Announcement

**Udog** · 01-22-2019, 01:58 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 3

New England @ LA Rams

Game 101-102
February 3, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
142.098
LA Rams
140.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 2 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2 1/2); Under

NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 3

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) vs. LA RAMS (15 - 3) - 2/3/2019, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 193-239 ATS (-69.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 193-239 ATS (-69.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-102 ATS (-44.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Super Bowl

As a Ram fan since 6 years old (long, long time ago), I cannot make an objective prediction on this game. Here are my random thoughts on Sunday’s Super Bowl:

— Underdogs won five of the last seven Super Bowls.
— Underdogs are 12-5 vs spread in last 17 Super Bowls
— Belichick is 5-3 in Super Bowls, all of which were decided by 8 or less points.
— Rams were last in a Super Bowl 17 years ago; they’re 1-2 in Super Bowls.
— Since 1990, this is first time both #2-seeds made the Super Bowl.

— Rams won their last four games, scoring 33.8 ppg.
— LA is 7-2 on road this season, losing at New Orleans/Chicago.
— Rams are 3-1 in domes this season, splitting pair in New Orleans.
— LA is 2-2 this season in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Rams were 4-0 vs AFC this season, playing AFC West.

— New England is 4-5 away from Foxboro this season; they’re 2-2 in games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Patriots won their last four games, scoring 38-41-37 points in last three; under is 5-4 in their road games. NE lost its only game in a dome, 26-10 at Detroit in Week 3.
— Eight of Patriots’ last 11 games stayed under the total.
— New England was 3-1 vs NFC teams this year; they played the NFC North.

— New England won its last five games with the Rams; last Ram win was 24-17 during 2001 season, a year that ended with those teams meeting in the Super Bowl.
— Rams’ WR Brandin Cooks played for New England LY; CB Aqib Talib played for the Patriots in 2012-13.
— Sean McVay is in his 2nd year as a head coach; Belichick has won five Super Bowls.
— It is a domed stadium in Atlanta but roof can open; they haven’t announced yet whether roof will be open.

— AFC won four of last six Super Bowls.
— Weird stat: In Belichick’s eight Super Bowls, Patriots scored total of 3 points in first quarter.
— Since 2010, NFL head coaches are 6-27 in their first game against Belichick, 3-1 in last four.

— Here are the scores of the eight Super Bowls with Brady/Belichick in them:
SB36— NE 20, Rams 17
SB38— NE 27, Carolina 24
SB39— NE 24, Philadelphia 21
SB42— Giants 17, NE 14
SB46— Giants 21, NE 17
SB49— NE 28, Seattle 24
SB51- NE 34, Atlanta 28 OT
SB52— Philadelphia 41, NE 33

NFL

Super Bowl

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Trend Report
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New England Patriots
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games on the road
New England is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
New England is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
LA Rams is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against New England
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
LA Rams is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing New England

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**Udog** · 01-22-2019, 01:58 PM

Super Bowl History

The Super Bowl is the championship for the National Football League (NFL), which is America’s superior football league. The game pits the winner of two conferences, the National Football Conference (NFC) against the American Football Conference (AFC) in the finale. This is an annual event that started in 1967 and is usually played on the first Sunday in February.

The NFC owns a 27-25 edge over the AFC in the first 52 Super Bowl matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers all have five.

The Super Bowl is the most gambled-on sporting event in the United States. Favorites have gone 35-17 straight up and 28-20-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 27-24. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The point-spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976.

In the 2014-15 Super Bowl between New England and Seattle, the closing consensus line was pick 'em, which was the first in the NFL finale. The Patriots rallied for a 28-24 victory over the Seahawks.

Oddsmakers were on the money with their numbers in two Super Bowls, which produced pushes or ties. Those matchups took place in 1997 and 2000.

The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII. The 13th installment saw the Steelers open as 4 ½-point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 ½-points with early action on the Cowboys. Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 ½-points and Steelers backers won on the closing line. To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.

**Udog** · 01-22-2019, 01:59 PM

Super Bowl line on the move, MVP long shots, and today's NFL odds and analysis
Brandon DuBreuil

The odds for Super Bowl LIII have seen some serious line movement since hitting the board Sunday night, what to do with Todd Gurley's props and a quick look at the MVP odds for the Big Game. We bring you the need-to-know betting notes to help crack the odds for Super Bowl LIII.

LINE ON THE MOVE

There has been some serious line movement since oddsmakers released the opening odds for Super Bowl LIII on Sunday night. Most sportsbooks opened the line at Rams -1 but bettors — sharp and public alike — have piled on the Patriots, moving the line all the way to New England -2.5 (-115) at most shops.

Now the question bettors are asking themselves is when is the right time to make their Super Bowl bet to get the best number. Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, joined Joe Fortenbaugh on The Sharp 600 yesterday and said that he did not anticipate the line going all the way to Patriots -3. Salmons also mentioned that if it does hit Pats -3, it will likely be because sharps help push the line there, so they could then make a larger wager on Rams +3. He also said he thinks the number closes at Pats -2.5.

If you’re a Patriots backer and are looking to make a wager, you’ve probably missed the best number already. The two options now would be to grab it at -2.5 in case it does hit -3, or to wait and hope that Rams money floods in when the betting really gets going in the 48 hours prior to kick off. Rams backers, +2.5 might be the best line you’ll see, though if you’re feeling lucky you could hold out and hope for +3.

WHAT’S UP WITH GURLEY?

One of the biggest storylines we’ll be following over the next two weeks is the situation in L.A.’s backfield, where it seems C.J. Anderson is the feature back. Anderson handled 16 carries for 44 yards in the NFC Championship Game while also hauling in one catch for five yards. Todd Gurley, on the other hand, handled the ball just five times (four rushes and one reception) for 13 yards, though he did score a touchdown.

The Rams continue to insist that Gurley is healthy. He seemed ready to go on the sideline against the Saints and continued to try and stay loose by stretching and riding the bike while he watched Anderson handle the bulk of the carries.

Quarterback Jared Goff weighed in on the situation in his on-air post-game interview with Fox’s Chris Myers. “You just have to feed off what we are doing, and C.J. was running the ball well. I expect Todd to have a hell of a game in the Super Bowl though,” Goff said.

Gurley himself had something to say about it as well. “I didn't play good. I didn't deserve to be in there. CJ was in there. He did his thing. Everybody held me down. We all held each other, and we just got it done. We just got it done. Thank you, Lord. Thank you," he told ESPN’s Josina Anderson.

At this point, there’s no reason to think that Gurley is still injured. Instead, it seems that the Rams are just going with the hot hand. We’ll be monitoring the situation and diving into player props more deeply once they’re released later in the week.

MVP ODDS

One of the first prop bets to be released for Super Bowl LIII was the MVP market and it’s no surprise that quarterbacks Tom Brady (-110) and Jared Goff (+200) are leading the way. It comes as no surprise as the two men under center lead the way as quarterbacks have won 29 of the 53 awards and nine of the last 12. Brady has won the award in four of the Pats’ five Super Bowl wins (with Deion Branch winning the other).

If you’re more interested in placing a wager on a higher-risk, higher-reward option, here are some notables:

Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald (+1600) has better odds than any wide receiver in the game and the same odds as teammate running backs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson.

The next two Patriots on the list are running backs, with Sony Michel (+1800) getting slightly better odds than James White (+2000).

Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Julian Edelman all share the best odds amongst wide receivers (+4000), while tight end Rob Gronkowski (+5000) is next on the pass-catchers list.

If, for some reason, you think the game will be decided by field goals and only field goals, then place some cash on the kickers: Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein pays out a nice +12500 while Stephen Gostkowski is a cool +15000.

