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AAF Week 5 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
Brandon DuBreuil
Arizona Hotshots wide receiver Josh Huff is tackled by Atlanta Legends defensive back Doran Grant in the Legends' Week 4 win over the Hotshots.
It's Week 5 from the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we dive into the betting odds and totals (how low can they go?) while taking a look at some trends, leans, and a best bet.
Week 4 Betting Recap
Finally! I’m on the board with my best bets as the Under 44.5 in the Orlando-Salt Lake game on Saturday night cashed easily in the snow. This game was bet down heavily before game time with a number closer to 40, but that was still an easy winner as players dealt with footing issues on the slick field.
My leans didn’t have the same luck, however, going just 1-3. I was able to cash in on the Under 39.5 in the San Antonio-Birmingham game (again, weather was an issue), while missing on the Under in the San Diego-Memphis game, Salt Lake +4.5, and the Over 41.5 in the Atlanta-Arizona match.
Season totals: Leans 5-7, Best Bets 1-2
AAF Betting Trends
The Under went 3-1 last week and is now 12-4 on the season.
The road team went 3-1 against the spread in Week 4.
Home teams are now 9-7 ATS on the season and 10-6 straight up.
Underdogs went 3-1 straight up and ATS last week.
Favorites are now 12-4 straight up and 9-7 ATS on the season.
No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).
AAF Week 5 Odds and Totals
ORLANDO APOLLOS (4-0) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (3-1)
Opening line: Orlando -3.5, O/U 34
TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT
Week 5 kicks off with a battle between the top-two teams in the league, but here’s a hot take: Orlando is the only good team in the AAF; everyone else is mediocre. And yes, that includes the Iron.
Birmingham’s lack of offense finally caught up to it last week in scoring just 11 points in a home loss to San Antonio. The Iron average just 19 points a game. Quarterback Luis Perez hasn’t thrown a touchdown yet on the season and hasn’t eclipsed 5.2 yards per attempt since Week 1. The defense remains elite and is giving up just 8.3 points per game (!) but the Iron need to develop some sort of offensive rhythm.
Orlando continues to impress week after week. The explosive offense they showed in Weeks 1 and 2 (38.5 points per game) has slowed down (20.5 points per game in Weeks 3 and 4) but the defense has stepped up and is allowing 14 points per game over the last two weeks. Garrett Gilbert is the unquestioned best quarterback in the league right now and his 1,071 passing yards give him 274 more than the next closest QB.
Note that weather could again be an issue in Birmingham as Saturday currently calls for severe thunderstorms, a 90 percent chance of rain, and 10-20 mph winds.
Lean: Under 34 — but don't bet this one just yet. Watch the weather forecast closely and if it holds the Under should be the play. If the forecast improves, I'd prefer Orlando -3.5.
SALT LAKE STALLIONS (1-3) at SAN DIEGO FLEET (2-2)
Opening line: San Diego -6, O/U 36
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The biggest storyline here is that San Diego will be without quarterback Philip Nelson for at least a month with a fractured clavicle. The Fleet will go back to Mike Bercovici, who went 15-of-25 for 176 yards and two interceptions in Week 1 before getting benched. It was interesting that coach Mike Martz decided to play Alex Ross under center last week after Nelson got hurt, but he was bad, going 8 of 18 for 80 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and two lost fumbles. Obviously, Martz doesn’t think much of Bercovici or Ross.
Salt Lake was unable to build on its Week 3 win as the Stallions just couldn't get much offense going on the snow-covered field last Saturday night against Orlando, managing just 265 yards on 53 offensive plays. The Stallions now have three losses but it should be noted that two of those have come against Orlando and Birmingham, arguably the two best teams in the league. This is a huge week for Salt Lake as it takes on a Fleet squad without its starting quarterback as it will pull into a three-way tie for second place in the West with a win.
Lean: Under 36. The Fleet will have starting DE Demontre Moore back (he missed last week) and I expect them to bounce back defensively while also running the ball a lot to take the pressure off of Bercovici.
MEMPHIS EXPRESS (1-3) at ATLANTA LEGENDS (1-3)
Opening line: Atlanta -1.5, O/U 38.5
TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Here we have two teams with new quarterbacks who led their squads to their first wins last weekend. For Memphis, that’s Zach Mettenberger who was 18 of 25 for 174 yards and a touchdown last week and is now 27 of 37 for 294 yards and three passing touchdowns through six quarters of football. An important note for Express backers, however: They likely don’t win last week if Nelson doesn’t get hurt as the Fleet had jumped out to a 20-3 lead but then Ross basically gave the game to Memphis with turnovers.
