Cnotes NFL 2019-2020 Football Schedule + News .Notes,Draft, Etc.

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By: Josh Inglis

JAGS’ DEPTH KEEPS IT LOW

With both offenses having scored a combined 10 points last week, it makes sense that the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars opened Week 2 with the lowest total on the NFL odds board. The Jaguars' lack of depth is a major reason behind this as head coach Doug Marrone stated earlier this week, “We have to see what the depth is. Right now it’s not good. We have to develop those guys.”

The depth at quarterback for Jacksonville is also a major factor in the low total. The Jaguars have Tanner Lee (0-3, 0 yards, INT pick-six) and Alex McGough (3-8, 19 yards) battling for the No. 3 spot. Look for those two to get ample time as Marrone sits most starters and needs to evaluate his QB ranks. We don’t see the Jags’ QBs running up the score against the Eagles and are looking to take the Under 34.5.

FALCONS FEAST ON BANGED-UP CORNERS

The New York Jets secondary allowed three different New York Giants quarterbacks to throw for touchdowns last week. Now the Jets' cornerbacks, their weakest position heading into 2019, are in even more trouble with injuries to their top CB and his backup.

“This is a great opportunity for a lot of guys. Like somebody has a chance to step up and make a name for themselves,” Jets head coach Adam Gase said. This revolving door for cornerback depth is great news for the Atlanta Falcons and their wide receivers.

Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has “difficult decisions” when it comes to how many wide receivers he wants to keep on the 53-man roster. He can “envision” keeping seven receivers which means the Falcons will give their receivers every chance to earn a roster spot against a depleted Jets secondary. This could help push the total Over 44.5 and we will be taking a good look at the first-half total as well.

BENGALS BACKS TO BOUNCE BACK

After running the ball just 12 times for an unimpressive 21 yards last week, look for Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor to establish more of a running plan in Week 2 versus the Washington Redskins. Taylor has said that top running backs Joe Mixon and Geovani Bernard will be available Thursday, helping the Bengals control the clock and eat minutes.

With Cincinnati quarterback Jeff Driskel taking reps at wide receiver this week, expect rookie quarterback Ryan Finley (13-18, 108 yards, TD, INT) to take the majority of the snaps after starter Andy Dalton sees his limited action. The Bengals will slow this game down, evaluate their running game and play a little harder defense after giving up 38 points to the Chiefs last week. We are on the full-game Under at 41.

RAVENS RIDE PRESEASON DOMINANCE

Preseason trends are about as useful as 10,000 forks when all you need is a knife. However, the Baltimore Ravens have won 14-straight preseason games (12-2 ATS) and look to make it 15 as they host the Green Bay Packers as 4-point favorites (opened as high as -5.5).

In Baltimore’s favor, starting quarterback Lamar Jackson will see plenty of action after playing three
series last week. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said they “aren’t trying to reinvent football” as they run a simple and basic offensive playbook early in the preseason, which is benefitting Jackson greatly (4-6, 59 yards, TD last week).

Conversely, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur wasn’t exactly pleased with his team who committed 12 penalties for 102 yards last week and missed two dozen tackles resulting in an extra 164 yards for the Houston Texans in Green Bay’s 28-26 win.

Losing starting inside linebacker Oren Burks isn’t going to help the defense either as two rookies, a sophomore and a practice-squad holdover will compete to fill the vacancy. We are taking the Ravens to continue their preseason dominance and jumping on the Ravens spread.

AIR RAID RECEIVERS TO SHOWCASE VS RAIDERS

The Arizona Cardinals head into Thursday’s contest versus the Oakland Raiders as 3-point favorites. Arizona has had a full week’s worth of rest while the Raiders will be playing on a short week that was littered with distractions. Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury and his Air Raid offense will need plenty of receivers heading into 2019.

“I’m not sure. I think six, seven — somewhere in there,” Kingsbury said this week when asked about how many receivers he was going to keep on the 53-man roster. He added, “I think it depends on how guys perform the last three weeks, so we’ll see how that plays out.”

Much like the Falcons, expect the Cardinals to pass a little more to better evaluate their receiver depth. The Raiders are dealing with some cornerback depth issues as well and may find themselves getting exploited on Thursday. We are riding the home team at -3.

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Friday's Preseason Essentials
Tony Mejia

Note: Quarterback rotation subject to change.

