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AAF Week 4 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
Brandon DuBreuil
Fans of the 0-3 Atlanta Legends have had enough of Matt Simms and are calling for former Georgia star Aaron Murray.
It's Week 4 from the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we're ready to dive into the betting odds and trends in hopes of making some money from a league where some pretty interesting trends are starting to develop.
Week 3 Betting Recap
Another ho-hum week for a betting standpoint. My leans went 2-2, hitting on the Under in the Memphis-Orlando game and on San Diego -2.5. I missed on Arizona -4.5 as the Hotshots lost their starting quarterback to injury and on Atlanta +6.5 as the Legends seem to enjoy suffering through the Matt Simms experiment.
My best bet of Over 43.5 in the San Antonio-San Diego game also fell short in what was probably the worst beat of the weekend for the second consecutive week. The two teams combined for 30 in the first half but then mustered just 12 in the second.
Season totals: Leans 4-4, Best Bets 0-2
AAF Betting Trends
The Under is 9-3.
Home teams are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread.
Home teams have gone 2-2 ATS in each of the last two weeks.
Favorites are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS.
No double-digit favorites have covered the spread yet.
SAN DIEGO FLEET (2-1) at MEMPHIS EXPRESS (0-3)
Opening line: San Diego -6.5, O/U 41.5
TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, B/R Live
San Diego pushed itself into the title conversation with its dominating win over San Antonio last Sunday night and its championship odds fell to 5/1. The Fleet now head to the road after two home games and QB Philip Nelson makes his first road start.
Memphis has hope and energy after coach Mike Singletary finally benched Christian Hackenberg and brought on Zach Mettenberger after halftime in Week 3. The former LSU standout threw for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 9-of-12 passing as the Express outscored the Apollos 17-12 in the second half.
Lean: Under 41.5. Both teams have played all three of their games Under the total. San Diego hits the road for the first time since Week 1 and, as mentioned above, Nelson makes his first road start. Memphis' offense looked much better under Mettenberger, but the Fleet have an underrated defense that is giving up just 12.7 points per game.
ORLANDO APOLLOS (3-0) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (1-2)
Opening line: Orlando -4.5, O/U 44.5
TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Orlando is still the unquestioned top team in the AAF but it did show signs of being beatable as Memphis put up an unexpectedly tough fight. Garrett Gilbert is the No.1 QB in the league and has 198 more passing yards than the next closest at the position. The Apollos take to the road for the second time this season after winning in San Antonio 37-29 in Week 2.
Salt Lake’s win last week was a pivotal moment in its season. Quarterback Josh Woodrum showed he deserves to be the starter, going 22-for-31 for 178 yards and a touchdown in the 23-15 win over Arizona. Running backs Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver each had rushing touchdowns as the Stallions had 31 rushing attempts.
Lean: Salt Lake +4.5. Orlando should be a popular public play this weekend but let's remember that the Apollos are still living in a hotel in Jacksonville and bussing to Georgia to practice every day because of the worker's compensation rule that doesn't cover pro athletes in Florida. They are basically always on the road, which should start to wear on them after a while. Other reasons I like Salt Lake is the altitude (the Stallions have been at home for two straight weeks while Orlando makes its first trip to Utah) and the weather (Orlando has played all of its games in Florida or indoors and Saturday night looks wet and cold in Salt Lake).
SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (1-2) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (3-0)
Opening line: Birmingham -7.5, O/U 39.5
TV: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Here we have a team on the rise against a team falling fast. San Antonio looked to have one of the top defenses in the league after Week 1 but has given up 68 points in the last two weeks. Offensively, the Commanders scored eight points on their first offensive play of the game last week but then only managed a field goal for the rest of the game. Quarterback Logan Woodside threw two picks and now has the worst quarterback rating and completion rate in the league. Backup Marquise Williams got some snaps last week and could be the starter before we know it.
Birmingham doesn’t play exciting football but the Iron are undefeated, though it should be noted that their wins have come over Memphis, Salt Lake, and Atlanta, who have combined for a grand total of one win. There’s no doubting that the defense is legitimate (21 points against in three games), however, and Trent Richardson is very good at converting goal-line opportunities (six touchdowns despite just 2.5 yards per carry).
Lean: Under 39.5. Before the lines came out, I told myself that if the line opened at 40 or more I'd be taking the Under and, well, it's close enough. As mentioned above, San Antonio seems to be in a freefall after a nice Week 1 and now travel east to Birmingham after having played (and putting up just 11 points) in San Diego last Sunday night. The Iron defense is giving up just seven points per game and, although it was against weaker competition, San Antonio seems to fit that description as well. One other factor: If Woodside gets pulled, which is a definite possibility, Williams loves to run which should keep the clock ticking.
ATLANTA LEGENDS (0-3) at ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-1)
Opening line: Arizona -12.5, O/U 41.5
TV: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Atlanta is 0-3 and has been outscored 92-30. Quarterback Matt Simms is third in the league in passing yards with 614 but has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions and Legends fans were chanting for backup (and former Georgia star) Aaron Murray towards the end of Week 3’s home loss to Birmingham.
One thing to note is that Atlanta’s quarterbacks coach and play-caller Rich Bartel resigned just before the Week 3 loss and this likely had an effect on their offensive performance. The Legends have now lost Brad Childress, Michael Vick, and Bartel as coaches already this season.
For Arizona, it’s all about whether quarterback John Wolford plays and he looks on track to do so after looking great at practice on Wednesday. He left last week’s game with a back strain and if for some reason he can't go, Trevor Knight will likely get the call — he went 8-for-17 for 95 yards in relief last week.
Lean: Over 41.5 — assuming Wolford is starting. I'm giving Atlanta a bit of a pass for last week's performance after learning about Bartel's resignation just before the weekend. I expect them to put up around 18 points. I also love that Arizona returns home after a two-week hiatus to Sun Devil Stadium where they scored 38 in Week 1 against Salt Lake.
WEEK 4 BEST BET
For our Week 4 Best Bet we head to Salt Lake for the Under 44.5 in the Apollos-Stallions game. I'm starting to sound like a broken record here with my third Under pick of the weekend but Unders are winning at a 75 percent clip. In addition to the reasons I lean Salt Lake 4.5 above, here are a couple more. Orlando scored 37 in its first road game this season but that was in a dome. This one is outside at night and there is snow and freezing rain in the forecast. The Apollos also showed that maybe they want to be a running team last week as they even had Gilbert rush seven times for 43 yards. Ditto with Salt Lake and its 31 rushing attempts.
Brandon DuBreuil
Fans of the 0-3 Atlanta Legends have had enough of Matt Simms and are calling for former Georgia star Aaron Murray.
It's Week 4 from the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we're ready to dive into the betting odds and trends in hopes of making some money from a league where some pretty interesting trends are starting to develop.
Week 3 Betting Recap
Another ho-hum week for a betting standpoint. My leans went 2-2, hitting on the Under in the Memphis-Orlando game and on San Diego -2.5. I missed on Arizona -4.5 as the Hotshots lost their starting quarterback to injury and on Atlanta +6.5 as the Legends seem to enjoy suffering through the Matt Simms experiment.
My best bet of Over 43.5 in the San Antonio-San Diego game also fell short in what was probably the worst beat of the weekend for the second consecutive week. The two teams combined for 30 in the first half but then mustered just 12 in the second.
Season totals: Leans 4-4, Best Bets 0-2
AAF Betting Trends
The Under is 9-3.
Home teams are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread.
Home teams have gone 2-2 ATS in each of the last two weeks.
Favorites are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS.
No double-digit favorites have covered the spread yet.
SAN DIEGO FLEET (2-1) at MEMPHIS EXPRESS (0-3)
Opening line: San Diego -6.5, O/U 41.5
TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, B/R Live
San Diego pushed itself into the title conversation with its dominating win over San Antonio last Sunday night and its championship odds fell to 5/1. The Fleet now head to the road after two home games and QB Philip Nelson makes his first road start.
Memphis has hope and energy after coach Mike Singletary finally benched Christian Hackenberg and brought on Zach Mettenberger after halftime in Week 3. The former LSU standout threw for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 9-of-12 passing as the Express outscored the Apollos 17-12 in the second half.
Lean: Under 41.5. Both teams have played all three of their games Under the total. San Diego hits the road for the first time since Week 1 and, as mentioned above, Nelson makes his first road start. Memphis' offense looked much better under Mettenberger, but the Fleet have an underrated defense that is giving up just 12.7 points per game.
ORLANDO APOLLOS (3-0) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (1-2)
Opening line: Orlando -4.5, O/U 44.5
TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Orlando is still the unquestioned top team in the AAF but it did show signs of being beatable as Memphis put up an unexpectedly tough fight. Garrett Gilbert is the No.1 QB in the league and has 198 more passing yards than the next closest at the position. The Apollos take to the road for the second time this season after winning in San Antonio 37-29 in Week 2.
Salt Lake’s win last week was a pivotal moment in its season. Quarterback Josh Woodrum showed he deserves to be the starter, going 22-for-31 for 178 yards and a touchdown in the 23-15 win over Arizona. Running backs Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver each had rushing touchdowns as the Stallions had 31 rushing attempts.
Lean: Salt Lake +4.5. Orlando should be a popular public play this weekend but let's remember that the Apollos are still living in a hotel in Jacksonville and bussing to Georgia to practice every day because of the worker's compensation rule that doesn't cover pro athletes in Florida. They are basically always on the road, which should start to wear on them after a while. Other reasons I like Salt Lake is the altitude (the Stallions have been at home for two straight weeks while Orlando makes its first trip to Utah) and the weather (Orlando has played all of its games in Florida or indoors and Saturday night looks wet and cold in Salt Lake).
SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (1-2) at BIRMINGHAM IRON (3-0)
Opening line: Birmingham -7.5, O/U 39.5
TV: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Here we have a team on the rise against a team falling fast. San Antonio looked to have one of the top defenses in the league after Week 1 but has given up 68 points in the last two weeks. Offensively, the Commanders scored eight points on their first offensive play of the game last week but then only managed a field goal for the rest of the game. Quarterback Logan Woodside threw two picks and now has the worst quarterback rating and completion rate in the league. Backup Marquise Williams got some snaps last week and could be the starter before we know it.
Birmingham doesn’t play exciting football but the Iron are undefeated, though it should be noted that their wins have come over Memphis, Salt Lake, and Atlanta, who have combined for a grand total of one win. There’s no doubting that the defense is legitimate (21 points against in three games), however, and Trent Richardson is very good at converting goal-line opportunities (six touchdowns despite just 2.5 yards per carry).
Lean: Under 39.5. Before the lines came out, I told myself that if the line opened at 40 or more I'd be taking the Under and, well, it's close enough. As mentioned above, San Antonio seems to be in a freefall after a nice Week 1 and now travel east to Birmingham after having played (and putting up just 11 points) in San Diego last Sunday night. The Iron defense is giving up just seven points per game and, although it was against weaker competition, San Antonio seems to fit that description as well. One other factor: If Woodside gets pulled, which is a definite possibility, Williams loves to run which should keep the clock ticking.
ATLANTA LEGENDS (0-3) at ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-1)
Opening line: Arizona -12.5, O/U 41.5
TV: Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Atlanta is 0-3 and has been outscored 92-30. Quarterback Matt Simms is third in the league in passing yards with 614 but has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions and Legends fans were chanting for backup (and former Georgia star) Aaron Murray towards the end of Week 3’s home loss to Birmingham.
One thing to note is that Atlanta’s quarterbacks coach and play-caller Rich Bartel resigned just before the Week 3 loss and this likely had an effect on their offensive performance. The Legends have now lost Brad Childress, Michael Vick, and Bartel as coaches already this season.
For Arizona, it’s all about whether quarterback John Wolford plays and he looks on track to do so after looking great at practice on Wednesday. He left last week’s game with a back strain and if for some reason he can't go, Trevor Knight will likely get the call — he went 8-for-17 for 95 yards in relief last week.
Lean: Over 41.5 — assuming Wolford is starting. I'm giving Atlanta a bit of a pass for last week's performance after learning about Bartel's resignation just before the weekend. I expect them to put up around 18 points. I also love that Arizona returns home after a two-week hiatus to Sun Devil Stadium where they scored 38 in Week 1 against Salt Lake.
WEEK 4 BEST BET
For our Week 4 Best Bet we head to Salt Lake for the Under 44.5 in the Apollos-Stallions game. I'm starting to sound like a broken record here with my third Under pick of the weekend but Unders are winning at a 75 percent clip. In addition to the reasons I lean Salt Lake 4.5 above, here are a couple more. Orlando scored 37 in its first road game this season but that was in a dome. This one is outside at night and there is snow and freezing rain in the forecast. The Apollos also showed that maybe they want to be a running team last week as they even had Gilbert rush seven times for 43 yards. Ditto with Salt Lake and its 31 rushing attempts.
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