Announcement

**Udog** · 03-30-2019, 12:42 PM

AAF Week 8 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
Brandon DuBreuil

The Alliance of American Football enters Week 8, meaning there are just three weeks left until the postseason (if there is one). The playoff picture looks fairly set in the East as Orlando has clinched and Birmingham has a firm grip on second place. But the West is wide open and there is a big game that will go a long way in determining the top seed on Sunday night.

But first, some off-field news after league majority owner and chairman Tom Dundon said on Wednesday that the AAF could be in danger of folding if the NFLPA doesn't cooperate by allowing the league to use young NFL players.

"If the players union is not going to give us young players, we can't be a development league," Dundon, who made a $250 million investment into the AAF last month, told USA Today Sports on Wednesday. "We are looking at our options, one of which is discontinuing the league."

Dundon also said that he will make a decision about the league's future over the next couple of days.
Week 7 Betting Recap

Week 7 was not my best week, to say the least. My leans went 0-3-1, missing on Over 40.5 in the Salt Lake-San Antonio, San Diego +3.5, and Birmingham -3 while getting a push with Over 42 in the Orlando-Atlanta game.

My best bet was also a swing and a miss as San Antonio only managed to win by four when I had them at -5. Tough week but we saunter onto Week 8.

Season totals: Leans 9-14-1, Best Bets 2-4.

AAF Betting Trends

The Over/Under went 2-1-1 last week and is now 12-15-1 on the season.
The road team went 2-2 against the spread and is now 11-5 ATS over the last four weeks.
Underdogs won outright in two of the four games last week and have now won outright in five of the last eight.
Home teams won outright in three of the four games last week and are now 16-12 straight up on the year and 13-15 ATS.
Favorites are now 19-9 straight up and 14-14 ATS on the season.
No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).

Week 8 preview

ORLANDO APOLLOS (6-1) at MEMPHIS EXPRESS (2-5)

Opening line: Orlando -10, O/U 42
TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT

Orlando: 5-2 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U. On the road: 4-0 ATS, 2-1-1 O/U
Memphis: 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U. At home: 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U

Previous meeting: Orlando 21 Memphis 17 (Week 2)

Orlando got back on track following its first loss with a big win over Atlanta last week, clinching a playoff spot in the process. Garrett Gilbert was very efficient (19 of 23, 217 yards, TD) while De'Veon Smith ran for three touchdowns on 13 touches.

Memphis shocked Birmingham for its second win of the season by rallying to tie the game on a touchdown and two-point conversion with under a minute to go in regulation and then winning it in the league's first overtime game. Brandon Silvers started and finished the game at quarterback, with Johnny Manziel rotating in for a couple of series. Silvers played very well, going 24 of 35 for 266 yards and two touchdowns and should be under center for the majority of the game on Saturday.

Lean: Memphis +10 with two factors at play here. One is motivation, as Memphis looks to build off last week's comeback win and Silvers looks to keep his job over Manziel. I also question Orlando's motivation after locking up a playoff spot last week. Second is simply following the trend that no double-digit favorites have covered the spread yet in the AAF.

SALT DIEGO FLEET (3-4) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (2-5)

Opening line: Salt Lake -3, O/U 40.5

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

San Diego: 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U. On the road: 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U.
Salt Lake: 5-2 ATS, 2-5 O/U. At home: 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U.

Previous meeting: San Diego 27 Salt Lake 25 (Week 5)

The Fleet continue to prove that they are just a different team at home than on the road, getting smoked at Arizona last week as QB Mike Bercovici threw two interceptions and the defense allowed four touchdowns on just 59 plays. San Diego is 0-3 straight up and ATS on the road this season.

Salt Lake played well last week and had a chance to tie it late but their two-point conversion attempted resulted in an interception that was returned for a touchdown, giving San Antonio a four-point win. The Stallions have been solid at home where they've earned both of their wins and lost just once to the best team in the league (Orlando).