Head Coach: Sean McDermott (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Tyree Jackson (R)

LeSean McCoy is expected to play after sitting out the opener, so the Bills first-team offense will play at least a quarter at full strength. Buffalo practiced for a couple of days against Carolina and will be looking to improve to 2-0 in the preseason for the first time since 2013. Allen has looked sharp and will look to take a step forward this preseason after missing a few deep balls in last week's win over the Colts. While Barkley is entrenched as the backup, Jackson, a rookie from Buffalo, needs to rebound from a rough first showing..

Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (19-14 SU, 18-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier (R)

Cam Newton underwent offseason shoulder surgery but has been throwing the ball downfield and will likely play on Friday night despite nothing being set in stone. If he gets out there, expect all the starters healthy enough to join him to do so. Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen have all excelled early. The Panthers won three of four preseason contests in 2018, including the opener as a three-point underdog at Buffalo, 28-23. Ron Rivera has switched to a 3-4 defense, so he'll want to get guys plenty of reps. He's 5-3 in Week 2 preseason games.

Bears at Giants (-2, 42) - 7:30 PM EST

Chicago
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray

It appears that Nagy will expose his starters to as little game action as possible, so it wouldn't be surprising if they're out there for just a series, if at all. Chicago went through a scripted scrimmage that got the first and second teams a lot of quality reps, which may lead to Chicago giving Bray and the roster hopefuls most of the work. He struggled last week in blowing an early lead as Chicago was outscored 17-3 in the second half. A new-look defense led by Chuck Pagano would get a good test given New York's QB battle if the bubble wrap is taken off the regulars. The Bears played the Hall of Fame game last year, so this is Nagy's first conventional preseason. Last week's loss to the Panthers at home marked the first time Nagy failed to play a game decided by more than a touchdown.

N.Y. Giants
Head Coach: Pat Shumur (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Daniel Jones (R), Alex Tanney, Kyle Lauletta
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jordan Raanan

The Giants got a brilliant game out of Jones to ramp up the pressure on Manning immediately. He responded with a fantastic next practice while Jones struggled, so considering the home crowd can make their opinions heard in what will be New York's final preseason home game, both quarterbacks will look to impress. Manning completed one pass for three yards while the three guys behind him each beat the Jets for touchdowns, so expect him to take his shots with a receiving corps that's trying to establish a pecking order given all the attrition the team has suffered at the position. Saquon Barkley may be held out the entire preseason, so don't expect him to participate. Shurmur is 2-1 in Week 2 of the preseason.

Dolphins at Bucs (-3, 43) - 7:30 PM EST

Miami
Head Coach: Brian Flores (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Jake Rudock

Kenyan Drake is sporting a walking boot on his right foot, so the Dolphins will lean on Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton to anchor the ground game. With a few receivers down, Preston Williams will have plenty of opportunities to continue his breakout preseason and could give Rosen further ammunition to try and claim the starting job over the veteran, Fitzpatrick, who will take the first snaps on Friday and can do himself a favor by not turning the ball over or being erratic. Rudock helped pick up last week's win with a couple of scoring drives, looking sharp. The Dolphins continue to unveil wrinkles as first-year coordinator Chad O'Shea looks to generate confidence, so we could see an aggressive approach again if the weather permits since showers may be in the forecast.

Tampa Bay
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (9-13 SU, 10-9-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jameis Winston, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Greg Auman

Byron Leftwich had a rough start calling plays against the Steelers in his first game as OC under Arians, who is taking a step back and delegating in his return to the sideline. Winston will probably get a series or two before giving way to his backups, who were each productive in Pittsburgh. Arians has made no secret of wanting to see WR Scotty Miller (hamstring) out there. If healthy, he can be a terrific option. Arians has only won once in five Week 2 games as a head coach. Tampa Bay has been working against the Dolphins all week, even practicing indoors when inclement weather hit. Guys should be loose on both sides. If the game comes down to a kick, rookie Matt Gay has looked incredibly sharp for a Bucs team that has needed an effective kicker for years.

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Seahawks at Vikings
August 14, 2019
By Matt Blunt

NFL Preseason Week 2 Preview
Seattle at Minnesota

A pair of NFC teams coming off SU and ATS wins in Week 1 of the preseason meet in Minnesota on Sunday night, as it's a high-profile, under the lights preseason contest for the Seahawks and Vikings.