Atlanta fans finally got what they were waiting for as Aaron Murray took over from Matt Simms for the second series after Simms cut his hand open taking a sack. Murray looked good, throwing for 254 yards on 20-of-33 passing and adding 54 rushing yards on seven attempts. The Legends still have serious red-zone issues, however, and their 11 points per game needs to take a serious spike upwards if they want to win a couple more games this season. Murray provides hope, though, as does the defense’s performance in Week 4 where it allowed 11 points on the road after giving up 30.6 points per game through the first three weeks.
Lean: Over 38.5. I'm expecting the Legends' offense to continue to improve under Murray and as the team moves past the departure of offensive coordinator Rich Bartel just prior to Week 3. Ditto with the Express as Mettenberger continues to get more comfortable as the starter.
SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (2-2) at ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-2)
Opening line: Arizona -2.5, O/U 40
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
What has happened to the Hotshots? After looking like Orlando’s only competitor through the first two weeks, Arizona now finds itself in a battle to make the playoffs in the extremely tight West Division after losing each of the last two weeks to teams that hadn’t posted a win yet. Week 4 was particularly shocking as the Hotshots managed just 11 points at home to a Atlanta defense that had been torched in Weeks 1-3.
Arizona QB John Wolford threw for just 185 yards on 17-of-31 passing against last week and was perhaps still feeling the effects of the back injury he suffered in Week 3. One bright spot for the Hotshots was running back Jhurell Pressley, who galloped for 110 yards on just 14 carries. Expect him to be a big part of Arizona’s offense this week.
San Antonio evened its record at 2-2 after suffering back-to-back losses in Weeks 2 and 3. The big question is which Commanders defense will show up this week: The one from Weeks 1 and 4 that allowed six and 11 points, or the one in Weeks 2 and 3 that allowed 37 and 31 points. San Antonio seems more predictable on the other side of the ball — the Commanders are brutal on offense right now with just 23 points in their last two games.
Lean: Under 40. Arizona has gone Under in two of its three home games, while San Antonio has gone Under in both of its road games. Expect the Hotshots to rely more on the running game as Wolford regresses and the Commanders to continue their offensive woes.
WEEK 5 BEST BET
My best bet for Week 5 is the Salt Lake Stallions +6 for a few of reasons. First, San Diego's QB situation is now amongst the worst in the league without Nelson. Second, we're giving the Stallions offense a pass last week in the snow and hoping they return back to the form they were in when they put up 23 points in Week 3. Third, if there was ever a must-win in Week 5 of the AAF, this is it for the Stallions as they try to stay in the top-half of the jammed West Division standings.
Brandon DuBreuil
Arizona Hotshots wide receiver Josh Huff is tackled by Atlanta Legends defensive back Doran Grant in the Legends' Week 4 win over the Hotshots.
It's Week 5 from the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we dive into the betting odds and totals (how low can they go?) while taking a look at some trends, leans, and a best bet.
Week 4 Betting Recap
Finally! I’m on the board with my best bets as the Under 44.5 in the Orlando-Salt Lake game on Saturday night cashed easily in the snow. This game was bet down heavily before game time with a number closer to 40, but that was still an easy winner as players dealt with footing issues on the slick field.
My leans didn’t have the same luck, however, going just 1-3. I was able to cash in on the Under 39.5 in the San Antonio-Birmingham game (again, weather was an issue), while missing on the Under in the San Diego-Memphis game, Salt Lake +4.5, and the Over 41.5 in the Atlanta-Arizona match.
Season totals: Leans 5-7, Best Bets 1-2
AAF Betting Trends
The Under went 3-1 last week and is now 12-4 on the season.
The road team went 3-1 against the spread in Week 4.
Home teams are now 9-7 ATS on the season and 10-6 straight up.
Underdogs went 3-1 straight up and ATS last week.
Favorites are now 12-4 straight up and 9-7 ATS on the season.
No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).
AAF Week 5 Odds and Totals
ORLANDO APOLLOS (4-0) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (3-1)
Opening line: Orlando -3.5, O/U 34
TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT
Week 5 kicks off with a battle between the top-two teams in the league, but here’s a hot take: Orlando is the only good team in the AAF; everyone else is mediocre. And yes, that includes the Iron.
Birmingham’s lack of offense finally caught up to it last week in scoring just 11 points in a home loss to San Antonio. The Iron average just 19 points a game. Quarterback Luis Perez hasn’t thrown a touchdown yet on the season and hasn’t eclipsed 5.2 yards per attempt since Week 1. The defense remains elite and is giving up just 8.3 points per game (!) but the Iron need to develop some sort of offensive rhythm.
Orlando continues to impress week after week. The explosive offense they showed in Weeks 1 and 2 (38.5 points per game) has slowed down (20.5 points per game in Weeks 3 and 4) but the defense has stepped up and is allowing 14 points per game over the last two weeks. Garrett Gilbert is the unquestioned best quarterback in the league right now and his 1,071 passing yards give him 274 more than the next closest QB.