The smartest bets would be, of course, to take the quarterback from the team that you think will win the game. But there could be some value in Julian Edelman. The last wide receiver to win the award was Santonio Holmes in Super Bowl XLIII when he put up a line of 9-131-1 that included the game-winning catch with 35 seconds remaining in regulation. But Brady’s safety blanket has been phenomenal in the postseason with receiving lines of 9-151 and 7-96 and another big line on Feb. 3 could see him taking home the MVP award (and giving bettors a huge payout in the process).

**Udog** · 01-22-2019, 02:00 PM

If early action is any indication of Super Bowl success, then this is your best bet

The Super Bowl pointspread is different from any other NFL spread bettors will tangle with over the course of the football season.

Not only is it the most publicly-influenced line but there is a two-week ramp-up to the Big Game, with the bulk of the betting action coming in during the final 48 hours before kickoff.

However, while the late money from the masses will move the odds, those looking for an inside edge when betting the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and we’ve seen just that with the line movement in the Super Bowl LIII betting markets.

The Los Angeles Rams opened as 1-point favorites versus the New England Patriots, but early money poured in on the Pats and flipped this spread as far as New England -2.5. Is that early money on the right side? Possibly, considering how that sharp play has fared in recent Super Bowls.

Here is a look back at the last 11 years of Super Bowl betting, where the early money went and whether it was on the right side or not of the outcome.

Super Bowl XLIII: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Opening spread: Patriots -13
Closing spread: Patriots -11.5

The sharps and the public both backed the right side with the Giants winning outright 17-14. They were paying +400 on the moneyline as well.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Opening spread: Steelers -6.5
Closing spread: Steelers -6.5

This matchup was booked pretty evenly but the early money did come in on the underdog and the spread dropped to 5.5 before the Steelers money came in the second week.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

Opening spread: Colts -3.5
Closing spread: Colts -4.5

The Colts got bet up to as high as 6-point chalk before the game closed with the 4.5-point spread. The early money was on the losing side here but the action was reported as light. While digging through the archives it seems like the sharps were backing the Saints late in the second week.

Early money: Loss

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening spread: Packers -2
Closing spread: Packers -3

The Packers were a Wild Card entry into the postseason but their impressive march through the NFC playoffs had most football fans thinking they were a better team than the Steelers. Bettors backed the Pack early and they proved to be right with Aaron Rodgers holding up the championship belt.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Opening spread: Patriots -3.5
Closing spread: Patriots -3

Here’s another similar spot here for the books. The early money came in on the underdog Giants who won the game outright over the Patriots again.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLVII: San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Opening spread: 49ers -4
Closing spread: 49ers -4.5

The numbers above might say the bettors were on the wrong side, but the line history at Pinnacle shows the first move was in favor of the underdog Ravens. Pinnacle dropped to 49ers -3.5 two days after opening with San Franciso giving four points.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

Opening spread: Pick
Closing spread: Seahawks -1.5

The early action wasn’t uniform across the industry because of the variations of opening lines. Some shops opened with the Broncos favored by two points others listed the game as a pick. Either way, the smart and early money was on the Seahawks, who crushed Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Opening spread: Patriots -1
Closing spread: Patriots -1

The action was split for the full two-week buildup to the Big Game for Super Bowl XLIX. The spread as a near pick’em and that’s how the bettors saw the game.

Early money: Draw

Super Bowl L: Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

Opening spread: Panthers -3.5
Closing spread: Panthers -4.5

The Panthers almost went undefeated on their way to their second Super Bowl appearance as a franchise, but they didn’t show up in the big game and bettors paid a price at the window.

Early money: Loss

Super Bowl LI: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Opening spread: Patriots -3
Closing spread: Patriots -3

The early money came in on the Patriots but not enough to move the spread. The books received two-way action but the first at the window were betting chalk.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl LII: New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opening spread: Patriots -5.5
Closing spread: Patriots -4.5

All the early action was on the underdog Eagles despite the fact they entered the Big Game with starting quarterback Carson Wentz sidelined due to injury. Million dollar bets poured in on Philly and sportsbooks toyed with the idea of dropping the spread to 3.5 before the Pats money showed up on the final weekend.

Early money: Win
Final score: Early money 8-2-1

**Udog** · 01-22-2019, 02:01 PM

Five things you didn't know about betting on the Super Bowl
Jason Logan

Super Bowl is one of the rare times on the sports calendar that everyone – gambler or not – knows the pointspread.

Big Game betting has massive mainstream appeal, as stories flood the news wires about the Super Bowl odds and who Las Vegas thinks will win it all – or at least cover the spread. But in that fleeting moment of understanding also comes plenty of misunderstanding.

Even seasoned Vegas veterans may not know these five facts about Super Bowl betting:

Public has the power

The Super Bowl is a unique market in itself and unlike the entire regular season and even the preceding playoff games, the line movement is not dictated by the opinions of respected big-time bettors – also known as sharps or wiseguys – but rather by the general public.

Super Bowl is the most popular game of the year, and the $10, $100 and $1,000 wagers from your Average Joe stacks up a lot quicker than action from sharp bettors.

Generally, books will be quicker to adjust a spread or total (in order to help balance action on either side) if wiseguys make a strong opinion on one particular bet. However, with two weeks to take wagers and knowing the betting public will hammer this game with both fists come Super Bowl weekend, sportsbooks are far less likely to react to early sharp money and move the Super Bowl odds.

What doesn’t happen in Vegas

One of the most common misconceptions about Super Bowl betting – and sports betting in general – is that you can wager on just about anything in Las Vegas.

And Super Bowl prop betting has become a very popular talking point in recent years, thanks to crazy wagers like betting on the halftime show, national anthem and color of the Gatorade bath. Well, good luck finding those wagers at any sportsbook inside Nevada state lines (or Jersey or those other legal states).

The Nevada State Gaming Control Board is very sticky about what you can and can’t bet on, and unless that prop is defined in the box score of the game or decided on by a legitimate source, books can’t offer odds on it. Heck, they just offered Super Bowl MVP odds for the first time three years ago.

If you see odds on things like “How many times will Donald Trump tweet during the game?” or “Will which song will Maroon 5 open with?”, those are coming from online sportsbooks overseas or offshore. They aren’t limited to strict regulations and basically grade these props on their own accord. So winning bets on the length of the national anthem, for example, could vary from book to book depending on how they timed it and graded it.

Those so-called "Vegas odds" you love to talk about so much are more like "Costa Rica odds".

You aren’t betting $1 million on the coin flip

We’ve all heard the wild wagering stories of the high roller who wagered $1 million on some whacky-ass prop. It didn’t happen.

Sportsbooks protect themselves from losses when it comes to unpredictable props – that’s how they keep the lights on. They don’t take risks. Things like the coin flip prop have tight limits, even for a game as big as the Super Bowl.

Betting “Heads” or “Tails” comes with a cost, with books setting the juice (price of making a bet) as high as -130. That means you must wager $1.30 for every dollar you want to win. And that bet size maxes out anywhere from $500 to $2,000, depending on where you wager. So even if you hit your coin flip play with a max bet, you’re only looking at a payout of $1,538.46.

$1 million bets are rare – even for Super Bowl

While we’re on the topic of $1 million wagers, these aren’t as common as you think. Every so often a whale wonders into the Super Bowl betting handle, dropping a cool milli on the Big Game. But books don’t have to accept that bet, and some don’t want to.

The stars have to align, somewhat, to place a $1 million wager. You can’t just walk into a sportsbook with a briefcase full of money and lay the Patriots. These $1 million bets are often called in ahead of time or arranged through a casino host.

The sportsbook must have a handle (total pool of money bet on the game) that can balance that type of action, and they must also get approval from their respective “powers that be” to take it. The person placing the bet is also vetted, and is often a known casino player with good standing and accounts with that property. There are always rumblings of $1 million bets coming in during Super Bowl, but most of the time these wagers never show up. That said, MGM sportsbooks took a $3 million wager on the Eagles for Super Bowl LII.

As for putting $1 million on the Super Bowl at online books, there are a small handful of shops that will take that type of money and even fewer that would admit it – as to avoid showing up on the radar of headhunting anti-gambling government task forces.

Frantic 48 hours

The Super Bowl odds have two weeks to draw action but like a slacking college student cramming for exams, most bettors wait until the last minute.

Sportsbooks estimate that about 98 percent of the total betting handle on the Big Game comes in the final 48 hours before kickoff – Saturday and Sunday. As game buzz reaches a fever pitch and tourists pile into Las Vegas, sportsbooks in the Silver State are slammed during Super Bowl weekend and online books are constantly dealing with a flood of web traffic.

There was $158.6 million bet on Super Bowl LII in Nevada last year and an estimated $5 billion in wagers on the NFL finale in the United States alone, through online shops and illegal bookie operations. That means that in that final two days, roughly $4.9 billion was wagered on the Super Bowl.

That’s $102,083,333 per hour.

**Udog** · 01-22-2019, 02:01 PM

Six costly mistakes NFL fans make when betting the Super Bowl odds
Jason Logan

Betting the Big Game?

Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.

But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their god damn mind.

There’s two weeks before the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots showdown in Atlanta on February 3. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.

You bet too early/too late

If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl LIII, you’ve seen the Patriots go off at anything from +1 to -1.5, after a remarkable comeback and overtime win against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

If you’re a Pats backer and you didn’t get down on that +1 spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Los Angeles -1 and watched free points pass you by.

First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 98 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.

Patriots fans, you may want to grab the -1 or -1.5 on your beloved team now. Books took early money on Belichick's boys and New England is the most public team in all of football - maybe in all of sports betting - so it may not get any better than giving this short spread. Rams backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get a something bigger before showtime.

There has been some very aggressive line movement in recent Super Bowls. So hold tight, you might get what you want. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.

Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.

Prop contradictions

The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Los Angeles to cover, then who and what will get it there.

If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.

The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.

If you think Tom Brady lights the Rams up for massive gains, then don’t load up on the Over in the Patriots’ rushing yard props.

Believe L.A. will slow the pace and eat up time of possession with a run-heavy playbook? You may want to shy away from Brandin Cooks' Over on total receptions prop and instead think Over for how many carries Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson will have.

Didn’t pay attention to prices

One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.

Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites in any sport, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.

On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.

Chasing

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.

Halftime lines hold value, as do in-game live betting odds, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.

But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.

As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager or live bet placed in sheer panic.

Too much media

Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.

If your knee-jerk reaction was “Patriots -1 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.

Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish. Sharps will be on the Patriots one day and the Rams the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.

And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a field-goal spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.

Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Game of Thrones spoilers. I'm only on Season 2, damn it!

You sucked all the fun out of it

If you’re a fan of the Patriots or Rams – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until September.

Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.

And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Tom Brady Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.

Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show than the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.

**Udog** · 01-23-2019, 02:46 PM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

Backfield committee in New England

The Rams aren’t the only ones with backfield questions leading up to the Super Bowl. Heading into the AFC Championship Game, it seemed fairly straightforward as Sony Michel was handling the early-down work and James White was the third-down/receiving back. But then Rex Burkhead made his presence known against the Chiefs, scoring a touchdown with 39 seconds remaining in regulation and then, of course, the 2-yard game-winning score in overtime.

In the end, the three Patriots backs received similar playing time, with Michel getting 34 snaps, White 33, and Burkhead 30. Michel dominated touches with 29 carries for 113 yards and two scores. Burkhead had 12 carries and four receptions, while White had six rushes and four catches.

What was really interesting was that it was Burkhead on the field when it mattered most: Late in the fourth in the two-minute drill with the Pats down four, and then again in overtime. This could have been because Michel and White were tired. The Patriots wound up playing 97 offensive snaps, which was the highest number they’ve played since 2001. Having Burkhead out there late in the game meant a fresh running back was on the field against a defensive side that was gassed. Michel’s 29 carries were a season-high — his next highest was 25 back in Week 4 — and New England’s coaching staff obviously didn’t want to push it into the 30s.

Digging into the snap-count numbers above makes it pretty clear why Burkhead suddenly became the No. 1 back late against the Chiefs. Michel is still the top dog and we’re expecting him to get the vast majority of the carries early on in the Super Bowl. We’ll dig into his rushing yards total as the Super Bowl gets closer but, for now, backing Michel to go Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns is a smart bet.

Pats controlling the clock

One thing that the playoffs have taught us is that the Patriots want to play slowly and methodically, at least early on. In the Divisional Round, they took the opening kickoff and ran 14 plays for 83 yards in 7:11 for a touchdown. In the AFC Championship Game, they one-upped themselves by taking 8:05 off the clock during a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive.

These marathon drives have left the opposing offenses standing around for a long time to begin the games and this approach has worked — the Chargers mustered just seven first-half points in the Divisional Round, while the Chiefs were shut out last week.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been slow starters so far in the playoffs, scoring three points in the first quarter against Dallas in the Divisional Round before being shut out in the first quarter last week at New Orleans. L.A. has rebounded with points in the second quarter, but the first-half total still hit Under 27.5 in both.

The first-half total for Super Bowl LIII opened at 28 and has ticked down to 27.5 at some sportsbooks, so it might be the right time to make this bet if you’re backing the above analysis: Take the Under 27.5 for the first-half total.

Rams bettors might want to wait

If you’re looking to bet on the Rams for Super Bowl LIII, you might want to hold off as it’s looking more and more likely that the line will move to Rams +3. In fact, it happened yesterday at Las Vegas’ South Point sportsbook:

Well, what happened is that Rams money flooded in at +3 and 17 minutes later the South Point had moved the line back to Patriots -2.5.

Is getting that extra half-point that important? Well, yes. Since 2002, the year the Patriots began this dynasty with a Super Bowl win over the St. Louis Rams, the margin of victory in the Super Bowl has been three on five occasions — by far the most common margin of victory. In fact, the Patriots were involved in four of the five games where the margin landed right on three.

There is, of course, two ways to look at the above info: If you’re looking to back the Rams, it might be smart to wait — but make sure you pounce on Rams +3 when you see it as it might not last long. If you’re planning to bet on New England, now might be the time to place your wager before the line moves to Patriots -3.

**Udog** · 01-24-2019, 01:54 PM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

PATS’ EARLY SUCCESS

Yesterday, we talked at length about what New England has been doing early in games during this year’s playoffs: Taking the kickoff and putting together ridiculously long touchdown drives. In the Divisional Round, the Pats took 7:11 off the clock on their first drive and last week they drove for 8:05 before punching it in. In both of these games, New England led by seven points after the first quarter.

In betting the first quarter, the coin toss obviously comes into play. If a team gets the ball first, it’s going to likely have more possessions (and therefore more chances to score) than the opponent. Most teams defer when they win the coin toss, as the Rams did last week, but Bill Belichick bucked that trend two weeks ago when he elected to receive the ball against the Chargers (last week, the Chargers won and chose to defer). In fact, it seems oddsmakers are even expecting the Patriots to elect to receive the ball if they win the coin toss as they’ve set odds even at whether a team will receive or defer if they win the coin toss.

So, if the Rams are expected to defer and if the Patriots are expected to receive the ball, then there’s a pretty good chance that New England will start the game with the ball. That would also give them a pretty good chance of getting at least two possessions to L.A.’s one in the first quarter. Yes, the Patriots struggle historically in the first quarter in the Super Bowl with just three total points in eight games. But we prefer the recent trend where the Pats have won the first quarter in both playoff games this season. In fact, the Patriots’ moneyline in the first quarter is 6-0-2 in New England’s last eight games. The Rams, meanwhile, have lost the first quarter in both playoff games this season. We like the idea of the Patriots jumping out to an early lead in Super Bowl LIII and we’re taking New England’s first-quarter moneyline.

GOING BACK TO THE WOODS

Admittedly, we had a bad week in trying to predict the Rams’ wide receivers. We missed the Over for Robert Woods’ receiving yards total of 75.5 and the Under for Brandin Cooks receiving yards total of 70.5 as Woods had a 6-33 line and Cooks went off for 7-107. We weren’t completely wrong in our pre-game analysis, however, as Woods actually had 10 targets to Cooks’ eight. But Woods had an average of 5.5 yards per reception and a long of just 16 yards, while Cooks’ average was 15.3 with a long of 36.

We talked at length last week about how Bill Belichick usually finds a way to shut down the opponent’s top offensive threat(s). That was in full effect last week as the Patriots held Travis Kelce to three catches for 23 yards and Tyreek Hill to one catch for 42 yards. But who will Belichick focus on this week? Well, it would make sense that his attention will first go to Cooks, especially since he played in New England last season. The Patriots know Cooks’ moves and tendencies, and likely how to shut him down.

Another factor to consider is that Rams coach Sean McVay will likely want to get his young quarterback comfortable early on in what is obviously the biggest game of his career. Throwing downfield to Cooks is not how you get your quarterback in a rhythm — but throwing safe, short completions to Woods is. This happened in the NFC Championship Game as three of Goff’s first four passes were targeted to Woods. We see this happening again early in the Super Bowl and we’re taking the Over 5.5 for Woods’ receptions total.

AVOIDING AARON

Aaron Donald is, along with Khalil Mack, one of the most valuable defensive players in all of football. The Rams’ interior stud led the league with a franchise-record 20.5 sacks this season for an NFL-record -183.5 yards. Not surprisingly, he also led the NFL in tackles for a loss with 25 and quarterback hits with 41. But here’s the angle we’re taking from a betting point of view: Donald only had 59 total tackles on the season for an average of 3.7 per game. His tackle total likely stays low for two reasons: Interior defensive linemen don’t usually put up huge tackle numbers and teams likely run as far away from Donald as possible whenever they can.

The other key factor we must refer to once again is the fact that Belichick does not let the opponent’s top players beat him. We’ve talked at length about this over the past couple of weeks and it likely won’t be the last time. Belichick, Tom Brady, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will spend hours coming up with a plan on how to negate Donald. They’ll run away from him, double team him, and just generally confuse him with their pass protection. It was clear that both the Cowboys and Saints employed similar game plans in the NFC playoffs as Donald had just two total tackles (and no sacks) in each of the past two games.

Another factor to consider is that New England’s offensive line is simply on fire. Brady is the only quarterback to have not been sacked yet this postseason. In fact, in 46 pass attempts last week against the Chiefs, Brady was only pressured five times. Two weeks ago, he was only hit twice on 44 dropbacks. The O-line has also been opening gaping holes for the running game with Patriots players not named Brady running for 333 yards on 79 attempts for an average of 4.2 yards per attempt. New England’s offensive line is on fire and we’re expecting it to limit Donald at Super Bowl LIII, much like the Cowboys and Saints have been able to limit him so far in the playoffs. Take the Under 3.5 on his total tackles and assists total.

**Udog** · 01-26-2019, 11:13 AM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

We've made no secret about backing James White props in the playoffs and the Super Bowl will be no different. We take a look at which ones we like the most, plus Greg Zeurlein is nursing a foot injury and a breakdown of some fun props. We bring you the must-read betting notes to help you crack the odds for the Big Game.

WHITE-OUT IN ATLANTA

It is time for what has become our weekly “back the Over on James White” blurb. We got winners in each of the last two weeks by backing the Over for his receiving yards total as he went 15-97 two weeks ago and 4-49 last week. His lines are set at 5.5 receptions and 49.5 receiving yards and we’re backing the Over for both for a couple of reasons.

First, look at what Alvin Kamara did to the Rams out of the backfield last week, putting up 11 receptions on 13 targets for 96 yards. The Rams — although they struggled against the run during the regular season with a rushing DVOA rank of 28 — have successfully shut down the run in the playoffs, limiting Ezekiel Elliott to 47 rushing yards on 20 attempts and the Mark Ingram/Kamara combination to 46 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are going to watch tape of the last two weeks and Kamara catching the ball out of the backfield is going to jump out.

Second, let’s look at how White has been used so far in the playoffs. Two weeks ago against a very tough Chargers run defense, they targeted him early and often out of the backfield. Last week, against a very soft Chiefs run defense, they had him in the game on third down to make it look like a pass was coming and then used him as a runner to pick up multiple first downs. The Rams have shown recently that they can stop the run, so it would make sense that White is used more like he was against the Chargers.

Finally, let’s look at what happened in the last two Super Bowls. In last year’s loss to Philadelphia, White had just two catches for 21 yards. Two years ago in the win over Atlanta, he had 14 catches for 110 yards. Sure, they were playing from behind against the Falcons, but it would be safe to say that Belichick and McDaniels regret how they deployed White in last year’s title game.

We lean towards the Over 5.5 for his receptions total and really like the Over 49.5 for his receiving yards total.

ZUERLEIN’S HURT FOOT

News broke on Thursday that Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein strained his plant foot during the NFC Championship Game last weekend. He did, however, go on to kick the game-winning 57-yard field goal, so the injury obviously isn’t too serious. Coach Sean McVay said Zuerlein is expected to be fine for Super Bowl LIII.

There are a ton of different kicking props available for the Super Bowl and Covers analyst (??) Steve Paul took a deep dive into the numbers yesterday to find out where the value is and highlight his favorites.

We’re going to keep it simple, however, and go with the longest field-goal made to be Over 45.5 yards. We got a winner with this bet in the NFC Championship Game and we’re expecting to get another this week with two top-notch kickers and an indoor stadium. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski is 3-for-3 so far this postseason, including one from 47 yards, while Zuerlein is 6-of-7, with his only miss coming from 50-plus yards. With a spread of -2.5, this should be a close game, which should increase the chances of both teams attempting long field goals. Oppositely, in a blowout, the team playing from behind will be trying to only score touchdowns and the team playing from ahead will be more likely to punt as not to give up field position. We’re taking the Over 45.5 yards for the longest field goal made.

FUN PROPS

To conclude today’s article, we’re going to have a look at some of the fun prop bets listed at various sportsbooks around the world and give some recent trends on them but not necessarily a lean either way, as some of these are just too random to properly analyze statistically.

Anthem Length

Atlanta-native Gladys Knight will be singing this year’s national anthem and the Over/Under for how long it takes her to sing it has been set at 1:47. The last time a Super Bowl national anthem went Under that number was back at Super Bowl XLVI. Each of the last six Super Bowl national anthems have gone Over 1:54. For a deeper anthem dive, check out our How to Bet on the National Anthem in the Super Bowl.

Coin Toss

Here’s one that oddsmakers are extremely confident in as the line has been set at -2500 for heads and +800 for tails. Anytime you see a heavy split like that, it’s a pretty good tell that oddsmakers know what’s coming. The Patriots are considered the visiting team this year, which means they’ll call the coin toss. Their winning call before overtime against the Chiefs last week was heads and oddsmakers are obviously expecting them to do the same again at Super Bowl LIII.

Gatorade Shower

Another popular fun prop for the Super Bowl is to guess the color of the liquid that will be dumped onto the winning coach — otherwise known as the Gatorade shower or Gatorade bath. Bill Belichick has only been hit with the Gatorade shower in two of his five Super Bowl wins, getting hit with clear liquid at Super Bowl XXXIX and blue at Super Bowl XLIX. Last year, Doug Pederson got drenched in yellow liquid.

**Udog** · 01-26-2019, 11:22 PM

53 Super Betting Angles
VI News

Super Bowl LIII between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will be the 53rd installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 3, 2019 from Atlanta, Georgia.

Before you start handicapping the matchup and prop wagers, you should check 53 betting angles and trends that our staff have uncovered for this year’s Super Bowl.

1 – In the first 50 Super Bowls, only one was decided by exactly one point – Super Bowl XXV in in 1991 when the Giants defeated the Bills 17-16 from Tampa, Florida as seven-point underdogs.

2 - The city of Los Angeles is seeking its second-ever Super Bowl title. The last L.A.-based team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy was the Raiders back in Super Bowl XVIII in 1984 over the Redskins.

3 – Six Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. New England has participated in four Super Bowls decided by three points or less, going 3-1 and that includes their win SB36 win over the St. Louis Rams.

4 – The NFC West is looking to become the fourth division since realignment in 2002 to have two Super Bowl winners.

5 – The Patriots have won five straight meetings against the Rams, with the last outcome taking place in the 2016 regular season from Foxboro. New England captured a 26-10 win as a 13-point home favorite.

6 – The amount of times New England has allowed three or more passing touchdowns in a game this season. The Patriots won four of those six games, but yielded at least three touchdown passes in both playoff wins over the Chargers and Chiefs.

7 – Jared Goff (California) will be looking to become the seventh quarterback from a Pac-12 school to win a Super Bowl. The other six are Nick Foles (Arizona), Aaron Rodgers (California), John Elway (Stanford), Troy Aikman (UCLA), Mark Rypien (Washington State), and Jim Plunkett (Stanford).

8 – The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The team has averaged 34.8 PPG during this run, which helped the ‘over’ go 5-3.

9 – The Patriots are playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era. This is the eighth Super Bowl that New England will be taking the field in a stadium that is either a dome or has a retractable roof.

10 – There have been 10 defensive players named Super Bowl Most Valuable Player. The most recent winner was Broncos linebacker Von Miller, who captured the award in Super Bowl 50.

11 - There have been 11 situations where a head coach was making his debut in the Super Bowl versus a head coach with Super Bowl experience. This took place last season as Philadelphia's Doug Pederson bested New England's Bill Belichick. In the last four times in this scenario, the rookie coach has come out victorious three times.

12 - Of the 103 quarterbacks who have started a Super Bowl, 26 of them have worn number 12 (Tom Brady). Those signal callers have gone 14-12 overall and that is the most wins by quarterbacks wearing 12 in SB history.

13 – Tom Brady is facing an NFC West opponent for the 13th time in his career. Brady compiled a 7-5 record in the first 12 games, while never losing to an NFC West team in the Super Bowl.

14 – The amount of games (both regular season and postseason) Rams wide receiver Robert Woods hauled in each at least five receptions.

15 – In 15 instances since 2013, the Patriots have lost outright as a favorite away from Gillette Stadium. Amazingly, New England dropped five games this season as road chalk.

16 – Since 1988, the AFC has been favored in the Super Bowl sixteen times. Underdogs from the NFC have put together a solid 10-5 ATS record in the last 15 instances.

17 - In the first 52 Super Bowls, the most common points scored by a losing team was 17 and 10, which happened eight times apiece.

18 – This is the 18th game the Rams have played away from L.A. Coliseum under head coach Sean McVay. Los Angeles has put together a solid 14-3 ledger in the first 17 highway contests.

19 – Rams QB Jared Goff has tossed 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions in 10 career games against AFC opponents, which has led to an 8-2 record.

20 - The most combined penalties called in a Super Bowl was 20, which happened twice in 52 games. Dallas and Denver did so in Super Bowl XII and the Patriots and Panthers followed suit in SBXXXVIII.

21 – The fewest combined points ever scored in a Super Bowl was 21, which took place in Super Bowl VII when the Dolphins defeated the Redskins 14-7.

22 - New England averaged 22.8 first downs per game in the regular season, while Los Angeles led the league with 25.1 per game. In the postseason, the Patriots have improved to 33 first downs per game and the Rams (24.5) have held steady.

23 – The Patriots averaged 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only behind Oakland (25/12).

24 – In Super Bowl 31, the Patriots led the Packers 14-10 after the first quarter and that’s the most combined points (24) scored in the first 15 minutes of the finale.

25 - In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread and the ‘under’ went 13-11 in those games. In the last 27, the underdogs have produced a 14-10-2 ATS mark. Super Bowl 49 between the Patriots and Seahawks closed at a pick 'em.

26 - The longest time that elapsed in a Super Bowl before either team scored was 26 minutes, which occurred in SB38 between New England and Carolina. Despite the slow start, the pair combined 24 at the end of the first half and a SB record 37 in the final 15 minutes as the Patriots won 32-29 over the Panthers.

27 - The NFC owns a 27-25 all-time edge in Super Bowls but the conference hasn't captured back-to-back wins in the finale since the Giants and Packers did so in 2011 and 2012.

28 - Only once in Super Bowl history has a team scored exactly 28 points in a victory. The Patriots accomplished this feat in Super Bowl XLIX four years ago in a 28-24 triumph over the Seahawks.

29 – QB Tom Brady owns a 29-10 all-time record in the playoffs and that includes a 5-3 record in the Super Bowl.

30 – The Rams faced nine playoff teams this season and averaged 30.8 points per game. In six of those games, L.A. tallied at least 30 points, even though only two of those efforts came away from the Coliseum.

31 – New England played two playoff teams on the road this season and it allowed 31 points in both games. They won both those contests, a 38-31 decision over the Bears in Week 7 and a 37-31 victory over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

32 – Los Angeles averaged 32.4 PPG this season, which was the second ranked scoring offense in the league.

33 – The highest point total scored by a losing team in a Super Bowl was 33, which happened in last year’s decision when the Patriots lost to the Eagles, 41-33. Prior to that result, the next highest result scored by the losing team was 31 points.

34 - During New England's current three-year Super Bowl run, the Patriots have scored at least 34 points six times in the playoffs. New England owns a perfect 6-0 record in those games.

35 – The most points ever scored in a quarter of a Super Bowl was 35 by the Redskins in their 42-10 win against Denver in SBXXII.

36 - Rams running back Todd Gurley needs 36 receiving yards to cash his game prop at William Hill. Gurley racked up at least 36 receiving yards eight times this season, but has only three catches for six yards in the playoffs.

37 – The most points the Rams have allowed in a playoff victory came in the 1999 divisional round against the Vikings in a 49-37 blowout.

38 - Jared Goff attempted 38 passes or more only five times this season. Goff needs to attempt at least 38 passes to cash the 'over' on his game prop, according to William Hill as all five of these games came past the midway point of the season.

39 – In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.

40 - The L.A. Rams had 40 passing plays of 25 yards or more, which was ranked second in the league. Kansas City (52) had the most big passing plays. New England was ranked 13th with 33 completions of 25-plus yards.

41 - Six times in Super Bowl history a team has scored at least 41 points. The Eagles pulled off this feat last season in a 41-33 victory over the Patriots. It was the first time in Super Bowl history that a team scored at least 41 points and didn't win by double-digits.

42 – Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski's longest catch of the season was 42 yards against the Chiefs back in Week 6. Since then, Gronk has compiled only one catch of more than 25 yards.

43 – The most completions in a Super Bowl was 43, which is held by QB Tom Brady in Super Bowl 51 between New England and Atlanta. What’s more impressive is that Brady completed 22 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Falcons.

44 - Washington Redskins running back John Riggins wore number 44 and he’s the only Super Bowl MVP that had a jersey listed in the forties. The most common range for SB MVP jersey numbers falls between 10 and 19.

45 – The most points New England has scored in the postseason under the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady regime was 45, which happened twice. In the 2011 playoffs, the Patriots blasted Denver 45-10. In this year’s AFC Championship, they dumped the Colts 45-7.

46 – The Buccaneers outscored the Raiders 28-18 in the second-half in Super Bowl 37 and the combined 46 points were the most scored in a second-half of a finale.

47 - The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have posted a prop on the Longest Made Field Goal in SB53 at 47.5. Rams kicker Gerg Zuerlein has hit 4-of-6 field goals over 50 yards while Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots was just 2-of-5 from that distance.

48 - There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.

49 – San Francisco captured a 49-26 victory over San Diego in Super Bowl 29, which was the only time a team scored exactly seven touchdowns and extra points in a game. The 75 combined points was also the most ever scored in a Super Bowl.

50 – Patriots running back Sony Michel has rushed for at least 50 yards in eight consecutive games, including back-to-back 100+ yard efforts in the playoffs. The SuperBook sent out his rushing total yards prop listed at 76.6 while William Hill opened 79.5 yards.

51 – The Rams allowed 51 points to the Chiefs in Week 11 at home yet still won the game with 54 points. It was the first time in NFL history that both teams scored at least 50 points.

52 - William Hill posted a total of 52.5 receiving yards on New England running back James White in their Super Bowl 53 props. White averaged 56 receiving yards per game this season and he surpassed that average in the playoffs with 73 YPG versus the Chargers and Chiefs. In Super Bowl 51 versus the Falcons, White finished with 14 catches for 110 yards but he only had 2 catches for 21 yards against Eagles last February in SB52.

53 – The most passing attempts made by Tom Brady in a regulation playoff win in his career was 53, coming in last season's divisional victory over Tennessee. Brady completed 35 passes for 337 yards and three touchdowns.

**Udog** · 01-28-2019, 11:35 PM

Hot & Not Report

Week of January 28th

After dealing with the college basketball landscape a week ago with this piece, it's back to the NFL as the Super Bowl is now less than a week away. The fact that there is two weeks between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl means there is plenty of time for bettors to absorb all sorts of different information, betting angles, trends, and the great people at VegasInsider.com even put together this piece for the big game.

The things you hear/read in the two weeks leading up to the big game can range from quality statistical information, to quality historical information, to the downright absurd. I mean, the first seven days of Super Bowl “Week” this year have been filled with New England Patriots love as things like “the Patriots can't lose two Super Bowls in a row,” and “Nick Saban and Bill Belichick have alternated championship wins the past the four years” are getting thrown out there. The latter of those is factually true, but bettors will cling to anything and everything to support their own argument for why a certain team – in the case of the past seven days, New England – will win.

But before we all go handing Belichick and Brady another Super Bowl title, I've always been one that likes to stick up for the little guy, so here are some scenarios – some absurd, some statistical – that actually favor the Los Angeles Rams to come away hoisting the Lombardi Sunday evening.

In the end it's up to you to decide what theories, trends, or historical data you want to weigh more, but after listening to so much love for the Patriots the past seven days, here's something for Rams fans/backers to sink their teeth into.

Who's Hot – Playoff Point PPG numbers are the key

Since NFL realignment (2002-03), the Super Bowl team that scored fewer points per game during their playoff run are 11-5 straight up in the Super Bowl

Without question there will be plenty of angles floating around this week mentioning that teams that allowed fewer rush yards, or fewer points, or scored more points during the regular season are X-X in the Super Bowl, but why is it that almost always they fail to shrink the sample size down enough to focus on the actual playoff run the two teams went on to get to this point. Sure, small sample sizes are the enemy of statistical proclamations, but current form is always something people never forget to bring up, and given how high the stakes are in the playoffs, shouldn't current form get some more time in the sun?

Well, after going back and looking at all the past Super Bowl winners since the 2002-03 season, something really interesting popped up. The team in the Super Bowl that had scored fewer points per game on average have had plenty of success in becoming World Champions. That's held true the past three seasons with the Eagles scoring 26.5 points per game in their two playoff games a year ago – compared to New England's 29.5 PPG – and if it wasn't for Seattle head coach Pete Carroll's highly questionable decision to throw it from the 1-yard line in Super Bowl 49 to cough up that game to New England, this trend would hold true for each of the past seven eventual Super Bowl champions.

Now the caveat there, is that of the five times where the team averaging more points during their playoff run came into this game and won, two of them were done by Tom Brady and the Patriots (vs Philadelphia in 2005, and Seattle in 2015), but an 11-5 SU record clocks in at 68% and that's hard to ignore. With the Rams coming into this game averaging 28 points per game, and New England averaging 39 points per game during the respective two wins for each side, this historical trend does favor LA.

After all, there is some truth to the old adage that “defense wins championships” because these teams that have put up fewer points en route to a Super Bowl appearance wouldn't have gotten there (albeit the Rams appearance this year is under MUCH different scrutiny) without their defense stepping up and not forcing the offense to do all the heavy lifting. That's because....

The last eight Super Bowl winners have all allowed fewer points per game during that season's playoff run than their Super Bowl opponent.

This relates to the discussion above, as it focuses solely on the two or three playoff games each Super Bowl combatant won that year to get to this game. This year will be the first time since prior to realignment that both teams come into the Super Bowl having allowed more than 20 points per game on average, but low and behold, the team that's allowed the fewer points on average in the playoffs has come out as the champion the past eight Super Bowls.

This year we've got the Rams allowing 22.5 PPG in their two playoff wins, and New England coming in allowing 29.5 PPG, so here is another “current form” indicator that's decidedly in favor of the Rams. In past Belichick/Brady Super Bowl defeats, it's been pressure from the middle of the defense that tends to get the Patirots out of sync the most (NYG X2, Philadelphia), and LA's front with the likes of Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and others, are more than capable of having similar success.

Who's Not – The Andy Reid Curse

NFL Playoff teams that beat Andy Reid during their playoff run before reaching the Super Bowl (2-10 in terms of winning the Super Bowl that year)

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has long had a reputation of his teams coming up short in the playoffs, a reputation that started with three straight NFC Championship game defeats back in the early 2000's. Reid's teams have only gotten to the big game once (Lost to New England in Feb 2005), but in a rare oddity, it's Reid's foes that use him as a stepping stone to a playoff run, that tend to not find championship immortality at the end of the year.

Of Reid's 12 career playoff losses as a HC prior to the Super Bowl - Reid has 14 career playoff defeats but one came in the Super Bowl itself, and the other was last week - only twice has the team that's gotten past an Andy Reid team gone on to win the Super Bowl: The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers.

That's a record of 2-10 SU in terms of winning a championship in the same season, and we will see if the Patriots become the 11th team in that scenario to fall short of the ultimate prize.

Narrow that focus even tighter to teams that got by Reid's squads in a Conference Championship game like New England did, and the record for going on and winning the Super Bowl for those teams is a disastrous 1-4 SU. It was Tampa Bay as the only team to reach the mountain top after knocking off Reid the game prior, and even that result can come with an asterisk in this scenario, since it was Jon Gruden's Bucs team going up against his former Raiders team that still ran Gruden's offensive schemes, that Gruden himself knew like the back of his hand.

Heck, even the Patriots themselves were the beneficiaries of this trend in the game that started their dynasty. It was the St Louis Rams that beat Reid's Eagles back in the NFC Championship game in January 2002 prior to ultimately losing as big favorites to New England in the Super Bowl the next time they took the field.

So who knows, things in this world tend to find ways to go full circle, and with the Patriots being on the wrong end of this “Andy Reid curse” this time around, and the Rams organization on the right side of it, maybe it's this Rams team that sparks their own Goff-McVay dynasty with a win later on this week.

After all, it was the Rams franchise who were going for their 2nd Super Bowl title in three years back then, and wouldn't you know it, that's exactly what New England is looking to do this year.

**Udog** · 01-29-2019, 12:01 PM

Advantage - Patriots
Tony Mejia

If it weren’t for Atlanta’s collapse in Super Bowl LI and Seattle’s ill-fated decision to throw from the 1-yard line on second down in Super Bowl XLIX, New England would be on a streak of five consecutive losses in the NFL’s premier event.

Of course, pro football is filled with ifs and buts. All the Patriots have to do to is look at who is lining up against them for evidence of that, facing the Los Angeles Rams instead of the New Orleans Saints due to incompetent officiating. As things stand, the Patriots are 2-3 in their last five Super Bowl appearances dating back to February 3, 2008.

On the 11th anniversary of seeing their dreams of a perfect season dashed thanks to an upset suffered at the hands of the New York Giants, the Pats will take the field favored once again. 41-year-old Tom Brady will look to win an unprecedented fifth Super Bowl MVP trophy while leading his team to a sixth championship, which would tie the Steelers for most all-time and cement Brady as the best football player ever since he’d be the only one with six rings.

Bill Belichick is adding to his legacy by making his eighth appearance. His five wins are already the most in league history by a head coach.

Obviously, Belichick and Brady are the reasons the Patriots have ben so successful over the last two decades and will key Sunday’s efforts as they look to take down the Rams. The duo teamed up to pull off an upset of the Chiefs in Kansas City in order to secure their spot in Atlanta, winning the AFC Championship in overtime after Brady bailed out Belichick’s tired defense by leading the offense on a 13-play, 75-yard drive following victory in the ever-important coin toss. Patrick Mahomes II never even touched the ball in the extra session after leading the Chiefs to a 24-point fourth-quarter outburst, allowing Belichick to enjoy the handiwork of his godsend of a quarterback instead of stressing over how to get a stop that eluded him throughout the final 15 minutes of regulation.

Kansas City scored on the first play of the fourth and then put together scores on drives that took 10 seconds, 1:29 and 31 ticks. Rams head coach Sean McVay will surely glean something from the Chiefs offensive game plan and has the weapons to drive the ball down the field. Look for L.A. to spread out the Pats defense, allowing Todd Gurley room to catch the ball out of the backfield and giving Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods plenty of space to work underneath. Both are exceptionally fast and precise route-runners, so it will be on Jared Goff to deliver the ball as accurately as you know Brady will in order to keep this competitive.

New England’s defense has dominated early in this postseason, holding the Chargers to just seven points while Brady are rookie RB Sony Michel helped build a 35-7 halftime edge. The defense stood tall against Andy Reid’s scripted plays and shut out the Chiefs in bitter cold two weeks ago, helping the Patriots take a 14-0 lead to the break.

New England’s secondary gave up 374 passing yards against the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, but it nevertheless trusts its experience. Corner Stephon Gilmore will be starting his second straight title game while tag-team partner Jason McCourty will be making his first appearance. Safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung have been around for years, so Belichick will lean on them to prevent big plays and keep the Rams’ speedy receiving threats from getting behind them.

Linebacker Kyle Van Noy has been spectacular down the stretch and will be tasked with keeping Gurley in check in what is probably the most crucial matchup in this contest as far as the Patriots are concerned. Belichick is counting on his speed helping to neutralize a running back who hasn’t been himself through this entire playoff run after missing the final few weeks of the regular season. New England is heavily invested in keeping him from finding his rhythm.

The same can be said about Goff, who started slowly in New Orleans last week before warming up and delivering the upset with help from kicker Greg Zuerlein. Throwing him off early will be essential since the Patriots didn’t record a sack of Nick Foles in Super Bowl LII. They’re counting on Trey Flowers’ experience to help deliver some pressure.

Brady was only sacked once by the Eagles and threw for 505 yards in the loss last season, setting an NFL postseason record. He proved last week that he doesn’t need a lead to feel comfortable, not that that was ever in doubt. Against the Falcons, he threw for 466 yards, so he’s thrown for 971 yards in his last two appearances in the “Big Game.” He’s completed 71 of 110 passes and thrown just one interception in the last two Super Bowls and comes into this one the all-time leader in completions (235), attempts (357), yards (2,576) and passing touchdowns (18). When you consider Goff hadn’t even won a playoff game until earlier this month, the difference in experience between Sunday’s starting quarterbacks is cartoonish.

Goff said his earliest memory of watching football centers around Brady and Super Bowl XXXVII back he when he was a 9-year-old.

That’s why it was so surprising that the Rams opened as a 1-point favorite at most sportsbooks before betting quickly turned the Pats into ‘chalk’ as the spread has reached as high as a full field goal at some shops. The line at most books is 2.5 points as of Tuesday morning, which is entirely because of Brady and Belichick.

They’re trusted, known commodities. While experience isn’t the end-all, be-all, it’s nice to have that in your back pocket when investing on what’s always the most gambled-on single event of the calendar year, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see more money come in on the Patriots. If you’re willing to lay points, get in sooner than later. If you’re taking them with the underdog Rams, you’ll likely be best served waiting closer to kickoff.

In-game circumstances dictate most totals, but the Patriots have proven time and again that Brady is unflappable and immune to pressure from even championship-level defenses, so the ‘over’ has to be tempting, especially indoors. Even at a robust 56.5, both offenses can easily surpass that figure if conditions command a second-half shootout.

Belichick is going to utilize the first few drives to see how his unit holds up against Goff and Gurley. If the results are poor, count on a more methodical approach relying on Michel and Rex Burkhead to try and work the clock and keep his defense off the field. Red-zone efficiency will also be a major factor since the Rams are very strong in that department.

Considering the Patriots have gotten to this point as healthy as they’ve been all season, losing only a couple of key contributors to attrition along the way, they’re well-equipped to move to 6-3 in Super Bowls in the Belichick/Brady era.

**Udog** · 01-29-2019, 11:06 PM

Advantage - Rams
Kevin Rogers

The Rams went through a solid run of Super Bowl appearances with the “Greatest Show on Turf” by reaching the Big Game in 1999 and 2001. Seventeen seasons and one cross-country move later, the Rams are back in the Super Bowl facing the team that broke their heart at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as the Patriots picked up a 20-17 upset as 14-point underdogs to begin the Tom Brady dynasty.

This time around, Los Angeles showcases a 33-year old head coach in Sean McVay and a third-year quarterback in Jared Goff looking to send the franchise to their second-ever Super Bowl title. The Rams put together an 11-5 record in McVay’s first season patrolling the sidelines in 2017, but Los Angeles was tripped up by Atlanta in the Wild Card round. However, L.A. proved it wasn’t a one-hit wonder by improving by two victories this season with a 13-3 mark to finish tied with New Orleans for the best record in the NFL.

We all saw how the final minutes of the NFC Championship unfolded with the missed pass interference penalty on the Rams that would have set up the Saints with a first and goal opportunity that would have allowed New Orleans to run the clock down for the game-winning field goal. New Orleans still took the lead, but Los Angeles eventually tied the game late in regulation and won in overtime, 26-23. The Rams cashed in their first underdog role of the season and will be receiving points for the second straight contest.

Now, onto why the Rams are the team to back in Super Bowl LIII on Sunday.

PATRIOT CLOSE GAMES

This is the ninth Super Bowl that the Patriots have played in since 2001, all with Brady and Bill Belichick running the show. New England has won five Super Bowls, as four of those wins are by four points or less, while the fifth championship came in the unlikely comeback victory over Atlanta two years ago by six points in overtime. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS as a Super Bowl favorite, but not all of those games saw New England laying huge wood. New England is 1-2 SU/ATS in the last three Super Bowls as a favorite of four points or less, including in last season’s 41-33 defeat to Philadelphia.

HIGHWAY TO SWELL

Under McVay, the Rams have won 14 of 17 games away from the L.A. Coliseum. Granted, two of those losses came this season at New Orleans and Chicago. In the 15-6 defeat to the Bears at Soldier Field in December, the Rams allowed one touchdown, while intercepting Mitchell Trubisky three times. Goff was picked off four time in the loss, marking only the second time in the last two seasons that the Rams have been held to single-digits.

