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**Udog** · 06-24-2019, 07:06 PM

Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

This Week

-- Favorites went 3-0 SU in Week 2
-- Favorites went 2-1 ATS in Week 2
-- Home teams posted a 2-1 SU record in Week 2
-- Away teams posted a 2-1 ATS record in Week 2
-- The 'Over' went 3-0 in Week 2

Year To Date

-- Favorites are 5-2 SU overall
-- Underdogs are 4-3 ATS overall
-- Home teams are 4-3 SU overall
-- Away teams are 5-2 ATS overall
-- The 'Over' is 6-1 overall

Analysis

Ottawa (2-0) posted a 44-41 thrilling victory against Saskatchewan (0-2) in Canada's capital city, as the over continues to produce. That's 2-0 for the RedBlacks in terms of overs, although they're now 1-1 ATS so far after failing to cover the 4 1/2-point number. As far as the Roughriders are concerned, they earned their first cover of the young season, but they're allowed 33.5 points per game (PPG) through two outings, both losses.

Edmonton (2-0) kept up their good work to start, topping the BC Lions (0-2) to win for the second straight week while earning their first cover. They're now 5-1 in the past six seasons during Week 2. The over continues to cash in this series, going 5-0-1 in the past six battles, and the over is 5-1 in the past six battles in Northern Alberta, too.

The Esks have averaged 35.5 PPG through two games out of the gate while averaging 24.0 PPG in two outings. They'll look to keep it going in Winnipeg (1-0) in Week 3.

Hamilton (2-0) wailed on Toronto (0-1) in the regular-season opener for the Argonauts, an inauspicious season debut for Toronto. The Tiger-Cats pulled away in the third quarter with a 21-0 advantage as the 'over' (52.5) connected. The Ti-Cats have posted a 2-0 ATS mark through their first two games.

Team Betting Notes

-- The Blue Bombers picked up a win as a pick 'em in the first game in BC, and they're coming off a bye. Winnipeg lost a thriller to Edmonton in Week 1 last season, 33-30, covering as short 'dogs at home. Overall they were just 1-2 SU in the three regular-season meetings in 2018, but they finished 2-1 ATS against the Esks with the over hitting in two of three. Since July 26, 2012, the Blue Bombers are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in seven home meetings against the Eskimos.

-- The Esks play their first road game of the 2019 season. They were terrible on the road to close out 2018, losing six straight away from Commonwealth Stadium while going 2-4 ATS.

-- On Friday, the Tiger-Cats look to keep their record unblemished against Montreal (0-1). The Alouettes lost to Edmonton in Week 1, but covered in the 32-25 shootout.

-- The Als split two regular-season battles with the Ti-Cats last season, as the road team managed to go 2-0 SU/ATS in the two meetings in 2018 with 'over' results in both.

-- Calgary (0-1) was surprised at home in Week 1, a rare setback of any kind for the Stampeders. They'll look to take out two week's worth of pent up aggression on the winless Lions. The Stamps won two of three meetings with the Lions in 2018, but BC was 2-1 ATS in the three regular-season battles with the 'under' connecting in all three outings. The lone loss by Calgary also came on their home field on Oct. 13, a 26-21 setback as 10 1/2-point favorites.

-- The under has connected in six straight meetings between the Lions and Stamps dating back to the last over result on July 29, 2016, a game decided in overtime. The under is 8-1 in the past nine regular-season meetings between these two clubs.

-- Toronto will be licking their wounds after getting hammered by Hamilton in their Week 2 opener at home. They head to Saskatchewan in a battle of winless sides, although the Roughriders have at least been competitive.

-- In 2018, the Riders were 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in the two regular-season meetings with the Argos, covering in their home opener last June 15. Saskatchewan has a five-game winning streak in the regular season during this series, and they're 4-1 ATS in that stretch, including 2-0 SU/ATS at home. The last time the Argos won in Regina was back on June 30, 2016.

**Udog** · 06-24-2019, 07:07 PM

CFL Betting Notes - Week 3
David Schwab

Week 2 Betting Recap

This past weekend’s betting action in the CFL featured a trio of games starting with Ottawa’s thrilling 44-41 victory over Saskatchewan on Thursday night as a 4 ½-point home favorite. On Friday night, Edmonton stayed perfect on the year with a 39-23 win at home against British Columbia to easily cover the closing three-point spread.

