Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Eastern Michigan
@
Akron
Game 301-302
November 12, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating: Eastern Michigan
63.694
Akron
50.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Eastern Michigan
by 13 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Eastern Michigan
by 17
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron
(+17); Over

Western Michigan
@
Ohio
Game 303-304
November 12, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating: Western Michigan
81.828
Ohio
77.888
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Western Michigan
by 4
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Ohio
by 1 1/2
61
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan
(+1 1/2); Over

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Week 11 college games

Tuesday’s games

Akron is 0-9 SU/ATS, was outscored 131-9 in their last four games; they gained less than 200 yards in last three games. Zips won five of last seven games with Eastern Michigan, but lost 27-7 (+11) to the Eagles LY. EMU lost four of its last five games; they’ve given up 33.8 ppg in eight games vs I-A opponents, are 2-3 SU on road TY, with win at Illinois. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Over last 11 years, EMU is 3-3 ATS as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. MAC home underdogs are 7-3 ATS in conference games TY.

Western Michigan is 6-0 at home, 0-4 on road, with both MAC road losses by 7 points, with totals of 55-61. Broncos ran ball for 781 yards in last two games, both home wins; they’re 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road dog- under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Ohio U is 3-2 in MAC; road teams won four of five games SU. Bobcats 0-4 ATS as home favorites TY, after being 8-3 the last two years. WMU won six of last eight series games but lost 59-14 at home to Ohio LY, thanks to a -6 turnover ratio.

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Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, Nov. 12

Matchup Skinny
Edge

EASTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON...Akron in a bad way this season, 0-9 SU and vs. spread, now on 4-16 skid vs. spread at home since 2016. EMU 2-2-1 vs. line on road TY and just 3-3 last six as road chalk, but 18-6-1 vs. spread away from Ypsilanti since 2016.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at OHIO...Solich only 2-7 vs. line TY and now no covers last six at home. Though WMU 0-4 vs. spread away TY and 1-8 vs. spread last nine away from Waldo.
Slight to Western Michigan, based on team trends.



Wednesday, Nov. 13

Matchup Skinny
Edge

BOWLING GREEN at MIAMI-OHIO...BG maintaining the roughly 33% vs. line for Loeffler (3-6 TY) that it had for the preceding Jinks/Pelini era (11-25 vs. spread 2016-18). Chuck Martin’s Miami again closing fast, now 20-7 vs. spread in last half of reg season since 2015 (3-0 TY). Road team however has covered last three meetings.
Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at TOLEDO...NIU was 12-4 as visiting dog 2013-18, 2-2 TY in role for Hammock. Home team 2-0-1 vs. spread last three meetings. Note home teams are 7-1-1 vs. line in Toledo games TY (Rockets 3-1-1 at Glass Bowl vs. spread).
Slight to Toledo, based on team and recent series trends.



Thursday, Nov. 14

Matchup Skinny
Edge

BUFFALO at KENT STATE...Buffalo surging with four spread Ws in a row and has won and covered last two in series.
Buffalo, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at PITT...Mack Brown 3-1 as dog TY, Heels 12-4-1 as dog since late 2017. Pitt 2-3 vs. spread at Heinz Field TY, Narduzzi 12-18-1 vs. spread as host since 2015. Heels 6-0 SU, 5-1 vs. line last six meetings.
UNC, based on team and series trends.



Friday, Nov. 15

Matchup Skinny
Edge

LA TECH at MARSHALL...La Tech has won last 8 SU TY, 6-1 vs. spread last 7 in 2019. Skip 17-6-1 as dog since 2014 (1-1 TY). Herd 0-5 vs. spread at home TY, no covers last six as host.
La Tech, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Tedford 23-11-3 vs. line with Fresno since 2017 (though 3-5-1 TY). Bulldogs 2-1 as road dog TY, 8-1 as dog away from home since 2017. Aztecs just 2-9 vs. line at home since LY. Dog team has covered last three in series.
Fresno State, based on team and series trends.



Saturday, Nov. 16

Matchup Skinny
Edge


WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS STATE...K-State 7-2 vs. line TY for Klieman, Cats 9-2 vs. spread since late 2018. Mounties 3-7-2 vs. points since late 2018.
Kansas State, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at GEORGIA TECH...Hokies stirring a bit with covers in four of last five TY. Jackets 2-6-1 vs. line in debut for Collins, 0-4 at home. Paul Johnson had covered last three in series for GT, however.
Virginia Tech, based on recent trends.


TULANE at TEMPLE...Wave on 6-1 spread uptick, 8-2 vs. points last 10 since late 2018. Though Owls 4-1 vs. spread at home TY.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.


INDIANA at PENN STATE...Hoosiers on 5-1 SU and spread uptick TY, covered last 4 as Big Ten road 'dog. James Franklin no covers last 3 at Happy Valley TY.
Indiana, based on recent trends.


CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA...Bearcats 3-1 as visiting chalk since LY, though USF has covered last four in series. USF just 3-9 vs. spread last 12 at Tampa after Temple loss.
Slight to Cincinnati, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at DUKE...Cuse has sagged TY, no covers last five or 7 of last 8 in 2019. Though Cutcliffe just 7-9-1 as chalk since 2017.
Duke, based on recent ‘Cuse woes.


OHIO STATE at RUTGERS...Buckeyes on 8-game cover streak, ‘Gers 0-6 vs. spread in Big Ten TY. Bucks have won and covered all five in series since Scarlet Knights joined Big Ten, no margin less than 32. Last three years combined score 166-3! Last four years 215-10!
Ohio State, based on team and series trends.


LOUISVILLE at NC STATE...’Ville only 2-4 vs. spread last six TY but Satterfield teams still 18-7-1 vs. line at App & with Cards since late 2017. Wolfpack on 1-7 spread skid TY.
Louisville, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at IOWA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers on quite a roll, 11-0 SU since late 2018, covered last six in a row. Iowa however has won last four Floyds and 2-0-1 vs. line in those. Ferentz 7-4 as home chalk since LY and has won SU in last 8 Floyd fights at Iowa City.

Iowa, based on series trends.
vs.

WAKE FOREST at CLEMSON...Clawson 10-3 as road dog since 2016, 15-8-1 overall as dog since 2016. Wake has covered 4 of last 5 meetings (though Clemson won 63-3 LY). Dabo 6-1 vs. spread in ACC TY, 12-1-1 vs. line last 14 league games!
Slight to Wake Forest, based on extended series trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BALL STATE...McElwain 7-1 vs. spread last eight TY. Ball has covered 5 of last 6 after WMU result. But Cards just 3-6 vs. spread last nine at Muncie.
Central Michigan, based on team trends.


UL MONROE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...ULM on 3-8 spread skid since late 2018 but has covered last three vs. Eagles (dating to 2014). Warhawks better lately on road however where they are 4-3 vs. line last seven. Eagles no covers last three Sun Belt games at home.
Slight to ULM, based on team and series trends.


UMASS at NORTHWESTERN...UMass 1-9 vs. line TY and no covers five on road. Cats however no covers last six at Evanston and Pat Fitz no covers last eight as chalk.
Slight to Northwestern, based on UMass woes.


TROY at TEXAS STATE...Chip Lindsey just 3-6 vs. spread in Troy debut, though Spavital just 1-7-1 vs. spread in his TSU debut. Trojans have covered 3 of last 4 meetings (though not LY). Bobcats 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven as Belt host.
Slight to Troy, based on team and series trends.


NEW MEXICO at BOISE STATE...Davie has had some success vs. Boise, covering 5 of last 7 meetings including last three on blue carpet. Though Lobos only 10-24 last 34 vs. line since late 2016. Broncos 19-37 as blue carpet chalk since late 2010.
Slight to New Mexico, based on extended series trends.


UCLA at UTAH...Bruins rallying with wins and covers in last three TY. Utes however have won and covered last five in 2019 and have won and covered last three in series.
Slight to Utah, based on recent series trends.


AIR FORCE at COLORADO STATE...Rams rallying with covers last three and five of last six TY. Dog team has covered last five meetings.
Slight to Colorado State, based on recent trends.


WYOMING at UTAH STATE...Bohl on 11-3 spread uptick, 5-1 last six vs. line away. Wyo has covered last three in series. Utags 2-4 vs. spread last six TY.
Wyoming, based on team and series trends.


APP STATE at GEORGIA STATE...App 6-3 vs. line TY and 19-6-1 since late 2017 vs. spread. App 5-2 vs. spread last 7 on Belt road. GSU 3-0-1 as dog TY. Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last four meetings.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.


NAVY at NOTRE DAME...Navy on 10-2 spread uptick, still an outside shot at New Year’s Six. Mids 4-1 last five as dog and 6-3-1 in role since LY. Navy has covered last three in series and have covered 12 of last 14 at South Bend.
Navy, based on team and series trends.


ARIZONA STATE at OREGON STATE...Herm only 3-8 vs. spread last 11 since late 2018. Though Sun Devils have won and covered last two meetings. Beavs 6-2 vs. spread last 8 TY after U-Dub loss.
Slight to Oregon State, based on recent trends.