Minnesota's 34-25 win last week was arguably the more impressive of the two, as they managed to put up 35 points against the Saints in New Orleans. Strong performances by QB's Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter were a big reason for that result, as both guys managed to throw a TD pass and were a combined 13-for-20 throwing the ball. Kirk Cousins did his thing as well in one drive going 4-for-4 for 65 yards and a TD, and he'll likely cut into a bit of the playing time for Mannion and Sloter in this one.

From Seattle's perspective, their 22-14 win at home was fueled by a strong all around effort from QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch went 11-for-15 throwing the ball for 109 yards and a TD, but it was his four rushes that totalled 38 yards and a TD that helped Seattle grab the lead in the 3rd quarter for good. Lynch is a guy that's looking to revitalize his career after his failed stint in Denver as a 1st round pick, and based off one performance, his dual-threat ability is something that Seattle covets.

Doing it at home is one thing though, as can Lynch and company get it done on the road in prime time?

NFL Odds: Minnesota (-4.5); Total set at 41.5

As is the case with NFL preseason lines every week, there is significant line movement early on in the week and this game is no different. Bettors have already shown their hand in terms of backing the Vikings and the 'under', given that this line originally opened up at Minnesota -3.5 and a total of 42.

An average of 28 points put up between them on offense last week makes the 'under' look a little puzzling to some, especially given the QB battles both teams seemingly have going on for that backup role. But without question both sides would like to tighten things up defensively – especially in Minnesota's case, and I do suspect that's what we see to a degree form both sides in this one.

Seattle and Minnesota also have a recent history of preseason games finishing with 41 or fewer points, as they've met in August each of the past three years, and last year's 21-20 Minnesota win was the highest point total of the three. It was also the only one played in Week 3 of the preseason – typically the dress rehearsal game for starters – as the previous two years they met in Week 2 as they are this season, and those games finished with 33 and 29 points respectively.

So the 'under definitely makes a lot of sense here, and typically you'd better have a few good reasons to go against line moves in general during the preseason, and outside of last week's offensive performance by both sides, there really isn't a lot to suggest otherwise this week. Given that Seattle's 2nd preseason game has cashed 'under' tickets in each of the past four years, it would be that side of the total where I believe you can only look.

However, it's actually the side that may present a slightly better betting opportunity as there is at least one strong enough reason to go against the line move that's gone Minnesota's way already.

Going back to the start of the 2011 NFL season – essentially a year before the Russell Wilson era started there – the Seahawks have not minded travelling for preseason games at all. In road games outside of the Pacific Time zone (PST), Seattle has gone 7-1 ATS overall, and 5-0 ATS when lined as an underdog. That's an ATS run that has significant weight to stand on for this game, especially when you consider that QB Geno Smith will be looking to up his performance after what he saw from Lynch a week ago.

And for as much as Minnesota would like to see improvement on defense, it may be hard to completely flip that around in just a week. Mike Zimmer's defense have also been built around getting pressure and being physical, and those are two things that can be very limited in August action. At the same time, Mannion and Sloter are two guys I wouldn't count on lighting up the stat sheet again, which makes it very tough to back Minnesota at anything over a FG in this case.

The early money may have got the best of the number on Minnesota now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some buy back come Seattle's way the closer we get to kickoff. Remember, as a stand alone, SNF game, most of the action here has yet to hit the board, and I'm looking to stay ahead of the curve.

Best Bet: Seattle ATS

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49ers at Broncos
August 16, 2019
By Matt Blunt

NFL Preseason Week 2 Preview
San Francisco at Denver

The final game for the second week of the preseason is actually Game 3 for the Denver Broncos, as they get to play at home for the first time this summer. The Broncos welcome in a San Francisco team that general market perception is quite high on this year, as they get another crack with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, hopefully for the whole campaign.

Garoppolo won't be on the field much on Monday night, but with two guys behind him in Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard – both who started in his absence a year ago – San Fran has plenty of people thinking highly of them in the preseason as well.

Can that trio of QB's go out on the road under the bright prime time lights and stretch their preseason record to 2-0 SU and ATS?

NFL Odds: Denver (-2.5); Total set at 41.5

Denver's QB rotation shouldn't be slept on either

This will be the 16th time Denver finds itself on Monday Night Football in August, and a 6-9 SU record in the previous 15 occurrences isn't great by any means. But the last time they were in this role was back in the 2007 preseason, and oddly enough it was against this 49ers franchise out in San Francisco. That was a 17-13 win for the Broncos, who would love to duplicate that result this week.

