-39 vs. points since 2014).
Slight to Cincinnati, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Collins GT debut! Collins covered 6 of last 8 as dog with Temple, and was 14-7-1 last 22 vs. line with Owls. Paul Johnson was 14-8-1 as dog with Jackets 2014-18 but lost and failed to cover last four vs. Tigers (0-3-1 vs. line). Dabo just 3-3 last six laying 30 or more but is 13-8-1 as DD chalk the past two seasons.
Slight to Clemson, based on series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TULANE...Butch Davis 4-0 as dog LY and 10-4 in role since 2017 with Golden Panthers. FIU also covered all six away from home last season and all five non-CUSA games. Wave just 1-3 as home chalk LY.
FIU, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at TEXAS A&M...Spavital TSU debut! Bobcats did cover 5 of last 7 in 2018 for Withers. Jimbo 5-1 as home chalk LY and 10-3 overall vs. line, also 4-1 as DD chalk. Ags also covered all five non-SEC games a year ago.
Slight to Texas A&M, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at ARIZONA STATE...Sean Lewis 3-1 vs. line non-MAC in his Kent State debut LY. Herm 4-2 vs. spread at Tempe LY, continuing recent good ASU home marks dating to Todd Graham years (Sun Devils 25-14 vs. spread as host since 2012). Herm 2-1 as DD chalk in 2018.
Slight to Arizona State, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU... Visiting team has covered last three meetings since series resumed in 2016 (played in bowl in 2015 season), with Utah winning SU in last eight meetings. Utes 13-7-1 vs. spread last 21 away from Salt Lake City, 6-4-1 last 11 as visiting chalk. Sitake 6-1 last 7 as dog and is 13-5 vs. points last 18 on board.
Slight to Utah, based on series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Aggies not looking past Texas State
August 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) The 12th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies insist they're not looking past 33 1/2-point underdog Texas State in Thursday's opener. Next up is top-ranked Clemson.

''It doesn't matter what team you're playing, you should be preparing like you're playing an NFL team,'' quarterback Kellen Mond said. ''I would never take this game lightly.''

The Aggies like to say they see all their opponents the same and coach Jimbo Fisher emphasizes that the key to success is focusing on their team instead of worrying about who they're playing each week.

''They establish how they want to play,'' Fisher said. ''It's not about our opponent. It's not about anything. That's no disrespect. We have a tremendous schedule, like you always do in this league, but our guys have to understand ourselves before we can understand our opponents.''

Their first chance to do that is Thursday when they meet the Bobcats, a Sun Belt Conference team that won just three games a year ago. Then they'll have a couple of extra days to prepare for their trip to meet the defending national champions on Sept. 7.

That game is the first of four against opponents currently ranked in the top 10. After Clemson, they'll get a visit from No. 2 Alabama on Oct. 12 and meet No. 3 Georgia and sixth-ranked LSU on back-to-back Saturdays in November.

It's a daunting schedule for a team which went 9-4 last year and looks to take a step forward in its second year under Fisher after he signed a 10-year, $75 million contract before last season.

One of Fisher's main focuses in his first year was instilling his beliefs in the team and building the kind of culture that helped him win a national title at Florida State. With a season under his belt, he's seen a change in the program. But he still needs to see how his team responds in a game before he'll know if the Aggies are where he wants them to be.

''Hopefully, it's sinking in,'' he said. ''I believe it is by how we practice and the toughness and the way we play and compete.''

Some things to know about Texas A&M's opener against Texas State:

HELLO OLD FRIEND

The Aggies will see a familiar face on Thursday in first-year Texas State coach Jake Spavital after he spent three years as an assistant at Texas A&M. Spavital was the quarterbacks coach and co-offensive coordinator in 2013 and was the team's offensive coordinator from 2014-15. Spavital worked as an assistant at California for one season before spending the last two years as West Virginia's offensive coordinator.

At 34, Spavital is the second-youngest head coach in the FBS behind Kent State's Sean Lewis, who is 33.

Spavital, who recruited some of Texas A&M's stars including Mond, is looking forward to his return.

''It's actually going to be kind of a surreal moment for me, because A&M was the place where I got my first opportunity to call plays,'' Spavital said. ''(I) learned a lot, grew up a lot. It's going to be a surreal moment for me to go back to the place where it really all started for me.''

MOND'S GROWTH

The Aggies are hoping to see a steadier Mond this season after he struggled with consistency in his sophomore season. He didn't have an interception in Texas A&M's first three games last year, which included a close loss to Clemson. But he was picked off five times combined in the Aggies next three games.

''I feel like just with more knowledge of the game, I'll be more accurate and I'll be more decisive and more confident in my throws,'' he said. ''I was a little up and down last year. But I feel like with more film study and more knowledge of the offense, I will be more accurate.''

Fisher has not only seen Mond's skills grow since he arrived in College Station, he's also seen him blossom as a leader.

''His teammates respect him for his work ethic, his demeanor, his competitive nature, and more importantly his genuineness for our team to do well,'' Fisher said.

STUDYING UP

Fisher not only watched film of Spavital's recent offenses, but also pulled up tape of his work when he was at Texas A&M.

''He understands how to utilize his players, their strengths, what they can and cannot do and he's very diverse,'' Fisher said. ''He makes you play all parts of the field with splits, alignments, throwing it and getting it everywhere he goes.

''He's a very, very excellent offensive mind in how he does it, and I'm sure his teams are going to be prepared well and play well.''

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Picks: Can Oregon boost Pac-12 vs Auburn?
August 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

College football starts better than it ends.

The sport has evolved through numerous postseason systems that have clumsily crowned champions, and while the College Football Playoff does a better job than its predecessors it has also spawned a month's worth of tedious debate over the importance of bowl games.

The season still sort of peters out. When are the semifinals this year? How long do we have to wait until the championship game?

The season begins with bang, though, an immersive five-day holiday weekend filled with games after everyone's appetite was whetted with something called Week 0.

Admittedly, this opening weekend is light on marquee matchups. The only game with two ranked teams is No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. In this case quantity wins out over quality. Plus, doesn't it always seem like this type of schedule produces wacky results?

On the down side, this is also the time of year for some pretty ridiculous mismatches. We'll mostly ignore them here and you should, too.

The picks:

THURSDAY

Georgia Tech (plus 36) at No. 1 Clemson

You will need the ACC Network to get a look at Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence this weekend ... CLEMSON 35-3.

Texas State (plus 33 1/2) at No. 12 Texas A&M

New Bobcats coach Jake Spavital was A&M's offensive coordinator and QB coach from 2013-15 ... TEXAS A&M 49-10.

No. 14 Utah (minus 5) at BYU

Utes have won eight straight in the Holy War, their longest winning streak since the 1930s ... UTAH 24-17.

FRIDAY

Tulsa (plus 23) at No. 18 Michigan State

Can the Spartans' offense give its stout defense some help this season? ... MICHIGAN STATE 31-14.

No. 19 Wisconsin (minus 13 1/2) at South Florida

The Bulls ended last season on a six-game losing streak after winning their first seven ... WISCONSIN 31-21.

SATURDAY

No. 2 Alabama (minus 34 1/2) vs. Duke at Atlanta

This would be a potentially competitive 1 vs. 8 second-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament, with the Blue Devils as favorites. But, alas, this is not basketball ... ALABAMA 42-10.

No. 3 Georgia (minus 20 1/2) at Vanderbilt

It was only three seasons ago that Vandy beat the Bulldogs in Athens. Since then, UGA has outscored the `Dores 86-27 ... GEORGIA 42-14.

FAU (plus 27 1/2) at No. 5 Ohio State

Lane Kiffin's Owls get first crack at the revamped Buckeyes' defense -and QB Justin Fields ... OHIO STATE 52-21.

Georgia Southern (plus 28) at No. 6 LSU

Facing Georgia Southern's triple-option is not the easiest way to start a season ... LSU 38-14.

Middle Tennessee (plus 33 1/2) at No. 7 Michigan

Wolverines set to unveil a new-look offense ... MICHIGAN 48-10.

Louisiana Tech (plus 20 1/2) at No. 10 Texas

Longhorns tune up for LSU with La. Tech ... TEXAS 35-13.

No. 11 Oregon (plus 3 1/2) vs. No. 16 Auburn at Arlington, Texas

Another big neutral-field game for the Pac-12 against Auburn. Can the Ducks do better than Washington did last year? ... AUBURN 24-21.

Eastern Washington (no line) at No. 13 Washington

Huskies debut for QB Jacob Eason against an FCS squad with a history of pushing Pac-12 teams ... WASHINGTON 48-24.

Miami, Ohio (plus 21 1/2) at No. 20 Iowa

Hawkeyes are 23-4 against MAC teams .., IOWA 42-14.

No. 22 Syracuse (minus 17 1/2) at Liberty

Weird road trip to start the season for a ranked team as Hugh Freeze makes coaching debut for Flames ... LIBERTY 35-34, UPSET SPECIAL.

New Mexico State (plus 33 1/2) at No. 23 Washington State

Cougars will start Anthony Gordon, a former JUCO transfer and three-year reserve, at quarterback ... WASHINGTON STATE 56-17.

South Alabama (plus 27 1/2) at No. 24 Nebraska

Huskers are ranked to start a season for the first time since 2014 ... NEBRASKA 56-24, BEST BET.

Northwestern (plus 6 1/2) at No. 25 Stanford

(Insert joke about high academic standards here) ... STANFORD 24-21.

SUNDAY

Houston (plus 21 1/2) at No. 4 Oklahoma

Jalen Hurts debuts as the Sooners' quarterback against a defense that was one of the worst in the country last season ... OKLAHOMA 59-28.

MONDAY

No. 9 Notre Dame (minus 20) at Louisville

First game of what is expected to be a lengthy rebuild for Cardinals coach Scott Satterfield ... NOTRE DAME 42-14.

TWITTER REQUESTS

UCLA (plus 2 1/2) at Cincinnati, Thursday - (at)cliftnote

Bruins lost to the Bearcats in coach Chip Kelly's first game last year ... UCLA 24-21.

Oklahoma State (minus 14 1/2) at Oregon State, Friday - (at)BCGCSuper

Beavers RB Jermar Jefferson ran for more yards (1,380) than any freshman in the country last season ... OKLAHOMA STATE 35-28.

Utah State (plus 3 1/2) at Wake Forest, Friday - (at)VegasAggie

Aggies QB Jordan Love has the attention of NFL scouts after 2018 breakout ... WAKE FOREST 35-30.

Missouri (minus 17 1/2) at Wyoming, Saturday - (at)scott-jarrett1

Former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant plays his first game for Mizzou ... MISSOURI 31-17.

Boise State (plus 6) vs. Florida State, Saturday in Jacksonville, Florida - (at)Matt-Peaty

Peace-of-mind game for Seminoles fans to build confidence in coach Willie Taggart ... FLORIDA STATE 28-23.

Virginia (minus 2 1/2) at Pittsburgh, Saturday - (at)danhodes

The Cavaliers are the favorites in what promises to be another weird ACC Coastal race; Pitt won it last year ... VIRGINIA 24-17.

---

Last season: 225-92 straight; 170-169-3 against the spread.

Upset specials: 8-6 (straight up).

Best bets: 6-6 (against the spread).

[StarDust Bum]

Cincinnati looks to keep up momentum
August 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

CINCINNATI (AP) A national television audience for the home opener against a Power Five team with a deep tradition. This is about as good as it gets for the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are trying to build upon their resurgent season.

''There's more anxiety in week one than in any week,'' coach Luke Fickell said. ''I know for me, I didn't sleep last night and I probably won't sleep again tonight. Just the anxiety of week one, rolling that thing out there and getting started is so big.''

Yes, they're sleepless in Cincinnati as UCLA comes to town.

The Bearcats are coming off an 11-2 season that got them back in the Top 25 for several weeks. It all started with a 26-17 win at UCLA last season, the Bruins' first game under coach Chip Kelly.

Fickell was hired from Ohio State to dig out the program two years ago. He returns more than 85 percent of the roster that won 11 games, including the quarterback/running back tandem of sophomore Desmond Ridder and junior Michael Warren II.

The Bearcats know that Thursday night represents a chance to get some attention.

''The starts of all years are big,'' Fickell said. ''With the stage we're put on, it's even bigger. I told these guys the other day this is what we wanted, so we can't be shy.''

UCLA is looking to improve on its 3-8 inaugural season under Kelly, who returned to college coaching after four seasons in the NFL. The Bruins also have a young team - 53.3 percent of roster is comprised of true or redshirt freshmen, the highest percentage in Power Five programs.

