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**Udog** · 02-21-2019, 10:45 AM

AAF Week 3 preview, odds, picks and a best bet
Brandon DuBreuil

Orlando cornerback Keith Reaser (29) intercepts a pass in their win over San Antonio last Sunday.

The biggest news from the Alliance of American Football (AAF) this week came on Tuesday when it was revealed that Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon made a $250 million investment into the league which may have saved the league as it was reported that the AAF almost didn’t make payroll last Friday. Dundon is now the league’s chairman as we move into Week 3.

Week 2 Betting Recap

My leans from last week’s AAF betting preview went 2-2. One of those losses came in recommending Arizona at the opening line of -11.5, though if you follow me on Twitter you would have seen I gave out an extra play of Memphis +16 as the line ballooned.

My best bet from Week 2 looked so good for most of the game as the Commanders led by as many as 12 in the third quarter before losing by eight and not covering.

Season total (one unit for leans and two units for best bet): 2-4

AAF Betting Trends

The Under has hit in six of eight games.
Home teams are 6-2 straight up.
Home teams are 6-2 against the spread.

Week 3 Odds and Leans

ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-0) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (0-2)

Opening line: Arizona -4.5, O/U 44

TV: 3 p.m. ET, B/R Live

Our first rematch of the season after Arizona handled Salt Lake 38-22 in Week 1, where Hotshots quarterback John Wolford threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns.

If you exclude the first half of last week’s game at Memphis, Arizona belongs in the conversation with Orlando for best offense in the AAF. The Hotshots were shut out in the first half of last week’s comeback win over Memphis but have 58 points in the three other halves they’ve played this season.

The Stallions rebounded defensively in Week 2, holding Birmingham to 12 points — though they did cough up a 9-0 halftime lead. The Stallions now play their first home game of the season at Rice-Eccles Stadium (home of the Utah Utes) where the temperature is expected to hover around the freezing mark. Salt Lake is expected to have starting QB Josh Woodrum back after he missed Week 2 with an injury.

Lean: Arizona -4.5. I'm giving them a pass on the first half last week at Memphis. I'd actually like the Stallions more if they had any continuity at quarterback but I don't view Woodrum starting this week after missing last week a positive.

MEMPHIS EXPRESS (0-2) at ORLANDO APOLLOS (2-0)

Opening line: Orlando -15.5, O/U 45

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

This one has mismatch written all over it. The Apollos are the only team to have found offensive success in each of their two games, putting up 40 in the opener and then 37 last week. Steve Spurrier’s squad now gets to play its first home game at Spectrum Stadium — although a worker’s compensation rule has them practicing in Georgia all week — in what should be a fairly easy win. Apollos QB Garrett Gilbert leads the league in passing yards with 620.

The Express, meanwhile, are 0-2 through two home games and hit the road for the first time this season. They did manage to score 18 points last week after being shut out in Week 1, but the offense is still an issue, especially through the air where Memphis has just 160 net passing yards.

Lean: Under 45. I don't see Christian Hackenberg and the Express putting up enough points for this one to go over.

BIRMINGHAM IRON (2-0) at ATLANTA LEGENDS (0-2)

Opening line: Birmingham -6.5, O/U 38.5

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

Yes, it is only two games but the Legends have looked like a sad bunch and sit squarely at the bottom of the AAF power rankings. To be fair to Atlanta, however, it hasn’t been easy as the Legends played what looks like the best team in the league on the road in Week 1 (Orlando) and then traveled all the way west to play in the pouring rain last weekend. Perhaps a home game at Georgia State Stadium will get Atlanta’s season turned around.

Birmingham is 2-0 and hits the road for the first time this season. The Iron offense looked bad in Week 2, mustering just 216 total yards on 3.43 yards per play, but coach Tim Lewis seems content in having his defense win games for him.

Lean: Atlanta +6.5. It's all about home-field advantage here as home teams are 6-2 ATS and Birmingham plays on the road for the first time.

SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (1-1) at SAN DIEGO FLEET (1-1)

Opening line: San Diego -2.5, O/U 43.5

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network

Our second rematch of the season after San Antonio mustered a 15-6 win on opening night of the AAF two weeks ago. Both defenses looked great in the opener, with the Fleet grabbing two interceptions and the Commanders nabbing three picks and two fumbles.

Both offenses looked better in Week 2, with the Commanders putting up 29 points and 398 total yards against Orlando, and San Diego managing 22 points and 313 total yards in the pouring rain in San Diego. Fleet quarterback Philip Nelson looked better last week than Mike Bercovici did in Week 1 and Ja'Quan Gardner showed some explosiveness in the backfield, running for 104 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 carries.