Given that it is the third preseason game for Denver, chances are we see the starters get a bit more playing time this week then we will for other teams, and that can't hurt someone like QB Joe Flacco who is still establishing a rapport with his new teammates. Flacco's yet to see really more than one drive in game action this summer, and as long as you can avoid injury, the more live-game reps you get the better in his scenario being with a new team.

At the same time, Denver's reserves at QB may not have the starting NFL experience that San Fran's backups do, but they are battling it out for that #2 role as well. Rookie Drew Lock was given the bulk of the work last week in Seattle, and he performed well to the tune of 180 passing yards (1 TD, 1 INT) on 17-for-28 passing. Broncos brass are hoping that he ends up being the QB of the future in Denver and giving him as many snaps as they can now can only help his development as well.

Three-Headed QB's in San Francisco

Garoppolo will be seeing his first action in this game, but the bulk of the work is still going to go to Mullens and Beathard, as both guys look to build upon their flashes of great play from a year ago. It's because those two started regular season games a year ago that they are essentially “more known” to the casual market, and generally speaking bettors prefer to back/fade what they 'know' as opposed to doing so with more unknowns.

Which is interesting in the sense that the point spread for this game hasn't changed in number, just in vig, as action all week is seemingly coming in on both sides. The three-headed beast that is the 49ers rotation will likely get some more love the closer we get to kick-off because of their 'known' status, but this Denver defense is going to be the strength of their team once again in 2019, and it's the 3rd game for them as well. Seeing Broncos defenders fly around to the ball and make a concerted effort that they don't routinely get beat is another thing to consider here.

Total move correct?

While there hasn't been much movement on the side, the total has already been bet down a point from it's opener of 42.5, and that's arguably the right move. If Denver's starters come to play on defense, the early work for Mullens/Beathard will be much tougher than what they faced against Dallas a week ago, and each guy threw an INT in their time on the field there. Both had solid completion rates (11-for-17 for Mullens and 13-for-17 for Beathard), but they are still developing consistency in their respective games and didn't exactly put up many points off all those pass completions.

The 'under' is probably the correct move here though, although I wouldn't rule out the number climbing back up higher as we approach Monday. It's these QB rotations that tend to attract a lot of belief in points being scored. But look for Denver's defense to step up and be tough to move the ball on early, while the 49ers defense does its best to match them in that regard.

Final Thoughts

As much as I do lean on the 'under' being the correct side on the total, I can't help but see this as a much more advantageous spot to back the Broncos. Over the past five years, teams involved in playing the Hall-of-Fame game have come away with a 6-2 SU record in Week 2 of the preseason (their third game). There was no Hall-of-Fame game in 2016 which is why the numbers may appear off, but the built-in advantage of treating this as more of the third game/dress rehearsal has proven highly beneficial in terms of picking the outright winner in these games.

With the Broncos looking to put on a show for their own fans the first time this year, backing them on the ML is where my money is going on MNF this week.

Best Bet: Denver ML

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Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

Week of August 19th

After backing the NFL preseason trends and scenarios to a strong record in Week 1, we were able to get last week's situations to follow suit. Houston got the money in a game that was theirs nearly the entire way, all that love and support for KC in the market was squashed late in their loss to the Steelers, and for those that jumped on the Cowboys late in the week when the closed at -4 and -4.5, there could have technically been another loss in there for the Cowboys as well. But news on the Rams resting basically everyone was out early in the week that nearly all the Dallas numbers got their in the end.

With Week 3 of the preseason being the last week we really see the starters even consider playing, we are looking to end the preseason on a high note as Week 4 is just a debacle of a week to try and stay atop on who's playing and just how far the depth charts are getting extended. So while news continues to pour in over the week about the gameplans in terms of starters minutes for each team, it's back to the a couple of specific scenarios that have been beneficial to back or fade like we've discussed the past two weeks.

And while winless teams will get plenty of attention this week in terms of ATS backing – they always do in Week 3 of the preseason – it's these groups of teams that deserve more of a keen eye for Week 3.