The Bruins return a quarterback/running back tandem with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson and senior Joshua Kelley. Thompson-Robinson has shown improvement after growing through a hurried first season.

''He is so much more comfortable,'' Kelly said. ''Most freshmen don't play unless they enroll early, and he didn't enroll early. And he played in our opening game. He literally had three weeks of camp and then playing in a game. Credit to him last year on how well he was able to play.''

Some things to watch at Nippert Stadium:

SECOND TIME AROUND

Thompson-Robinson completed 15 of 25 passes for only 117 yards in the opening loss to the Bearcats last season. He's watched video of that game several times preparing for the rematch.

''I was young and inexperienced,'' he said. ''Looking now this team is a lot different. I was a little nervous and excited. This year I will be more cool, calm and collected.''

INFREQUENT VISITORS

UCLA hasn't played a game in Ohio since Sept. 11, 1999, a 42-20 loss at Ohio State. Fickell was a graduate assistant on that Buckeye team. The Bruins are 1-2-1 all-time in Ohio.

THE BIG STAGE

This is Cincinnati's 19th Thursday night game, its first since a game against Austin Peay in 2017. The stakes are much higher, and Fickell knows that his team's composure will be tested.

''The talk is about how you handle your emotions,'' Fickell said. ''That's the thing we have to see. There's nothing like the bright lights.''

ON THE LINE

Cincinnati lost three starters from a line that anchored the American Athletic's top defense. In the Bearcats' opening win last season at UCLA, Kelley was held to 20 yards on six carries. The Bruins need a big game from their senior running back, who averaged 113 yards (fourth in the Pac-12) and had six 100-yard games last season.

HOME SWEET HOME

Cincinnati's two losses last season were on the road - at Temple and at UCF. The Bearcats were 6-0 at home, though there were no games of this magnitude.

''I'm excited to see what Nippert Stadium is going to be like,'' Fickell said. ''I've never seen it at night in prime time, what it can really be like.''

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12, Oregon have something to prove in marquee matchup
August 28, 2019
By The Associated Press
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Here are some things to watch in the Pac-12 Conference this week:

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GAME OF THE WEEK: This couldn't be more obvious. Eleventh-ranked Oregon faces No. 16 Auburn on Saturday in Texas and there's so much going on. It's the Pac-12 against the SEC and a rematch of the 2011 national championship game. The Ducks also have a chance to do what Washington couldn't in its loss to the Tigers last season. And the pressure's on Oregon to make a statement for a conference that's been left out of the playoffs for the last two seasons. Still, Oregon coach Mario Cristobal was downplaying the hype. ''I think anytime you play a game you're representing your conference, as well as your university, your community. But we don't try to make it anything outside of us preparing as our program as we face a great opponent,'' he said. Amid the hoopla there are some intriguing matchups. How will senior QB Justin Herbert and Oregon's offense fare against a tough Auburn defense that includes the likes of Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson and Nick Coe. Oh, and Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix makes his debut.

MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: Arizona State running back Eno Benjamin against Kent State's defense. Last season, Benjamin ran for a school-record 1,642 yards to lead the Pac-12 and rank fifth nationally. The Sun Devils will likely rely on the ground game while they break in freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels. At the same time, Benjamin will be looking to raise his profile on the national stage. He'll be a handful for Kent State, which went 2-10 last season and ranked last for total defense in the MAC, allowing opponents an average of 467.2 yards a game. So expect lots of yards on Thursday night from Benjamin, unless coach Herm Edwards pulls him early.

NUMBERS GAME: Speaking of Benjamin, the Pac-12 has six returning running backs that rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season. Joining him are Arizona's J.J. Taylor (1,434), Utah's Zack Moss (1,096), Oregon State's Jermar Jefferson (1,380), UCLA's Joshua Kelley (1,243) and Oregon's CJ Verdell (1,018). ... There are three Thursday night games involving Pac-12 teams. UCLA is at Cincinnati, No. 14 Utah - picked to win the Pac-12 this season - is at BYU for a season-opening Holy War, and Arizona State hosts Kent State. ... The Pac-12 has five teams in the AP Top 25: No. 11 Oregon, No. 13 Washington, No. 14 Utah, No. 23 Washington State and No. 25 Stanford. ... Arizona kicked off the season early with a 45-38 loss to Hawaii last weekend.

UPSET WATCH: Keep an eye on BYU against the Utes. Sure, Utah has won eight straight in the series, but BYU has won five straight season openers. And yes, Utah has veteran quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss (who were both injured for last season's Holy War), but the Cougars have emerging quarterback Zach Wilson, who threw for 12 touchdowns last year as a freshman. Plus, the game is in Provo. The Cougars would like nothing more than to topple their rival in the season opener. ''I don't know if we've ever felt this strongly about an opening game,'' Cougars coach Kalani Sitake said.

IMPACT PERFORMER: Quarterback Anthony Gordon is finally getting his chance at Washington State, and look for him to make the most of it. Gordon toiled behind Luke Falk and then Gardner Minshew, but he won the starting job going into the Cougs' opener against New Mexico State. He's got a group of four receivers who each caught at least 50 passes last season, including Tay Martin, who had 69 catches for 685 yards and eight touchdowns.

[Udog]

Bum's picks for Thursday....

THURSDAY, AUGUST 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UCLA at CIN 07:00 PM
CIN -2.5
U 57.0

FIU at TULN 08:00 PM
FIU +3.0
U 58.0

GT at CLEM 08:00 PM
GT +37.0
U 61.5

TXST at TAM 08:30 PM
TXST +33.0
U 57.0

KENT at ASU 10:00 PM
ASU -24.5
U 61.0

UTAH at BYU 10:15 PM
BYU +6.5
U 48.5

[StarDust Bum]

Etienne leads No. 1 Clemson to 16th straight win
August 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

CLEMSON, S.C. (AP) Travis Etienne ran for a career-high 205 yards and three touchdowns, including one from 90 yards out, and No. 1 Clemson overpowered Georgia Tech 52-14 Thursday night for its 16th straight victory.

On an offense filled with stars, it was Etienne who shone brightest for the defending national champions. His 90-yard score tied for the longest rushing TD in Tigers history. Etienne added scoring runs of 14 yards and 48 yards as Clemson opened a 35-0 lead and was never pressed by the Yellow Jackets in the season opener for both Atlantic Coast Conference teams.

It was not the flashy return that most of college football expected out of Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The 6-foot-6 sophomore, so poised and polished in leading the Tigers to a 15-0, title-winning season, threw two interceptions in the first half. Lawrence had just four picks all last year.

Still, Lawrence had his moments. His hustle after a bad interception knocked defensive back Tre Swilling out of bounds at the Clemson 3, and the Tigers defense kept the Yellow Jackets from scoring. Lawrence opened things with a 6-yard rushing score and threw a perfect pass to Tee Higgins for a 62-yard touchdown.

NO. 12 TEXAS A&M 41, TEXAS STATE 7

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) - Kellen Mond threw three touchdown passes and ran for another score in just more than three quarters, and Texas A&M had four interceptions as the Aggies routed Texas State.

Mond, who threw for 194 yards, had touchdown passes of 21 and 3 yards and ran for another score in the first two quarters as Texas A&M raced to a 28-0 halftime lead.

Quartney Davis had 85 yards receiving and a touchdown and Jhamon Ausbon added a touchdown catch. First-year starter Jashaun Corbin had 103 yards rushing with a touchdown reception and a TD run.

Myles Jones had two of Texas A&M's four interceptions, and the Aggies had three sacks and nine tackles for losses.

NO. 17 UCF 62, FLORIDA A&M 0

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Former Notre Dame star Brandon Wimbush threw for 168 yards and two touchdowns in his UCF debut, helping the Knights open the season with a rout of Florida A&M.

The redshirt senior transfer completed 12 of 23 passes without an interception while sharing playing time with true freshman Dillon Gabriel, who finished second in the competition for the starting quarterback job that opened because of an injury sidelining two-time American Athletic Conference offensive player of the year McKenzie Milton.

Wimbush, who tossed TD passes of 37 and 12 yards to Gabriel Davis, was 13-2 as a starter over the past two years at Notre Dame.

The Knights improved to 26-1 since the start of 2017, with the lone loss coming against LSU in last season's Fiesta Bowl.

CINCINNATI 24, UCLA 14

TULANE 42, FLORIDA INTER 14

ARIZ. ST. 30, KENT ST. 7

UTAH 30, BYU 12