Lean: Salt Lake -3. Not an overly strong lean here and more of a play on trends with each team's ATS record and home/away splits.

ATLANTA LEGENDS (2-5) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (4-3)

Opening line: Birmingham -6, O/U 38

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

Atlanta: 2-5 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U. On the road: 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
Birmingham: 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U. At home: 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U.

Previous meeting: Birmingham 28 Atlanta 12 (Week 3)

Atlanta showed signs of hope with wins in Weeks 4 and 5 but is back to being the worst team in the league after being blown out at home in each of the last two weeks. The Legends now have -117 net points, which is 78 less than the next closest team (Memphis). They have a grand total of 12 points in their last two games and Aaron Murray has thrown five interceptions over that span.

Birmingham looked to have its fifth win of the season in the bag but a late collapse gave Memphis an overtime win last week. The Iron played decently on offense, with QB Luis Perez throwing for two touchdowns and Trent Richardson running for another, but the defense could not get off the field as the Express dominated the time of possession.

Lean: Birmingham first half -4 (projected — actual line will be released on game day). I don't have a lean on the total but will back the Iron to start strong in a game that I think they win easily (see best bet).

ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (4-3) AT SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (5-2)

Opening line: San Antonio -1.5, O/U 43.5

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

Arizona: 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U. On the road: 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
San Antonio: 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U. At home: 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U.

Previous meeting: San Antonio 29 Arizona 25 (Week 5)

The AAF saves the best for last in Week 8 as Arizona and San Antonio play with first place on the line.

The Hotshots have followed a three-game losing streak with back-to-back impressive wins over previously undefeated Orlando on the road two weeks ago and then crushing San Diego at home last week. Arizona has found a rushing game with 179 and 189 yards on the ground in each of the last two games.

San Antonio gets its second straight home game after playing four in a row on the road and should get a significant home-field advantage as the Commanders are averaging close to 30,000 fans on the season. They got the win but not the cover last week as they couldn't get much going on the ground with just 64 rushing yards against the Stallions.

Lean: Under 43.5. Here we have the highest total of the week between two teams that have combined for just one of six games to go Over the total when you take into account their road/home splits.

WEEK 8 BEST BET

Looking to break a two-week best bet slump by backing the Birmingham Iron -6. The Legends are just an absolute disaster right now, being blown out 36-6 and 37-6 at home in the past two weeks. The Iron return home after a two-game road trip and will be eager to get back in the win column after last week's late collapse.

**Udog** · 03-30-2019, 12:43 PM

AAF - Week 8 Best Bets

Week 8

While there were reports this week that the AAF is considering only being a one-year wonder as talks about folding have now entered the lexicon, with the way this season has gone with my best bets, I may actually have to shed a tear for the Alliance if it does indeed fold.

Last week's plays swept the board again, as Arizona cruised to an easy win at home over San Diego, and the Memphis Express manage to stage a 4th quarter comeback to force the first OT game in league history and ultimately win the game in the extra session. Those plays pushed the YTD record to 8-1 ATS in this league as we've hit crunch time in Year 1 with just three weeks left.

With the rest of the year being 'rematch' games across the board, there are two spots this weekend where I believe we see at least one 'flip-flopping' of results in relation to the first matchup between the respective squads.

YTD Record: 8-1 ATS

Best Bet #1: Atlanta/Birmingham Over 38

This is not the game that I'm expecting to see a different result here in regards to this total, as these two cashed an 'over' ticket back in Week 3 with Birmingham's 28-12 win. The Iron took control of that game in the 3rd quarter outscoring the Legends 11-0 in the frame, and from there the SU result was academic. And while I don't believe this return match will be as easy for Birmingham to get the W, the offensive surge and defensive regression we've seen from the Iron the past two weeks can't be ignored.

Birmingham has put up 32 and 25 points the past two weeks and what's telling there in terms of playing this 'over' is the fact that the Iron are just 1-1 SU in those games. Last week was the loss as they fell in OT to Memphis, but for a team that spent the first four weeks of the year not allowing more than 12 points in a single game, to be giving up an average of 30.33 points per game in the three weeks since then has to be concerning.

