AAF Week 7 preview

[Udog]

— Home teams are 13-11 SU, 11-13 vs spread thru six weeks.

— Thru six weeks, favorites are 12-12 vs spread, 16-8 SU.

— Under is 13-10-1 thru six weeks.

[Udog]

AAF Week 7 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
Brandon DuBreuil

Will Johnny Manziel make his AAF debut with the Memphis Express this weekend? He's not starting but is available off the bench.

We are officially into the home stretch in the inaugural season of the Alliance of American Football (AAF) with just four games remaining. This big question this week is whether Johnny Manziel makes his AAF debut with the Memphis Express this weekend. There are also some big games on tap, including one with playoff implications in the West.

Week 6 Betting Recap

Not a great week as my two-week best bet winning streak came to an end as the Atlanta Legends fell flat on their faces in getting smoked by a San Antonio squad that was playing its fourth consecutive road game.

My leans went 2-2, hitting on the Under in the Arizona-Orlando game (the Apollos are now 0-4 to the Under at home) and the Over in the San Antonio-Atlanta game (the Legends are now 3-0 to the Over at home), while missing on Memphis +8 (it lost by 13) and San Diego -6 (it lost outright at home on a walk-off field goal).

Season totals: Leans 9-11, Best Bets 2-3

AAF Betting Trends

The Over/Under went 2-2 last week and is now 10-14 on the season.
The road team went 3-1 against the spread for the third straight week.
Underdogs won outright in three of the four games last week.
Home teams are now 11-13 ATS on the season and 13-11 straight up.
Favorites are now 16-8 straight up and 12-12 ATS on the season.
No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).

ORLANDO APOLLOS (5-1) at ATLANTA LEGENDS (2-4)

Opening line: Orlando -8.5, O/U 42

TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT

Orlando: 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U. On the road: 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U.
Atlanta: 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U. At home: 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U.

Previous meeting: Orlando 40 Atlanta 6 (Week 2 in Orlando).

I’ve been hinting at an Orlando letdown for a few weeks now and it finally happened last week as it was upset at home by Arizona. The Apollos almost stayed undefeated but their comeback attempt was cut short when they committed a false start while attempting to spike the ball on the Hotshots’ seven-yard line with four seconds remaining, which resulted in a penalty that ended the game.

Atlanta was in a perfect situation for a big home win last week but put in an absolutely awful performance in getting trounced 37-6. Aaron Murray, who had been playing decently well as the starter, imploded for three interceptions while throwing for just 5.2 yards per attempt. He was eventually pulled for Peter Pujals but should be back under center on Saturday.

Lean: Over 42. Orlando has shown an ability to score on the road, while the Legends do pretty much all of their scoring at home. I like Murray to bounce back and for the Apollos to run up the score a bit coming off their first loss. They should be able to do so quite easily against an Atlanta defense has allowed 20 or more points in all but one game so far this season.


SALT LAKE STALLIONS (2-4) at SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (4-2)

Opening line: San Antonio -5, O/U 40.5

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

Salt Lake: 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U. On the road: 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U.
San Antonio: 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U. At home: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U.

Previous meeting: None

You may as well throw out any San Antonio home trends seeing as it hasn’t played a game in the Alamodome since Week 2. The Commanders return home on a roll with three straight wins and should get a boost from a fired-up crowd of around 30,000 (San Antonio had crowds of 27,857 and 29,176 in its first two home games). San Antonio seems to have found an offensive rhythm with 29 and 37 points for in its last two. The defense, however, continues to be inconsistent. Here are its points against for each week, starting in Week 1: 6, 37, 31, 11, 25, 6.

Salt Lake doesn't have a win yet away from home. That's the bad news. The good news is that the Stallions seem to have developed a bit of offensive consistency and have scored between 22-25 points in four of their six games so far this season.

Lean: Over 40.5. Here's hoping that the bad version of the Commanders defense shows up and that San Antonio puts up enough points on offense so that Salt Lake doesn't have to do too much.


SAN DIEGO FLEET (3-3) at ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (3-3)

Opening line: Arizona -3.5, O/U 39.5

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

San Diego: 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U. On the road: 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U.
Arizona: 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U. At home: 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U.

Previous meeting: None

This is probably the most important game of the AAF season to date as the Hotshots and Fleet are currently tied for the second and final playoff spot in the West. In fact, the winner could find itself tied for first if San Antonio loses at home to Salt Lake.