Note that weather could again be an issue in Birmingham as Saturday currently calls for severe thunderstorms, a 90 percent chance of rain, and 10-20 mph winds.
Lean: Under 34 — but don't bet this one just yet. Watch the weather forecast closely and if it holds the Under should be the play. If the forecast improves, I'd prefer Orlando -3.5.
SALT LAKE STALLIONS (1-3) at SAN DIEGO FLEET (2-2)
Opening line: San Diego -6, O/U 36
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The biggest storyline here is that San Diego will be without quarterback Philip Nelson for at least a month with a fractured clavicle. The Fleet will go back to Mike Bercovici, who went 15-of-25 for 176 yards and two interceptions in Week 1 before getting benched. It was interesting that coach Mike Martz decided to play Alex Ross under center last week after Nelson got hurt, but he was bad, going 8 of 18 for 80 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and two lost fumbles. Obviously, Martz doesn’t think much of Bercovici or Ross.
Salt Lake was unable to build on its Week 3 win as the Stallions just couldn't get much offense going on the snow-covered field last Saturday night against Orlando, managing just 265 yards on 53 offensive plays. The Stallions now have three losses but it should be noted that two of those have come against Orlando and Birmingham, arguably the two best teams in the league. This is a huge week for Salt Lake as it takes on a Fleet squad without its starting quarterback as it will pull into a three-way tie for second place in the West with a win.
Lean: Under 36. The Fleet will have starting DE Demontre Moore back (he missed last week) and I expect them to bounce back defensively while also running the ball a lot to take the pressure off of Bercovici.
MEMPHIS EXPRESS (1-3) at ATLANTA LEGENDS (1-3)
Opening line: Atlanta -1.5, O/U 38.5
TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Here we have two teams with new quarterbacks who led their squads to their first wins last weekend. For Memphis, that’s Zach Mettenberger who was 18 of 25 for 174 yards and a touchdown last week and is now 27 of 37 for 294 yards and three passing touchdowns through six quarters of football. An important note for Express backers, however: They likely don’t win last week if Nelson doesn’t get hurt as the Fleet had jumped out to a 20-3 lead but then Ross basically gave the game to Memphis with turnovers.
Atlanta fans finally got what they were waiting for as Aaron Murray took over from Matt Simms for the second series after Simms cut his hand open taking a sack. Murray looked good, throwing for 254 yards on 20-of-33 passing and adding 54 rushing yards on seven attempts. The Legends still have serious red-zone issues, however, and their 11 points per game needs to take a serious spike upwards if they want to win a couple more games this season. Murray provides hope, though, as does the defense’s performance in Week 4 where it allowed 11 points on the road after giving up 30.6 points per game through the first three weeks.
Lean: Over 38.5. I'm expecting the Legends' offense to continue to improve under Murray and as the team moves past the departure of offensive coordinator Rich Bartel just prior to Week 3. Ditto with the Express as Mettenberger continues to get more comfortable as the starter.
SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (2-2) at ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-2)
Opening line: Arizona -2.5, O/U 40
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
What has happened to the Hotshots? After looking like Orlando’s only competitor through the first two weeks, Arizona now finds itself in a battle to make the playoffs in the extremely tight West Division after losing each of the last two weeks to teams that hadn’t posted a win yet. Week 4 was particularly shocking as the Hotshots managed just 11 points at home to a Atlanta defense that had been torched in Weeks 1-3.
Arizona QB John Wolford threw for just 185 yards on 17-of-31 passing against last week and was perhaps still feeling the effects of the back injury he suffered in Week 3. One bright spot for the Hotshots was running back Jhurell Pressley, who galloped for 110 yards on just 14 carries. Expect him to be a big part of Arizona’s offense this week.
San Antonio evened its record at 2-2 after suffering back-to-back losses in Weeks 2 and 3. The big question is which Commanders defense will show up this week: The one from Weeks 1 and 4 that allowed six and 11 points, or the one in Weeks 2 and 3 that allowed 37 and 31 points. San Antonio seems more predictable on the other side of the ball — the Commanders are brutal on offense right now with just 23 points in their last two games.
Lean: Under 40. Arizona has gone Under in two of its three home games, while San Antonio has gone Under in both of its road games. Expect the Hotshots to rely more on the running game as Wolford regresses and the Commanders to continue their offensive woes.
WEEK 5 BEST BET
My best bet for Week 5 is the Salt Lake Stallions +6 for a few of reasons. First, San Diego's QB situation is now amongst the worst in the league without Nelson. Second, we're giving the Stallions offense a pass last week in the snow and hoping they return back to the form they were in when they put up 23 points in Week 3. Third, if there was ever a must-win in Week 5 of the AAF, this is it for the Stallions as they try to stay in the top-half of the jammed West Division standings.
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