It's because of that lack of defense that Birmingham has had to turn to being more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball, putting up 28.5/game themselves these past two weeks in an effort to remain competitive. Granted, Atlanta may not have the explosive offense to really threaten the Iron in a similar fashion that San Diego and Orlando did in Weeks 5 and 6, but you could have easily said that about Memphis going into last week's game and the Express finished regulation with 25 points – their second highest point total of the year – before the OT win gave them a new high.

Atlanta's coaching staff has had to spend this week seeing these holes Birmingham's recent opponents have been exploiting, and although the Legends may not end up being as efficient in doing so, getting to 20+ points against this Iron defense that's been giving up about 10 points more than that the past three weeks isn't a huge ask.

With the Iron sitting as home chalk of a TD, I don't expect the Iron's offense to cool off much against this Legends defense that's allowed 30+ in back-to-back weeks themselves. I really believed this total would open up at 40 or more given the recent form of these defenses, as even if both sides do show improvement on that side of the ball, this number of 38 is still too low.

Best Bet #2: Arizona/San Antonio Under 43.5

Arizona and San Antonio treated fans to a great back-and-forth game in their first meeting, as San Antonio jumped out to a 26-0 halftime lead and when white-knuckled it the whole way in, winning the game 29-25. Three total INT's combined helped both sides go on their respective runs, but with this essentially being a game for 1st place in the West, I do believe we see the defenses show up with a much stronger effort for the entirety of the game.

Both defenses were able to have success against this foe for a half, and with the stakes much higher – home field advantage for a likely playoff rematch – than the Week 5 meeting, I doubt we see a similar type shootout this time around. Arizona and San Antonio will have looked at that film and diagnose what worked and what didn't from a defensive standpoint, and while both offenses will make adjustments as well, 43.5 is a high number for this league, even with scoring being up overall the past couple of weeks.

Two of San Antonio's three home games this year have seen them score less than 20 points themselves, and none of Arizona's three trips away from home have finished with more than 39 combined points. It's those tendencies that I believe hold true this week as the winner – especially if it's San Antonio – puts themselves in a good spot for the playoffs.

**Udog** · 03-30-2019, 12:44 PM

Armadillo: AAF Week 8

— Home teams are 16-12 SU, 13-15 vs spread thru seven weeks.
— Thru seven weeks, favorites are 14-14 vs spread, 19-9 SU.
— Under is 15-12-1 thru seven weeks.

Orlando (6-1) @ Memphis (2-5)— Apollos (-10) edged Memphis 21-17 in Week 3, holding on after leading 9-0 at halftime; Orlando won/covered all four of its road games; road team covered their last six games. Memphis played Manziel a little last week but Smilers saved their bacon, scoring last-minute TD in regulation, then winning game in OT. Express won its last two home games- they’re 3-0 vs spread at home. Memphis is scoring 25 ppg at home, 11.5 on road. Four of last five Orlando games stayed under the total; three of last four Memphis games went over.

San Diego (3-4) @ Salt Lake City (2-5)— San Diego had five takeaways (+4) in its 27-25 home win over SLC three weeks ago, but that is Fleet’s only win in last four games- it is also their only game this season with a positive TO ratio. Fleet is 3-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-3 when they don’t. Stallions lost three of last four games, are 2-1 at home, with only loss to Orlando; they’re 2-2 when they score 22+ points, 0-3 when they score less. Last five San Diego games went over total; five of last six Salt Lake City games stayed under.

Atlanta (2-5) @ Birmingham (4-2)— Atlanta lost its last two games by combined score of 73-12, outscored 33-0 in second half; they allowed 11-20 points in their two wins, 28+ points in their five losses. Legends turned ball over four times (-3) in their 28-12 home loss to Birmingham in Week 3. Atlanta has scored more than 14 points only once, three weeks ago vs Memphis. Birmingham lost three of its last four games after a 3-0 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-2 as a HF. Under is 4-1-2 in Atlanta games, last three Iron games went over.