There's no doubt that the Fleet have been a different team at home and on the road. Their two road games resulted in a 15-6 loss at San Antonio in Week 1 and a 26-23 loss at Memphis in Week 3 — though it should be noted that was the game where starting QB Philip Nelson got hurt in the second quarter and then third-stringer Alex Ross fumbled away a huge lead in the second half.

If someone can figure out this Arizona team, I'm all ears (on Twitter). The Hotshots have looked like one of the league's best in Weeks 1, 2, and 6 and one of the league's worst in Weeks 3, 4, and 5. They also seem to play better on the road, perhaps because they average under 10,000 fans a game in Tempe.

Lean: San Diego +3.5. If Arizona loses last week at Orlando — and the Hotshots almost blew the game — this line is probably San Diego -1.5. The Hotshots are 0-2 in their last two home games and looked really bad in three of those four halves.


BIRMINGHAM IRON (4-2) AT MEMPHIS EXPRESS (1-5)

Opening line: Birmingham -3, O/U 37

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

Birmingham: 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U. On the road: 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U.

Memphis: 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U. At home: 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U.

Previous meeting: Birmingham 26 Memphis 0 (Week 1 in Birmingham)

The Iron play their second consecutive road game after playing just their second road game of the season in last Sunday's win in San Diego. Their quarterback situation is unclear — Keith Price got the start last week but left with an undisclosed injury. Luis Perez, the team's starter in Weeks 1-5, came on in relief and played his best game of the season: 27 of 49, 359 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Coach Tim Lewis hasn't named a starter yet for Week 7.

Memphis' quarterback situation is more clear: Brandon Silvers gets the start and Johnny Manziel is available off the bench. Silvers was average at best in Week 6 in relief of the injured Zach Mettenberger: 23 of 37, 242 yards, TD, fumble. The Express are bad and won't make the playoffs, making it only a matter of time until they play Manziel to help boost attendance and ratings.

Lean: Birmingham -3. It shouldn't matter who is at QB for the Iron as their defense should be able to hold the Express to minimal points. Memphis' offensive line has allowed 10 sacks over its last two games, including a whopping seven last week against Salt Lake. The Iron should win this one easily.

WEEK 7 BEST BET

Looking to bounce back and even my best bet record at 3-3 with the San Antonio Commanders -5. This team should get a huge lift from being back home after an unprecedented four-game road trip during which it went 3-1. The Commanders should also be motivated to keep their one-game lead atop the West Division. Salt Lake has had its moments so far this season but most of those moments have come at home as the Stallions are 0-3 on the road. I think the Commanders should be favored by seven or eight so I'll gladly take the current line at -5.

[Udog]

AAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Orlando (5-1) @ Atlanta (2-4)— Apollos lost for first time last week, turning ball over twice (-2) after being +5 in first five games; Orlando (-5.5) pounded Atlanta 40-6 in Week 1, getting four takeaways (+3) on a rainy night. Apollos won/covered all three road games, winning by 8-9-17 points. Legends lost two of three home games; they’ve been outscored 79-27 in 2nd half of games this season. Atlanta scored 14 or fewer points in five of their six games- they’re 2-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 0-4 if they don’t. Three of last four Orlando games stayed under total;

Salt Lake City (2-4) @ San Antonio (4-2)— First home game in four weeks for Commanders, who won/covered last three weeks. San Antonio has 11 takeaways in its last three games, going +3 in turnovers all three games- they led 26-0/26-6 at half of last two games. Stallions lost all three road games, by 16-3-2 points; they’re 1-2 vs spread as an underdog. Salt Lake turned ball over nine times in its last two games (-6), Four of last five SLC games stayed under total; four of last five San Antonio games went over.

San Diego (3-3) @ Arizona (3-3)— Visiting Fleet is 3-1 at home, 0-2 on road, losing by 9-3 points; San Diego allowed 27.7 ppg in last three games, after giving up only 12.7 ppg in first three games. Fleet scored 23+ points in each of last five games. Arizona lost three of last four games, but they gave Orlando their first loss LW; Hotshots lost their last two home games, by total of seven points- their last three games were all decided by 5 or fewer points. Last four San Diego games went over total; four of last five Arizona games stayed under.

Birmingham (4-2) @ Memphis (1-5)— Silvers will start at QB for Memphis, but Manziel might play; he would be 4th Express QB this year. Iron (-3) blanked Memphis 26-0 in season opener; Express threw for only 99 yards that night. Birmingham won both its road games, scoring 28-32 points; they’re scoring 15.7 ppg at home. Iron has six takeaways in two road tilts (+3), six in four home games (-2). Express split pair of home games that were decided by total of five points. Under is 3-2-1 in Birmingham games, 4-2 in Memphis games.