Hamilton also moved to 2-0 straight-up with Saturday’s 64-14 romp over Toronto as a 4 ½-point road favorite. The Tiger-Cats are the only CFL team to also go 2-0 against the spread.

Thursday, June 27

Edmonton Eskimos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -3 ½
Total: 58

Game Overview

Edmonton is off to a fast start behind Trevor Harris at quarterback. He completed 25 of his 33 passing attempts against BC for 294 yards and three touchdown throws. Greg Ellington was his top target with nine receptions for 174 yards and two of the three scores through the air. CJ Gable anchored the running game with 111 yards rushing on 23 carries in what is shaping up to be one of the most potent offensive attacks in the CFL. The Eskimos’ defense only allowed 202 yards of total offense in that latest win.

The Blue Bombers had the week off after beating BC 33-23 in Week 1 as slight one-point road favorites. Matt Nichols got the start at quarterback in that game and he went 21-for-33 for 184 yards passing and three touchdown throws. He completed at least one pass to six different players. Andrew Harris turned in an impressive performance running the ball with 148 yards rushing on 16 carries. Winnipeg’s defense allowed 324 yards passing, but it completely shut down the running game by allowing just four yards on four carries.

Betting Trends

-- Edmonton has won seven of its last eight road games against the Blue Bombers SU and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in Winnipeg.

Friday, June 28

Montreal Alouettes (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -14
Total: 57 ½

Game Overview

The prospect for success in Montreal is not all that high given its front-office issues off the field and its lack of deep talent on the field. The Alouettes were able to cover in a 32-25 loss to Edmonton in Week 1 as eight-point road underdogs. They are coming off a bye in Week 2, so the added rest could be a bonus as even heavier road dogs for this matchup. Question marks at the quarterback position continue. Antonio Pipkin was the starter in Week 1, but an injury paved the way for Vernon Adams Jr. to show what he can do with this offense. He was able to tie the game against the Eskimos in the final two minutes, but Montreal’s defense could not stop Edmonton in its final possession.

The Tiger-Cats demonstrated just how potent their offense can be by ranking up 64 points in Week 2 after scoring 23 points in a Week 1 win at home against Saskatchewan. Jeremiah Masoli completed 23-of-31 passing attempts for 338 yards and three scores in Saturday’s romp. He completed passes to seven different players while Hamilton was also able to gain another 161 yards running the ball on 25 rushing attempts.

Betting Trends

-- Montreal has the 4-1 edge ATS in the last five games played in Hamilton. However, the Tiger-Cats are 12-3 SU in their last 15 home games against their East Division rivals. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings in Hamilton.

Saturday, June 29

British Columbia Lions (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -10 ½
Total: 53

Game Overview

The arrival of Mike Reilly as BC’s new starting quarterback drew the attention of the betting public when it came to the team’s CFL futures odds to win this season’s Grey Cup title. It has been a rocky start for Reilly through his first two games with 473 yards passing on a completion rate of 54.5 percent. He has thrown for two touchdowns against three interceptions. The Lions’ leading rusher has been John White with 28 yards on 12 carries.

Week 3 will be a good test to see if Calgary’s 32-28 loss to Ottawa in Week 1 as a nine-point favorite was just a fluke. The Stampeders’ lineup on both sides of ball is filled with quite a few new faces from last season’s championship run. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 275 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception in the season opener. He completed 59.0 percent of his 39 passing attempts. Calgary’s defense gave up 276 yards through the air and another 125 yards on the ground against the RedBlacks.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has won seven of its last eight games against the Lions SU and the total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings. The total has also stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Calgary.

Monday, July 1

Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -13
Total: 54

Game Overview

Toronto started this season pretty much the way it played last season with a bad loss. The 2017 Grey Cup Champions sunk to just four straight-up victories last year. The Argonauts’ defense allowed a touchdown on six consecutive Hamilton drives in Saturday’s loss, in what was the team’s worst loss ever in this heated East Division battle. James Franklin got the call at quarterback and he threw for 211 yards and no scores against one interception. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson completed nine-of-16 passes for 99 yards and the team’s only touchdown throw.

The Roughriders hung tight against Ottawa last Thursday coming off a tough loss to Hamilton on the road in Week 1. With quarterback Zach Collaros once again sidelined with an injury, Cody Fajardo took over the reins and completed 27 of his 34 passing attempts against the RedBlacks for 360 yards and two touchdowns against zero interceptions. Saskatchewan’s defense allowed 354 yards and three scores through the air.