USC at CAL...Bears snapped 14-game SU losing streak to SC in LY’s 15-14 win at Coliseum. Underdog team 8-1 vs. line in Cal games TY, 12-2-1 last 15 since late LY.
Slight to California, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA at OREGON...Cats 3-1 SU and vs. line last four reg season meetings (though Ducks won 2014 Pac-12 title game). But Sumlin no covers last four and 7 of 9 TY (2-3 as dog). Webfoots only 2-3 vs. spread at Autzen TY and 5-7 last 12 vs. spread at home.
Slight to Oregon, based on recent trends.


COASTAL CAROLINA at ARKANSAS STATE...Coastal 3-1 vs. line away TY though just 5-4 vs. spread. ASU 4-1 vs. points last five as Belt host. Red Wolves big wins and covers vs. Chants past two years.
Arkansas State, based on series trends.


UTEP at UAB...UTEP 6-3 vs. spread last 9 on road. Blazers 11-1-1 vs. points at Legion Field vs. FBS foes since returning in 2017.
UAB, based on team trends.


GEORGIA at AUBURN...Kirby Smart 3-0 vs. line away TY, 6-0 last six vs. spread reg season away from Athens (counts LY’s SEC title game). Kirby has also won and covered last two vs. Malzahn and Dawgs 5-1 SU and vs. line last six meetings. Malzahn however is 8-2 vs. line last 10 since late 2018 and has covered both as a dog TY.
Slight to Georgia, based on series trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at SOUTH ALABAMA...Ragin’ Cajuns keep rollin’, now 8-1 vs. line TY after Coastal romp, 16-2-2 vs. spread last 20 reg season games for Billy Napier. USA a bit better lately with covers in 4 of last 5.
ULL, based on recent trends.


KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy had crucified KU three meetings previous to LY when OSU did not cover huge price in 55-40 win. Les Miles 2-1 as road dog Ty and 3-1 last four vs. spread. Gundy on 8-2 spread uptick since late LY and 10-4-1 last 15 as DD chalk.
Slight to Oklahoma State, based on team trends.


TEXAS at IOWA STATE... Tom Herman 14-4 as dog since 2015 at Houston & UT. ISU only 3-6 as home chalk since LY, and Matt Campbell 0-3 vs. line against Horns.
Texas, based on team trends.


TCU at TEXAS TECH...Tech has covered 3 of last 4 meetings, and Red Raiders 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at Lubbock (3-1 TY). Patterson 0-3 vs. line on Big 12 road TY, 1-6 last seven in role.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA at BAYLOR...OU 0-3-1 vs. spread last four as Big 12 visitor. Sooners have covered 3 of last 4 meetings vs. Bears, though Rhule 9-2 last 11 as dog.
Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at HOUSTON...Memphis 1-3 vs. line last four TY, no covers last three on American road. UH has covers as DD dog its last two TY but Tigers have covered last four meetings.
Slight to Memphis, based on series trends.


KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT...Derek Mason on 1-9 spread skid since late 2018, 3-8 vs. line last 11 as SEC host. Stoops has won last thee SU vs. Dores and 7-4 vs. line last eleven since late LY.
Kentucky, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio no covers last five or 6 of last 7 TY, 2-10 last 12 vs. spread in reg season. MSU 0-3 as dog TY and just 4-7 in formerly-good role since 2017, but Dantonio 10-1 vs. spread last 11 in series. Harbaugh has covered 5 of last 6 TY.
Slight to Michigan State, based on extended series trends.


FLORIDA at MISSOURI...Dan Mullen on 9-4 spread uptick since late 2018. He’s 15-8 vs. spread with Gators since LY, 4-2 vs. spread as SEC visitor. Mizzou no covers last four TY but has won and covered big last two in series.
Slight to Florida, based on recent trends.


HAWAII at UNLV...Sanchez 6-11 vs. spread since late 2016 at Sam Boyd. Rolovich has covered 3 of last 4 as MW visitor.
Hawaii, based on recent trends.


RICE at MTSU... Owls no covers last 4 or 6 of last 8 TY. Rice was 6-2 as road dog for Bloomgren before dropping last two in role. MTSU 7-2 last 9 as C-USA host.
Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UTSA...Roadrunners 2-11 vs. line last 13 at Alamodome vs. FBS foes.
Southern Miss, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Moorhead 3-7 vs. line since late 2018. MSU 0-3 as dog TY and 1-6 in role since Moorhead arrived LY. Saban 4-1 last 5 vs. line as SEC visitor, 1-3 vs. line after last 4 SU losses.
Alabama, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA...Huskers no covers last six TY, 1-8 overall vs. line. Paul Chryst 12-4 as visiting chalk with Badgers since '15, and Badgers have beaten Huskers 6 in a row SU (4-2 vs. line).
Wisconsin, based on recent and series trends.


LSU at OLE MISS...Tigers have covered 2 of last 3 after facing Bama. LSU has covered last five away from Baton Rouge and Coach O 3-0 SU and vs. line against Rebs. Ole Miss 5-1 vs. line L6 TY.
Slight to LSU, based on series trends.


STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE... Tree no covers last five away from Farm, and 2-3 as dog since LY after Shaw 12-4-1 previously in role. Leach has won last 3 and covered last 4 meetings.
Washington State, based on team and series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

EMU at AKR 06:00 PM

EMU -17.0 *****

U 46.5 *****


WMU at OHIO 06:30 PM

WMU -1.0 *****

U 63.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

EMU keeps Akron winless in road rout
November 12, 2019

AKRON, Ohio (AP) Shaq Vann rushed for 142 yards and four touchdowns and Eastern Michigan beat winless Akron 42-14 on Tuesday night.

Vann became the first Eagle to score four rushing touchdowns since Bronson Hill against Toledo on Oct. 13, 2012. He scored Eastern Michigan's first three TDs when the Eagles (5-5, 2-4 Mid-American Conference) took a 21-0 halftime lead. He added his final score in the fourth quarter. He carried the ball 28 times. His longest run was a 19-yard score.

Mike Glass III was 20-of-25 passing for 246 yards and added 83 yards rushing, including a TD.

Kato Nelson threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns for the Zips (0-10, 0-6) - including an 87-yard play to Timothy Scippio - and was intercepted once. Nelson also attempted a pooch punt that only went a short distance before bouncing back to the line of scrimmage.


*****************************


WESTERN MICHIGAN 37, OHIO 34

[StarDust Bum]

CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/12/2019...........2-2-0..........50.00%............-1.00
11/09/2019........32-27-0..........54.24%...........+11.50
11/08/2019...........2-2-0...........50.00%...........-1.00
11/06/2019...........2-0-0.........100.00%..........+10.00
11/05/2019...........1-3-0...........25.00%..........-11.50
11/02/2019........29-28-0,,,,,,,,,,50.88%............-9.00
11/01/2019.......... 1-1-0 ..........50.00%.......... -0.50

Totals................69-63-0.......... 52.27%........... -0.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/12/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........0 - 2...............-11.00...............-1.00
11/09/2019............13 - 14...........-12.00............4 - 2...............+9.00...............-3.00
11/08/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1................-0.50...............+9.50
11/06/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
11/05/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00..............-11.50
11/02/2019............12 - 16...........-28.00............8 - 4...............+18.00.............-10.00
11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS..................28 - 30...........-10.05...........14 - 12.............+4.00...............-6.05


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

[Udog]

by: Monty Andrews


ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night's MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation's No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they've been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.


MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU's 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.


GILBERT GETTING BACK

Kansas State's premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week's 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert's return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.


WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn't featured on the team's depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn't specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson's favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NIU at TOL 08:00 PM

NIU +2.5 *****

O 55.0 *****


BGSU at M-OH 08:00 PM

M-OH -17.0 *****

O 47.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Gabbert tosses 3 TDs, Bester runs for 2 in Miami (Ohio) win
November 13, 2019

OXFORD, Ohio (AP) Brett Gabbert passed for three touchdowns, Jaylon Bester ran for two scores and Miami (Ohio) used big plays to roll over Bowling Green 44-3 on Wednesday night.

Bester sprinted 59 yards for a touchdown and had a 1-yard plunge for another score while Gabbert connected with Andrew Homer for a 35-yard score and Jalen Walker for a 60-yarder during a 27-point second quarter that left the RedHawks up 37-3 at halftime.

Mike Brown gave Miami a quick lead with a 79-yard interception return within the first two minutes of the game.

The victory (6-4, 5-1) was the fourth in a row for the RedHawks and strengthened their grip on first place in the Mid-American Conference East Division lead with two games remaining.

Bryson Denley rushed for 105 yards for the Falcons (3-7, 2-4) but Grant Loy was intercepted three times, twice by Travion Banks. Miami outgained Bowling Green 425-275.


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Field goal with 41 seconds left gives N. Illinois 31-28 win
November 13, 2019

TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) Tre Harbison rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown and John Richardson kicked a 25-yard field goal with 41 seconds left to give Northern Illinois a 31-28 win over Toledo after blowing a 21-point fourth quarter lead Wednesday night.

The Huskies (4-6, 3-3 Mid-American Conference) kept their bowl ambitions alive by driving 68 yards on 13 plays and using almost 4 1/2 minutes of the clock before Richardson booted his winning kick through blowing snow.

Toledo's Eli Peters threw 34- and 13-yard touchdown passes to Bryce Mitchell in the fourth quarter before Ronnie Jones ran in from 7 yards out to tie the game with just over five minutes left.

Harbison was a workhorse with 32 carries on his way to his fourth 100-yard game this season. Ross Bowers threw for 193 yards and a touchdown.

Peters finished with 300 yards passing and three TDs with Mitchell making six catches for 125 yards. Shakif Seymour had 133 yards rushing on 19 carries for the Rockets (6-4, 3-3), who lost for the first time this season in six home games.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/13/2019...........3-1-0..........75.00%...........+9.50
11/12/2019...........2-2-0..........50.00%............-1.00
11/09/2019........32-27-0..........54.24%...........+11.50
11/08/2019...........2-2-0...........50.00%...........-1.00
11/06/2019...........2-0-0.........100.00%..........+10.00
11/05/2019...........1-3-0...........25.00%..........-11.50
11/02/2019........29-28-0,,,,,,,,,,50.88%............-9.00
11/01/2019.......... 1-1-0 ..........50.00%.......... -0.50

Totals................72-64-0.......... 52.94%........... +9.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/13/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50.................+9.50
11/12/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........0 - 2...............-11.00...............-1.00
11/09/2019............13 - 14...........-12.00............4 - 2...............+9.00...............-3.00
11/08/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1................-0.50...............+9.50
11/06/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
11/05/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00..............-11.50
11/02/2019............12 - 16...........-28.00............8 - 4...............+18.00.............-10.00
11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS..................30 - 30...........-0.05...........15 - 13...............+3.50...............+3.45


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Bottom six teams in 3-point shooting early this season:

— Elon 10%

— Southern Utah 11.4%

— Northwestern 12.5%

— Seattle 13.3%

— Southern 13.6%

— Virginia 16%

There are three other teams who haven’t played a Division I opponent yet.

Quote of the Day
“When you go to the zoo and half the bears are asleep, you’re not able to enjoy the zoo.”
Scott Boras

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the Cleveland Browns’ coach he last time they made the playoffs?

Wednesday’s quiz
John Calipari has led UMass, Memphis, Kentucky to a Final Four.

Tuesday’s quiz
Kawhi Leonard played his college basketball at San Diego State

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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) VCU 84, LSU 82— VCU’s coaches have it in their contracts that if they bolt for greener pa$ture$, their new team has to play a home/home series with VCU; this was Will Wade’s visit back home— he was not warmly received. Guys wearing fake FBI uniforms wee sitting by the LSU bench.

VCU led this game by 15 late in first half, but LSU fought back- they were outscored 23-13 on the foul line. Quality game between two teams I expect to see in March.

12) Ohio State 76, Villanova 51— Buckeyes led this game 40-22 at halftime.

It is very, very early in the season; some teams are way ahead of others. It is easy to overreact to unusual scores, once we get to Thanksgiving, we can begin to do some evaluating.

11) NFL finalized its Week 16 schedule by putting three games on Saturday, Dec 21; Texans-Bucs, Bills-Patriots and Rams-49ers.

10) Rams’ injury troubles on the offensive line have contributed to their offense being less explosive; hard to throw longer passes if you’re struggling to protect the QB.

Last year, the Rams had 15 TD plays of 18+ yards; this year, they have three.

9) 46-year old Adam Vinatieri has missed 11 PAT’s/FG’s this year; the Colts have brought in other kickers to try out.

8) Field position is important in football; turnover margin and 3/outs go a long way towards determining field position, especially now that kickoff returns have been greatly reduced.

These teams have forced the most 3/outs this season:

New England 44, San Francisco 41, Philadelphia 34

7) These teams have forced the fewest 3/outs this season:

Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Oakland, all 17.

6) These teams have gone 3/out on offense the most this year:

Bears 46, Jets 44, Redskins 36, Giants 33

5) These teams have gone 3/out on offense the least this year:

Texans 13, Cowboys 14, Ravens/Saints 17, Chiefs 18

4) When Arkansas fired football coach Chad Morris last week, they also lost out on a 4-star QB recruit who happens to be…….Chad Morris’ son.

Chandler Morris is rated as the #13 dual-threat QB in the country, in the 2020 class.

3) Mike Piazza is going to coach the Italian team in the 2021 World Baseball Classic.

2) From ESPN Stats: Last week, the Browns had a drive where they ran six plays from the Buffalo 1 or 2-yard line but didn’t score on that drive; that is the first time that has happened in the NFL since December 18, 1993, when the Jets couldn’t score in that situation against Dallas.

1) Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander both won Cy Young awards Wednesday night; only two players homered off of both of them this season, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto, both of whom homered against Verlander in the World Series.

[StarDust Bum]

North Carolina at Pittsburgh
Joe Nelson

A key ACC Coastal contest is lined up for the ESPN game Thursday night with a tight division battle ahead for the right to face Clemson in December.

Here is a look at North Carolina and Pittsburgh, a series with a run of eight consecutive meetings decided by seven or fewer points.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time/TV: Thursday, November 14, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Pittsburgh -4½, Over/Under 50½
Last Meeting: 2018 at North Carolina (+3) 38, Pittsburgh 35

North Carolina only won once in ACC play last season and oddly enough that victory came vs. Pittsburgh, the 2018 ACC Coastal champion. Mack Brown has brought some life back to the football program in Chapel Hill but ultimately the Tar Heels are just 4-5 with Brown, taking over for Larry Fedora who had a 45-43 record over seven seasons with the program.

The Tar Heels won the ACC Coastal in an 11-3 2015 season, going 8-0 in ACC play before giving Clemson a tough game in the conference championship. Back-to-back 1-7 ACC campaigns the last two years sparked the change however and the 68-year old Brown was a great fit to bring some enthusiasm back to the program. Despite leading the great 2005 national championship team ,his 158-58 run at Texas had grown stale and after being off the sidelines for five seasons and doing TV work, Brown returns to the school that he took from 1-10 to 10-1 in his ten seasons at North Carolina from 1988 to 1997.

Brown’s stature helped the cause in the Tar Heels landing highly regarded freshman quarterback Sam Howell who had originally committed for Florida State. Howell has shown his youth at times this season and is completing just 58 percent of his passes, but with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions while also providing a flare for the dramatic on the big stage, leading comeback wins in his first two games.

While only 4-5 overall, the Tar Heels have three ACC wins and split a pair of difficult non-conference games. They also had to play Clemson unlike most Coastal teams, and didn’t just play the defending national champions, they put a big scare into the national playoff race by falling a two-point conversion short of the upset. All five losses for North Carolina have come by seven or fewer points including a six-OT loss to Virginia Tech but three of the four wins have come by four or fewer points.

Pittsburgh is 3-2 in the ACC but like North Carolina, one of those losses is to Virginia, who at worst will finish 5-3. Multi-team tiebreaker scenarios are possible if Virginia Tech winds up beating Virginia and the Panthers have a shot to win the division outright in that scenario if they can win out, drawing the Hokies next week. Pittsburgh was a surprise Coastal champion despite being 3-4 in mid-October last season having lost three non-conference games. A 1-2 start this season has also been erased as Pittsburgh will be back in the postseason.

Pat Narduzzi has gone 34-27 in now his fifth season at Pittsburgh, coming from several years as a defensive assistant at Michigan State. The Panthers might have trouble filling the seats Thursday night despite having another successful season as the shared tenant at Heinz Field has a national TV game as the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns.

Only Clemson has allowed fewer points than Pittsburgh in ACC play this season with just 106 surrendered but that is also the exact amount the Panthers have scored. North Carolina, with one additional game under its belt, has scored 178 points but has allowed 166. North Carolina ranks 29th nationally posting 446 yards per game while gaining a full yard more per play than Pittsburgh.

Neither team has rushed the ball very effectively this season but the Panthers stand out on run defense, eighth nationally allowing just over 91 yards per game, while sixth nationally allowing just 2.8 yards per rush for a dramatic improvement compared to last season. Even as the rushing ability of the offense has declined, Pittsburgh has out-gained six different foes by at least 70 rushing yards including three straight ACC foes. The Panthers are also third nationally behind Wisconsin and Clemson in holding opposing quarterbacks to just over 48 percent completions.

The Pittsburgh offense is led by junior Kenny Pickett who has modest numbers in managing this offense. In ACC play he has thrown eight interceptions in five games but ultimately has been a winner for the program and he sat out the FCS win over Delaware to miss an opportunity to improve his totals. Pittsburgh has lost twice at home this season however and in four of five Heinz field games the Panthers haven’t even topped 20 points.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in FBS games this season and despite the modest offensive numbers they Panthers haven’t lost the yardage battle in any game since the season opening loss to Virginia in August. North Carolina will still be favored to get to 6-6 and a bowl bid even with a loss this week as they face FCS Mercer next before a winnable rivalry game down the road at NC State. Neither team played last week as both teams should have good preparation in order for this showcase opportunity.

Series History:

North Carolina is 8-2 S/U & ATS in this series going back to 1982 and is 6-0 S/U and 5-1 ATS in the six consecutive meetings as ACC division foes. All six of those games and eight consecutive games between these teams including a 2009 bowl game have been decided by seven or fewer points.