Lean: San Diego -2.5. Two fairly even teams on paper through two games, but on Sunday night one team is home for the second week in a row while the other hits the road for the first time all season. Give me the home team at less than a field goal.

WEEK 3 BEST BET

My best bet for Week 3 is the Over 43.5 in the San Antonio and San Diego game on Sunday night. The two teams combined for just 21 points in Week 1 but that was because of turnovers, with the Commanders committing two and the Fleet five. Both teams actually moved the ball well in Week 1, with San Antonio averaging 4.9 yards per play and San Diego 5.2. The San Antonio game easily went Over last week as the Commanders and Apollos combined for 66 points. The San Diego game last week went Under but the weather was a huge factor and the Fleet still managed 24 points in the pouring rain The forecast for Sunday in San Diego is partly cloudy with a high of 62 and a low of 47 — perfect weather for points.

**Udog** · 02-25-2019, 11:35 AM

AAF Betting Stats following Week 3:

Favorites: 11-1 Straight Up & 8-4 Against The Spread
Home Teams: 9-3 Straight Up & 8-4 Against The Spread
Over/Under: 3-9

**Udog** · 02-25-2019, 01:06 PM

AAF Week 3 betting recap, takeaways, and a Week 4 betting preview: Unders make money
Brandon DuBreuil

Birmingham Iron running back Trent Richardson found the end zone 3 times in Week 3.

We are three weeks deep into the inaugural season of the Alliance of American Football (AAF) and we’re starting to learn a few things. There are two good teams in the East (and two really bad ones), the West is wide open, quarterbacks are crucial, and Unders make money.

AAF Week 3 Scores

Arizona Hotshots 15 at Salt Lake Stallions 23

Salt Lake covers as a home underdog and the game goes Under.

Memphis Express 17 at Orlando Apollos 21

Memphis covers as a road underdog and the game goes Under.

Birmingham Iron 28 at Atlanta Legends 12

Birmingham covers as a road favorite and the game goes Over.

San Antonio Commanders 11 at San Diego Fleet 31

San Diego covers as a home favorite and the game goes Under.

Week 3 Betting Takeaways

Under still rules

Three of the four games this past weekend fell short of the total, bring the season total to nine Unders to just three Overs. If you’ve been blindly betting the Under in the AAF, you’ve made some seriously good coin in just three weeks. From a team standpoint, both Memphis and San Diego have played all three of their games Under the total, while every other team has gone Under in two of their three games.

The home-field factor

For the second straight week, home teams went 2-2 against the spread, meaning home teams are now 8-4 ATS on the season. Two teams played their first home games of the season this past weekend, with the Stallions covering at home and the pathetic Legends getting crushed (and not covering).

Quarterbacks are important

Sure, quarterbacks are important at all levels of football but they may be even more valuable in a development league such as the AAF. We saw it first hand this weekend when Arizona quarterback John Wolford went out in the third quarter with a back injury. The Hotshots’ offense stalled with Trevor Knight under center.

We also saw it when Zach Mettenberger (finally) replaced Christian Hackenberg in Memphis. He wasn’t able to complete the comeback but did go 9-for-12 for 120 yards and two touchdowns in the second half and he gives hope for the Express’ offense moving forward. Now if only Atlanta would take notice and get Matt Simms off the field...

Bad beats are still a thing

There were plenty of bad beats in Week 2, especially for those who had bet underdogs, and although Week 3 was a bit cleaner it still featured a tough break for Over bettors in the Sunday nighter. San Diego and San Antonio had combined for 30 points in the first half but then mustered just 12 in the second half, leaving the total 1.5 points short. (And yes, I’m bitter that for the second straight week my best bet got hit by the worst bad beat of the weekend!)

The AAF lines for Week 4 likely won’t be released until Wednesday, but I’ll take my weekly shot at predicting the Week 4 lines and totals.

Orlando at Salt Lake (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)

Projected line: Orlando -3, O/U 44

San Diego at Memphis (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Projected line: San Diego -3, O/U 43.5

San Antonio at Birmingham (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET)

Projected line: Birmingham -6, O/U 41

Atlanta at Arizona (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)

Projected line: Arizona -12, O/U 43

AAF Standings

Eastern Conference

Birmingham Iron 3-0
Orlando Apollos 3-0
Atlanta Legends 0-3
Memphis Express 0-3

Western Conference

Arizona Hotshots 2-1
San Diego Fleet 2-1
San Antonio Commanders 1-2
Salt Lake Stallions 1-2

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AAF Week 3

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