Betting Trends

-- Saskatchewan has a SU 5-1 record against Toronto in the last six meetings with a 4-2 edge ATS. However, the Argonauts are 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against the Roughriders.

**Udog** · 06-24-2019, 07:08 PM

CFL

Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, June 27

Edmonton @ Winnipeg

Game 681-682
June 27, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
114.601
Winnipeg
114.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
Even
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
by 3 1/2
59
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(+3 1/2); Under

Friday June 28

Montreal @ Hamilton

Game 683-684
June 28, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
107.362
Hamilton
118.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 11
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 14
56
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+14); Over

Saturday, June 29

BC Lions @ Calgary

Game 685-686
June 29, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
105.246
Calgary
119.804
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 14 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 10 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-10 1/2); Under

Monday, July 1

Toronto @ Saskatchewan

Game 687-688
July 1, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
96.166
Saskatchewan
115.386
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 19
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 13 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(-13 1/2); Over

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, June 27

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EDMONTON (2 - 0) at WINNIPEG (1 - 0) - 6/27/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, June 28

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MONTREAL (0 - 1) at HAMILTON (2 - 0) - 6/28/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, June 29

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 2) at CALGARY (0 - 1) - 6/29/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, July 1

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TORONTO (0 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 2) - 7/1/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
TORONTO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, June 27

Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Winnipeg
Edmonton is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Edmonton is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Edmonton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Winnipeg is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games at home
Winnipeg is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Winnipeg is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
Winnipeg is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton

Friday, June 28

Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Montreal is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games
Montreal is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Montreal is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Montreal's last 12 games on the road
Montreal is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Montreal is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
Hamilton is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games at home
Hamilton is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal
Hamilton is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal

Saturday, June 29

British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
British Columbia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
British Columbia is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
Calgary is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 12 games at home
Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing British Columbia
Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia

Monday, July 1

Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Saskatchewan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Saskatchewan is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto

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**Udog** · 06-27-2019, 08:17 AM

This report will update asap....

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 27

Edmonton (2-0) @ Winnipeg (1-0)— Teams split last six meetings; road team won six of last nine series games. Eskimos won three of last five visits to Manitoba; over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Edmonton won its first two games, scoring 32-39 points in home win over Lions, Alouettes; Eskimos outscored first two opponents this season 16-6 in third quarter. Winnipeg won its opener 33-23 in Vancouver LW, despite Reilly passing for 324 yards; Bombers had a +2 turnover ratio.

Montreal (0-1) @ Hamilton (2-0)— Road team won seven of last nine series games; Alouettes won three of last five visits here (4-1 vs spread). Four of last five series games went over total. Montreal (+8) lost its opener 32-25 in Edmonton LW, giving up winning TD with 1:30 left- they were outgained 608-325, giving up 447 passing yards. Ti-Cats won their first two games, waxing Argos 64-14 in Toronto LW, outscoring them 44-8 in 2nd half. Hamilton won its opener 23-17 at home over Saskatchewan, despite being outgained 366-232.

BC Lions (0-2) @ Calgary (0-1)— Stampeders won six of last eight series games, with last five regular season meetings staying under total. Lions lost four of last five visits to Calgary (2-3 vs spread). BC allowed 39-33 points in losing first two games this season; they were outgained 409-202 in Edmonton last week. have been outscored 38-12 in 2nd half of games this month. Calgary lost its opener 32-28 at home to Ottawa, blowing an early 21-6 lead; Stampeders were +2 in turnovers (5-3) but were outgained 401-318.

Toronto (0-1) @ Saskatchewan (0-2)— Roughriders won five of last six series games; Toronto is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Regina, losing last two, 27-19/38-27. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Argonauts lost their home opener 64-14 to Hamilton LW, getting outscored 44-0 in 2nd half; they gave up 604 yards to the TiCats. Riders lost their first two games by 3-6 points, falling 44-41 in Ottawa LW. Argos are 6-18 vs spread in their last 24 road games. Happy Canada Day to our friends north of the border.

Season totals:
Home teams: 2-5
Favorites: 3-3
Over/under: 6-1

**Udog** · 06-27-2019, 08:19 AM

CFL Week 3 preview, odds, picks and predictions: Riding the Roughriders offense
Rohit Ponnaiya

The Saskatchewan Roughriders exploded for 41 points in Week 2 and could be in for another big performance on Canada Day against the Toronto Argonauts.

It's Week 3 of the CFL and there are four games on the betting board, culminating in a Canada Day Clash on July 1 between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Toronto Argonauts.