[Udog]

AAF Week 7 betting recap, takeaways, and a Week 8 odds preview: Johnny Manziel debuts
Brandon DuBreuil

The Orlando Apollos are the first to clinch an AAF playoff spot after their win over Atlanta in Week 7.

We are through seven weeks of the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and the playoff picture is starting to take shape after the Orlando Apollos became the first team to clinch a place in the postseason.

There was also a Johnny Manziel sighting as the former Heisman Trophy winner made his AAF debut late in the second quarter, leading a drive down the field before stalling in the red zone and then settling for a field-goal attempt, which the Express did not convert. Manziel was rotated in and out of the game with quarterback Brandon Silvers and finished 3 of 5 for 48 yards while rushing twice for 20 yards.

The AAF made some notable off-field news as well when it announced late last week that it was moving the championship game from Nevada to Texas. The title game was set to be held at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas but will now be held in Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas, a facility that is owned and operated by Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys.


AAF Week 7 Scores

Orlando Apollos 36 at Atlanta Legends 6
Orlando covers as a road favorite and the total is a push.


Salt Lake Stallions 15 at San Antonio Commanders 19
Salt Lake covers as a road underdog and the game goes Under.


San Diego Fleet 15 at Arizona Hotshots 32
Arizona covers as a home favorite and the game goes Over.


Birmingham Iron 25 at Memphis Express 31 (OT)
Memphis covers as a home underdog and the game goes Over.


Week 7 Betting Takeaways

Money for the road

Both road teams won and covered the spread on Saturday to make it 11 times in the previous 14 games that the road team (whether being a fave or a dog) had covered the number. But as soon as I keyed in on that trend it reversed itself as both home teams covered the spread on Sunday. Road teams are now 11-5 ATS over the last four weeks.

Arizona trending

Are the Hotshots back? Arizona is suddenly surging after winning its second straight in convincing fashion on Sunday afternoon. The Hotshots now sit alone in second place in the West Division and are looking more like the team that came out of the gates flying in Weeks 1 and 2.

Orlando statement

Anyone who was thinking that the Apollos might be slowing down, can park that train of thought. Orlando was back to being its dominant self on Saturday, crushing Atlanta on the road one week after suffering its first loss of the season to Arizona.


Bad beat(s) of the week

It won’t go down as one of the worst beats of the season but Over bettors in the Orlando-Atlanta game were likely left with a bitter taste in their mouths after the game total hit 42 with 10:03 remaining but there would be no more points scored, leaving total bettors with a push.

A shout out also goes to Birmingham -3/-3.5 backers as the Iron held the lead all game, only to allow Memphis to tie the game with 29 seconds remaining in regulation and then win it in overtime.


Week 8 Betting Preview

The AAF lines for next weekend won’t be released until Wednesday or Thursday, but I’ll take my weekly shot at predicting the Week 8 odds and totals.


Orlando at Memphis (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Orlando -8.5, 43


San Diego at Salt Lake (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Salt Lake -2.5, 41


Atlanta at Birmingham (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Birmingham -8, 42


Arizona at San Antonio (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)
Projected line: San Antonio -3, 42


AAF Standings

East Division
Orlando Apollos 6-1
Birmingham Iron 4-3
Atlanta Legends 2-5
Memphis Express 2-5

West Division
San Antonio Commanders 5-2
Arizona Hotshots 4-3
San Diego Fleet 3-4
Salt Lake Stallions 2-5

[Udog]

AAF Week 8 preview

AAF Week 8 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
Brandon DuBreuil

The Alliance of American Football enters Week 8, meaning there are just three weeks left until the postseason (if there is one). The playoff picture looks fairly set in the East as Orlando has clinched and Birmingham has a firm grip on second place. But the West is wide open and there is a big game that will go a long way in determining the top seed on Sunday night.

But first, some off-field news after league majority owner and chairman Tom Dundon said on Wednesday that the AAF could be in danger of folding if the NFLPA doesn't cooperate by allowing the league to use young NFL players.

"If the players union is not going to give us young players, we can't be a development league," Dundon, who made a $250 million investment into the AAF last month, told USA Today Sports on Wednesday. "We are looking at our options, one of which is discontinuing the league."

Dundon also said that he will make a decision about the league's future over the next couple of days.
Week 7 Betting Recap

Week 7 was not my best week, to say the least. My leans went 0-3-1, missing on Over 40.5 in the Salt Lake-San Antonio, San Diego +3.5, and Birmingham -3 while getting a push with Over 42 in the Orlando-Atlanta game.

My best bet was also a swing and a miss as San Antonio only managed to win by four when I had them at -5. Tough week but we saunter onto Week 8.

Season totals: Leans 9-14-1, Best Bets 2-4.


AAF Betting Trends

The Over/Under went 2-1-1 last week and is now 12-15-1 on the season.
The road team went 2-2 against the spread and is now 11-5 ATS over the last four weeks.
Underdogs won outright in two of the four games last week and have now won outright in five of the last eight.
Home teams won outright in three of the four games last week and are now 16-12 straight up on the year and 13-15 ATS.
Favorites are now 19-9 straight up and 14-14 ATS on the season.
No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).


Week 8 preview

ORLANDO APOLLOS (6-1) at MEMPHIS EXPRESS (2-5)

Opening line: Orlando -10, O/U 42
TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT

Orlando: 5-2 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U. On the road: 4-0 ATS, 2-1-1 O/U
Memphis: 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U. At home: 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U

Previous meeting: Orlando 21 Memphis 17 (Week 2)

Orlando got back on track following its first loss with a big win over Atlanta last week, clinching a playoff spot in the process. Garrett Gilbert was very efficient (19 of 23, 217 yards, TD) while De'Veon Smith ran for three touchdowns on 13 touches.

Memphis shocked Birmingham for its second win of the season by rallying to tie the game on a touchdown and two-point conversion with under a minute to go in regulation and then winning it in the league's first overtime game. Brandon Silvers started and finished the game at quarterback, with Johnny Manziel rotating in for a couple of series. Silvers played very well, going 24 of 35 for 266 yards and two touchdowns and should be under center for the majority of the game on Saturday.

Lean: Memphis +10 with two factors at play here. One is motivation, as Memphis looks to build off last week's comeback win and Silvers looks to keep his job over Manziel. I also question Orlando's motivation after locking up a playoff spot last week. Second is simply following the trend that no double-digit favorites have covered the spread yet in the AAF.


SALT DIEGO FLEET (3-4) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (2-5)

Opening line: Salt Lake -3, O/U 40.5

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

San Diego: 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U. On the road: 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U.
Salt Lake: 5-2 ATS, 2-5 O/U. At home: 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U.

Previous meeting: San Diego 27 Salt Lake 25 (Week 5)

The Fleet continue to prove that they are just a different team at home than on the road, getting smoked at Arizona last week as QB Mike Bercovici threw two interceptions and the defense allowed four touchdowns on just 59 plays. San Diego is 0-3 straight up and ATS on the road this season.

Salt Lake played well last week and had a chance to tie it late but their two-point conversion attempted resulted in an interception that was returned for a touchdown, giving San Antonio a four-point win. The Stallions have been solid at home where they've earned both of their wins and lost just once to the best team in the league (Orlando).

Lean: Salt Lake -3. Not an overly strong lean here and more of a play on trends with each team's ATS record and home/away splits.


ATLANTA LEGENDS (2-5) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (4-3)

Opening line: Birmingham -6, O/U 38

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

Atlanta: 2-5 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U. On the road: 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
Birmingham: 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U. At home: 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U.

Previous meeting: Birmingham 28 Atlanta 12 (Week 3)

Atlanta showed signs of hope with wins in Weeks 4 and 5 but is back to being the worst team in the league after being blown out at home in each of the last two weeks. The Legends now have -117 net points, which is 78 less than the next closest team (Memphis). They have a grand total of 12 points in their last two games and Aaron Murray has thrown five interceptions over that span.

Birmingham looked to have its fifth win of the season in the bag but a late collapse gave Memphis an overtime win last week. The Iron played decently on offense, with QB Luis Perez throwing for two touchdowns and Trent Richardson running for another, but the defense could not get off the field as the Express dominated the time of possession.

Lean: Birmingham first half -4 (projected — actual line will be released on game day). I don't have a lean on the total but will back the Iron to start strong in a game that I think they win easily (see best bet).


ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (4-3) AT SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (5-2)

Opening line: San Antonio -1.5, O/U 43.5

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

Arizona: 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U. On the road: 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U.
San Antonio: 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U. At home: 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U.

Previous meeting: San Antonio 29 Arizona 25 (Week 5)

The AAF saves the best for last in Week 8 as Arizona and San Antonio play with first place on the line.

The Hotshots have followed a three-game losing streak with back-to-back impressive wins over previously undefeated Orlando on the road two weeks ago and then crushing San Diego at home last week. Arizona has found a rushing game with 179 and 189 yards on the ground in each of the last two games.

San Antonio gets its second straight home game after playing four in a row on the road and should get a significant home-field advantage as the Commanders are averaging close to 30,000 fans on the season. They got the win but not the cover last week as they couldn't get much going on the ground with just 64 rushing yards against the Stallions.

Lean: Under 43.5. Here we have the highest total of the week between two teams that have combined for just one of six games to go Over the total when you take into account their road/home splits.

WEEK 8 BEST BET

Looking to break a two-week best bet slump by backing the Birmingham Iron -6. The Legends are just an absolute disaster right now, being blown out 36-6 and 37-6 at home in the past two weeks. The Iron return home after a two-game road trip and will be eager to get back in the win column after last week's late collapse.

[Udog]

AAF - Week 8 Best Bets


Week 8

While there were reports this week that the AAF is considering only being a one-year wonder as talks about folding have now entered the lexicon, with the way this season has gone with my best bets, I may actually have to shed a tear for the Alliance if it does indeed fold.

Last week's plays swept the board again, as Arizona cruised to an easy win at home over San Diego, and the Memphis Express manage to stage a 4th quarter comeback to force the first OT game in league history and ultimately win the game in the extra session. Those plays pushed the YTD record to 8-1 ATS in this league as we've hit crunch time in Year 1 with just three weeks left.

With the rest of the year being 'rematch' games across the board, there are two spots this weekend where I believe we see at least one 'flip-flopping' of results in relation to the first matchup between the respective squads.

YTD Record: 8-1 ATS

Best Bet #1: Atlanta/Birmingham Over 38

This is not the game that I'm expecting to see a different result here in regards to this total, as these two cashed an 'over' ticket back in Week 3 with Birmingham's 28-12 win. The Iron took control of that game in the 3rd quarter outscoring the Legends 11-0 in the frame, and from there the SU result was academic. And while I don't believe this return match will be as easy for Birmingham to get the W, the offensive surge and defensive regression we've seen from the Iron the past two weeks can't be ignored.

Birmingham has put up 32 and 25 points the past two weeks and what's telling there in terms of playing this 'over' is the fact that the Iron are just 1-1 SU in those games. Last week was the loss as they fell in OT to Memphis, but for a team that spent the first four weeks of the year not allowing more than 12 points in a single game, to be giving up an average of 30.33 points per game in the three weeks since then has to be concerning.

It's because of that lack of defense that Birmingham has had to turn to being more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball, putting up 28.5/game themselves these past two weeks in an effort to remain competitive. Granted, Atlanta may not have the explosive offense to really threaten the Iron in a similar fashion that San Diego and Orlando did in Weeks 5 and 6, but you could have easily said that about Memphis going into last week's game and the Express finished regulation with 25 points – their second highest point total of the year – before the OT win gave them a new high.

Atlanta's coaching staff has had to spend this week seeing these holes Birmingham's recent opponents have been exploiting, and although the Legends may not end up being as efficient in doing so, getting to 20+ points against this Iron defense that's been giving up about 10 points more than that the past three weeks isn't a huge ask.

With the Iron sitting as home chalk of a TD, I don't expect the Iron's offense to cool off much against this Legends defense that's allowed 30+ in back-to-back weeks themselves. I really believed this total would open up at 40 or more given the recent form of these defenses, as even if both sides do show improvement on that side of the ball, this number of 38 is still too low.

Best Bet #2: Arizona/San Antonio Under 43.5

Arizona and San Antonio treated fans to a great back-and-forth game in their first meeting, as San Antonio jumped out to a 26-0 halftime lead and when white-knuckled it the whole way in, winning the game 29-25. Three total INT's combined helped both sides go on their respective runs, but with this essentially being a game for 1st place in the West, I do believe we see the defenses show up with a much stronger effort for the entirety of the game.

Both defenses were able to have success against this foe for a half, and with the stakes much higher – home field advantage for a likely playoff rematch – than the Week 5 meeting, I doubt we see a similar type shootout this time around. Arizona and San Antonio will have looked at that film and diagnose what worked and what didn't from a defensive standpoint, and while both offenses will make adjustments as well, 43.5 is a high number for this league, even with scoring being up overall the past couple of weeks.

Two of San Antonio's three home games this year have seen them score less than 20 points themselves, and none of Arizona's three trips away from home have finished with more than 39 combined points. It's those tendencies that I believe hold true this week as the winner – especially if it's San Antonio – puts themselves in a good spot for the playoffs.