Who's Hot

2018 NFC Playoff teams tend to take 'dress rehearsal' week seriously

New Orleans (9-3 ATS run)
Philadelphia (8-1 ATS run)
Seattle (7-1 ATS run)
Chicago (2-0 ATS run)
LA Rams (1-3 ATS run)
Dallas (0-5 ATS run)

The blanket statement above obviously doesn't cover all six of the organizations that made it to January football a year ago, but outside of backing the drama-filled Cowboys this week, the other five organizations have decent enough history to warrant significant consideration for their third game of the preseason.

As of the opening numbers currently out there, the Rams don't have one yet given how close to the vest they've dealt with their starters these past few weeks, the other contests have spreads shaping out like this:

Philly is catching +4 at home against a Ravens team who has quickly become everyone's favorite preseason darling , Dallas is laying -1.5 at home in an in-state battle with Houston, Chicago's catching three on the road in Indy against a Colts team with serious QB questions to address now, the Saints are laying a point on the road against a Jets team that's already come around on sitting starters the rest of this August, and the Seahawks are catching points on the road against a winless Chargers team.

If you were to assume that starters get close to an entire half to suit up and play this week, those are some pretty nice looking spots and situations for all six of last year's NFC playoffs representatives. Now, we all know that the starters for some of these teams will still barely see the field this week, so keep that in mind as you comb through press conferences and interviews trying to discover info about playing time, but know that recent history does favor that majority of this group to cash tickets this weekend.

Of the six games overall, the two that stand out to me at the moment would be the Eagles catching a FG at home, as well as the Saints out in New York. I say that because, Philly may not let Carson Wentz hit the field and are a little thin at QB in the preseason because of it, but this blind love for backing Harbaugh and the Ravens in preseason has reached a sell point in today's betting market in my opinion. With the Eagles likely sticking with a similar QB rotation to what we saw last week (Thorson gets the bulk of the game), this line on the Ravens is only likely to increase, an then it becomes all about picking off the top in terms of getting Philadelphia at the best number.

Backing the Saints against the Jets is another spot I'm looking deeper into, because....


Who's Not

AFC East teams in third preseason game
Buffalo (1-6 ATS last seven)
New England (3-8 ATS last 11)
New York Jets (1-2 ATS last three)
Miami (1-7 ATS last eight)

New Orleans is visiting the Jets, and they do have the 'best' record of their AFC East rivals during dress rehearsal week the past few years, but HC Adam Gase has already come out and blamed himself for losing LB Avery Williamson to a torn ACL this year on his decision to leave him out longer then planned for in last week's game, and New York is probably going to go into a shell these final two weeks to make sure everyone else stays healthy.

Even with the Saints cautious approach with some of their starters, you combine the recent history of both franchises during this week of preseason action with the likely scenario of the Jets going extra cautious, I'd get on New Orleans sooner rather then later this week.

It's those other AFC East teams that I'm interested in fading as well, as New England is about a four-point home favorite vs Carolina, the Dolphins are -2.5 at home against Jacksonville, and Buffalo's catching about a point on the road in Detroit.

Of the three, Miami may be the team that causes most hesitation as they've still got a legit #1 QB battle going on there between Rosen and Fitzpatrick. Neither guy was exceptionally great last week, and although chances are they end up giving Fitzpatrick the starting job at least out of the gate, that top spot is still up for grabs, and with both guys going to get significant time (in all likelihood) in Week 3 to prove they deserve that top spot, fading the Dolphins this week does come with some concerns.

But New England has nothing left to prove after a 2-0 SU start to the preseason, as they will be out filling out depth roles the next two weeks. The same can be argued in Buffalo as well, as they've gone undefeated so far in the preseason too. Considering that Carolina and Detroit – New England and Buffalo's respective opponents – are looking for strong performances late in the preseason, they are definitely worthy of play on spots this week.

Detroit would love to get that first win of 2019 under their belt, and backing them against Buffalo this week might turn out to be one of the easier covers of Week 3's action.

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NFL Preseason Betting Stats through Week 2

Betting Favorites: 17-14 Straight Up, 14-15-2 Against The Spread
Home Favorites: 14-10 SU, 12-11-1 ATS
Road Favorites: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS

Over/Under: 15-16-1

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Thursday's Preseason Essentials
August 21, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Note: Quarterback rotation subject to change. Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Giants at Bengals (-3, 42.5) - 7 PM EST

N.Y. Giants
Head Coach: Pat Shumur (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Daniel Jones (R), Alex Tanney, Kyle Lauletta
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jordan Raanan

The Giants are going to let Eli Manning build on a strong performance in last Friday's rout of the Bears by playing him most of the first half with the first-team offense. There's no real controversy. If he's healthy, he'll start Week 1 ahead of rookie Daniel Jones, who will look to keep the pressure on and will likely have the benefit of many of the same receivers Manning will be working with since a thin group has to overcome Golden Tate's four-game ban and won't have him here due to a concussion. The Giants are the highest-scoring team so far this preseason, averaging 31.5 points.