Week 2 had plenty of offensive fireworks with four out of six teams scoring 39 points or more. Seven games into the season and we're starting to notice some trends; home teams are having trouble covering the spread and Overs are turning a tidy profit.

We break down the football odds north of the border with our analysis, betting trends, picks and predictions.

Season Betting Trends

Favorites: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Home teams: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Over/Under: 6-1

Week 2 Picks: 1-2
Season to date: 3-4

EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

Line: Winnipeg -5, O/U 58
Time: Thursday, June 27, 8:30 p.m. ET

The Edmonton Eskimos look like legitimate contenders despite losing star quarterback Mike Reilly. Newly aquired field general Trevor Harris has completed 77 percent of his passes for 741 yards and six touchdowns through the first two games of the season, while former USC running back C.J. Gable has rushed for 265 yards on 6.2 yards per carry.

The Blue Bombers should be a big test for them though. Winnipeg limited the Lions to 328 yards of offense and 23 points (and seven of those points came on a kickoff return) on the road in Week 1. This will be the Bombers home opener as they come off a bye, while the Eskimos play their first contest on the road. The Esks will have only six days of rest, since their previous game was last Friday.

This is the toughest defense Edmonton has faced so far this year and Bombers star RB Andrew Harris (148 rushing yards in Week 1) should be able to take advantage of an Esks D that allowed 134 yards on the ground and 7.9 yards per carry against Montreal. The Bombers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season and I'm backing them to win and cover at home on Thursday.

PICK: Winnipeg -5

MONTREAL ALOUETTES AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

Line: Hamilton -13, O/U 58
Time: Friday, June 28, 7:30 p.m. ET

Hamilton is coming off a huge 64-14 win against Toronto last Saturday. Jeremiah Masoli threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns while running back Sean Thomas-Erlington gained 109 yards on the ground and another 56 through the air. The Ti-Cats offense struggled versus the Rough Riders in Week 1 but they also played poorly against Saskatchewan in 2018 and still had the most yards in the league by the end of the year.

Montreal lost by seven points against Edmonton in Week 1 but should consider themselves lucky that the game was so close. The Eskimos rolled up 608 yards of offense, while the Alouettes totaled just 325. Turnovers and penalties by Edmonton allowed Montreal to stay in the game. However, despite the Ti-Cats offensive explosion last week they had a pair of sloppy turnovers (and an additional fumble they managed to recover) and committed ten penalties.

Even against a squad as bad as the Alouettes, 13 points is a lot to lay with the home side. Keep in mind that Montreal has lost by more than seven points in only three of their last 12 games going back to last season. The Als are 8-1 ATS in their previous nine contests on the road and 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They're also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Hamilton. Back them to cover again on Friday.

PICK: Montreal +13

BC LIONS AT CALGARY STAMPEDERS

Line: Calgary -10.5, O/U 52.5
Time: Saturday, June 29, 7:00 p.m. ET

In Week 1 the Stampeders showed their vulnerabilty on defense by allowing the Redblacks to score 32 points against them at home. Calgary's strong defense last year was built around their terrific D-Line and the departure of three starters from that unit has hurt.

That should allow Mike Reilly to finally play like the QB that the Lions thought they had when they spent a boatload of money on him as a free agent. Reilly has been a disappointment through the first two games of the year but, at least on paper, the Lions still have a dangerous offense with Reilly airing the ball out to Bryan Burnham and Duron Carter (son of NFL Hall of Famer Chris Carter).

The Stamps should also be able to put up points thanks to one of the top quarterbacks in the game in Bo Levi Mitchell and a squad of talented weapons surrounding him. The Lions allowed 33 points to Winnipeg in Week 1 and 39 points to Edmonton last week. With this game having the lowest total of the week grab the Over.

PICK: Over 52.5

TORONTO ARGONAUTS AT SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS

Line: Saskatchewan -11.5, 53.5
Time: Monday, July 1, 7:00 p.m. ET

I faded Riders replacement QB Cody Fajardo last week and paid the price. Fajardo completed 27 of 34 passes for 360 yards and two touchdowns, and the Riders put up 41 points against the Redblacks in a three-point loss. Fajardo and dangerous running back William Powell should have a big game on Canada Day against an Argonauts defense that was gashed for 64 points by Hamilton last Saturday.

Toronto's offense wasn't much better with 14 points and 322 yards but has the talent to play much better with S.J. Green, Armanti Edwards and Derel Walker catching passes and James Wilder Jr. running the ball.

Saskatchewan's defense played very well in Week 1 against Hamilton before getting shredded for 447 yards and 44 points against Ottawa. With the O/U set at a very reasonable 53.5, back the Over.

PICK: Over 53.5

**Udog** · 06-30-2019, 11:05 PM

Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders Preview and Best Bet

Early wishes to those up in Canada for a Happy Canada Day on July 1st, as it's actually the game that's played on that day that is getting the focus this week.

Odds: Saskatchewan (-11.5); Total set at 53.5
(Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET)

There aren't too many instances in professional football on either side of the border where we as fans/bettors can be completely sure of what type of message a coaching staff will bring to their team each week, but for this matchup, we all can be pretty sure both staffs have been harping on their respective defenses for days.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders defense – one that has the talent pool to be by far and away the best in the league – got shelled in Ottawa last weekend, giving up 44 points to the Redblacks and Dominque Davis. It was the second straight year that Saskatchewan's annual trip to Ottawa resulted in the Redblacks putting up 40 on the Roughriders, and thanks to the 2019 Riders offense, the 44-41 losing score this year looks a lot more flattering then the 40-17 one this organization suffered a year ago.

Yet, the message defensively will be just as stern this time around, as they can't go around giving up easy yards and points like they did and expect to win too many games. But if we can use last year as any indication, we should expect the Riders defense to step up from here on out, because last season's visit to Ottawa in Week 2 was the only time all year Saskatchewan allowed more then 34 points against. Welcoming a Toronto team that looked awful last week for the home opener is a great situation for this Riders defense to get back on track, and it's hard to believe that they won't be able to to some degree.

From Toronto's perspective, everybody knows about the offensive issues this team is likely to have this year, but I don't think many saw them giving up 64 points at home to Hamilton in their season opener. Toronto's staff had all of camp and the preseason to prepare for Hamilton and to lay an egg that badly was abysmal.

There is no way around that effort for the defense this week in practice, and on an individual and team level, every single man on that Toronto defense is looking for redemption this week. Going out on the road and silencing the crowd early with a big stop would be a huge boost of confidence for the Argos D, and considering the Riders are winless themselves, it's not like the Argos D comes into this game completely deflated, as they could be say against a perfect 2-0 SU opponent.

The Riders may have gashed Ottawa's D a week ago, but they only put up 3 more points against that same Hamilton team that Toronto faced, so Argos fans can take something from that, but the Riders defense did manage to hold Hamilton to 41 fewer points in their game as well. Hence the double-digit home chalk price. But with the emphasis on defense for both sides this week, the only way I can look at this game is to go 'under' the total for the full game.

That might seem odd to say given that we just saw each side give up 40+ points last week and it's easy to figure something similar will happen. But oddly enough, it's these scenarios where I look to go against conventional wisdom so to speak and it's because of the idea that neither team, on offense or defense, is really as bad or as good as they've looked through two games or less so far.

Furthermore, looking to go 'under' the total following a game where a team scored 40 or more points (ie: Saskatchewan) was a highly profitable scenario league wide last year. Not including two playoff games where totals went 1-1 O/U featuring a team coming off a 40-point performance, the 26 times it was live in 2018 produced a 5-20-1 O/U record the the following game.

Then, when you add in that teams coming off a performance where they allowed 40+ points (ie: both teams in this game), the O/U record the following game was 8-12 O/U a year ago, going 'low' here starts to look better and better. The opener for this game has already dropped a half-point for this game with early action seemingly looking low, as neither offense can really give you that much belief in their ability to put up 28 or so points.

With two winless teams looking to rebound after some of the worst defensive performances you'll see all year, I expect both teams on that side of the ball to step up in a big way this week, while their respective offenses still search for their identities. Put it all together and getting a combined score higher then the 40's will be tough this week.

Best Bet: Under 53.5

**Udog** · 06-30-2019, 11:10 PM

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, July 1

Toronto (0-1) @ Saskatchewan (0-2)— Roughriders won five of last six series games; Toronto is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Regina, losing last two, 27-19/38-27. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Argonauts lost their home opener 64-14 to Hamilton LW, getting outscored 44-0 in 2nd half; they gave up 604 yards to the TiCats. Riders lost their first two games by 3-6 points, falling 44-41 in Ottawa LW. Argos are 6-18 vs spread in their last 24 road games. Happy Canada Day to our friends north of the border.

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