Last Season:

This game occurred in late September and was the first home game for North Carolina, who started 0-2 last season. The Tar Heels were supposed to host UCF the previous week but that game was cancelled due to the storm. Pittsburgh won its ACC opener the previous week over Georgia Tech to shake off a 51-6 loss to Penn State and the trip to Chapel Hill was the team’s first road game of the season. The Panthers led 28-21 at halftime but North Carolina scored 17 points in the third quarter to take control. Pittsburgh climbed within three with a late touchdown but never got the ball back as the slight home underdog got the win. Pittsburgh had a rushing edge in the game but the Tar Heels gained 10.1 yards per pass attempt behind Nathan Elliott.

North Carolina Trends:

The October win at Georgia Tech is the only road win for North Carolina the past two years with the previous win at Pittsburgh in 2017, 34-31. North Carolina is 3-11 S/U and 6-7-1 ATS on the road since the start of the 2017 season, going 1-2 S/U and ATS this season. North Carolina is on an 11-4-1 ATS run in the past 16 games as an underdog including going 3-1 getting points this season.

Pittsburgh Trends:

Pittsburgh is 21-10 S/U at home under Narduzzi since 2015 but just 12-18-1 ATS including a 4-12-1 ATS record as a home favorite. The Panthers are 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite of seven or fewer points at home under Narduzzi as this is a surprisingly unusual price in recent years at Heinz Field, with Pittsburgh an underdog in nearly half of its home games the past four seasons. Since last November Pittsburgh is on a 5-2 ATS run as a favorite however to break a losing run for much of the previous few years.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Monty Andrews


COLD COMFORT

Fans at Dix Stadium had better bring their extra-thick jackets for Thursday's MAC encounter between Kent State and visiting Buffalo. The mercury is expected to dip below 30 degrees by kickoff, which could mean an added emphasis on the run game on both sides.

If that's the case, the Bulls come in with an overwhelming advantage: They rank second in the conference and 17th in the nation in rushing yards per game (224.4) while limiting opposing teams to just 85 yards per game on the ground (sixth in the country). On the flip side, only three teams in the nation are allowing more rushing yards than the Golden Flashes (256.1).

This line has already shifted as much as two points in Buffalo's favor, and with both teams likely to stick to the ground in bitter cold temperatures, we see the Bulls as a terrific option to cover the spread.


PREPARE FOR PIT PRESSURE

The North Carolina Tar Heels might need to work extra-hard to keep their quarterback upright Thursday night as they visit the Pittsburgh Panthers in a marquee ACC matchup. The Tar Heels come in having allowed 29 sacks through nine games, with their 3.22 sacks-per-game average ranking 119th in the country.

That number could skyrocket Thursday against a host Panthers defensive unit that has racked up 40 sacks in its first nine games, second only to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Pittsburgh also has a whopping 30 non-sack tackles that have resulted in a loss of yardage this season.

With the Panthers' run defense humming as well (85.9 yards allowed per game, 8th-best in FBS), North Carolina could be in all kinds of trouble. The Under on the Tar Heels' team total is a strong play here.


HOW TO BET BAMA WITHOUT TUA

The Alabama Crimson Tide aren't prepared to risk Tua Tagovailoa's long-term health – which is why the NFL draft prospect is considered a game-time decision for Saturday's encounter with Mississippi State.

Tagovailoa is still dealing with the lingering effects of an ankle injury that required surgery, and head coach Nick Saban says he might not make a decision on his star QB's status until close to kickoff. Mac Jones would likely get the call under center if Tagovailoa can't go. The Heisman Trophy candidate threw for 418 yards and four touchdowns in last week's 46-41 loss to LSU.

The Crimson Tide are 17.5-point favorites as of the middle of the week – and even if Tagovailoa sits this one out, they'll need to be dominant from here on out to ensure a spot in the College Football Playoff. We like Alabama to cover regardless.


DUAL THREAT

The Memphis Tigers are set to feature a 1-2 punch at running back for Saturday's showdown with host Houston. Patrick Taylor Jr. has practiced the past two days, and while head coach Mike Norvell isn't ready to declare Taylor fit to play, the senior standout is trending in the right direction.

Taylor hasn't suited up since since suffering a leg injury in the Tigers' season-opening 15-10 win over the Ole Miss Rebels. Taylor's return gives Memphis a devastating two-headed running back monster, with Kenneth Gainwell having racked up more than 1,500 yards and 15 scores this season.