Cincinnati
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Ryan Finley (R), Jeff Driskel, Jake Dolegala (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Tyler Dragon

Andy Dalton is striving to get comfortable in Taylor's offense and drove the Bengals down the field against the Chiefs in his first test drive before sputtering last week in leading the A.J. Green-less offense to possessions that ended with a red-zone pick-six, a punt and a missed field goal. Rookie Ryan Finley then came in and played brilliantly, so the second half of this one will be worth watching. Cincinnati's backups outscored Washington's 17-0. Left tackle Cordy Glenn has been dealing with a concussion and likely won't play, but DT Geno Atkins and top pass rusher Carl Lawson are expected to line up for the defense.

Redskins (-2.5, 41.5) at Falcons - 7:30 PM EST

Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (12-10 SU, 11-11 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins (Rookie), Jalan McClendon
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Kareem Copeland

The 'Skins haven't had Colt McCoy available this preseason and have given first-round pick Dwayne Haskins a long look, but projected starter Case Keenum will get the bulk of the work that matters in this dress rehearsal. Washington has averaged just 11.5 points thus far and has been outscored 30-3 in the second half of games. 34-year-old RB Adrian Peterson has looked sharp and hasn't shied away from preseason reps, but veteran tackle Trent Williams remains a holdout despite being regarded as a vital part of the 2019 offensive line.

Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5-14 SU, 4-15 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matt Simms
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter

The Falcons carry an 11-game preseason losing streak into this game, last winning on Sept. 1, 2016. With Matt Ryan leading an offense that will also include Devonta Freeman, who looks explosive coming off season-ending groin surgery, this is a great opportunity to end that skid since the 'ones' are expected to play into the second half. Atlanta has been outscored 44-11 in the second half, so they could get a boost from the fact most of their projected final roster will see the bulk of the work. If it's close late, Danny Etling might end up making the difference. He was working as a WR/QB for the Patriots before being cut and is looking to impress enough to earn a practice squad nod.

Panthers at Patriots (-3.5, 42) - 7:30 PM EST

Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (19-15 SU, 18-15-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Person

Cam Newton will make his debut after offseason shoulder surgery. He's been airing out in practices and will likely put a few deep balls on tape just to show that he can after being deactivated late last season after visibly struggling to push the ball down the field. Ron Rivera wants to see him play three or four series before giving way to backups Kyle Allen and rookie Will Grier, locked in a battle to be the primary backup. Linebacker Luke Kuechly, back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Greg Olson will all debut, so it will be interesting to see whether rust is a factor against a Pats' defense you figure will be disciplined. Rivera is 4-4 in Preseason Week 3.

New England
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (54-44 SU, 48-43-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Danny Etling, Jarrett Stidham (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jim McBride

Receiver Josh Gordon has been reinstated but is still on the non-football injury list alongside Cam Meredith. Veteran Demariyus Thomas is still on the PUP list, while Julian Edelman has returned to practice after breaking his thumb but probably won't play against the Panthers. Tom Brady has had no problem making the backups shine in practices and will probably get a chance to show off his chemistry with talented rookie N'Keal Harry. Bill Belichick can always wake up and decide he doesn't want to expose his 42-year-old QB needlessly, but Brady has said he wants to play. Belichick is just 9-9 in Week 3 of the preseason.

Ravens (-5, 36) at Eagles - 7:30 PM EST

Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (35-12 SU, 32-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Lamar Jackson, Trace McSorley (R), Joe Callahan
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley

Lamar Jackson has seen extensive preseason action and has worked to stay in the pocket so far, looking to improve his accuracy and avoiding taking unnecessary hits before the lights come on. He went 5-for-7 with four TD passes in red-zone against Philly in Tuesday's joint practice, improving after a rough Monday. The Ravens have had to shuffle their offensive line significantly due to injuries, so it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to hold up in the second half. McSorley and Callahan, a former Packer, will likely split the time available behind Jackson. Robert Griffin III is out for the entire preseason with a hairline fracture in his thumb. The Ravens have won 15 consectuive preseason games, last losing on Sept. 3, 2015. They have scored in every quarter this preseason an have won all first and second-half bets. Harbaugh has gone 8-3 in Week 3 and has dropped just one preseason home game since mid-August of '13.