Now to the good on the road. The Rams topped the 30-point mark in six of nine away contests this season, while Goff was intercepted six times in the other eight road games not including the Bears’ debacle. Los Angeles has compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, with two of those wins coming in the first four weeks of 2017. Since allowing 45 points to New Orleans in Week 9, the Rams have yielded 63 points in the past four road contests.

BALK AT CHALK

The Patriots were listed as a favorite away from Gillette Stadium in all eight regular season games. New England lost five of those contests outright, including defeats at Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee, Miami, and Pittsburgh. Not one of those teams made the playoffs, while the Patriots were limited to 10 points in three of those setbacks. In four of those games, New England allowed at least 31 points, which didn’t include the AFC Championship where the Patriots gave up 24 fourth quarter points to the Chiefs.

DON’T COUNT THEM OUT

Expert Joe Nelson checks in with several convincing points on backing Los Angeles, “The Rams will hear for two weeks that they didn’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl with the missed call late in the NFC Championship to provide extra fuel for this opportunity, but the box score painted a clear edge for Los Angeles with a 378-290 edge in yards in New Orleans. The Rams also showed resiliency battling back from a 13-0 deficit in the first quarter, holding the Saints to just 160 yards the rest of the game including overtime.”

“The Rams have marginal run defense numbers for the season, but in the postseason they held Dallas and New Orleans to 2.3 yards per rush each, surrendering a grand total of 98 rushing yards against a pair of strong rushing teams. The Rams also had to face the prolific Seattle rushing offense twice this season to skew the numbers in a 16-game sample. The Patriots have rushed the ball with great success in the playoffs, but it appears that success will come to an end in the Super Bowl as the Rams will likely aim to force Brady to throw just like the Eagles did last season in the Super Bowl,” Nelson notes.

GROUND CONTROL

Obviously Todd Gurley’s productivity will be a key factor on Sunday after totaling only 10 yards on four carries in the NFC Championship. Gurley posted MVP-type numbers this season by racking up over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. The Rams rushed for over 135 yards as a team in 10 games, including dropping 273 yards on the ground in the NFC divisional playoff win over the Cowboys. C.J. Anderson closed the season with three 100-yard rushing performances, including 123 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas.

TO MAJOR TOM

Nelson is back for some surprising notes on the four-time Super Bowl MVP, “Despite his all-time great status, Brady finished 12th in QB Rating this season which was four spots behind Goff. Brady finished with his worst QB Rating since 2014 this season and across the board his numbers were worse this season than in his past two Super Bowl seasons, including featuring the most turnovers he has had since 2013. He had two interceptions in the AFC Championship and had a game-sealing third interception last week until an offsides call brought the play back.”

BARKING DOGS

The public loves the favorite in the Super Bowl, but that hasn’t been the best play over the years. Underdogs own an 8-2 ATS mark in the past 10 Super Bowls (taking out Super Bowl XLIX which closed at a pick-em), while seven of those teams have won outright. The last seven AFC favorites have compiled a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS mark in Super Bowls since 2008, when the Patriots were upset by the Giants as 12-point chalk.

**Udog** · 01-30-2019, 12:08 PM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

RAMS CB TAKES JAB AT BRADY

"Age has definitely taken a toll. For him to still be doing it, that's a great compliment for him. But I think that he's definitely not the same quarterback he was," Robey-Coleman told Bleacher Report. "Movement. Speed. Velocity. Arm strength. He still can sling it, but he's not slinging it as much. Whatever he was doing — because of his age and all that — he's not doing as much of that anymore. He's still doing the same things; he's just not doing as much of it. And sometimes, it's not the sharpest. But it still gets done."

Robey-Coleman knows Brady well as he played the first four years of his career in Buffalo from 2013-16. But his comments are far from accurate as a quick look at Brady’s career stats doesn’t show much of a drop-off. In fact, his completion percentage and passer rating from the 2018 regular season were above his career averages. He’s also on fire in the playoffs with a 71.1 completion rate for 691 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.

If anything, Robey-Coleman’s comments are just going to fire up Brady, who has already taken on the “us against the world” mentality this season. Brady’s passing yards total for Sunday is currently set anywhere between 282.5 and 292.5, depending on which sportsbook you use. So far in the playoffs, he has thrown for 343 yards on 44 attempts against the Chargers and 348 on 46 attempts against the Chiefs.

Sure, the Pats might try to run the ball heavily against the Rams, but they also did that in their last two games, with 34 rushing attempts against the Chargers and 48 against the Chiefs. New England is just running a ton of plays on offense right now and that should continue Sunday. Take the Over for Brady’s passing total, especially if you can get it at 282.5.

PATS’ O-LINE DOMINATING

There was something else that Robey-Coleman said that caught our attention, as the Rams’ cornerback told Bleacher Report that he expects the Rams to be able to get to Brady “all over the place”. We’re taking this comment to mean that the Rams, or at least Robey-Coleman, think they can break through New England’s offensive line and put pressure on, and ultimately sack, Tom Brady.

The Rams have every right to feel confident in their defensive line that is led by game-changer Aaron Donald and his league-high 20.5 sacks. But the playoffs have been a different story as the Rams have just three sacks in two games, likely because their opponents have put a huge focus on ensuring Donald, Ndamukong Suh and co. don’t get to their quarterbacks.

Two more things to consider. First, remember the fact that Bill Belichick doesn’t let the opponent’s star players beat him. He’ll have a game plan in place to limit Donald. Second, the Pats’ O-line is simply on fire, as Brady is the only quarterback to not have been sacked in the postseason. Last week, we suggested taking the Under 3.5 on Donald’s total tackles and assists total and we’re going to double down on New England’s offensive line by taking the Under 1.5 for the numbers of sacks by the Rams (+119).

RETIREMENT TALK

There has been a lot of media play surrounding the possible retirement of three pillars of the New England dynasty: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Bill Belichick. In fact, some sportsbooks are even offering prop bets as to whether one (or more) will announce his retirement post-Super Bowl. But before you get tempted with the nice possible payout should one of them call it quits during the post-game news conference, let us warn you.

First, the announcement has to come during the broadcast for the bet to cash. It’s very unlikely for one of these three to make the announcement in the minutes that follow the game. Second, let’s look at some of the quotes from these three relating to retirement.

Brady is adamant that he’ll be playing next season:

“There’s zero [chance I retire after the Super Bowl],” Brady told reporters on Sunday. “I have said that for a long time. I feel like I am asked that a lot and I feel like I repeat the same answer, but no one wants to believe me.”

If you’re wondering, he has been saying the same thing all season, giving similar quips on Dec. 26th and then again Dec. 31st.

Gronkowski wasn’t quite as convincing but he’s still not retiring during the post-game show:

“As of right now, that’s one of the last things I’m thinking about,” Gronkowski told the media on Monday. “I love playing the game. … A few weeks down the road, you relax, you get some downtime, enjoyment time and you just see where you want to go with it.”

Gronkowski was also asked if he wants to play next season.

“That’s a tricky question,” he continued. “He’s just trying to get some answers over here, baby, but like I said, I don’t know, I haven’t done that sit-down yet. I gotta do that sit-down. About two weeks after.”

If you have to bet on one of the three, Belichick might be your best bet, but it still doesn’t sound likely. Remember that Belichick is letting Brian Flores go to Miami and word is that he’s replacing him with Greg Schiano. If Belichick was going to retire, it’s doubtful the Pats would let Flores walk.

Belichick didn’t address the issue at Super Bowl Opening Night on Monday, but he did say this on Jan. 18.

“We have a good setup here,” Belichick said. “[Robert Kraft has] been very supportive. He gives us great opportunity to go out and compete every week. We’ve done that. Hope we can continue that for a long time.”

The Yes for Brady to retire is paying out at +500, while Gronkowski is at +395 and Belichick +1600. The fact that they aren’t even offering a No bet should tell you all you need to know, and the above information just reaffirms: Save your coin and don’t bet on either of these three retiring after the game.

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