This is a big problem for a Cougars team allowing more than 460 yards per game; Look for Memphis to use Taylor and Gainwell to control the tempo early and convert the first-half cover.

[StarDust Bum]

Fresno State at San Diego State
Matt Blunt

Venue/Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 15 (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Pick 'em, Total 43.5

There is a big time Mountain West showdown this Friday, as the defending conference champions (Fresno State) hope that the can go out on the road and play spoiler to a San Diego State team that hopes it's there name beside the conference champion moniker by this year's end.

A win by the Aztecs would put them in the driver's seat in the West division before their big trip to Hawaii next week, while a loss would only add more tension and pressure. Feeling tension and pressure are two things not commonly associated with touching down on the islands of Hawaii, but should San Diego State fall this week to Fresno, it might be the beginning of the end for San Diego State's conference title dreams in 2019.

And after last week's play on the 'under' in the Washington/Oregon State game brought a no-sweat winner, hopefully the move over to the Mountain West conference this week can bring the same results.

Betting Odds: Fresno State vs San Diego State (pick'em); Total set at 43

This line has already seen significant movement on the side and total, as the total's come down from it's opener of 44.5, while it appears that there aren't many in the market looking to back the Aztecs, as their opener of -2.5 has only gone against them. And given that San Diego State struggled to get by UNLV as a -10 favorite two weeks ago, and then lost outright to Nevada (17-13) as -17 home chalk, it's not hard to see the reasoning behind wanting to go against San Diego State. After all, this is a team that averages just 20.8 points per game on offense this year, and winning consistently in college is rather hard with that type of point production.

For Fresno State, this was always going to be a type of “reloading” year for the program after they had so many valuable and talented upperclassmen lead them to a conference championship a year ago. The Bulldogs came into 2019 as a very young team, and having alternated wins with losses the past six games, the inconsistency in putting together a strong 60 minutes on a weekly basis is a sign of a young team. Following that patter would suggest a win for Fresno State this week, but at 3-5-1 ATS this year, it's not like they've been world beaters against the number either.

In terms of the total, the move downwards is always going to be expected for San Diego State games given how low scoring they tend to be. The Aztecs have only cashed one 'over' ticket in eight tries this year, and that game finished with just 48 total points. Yet, given the Fresno State love, this total going low isn't exactly correlated with that side, as Fresno's 7-2 O/U on the season and has only had one total close lower then 50 on the year. With all the Fresno State love that's already come in, you'd expect to see more support for the 'over', and that's just not the case. Therefore, from a side perspective, can San Diego be trusted to get the job done given that oddsmakers do expect their style of play to be the main form of action given the lower total?

If you are going to do one thing in college football, you'd better be able to do it good, and San Diego State's defense is THAT good. Yes, the results have looked rather ugly the past two weeks, but it's three straight weeks of holding foes to just 17 points, and they've held opponents at/below that threshold in seven of their nine games this year. The Aztecs are 6-1 SU in those seven games, so clearly they are doing something right, even with an offensive unit that's hard to watch at times. 20 points per game on offense has been good enough to go 7-2 SU overall so far, and with where the line is now, you've just got to worry about picking the winner.

One of the toughest situations for young programs like Fresno is always going up against a stout defense. The college game is built on higher scoring, back-and-forth type play because of talent mismatches, coaching mismatches, and/or more schematic breakdowns by younger guys still learning the game. San Diego State's defense just doesn't have those schematic breakdowns that opponents can count on to put up points and keep themselves in the game. That puts Aztecs opponents in a tough spot if San Diego isn't mistake prone themselves on offense, and I'm not sure this 2019 Fresno State team will be able to take advantage of that scenario.

Sure, San Diego State could look awful on offense at times, but if this game does turn out to be a 20-17 or 23-20 type game, who would you rather trust in that situation: Fresno State or San Diego State?

I believe you've got to back the Aztecs defense in that scenario every time out, and coming off an embarrassing loss as three-score home favorites, I do like the Aztecs chances to bounce back offensively as well. This Fresno State team is used to playing games where the first to 35 points win, and that's quite far from the realm of how this game plays out that the lack of comfort Fresno State will have because of it will start to show up early on.

San Diego State is already 1-0 SU and ATS after their other outright loss this year, and that 24-10 win over Colorado State was arguably their most complete win of the season. The Aztecs scored points in every quarter that day, and let the defense do what they do in quarters 2, 3, and 4 while San Diego State's offense put up majors in each frame to build a 24-3 lead. A garbage time score was conceded after that, and this week's home game vs Fresno should have a very similar script when it's all said and done.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUFF at KENT 07:00 PM

BUFF -6.0

U 56.5


UNC at PITT 08:00 PM

PITT -4.0

U 50.5