Phildadelphia
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS in season)
Quarterback Rotation: Josh McCown, Clayton Thorson (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane

The Eagles looked sharp last week but certainly capitalized on the Jaguars' decision to sit Nick Foles, riding the inexperienced Gardner Minshew instead. Their defense will get a much tougher test against the speedy Jackson, who will offer a much different look than anyone Jim Schwartz's defense will see early in the regular season. Pederson has kept Carson Wentz and most of the big names safely on the sidelines and has lost backups Nate Sudfeld and Cody Kessler to injuries, so it's unlikely that he'll deviate from exposing his regulars. Veteran tackle Jason Peters wants to play the first half. The 40-year-old McCown signed last week to be the primary backup and may see his first action, but Thorson should again get the bulk of the snaps. Pederson has won two of his three Week 3 games in the preseason.


Packers (-3, 39) vs. Raiders - 8 PM EST

Green Bay
Head Coach: Matt LeFleur (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle, Manny Wilkins (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Tom Silverstein

Rodgers will be a game-time decision but may not play given concerns over the field turf since this game will be played at Winnipeg's Investors Group Field, a CFL stadium. It's hard to see LeFleur taking a risk with Rodgers, who has yet to see the field this preseason but has looked sharp in the more controlled environment of practice. He's been dealing with a back issue too, so be prepared for a long look at Kizer. Aaron Jones should return to the running backs rotation and Jammal Williams is back after nursing an injury, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Pack work on the run game up in Canada.

Oakland
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (35-17 SU, 20-12-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Derek Carr, Mike Glennon, Nathan Peterman
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Paul Gutierrez

The Raiders who have taken the field for these preseason games have mostly impressed, but Antonio Brown's helmet headache has overshadowed that success. Gruden has refused to call it a distraction, standing by him and his team's body of work thus far as proof that everyone is getting their work done. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther hasn't been shy about putting opposing quarterbacks in compromising positions by blitzing and game-planning more than you typically see in exhibition play, which may be another reason to avoid playing Rodgers. Gruden is 4-4 in Week 3 preseason games.


Jaguars at Dolphins (-3, 37) - 8 PM EST

Jacksonville
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (8-11 SU, 7-10-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, Tanner Lee, Alex McGough
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: John Reid

After sitting out 31 players in the preseason opener and 27 last week, Marrone will allow his projected regulars to take the field in South Florida. Foles will be out there for the first time and looks to lead Jacksonville to its first first-quarter points. Minshew, who has seen the bulk of the work, will again be relied upon most, likely taking over sometime in the second quarter. The defense is expected to be on a pitch count, with coordinator Todd Wash more concerned seeing his personnel accomplish things he'll want to see from them come regular-season than game-planning for the Dolphins specifically. Marrone has won only one of his four Week 3 preseason games and has seen 12 of his 19 games go 'under.' McGough, who will likely play the final quarter, played in Miami at FIU.

Miami
Head Coach: Brian Flores (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Jake Rudock
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Schad

Fitzpatrick continues to lead Rosen and is expected to take the first regular-season snaps for Miami, but the job hasn't been won just yet. That makes this contest essential to both hopefuls Kenyan Drake is dealing with an injured right foot that may affect his status for Week 1, so the Dolphins will lean on Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton to anchor the ground game. Walton is dealing with a legal matter that may lead to an early suspension, so Ballage could be in line for heavy work early. Early standout Preston Williams will be looking to rebound after a rough night against the Bucs, so expect to see the ball in the air so long as the weather permits. Thunderstorms are always a possibility in the early evening, so check the forecast.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
August 21, 2019
By Matt Blunt

NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Preview
Friday's Action

It's a two-game betting board in the NFL on Friday night, as a couple of AFC teams with more positive expectations on them this year then either have had in recent memory, head out on the road to square off with a couple of NFC bottom feeders from a season ago.

The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills are both road favorites (a rarity to say) for their preseason games against Tampa Bay and Detroit respectively. The Browns and Bills have yet to lose in the preseason and results like that only fan the flames for both fanbases who expect their respective teams to be playoff bound come January.

However, the more immediate question becomes whether or not both will remain undefeated after this week. The Lions are winless so far this August and would love to give their home crowd a win to celebrate, while Tampa Bay's been in two different preseason games decided by two points already this summer and are catching more then that as a home dog vs the Browns.

So here's a look at both of them, as this preseason is finally starting to wind down:

Cleveland (-3) vs Tampa Bay (+3); Total set at 42.5

The hype train in Cleveland has grown so big that the city needs multiple bilevel cars strung together to contain it. The Browns are going to win the division, the AFC, the Super Bowl, are plenty of bold claims that have gotten out of hand, and with QB Baker Mayfield seemingly in the news cycle every 10 days for someone being offended/upset at something new he's said, the Cleveland Browns never seem to leave the news cycle for long these days.

If this kind of stuff continues on through September and October, it's going to be harder and harder to not go contrarian and look to fade Cleveland in different spots that come up, and it's that mentality that those who are sick of all this talk about the 2019 Cleveland Browns being the best team in all of the land are starting to lean towards for the rest of this preseason as well. Yet, the market was quick to back Cleveland this week, pushing their line up from an opening number of -1, and that's in part why I'd hold off on fading the Browns and their potentially inflated lines.

That move is significant no doubt, but even with the Buccaneers playing tight preseason games so far where a spread move like this could end up mattering, it's still the Browns that I've got to side with. I say that because not only does a line move like this game has had deserve respect, but Cleveland has spent the better part of the last six months doing everything to try and change the franchise's identity and become sort of a “paper bully” that everyone across the league should fear because of the player acquisitions they've done in that time. And what do “paper bullies” like to do? Pick on the smallest/weakest around them to further their image of power, or in football terms; win the games that don't matter.

Cleveland has made a point about these preseason results mattering to them, as they've not been shy about going out their early, trying to grab a lead, and then take the game from there. The more wins this team can pile up – whether they count or not – only helps them build that ego up and inflate those cars on the Browns hype train even more. That's a scenario that we can all profit from down the line in September and October when hope and hype converge to inflate this team well past the safe rate, but we've still got to get their first. And for the Browns, that means continuing to win these games.

Two tight games against Miami and Pittsburgh so far in the preseason have to have them content with what they've seen from the bulk of their starters so far this year, and they probably aren't looking to start another year without Jameis Winston under center for Week 1.

The line move on Cleveland was definitely warranted, and one that should likely only be sided with.

Best Bet: Cleveland -3

Buffalo (-1.5) vs Detroit; Total set at 42

So I've got the Browns remaining undefeated in the preseason this week, but I can't same the same thing about the Bills. Buffalo has already gone out and beat the Colts and Panthers – each by 8 or more points – through two weeks of play, but I think that's where the winning stops for them this August. Like the Browns this week, Buffalo has gotten enough support to flip the line to make them the favorite, and while it's a move worthy of respect for sure, it's not one that I can say I agree with.

Buffalo may be a team that's got realistic playoff expectations as well in 2019, but they aren't in need of being the loudest barker on the block in the sense that Cleveland is trying to grab that role. Bills fans also got to taste playoff atmosphere a just a couple of years ago, so there isn't that same sort of 'look at me, I'm the best' persona that Cleveland's emitted this summer as well. So compared to the first game on the card on Friday, Buffalo's a lot more comparable to Tampa Bay than the also-undefeated Browns in the sense that they've got nothing much left to prove this August other then to stay healthy and continue to prepare for Week 1.

On the flip side, Detroit's Matt Patricia has shown that preseason means very little to him, but for a Lions team that's looking for a much better year as well, they could see some results on the football field sooner rather then later.

Detroit got blown out by the Patriots in Week 1, and were on the wrong side of a shootout with Houston last week. Giving up 30 points each week has to be the biggest concern overall for a defensive guy like Patricia, and if the Lions are able to shut down a Bills starting unit that sees plenty of snaps, albeit not an offense known for explosion plays, that's a good sign of growth for Detroit going forward.

Then when you consider that Buffalo is on a 0-7 ATS run in the preseason when coming off consecutive wins and 0-5 ATS on the road in the preseason when off a win by 10+ points, this line move is one that's much easier to go against.

Detroit needs a confidence building performance going into a year that will likely end up being a struggle to see .500 again, and at home in this spot I believe they get it.

Best Bet: Detroit Lions ML