Arizona (4-3) @ San Antonio (4-2)— Commanders (+7) won 29-25 in Arizona three weeks ago, with five takeaways (+3), but they almost blew a 25-0 halftime lead. Arizona won its last couple games since then; they’re 2-1 on road. Hotshots are 4-1 when they score more than 15 points. Last four weeks, Arizona outscored its opponents 50-17 in 2nd half of games. San Antonio won its last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 3-0 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. SA is +9 in turnovers their last four games, outscoring last three opponents 6-12 in first half. Under is 3-0 in Arizona’s road games.

**Udog** · 04-01-2019, 12:10 PM

AAF Week 8 betting recap, takeaways, and a Week 9 odds preview: Johnny goes down
Brandon DuBreuil

Wide receiver Marquis Bundy (18) and the Arizona Hotshots moved into first place in the West after their win over San Antonio on Sunday night.

The Alliance of American Football (AAF) made it through Week 8 after some off-field news made the future of the league a bit uneasy. But here we are with two regular-season games before the playoffs begin where the East is already set as Birmingham punched its postseason ticket with their win on Sunday. The Iron will travel to Orlando to take on the Apollos in the East final on April 21st.

Week 8 also saw Johnny Manziel leave with an ugly looking head injury. Manziel entered the game for a series in the middle of the first quarter and proceeded to march the Express down the field, but threw an interception in the red zone and then got hit in the head while trying to make a tackle on the return. He left the game looking woozy and did not return.

AAF Week 8 Scores

Orlando Apollos 34 at Memphis Express 31

Memphis covers as a home underdog and the total goes Over.

San Diego Fleet 3 at Salt Lake Stallions 8

Salt Lake covers as a home favorite and the total goes Under.

Atlanta Legends 9 at Birmingham Iron 17

Birmingham covers as a home favorite and the total goes Under.

Arizona Hotshots 23 at San Antonio Commanders 6

Arizona covers as a road underdog and the total goes Under.

Week 8 Betting Takeaways

Unders are back

The Under was a hot trend earlier in the season and it made its return in Week 8 with three of the four games failing to reach the total. The Under is now 18-13-1 on the season.

Arizona stays hot

The Hotshots are scorching after earning their third straight win on Sunday night in convincing form at San Antonio. Arizona is now tied atop the West standings with the Commanders and the Hotshots hold the tiebreaker.

Home comeback

At the midpoint of Week 7, we were talking about a remarkable run that saw the road team go 11-3 ATS over the previous 14 games. Since then, the home team has covered in five of six games, with Arizona snapping a five-game streak last night. Home teams are now 16-16 ATS on the season.

Bad beat of the week

Not much in terms of bad beats this week but if anyone was holding Memphis on the moneyline, my apologies go out to you. The Express gave up two touchdowns in the final 5:05 to lose outright to Orlando, though they still managed to cover as 10-point underdogs.

Week 9 Betting Preview

The AAF lines for next weekend won’t be released until Wednesday or Thursday, but I’ll take my weekly shot at predicting the Week 9 odds and totals.

Memphis Express at San Antonio Commanders (Saturday, Noon ET)

Projected line: San Antonio -6, O/U 41

San Diego Fleet at Orlando Apollos (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Projected line: Orlando -9, O/U 39.5

Salt Lake Stallions at Atlanta Legends (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET)

Projected line: Salt Lake -1, O/U 36.5

Birmingham Iron at Arizona Hotshots (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)

Projected line: Arizona -3.5, 40.5

AAF Standings

East Division

Orlando Apollos 7-1
Birmingham Iron 5-3
Atlanta Legends 2-6
Memphis Express 2-6

West Division

Arizona Hotshots 5-3
San Antonio Commanders 5-3
San Diego Fleet 3-5
Salt Lake Stallions 3-5

Announcement

AAF Week 8 preview

AAF Week 8 preview

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment