CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thur., July 18 -Sat., July 20)

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, July 18 - Saturday, July 20

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

This Week

-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 5
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 5
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 5
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 5
-- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 5

Year To Date

-- Favorites are 13-6 SU overall
-- Underdogs are 10-9 ATS overall
-- Home teams are 11-8 SU overall
-- Away teams are 10-9 ATS overall
-- The 'Over' is 10-9 overall

Analysis

For the second consecutive week Montreal (2-2) picked up a huge victory as a big underdog, winning outright in Ottawa (2-2) by a 36-19 score as 8 1/2-point underdogs. They're 3-1 ATS this season, all as eight-point 'dogs or more. The 'over' has also connected in three of their four games overall.

For the Red Blacks, they lost outright for the second consecutive weekend as home favorites, but this one was a lot more shocking than Week 4. The RedBlacks have now failed to cover in three straight outings. Defense has been the biggest issue for Ottawa, as they have allowed at least 28 points in all four of their games. The 'over' is 3-1 as a result. The RedBlacks are now just 2-7 ATS across the past nine against losing teams, too.

Winnipeg (4-0) rolled up a 48-21 victory against Toronto (0-4) in a game which ended up about how everyone expected. Surprisingly, the Blue Bombers were 'just' a 15-point favorite, and they easily covered. In fact, Winnipeg had a 37-6 lead by halftime and put it on cruise control. The Bombers have scored 28 or more points in each of their four games, and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS overall.

The Argonauts posted their highest point total of the season (21), but that still didn't make up for their awful defense. They have yielded 32 or more points in three of their four outings. They're 1-3 ATS overall.

Edmonton (3-1) routed the BC Lions (1-4) by a 33-6 count, as the Eskimos improved to 3-5 ATS in the past eight after a bye week. The Esks are an impresive 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings against the Lions, however.

Speaking of the Lions, their only win came on a single as time expired against hapless Toronto last week. They're 1-4 SU/ATS in five games overall, and it doesn't get any easier with a home-and-home on tap against Saskatchewan (1-3), a team with plenty of offense.

In the marquee matchup of the weekend, Hamilton (4-1) handled their business against Calgary (2-2), who continues to adjust to life without QB Bo Levi Mitchell (pectoral). The Stampeders, normally strong against the number, have stumbled out to a 1-3 ATS start.

The Tiger-Cats bounced back from a loss to the Alouettes last week, and are now 4-1 SU/ATS. For Hamilton, the under is now 3-0 in their three home games, and the over is 2-0 in two outings on the road.

Team Betting Notes

-- The Argos will travel to Calgary to meet an angry Stamps side on Thursday night in Southern Alberta. Toronto has failed to cover in seven of the past eight games overall, and they're 6-20 ATS in the past 26 on the road. The Stamps are 2-5 ATS in the past seven against losing teams, but 7-1 ATS in the past eight in this series. The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings in Calgary.

-- The RedBlacks and Blue Bombers hook up in Winnipeg on Friday night, and the scoreboard operator better be ready for a lot of action. Ottawa has managed a 26-10 ATS mark across their past 36 road games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five overall. The Bombers are 5-0 ATS in the past five home games, and 37-18-1 ATS in the past 56 games overall. Winnipeg is also 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.

-- The Esks and Als hook up on Saturday afternoon in Montreal. Edmonton has covered in just one of their past five games on the road, and they're 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games played in Week 6. The Als are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their past seven games on a Saturday. They're also 7-1 ATS in the past eight against teams iwth a winning overall record, and 4-0 ATS in the past four home outings. However, the Esks have covered five straight trips to Montreal, and they're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings overall in this series. The over is also 5-1-1 in the past seven battles in Montreal, and 12-3-1 in the past 16 meetings overall.

-- The Lions limp into Regina to take on the Roughriders in a battle between two teams with a combined record of 2-7 SU. BC is 1-4 ATS in the past five road games, 2-9 ATS in the past 11 against losing sides and 1-7 ATS in the past eight overall. They're also 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the West Division. On the flip side, the Riders are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against the West, while going 12-5 ATS in the past 17 following a straight-up loss. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five after a bye, too. In this series, the under is 9-2-1 in the past 12 battles in Regina, and 41-18-1 in the past 60 in this series, too.

[Udog]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
David Schwab

Week 5 Betting Recap

The Edmonton Eskimos kicked off Week 5 of the CFL regular season with last Thursday’s 33-6 rout over British Columbia closing as three-point road favorites. On Friday night, the Winnipeg Bombers remained perfect on the year both straight-up and against the spread after hammering Toronto 48-21 as heavy 15-point favorites at home.

Saturday’s CFL doubleheader started with Montreal stunning the Ottawa RedBlacks 36-19 as nine-point road underdogs. Later that day, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats got past Calgary 30-23 as four-point favorites at home to hold onto first place in the East Division title race.

Thursday, July 18

Toronto Argonauts (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:

Game Overview

Toronto is still searching for its first victory of the season behind an offense that has only scored a grand total of 59 points in its first four games. The Argonauts’ defense has not been all that much better with a points-allowed average of 49.5. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson got the start at quarterback in Friday’s loss.

He completed just 56.4 percent of his 39 passing attempts for 388 yards and three scores and he was also picked off twice. Toronto gained 65 yards running the ball on 14 attempts.

The Stampeders fell to .500 with Saturday’s loss to Hamilton and two games off the pace in the West Division standings. Nick Arbuckle continues to fill in for an injured Bo Levi Mitchell at quarterback. He put up some big numbers against the Tiger-Cats with 368 yards passing while completing 24-of-40 passing attempts, but he could not get the offense into the end zone through the air. Calgary’s rushing attack was almost nonexistent with 27 yards on nine carries.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has won 10 of its last 11 games against Toronto SU and it has a 7-1 record ATS in the last eight meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six matchups in this inter-division clash.


Friday, July 19

Ottawa Roughriders (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:

Game Overview

Two weeks ago, Ottawa was on the wrong end of a 29-14 loss to Winnipeg closing as a three-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 54-point closing line. Last week’s stunning loss to Montreal as a heavy home favorite went OVER 51 ½ points and the total has gone OVER in three of the RedBlacks’ first four games.

That game was 9-9 at halftime before they were outscored by 17 points in the second half. Quarterback Dominique Davis scored a pair of touchdowns running the ball.

The Blue Bombers’ strong start can be attributed to an offense that is averaging 34.5 points a game. They have also gotten some strong play from a defense that leads the CFL points allowed (19.8). They jumped out to a 21-0 lead against Toronto in the first quarter and cruised to their fourth win on the year.

QB Matt Nichols bounced back from a Week 4 injury to throw for 209 yards and three touchdowns in Friday’s romp.

Betting Trends

-- The Blue Bombers have a 5-1 edge both SU and ATS in its last six games against Ottawa. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings overall and in six of the last nine meetings in Winnipeg.


Saturday, July 20

Edmonton Eskimos (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS at Montreal Alouettes (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:

Game Overview

Edmonton opened the season with a 32-25 victory over Montreal, but it could not cover as an eight-point favorite at home. The total went OVER 49 ½-point total line in that game. In Thursday’s 27-point win against BC, the Eskimos took a 16-3 lead into halftime. Trevor Harris went a highly efficient 22-for-28 throwing the ball for 276 passing yards and two scores. CJ Gable anchored the running game with 68 yards rushing on 19 carries.

Following a SU 0-2 start, Montreal is coming off back-to-back upsets as a heavy underdog. It beat Hamilton 36-29 in Week 4 as a 13 ½-point underdog at home ahead of Saturday’s upset on the road against Ottawa. The Alouettes got a career day from Vernon Adams Jr. at quarterback with 327 yards passing and two scoring strikes. William Stanback had another strong outing running the ball with 100 yards on 18 carries.

Betting Trends

-- Including the win in Week 1, Edmonton is a perfect 5-0 SU in its last five games against Montreal. It also has a perfect 5-0 record SU and ATS in its last five road games in this inter-division tilt. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six matchups.

British Columbia Lions (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:

Game Overview

High expectations have been met with a very disappointing performance in BC. The arrival of Mike Reilly at quarterback has failed to invigorate an offense that is averaging just 20.5 points per game. He was held to 157 yards passing in last Thursday’s loss to Edmonton with John White rushing for 53 yards on 11 attempts in the team’s 210 yards of total offense. The Lions’ defense has allowed an average of 31.6 points in five games.

The Roughriders are coming off a Week 4 bye after losing to Calgary 37-10 the week before as five-point home favorites. The total stayed UNDER 51 ½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in three of their first four outings. Saturday will be the first meeting in a home-and-home series against BC. Cody Fajardo has gotten the call at quarterback for an injured Zach Collaros. He has thrown for 945 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions.

Betting Trends

-- The Lions have a 7-3 edge both SU and ATS in this West Division matchup over the past 10 meetings. They have also won four of the last six meetings SU in Saskatchewan. The total stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Mosaic Stadium.

[Udog]

CFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 18

Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Calgary
Toronto is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 8 games
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Calgary is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
Calgary is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Calgary is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Calgary's last 12 games when playing at home against Toront


Friday, July 19

Ottawa RedBlacks
Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Ottawa is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
Ottawa is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games on the road
Ottawa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Ottawa is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 9 games when playing at home against Ottawa


Saturday, July 20

Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games on the road
Edmonton is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Montreal
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Montreal is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Montreal is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Montreal is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Montreal's last 12 games at home
Montreal is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton

British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
British Columbia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of British Columbia's last 23 games when playing Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of British Columbia's last 13 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games at home
Saskatchewan is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Saskatchewan's last 23 games when playing British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 13 games when playing at home against British Columbia


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[Udog]

This report will update.....



CFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, July 18

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TORONTO (0 - 4) at CALGARY (2 - 2) - 7/18/2019, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, July 19

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OTTAWA (2 - 2) at WINNIPEG (4 - 0) - 7/19/2019, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-1 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, July 20

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EDMONTON (3 - 1) at MONTREAL (2 - 2) - 7/20/2019, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 4) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 3) - 7/20/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, July 18

Toronto @ Calgary

Game 689-690
July 18, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
105.650
Calgary
113.646
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 8
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 11 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+11 1/2); Under


Friday July 19

Ottawa @ Winnipeg

Game 691-692
July 19, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
105.090
Winnipeg
121.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 13 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
by 9 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-9 1/2); Under


Saturday, July 20

Edmonton @ Montreal

Game 693-694
July 20, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
106.338
Montreal
109.743
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal
by 3 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 4 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+4 1/2); Over

BC Lions @ Saskatchewan

Game 695-696
July 20, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
106.363
Saskatchewan
104.720
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
BC Lions
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 3 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
BC Lions
(+3 1/2); Under

[Udog]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 18

Toronto (0-4) @ Calgary (2-2)— Stampeders won nine of last ten series games, covering seven of last eight; Toronto lost last five visits here, last three by 16+ points. Argonauts are 6-20 vs spread in their last 26 road games; they’re 0-4 SU this season, with three losses by 25+ points- their road losses were 32-7/48-21. Calgary split its first four games, splitting pair of 4-point decisions at home; they allowed 30+ points in three of their four games. Stamps covered seven of last eight series games; under is 9-3 in last dozen series games played here.

Ottawa (2-2) @ Winnipeg (4-0)— Blue Bombers scored 34.5 ppg in winning their first four games, with home wins by 7-27 points. Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Bombers covering five of last six; Ottawa won three of last four visits to Manitoba- over is 4-2 in last six series games. Ottawa lost last two games (both at home) by 15-17 points; they won only road game, 32-38 (+9) in Calgary. RedBlacks are 26-10 vs spread in last 36 road games; under is 13-6 in their last 19 road tilts.

Edmonton (3-1) @ Montreal (2-2)— Edmonton (-8) beat Alouettes 32-25 in season opener, in a game where 17-14 4th quarter put game over total. Eskimos won last ten games with Montreal, but are 2-3 vs spread in last five; Edmonton won/covered their last four visits here. Last four series games went over the total— over is 12-3-1 in last 16 series games- Edmonton covered eight of last 11 series. Edmonton is on road for third game in row; they scored 32+ points in their three wins, were held to 21 in only loss, to BC. Under is 6-1-1 in Eskimos’ last eight road games. Montreal scored 36-36 points in winning its last two games.

BC Lions (1-4) @ Saskatchewan (1-3)— Saskatchewan won last three series games, by 9-3-33 points; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. BC lost its last two visits to Regina, 41-8/35-16. Lions allowed 33+ points in all four losses this year; they edged winless Toronto 18-17 (-8.5) for their one win. Over is 3-2 in their games this season. Roughriders’ only win is also vs Toronto; they’re at home for third game in row. Three of their four games stayed under total. Big game, with both teams off to slow starts.

Season totals through Week 6:
Home teams: 9-10
Favorites: 9-9
Over/under: 10-9